WEBVTT - Surveillance: World Economic Forum in Davos Kicks Off

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee.

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<v Speaker 1>We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 1>and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. The

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<v Speaker 1>weather is beautiful here in Davos at the meetings of

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<v Speaker 1>the World Economic four and the theme globalization four point

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<v Speaker 1>oh maybe pushed aside by the news slow yes, brexit,

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<v Speaker 1>yes to shutdown, but also global slowdown. All of this

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<v Speaker 1>wrapping around conversations on China, and again, as we said earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>it could be all one or two hour conversation with

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<v Speaker 1>Laura Chash. She's Hong Kong Exchange share working in finance.

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<v Speaker 1>Years of Pillsbury, I'm and other law firms with far more.

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<v Speaker 1>She is Laura Chure of the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

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<v Speaker 1>What was it like your first day? I was coming

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<v Speaker 1>from Hong Kong and Little Cot It was shot and

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<v Speaker 1>this was in the late sixties. I'm betraying my age.

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<v Speaker 1>It was the days of the Vietnam protest, so I

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<v Speaker 1>was thrown right into that and interesting, interesting, exciting, and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a really introduction to the to the United

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<v Speaker 1>It was a politics at the time, and Mr Kissinger

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<v Speaker 1>and Mr Nixon to that and all. If you could

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<v Speaker 1>have a cocktail right now at the Mandarin Bar in

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong was selected members of the Trump administration who

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<v Speaker 1>feel China is a behavioral, a cultural and a social threat.

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<v Speaker 1>What would you say to them at the m bar? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, first and foremost, Uh, we're talking about different culture.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about include sution. We have to be accepting

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<v Speaker 1>of other people's valued and culture. But there are some

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<v Speaker 1>common value even though we may have different culture. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the core valued of you know, of integrity, um, honesty.

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<v Speaker 1>These are values that the rule of law. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>these are values that Hong Kong hosts there and that's

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<v Speaker 1>what made Hong Kong successful. In the last few decades,

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<v Speaker 1>China has repeatedly promised to open its financial system to investors,

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<v Speaker 1>foreign investors and foreign companies. What more, how's it going?

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<v Speaker 1>First of all? And what more do they need to do? Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's actually quite a lot that that the central government

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<v Speaker 1>can do in opening up the financial market. When China

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<v Speaker 1>joined the w TEL in two thousand and two, UH

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<v Speaker 1>Financial Services was one of the least open of all

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<v Speaker 1>the sectors, and over the years, gradually they have opened up.

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<v Speaker 1>They have allowed foreign ownership in banks and security houses

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<v Speaker 1>and so on. But because the currency is not completely convertible,

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<v Speaker 1>so foreign investors now can access the Chinese markets through

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong, so to stock connect scheme, what else can

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<v Speaker 1>the central government do? I think they have already said

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<v Speaker 1>a few months ago that they are eliminating the restriction

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<v Speaker 1>on ownership. But what is more important is really not

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<v Speaker 1>only just the ownership, but allowing foreign investor to participate

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<v Speaker 1>in that market and vice versa. I mean that that

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<v Speaker 1>has to be a two way street. I mean, we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen some crazy moves on the stock markets, right, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean one day that I think companies lost some five

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars, so you know, stock through downs. What can

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<v Speaker 1>the exchange do to prevent that kind of scenario? You're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about the exchanges in China. Well, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>exchanges in China have a very different um problem than

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of US because a large percentage of the

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<v Speaker 1>participant in the domestic market are retail investors. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of sentiment when people tray on rumors, and

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<v Speaker 1>so that that's what brought about the big swings, and

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<v Speaker 1>the institutional investors in China are not yet well developed.

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<v Speaker 1>So I used to say that the institution investors in

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<v Speaker 1>China behave like big retails. So instead of providing some

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<v Speaker 1>uh anchor to you know, when the market was volatile,

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<v Speaker 1>they join in the volatility and make it even more volatile.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that is certainly an area where the institutional

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<v Speaker 1>investor can improve um and I think that will bring

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<v Speaker 1>stability and more stability to the market domestic market. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much, greatly appreciated. Hong Kong Exchange is their chair.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a joy it out right now to speak

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<v Speaker 1>with a gentleman from Nigeria, Mohammed Barkindos, OPEC Secretary General,

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<v Speaker 1>and in conversation with his entourage as he came onto

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<v Speaker 1>our stage, we talked about the history of nine six

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<v Speaker 1>I think Daniel Jurgen in the prize and all of

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<v Speaker 1>the history of OPEC, and it was a cartel, and

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<v Speaker 1>you collegiately take offense with the idea that it's still

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<v Speaker 1>a cartel. If it's not a cartel in OPEC, what

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<v Speaker 1>is it. Thank you very much for having me, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>and happy New yeah, good to see you guys. Yeah, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Now you're quite correct. We are no longer a cartel.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we are a free, open, transparent organization what

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<v Speaker 1>some of the you might call a fish bowl in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. We have come a long way. For example,

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<v Speaker 1>asad today, all our data, all our data, which is

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<v Speaker 1>our key raw material, is online from sixty till date. Secondly,

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<v Speaker 1>most of our publication of the key ones monthly oil

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<v Speaker 1>market Report, our annual statistical bulletin, all online, accessible to

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<v Speaker 1>all our meetings are covered by the global media and

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<v Speaker 1>their stream. Most of the time, life were as open

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<v Speaker 1>as any organization that you can think of, and we are.

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<v Speaker 1>We're proud of what we have been able to achieve

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<v Speaker 1>since the eighties, very very transparent with the data. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>admittedly the process is less transparent to make. When someone

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<v Speaker 1>I say here on any given morning and the president

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<v Speaker 1>and sweets about OPEC, it's the president of the elephant

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<v Speaker 1>in the room. Now, the President of the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>is he around that almost? Is he the marginal producer?

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<v Speaker 1>Marginal The President is the biggest producer in the world today,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's logical for him to take more than a

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<v Speaker 1>passing interest in what opic does because of what we

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<v Speaker 1>do or fail to do, affects him, affects his industry

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<v Speaker 1>and by extension, his economy. The last downtown has proven

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<v Speaker 1>beyond an invisible doubt that both OPIC, the United States Ryan,

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<v Speaker 1>the shell producers were all in the same bold trist

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<v Speaker 1>just because of the time. I want to conflate here

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<v Speaker 1>to basic themes in questions. One is the mystery of

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<v Speaker 1>Russia tangential to OPEC, and the other is you've got

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<v Speaker 1>to get to a meeting in Vienna in April. How

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<v Speaker 1>should Russia come to the meeting with OPEC in Vienna

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<v Speaker 1>in April. It's an odd chemistry right now? How that

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<v Speaker 1>chemistry be in April. I think it's been good. So far,

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<v Speaker 1>so good. We have come a long way with our

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<v Speaker 1>Russian friends. OPEC and Russia had instituted an energy dialogue

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<v Speaker 1>as far back as two thousand and six, and during

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<v Speaker 1>this last downturn we have worked together with the Russian

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<v Speaker 1>Federation to reach the historic declaration of cooperation. We also

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<v Speaker 1>went further to implement from January twenties seventeen two last December,

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<v Speaker 1>what we had agreed upon with very high level of performance,

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<v Speaker 1>what we refer to as conformity or what you call compliance.

