WEBVTT - I Love You Waymo 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:15.796 Pushkin. 0:00:22.156 --> 0:00:25.756 I'm standing outside a Soso coffeehouse in a strip mall 0:00:26.316 --> 0:00:31.916 near Phoenix, Arizona, perfectly blue skies, maybe seventy degrees an 0:00:31.916 --> 0:00:36.716 imperceptible breeze. My producer, Jacob Smith is here with me. 0:00:37.316 --> 0:00:40.876 We're waiting for the coolest car ever made. 0:00:41.356 --> 0:00:43.956 So it's say, hold on, let's see what we got here. 0:00:43.996 --> 0:00:46.436 We got a Is it a Nissan? 0:00:46.676 --> 0:00:46.916 No? 0:00:46.916 --> 0:00:48.036 No, it's a Pacifica. 0:00:49.196 --> 0:00:54.116 It's a Chrysler Pacifica. Actually a Chrysler Pacifica hybrid, a 0:00:54.196 --> 0:00:56.956 Mini Man tricked out by the geniuses at Google with 0:00:57.076 --> 0:01:00.476 every conceivable high tech sensor and gizmo known to man, 0:01:01.076 --> 0:01:05.276 so that it can drive itself, a fully autonomous vehicle. 0:01:06.076 --> 0:01:09.716 Google calls it Weaimo, and here on the outskirts of 0:01:09.716 --> 0:01:12.996 Phoenix you can order Weimo on an app like an 0:01:13.076 --> 0:01:18.076 uber our. Weimo silently glides up like a spooky ghost 0:01:18.116 --> 0:01:19.916 ship and we get on board. 0:01:20.916 --> 0:01:22.236 So we have this thing. 0:01:22.276 --> 0:01:24.196 Should we start the ride? 0:01:25.476 --> 0:01:28.916 My name is Malcolm Gladwell. Welcome to season six of 0:01:28.996 --> 0:01:34.636 Revisionist History, my podcast about things overlooked and misunderstood. We 0:01:34.876 --> 0:01:38.636 are back, ladies and gentlemen, with a heartwarming story of 0:01:38.676 --> 0:01:41.396 what I learned riding around in a weymo on a 0:01:41.436 --> 0:01:48.996 gorgeous Arizona morning. Me and Jacob grinning ear to ear, 0:01:49.236 --> 0:01:51.476 bouncing up and down like little boys on their first 0:01:51.516 --> 0:01:54.676 visit to Disneyland. We were on our way to a 0:01:54.676 --> 0:01:58.996 new century, a new era, the dawn of a new age. 0:02:00.356 --> 0:02:04.516 Although I have to be honest, the future was now 0:02:04.596 --> 0:02:05.436 what we expected. 0:02:07.316 --> 0:02:07.876 It was better. 0:02:17.956 --> 0:02:26.156 The doors are closing, heading to Alamo Draft House Cinema Tempe. 0:02:26.196 --> 0:02:27.036 Oh man, here we go. 0:02:27.316 --> 0:02:28.116 Your seatbelts. 0:02:29.596 --> 0:02:31.476 We sit in the back. You have to sit in 0:02:31.516 --> 0:02:34.636 the back of Weimo. If we lean slightly forward, we 0:02:34.676 --> 0:02:38.556 can see the van's steering wheel turning all by itself. 0:02:39.316 --> 0:02:41.636 This car is not capable of breaking the speed. 0:02:41.476 --> 0:02:44.636 Of Well, I'm curious about that. That's a good question, right, 0:02:44.676 --> 0:02:45.436 Like what if we had to? 0:02:46.396 --> 0:02:48.436 What if can I enter? 0:02:48.636 --> 0:02:52.236 Like my wife is pregnant and we're rushing to the hospital. 0:02:54.076 --> 0:02:56.676 I think the only things we could do is press 0:02:56.676 --> 0:02:59.956 a button. This is pull over. If we were scared 0:03:00.036 --> 0:03:02.396 or something. I see that, what does it pullover? 0:03:03.756 --> 0:03:06.396 We do not pull over. We cruise down the streets 0:03:06.396 --> 0:03:11.516 of Chandler, somewhere unseen of them, and artificial intelligences are 0:03:11.556 --> 0:03:16.476 guiding us unerringly towards our destination the Alamo Draft House, 0:03:16.476 --> 0:03:23.036 Cinema and Tempe. We approach Attorney Toyota with a student 0:03:23.116 --> 0:03:25.356 driver nervously navigating an intersection. 0:03:26.356 --> 0:03:27.916 Oh god, the irony. 0:03:28.396 --> 0:03:31.476 A human, a human learning a task that will, within 0:03:32.156 --> 0:03:34.316 years of its completion, be obsolete. 