WEBVTT - Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray Dalio Talks Debt Burden, Bonds

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. I'm Danny Berger, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm so pleased I'm here at the Forbes event sitting

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<v Speaker 1>alongside Ray Dalio, founder of of Course Bridgewater and of

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<v Speaker 1>the Dalio Family Office. Ray, thank you so much for joining.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a treat.

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<v Speaker 1>And look, you've been doing a lot of work. You've

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<v Speaker 1>been busy with these five forces that have been shaping

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<v Speaker 1>the global economy. Just to quickly go through the money

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<v Speaker 1>and debt, internal order and disout order, power, conflict, active nature,

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<v Speaker 1>and technology. I want to start on that first one though,

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<v Speaker 1>because it's a point that you've made globally. But here

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<v Speaker 1>in the US seven trillion dollars in spending but only

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<v Speaker 1>five trillion dollars in revenue, Ray, are we already past

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<v Speaker 1>the point of no return? That the fact we have

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<v Speaker 1>this dynamic means that some sort of crisis is inevitable.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, we're past the point of no return. Meaning when

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<v Speaker 3>debt service payments squeeze out spending, like plaque in the

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<v Speaker 3>circulatory squeezes out the flow of money, the flow of blood.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the same kind of thing could be measured. So

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<v Speaker 3>we're seeing that happen. And then there's a supply and

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<v Speaker 3>a demand issue. The supply of one budget deficit means

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<v Speaker 3>that debt has to be sold, and you have a

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<v Speaker 3>supply demand issue. And we could see it happening in

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<v Speaker 3>the bond market, and we could see that bonds have

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<v Speaker 3>been a bad investment and that there's pressure and interest

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<v Speaker 3>rates and there's borrowing, and that's one of the five factors,

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<v Speaker 3>as you're saying, But that dynamic is happening. People are

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<v Speaker 3>treating it like if it hasn't happened before. They don't

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<v Speaker 3>understand that, like plaque in the arteries, that it builds

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<v Speaker 3>up and they have that exposure. So I think when

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<v Speaker 3>you're looking, I think a particularly vulnerable period is after

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<v Speaker 3>the midterm elections and before for the presidential election, because

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<v Speaker 3>as we connect these forces, we have that issue, the

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<v Speaker 3>dead issue, and we also are going to have a

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<v Speaker 3>great deal of political conflict. That has implications for taxes,

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<v Speaker 3>It has implications for all sorts of things.

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<v Speaker 1>So what does history tell us that this looks like

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<v Speaker 1>when we get closer to that point, Is it yields

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<v Speaker 1>reaching a certain level, is it failed auctions? What would

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<v Speaker 1>you look for to say the time is here? The

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<v Speaker 1>bond temper chantrum is finally occurring.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it could be seen, excuse me, in either of

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<v Speaker 3>the bond market the market action, it's by long rates rising.

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<v Speaker 2>Relative to short rates.

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<v Speaker 3>In other words, they're trying to hold the short rates

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<v Speaker 3>down and the long rates are rising, and we're seeing

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<v Speaker 3>some of that, and then you're seeing the weakening then

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<v Speaker 3>of the dollar, and then you're seeing movements such as

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<v Speaker 3>in gold and other assets. And when you see that

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<v Speaker 3>rise in rates, then that starts to affect the stock

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<v Speaker 3>market because what's happened now is that with bonds going

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<v Speaker 3>down and stocks going up, the perspective returns now of

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<v Speaker 3>stocks are now down low relative to the perspective returns

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<v Speaker 3>of bonds, and so that upward pressure then starts to

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<v Speaker 3>translate into a stock market pressure. That is the classic

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<v Speaker 3>dynamic and something that the feder Reserve than or any

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<v Speaker 3>central bank is in a position of not easily being

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<v Speaker 3>able to manage because it becomes more of a stagflationary environment.

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<v Speaker 3>So the stagflation that we're seeing right now, the Fed

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<v Speaker 3>wrestles with the question if it's tightening or if it's easing.

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<v Speaker 3>That also has in a economy where there is such

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<v Speaker 3>a wealth disparity but also think about the implication of

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<v Speaker 3>whether you own stocks or whether you don't own stocks,

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<v Speaker 3>and that difference, that impact is very different, that has

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<v Speaker 3>huge political implications.

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<v Speaker 2>Say give you that's where that period, because this.

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<v Speaker 1>Is an administration that has been very explicit in its

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<v Speaker 1>desire for cuts. And this is part of the reason

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<v Speaker 1>that Kevin Worsh is now our FED chair, who, of

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<v Speaker 1>course is said I am independent.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think throughout.

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<v Speaker 1>History there's often been bond markets that test a Federal

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<v Speaker 1>Reserve chair. Is Kevin Worsh about to get a big test?

