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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pop back all Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen, twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five,

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Speaker 1: fifty and the kick.

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Speaker 3: Us Dry Comics, Football World Stunners, Oh my goodness, he

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Speaker 3: stumble and football It's the latter of Turner Tyr on

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Speaker 3: the episode do you believe that a table off the

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Speaker 3: fil the nights by?

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Speaker 2: It's not the size of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the size of the fighting. Get all, What's up

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Speaker 2: the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast

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Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings. This is the twenty twenty five college

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Speaker 2: football Bowl season betting preview Park one. I'm stuck in

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Speaker 2: joining me as always my fellow BBOC Coast Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: In addition to the G five guys Mike Calbreys and

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Speaker 2: Josh Nun aka Duck, we will have seven bowl previews.

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Speaker 2: This is the first of seven that includes National Championship

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Speaker 2: semi finals. Today we will go through I think, well

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Speaker 2: well we can count. Duck's gonna give us thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the Celebration Bowl, which really kicks things off between South

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Speaker 2: Carolina State and Prairie View. But we're going to go

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Speaker 2: through the LA Bowl, which is going away. It's the

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Speaker 2: last a LA Bowl ever between Boise and Washington. Will

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Speaker 2: hit the Veterans Bowl, the Cure Bowl, the sixty eight

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Speaker 2: Ventures Bowl, the Xbox Bowl, a new bowl this year,

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Speaker 2: the Myrtle Beach Bowl, the Gasparia Bowl, and the first

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Speaker 2: College Football Playoff game between Oklahoma and Alabama. When we

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Speaker 2: do Part two early next week, we will cover the

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Speaker 2: next batch of bowl games that will also include the

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Speaker 2: three other college Football Playoffs first round games. Gentlemen, it's

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Speaker 2: been a wild few days in college football. Sharon Moore

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Speaker 2: is gone. We'll see what happens with Michigan. We had

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Speaker 2: ten teams in total opt out of bowls, which is

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Speaker 2: why we have teams like Mississippi State Rice in bowl

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Speaker 2: games with five and seven records. Could look at it

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Speaker 2: one of two ways. I like to take the optimistic

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Speaker 2: view that maybe we get more teams, a higher percentage

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Speaker 2: of teams that care because the teams that didn't want

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Speaker 2: to be there said we're not going to play. And

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Speaker 2: you know, a team like Missippi State is five and seven,

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Speaker 2: they accepted Rice, Well, it's a good chance because they

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Speaker 2: accepted that they want to be there. Also, a lot

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Speaker 2: of discourse around, Oh, there's two group of five teams

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Speaker 2: in we have to change everything. They're not going to

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Speaker 2: be able to compete. Stop it. It's not the end

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Speaker 2: of the world. I want to notre d ay Men

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Speaker 2: over Alabama. But that's why we have spreads and don't ever.

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Speaker 2: It's it's one football game. Anyone could beat anyone. People

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Speaker 2: are having this discourse after and by the way, these

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Speaker 2: power programs poach all the best players from the group

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Speaker 2: of five. It's okay to have them. Let them have

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Speaker 2: their moment. We just watched North Dakota State, a minus

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Speaker 2: three hundred favor to win at all, loses a twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half point favor and get dominated by

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Speaker 2: Illinois State. Upsets can happen. I will still be watching

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Speaker 2: all these games. I love all of the teams. That's

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Speaker 2: my rank.

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Speaker 3: Are you lobbying for James Madison win or like, are

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Speaker 3: like too lane? Like what are we doing here? Like

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Speaker 3: we're not.

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Speaker 2: I will say, like you think upsets happened in college

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Speaker 2: football all the time? Like we would have said, No

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Speaker 2: one said, I don't cool, back me up on this.

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Speaker 2: Did anyone in the world think that North Dakota State

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Speaker 2: was gonna lose out right last week, nobody, nobody, did

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Speaker 2: anyone think that UNBC was gonna beat Virginia as a

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Speaker 2: sixteen seed. No, that's the beauty of sports. And by

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Speaker 2: the way I mean I played, We're not gonna talk

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Speaker 2: about this the in to day I already played. I

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Speaker 2: played some ole miss. I'm a little nervous about someone

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Speaker 2: like JMU and too Lane they're gonna use I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be overmatch, but they're going to use all

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Speaker 2: this material. This group of five hate. We don't deserve

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Speaker 2: to be in there for the next two weeks leading

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Speaker 2: up to the game. So we'll see if it leads

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Speaker 2: to any results. But everything that I mentioned, everything else

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Speaker 2: that's going on in the college football playoff world with

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame, and do you have any initial thoughts before

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Speaker 2: we dive into all these games? Breeze, I'll start with you. Well, first,

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Speaker 2: thanks for having me and Doug. You know a G

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Speaker 2: five addition to a usual a P four focus show.

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Speaker 1: Usually it's a safety issue. You can't have us here

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Speaker 1: at the G five level competing. Shout out to Bud

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Speaker 1: Elliott for that piece of garbage. I think it's interesting

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Speaker 1: you bring up a lot of the good points, which

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Speaker 1: is all of a sudden, Oregon is, you know, the

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Speaker 1: two thousand and one Miami Hurricanes. They can't lose. There's

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Speaker 1: no way that this game can get mucked up. I

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Speaker 1: didn't watch them get mucked up against Iowa, play their

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Speaker 1: food against Wisconsin. Oh it was raining, Oh they had injuries.

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Speaker 1: Like I just look at it pretty simply. In terms

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Speaker 1: of Oregon, when they run the ball really well, they're

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Speaker 1: a great team. They can be just about anybody in

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Speaker 1: the country. If you can slow down their running game,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, things get interesting. James Madison has

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Speaker 1: one calling card. They get the best run defense in

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Speaker 1: the G five. They're numbers in terms of tackles for loss.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna win the game out right.

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Speaker 1: I think this whole narrative though, that they don't deserve

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Speaker 1: to be on the same field their community college is

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Speaker 1: going to be sixty three to three is ridiculous. And

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, football fans, it's interesting

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Speaker 1: how they pick and choose. No one's arguing the Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: Steelers shouldn't be in the NFL playoffs. If they started today,

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Speaker 1: they'd get to host a home game. There's seven and six.

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Speaker 1: They beat five teams with losing records. In the NFL,

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Speaker 1: nobody cares because those are the rules. But in college football,

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Speaker 1: as soon as somebody gets something in a current rule

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Speaker 1: system that they don't like, we have to change everything.

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Speaker 1: We have to light this whole thing on fire. Like

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Speaker 1: there's also the other side of the coin. This is

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Speaker 1: my last piece of it. In terms of Oregon, you

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Speaker 1: should be happy. Your fan base should be happy you

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Speaker 1: earn the number five spot a home playoff game. You

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Speaker 1: should have the easiest road possible potentially. That's James Madison. Congratulations.

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Speaker 1: Where's all this animosity coming from from a program that's

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Speaker 1: never won a national title? Just win yourself a bowl game,

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Speaker 1: move along in the bracket and be happy. And I

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Speaker 1: agree with you, stuck, anything can happen.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be on James.

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Speaker 1: Madison plus the points. I think they can hang around

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Speaker 1: for let's call it three or four quarters, and then

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Speaker 1: it's just a question of how much does Oregon really

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Speaker 1: want to step on their throat as opposed to, you know,

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Speaker 1: throttle things down in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 2: So that's my rants.

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Speaker 1: I appreciated those safety issue be Damns you got the

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Speaker 1: G five guys here.

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Speaker 2: I will say, yeah, I mean you can adjust for

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Speaker 2: opponent that Jame you have like a top twenty de

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Speaker 2: five and sug you can adjust for opponent with that stuff.

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Speaker 2: I worry about their offensive line. That's my main concern

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Speaker 2: in that game. It's just the size and how they're

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Speaker 2: going to move the ball. But I do think the

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Speaker 2: Jamie defense is led legit. And by the way, like

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Speaker 2: we're gonna let Duke in JMU would have been favored

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Speaker 2: over Duke on a neutral field. Tulane beat Duke already

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Speaker 2: this year anyway, Duck, anything you want to rant about

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Speaker 2: or talk about before you dive into the games.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the only thing regarding the playoff is

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Speaker 4: there would have would have been nice to have a

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Speaker 4: little more transparency in the five weeks leading up to

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Speaker 4: selection Sunday with the teams that and where they kind

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Speaker 4: of rated. I thought it was kind of an easy

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Speaker 4: cop out wants BYU lost to say, well, now that

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Speaker 4: Notre Dame and Miami were stacked side by side, we

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Speaker 4: factored in the head to head even though Notre Dame

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Speaker 4: was rated ahead of Miami for several weeks that preceded

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Speaker 4: the selection show, and then only at hour zero did

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Speaker 4: they decide to make the switch and put Miami in

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Speaker 4: and leave Notre Dame out. I felt pretty bad for

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Speaker 4: the Notre Dame constituents there. I thought, whatever the end

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Speaker 4: results can be is what it's going to be, but

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Speaker 4: provide some transparency in some context, well before the last

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Speaker 4: show of the season, when you have Notre Dame almost

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Speaker 4: firmly in the field for four or five weeks and

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Speaker 4: they did nothing to invalidate that position, and then now

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Speaker 4: they're left out on that selection Sunday, I thought was

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Speaker 4: I didn't like the lack of transparency there.

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Speaker 2: But it's all going to lead to his expansion. If

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Speaker 2: people think more teams is going to lead to less arguments,

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Speaker 2: it's to fewer arguments. It's the opposite. More teams is

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Speaker 2: more arguments. Colin, you got anything you want to add here?

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, let's get into this first off. I don't

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Speaker 3: think the G five teams have a shot, but I'm

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Speaker 3: already looking forward to next year. If Jed Fish gets

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Speaker 3: this job at Michigan with Bryce Underwood, how quickly does

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Speaker 3: stuff you run to the window to get a national

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Speaker 3: championship future. Let me just say This is one constant

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Speaker 3: in college football that will never end. Side bitches. So

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Speaker 3: can I just talk to all you coaches out there?

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Speaker 3: Quit sleeping with the staff and if you are, don't

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Speaker 3: give them pay raises. Okay, take it from an Arkansas

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Speaker 3: alum grad donator to the program. Quit sleeping with your stabbers.

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Speaker 3: This is what happens. Sleep with anybody else. Don't sleep

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Speaker 3: with people are being paid by a public university. Can't

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Speaker 3: do that. But is this a good thing for Michigan?

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Speaker 3: I hate to say that out loud. It's this terrible

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Speaker 3: for three people involved. But they wanted Charon more gone anyways,

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Speaker 3: And now I think have they been sitting on this

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Speaker 3: waiting for the Michigan for the Ohio State loss? Have

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Speaker 3: they been sitting on this information ready to go? And

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Speaker 3: maybe maybe there's more that we don't even know what

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Speaker 3: tip Sharon off to get to this point, but Michigan

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Speaker 3: was quick to react to get done with him. It's

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Speaker 3: Kaitlin de boor it's Jedfish. They're gonna throw bow loads

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Speaker 3: of money at him. It's Jedfish to Michigan and Bryce

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Speaker 3: Underwood as a quarterback is a coup u?

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Speaker 2: Is it debor if Aallabama goes down to Oklahoma. TI

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Speaker 2: that Gas is not happy.

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Speaker 3: Well, I don't know what if that is better than

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Speaker 3: Florida pulling off Buster Faulkner. I'm telling you there's some

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Speaker 3: things have I'm ready to hit the board for twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty six. There's already big things happening.

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Speaker 2: All right. Well, the way we'll have our we will

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Speaker 2: put and all of these bowl previews, we will put

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Speaker 2: together our DraftKings parlay, which is our favorite bet from

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Speaker 2: the bowls that we cover fifteen to one shot. At

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Speaker 2: the end of the show, we each will throw in

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Speaker 2: one piece. And if you haven't checked out at Playbook

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Speaker 2: on Twitter, make sure you check that out. New automated

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Speaker 2: bot from Action makes your betting life so much easier.

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Speaker 2: Automate your bet slips if you like a bet, just

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Speaker 2: at playbook if you're going to create a bet really

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Speaker 2: easy for parlays, player props makes everything so much easier.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get into it. Before we get to

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Speaker 2: the main courses, we do have the Cricket Celebration Bowl,

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Speaker 2: which we'll kick things off Saturday noon Eastern or ABC

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Speaker 2: in Atlanta between South Carolina State and Prairie View Prairie View,

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Speaker 2: I think is a small dog here, duck, we need

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Speaker 2: your thoughts.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Fun game that pits the swack champ against the meat Champ.

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Speaker 4: The turnaround for Prairie View A and M this year

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Speaker 4: specific defensively is absolutely stunning. Tremaine Jackson, their head coach,

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Speaker 4: and DC Brian Anderson, have done an unbelievable job with

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Speaker 4: turning around a complete FCS bottom theater program and getting

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Speaker 4: this defense to where they're currently at, allowing just two

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Speaker 4: hundred and sixty seven yards per game and sixteen points

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Speaker 4: per game given up this year. The Panthers are allowing

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Speaker 4: just one hundred and twenty eight passing yards and they

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Speaker 4: have just eight passing touchdowns against them, surrendering just twenty

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Speaker 4: eight percent of third down conversions and only half of

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Speaker 4: the trips into the red zone have resulted in touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: They're a real buttoned up unit. South Carolina State is

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Speaker 4: not a strong running team, just three point six yards

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Speaker 4: per carry on the ground this season. No ball carriers

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Speaker 4: have over five hundred yards cumulatively this year for South

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Speaker 4: Carolina State. Their quarterback William Adkins is special, but I

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Speaker 4: definitely think that Prairie Views defense is able to neutralize

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Speaker 4: their passing game and limit what the Bulldogs want to

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Speaker 4: do offensively. Prairie View should be able to run the

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Speaker 4: ball here. They're going to deploy a real heavy ground

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Speaker 4: attack here. Almost two to one run pass ratio. Nothing

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Speaker 4: allowing in the pass game for prairie View. But these

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Speaker 4: guys don't make mistakes, and Peters has been pretty accurate

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Speaker 4: in throwing the ball here. Prairieview is going to win.

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Speaker 2: This game, and you lean under as well.

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Speaker 4: I would lean under. Yeah, pace a play will be slow,

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a fast track in the in

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Speaker 4: the with the setting in the environment. But prairie View

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Speaker 4: is going to operate at a slow pace. They're going

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Speaker 4: to run the ball. Their defense will control things here.

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Speaker 4: I don't think either one of these teams gets much

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Speaker 4: more past twenty. I would assume that the winning score

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Speaker 4: is twenty four or twenty seven. So yeah, i'd lean under.

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Speaker 4: Fifty one and a half, fifty two and a half,

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Speaker 4: i'd lean under.

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Speaker 2: Colin, do you got anything out here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I love Prairieview A and M. If you look

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Speaker 3: at their quarterback, he's everything. Cameron Peters. Last game is

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Speaker 3: last game one hundred yards while throw one hundreds on

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Speaker 3: the ground while throwing for two ninety four. If you

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Speaker 3: want props, Josiah Rockwell as your guy. He is going

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Speaker 3: to be large in this bowl game. He averages three

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Speaker 3: yards per route run. That is amazing. But all I

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Speaker 3: cowood Duck said, Prairie View ended the season third and

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Speaker 3: total defense in FCS. That is going to be a

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Speaker 3: big factor here against South Carolina State.

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Speaker 2: All right, before we get to the main course, I'll

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Speaker 2: throw it to myself for a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: hundred back in bonus bets. If your bet wins, the

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Speaker 2: crown is yours. All right, let's get to the Bucked

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Speaker 2: Up La Bowl between Boise State and Washington. This is

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Speaker 2: the last LA Bowl that I see that, right, I think.

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Speaker 3: No more grump dancing or singing or anything.

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Speaker 2: Right, we got there's no more Bahamas Bowl. Now We're

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Speaker 2: not going to have the LA Bowl bucked up, don't

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Speaker 2: It's like supplements the like deer yeah, pre.

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Speaker 4: Workout, weightlifting supplements, all that stuff.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was like the Ray Lewis deer antler

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Speaker 1: spray that helped him in what t Sizzle get back

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Speaker 1: from injury back in the day.

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Speaker 2: There is they that's like kind of there that. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so they do have that. Okay, good This game Saturday,

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Speaker 2: eight eastern on ABC, and so far Inglewood, California, Oise State, Washington.

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Speaker 2: Washington's taking some money. You're nine and a half ten

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Speaker 2: point favorites. I know there's a lot of uncertainty with

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Speaker 2: who's gonna play in this game now. Jed Fish, the

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Speaker 2: Washington coach, said he expects everyone that doesn't have a

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Speaker 2: long term injury to play. So you had Jonah Coleman,

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Speaker 2: who their running back's been doing with an injury, Denzel Boston,

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Speaker 2: Taco Davis, their star corner, he's been out. He said,

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Speaker 2: he's kind of iffy on if Davis will play. You

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Speaker 2: also had Steen their safety missed last week. Isaiah Award

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Speaker 2: last played in weekay. Their center has a cast Landon hatchet.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't played since Week eleven. Jacob Madn who one

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Speaker 2: of their linebackers. He only played four games this year

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Speaker 2: because they were preserving his red shirt. I would expect

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Speaker 2: him to play because this doesn't count to your red shirt.