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<v Speaker 1>The Russians had played a leading role in the entire

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<v Speaker 1>process so far, and I've got it in good authority

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<v Speaker 1>from the Russians. They intend to continue to work with

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<v Speaker 1>us to sustain the balance that we have been able

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<v Speaker 1>to achieve on a sustainable basis, so they still have

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<v Speaker 1>a lap of partner very much. So have you got

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<v Speaker 1>any preliminary guidance sound compliance through the early party January?

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<v Speaker 1>What if he thinks I found the data. We had

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<v Speaker 1>just had our technical meetings in Vienna, bringing a close

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eighteen figures, and we took stock of the implementation

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<v Speaker 1>of the supply adjustments from January twenty seventeen toal date.

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<v Speaker 1>I can tell you that the level of performance was

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<v Speaker 1>well over for both ourselves and the non Opic. We're

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<v Speaker 1>just beginning to implement our decision on the sixth and

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<v Speaker 1>certain of December, so it's so far, so good. We're

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<v Speaker 1>on track to achieve our common objectives. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>rumors here in Davos is OPAC split the polar vortex

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<v Speaker 1>above the Arctic Circle and cause a record called in America.

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<v Speaker 1>Over the last ten days, what we focused on is

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<v Speaker 1>to ensure that inventories that had built up in the

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<v Speaker 1>last downtown too unsustainable levels do not RecA in. You

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<v Speaker 1>have visibility on that right now. I mean we count

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<v Speaker 1>boats of Singapore. But the answer to your visibility on that,

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<v Speaker 1>we are beginning to see very sharp reductions in supply

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<v Speaker 1>in conformity to the supply obligations that we agreed upon

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<v Speaker 1>on the six and seventh of December, and we have

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<v Speaker 1>seen that the market has started to respond positively. We

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<v Speaker 1>have seen the market structure, for example, Brent has just

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<v Speaker 1>flipped into backwardation. And this is just the beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>the month. Mr Kendall, thank you so much for joining

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<v Speaker 1>us to General OPEC this morning. Let's continue the conversation

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<v Speaker 1>here with the chief executive officers that arguably it is

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<v Speaker 1>the single most important executive in America on the emotions

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<v Speaker 1>of the President of the United States. Aren't Sorenson is

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<v Speaker 1>off the fabric of Minnesota out of Minnesota law among

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<v Speaker 1>other things. He is a Marriott CEO, and of course,

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<v Speaker 1>as we all know that uniqueness of being the first

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<v Speaker 1>non Marriotte to be the Marriott CEO. We can talk

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<v Speaker 1>here the summation of your travel rewards into your new

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<v Speaker 1>thing and your building. Hotels, guess what the governments and shutdown.

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<v Speaker 1>Then you're at the absolute crucible of this. I read

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<v Speaker 1>an industry article with you and John Tish about the

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<v Speaker 1>percentage of immigrants that make Marriott go each and every day.

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<v Speaker 1>Give us a percentage number of your employees that can

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<v Speaker 1>relate directly to the national debate. Well, it is. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not uncommon in our full service hotels in our urban

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<v Speaker 1>markets to have fifties, sixties, seventy nation analities represented, all legal.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, we are very careful. I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>play the other side of the president says below. Either

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<v Speaker 1>not illegal, The president has illegal immigrants. It is hotels

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<v Speaker 1>is published. How do you know that they're not undocumented.

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<v Speaker 1>We use all the tools available, including e Verify, which

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<v Speaker 1>is provided by the I and S. But we are

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<v Speaker 1>vigilant about the documentation and making sure that these people

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<v Speaker 1>have the right to work in the United States. The challenge,

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<v Speaker 1>of course government shutdown. Why because both political parties believe

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<v Speaker 1>it's more important to leave immigration unresolved than to come

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<v Speaker 1>up with a new consensus. Want to message them today,

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<v Speaker 1>then we'll se message to them today. Get talking. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the right thing is to get the government

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<v Speaker 1>open and then to get engaged in building a national

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<v Speaker 1>consensus around what fair immigration looks like. Because I think

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<v Speaker 1>if you ask people across the United States, what are

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<v Speaker 1>the rules of immigration? How do they work? People would say,

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<v Speaker 1>I have no idea. Is this confusion right now hurting

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<v Speaker 1>your business? Oh? It? It varies from market to market. Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, we're big. That's our hometown. We have a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred fifty hotels or so in the Greater Washington area.

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<v Speaker 1>Business there is down double digits since the government shutdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's the domestic tension. Let's talk about the international

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<v Speaker 1>tension between the United States and China. You've got a

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<v Speaker 1>decent window into what is happening in the world. Second

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<v Speaker 1>launched economy. How big is the slowdown? Because even a

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<v Speaker 1>company like Apple is really struggling with nit term visibility.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have good nit term visibility as to what

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<v Speaker 1>is happening in the economy at the moment? Well, we

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<v Speaker 1>know what happened last night or last week. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily know what's going to happen three months from now.

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<v Speaker 1>So if if you're asking that our ability to predict

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<v Speaker 1>that's more difficult. There are there are differences. Obviously, the negatives,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a trade war, the Chinese economy is under pressure

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<v Speaker 1>because of it. The positive, the Chinese are trying to

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<v Speaker 1>move towards more of a consumer economy. We are in

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer space, so Chinese travelers within China and abroad.

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese traveling abroad, we think is continuing to grow up,

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<v Speaker 1>even with a weaker And they're all staying at Marriott,

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<v Speaker 1>and no doubt I'm kidding. I don't know if you've

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<v Speaker 1>been at the Marriott in Tulsa two e seventy one Street, Tulsa, Oklahoma.

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<v Speaker 1>There are workers there for you who are directly affected

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<v Speaker 1>by the shutdown, directly affected by the debate over immigration,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've got a real job at Marriott. How does

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<v Speaker 1>America have confidence that they will advance and prosper in

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<v Speaker 1>the coming years. How do we as a nation get

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<v Speaker 1>behind employers like you with these first Americans? It's all

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<v Speaker 1>about jobs. You look at how benefited medical jobs you

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<v Speaker 1>people will see have medical plans. All the full time

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<v Speaker 1>folks have healthcare. Yeah, I mean they some of them

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<v Speaker 1>have it under their spouses. And so I shouldn't say,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think our participation rate even in retirement our

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<v Speaker 1>participation rate is because we think it's important to build,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, to coin and sate people fairly, but to

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<v Speaker 1>build careers for people where they can say I can

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<v Speaker 1>work not only last month or this month in one

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<v Speaker 1>of your hotels, but I can build my career. I

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.560
<v Speaker 1>can put my kids through school, I'm gonna have a house,

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:12.000
<v Speaker 1>I can I can grow in the way I want

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>to grow. And that's what the company has been about

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 1>for decades. In some ways, Over the last couple of

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:18.800
<v Speaker 1>months or so, the company has been about managing a

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:21.800
<v Speaker 1>crisis around the hacking. What's the latest on that. Have

0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:23.880
<v Speaker 1>you got any idea who was behind it and what

0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 1>the objectives were? I don't know that we'll ever know

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.360
<v Speaker 1>who was behind it. We know we know that somebody

0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:33.400
<v Speaker 1>was in Star Wars reservation system for a few years.

0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 1>Of course, we did not find that out during the diligence.

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 1>We don't think Starwood knew that before I saw the

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 1>company to us, and this was something that was discovered

0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 1>in the fall of We moved as quickly as we

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.920
<v Speaker 1>could to do two things. Want to be transparent that

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 1>what we knew we had to share with everybody else.

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 1>And second, to find out as much as we could

0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:56.840
<v Speaker 1>find out. Do you know I found out about the hacking.

0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 1>I had ten nights at the Ritz Carlton and Atlanta.

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 1>All of a sudden shot up on my Marriott rewards.

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:06.160
<v Speaker 1>Where did this come from? Everybody was affected? Right, Well,

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 1>I don't know that that's connected. Let me ask this

0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 1>because this is an important question. Actually, do we have

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:17.080
<v Speaker 1>firm wid protocols for when a passport gets scanned in

0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 1>a Marriott hotel that is now encrypted? Well? Uh, the

0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:23.720
<v Speaker 1>answer is we're getting there as quickly as we can.

0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 1>U a couple of I want to say, a couple

0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:30.000
<v Speaker 1>of comparison assports. So by the beginning of January, we

0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 1>determined as best we can that none of the payment

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 1>card information was unencrypted, which is obviously a very good thing.

0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>We determine that about five million global passports, that is

0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:47.120
<v Speaker 1>from Chinese travelers, American traveling, European travelers, about five million

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 1>were unencrypted. So that's where the that's where the concern

0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 1>comes from. There is a debate. The U State Department says,

0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.600
<v Speaker 1>don't worry about it, don't replace your passport. A passport

0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:02.000
<v Speaker 1>number without the passport is worth nothing. But there are

0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.840
<v Speaker 1>others who reasonably say we'll wait a second, that's my

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 1>passport number. I feel violated somehow by that. What you know,

0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:11.960
<v Speaker 1>what are the consequences of that? And I think for

0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.399
<v Speaker 1>us long term, we've got to make sure that everything

0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.240
<v Speaker 1>is encrypted. We've also got to make sure we comply

0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.879
<v Speaker 1>with local law. So for anybody who travels abroad in

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:24.919
<v Speaker 1>many countries around the world, were required to take your passport,

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:30.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe make a physical copy of that passport, and encrypting

0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:36.200
<v Speaker 1>a xerox copy is not necessarily the leading edge of technology.

0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:39.560
<v Speaker 1>I want one final question. If James Diamond was sitting here,

0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:41.520
<v Speaker 1>I'd ask him, as he too big as a bank,

0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:45.119
<v Speaker 1>the question every day has to be his Marriott become

0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:47.919
<v Speaker 1>too big with all the mergers, the scope to scale,

0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:51.879
<v Speaker 1>the new rewards messing that you're doing. How do you

0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:54.480
<v Speaker 1>respond to the idea of Marriott's become too big for

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.159
<v Speaker 1>the industry? Well, I think it's I think it's a

0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 1>crazy idea. I don't know that, but but but we

0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.680
<v Speaker 1>are out seven to eight percent of the hotel rooms

0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 1>in the world. Seven to eight It's hardly a massive share.

0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:11.479
<v Speaker 1>And by the way, about half of those rooms are

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.600
<v Speaker 1>run by our franchise. Is we don't even price them interesting,

0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:18.320
<v Speaker 1>so it is still a highly competitive business. And what

0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:21.600
<v Speaker 1>customers are italian Us is they want to be able

0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:24.400
<v Speaker 1>to stay with us wherever they're going, and they're going

0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.320
<v Speaker 1>lots of different places and lots of different purposes of

0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:30.359
<v Speaker 1>their trips. Sometimes they want luxury, sometimes they don't, and

0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.639
<v Speaker 1>we want to be there for you. Mr Thomason. Always

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:35.480
<v Speaker 1>got to catch up with you. Thank you very much

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:50.520
<v Speaker 1>for dropping by. Earlier on I caught up with the

0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:53.639
<v Speaker 1>Saudi Aramco CEO. I'm in NASA speaking to me about

0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 1>plans for a takeover of the big Saudi petrochemical John Sabag.

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.879
<v Speaker 1>Take a listen to what he had to say. We

0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 1>are in discussion currently with the Public Investment Fund about

0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:10.800
<v Speaker 1>the acquisition of seventy of the share of Serbic. We

0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>are in discussion with regard to the price that that

0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.160
<v Speaker 1>the stage. Do we have a ballpark figure of where

0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 1>the price will be, not yet. I'm hearing numbers of

0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.920
<v Speaker 1>in and around sixty billion. Is that a ballpark figure.

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.639
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to comment enter price because you know,

0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:31.040
<v Speaker 1>you understand this is very critical at this stage to

0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:36.639
<v Speaker 1>will be to keep silent about the negotiation that's currently

0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:40.200
<v Speaker 1>ongoing with public Investment fund. Well, the Energy Minister has

0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:44.080
<v Speaker 1>not been silent about the financing of this acquisition. He's

0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 1>looking at a potential bond issuance coming up maybe in

0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:49.240
<v Speaker 1>the second quarter. Could you comment on that. The financing

0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 1>of the potential acquisition, we are exploring. You know, we

0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:57.760
<v Speaker 1>have a significant capital program. To sustain that capital program

0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>and also considering the acquisition, the potential acquisition of the

0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 1>stake in Cybo, are blowing all options for funding. One

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.760
<v Speaker 1>of it is a bond issuance and that is something

0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 1>that we're looking at. Let's talk about the science of

0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 1>the bonds, how much could potentially come to market and

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:20.280
<v Speaker 1>the potential duration of them. Well, we are at the

0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:22.879
<v Speaker 1>stage we are, as I said, we are evaluating. We

0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 1>are when to decide soon exactly how much we would

0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:32.200
<v Speaker 1>like to take from the bond market. And so it

0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:35.320
<v Speaker 1>has not decided yet in terms of how much we

0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:37.560
<v Speaker 1>would like to do. You know what your intentions are

0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:42.480
<v Speaker 1>with the other The thirty percent is of Serbecum del

0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Conte and well it is publicly listed company is listed

0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:50.280
<v Speaker 1>in the market as the regulator giving you a waiver

0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:52.680
<v Speaker 1>whereby you don't actually have to buy the thirty percent,

0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:56.120
<v Speaker 1>Can you just buy the sevent We are in discussion

0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:59.119
<v Speaker 1>right now with Public Investment Fund first of all, about

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:03.439
<v Speaker 1>the acquisition of the seventy percent, and the issue whether

0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.760
<v Speaker 1>we need to or not is in discussion. With this

0:21:06.840 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 1>you may with regard to that, have you had any

0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:13.639
<v Speaker 1>preliminary guidance on that at all. Our intention is not

0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:17.600
<v Speaker 1>to acquire anything from the public with regard to PENT

0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:19.760
<v Speaker 1>of this stage. So if you're told that you would

0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:22.080
<v Speaker 1>have to also acquire the thirty percent, it would actually

0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 1>be a deal breaker for you, guys well, as I say,

0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:27.880
<v Speaker 1>this is something right now is in discussion, and there's

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:30.520
<v Speaker 1>no intention to acquire the thirty percent from the public.

