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Speaker 1: guarantee game time. Hi everybody, how about that? I think
Speaker 1: we watched two really good football teams, both with improved defenses,
Speaker 1: and neither played particularly well tonight. So starters over the
Speaker 1: last few years are playing fewer snaps in preseason, and
Speaker 1: I thought that was fairly evident. We've seen that in
Speaker 1: college football. With a transfer portal, you know, you don't
Speaker 1: have a preseason. In college football, it can get choppy.
Speaker 1: Even for the great teams like Ohio State, these are
Speaker 1: much better defenses. Kansas City relied on a lot of
Speaker 1: young players. They didn't have Chris Jones, and I yet
Speaker 1: generated a really good pass rush, batted down several Jared
Speaker 1: Goff throws, including a crucial fourth and two late. Now
Speaker 1: they lost the game, but that was a big moment,
Speaker 1: so you know, and they've got you know, Nick Bolton's
Speaker 1: a tremendous young linebacker. They've got some young studs in
Speaker 1: the secondary. So if you're if you're a Kansas City
Speaker 1: that's a pretty good defensive performance because the Lions are
Speaker 1: going to light some people up that old line goff
Speaker 1: Omar on Saint Brown running game. Detroit's going to drop
Speaker 1: some thirty bombs on people. And I thought Kansas City's defense,
Speaker 1: all those young players, another year in camp, another off
Speaker 1: season under spags, I thought the Chiefs defense was really
Speaker 1: impressive and generated against a great O line, a pretty
Speaker 1: consistent pass rush without Chris Jones. So for Kansas City,
Speaker 1: it all is not lost. You didn't have Kelsey, you
Speaker 1: didn't have Chris Jones, and you know you missed Kelsey.
Speaker 1: There's one percent of the players in this league are
Speaker 1: worth I mean, take out quarterbacks. There may be twenty
Speaker 1: players in this league that are worth a point to
Speaker 1: a point and a half, and Travis Kelsey's one of them.
Speaker 1: And when you lose a Tyreek kill, as you justus
Speaker 1: ms Schuster, Travis Kelcey becomes even more crucial. I mean,
Speaker 1: how many passes did Tony drop tonight? How many passes
Speaker 1: did Kansas City drop tonight? You really, I mean Travis
Speaker 1: Kelsey would have gotten a dozen thirteen, fourteen targets, made
Speaker 1: nine to ten catches, probably for over one hundred yards.
Speaker 1: So they really missed Travis Kelcey tonight. His ball security,
Speaker 1: his hands, his dependability on big third down plays. And
Speaker 1: that's not an excuse. That's probably the difference in the ballgame.
Speaker 1: Kelsey is that much of a security blanket in key spots.
Speaker 1: It's like Brady and Gronk. He just is great great players, Edelman, Gronk.
Speaker 1: How big were they in playoff games? Big games on
Speaker 1: third down or fourth down in the red zone for
Speaker 1: top Brady even great players have players they depend on.
Speaker 1: Let's talk to Troy. I didn't think they played necessarily
Speaker 1: that great. I thought their O line struggled to pass protect.
Speaker 1: I didn't think they could generate much of a run
Speaker 1: game early, and that's for the good old line. But again,
Speaker 1: it's the cohesion is very difficult. You're on the road,
Speaker 1: it's loud. Kansas City played very well defensively upfront. Spags
Speaker 1: is a great defensive coordinator, So I thought the Lions
Speaker 1: have addressed I mean they've really the last two drafts,
Speaker 1: the Lions know, you know, most of their talent was
Speaker 1: on the offensive side, so their front office has done
Speaker 1: a good job. Branch had to pick six. Hutchison's a
Speaker 1: tremendous It's not TJ Watt yet, but he is a
Speaker 1: tremendous He's not a Bosa yet, but he is excellent,
Speaker 1: consistent pass rusher, great motor. Never stops out of Michigan.
Speaker 1: So if you're if you're the Lions tonight, if I'm
Speaker 1: a Lions fan, my take is, I didn't think we
Speaker 1: even played that great in the first half. I thought
Speaker 1: where you saw the Lion's strength is as the game
Speaker 1: wore on that offensive line. They had that nine play
Speaker 1: drive in the fourth quarter, then they had they picked
Speaker 1: up a first down late trying to kill the clock.