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Speaker 2: Boise State, they'd got Maddox Madson back for the Mountain

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Speaker 2: West championship. Kge Casey their star tackle. I think he

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Speaker 2: might opt out. He declared for the NFL Draft. Anyone

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Speaker 2: else said, I don't know tdy Benfield their safety. He's

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Speaker 2: a possibility. But this is it's a tough game. The

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Speaker 2: handicap for me because my first thought is Washington wins easily,

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Speaker 2: rather easily, like two touchdowns ish, But washingtdon't travel well

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Speaker 2: all year, and they're hard to rate because you know,

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Speaker 2: when they stepped up in class, you could obviously tell

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Speaker 2: that they weren't They weren't at that same level of

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Speaker 2: your Ohio State, your Oregons. They did take care of

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Speaker 2: some teams rather handily that are in Boise State's kind

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Speaker 2: of price level, but they had so many injuries all

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Speaker 2: year long. The offensive line defense Coleman Boston that it's

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Speaker 2: hard to get a number one who's definitely going to play,

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Speaker 2: how healthy they are, and then what this team's actual

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Speaker 2: level is. And then you had Boise State out to

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Speaker 2: play a couple games without Mattix Matt's and a couple

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Speaker 2: of them were super ugly. But it's hard for me

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Speaker 2: to see Boise State if Washington's full strengthen locked in,

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Speaker 2: and based on some officious comments, it does seem that

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Speaker 2: is the case. It's hard for me to see Boise

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Speaker 2: State getting too many stops and Washington under Ryan Walters's

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Speaker 2: did a tremendous job, Like their running is really good

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Speaker 2: this year. They're using more Cover three and that's what

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Speaker 2: you want to do against Matts, and you want to

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Speaker 2: play more zone, not mad force them into some mistakes.

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Speaker 2: So I need to see some more about you know,

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Speaker 2: it gets some more clarity on who's playing. For sure,

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Speaker 2: I would lean Washington, even though I don't show a

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Speaker 2: huge numbers edge. By the way, a quick plug, make

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Speaker 2: sure you check out my Bowl tracker, update it hourly

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Speaker 2: for every single goal, opt outs, coaching changes, transfer portal news,

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Speaker 2: I mean, just right now, I just updated for as All.

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Speaker 2: The star receiver for Tennessee just declared for the NFL draft.

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Speaker 2: Yukon's running back just hit the portal. It'll be news

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Speaker 2: throughout and that's the key to bowl season. So I Leen, Washington, Duck,

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Speaker 2: you're on the same page, are you look at Washington? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: And I was encouraged by what Fish said about how

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Speaker 4: these they're kind of rallying the troops and getting all

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Speaker 4: their guys ready to show up and play a football

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Speaker 4: game on Saturday, and it sounds like most of their

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Speaker 4: guys are going to go. Coleman and Boston would be

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Speaker 4: huge for the offensive platoon, and I think they do

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Speaker 4: have some advantages. Eighth nationally in offensive success rate, sixteenth

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Speaker 4: and securing explosive plays on offense. Washington should gash Boise

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Speaker 4: State routinely. You look at the Boise defense one twentieth

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Speaker 4: and allowing explosive rushes, one sixteenth in overall yards per

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Speaker 4: rush given up this season, one hundred and seventh in

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Speaker 4: red zone efficiency. The Huskies should showcase well here. If

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Speaker 4: they're fully equipped, it sounds like they will be pretty

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Speaker 4: close to that. I think that this will be a

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Speaker 4: real strong showing boys. He also in recent priors has

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Speaker 4: been a pretty poor Bowl performer. They haven't covered a

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Speaker 4: bowl game since twenty eighteen. And I wonder if Maddox,

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Speaker 4: you know, he was able to really grind through the

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Speaker 4: Mountain West Conference championship. That was clearly a game that

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Speaker 4: meant a lot to Boise State. But if the injury

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Speaker 4: is lingering, is he a full go here for sixty

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Speaker 4: minutes for Boise or do they end up going back

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Speaker 4: to the backup cut for anyway, if the game gets

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Speaker 4: out of hand, I really wonder how that game flow

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Speaker 4: will transpire. But either way, I look at Washington should

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Speaker 4: be a strong offensive performance from them. You look at

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Speaker 4: their point total, would not be out of the realm

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Speaker 4: of possibility for them to be in the high thirties.

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Speaker 4: Can Boise State keep up here against the Washington defense?

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Speaker 3: Ye?

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Speaker 4: I don't know if I believe that they can, so

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Speaker 4: I'd be inclined to lay it here with Washington.

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Speaker 2: Colin you also agree, and Mett Coleman had a rough

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Speaker 2: year mainly because of some injuries. You know, at his best,

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Speaker 2: he's one of the better backs in the country. But

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Speaker 2: mohammed like numbers wise, if you look and adjust for opponent.

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Speaker 2: He actually was stronger this year, and that's one of

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Speaker 2: the reasons you like Washington.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Mohammed more miss tackles than Jonah Coleman

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Speaker 3: this year with less snaps. So I mean they have

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Speaker 3: another elusive running back to do that zone read with

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Speaker 3: with with Demon Williams. So you know, I mean Duck

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Speaker 3: kind of touched on this. Boise's bad combination of bottom

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Speaker 3: five FBS ranks and rush explosives allowed and bottom grading

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Speaker 3: and PFF tackling and broken tackles allowed just tells me

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Speaker 3: whoever is running the ball for Washington is just going

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Speaker 3: to have a field day. You know, Washington has a

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Speaker 3: high sixty four percent success rate running zone read both

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Speaker 3: inside and out, highly explosive, highly methodical, whichever way you

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Speaker 3: can cut it. In this Boise defense is barely over

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Speaker 3: forty percent in defending that. And you mentioned what Washington

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Speaker 3: is on the road, but we have to clarify on

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Speaker 3: two West coast trips they were actually pretty good fifty

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Speaker 3: nine to twenty four over Washington State. Yeah, UCLA forty

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Speaker 3: eight to fourteen. It's that time zone hop where Washington

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Speaker 3: had some issues. We don't have that here. I hit

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Speaker 3: Washington at eight on open, I make it ten and

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Speaker 3: a half. I'd still played at ten and a half.

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Speaker 3: I just I have no feeling of what number I

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Speaker 3: would have Boise, when you're almost dead last and tackling

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Speaker 3: an FBS.

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Speaker 2: And Breeze, you're waiting on more certainty round players, and

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Speaker 2: then maybe even with Fish too.

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Speaker 1: I mean Fish that the key person here to me

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Speaker 1: is Doug Hendrickson, his agent, because when the rumors were

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Speaker 1: swirling about him being linked to the UCLA job, Hendrickson

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Speaker 1: immediately came out and squashed it said, we're not meeting

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Speaker 1: with UCLA. He's not leaving. He hasn't said that about Michigan.

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Speaker 1: And I think the timing couldn't be worse from a

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Speaker 1: pre bet perspective, because if Fish leaves, then if I'm Coleman,

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Speaker 1: if I'm Boston, like do I just pull the plug

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Speaker 1: and focus on my NFL future. I'm just going to

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Speaker 1: wait for the first drive. I just want to see

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Speaker 1: who Actually I'm not even gonna do the whole warm ups,

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Speaker 1: who's in pads. I want to see who's out there

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Speaker 1: starting the game, if their heart's in it, and if so,

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Speaker 1: I may have to end up giving out, you know,

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Speaker 1: three or four points worth of value to be able

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Speaker 1: to get that look. But I'm going to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and do it because I do think that Washington's the

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Speaker 1: right side here. If they're dealing with a full deck,

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Speaker 1: I think it's just a bad matchup schematically for the

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Speaker 1: Boise in this one.

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Speaker 2: All right, By the way, I'm gonna track everything here, Colin.

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Speaker 2: Anything we both agree on, for sure, I'm gonna put

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Speaker 2: on our agree board. But for this for the Bowl previews,

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Speaker 2: anytime that there's multiple people who like one side and

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Speaker 2: there's no disagreement, we're gonna track it. So we got

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Speaker 2: Washington on the board first. That's not going to be

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Speaker 2: the case here for the next Bowl, which is the

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Speaker 2: Salute to Veterans Bowl between Troy and Jacksonville State Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: nine pm Eastern in Montgomery, Alabama, Troy has been sitting

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Speaker 2: around a three point favor got out the three and

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Speaker 2: a half. Jacksonville State took some money. We got a

431
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 2: disagreement here. G five guy, it's a G five game

432
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 2: versus one of us. Colin versus Breeze. Colin, you like Troy,

433
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: Breeze likes Jacksonville State. Conna let you make your case first,

434
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: I'll break the tie.

435
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 3: Well. I mean, Jacksonville State has the softest strength of

436
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 3: schedule in the nation, so you can look at their

437
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 3: stats and say they're a great running team. And sure

438
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 3: there's a lot of highlights that they've got in there

439
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 3: with Cam Cook and Kreele, but I just you know,

440
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 3: this Trojan's defense has been the staple of that team

441
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 3: and the reason why they were able to come back

442
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 3: and actually win their division. I think they're going to

443
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 3: have a lot of success stopping Caden Krele and Cam

444
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 3: Cook with the zone read and the counter that they

445
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 3: like to run. The Trojans are above average success rate

446
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 3: against both of those run concepts with a much tougher

447
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 3: strength of schedule, So I would think that the defense

448
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 3: shows up here against a game Cock team that really

449
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 3: has not faced anybody. Troy's gonna have some advantages with

450
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 3: some pass explosives. I know there's some question on the

451
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 3: quarterback Goose Crowder got hurt in that championship game. Tucker

452
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 3: Killcrease could come in. Neither of those guys are I

453
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 3: mean one ahead of the other. I mean they both

454
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 3: split starting duties this year. But the big thing is

455
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 3: is that Troy is actually top twenty in the nation

456
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 3: and pass EPA, so they're not methodical, they don't get

457
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 3: first downs, they have an ugly offense, but they do

458
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 3: hit pass explosives and Jacksonville State is seventy ninth and

459
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: giving up pass EPA. So also you look at what

460
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 3: Jacksonville State runs on the defensive end for coverage, they

461
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 3: run Cover three as a whole. Crowder and Kilcrease have

462
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: a mid FBS forty seven percent against that, So it's

463
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 3: not like whoever starts a quarterback is going to be

464
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: at a disadvantage. And then finally, one thing you cannot

465
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,880
Speaker 3: forget about what special teams are in these bowl games

466
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 3: because they make up such a huge part that a

467
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 3: would in a regular season game. And Jacksonville State it's

468
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty fifth de Troy's fifty six then

469
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 3: sp plus special team, So a lot of advantages that

470
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 3: I see defensively in special teams for Troy.

471
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: Breeze want to make your case for the game Cocks, So.

472
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 1: I'll go from a quote from Moneyball. If he's such

473
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: a good hitter, why isn't he hit good? If Troy

474
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 1: has such a good run defense, Why did they get

475
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: gouged by James Madison. Old Dominion ran for three point

476
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 1: fifty one on the grounds, Texas State three hundred and

477
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: twenty six on the ground. Cam Cook is a one

478
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: man wrecking machine. The guy is just absolutely electric. He

479
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: breaks tackles, he makes explosive plays happen. I've been doubting

480
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 1: this this team really since the preseason. I'm done doubting

481
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: them because we look at it. The preseason power rankings,

482
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: that TARP, the Advance Metrics, all of it rightfully hated

483
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 1: this team because it looked like it was misshapen parts

484
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: being tried to put together with a new coaching staff.

485
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: And I'll say, hands up, I didn't see it working.

486
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 1: But they make the run to the Conference USA title

487
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: game and stats aside, I think that you just have

488
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: to start looking at it from a perspective of it.

489
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 1: Is Cam Cook good enough to carry them? He was

490
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 1: for much of the season, and I'm just I'm done

491
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: doubting them. And on the other side of it, if

492
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: it is Kilcrease, I'm excited to fade this guy because

493
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: if you take out his breakout performance against Texas State,

494
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 1: who had an awful defense this year, the rest of

495
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: his games fifty five percent completions, four TDEs, four interceptions,

496
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 1: and he's so slow to process in the pocket. It's

497
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: why he had the fourth highest sack rate of any

498
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: qualifying quarterback in the entire country. So they're going to

499
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 1: be able to get after him, get them behind the sticks.

500
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 1: I think this is a game that kind of plays

501
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 1: into Jacksonville State's hands if they can run the ball.

502
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: And I'm sorry, I know that the advanced metrics, certain concepts,

503
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: and certain run plays they do look a little bit

504
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: better for But when you're giving up three hundred yards

505
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: multiple times and you're coming off an extra game against

506
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: James Madison, you didn't have this long window to recover

507
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: and to recoup after getting absolutely shredded on the ground.

508
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: I don't see how all of a sudden they're going

509
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: to become a passable run defense. So I'm going to

510
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: go and take the points here. I loved it at

511
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 1: three and a half. I'll still take it at plus

512
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 1: two and a half. I think Jacksonville State ends up

513
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: winning out.

514
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 2: Right, all right, I'll break the tie. Sorry, I'm going

515
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,959
Speaker 2: against you. I like Jacksonville Stadium running dog. I love

516
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 2: running dogs in Bowl games. And my only concern why

517
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: I haven't met this yet. And by the way, I

518
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 2: will say in bowl season, just a little piece of advice.

519
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 2: If there's like a minus one, if they're a favorite,

520
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 2: that's like minus one or minus one and a half,

521
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 2: try to find a cheap money line. If there's a

522
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 2: plus one and a half dog and got us take

523
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: the money line, take the plus one and a half,

524
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: because more so than the regular season, these games don't

525
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 2: meant no one wants to go to overtime, right unless

526
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: you're fucking presno in San Diego State and I have

527
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 2: the under and they go to three overtimes, but there's

528
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: a lot more likely to go for two at the end.

529
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 2: And you know, if they tie this and games have

530
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 2: a chance to end on one, I don't know. This

531
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 2: is something to throw out there. The only thing I'm

532
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: worried about. So I think that you do you can attract.

533
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 2: You want to attack Troy on the ground, and that's

534
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 2: what Jacksonville State is going to do. And I do

535
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: think Jacksonville State's pass defense is better than their run defense.

536
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: They can get after their opposing quarterbacks and the Troy

537
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: offensive line is so bad they lost their tackles early

538
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: in the year. They can't pass protect, they can't run

539
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 2: the ball. They're starting running back Meadows is in the

540
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 2: transfer portal, but they can't run the ball anyway. This

541
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 2: is the Troy offense. It's either a twenty five. They

542
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 2: have good receivers like for our Automas and company, but

543
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,400
Speaker 2: it's either a twenty yard pass, a negative one yard run,

544
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 2: or a sack. It is just such an inefficient offense.

545
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: I know. My only concern, So I actually like the

546
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 2: matchup for Jacksonville State. That Troy offensive line is just

547
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 2: absolutely abysmal. Is Cam Cook He's probably the most valuable

548
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: running back in elite in the country to his team backup?

549
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: Isn't that good?

550
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 4: He?

551
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 2: I mean, look at his yards after contact. He led

552
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: the country and rushing Ah does he get isn't he good?

553
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 2: He was at TCU, then came to Jacksonville State. Is

554
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 2: he is he gonna transfer up again? Does he hit

555
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: the portal? Does he not play? I don't know.

556
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: That's my only concern because then it's or is this

557
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: a showcase game for him to go to the NFL Draft.

558
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 2: It could be. Yeah, I'm saying that's just my only

559
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 2: concern here. But I'm gonna side with you with jack

560
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 2: State my one concern. So I'll go into a whole

561
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 2: season with some like overarching thess that one of them

562
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 2: is Conference to USA might be, I don't, might be

563
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 2: way worse than I even think, right, So, I mean,

564
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 2: like I know that they're bad, but like how bad? Right?

565
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: Because they played each other for and look, Jacksonville State

566
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 2: and Western I mean and Kennesaal State were in the

567
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: Conference USA Championship. They each could have lost like three

568
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 2: or four times like they I mean, Jacksonville State was

569
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 2: in like they Sam Houston. They went on like a

570
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 2: walk off field all but the fifty two yard field.

571
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 2: So like Conference USA, I it just might be worse

572
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 2: than I even think. So I'm trying not to play

573
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 2: too many Conference USA teams, especially, you know, until I

574
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 2: see one or two play and as a measuring stick,

575
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 2: Jacksonville State as a running dog might be the lone exception.

576
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 2: Let's go to the cure ball between Old Dominion and

577
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: South Florida Wednesday, five pm Eastern in Orlando, Florida. This

578
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 2: line has been all over the place because there's been

579
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 2: a lot of news. It opened above seven, it came down,

580
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 2: started to drift back up and then came down to

581
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 2: sitting at three three and a half. Now South Florida

582
00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 2: has favored lots of news in this game. Fire and Brown. Oh,

583
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 2: Byron Brown. Remember last year that he was a decoy

584
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 2: he cast for us in the He didn't guess what

585
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 2: he's going to play? It was Bryce Archie. But is

586
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: he gonna play? Is he not gonna play? Is he's

587
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 2: gonna play? And then he dressed and then didn't really

588
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: play the classic Hawaii Bowl and Christmas Eve. So Byron

589
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: Brown's this is his fourth year at South Florida. The

590
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 2: first year he didn't make a bowl, the second year

591
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: he started the Bowl. Last year was a decoy. This

592
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: year is going to be a coach, so he opted out.

593
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 2: He's going to be an assistant coach, and they probably

594
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: need him to be an assistant coach. Obviously they would

595
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: prefer from the play. I think he became the twelfth

596
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: quarterback in NCAA history to throw for three thousand and

597
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 2: rush for one thousand as a quarterback in a season.

598
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: But he's not going to play. He might go to

599
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: the NFL, he might transfer to Auburn. The Bowls have

600
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 2: no offensive staff left Goalish went to Auburn, brought his coordinator, quarterback, coach,

601
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 2: offensive line coach, wide receiver, coach. It's like a bunch

602
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 2: of low level assistants running the offense. Old Dominion their

603
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 2: starting quarterback, Colton Joseph he opted out and said he's

604
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 2: not going to play in the Bowl. He hit the

605
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: transfer portal. So you're gonna get Quinn Heinekel. Is that

606
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,239
Speaker 2: his name, Quinn Heinekel, that's right, who did start last year,

607
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 2: ran for over two hundred yards against I think he

608
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: ran in passed or two hundred, but it was against

609
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: Arkansas stated did not have a very good defense. So

610
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 2: a lot of news here, like the coaching, no coaching, quarterback,

611
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: no off it's a coordinator for South Florida. They do

612
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 2: get to play in Florida, Old Dominion, no quarterback. They

613
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: do have a freshman who did start as a true freshman.