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<v Speaker 3>Of course, one man's debts or another man's assets, Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>And if there's not a high enough real return, then

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<v Speaker 3>those bonds are not appreciated.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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<v Speaker 3>So what are you holding the bond for? You're holding

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<v Speaker 3>it for a real return. So the markets, ultimately, the

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<v Speaker 3>marketplace can ultimately decide whether it owns.

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<v Speaker 2>It or not. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think we head to the nineteen thirties again,

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<v Speaker 1>where it's a treasury that works with the Fed. That's

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<v Speaker 1>some of that independence has kind of chipped away out

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<v Speaker 1>of a necessity to keep debt servicing costs low.

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<v Speaker 3>For example, that's I think it's exactly headed to that

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<v Speaker 3>kind of thing, which we also saw a number of

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<v Speaker 3>times through quantitative easing.

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<v Speaker 2>It's called financial repression, and.

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<v Speaker 3>The idea is that you drive the bond yields down

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<v Speaker 3>with buying of assets and so on. Sometimes it includes

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<v Speaker 3>even foreign exchange controls to try to prevent money from

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<v Speaker 3>going outside the country and so on, but to have

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<v Speaker 3>that forced low real rates, and then that's usually accompanied

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<v Speaker 3>by high taxation and a higher level of inflation to

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<v Speaker 3>bring in revenue. And because money wants to go to

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<v Speaker 3>other things, that's when gold has been illegalized. That's when

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<v Speaker 3>foreign exchange controls come in, and so and so forth.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not saying we're going that far, but I do

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<v Speaker 3>think the real is, yes, that the bond market either

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<v Speaker 3>is fundamentally good by providing a high enough real return

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<v Speaker 3>to compensate people, or it's going to be manipulated in

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<v Speaker 3>a sense this way that will make it unattractive. In

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<v Speaker 3>either case, it's relatively unattractive, and so money goes elsewhere,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's just the way it works.

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<v Speaker 1>You've also been very forward and very early saying that

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<v Speaker 1>the Strait of hor Moose is an issue for the US,

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<v Speaker 1>and people followed on and said that and now it

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<v Speaker 1>feels like we're ignoring it. I know you've compared this

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<v Speaker 1>to the suice crisis in nineteen fifty six. Are we

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<v Speaker 1>heading toward similar environment where we become Britain where if

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<v Speaker 1>we can't control the strait of hormoose, that is something

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<v Speaker 1>that could also cause a crisis of confidence in the

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<v Speaker 1>US and US financial markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Ultimately, what we're seeing now indisputably. And I travel around

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<v Speaker 3>the world and I speak with world leader. I was

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<v Speaker 3>just a month in Asia and ten days in China

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<v Speaker 3>and someone and what we're seeing around the world is

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<v Speaker 3>the question of will the United States? Can the United

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<v Speaker 3>States fight a war in defense or an offsetting set

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<v Speaker 3>of pressures of other powers, particularly China and in Asia.

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<v Speaker 3>Right now, all the leaders I spoke with would say,

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<v Speaker 3>it's clear that the United States cannot fight a war

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<v Speaker 3>because the population doesn't want the cost of living impact that,

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<v Speaker 3>they don't want people to die, they don't want they

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<v Speaker 3>want it to be over fast. Okay. And also the

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<v Speaker 3>country can't be over extended. How can it fight a

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<v Speaker 3>war in the Middle East and fight a war there?

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<v Speaker 3>It's getting over extended now, that fact that realization is

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<v Speaker 3>having very big geo political implications for those who expect

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<v Speaker 3>because there was a policy of containment for China. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>there's Taiwan issue, and then around the Taiwan issue, our

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<v Speaker 3>questions of borders and so on, there was a process

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<v Speaker 3>of Containment's that's over pretty much, and so as a

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<v Speaker 3>result of that, there's a dynamic Taiwan and Taiwan's very

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<v Speaker 3>serious case because it's not just political, it's chips and

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<v Speaker 3>for example, it's entirely within the power of the Chinese

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<v Speaker 3>government to basically say, let's take it, let's put a

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<v Speaker 3>block eight or and let's have a week of no

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<v Speaker 3>chips out coming out. Let's just imagine that that signal

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<v Speaker 3>was given to the market. All the texts, all the socks,

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<v Speaker 3>Ai stocks and everything would crash.

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<v Speaker 2>The stock market would crash.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, And considering how high we're coming from, I would

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<v Speaker 1>kind of love to combine these ideas because on one hand,

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<v Speaker 1>you have the spending we're already doing. War has been

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly expensive, that's more spending from the US. And then

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<v Speaker 1>there's AI and the desire for AI sovereignty. Debt markets

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<v Speaker 1>are being flooded with AI alphabet raising their equity offering

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<v Speaker 1>to eighty five billion dollars. Are you concerned that there's

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<v Speaker 1>a crowding out happening in this market? Can we handle that.