Speaker 1: That's just you know these games. Defenses early in games,
Speaker 1: Kansas City consistent pass rush, young defense. All of a
Speaker 1: sudden that nine play drive, goff made a couple of
Speaker 1: big throws. They start and it was a power run game.
Speaker 1: It was clever. They had different looks, but it was
Speaker 1: not a finesse run game. On that nine play drive.
Speaker 1: It was a power run game. And you could see
Speaker 1: it felt a little bit like to me that O
Speaker 1: line kind of exerted its power a little bit in
Speaker 1: that drive. Again, I think two really good teams to
Speaker 1: clearly improve defenses, neither played particularly well. So if you're
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Travis Kelcey was clearly missed. Chris Jones didn't
Speaker 1: feel like he was, but Travis Kelsey was clearly missed
Speaker 1: with all the drops. And I think if you look
Speaker 1: at Detroit, we didn't play particularly well. Couldn't some mishaps
Speaker 1: in the first half. I didn't even think. I know
Speaker 1: everybody loves the OC Ben Johnson for the Lions, I
Speaker 1: didn't love his play calling in certain spots the night
Speaker 1: I really didn't. On fourth and two in the fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: I'm like, I wear my notes here. Yeah, fourth and two,
Speaker 1: there's a minute or so, a minute and a half,
Speaker 1: two minutes left, maybe two and a half. Run the ball.
Speaker 1: You just had a nine play power run drive like,
Speaker 1: run the ball. They didn't pass batted down. So I
Speaker 1: think Detroit is flying home tonight thinking Dan campbell'son in
Speaker 1: that locker room. Guys, this was not flawless football. We
Speaker 1: just beat the World Champs on the road. We didn't
Speaker 1: play that great in spots. Our pass protection wasn't great,
Speaker 1: couldn't run the first ball of football in the first
Speaker 1: half goff a lot of passes batted down. But I
Speaker 1: think what you saw with that fake punt early in
Speaker 1: the game, I think Detroit came in with a mindset,
Speaker 1: we're taking big swings here. Ok, We're not playing the
Speaker 1: World Champs and going conservative. To beat Mahomes, got to
Speaker 1: take a league, got to take big cuts, big swings.
Speaker 1: Can't play not to lose. I mean, how many times
Speaker 1: have we seen that with Mahomes. You got to play
Speaker 1: aggressive football. And so they came in with an attitude
Speaker 1: and I think that's what Dan Campbell has provided do
Speaker 1: I think he's schematically brilliant. Well, he's built a very
Speaker 1: good staff, so he knows people. That's clear. The front
Speaker 1: office has done a really good job to build this
Speaker 1: O line and the defense up over the last couple
Speaker 1: of years. You know, when I do these hits, everybody
Speaker 1: always feels good about the winning team. If I'm Detroit,
Speaker 1: we didn't play that great and we won in Kansas City.
Speaker 1: I think Travis Kelsey was missed. I mean, man, a
Speaker 1: lot of drops. Now. The other thing, I don't think
Speaker 1: Mahomes played particularly well. I thought he was behind. The
Speaker 1: timing was off. This is the downside to not playing
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the preseason much. I thought Mahomes was really
Speaker 1: hit and miss. I mean he's short, hot and deep ball.
Speaker 1: He never does that behind on two or three guys. Now,
Speaker 1: the drops didn't help. But you know, again, when you
Speaker 1: don't have your security blanket, your Edelman or your Gronk
Speaker 1: for Brady, you're forcing stuff. The timing's not perfect. So
Speaker 1: you have young guys. Sky Moore's a young guy. I
Speaker 1: don't have Kelsey. I didn't play much in the preseason.
Speaker 1: This is what it looks like. So it's a go
Speaker 1: either way game. The Lions get that big drive, that
Speaker 1: nine play drive late wasn't pretty, was not an artistic masterpiece.
Speaker 1: I don't think either team played particularly well, but a
Speaker 1: tip of the captain of the Lions. Good for them.
Speaker 1: I had him winning the NFC North. I got my team.
Speaker 1: I think in that division, amongst the Bears, the Packers,
Speaker 1: and the Vikings, I think they have the best offensive line.