614
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 2: What do you make of this game? I played? So

615
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: I played Old Dominion. I played them plus seven and

616
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: a half plus seven. I'd still play with them right now,

617
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 2: South Florida. I expect more, some more opt outs to

618
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: potentially come. There might be some guys, more guys following

619
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: Goalishpyron Brown is so valuable. I don't think we have

620
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 2: really under like just obviously he can hit the deep shots,

621
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: but with his legs on third downs, fourth and ones,

622
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 2: the sneaks the in, fighting for yards, breaking tackles, making plays.

623
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 2: And now you have an offense who's he's calling the

624
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 2: offense for Gaston Moore. I mean Gaston Moore was at tennis.

625
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 2: He's a career backup. He walked on and then followed

626
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: Golish to be a backup. He's going to get the start.

627
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 2: I would have South Florida I think would have more

628
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 2: upside if they went with Lechlan or whatever his name is,

629
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: the true freshman who threw a touchdown pass in a

630
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: game against Boise on a fake punt earlier this season.

631
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's hard to read too much with Heinekel

632
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 2: because it was one start against Arkansas State. But running

633
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: quarterbacks can give South Florida issues. I think old Domini

634
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 2: can run the ball. Running dog here. I'm not sure

635
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 2: I'll locked in South Florida. Is I mean the Brown's

636
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 2: out playing, there's no staff. I think the Monarchs get

637
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 2: it done. Doc here on the same page, same page.

638
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we'll see the doctor's notes and the

639
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 4: opt outs continue to come. The staff is no longer there.

640
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 4: Now your quarterback is opting out. You're also going to

641
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 4: be missing key pieces like your explosive receivers Nimrod and

642
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 4: Christian Neptune.

643
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 3: That are not going to play in this one.

644
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 4: This is one interesting element of handicapping bulls as it's

645
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 4: very important to understand and determine if a team is

646
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 4: motivated or not motivated to be there. Do these players

647
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 4: want to go through an extra fifteen bull practices? Has

648
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 4: the staff moved on to their next gig? Does South

649
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 4: Florida really want to be there? And then on the

650
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 4: Old Dominion side, you look at a guy like Ricky

651
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 4: Ronnie who's been at Old Dominion now for six years,

652
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 4: has never won a Bowl game. So I think this

653
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 4: is really one of these chances for Old Dominion to

654
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,959
Speaker 4: really step up and finally get big for the program. Right,

655
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 4: you get the extra bowl practices, but this program is

656
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 4: one that really does need to get a ball win.

657
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 3: Under Ricky Ronnie.

658
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 4: I like the fact that the running quarterback is going

659
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:39,959
Speaker 4: to be in there and he played a little bit

660
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 4: last season. Yeah, I think if you're trying to handicap

661
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 4: this strength on strength. Of course, South Florida is more

662
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 4: talented if everybody's in there, and they have a little

663
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 4: bit better scheme when they're fully equipped. But what sort

664
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 4: of shell of a team are we going to see

665
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: for South Florida who's not going to be participating at

666
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 4: the end of the day. Does anyone really care to

667
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 4: be there or not? Hard questions to answer, but it's

668
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 4: an important part of the cap and this is one

669
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 4: where I think it really matters. The last thing I'll

670
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 4: say is with the spread now getting down into that

671
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 4: three and a half four range, it's easy and attempting

672
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 4: to want to take the points here, but you're really

673
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 4: trying to assess and pick the winner of these bowl games.

674
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 4: Thirty four times in the last two bowl seasons, has

675
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 4: the underdog against the point spread won the game outright.

676
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 4: It happened fifteen times in twenty twenty four. It happened

677
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 4: nineteen times in twenty twenty three where the dog won

678
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 4: the game outright. So essentially you're trying to pick the

679
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 4: winner with the spread like this. I think old dominion

680
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 4: on the money line there's value. I played it a

681
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 4: couple of days ago. I'm on the Monarchs here.

682
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: Also, I will say I do this is just a

683
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: personal this is just preference. I will bet some like

684
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 2: I'll bet like eight to ten bowls. Early. They'll usually

685
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: move in my direction. A big I'll usually go for.

686
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 2: It might be live, it might be pre game. I'd

687
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 2: usually go for a tiny, maybe a tenth of a middle.

688
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: Just because we mentioned motivation, I follow this as close

689
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 2: as anyone and track everything. There's been times where I'm

690
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: fully convinced that this team cares, this team doesn't. And

691
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 2: it's clear from the first drive that the opposite is.

692
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: True you and it does not change in game.

693
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 3: The motivation thing does not change.

694
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: You can see on the sidelines, you can see the

695
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: effort on the field, so and you have to accept

696
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 2: that in bowls, like even if you could beat a

697
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: close by a touchdown and then you're dead as soon

698
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 2: as the game starts, you have to just move on,

699
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 2: Like these bowls are so much about motivation. And then

700
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of bulls where right before

701
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: kick there's gonna be a list and it's eight guys

702
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 2: no one knew 'or out and you just got to

703
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 2: live with it. And that's stuff Eatan's out over time.

704
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: But you got to move on and just be like,

705
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 2: you're gonna look so dumb, especially we do this on

706
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 2: the podcast. You're gonna look so brilliant on some games

707
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: and so dumb on others. But that's Bowl season. Enjoy it,

708
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: move on to the next. By the way, whether you

709
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 2: want to tail, if you want to follow and tail

710
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 2: us on Old Dominion, we'll have quick slip links available

711
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: for all of our best bets at actionwork dot com

712
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: slash bet now. You can also find a link in

713
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 2: the episode description. Colin, you're going to disagree here. Yeah,

714
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 2: I am just fighting everyone today. You're going out USFS.

715
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: I mean, nothing's changed in my handicapping style in ten years.

716
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 3: I just go into a bubble and when I come

717
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 3: out of people's like, I don't listen to any Gaston.

718
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 2: You come out of your bubble and Goston more.

719
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 3: Look, I think it's time to put down a PSA

720
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 3: to everybody out there betting bowls. What Stucky said is

721
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 3: completely right, and don't chase like if a team gets

722
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 3: down unless it's the Toastery, the famous Toasty Bowl.

723
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 2: Old Dominion because they blew a.

724
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 3: Thirty talk about it. You're gonna bat prettys famous toast.

725
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 3: So a word of warning about motivation. Ever, in twenty eighteen,

726
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 3: everybody thought North Texas going to blow the hell out

727
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 3: of Utah State because of motivation. Uh, fast forward at

728
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 3: the end of the game Utah State one fifty two

729
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 3: to thirteen, they were doing circus antics in the end zone.

730
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 3: Every time they scored, they were doing some sort of

731
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 3: tossing a bomb and everybody blowing up. So just be

732
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 3: careful with motivation and in game live betting, unless you're

733
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 3: going against Old Dominion, which I am. One book flash

734
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 3: to two and a half. I tried to get in,

735
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 3: couldn't get it. I'm gonna end up taking South Florida

736
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 3: minus three. And the reason is because are we sure

737
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 3: gas and Moore is like going to play the whole game?

738
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 3: Fifty year senior, four years at Tennessee has no mobility whatsoever?

739
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 3: Are you sure Heartline doesn't put a word in its Like,

740
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 3: I want to see the guys that are going to

741
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 3: play for me next year, and I want to see

742
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: them now. So I think there's a really big unknown

743
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,839
Speaker 3: on who's going to play for South Florida. But if

744
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: you look at Old Dominion, like their defense absolutely cooks

745
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: against the pass, and they're terrible against the run. And

746
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 3: South Florida is a predominantly you know, fifty seven percent

747
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 3: rush rate. That is Brown, okay, but a lot of

748
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 3: that is their running backs too.

749
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: And what I'm saying they benefit from Brown. You know,

750
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 2: like you take out a running quarterback off an NFL

751
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 2: team and then all of a sudden, like the rush numbers.

752
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think Brown is so valuable, but

753
00:36:59,000 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 2: we'll say it because.

754
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 3: But if South Florida lines up with gas and more

755
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,280
Speaker 3: and decides to go you know, straight power and handoff.

756
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 3: Nikai Davenport's three point eight yards after first contact and

757
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 3: Sam Franklin's four point seven yards after first contact as

758
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 3: major highlight yards that are going on. And those are

759
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 3: players that will be here for this game. I mean,

760
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 3: Franklin just had ten carries against Rice in Week fourteen,

761
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 3: so they're just warming him up for this bowl game.

762
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 3: Old Dominion cannot defend inside zone and that's exactly what

763
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 3: South Florida runs.

764
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 4: Now.

765
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: On the other side, you guys are backing a team

766
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 3: that won't have Colton Joseph. I mean, he accounted for

767
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 3: thirteen to the twenty eight rushing tds for Old Dominion.

768
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 3: What's quinn. Heinekl got fifteen pass attempts, six completions this year.

769
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 2: I mean I'll take over gas the more I mean,

770
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: I think.

771
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna be Gaston Moore the entire time.

772
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 2: I mean the other kid, Lackland Hewitt or whatever his

773
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,879
Speaker 2: name is. He's not a he's not a runner. He's

774
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 2: a good, good, decent arm true freshman. But you might

775
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 2: be right.

776
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 3: Anything else you want to ask, No, I'm on South

777
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 3: Florida Minustory. You probably gonna have to buy the juice.

778
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 3: I always like the Bulls. I think even a water

779
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 3: down version of the Bulls is better than what Old

780
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 3: Dominion has on.

781
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 2: Defense the calvaries. Did you give anything one of that?

782
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 3: Yeah.

783
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 1: I just want to throw a shout out to Heinegel.

784
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: He played down the road for me at Downingtown, Westco Whippets,

785
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: but he hasn't started, you know, in a whole calendar year.

786
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 1: Pretty much in Arkansas State in twenty twenty four was

787
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 1: horrific on the ground. They couldn't stop anybody. So I

788
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: don't really put much stock in that, And I agree

789
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: with Collin's assessment. We could see musical chairs at quarterback.

790
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 1: You could see them be deep in their bag. I mean, essentially,

791
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 1: Byron Brown is going Lance Harbor from Varsity Blues, and

792
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: he's going from quarterback to coach who's going to stop

793
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: him from you know, pulling out all kinds of tricks

794
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: and doing wildcat and all kinds of different elements Like

795
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 1: this is a huge mystery box in terms of play calling.

796
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: I think you can throw out the run pass ratios,

797
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: everything that we know about the coaching staff. So at

798
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 1: the very least, it's an in game play for me.

799
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: I want to see what's going on because there's a

800
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 1: lot of mystery elements of this game.

801
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 2: Running dog for me with the Monarchs with a running quarterback,

802
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: which is what I like, you can get some threes

803
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 2: out there. There's some plat threes out there. All right,

804
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the sixty eight Ventures Bowl between

805
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 2: Louisiana and Delaware Wednesday, eight thirty eastern in Mobile, Alabama. Uh,

806
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: do we have a no fight here? This is like

807
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 2: Delaware tough team to figure out, Like they had some

808
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 2: I like Minakuchi, I like some of their receivers and

809
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 2: their peter I mean I think that they might have wait,

810
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 2: but the opposite was true for Missouri State, like just

811
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: transitioning up, and then I thought that they might have

812
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: worn down. They had some just head scratching blowout losses,

813
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 2: Like they lost fifty two to fourteen to Wake That's fine,

814
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 2: but what happened against Liberty? They lost fifty nine to

815
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 2: thirty to Liberty. They had a miracle win against La Tech.

816
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: They probably should have beat Western Kentucky. They blew. They

817
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 2: won a FIU by twenty two. Is a jekyl and

818
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 2: High team. Uh, they lost that Sam Houston late in

819
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 2: the year. Then they beat UTEP sixty one to thirty one.

820
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 2: Obviously got the benefit from a lot of turnovers. Then

821
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 2: you look at Louisiana, another team that like, yeah, they're

822
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 2: and by the way, this is Delaware like Conference USA,

823
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: Do I really want to play them? But Louisiana. They

824
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: beat ARC State by four the goal line stop. They

825
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 2: beat La Monroe in overtime by three to get Bowl eligible.

826
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: They beat Texas State by three. They beat Marshall in

827
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 2: double overtime fifty four to fifty one. They went four

828
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,919
Speaker 2: and oh in one possession games in conference play. Three

829
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 2: of those teams didn't even make well. Two of those

830
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 2: teams didn't even make a bowl. Lunch Winfield took over

831
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: at quarterback. They want to run the ball, that's what

832
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 2: Louisiana wants to do. Delaware really wants to throw the ball.

833
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 2: They aren't that effective at running it. They're running back.

834
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: Silver's questionable with an injury. I don't see too much

835
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 2: news in this game. Delaware has some injuries. I mentioned

836
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: they're running back. They had a couple guys who hasn't played,

837
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 2: haven't played since week eleven. They're one of their tight ends,

838
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: one of their linebackers, they're one of their guards. Louisiana

839
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 2: was missing their center in the season finale and their

840
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 2: free safety Tyree Skipper, who's a decent player. He got reinstated.

841
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: He was suspended for a brawl earlier this season. Elite

842
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 2: the Sunbelt reinstated him for this Bowl game. Lunch Winfield

843
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 2: did leave the finale with an injury. Walker Howard took over,

844
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 2: but he did come back for a couple of plays

845
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 2: at the end, so I think he should be good here.

846
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 2: This is tough game, Howard. Five star Walker Howard, five

847
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 2: star Walker Howard, this is a tough game for me

848
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: to crack Colin, what are you seeing here?

849
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 3: I like Louisiana not because there's like glaring stats you

850
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 3: can take advantage of against Delaware. Like, like I said,

851
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 3: like Delaware just kind of faded at the end. Minnicouchi

852
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 3: wasn't as efficient and made a lot of mistakes. And

853
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 3: then defensively, Delaware finished one hundred and twentieth in defensive

854
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 3: quality drives and one hundred fourteenth in defensive finishing drives,

855
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 3: which means everybody gets a methodical and everybody gets at

856
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 3: least four and a half to five points every time

857
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 3: they get past the forty yard line. Massive EPA advantages

858
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 3: here for Louisiana, which means there's gonna be a lot

859
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 3: of chunk plays, whether it's on the ground or through

860
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 3: the air. Probably on the ground, because that's what Louisiana is.

861
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 3: All zone read. They like to mix in some twelve

862
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 3: with outside zone two tight end sets that might be

863
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 3: a little bit too much for this Delaware defense to

864
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 3: take care of. And you know, Delaware is more of

865
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 3: a passing team with Nick Minacucci and ULL's defense is

866
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: much better defending the pass. I mean, they're not great

867
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 3: at anything, but they're better at defending the pass than

868
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 3: they are against the run. And when I mentioned like

869
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 3: Delaware kind of petered out at the end. They lost

870
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:33,959
Speaker 3: five of their final eight games. I mean their wins

871
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 3: came against two and ten UTEP and three and nine

872
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee. So I'm either the there's one of two

873
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: things going on or maybe both one. Either this roster

874
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 3: didn't have enough depth for an entire FBS schedule, or

875
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,320
Speaker 3: two the playbook got out on them and the coaching

876
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 3: staff never changed what they were doing. Either way, I

877
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 3: don't think any either of those things are going to

878
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 3: like be rectified before this bowl game. And I'll take

879
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 3: a stronger conference with ull Yeah to.

880
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 2: Play devil advocate they. I mean maybe they did wear

881
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 2: down because they played fast too, which probably didn't do

882
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 2: them any favors after transitioning up. So maybe to make

883
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 2: a case for Delaware, there was a point in the

884
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 2: season where I thought Delaware was the best team who

885
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 2: was early but in the Conference USA, which isn't saying much,

886
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,720
Speaker 2: but there's not much separating a lot of these teams.

887
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:22,760
Speaker 2: Maybe the break helps them. I know that they'll be motivated,

888
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 2: right it's our first year transitioning. Oh I'm not worried

889
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 2: about Delaware showing up. I do places. I love their

890
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 2: one of the their one of their receivers. But you're right,

891
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: Louisiana wants to run the ball. Sampson is their big

892
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 2: play receiver, but Winfield kind of unlocked the running game

893
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,720
Speaker 2: with his legs once he took over at quarterback. Nothing

894
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: is great for Louisiana, but uh, I don't know. I'm

895
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 2: struggling with this one. Speaking of pace, that's one of

896
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 2: the reasons you like the over calabaries.

897
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely on the over everything you brought up in

898
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 1: terms of pace, they just left their defense out to draw.

899
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 1: You saw it against Liberty, Jacksonville State, Utah, yukon huge yardage,

900
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 1: given up a lot of points, very high scoring games.

901
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:01,919
Speaker 1: They ran out of gas. But on the other side,

902
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 1: things like this Louisville. So excuse me, this Louisiana defense.

903
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: From a pass rushing perspective, they're outside at the top

904
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten. Un get and Minikuci like, if

905
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 1: you zero in on his stats in a clean pocket

906
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 1: nineteen passing touchdowns, over seventy percent completions in those clean

907
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 1: pocket scenarios, I think he's going to pick them apart.

908
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 1: I do think, you know, we have to read the

909
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 1: tea leaves a little bit. I think lunch is healthy.

910
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:27,919
Speaker 1: I think, you know, they were just you know, being

911
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: cautious in the game. But the fact that he came

912
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 1: back in in the last game that they played is

913
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 1: a good sign. I see this one just being an

914
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: absolute shootout, and it's two teams that clearly care about

915
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 1: being there. Louisiana was trying to keep you know, Desermo's

916
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: Bowl streak alive in terms of appearances.

