1 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:09,559 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one forty 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: seven since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story, parents, teachers, 3 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: and school boards are facing urgent and difficult decisions about 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: whether and how to send kids back to school. Part 5 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: of why that's so hard is that we still don't 6 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: know enough about what this virus does to children and 7 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: those around them. But first, here's what happened in virus 8 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: news today. The sped up timeline to make a vaccine 9 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: doesn't mean it won't be safe. That's according to Anthony Faucci, 10 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: the US government's top infectious disease expert, who spoke to 11 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television today. We pay particular attention to safety, and 12 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: the repidity with which we are moving relates more to technical, 13 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: logical advances and how you can make a vaccine even 14 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 1: before you start testing it. That makes me confident that 15 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: we are going to do everything we can to determine safety. 16 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: Faucci has said the government strategy is to fund several 17 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 1: vaccine projects in the hopes one or more will be effective. 18 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: That creates a financial risk, he says, but not a 19 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: health one. The Chicago Public School System, the third largest 20 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: in the US, backed away from a plan for part 21 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: time in person attendance blended with remote learning and will 22 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: conduct all classes online. The district will assess if it's 23 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: safe to open to hybrid learning in November. The decision 24 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: comes as case numbers rise in the city and is 25 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: based on public health data and survey results from a 26 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: large portion of parents who are not yet comfortable sending 27 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: their children to school, according to a statement from the city. Finally, 28 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: some new data suggests that transfusions of blood rich with 29 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 1: antibodies from recovered COVID nineteen patients can reduce the death 30 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: rate in hospitalized patients by half. That's according to a 31 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: report in The Wall Street Journal that cited data from 32 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: researchers at a Mayo clinic webinar. The data was submitted 33 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: to the US Food and Drug Administration, but hasn't been 34 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: published in a journal or subject to peer review. And 35 00:02:55,919 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: now for today's main story. Earlier this year, school gates 36 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: around the world slammed shut. By early April, some one 37 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: point five billion young people were staying home somewhere in 38 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,359 Speaker 1: the world as part of a broader lockdown to counter 39 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: the novel coronavirus. The drastic measure worked in many places. 40 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: Now as fall approaches, attention is turning back to a 41 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: pillar of a pandemic resilient society schools. The role of 42 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 1: children in driving transmission of the coronavirus isn't clear, and 43 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: what we know about past respiratory infections isn't a lot 44 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: of help. Bud As Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale finds 45 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: out some clearer trends are emerging. Back in January and 46 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: the first month of the pandemic, I wrote a story 47 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: based on a study in the lands at Medical General. 48 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: It was about six members of a family from the 49 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: southern Chinese city of Shenzen who had spent the new 50 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: year with relatives and wohan. Most of them caught the 51 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: coronavirus while they were visiting the city and became sick 52 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: with COVID nineteen, the disease it causes. After they got home. 53 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: When they were getting tested, the parents of a ten 54 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: year old boy insisted that he also have a CT 55 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: scan of his chest, even though he had no apparent symptoms. 56 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: His doctors caved and did the scan. Unexpectedly, they found 57 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: the child did have pneumonia and A follow up swab 58 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,239 Speaker 1: confirmed he was infected with a newly identified sas Kovy 59 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: two virus. The authors of the lance of paper said 60 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: the child was shedding virus without symptoms, and such cryptic 61 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 1: cases of walking pneumonia might serve as a possible source 62 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: to propagate the outbreak. Six months later, the role of 63 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: children in the pandemic continues to baffle. I asked Dr 64 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: Thomas File, President of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 65 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: what he makes of the evidence about kids in the coronavirus. Now, 66 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: that's a big issue of Jason, particularly right now here 67 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: because everybody's thinking of reopening schools. Thomas is terror of 68 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: the Infectious Disease Division at Sumer Health Hospital System in Akron, Ohio. 69 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: He's had quite a bit of experience with kids and 70 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: respiratory infections, but none of that has been especially useful 71 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: with this virus. It's much different than all other respiratory 72 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: infections because I can tell you I have a five 73 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 1: and an eight year old grand children and I interact 74 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 1: with a lot, and I can tell you every time 75 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: they get a cold, my wife and I get a cold, Okay, 76 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: they spread it to us, and we know very well. 77 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: That if you look at another significant restaurant infection, influenza, 78 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 1: children are a big source of transmission within the community. 79 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if you can control influenza and children, you're 80 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: going to really control it in the adults as well. 81 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: But this is not that case. This is so different. Yeah, 82 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: children are typically super spread as of respiratory germs, and 83 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: that makes it puzzling that kids don't seem to be 84 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: major transmitters of Sanskovi two. Children are relatively absent among 85 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: hospitalized patients as well. Initially, it was thought that it 86 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: was because they're less likely to become seriously ill once infected. 87 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: Later studies indicate that those of primary school age at 88 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: least may be less likely to catch the virus in 89 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: the first place. There are studies to suggest list and 90 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 1: apply their children dependent in particularly young children number one, 91 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: are less susceptible to serious infection, but more importantly transmittal less. 92 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: Last Friday, the CDC published an account of a large 93 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: outbreak of COVID nineteen at a summer camp in Georgia. 94 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: There were almost six hundred campers, staff and trainees at 95 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: the event, which started on June seventeen. It wrapped up 96 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: earlier week later, after a teenage staff member developed chills 97 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: and tested positive for sask V two. All up two 98 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty people or were infected. Some fifty six 99 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: percent of staff caught the virus, as did just over 100 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: half the campus age six to ten. In fact, the 101 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: virus need to spread more among these younger kids than 102 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: older children and adults. It's estimated that people younger than 103 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: eighteen make up somewhere between two and five percent of 104 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: all laboratory confirmed COVID nineteen cases, and that's well below 105 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: that age group's share of the global population, which hovers 106 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: around the propensity of children to transmit SiZ CoV two 107 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: to other people is anything but clear. This is a 108 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: really big area of unknown in terms of the science. 109 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: This is Dr Caitlin Rivers. She's an epidemiologist at the 110 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore, Maryland. We 111 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: know that children are capable of spreading, particularly children who 112 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: developed symptoms, but thankfully children are at lower risk of 113 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: severe illness than adults, and so many of them have 114 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: asymptomatic infections, they don't have any symptoms at all. And 115 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: what we don't know is whether those children are likely 116 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: to transmit and how often that happens. Compared to adults, 117 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: Children with COVID nineteen typically have milder symptoms that are 118 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: mostly limited to the nose and throat and upper airway, 119 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: and they rarely require hospitalization. Understanding the prevalence of asymptomatic 120 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: infection is harder because you don't know where these cases 121 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: are unless people happen to get tested. Finding people who 122 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: are infected but have no symptoms sometimes happens as part 123 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: of efforts to trace and test those who have been 124 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,959 Speaker 1: in prolonged or close contact with the COVID nineteen case, 125 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: and that makes it very difficult also to follow them 126 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: and to see do they spread, to whom do they spread? 127 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: And so that's why there's a lot of unknowns right 128 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: now about children, and that's where the research is really 129 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 1: trying to learn more. Although some research points to younger 130 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: children being less likely to spread sask Covey, too, certain 131 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: things about them makes them potential virus vectors. There are 132 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 1: a few common behaviorows and children that you make them 133 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: more likely to spread infectious disease. The first is they're 134 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: not as good at personal hygiene and they're not really 135 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: able particularly the younger children to observe things like physical 136 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,319 Speaker 1: distancing and mask us. I think we're learning actually that 137 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: children are capable of a lot more of that than 138 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: we ever thought, because we see kids all the time 139 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: observing those behaviors in this current pandemic. But on average, 140 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: I think they're less compliant than adults, and they also, 141 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: particularly for kids who are in child care or who 142 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: go to school, have a lot more contacts than adults. 143 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: What about all the children in terms of the behavior patterns, 144 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 1: I think older children are obviously more able to comply 145 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: with physical distancing, hand hygiene mask use, and so from 146 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: that perspective it would be safer to be around older children. 147 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: We don't see any really strong differences in disease severity 148 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: between very young children and very old children, so that 149 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: doesn't weigh in too heavily. But we do see that 150 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: infants under the age of one are at higher risk 151 00:09:56,360 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: of severe illness than the one plus to eat tier range. 152 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: Scientists in London found that clinical symptoms manifesting only of 153 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: infections in tens and nineteen year olds, rising to six 154 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 1: in people older than seventy. A handful of fatal pediatric 155 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: cases has been reported, mostly in kids who are already 156 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: very sick with cancer or some other life threatening condition. Also, 157 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: a dangerous inflammatory syndrome has been associated with kids, but 158 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: it's very rare. There are several theories why younger people 159 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 1: in general may be less susceptible to COVID nineteen. Some 160 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: scientists have positive that the disease might be sparing children 161 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: because they're less exposed to the virus. With school closures 162 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: and distancing measures largely isolating them, it's possible children mount 163 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: a more robust initial immune response to the virus, giving 164 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 1: the body a better shot at fending it off and 165 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:00,199 Speaker 1: avoiding some complications adults get. It's also being suggested did 166 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: that the receptive the virus uses to invade human cells 167 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: is less mature in children, making it harder for it 168 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: to cause an infection. There's also the fact that younger 169 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: people are less likely to have hypertension, type two diabetes, 170 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: and other chronic conditions known to increase the severity of 171 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. Caitlin Rivers says that although children are generally 172 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: at low risk of severe illness, it's not just children 173 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: in schools who need to be considered in deciding when 174 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: and how to bring kids safely back to the classroom. 175 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 1: It's also adults and this is their workplace, and so 176 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: we need to consider their health and safety as well 177 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 1: in this in this decision making process and acknowledge that 178 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: they are the ones who are really at higher risk 179 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: considering illness and thinking through this problem. Caitlin says the 180 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: level of coronavirus circulating in the community also needs to 181 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: be taken into consideration, because it will be much harder 182 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: to reopen schools when the community is experiencing a high 183 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 1: burden of disease, and communities needs to weigh the consequences 184 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: of not opening schools too. There are cars us if 185 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: you will, associated with online learning as well, and that 186 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 1: not all communities are, not all groups of children, not 187 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: all age groups will be well suited to online learning, 188 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 1: and so it's really about balancing those competing risks and 189 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,559 Speaker 1: benefits and challenges. I think for communities that do choose 190 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: to reintroduce in person learning, making the classroom safer looks 191 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: a lot like introducing the interventions that we've all become 192 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: a coustom to observing in our everyday lives. That means 193 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: physical distancing, which in this case means keeping kids apart 194 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 1: mascuse for everyone, not just teachers, but also the kids. 195 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: Improving ventilation to try to get some fresh air in 196 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 1: and providing as many opportunities as possible for hand hygiene, 197 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: and that can include both open water or alcohol based 198 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: and sanitizer. And it's really the suite of interventions taken 199 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: together that will reduce the risk of transmission in the classroom. 200 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: When it comes to questions about the coronavirus children and classrooms, 201 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: there are no easy answers, but information based on science 202 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: and public health can at least inform bit of choices 203 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: for the healthen well being everyone. That was Jason Gale, 204 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 1: and that's it for our show today. For coverage of 205 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, 206 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like 207 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating 208 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 209 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 210 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Henrickson 211 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 212 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: Jason Gale. Original music by Leo sedri Our. Editors are 213 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 214 00:13:53,120 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening.