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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Gaty Gopinath was an

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Speaker 1: academic at Harvard. She was known within the racket, we

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Speaker 1: all knew that, but found immense acclaim As the former

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Speaker 1: deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, she brought

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Speaker 1: an academic gravitas to it that was just absolutely wonderful.

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Speaker 1: As they do, they wanted her to stay at IMF.

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Speaker 1: She had to return to Harvard. Professor Gopinath joins us

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Speaker 1: in this time of international turmoil, geta thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining this morning.

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Speaker 2: What was it like.

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Speaker 1: Your first day back at Harvard? You go from Gorgieva

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Speaker 1: in four hundred PhDs telling you what to do with

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Speaker 1: the IMF? What was it like in front of the

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Speaker 1: kids at Harvard the first day? Hi?

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Speaker 2: Tom, always I was miss speaking to you, So it's

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Speaker 2: great to kick off with you. Know this kind of

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Speaker 2: a question that I don't usually get from anybody else.

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Speaker 1: Well, what was it like? I mean, did you Stanley

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Speaker 1: Fisher says that that Samuelson used to throw chalk? What

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Speaker 1: did you do with the dumb students after the fancy

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Speaker 1: people at the IMF?

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Speaker 2: It's actually been going great. I am enjoying very much

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Speaker 2: being back at Harvard. And it also helps to be

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Speaker 2: able to be able to speak a little more freely

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Speaker 2: than one does when when you're when you're at the IMF.

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Speaker 2: So I'm enjoying this moment a lot. And also I

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Speaker 2: love working with the students and getting back into research

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Speaker 2: and something I did miss.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's where I wanted to go. The research of

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Speaker 1: say Rudy Dornbush back ages and ages or can ro

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Speaker 1: go Off and others, is there is a cycle to

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Speaker 1: financial upset, a cycle to financial contagion with the private

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Speaker 1: credit percolation, and again a war is tangible. Are we

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Speaker 1: at another inflection point where we see crisis in finance?

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Speaker 2: The troubles in a with private credit were actually there

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Speaker 2: even without the right current war in Iran, we were

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Speaker 2: seeing signs of distress in terms of loan defaults. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this has always been an incredibly opaque sector. And when

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Speaker 2: we're worried about where we could see another crisis coming

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Speaker 2: around the corner, it was about this huge growth and

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Speaker 2: non bank financial institutions that now own over fifty percent

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Speaker 2: of the world's assets, and especially in a private credit,

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Speaker 2: private equity hedge funds which are highly leveraged and valuations

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Speaker 2: that are stretched. So it is a combination that really

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Speaker 2: can get you know, things can get pretty tenuous if

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Speaker 2: we have major shocks of the kind we're looking at

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Speaker 2: right now. And as I said, we've just had the

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Speaker 2: biggest oil shock in history. And you know, thankfully our

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Speaker 2: economies are not as dependent on oil as was in

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Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies, and therefore we could weather more of

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Speaker 2: it now than we did back then. But this is

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Speaker 2: a huge, major event to the global economy.

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Speaker 3: I want to bounce off what you were just saying

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Speaker 3: about the war and its effect on the global economy,

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Speaker 3: because even a long war, would that have a limited

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Speaker 3: consequence for global GDP or will there be longer term

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Speaker 3: damage done?

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Speaker 2: A lot depends upon how long oil prices stay high. Right,

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Speaker 2: had come down to oround eighty five yesterday and now

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Speaker 2: then it shot back up to one hundred and now

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Speaker 2: covering around ninety six. So you know, coming into twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six, the assumption was that twenty twenty six would

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Speaker 2: be a year when oil prices would average sixty five

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel. Right, I think in the best case scenario,

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Speaker 2: we're looking at it averaging now seventy five dollars a barrel,

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Speaker 2: which just from the oil channel shaves off about zero

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Speaker 2: point one two point two percentage point of global growth.

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Speaker 2: But this continues, and I don't think this will requires

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Speaker 2: We're not talking necessarily that everything gets sorted out in

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Speaker 2: a week. But if this continues well past a few weeks,

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Speaker 2: and we're looking at now average for the year hitting

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Speaker 2: eighty five, now that's beginning to shave off like zero

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Speaker 2: point three percentage point to global growth point four percentage point,

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Speaker 2: and global inflation starts going up by fifty basis point

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Speaker 2: sixty basis points. So this needs a solution relatively soon.

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Speaker 2: Otherwise we're all looking at countries around the world dealing

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Speaker 2: with many countries dealing with statuflationary shocks.

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Speaker 3: What about emerging economies, they would be vulnerable here to

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Speaker 3: persistent high energy prices, right.

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Speaker 2: Emerging markets have especially the ones of course that are importers.

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Speaker 2: I mean other countries who are exporters benefit from the

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Speaker 2: higher oil prices. But the ones that are importers, and

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Speaker 2: these include you know, India, many of the East Asian economies.

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Speaker 2: Of course, China also is a big importer of energy.

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Speaker 2: Do they have big strategic reserves, so they're kind of

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Speaker 2: a little more insulated. But yes, so they tend to

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Speaker 2: be importers. They also are much more energy dependent. Their

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Speaker 2: economic output is much more energy dependent than the rich

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Speaker 2: nations of the world are. And we've also seen the

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Speaker 2: dollar appreciate. So it's a combination of oil prices going

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Speaker 2: up and the dollar appreciating, and that's leading to really scarcity.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we seen rationing in many emerging countries around

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Speaker 2: the world. It's not that you can simply pass through

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Speaker 2: very high point prices.

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Speaker 1: An exceptional day for Bloomberg Surveillance. Edward Morse was with

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Speaker 1: us earlier. Charles Canter of Newburger Berman as well. In

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Speaker 1: our We're Honored with Gutik Openhath, where there's the former

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Speaker 1: International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director holding court at Harvard

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Speaker 1: Economics after her sojourn of public service. Gita, I look

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Speaker 1: at where we are, and my answer is currency is

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Speaker 1: the litmus paper of the system. Are the traditional dynamics

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Speaker 1: of foreign ext change in play now or is there

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Speaker 1: a new regime we have to get used to.

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Speaker 2: I think this episode has told us that the traditional

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Speaker 2: regime sustains. There have been a lot of questions about

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Speaker 2: the dollars dominance and whether we've seen some sort of

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Speaker 2: financial decision making shifts sufficiently in the world that things

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Speaker 2: are going to behave differently. But what we saw right

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Speaker 2: at the onset of the war, whether there was a

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Speaker 2: Hue spike and uncertainty, was it the dollar strength and

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Speaker 2: relates to pretty much all other currencies in the world.

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Speaker 2: Capital flows to emerging markets didn't. You didn't see a

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Speaker 2: whole scale reversal, but you saw lesser flows going into

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Speaker 2: emerging markets and their currency is depreciated. The US stock

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Speaker 2: market held it better than other countries also because I

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Speaker 2: mean frankly, US being a bigger net energy exporter makes

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Speaker 2: it less of a slight creationy shop for the US

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Speaker 2: than for many other countries.

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Speaker 1: In the world. Doctor Copinett, I think of my great

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Speaker 1: mentor at LC Meg to say, who we lost recently,

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Speaker 1: the work of Ragarajan at Chicago and your work as well.

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Speaker 1: And India is a balance and full crome point between

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Speaker 1: all these global tensions. Is there a new India now

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Speaker 1: or is it a traditional relationship in India with China,

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Speaker 1: with Russia and with America.

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Speaker 2: I think the word is complicated. It's really complicated at

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Speaker 2: this point in time. What good news is that India's

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Speaker 2: economy is growing strongly from internal demand and from internal

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Speaker 2: sources or that's pushing growth, you know, the build out

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Speaker 2: on infrastructure, the digital payment system. There is good growth

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Speaker 2: momentum coming from within India. What they have had to do,

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Speaker 2: which I think is actually positive over the last year,

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Speaker 2: is to go out and make more trade deals with

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Speaker 2: other countries. They just did that with the European Union,

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Speaker 2: but they also did that previously with the UK. I

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Speaker 2: think that's a good thing. I think it helps for

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Speaker 2: India to bring its tap a freight down and they're

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Speaker 2: going to have to keep this up. It's a complicated world.

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Speaker 2: It's people are unsure about who their friends are and

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Speaker 2: for how.

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Speaker 1: Long right now. Second headline coming out of Iran. This

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Speaker 1: is from some form of Iran TV. This is published

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg It's not speculation quote. Iran says it

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Speaker 1: began new wave of missile launches on Israel. Buttre's up

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Speaker 1: against the headline of about twenty years ago. Brent crude

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Speaker 1: ninety eight dollars thirty two cents. Alexis Christopherus with Gidy

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Speaker 1: Gopinett of Harvard.

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Speaker 3: So, you know, what about the beneficiaries or the winners.

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Speaker 3: And I guess I hate to use the word winners

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Speaker 3: in war because I don't think there're any winners in war.

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Speaker 3: But when you're talking about large net energy exporters outside

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Speaker 3: the Gulf, are they going to be benefiting? And I'm

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Speaker 3: thinking Norway, you know, Russia, of course, Canada, Yes.

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Speaker 2: Certainly, these absolutely, these countries benefit from oil being at

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Speaker 2: one hundred dollars a barrel. That's a huge windfall that

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Speaker 2: you know, it's very helpful. And I would say for

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Speaker 2: Russia right now, this is great because they could really

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Speaker 2: use the money that they're getting from their oil sales.

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Speaker 2: When oil was at sixty five dollars a barrel, it

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Speaker 2: was getting really hard for their economy and you could

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Speaker 2: see the strains. One hundred dollars a barrel helps them.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: That said, if this now morphs into a more broader

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Speaker 2: financial crisis because of growth dropping everywhere, inflation going up,

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Speaker 2: we're already it's kind of clear we're moving into a

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Speaker 2: much more tighter monetary policies stance everywhere in the world

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Speaker 2: relative to what it would have been in the absence

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Speaker 2: of this massive oil price shock. You know that combination

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Speaker 2: is never good for the world as a whole, for

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Speaker 2: pretty much all countries.

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Speaker 1: Can I do an audible?

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Speaker 2: Please do?

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Speaker 1: I'm going to do a terrible time audible with geta Gopinath.

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Speaker 1: So we're on stage in Marrakesh and there's like planes

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Speaker 1: flying over. It's a tent. There's like eight hundred one

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Speaker 1: thousand people in there. You know, Geita is there. I

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Speaker 1: think I can't remember the details. I think substituting for uh,

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Speaker 1: the managing director because she had to go see the

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Speaker 1: King of Morocco or whatever. In Christine Laguard's there and

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Speaker 1: a bunch of other worthies And I never got this

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Speaker 1: question into Geita gopinazh. So we're going to do it

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Speaker 1: right now. Get to gopinaz You came out of Princeton

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Speaker 1: Holding Court at Harvard, Ken, Rogoff, and BERNANKI did part

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Speaker 1: of your PhD. I want you to explain the impact

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Speaker 1: of the Nobel Laureate Claudia Golden on economics. You and

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Speaker 1: I never got to talk about this. We're going to

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Speaker 1: do it this morning. Tell me what Professor Golden did

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Speaker 1: in labor economics, in our behavior in our society that

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Speaker 1: was so important.

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Speaker 2: Claudia, who won the Nobel Prize for her work recently

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Speaker 2: and was long over you, basically total brought us, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: brought us gender economics, which is to basically point out

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Speaker 2: out that there are salient differences between how women and

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Speaker 2: men participate in the labor force, what they get paid,

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Speaker 2: why they get paid differently, the importance of family and

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Speaker 2: child rearing, which has an impact on women, and it's

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Speaker 2: hugely important because for multiple reasons, besides the fact that

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Speaker 2: we all want to live in a society where you

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Speaker 2: get rewarded for your skills and talents at a fair level,

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Speaker 2: we're in a situation where worldwide fertility rates have come

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Speaker 2: down and you cannot fix that problem without recognizing that

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Speaker 2: it is tied to how women engage with the labor

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Speaker 2: force and what it takes. And if by having a

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Speaker 2: child you are restricted and that impedes you because you

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Speaker 2: get very little support from your partner to be able

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Speaker 2: to engage in work. You know, the incentives to do

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Speaker 2: that get damp, and so you know it's her contributions

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Speaker 2: have been tremendous and Tom, I think we have to

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Speaker 2: keep in mind that for a long time. It was

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Speaker 2: not cool to be working on you know, gender issues.

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Speaker 2: When I say a long time is when Claudia was

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Speaker 2: much younger. At that time, as an economist, you wanted

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Speaker 2: to be working on you know, monetary policy, macro policy,

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Speaker 2: those were the big topics to focus on. So for

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Speaker 2: Claudia to go against the wind and say no, I'm

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Speaker 2: actually going to work about gender and women in the workplace, right,

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Speaker 2: that was a huge you know, stepping out of line

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Speaker 2: and courders to help for that.

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Speaker 1: One quick question, get to go. But as we got

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Speaker 1: to go with the rant in the news. But I

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Speaker 1: have to ask, are you letting your students use AI?

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Speaker 1: Is AI constructives tool in the classroom?

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Speaker 2: Yes? Right now I'm teaching a class to pH d

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Speaker 2: students and I think that they should absolutely use AI

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Speaker 2: in a particular way. But at the same time, I

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Speaker 2: want to make sure that they're also developing their own

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Speaker 2: cognitive skills. I think the risk is that we're going

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Speaker 2: to outsource everything to a smarter friend and in the

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Speaker 2: end don't learn anything. So we have to strike the

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Speaker 2: balance right one.

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Speaker 1: Hundred percent agree. Thank you so much for that. Professor

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Speaker 1: Gopinath at Harvard University Republic Service for India and America.

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Speaker 1: Noted at the International Monetary Fund