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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing in Joe. I'm saying

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Speaker 1: it to cash stop.

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Speaker 2: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 2: to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaba and we are conderway.

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Speaker 1: What is up?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 4: This is your NFL Week five betting preview where we'll

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Speaker 4: talk about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and of course

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Speaker 4: we will build our weekly Sunday six pack of against

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Speaker 4: the spread bats with the help of my co host Stucky,

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Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Stuff I have? It's going on another really good week,

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Speaker 3: A bittersweet result in the Ravens game. You know a

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Speaker 3: lot of people out there had three and a half.

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Speaker 3: I know not everyone can get the same numbers. People

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Speaker 3: have like real lives and jobs. Someone who's asked me,

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Speaker 3: when should you buy at three and a half? It

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Speaker 3: depends on the game and totals. There's other factors, but

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Speaker 3: you can get minus one twenty that's fine, twenty five

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Speaker 3: thirty or thirty, don't twenty five years starting to push it.

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Speaker 3: Usually they make you pay thirty. But that game, so

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Speaker 3: for a number of reasons, I was happy and sad,

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Speaker 3: so I covered, but I wanted everyone to cover, which sucked.

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Speaker 3: I'm a Ravens fan, which sucked. Have a Raven's future,

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Speaker 3: which sucked because that could decide the one seed for

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Speaker 3: tie breakers. And but on the flip side, I think

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Speaker 3: that that could potentially create value and perception flawed perception

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Speaker 3: with this raven seams, which we'll get into today. And

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Speaker 3: I had that spot circled against the Bills that playoff

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Speaker 3: lost a couple of years ago. Guess is going to

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Speaker 3: have that spot circled again if they meet again in January.

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Speaker 3: So in a way and losing in heartbreaking fashion like that.

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Speaker 3: And the worst thing of all though is and I

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Speaker 3: said this Sunday morning, I said, I'm starting to shake.

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Speaker 3: I did a gift of a guy shaking, and just

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Speaker 3: trauma is, Oh my god. We have Jerome Boger and

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Speaker 3: he essentially ruined the game. I don't know if the

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Speaker 3: Bills still would have won. Everyone will talk about the

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Speaker 3: roughing the passers Josh Allen was crying for and he

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Speaker 3: got on one of the worst you'll ever see. Whatever

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Speaker 3: that happens in NFL games, it's awful. I hate it.

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Speaker 3: We should be able to review these things really quickly.

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Speaker 3: You don't review every penalty, review the ruffings and the

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Speaker 3: hits to the head. They do it in college. They

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Speaker 3: just go off real quick. They look is it targeting? Nope,

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Speaker 3: no targeting, pick up a flag. They are too important

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Speaker 3: of penalties like go over this every year. So we'll

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Speaker 3: talk about the raids here, surely. But another really good week.

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Speaker 3: Who cares though. We're on to the next and they're

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Speaker 3: not all going to be good weeks, but hopefully we

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Speaker 3: can keep them going for as long as possible.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, this was kind of a bittersweet start

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Speaker 4: to the pod for me because I know you're a Ravenstan,

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Speaker 4: but I kind of expected you to go and shout

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Speaker 4: out your man, Bailey Zappy, you know, to open it up,

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Speaker 4: Bailey Zappy. I'm Jeffist, yeah obviously, but now yeah, now

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Speaker 4: it's like mac Joes maybe back you know, it's day

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Speaker 4: by day though, day by day.

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Speaker 3: I know, yeah, maybe it's a Belichick like pump fake

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Speaker 3: but he was like moving around out there and looked

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Speaker 3: okay when I was watching some clips of him. We'll

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Speaker 3: talk about that game. But yeah, everyone was tweeting and

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Speaker 3: texting me. They're like, you said this on the pod.

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Speaker 3: Everyone with a Packer's Survivor too, was like when Huia

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Speaker 3: went down, I was like, oh my god, stuck. He

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Speaker 3: said this, that asshole is gonna be right and the Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Patriots kind of played it way too conservatively and

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Speaker 3: they didn't play it like a big dog, and they

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Speaker 3: got to the overtime and they kind of shiit the bed.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, Zappi coming in was amazing. I bet him

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Speaker 3: live a bunch too. As soon as he came in,

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Speaker 3: So shout out to Zappi Hour, who we have we

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Speaker 3: called on our college podcast for for the past two years.

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Speaker 3: I'm excited that he got a chance to get in there. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: we'll see who goes this week. We'll talk about that

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Speaker 3: game later. Though.

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Speaker 4: You called Picket coming in too, so you were you

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Speaker 4: were pretty on fire with the calls.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, Mitch Bortles. Bortles who retired today and Mitch

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Speaker 3: is relegated to backups, so it's kind of fitting in

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Speaker 3: a way.

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Speaker 4: I got a mitchstat for later in the show, and

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Speaker 4: a quick heads up to our listeners that Friday is

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Speaker 4: the start of the MLB Playoffs. That means Action Networks

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Speaker 4: baseball betting podcast Payoff Pitch. We'll have new episodes basically

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Speaker 4: every weekday from this Friday through the World Series. So

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Speaker 4: if you want to bet some playoff baseball, check out

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Speaker 4: the Payoff Pitch podcast. All right, let's talk Thursday Night

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Speaker 4: football and get it started with tonight's game between the

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Speaker 4: Coats and the Broncos.

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Speaker 3: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 4: This game is like the battle of the teams without

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Speaker 4: the with their running back injuries, you know, Jonathan Taylor's out,

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Speaker 4: Davonte Williams went down last week. Both of these offenses,

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Speaker 4: I mean the passing games. Yeah, it's been it's been

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Speaker 4: a struggle. By the way, the Colts are three and

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Speaker 4: a half point dogs on FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: The total is forty two and a half.

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Speaker 4: But I do feel like the Broncos can you know,

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Speaker 4: have some matchup advantages in the sense that, like in theory,

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Speaker 4: their passing games should be better, Like they have the

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Speaker 4: better quarterback, they have the better receivers. It hasn't exactly

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Speaker 4: turned out like that, but Matt Ron that Colts offensive line,

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: What happened to the Colts offensive gone.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just like, oh, like the guys that used

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Speaker 4: to be good at football are not good at football

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Speaker 4: anymore on that offensive line. So in that sense, I

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Speaker 4: kind of feel like the Broncos have some some matchup advantages.

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Speaker 1: I mean they have they still.

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Speaker 3: Have a Gregory Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, thirty pressures. I think I haven't written down. I

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Speaker 4: think he's no nineteen pressures. He was top five, uh

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Speaker 4: in pressures even though he only had a couple of sacks.

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Speaker 1: So that is big. Well, I like I like the

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Speaker 1: fact that they could put their ten on Pittman.

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Speaker 3: Uh no tail Yeah. So yeah, even if even if

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Speaker 3: Darby wasn't playing well, Matt Ryan is throwing the ball

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Speaker 3: like what's his average steph with target like four yards?

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Speaker 3: Like he's there's no time, He's not throwing the ball

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Speaker 3: deep at all. So if you take away Pittman, which

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Speaker 3: Ryan and the offensive line have basically taken him out already,

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Speaker 3: but and there's no tailor, and the offensive line has

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Speaker 3: already taken. I just don't know how the Colts are

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Speaker 3: really going to move the ball here to help that.

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Speaker 3: There's no Gregory, but the Broncos will get pressure. In

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Speaker 3: the past, he's been really good on the other On

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Speaker 3: the other side, it just comes down to, you know,

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Speaker 3: there's no Travante Williams. Are they gonna put Melvin Gordon

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Speaker 3: out there?

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Speaker 5: Like?

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Speaker 3: Is you just gonna fubble the game?

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Speaker 6: Why?

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Speaker 3: So that's a wild guard. We'll see. I'm assuming they're

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Speaker 3: gonna have a committee. But when is Rusk gonna kind

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Speaker 3: of break out of this and look, you're playing there's

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Speaker 3: no shock Shaq Leonards out again again again he played

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Speaker 3: like eight snaps and got hurt Defares Buckner was limited

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Speaker 3: last week. What will Russ do? So in a way,

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to see. Okay, there's no Javonte Williams. You

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Speaker 3: don't have as much confidence in the explosiveness of your backfield.

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Speaker 3: Do you let kind of Russ? You know what we've

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Speaker 3: been arguing for what they should have been doing in Seattle,

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Speaker 3: which they are doing now. Let Russ try to run

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Speaker 3: around and create more and be himself instead of like

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Speaker 3: in this box that he's obviously not thriving in. But

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Speaker 3: I will say we talked about this earlier, right before

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Speaker 3: we went on to record. We mentioned the Dolphins last

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Speaker 3: week and the play that ended the game was Bridgewater

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Speaker 3: came in and then him and a receiver had a miscommunication,

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Speaker 3: and you know, I also tweeted it out. I said,

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Speaker 3: that's that's short week, backup quarterback in and you just

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Speaker 3: can't you can't run that route. By the way, I

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Speaker 3: don't think it was a pick though they didn't. They didn't,

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Speaker 3: they didn't review it. I think it might have skimmed.

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Speaker 4: He got he got under I watched it. I think

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Speaker 4: he got under it. It looked like he dropped it,

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Speaker 4: but he actually just it was so directly to him

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Speaker 4: that it just like the ball cart him essentially from

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Speaker 4: what I saw.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, so, but regardless, the that's the kind of

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Speaker 3: like a maybe something that happens with a rookie head coach,

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Speaker 3: and historically rookie head coaches, which we have here with

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Speaker 3: the Broncos, have not fared well on Thursday night football,

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Speaker 3: which makes sense. It's short prep, but something you're not

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Speaker 3: used to. You got to do a game playing quickly.

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Speaker 3: If you're going up against a veteran coach like, right,

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Speaker 3: maybe you are at a disadvantager eight eight, sixteen and

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Speaker 3: one over the past twenty five games on Thursday Night

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Speaker 3: football against the spread. So yeah, I mean you're going

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Speaker 3: to altitude in the short way. There's I could make

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Speaker 3: a case for every every side here. So you know

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Speaker 3: what I'm doing. I'm gonna look to see pull up

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Speaker 3: the Action Network AP and I'm going to see what

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Speaker 3: you or my guy Sean Kerner that's on a prop.

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Speaker 3: And I'm gonna bet a Thursday Night player prop that

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Speaker 3: will be my action in this game because I want

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Speaker 3: no part. It's ugly. Iowill Colts.

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Speaker 1: By the way, we should shout out I gut.

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Speaker 4: Kerner was number one in the Week four Fantasy accuracy,

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Speaker 4: so he's up to six for the year and I'm

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Speaker 4: at two. So we got two Action Network employees in

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Speaker 4: the top six, so hopefully we can keep it up

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Speaker 4: with shouts.

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Speaker 3: It was a very sly way of announcing that you're

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Speaker 3: second shot out the top six because I'm second.

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Speaker 1: It was very well but we digress. Yeah, this game

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Speaker 1: is ugly.

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Speaker 4: Frank Reich, you know, might have a little advantage here

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Speaker 4: over the rookie head coach, although I don't I don't

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Speaker 4: know what advantage right. I mean, he seems like ever

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Speaker 4: since what was it that game against the Raiders I

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Speaker 4: think last year that they blew.

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Speaker 1: It just seems like this coach team is flat. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he.

