Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where fraud Watch never ends.
Speaker 2: It's a way of life.
Speaker 1: I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with.
Speaker 2: My friend Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 1: Yes, we will get to one of the main characters
Speaker 1: of fraud Watch all season long a little later with
Speaker 1: my picks.
Speaker 2: How are you?
Speaker 3: I'm good?
Speaker 4: How are you?
Speaker 2: It is great to see you as always.
Speaker 1: You know, the studio feels a little emptier this week
Speaker 1: because you know, you don't have my son, but he
Speaker 1: is part of the standings where if you're watching on
Speaker 1: the YouTube show, we can look at our records last
Speaker 1: week Cynthia and I, you know, struggle a little bit
Speaker 1: one and two. Walker's in first place now with an
Speaker 1: undefeated record on the season.
Speaker 4: Does he is he also like a crypto investor?
Speaker 1: Ah god, this is what happens if you if you
Speaker 1: have a child and they take your phone and they
Speaker 1: just start messing around with your phone and they selfies.
Speaker 2: Doesn't matter. We're gonna bounce back this week. Cynthia.
Speaker 4: What a lovely photo of you, by the way.
Speaker 2: Thank you twenty I's polling a.
Speaker 3: Smug one of you on game deview where you're like
Speaker 3: looking like like, but but this is this is actually
Speaker 3: a very nice photo.
Speaker 2: This is much better.
Speaker 1: And yeah, we went one and two last week, but
Speaker 1: we're up on the seasons rail, I'm a couple games
Speaker 1: ahead of you. You better be trying extra hard to
Speaker 1: make correct picks this week.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: I will start the picks off this week a little
Speaker 1: different than what I normally do.
Speaker 4: Let's hear it.
Speaker 1: It's a big spread. Oh, when I get to a team,
Speaker 1: I like, you don't know where I'm going. I'm going
Speaker 1: Steelers minus six and a half.
Speaker 2: You did, you know? I thought? So? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Well really okay, only because I love I love me
Speaker 1: some Jamis. Yeah, and it's tough to go against him. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the Browns just won this game a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 1: But when two teams play in the span of a
Speaker 1: few weeks, I definitely like one of those teams to
Speaker 1: even it up division game. Alex Heigsmith is back. This
Speaker 1: pass rush is like the Avengers. I don't think people
Speaker 1: understand how good Nick Herbig is. Like, he is one
Speaker 1: of the best pass rushers in the league right now,
Speaker 1: and he's on the same team as TJ.
Speaker 2: Watt.
Speaker 1: And now you add in Alex Heismith and Hayward is
Speaker 1: playing like an All Pro and that matchup on a
Speaker 1: short week for Cleveland. I always pay attention to the
Speaker 1: extra rest and then the back to back road games
Speaker 1: for Cleveland. So you're coming from Denver, you go back
Speaker 1: to Cleveland, You're back on the road again. The Steelers
Speaker 1: obviously need this game, and it's a big number. The number,
Speaker 1: to me, Cynthia, it's almost begging everyone to take the Browns.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling I could be wrong, but that
Speaker 1: the public is gonna be on the Browns in this
Speaker 1: game with that big a number at six and a half,
Speaker 1: and I'm not taking the bait here. I think the
Speaker 1: Browns defense is meh. That the numbers don't lie. It's
Speaker 1: an average defense. Everyone thinks it's a great defense. It's
Speaker 1: an average defense. And you're gonna be dropping Jamis back
Speaker 1: to pass probably forty to fifty times in this game. Again,
Speaker 1: it's the best pass rush I believe in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Because the Browns have no running game at all. I
Speaker 1: could even see the Browns winning this like leading this
Speaker 1: game in the second quarter and I'm sweating it out,
Speaker 1: but the turnovers will pile up, and I like like
Speaker 1: a nice thirty four to nine two type of win
Speaker 1: for the Steelers minus six and a half.
Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, I'm gonna do something that feels a little mean,
Speaker 3: but I don't care about me and I want to
Speaker 3: be right.
Speaker 4: Yes, I'm going to take Chicago in the points.
Speaker 1: Oh, I like that. That's one of my picks. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna join forces.
Speaker 4: Okay, good.
Speaker 3: I feel like it's a little mean because, like, so
Speaker 3: many bad things have happened to the Niners this season,
Speaker 3: so I kind of feel like I'm like piling it
Speaker 3: on them.
Speaker 2: But to slip it on its head, you're being nice
Speaker 2: to the Bears fans. I mean, so many things that
Speaker 2: happened to them for a decade straight fair.
Speaker 3: Fair but I mean, and I've seen North but yeah, no,
Speaker 3: I think I think that Number one, we've seen Caleb
Speaker 3: Williams be a lot better against the Blitz since Week eleven,
Speaker 3: which is when Thomas.
Speaker 4: Brown took over.
Speaker 3: We've seen the run game improve, We've seen a lot
Speaker 3: of great things there. And on the other side of things,
Speaker 3: things just like aren't getting better for the Niners. I mean,
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey now on IR same with Jordan Mason. Sure,
Speaker 3: of course Kyle Shanahan can pull like a rabbit out
Speaker 3: of his hat in terms of the run game, but like,
Speaker 3: what about all the other parts?
Speaker 1: Right, Isaac Garranda comes in there and maybe he'll be fine,
Speaker 1: but running behind Trent Williams isn't practicing.
Speaker 3: To be fair, Isaac Garendo could be like in buy
Speaker 3: ma geed in for fantasy, you could probably consider playing him,
Speaker 3: But other than that, I think it's fade fade away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they are at a point in the season where
Speaker 1: the numbers are still part of the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: team that used to be and that team doesn't exist anymore.
Speaker 1: And you didn't mention the reason I'm going for him.
Speaker 1: And this is first time in a couple weeks that
Speaker 1: we are joining forces because this was my number two
Speaker 1: pick on the day the Bears.
Speaker 2: It's the fired coach principle.
Speaker 1: I mean, I know we already had it happened once
Speaker 1: this season, Yeah.
Speaker 4: But like that was a last week, was like that
Speaker 4: was bad?
Speaker 3: What when the coach said that he kind of doubled
Speaker 3: down on everybody makes mistakes in life. Yes, so like
Speaker 3: doubling down being like, hey, it was the right decision
Speaker 3: like that's a wild thing to say, right, Like, it
Speaker 3: was clear I thought CBS made a mistake in the
Speaker 3: broadcast because I'm like, there's no way or like, you know,
Speaker 3: the graphics thing didn't hit and you know there's a
Speaker 3: lot of technology involved. No, no, no, no, CBS was on
Speaker 3: top of it. I retract my statement about the broadcasters.
Speaker 3: It was the coach. But to double down on that
Speaker 3: and the press are after that just shows you. I mean,
Speaker 3: if that's what he's willing to say publicly, what was
Speaker 3: it like in the actual Well.
Speaker 1: We have reporting that Jalen Johnson there at the cornerback
Speaker 1: for the Bears after Eberflus in the locker room, was
Speaker 1: trying to say, hey, we appreciate how hard you guys
Speaker 1: are going, like he started yelling at Eberflues. So we've
Speaker 1: already seen a tangible difference since Thomas Brown took over,
Speaker 1: and so that's one fired Coude. They have played their
Speaker 1: best three games of the season on offense in a row.
Speaker 1: They outgained the Green Bay Packers, that's a nine win team.
Speaker 1: They got to over time against the Vikings, that's a
Speaker 1: ten win team. They were in that game again to
Speaker 1: the Lions.
Speaker 4: I will take thirty seconds left that to take the win.
Speaker 3: But oh my goodness, not great, right, So I'm all
Speaker 3: about the fired coach principle.
Speaker 1: It's worked already twice this season. We saw it work
Speaker 1: for the Saints last time around with Rizzy And do
Speaker 1: you think you want to check some injury situations for
Speaker 1: the Bears. But it does sound like all their players
Speaker 1: that are key DJ Moore have a chance to play.
Speaker 3: J Moore and DeAndre Swift are If they are both out,
Speaker 3: then maybe that.
Speaker 1: Right, keep an eye on that, But just the vibes
Speaker 1: are that probably Why are they getting point?
Speaker 4: Are the Niners getting seventy points? That's the thing that's crazy.
Speaker 1: At this point in the season, you just can forgive
Speaker 1: this forty nine Ers team is four point.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked if the forty nine Ers find
Speaker 1: a way to win this game at the end somehow,
Speaker 1: because that's just who the Bears are at this point.
Speaker 1: But it'll be by one point, it'll be by two points.
Speaker 1: You'll cover that number and will come out on top.
Speaker 4: I like it. I like it.
Speaker 1: I feel really good about that. And yeah, Fred Warner
Speaker 1: is playing through a broken foot. We don't know why
Speaker 1: is he playing with a broken foot. It is getting
Speaker 1: to that point in the season too, that the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers I think are gonna start like shutting some
Speaker 1: of these guys down. Yes that are healthy, they're not
Speaker 1: you shut them down. You're not quite there yet. But man,
Speaker 1: that Kashanan just looks angry and he looks miserable. So
Speaker 1: that's my second pick. We're already back to you for
Speaker 1: your second pick. Since that's my second pick, Minnesota. I
Speaker 1: want Minnesota. Oh five points, Okay, I.
Speaker 4: Don't really like five.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of weird like four five point spreads
Speaker 3: this week, which blah. But I think Minnesota it's a
Speaker 3: good one against Atlanta. They're hosting Atlanta, it's at home Atlanta.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Sure, they had a third of their season long sack
Speaker 3: total last week with five. I don't think that that's
Speaker 3: a real true indication of what's going on. But even so,
Speaker 3: we saw Sam Darnold have like a one thirty point
Speaker 3: three passer rating against pressure last week against the Cardinals.
Speaker 3: Am I saying Minnesota's perfect? No, Am I saying Atlanta's bad?
Speaker 4: Kinda.
Speaker 3: I'm saying that their turnover prone. This has been a
Speaker 3: weird skid for them. I mean, Kirk Cousins hasn't thrown
Speaker 3: a touchdown pass in like three weeks.
Speaker 2: Ten turnovers.
Speaker 4: I that's not a good that's a bad ratio.
Speaker 1: I without even realizing this is the Kirk Cousins return
Speaker 1: to Minnesota game, without thinking about that, I just started wondering,
Speaker 1: is this potentially the last start for Kirk Cousins this year?
Speaker 1: If he threw like three interceptions in this game against
Speaker 1: a great Brian Flores defense that mixes you up, you
Speaker 1: would think they would think about going to Pennix, and
Speaker 1: it would I am not rooting for that.
Speaker 2: I want your pick to be right.
Speaker 1: I want them to cover, But I think it would
Speaker 1: be heartbreaking for Kirk Cousins' career as a starting quarterback
Speaker 1: to end in Minnesota getting bed. So what I am
Speaker 1: hoping for in this situation is that the Falcons defense
Speaker 1: reverts back to who they've been all year, and that
Speaker 1: it's thirty seven to twenty six, and you cover your
Speaker 1: spread and Kirk is fine enough and h and it's
Speaker 1: not that depressing of a loss at least for Kirk.
Speaker 3: You know, I don't know he can cry all the
Speaker 3: way to the bank. The man has like the most
Speaker 3: guaranteed money ever. So I'm not like crying for.
Speaker 1: Okay, he's that a great career. We'll say that all
Speaker 1: the time though about like, hey, he's got a lot
Speaker 1: of money. I don't feel bad for them as there's
Speaker 1: still people they bleed, they have emotions.
Speaker 3: Wow are you going there? Listen, everyone needs a moment
Speaker 3: of empathy.
Speaker 2: Egg.
Speaker 3: But I will say another quarterback would not have been
Speaker 3: given this leash of three games with this many turnovers
Speaker 3: before something would have been I mean even Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 3: They were like, are gonna go with him for the
Speaker 3: rest of the No one's even asked.
Speaker 2: That question about Kirkhusbins.
Speaker 1: They're asking there not really, Rahem's pushing pushing back, He's
Speaker 1: staying strong. We'll see if he stays strong. After Cynthia
Speaker 1: delivers another winner and they cover this thing, I'm finishing
Speaker 1: up with another spread in that point range, and I'm
Speaker 1: going with another favorite.
Speaker 2: I love this one, Miami minus f and a half.
Speaker 3: For a second, I thought you were gonna say the Saints.
Speaker 3: I'm like, what, No, I don't want to go Yeah, no,
Speaker 3: stay away from that one for me.
Speaker 1: I don't like that one at all. In fact, I
Speaker 1: kind of like the Giants, but I agree, why bother
Speaker 1: I'm not bothering. I'm not bothered with either one. I
Speaker 1: just hate love me some Dolphins minus five and a half.
Speaker 1: We've been telling you about fraud watch all season long.
Speaker 1: When it comes to the Jets, they are three and
Speaker 1: nine on the season, Cynthia, I saw a stat that
Speaker 1: they have been favored in nine of those games and
Speaker 1: they've only won three of them. They are the first
Speaker 1: team ever to accomplish that feat.
Speaker 4: To be congratulation.
Speaker 1: That was actually courtesy of my friend Danny Hifitz at
Speaker 1: The Ringer Fantasy Football, so I want to give him
Speaker 1: credit for that stat. That's a crazy stat. Finally, the
Speaker 1: numbers have adjusted. Five and a half seems like a
Speaker 1: normal number to me. They're going up on the road
Speaker 1: against a road team, but I do think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of reasons to believe this is a blowout. The
Speaker 1: last Jets offensive game over three hundred yards was October
Speaker 1: twenty seven, they are a bad was against the Patriots,
Speaker 1: by the way, and they lost that game in the
Speaker 1: division on the road. Like they're gonna lose this one.
Speaker 1: Last week, the only reason they were in the game
Speaker 1: against Seattle was special teams. They got about fourteen points
Speaker 1: worth of value from their special teams.
Speaker 2: That's the only reason they were even in it.
Speaker 1: The Dolphins have extra rest love that they're coming off
Speaker 1: a Thursday night game, they're at home, and then the
Speaker 1: injury situation is very problematic for the Jets.
Speaker 2: No Sauce Gardner at practice.
Speaker 1: Early in the week, no Briessee Hall at practice early
Speaker 1: in the week, and no Elijah Vera Tucker early in
Speaker 1: the week, and Morgan Moses and another tackle on their
Speaker 1: team is very questionable. The Dolphins have been hearing all
Speaker 1: this talk about oh, you're soft your so I think
Speaker 1: this is a good team. I think they're going to
Speaker 1: respond to a bad loss. And they've had two very
Speaker 1: similar matchups in my mind at home in very recent memory.
Speaker 1: Their last two home games were against the Raiders and
Speaker 1: against the Patriots, two of the other worst teams in
Speaker 1: the league along with the Jets. What do they do
Speaker 1: in those games? They won comfortably sixty eight points. They
Speaker 1: put on the board on offense in those two games
Speaker 1: only gave up thirty four. I think their defense is
Speaker 1: good enough that the Jets just aren't gonna go crazy
Speaker 1: on anyone. The Dolphins defense is okay, but the Dolphins
Speaker 1: offense is gonna go up and down the field. I'm
Speaker 1: putting their over under of their points for me, it's
Speaker 1: about thirty five. They're gonna put about thirty five on
Speaker 1: the board. Do you think Aaron Rodgers can keep up?
Speaker 1: No way, I like a little thirty four. You're thirty
Speaker 1: five to like fourteen. This thing's a blowout. Fraud Watches
Speaker 1: is on. It's been on all year for the Jets.
Speaker 3: Look, I mean Aaron Rodgers turned forty one, so I
Speaker 3: mean if he was a pumpkin at forty, he's a
Speaker 3: rotten pumpkin at forty one, right, I mean obviously in
Speaker 3: a whole week. It's anyways. No, I'm with you on that.
Speaker 3: I think that ever really comfortable win for them. Are
Speaker 3: you ready for my last one?
Speaker 2: This? Yes?
Speaker 4: This is the uh break Greg Hearts Special.
Speaker 2: Oh it's the Cardinals.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm no one taking the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: Oh you're taking the Seahawks. Yeah, well that's taking them.
Speaker 4: With the parts too.
Speaker 2: I like that.
Speaker 4: You think the Cardinals are gonna win though you told.
Speaker 1: Me that I did, But I'm rooting for that to
Speaker 1: be wrong. Sometimes the head and the heart are pretty off.
Speaker 1: And when you look at the spread, the Cardinals are
Speaker 1: favored in this game right by three right now?
Speaker 3: Oh it went up to three. I thought it was
Speaker 3: two and a half. Fine by meal, get even better
Speaker 3: with that depends on what. Yeah, where it's really you're
Speaker 3: looking at.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at DraftKings and it's great minus three. That's
Speaker 1: what we've been going off. I'll see long on this show.
Speaker 1: So that's where they're at, and I love it. It
Speaker 1: just happened a couple weeks ago. They beat him sixteen
Speaker 1: to six. It's going to be a defensive game.
Speaker 3: I think, what do you think I have twenty Oh sorry,
Speaker 3: excuse me, I have twenty three to twenty one. Okay,
Speaker 3: so forty five total points, which is slightly over. I
Speaker 3: think it's forty four and a half where the line
Speaker 3: is right now in this game. I'm very interested to
Speaker 3: see if they can figure out how to stop Jackson
Speaker 3: Smith and Jigba that he runs exactly where they have
Speaker 3: huge vulnerabilities. I don't think it's two weeks that they've
Speaker 3: shored those up. And now you even have Kyler Murray
Speaker 3: throwing turnovers. Why are you turning the ball over in
Speaker 3: two games, he had the same number of turnovers as
Speaker 3: the ten before Thereby, I mean just not just not
Speaker 3: an easy that's a really hard way to win. I
Speaker 3: know their defense looked a little bit better last week.
Speaker 3: I understand. I'm not saying they're not capable of doing it.
Speaker 3: This is I'm picking an underdog here for a reason,
Speaker 3: But you know it's it's I just think there are
Speaker 3: too many ways for Seattle, especially post By. They've really
Speaker 3: on defense, they're getting healthier, they're getting you chant woe
Speaker 3: su back like, it's pretty good.
Speaker 4: It's pretty good stuff for you.
Speaker 1: I love it. Look you have them winning straight up.
Speaker 1: So if people like a little value, you could also
Speaker 1: look at them.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's even more valuable there.
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like, I'll just take the points because
Speaker 3: we why not right in our little standings. I don't
Speaker 3: get extra points for picking them straight up?
Speaker 2: Now, you think so, why would I?
Speaker 4: Why wouldn't I give myself a little insurance?
Speaker 1: You should you're gonna come back, Cynthia, you're over five hundred.
Speaker 1: Not worried, we're doing well, Not worried. We got I
Speaker 1: had a little bit of a speed bump Hey, we
Speaker 1: might have been doing this in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: You know this is this has been a hit the youth, obviously.
Speaker 1: You tube numbers are cranking up, the podcast numbers are
Speaker 1: cranking up. A couple other games. I kind of like,
Speaker 1: just I'll put some extra picks out there. I got
Speaker 1: to last week. I do like, I kind of do
Speaker 1: like the Giants plus four and a half. I'm with you,
Speaker 1: I kind of like the Cowboys. Actually, when I saw
Speaker 1: the injury report and Orlando Brown is not going to
Speaker 1: play for the now, well that would change my mind.
Speaker 4: But five and a half points, that would also probably
Speaker 4: change the line to be fair.
Speaker 2: That maybe maybe I take that back the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: It doesn't give me a good feeling, but my gut
Speaker 1: says that's too many points to give the Bengals. But
Speaker 1: what I do feel good about as an extra one
Speaker 1: is just the Chargers plus four. I just think that's
Speaker 1: a field goal game one way or another. Their their
Speaker 1: defense is actually better your Chiefs defense right now.
Speaker 3: So I like, how do you feel about how do
Speaker 3: you feel about that twelve point spread in day Away Eagles?
Speaker 2: Yeah, day Away?
Speaker 1: I think that I think Bryce Young it sounds crazy,
Speaker 1: but he's playing too well, and the Eagles have been
Speaker 1: playing these big time games. Maybe just a little bit
Speaker 1: of a letdown spot. Maybe Bryce just hits a touchdown
Speaker 1: at the end to cut it from seventeen to ten.
Speaker 2: You know what I mean. It's not really close, but
Speaker 2: that's a stay away.
Speaker 4: From also the Eagles. How like crazy is this? Those
Speaker 4: like four of their next last five games are home.
Speaker 3: I love this Eagles team. May you just sleep in
Speaker 3: their own bed? Yeah, comfortable in Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: It's crazy how how good this Eagles team is right now?
Speaker 1: Feel good about my super bullpick? It's I think it's
Speaker 1: a little scary. We don't feel good about that. Why
Speaker 1: because I know in your heart you want something. I'm
Speaker 1: mary think what I want. I'm just saying I'm happy
Speaker 1: that I like. I'm I'm good with being right too.
Speaker 1: So Cynthia's picks to recap. She finished up with a
Speaker 1: golden Seattle Seahawks plus three on the road in Arizona.
Speaker 1: She's got the Minnesota Vikings favored by five and a
Speaker 1: half at home against the Falcons, and then we are
Speaker 1: joining forces on the Bears plus four in Santa Clara.
Speaker 1: My other two picks on top of the Bears plus
Speaker 1: four are Steelers minus six and a half. I feel
Speaker 1: like I'm I'm zagging a little bit where people will
Speaker 1: be zigging. I like this pic and I also like
Speaker 1: the Dolphins covering the five and a half at home
Speaker 1: against the Jets. That's it, Cynthia, we did it. You're
Speaker 1: moving on to one of your million other jobs. Check
Speaker 1: us out on NFL Game Deview. That show also goes
Speaker 1: up on YouTube as just week fourteen picks. I've been
Speaker 1: noticing a lot of people are watching it on YouTube too.
Speaker 4: Game day views on YouTube it is and.
Speaker 1: They don't call it game Deview, but people were complaining
Speaker 1: in my comments that it wasn't up on Thanksgiving week,
Speaker 1: and then I went and looked at yeah, we're getting
Speaker 1: a lot of you shut up. But also check out
Speaker 1: Cynthia's YouTube channel, Numbers Game, and of course check out
Speaker 1: NFL Daily and subscribe to the the YouTube and like us,
Speaker 1: you know, on your Apple phone or Spotify whatever. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be one of my favorite people in the world.
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to spending tells of the season with it.
Speaker 1: I will I will tell him and I will let
Speaker 1: him watch this show where yes, he is in first
Speaker 1: place at at least for one week. I don't know
Speaker 1: if I get I didn't let that boy just stay
Speaker 1: there in the art m H. Yes, when you're getting
Speaker 1: outshined by your own progeny, you know football is back.
Speaker 2: Let's see on Sunday m
Speaker 3: Hm.