917
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: They did it.

918
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 1: They won the last four, They had a scratch and

919
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 1: claw and you know, win some muggly games. They did it,

920
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: and obviously for Udell, huge accomplishment first year at the

921
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: FBS level. You know, when they started the season they

922
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: weren't Bowl eligible per the NC douablea and then they

923
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: squeezed their way in, you know, with some of these

924
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 1: you know, tiebreakers and you know, things that went in

925
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 1: their favor in terms of not enough teams being available.

926
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: So on paper, at least, I think we always have

927
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: these caveats, like it could just be one of the

928
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: teams doesn't care and this play is dead from a

929
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,879
Speaker 1: total perspective, But at least Narratively speaking, they both should

930
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 1: be really interested in playing sixty minutes and if they

931
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 1: play their brand of football, Delaware is going to play

932
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 1: really fast, and I think their defense is going to

933
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: be absolutely guessed in the second half again, and that's

934
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 1: when the Louisville run or the Louisiana run offense should

935
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 1: be able to pop someone.

936
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say I do like the Delaware defense

937
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: a lot better against the run, which is in Louisiana

938
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 2: wants to run it, so maybe that helps Delaware a bit.

939
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 2: I mean Louisiana, they you talk about, wanted to go

940
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,839
Speaker 2: to a bowl. They played, they hosted La Monroe's won

941
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 2: three games. They got out game five, sixteen to three

942
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 2: point thirty. In that game, it was not a good

943
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: look for their defense and they really benefited from some

944
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 2: turnovers down the stretch. So I think Minnicochi with a

945
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 2: clean pocket is going to be able to move the

946
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 2: ball on Louisiana. Duck. Do you want to help us

947
00:45:58,840 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 2: out here? What you got?

948
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean I really wish I would have locked

949
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 4: in at the window yesterday when it was fifty seven

950
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 4: and a half. We're seeing this all the way up

951
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 4: to sixty and a half at some shops, so steam

952
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 4: on the over here. Delaware played this season knowing they

953
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 4: were ineligible for postseason competition, but holding on to hope

954
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 4: that they were going to be able to participate in

955
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 4: a bowl if there were not enough six and six teams.

956
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,959
Speaker 4: They even talked about that down the stretch, really trying

957
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 4: to get to that sixth win. I'm not worried at

958
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 4: all about Delaware showing up with motivation. These guys will

959
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 4: be ready to go. Louisiana should also be ready to

960
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 4: go highly motivated. Desormos lost their last four bowl games.

961
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 4: They haven't won a bowl game since twenty twenty one, so.

962
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 3: Only covered one.

963
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's just been a problem with those guys

964
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 4: showing up here in bowl games in priors. So, like

965
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 4: you talk about a program that needs a bowl win,

966
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 4: that's Louisiana. They've got to get the bull stink off

967
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 4: of them from the last four bowl seasons. Tempo will

968
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 4: favor Delaware here. Louisiana does not see a lot of

969
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 4: up tempo offenses in the Sun Belt here, so I

970
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 4: think with Delaware running some rhythm, getting some tempo will

971
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 4: really serve them well. The really the one team that

972
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,919
Speaker 4: ran tempo against Louisiana was Texas State and that game

973
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 4: saw total of eighty one points. Minnikuchi went long stretches

974
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: this season where he was completely locked on through for

975
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 4: thirty five hundred yards. Louisiana's defense just one hundred and

976
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 4: twenty seventh in overall defensive success rate, one seventeenth in

977
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 4: past success rate, given up one oh sixth then allowing explosives,

978
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 4: and that's where Delaware could feast is by giving this

979
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 4: chunk explosive plays and connecting down the field.

980
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: You know.

981
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 3: The other thing to say.

982
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 4: Though about Louisiana, as while their offense really wasn't great

983
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 4: at anything, they scored thirty points in each of their

984
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 4: last four games. That started to really click here. I

985
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 4: think the Delaware defense, you guys hit on this, the

986
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 4: talent disparity from them just moving up from FCS, some

987
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:46,879
Speaker 4: of the depth kind of took over. I think their

988
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 4: defense just started to wear down. But either way, they're

989
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 4: stepping up in class here. Both of these offenses should

990
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 4: be in the thirties. This should be back and forth.

991
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 4: We should get max effort from both teams here who

992
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 4: really want to and frankly, Louisiana needs to win this

993
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 4: Bowl game. I like over, I like even at current.

994
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 4: Go shop around, find the best number, whatever you want

995
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 4: to say, but fifty eight and a half fifty nine.

996
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 4: Try to be under fifty nine and go high. But

997
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:10,760
Speaker 4: I like the over in this one.

998
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:12,719
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to a new bowl, the

999
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 2: Xbox Bowl between Missouri State and Arkansas State, Thursday, nine

1000
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 2: pm Eastern in Frisco, Texas. Guys, a couple of you

1001
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 2: are going to make a case for Missouri State. I

1002
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 2: told you earlier this show. If you're laying one and

1003
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 2: a half, shop around for a cheap money on. There

1004
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 2: are minus one tens out there. I cannot stress to

1005
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 2: you enough. If you like Missouri State, don't lay one

1006
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 2: and a half. I don't know if you already have.

1007
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 2: I've ben looked at it, so I'm gonna I'll ask

1008
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:46,240
Speaker 2: you Freeze in Colin no team plays more one point

1009
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 2: games than Arkansas State. If I had a guess, this

1010
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 2: comes down to a two point conversion. Late, I mean,

1011
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 2: what do they have five to one point games this year? Four?

1012
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 3: Uh?

1013
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 2: That a bunch all Arkansas State games? Someone look at

1014
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:02,399
Speaker 2: their schedule? How many one point games did by this year?

1015
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 2: Arkansas State games are chaos and they usually come down

1016
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 2: to the last play, the last drive, Rainer has it. I mean,

1017
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 2: you can go back to that FCS game that they

1018
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 2: show lost to open the season last year that they

1019
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 2: had to announce that the call was wrong they should

1020
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 2: have lost. Their games are chaotic and they always somehow

1021
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 2: end up on one. I was looking at it the

1022
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 2: other day. They all their games landed on one, more

1023
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 2: than any team in college football over the past year.

1024
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 3: And but Jones is six and one against the spread

1025
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,840
Speaker 3: and Bulls, so you know that it.

1026
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 2: Has been good. So if I'm telling you, if you

1027
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 2: like Missouri State, I don't have strong feel in this

1028
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 2: game yet play. This is a team the opposite of

1029
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 2: Delaware by the way they both transitioned. The first year

1030
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 2: they ascended to end the season led by I mean,

1031
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,280
Speaker 2: I thought they were going to be way worse, especially

1032
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 2: down the streps, than they actually were. They have a

1033
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 2: very underrated quarterback running the show. Colin. You like Missouri

1034
00:49:58,440 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 2: State and Jacob Clark to get it done.

1035
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,839
Speaker 3: I like Jacob Clark a lot. I like fifth year

1036
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 3: senior quarterbacks and bowls unless their names Gaston Moore, and

1037
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 3: they've never been a starter. But look Clark thirteen and

1038
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 3: three TD to I ratio over his last five games.

1039
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 3: He's run this Missouri State offense to a lot of

1040
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 3: points in a lot of games here, and I just

1041
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 3: their top twenty in Russian pass EPA. Give me a

1042
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 3: lot of chunkyards, give me a lot of explosive plays,

1043
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 3: and have this fifth year quarterback be able to direct

1044
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 3: them down the field. Plus he dominates quarters coverage where

1045
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,760
Speaker 3: you play zone in the back and man over the middle.

1046
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 3: He's absolutely dominating. And that's the one concept that Arkansas

1047
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:35,320
Speaker 3: State uses on defense, not that they're a good defense anyways,

1048
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 3: they're near dead lass and creating a contested catch, wide

1049
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 3: open windows for Jacob Clark to throw into. Here, Missouri

1050
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 3: State should be down the field all day. And I

1051
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 3: also say it has a heavy pass ratio with rainer

1052
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 3: and top forty and passing success rate, and they have

1053
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 3: great pass blocking top fifteen in the nation. A lot

1054
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 3: of that could be their quarterback avoiding getting touched. But

1055
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 3: at the same time, that's all they've got On the

1056
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 3: offensive side of the ball. Missouri State is outside the

1057
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 3: one past the so I could make a case there's

1058
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 3: gonna be a lot of points in this game. But

1059
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 3: at the same time, it's non efficient Arkansas State offense

1060
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 3: that has methodicals. They're not as explosive as Missouri State.

1061
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with old Springfield Missouri just up

1062
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 3: the road here on I forty four from.

1063
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 2: Me, Doc. I know you have a rant on this,

1064
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: but just to show you, I think they so tech

1065
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 2: Arkansas State. They won by one to clinch a bowl.

1066
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 2: The week before they lost by four to Louisiana. They

1067
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 2: had the ball at at the two against Southern Myss.

1068
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 2: They lost by six. They had the ball at the

1069
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 2: ten and threw a pick with five seconds to go.

1070
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 2: They beat South Alabama by one. They beat Texas State

1071
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:41,399
Speaker 2: by one. They lost to Knessas State in a coin

1072
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 2: flip by seven. Iowa State they had the ball late,

1073
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 2: lost by one possession. Their games are chaotic. Dokyo rant

1074
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 2: on the Red Wolves.

1075
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 4: Arkansas State is the luckiest fucking deem in the entire

1076
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 4: country for three years. Absolutely discot Yes, I had it

1077
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 4: under five and a half regular season win total. No

1078
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 4: we didn't get to the window. Yes we should have.

1079
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 4: The way they beat South Alabama, the way that they

1080
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 4: beat app State, the way they beat Texas State, they

1081
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,839
Speaker 4: were plus five hundred live in game. In each one

1082
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:18,520
Speaker 4: of those three scenarios, app State at home, going for

1083
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 4: bowl eligibility. They score a touchdown to go up double digits,

1084
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 4: it gets called back with like ninety seconds to go.

1085
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 4: They kick a field goal to go up six, and

1086
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 4: then ARC State goes down for the win, scores a touchdown.

1087
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 4: App State comes back, misses a chip shot field goal

1088
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 4: which would have created everything we needed here.

1089
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 2: You look at our state, like the last year, the

1090
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 2: luckiest team like a second order win total.

1091
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 4: Second order win total this year I think was three

1092
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 4: point eight.

1093
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:48,879
Speaker 2: I know I'm saying the last two years they've been

1094
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,880
Speaker 2: that's been there mL But I'm just telling you, if

1095
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: you like Missouri State and you have the choice, just

1096
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 2: always shop around. But there's right now there's minus one

1097
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 2: and a half out on Z State. There's also minus

1098
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 2: one ten on the money line. Yeah, you're absolutely ready

1099
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 2: to lose by one.

1100
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,359
Speaker 4: You don't want the minus one and a half either way,

1101
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 4: because one of these teams will score and they'll go

1102
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 4: for two and you would lose regardless of the two

1103
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 4: point conversion result. You don't want to lay minus one

1104
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 4: and a half in bowl games.

1105
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:18,759
Speaker 2: No, no, no Calabresee before I get your thoughts, Duck,

1106
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 2: you also are rolling with Jacob Clark.

1107
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on Jacob Clark. I mean, I'm not going

1108
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 1: to cover all the ground that we already covered, but

1109
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 1: Rayner is going to give us a chance because this

1110
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,399
Speaker 1: guy loves putting the ball in harm's way. And when

1111
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 1: you look at it, over the last two years, he

1112
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: has thirty eight turnover worthy plays, which is just incredible

1113
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:37,399
Speaker 1: that he's been able to stay in the starting role.

1114
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 1: I know he does a lot of good things, you know,

1115
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 1: with his legs, but the Bears are sixties in the

1116
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: coverage pass rush and fifty six and the takeaways. I

1117
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,400
Speaker 1: think that's how this game is going to swing. And

1118
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,839
Speaker 1: Jacob Clark is going to get a showcase game. If

1119
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 1: he throws for like five touchdowns and four hundred yards

1120
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 1: and then has you know, a good combine performance. Maybe

1121
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 1: he sneaks into the back end of the NFL draft

1122
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 1: on the final day, a six round pick. He's got

1123
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 1: the size. I know he can't really move all that

1124
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 1: much in the pocket, but if NFL teams are desperate

1125
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: enough to give a starting job to Philip Rivers, then

1126
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 1: there's no reason that Clark can't play his way into consideration.

1127
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 2: I will say these teams are pretty relatively healthy. There's

1128
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:14,560
Speaker 2: not much opt out risk. Missouri State is a couple

1129
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:16,959
Speaker 2: defenders that haven't played since Week twelve. Along their line,

1130
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,439
Speaker 2: Arkansas State, They're left guard is really good, hasn't played

1131
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 2: since week ten. That's about it. Duck. You mentioned this

1132
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:25,799
Speaker 2: to me right away when the matchups came out. I

1133
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 2: mentioned you. I said Old Dominion take a touchdown, and

1134
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:32,919
Speaker 2: you said Arc State under That was your first thoughts

1135
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:34,839
Speaker 2: when the bowl matchups were announced. You like the under here?

1136
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 2: I do.

1137
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:38,439
Speaker 4: And if you think about Missouri State, they've been much

1138
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 4: more balanced this season in their play calling. If you

1139
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 4: would have seen them play at the FCS level level,

1140
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:46,280
Speaker 4: it was all pass and this year four hundred passing attempts,

1141
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:49,440
Speaker 4: three hundred and eighty rushing attempts. Not good at moving

1142
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 4: the ball down the field methodically, not good at converting

1143
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 4: on third down, not good at sustaining drives, and so

1144
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 4: the question is can they garner the explosive plays and

1145
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 4: enough of them to consistently they move the ball and

1146
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 4: give themselves scoring chances. Arkansas State's also been much more

1147
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 4: balanced offensively this season. They'll run the ball a lot,

1148
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,240
Speaker 4: even though they're not good at it. The Red Wolves

1149
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 4: just one hundred and fourteenth in yards per rush, one

1150
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 4: oh eighth in rush play success rate, one hundred and

1151
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 4: second in explosiveness on the ground. They're going to keep

1152
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 4: running the ball here. And we didn't see Rainer as

1153
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 4: explosive and electrifying this season as in priors. He didn't

1154
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 4: throw for three hundred yards against an FBS team until

1155
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 4: November eighth and finished with just sixteen touchdown passes. A

1156
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,720
Speaker 4: couple other things I like real quick Missouri State getting

1157
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:35,239
Speaker 4: a little bit of time with their defense to rest

1158
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 4: and get a little bit healthier. They went seven or

1159
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 4: eight games this season with their defense after giving up

1160
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 4: seventy three against USC playing really really good defensive football.

1161
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 1: Neither one of these.

1162
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 4: Teams can convert on third down. Both red zone offenses

1163
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:51,520
Speaker 4: are atrocious. Arkansas State forty three out of fifty three

1164
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 4: trips resulted in scores, but only twenty eight touchdowns fifteen

1165
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 4: red zone field goals this season. Both struggle and havoc

1166
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 4: Missouri State dead last allowing havoc against them. Struggle to

1167
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 4: pass protect struggle with prohibiting negative plays. Arkansas State one

1168
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 4: tenth nationally in Havoc allowed. I just expect these defenses

1169
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 4: to step up and make them enough plays to keep

1170
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:15,440
Speaker 4: this one under. I think we'll see red zone field

1171
00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 4: goals here. Close game, could be a one point game,

1172
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 4: could come down to a two point conversion, but I

1173
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:21,800
Speaker 4: think this one stays under fifty six and a half.

1174
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:25,799
Speaker 2: Speaking of unders, let's go to the Myrtle Beach ball

1175
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 2: between Tennessas State and Western Michigan, two conference champions, facing

1176
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 2: off in Conway, South Carolina, Friday, eleven am Eastern. We'll

1177
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:38,839
Speaker 2: see who wants to get up and play some ball

1178
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 2: after breakfast. Duck, you just talked about an under. You

1179
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 2: like the under here, I would agree. My only concern

1180
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:53,400
Speaker 2: from a personal perspective, Western Michigan was so healthy all

1181
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 2: year and they still are extremely healthy. I don't have

1182
00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:00,479
Speaker 2: any injuries Like Buckley here hurt his hand, it didn't

1183
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 2: matter an for like two hundred in the MAC title.

1184
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,720
Speaker 2: My only concern is if Nadame Tucker, who's the defensive

1185
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,360
Speaker 2: player of the year in the MAC, who's NFL ready

1186
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 2: what they had like sixty two pressures, does he opt out?

1187
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 2: Is there any chance that he opts out. I don't know. Uh,

1188
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 2: we saw Adam Trick hit the portal. I mean, I

1189
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 2: think Tucker is gonna get he's gonna get drafted, and

1190
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 2: he's he is unbelievable. I mean, he gets at his

1191
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 2: first move off the line of scrimmage, he's basically unblockable.

1192
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 2: And kennisl state, who's they mess around? They go with Williams,

1193
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 2: some dexter Williams sometimes a quarterback, but they're back to Odam.

1194
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 2: Odam is horrendous under pressure, and you don't you don't

1195
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 2: face much, and you don't face guys like Tucker and

1196
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 2: that Western Michigan defense often in that conference. So and

1197
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball.