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Speaker 4: Still has it, but he is ten and three against

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Speaker 4: the spread when he's catching more than a field goal

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Speaker 4: as a dog seventy seven so and in that cover

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Speaker 4: against Casey. So for what it's worth, the Colts are

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Speaker 4: probably the right side if you are going to bet it.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think this is a put player prop

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Speaker 4: only game for me as well.

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Speaker 3: Let's jump out by the way, Colts unders nine straight

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Speaker 3: unders by nine points per game on average. If I

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Speaker 3: had to bet this, it's a primetime game, short week

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Speaker 3: with our bats, I would lean under here.

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Speaker 1: But sta it seems like an under game.

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Speaker 4: But you know, are these teams is gonna come out

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Speaker 4: and throw me? I know they're not confident in Melvin Gordon.

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Speaker 4: And on the other side, Naim Hines is probably gonna

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Speaker 4: have to be your lead back and then you're gonna

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Speaker 4: probably use Lindsay, who you know hasn't been on an

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Speaker 4: NFL roster in a while. So yeah, it's it's a

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Speaker 4: dicey one, but that's Thursday Night football. Let us now

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Speaker 4: jump in two the week five Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Packs Thursday per Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: So let's get into it this week. Got to get

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Speaker 4: back on, got to get one of those sweeps. I

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Speaker 4: know I fucked it up in Week one with I

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Speaker 4: forget who it was. I think it was the Dolphins.

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Speaker 4: I don't know who I had, but whatever game I had,

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Speaker 4: we went five to one, so we're still looking for

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Speaker 4: that sweep. I'll start us off with the first pick

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Speaker 4: of the Week five Sunday six pat presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 4: I am going with the Philadelphia Eagles minus five and

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Speaker 4: a half against the Arizona Cardinals, and I really like

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Speaker 4: this matchup for Philly. Listen, they put up four hundred

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Speaker 4: yards of total offense in every single game. Arizona doesn't

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Speaker 4: have the cornerbacks to defend aj Brown Davonte Smith the

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Speaker 4: twenty ninth in DVOA against tight ends, so they could

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Speaker 4: struggle with Goddard as well, even.

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Speaker 1: Okay in run defense.

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Speaker 4: But Philadelphia just ran for two hundred and ten yards

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Speaker 4: four touchdowns against the Jacksonville defense that came into the

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Speaker 4: week as a top run defense, so not really worried

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Speaker 4: about anything in terms of Philadelphia offense. And then on

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Speaker 4: the other side, you know this Cardinal team, and I

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Speaker 4: bet on the Cardinals last week, and it was a struggle.

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Speaker 4: If we weren't facing Baker Mayfield, which was really the

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Speaker 4: whole reason I was betting on them last week, it

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Speaker 4: would have been it would have been really ugly. But

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Speaker 4: this team, they tend to play better. I don't know

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Speaker 4: what it is, but they tend to play better away

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Speaker 4: from home.

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Speaker 1: You know, they go on the road.

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Speaker 4: I think there's something like fifteen and three on the

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Speaker 4: road over the last eighteen with Cliff, but at home

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Speaker 4: just nine and seventeen against the spread thirty five percent.

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Speaker 1: And they're always sat.

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Speaker 3: On that King Kingsbury nine seventeen against the spread at home, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: nineteen seven and two against the spread on the road.

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Speaker 3: I think I think it's Kingsbury has his models out there,

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Speaker 3: Kyler's playing call of duty. When they got on the road,

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Speaker 3: they just get focused for some reason.

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Speaker 1: It's crazy.

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Speaker 4: And here's I mean, I'm going to actually talk about

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Speaker 4: football with this is like the trend is crazy. It

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Speaker 4: makes me feel better about it. Not my usual bet

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Speaker 4: five and a half point road favorite, but you know,

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Speaker 4: looking at this, it may it does make some sense

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Speaker 4: because they haven't covered in their last seven games at home.

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Speaker 4: The last time they covered at home October twenty fourth

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Speaker 4: last year, thirty one to five win over the lowly

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Speaker 4: Houston Texans. That was the last time DeAndre Hopkins played

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Speaker 4: a full game at home for them. It's just a

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Speaker 4: major loss for them on offense because since last year

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Speaker 4: they played just about the same amount of games with

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Speaker 4: them without Hopkins, so we have a good kind of

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Speaker 4: sample size to compare ten games with Hopkins eleven games

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Speaker 4: without them. With Hopkins, Kyler doesn't really turn the ball

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Speaker 4: over under half an interception per game without Hopkins, it doubles.

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Speaker 4: Now he's throwing about a pick per game with Hopkins.

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Speaker 4: Point differential plus eleven point two without Hopkins point differential

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Speaker 4: minus four. That's a fifteen point swing over a twenty

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Speaker 4: plus game sample size and point differential with and without

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Speaker 4: Hopkins in a lineup with Hopkins thirty point two points

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Speaker 4: per game. Without Hopkins nineteen point two points per game,

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Speaker 4: eleven points per game. They're scoring more with Hopkins in

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Speaker 4: a lineup with Hopkins eight point one yards per attempt passing,

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Speaker 4: that would be right up there near the league's leaders.

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Speaker 4: Without him six point one yards per attempt a two

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Speaker 4: yard drop, which would put you near the worst in

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Speaker 4: the league. Kyler Murray this year, here's my stat for you,

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Speaker 4: Kyler Murray this year averaging five point seven yards per

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Speaker 4: past attempt that is second to last, ahead of only

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Speaker 4: Mitch Trubisky.

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia number one in.

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Speaker 4: Net yards allowed per pass this year at four point three.

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Speaker 4: So I know this is a spot where usually you know,

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Speaker 4: Sharks go and they hit the home dog, and I

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Speaker 4: just don't believe in Arizona. They've they've proven that they

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Speaker 4: are not a team that is going to come through

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Speaker 4: at home. And I just think this Philly team is

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Speaker 4: rolling right now. And I think there was kind of

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Speaker 4: a wake up call for him last week going down

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Speaker 4: early to Jacksonville. So I think they come out take

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Speaker 4: care of business here, and it's just been a struggle

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Speaker 4: for Kyler and it's going to be a struggle until

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Speaker 4: they got Hopkins back. They still got another week. I mean,

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Speaker 4: Rondyll Moore comes back last week and he gets like

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Speaker 4: what the same amount of yards as targets.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just ugly for this offense right now.

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Speaker 3: But that until you go away from Greg Dortch.

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Speaker 1: Guess who Greg Torch.

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Speaker 3: He's got Torch. Why don't big Torch. I wanted the

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Speaker 3: back to Cardinals here, but then I remember it was

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Speaker 3: Fliff Kingsbury and I'm not. The way that they're coming

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Speaker 3: out every game is stunning. They're never prepared, and I

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Speaker 3: said it happened again, Lester. This year. They're being outscored

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Speaker 3: in the first hast sixty six to sixteen. In the

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Speaker 3: second half of overtime, they're outscoring their opponent seventy two

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Speaker 3: to thirty seven. I mean, it's just stunning. So if

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Speaker 3: you follow Chris here and take the Eagles, you might

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Speaker 3: also have a chance to, you know, get the court

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Speaker 3: if you want to sprinkle a little middle for the Cardinals.

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Speaker 3: There's a couple things I am worried about with the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: Some secondary injuryes Sleigh practice today, which was good, the

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Speaker 3: offensive line. More importantly, they got a couple guys banged up.

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Speaker 3: Mayata did not practice today and he was not seen anywhere,

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Speaker 3: which is bad. He's one of the most important players

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Speaker 3: offside of skill position guys. But I do think the

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Speaker 3: Eagles won't have any trouble moving the ball. I do

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Speaker 3: think the Eagles are going to start to get and

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Speaker 3: are are starting to get a little overvalued. Although I

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Speaker 3: don't hate playing them here. They benefited a lot from turnovers.

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Speaker 3: I mean what, the Jacks had five turnovers last week.

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Speaker 3: Kyle Mur's legs could be a factor here. So I'm

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Speaker 3: in because, look, the Eagles. A lot of their success

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Speaker 3: on defense this year has been their ability to generate pressure,

337
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Speaker 3: and they've been doing so against quarterbacks who can't move right.

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Speaker 3: They played golf, they played Cousins, they played Wentz, and

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Speaker 3: they played Lawrence. None of them run. So we'll see

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Speaker 3: if Murray's legs play a part here. But I wanted

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Speaker 3: to face the Eagles here, but I'm not, so I

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Speaker 3: don't disagree with you. And if the Eagles win this game,

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Speaker 3: like ready, tell me when, tell me when you're gonna

344
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Speaker 3: fade them, and they're gonna get over valued home against

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys next week, home against the Steelers. That's it.

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Speaker 4: This is the team that they were favored in every

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Speaker 4: remaining game, right, that was the big talking point where

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Speaker 4: you going which first?

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Speaker 3: All right? For my first pick of the week five

350
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Speaker 3: Sunday six Pack, I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens minus

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Speaker 3: three at home against the Cincinnati Begels on prime time

352
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Speaker 3: Sunday night. Look, the Ravens are two and two, which

353
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Speaker 3: is disappointing, should be four, and now they blow at

354
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Speaker 3: ninety nine percent win probability against the Dolphins. Couple guys

355
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Speaker 3: were out in the secondary, you know, a rookie makeup,

356
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Speaker 3: mistaken to playing a really explosive offense, and they just

357
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Speaker 3: gave the game way the game where they fubbled at

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Speaker 3: the one. Okay, fast forward to another game against the

359
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Speaker 3: Bills and the best team in the league at home.

360
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Speaker 3: You're up twenty to three. You're playing you know, and

361
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Speaker 3: by the way, this whole season, you haven't had your

362
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Speaker 3: your full offensive line, you haven't had your full healthy backfield.

363
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Speaker 3: Last week they lost their top receiver. They're playing with

364
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Speaker 3: a rookie at left tackle going up against Von Miller,

365
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Speaker 3: and they're up twenty to three. I think is still healthy. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he might he might be. He's a little bagged up,

367
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Speaker 3: but yeah, I think he is the number one. This

368
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 3: team could easily easily be four and oh in this

369
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Speaker 3: line would not be anywhere close to three on the

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Speaker 3: flip side. So and look, I think everything is trending

371
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Speaker 3: up with the Ravens. Their secondary is finally healthy. They

372
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Speaker 3: should get Bowser back, and you know, you get Pierre

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Speaker 3: Paul and there's like their edge rushers, which they're really

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Speaker 3: been lacking. I think they're starting to build more depth there.

375
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Speaker 3: And on the offensive line, we'll see if Rodney Stanley

376
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Speaker 3: finally comes back this week. He's five full practices in

377
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Speaker 3: a row. If it doesn't come back, now he's not

378
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Speaker 3: he's officially not real. Dobbin's getting more assimilated into the offense.

379
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Speaker 3: And I think that they can move the ball on

380
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,200
Speaker 3: this Bengals defense. They could take advantage of their linebackers.

381
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Speaker 3: Look on the other side of the ball, this Bengals team,

382
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,399
Speaker 3: their offense is still broken. They couldn't push the Dolphins

383
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 3: for a yard. It was sad to watch, and we

384
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,719
Speaker 3: saw this last year with Zach Taylor. They're I mean,

385
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 3: you go look at their EPA for playing the first

386
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: half worst offense in the league. They're just trying to

387
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,199
Speaker 3: run it into brick walls. Maybe they're afraid of Burrow

388
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 3: in this offensive line not protecting him. But we saw

389
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Speaker 3: all last year. This happened the first like eight to

390
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,679
Speaker 3: ten weeks, and then the Bengals finally took off when

391
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 3: they're just like, all right, let's unleash Burrow. But yeah,

392
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Speaker 3: well I'll get to you know, T Higgins isn't fully healthy,

393
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 3: they can't get the run game going, it's and Burrow

394
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 3: is just not playing well because of all of these factors.

395
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Speaker 3: And if you look at what their wins this year,

396
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Speaker 3: they beat Joe Flacco and they beat the Dolphins, so

397
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Speaker 3: they beat two backup quarterbacks. And in that Dolphins game

398
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Speaker 3: what I called the best spot of the year at

399
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Speaker 3: home against the rookie coach, short week against a team

400
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Speaker 3: that just played ninety defensive snaps on Sunday, that was

401
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 3: missing all of their starting corners by the end of

402
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 3: the game, and you need a pick late against Teddy Bridgewater.

403
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 3: Like not good. The Bengals are still, I think, completely

404
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 3: overvalued from their playoff run last year. They still have

405
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 3: stuff to figure out on the offensive end. I think

406
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 3: the Ravens should be four and a half point favorite here,

407
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 3: maybe more when you put the spot. I don't care

408
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 3: if the Bengals have a couple extra days of prep.

409
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 3: It's Zach Taylor. And by the way, John Harball against

410
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 3: teams with extra prep is thirty two and seventeen against

411
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 3: the spread. But the Ravens have had this game circle

412
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 3: for an entire year. The Bengals were chirping last year

413
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 3: social media and Josh Johnson was the starting quarterback for

414
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 3: one of the meetings. The Bengals played the Ravens late

415
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 3: in the year, who had Deshaun Elliott was their only

416
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 3: remaining starting defensive back and he got hurt in the

417
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 3: first series. It's another classic card Balls spot and we're

418
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Speaker 3: getting the three. And I'll be on some Ravens first

419
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 3: half too. Lamar Jackson now thirty eight and eighteen against

420
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 3: the spreading the first half number one by far in

421
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 3: four and oh this year since coming in the league.

422
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 3: Hardball is like sixty two percent in his career since

423
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Speaker 3: coming in the league. Just unbelievable. They it just hopefully

424
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 3: won't blow another lead here. Also special team's advantage for

425
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Speaker 3: the Ravens. Yeah, this is the spot. I am rarely

426
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Speaker 3: rarely wrong on the Ravens.

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Speaker 4: It wasn't one that I had circled. I certainly see it.

428
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Speaker 4: You're gonna get the Ravens' best effort here. Right, the

429
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 4: number in my own model is right around three. But

430
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Speaker 4: I certainly I think you've ever been wrong about the

431
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 4: Ravens aside from that Browns game.

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Speaker 3: So and I wasn't wrong on that.

433
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 4: For my second pick of the week, five Sunday six

434
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 4: pack presented by FanDuel and the third overall, I am

435
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,640
Speaker 4: going with the Tampa Bay Bucks minus nine at home

436
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 4: against the Atlanta Falcons.

437
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 1: And I've been off.

438
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not. I'm not quitting this like this is

439
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 4: funny because we'll talk. We can talk about this more

440
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 4: the show progresses. But I believe I'm thirty four and

441
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 4: eleven on NFL bets this year, and I think half

442
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 4: of the losses are.

443
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: Just like Bucks and Steelers. But forget out the Bucks.

444
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 4: Let's start talking about the Falcons first, because the Falcons

445
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 4: were a team I think both of us liked coming

446
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 4: into the year, felt they were a little undervalued, will

447
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 4: feistier than people thought. But this is a major wet

448
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 4: down spot for the Atlanta Falcons. They're coming off two

449
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 4: straight upset wins, they're coming off four straight covers. They're

450
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 4: the only team that has not lost the game against

451
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 4: the spread. They're facing a motivated Bucks team that's coming

452
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 4: off two losses, which is almost unheard of, especially for

453
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 4: Tom Brady. But a Bucks team coming off two straight losses,

454
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 4: a Bucks team that's on their third.

455
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 1: Straight home game.

456
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 4: You're doing all this with a defense that's especially going

457
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 4: to be motivated because it gotten barrassed after it gave

458
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 4: the Chiefs some bullets in board material, which I should

459
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 4: have got out of that bet the minute. Shaq Barrett

460
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 4: said that, like I hate when guys do that, like, ah, yeah,

461
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 4: we're gonna have a coming out party against the Chiefs.

462
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 4: Well look, not only do you not, but then they

463
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 4: run all over you as well, insult to injury, So

464
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 4: you know, not ideal, But I.

465
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: Think they'll be back focused this week.

466
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 3: Are you worried about the Bucks stay at all? They're

467
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 3: like getting old or.

468
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 4: So I'll talk like, so I'm not, because I mean

469
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 4: I felt like Mahomes was just on his shit that game,

470
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,719
Speaker 4: Like you could tell it was gonna be a Mahomes

471
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 4: Chiefs game when they came out and immediately they got

472
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 4: whatever they wanted.

473
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,479
Speaker 1: To Kelsey because like if you just like look at

474
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: the matchups, you.

475
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 4: Know, Travis Kelceys obviously one of the most dangerous players

476
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 4: in the weegue. If there's any defense that should be

477
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 4: able to sow him down, it's Tampa Bay.

478
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: But I'm not worried about the d in Here's why.

479
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,880
Speaker 4: Number one for this matchup, the Falcons are without Cordill Patterson,

480
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 4: and that is I know they ran the ball Huntley

481
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 4: and everyone's all excited about Algier and Huntley and pick

482
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 4: up some waivers on fantasy, but Corderle Patterson was different,

483
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 4: like he was a weapon.

484
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 1: He was somebody the defense has had to count for.

485
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 4: He's not just a guy that's in your backfield on

486
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 4: a team that wants to run.

487
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 1: So I think that's a big loss, but the.

488
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: Facts went the opposite. But does he even matter now?

489
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 4: I gave I gave current to the line on our

490
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 4: podcast fifty two and a half receiving yards and Kerner

491
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 4: went under. So it's been rough for Pitts. They're gonna

492
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 4: need him in this game. But listen, look at the Bucks.

493
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 4: This is the Bucks defense this year. They hold downas

494
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 4: to three points, they hold New Orleans to ten points.

495
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 4: Green Bay scores twice first two drives. They keep him

496
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 4: scoreless for the next nine drives of the game to

497
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:26,719
Speaker 4: the point where they had a game they had no

498
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 4: business being in. They almost tied it at the end.

499
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 4: So I consider that a good day by the defense.

500
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 4: You know, if I could get Rogers fourteen points, I'd

501
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 4: take that all day every day. And then they have

502
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 4: a bad game against the best quarterback in the league.

503
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: Okay, now.

504
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,719
Speaker 4: They're going against this Falcons team that Marcus Mariota completed

505
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 4: seven balls last week. I've been you know, I was

506
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 4: fading Bigger Mayfield last week. That worked out well. Well,

507
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 4: Marcus Mariota a guy who I have liked, especially for

508
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 4: fantasy purposes, but he I talked about Mayfield last week

509
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 4: being a the second least accurate passer from a clean pocket,

510
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 4: which is always a troubling thing because pressure, you know,

511
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 4: it's gonna you know, throw things off, but you have

512
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 4: to be able to take you know, kind of capitalizing

513
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 4: a clean pocket. Well, you know who was last Marcus Mariota.

514
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 4: So against this Bucks d that's number three and pass

515
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 4: defense DVA, I think it's gonna be a really rough go,

516
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: especially without Patterson, because he just adds so much in

517
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 4: terms of the creativity to that offense. In the two

518
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 4: games last season, two games with Art since Arthur Smith

519
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 4: took over, Bucks outscored him by at least thirteen in

520
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 4: both games. Seventy eight to forty two in total was

521
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 4: the scores. And you know, the Bucks offense finally should

522
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 4: be healthy. I know Brady's going through some things on

523
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 4: the injury report, but he finished the.

524
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: Game against Casey and looked fine.

525
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 4: I think really what he just needed was his receivers

526
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 4: back and the best. You know, Chris Godwin played eighty

527
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 4: five percent of the snaps last game, caught a bunch

528
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 4: of balls Mike Evans's back, so that's good. And you

529
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 4: know Mayvy will get another game from Julio, who knows

530
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 4: he's kind of on that Shaq Leonard train of like

531
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: does he really exist?

532
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'm gonna I'm gonna.

533
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: Bet against the Falcons continuing to be undefeated against the spread.

534
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet on a quarterback who almost never loses

535
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 4: two in a row any in any time, much less three.

536
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 4: So he is sixty six, thirty seven and two sixty

537
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 4: four percent coming off against the spread. Loss since three,

538
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 4: he is forty three and seventeen seventy two percent against

539
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 4: the spread coming off a straight up loss, he is

540
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 4: eight and two against the spread coming off multiple losses,

541
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 4: and when facing an undefeated team against the spread, he's

542
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 4: fifteen and six seventy one percent, the most profitable quarterback

543
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 4: in that spot in our bet Labs database, which goes

544
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 4: back about two decades. So I'm gonna continue hammer Tampay.

545
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 4: I think this is a smash spot for him. I

546
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 4: know people are going to try to get cute and say,

547
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 4: you know, there's value on the Falcons at the big

548
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 4: number because they've been covering, and the Falcons, by the way,

549
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 4: get no pressure their third lowest and pressure rate. So

550
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 4: finally before and zero against the spread, Atlanta Falcons will

551
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 4: come crashing back down to Earth. Give me Tampa Bay

552
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 4: minus nine.

553
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 3: I agree with the spot. I tease the Bucks little

554
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 3: spoiler teaser for the teaser segment. I will not be

555
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,239
Speaker 3: betting the side, and one of the main reasons is

556
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 3: the head official is Jerome Boger, so good luck.

557
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 1: This is an over.

558
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 4: This could be an over too, Like I don't really

559
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 4: recommend a lot of overs, but the team total over

560
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 4: maybe if you don't like weighing the big number, full

561
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 4: game over first half, Like, there's a lot of ways

562
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 4: you could play this, but I think the Bucks offense

563
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 4: plays well here.

564
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 1: I can't say the same about the Falcons offense.

565
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 3: Yep, all right. For my second pick and the fourth overall,

566
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 3: the Week five NFL Sunday six pack represented by Fandel,

567
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Los Angeles Rams minus five and

568
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 3: a half. I think I'm gonna be on an island

569
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 3: on this one. Everyone I've talked to loves the Cowboys.

570
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 3: I do a couple of radio spot shows. Everyone's saying,

571
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 3: why the Cowboys catching this many points?

572
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: Enough?

573
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 3: Everyone's saying Cooper Rush should be the starting quarterback? Enough

574
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: this Cowboys love this Cooper Rush love has to stop immediately.

575
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 3: So let's break down why. And I'm not a fan

576
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 3: of the Rams. I've been faiting the Rams all year.

577
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: This line is crazy. This is a Cowboys. See it

578
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 3: was just a three point favorite at home against Washington Commanders.

579
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 3: That a dog at the Giants, and here here are

580
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 3: the teams that they're they beat by the way, Cooper

581
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,479
Speaker 3: rushes beat comes back to beat the Giants, he beats

582
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: the Commanders. That we're gonna get into these fraud wins

583
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: in a game that was fifteen to ten of the

584
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 3: fourth quarter. They beat the Bengals when they were in shambles.

585
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 3: They've done nothing take away turnovers on offense from every team.

586
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 3: Let's look at EPA without turnovers the Cowboys this year.

587
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 3: Their offense is thirty first in EPA per play. It's

588
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 3: worse than the Texans. So but why are we taking

589
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 3: away turnovers because Cooper Rush hasn't thrown a pick yet? Well,

590
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 3: if you include penalties that don't get captured in these

591
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 3: his nine turnover worthy plays, go back. I went back

592
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 3: and watched the entire Washington game last week, with which

593
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 3: Washington should have won by the way game is fifteen

594
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: to ten in the fourth quarter. In that game, Washington

595
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 3: had two interceptions that were overturned because of a legal contact.

596
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: Washington also had another overthrown joke deep ball that would

597
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 3: have been picked if the safety didn't fall down trying

598
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 3: to run out under it. That should have been three picks.

599
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: Go back to the Bengals game, three wide open dropped interceptions.

600
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush is not invincible. These turnover worthy plays are coming.

601
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 3: This offense can barely score more than twenty points a game.

602
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 3: The one great aspect of the Rams team this year

603
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 3: has been their run defense. Cowboys aren't going to get

604
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 3: anything on the ground here. It's going to be up

605
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 3: to the Cooper rush, and those mistakes are about to

606
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 3: start flowing in. This is a crazy line. This is

607
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 3: like a line if Dak Prescott was starting for the

608
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 3: Cowboys now all of a sudden, I mean, but now

609
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: makes sense because everyone's saying there's no difference and everyone

610
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 3: is betting the Cowboys. By the way, Sean McVay and

611
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: the Rams have covered five straight games on short rest,

612
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 3: not worried about that. Dallas also traveling here. He's also

613
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: fifteen and eight against the spread after a loss, covering

614
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 3: by about a field goal per game, which is when

615
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 3: I think this line is about a field goal short,

616
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 3: including four and one this past five at the playing

617
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 3: San fran Like, here's the thing, this perception difference. Dallas

618
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 3: beats Washington's of a bunch of dropped legal contacts. The

619
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 3: Rams get blown out by San Francisco. Okay, the Rams

620
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: get blown up by San Francisco every single time they

621
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 3: face them. Sean McVay is it gets owned by Shadahan.

622
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: This is that we know this. I actually was surprised

623
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 3: that the Rams hung in there for as long as

624
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 3: they did. And I just think that there's too much

625
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: value in this in this line because of the love

626
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 3: that Cooper Rush is getting, which is completely unwarranted. Yes,

627
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 3: he had a he managed the game well, and if

628
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 3: you take away the scripted portion of the games, woo.

629
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 3: The numbers are bad. If you include the legit turnover

630
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 3: worthy plays give you a perfect parallel for who I

631
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 3: think Cooper Rush is. Let's go back to twenty nineteen

632
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 3: Panthers Cam Newton got hurt. Kyle Allen starting quarterback Week

633
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 3: three for the rest of the year. Kyle Allen wins

634
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 3: his first four games four and oh straight up, four

635
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 3: and oh against the spread, seven touchdowns, no interceptions. Everyone

636
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 3: is aboard the Kyle Allen trade. Even though he threw

637
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 3: a bunch of turner worth he plays and no one could.

638
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 3: Everyone was dropping interceptions, so the penalties that took away

639
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: some I mean, it's pretty eerie how similar it is.

640
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 3: You know what he finished the rest of the year,

641
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 3: You have to starting four and oh, four and oh

642
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 3: against the spread, he won one game one in eight

643
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:56,479
Speaker 3: straight up, ten touchdowns, sixteen interceptions. His average cover margin

644
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 3: over the final nine games, negative twelve points per game.

645
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 3: He was absolutely horrendous. Now there's also tape on Cooper

646
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 3: Rusher's tape on the scripted portions here there's looming regression.

647
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: Doesn't mean it'll come. Maybe he gets lucky again. I

648
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 3: think there's way too much value in this line. Like

649
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 3: they won the Super Bowl last year there at home

650
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 3: playing Cooper Rush and they're laying four in a four

651
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 3: and a half. Whatever the lines up. I think five

652
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 3: and a half now, not a big difference between four

653
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 3: and five and a half. You're under six. Crazy line

654
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: should be seven. I think this is your okay, it's

655
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: cyber Dak Prescott game.

656
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 4: The one concern I mean there are actually there's multiple

657
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 4: concerns I have about the Rams, but the pressure could

658
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 4: be the equalizer and this one just it. It's been

659
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 4: real tough this year, Like this offense has looked different

660
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 4: because I don't I don't put it on Stafford. I

661
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 4: kind of put it on the front office a little bit.

662
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 4: It's a little bit injuries, but like they're not protecting Stafford.

663
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: He's got no time. No one gets open but Cooper cup.

664
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 4: I do want to take a second for a quick

665
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 4: announcement to any listeners who use the Action App. Thanks

666
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 4: to our new partnership with vanduel, We've got a new

667
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 4: technology update for all you gamblers out there.

668
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 1: And it's called quick Slip. Here's how it works.

669
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 4: Let's say you've got a fandu account and you're in

670
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 4: the Action app looking for the best lines. You can

671
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 4: use quick Slip to go directly to fan Duel with

672
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,320
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673
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,120
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674
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:22,600
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675
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 3: Are you going to place a bet on one?

676
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 4: For my third and final pick and the fifth overall

677
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 4: of the week five Sunday six pack presented by fan Duel.

678
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: I'm doing it. I'm doing it. I'm going there again.

679
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 4: But the one good thing about it is we don't

680
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 4: got we don't got mitched this time. But I gotta

681
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 4: take the Steelers plus fourteen at Buffalo. This number is

682
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 4: just youumongous. Yeah, I think it should be closer to

683
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 4: twelve ish. You know, fourteen is really pushing it. This

684
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 4: could be first of all, this could be a trapp

685
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 4: game for the Buffalo Bills, big emotional win against Baltimore

686
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 4: get back on the right track after the tablet smashing

687
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 4: incident the week before. You also got Kansas City on deck,

688
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 4: so you could be looking past this Steelers game a

689
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 4: little bit buffalo.

690
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: I think also a little bit of.

691
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 4: A disadvantage, just because they're not going to have as

692
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 4: much to prep off of with Pickett, who's playing just

693
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 4: completely different than Mitch Drubisky. And that's really why I

694
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,399
Speaker 4: think you like this number here, because now even if

695
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 4: the Steelers kind of punchless again, now you have the

696
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 4: potential for a backdoor.

697
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: Pickett is going downfield.

698
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 4: His average up the target is over three yards higher

699
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 4: than true Bisky. George Pickens was targeted on over thirty

700
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 4: percent of his routes last week, which is a welcome

701
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 4: sight because the Steeler team, I mean, they have talent,

702
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 4: like if the quarterback can just deliver the ball and

703
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 4: Pickett did, I know, he threw the three picks, got

704
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: unlucky on a couple of them, but he also completed

705
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 4: every other one of his passes, so ten or thirteen

706
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 4: and you know, talented skill player. The offensive line they're

707
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 4: scheming around it enough that it hasn't been a complete

708
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 4: liability and you know, looking at this Buffalo team, they're

709
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 4: still not fully healthy. You know, this is the this

710
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 4: is that time of year where you start you start

711
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:19,959
Speaker 4: seeing these trap games. You know, these teams are gonna

712
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 4: have these they're gonna lay eggs. You know, we saw

713
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,720
Speaker 4: Buffalo against Jacksonville last year. You know, nobody saw that coming.

714
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 4: So just a spot where I just think way too

715
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 4: many points. Totally new quarterback that could You know, there's

716
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 4: a lot more upside with the Steelers offense to just

717
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 4: be competent. And that's all you need when you're betting

718
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 4: these big numbers. You know, fourteen, we see what can

719
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 4: happen week to week. Every week we're talking about some

720
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 4: some crazy comeback and some you know, oh my god,

721
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 4: can't believe it. This happened, that happened, this upset, this comeback.

722
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 4: So I'm not counting the Steelers out at all. I

723
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 4: think this is the best thing Tomin could have done.

724
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 4: And by the way, you got to Tomin spot on

725
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 4: the road. Steelers are one in three down, nobody believes

726
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 4: in them forty six, twenty four and three sixty six

727
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: percent in his career against the spread as an underdog

728
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 4: sixteen to eight against the spread as an underdog off

729
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 4: of a loss twenty three seven and one seventy seven

730
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,280
Speaker 4: percent against the spread as an underdog versus an opponent

731
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 4: with a better record, just another Steeler spot. I'm not

732
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 4: going to hesitate just because I lost a couple with

733
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 4: them going right back to it and what I think

734
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 4: could be a trap game for Buffalo.

735
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 3: I like to think that I have a pretty good

736
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 3: handle on these Tomlins spots.

737
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 5: Last week was last week, this week was this week,

738
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 5: Next week will be next week.

739
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 3: Like I've avoided a couple this year, I think I've

740
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 3: only I only played them against the big Bengals. He's

741
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 3: twenty nine as a road dog against winning teams, but

742
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 3: he got blown out in the last two last year

743
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 3: against the Bengals and the Chiefs. I've just been more

744
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 3: hesitant with this Steelers seam because they just don't they

745
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 3: haven't had competent quarterback play. I think Pickett is an

746
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 3: upgrade obviously over Mitch Bortles, and yeah, the uncertain the

747
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 3: unknown does work in the Steelers favor, and I do

748
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 3: think the situational spot matters. Bills off of two really

749
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 3: emotional games, a lot of injuries, a lot of injuries

750
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: I think is the biggest thing here. So I don't know,

751
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,760
Speaker 3: I exactly don't know who's gonna play for the Bills,

752
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 3: but that what I do think that means is the

753
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: Bills usually this that was like the first game in

754
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: like decades that the Bill's won by not like double digits.

755
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 3: So the Bills usually win with margin, and they don't

756
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 3: mind running it up. But I think even if they're

757
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: up big, there could be backdoor shots here. I don't

758
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 3: think that they want to with all the injuries they

759
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 3: have with the Chiefs on deck, that they're too concerned

760
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 3: with running this up. But I am really concerned about

761
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,720
Speaker 3: in But the Steelers have never closed as a fourteen

762
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 3: point underdog or more franchise history. I am concerned about

763
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 3: the Steelers defense. So there's no still no TJ. Watt,

764
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: which is just enormous. In twenty twenty one, they gave

765
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 3: up six point two yards per play with Wadolf the

766
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 3: field five point two when he's on the field. I

767
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 3: mean that's massive. But the injury list is really long.

768
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 3: Cam Heyward I assume will go, but he's nicked up.

769
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 3: Cam Sutton, I mean their secondary is really what I'm

770
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: worried about he Witherspoon's already out, you know, Cam Sutton

771
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 3: is banged up. And then most importantly, it's like are

772
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 3: they going to be without both safeties? Which is very scary.

773
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 3: Obviously it's the Bills, especially when your corner group is limited.

774
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 3: Mika Fitzpatrick with a knee, didn't practice today. Derell Edmonds

775
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: didn't practice today. I think he's in concussion protocol. I

776
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 3: don't know. I could have that wrong, but they're going

777
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 3: to be without their entire secondary against the Bills. Wind

778
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:51,360
Speaker 3: here I think helps neutralize some of that the Bills offense.

779
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 3: If you look at their home versus road splits, their

780
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 3: road numbers are ridiculous because they don't have to deal

781
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 3: with the Buffalo weather. But yeah, I think this is

782
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 3: the Tomlin spot. I just want to get a couple

783
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,919
Speaker 3: more guys in there for the Steelers' day.

784
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 5: Made an opportunity to get a quality dude at a

785
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,720
Speaker 5: discount like what we're talking about.

786
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 4: I believe Minka it's more just kind of like maintenance

787
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,839
Speaker 4: with him, Like he does have a he does have

788
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 4: like a knee, but it's not anything that to my knowledge,

789
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 4: is gonna keep him out it's just something that you know,

790
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 4: they're kind of you know, Wednesdays off kind of thing

791
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 4: toe to toe with these injuries on both sides.

792
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: Because it looks like mackenzie is gonna miss.

793
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 4: The crowd has already been ruled out, and it looks

794
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 4: like McKenzie's gonna miss as well.

795
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 3: Uh.

796
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 4: And then Koumero, who was a guy that filled in

797
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 4: for you know, when those guys are out, he's week

798
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 4: to week as far as we know. So it's just

799
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 4: not gonna be like, Okay, let's go up in there

800
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 4: and and try to put up forty and keep it moving.

801
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 4: Like I think it's gonna be a little bit more

802
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 4: of a struggle. You know, you don't need much in

803
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 4: these kind of games. I mean, we just saw Billy

804
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 4: Zappy against Aaron Rodgers. You know, That's that's kind of

805
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:56,439
Speaker 4: what I'm banking on here.

806
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: The Steelers won this game last year in Buffalo, No game.

807
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 1: Covered by thirteen and a half points.

808
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 5: All right.

809
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 3: For my third pick in the sixth and final overall

810
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 3: of the Week five Sunday six pack presented by Fandle,

811
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 3: I'm obviously going with the Washington Commanders plus two and

812
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 3: a half. Just like you going back to the well,

813
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 3: my nemesis has been the Titans. Okay, the first two weeks,

814
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 3: not the last two been Verabel as well as a dog,

815
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 3: and he overperformed again last week against the Colts. They

816
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: came out with a good scripted portion of the game

817
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: and then they did nothing, absolutely nothing, and they got

818
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 3: destroyed in yardage, barely hung on against the corpse of

819
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 3: Matt Ryan. But look the Titans, if you look, their

820
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 3: scripted portion has been really good, really good. Here, I'll

821
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: tell you what to do, Washington. I know you don't

822
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 3: really scout that much in the scripted portion of the game.

823
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 3: They're gonna try to throw it to Henry and Hillary.

824
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 3: That's what they're gonna do early on. They're not really

825
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 3: gonna do with the rest of the game. But they're

826
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 3: gonna have really good, well schemed plays to get them

827
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 3: the ball in space with short passes, and they've been

828
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 3: able to build leads. I think they're number one in

829
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 3: EPA per play in the first quarter, but by the way, overall,

830
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 3: the Titans are thirtieth in EPA per play On defense,

831
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 3: they are down in the dumpster with in the EPA

832
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 3: per play range with Seattle and Detroit. Their defense is terrible.

833
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 3: Their offense after the first quarter is dead last in

834
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 3: EPA per play, and now you lose Traylon Burks. So

835
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 3: this line is crazy to me. The Commanders were just

836
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 3: three point underdogs, and dal at Dallas everyone's Super Bowl

837
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 3: winner with Cooper Rush. At Dallas, they were catching three.

838
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 3: I didn't think that des theard to get blown out.

839
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 3: I just told you about all the things that won't

840
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: show up in the box scoord Now Tennessee is laying three. Now,

841
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 3: by the way, the contest this is plus two and

842
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: a half, doesn't matter. You either cover you don't. It's good.

843
00:41:57,760 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait for three. There's no sense of hitting

844
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,959
Speaker 3: it right now. I think at the same price because

845
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 3: Tennessee won two games in a row and I think

846
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 3: fraudulent fashion still one of the worst defenses in the league.

847
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,479
Speaker 3: They don't have any edge rush, which is huge here

848
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 3: because the Washington offensive line is all banged up. Carson

849
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 3: Wentz under pressure is obviously a disaster. But I'm fading

850
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 3: variable as a favorite here on the road. This is

851
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 3: usually the spot that it does work as a favorite.

852
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: He is nowhere close to as successful. I think that's

853
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 3: the perception on these two teams. And look, I think

854
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: Washington is terrible, but Washington beat Jacksonville at home week one.

855
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 3: Does everyone forget that? Everyone's like Jacksonville No, but listen, now,

856
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 3: everyone's like Jacksonville is so good, but Washington beat them.

857
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 3: The Eagles are the greatest team in the history of football. Okay,

858
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 3: they blew out they blew out Washington. Okay, you know,

859
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 3: I mean Wentz. It's been awful. By the way, I mean,

860
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna sit here and say Washington is any good.

861
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 3: Dead wash. Their EPA per play for the Washington offense

862
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 3: negative point three to eight zero. You know, there's the

863
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 3: second worst is Carolina negative point two to three to

864
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 3: one success rate? How about twenty five percent success rate?

865
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 3: Denver's second worst thirty four percent. Like pathetic offensive numbers.

866
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 3: But I think that they'll be able to move the

867
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 3: ball on this Tennessee defense enough to win this game.

868
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 3: And Tennessee just doesn't warrant this. And there's no trail

869
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 3: on Burke, So I mean, they got to score fourteen

870
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 3: points early throwing it to Henry. And by the way,

871
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 3: the Washington run defense has been elite. I was shocked

872
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 3: and I was digging into some of the numbers because

873
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 3: I was looking at the I watched the Who Dallas game,

874
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 3: and I'm like, Dallas can't run the ball. Philly couldn't

875
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 3: run the ball. They held. I think they held both.

876
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 3: It's two point two yards per carrying both both games combined.

877
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 3: So and if you look for the season, Washington run

878
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 3: defense first and success rate fourth and EPA per rush.

879
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: There's too much value here with Washington. They stink, but

880
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: this is the time to buy them. I'm back in

881
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 3: Washington here. Wait for the three. You'll see it come

882
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 3: in the app if it ever comes. If it doesn't come,

883
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 3: I'm still playing it. If I had to lock it

884
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 3: in right now, I would still bet it. And again

885
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 3: I think that they should be favored him.

886
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 4: I feel like it's kind of like you with the

887
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 4: card and you feel like Washington is the right play here.

888
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 4: But Carson Wentz Man, he just finds ways like this

889
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 4: is like the repeat of the Colts all over again.

890
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 4: Now you got your face essentially facing the Colts like

891
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 4: it's Carson Wentz from last year and a good run

892
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 4: defense like that was the Colts last year. Hopefully they

893
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 4: get it done for the sake of our six pack

894
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 4: and and your bankroll. This this would be the first

895
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 4: time in four tries that Wentz has covered against Rabel

896
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 4: with his third team.

897
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 1: Now, so we'll see what happens.

898
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 4: But like Wentz is just bad man, Like he's like

899
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:40,800
Speaker 4: ruining McLaurin. I don't know what's going on here. It's

900
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 4: I don't think you should bet on Washington ever again.

901
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 4: If you win this bet, like, just take it. It's

902
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 4: like Ben de Jets, you know, just take it walk away.

903
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 4: It's one thing to say this on a Wednesday, and

904
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 4: it's another thing. You're gonna be sitting there watching red

905
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 4: Zone and you know Hans is gonna come on and

906
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 4: like all of a sudden, you're like, oh, a quick

907
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 4: change of possession in this game, and Urson went, it's

908
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 4: just you know what I mean, it's just inexplicable turn.

909
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 3: I've got college football. You should see my college football

910
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 3: on Saturday. I'm well prepared at the UT. But a

911
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 3: team that didn't have pads, they to borrow pads.

912
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 4: So yeah, Baltimore minus three, Washington plus two and a half,

913
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 4: and the Rams minus five and a half yours and

914
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 4: then I got Philly minus five and a half the

915
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 4: Bucks minus nine, the Steelers plus fourteen. That's gonna wrap

916
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 4: it for the six pack. Let's get into the coaches

917
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 4: pep Talk?

918
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 1: Can I talk to you for a second place?

919
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 4: This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from Hall

920
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 4: of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson.

921
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 1: You gotta geticad. This is on a frank right man. Today.

922
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 4: They gotta get it. They gotta get it back on track.

923
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 4: Man in Indianapolis. I don't know what happened, but it's

924
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 4: been disaster after another with this team.

925
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 2: Wonder if I walked up me and said you're a coward,

926
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: you wouldn't like it, would you. There was a great

927
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 2: coach one time says, fatigue makes cowards of us. All

928
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 2: that's when you have fun, when you're kicking somebody's ass

929
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: and they're sucking for win.

930
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into our favorite totally. Where are

931
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 1: you going with your total?

932
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go Patriots. This is really dicey, but Patriots.

933
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: I was gonna go Jags under which I kind of like,

934
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 3: But that's that's come down a bunch. I'm gonna go

935
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 3: this Patriots lines totals come up because of Mac Jones

936
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 3: in there. So I'm fine with going under here, under

937
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:42,839
Speaker 3: forty five and a half or under forty six. Yeah,

938
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 3: I like this under here. I think you're getting some

939
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,879
Speaker 3: value here because the lines go over every game. They

940
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 3: just played a game with ninety points against the Seahawks.

941
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: But remember the Seahawks are one of the worst defenses

942
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 3: in the NFL. H Garrett Goff, you know, turns into

943
00:46:56,160 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 3: a pumpkin outdoors. Is I think he's a twenty to

944
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 3: ten indoors against the spread and whatever. He is not

945
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 3: as effective. He doesn't have the strongest arm. And this

946
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 3: offense is decimated by injuries. Uh, you know, their offensive line,

947
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 3: A number of guys aren't practicing today. Their wide receiver room.

948
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 3: Most importantly, I'm Monra. I don't think it's gonna play.

949
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:16,919
Speaker 3: Swift is most likely out.

950
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm out too. Yeah.

951
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 4: They said they they said that before last week that

952
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 4: they were almost certainly going to hold Swift out pass

953
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 4: to buy. So the concern now is that a Monra

954
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 4: could have a high ankle spring, which would sideline him,

955
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 4: you know, potentially even passed the buy, which be horrible.

956
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 4: But uh and on top of that, yeah, you had

957
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 4: seafists go down your boy you asked about him last week. Yeah,

958
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 4: he did have a role. Uh, but you had seafists

959
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 4: go down probably know a Manra and Chark.

960
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 3: Yeah.

961
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 4: So it's like, you know, now you're talking about golf

962
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 4: going on the road outdoors to a Bill Belichick Devens.

963
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 1: Oh well everyone they played.

964
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 4: In the Super Bowl. Oh yeah, that's the reason why

965
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 4: he's not even on a rams anymore. Can set They

966
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,959
Speaker 4: took one look at this dude. You know, average point

967
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 4: seven to five points per quarter against that that defense

968
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 4: with Belichicks.

969
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 3: I think that the Patriots. The Patriots come out, run

970
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: the ball the clock. They're gonna be playing really slow.

971
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 3: The Lions are dead last in rush defense. Patriots are

972
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,720
Speaker 3: the only team over fifty percent success right on rush offense.

973
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:21,239
Speaker 3: That's all they're gonna do, whether it's Bailey Zappi or

974
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 3: a hobbled Mac Jones, conservative game plan here, let's just

975
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 3: lean on our defense. So when Belichicks gets a lead,

976
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 3: he's going to just restrict them, lean on his special teams,

977
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 3: and just bleed this clock late. I know the Lions

978
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 3: never die, but there's only so much life they'll have

979
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 3: in them with this offense and all of their injuries.

980
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that there's some value here because

981
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 3: of what we've seen from the Lions lately, and now

982
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 3: you're getting a bump up because Jones is rumored to

983
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:47,919
Speaker 3: be playing. But I don't think that changes the game plan.

984
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 3: Jones hasn't been great this year, and I just don't

985
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 3: think that changes the game play. I think Patriots come

986
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 3: out here, run it, run it, run it, lean on

987
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 3: their st against its limited offense. Clock will be speeding

988
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 3: get out of Dodge with a win. I also like

989
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 3: the Patriots min is three if you ca get three or.

990
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: Uh.

991
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is way too many points for just daff

992
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 4: on the road period in this kind of game, it

993
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 4: is too many.

994
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:11,280
Speaker 1: It's too many points.

995
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 3: Yeah. But the Lions all their games three home games

996
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 3: in at Minnesota.

997
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's like very conducive to scoring points.

998
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: This one is very not uh for me.

999
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 4: I'm going back to unreliable Chicago under forty three and

1000
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 4: a half at Minnesota. Justin fields unders ten and four

1001
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 4: in his career. When the total is above forty three,

1002
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 4: perfect five and zero, it's just not a good quarterback.

1003
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 4: They're trying to hide them. They're gonna run the ball.

1004
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 4: Minnesota Minnesota hasn't exactly been been a world beater in

1005
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 4: this new O'Connell offense. You know, they put up twenty

1006
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 4: three against the Packers, they struggle against the They're the

1007
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,240
Speaker 4: only team to have like a prolonged stretch of struggling

1008
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 4: against the Lions defense all I guess aside from the

1009
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,759
Speaker 4: Commanders that half. But you know, they struggled against the

1010
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 4: Lions defense for even long at the Commanders did. And

1011
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 4: I think you could get a little sweepy version of

1012
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 4: the Vikings. And you know, they're coming back from London

1013
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,439
Speaker 4: here Minnestarto is averaging twenty one and a half points

1014
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 4: per game. They're allowing twenty, so that adds up to

1015
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 4: forty one and a half. That's under this total as is.

1016
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 4: And they've played you know better, they played Aaron Rodgers,

1017
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 4: they played the Lions defense. Yeah, Chicago, they're averaging sixteen

1018
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 4: points a game, they're allowing nineteen point three, and they're

1019
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 4: running more than any team we've seen in the modern

1020
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 4: era of football. There's a lot of ways that you

1021
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,240
Speaker 4: could get under this one. And you know there's Bears

1022
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 4: unders have generally been in the you know, thirty eight

1023
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 4: to forty range. So now we're getting like three four

1024
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 4: points just because the Viking team that's averaging twenty one

1025
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 4: and a half points per game, even though they played

1026
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,799
Speaker 4: the Lions already, I don't get it.

1027
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 3: So going yeah, I actually I actually might play the

1028
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 3: Bears here. You know, we've only seen teams come back

1029
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 3: from London to not take a buy five times in

1030
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:01,359
Speaker 3: NFL history come back from you up, and every one

1031
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 3: of those teams was either tied or trailing in the

1032
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,440
Speaker 3: fourth quarter. Two and three against the spread. Two of

1033
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 3: the three favorites lost straight up. This is a lot

1034
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 3: of points for a low scoring game, in a divisional game,

1035
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:12,239
Speaker 3: in a bad spot for this Vikings, and that I

1036
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 3: did not think handle the travel well with this young staff,

1037
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 3: and how they went to London and then how they

1038
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 3: came back. I think that's really going to hurt them

1039
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 3: this week, more so than maybe the Saints. And I

1040
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 3: think this could be a big Khalil game. The Vikings

1041
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,799
Speaker 3: run Day twenty ninth in rush success rate twenty six

1042
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 3: EPA pro rush, get fields running a little bit here too.

1043
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 3: That's all the Bears can do. I think. In north

1044
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 3: company of fancy Cole Cometez, our tight end I don't

1045
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 3: think he existed. I think I can have success running

1046
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 3: the ball here in a good spot for the Bears.

1047
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:47,320
Speaker 3: I think too many points in which would be a

1048
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 3: low scoring Anks. I agree with your under angle.

1049
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 1: How good was it for the under?

1050
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 4: Had it on the pod last week when you tune

1051
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 4: into Giants Bears and you just see three running backs

1052
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 4: in the Giants backfield and Daniel Jones wind up at

1053
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,919
Speaker 4: wide receiver every play like one of my favorite under

1054
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 4: moments of all time. All the quarterbacks go down on

1055
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 4: the Giants and the Bears didn't come into the game

1056
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:08,919
Speaker 4: with one.

1057
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 1: So I gotta just keep hammering these.

1058
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 4: Bears under the uh so yeah, Patriots, Lions under forty

1059
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,840
Speaker 4: five and a half, Bears, Vikings under forty three and

1060
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 4: a half. Just fading this NFC nors point scoring for

1061
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 4: this week, I guess is what we're doing.

1062
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 1: Yep, uh yeah.

1063
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 4: And it's crazy because I don't I don't really hate

1064
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 4: that Packers under either against the Giants. All right, now

1065
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 4: it's time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1066
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1067
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 2: Don't don't change, don't tease me.

1068
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 4: Anyone unfamiliar with teasers stuck. He has a lot of

1069
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 4: great content out He just dropped a new joint about

1070
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 4: teaser in you know, teasing throw on a key number.

1071
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 4: So be sure to check that out on Action network

1072
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 4: dot com or just go.

1073
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:08,800
Speaker 1: Search for it. But where are you going for.

1074
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 3: A week five? Yeah, I'm gonna go.

1075
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 6: You know, always want to tease through three and seven

1076
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 6: with a lower total when possible, and so I'm gonna

1077
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:21,800
Speaker 6: do that with the Bucks. He's the bucks down, I am.

1078
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 3: Although that totals forty eight a little on the higher side.

1079
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 3: Chop around you can find that eight and a half.

1080
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 3: I that one recently, try to find get that below three. Also,

1081
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna tease the Browns up really the low total

1082
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:36,360
Speaker 3: here at home from plus two and a half to

1083
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 3: plus eight and ever plus three to plus nine, whatever

1084
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 3: it is you can get. I think that from what

1085
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 3: I can gather and some intel that I get, Clowney

1086
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 3: and Garrett will play, which is massive for the Browns

1087
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 3: defense against a beat up Chargers offensive line. This game

1088
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 3: is in weather, It's gonna be win outdoors running game.

1089
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 3: Deeps run defense doesn't be good, but their defensive line

1090
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 3: has been banged up. But the Chargers can't run the

1091
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 3: ball and I think that's what this comes down to,

1092
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,840
Speaker 3: is that the Browns are the best rush offense in

1093
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:12,279
Speaker 3: the NFL. Chargers have been one of the worst. Don't

1094
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 3: make plays. I think the Chargers probably end up sneaking

1095
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 3: this out maybe, but this is gonna be a close game.

1096
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 3: I'm glad they take over eight with a low total here,

1097
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 3: we're a total of forty eight or below, and I

1098
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 3: think this total will come down Bucks and Browns. This

1099
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 3: I would be waiting for this three with the Browns

1100
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 3: if I was confident that Clowny and Garrett were full go,

1101
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 3: because I think with the charge, you know, valt Allen

1102
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 3: with with their inability to run the ball, with this

1103
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 3: win and then their offensive line issues. Now that Browns

1104
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:48,760
Speaker 3: defense goes as Garrett and somewhat Clowny go without them,

1105
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 3: it is you can run on them and they're just

1106
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 3: not getting as much pressure and the secondary has been disappointing.

1107
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 3: So I think that they're gonna play and have an impact.

1108
00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 3: But that's why I kind of want those points in

1109
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 3: my pocket. So I'm not just not sure, but they're

1110
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 3: full go yet.

1111
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're there.

1112
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,279
Speaker 4: They haven't been good defending backs out of the backfield,

1113
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 4: which is crucial when you're because you talk about stopping

1114
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,239
Speaker 4: a run. If that doesn't work, if the Chargers, you're

1115
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 4: just gonna you feed the ball to Echo in short passes.

1116
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean I already I put this in

1117
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 4: the Apple ready, so I'll just go to But yeah,

1118
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 4: I'm teasing the Bucks down as well. You should be

1119
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 4: able to still find an eight and a half at

1120
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:26,280
Speaker 4: certain spots, but uh, teasing the Bucks down. Already talked

1121
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 4: about them. I just think it's a smash spot for them. Uh,

1122
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:31,760
Speaker 4: it's a big rebound spot for Brady.

1123
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: It's a big went.

1124
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 4: Down spot for the Falcons coming off two wins for

1125
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 4: covers and losing one of their best offensive players. And

1126
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 4: then I'm gonna combine them with the Niners down from

1127
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:44,839
Speaker 4: six and a half to a half, and I'm just

1128
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 4: I don't want to I've missed.

1129
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 3: You know.

1130
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:50,239
Speaker 4: I think the number open like four or something like that,

1131
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,400
Speaker 4: and Sharps just hammered it, and you know, now it's

1132
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 4: up at six and a half and I really don't

1133
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 4: want to weigh six and a half with Jimmy g

1134
00:55:56,080 --> 00:56:00,040
Speaker 4: on the road. But am comfortable teasing it down. I

1135
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,359
Speaker 4: I'm just trying to fade this Panthers team anyway, I can.

1136
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 4: You know, Baker Mayfield is just has just been a

1137
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:09,799
Speaker 4: disaster with this team. And you know it's not all

1138
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 4: on him. The offensive line hasn't been good. The coaching

1139
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:14,880
Speaker 4: is not good. I mean, they hired Ben mcadu to

1140
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 4: coordinate their offense. You know, surprise, surprise what the results

1141
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 4: are going to be. But he's not helping. You know,

1142
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 4: he's got low awareness, he's inaccurate. Now you're going up

1143
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:30,200
Speaker 4: against a San Francisco team that's number one in DVOA

1144
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 4: on defense, number one in points allowed.

1145
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: And Carolina is the only team in the league with the.

1146
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 4: Worst offensive drive success rate than the Chicago Bears. Drive

1147
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,359
Speaker 4: success rate not only is how many times you score

1148
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 4: on the drive, but just how often are you converting

1149
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:45,880
Speaker 4: first downs.

1150
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 1: You know, it's a per series metric.

1151
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 4: Essentially, Chicago is thirty first, Carolina is somehow thirty second.

1152
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,080
Speaker 4: And you're going up against the top defense in the league.

1153
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 4: And I know by now everyone saw the statistic Carolina

1154
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 4: one in twenty six straight up under Matt rule when

1155
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 4: an opponent scored seventeen or more. Well, I went and

1156
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,799
Speaker 4: looked Jimmy Garoppolo eighteen and seven on the road are

1157
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 4: the Niners. In his starts, they've scored seventeen plus eighty

1158
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 4: five percent of the time. So I think, I just

1159
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 4: think there's a good odds teasing him down. Never feel comfortable,

1160
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 4: you know, laying the six and a half on the

1161
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 4: road with this kind of Niners team offense doesn't really

1162
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 4: have a big.

1163
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 1: Margin for error.

1164
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 4: You know, there's a lot of throws to the middle,

1165
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:32,440
Speaker 4: turnovers could happen. But I just I need to find

1166
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 4: ways to fade this Carolina offense home road wherever don't care.

1167
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 4: It's very bad.

1168
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tough spot off of a divisional game

1169
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 3: on Monday night, short week coming across the country. I

1170
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 3: think historically teams in that exact space the next spot

1171
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 3: of the past twenties or three and ten against the spread.

1172
00:57:50,880 --> 00:57:54,440
Speaker 3: But the Panthers right now are so in nept can argue.

1173
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 4: All right, So yeah, stuck has Cleveland up to eight

1174
00:57:57,960 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 4: and a half, Tampa Bay down to two and a half,

1175
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 4: and I have the Niners down to a half point

1176
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 4: in Tampa Bay down to two and a half.

1177
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: Now is get into our money line underdog.

1178
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 3: Parley turning good weekends into great weekends, it's time for

1179
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 3: the money line parlay.

1180
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 4: I think it was the first week where neither of

1181
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 4: us hit, so we got to get back on track.

1182
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 4: I think it was something like I think are like

1183
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:29,040
Speaker 4: fifty to fifty going backway the last two years though

1184
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 4: we've been we've been pretty odd with these, and that's

1185
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:31,280
Speaker 4: what you do.

1186
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:33,840
Speaker 1: You don't even need to hit hit fifty per because

1187
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 1: there's money like dogs.

1188
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 4: So I know these are like a listener favorite, and

1189
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 4: so we'll try to keep them coming.

1190
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 1: Who got this week?

1191
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Jets at home on

1192
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 3: the money line against the Dolphins. I don't really love

1193
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 3: many dogs this week, but this one screams high variants

1194
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:56,439
Speaker 3: to me. You have Zach Wilson in their quarterback, He's

1195
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 3: gonna be you know, he's kind of more high, more

1196
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 3: high variance, which is what I four in these money

1197
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 3: on underdogs, and this game screenside parans. We have Teddy

1198
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:08,680
Speaker 3: Bridgewater in there. We'll the Dolphins have a ton of

1199
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 3: injuries and that this is gonna be such a fascinating

1200
00:59:11,600 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 3: matchup when the Jets have the ball. Dolphins run defense

1201
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 3: and spectacular. Don't expect the Jets to give anything on

1202
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 3: the ground. So this is gonna come down to, is

1203
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:21,919
Speaker 3: the Jets were down to like their six and seven

1204
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:24,480
Speaker 3: string tackles. I think at this point they literally have

1205
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 3: I think four off four offensive tackles which started now

1206
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 3: in I are They're gonna be going against the blitzing

1207
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 3: Dolphins without their starting corners, and the Dolphins pass defense

1208
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:37,480
Speaker 3: has been horrendous because they don't have Zevian Howard, who

1209
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna go. Jones is still on.

1210
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 3: I are there injuries like all over the secondary, So

1211
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:46,440
Speaker 3: it's gonna be like Ken Zach Wilson and launch it downfield.

1212
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 3: It's just gonna be Wilson against the blitz against the

1213
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 3: bad secondary with some talented receivers. It's either gonna go.

1214
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 3: There's gonna be pick sixes or there's gonna be long touchdowns,

1215
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:59,640
Speaker 3: high variants against the backup quarterback of the division game. Yeah,

1216
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 3: it's that's set the Jets in there.

1217
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 1: I like it. I thought about them as well. You

1218
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 1: may have good plunt with the Bears.

1219
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 4: I think that's an intriguing one as well, But I'm

1220
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 4: gonna stick with my original and I'm gonna go with

1221
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 4: Seattle plus one ninety four at New Orleans.

1222
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 1: I do wonder a little bit about the preparation for

1223
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:18,479
Speaker 1: New Orleans.

1224
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 4: I know you have pointed out how they have handled

1225
01:00:22,080 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 4: it better than Minnesota, but you're still coming back from London.

1226
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 4: You're still kind of like nothing's really going on at

1227
01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:29,439
Speaker 4: practice because all your guys are out. I mean there's

1228
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 4: no Winston, no Michael Thomas. You know, Winston probably maybe

1229
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:35,439
Speaker 4: he's gonna miss another week if if he doesn't, he's

1230
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 4: not gonna have a full week of practice, not with

1231
01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 4: his receivers who are kind of still new because everyone

1232
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 4: was missing time all preseason two. So you know, whether

1233
01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 4: it's Winston or Andy Dalton, we just need some turnover help.

1234
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 4: You know, this Seattle defense, you're gonna be able to

1235
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:51,440
Speaker 4: move the ball on him. But you know, Gino is

1236
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:55,560
Speaker 4: playing well. Seattle does have some good receivers they could get.

1237
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 4: You know, they could kind of hang around here if

1238
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 4: they just get a bounce or two. And you know Jamis,

1239
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 4: if he goes, he's only started one game as a

1240
01:01:04,000 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 4: home favorite for the Saints. We always talk about you

1241
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 4: want to fade him when he's a favorite and back

1242
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:10,520
Speaker 4: of them when he's a dog. He was a minus

1243
01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:14,080
Speaker 4: three twenty one on the money line against the Giants,

1244
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:18,760
Speaker 4: lost the game, and then Dalton is four and seven

1245
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 4: as a faith straight up as a favorite over the last.

1246
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:27,440
Speaker 1: Three seasons, So this is no short thing.

1247
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:30,439
Speaker 4: You have a team coming back from an overseas trip

1248
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 4: that's been sloppy. I mean, the fact that they were

1249
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 4: able to go down what was it like twenty nothing

1250
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:38,479
Speaker 4: against the Panthers a couple of weeks ago. Like this team,

1251
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 4: I just think you're gonna get some slopping against the

1252
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:42,640
Speaker 4: Falcons too. I mean, they didn't show up for the

1253
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 4: first three quarters, So maybe maybe he kind of take

1254
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 4: some first half money line as well to kind of

1255
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:50,880
Speaker 4: hedge here. But I do think New Orleans is gonna

1256
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 4: be prone to a little more sloppiness than we're used to,

1257
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 4: you know, without Sean Payton here at the Helm, and

1258
01:01:56,200 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 4: they're kind of you know the practice, you know, practicing,

1259
01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 4: you know, with different quarterbacks and whatnot. So yeah, give

1260
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 4: me the Seahawks plus on ninety four Parlato's you get

1261
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 4: about six x litle over six x one hundred gets

1262
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 4: you just over seven hundred. So Jets plus one forty

1263
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,600
Speaker 4: two Seahawks plus one ninety four is our money line

1264
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 4: underdog parlay for week number five. Now let's move on

1265
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:22,479
Speaker 4: to the segment that we're going to rename. We're gonna

1266
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 4: call this meaningful to some because you know, we used

1267
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 4: to call it best of the Rest. They're the games

1268
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 4: that we haven't covered in any other segment. But shout

1269
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 4: out to my boy al Michael's always dropping again wing

1270
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 4: references on there.

1271
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 1: They are still, as he likes to say, meaningful to.

1272
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 5: So that's gonna be a touchdown. But that may be

1273
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 5: meaningful to some.

1274
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:46,760
Speaker 1: Of you, and you know what I mean.

1275
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 4: So we just got one game because we're gonna talk

1276
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,439
Speaker 4: about the final game in our Survivor segment to close

1277
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:51,800
Speaker 4: it out.

1278
01:02:51,840 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 1: But Giants at Packers.

1279
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 4: I I'm almost surprised you didn't take the Giants in

1280
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 4: the six pack. I feel like that would have kind

1281
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 4: of been on brand for you.

1282
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:02,840
Speaker 1: But what are your.

1283
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 4: Thoughts on this game? Giants in London? I still don't

1284
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:07,880
Speaker 4: know if we know who's playing quarterback for the Giants.

1285
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 4: I think Jones is pushing a play Terrors of the

1286
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 4: Protocol Rogers coming off in against the spread loss which

1287
01:03:16,880 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 4: he failed to cover last week.

1288
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 1: Good great call by you.

1289
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, So Rogers coming off a loss against the spread

1290
01:03:23,680 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 4: the next week, he is forty eight, twenty four and

1291
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 4: one sixty seven percent against the spread. So for anyone

1292
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 4: that likes trends, this is rod Query support. Rodgers and

1293
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 4: London favorites since two thousand and nine, nineteen and ten

1294
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:43,080
Speaker 4: against the spread sixty six percent. Although the Vikings did

1295
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 4: not cover in this spot last.

1296
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 1: Week, what do you think?

1297
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:48,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking at the giants here, but I gotta

1298
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 3: get more informational on who's going to play. Janiel Jones. Look,

1299
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 3: he was moving around okay. I thought he was definitely

1300
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 3: gonna be out this week. But he was moving around

1301
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 3: okay today, so I think he's gonna play. They didn't

1302
01:03:56,640 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 3: sign another quarterback of the guys they brought in, which

1303
01:03:59,360 --> 01:04:02,240
Speaker 3: is a pretty good but I also want to see

1304
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 3: who's going to be available for them from a pass

1305
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:07,840
Speaker 3: catching perspective. Yeah, I mean.

1306
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 4: They both practice, so it's a good sign that they're

1307
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:15,160
Speaker 4: practicing Wednesday.

1308
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:17,760
Speaker 1: That would we need to believe that they're tentative? We

1309
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 1: do back?

1310
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 4: Uh no, No, Like now it's dable so you might

1311
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:22,160
Speaker 4: play them for two snaps.

1312
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:24,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can predict it, so.

1313
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:26,440
Speaker 3: You know, And also I want to see who's available

1314
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 3: for the Packers, like they have some line injuries, but

1315
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:32,280
Speaker 3: on the secondary, like Alexander roin injury. Packers very conservative

1316
01:04:32,280 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 3: with their UH and they have a buy next week,

1317
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 3: so Jyr Alexander dealing with a groin, you know, amos

1318
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 3: and concussion protocol. They're starting safety, so they have there's

1319
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertain here. Packers' offense is not the

1320
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 3: same right now. They are not throwing it the ball downfield.

1321
01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:48,680
Speaker 3: They are relying on the run way too much neutral

1322
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 3: situations because it's just not Their offensive line has been great.

1323
01:04:52,480 --> 01:04:55,040
Speaker 3: What's been And by the way, Daniel Jones ten and

1324
01:04:55,080 --> 01:04:56,840
Speaker 3: zer against the spread as a dog away from home

1325
01:04:57,000 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 3: of under nine points, he just finds a way to

1326
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 3: keep these game close. And I think him and Saquon

1327
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:05,840
Speaker 3: can do that against this run dy this Packer's rund.

1328
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 3: I mean they're dead last in lineyards on the defensive line.

1329
01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:11,440
Speaker 3: The Packers the thirty first in rush success rate. We

1330
01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 3: saw the Patriots with backup quarterbacks and limited weapons, control

1331
01:05:16,720 --> 01:05:18,760
Speaker 3: the clock. It's a dog. That was one of the

1332
01:05:18,760 --> 01:05:21,800
Speaker 3: reasons I bet the Patriots last week. And the Giants offense,

1333
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 3: their rush offense seventh Dboa so far this year blocking

1334
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 3: better and run in run schemes, Barkley's been great. You

1335
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:33,760
Speaker 3: also the legs of Jones. I'll be looking at the

1336
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:35,480
Speaker 3: Giants here. I don't think this line will ever go

1337
01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 3: under seven. It could go over ten if like Jones

1338
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 3: gets ruled out and then you have Davis Web, then

1339
01:05:41,200 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 3: the line will go over ten. But I think it'll

1340
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:46,160
Speaker 3: probably hang in this dead range. So I'll wait to

1341
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 3: see some more statuses, but I'm leaning Giants here in

1342
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:51,919
Speaker 3: the back of their run game. And by the way,

1343
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 3: underdogs and games with an over under below forty two,

1344
01:05:56,240 --> 01:06:00,800
Speaker 3: so totals forty two or below, and this is right

1345
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:02,440
Speaker 3: around there. I don't know where it's going to up closing,

1346
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:06,000
Speaker 3: but under I was obviously more valuable in those games

1347
01:06:07,040 --> 01:06:11,160
Speaker 3: ninety five, sixty and four against the spread since twenty eighteen.

1348
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's definitely tempting against his Packers' offense, it's

1349
01:06:16,360 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 3: still trying to find itself. With a bad run day

1350
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 3: in a low scoring game, it's pretty tempting to want

1351
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:25,200
Speaker 3: to take the eight points with a quarterback will always

1352
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 3: just you know, they'll lose by three somehow.

1353
01:06:27,880 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 4: I think there's been you know, like you said some

1354
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 4: positive news regarding Jones, because the line is down to

1355
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:36,440
Speaker 4: seven and a half at FANDUL. The total also down

1356
01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 4: to forty and a half, so everything's just kind of

1357
01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:39,720
Speaker 4: going down.

1358
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 1: But I would say this, if you do bet on the.

1359
01:06:43,200 --> 01:06:46,880
Speaker 4: Giants because Daniel Jones is playing, you want to be

1360
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 4: sure that he's going to be able to actually use

1361
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 4: his mobility, because he had he wanted to get back

1362
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:54,160
Speaker 4: in the game last week and they had it eventually,

1363
01:06:54,160 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 4: they had to do it as a decoy just because

1364
01:06:56,080 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 4: you know.

1365
01:06:56,240 --> 01:06:57,080
Speaker 1: They had no quarterback.

1366
01:06:57,120 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 4: But there was a game, I believe it was not

1367
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 4: last season, but the year before where he had hurt

1368
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 4: an ankle and then he came back, but he was

1369
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:07,960
Speaker 4: just like he wasn't his usual self and he was

1370
01:07:08,000 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 4: just like a sitting duck in the pocket and it

1371
01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 4: was a disaster and then he got hurt again on

1372
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:13,920
Speaker 4: top of them all that. So you do want to

1373
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 4: be short that he's like actually good and not just

1374
01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:18,479
Speaker 4: like I'm you know, I don't want to lose my job.

1375
01:07:18,840 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 4: It's my contract year, you know. Good Like, So that's

1376
01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:22,880
Speaker 4: what I'll say about that.

1377
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:25,240
Speaker 3: My friend who's close to the Giant says he's fine.

1378
01:07:25,320 --> 01:07:28,160
Speaker 3: Mobility wise, and this line is coming down, so I

1379
01:07:28,440 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 3: stay corrected, maybe it'll come that more. I'm going to

1380
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 3: bet it smaller right now myself plus eight.

1381
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 1: There you go. All right, let's finish off with our

1382
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:38,720
Speaker 1: Survivor pick of the.

1383
01:07:38,720 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 3: Week, the Survivorpool pick of the week.

1384
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:52,959
Speaker 4: All right, man, we both survived through four weeks, which

1385
01:07:53,000 --> 01:07:56,160
Speaker 4: is something. I mean, the way it's been, it's been

1386
01:07:56,200 --> 01:07:58,800
Speaker 4: Carner's this year for a lot of people that I've

1387
01:07:58,880 --> 01:08:01,320
Speaker 4: talked to in different and even a lot of the

1388
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:05,840
Speaker 4: pools I'm in, it's already down to like not many people.

1389
01:08:06,280 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 4: You know, this is a week I think there's definitely

1390
01:08:08,400 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 4: some options. It's not as bare as some of the

1391
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:11,800
Speaker 4: last week.

1392
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:13,000
Speaker 1: I think it was a little bit tougher.

1393
01:08:13,520 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 4: Uh No, in Week three was tough when you didn't

1394
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:19,200
Speaker 4: know what was going on to Chargers and thankfully avoided

1395
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:20,800
Speaker 4: the land mine just staying away from them anyway.

1396
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 1: But where you going with your survivor for this week?

1397
01:08:26,360 --> 01:08:30,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars at home

1398
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:35,760
Speaker 3: bounce back spot here against the Houston Texans, who are

1399
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,720
Speaker 3: the worst team in the league. They can't really throw

1400
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:42,200
Speaker 3: the ball with Davis Mills, and I am a huge

1401
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:46,880
Speaker 3: believer in the Jags run defense under Mike Caldwell. In

1402
01:08:46,920 --> 01:08:50,160
Speaker 3: this Bolls esque scheme, Jaguars defense across the board is

1403
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:54,639
Speaker 3: just grades has been grading out very well. And yeah,

1404
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 3: I think Trevor Lawrence will have enough time. I think

1405
01:08:58,200 --> 01:09:01,720
Speaker 3: it's him and Jalen Hurts or number one and two

1406
01:09:02,120 --> 01:09:04,920
Speaker 3: with a clean pocket, and he should have enough clean

1407
01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:09,920
Speaker 3: pockets here to take advantage of a Houston defense that

1408
01:09:10,520 --> 01:09:13,720
Speaker 3: has played better than I thought, but is gettable. I

1409
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:16,800
Speaker 3: think JAG's big coaching this match here to Jagg's pretty

1410
01:09:16,840 --> 01:09:20,200
Speaker 3: safe here at home, and most portantly from a survivor

1411
01:09:20,280 --> 01:09:23,280
Speaker 3: whole perspective, I don't think that there's many other opportunities

1412
01:09:23,280 --> 01:09:26,760
Speaker 3: the rest of this year that I'll feel very comfortable

1413
01:09:26,840 --> 01:09:29,479
Speaker 3: using them as opposed to the Bills, who are going

1414
01:09:29,520 --> 01:09:32,040
Speaker 3: to be used by a lot of people. And I

1415
01:09:32,479 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 3: don't want to get in front of that Tomlin voodoo

1416
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:36,559
Speaker 3: and the Tomlin spot. But we'll use the Bills again

1417
01:09:37,000 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 3: this year.

1418
01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 4: You know, I could see using the Jags. I you know,

1419
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:43,799
Speaker 4: as you can tell, I'm pretty down on the Panthers,

1420
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:46,719
Speaker 4: so I'm going Niners here. I cannot find another spot

1421
01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:49,000
Speaker 4: that I would use the Niners this year. I mean,

1422
01:09:49,320 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 4: the way Survivor's been going this year, you know, I'm

1423
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:53,479
Speaker 4: not trying to hold onto the forty nine ers a

1424
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 4: week six.

1425
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 1: I mean they might be down to their thirstreing quarterback

1426
01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:55,960
Speaker 1: by then.

1427
01:09:56,479 --> 01:09:59,080
Speaker 4: So you know, right now, you got Kittle in there,

1428
01:09:59,360 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 4: you got Deebo playing like Deebo, Jimmy g you know,

1429
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:05,240
Speaker 4: I think I think they could do enough again. Again,

1430
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 4: this is just the top defense in the league versus

1431
01:10:09,680 --> 01:10:15,360
Speaker 4: a bottom two offense. Arguably maybe bottom three if you

1432
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:17,840
Speaker 4: want to say the Texans or somebody like that. But

1433
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:21,040
Speaker 4: I mean, this offense by the Numbers has essentially been

1434
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:22,560
Speaker 4: neck and neck, just as bad as the Bears. But

1435
01:10:22,600 --> 01:10:24,760
Speaker 4: it's if the Bears aren't passing, like the Panthers are

1436
01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:28,040
Speaker 4: actively trying to throw the football with the quarterback that

1437
01:10:28,080 --> 01:10:31,880
Speaker 4: they signed to be their franchise quarterback is not working again,

1438
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:34,800
Speaker 4: Matt Rule one to twenty six. When the opponent score

1439
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 4: seventeen or more, and the Niners do that with Jimmy

1440
01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:39,880
Speaker 4: on the road eighty five percent of the time, Mike

1441
01:10:39,920 --> 01:10:42,840
Speaker 4: poh and te sometimes might give us a sweat because

1442
01:10:42,840 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 4: I can see the Niners having a couple of turnovers

1443
01:10:45,120 --> 01:10:47,280
Speaker 4: like you mentioned coming off the short week. Also, I

1444
01:10:47,320 --> 01:10:50,080
Speaker 4: feel like it's like a pot like Action Network podcast

1445
01:10:50,080 --> 01:10:52,840
Speaker 4: special for us to hammer the Falcons is like double

1446
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:56,160
Speaker 4: digit dogs against the Niners and like a you know,

1447
01:10:56,200 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 4: like a traps like that the Falcons will get blown

1448
01:10:58,000 --> 01:11:00,160
Speaker 4: out this weekue the Niners will like shut out out

1449
01:11:00,200 --> 01:11:02,160
Speaker 4: the Panthers and everyone's like, oh yeah, it's like.

1450
01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:04,360
Speaker 3: Then we'll get seven and a half.

1451
01:11:05,240 --> 01:11:05,800
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1452
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:08,800
Speaker 4: But so I could actually see myself on the Falcons

1453
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:11,200
Speaker 4: as crazy as the challenge if things break right.

1454
01:11:11,360 --> 01:11:13,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'm probably gonna use the Rams next week

1455
01:11:13,439 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 3: as a spoiler at home against the Panthers.

1456
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:18,240
Speaker 1: There you go, Yeah, No, this Panther team is.

1457
01:11:18,280 --> 01:11:20,639
Speaker 4: It's tough to watch out there in Fa the Panthers.

1458
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:23,240
Speaker 4: Hopefully it doesn't bite me because this has been quite

1459
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:27,720
Speaker 4: a tough year with Survivor. But Jaguars Niners, I hope

1460
01:11:27,760 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 4: you guys have not used one of those, so you

1461
01:11:30,080 --> 01:11:33,920
Speaker 4: can keep on keeping on. And as a reminder, we

1462
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 4: got four weekly episodes of the Action Network podcast dropping

1463
01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:37,760
Speaker 4: all season long.

1464
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 1: I'll be sure to check it out. Got a lot

1465
01:11:39,280 --> 01:11:42,360
Speaker 1: of good stuff on the channel. That's gonna wrap it

1466
01:11:42,400 --> 01:11:44,680
Speaker 1: for us until next time. Let's get this.

1467
01:11:44,960 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 4: Money is headed to the slammer and it will not

1468
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:04,320
Speaker 4: be a good night