0:03:34.436 --> 0:03:36.676 And it's in that human's rear view mirror is the 0:03:36.676 --> 0:03:37.956 future of that? 0:03:38.276 --> 0:03:40.716 We must We should yank that driver, the student driver, 0:03:40.756 --> 0:03:42.916 out and just say why don't you learn? Why don't 0:03:42.916 --> 0:03:45.276 you learn to type on a manual typewriter? That's about 0:03:45.276 --> 0:03:52.996 as useful. Here's a BlackBerry, send some messages. Look, there's 0:03:52.996 --> 0:03:58.956 a student loser. Did we realize in that moment what 0:03:59.036 --> 0:04:02.396 weima would mean for our future, for all of our future? 0:04:02.676 --> 0:04:03.196 Not yet. 0:04:03.636 --> 0:04:07.476 We were still in the blisstate. My epiphany would not 0:04:07.556 --> 0:04:11.036 come until later that afternoon, when I found myself sprinting 0:04:11.196 --> 0:04:13.116 desperately alongside our weimo. 0:04:13.796 --> 0:04:14.596 Let's go Weimo. 0:04:14.916 --> 0:04:17.716 What Jacob looked on helplessly from the backseat. Women doesn't 0:04:17.716 --> 0:04:20.916 know what he's doing? Ash woman knows what he's doing. 0:04:21.796 --> 0:04:24.396 He doesn't know what I'm doing. Well, come back to this, 0:04:24.956 --> 0:04:25.556 I promise. 0:04:26.236 --> 0:04:29.716 He thinks he's gotten away from me, not so fast, 0:04:29.756 --> 0:04:30.796 my friend. 0:04:39.356 --> 0:04:42.596 Have you ever watched videos from tech conferences like TED? 0:04:43.956 --> 0:04:47.196 The signature TED conference is an annual gathering of people 0:04:47.356 --> 0:04:50.916 who are excited about technology talking to people who are 0:04:50.916 --> 0:04:55.356 excited about technology, about how exciting technology is? You know 0:04:55.436 --> 0:04:59.756 the type turtlenecks way into bitcoin. Picture of Elon Musk 0:04:59.756 --> 0:05:02.076 on the home screen of the iPhone twelve pro max. 0:05:03.156 --> 0:05:06.596 So In eighteen eighty five, Carl Bens invented the automobile. 0:05:07.276 --> 0:05:09.516 Later that year, he took it out of the first 0:05:09.556 --> 0:05:13.196 public test drive and true story, crashed into a wall. 0:05:14.436 --> 0:05:17.956 TED conferences always have at least one speaker gliding across 0:05:17.996 --> 0:05:22.356 the stage, clicking through powerpoints on the future of the automobile. 0:05:23.116 --> 0:05:25.756 For the last one hundred and thirty years, we've been 0:05:25.796 --> 0:05:28.276 working around that least reliable part of the car, of 0:05:28.276 --> 0:05:28.716 the driver. 0:05:29.556 --> 0:05:33.356 We may be the last generation to own cars. Our 0:05:33.476 --> 0:05:36.996 kids and grandkids. They may never have to learn to drive. 0:05:38.036 --> 0:05:40.116 They may never have to worry about driving around and 0:05:40.156 --> 0:05:45.116 looking for parking or speeding tickets or drunk driving. And 0:05:45.156 --> 0:05:48.076 the best part is they could go their entire life 0:05:48.316 --> 0:05:52.476 without ever seeing a car accident. Driverless cars are being 0:05:52.516 --> 0:05:55.156 touted as one of the most disruptive technologies of our time. 0:05:58.236 --> 0:06:01.476 Are you skeptical? I know some of you are. While 0:06:01.516 --> 0:06:03.836 Jacob and I were cruising around the suburbs of Phoenix, 0:06:04.116 --> 0:06:06.236 I took a video from the backseat of our Weimo 0:06:06.676 --> 0:06:09.796 of the steering wheel turning by itself as the houses 0:06:09.836 --> 0:06:13.836 and sidewalks whosh past. I tweeted out the video and 0:06:13.916 --> 0:06:16.956 watched from the back seat as the replies flooded in, 0:06:17.596 --> 0:06:20.796 comments like I would be freaking out the entire time. 0:06:21.356 --> 0:06:24.436 Been very nice listening to your podcasts. Your upcoming demise 0:06:24.516 --> 0:06:27.556 is a great loss. This will all end in tears. 0:06:27.956 --> 0:06:30.156 A lot of people are frightened by the idea of 0:06:30.156 --> 0:06:33.116 a self driving car, but let me tell you don't 0:06:33.156 --> 0:06:35.676 be frightened. From the moment we got in the minivan, 0:06:35.956 --> 0:06:40.036 neither Jacob nor I could believe what a calming, measured, 0:06:40.356 --> 0:06:43.876 completely zen experience we were having. Right now, it's slowing 0:06:43.916 --> 0:06:48.236 for a speed bump. Oh, nicely done, Mamo. There's no 0:06:48.316 --> 0:06:49.996 way I would have I didn't even know. I wouldn't 0:06:49.996 --> 0:06:54.676 even I would have gone boom over that thing. Weimo 0:06:54.916 --> 0:06:58.796 slowed smoothly for a stoplight, kept a respectful distance from 0:06:58.836 --> 0:07:01.436 other drivers. One time we encountered a man in a 0:07:01.436 --> 0:07:06.276 wheelchair sharing the road. Weimo decelerated elegantly, gave him a 0:07:06.316 --> 0:07:09.396 generous berth, then cautiously pulled away. 0:07:09.796 --> 0:07:12.756 I also have to say totally trust the thing, like 0:07:12.796 --> 0:07:14.356 I have not thought for a second. 0:07:14.796 --> 0:07:17.156 I feel safe. Yeah, this is a safe space. 0:07:17.476 --> 0:07:18.836 This is an automotive safe space. 0:07:19.036 --> 0:07:21.036 I'll tell you one thing. It's certainly a safer space 0:07:21.036 --> 0:07:23.516 in the passenger see of my car when I'm driving. 0:07:23.796 --> 0:07:25.796 Okay, we just got someone just pulled out in front 0:07:25.796 --> 0:07:27.156 of us. 0:07:27.836 --> 0:07:31.356 Anticipated the second person slowed right down. That was some 0:07:31.436 --> 0:07:32.476 great defensive driving. 0:07:33.076 --> 0:07:37.076 Yeah, we encountered some terrible driving from another vehicle. We 0:07:37.276 --> 0:07:41.996 just cut across like six lanes and Weimo kind of unfazed. 0:07:41.996 --> 0:07:42.756 Way might handle it. 0:07:42.996 --> 0:07:43.756 Well like a pro. 0:07:46.076 --> 0:07:50.636 We reached our destination, the Alamo Cinema Draft House parking lot. 0:07:51.036 --> 0:07:54.356 We were so excited we decided to call up Sashwat 0:07:54.396 --> 0:07:57.756 Penny Grahi, the senior director of product management at Weimo. 0:07:58.156 --> 0:08:00.476 We had so much to ask him about, Like all 0:08:00.516 --> 0:08:03.836 the sensors on our minivan, so we have we have 0:08:03.876 --> 0:08:04.196 a few. 0:08:04.276 --> 0:08:06.556 So are you clearly on the doom what you're seeing 0:08:06.596 --> 0:08:09.316 on the doom at the top that's that's where we 0:08:09.396 --> 0:08:13.316 have a nineteen camera complex over there. So those are 0:08:13.436 --> 0:08:17.076 cameras plus two lasers. One is a medium range, one 0:08:17.116 --> 0:08:18.156 is a long range. 0:08:18.356 --> 0:08:21.716 The lasers are technically light our systems three D scanners. 0:08:22.036 --> 0:08:24.596 It's what NASA uses when they land on Mars. The 0:08:24.676 --> 0:08:28.876 laser looks around and instantly creates an incredibly detailed map 0:08:29.236 --> 0:08:30.716 of everything in its range. 0:08:31.196 --> 0:08:33.356 So that can see almost three football fields. 0:08:33.356 --> 0:08:37.916 So wait, wait three three foot that can see three 0:08:37.996 --> 0:08:39.836 hundred yards in every direction. 0:08:41.076 --> 0:08:45.556 That's right, that's right. Wow, So we yeah, and you 0:08:45.596 --> 0:08:48.836 know it can become very helpful. You may have realized. 0:08:48.836 --> 0:08:50.756 I noticed this as you were going on forty five 0:08:50.796 --> 0:08:54.316 miles per hour roots in Phoenix. The harder the speed, 0:08:54.476 --> 0:08:56.956 the longer the car needs to reason about is anything 0:08:56.956 --> 0:08:57.836 coming at that speed? 