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<v Speaker 2>Amount that's coming. All great technology changes.

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<v Speaker 3>Produce bubbles, and the reason they produce bubbles is because

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<v Speaker 3>nobody can get.

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<v Speaker 2>It exactly right.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, you have to either spend a ton of money

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<v Speaker 3>to capture your market share and so on, and don't

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<v Speaker 3>worry about whether it's too much or not, or you

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<v Speaker 3>don't spend enough money and you lose your market share.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's very imprecise with a lot of competition.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay. And then when people bet.

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<v Speaker 3>On the technology, which I'll bet on the technology, but

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<v Speaker 3>they think that buying the stocks is betting on the technologies,

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<v Speaker 3>which is a different thing because the stocks can be

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<v Speaker 3>expensive and so on.

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<v Speaker 2>That's that's a problem.

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<v Speaker 3>And what happens is when wealth grows a lot relative

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<v Speaker 3>to incomes. I want to distinguish wealth from incomes. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>wealth is you can create wealth very easily in the

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<v Speaker 3>following way. You say, I'm going to have a raise

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<v Speaker 3>fifty billion dollars fifty million dollars on a billion dollar valuation. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>that's counted as a billion dollars of money, and now

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<v Speaker 3>you're a billionaire, but you only put up fifty million, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>and so wealth you cannot spend wealth. Wealth is you

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<v Speaker 3>have to sell wealth to get money because you can

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<v Speaker 3>only spend money. So when there's a lot of wealth

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<v Speaker 3>relative to the amount of money there is there is

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<v Speaker 3>a vulnerability in bubbles burst when money, when wealth needs

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<v Speaker 3>to be converted into money. What is Often that's because

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<v Speaker 3>of debt, but it could be for anything.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be for wealth taxes.

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<v Speaker 3>For example, supposing you put in wealth taxes, then those

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<v Speaker 3>people who have wealth are going to have to sell

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<v Speaker 3>some of that wealth to pay taxes. That dynamic that

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<v Speaker 3>I'm talking about a companies the miracle technologies that over

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<v Speaker 3>a period of time have wonderful implications for productivity. So

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it has a problem with productivity. I

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<v Speaker 3>do think, but productivity, it has a big wealth gap implication.

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<v Speaker 3>A very small percentage of the population is going to

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<v Speaker 3>do unbelievably and a lot of people won't.

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<v Speaker 2>So what do we do?

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<v Speaker 3>Can we work together politically to deal with those issues?

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<v Speaker 2>And how do you do? I do not believe. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not optimistic on us working together to solve So what's

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<v Speaker 2>the end is it a bubble.

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<v Speaker 3>That person actually so I think it is, yes, And

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<v Speaker 3>then that moment there's always the issue of a bubble,

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<v Speaker 3>and we can measure a bubble. I have indicators, and

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<v Speaker 3>there's how many people are over owned, what's the sentiment?

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of indicators for bubble.

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<v Speaker 3>And we are right now rising close to closer to

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<v Speaker 3>not at the same level in two thousand and same

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<v Speaker 3>level in nineteen twenty nine.

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<v Speaker 1>Specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one

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<v Speaker 1>that we really need to wear.

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<v Speaker 3>The thing about it is there's two parts to it.

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<v Speaker 3>There is a quote a bubble, and then there's the

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<v Speaker 3>pricking of the bubble. And the pricking of the bubble

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<v Speaker 3>happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold

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<v Speaker 3>to get the money, like normally in a dynamic of.

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<v Speaker 2>A debt problem.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, if you take Japanese a bubble, take the twenty

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<v Speaker 3>nine bubble, take the two thousand bubble, all of them

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<v Speaker 3>have an element of tightening money to because it can't

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<v Speaker 3>go on forever.

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<v Speaker 2>It'll find its bubble.

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<v Speaker 3>The question is how long you let the bubble go

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<v Speaker 3>before there's the pricking. So in order to do the

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<v Speaker 3>market timing, to know how to market time. It requires

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<v Speaker 3>both the understanding of the bubble and the looking for

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<v Speaker 3>the pricking. And the pricking is the converting of wealth

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<v Speaker 3>into money because I need money in order, but I

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<v Speaker 3>have wealth, but so I have to sell some of

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<v Speaker 3>the wealth in order to get the money.

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<v Speaker 2>That's how it works.

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<v Speaker 3>That dynamic is following that kind of path, even though

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<v Speaker 3>it's a wonderful technology that'll have great.

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<v Speaker 1>Ray, we could talk about this all day, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>so upset out of time because I know you're using

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<v Speaker 1>it specifically in your family office. We're going to talk again,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically about that, because I'm really interested to hear more

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<v Speaker 1>about that too. Ray, thank you so much for sitting

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<v Speaker 1>down with me. Really appreciate your time. That, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is Ray Dalio here at the Forbes Aconoclast event