0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:35.080
<v Speaker 1>Our intention and our strategy is to acquire the seventy

0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:39.200
<v Speaker 1>percent stake in with the Public Investment Fund. There's all

0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:42.960
<v Speaker 1>the discussion is about the seventy We have no intention

0:21:43.520 --> 0:21:46.760
<v Speaker 1>of acquiring the percent listed in the market. So the

0:21:46.760 --> 0:21:48.800
<v Speaker 1>guidance we've had from the Energy Minister is that for

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 1>the seventy percent, you will come to market, you will

0:21:51.160 --> 0:21:54.320
<v Speaker 1>issue some debt later this year, perhaps in the second quarter.

0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:55.960
<v Speaker 1>The guidance we've also had is that it will be

0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:58.399
<v Speaker 1>an international bond. Now that's going to come with some

0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:01.679
<v Speaker 1>financial disclosures. Are you prepared to disclose some of the financials?

0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:05.639
<v Speaker 1>Definitely is going to be international bond. We're currently in

0:22:06.119 --> 0:22:14.280
<v Speaker 1>discussion with with regard to how much and were and

0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:19.960
<v Speaker 1>all of that issuance for the bonds, and everything is

0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:25.679
<v Speaker 1>going well in terms of h anything that is required

0:22:25.680 --> 0:22:30.199
<v Speaker 1>by the regalitis, in terms of disclosures, in terms of

0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:35.679
<v Speaker 1>financial disclosures or any type of disclosure required by the

0:22:35.760 --> 0:22:40.199
<v Speaker 1>issuance market, we will comply. Well, let's talk about the

0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:42.199
<v Speaker 1>potential for disclosures because some of the reporting we have

0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.280
<v Speaker 1>done has shown that Sammy Ramco's books have basically got

0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.160
<v Speaker 1>zero debt and you're one of the most profitable companies

0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:51.080
<v Speaker 1>on the planet. When you disclose to issue this bond,

0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:53.439
<v Speaker 1>is that what you're going to reveal essentially that you

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:55.320
<v Speaker 1>have no debt on the book, so that you are

0:22:55.359 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 1>incredibly profitable. We will reveal our balance sheets and any

0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:03.320
<v Speaker 1>it's not you know, we have jvs. They have they

0:23:03.359 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 1>have did in the market, they have project financing that

0:23:06.119 --> 0:23:10.800
<v Speaker 1>so it's not when we uh disclosure, will disclose the

0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:13.399
<v Speaker 1>whole around Cole and all of our DV in the

0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:15.920
<v Speaker 1>Kingdom and out of the Kingdom some of them went

0:23:15.960 --> 0:23:18.560
<v Speaker 1>to their dead market. So all the data with regard

0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:22.639
<v Speaker 1>to the gearing ratio of Saudia around Cole will be shaped.

0:23:22.760 --> 0:23:25.000
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about the potential for pricing. The Kingdom came

0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:27.800
<v Speaker 1>to the market quite recently ten year money a hundred

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:30.479
<v Speaker 1>seventy five basis points at the treasuries. Do you think

0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:33.359
<v Speaker 1>when a ramco comes to market, actually spreads will be

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:37.360
<v Speaker 1>tighter for Sara a Ramco. That will be decided by

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:41.560
<v Speaker 1>the market when we go and seek the wants. But

0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:44.080
<v Speaker 1>I think our round compositions around Cole is a very

0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:48.000
<v Speaker 1>successful company. We have great results in two thousand and

0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:51.080
<v Speaker 1>eighteen and our history and our track record in terms

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:55.800
<v Speaker 1>of performance, I think, well, when we share all of

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:59.439
<v Speaker 1>that information in in addition to the disclosure, yeah, the

0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:05.480
<v Speaker 1>market will decide and we have to agree on ahead

0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:07.000
<v Speaker 1>of that. You might have to talk to a credit

0:24:07.080 --> 0:24:09.159
<v Speaker 1>rights and agency. You speaking to the credit writing agency

0:24:09.280 --> 0:24:13.879
<v Speaker 1>right now? We have we did engage a credit rating agencies.

0:24:13.880 --> 0:24:15.960
<v Speaker 1>So if we have all of the information required, are

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:17.720
<v Speaker 1>you going to have a better credit writing agency than

0:24:17.760 --> 0:24:20.520
<v Speaker 1>the Kingdom? Well, we are, as I said, we are

0:24:20.560 --> 0:24:25.879
<v Speaker 1>maintaining the Kingdom softeign credit ratings and what event we

0:24:25.960 --> 0:24:28.680
<v Speaker 1>have from the other rating agencies we will be shaping

0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:32.879
<v Speaker 1>when we go with the disclosure. The CEO of sari

0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:35.080
<v Speaker 1>Aramco there am in NASA speaking to me a little

0:24:35.080 --> 0:24:51.520
<v Speaker 1>bit earlier on if this is with our question our

0:24:51.680 --> 0:24:56.360
<v Speaker 1>interview of Davos on this issue of Brexit. For those

0:24:56.359 --> 0:25:00.080
<v Speaker 1>of us foreign it is baffeding in his extraordinary is

0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:03.840
<v Speaker 1>a modest journalist at the Evening Standard, wandered by Mr

0:25:03.880 --> 0:25:07.800
<v Speaker 1>Cameron's government to be chancelled the Exchequer, but far more

0:25:07.920 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 1>importantly to us to care about design. He is an

0:25:11.320 --> 0:25:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Osborne of Osborne in a little Definitive and Design. What

0:25:16.160 --> 0:25:19.399
<v Speaker 1>was it like in your childhood bedroom? Did they change

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the wallpaper every ninety days? Well, my dad set up

0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:25.879
<v Speaker 1>Osborne Little of design company and yeah, well you know,

0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:28.320
<v Speaker 1>we had to showcase the product and there were always

0:25:28.320 --> 0:25:30.359
<v Speaker 1>new collections and said the house was always big. Read

0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:33.040
<v Speaker 1>you'd like to warpaper and they came in they said, no,

0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:36.919
<v Speaker 1>we're moving this town every year. I got my bedroom reading.

0:25:37.240 --> 0:25:40.040
<v Speaker 1>This is wonderful jump bringing bringing the channel. George's a

0:25:40.040 --> 0:25:42.000
<v Speaker 1>massive change for you now being the editor of a

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:45.000
<v Speaker 1>newspaper before that, of course the chance of the exchequer.

0:25:45.359 --> 0:25:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Did you ever think we'd be where we are now

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:50.800
<v Speaker 1>even after we found out the outcome of the vote

0:25:50.840 --> 0:25:53.440
<v Speaker 1>a couple of years ago. I thought in the end

0:25:53.520 --> 0:25:56.040
<v Speaker 1>we would hit a point where the promise that you

0:25:56.080 --> 0:25:58.080
<v Speaker 1>can leave the EU and have all the benefits of

0:25:58.080 --> 0:26:02.080
<v Speaker 1>EU membership would run out of road. I guess I

0:26:02.160 --> 0:26:04.760
<v Speaker 1>hoped that there would be a more conciliatory approach, that

0:26:04.840 --> 0:26:07.000
<v Speaker 1>we would find a middle way through, like a sort

0:26:07.040 --> 0:26:11.080
<v Speaker 1>of Norway model for Britain outside the EU, but still

0:26:11.359 --> 0:26:13.919
<v Speaker 1>pretty closely aligned the U. That feels to me like

0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:18.440
<v Speaker 1>it's gone and we're confronting increasingly the two choices, which

0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:21.719
<v Speaker 1>is leave the EU without a deal at the end

0:26:21.720 --> 0:26:25.800
<v Speaker 1>of March or delay or stop Brexit. That that's emerging

0:26:25.840 --> 0:26:27.800
<v Speaker 1>now as the two big choices of the country faces

0:26:27.800 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 1>and the former Prime Minister David Cameron did kind of

0:26:30.119 --> 0:26:32.840
<v Speaker 1>make the process sound quite straightforward. If the outcome of

0:26:32.880 --> 0:26:35.160
<v Speaker 1>the vote was that the United Kingdom voted to leave,

0:26:35.600 --> 0:26:38.240
<v Speaker 1>he would go across the Brussels and trigger Article fifty.

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:41.080
<v Speaker 1>As we found out, both of you eventually ended up

0:26:41.160 --> 0:26:43.920
<v Speaker 1>leaving the government. Do you think both of you still

0:26:43.960 --> 0:26:46.679
<v Speaker 1>have a certain amount of responsibility to the outcome of

0:26:46.680 --> 0:26:48.520
<v Speaker 1>what has happened in the UK, since it was your

0:26:48.560 --> 0:26:51.440
<v Speaker 1>government that did bring the vote to the British people. Well,

0:26:51.520 --> 0:26:53.919
<v Speaker 1>I would say, first of all, David Cameron, erging myself

0:26:53.920 --> 0:26:56.479
<v Speaker 1>and others did spell out to the country that there

0:26:56.480 --> 0:26:59.159
<v Speaker 1>would be very serious consequences of leaving the EU, not

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:02.080
<v Speaker 1>just for the economy, but for our security relationships and

0:27:02.080 --> 0:27:04.959
<v Speaker 1>indeed the Western Alliance. And I would argue that the

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:08.520
<v Speaker 1>process in some ways has been quite straightforward. We've triggered

0:27:08.600 --> 0:27:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Article fifty, there's been a negotiation, it's all been done

0:27:11.359 --> 0:27:14.680
<v Speaker 1>in a kind of orderly way. The problem isn't the process,

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:18.200
<v Speaker 1>it's the policy. What do people want our relationship with

0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:21.280
<v Speaker 1>the European Union to be? Do we want no relationship

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:23.240
<v Speaker 1>at all? Or do we want a very close relationship

0:27:23.320 --> 0:27:26.320
<v Speaker 1>and that remains as contested as possible. So you did that.

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:29.480
<v Speaker 1>That's that's the hard politics. That's not about the procedure

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:31.640
<v Speaker 1>or the process, or whether we have the right civil

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:36.800
<v Speaker 1>servants or the right negotiating team. It's about fundamental contradictions

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:38.960
<v Speaker 1>in what Grexit promised. But I think, to be fair,

0:27:39.040 --> 0:27:40.480
<v Speaker 1>I don't think many of us thought it would take

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:42.159
<v Speaker 1>that long as long as it did to trigger an

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Article fifty. Yet it did. It took a number of

0:27:44.000 --> 0:27:45.960
<v Speaker 1>months where many people thought it would happen immediately, and

0:27:45.960 --> 0:27:48.000
<v Speaker 1>here we are the clock is ticking and it looks

0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:50.480
<v Speaker 1>like we're running out of time. Would your advice be

0:27:50.560 --> 0:27:51.959
<v Speaker 1>to the government, And I'm not sure if they're going

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:53.520
<v Speaker 1>to listen to it, George, And I'm not sure you

0:27:53.520 --> 0:27:55.639
<v Speaker 1>think they would either, But would your advice be to

0:27:55.720 --> 0:27:58.639
<v Speaker 1>delay Article fifty to push it back? Well, I think

0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:02.160
<v Speaker 1>it's just not except stable for this country, my country

0:28:02.160 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 1>to leave the European Union without a deal. That is

0:28:04.320 --> 0:28:07.000
<v Speaker 1>a big shock to the British economy and indeed the

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:10.679
<v Speaker 1>European economy. It does enormous long term reputation or damage

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:13.360
<v Speaker 1>to the UK and it's not the way that a

0:28:13.359 --> 0:28:17.399
<v Speaker 1>advanced nation should behave. So if we can't get a deal,

0:28:17.440 --> 0:28:20.160
<v Speaker 1>if there's no Norway on the table, for example, then

0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:22.879
<v Speaker 1>we have to delay brexit. If you're negotiating that with

0:28:22.920 --> 0:28:25.800
<v Speaker 1>the Europeans, George, is it realistic to take it off

0:28:25.800 --> 0:28:28.240
<v Speaker 1>the table? Well, there are in the negotiation with the

0:28:28.280 --> 0:28:32.160
<v Speaker 1>European Union is over. The British government signed a deal

0:28:32.200 --> 0:28:34.880
<v Speaker 1>in December and you know, you can have any number

0:28:34.880 --> 0:28:36.840
<v Speaker 1>of European leaders here at Davos come on this show

0:28:36.880 --> 0:28:39.000
<v Speaker 1>and they will tell you there is no prospect of

0:28:39.080 --> 0:28:41.560
<v Speaker 1>reopening out talk. And the only person who believes there

0:28:41.600 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 1>is at the moment is the reason May her cabinet

0:28:43.520 --> 0:28:46.520
<v Speaker 1>doesn't think the British Parliament doesn't think it. The truth

0:28:46.640 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 1>is the choices either now leave without a deal, or

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:55.160
<v Speaker 1>perhaps everyone changes their mind on treasons may deal or

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:58.560
<v Speaker 1>delay Brexit in some way, either through referendum or indeed

0:28:58.560 --> 0:29:01.600
<v Speaker 1>an election, which I think is by the and underappreciated

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:04.000
<v Speaker 1>outcome of this whole. I think it could be an election.

0:29:04.040 --> 0:29:05.920
<v Speaker 1>I definitely think I could be election. He's gonna tricker

0:29:05.960 --> 0:29:08.360
<v Speaker 1>that well. At the end, what will happen is there'll

0:29:08.400 --> 0:29:11.480
<v Speaker 1>be a confidence vote in the British Parliament and a

0:29:11.600 --> 0:29:14.960
<v Speaker 1>small number of Conservative MPs will switch side in that

0:29:15.040 --> 0:29:17.720
<v Speaker 1>vote because they would rather have an election than see

0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:21.800
<v Speaker 1>our country leave the European units. George my advantage here

0:29:21.800 --> 0:29:24.480
<v Speaker 1>as I'm an outsider and for television and radio reduce

0:29:24.520 --> 0:29:27.120
<v Speaker 1>civics one on one ear and re explain the Cameron

0:29:27.160 --> 0:29:30.800
<v Speaker 1>Osborne is the same party as Prime Minister Man. I

0:29:30.800 --> 0:29:33.520
<v Speaker 1>think some people maybe no don't realize that they aren't

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:36.800
<v Speaker 1>even reading the evening standard eight days a week. With

0:29:37.040 --> 0:29:41.360
<v Speaker 1>that said, his Prime Minister May, has she passed herself

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:44.520
<v Speaker 1>by date? I was thunderstruck. There wasn't a window there

0:29:44.840 --> 0:29:48.880
<v Speaker 1>for her to gracefully resign and move on to a

0:29:48.960 --> 0:29:53.080
<v Speaker 1>new Conservative majority. Did she miss that opportunity? Well, the

0:29:53.120 --> 0:29:56.160
<v Speaker 1>reason Mays challenge i'd be like was that she called

0:29:56.160 --> 0:29:59.480
<v Speaker 1>a general election last year and lost the majority that

0:29:59.560 --> 0:30:02.120
<v Speaker 1>David running, myself and others are built up so she

0:30:02.280 --> 0:30:09.800
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have any political authority and crucially in the British constitutions,

0:30:09.840 --> 0:30:13.520
<v Speaker 1>for a grace from the Prime Minister to move away

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:17.080
<v Speaker 1>from the stubbornness and just step aside for a new vision,

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:20.800
<v Speaker 1>a new set of gargles, a new optics within your majority.

0:30:21.080 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that's realistic because I think she's going

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:25.160
<v Speaker 1>to stay. I think what's more realistic, and what she

0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:28.400
<v Speaker 1>should do is take this threat of a no deal

0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:31.800
<v Speaker 1>off the table. She can do that, you know, actually

0:30:31.800 --> 0:30:35.360
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't need anyone else's consent to do it, otherwise she'll

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:38.520
<v Speaker 1>allow the Parliament into that space. But here's a crucial

0:30:38.520 --> 0:30:41.840
<v Speaker 1>and again underappreciated point. You'll hear on shows like this,

0:30:41.960 --> 0:30:44.160
<v Speaker 1>it said that there's a majority in the British Parliament

0:30:44.200 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 1>to stop a no deal Brexit. Now that is the

0:30:47.000 --> 0:30:48.960
<v Speaker 1>default of the moment. We're leaving the EU at the

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:50.840
<v Speaker 1>end of March, whether we have a deal or not.

0:30:51.560 --> 0:30:53.959
<v Speaker 1>And in order to stop it, it's not good enough

0:30:53.960 --> 0:30:56.800
<v Speaker 1>to say as a majority against leaving with that majority

0:30:56.880 --> 0:30:59.160
<v Speaker 1>has to coalesce around one of the options, either an

0:30:59.160 --> 0:31:03.160
<v Speaker 1>alternative deal or delaying Brexit, or asking you to delay Brexit,

0:31:03.280 --> 0:31:05.360
<v Speaker 1>or a general election or a referendum. At the moment,

0:31:05.440 --> 0:31:07.800
<v Speaker 1>the parliament's quite divided, so you know, I would say,

0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 1>looking at financial markets, you've got a price in the

0:31:12.000 --> 0:31:14.600
<v Speaker 1>tail risk that Britain does leave without a deal, and

0:31:14.640 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 1>then you have to say, increasingly likely the Britain is

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:19.920
<v Speaker 1>going to remain in the EU at the end of March.

0:31:20.120 --> 0:31:21.400
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how many people have told you this,

0:31:21.440 --> 0:31:23.960
<v Speaker 1>but you sound a little like Jeremy Corbyn. Isn't that

0:31:24.000 --> 0:31:27.120
<v Speaker 1>Jeremy Corban. No one has ever told me that. Isn't

0:31:27.160 --> 0:31:30.560
<v Speaker 1>that Jeremy I think Corbyn is. You know, he's partly

0:31:30.560 --> 0:31:34.240
<v Speaker 1>being what all opposition leaders are there to cause trouble

0:31:34.280 --> 0:31:35.920
<v Speaker 1>for the government, and of course sitting on a very

0:31:35.960 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>divided party himself unwilling to come to a single conclusion.

0:31:39.880 --> 0:31:42.240
<v Speaker 1>The problem with delaying, I'm telling you what I think

0:31:42.320 --> 0:31:45.000
<v Speaker 1>is going to happen. Problem with delaying is it it

0:31:45.040 --> 0:31:47.920
<v Speaker 1>doesn't actually confront the choice Britain now needs to make.

0:31:48.600 --> 0:31:50.560
<v Speaker 1>It puts it off, of course, and that's why it's

0:31:50.560 --> 0:31:52.960
<v Speaker 1>a convenient bucket for people to go into. But I

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:56.760
<v Speaker 1>think we are unless and I'm quite I think I'm

0:31:56.880 --> 0:32:01.440
<v Speaker 1>quite pessthemistic about this. Unless somehow we can construct some

0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:05.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of deal which takes Britain out of the EU

0:32:05.600 --> 0:32:07.800
<v Speaker 1>but keeps us in things like the European Economic Erea,

0:32:07.880 --> 0:32:09.640
<v Speaker 1>which I, by the way, would think is a fairer

0:32:09.640 --> 0:32:12.320
<v Speaker 1>reflection of a vote that split the country in half.

0:32:12.880 --> 0:32:14.880
<v Speaker 1>Then we're going to be confronted with the only way

0:32:14.920 --> 0:32:17.920
<v Speaker 1>to stop leaving the EAR without a deal, which is

0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 1>stopping Brexit. How do we then look to the arch

0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:25.440
<v Speaker 1>Brexiteers I'm going to mention Boris Johnson as well, who

0:32:25.480 --> 0:32:28.280
<v Speaker 1>say we have a nostalgia in a vision for doing

0:32:28.320 --> 0:32:32.240
<v Speaker 1>our own trade deals, doing being unilateral in our view

0:32:32.280 --> 0:32:35.680
<v Speaker 1>of the world, literally harkening back to the Empire, if

0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:41.040
<v Speaker 1>you will. Nonsense, it's nonsense, but they have a certain mass.

0:32:41.200 --> 0:32:44.160
<v Speaker 1>How much would you gauge as an enormous great billboard

0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 1>on the side of the big hotel here in Davos,

0:32:46.560 --> 0:32:49.320
<v Speaker 1>which is sponsored paypful that of the British taxpayer, which

0:32:49.360 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 1>is Britain is the sponsor of free trade. If we

0:32:52.440 --> 0:32:54.680
<v Speaker 1>leave the U without a deal, we are engaging in

0:32:54.720 --> 0:32:57.200
<v Speaker 1>the biggest act of protectionism in the entire history of

0:32:57.240 --> 0:32:59.520
<v Speaker 1>the United Kingdom's got nothing to do with free trade.

0:32:59.840 --> 0:33:04.800
<v Speaker 1>It's about erecting trade barriers with our nearest and biggest people.