1198
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,400
Speaker 2: Western Michigan does a good job of limiting explosives, and

1199
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 2: this Western Michigan offense like it's it's just it's it's army,

1200
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,439
Speaker 2: it's navy. They're a service academy. They're gonna they want

1201
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 2: to go. It's not. I know that Buckley at a

1202
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 2: couple explosive runs, but generally speaking, it's just three to four,

1203
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 2: three to four, three to four. We'll have to do

1204
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:13,520
Speaker 2: QB power on fourth and one and then all of

1205
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: a sudden, there's eight minutes off the clock. So I

1206
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 2: like the under here as well. I don't think there's

1207
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of explosive plays. I think the

1208
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 2: pressure of Western Michigan can get to Kennisaull Caleb offered

1209
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 2: the cornerback for Kennasall. He's potential pro prospect. Even if

1210
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 2: he misses. I think he's gonna play, but it's not

1211
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 2: a huge deal against Western Michigan and their passing attack,

1212
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 2: which isn't great. Tucker would be my only worry. That's

1213
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 2: about it from a personnel perspective. Talk, but you're gonna

1214
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 2: you're on board with me in the under here.

1215
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 4: Anything over forty eight and a half. I like the

1216
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 4: under but Lance Taylor in this program, ascending MAC program.

1217
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 4: A Bowl win would be really big for these guys,

1218
00:58:57,600 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 4: not to discredit the job that the Owls have done

1219
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 4: with Jerry Mack. Huge turnaround for that program after what

1220
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 4: they did last season. And so I think we're going

1221
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 4: to get good on good here. I think we're going

1222
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 4: to get both teams best football.

1223
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 2: But after titles that they won, I'm looking forward to

1224
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 2: this one.

1225
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1226
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 4: And you're so right though about the pass rush and

1227
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 4: you know, Tucker resembles Khalil Mack, a guy who you

1228
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 4: could just look at right away and see that he

1229
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 4: did not belong in the MAC. He belonged in another conference.

1230
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 4: And if he's a go, this pass rush is really

1231
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 4: going to create some problems for Kanessas State. I don't

1232
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,600
Speaker 4: see the Owls running the football very effectively against these guys.

1233
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:37,760
Speaker 4: And we saw Kenesaw State at times struggle to connect

1234
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 4: on the explosive passes throw their way out a third.

1235
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 3: And twelve or so.

1236
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,840
Speaker 4: They just couldn't do it against teams that could get

1237
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 4: pressure in the face of a mariotom. Western Michigan, you

1238
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:50,000
Speaker 4: hit it right on the head. It's a service Academy offense.

1239
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 4: And they're very patient oftentimes with ocs. When you see

1240
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,439
Speaker 4: four yard run, five yard run, four yard run, three

1241
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 4: yard play action pass to the tight end, well, eventually

1242
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 4: they get in patient and they're calling plays that don't

1243
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 4: belong in the script. And now you're in second and

1244
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 4: ten and you can't run your stuff. Well, Western Michigan

1245
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 4: stay is patient, they stay to the script. They're very

1246
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 4: comfortable in them.

1247
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 2: Because they're counting on their defense too. If they have

1248
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:14,760
Speaker 2: to planning on the defense.

1249
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you're so right about the fact that how

1250
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 4: many times have we seen these Western Michigan drives get

1251
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 4: all the way down there? It takes six, seven, eight

1252
01:00:21,240 --> 01:00:23,000
Speaker 4: minutes off the clock, and then it could end a

1253
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 4: field goal, could end in a fourth and one stop.

1254
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 4: They're comfortable trusting the defense. I think that's what we're

1255
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 4: gonna see here. You know, it was interesting it was

1256
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 4: brought up with me. I was talking to somebody about

1257
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:37,560
Speaker 4: being concerned about Western Michigan, a cold Michigan team coming

1258
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 4: to the beach and being distracted by the warm weather climate. Thankfully,

1259
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:43,680
Speaker 4: Myrtle Beach is not gonna be that warm, so I

1260
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 4: don't think we're gonna have a lot of distractions for

1261
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 4: Western Michigan. I think they're going to be fully focused

1262
01:00:48,480 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 4: here on playing football in Myrtle Beach. Should be a

1263
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 4: fun game. I'm one I'm really looking forward to. But

1264
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 4: I don't see a lot of explosives. I don't see

1265
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 4: a tremendous amount of big plays. I think Western Michigan

1266
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 4: will step up in red zone and force field goal attempts.

1267
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 3: I like the under a.

1268
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:08,240
Speaker 2: Good comparison for Tucker, like Trey Hendrickson, who played a

1269
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 2: Florida Atlantic Right to Not Power Conference. Trey Hendrickson's college

1270
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:16,720
Speaker 2: sack percentage was four point three five percent, Tucker's four

1271
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:22,960
Speaker 2: point three seven pressure Ray Hendrickson seventeen percent, Tucker eighteen percent,

1272
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 2: pass rush win percentage Hendrickson thirty percent. This guy, Paul

1273
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,800
Speaker 2: pro Hendrickson thirty percent doesn't mean the Tuckers can be this.

1274
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 2: But Tucker's pass run, pass rush win percentage forty five percent.

1275
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 2: Just I'll be plazed because then when you have some

1276
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 2: of these, like sometimes when there's these star defensive ends

1277
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 2: that sit out or get hurt, there's a trickle down effect,

1278
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 2: right because you the amount of attention that you have

1279
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:52,440
Speaker 2: to pay to them, and these other guys benefit from

1280
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 2: him being on there. So I think he he'll play,

1281
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 2: but it's something worth noting. He he just kills. He'll

1282
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 2: kill drives. He'll kill two or three drives with a

1283
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 2: sack and or like a big run loss. So yeah,

1284
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:08,120
Speaker 2: I like the under with you. I know that you

1285
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:12,120
Speaker 2: lean under as well. Calvary's Colin You like the side.

1286
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 3: Yeah. I like Western Michigan. I mean, for a lot

1287
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 3: of points I've already been discussed here. Western Michigan does

1288
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 3: not allow explosives at all. Top thirty five against rush explosives,

1289
01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 3: top twenty against pass and that is what Kannessas State

1290
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 3: is ultra dependent on. I mean, they're top ten in

1291
01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 3: the nation and pass explosives, and it's just a really

1292
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 3: bad matchup for them for what their offense wants to

1293
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 3: do because they're terrible in the red zone and they're

1294
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 3: terrible in success rate in efficiency. Then you go to

1295
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 3: the other side of the ball on the offense and

1296
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 3: Brock Lowry and running back Jalen Buckley, they have been

1297
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:41,520
Speaker 3: very good at running inside zone. You go into the

1298
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 3: run concept defense of Kannessas State, thirty five percent success

1299
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 3: right against inside zone like national average is like forty

1300
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 3: nine percent. I mean, they're they are bad defending this

1301
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 3: type of run that Lowry and Buckley are going to

1302
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 3: put on them. So could be slow at first, considering

1303
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 3: the time, considering the place, considering the cold weather. But

1304
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 3: permission gets done.

1305
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 2: All right, Let's go on to the Gasparilla Bowl between

1306
01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:11,520
Speaker 2: Memphis and NC State Friday, two thirty pm Eastern in Tampa, Ballarda.

1307
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 2: As of right now, let's see what is this update.

1308
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 2: Let's see ho they pull it up. NC State is

1309
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 2: a let's just come down a little bit. But DraftKings

1310
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 2: five and NC State's a five and a half point favorite.

1311
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 2: Total is sitting at fifty seven and a half fifty eight.

1312
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 2: News here Memphis stud right tackle Travis Burke. He missed

1313
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:44,000
Speaker 2: the finale. They've had a couple of corner injuries, but

1314
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 2: the big one is their head coach, Ryan Silverfield's headed

1315
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 2: to Arkansas yikes. Their defensive back coach Reggie Howard will

1316
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 2: service the interim. They hired Charles Huff, who's just just

1317
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 2: going to change schools every year.

1318
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:58,480
Speaker 3: I guess guy is a poster trap. Why Why isn't

1319
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:00,440
Speaker 3: Charles hoff in the Airbnb Bowl?

1320
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 2: I know you guys are still mad at him for

1321
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:06,120
Speaker 2: Southern missus melt down at the end of the year

1322
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:08,480
Speaker 2: for that future, which is a good bet, just didn't

1323
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:14,040
Speaker 2: get there. NC State meanwhile, like some of their injuries,

1324
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 2: they have left Their left guard last played in week twelve,

1325
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:18,880
Speaker 2: one of their corners last played in week twelve. Their

1326
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:22,920
Speaker 2: linebacker got hurt early in the year. Nothing major, but

1327
01:04:22,920 --> 01:04:26,760
Speaker 2: they have some potential opt outs. They're tight end justin

1328
01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:30,480
Speaker 2: Jolie how I love their running back Hollywood Smothers, their

1329
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 2: defensive tackle Brandon Cleveland. He probably gets drafted. Their cornerback

1330
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:37,920
Speaker 2: Devin Marshall could get drafted one of their offensive linemen peak,

1331
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 2: so there's some personnel to watch there. If everyone played

1332
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 2: in this game. Also, like how healthy is Lewis? I

1333
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 2: think the time off he might be healthy and that'll

1334
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 2: help the Memphis offense. If everyone is healthy here, which

1335
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:53,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to try to find out and we'll keep

1336
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 2: up to date of my file, give me the over

1337
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:59,320
Speaker 2: in this game. This is explosives galore in this game.

1338
01:04:59,360 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 2: These are two defenses that give up explosives for fun

1339
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:06,840
Speaker 2: and two offenses that can hit explosives. And in a

1340
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:08,640
Speaker 2: bowl game, that's what I want if I want to

1341
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 2: bet an over, I want explosives all over the field.

1342
01:05:12,520 --> 01:05:16,960
Speaker 2: And NC State can't get pressure either. Emphasis run defense

1343
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:19,920
Speaker 2: is good. NC State's Smothers will break some runs, but

1344
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:21,959
Speaker 2: their rush offense isn't the good. They want to throw

1345
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:25,000
Speaker 2: it and NC State has all kinds of issues on

1346
01:05:25,040 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 2: defense this game. If everyone plays all the OFFENSI pieces played,

1347
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:32,000
Speaker 2: Lewis is healthier. This is an over to me. I

1348
01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 2: mean this is it has shootout written all over with

1349
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:37,200
Speaker 2: explosives all over the place. So that's what It's almost

1350
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:39,479
Speaker 2: like a confirmation that most of the pieces are playing.

1351
01:05:39,520 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 2: Lewis looks good, Give me the high. Let me see

1352
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:49,120
Speaker 2: you guys breeze too much uncertainty. You're waiting on some

1353
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:52,760
Speaker 2: personnel colin you like NC State here.

1354
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:55,800
Speaker 3: I do you know based on just coaching alone, I

1355
01:05:57,120 --> 01:05:59,320
Speaker 3: mean you have to Dave duran is going to go

1356
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:03,160
Speaker 3: up against this staff that's been completely depleted by Silverfield.

1357
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:05,919
Speaker 2: How would argue you upgrade Memphis for losing Silverfield?

1358
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:08,720
Speaker 3: Well, you don't upgrade off you don't upgrade the offense.

1359
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:13,160
Speaker 3: But look, save my Silverfield feelings for our first pod

1360
01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:17,120
Speaker 3: next July. I mean, and leaving your defensive back coach

1361
01:06:17,160 --> 01:06:19,040
Speaker 3: in charge, Like, what does that do to your offensive

1362
01:06:19,080 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 3: play calling? Because all they've ever been is zone read

1363
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 3: concepts with Lewis and Sutton, So I doubt there's gonna

1364
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:27,200
Speaker 3: be anything different. I'm not even sure either of those

1365
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 3: guys are actually gonna play. Brent and Lewis had what

1366
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 3: fifteen design runs over the last three games. Hobbled, hurt.

1367
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,000
Speaker 3: I mean, Memphis was just terrible offensively down the stretch,

1368
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:41,200
Speaker 3: inconsistent more more, really, the Word lost three straight the

1369
01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 3: Navy ECU two lane. I mean, this isn't a good

1370
01:06:45,360 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 3: showing for Memphis in the direction that they're going.

1371
01:06:47,560 --> 01:06:49,480
Speaker 2: That is that is a valid point, like where is

1372
01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:50,440
Speaker 2: Memphis mentally?

1373
01:06:50,760 --> 01:06:50,920
Speaker 3: Right?

1374
01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:53,760
Speaker 2: Lose your coach, so there's higher risk of opt outs,

1375
01:06:53,760 --> 01:06:56,920
Speaker 2: which I'm also monitoring, but you lose your coach. They

1376
01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 2: were in position after they beat South Florida to go

1377
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:02,760
Speaker 2: with the college walkloff, right, they were in control and

1378
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 2: then they faded down the stretch. Are they excited here

1379
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:09,960
Speaker 2: to go to Tampa without their coach? Are there more

1380
01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 2: opt outs? How healthy is Lewis? There's there's definitely some questions.

1381
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 2: The questions on NC State side are like who ops out?

1382
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 2: But they they kind of send it towards the end

1383
01:07:21,360 --> 01:07:23,880
Speaker 2: of the year. They were playing strong towards the end

1384
01:07:23,880 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 2: of the year, So that is a valid point.

1385
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:28,040
Speaker 3: Anything else you want to d Yeah, the last thing

1386
01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 3: I'll say is NC State's defense was sixty three percent

1387
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:33,200
Speaker 3: success rate against inside zone and top twenty five against

1388
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:35,680
Speaker 3: rush explosives. That will play out here because that's all

1389
01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:38,200
Speaker 3: Memphis is able to do on the ground and wear

1390
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 3: their juices. So you know, even if Lewis and Smith

1391
01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:44,440
Speaker 3: are healthy, it's not really a defense they want to

1392
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 3: run into with what they do. So and by the way,

1393
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:50,160
Speaker 3: no expectations of Memphis in game adjustments. Don't look at

1394
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 3: Memphis being down by fourteen and think that this is

1395
01:07:52,160 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 3: going to go smooth. So I would tread lightly when

1396
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:57,240
Speaker 3: it comes to the live betting on the Tigers here.

1397
01:07:57,880 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 2: I will say, though, just if Memphis Karen and Lewis

1398
01:07:59,960 --> 01:08:02,920
Speaker 2: was healthy. The NC State safeties are so bad they

1399
01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 2: get no pressure there and then there's just gonna be

1400
01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:10,439
Speaker 2: explosives all over the field. That's all I'm saying. Let's

1401
01:08:10,440 --> 01:08:12,360
Speaker 2: move on to a game where we know both teams

1402
01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:17,560
Speaker 2: will show up. Oklahoma Alabama Friday, December nineteenth, eight pm

1403
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:22,639
Speaker 2: in Norman, Alabama at DraftKings one and a half point favorite,

1404
01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 2: total forty and a half so rematch from a game

1405
01:08:26,280 --> 01:08:31,400
Speaker 2: earlier this season. Alabama was a six six and a

1406
01:08:31,439 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 2: half point favorite. Lost outright, but out gaining doubled up

1407
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:40,719
Speaker 2: Oklahoma in yards. There are some injury questions Alabama defensive

1408
01:08:40,720 --> 01:08:43,960
Speaker 2: lineman lt Overton, They're running back Jim Miller, tight end

1409
01:08:44,040 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 2: Josh Quavis, defensive tackle Kelby Collins. Oklahoma their defensive end

1410
01:08:48,840 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 2: of mic in the first round. R Mason Thomas, I

1411
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:55,200
Speaker 2: think he's gonna play. That's pretty big. Their cornerback Gentry Williams,

1412
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:58,360
Speaker 2: and then they've had they've had offensive line injuries all year.

1413
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:00,880
Speaker 2: I think Tom is going to play, which I think

1414
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:04,479
Speaker 2: is big. This is so, this is You could make

1415
01:09:04,520 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 2: the case that Alabama dominated in the first meeting, which

1416
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:11,800
Speaker 2: which is fair. I don't care. This Alabama team's trending

1417
01:09:11,800 --> 01:09:15,200
Speaker 2: in the wrong direction. I don't know if Simpson's fully healthy.

1418
01:09:15,479 --> 01:09:18,160
Speaker 2: They cannot run the ball, whether jam Miller's in there

1419
01:09:18,240 --> 01:09:23,280
Speaker 2: or not. I this is this Oklahoma defense at home

1420
01:09:23,320 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 2: at night. And by the way, with extra time to prepare,

1421
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:30,200
Speaker 2: Materier gets extra time to get healthier, you get venables

1422
01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:32,360
Speaker 2: extra time to come up with a game plan against

1423
01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:37,040
Speaker 2: the one dimensional offense that he's already seen that's trending

1424
01:09:37,040 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 2: in the wrong direction at home at night. That home

1425
01:09:40,280 --> 01:09:42,800
Speaker 2: field here is like four to one, four to two,

1426
01:09:43,560 --> 01:09:46,719
Speaker 2: juiced up to the gills. What did we see last

1427
01:09:46,800 --> 01:09:48,960
Speaker 2: year with these home teams in the first round of

1428
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:54,800
Speaker 2: the playoff Ohio State destruction of Tennessee. I think all

1429
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 2: the home teams all went four and oh right, yea

1430
01:09:57,880 --> 01:10:01,240
Speaker 2: and covered and covered. Yeah, four and zero against the spread.

1431
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:06,240
Speaker 2: So the home field here with that defense, and do

1432
01:10:06,360 --> 01:10:08,920
Speaker 2: not this is the this is the kicker for me.

1433
01:10:10,400 --> 01:10:15,680
Speaker 2: Do not sleep on the special team's advantage. For Oklahoma,

1434
01:10:16,080 --> 01:10:18,559
Speaker 2: Alabama special teams have been a mess. Their kicker is

1435
01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:22,000
Speaker 2: not reliable. You saw the Georgia game they were in.

1436
01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 2: They get a block punt. Oklahoma special teams one of

1437
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:27,800
Speaker 2: the best in the country. Tate Sandel think he's gonna

1438
01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:33,280
Speaker 2: win the Luke Rosa. He was worth like one and

1439
01:10:33,280 --> 01:10:36,360
Speaker 2: a half points to every game. That's how good he

1440
01:10:36,479 --> 01:10:39,479
Speaker 2: was this year. He didn't miss from above fifty. Guy

1441
01:10:39,600 --> 01:10:41,680
Speaker 2: is a weapon in a total in a game with

1442
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:49,639
Speaker 2: a total of forty, that is important. Boomer, Sooner give

1443
01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:53,679
Speaker 2: me Oklahoma. I will say, little teaser, it's three verse one.

1444
01:10:54,960 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 2: One of us likes Alabama. You know that I like Oklahoma.

1445
01:10:58,040 --> 01:11:00,840
Speaker 2: Two others of us like Oklahoma. Colin, are you on

1446
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:01,439
Speaker 2: my side?

1447
01:11:01,600 --> 01:11:04,080
Speaker 3: Didn't you take Alabama and our recap show? I was like,

1448
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:04,840
Speaker 3: we only had two?

1449
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:06,160
Speaker 2: Well, I said, just off the cuff when I was

1450
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:08,920
Speaker 2: filling out the bracket, but after digging into it.

1451
01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:11,560
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm on Sooners just checking because I've been a

1452
01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:14,880
Speaker 3: pro Oklahoma's as the second that brought put it on. Oh,

1453
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:16,400
Speaker 3: on the board, put on the board. I think I

1454
01:11:16,520 --> 01:11:19,320
Speaker 3: made that for me. It's about market entry right now,

1455
01:11:19,560 --> 01:11:22,040
Speaker 3: right like I want a Juice money line. I'd like

1456
01:11:22,120 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 3: better than plus one hundred minus one ten, and i'd

1457
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:28,960
Speaker 3: like maybe plus one twenty on Oklahoma. You've already said this.

1458
01:11:29,240 --> 01:11:30,599
Speaker 3: I didn't have any notes in the script, but you've

1459
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 3: already said it. I don't think we've properly assessed what

1460
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:35,679
Speaker 3: home field advantages in a college football playoff game after

1461
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:39,000
Speaker 3: what happened last year. Yep, And so I think that's

1462
01:11:39,000 --> 01:11:42,200
Speaker 3: a factor here with Boomer Sooner by the way, fingers crossed,

1463
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:43,880
Speaker 3: I'm trying to get my credentials for this and go

1464
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:44,680
Speaker 3: cover it for us.

1465
01:11:45,400 --> 01:11:51,400
Speaker 2: Hopefully that's going to be absolutely electric there By the way,

1466
01:11:51,400 --> 01:11:54,000
Speaker 2: I updated my numbers now make Alabama a favorite, and

1467
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:57,960
Speaker 2: I mean and not make Oklahoma favorite after this past

1468
01:11:57,960 --> 01:12:01,759
Speaker 2: weekend Dandy favorite over both.

1469
01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:04,679
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, here we go. It's not a Vandy pod,

1470
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:06,280
Speaker 3: all right. So I have Oklahoma minus too, but it

1471
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 3: doesn't matter. There's there's a lot of things going on.

1472
01:12:08,360 --> 01:12:10,000
Speaker 3: You mentioned the injuries, but what you're not mentioning is

1473
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:13,960
Speaker 3: like even if Jan Miller is healthy, he's not effective.

1474
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:17,400
Speaker 3: Ty Simpson has never been on this availability report. I

1475
01:12:17,400 --> 01:12:21,600
Speaker 3: think he's hurt. Uh, there is smoke and one of

1476
01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:22,040
Speaker 3: my back.

1477
01:12:22,120 --> 01:12:23,760
Speaker 2: They've always were working on his back and he just

1478
01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:25,759
Speaker 2: wasn't the same quarterback in the last month.

1479
01:12:26,040 --> 01:12:29,719
Speaker 3: His on target rate has dipped week after week after week,

1480
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,439
Speaker 3: and I think that's more injury related than talent related.

1481
01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:35,479
Speaker 3: Ryan Williams has had that hip issue. I don't think

1482
01:12:35,520 --> 01:12:39,559
Speaker 3: it ever went away. I talked to a scout this

1483
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:42,320
Speaker 3: week over text that was telling me about his move

1484
01:12:42,400 --> 01:12:45,719
Speaker 3: to the inside from the outside, doing more slot as

1485
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:47,439
Speaker 3: kind of gotten into his brain. He doesn't want to

1486
01:12:47,439 --> 01:12:51,800
Speaker 3: cross over the middle. There are problems all over this

1487
01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:55,240
Speaker 3: Alabama team right now, and now there's additional noise in

1488
01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:58,160
Speaker 3: case Michigan gives klen to Bor a call. But outside

1489
01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:02,200
Speaker 3: of that, right, ask yourself a question. Alabama average one

1490
01:13:02,240 --> 01:13:05,600
Speaker 3: point three yard net yards per play better than Oklahoma

1491
01:13:05,640 --> 01:13:08,880
Speaker 3: in their own stadium, and they didn't get it done.

1492
01:13:09,439 --> 01:13:14,360
Speaker 3: Eleven offensive possessions. The Tide posted two explosive drives that

1493
01:13:14,600 --> 01:13:17,600
Speaker 3: means ten yards per play, and they had three methodicals,

1494
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,439
Speaker 3: which means they had three drives with ten plays you

1495
01:13:20,520 --> 01:13:23,639
Speaker 3: still didn't get it done against Oklahoma in your own building.

1496
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:26,960
Speaker 3: I can't get over this box score about how much

1497
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:28,360
Speaker 3: they screwed it up. And if you want to look

1498
01:13:28,360 --> 01:13:30,400
Speaker 3: at the one big thing, two hundred and forty three

1499
01:13:30,439 --> 01:13:34,400
Speaker 3: hidden yards, hidden yards is a direct correlation to special teams, punting,

1500
01:13:34,439 --> 01:13:38,599
Speaker 3: field position, all the good stuff. I know, John materially

1501
01:13:38,640 --> 01:13:40,760
Speaker 3: had a single touchdown. He only had like, you know,

1502
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:44,880
Speaker 3: a couple dozen rushing yards. But it fits into Alabama's

1503
01:13:44,960 --> 01:13:48,880
Speaker 3: chronic issues against mobile quarterbacks. And if Materier has any

1504
01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:50,760
Speaker 3: kind of game where he runs for fifty yards and

1505
01:13:50,760 --> 01:13:54,280
Speaker 3: has a TD, that's a better advantage than anything that

1506
01:13:54,320 --> 01:13:58,679
Speaker 3: I see coming out of this Alabama offense, this Oklahoma defense,

1507
01:13:59,160 --> 01:14:01,160
Speaker 3: I cannot under as to tell you guys how much

1508
01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:03,519
Speaker 3: Number one in the nation and defensive rushing success right,

1509
01:14:03,640 --> 01:14:06,960
Speaker 3: number one in defensive lineyards, third and havoc. I mean,

1510
01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:09,439
Speaker 3: these aren't joke numbers and special teams. Let's get down

1511
01:14:09,520 --> 01:14:12,759
Speaker 3: to the rankings special teams SP plus for Oklahoma twenty first,

1512
01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:16,240
Speaker 3: that's Tate sandelf and then one hundred and thirteenth for Alabama.

1513
01:14:16,800 --> 01:14:18,400
Speaker 2: Also, they're gonna get I think they're gonna get ar

1514
01:14:18,439 --> 01:14:19,920
Speaker 2: Mason Thomas Beck was the first round draft, but I

1515
01:14:19,920 --> 01:14:20,960
Speaker 2: didn't play in the first meeting.

1516
01:14:21,960 --> 01:14:28,799
Speaker 3: Oklahoma advances. We'll see them in the next round against Indiana,

1517
01:14:28,880 --> 01:14:31,840
Speaker 3: which should be an absolute street fight.

1518
01:14:31,920 --> 01:14:35,840
Speaker 2: With brass Knuckles Daily being out for the year. That's

1519
01:14:35,880 --> 01:14:37,920
Speaker 2: a shame you got hurt in the celebration. That's big

1520
01:14:37,960 --> 01:14:42,080
Speaker 2: for Indiana because they're already lost by it. Signetty, who

1521
01:14:42,160 --> 01:14:46,479
Speaker 2: just pours over film, finds these guys. He got Daily

1522
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:50,360
Speaker 2: from Kent State. He got CJ. West from Kent State.

1523
01:14:50,840 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 2: This is a team that didn't win any games two

1524
01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:55,320
Speaker 2: years prior to this, and he got drafted playing for

1525
01:14:55,360 --> 01:14:57,599
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I mean, sig finds these guys.

1526
01:14:57,600 --> 01:15:00,760
Speaker 2: But that was unfortunate news for Daily. Stephen da who

1527
01:15:00,800 --> 01:15:05,320
Speaker 2: was incredible against Ohio State, but yeah, that would be

1528
01:15:05,479 --> 01:15:13,280
Speaker 2: a street fight and joining us on Oklahoma Duck welcome.

1529
01:15:13,960 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1530
01:15:14,280 --> 01:15:16,160
Speaker 4: I mean, you just look at Oklahoma and it hasn't

1531
01:15:16,200 --> 01:15:19,559
Speaker 4: been good football since that loss against the Sooners about

1532
01:15:19,560 --> 01:15:22,680
Speaker 4: four and a half weeks ago. You can't run the football.

1533
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:25,400
Speaker 4: Just really a bad place to be on the road

1534
01:15:25,400 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 4: in the CFP. When you can't run the ball, you

1535
01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:31,800
Speaker 4: can't sustain drives on the ground and now you're giving

1536
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:35,040
Speaker 4: venables two weeks to prepare for this passing offense with

1537
01:15:35,240 --> 01:15:40,920
Speaker 4: that defense that is elite in creating pressure, garnering negative plays.

1538
01:15:40,920 --> 01:15:44,000
Speaker 4: One hundred and fifteen tackles for loss, forty two sacks

1539
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:48,080
Speaker 4: registered by Oklahoma this season, the defense second nationally yards

1540
01:15:48,080 --> 01:15:50,680
Speaker 4: per rush, first in rush play success rate. Alabama's not

1541
01:15:50,760 --> 01:15:52,599
Speaker 4: running the ball on these guys, doesn't matter who's been

1542
01:15:52,680 --> 01:15:55,760
Speaker 4: there in the backfield. Third and overall defensive havoc, fifth

1543
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:58,840
Speaker 4: and red zone efficiency. There's just with Alabama, there's just

1544
01:15:58,880 --> 01:16:03,280
Speaker 4: going to be nothing easy running or passing the ball here.

1545
01:16:03,400 --> 01:16:06,040
Speaker 4: And you look at the time off for Oklahoma, which

1546
01:16:06,080 --> 01:16:09,160
Speaker 4: could really help them getting healthier a little bit defensively,

1547
01:16:09,160 --> 01:16:11,719
Speaker 4: getting some O line pieces back. Both the running backs

1548
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:15,960
Speaker 4: Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock should come back Healthytiers should.

1549
01:16:16,240 --> 01:16:17,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if he was ever.

1550
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:20,080
Speaker 4: For Matier, Yeah, And the hand the longest stretch of

1551
01:16:20,080 --> 01:16:22,679
Speaker 4: time for John Mattier since the hand surgery, will he'll

1552
01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:26,200
Speaker 4: have been able to recover and kind of get that fixed.

1553
01:16:26,320 --> 01:16:29,920
Speaker 4: So for all the problems we've seen from Oklahoma, and

1554
01:16:29,960 --> 01:16:31,519
Speaker 4: I think we can all agree that when you watch

1555
01:16:31,560 --> 01:16:34,599
Speaker 4: the product on your television set. It doesn't look great

1556
01:16:34,760 --> 01:16:38,400
Speaker 4: offensively for Oklahoma, but that defense has had zero issue.

1557
01:16:38,400 --> 01:16:41,040
Speaker 4: They've been lights out all season. I think they show

1558
01:16:41,120 --> 01:16:43,519
Speaker 4: up ready to go here. Venables has just add the

1559
01:16:43,600 --> 01:16:47,320
Speaker 4: upper hand against a boar offense versus defense. Good on good.

1560
01:16:47,720 --> 01:16:49,400
Speaker 4: I think we'll see it here at home as well.

1561
01:16:49,560 --> 01:16:53,360
Speaker 4: That that home playoff atmosphere is very real and it's

1562
01:16:53,400 --> 01:16:56,320
Speaker 4: a pick them. Don't delay any points, just win the game. Yeah,

1563
01:16:56,320 --> 01:16:57,879
Speaker 4: that's what I want to be on. Here is Oklahoma

1564
01:16:57,920 --> 01:16:59,720
Speaker 4: on the money and the special teams. Don't sleep on

1565
01:16:59,720 --> 01:17:02,280
Speaker 4: this beat teams. Uh And by the way, do we

1566
01:17:02,600 --> 01:17:06,040
Speaker 4: talk to Deboor on the road? This Alabama team for

1567
01:17:06,160 --> 01:17:09,880
Speaker 4: years has they should have lost that South Carolina luckbox win.

1568
01:17:10,400 --> 01:17:13,360
Speaker 4: They should have lost at Auburn. They get all the

1569
01:17:13,439 --> 01:17:15,720
Speaker 4: fourth down, they get all the turnovers, they get out

1570
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:18,600
Speaker 4: gained by one hundred and forty yards. They lost at

1571
01:17:18,640 --> 01:17:21,200
Speaker 4: Florida State. I mean this team has not been on

1572
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:25,000
Speaker 4: good on the road for years. Walking into a buzzsaw

1573
01:17:25,040 --> 01:17:31,120
Speaker 4: here Calvary's you're going against the crew. You're roll tied

1574
01:17:31,200 --> 01:17:35,800
Speaker 4: and I am I'm roll tightening on this one. So

1575
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:38,760
Speaker 4: Alabama can't move the ball in this Oklahoma defense, right,

1576
01:17:39,240 --> 01:17:41,759
Speaker 4: somehow they moved the ball four hundred yards to total offense.

1577
01:17:41,960 --> 01:17:45,280
Speaker 4: They lose the turnover battle three nothing you I mean

1578
01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:50,160
Speaker 4: you basically coined this phrase stuck luckbox. No one's overcoming

1579
01:17:50,280 --> 01:17:51,160
Speaker 4: a negative.

1580
01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:52,600
Speaker 2: Ste It was a luckbox win for Oklahoma. Yeah, I

1581
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:53,360
Speaker 2: give it. I'll give you that.

1582
01:17:53,479 --> 01:17:56,719
Speaker 1: So just putting that out there, second piece, they absolutely

1583
01:17:56,720 --> 01:17:58,639
Speaker 1: can't run the ball the zero percent chance. I am

1584
01:17:58,680 --> 01:18:00,599
Speaker 1: not saying that they're going to on for one hundred

1585
01:18:00,600 --> 01:18:03,559
Speaker 1: and fifty yards, But the way that the narrative is

1586
01:18:03,560 --> 01:18:05,479
Speaker 1: is that Oklahoma is going to stuff them in a

1587
01:18:05,520 --> 01:18:08,000
Speaker 1: locker and just beat their brains in in the trenches.

1588
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:10,240
Speaker 1: If you take out sack yards they ran for eighty

1589
01:18:10,320 --> 01:18:13,160
Speaker 1: nine yards, gave them enough balance to be able to

1590
01:18:13,200 --> 01:18:16,960
Speaker 1: put them in manageable situations where the defense couldn't.

1591
01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:19,840
Speaker 2: Just put one thirty five yard run by Hill.

1592
01:18:20,600 --> 01:18:22,680
Speaker 1: Now I'm going to back up for a second. I

1593
01:18:22,680 --> 01:18:25,519
Speaker 1: think the injury concerns are very real. I'm not feeling

1594
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:28,760
Speaker 1: super confident that Ty Simpson is one hundred percent. If

1595
01:18:28,760 --> 01:18:31,280
Speaker 1: he's eighty percent, I'll probably take it. Am I going

1596
01:18:31,360 --> 01:18:33,559
Speaker 1: to get Jim Miller. I'm rolling the dice on those

1597
01:18:33,560 --> 01:18:36,280
Speaker 1: two things. I am against you, guys. I'm not saying

1598
01:18:36,320 --> 01:18:39,120
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma is a bad play by any stretch, but

1599
01:18:39,320 --> 01:18:40,760
Speaker 1: I have to make a pick on this game. This

1600
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:43,320
Speaker 1: is a playoff game. When I look at like all

1601
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 1: that we've just discussed in terms of the Alabama offense

1602
01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:49,040
Speaker 1: versus the Oklahoma defense, I've already seen them be able

1603
01:18:49,080 --> 01:18:52,120
Speaker 1: to move the football and be able to double their yards.

1604
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:54,439
Speaker 1: If you look at Parker Flemings, did we get beat

1605
01:18:54,479 --> 01:18:58,000
Speaker 1: that bad graphic? One of the most egregious differentials in

1606
01:18:58,080 --> 01:19:01,320
Speaker 1: terms of Power four teams the season, Yet they lose

1607
01:19:01,360 --> 01:19:03,960
Speaker 1: that game by two. On the other side, all this

1608
01:19:04,080 --> 01:19:06,479
Speaker 1: inkspilled you know in articles talking about how good the

1609
01:19:06,479 --> 01:19:09,760
Speaker 1: Oklahoma defense is. This offense is not good. And if

1610
01:19:09,760 --> 01:19:13,200
Speaker 1: they're put in a situation where Matier does not pull

1611
01:19:13,320 --> 01:19:15,040
Speaker 1: rapid out of his hat and all of a sudden

1612
01:19:15,120 --> 01:19:17,680
Speaker 1: rushes for sixty or seventy yards, I don't have much

1613
01:19:17,680 --> 01:19:19,599
Speaker 1: faith in them at all to score more than twenty

1614
01:19:19,640 --> 01:19:23,160
Speaker 1: points in this game. And yes, Alabama has struggled with

1615
01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:26,000
Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks, but it seems to me that Womack had

1616
01:19:26,040 --> 01:19:29,360
Speaker 1: a game plan that they executed and successfully kept Matier

1617
01:19:29,479 --> 01:19:32,280
Speaker 1: in the pocket for the majority of the game. So

1618
01:19:32,840 --> 01:19:35,800
Speaker 1: in terms of like making jumps and seeing like you know,

1619
01:19:35,960 --> 01:19:38,160
Speaker 1: I'm hopeful that certain things are going to happen. It's

1620
01:19:38,200 --> 01:19:40,680
Speaker 1: really the injury issues in terms of seeing it on

1621
01:19:40,760 --> 01:19:43,679
Speaker 1: film already, They've already done it once. Now the home

1622
01:19:43,680 --> 01:19:46,680
Speaker 1: field advantage is significant. I think I would love to

1623
01:19:46,720 --> 01:19:48,920
Speaker 1: be catching points in this this position. I think that

1624
01:19:48,920 --> 01:19:51,759
Speaker 1: that the line is wrong, but I still think Alabama

1625
01:19:51,800 --> 01:19:53,200
Speaker 1: is going to find a way to win this one.

1626
01:19:53,240 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 1: I wish I was getting good plus money on this,

1627
01:19:55,640 --> 01:19:57,720
Speaker 1: but I'm not. I got to put my foot down

1628
01:19:57,800 --> 01:19:59,439
Speaker 1: between one of these two teams. I'm going to go

1629
01:19:59,439 --> 01:20:02,599
Speaker 1: with Alabama because if I look at Kalen de Boor's

1630
01:20:03,040 --> 01:20:07,519
Speaker 1: performance in the postseason, back to his national championships at

1631
01:20:07,520 --> 01:20:10,160
Speaker 1: the lower level, what he did at Washington, being able

1632
01:20:10,200 --> 01:20:14,639
Speaker 1: to really elevate them and against teams that essentially should

1633
01:20:14,640 --> 01:20:17,040
Speaker 1: have had a big talent advantage. Look at that Texas

1634
01:20:17,040 --> 01:20:19,880
Speaker 1: Sugar Bowl, he was able to scheme things together. He's

1635
01:20:19,920 --> 01:20:21,760
Speaker 1: going to be have to be deep in his bag

1636
01:20:21,800 --> 01:20:25,040
Speaker 1: on this one. The Michigan noise the cloud isn't great.

1637
01:20:25,400 --> 01:20:27,880
Speaker 1: Another thing kind of trending against me here, but I

1638
01:20:27,920 --> 01:20:30,839
Speaker 1: still have faith in him as a play calling genius.

1639
01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:32,560
Speaker 1: That's the reason why I got the Alabama job in

1640
01:20:32,600 --> 01:20:34,800
Speaker 1: the first place. So I think they win a low

1641
01:20:34,840 --> 01:20:37,080
Speaker 1: scoring game. They're on the right side of some luck.

1642
01:20:37,320 --> 01:20:40,479
Speaker 1: Hopefully they don't get a frickin' punt blocked, because that's

1643
01:20:40,479 --> 01:20:42,960
Speaker 1: what actually cost me. I had this huge for the action.

1644
01:20:43,000 --> 01:20:45,439
Speaker 1: I work a huge same game parlay where I had

1645
01:20:45,560 --> 01:20:48,240
Speaker 1: under across the board punts on the opening drives for

1646
01:20:48,280 --> 01:20:50,320
Speaker 1: Georgia and Bama. All I needed was three hundred total

1647
01:20:50,439 --> 01:20:52,800
Speaker 1: yards for the Georgia offense. They finished with two ninety

1648
01:20:52,840 --> 01:20:54,360
Speaker 1: seven after a bunch of nils.

1649
01:20:54,160 --> 01:20:54,720
Speaker 2: At the end of the game.

1650
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:58,240
Speaker 1: It was because they were constantly gifted short fields, including

1651
01:20:58,240 --> 01:21:00,679
Speaker 1: that block punt. So I'm gonna go Bama. I've seen

1652
01:21:00,680 --> 01:21:04,640
Speaker 1: their offense succeed against this, against this Oklahoma defense, and

1653
01:21:04,680 --> 01:21:06,800
Speaker 1: I stole my concerns about Okhoma. I think their half

1654
01:21:06,800 --> 01:21:09,479
Speaker 1: team they have an excellent defense, but they have to

1655
01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:13,600
Speaker 1: show it to me against this particular Albama team.

1656
01:21:14,520 --> 01:21:16,519
Speaker 2: What is bamad elite though, Like, I don't even think

1657
01:21:16,520 --> 01:21:19,400
Speaker 2: Bama's elite anywhere, at least to Okahoma is an elite defense,

1658
01:21:19,439 --> 01:21:21,519
Speaker 2: I don't what is Bamado that is elite?

1659
01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:25,800
Speaker 1: How then, if they're not elite, which I'm not saying

1660
01:21:25,880 --> 01:21:29,040
Speaker 1: that they are. This juggernaut offense, they're like the.

1661
01:21:29,080 --> 01:21:31,000
Speaker 2: Fifteenth best team in the country in my opinion.

1662
01:21:31,360 --> 01:21:33,439
Speaker 1: How did they generate four into yards offense against the

1663
01:21:33,439 --> 01:21:35,800
Speaker 1: Sokoma team. I mean it's saying this to be to

1664
01:21:35,880 --> 01:21:37,719
Speaker 1: be childish. I'm just saying, how.

1665
01:21:37,560 --> 01:21:40,120
Speaker 2: Did Georgia only put up one hundred and twenty yards

1666
01:21:40,120 --> 01:21:41,800
Speaker 2: on Georgia Tech. I mean, it's it's one game. I

1667
01:21:41,800 --> 01:21:43,200
Speaker 2: got to look at the whole body of work. They

1668
01:21:43,200 --> 01:21:44,760
Speaker 2: should have lost at Auburn, they should have lost a

1669
01:21:44,800 --> 01:21:47,960
Speaker 2: South Carolina. They got blown out at Florida State. A

1670
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:51,080
Speaker 2: Florida State team was horrendous, didn't even make a bowl.

1671
01:21:52,680 --> 01:21:55,080
Speaker 2: They could have easily lost at Missouri. I mean this

1672
01:21:55,120 --> 01:21:56,200
Speaker 2: team could have had five loss.

1673
01:21:56,200 --> 01:21:58,719
Speaker 1: I mean in a lot of these cases, these games

1674
01:21:58,720 --> 01:22:02,000
Speaker 1: you're picking pulling. I'm going back to Jim Miller. I'm

1675
01:22:02,080 --> 01:22:04,280
Speaker 1: rolling the dice. So this kid is gonna play because

1676
01:22:04,280 --> 01:22:06,240
Speaker 1: he is a difference maker, not just in the run game,

1677
01:22:06,280 --> 01:22:09,200
Speaker 1: but also in the past game swing passes, being able

1678
01:22:09,200 --> 01:22:11,519
Speaker 1: to turn a three yard play into a twenty five

1679
01:22:11,600 --> 01:22:14,280
Speaker 1: yard game. He is somebody that needs to ball out

1680
01:22:14,320 --> 01:22:16,960
Speaker 1: in this game. For them to hit their maximum, but

1681
01:22:17,000 --> 01:22:19,840
Speaker 1: they still hit north of four hundred yards without him.

1682
01:22:19,680 --> 01:22:20,280
Speaker 2: Having a big game.

1683
01:22:20,320 --> 01:22:22,760
Speaker 1: Statistically, it wasn't him who got to the end zone

1684
01:22:22,760 --> 01:22:25,720
Speaker 1: twice out of that Alabama backfield, so it would be

1685
01:22:25,760 --> 01:22:28,040
Speaker 1: a cherry on top. I think I have to have it,

1686
01:22:28,600 --> 01:22:31,280
Speaker 1: but in terms of them being able to do it,

1687
01:22:31,320 --> 01:22:34,000
Speaker 1: I know it's one sample size. But like everything on

1688
01:22:34,040 --> 01:22:36,200
Speaker 1: the other side of the argument to me is that

1689
01:22:36,280 --> 01:22:39,599
Speaker 1: Oklahoma is going to dominate defense and special teams. They

1690
01:22:39,640 --> 01:22:42,800
Speaker 1: better because if it's anywhere close to a draw on

1691
01:22:42,840 --> 01:22:44,679
Speaker 1: that situation, I think they lose this one.

1692
01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:46,960
Speaker 2: Like I could say the Albama run for negative three

1693
01:22:47,000 --> 01:22:48,920
Speaker 2: yards against Worter, Oklahoma rund you. Doesn't mean they're going

1694
01:22:48,960 --> 01:22:50,920
Speaker 2: to run for negati three yards here. It was one game.

1695
01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:53,320
Speaker 2: It also was at home in tuscal Loosive, where Alabama

1696
01:22:53,320 --> 01:22:56,160
Speaker 2: never loses, and they still lost. This is a different animal.

1697
01:22:56,200 --> 01:22:57,840
Speaker 2: Extra rest, I don't a duck. Do you have anything

1698
01:22:57,880 --> 01:23:02,120
Speaker 2: you want to add anything?

1699
01:23:02,360 --> 01:23:05,400
Speaker 3: Alabama. Alabama does not have Old Miss's offense where they

1700
01:23:05,400 --> 01:23:09,000
Speaker 3: can come in there and push push a US defense around.

1701
01:23:09,280 --> 01:23:11,040
Speaker 3: I mean Old Miss had the weapons. This is not

1702
01:23:11,080 --> 01:23:15,720
Speaker 3: Trinidad Chambless, so it's not gonna happen, doctor, anything you

1703
01:23:15,720 --> 01:23:16,400
Speaker 3: want to add.

1704
01:23:17,720 --> 01:23:19,559
Speaker 4: I mean, I think we've pretty well covered it, but

1705
01:23:19,600 --> 01:23:21,439
Speaker 4: it's it's gonna be fascinating television.

1706
01:23:21,479 --> 01:23:25,800
Speaker 2: On December nineteenth, Jam Miller und under twenty five rushing

1707
01:23:25,840 --> 01:23:31,599
Speaker 2: Yards caligaries. All right, before we get to our DK parlay,

1708
01:23:32,720 --> 01:23:36,400
Speaker 2: this is the This is the comedy, the comic relief

1709
01:23:36,720 --> 01:23:39,400
Speaker 2: part of the year, the entire year, not just the show.

1710
01:23:39,720 --> 01:23:42,040
Speaker 2: This is when Colin tells you to bet Harmy Navy over.

1711
01:23:42,080 --> 01:23:45,719
Speaker 3: It's not comic. This is winning bets. This is cash.

1712
01:23:46,080 --> 01:23:47,559
Speaker 2: Is this only hit once and when it went to

1713
01:23:47,640 --> 01:23:48,800
Speaker 2: like overtime.

1714
01:23:49,160 --> 01:23:53,559
Speaker 3: It's hit once in the last year. That good enough. Look,

1715
01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:55,920
Speaker 3: I'm really disappointed that I opened up the podcast script

1716
01:23:55,920 --> 01:23:58,920
Speaker 3: and somebody in this group said, under, all right, and

1717
01:23:59,040 --> 01:24:02,719
Speaker 3: let's just get into it right over over, over over.

1718
01:24:02,920 --> 01:24:05,320
Speaker 3: And I am not a communist for winning points in

1719
01:24:05,479 --> 01:24:07,880
Speaker 3: Army Navy. All right, it's enough of that. But let

1720
01:24:07,960 --> 01:24:11,120
Speaker 3: me I said this last year. I said this seven

1721
01:24:11,200 --> 01:24:15,280
Speaker 3: years ago, but it was just you and me, and

1722
01:24:15,360 --> 01:24:19,680
Speaker 3: you and you and I had uploaded the iTunes. There

1723
01:24:19,720 --> 01:24:21,599
Speaker 3: is going to come a point where this market gets

1724
01:24:21,600 --> 01:24:24,439
Speaker 3: so low where it's going to regress up the key

1725
01:24:24,560 --> 01:24:26,840
Speaker 3: number in totals is forty one and thirty eight. We

1726
01:24:26,920 --> 01:24:29,000
Speaker 3: passed forty one a long time. It has been years.

1727
01:24:29,320 --> 01:24:31,840
Speaker 3: Right now we're hanging around, there's a thirty seven and

1728
01:24:31,840 --> 01:24:34,040
Speaker 3: a half that popping on the board, like what is

1729
01:24:34,080 --> 01:24:38,360
Speaker 3: this number? These offenses are not the same. And frankly,

1730
01:24:38,600 --> 01:24:41,400
Speaker 3: everybody on this show, we've had conversations about what these

1731
01:24:41,439 --> 01:24:43,840
Speaker 3: new offenses are for Army and Navy. So why is

1732
01:24:43,840 --> 01:24:46,479
Speaker 3: that not applicable to this game? This is not your

1733
01:24:46,520 --> 01:24:50,160
Speaker 3: mama's triple option lineup and bleed clock. That's not what

1734
01:24:50,200 --> 01:24:53,599
Speaker 3: this is. So you know, I mean, look this Army's

1735
01:24:53,600 --> 01:24:56,880
Speaker 3: bottom twenty five and so many defensive metrics, this East

1736
01:24:56,920 --> 01:24:59,200
Speaker 3: Coast three four that they run, all right, they can't

1737
01:24:59,200 --> 01:25:02,080
Speaker 3: defend inside zone, power counter. Navy runs all of those things.

1738
01:25:02,560 --> 01:25:04,880
Speaker 3: Blake Horvath twenty three all purpose tds. He's gonna go

1739
01:25:04,880 --> 01:25:06,680
Speaker 3: crazy just like he did last year. Also, he had

1740
01:25:06,720 --> 01:25:09,880
Speaker 3: thirteen fumbles this year that could give Army supreme field position.

1741
01:25:10,439 --> 01:25:14,760
Speaker 3: That's chances for and over. Navy runs eight different combinations

1742
01:25:14,760 --> 01:25:19,000
Speaker 3: of personnel and run concepts that is not triple option,

1743
01:25:19,320 --> 01:25:22,679
Speaker 3: with twelve and thirteen two running back sets with powers

1744
01:25:22,680 --> 01:25:28,200
Speaker 3: the most explosive, explosive, Yeah, Armies explosive. Have you seen this?

1745
01:25:28,280 --> 01:25:31,879
Speaker 3: Hellms kid, I'm sorry. Both sides are horvath is explosive

1746
01:25:31,880 --> 01:25:35,400
Speaker 3: with Navy. Army's thirty nine percent and defending power and

1747
01:25:35,520 --> 01:25:39,240
Speaker 3: outside zone top one hundred and broken outside the top

1748
01:25:39,240 --> 01:25:42,600
Speaker 3: winner and broken tackles allowed like Army's defense is atrocious

1749
01:25:42,960 --> 01:25:46,000
Speaker 3: and Navy's gonna do what they want. And Navy's thirteenth

1750
01:25:46,040 --> 01:25:48,120
Speaker 3: in red zone TD rate. They don't kick field goals,

1751
01:25:48,479 --> 01:25:51,160
Speaker 3: they get touchdowns. You go to the other side. Kate

1752
01:25:51,400 --> 01:25:54,760
Speaker 3: cale Helms is amazing for Army. He is a one

1753
01:25:54,840 --> 01:25:58,719
Speaker 3: man show. Fifteen of the rushing touchdown fifteen rushing touchdowns

1754
01:25:58,720 --> 01:26:01,439
Speaker 3: twenty five on the season for Army. He does it

1755
01:26:01,479 --> 01:26:04,760
Speaker 3: all for them. Maybe can't defend outside zone, that's what

1756
01:26:04,880 --> 01:26:07,599
Speaker 3: Army runs. They give up an explosive play on seventeen

1757
01:26:07,640 --> 01:26:10,080
Speaker 3: percent of opponent attempts. Army is going to have explosive

1758
01:26:10,080 --> 01:26:13,479
Speaker 3: plays on the ground. I don't know why. I don't

1759
01:26:13,479 --> 01:26:16,000
Speaker 3: know why. This is so hard for everybody. This was

1760
01:26:16,040 --> 01:26:20,120
Speaker 3: the handicap last year. These offenses have changed. Triple option

1761
01:26:20,200 --> 01:26:22,040
Speaker 3: has gone from a thirty percent call down to like

1762
01:26:22,040 --> 01:26:25,560
Speaker 3: an eight percent call for these offenses, they're more explosive,

1763
01:26:25,720 --> 01:26:28,719
Speaker 3: they've integrated other run concepts, and the defenses haven't gotten

1764
01:26:28,760 --> 01:26:32,719
Speaker 3: any better. I don't understand why everybody's not betting this over,

1765
01:26:33,160 --> 01:26:35,800
Speaker 3: but whatever, it's one of one in the last year.

1766
01:26:36,439 --> 01:26:37,760
Speaker 3: I'm glad it finally came through.

1767
01:26:37,840 --> 01:26:39,719
Speaker 2: I mean that was the first time they surpassed forty

1768
01:26:39,720 --> 01:26:42,400
Speaker 2: one points since twenty ten. I will say that their

1769
01:26:42,400 --> 01:26:48,360
Speaker 2: offenses are different, but last year, I mean, look at.

1770
01:26:46,760 --> 01:26:49,040
Speaker 3: In the defenses these eleven.

1771
01:26:48,720 --> 01:26:51,320
Speaker 2: Completions in the game for like one hundred and fifty yards.

1772
01:26:51,600 --> 01:26:54,040
Speaker 3: Well, look at the passing attempts for these two teams.

1773
01:26:54,160 --> 01:26:57,040
Speaker 2: Well, they also ran it. Did something to say they

1774
01:26:57,160 --> 01:26:58,680
Speaker 2: I mean the Army ran it thirty eight times for

1775
01:26:58,720 --> 01:27:01,760
Speaker 2: one hundred yards.

1776
01:27:00,000 --> 01:27:04,280
Speaker 3: And so every play action attempts an explosive so I.

1777
01:27:04,240 --> 01:27:06,240
Speaker 2: Mean they threw it. They've averaged four yards per past

1778
01:27:06,240 --> 01:27:09,160
Speaker 2: with three picks, and that was Bryce and daily. There's

1779
01:27:09,200 --> 01:27:10,280
Speaker 2: just a lot of familiarity.

1780
01:27:10,400 --> 01:27:10,800
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1781
01:27:11,120 --> 01:27:14,080
Speaker 2: The offenses are different. I said every year for and

1782
01:27:14,120 --> 01:27:15,920
Speaker 2: I've said this for ten years, you can't use a

1783
01:27:15,960 --> 01:27:17,920
Speaker 2: model to make these. So I made the total thirty

1784
01:27:17,920 --> 01:27:20,400
Speaker 2: three every year, and then we'd bet the under, and

1785
01:27:21,360 --> 01:27:23,200
Speaker 2: it started to come down to thirty three thirty four.

1786
01:27:24,040 --> 01:27:25,960
Speaker 2: But now with these different offenses, I'm around like thirty

1787
01:27:25,960 --> 01:27:27,720
Speaker 2: seven and a half, So there's nothing for me to

1788
01:27:27,760 --> 01:27:30,920
Speaker 2: do here. I made this close to a touchdown on

1789
01:27:30,960 --> 01:27:33,280
Speaker 2: the spread. But I have too much respect for Army

1790
01:27:33,280 --> 01:27:35,720
Speaker 2: and the familiarity to VET the side always love this.

1791
01:27:35,720 --> 01:27:37,000
Speaker 2: I used to go to this game. My dad would

1792
01:27:36,960 --> 01:27:38,439
Speaker 2: take me when it was a the VET in the nineties.

1793
01:27:39,320 --> 01:27:42,120
Speaker 2: I got my Army Navy helmet back here. Breeze, you're

1794
01:27:42,120 --> 01:27:44,760
Speaker 2: gonna fight. I love the pageantry around it. I hate

1795
01:27:44,800 --> 01:27:45,920
Speaker 2: that there's a Bowl game on the same day. It

1796
01:27:45,960 --> 01:27:50,120
Speaker 2: should be Army Navy game. But it is what it is. Breeze.

1797
01:27:50,200 --> 01:27:53,320
Speaker 2: You're going with the history, not the year history, but

1798
01:27:53,960 --> 01:27:55,840
Speaker 2: the longer history. You're going with the under You're fighting

1799
01:27:55,840 --> 01:27:57,360
Speaker 2: Colin here, I am.

1800
01:27:57,640 --> 01:28:00,160
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want apples to apples, if you

1801
01:28:00,200 --> 01:28:02,719
Speaker 1: want some examples from this year, Army played air Force.

1802
01:28:02,760 --> 01:28:04,679
Speaker 1: I had a lot of respect for Air Force's offense,

1803
01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:07,360
Speaker 1: no respect for their defense. It was twenty to seventeen.

1804
01:28:07,880 --> 01:28:10,960
Speaker 1: Navy played Rice. Rice's defense stunk. It was twenty one

1805
01:28:11,000 --> 01:28:16,200
Speaker 1: to thirteen. So there's ways in which these games can Yeah,

1806
01:28:16,240 --> 01:28:18,960
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just these matchups.

1807
01:28:19,040 --> 01:28:23,320
Speaker 3: It's all went sucks. These offenses don't.

1808
01:28:23,200 --> 01:28:27,800
Speaker 1: Suck Rice's defense, though, I think that Army is going

1809
01:28:27,840 --> 01:28:30,160
Speaker 1: to struggle offensively in this game, and you need two

1810
01:28:30,200 --> 01:28:31,760
Speaker 1: to tank go on a total. You may think that

1811
01:28:31,840 --> 01:28:33,800
Speaker 1: Navy's going to just score forty five points in this game.

1812
01:28:33,840 --> 01:28:36,599
Speaker 1: That would truly be bucking the trend. And I look

1813
01:28:36,600 --> 01:28:38,920
Speaker 1: at Navy their last performance against Memphis. That was the

1814
01:28:38,920 --> 01:28:40,759
Speaker 1: best the defense played the entire season.

1815
01:28:41,120 --> 01:28:41,920
Speaker 2: So I think the.

1816
01:28:41,880 --> 01:28:45,640
Speaker 1: Familiarity, I think that they are ascending defensively. I'm just

1817
01:28:45,680 --> 01:28:47,519
Speaker 1: going to play the under here, and I understand it's

1818
01:28:47,720 --> 01:28:50,160
Speaker 1: one to zero since last year you don't have to

1819
01:28:50,160 --> 01:28:52,000
Speaker 1: go back that far when this total was set at

1820
01:28:52,000 --> 01:28:54,240
Speaker 1: twenty eight and a half, it still went under. This

1821
01:28:54,280 --> 01:28:57,160
Speaker 1: is a pure historic play, but at least I am

1822
01:28:57,760 --> 01:29:00,400
Speaker 1: basking in the recent history of some of the service

1823
01:29:00,400 --> 01:29:03,719
Speaker 1: academies playing the same year and going under this number.

1824
01:29:03,840 --> 01:29:06,200
Speaker 1: And like I said, Air Force had an awesome offense.

1825
01:29:06,400 --> 01:29:08,960
Speaker 1: They were able to pass and run, and somehow Army

1826
01:29:09,000 --> 01:29:10,160
Speaker 1: was able to muck that one up.

1827
01:29:10,200 --> 01:29:11,439
Speaker 3: So I goin to go under.

1828
01:29:11,760 --> 01:29:13,960
Speaker 1: You can dunk on me, and everybody else who you

1829
01:29:13,960 --> 01:29:15,800
Speaker 1: know says that you're wrong in this one and you're

1830
01:29:15,840 --> 01:29:18,080
Speaker 1: off and you got lucky last year. I'm just gonna

1831
01:29:18,120 --> 01:29:21,599
Speaker 1: keep going with this trends because in terms of the energy,

1832
01:29:21,760 --> 01:29:25,160
Speaker 1: the effort, the extra attention that both of these defensive

1833
01:29:25,280 --> 01:29:28,120
Speaker 1: staffs put into this game, there's a reason why it's

1834
01:29:28,160 --> 01:29:30,559
Speaker 1: been pulling teeth to get over these closing numbers in

1835
01:29:30,600 --> 01:29:33,160
Speaker 1: the thirties for years, and I think we're gonna see

1836
01:29:33,200 --> 01:29:33,400
Speaker 1: more of.

1837
01:29:33,360 --> 01:29:36,120
Speaker 2: It on Saturday. My first, my favorite part of that

1838
01:29:36,160 --> 01:29:40,360
Speaker 2: the Army Navy rivalry is the history, the pageantry, seeing

1839
01:29:40,360 --> 01:29:45,680
Speaker 2: all the truths, the all the the song after the celebrations,

1840
01:29:46,120 --> 01:29:49,519
Speaker 2: the respect. My second favorite is trolling Colin on Twitter

1841
01:29:49,560 --> 01:29:52,479
Speaker 2: with zero zero in the second quarter and then him

1842
01:29:52,920 --> 01:29:56,320
Speaker 2: praying for overtime. Doc, you're langy with the Mids.

1843
01:29:57,560 --> 01:29:59,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, Navy dominated a much better Army team

1844
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:01,880
Speaker 4: last season, and you just talk about a team that

1845
01:30:02,000 --> 01:30:06,080
Speaker 4: is so incredibly prepared to face the intimate nuances of

1846
01:30:06,160 --> 01:30:10,599
Speaker 4: this Army option style attack. I actually like what I've

1847
01:30:10,640 --> 01:30:13,479
Speaker 4: seen from Navy when they've played up this season. Defeated

1848
01:30:13,520 --> 01:30:16,599
Speaker 4: South Florida, defeated Memphis to close the season, out played

1849
01:30:16,720 --> 01:30:19,200
Speaker 4: Notre Dame tough for a half. When I look at

1850
01:30:19,280 --> 01:30:23,280
Speaker 4: Navy's rushing offense, they are much much more explosive five

1851
01:30:23,680 --> 01:30:26,000
Speaker 4: and forty two rushing attempts this season for thirty two

1852
01:30:26,040 --> 01:30:28,640
Speaker 4: to eighty two six point one yards per carry on

1853
01:30:28,680 --> 01:30:31,799
Speaker 4: the ground with thirty eight rushing touchdowns. Army is averaging

1854
01:30:31,800 --> 01:30:34,080
Speaker 4: nearly two yards per carry on the ground less than

1855
01:30:34,080 --> 01:30:37,439
Speaker 4: that with only twenty five rushing touchdowns. Navy has the

1856
01:30:37,479 --> 01:30:40,599
Speaker 4: overall better run defense, even factoring in those games against

1857
01:30:40,600 --> 01:30:44,200
Speaker 4: South Florida, Memphis, and Notre Dame, and Army didn't face

1858
01:30:44,280 --> 01:30:48,200
Speaker 4: any rushing attacks nearly as as potent as what those

1859
01:30:48,240 --> 01:30:52,280
Speaker 4: three opponents were to bring. Situationally, Navy is stronger, better

1860
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:55,200
Speaker 4: on third down, much more efficient in the red zone.

1861
01:30:56,160 --> 01:30:59,599
Speaker 4: Red zone defenses are similar, but Army defensively one twenty

1862
01:30:59,640 --> 01:31:02,880
Speaker 4: first overall defensive success rate in ninety seventh against the run.

1863
01:31:03,000 --> 01:31:04,080
Speaker 3: I do not think.

1864
01:31:03,920 --> 01:31:07,160
Speaker 4: They are going to be equipped to stop Tesca and

1865
01:31:07,280 --> 01:31:10,240
Speaker 4: Hide and Reich and Horvath and what they want to

1866
01:31:10,280 --> 01:31:13,719
Speaker 4: do offensively For Navy. The Knights do not create any havoc,

1867
01:31:13,760 --> 01:31:17,000
Speaker 4: they don't generate pressure, They're not living in the opponent's backfield,

1868
01:31:17,360 --> 01:31:19,080
Speaker 4: and I just think the Mids will get whatever they

1869
01:31:19,120 --> 01:31:21,280
Speaker 4: want here. I think this will be a game that

1870
01:31:21,360 --> 01:31:23,360
Speaker 4: will see you know, I could always start off so

1871
01:31:23,600 --> 01:31:25,719
Speaker 4: like they always do. So if you like under first quarter,

1872
01:31:25,800 --> 01:31:28,400
Speaker 4: under seven and a half, you could look that way perhaps,

1873
01:31:28,400 --> 01:31:33,160
Speaker 4: But the Army offense is just not as potent or

1874
01:31:33,200 --> 01:31:36,800
Speaker 4: as successful as we saw last year with Kanye Udo,

1875
01:31:37,240 --> 01:31:39,920
Speaker 4: with Bryce and Daily. They're just not equipped with the

1876
01:31:40,040 --> 01:31:43,040
Speaker 4: explosivity that we've come to know and love from Army.

1877
01:31:43,120 --> 01:31:48,400
Speaker 4: So there's just these small, little marginal increases of data

1878
01:31:48,479 --> 01:31:50,519
Speaker 4: that favor Navy, and it all leads up for me

1879
01:31:50,560 --> 01:31:52,519
Speaker 4: to I have no issue laying the points here. This

1880
01:31:52,560 --> 01:31:55,360
Speaker 4: could end up fourteen seventeen and I get burned by

1881
01:31:55,400 --> 01:31:57,800
Speaker 4: laying some points here. But I'd be more inclined to

1882
01:31:57,800 --> 01:32:01,360
Speaker 4: think this is twenty eight ten than a closer game.

1883
01:32:01,360 --> 01:32:03,920
Speaker 4: I think Navy is a supremely more talented team this year.

1884
01:32:04,120 --> 01:32:08,760
Speaker 2: Twenty eight elivey, we will that get it done for you?

1885
01:32:08,840 --> 01:32:11,559
Speaker 3: Colm? No, you need twenty Hey, I I scoop the

1886
01:32:11,560 --> 01:32:14,120
Speaker 3: thirty seven app, but I'd still play thirty eight. I'd

1887
01:32:14,120 --> 01:32:17,160
Speaker 3: play listen. Pretty needs to know I'm playing the over

1888
01:32:17,479 --> 01:32:19,360
Speaker 3: until the market settles at forty one and a half.

1889
01:32:19,439 --> 01:32:23,080
Speaker 3: All right, We'll be doing this podcast some fifteen years taking.

1890
01:32:22,840 --> 01:32:26,120
Speaker 2: The over wore you out of here. Draftings Parlay Bowl

1891
01:32:26,120 --> 01:32:28,120
Speaker 2: Part one If you missed it, arli R. Do you

1892
01:32:28,120 --> 01:32:31,639
Speaker 2: need a reminder? We have seven We have seven parts

1893
01:32:32,120 --> 01:32:35,439
Speaker 2: for a bowl preview. We will be recording part two,

1894
01:32:36,520 --> 01:32:38,800
Speaker 2: which includes the other three College Wall playoff games and

1895
01:32:38,800 --> 01:32:41,439
Speaker 2: I think six or seven other bowls. We'll be recording

1896
01:32:41,439 --> 01:32:43,240
Speaker 2: part two a week from today. But for we, I

1897
01:32:43,280 --> 01:32:47,200
Speaker 2: are dk Draftings Parlay for Bowl Part one. Your favorite piece.

1898
01:32:47,400 --> 01:32:50,679
Speaker 2: You don't have to explain anything, one sentence, favorite bet

1899
01:32:50,720 --> 01:32:53,160
Speaker 2: from all the balls we covered. Duck. Where are we going?

1900
01:32:54,120 --> 01:32:57,040
Speaker 4: Old Dominion highly motivated team. We're going to see the

1901
01:32:57,080 --> 01:32:59,400
Speaker 4: opt outs continue to pour in for South Florida doctors,

1902
01:32:59,479 --> 01:33:01,800
Speaker 4: notes will be staff is already gone. I think Old

1903
01:33:01,800 --> 01:33:04,600
Speaker 4: Dominion gets their first Bowl win for Ricky Ronnie.

1904
01:33:04,320 --> 01:33:07,080
Speaker 3: Col We're gonna go to Missouri State, fifth year quarterback,

1905
01:33:07,120 --> 01:33:10,040
Speaker 3: top twenty in Russian pass explosives.

1906
01:33:09,360 --> 01:33:11,600
Speaker 2: And we're going money line because we're not laying one

1907
01:33:11,640 --> 01:33:12,760
Speaker 2: and a half against Arkansas State.

1908
01:33:13,640 --> 01:33:17,280
Speaker 1: I'm and breeze Jacksonville State plus two and a half.

1909
01:33:17,280 --> 01:33:19,880
Speaker 1: Cam Cook eats in this one. Kilchreese takes five sacks,

1910
01:33:19,920 --> 01:33:21,679
Speaker 1: a couple turnovers, go game.

1911
01:33:21,520 --> 01:33:24,440
Speaker 2: Cucks, and I'm going to close it out with Oklahoma

1912
01:33:24,640 --> 01:33:29,759
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. Oklahoma wins twenty to seventeen

1913
01:33:29,800 --> 01:33:31,799
Speaker 2: on a sand out walk off field goal plus fifteen

1914
01:33:31,880 --> 01:33:36,120
Speaker 2: thirty on dk Old Dominion money line, Missouri State money line,

1915
01:33:36,240 --> 01:33:39,719
Speaker 2: Jacksonville State plus the points Oklahoma plus one and a half.

1916
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:45,320
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us. Thanks to Dallas Duck colin

1917
01:33:45,520 --> 01:33:49,080
Speaker 2: our producer David on the back end. If you have

1918
01:33:49,120 --> 01:33:51,000
Speaker 2: a chance, make sure you subscrab on subscrap subscrap tel

1919
01:33:51,040 --> 01:33:53,120
Speaker 2: Frinton I mean most portly. Thanks all of you for

1920
01:33:53,160 --> 01:33:55,120
Speaker 2: tuning in. You five star review. If you get a second,

1921
01:33:55,120 --> 01:33:57,280
Speaker 2: really ups this out. We will be covered for every

1922
01:33:57,280 --> 01:34:00,920
Speaker 2: single bowl next week this time Part two will be out.

1923
01:34:02,120 --> 01:34:04,519
Speaker 2: Enjoy the games. Make sure you move on. You're gonna

1924
01:34:04,520 --> 01:34:06,200
Speaker 2: be wrong, You're gonna be right. Just move on and

1925
01:34:06,240 --> 01:34:09,400
Speaker 2: enjoy the games. I can't wait for every single college

1926
01:34:09,400 --> 01:34:14,240
Speaker 2: football game. Thanks for tuning in. You agree you just

1927
01:34:14,280 --> 01:34:16,920
Speaker 2: have Oklahoma on there? Do you agree for everyone where

1928
01:34:16,920 --> 01:34:20,200
Speaker 2: there was no fight? Washington, Missouri State or Western Michigan

1929
01:34:20,320 --> 01:34:23,280
Speaker 2: under can't already can't wait for Part two. A lot

1930
01:34:23,280 --> 01:34:25,000
Speaker 2: of funding with the group of pod guys. Thanks for

1931
01:34:25,080 --> 01:34:27,559
Speaker 2: joining me again. We'll see y'all next week's year's Days.

1932
01:34:44,680 --> 01:34:48,120
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1933
01:34:48,560 --> 01:34:51,400
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1934
01:34:51,680 --> 01:34:54,280
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1935
01:34:54,360 --> 01:34:55,200
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler