WEBVTT - Will Kids Spread COVID to Teachers? 0:00:04.320 --> 0:00:09.559 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one forty 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:17.440 seven since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story, parents, teachers, 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:22.280 and school boards are facing urgent and difficult decisions about 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:27.600 whether and how to send kids back to school. Part 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:30.480 of why that's so hard is that we still don't 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:34.360 know enough about what this virus does to children and 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:40.400 those around them. But first, here's what happened in virus 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:51.480 news today. The sped up timeline to make a vaccine 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:56.720 doesn't mean it won't be safe. That's according to Anthony Faucci, 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:00.840 the US government's top infectious disease expert, who spoke to 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:07.800 Bloomberg Television today. We pay particular attention to safety, and 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:13.480 the repidity with which we are moving relates more to technical, 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:17.520 logical advances and how you can make a vaccine even 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:23.120 before you start testing it. That makes me confident that 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:27.640 we are going to do everything we can to determine safety. 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:31.880 Faucci has said the government strategy is to fund several 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:36.640 vaccine projects in the hopes one or more will be effective. 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:41.480 That creates a financial risk, he says, but not a 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:46.160 health one. The Chicago Public School System, the third largest 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:49.600 in the US, backed away from a plan for part 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:53.800 time in person attendance blended with remote learning and will 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:59.560 conduct all classes online. The district will assess if it's 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:03.680 safe to open to hybrid learning in November. The decision 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:07.000 comes as case numbers rise in the city and is 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:10.320 based on public health data and survey results from a 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:14.040 large portion of parents who are not yet comfortable sending 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:20.000 their children to school, according to a statement from the city. Finally, 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:24.480 some new data suggests that transfusions of blood rich with 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:29.480 antibodies from recovered COVID nineteen patients can reduce the death 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:34.600 rate in hospitalized patients by half. That's according to a 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:38.200 report in The Wall Street Journal that cited data from 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:42.760 researchers at a Mayo clinic webinar. The data was submitted 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:46.160 to the US Food and Drug Administration, but hasn't been 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:55.800 published in a journal or subject to peer review. And 0:02:55.919 --> 0:03:00.280 now for today's main story. Earlier this year, school gates 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:05.160 around the world slammed shut. By early April, some one 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:09.120 point five billion young people were staying home somewhere in 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.359 the world as part of a broader lockdown to counter 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:17.840 the novel coronavirus. The drastic measure worked in many places. 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:22.080 Now as fall approaches, attention is turning back to a 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:27.720 pillar of a pandemic resilient society schools. The role of 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:31.920 children in driving transmission of the coronavirus isn't clear, and 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:35.440 what we know about past respiratory infections isn't a lot 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:40.120 of help. Bud As Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale finds 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:47.960 out some clearer trends are emerging. Back in January and 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.360 the first month of the pandemic, I wrote a story 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.440 based on a study in the lands at Medical General. 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:54.960 It was about six members of a family from the 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:57.600 southern Chinese city of Shenzen who had spent the new 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:00.560 year with relatives and wohan. Most of them caught the 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.640 coronavirus while they were visiting the city and became sick 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.280 with COVID nineteen, the disease it causes. After they got home. 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:09.840 When they were getting tested, the parents of a ten 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.480 year old boy insisted that he also have a CT 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.640 scan of his chest, even though he had no apparent symptoms. 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:21.800 His doctors caved and did the scan. Unexpectedly, they found 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:24.839 the child did have pneumonia and A follow up swab 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:28.239 confirmed he was infected with a newly identified sas Kovy 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:31.200 two virus. The authors of the lance of paper said 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.520 the child was shedding virus without symptoms, and such cryptic 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:39.120 cases of walking pneumonia might serve as a possible source 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:44.760 to propagate the outbreak. Six months later, the role of 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:48.120 children in the pandemic continues to baffle. I asked Dr 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:51.600 Thomas File, President of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.560 what he makes of the evidence about kids in the coronavirus. Now, 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:58.359 that's a big issue of Jason, particularly right now here 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.599 because everybody's thinking of reopening schools. Thomas is terror of 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:07.279 the Infectious Disease Division at Sumer Health Hospital System in Akron, Ohio. 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.080 He's had quite a bit of experience with kids and 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:14.120 respiratory infections, but none of that has been especially useful 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:18.000 with this virus. It's much different than all other respiratory 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.080 infections because I can tell you I have a five 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.279 and an eight year old grand children and I interact 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:25.280 with a lot, and I can tell you every time 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:27.640 they get a cold, my wife and I get a cold, Okay, 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.400 they spread it to us, and we know very well. 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:34.600 That if you look at another significant restaurant infection, influenza, 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:39.359 children are a big source of transmission within the community. 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.600 I mean, if you can control influenza and children, you're 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:44.760 going to really control it in the adults as well. 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:48.440 But this is not that case. This is so different. Yeah, 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:55.080 children are typically super spread as of respiratory germs, and 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:57.560 that makes it puzzling that kids don't seem to be 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:02.000 major transmitters of Sanskovi two. Children are relatively absent among 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.560 hospitalized patients as well. Initially, it was thought that it 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.120 was because they're less likely to become seriously ill once infected. 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.640 Later studies indicate that those of primary school age at 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.320 least may be less likely to catch the virus in 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:20.279 the first place. There are studies to suggest list and 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:26.280 apply their children dependent in particularly young children number one, 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:32.200 are less susceptible to serious infection, but more importantly transmittal less. 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:39.760 Last Friday, the CDC published an account of a large 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.599 outbreak of COVID nineteen at a summer camp in Georgia. 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.080 There were almost six hundred campers, staff and trainees at 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:49.560 the event, which started on June seventeen. It wrapped up 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.880 earlier week later, after a teenage staff member developed chills 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.760 and tested positive for sask V two. All up two 0:06:56.800 --> 0:07:05.840 hundred and sixty people or were infected. Some fifty six 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.880 percent of staff caught the virus, as did just over 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.600 half the campus age six to ten. In fact, the 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.000 virus need to spread more among these younger kids than 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:18.480 older children and adults. It's estimated that people younger than 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:22.000 eighteen make up somewhere between two and five percent of 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:26.360 all laboratory confirmed COVID nineteen cases, and that's well below 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:29.480 that age group's share of the global population, which hovers 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:34.160 around the propensity of children to transmit SiZ CoV two 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:38.080 to other people is anything but clear. This is a 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:41.320 really big area of unknown in terms of the science. 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:44.880 This is Dr Caitlin Rivers. She's an epidemiologist at the 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:49.320 Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore, Maryland. We 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.800 know that children are capable of spreading, particularly children who 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:56.120 developed symptoms, but thankfully children are at lower risk of 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:58.480 severe illness than adults, and so many of them have 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:02.000 asymptomatic infections, they don't have any symptoms at all. And 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:04.520 what we don't know is whether those children are likely 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:08.200 to transmit and how often that happens. Compared to adults, 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.760 Children with COVID nineteen typically have milder symptoms that are 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:14.240 mostly limited to the nose and throat and upper airway, 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:19.520 and they rarely require hospitalization. Understanding the prevalence of asymptomatic 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.840 infection is harder because you don't know where these cases 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:25.960 are unless people happen to get tested. Finding people who 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:29.680 are infected but have no symptoms sometimes happens as part 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:31.960 of efforts to trace and test those who have been 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.959 in prolonged or close contact with the COVID nineteen case, 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:37.960 and that makes it very difficult also to follow them 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.720 and to see do they spread, to whom do they spread? 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:42.679 And so that's why there's a lot of unknowns right 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.480 now about children, and that's where the research is really 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:50.080 trying to learn more. Although some research points to younger 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.840 children being less likely to spread sask Covey, too, certain 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:58.040 things about them makes them potential virus vectors. There are 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:00.440 a few common behaviorows and children that you make them 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.440 more likely to spread infectious disease. The first is they're 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.040 not as good at personal hygiene and they're not really 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.520 able particularly the younger children to observe things like physical 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.319 distancing and mask us. I think we're learning actually that 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:14.360 children are capable of a lot more of that than 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:16.400 we ever thought, because we see kids all the time 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.920 observing those behaviors in this current pandemic. But on average, 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:22.880 I think they're less compliant than adults, and they also, 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.200 particularly for kids who are in child care or who 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:27.760 go to school, have a lot more contacts than adults. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.920 What about all the children in terms of the behavior patterns, 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:35.440 I think older children are obviously more able to comply 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:39.520 with physical distancing, hand hygiene mask use, and so from 0:09:39.520 --> 0:09:43.200 that perspective it would be safer to be around older children. 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:47.480 We don't see any really strong differences in disease severity 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:51.520 between very young children and very old children, so that 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:53.920 doesn't weigh in too heavily. But we do see that 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.320 infants under the age of one are at higher risk 0:09:56.360 --> 0:10:06.920 of severe illness than the one plus to eat tier range. 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:12.880 Scientists in London found that clinical symptoms manifesting only of 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:16.480 infections in tens and nineteen year olds, rising to six 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:21.200 in people older than seventy. A handful of fatal pediatric 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:24.880 cases has been reported, mostly in kids who are already 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:28.640 very sick with cancer or some other life threatening condition. Also, 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:32.240 a dangerous inflammatory syndrome has been associated with kids, but 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:36.000 it's very rare. There are several theories why younger people 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:39.600 in general may be less susceptible to COVID nineteen. Some 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.480 scientists have positive that the disease might be sparing children 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:45.600 because they're less exposed to the virus. With school closures 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:50.240 and distancing measures largely isolating them, it's possible children mount 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:53.720 a more robust initial immune response to the virus, giving 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:56.199 the body a better shot at fending it off and 0:10:56.280 --> 0:11:00.199 avoiding some complications adults get. It's also being suggested did 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:03.080 that the receptive the virus uses to invade human cells 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.360 is less mature in children, making it harder for it 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:09.520 to cause an infection. There's also the fact that younger 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.760 people are less likely to have hypertension, type two diabetes, 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.600 and other chronic conditions known to increase the severity of 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:20.160 COVID nineteen. Caitlin Rivers says that although children are generally 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:23.040 at low risk of severe illness, it's not just children 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:25.240 in schools who need to be considered in deciding when 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:28.600 and how to bring kids safely back to the classroom. 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.080 It's also adults and this is their workplace, and so 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:33.760 we need to consider their health and safety as well 0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:37.000 in this in this decision making process and acknowledge that 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:38.760 they are the ones who are really at higher risk 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:42.760 considering illness and thinking through this problem. Caitlin says the 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:46.080 level of coronavirus circulating in the community also needs to 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.280 be taken into consideration, because it will be much harder 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.440 to reopen schools when the community is experiencing a high 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.560 burden of disease, and communities needs to weigh the consequences 0:11:56.600 --> 0:12:00.320 of not opening schools too. There are cars us if 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.120 you will, associated with online learning as well, and that 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:05.680 not all communities are, not all groups of children, not 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:08.000 all age groups will be well suited to online learning, 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.079 and so it's really about balancing those competing risks and 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:14.559 benefits and challenges. I think for communities that do choose 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:18.240 to reintroduce in person learning, making the classroom safer looks 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.880 a lot like introducing the interventions that we've all become 0:12:20.880 --> 0:12:23.800 a coustom to observing in our everyday lives. That means 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:26.640 physical distancing, which in this case means keeping kids apart 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:30.320 mascuse for everyone, not just teachers, but also the kids. 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.440 Improving ventilation to try to get some fresh air in 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:36.679 and providing as many opportunities as possible for hand hygiene, 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:39.520 and that can include both open water or alcohol based 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:42.920 and sanitizer. And it's really the suite of interventions taken 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:48.000 together that will reduce the risk of transmission in the classroom. 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.600 When it comes to questions about the coronavirus children and classrooms, 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:56.000 there are no easy answers, but information based on science 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.120 and public health can at least inform bit of choices 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:11.960 for the healthen well being everyone. That was Jason Gale, 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.200 and that's it for our show today. For coverage of 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:17.920 the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:23.000 visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.480 the show, please leave us a review and a rating 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:29.160 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:33.800 help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:38.720 edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Henrickson 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:43.160 and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:48.160 Jason Gale. Original music by Leo sedri Our. Editors are 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:53.079 Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 0:13:53.120 --> 0:14:20.720 of podcasts. Thanks for listening.