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:06.960
<v Speaker 1>Some people that George would say that the European Union

0:33:07.120 --> 0:33:10.400
<v Speaker 1>it'sself embodied staff it is the protectionist regime in the

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:11.880
<v Speaker 1>ice of many people. In fact, in the eyes of

0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:13.400
<v Speaker 1>many people that voted to leave, that is what the

0:33:13.400 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 1>European Union stands for. You're either in our club and

0:33:16.560 --> 0:33:18.680
<v Speaker 1>that's great and you can enjoy the benefits of that.

0:33:18.720 --> 0:33:21.080
<v Speaker 1>But if you're outside of it, go fish. You're on

0:33:21.120 --> 0:33:23.440
<v Speaker 1>your own. And aren't we living that at the moment?

0:33:23.480 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 1>Aren't we finding out that that's what the European Union

0:33:25.400 --> 0:33:29.080
<v Speaker 1>stands for. Well, I would argue that these are countries

0:33:29.120 --> 0:33:32.200
<v Speaker 1>like France, Germany, these are our biggest export markets were

0:33:32.240 --> 0:33:34.760
<v Speaker 1>in a free trade zone with them. I'm all for

0:33:34.800 --> 0:33:37.760
<v Speaker 1>the EU doing trade deals with America, Japan which has

0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 1>just been concluded, China, even the United Kingdom to a

0:33:40.680 --> 0:33:42.600
<v Speaker 1>trade deal with the United States of America. Well, I

0:33:42.680 --> 0:33:44.640
<v Speaker 1>think the first priority is to have a trade deal

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:47.080
<v Speaker 1>with our nearest neighbors, which were about to tear up

0:33:47.680 --> 0:33:50.480
<v Speaker 1>if we leave without a deal. And then, you know,

0:33:50.560 --> 0:33:53.720
<v Speaker 1>the European Union is the best platform through which you

0:33:53.760 --> 0:33:55.719
<v Speaker 1>can get a good trade deal with the US, and

0:33:55.800 --> 0:33:58.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, things like permanent membership with the customs you

0:33:58.840 --> 0:34:02.520
<v Speaker 1>could have been a route to a deal that more

0:34:02.600 --> 0:34:05.160
<v Speaker 1>MPs would have supported. The first time I saw your government,

0:34:05.160 --> 0:34:07.440
<v Speaker 1>you were in minority. Remember David Kerman. It was two

0:34:07.440 --> 0:34:10.160
<v Speaker 1>swords lanes apart in the House of Commons and David

0:34:10.239 --> 0:34:14.320
<v Speaker 1>Karen was going against Gordon Brown and it wasn't like America.

0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:19.120
<v Speaker 1>Are you advantaged or disadvantaged that Jeremy Corbyn is Labor

0:34:19.200 --> 0:34:23.080
<v Speaker 1>Party head? Would this debate be radically different if there

0:34:23.120 --> 0:34:26.319
<v Speaker 1>was a different leader of the minority party. Well, the

0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:29.400
<v Speaker 1>answer is yes. And it's very sad for those of

0:34:29.719 --> 0:34:32.680
<v Speaker 1>us who care about a parliamentary democracy in our country's

0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:36.040
<v Speaker 1>reputation that Labor is not led by a much more

0:34:36.080 --> 0:34:38.759
<v Speaker 1>moderate social democrat of the kind of has led the

0:34:38.800 --> 0:34:40.839
<v Speaker 1>labor body for all of my lifetime. I think if

0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:43.480
<v Speaker 1>Labor had that kind of leader, well they'll probably now

0:34:43.520 --> 0:34:45.880
<v Speaker 1>be a labor government as it happens. But even if

0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:47.880
<v Speaker 1>there weren't a labor government right now, we would be

0:34:47.920 --> 0:34:50.880
<v Speaker 1>on the cusp of a big labor government with a

0:34:50.880 --> 0:34:54.440
<v Speaker 1>big majority. But we're not because the country is understandably

0:34:54.520 --> 0:34:57.000
<v Speaker 1>very nervous to Jeremy Corbyn, and ultimately in the country

0:34:57.000 --> 0:34:59.000
<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to have a choice. I don't think of

0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:02.640
<v Speaker 1>simply Jerry Aremy Corbyn or Jacob Riesmok. Who's the going

0:35:02.680 --> 0:35:05.319
<v Speaker 1>to of brexiteer type. You know there there is a

0:35:05.360 --> 0:35:08.600
<v Speaker 1>center there which is looking and waiting for its voice. Well,

0:35:08.680 --> 0:35:10.520
<v Speaker 1>let me give you a choice. What would be the

0:35:10.520 --> 0:35:14.800
<v Speaker 1>worst outcome for the UK economy a heart Brexit or

0:35:14.880 --> 0:35:17.359
<v Speaker 1>Jeremy Corbyn as the prime minister. Well, I think one

0:35:17.400 --> 0:35:18.799
<v Speaker 1>leads to the other, so I'm not sure they are

0:35:18.840 --> 0:35:21.719
<v Speaker 1>a choice. I think, you know, I think Brexit is

0:35:21.760 --> 0:35:24.920
<v Speaker 1>a what's the Brexit argument? It's globalization has failed you,

0:35:25.360 --> 0:35:27.960
<v Speaker 1>The elites have failed you. We need to completely change

0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:29.320
<v Speaker 1>the way we run the country for last for or

0:35:29.360 --> 0:35:31.759
<v Speaker 1>five years. That is Jeremy Corbyn's argument as well. So

0:35:31.880 --> 0:35:35.760
<v Speaker 1>Brexit opens the door to Corbyn. Corbyn would be very damaging,

0:35:35.760 --> 0:35:38.320
<v Speaker 1>of course, to Britain's reputation as a home of business

0:35:38.320 --> 0:35:41.439
<v Speaker 1>and free markets. But we're already doing an enormous amount

0:35:41.440 --> 0:35:44.680
<v Speaker 1>of damage by choosing to leave the EU and erect

0:35:44.800 --> 0:35:48.239
<v Speaker 1>a protectionist barriers and tear up a key feature of

0:35:48.280 --> 0:35:50.560
<v Speaker 1>the Western life. You're just joining us on Bloomberg Radio,

0:35:50.640 --> 0:35:54.360
<v Speaker 1>George Osborne with US journalist as well as we talked

0:35:54.360 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 1>the emotions of his United Kingdom. I want to turn

0:35:56.640 --> 0:36:01.120
<v Speaker 1>the journalism. I was thunderstruck by the vibrancy of London newspapers.

0:36:01.120 --> 0:36:04.359
<v Speaker 1>You're at the Evening Standard and just the cacophany there,

0:36:04.400 --> 0:36:07.279
<v Speaker 1>I would say, is radically different than what we have

0:36:07.880 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 1>in America, where there seems to be much more of

0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:13.680
<v Speaker 1>a sameness to it. Is the joy of British journalism

0:36:13.680 --> 0:36:16.279
<v Speaker 1>and print journalism is it is it at risk of

0:36:16.360 --> 0:36:19.279
<v Speaker 1>going away as it has in the United States. Well,

0:36:19.680 --> 0:36:22.600
<v Speaker 1>first was great fun editing a newspaper and for me,

0:36:22.800 --> 0:36:26.279
<v Speaker 1>you know, I found a fund and politics, I found

0:36:26.360 --> 0:36:28.680
<v Speaker 1>a great second career, and you know, I'm always trying

0:36:28.719 --> 0:36:31.279
<v Speaker 1>to speak for our many readers with the kind of

0:36:31.280 --> 0:36:34.040
<v Speaker 1>classic London newspaper have been for a hundred nine years,

0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:36.840
<v Speaker 1>and I want us to have a broader national readership.

0:36:37.040 --> 0:36:38.719
<v Speaker 1>I think in the end, you know, you've got to

0:36:38.760 --> 0:36:42.360
<v Speaker 1>make it entertaining. In when I was a kid in London,

0:36:42.640 --> 0:36:44.759
<v Speaker 1>the Evening Standard was the way you found out what

0:36:44.800 --> 0:36:46.560
<v Speaker 1>was going on in the world. These days you turn

0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:48.840
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg, right, you can get a collection that you

0:36:48.880 --> 0:36:51.880
<v Speaker 1>can come back. You can get a constant commentary on

0:36:51.960 --> 0:36:53.239
<v Speaker 1>what's going on in the world. So by the time

0:36:53.239 --> 0:36:55.680
<v Speaker 1>you pick up my newspaper in the afternoon, we'll know

0:36:56.520 --> 0:36:59.080
<v Speaker 1>this has happened in financial markets, or this plane has crashed,

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:01.319
<v Speaker 1>or this government is full. And you know what we

0:37:01.400 --> 0:37:03.319
<v Speaker 1>can do is provide a context to it. We can

0:37:03.320 --> 0:37:06.200
<v Speaker 1>make it entertaining, We can inform you. So you cover

0:37:06.239 --> 0:37:09.080
<v Speaker 1>English football. We do cover English football, particularly my team

0:37:09.160 --> 0:37:12.799
<v Speaker 1>Chelsea really the other day and they didn't do so

0:37:12.800 --> 0:37:20.200
<v Speaker 1>well with a cab drum Thomas and I like the Tots,

0:37:20.360 --> 0:37:23.080
<v Speaker 1>or like this team or the bubbles bubble got are

0:37:23.080 --> 0:37:25.680
<v Speaker 1>you thinking of west Ham? Was Ham? Yes? And the

0:37:25.719 --> 0:37:29.520
<v Speaker 1>cab drivers lecturing me on our Arsenal. Is that crush

0:37:30.360 --> 0:37:32.680
<v Speaker 1>It was the Cabby that predicted the outcome. Yes, how

0:37:32.719 --> 0:37:35.440
<v Speaker 1>we got a big Tottenham v. Chelsea game on Thursday

0:37:35.480 --> 0:37:37.640
<v Speaker 1>night which I'm going home for. Are you you're leaving?

0:37:38.000 --> 0:37:41.080
<v Speaker 1>This is a surveillance pre exclusive George Osbourne leaving a

0:37:41.080 --> 0:37:43.880
<v Speaker 1>happy valley to go home for the game. Final question,

0:37:44.520 --> 0:37:48.359
<v Speaker 1>is the a road back into politics for George Osbourne? Yes,

0:37:48.440 --> 0:37:50.480
<v Speaker 1>there might well be, but at the moment I'm enjoying

0:37:50.520 --> 0:37:52.200
<v Speaker 1>my life outside and I don't want to go back,

0:37:53.160 --> 0:37:56.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, to this current situation. You know, I want

0:37:56.920 --> 0:37:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to work on things that are building up our country's reputation,

0:37:59.640 --> 0:38:01.680
<v Speaker 1>not to me. So you're waiting for this to get

0:38:01.760 --> 0:38:04.560
<v Speaker 1>cleaned up, and then I'm very like I had a

0:38:04.680 --> 0:38:07.800
<v Speaker 1>very lucky career in past, became chance to work with

0:38:07.840 --> 0:38:10.640
<v Speaker 1>a primary very young age as well. Yeah it was,

0:38:11.400 --> 0:38:12.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, and I like with David Cameron and a

0:38:12.960 --> 0:38:15.120
<v Speaker 1>team I really and who we were all, you know,

0:38:15.600 --> 0:38:18.600
<v Speaker 1>a happy band of brothers and sisters. You know, that's

0:38:18.600 --> 0:38:20.919
<v Speaker 1>not British politics at the moment. So I would take

0:38:20.920 --> 0:38:23.759
<v Speaker 1>some persuading that I give up what I'm doing now

0:38:23.800 --> 0:38:26.840
<v Speaker 1>to go back to that. Georgeos greater catch the former

0:38:27.000 --> 0:38:30.920
<v Speaker 1>UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and a Chelsea fan who

0:38:31.000 --> 0:38:34.560
<v Speaker 1>knew that there in London right Westley were blue. Do

0:38:34.600 --> 0:38:35.960
<v Speaker 1>you know what? We go back and forth on this

0:38:36.040 --> 0:38:40.800
<v Speaker 1>so much West London, Chelsea, East London, West North London

0:38:41.520 --> 0:38:49.640
<v Speaker 1>and Crystal South London's Crystal Palace. Okay, well I knew

0:38:49.680 --> 0:38:53.880
<v Speaker 1>they were sort of there. Liverpool. Yeah, well most London

0:38:53.880 --> 0:38:57.879
<v Speaker 1>clubs must say this. And this happened this weekend while

0:38:57.920 --> 0:38:59.879
<v Speaker 1>I was in I think I was in. I guess

0:39:00.000 --> 0:39:03.000
<v Speaker 1>it was in London. You guys do it right, because

0:39:03.040 --> 0:39:05.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, I kid you about how guys fall down

0:39:05.000 --> 0:39:07.840
<v Speaker 1>and all that. The fiasco in the National Football League

0:39:08.200 --> 0:39:12.080
<v Speaker 1>over the last week and those two very flawed football

0:39:12.160 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 1>games make you guys look like Tom likes the fact

0:39:14.600 --> 0:39:16.600
<v Speaker 1>that the clock still run. The clock still goes, and

0:39:16.600 --> 0:39:19.240
<v Speaker 1>they don't stop the game and go back to the decision.

0:39:20.480 --> 0:39:24.840
<v Speaker 1>That was brilliant. But that's real. Seriously, anitating George Osborne

0:39:24.880 --> 0:39:28.000
<v Speaker 1>and the Patriots. Well, can we make some news here

0:39:28.239 --> 0:39:31.920
<v Speaker 1>Rams or Patriots? Oh well, you got about the Patriots,

0:39:31.920 --> 0:39:33.600
<v Speaker 1>haven't in this contest? I don't know. To me, it's

0:39:33.600 --> 0:39:35.800
<v Speaker 1>like Chelsea the Tarts. I don't have a clue we

0:39:35.880 --> 0:39:41.279
<v Speaker 1>get you saying spurs Spurs Tom Keay alongside me. I'm

0:39:41.360 --> 0:39:44.319
<v Speaker 1>Jonathan Thorow here in Davil, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum.

0:39:44.360 --> 0:39:53.319
<v Speaker 1>A special thanks to George Osborne. Thanks for listening to

0:39:53.360 --> 0:39:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

0:39:57.960 --> 0:40:03.799
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

0:40:03.840 --> 0:40:07.160
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can

0:40:07.200 --> 0:40:10.360
<v Speaker 1>always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio