1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 2 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg David Gura. The Wise Men are Dione 6 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 1: or Instein, a man, and they've written a jewel for Republicans, 7 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: Democrats and anyone worried about the path of this nation 8 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: for it. Let's begin, David, the discussion with the current news. 9 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,599 Speaker 1: I want to talk to e J about, uh, some 10 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: of the platoons that we have here in a little 11 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: bit on the co author of one nation after Trump, 12 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: a god for the perplexed, the disillusioned, the desperate, and 13 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: the not yet deported. EJ. Great, this with you once again. Uh. 14 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: Let me start by asking about you, Thank you, thank you. 15 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: Let me start by asking you about Senator Bob Corker 16 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: announcing yesterday he's not going to seek another term in office. 17 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: It strikes me from watching this and from my time 18 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: and watch the d C, that nothing brings about by 19 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: partisanship or bipartisan sentiment more than the retirement of a colleague, 20 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,639 Speaker 1: be he on the same side of the aisle or another. 21 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: We certainly saw that yesterday, the outpouring of support and 22 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: praise for the outgoing senator from from Tennessee. What's the 23 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: status of do you see green shoots of any bipartisanship 24 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill today? Yeah? I think all politicians should 25 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: announce their retirement, tape all of the tributes, uh say 26 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: they've changed their mind, and use those tributes in their 27 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: reelection campaign. I mean, it's really studying the way that uh, 28 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: the way that happens. At the moment, it's very hard 29 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: to see any green shoots of bipartisanship. You just saw 30 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: this healthcare bill go down, as in my view it 31 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: should have um because there was no Democratic support for 32 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: repealing Obamacare. They to actually have side by side with that, 33 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: a negotiation between Lamar Alexander Republican and Patti Maria Democrat 34 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: on finding ways to fix some of the problems in 35 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: Obamacare that could actually get bipartisan support. But the leadership, 36 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,679 Speaker 1: the Republican leadership killed that because they wanted to get 37 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: their Obamacare bill. We'll see what happens with that. You've 38 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: been talking about tax reform. I mean, if this tax 39 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: reform is focused primarily on cutting the top right for 40 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 1: the wealthy, UM, it's not going to get a lot 41 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: of bi partisans support. UM. And you know, corporate tax 42 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: reform would be quite popular if it were about making 43 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: the corporate tax more efficient. There are companies that pay 44 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,519 Speaker 1: near zero others near the top rate. That doesn't seem 45 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: to make sense. UM. But it looks like it may 46 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: again just be a great big cut. And so I 47 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: don't see a lot of openings there right now. In 48 00:02:54,960 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: this primary result down in Alabama, UM, where roy Or 49 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: beat the candidate of both Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump. 50 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: Although Donald Trump is trying to pretend he didn't really 51 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: do what he did, UM is only going to tell 52 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: Republicans the farther right you go, the better. I'm glad 53 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: that you bring that up, because you and Norm Mornstein 54 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,399 Speaker 1: and uh and uh and uh and uh. Thomas Mann 55 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: focus here on on this new brand of populism that 56 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is a spoused Donald Trump who owns a 57 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: skyscraper just around the corner from here. Was down in 58 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: Alabama over these last couple of weeks, fulminating in favor 59 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: of the gentleman who lost. Last night, talk a bit 60 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: about this how successfully, how how how Canada Trump was 61 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: able to endear himself and become uh, someone who who 62 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: folks in Alabama, folks in many parts of the country 63 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: outside of New York City were keen to support. Yeah. 64 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, let's uh. I always think 65 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: it is important to point out that Trump lost the 66 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: popular vote by two point nine million. Um. That's not 67 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: sour grapes. That's just to say, if you're gonna say 68 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: where the country is, you gotta look at that popular vote. 69 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: And when you look at Alabama, this is a state 70 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: that if Democrats ever actually won Alabama in the presidential election, 71 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: they're probably winning Mississippi and every other state in the Union. 72 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 1: This is a very very conservative state. But I think Trump, 73 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: on the one hand, clearly appealed to feelings around race. 74 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: You saw that again with his attack on the NFL 75 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: players and immigration. But it was in a context of 76 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: economic troubles in a lot of parts of the country. 77 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: I think one of the biggest problems we face is 78 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: a great disconnect between the economies of the metro areas 79 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: and the economy is smaller industrial places like my hometown 80 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: of Fall River, Massachusetts, places like Erie, Petsylvania, and we 81 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 1: got to deal with that as a country. That's where 82 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: I wanted to go to Full River and Portsmouth Abbey. 83 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: There's no e. J. D. Book unless you speak of 84 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 1: not only the Roman Catholic face, but religion in America. 