0:08:57.916 --> 0:08:58.916 Right if it's a very. 0:08:58.756 --> 0:09:02.836 Low speed seeing shorter distances. Okay, So those are the 0:09:02.916 --> 0:09:04.916 you know, medium and long range riders, and that's why 0:09:04.956 --> 0:09:07.356 they're placed atop as well, because you know you need 0:09:07.396 --> 0:09:11.436 a wider range view very well complimented by those smaller 0:09:11.476 --> 0:09:13.636 spinning things you must have seen on the sides of 0:09:13.676 --> 0:09:18.156 the cars. Yeah, and so that helps. For example, imagine 0:09:18.236 --> 0:09:20.836 you were in a busy parking lot in front of 0:09:20.836 --> 0:09:24.356 a Costco or a Walmart. Cars are part very close 0:09:24.396 --> 0:09:24.876 to each other. 0:09:25.196 --> 0:09:28.116 Because he went on sensors on the back, right, on 0:09:28.156 --> 0:09:31.316 the side, microphones to pick up things like a police siren. 0:09:31.676 --> 0:09:34.356 I asked sash Watt whether WEIMO had a blind spot 0:09:34.596 --> 0:09:36.716 like anything. It couldn't see. 0:09:36.556 --> 0:09:39.116 One clarification, Malcolm, when you said blind spot, did you 0:09:39.156 --> 0:09:42.076 mean the classical blind spot in our human driving? You know, 0:09:42.116 --> 0:09:44.796 for example, you're trained when you get your driving license 0:09:44.836 --> 0:09:47.036 to not just rely on your side camera. 0:09:47.116 --> 0:09:47.556 You just check. 0:09:47.836 --> 0:09:49.436 Oh no, absolutely not, so. 0:09:49.356 --> 0:09:52.876 That we do not have absolutely not. WEIMO has no 0:09:52.956 --> 0:09:58.916 blind spots. Arizona has a dubious distinction of being one 0:09:58.916 --> 0:10:02.356 of the most dangerous states in the country for pedestrians, 0:10:02.836 --> 0:10:05.716 with Phoenix as the prime culprit. This is not a 0:10:05.756 --> 0:10:10.676 city designed for anything but the convenience of automobiles. What 0:10:10.836 --> 0:10:15.996 a city full of Chrysler PACIFICA hybrids tricked out with radar, lightar, 0:10:16.436 --> 0:10:20.556 nineteen cameras, microphones, and the ability to see three hundred 0:10:20.636 --> 0:10:24.676 yards in every direction make Phoenix safer? Yes, it would, 0:10:26.716 --> 0:10:31.556 But the future will get even better than that, way 0:10:31.596 --> 0:10:44.156 more better. I need to take you on a brief 0:10:44.236 --> 0:10:47.756 digression away from the sunny streets of Phoenix to a 0:10:47.796 --> 0:10:51.756 call I had with Roseanne McManus, a professor of political 0:10:51.796 --> 0:10:56.996 science and international affairs at Penn State. McManus specializes in 0:10:57.036 --> 0:11:00.596 what's known as deterrence theory. Why do some conflicts lead 0:11:00.596 --> 0:11:03.156 to war and others just fizzle out? 0:11:03.716 --> 0:11:08.716 If there's complete information and so you know exactly how 0:11:08.796 --> 0:11:11.476 cost the other side finds war to be and how 0:11:11.596 --> 0:11:14.796 likely each side is to win. If you fight, then 0:11:14.996 --> 0:11:19.076 there's really no opportunity to bluff, and there should be 0:11:19.156 --> 0:11:22.916 no war because both sides know what would happen if 0:11:22.956 --> 0:11:25.596 you did fight a war, and so if one side 0:11:26.676 --> 0:11:29.236 is more powerful and they would win, then deterrence would 0:11:29.236 --> 0:11:34.076 work perfectly, and deterrence would never fail and life would 0:11:34.076 --> 0:11:34.836 be really simple. 0:11:35.156 --> 0:11:38.836 What McManus means is that if I'm rational and you 0:11:38.916 --> 0:11:42.196 are rational, and I know your intentions and capability and 0:11:42.236 --> 0:11:44.716 you know mine, then we're not going to go to war. 0:11:45.436 --> 0:11:48.076 Neither of us can effectively blackmail each other or make 0:11:48.116 --> 0:11:51.836 a threat or intimidate. Under the rational scenario, if you 0:11:51.916 --> 0:11:55.236 say I'll nuke, if you cross that line, I'd just 0:11:55.316 --> 0:11:58.036 roll my eyes and say, no, you won't You're not 0:11:58.116 --> 0:12:01.156 blowing up the world because I crossed a line. But 0:12:01.236 --> 0:12:05.956 what if you're just a little bit crazy? McManus is 0:12:05.956 --> 0:12:08.396 one of a number of deterrence theorists who has thought 0:12:08.396 --> 0:12:13.956 about this possible ability. By crazy, McManus doesn't mean completely psychotic. 0:12:14.196 --> 0:12:18.596 She just means somewhat irrational. What if you are possessed 0:12:18.596 --> 0:12:23.156 of and this is the phrase she uses extreme preferences, 0:12:23.876 --> 0:12:26.876 That is that you really want certain things and are 0:12:26.916 --> 0:12:29.676 willing to pay an insanely high price to get those 0:12:29.716 --> 0:12:33.476 certain things. If you are a little bit crazy like that, 0:12:34.476 --> 0:12:37.596 then I'm terrified because I really don't know whether you'd 0:12:37.636 --> 0:12:41.116 risk millions of dead to get what you want. McManus 0:12:41.196 --> 0:12:44.036 says this was exactly the situation before the Second World 0:12:44.076 --> 0:12:47.956 War when the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain famously believed 0:12:47.996 --> 0:12:50.436 Hitler when Hitler said he wasn't out to wage a 0:12:50.516 --> 0:12:51.076 total war. 0:12:51.956 --> 0:12:57.996 I'm going to have another talk with hair Hitler, only 0:12:58.076 --> 0:13:02.076 this time he has told me that it is his 0:13:02.236 --> 0:13:07.156 intention to come halfway to meet me. 0:13:10.516 --> 0:13:15.076 So walk us through that scenario, that what happened there 0:13:15.116 --> 0:13:18.156 and why that perception of Hitler allowed him to get 0:13:18.156 --> 0:13:18.636 his way. 0:13:18.836 --> 0:13:23.716 So he's negotiating with Chamberlain, who doesn't really want to 0:13:23.716 --> 0:13:26.676 have another war, having just had World War One not 0:13:26.796 --> 0:13:30.036 too long ago, and he tells Chamberlain, look, I'm a 0:13:30.116 --> 0:13:34.716 German nationalist. The German people in the student land are suffering. 0:13:35.116 --> 0:13:38.396 I want to unify all Germans. That's that's my mission 0:13:38.436 --> 0:13:42.116 in life. And you know, I'll do anything to unify 0:13:42.156 --> 0:13:45.156 all the Germans. But once I've unified all the Germans, 0:13:45.636 --> 0:13:47.636 I'm going to stop, and that's going to be it, 0:13:47.676 --> 0:13:49.316 and I'm going to be contented. 0:13:49.516 --> 0:13:52.476 So that's his extreme preference. He will do anything to 0:13:52.556 --> 0:13:56.076 unify Germans. That's how he's presenting himself exactly. 0:13:56.276 --> 0:14:01.476 Yeah, and it seems like Chamberlain believed that he believed 0:14:01.476 --> 0:14:04.076 it at at least enough to give it a shot 0:14:04.436 --> 0:14:06.236 and to make this deal with Hitler. 0:14:07.036 --> 0:14:10.676 In the world of deterrence, this is called the Madman theory. 0:14:11.436 --> 0:14:14.796 McManus argues that people in any conflict may have an 0:14:14.836 --> 0:14:18.516 advantage if the other side perceives them as being just 0:14:18.996 --> 0:14:23.556 a little bit but not entirely nuts. If you can 0:14:23.716 --> 0:14:27.116 successfully convince your opponent that that is the way your 0:14:27.156 --> 0:14:30.796 mind works, you can get your way in a negotiating 0:14:31.356 --> 0:14:35.436 in a blackmailing or negotiating context in a way you 0:14:35.476 --> 0:14:38.116 couldn't otherwise. That's your essential argument. 0:14:38.956 --> 0:14:41.876 Yes, that's my argument. Now, I think it actually is 0:14:41.996 --> 0:14:46.236 rather hard to create that perception. Hitler is really the 0:14:46.276 --> 0:14:49.996 only successful example that I've come up with so far. 0:14:50.996 --> 0:14:53.156 Well, I want to give you another example, which is 0:14:53.156 --> 0:14:55.316 why I called you. But it's not in your world. 0:14:55.356 --> 0:14:58.356 It's in a slightly different world. It's about deterrence, right, 0:14:58.796 --> 0:15:00.156 This is where we get to the heart of it. 0:15:00.796 --> 0:15:05.276 Not deterrence among global superpowers bristling with weapons, No, the 0:15:05.356 --> 0:15:09.596 kind of ordinary, low grade calculations we make every day 0:15:10.396 --> 0:15:13.876 as a pedestrian. Why do I not just walk out 0:15:13.876 --> 0:15:19.356 in front of other cars? I don't believe that they're 0:15:20.236 --> 0:15:25.076 they might hit me because they're emotional or crazy or something. 0:15:25.516 --> 0:15:30.236 They have a series of, as you say, extreme what's 0:15:30.276 --> 0:15:34.836 the phrase again, extreme preferences, extreme preferences. They might be 0:15:34.836 --> 0:15:38.556 more interested in their text texts at there, at that 0:15:38.676 --> 0:15:42.996 moment than me walking in front of them, right, And 0:15:43.276 --> 0:15:46.356 so that's the reason most people don't jaywalk, right, because 0:15:46.356 --> 0:15:54.836 there is that deterrence. Yes, Now, before we get back 0:15:54.876 --> 0:15:58.156 to autonomous vehicles and the glorious morning, Jacob and I 0:15:58.196 --> 0:16:01.196 spent riding way mows around the streets of Chandler, Arizona. 0:16:01.916 --> 0:16:04.556 I want to dwell on the issue of deterrence on 0:16:04.596 --> 0:16:09.436 the streets because drivers are not rational. I think we 0:16:09.476 --> 0:16:13.676 sometimes lose side of this fact. I thought professional cyclists, 0:16:13.716 --> 0:16:16.476 of all people, would have the best perspective on the 0:16:16.516 --> 0:16:21.836 inherent craziness of drivers. So I called up Lance Armstrong, 0:16:22.236 --> 0:16:25.356 cyclist extraordinaire who has been actively sharing the road with 0:16:25.476 --> 0:16:27.396 drivers for almost forty years. 0:16:27.996 --> 0:16:30.476 Cars freaked me out. Being out on the road and 0:16:31.756 --> 0:16:34.996 with cars and drivers and distracted drivers. 0:16:34.796 --> 0:16:36.716 It scares the shit out of me. 0:16:37.196 --> 0:16:42.596 Yeah, but you know, Malcolm, I actually now prefer the 0:16:42.596 --> 0:16:43.916 mountain bike just so I can be. 0:16:44.036 --> 0:16:45.316 Totally away from cars. 0:16:45.636 --> 0:16:45.876 Yeah. 0:16:46.276 --> 0:16:48.276 And if I'm giving a choice on my road bike, 0:16:48.996 --> 0:16:50.756 I'm going down a road and I see that there's 0:16:50.796 --> 0:16:53.516 a bike path, even if there's people with baby strollers 0:16:53.516 --> 0:16:55.076 and walkers and dogs. 0:16:55.036 --> 0:16:56.396 I always take the bike path. 0:16:56.436 --> 0:16:59.036 I just I don't want to have to think about, 0:16:59.196 --> 0:17:02.436 you know, cars and people checking out their cell phone 0:17:02.516 --> 0:17:05.076 or having a few cocktails. And they freaked me out. 0:17:05.716 --> 0:17:09.676 This is Lance Armstrong, a man so utterly and completely 0:17:09.836 --> 0:17:12.276 badass that he would happily go out on a bike 0:17:12.316 --> 0:17:14.756 for one hundred plus miles in the middle of the 0:17:14.796 --> 0:17:18.636 southern French summer, riding it insane speeds up and down 0:17:18.676 --> 0:17:22.316 massive mountains. I'm a runner. I think runners are the 0:17:22.356 --> 0:17:22.836 greatest thing. 0:17:22.876 --> 0:17:23.116 Ever. 0:17:23.636 --> 0:17:26.476 We're not as tough as cyclists, not even close. But 0:17:26.516 --> 0:17:30.556 even Lance, badass Lance is so scared of drivers that 0:17:30.636 --> 0:17:34.156 he would rather mountain bike or take the bike path 0:17:34.316 --> 0:17:36.956 with the parents and the dogs. Have you ever been 0:17:37.036 --> 0:17:38.476 hit by car? 0:17:39.196 --> 0:17:39.756 Of course? 0:17:39.876 --> 0:17:39.996 Oh? 0:17:40.076 --> 0:17:41.076 Yeah, yeah, many times? 0:17:41.356 --> 0:17:44.316 How many times? How many times? 0:17:45.196 --> 0:17:45.356 Oh? 0:17:45.476 --> 0:17:46.476 I say many times? 0:17:46.596 --> 0:17:50.396 I mean probably, look we're getting hit. 0:17:50.436 --> 0:17:51.596 Once is too many. 0:17:52.596 --> 0:17:58.116 I'd probably ride around five. The two worst ones was 0:17:58.156 --> 0:18:01.356 when I was young, I ran a yellow light on 0:18:01.436 --> 0:18:04.316 my bike and outside of a Dallas and suburbs where 0:18:04.316 --> 0:18:06.316 I grew up, and I got to the intersection and 0:18:06.356 --> 0:18:07.636 I turned yeall. I was like, I got this. 0:18:07.716 --> 0:18:09.836 Well, I made it five of the six lanes and 0:18:09.916 --> 0:18:12.276 the six land lady was coming and just heading straight 0:18:12.276 --> 0:18:15.636 from the sides and I was banged up, but okay. 0:18:16.476 --> 0:18:18.356 Then there was a time he was bombing down some 0:18:18.556 --> 0:18:22.396 empty French country road, hadn't seen a car in an hour? Well, shit, 0:18:22.476 --> 0:18:24.996 sure enough, come around the corner and this old farmer 0:18:25.116 --> 0:18:27.116 just coming the other way, and just I clipped right 0:18:27.196 --> 0:18:30.596 the front and I cracked two vertebra. 0:18:30.916 --> 0:18:31.636 You could be dead. 0:18:32.996 --> 0:18:34.996 Well yeah, yeah, yeah, of course. 0:18:36.156 --> 0:18:41.196 Of course. Next I called up Jonathan Voters, another former 0:18:41.236 --> 0:18:44.236 professional cyclist. He and Lance were teammates at one point. 0:18:44.756 --> 0:18:47.676 I wanted to make sure Lance wasn't an exception. No 0:18:48.356 --> 0:18:50.876 Votters just as terrified. 0:18:51.236 --> 0:18:54.316 Yeah, I mean. The first driver I fear the most 0:18:54.436 --> 0:18:58.556 is just is you know, someone who's not paying attention 0:18:58.596 --> 0:19:00.676 for whatever reason that is. They're reaching for a hamburger, 0:19:00.756 --> 0:19:05.036 they're texting on their phone, they're arguing with their kids, 0:19:05.396 --> 0:19:08.276 whatever it is. They're distracted, and they basically just sort 0:19:08.276 --> 0:19:11.116 of weave into you. This is one reason that actually, 0:19:11.156 --> 0:19:13.716 when I teach people how to ride in traffic, I 0:19:13.796 --> 0:19:16.956 often teach them to ride actually further out. If you're 0:19:16.956 --> 0:19:20.276 further out in the road, it actually forces you into 0:19:20.756 --> 0:19:23.636 the line of vision of the driver. The second type 0:19:23.636 --> 0:19:27.956 of driver that I fear is just angry. They don't 0:19:27.996 --> 0:19:31.196 want you there as a cyclist. They feel that the 0:19:31.316 --> 0:19:35.956 road is theirs and that you are impeding their progress 0:19:35.996 --> 0:19:40.356 to getting to their destination, and they want to run 0:19:40.396 --> 0:19:45.396 you over. And maybe they realize, oh, that there's you know, 0:19:45.436 --> 0:19:47.996 there are consequences for me running over this cyclist, but 0:19:48.036 --> 0:19:50.156 they're viewing you as essentially like subhuman. 0:19:50.516 --> 0:19:53.396 The willingness to risk killing a cyclist because they might 0:19:53.436 --> 0:19:55.916 slow you down for a few seconds is, of course, 0:19:56.396 --> 0:19:59.196 the textbook definition of an extreme preference. 0:19:59.516 --> 0:20:02.356 There's a multi billion dollar industry, I should say, built 0:20:02.436 --> 0:20:08.076 upon fear of traffic peloton swift. These are you know, 0:20:08.156 --> 0:20:13.276 in home ding a bike and whatever, pieces of equipment, hardware, software, 0:20:13.356 --> 0:20:17.956 that are entirely a result of people being afraid to 0:20:17.996 --> 0:20:18.676 ride in traffic. 0:20:19.196 --> 0:20:22.396 To voters, riding a stationary bicycle makes no sense, I mean, 0:20:22.436 --> 0:20:24.916 why would you do that? The whole point of riding 0:20:24.916 --> 0:20:27.356 a bike is the thrill of movement, the wind in 0:20:27.396 --> 0:20:30.956 your hair, the adventure of going somewhere. But millions of 0:20:30.996 --> 0:20:34.716 Americans only feel truly safe peddling in their basements. 0:20:35.396 --> 0:20:38.236 To me, the only possible explanation for that, well, they're 0:20:38.236 --> 0:20:41.636 two possible explanations, that society as a whole have gone insane. 0:20:41.836 --> 0:20:45.796 Or that people are just you know, that they're afraid 0:20:45.876 --> 0:20:49.516 of traffic and afraid of cars, which quite logically, you know, 0:20:49.756 --> 0:20:51.356 makes sense that they would. 0:20:51.756 --> 0:20:53.436 Yeah, so I don't think We've gone insane. 0:20:53.516 --> 0:20:56.476 Yet there is a reason why when you drive down 0:20:56.476 --> 0:21:02.556 the street, cyclists and runners and pedestrians aren't inundating you, competing. 0:21:02.036 --> 0:21:02.556 For the road. 0:21:03.396 --> 0:21:07.236 They're afraid of you. You and why are they afraid? 0:21:07.556 --> 0:21:12.116 Because you're nuts? And in any confrontation that madman has 0:21:12.156 --> 0:21:15.756 the upper hand. All drivers are nuts, with one exception. 0:21:16.916 --> 0:21:17.276 Weimo. 0:21:18.756 --> 0:21:22.676 Weymo doesn't have emotions. Weymo doesn't text. Weymo doesn't eat 0:21:22.716 --> 0:21:25.236 a burger and drive with his knees. Weimo doesn't get 0:21:25.276 --> 0:21:27.716 angry if you behave like an idiot. Weimo doesn't give 0:21:27.756 --> 0:21:32.436 you the finger. Waymo doesn't do road rage. Weimo wants 0:21:32.476 --> 0:21:36.556 to live and let live. Weimo is your grandmother, only 0:21:36.596 --> 0:21:40.316 with lightning reflexes and perfect vision to three hundred yards. 0:21:40.916 --> 0:21:45.076 In a world of Weimo's, cars aren't the mad men anymore. 0:21:45.636 --> 0:21:48.276 But if cars aren't the madmen, guess who. 0:21:48.156 --> 0:21:49.556 Gets to be crazy. 0:21:49.916 --> 0:22:05.756 The answer is obvious, my friends, we do. I will 0:22:05.796 --> 0:22:09.596 admit that I was slow to grasp the actual implicatations 0:22:09.916 --> 0:22:13.756 of autonomous driving. I'd been too busy watching all those 0:22:13.796 --> 0:22:17.116 ted talks where the Silicon Valley types explain the self 0:22:17.196 --> 0:22:21.836 driving tech utopia, where everyone behaves with the unruffled rationality 0:22:22.036 --> 0:22:27.276 of an engineering major at Stanford University. But one day 0:22:27.316 --> 0:22:30.676 I stumbled upon a brilliant essay by an economist named 0:22:30.796 --> 0:22:35.196 Adam Millard Ball. His paper reads like the academic version 0:22:35.636 --> 0:22:39.036 of the Hans Christian Anderson story The Emperor's New Clothes. 0:22:40.516 --> 0:22:45.396 This was framed as a technological problem. It was framed 0:22:45.596 --> 0:22:48.276 as a space where we just need to figure out 0:22:48.276 --> 0:22:51.756 the right programming another technological solutions. 0:22:52.076 --> 0:22:56.036 To Millard Ball, the issue with autonomous vehicles was people, 0:22:56.596 --> 0:22:59.996 specifically the people outside the vehicle. 0:23:00.556 --> 0:23:03.316 So if you're a pedestrian and you have that confidence 0:23:03.516 --> 0:23:06.196 that the autonomous vehicle is going to stop and yeel 0:23:06.236 --> 0:23:10.276 to you as legally it should, then there's nothing to 0:23:10.316 --> 0:23:12.436 stop you from taking that right of way. 0:23:12.836 --> 0:23:15.996 Pedestrians and drivers now engage in a dangerous game of chicken, 0:23:16.276 --> 0:23:19.756 each daring the other to do something stupid. But if 0:23:19.796 --> 0:23:23.036 weamo takes over the rules of that game change. 0:23:23.476 --> 0:23:26.676 If you know that the other player is much more 0:23:26.716 --> 0:23:30.676