Speaker 1: I think the edge Green Bay for the best offensive line.
Speaker 1: I think Goff is better than Kirk Cousins, not as athletic,
Speaker 1: but a better pocket guy than Justin Fields, better than
Speaker 1: Jordan love So. I think the old line and the quarterback.
Speaker 1: I think the Lions have the best groups in their division,
Speaker 1: and I think their defense is improved. They've branch Hutchison,
Speaker 1: They've hitt in a couple guys, so it's an exciting time.
Speaker 1: It's My wife is from Michigan. She doesn't follow sports
Speaker 1: or care about it, but she knows. She knows about
Speaker 1: the Lions, and she knows about Michigan football. So good
Speaker 1: for Detroit. And they've had some lean decades, but it
Speaker 1: felt big. It felt big for them, and I like
Speaker 1: the way Detroit won. I liked that nine play drive
Speaker 1: in the second half. That's just Dan Campbell. That's that's
Speaker 1: fite kneecaps. That's big, tough, physical power running. Nice w
Speaker 1: We're here, baby, football's here. We're going to bring in
Speaker 1: Jamack of the Herd Jason McIntyre to play a new
Speaker 1: game every week called the Vaulted Challenge. Okay, so we're
Speaker 1: excited to be used the Vaulted app. It's spelled v
Speaker 1: l ted. Vaulted is a place where you can store
Speaker 1: your sports predictions and participate in cash prize pools without
Speaker 1: any entry fee. How cool is that you can prove
Speaker 1: you're smarter than all your friends using the Vaulted Challenge App.
Speaker 1: I'm issuing three challenges to Jmack around this weekend's game.
Speaker 1: He can either accept or reject my Vaulted Challenge. So
Speaker 1: here we go. My prediction Kenny Pickett throws for more
Speaker 1: yards than Brock Purty of San Francisco. I'm risking three units.
Speaker 1: Agree or disagree.
Speaker 2: I disagree, Colin. I like Brock Purty in this spot.
Speaker 2: I know it's a road game. We don't know the
Speaker 2: status of George Kittle, but this is a this is
Speaker 2: a game where he's gonna have to put the ball
Speaker 2: up in the air.
Speaker 1: I think thirty thirty.
Speaker 2: Five pass attempts because I think they're gonna be playing
Speaker 2: from behind, and I don't think they're gonna be able
Speaker 2: to run on this nasty Pittsburgh defensive front. I think
Speaker 2: this is probably a two hundred and fifty yard passing
Speaker 2: game for Perdy, and I don't know that Pickle will
Speaker 2: get there, mostly because the defense will do the job.
Speaker 2: I like Pittsburgh in the game, and I like Purdy
Speaker 2: through the air.
Speaker 1: Next up, Texans Ravens. I predict Lamar Jackson has more
Speaker 1: total touchdowns than the entire Texans offense. I'm risking seven
Speaker 1: units on this one. Agree or disagree.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna agree with you there. I'm surprised it
Speaker 2: wasn't ten units. Goodness gracious, I mean Lamar, this could
Speaker 2: be a bloodbath. I don't see the Texans stopping Lamar.
Speaker 2: He's never had this many weapons. Odell Beckham's a flower
Speaker 2: like they really are in line here to put up
Speaker 2: forty and make a statement. We've got a new offensive coordinator,
Speaker 2: We're moving on to a new era. And Texans and
Speaker 2: Damiico Ryans. I'm sorry, it's an Uphill Challenge. You don't
Speaker 2: have the forty nine ers defense you had last year.
Speaker 1: Final Challenge Packers Bears. I'm gonna predict Justin Fields, Chicago
Speaker 1: quarterback has more rushing yards than Aaron Jones, the top
Speaker 1: running back for Green Bay. I'm risking two units. Agree
Speaker 1: or disagree.
Speaker 2: Smells like a trap. I'm gonna go ahead and disagree
Speaker 2: with you, Colin. I think this is an Aaron Jones game.
Speaker 2: If you've seen the injury reports, Romeo Dobbs and Christian
Speaker 2: Watson are like, we don't know that they're not practicing
Speaker 2: earlier in the week. It's like how healthy are they?
Speaker 2: Then you look at the weapons outside and Jordan Love
Speaker 2: is not gonna have many. I think this is a
Speaker 2: heavy Aaron Jones game, probably with a dose of mister
Speaker 2: Dylan behind him. I think Justin Fields, we know what
Speaker 2: he can do getting loose, but all signs indicate Fields
Speaker 2: is gonna want to win from the pocket this year.
Speaker 2: He can't take the beating he took last year. So
Speaker 2: I think Field's rushing yards probably diminished a little bit.
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones I got them on all my fantasy teams.
Speaker 2: This is probably a one twenty five one to fifty
Speaker 2: game from Aaron Jones. All right, Colin, my first challenge
Speaker 2: to you is that Baker Mayfield, your favorite quarterback, will
Speaker 2: have more passing yards than Kirk Cousins. I'm risking four
Speaker 2: units on this one. Agree or disagree?
Speaker 1: I agree. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown no ability
Speaker 1: in the last two years to run the football. Baker's
Speaker 1: going to be forced to throw. I like their weapons.
Speaker 1: This is one of those games that I don't like
Speaker 1: Tampa to win. I think they'll trail. I think they'll
Speaker 1: have to throw. I think they'll have no run game.
Speaker 1: I agree. Hmm interesting.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to my next one, Texans Ravens CJ.
Speaker 2: Stroud's debut. I predict he will have less than two
Speaker 2: touchdown passes. I'm risking only one unit here because this,
Speaker 2: like I said earlier, could be a blood bath and
Speaker 2: he's airing it out. Would you agree or disagree?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna disagree because I think they'll trail and have
Speaker 1: to throw the ball. Ravens in a prevent defense late
Speaker 1: and CJ will actually get those you know, classic last
Speaker 1: two to three drive yards and touchdowns to elevate his
Speaker 1: overall numbers. I think they trail. I think it could
Speaker 1: be ugly. He'll get a lot of those padded stats
Speaker 1: that don't mean much. But I disagree. Garbage time.
Speaker 2: All right, we'll wrap up with my final prediction. Most
Speaker 2: confident here. Russell Wilson has more than two hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty five and a half passing yards against the Raiders.
Speaker 2: I'm winning nine units on this one. Colin a lot
Speaker 2: of confidence.
Speaker 1: Agree or disagree? I agree, and I think Denver wins,
Speaker 1: and probably comfortably. Denver at home. Sean Payton was Coach
Speaker 1: of the Year with the Saints his first year. He
Speaker 1: figures stuff out quickly. I work with him in TV.
Speaker 1: He figures stuff out quickly. Raiders are a bit of
Speaker 1: a mess. The Chandler Jones drama, I don't love, don't
Speaker 1: love ownership, new front Office. I agree. I think Russell
Speaker 1: new slimmer, Russell running more play action Russell. I think
Speaker 1: he has a pretty good day. If you want to
Speaker 1: prove you're smarter than all your friends, go download the
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Speaker 1: restrictions apply well. For the last several years, it has
Speaker 1: been hopefully a part of your gaming habits where I
Speaker 1: play appropriately the square. Though last year I hit fifty
Speaker 1: five to fifty six percent of my games and had
Speaker 1: a winning opening week, which I'm not prone to do
Speaker 1: because I tend to be like a boxer. I feel
Speaker 1: out the opposition, and so my Week one history is
Speaker 1: pretty lame and the sharp is as olways Chad Milman,
Speaker 1: the Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings,
Speaker 1: our new partner. So let's just I'm gonna just ease
Speaker 1: my way into it. You know, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: things I'll tell you. One of my I talked about
Speaker 1: this all off season, and I don't know if I'm
Speaker 1: going to make it a bet. But I said, Shane
Speaker 1: Steikin's great. I've seen him work magic with two young quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: and I have no idea, nor does Jacksonville know what
Speaker 1: the hell they're getting from Anthony Richardson. I'm not going
Speaker 1: to make that one of my picks. But a rivalry game,
Speaker 1: you know we're going to be stunned by something week one,
Speaker 1: So I just want a feeler on that because I
Speaker 1: think Jacksonville is coming in with pressure and has no
Speaker 1: idea what they're getting. I think for three hours you
Speaker 1: can upset people when they it's just the element of surprise.
Speaker 3: What would you say, I'd say you don't need a
Speaker 3: couple of weeks to feel things out right now, Colin,
Speaker 3: you are as sharp as a knife. The only reason
Speaker 3: I haven't done is yet is because Jacksonville is such
Speaker 3: a public team that I know money is going to
Speaker 3: come in on them during the weekend, and by Sunday
Speaker 3: I might get a better number. I might get Indianapolis
Speaker 3: plus five and a half plus six. So I'm just
Speaker 3: waiting for that. But look, in previous years, we've seen this.
Speaker 3: Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis in Week one and everybody knows you're
Speaker 3: gonna bet on Indianapolis, but you bet on Jacksonville because
Speaker 3: they're the worst team and they're getting huge number. It's
Speaker 3: the only game they win all year, and then Indianapolis
Speaker 3: turns around and is fine. Now the situation is reversed.
Speaker 3: Jacksonville is everybody's darling. They love Trevor Lawrence. This is
Speaker 3: a terrible offensive line, maybe one of the worst offensive
Speaker 3: lines in the end, and they're without Cam Robinson for
Speaker 3: the first four weeks of the year. This is going
Speaker 3: to be Indianapolis's one of their best chances to win.
Speaker 3: So I love, love, love Indie as an underdog. Here
Speaker 3: all right, well.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet that game. I just decided. Okay, here's
Speaker 1: another one. So I'm gonna say something, and you are
Speaker 1: going to tell your friends off air. He doesn't know
Speaker 1: what he's talking about. But here's my theory, because you
Speaker 1: would not be rude. But I've always had this thing
Speaker 1: about the number four embedding. So when I see three
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm gonna take the hook in most instances,
Speaker 1: but four is different. Vegas and the wise guys are
Speaker 1: telling you we don't need the hook. The favorites, the
Speaker 1: better team. So Sean Payton won Coach of the Year
Speaker 1: first year in New Orleans. His shit works fast, and
Speaker 1: we don't doubt the talent here, it's just the culture.
Speaker 1: Here's what I saw. Russell Wilson loses weight by the
Speaker 1: second preseason game. They do one series and Sean's like, Okay,
Speaker 1: seen enough, I'm not showing you anything else. I think, Sean,
Speaker 1: remember the first preseason game. They've played four series in
Speaker 1: one week. All of a sudden, that next series, You're like, oh,
Speaker 1: that looks good. Sean closed the books. We're done. I
Speaker 1: think Denver comes out. They're great. Opening weeks in the altitude.
Speaker 1: They beat the desert team Denver minus four Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think your instincts are all right. I love Denver.
Speaker 3: I one of my biggest bets is Denver to win
Speaker 3: the AFC West. I also, listen, you have to think
Speaker 3: about what you just said, right, Think about Sean Payton.
Speaker 3: Think about a defense. Think about a defense that gave
Speaker 3: up more than twenty points once in the first eleven
Speaker 3: weeks of the year. They could have won so many
Speaker 3: games if their offense could have scored two and a
Speaker 3: half touchdowns in the first eleven games of the year.
Speaker 3: They lost multiple games in overtime. It wasn't until the
Speaker 3: end of the year, where they had completely lost themselves
Speaker 3: that their defense started to fade a little bit. They've
Speaker 3: got really good skill position players. You've got to believe
Speaker 3: that Sean Payton is worth several wins on top of
Speaker 3: what they did last year. Certainly like them at over
Speaker 3: eight and a half wins. And why not, it's not
Speaker 3: going to be the Kansas City Show every single year
Speaker 3: in the AFC West, and there's always a team eighteen
Speaker 3: of the past twenty years, Colin, a team goes from
Speaker 3: worse to first in the division? Why not Denver. So
Speaker 3: all that said, this game is kind of a pass
Speaker 3: for me because I don't like the number. I think
Speaker 3: four is actually too much, and you're talking about a
Speaker 3: divisional game, first game of the year. There's a couple
Speaker 3: spots here where I like the favorite a lot, but
Speaker 3: I don't like the number in these scenarios, and this
Speaker 3: is one of those games.
Speaker 1: All Right, I'm gonna go to the one o'clock window.
Speaker 1: This has been much discussed in the HERD. I don't
Speaker 1: know if you've heard, but it's a very popular show.
Speaker 3: Nationally.
Speaker 1: The kids adore it, tell me about it. The old
Speaker 1: people tolerate it. So yeah, I'm gonna take Pittsburgh plus
Speaker 1: the points. I don't love DraftKings has it at plus two.
Speaker 1: I like two point five. I like two and a half. Okay,
Speaker 1: but when TJ wats healthy, they win. Mike Tomlin is
Speaker 1: as good a coach as the league has. When he's
Speaker 1: backed into a corner, he's playing a more talented team.
Speaker 1: Everybody's disrespecting Kenny Pickett's I don't like Tomlin as a favorite,
Speaker 1: but as a home dog. I remember a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago when he went to Buffalo and they walked
Speaker 1: in there with an old big bend. I'm like, what
Speaker 1: did I just watch? I'm gonna take the points with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Canny Pickett once at the end of the year he
Speaker 1: moved the chains. What do you think, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: You're so freaking sharp on this colin on the Favorites podcast,
Speaker 3: which you know, well, this was my executive decision, meaning
Speaker 3: it's a must bet game. I love Pittsburgh here truth
Speaker 3: be told. I loved Pittsburgh when the lines opened in
Speaker 3: I don't know May or June, and they were three
Speaker 3: point underdogs at home. I think Kenny Bickett is a baller.
Speaker 3: I love him as a quarterback for this team San Francisco. Look,
Speaker 3: they're going to be a team that everyone loves to
Speaker 3: potentially make the Super Bowl as a road favorite. Kyle
Speaker 3: Shanahan is not great, just ten and eleven against the spread.
Speaker 3: But what you said about Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin is
Speaker 3: the best underdog coach in the past twenty years, literally
Speaker 3: the most profitable underdog coach in the past twenty years.
Speaker 3: They are fifty three thirty and four as an underdog
Speaker 3: under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is so I love this team.
Speaker 3: I kind of love them outright, like Tomlin does really well.
Speaker 3: He's twenty nineteen and covering it like as a outright
Speaker 3: as an underdog. So this is a great game to bet. Also,
Speaker 3: let me say one thing. TJ. Watt huge game changer.
Speaker 3: Don't forget he was injured for a lot of the
Speaker 3: season last year. Right eight and two straight up and
Speaker 3: against the spread. Pittsburgh is when TJ. Watt is on
Speaker 3: the field last year, so this is a much different
Speaker 3: team with TJ. Watt. You got it back, You got
Speaker 3: it back Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Here as a young child, the kids in the neighborhood
Speaker 1: would call me contrarian Colin. I'm gonna take New York
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Here's why. Daniel Jones may
Speaker 1: have a ceiling, but he doesn't lose you games. He
Speaker 1: had five picks. He's a bigger, stronger, more athletic version
Speaker 1: of Alex Smith. There's a ceiling, but in year two
Speaker 1: with Brian Dable, they've added an element of Darren Waller.
Speaker 1: They're now very good at tackle both sides. Their second
Speaker 1: round pick could be the best young center in the game.
Speaker 1: Barkley's in house. I like their defensive front kevon Thiebaudo
Speaker 1: a second year. I don't like Dallas's head coach. I'm
Speaker 1: not in love with the offensive line coach. Their best
Speaker 1: coach is their defensive coordinator, and Dak has become a
Speaker 1: pocket passer. That's what he is now. Second year Brian
Speaker 1: Dable at home, the world loves Dallas. I don't think
Speaker 1: New York is a great team, but I don't see
Speaker 1: them going off a cliff with Brian Dable. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take three and a half and New York Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: Totally sharp, You're making the exact right move. I know
Speaker 3: that New York is a better team, but close spread
Speaker 3: division rivals. What's really interesting about New York, and there's
Speaker 3: a similarity with Minnesota. The narrative for both teams is
Speaker 3: that they won a lot of close games. The narrative
Speaker 3: for Minnesota is that there's going to be huge regression
Speaker 3: that they will not be able to do the same thing.
Speaker 3: The narrative for New York is that Brian Dabel is
Speaker 3: such a good coach. A lot of a lot of
Speaker 3: the success they had is repeatable, and we're all sort
Speaker 3: of falling into that trap a little bit that he
Speaker 3: is so good he will win his team games in
Speaker 3: ways that other coaches can't. I firmly believe that New
Speaker 3: York is the right side in this game because of
Speaker 3: Brian Dable, because of some of the things you just
Speaker 3: said about the talent they've added. It'll be very interesting
Speaker 3: to see if this narrative hold and if he is
Speaker 3: good enough to keep this team in close games the
Speaker 3: way he did last year.
Speaker 1: It's a big game, so let's play it.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 1: I don't love that von Miller is out for Buffalo,
Speaker 1: and I don't love that Leslie Frasier just decided to
Speaker 1: leave the franchise. But Buffalo is well coached. Josh Allen
Speaker 1: is in his prime. You don't have to love either
Speaker 1: offensive line, but old quarterbacks bad at tackle is a
Speaker 1: real concern. We can say we don't like this Defaon
Speaker 1: Diggs drama. We know it's gonna be fine week one. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're not worried about a blow up now. It was
Speaker 1: the end of last year. I get a quarterback in
Speaker 1: his prime. They got the best tight end in the draft.
Speaker 1: They're healthy outside of Von Miller. I don't like when
Speaker 1: Tom Brady went to Tampa. What did he say? Tristan
Speaker 1: Wurf's stafford fell apart when the O line did. Young
Speaker 1: quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Herbert set rookie records
Speaker 1: with a terrible old line. I think Aaron's gonna get
Speaker 1: prickly really fast. This is a bad old line. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take Buffalo minus two and a half sharper square square.
Speaker 3: This is a bad spot. This is a bad spot
Speaker 3: for Buffalo, and it's a good spot for New York.
Speaker 3: And I'll preface all of what I'm going to say
Speaker 3: by saying I have Buffalo going to the super Bowl,
Speaker 3: and I am fading New York every chance I get.
Speaker 3: If it's the right spot. This is not the right spot.
Speaker 3: I think it's one of the I think in a
Speaker 3: week we're gonna love Buffalo and we're gonna hate New York.
Speaker 3: But one thing New York has going for it. A.
Speaker 3: It's at home, prime time. Aaron Rodgers, if he's ever
Speaker 3: going to shine, this is the spot. B. They've got
Speaker 3: a tremendous defensive line. Buffalo's offensive line is just not
Speaker 3: that good. And so while Josh Allen is incredibly athletic
Speaker 3: and in his prime and we'll be able to make
Speaker 3: people miss and cover up people's mistakes, he can't do
Speaker 3: it the whole game against a really good New York defense.
Speaker 3: So this game probably should be closer to pick. And
Speaker 3: you're getting two and a half points of value. We got,
Speaker 3: you know, the podcast and the favorites. We get calls
Speaker 3: from professional betters all the time. This was the game
Speaker 3: they could not wait to hammer. Okay, as Is, you
Speaker 3: did great, though, Colin, you did really good well, Contrarian,
Speaker 3: I don't want you to feel bad about yourself.
Speaker 1: Got that Moniker as a child, Okay.
Speaker 3: Contrarian on the tough you grew up with a lot
Speaker 3: of wise guys that year.
Speaker 1: The tough streets of grayln Washington. Okay, you always convinced
Speaker 1: me of a game to take a lot of people
Speaker 1: like Washington this week, I don't know. Give me the
Speaker 1: game you think I missed? Overlooked?
Speaker 3: How gross do you want to be?
Speaker 1: Oh, this is the game you play. I listen. I
Speaker 1: can be.
Speaker 3: Gross because I could go try to get you to
Speaker 3: take Houston at plus ten. The only no, I.
Speaker 1: Don't want to go by a kid. I can't do it.
Speaker 1: You know. I hate big numbers. I hate big favors.
Speaker 3: I know, but that's that is That is definitely a
Speaker 3: game I'm going to be betting. But how about this?
Speaker 3: And I'm surprised you didn't mention this one? Why not
Speaker 3: Cleveland hosting Cincinnati? Cleveland is another one, similar to Denver.
Speaker 3: I bet Cleveland to win the AFC North. This has
Speaker 3: this team has a top five offensive line, They've got
Speaker 3: a top five defensive line and incredibly talented roster, a
Speaker 3: really good coach. You're betting on Deshaun Watson getting back
Speaker 3: to mid level form. But Joe Burrow he's been injurered
Speaker 3: week one can be challenging. We don't know what we're
Speaker 3: getting out of that team yet they're on the road.
Speaker 3: This is the spot where you find out what kind
Speaker 3: of talent and competition Cleveland can live up to. I
Speaker 3: smash Cleveland, love this spot.
Speaker 1: For Let me throw this one at you, just interested
Speaker 1: in your perspective. We both love Chicago. I'm going to
Speaker 1: stay away from this game. And a lot of people
Speaker 1: like green Bay here. What say you?
Speaker 3: Yeah? The wise guys like green Bay here a lot
Speaker 3: more than they like Chicago. And I think it's they
Speaker 3: liked it and started pounding it when the line was
Speaker 3: at about two and a half. Look, there's been so
Speaker 3: much hype for Chicago. I obviously love Chicago. I'm from there.
Speaker 3: I talk about them often. I'm not convinced that this
Speaker 3: is going to be a team you want to bet
Speaker 3: on early. They've still got a lot of offensive line issues.
Speaker 3: We don't know how accurate Justin fields can be with
Speaker 3: Dj Moore. The defense is atrocious. It's still a team
Speaker 3: to finish three and fourteen, lost ten games in a row,
Speaker 3: like it is not a good spot for them. I
Speaker 3: think there's a lot more to love for a Green
Speaker 3: Bay's roster from top to bottom, and the fact that
Speaker 3: they have seen enough of Jordan Love to feel good
Speaker 3: that he can be someone who can potentially win this
Speaker 3: game outright. So as a short underdog, the professionals are
Speaker 3: back in Green Bay.
Speaker 1: I want to stay away from Miami this year because
Speaker 1: at TUA, I'm staying away mostly.
Speaker 3: I think that's right. I like Los Angeles here. It's
Speaker 3: a tricky game, though it's a really there's a lot
Speaker 3: of tricky games. And the other game. By the way,
Speaker 3: I know we're ending our time here, but we did
Speaker 3: not talk about New England and Philadelphia, which is another game.
Speaker 3: The wise guys love New England.
Speaker 1: So I like New England, but I worry about the
Speaker 1: right side of their old line.
Speaker 3: Listen from everyone who knows more than me, call Cosel.
Speaker 3: Does Cosell care about the right tackle? Does he have
Speaker 3: the right tackle who's filling in? Graded that much below
Speaker 3: the right tackle who's injured? The line moved half a
Speaker 3: point off of that news, So New England is now
Speaker 3: a four point underdog. I would take New England in
Speaker 3: this spot.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not going to have a cocktail. It's Thursday
Speaker 1: game night, so I'll have clarity to sleep on that.
Speaker 1: You may have convinced me on that one. That right tackle,
Speaker 1: that right tackles everything.
Speaker 3: I do what I can. This is why, this is
Speaker 3: why professional betters watch preseason games. People think, oh, why
Speaker 3: would you bet on preseason game? Why would you watch
Speaker 3: preseason Professional betters watch preseason games. I've been in the
Speaker 3: room with them when they're talking about this, because they
Speaker 3: are grading the backup tackle and the backup guard late
Speaker 3: in the second quarter, in the third quarter, all the
Speaker 3: way through to the fourth quarter. Because that does make
Speaker 3: a difference for a lot of teams when it comes
Speaker 3: to betting on them later in the season when you
Speaker 3: start to get banged up. So this is an important
Speaker 3: right tackle. You joke, but it's it's important. But I
Speaker 3: don't think it's going to matter in.
Speaker 1: A professional betters. You know what's different about you. You're
Speaker 1: the only one with a beautiful redhead. He has folks,
Speaker 1: He has a beautiful Yeah, well that would go for
Speaker 1: you too. My wife look like sisters. You very pro
Speaker 1: sports canbeller have beautiful wives. That's just a random generalization.
Speaker 3: By the way, I think they would say, oh, Colin.
Speaker 1: You're being contrarian. Sharper square, all odds provided by draft Kings.
Speaker 1: My friend awesome, See you later. The volume