85 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: You talk about I know you intern for Edmund Burke 86 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: a few years ago. Uh, the little polloon we we 87 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: belong to in society. How do the Democrats win by 88 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: bringing religion into their debate? Some Republicans seem to have 89 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: done better with this. Uh recently do the Democrats need 90 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: to adjust towards the religion you've made a career writing of. Well, 91 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: you know, one of the things in the campaign that 92 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: I think Hillary Clinton could have done more of is 93 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 1: talking about her Methodist faith and how important that was 94 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,239 Speaker 1: to the way she thinks about politics. I think most 95 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: people don't have any idea of how important that is 96 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: to her, and I think that sends a signal to 97 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: a lot of people who aren't necessarily or you know, 98 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: automatic Democratic voters, um that this is a more complicated 99 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: person who reflects on these matters. We have a lot 100 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: to say on that, and you know, and you do 101 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: have right now. Um, some religious movements that really look 102 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: like the old civil rights Christianity, people like the Reverend 103 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 1: Bill Barbera down in North Carolina who are linking religious 104 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: values to fights uh for justice. UM. And you know, 105 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: I think the key thing is just not for liberals 106 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: and Democrats not to look bigoted against religious people. UM. 107 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: And most of them aren't, but there's there are sometimes 108 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 1: signals that they send that I think are harmful to 109 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: the cause of liberalism and the Democratic Party. And when 110 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: you got pub Francis, liberals have a lot to talk about. 111 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: E j. Great, great to speak with you as always, 112 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: thank you very much for the time here on radio 113 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: and television as well. That's e j dng, co author 114 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: of One Nation After Trump, co author with Norman Weerinstein 115 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: of A. E. I. Thomas Man of the Brooklyns Institution 116 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: as well. And what resonates with me is I've begun 117 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: to dive into Hillary Clinton's autobiography Tom and she does 118 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: write about religion in a way she didn't seem to 119 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: feel comfortable talking about on the campaign trails. An interesting 120 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: point there from e j D. And also for the 121 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: Brookens Institution Georgetown University as well Blombery Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio, 122 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: David Gara and Tom Keene here in New York coast 123 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: to coast and worldwide. This is Bloomberg David. This was 124 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: an important interview yesterday. This is the most important interview 125 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: of the day after what we witnessed yesterday. Yeah, absolutely 126 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: very pleased to welcome programming. Senator Pat to me someone 127 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: you associated very closely with fiscal conservatism for a long time. 128 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: They had a Club for Growth, of course, represented the 129 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: Lehigh Valley, Allentown, Bethlehem in the like in Congress Pennsylvania's 130 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: fifteenth Congressional district for many years. Now the junior Senator 131 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: from Pennsylvania joins us now on our phone lines. So 132 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: much to talk about with you, Senator. Let me start 133 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: with tax reform. Gary Cohen, the President's economic advisor, has 134 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: described to Bloomberg what this plan is going to be like. 135 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: He said, it's going to be a skeleton and it's 136 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: gonna be up to the White House and Congress to 137 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: add flesh to that. You're gonna get this outline today. 138 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: What are you looking for and help us understand what 139 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: the process is going to be like when you get 140 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: the broad strokes of this plan. Sure, well, Uh, first, 141 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 1: thanks for having me guys. Um, there will be there 142 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: will be no surprises for those of us who are 143 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: members of the Senate Finance Committee. Because we've been meeting 144 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: with and consulting with the Treasury Secretary Gary Cone, the 145 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: leaders of the House Tax Writing Committee, and the elected 146 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: leadership there for many months now. Tremendous progress has been done. Um. 147 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: What I'm looking for is a pro growth, supply side 148 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: tax reform that is going to create incentence to expand 149 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: American production, give us the kind of acceleration and economic 150 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,079 Speaker 1: growth we've been waiting for. And I'm I'm I'm really 151 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 1: quite optimistic. I think we've got a really good shot 152 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: at getting this done. And it will certainly include lower 153 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:52,239 Speaker 1: taxes for middle class families, working class families. It will 154 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: um eliminate, I hope, is the just a massive disadvantage 155 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: that American business has with respect to foreign competitors. Um, 156 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: so I'm excited about it. Will will start discussing the details, 157 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,559 Speaker 1: and then the committees of jurisdiction that's the Finance Committee 158 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 1: in the Senate, the ways that means committee in the 159 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: House will begin actually writing the legislative language and making 160 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: the detailed decisions that have to be fleshed out. Senator 161 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: to me, let me ask you what you've learned from 162 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: the debate, the debates over healthcare over these last few months. 163 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: The President tweeting, as we mentioned just a few moments ago, 164 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: he does not think that healthcare is dead. You're not 165 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: going to get it through on reconciliation, but there's still 166 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: going to be an effort to get changes to healthcare made. 167 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: How eager are you to move on from this? You've 168 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 1: had votes, you've had votes pulled. Is it time to 169 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: move on from healthcare to focus on tax reform exclusively? Well, 170 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 1: it is time to make tax reform the top priority 171 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: and to do what it takes to get this done 172 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: this year. Having said that, there are really talented members 173 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: of the Republican Conference who are going to continue to 174 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: work on getting to a consent to us on on healthcare. 175 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: Because all the problems with Obamacare didn't go away just 176 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: because we had a failed vote. So those problems are real. 177 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: The individual exchange markets, i would argue, are in a 178 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: downward spiral. UH costs are accelerating, choices or dropping, and 179 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 1: so we still have to address this, but right now 180 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: we've got to move on and get tax reformed done. 181 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: Senator I would assume the phone is ringing off the hook. 182 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: Was scared Republicans after what we witnessed yesterday. Your fifteenth 183 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: congressional districts span from Helen down down to the edge 184 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: of Harrisburg, and by everyone's consensus, it's the close, most 185 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: closely contested district in the country. What are the lessons 186 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: you've learned by election after election after election enjoying winning 187 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 1: by or whatever the number is a given year. What 188 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 1: are the lessons you've learned that Jeff Lake of Arizona 189 00:10:55,640 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: and others can learn so that they don't become Senator Corker. Well, look, 190 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: I don't know that I'm in a position to, uh, 191 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: to teach those guys. They've they've run a lot of races. 192 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: They've they've been successful in their states. Every state is different. 193 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 1: My state, my state's a big, complicated state. Uh, their 194 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: states are are just different. So very talented guys. I 195 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: always believe that the most important thing for a candidate 196 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: to do is to be as to be very honest 197 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: and candid and transparent. Voters don't expect that you're that 198 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: they're going to agree with you on everything, and it 199 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: is not possible to get much of many people at 200 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 1: all that will agree with you on everything. But if 201 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: they believe that you care about the people you represent 202 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 1: and you're going to be straightforward and honest with people, 203 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: then they're willing to tolerate differences of opinion. You're the 204 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: announcement yesterday Bob Corkys Tom mentioned is gonna be stepping down. 205 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: He's not going to seek reelection in two thousand and eighteen. 206 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: As I recall, when you were in the House, you 207 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: said you were going to stick to terminal. It's imposed 208 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: by yourself. You weren't going to run after three terms. 209 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: I believe that's how many there were. Help us understand 210 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: the role of institutional memory and light of all of 211 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: that in Congress? Where what role should that play? How 212 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: much do you need new blood? Do you need change 213 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: in Washington? And are we seeing here on the other 214 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: side of that coined deficit of knowledge of the way 215 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: the institution's work. Well, you know that that's that's a 216 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: great debate that that surrounds the whole term limits idea. Um, 217 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: let me just say about Bob Corner We're gonna miss 218 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: Bob Corker, but not for a while. Right. He's gonna 219 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: be with us for over a year, and he's going 220 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: to continue to contribute so much to the Republican Conference 221 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 1: into the United States Senate as he has, and then 222 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,359 Speaker 1: we'll miss him when he when he is in his retirement. 223 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 1: I personally think that it is good to have turnover 224 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 1: in Congress. I think one of the problems we have 225 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: is too many people in Washington have never done anything 226 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: in their life other than politics. And they may have 227 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: gotten quite good at winning elections, but we are better 228 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 1: served as a republic, I think, by people who have 229 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: expertise in something. It's I love it when a medical 230 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: doctor comes in, when an army veteran comes in, when 231 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: a farmer comes in your where you ran Rookies restaurant 232 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: in Allentown? Why did you learn picking dimes off the 233 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 1: floor in Rookies restaurant in Allentown? You can help the 234 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 1: Prima Donna's with In Washington. You can denigrate a person 235 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 1: for operating a small business if you like, But when 236 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: you actually start a business from scratch and you put 237 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: all of the savings you've been able to scrape together 238 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: into that investment, and you're working eighty hours a week, 239 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: and yeah, sometimes that's picking up the dimes and sweeping 240 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: the floor, and it's scheduling and aspiring and it's all 241 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: the other things. You learn an awful lot about what 242 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: the people who create jobs in America have to contend with. 243 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 1: And so it is actually a very helpful learning exercise, 244 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: that informative judgment when you're looking at regulations and tax 245 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: policy and the other things that affect small bits and David, 246 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it's a perfect segue to the Big Six 247 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: and Pat Toomey going up to Ben's chili ball to 248 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 1: really understand how you how you make tax reform work. 249 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: There's one on Eighth Street now, so there's one closer 250 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: to the capital competition, which is a good thing. I'm 251 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: sure to let me just get a sense from me 252 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: of what role you want the White House to play 253 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: here when it comes to taxi form going forward. I've 254 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: spoken with Chairman Brady here in New York when he's 255 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: come up to talk about tax reform, and it's clear 256 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: that he and his staff, people who have been associate 257 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: with the Big Six have been working very hard on 258 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 1: the policy here over these many months. Do you want 259 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: the White House to take a leadership role or you 260 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: content for this now to be in Congress's court going forward? 261 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: I think it should continue to be a collaborative process. 262 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: I mean, Congress is going to write this. But look, 263 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: there's there's issues that are complicated and uh uh you know, 264 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: if I think we should trim the ability for large 265 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: businesses to deduct interest expenses, for instance, well how exactly 266 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: should we do that? Is it just perspective or is 267 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: it the entire balance sheet? Should we follow the model 268 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: that some O e c D countries have have taken 269 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 1: and limit the interested been to a percentage of ibida? 270 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: There's lots of ways to do it, and there's a 271 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: lot of expertise in the administration, at Treasury and in 272 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: other places. So so this should be a collaborative process. 273 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: In my mind, we're going to hold the pen going forward. 274 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: There's a great outline that's coming out and I guess 275 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: a few hours and and so with all the collaboration 276 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: we've had so far, we're starting from a very good place. 277 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: And uh that's I feel good about it. What do 278 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: you say to somebody who hears you talking about this? 279 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 1: Here's you talking about the merits of that debate, the 280 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: intellectual exercise of figuring out what hite work and what 281 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: might not. Who wonders why this didn't start sooner. We've 282 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: had the White House, we've had Congress working on this 283 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: for some time. Shouldn't a lot of this stuff been 284 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: decided by this point? No, well, I don't think so. 285 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: This this started actually prior to the president's being sworn in. 286 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: I've been meeting with the Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchin and 287 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: Gary Cone and my colleagues since January. And it takes 288 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: a while to, you know, to develop something that is 289 00:15:56,000 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: as complicated and important as the entire tax code. And 290 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: and this is very sweeping reform. We're talking about the 291 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: whole individual side, the whole corporate side, the pass through 292 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: you know, businesses that are organized as pastors. That's that's 293 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: an awful lot. If we get this all done and 294 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: signed into law by the end of this year, the 295 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: first year of this administration, that'll be a huge success. Senator, 296 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Pat Toomey from Strasstown, Pennsylvania, Allentown, 297 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: I'm down to Harrisburg within his congressional tour of duty, 298 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: and no representing all of Pennsyl Vanue, Pat Toomey as 299 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: the Republicans move forward off of a Tuesday miltdown, I 300 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: guess is one way to put it. Futures up, five 301 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: Deaf features up twenty one and economics, finance, investment, and politics. 302 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg David. What we learned from Mr Toomey? 303 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: What was it? What was the summer you took away? 304 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: You know? I said trick to get to there in 305 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: that last question. It sounds like this debate is just beginning, 306 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: So I don't think that we're gonna get a whole 307 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: lot of detail. We're gonna get these broad strokes, the 308 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: Bloombrigs reporting right now. But it sounds like there's still 309 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: a lot to be hammered out, and the White House, 310 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: to my mind, at least content to have Congress be 311 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: the forum for that to happen over these next few months. 312 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: Should we stay in Pennsylvania. I think we should. He 313 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: has a degree in classics at the University of Pennsylvania. 314 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: That would be classic football games, you know, like Eagles, 315 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: Steelers and the rest of it. I'm no, I'm kidding, 316 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: But Bob Michelle with us with JP Morgan, well how 317 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: do you get ready for finance? Taking a classics major 318 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: at Pennsylvania, it's the perfect discipline. You study years of 319 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 1: Latin and you have to go through lines and lines 320 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 1: of text and all the verbs come at the end. 321 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: So it's a puzzle you have to unravel. It sounds 322 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 1: like like the fat, doesn't it? When did you decide 323 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 1: to go into finance? Was this like the clouds parted 324 00:17:56,400 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: and Larry Summers? Uh father? Professor Summers walked in the 325 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: room and said, you finance? He learned great? When did 326 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: when did you decide to clip coupons? Well? In pen 327 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: there is this place called Wharton which encompasses all. So 328 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 1: even though you could study classics, Latin and Greek classical studies, 329 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: you can't escape what comes on infinite. You mentioned the 330 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 1: similarity here to translating what the Fed has to say, 331 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: and there's no Robert Fagels who can help us here 332 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: with with this. When you listen to uh Jenny Yellen 333 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: speaking yesterday, what did you hear from her? She she 334 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,679 Speaker 1: got a standing ovation, some commentators suggesting it was a 335 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: sign of a valedictory. Perhaps did you hear something different 336 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: from the FED chair yesterday? What I heard her say, 337 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: is she's taking the punch bowl away, that we've lived 338 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 1: with unconventional tools for a very long period of time, 339 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: that there are market distortions that are occurring. She's talked 340 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: about rich equity prices and asset prices in the past, 341 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: and we're a long way away from anything that looks normal. 342 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: And it's not just one path. It's not just raising 343 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,679 Speaker 1: rates or running down the balance sheet. It's both of 344 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: those things. I think she believes she's not going to 345 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: be reappointed, so let's get started on that path to 346 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 1: normalization before she exits. You go to the heart of it, 347 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: the Venn diagram of the overlap of interest rate dynamics 348 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: with balance sheet dynamics. Do you and your team at 349 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: JP Morgan have a belief that we can get to 350 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: where we want to be with stability, with stable glide 351 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: pass or do you just assume we're going to see 352 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: jump conditions. To be polite about it, initially we think 353 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 1: there's a glide path because interestingly enough, while the Fed 354 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 1: will begin running down its balance sheet in October, actually 355 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 1: the e c B in the Bank of Japan are 356 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: still printing money, so she's using them to cushion our 357 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: normalist station exactly. So they're they're a big cushion out there. 358 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 1: This time next year, the aggregate global central bank balance 359 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: sheet goes from expansion to contraction, and rates should be 360 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: close to another hundred basis points higher in the US. 361 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: I think that's where you're going to see the higher 362 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: volatility or the jump dislocations that you mentioned. Bob, You're 363 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: right that these next twelve months are going to be challenging. 364 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 1: How do you navigate the challenges that are gonna come 365 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 1: up here? The ft has by all accounts well telegraphed 366 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: what it intends to do here. What are the challenges 367 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: going to be and how do you do your best 368 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 1: to to surmount them? Well, I think the first thing 369 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 1: is to accept that the composition of the FED is 370 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: going to change. So the new FED chair that could 371 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 1: come in UM could decide why normalize the balance sheet. 372 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: It's done no harm four and a half trillion. The 373 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 1: banking system will grow into that in twenty years or so, 374 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: so let's just leave it where it is. UM. So, 375 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,199 Speaker 1: I think you have to be flexible. We we have 376 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,919 Speaker 1: the pass laid out, we have the signposts, we know 377 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: what we're watching from asset prices from normalization. We know 378 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: historically what looks normal for the FED and for the 379 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: bond markets, and then we'll try to marry in what 380 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: the FED is doing, the composition of the FED, and 381 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: then if anything comes out of the administration on the 382 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 1: physical side, how are geopolitical risks factoring into your thesis 383 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: at this point. We talked about North Korea a little 384 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: bit earlier with the with Howard Ward, and I wonder 385 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: if if that's weighing on the decisions that you're making 386 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: at this point, or if it's still just noise on 387 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: the periphery. It's it's hard to say that the potential 388 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: for for a nuclear event is just noise on the side, 389 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: but it is when you look at the markets, you 390 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: look at the fact that the rallies continue, that volatility 391 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: stays low. The bigger picture is the markets are drowning 392 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: and ash and it is this combination of QI and 393 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 1: it is savings and I think that's what concerns Yelling 394 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: the most and by Michael JP market asset management where 395 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,199 Speaker 1: us always good to have them with us. With some 396 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: theory available for institution and retail investors as well, what 397 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: will real rates do? We we are fail like everyone 398 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 1: else in the media, or nominal donal headline rate, et cetera. 399 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: The tenure yield, folks, two point two eight percent. Subtract 400 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: out inflation, and what is the real rate, the inflation 401 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 1: adjusted rate on that tenure. What's the path of the 402 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: real rate given fed dynamics, It's got to be higher. 403 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 1: And and that's an excellent point to go back to 404 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: to real yield. I'm gonna step out and talk about 405 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 1: the high yield market for a second. No one likes 406 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 1: the high yield market because you're right. You look at 407 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: the nominal yield five and a half percent, it doesn't 408 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 1: feel like that's high yield to us. When you look 409 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: at the credit spread, it's three and five eight percent. 410 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: That's actually pretty good for an environment where year over 411 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 1: year to false or one and by the way end 412 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: the cycle, credit spreads come into about two and a 413 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: half percent, so there's room there. It's all a really 414 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 1: old story. That's the impact the central banks have done. 415 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: That's the intention of que the way it works, Bob, 416 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 1: whether frankly I was just institutions as well as you 417 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 1: get the monthly statement on your fixed income account, your 418 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 1: bond account, your bill account, and one month you're down 419 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 1: a little bit, and then you know, yield up, price 420 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: down a second month. We haven't enjoyed a bond bear 421 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: market like years, am I right now? You're right? Hey? 422 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: Are ready for it? I've been in this for thirty 423 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 1: seven years. I've only known a BRT. Are you predicting 424 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: a bond bear market where price goes down enough to 425 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: upset savers? Not this year? Again. I think if we 426 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 1: get into next year and the FED continues to wind down, 427 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 1: that's balance sheet. I think the spring of next year, 428 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: that's when you're going to see the bear market take cold. 429 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: So do I believe that the thirty six year downtrend 430 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 1: in interest rates has ended? Yeah? I think we put 431 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: in the low earlier this year. Moderation. Yeah, And I 432 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:28,479 Speaker 1: think this path to normalization is all about a bear market, 433 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: and that's what we'll take yields. David, You or me? 434 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 1: Should we ask him about bitcoin? You go ahead. I'm like, 435 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: I want you to get the emails. I want you 436 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 1: to get the email. Mr Diamond spoke up about bitcoin. 437 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: How did that reverberate through the fixed income desk? I mean, 438 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 1: I understand there's other parts of JP Morgan that are 439 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: working in crypto this and crypto that, but have you 440 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: done a bit bitcoin essay yet? So I'm gonna tell 441 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: you an interesting story. I was in London when he 442 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 1: made those comments. I was actually doing an interview with 443 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 1: another press entity and the guy looked at and said 444 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,120 Speaker 1: and he said, you know, it's an The most interesting 445 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 1: thing about bitcoin is it's all the counterparty risk. In fact, 446 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,639 Speaker 1: in two thousand and ten, I bought some bitcoins. I 447 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 1: went to sell them later and they had disappeared, and 448 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 1: they're like, how might you buy ten thousand? And I said, 449 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: there there was and that was probably like twenty bucks 450 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: back then. There was his news story a few days 451 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,199 Speaker 1: earlier that the first use of bitcoins was to purchase 452 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 1: two pizzas for ten thousand dollars in two thousand and ten. 453 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: When this guy bought his, they're worth forty million dollars. 454 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,440 Speaker 1: I told him, somebody owes you forty million dollars, good 455 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,640 Speaker 1: luck collecting it. There you go, Michael, thank you very much. 456 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 1: Switch coin finance. Yes, Michael Barbro was taking you're not 457 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: hold No, I'm not no, I never I did not 458 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: go to the Matthew Miller School. A bitcoin charm. Yeah, 459 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: he was in earlier. Yeah, pizzas. I'm trying to stay 460 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 1: out of it. But thank you to joe Y and 461 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 1: Thought and Michael McKee for making a watch that video. 462 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: It still exists. I Mr Zuckerberg, I believe try to 463 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,199 Speaker 1: take it down. Michael, thank you so much. He is 464 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 1: with JP Morgan on fixed income a little bit there 465 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: on crypto currencies. Lindsay Bell has been acute for cf 466 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 1: r A, writing terse notes rationalizing being in the market. Lindsay, 467 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: let's start with what people are doing. Uh, you know 468 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 1: you hold chord at c f R A and all 469 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 1: of the standards and porest products. What are people actually 470 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,119 Speaker 1: doing with their money right now? Well, it's we like 471 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 1: to um, you know, slice and dice s a couple 472 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: of different ways. I personally focus on a lot of 473 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 1: the sectors and industries that oftentimes I also look at 474 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 1: the different factors or different styles of investing, and more 475 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 1: recently I've been keeping my eye on growth versus value, 476 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: and growth continues to win this year, um and it 477 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: is outpacing value because that's what but because that's what 478 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 1: people are doing with their money. They're putting their money 479 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: in their growth stocks, aren't they exactly because of given 480 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 1: the low economic growth rate that we're seeing, the uncertainty 481 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: that surrounds the said UH political policy here in the 482 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 1: US and abroad, and the geopolitical tensions that are out there, 483 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 1: UM investors feel that they can really just on the 484 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 1: growth sectors primarily. I heard Tom talking with Howard ward 485 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 1: Liter earlier on TV about Apple. Let's talk about technology 486 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 1: if we could. When you look at this on a 487 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,960 Speaker 1: sector by sector basis, what do you see when you 488 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:48,120 Speaker 1: look at technology. Well, technology has been a clear outperformer 489 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 1: UM this year especially, and it's gonna do very well 490 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 1: again once we get third quarter earnings results here in 491 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks. It's going to have the second 492 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: highest growth of ten points three percent on an earning spasis. 493 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 1: That's after energy. But energy is a special case coming 494 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 1: off a very low bar there UM. But we heard 495 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 1: from Micron Technology last night. It was a very good report. 496 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 1: Probably think still remains stable there um. The Apple iPhone 497 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: was a little bit you know, a disappointment for some people, 498 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 1: but this is a sector that's going to continue to 499 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: lead for UM the remainder of the year, especially as 500 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 1: we get into the cyclical six As my colleague Sam 501 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 1: stove All likes to focus on when we get into 502 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: the November through um April period, this sector usually outperforms. 503 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: I look at this and and you know the moonshot 504 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: that is growth. What is the underlying why of our 505 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: present growthiness. Is it desire to get anything at the 506 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 1: top line, is it something down the income statement or 507 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 1: is it just as a blunt instrument as use of cash? Yeah, 508 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 1: I mean I think it's just investors looking for UM 509 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: areas to make money. The value sectors have not done 510 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 1: as well, and that's your financials, your industrials because they 511 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 1: rely on economic growth which we haven't seen. So and 512 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: like I've said earlier, given the uncertainty that remains in 513 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: the market, this is UM for a lot of investors 514 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 1: just a key area UM too, an easy way to 515 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 1: get growth and to get exposure to a better appreciation 516 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: in the market. How much you you worried about the 517 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 1: geopolitical risk at this point, I'm asking everybody asking everybody 518 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: this this question. But how much is it weighing on 519 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: on your sense of what the market? What the market 520 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 1: is doing? Well, it's it's very interesting. I mean you 521 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 1: saw over the weekend any time there's escalation with North Korea, 522 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: the market pulls back initially, but just shrugs it off. 523 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 1: And I think part of that is because UM equities. 524 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: You know, I'm speaking from an equities perspective. UM really 525 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 1: is the best house on the block right now. You 526 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 1: still have an accommodate, accommodative fed easy monetary policy across 527 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: the globe, UM making stocks the most attractive investment, especially 528 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 1: with the yield on the SMP five two percent UM 529 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: it's you know, it's a better return than you can 530 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 1: find on a lot of other instruments right now. And 531 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: when we're the banks fit in in terms of this, 532 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 1: I mean, if they're value proposition, excuse me, if they're 533 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 1: value proposition, do they finally turn it on? Is chair 534 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: Yell normalizes? Yes, the day would the key beneficiaries of 535 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: a normalization process, and UM that you certainly see them 536 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,960 Speaker 1: pop every time there's there's talks of higher interest rates. UM, 537 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 1: we'll see what they have to say. I don't think 538 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 1: this third quarter is going to be a good one 539 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: for them. You already have a handful of the larger 540 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,719 Speaker 1: banks out there, UM downplaying with their trading businesses are 541 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 1: going to be like the low volatile environment is not 542 00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: good for them. Um. I think that they're seeing all 543 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: down even in investment banking, given the uncertain political environment 544 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: that we're currently operating him. I just find all of 545 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 1: this fascinating. We've got uh, just a lot, a lot 546 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: to talk about here as well. In the Echo. We're 547 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 1: gonna get you back on against soon, Lindsay Bell. This 548 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 1: just SUPs to talk about in the sectors as well, 549 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: growth in value. I'm gonna put a chart out, you'll 550 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: see it first on Bloomberg at Radio, will do that 551 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 1: on social and Twitter. Here and David, this is a 552 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 1: huge issue, the growth value conundrum. You can go back 553 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 1: twenty years and then been like this in ages and 554 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: she points to the Sharp ratio. That's something you and 555 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,479 Speaker 1: I have talked about that as well. I'm a huge, 556 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: huge supporter of the Sharp ratio because it doesn't include beta. 557 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 1: I don't like beta analysis and Sharp is one of 558 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 1: the few risk reward or reward risk ratios that excludes beta. 559 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 1: And that's a good thing. It's like with Michael Barr, 560 00:31:55,800 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 1: we want a beta free news as well. Why don't 561 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: you bring in our luckiest steam guest, David Girl, Jeff 562 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 1: Thomas is killing it and Brolin. He gets to go 563 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: to the beer pubs, the craft beers like Beer Kombinant 564 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 1: Kruzberg b KK like one of them. Uh. And he 565 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 1: also has to keep Matt Miller in line, which is 566 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 1: no easy test. Have you with us on the show 567 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 1: here on this news chat um, the wolf Cake travel 568 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 1: would be leaving the Finance Ministry to to become the 569 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 1: president of the Buddhastug. Let's start first with what that 570 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 1: role is. We're familiar with what the chancellor does in Germany. 571 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 1: I venture to say fewer vest are familiar with what 572 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 1: the president of the buddhas dug. That does explain the 573 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 1: importance of this role. Yeah, well, the role is very 574 00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 1: similar to the Speaker of the House in the US. 575 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: The Buddhistalk president is responsible essentially for the running of 576 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 1: the Buddhistag. The Chancellor, of course, often isn't even at 577 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 1: the Buddhist Tag when they're in session because she is 578 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 1: traveling around the world meeting with world leaders out and 579 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: about in Germany. So the role is really important because 580 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 1: it's the person who sort of gets the business done 581 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: in the Buddhistalk. What's the relationship been like between Mr 582 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: Scheibla and Chancellor Angela Merkel and how much uncertainty was 583 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: there surrounding his position him continuing this Finance minister after 584 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,960 Speaker 1: the results of that election Sunday night were tabulated. Well, 585 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 1: I think you could say that they that the two 586 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: of them have a bit of a love hate relationship 587 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 1: with one with one another. They there's a definite rivalry 588 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 1: that plays out between them, but they also realized that 589 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 1: they both need one another. Uh Wolf is incredibly popular 590 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: in Germany. Chancellor a Miracle leans on him to be 591 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 1: sort of the voice of sort of the fiscal conservatism 592 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,719 Speaker 1: within the party, so she knows that she meets him. 593 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 1: On the other hand, he's a bit of a rival 594 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 1: to her. But is this part of a shift off 595 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 1: of what the a f D did, the far right 596 00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 1: party did in Dresden and other geographies. Can you linked 597 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 1: the two together? You absolutely all, right, Tom, you can 598 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 1: linked them. And there was a real discussion after the 599 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: election about the importance of the person running the Buddhist 600 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: talk in part because of the a f D getting 601 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 1: into the Buddhist talk right and and there's a concern 602 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 1: about what that will mean for the operations of of 603 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 1: this You know, important Parliament, and so they wanted someone 604 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,800 Speaker 1: who had a lot of experience and and could really hopefully, 605 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,240 Speaker 1: you know, work to keep them in line. Who replaces uh, 606 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:35,040 Speaker 1: his Finance Minister, Matt Miller, I'd love to see that. 607 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,719 Speaker 1: I'm sure he'd raise his hand. Um that that's the 608 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,239 Speaker 1: that's the real question here. And and and this in 609 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 1: part potentially buys Chancellor Miracles some options because let's not 610 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 1: forget she she's trying to put together a coalition. She's 611 00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 1: looking at this moment at a coalition that will include 612 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,239 Speaker 1: two other parties. It's a coalition that they've never done 613 00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 1: at the national level before. And now if she's able 614 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 1: to get book Gone Schreibla over into the Buddhastak as 615 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,759 Speaker 1: the president, that allows her to potentially offer this plump 616 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: post to one of the potential coalition partners. And and 617 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: and the real question then who gets it will tell 618 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,320 Speaker 1: us what direction they want to go with fiscal policy. 619 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 1: If it's the Free Democrats, it's going to be very 620 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 1: conservative and and remain sort of in the Schreibel line, 621 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 1: or even be a bit tougher. But if it's the 622 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: Greens who end up with the Finance ministry, then there 623 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 1: could be a potential loosening of fiscal policies. So at 624 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 1: this point it really depends on which direction she goes 625 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,320 Speaker 1: in terms of who she offers it to. You mentioned 626 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 1: the coalition building process. What's the best estimate here of 627 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 1: how long that's that's going to take, how uneasy it's 628 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 1: gonna be for for the Chancellor to align her party 629 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 1: to some of these others. Well, the last time around, 630 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 1: it took until just before Christmas to get together the coalition, 631 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 1: and that was when it was a grand coalition between 632 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 1: her party and the Social Democrats. Now you're talking about 633 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:57,040 Speaker 1: trying to put together three parties, her her party plus 634 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,320 Speaker 1: two others and actually her party as a sister party, 635 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:03,760 Speaker 1: so there's four of them joining these discussions. So everyone 636 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 1: thinks that the likelihood of it being done before the 637 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:10,320 Speaker 1: end of December is really very unlikely. If you're just 638 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,320 Speaker 1: joining us, Chad Thomas with us giving his fabulous perspective 639 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,320 Speaker 1: from Berlin or bureau chief. Uh, they're Chad, it's a 640 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:21,320 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty miles drive from Berlin directly south to Dresden, 641 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,680 Speaker 1: over near the Czech Republic, over near Poland. But what 642 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 1: is the cultural distance between OsO hit Berlin and a 643 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:33,719 Speaker 1: city like Dresden, well, you know many a city like 644 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 1: Dresden and many of these these eastern German cities, they 645 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 1: feel like the people who were left behind. And that's 646 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,800 Speaker 1: why you have a German state like Saxony UH where 647 00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,360 Speaker 1: the a f D they were the biggest party. They 648 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:53,360 Speaker 1: feel that they have no voice or they're not heard, 649 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 1: and so they've turned to the a f D out 650 00:36:56,239 --> 00:37:00,160 Speaker 1: of protesting. And really interesting side factory here is at 651 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 1: this deal that happened today between UH, Siemens and Alstom 652 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:09,200 Speaker 1: where these two trainmaker or they linked their train units together. 653 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,440 Speaker 1: This could play out again in eastern Germany because Bombardier, 654 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 1: which was considered at one point to be the alternative 655 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 1: option for for Siemens. Bombardier has a lot of factories 656 00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 1: in eastern Germany and now they're people are calling to 657 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 1: question what is going to happen with these these factories 658 00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 1: if the Alstom Siemens happens. I mean, I mean David 659 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: helped me here, but I would suggest that the sum 660 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,799 Speaker 1: total knowledge of Americans is the Frankford Airport. Maybe they've 661 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,800 Speaker 1: been to the e c B. Once they go to Hamburg, 662 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 1: once in their life. They go to Berlin. If their 663 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 1: hip and you know, you know hipsters like David and 664 00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 1: all that, don't don't forget october Fest. Yeah Octobers, they 665 00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,160 Speaker 1: go to Munich, you know, if they need an insurance policy. 666 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,120 Speaker 1: Away from the stereotypes we have of Germany, what is 667 00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:55,720 Speaker 1: that gap in Can the Bundestag and Chancellor Miracle begin 668 00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 1: to heal this tangible gap we see is a far 669 00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:05,120 Speaker 1: right party enters the blood stock that is that is 670 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,799 Speaker 1: really the hundred million dollar question here. On the one hand, 671 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 1: you have the one side of Germany where where they 672 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,879 Speaker 1: have a lot of economic success, that everything is going 673 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,000 Speaker 1: quite well on the surface, but there are there's a 674 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:22,320 Speaker 1: portion of the population who feels left behind by the 675 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:26,840 Speaker 1: globalization that has taken place Germany. Germany is an export nation. 676 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 1: They've you know, done very well under the system that 677 00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 1: we have, but there are those in particular in the 678 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,840 Speaker 1: East to feel that they are they've been left behind 679 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,759 Speaker 1: by this and it's a it's a phenomenon of course, 680 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,279 Speaker 1: we're seeing play out in other countries as well. Well. Chad, 681 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,960 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Chad Thomas with us out of Berlin. 682 00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,680 Speaker 1: This is one of the great values of the Bloomberg 683 00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:49,759 Speaker 1: platform is you know, with the news, David, we can 684 00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:57,600 Speaker 1: just wondred perspective. I believe I did once, but no, 685 00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:02,399 Speaker 1: we had many other people that have vieh yeah, Matt 686 00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:07,239 Speaker 1: Miller chief among them for sure. Anyway, the big news 687 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,239 Speaker 1: today Wolfgang shoy Blas said to be ready to leave 688 00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,920 Speaker 1: his post at the Finance Ministry, something we so closely 689 00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:13,759 Speaker 1: associate with them, to leave the Bundestag, and as we 690 00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:17,880 Speaker 1: heard there from Chad Thomas, a pivotal role in German politics. 691 00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:30,640 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 692 00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:36,040 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 693 00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,680 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David 694 00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,880 Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can 695 00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:47,040 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio