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Speaker 1: The volume. Football is officially back. No more preseason games.

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Speaker 1: The regular season is here. Listen. We all like watching

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Speaker 1: football on TV, but nothing's better live and in person.

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Speaker 1: redeem code Colin COLN twenty dollars off your first purchase.

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Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Download the game Time The redeem code

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Speaker 1: is Colin. That's my name co l i N twenty

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Speaker 1: the game Time app today, last minute tickets, lowest prices,

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Speaker 1: guarantee game time. Hi everybody, how about that? I think

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Speaker 1: we watched two really good football teams, both with improved defenses,

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Speaker 1: and neither played particularly well tonight. So starters over the

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Speaker 1: last few years are playing fewer snaps in preseason, and

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Speaker 1: I thought that was fairly evident. We've seen that in

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Speaker 1: college football. With a transfer portal, you know, you don't

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Speaker 1: have a preseason. In college football, it can get choppy.

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Speaker 1: Even for the great teams like Ohio State, these are

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Speaker 1: much better defenses. Kansas City relied on a lot of

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Speaker 1: young players. They didn't have Chris Jones, and I yet

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Speaker 1: generated a really good pass rush, batted down several Jared

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Speaker 1: Goff throws, including a crucial fourth and two late. Now

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Speaker 1: they lost the game, but that was a big moment,

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Speaker 1: so you know, and they've got you know, Nick Bolton's

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Speaker 1: a tremendous young linebacker. They've got some young studs in

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Speaker 1: the secondary. So if you're if you're a Kansas City

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Speaker 1: that's a pretty good defensive performance because the Lions are

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Speaker 1: going to light some people up that old line goff

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Speaker 1: Omar on Saint Brown running game. Detroit's going to drop

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Speaker 1: some thirty bombs on people. And I thought Kansas City's defense,

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Speaker 1: all those young players, another year in camp, another off

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Speaker 1: season under spags, I thought the Chiefs defense was really

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Speaker 1: impressive and generated against a great O line, a pretty

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Speaker 1: consistent pass rush without Chris Jones. So for Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: it all is not lost. You didn't have Kelsey, you

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Speaker 1: didn't have Chris Jones, and you know you missed Kelsey.

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Speaker 1: There's one percent of the players in this league are

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Speaker 1: worth I mean, take out quarterbacks. There may be twenty

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Speaker 1: players in this league that are worth a point to

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Speaker 1: a point and a half, and Travis Kelsey's one of them.

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Speaker 1: And when you lose a Tyreek kill, as you justus

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Speaker 1: ms Schuster, Travis Kelcey becomes even more crucial. I mean,

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Speaker 1: how many passes did Tony drop tonight? How many passes

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Speaker 1: did Kansas City drop tonight? You really, I mean Travis

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Speaker 1: Kelsey would have gotten a dozen thirteen, fourteen targets, made

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Speaker 1: nine to ten catches, probably for over one hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: So they really missed Travis Kelcey tonight. His ball security,

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Speaker 1: his hands, his dependability on big third down plays. And

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Speaker 1: that's not an excuse. That's probably the difference in the ballgame.

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Speaker 1: Kelsey is that much of a security blanket in key spots.

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Speaker 1: It's like Brady and Gronk. He just is great great players, Edelman, Gronk.

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Speaker 1: How big were they in playoff games? Big games on

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Speaker 1: third down or fourth down in the red zone for

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Speaker 1: top Brady even great players have players they depend on.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk to Troy. I didn't think they played necessarily

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Speaker 1: that great. I thought their O line struggled to pass protect.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think they could generate much of a run

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Speaker 1: game early, and that's for the good old line. But again,

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Speaker 1: it's the cohesion is very difficult. You're on the road,

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Speaker 1: it's loud. Kansas City played very well defensively upfront. Spags

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Speaker 1: is a great defensive coordinator, So I thought the Lions

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Speaker 1: have addressed I mean they've really the last two drafts,

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Speaker 1: the Lions know, you know, most of their talent was

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Speaker 1: on the offensive side, so their front office has done

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Speaker 1: a good job. Branch had to pick six. Hutchison's a

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Speaker 1: tremendous It's not TJ Watt yet, but he is a

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Speaker 1: tremendous He's not a Bosa yet, but he is excellent,

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Speaker 1: consistent pass rusher, great motor. Never stops out of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: So if you're if you're the Lions tonight, if I'm

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Speaker 1: a Lions fan, my take is, I didn't think we

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Speaker 1: even played that great in the first half. I thought

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Speaker 1: where you saw the Lion's strength is as the game

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Speaker 1: wore on that offensive line. They had that nine play

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Speaker 1: drive in the fourth quarter, then they had they picked

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Speaker 1: up a first down late trying to kill the clock.

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Speaker 1: That's just you know these games. Defenses early in games,

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Speaker 1: Kansas City consistent pass rush, young defense. All of a

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Speaker 1: sudden that nine play drive, goff made a couple of

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Speaker 1: big throws. They start and it was a power run game.

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Speaker 1: It was clever. They had different looks, but it was

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Speaker 1: not a finesse run game. On that nine play drive.

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Speaker 1: It was a power run game. And you could see

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Speaker 1: it felt a little bit like to me that O

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Speaker 1: line kind of exerted its power a little bit in

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Speaker 1: that drive. Again, I think two really good teams to

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Speaker 1: clearly improve defenses, neither played particularly well. So if you're

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Speaker 1: Kansas City, Travis Kelcey was clearly missed. Chris Jones didn't

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Speaker 1: feel like he was, but Travis Kelsey was clearly missed

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Speaker 1: with all the drops. And I think if you look

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Speaker 1: at Detroit, we didn't play particularly well. Couldn't some mishaps

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Speaker 1: in the first half. I didn't even think. I know

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Speaker 1: everybody loves the OC Ben Johnson for the Lions, I

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Speaker 1: didn't love his play calling in certain spots the night

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Speaker 1: I really didn't. On fourth and two in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, I wear my notes here. Yeah, fourth and two,

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Speaker 1: there's a minute or so, a minute and a half,

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Speaker 1: two minutes left, maybe two and a half. Run the ball.

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Speaker 1: You just had a nine play power run drive like,

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Speaker 1: run the ball. They didn't pass batted down. So I

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Speaker 1: think Detroit is flying home tonight thinking Dan campbell'son in

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Speaker 1: that locker room. Guys, this was not flawless football. We

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Speaker 1: just beat the World Champs on the road. We didn't

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Speaker 1: play that great in spots. Our pass protection wasn't great,

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Speaker 1: couldn't run the first ball of football in the first

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Speaker 1: half goff a lot of passes batted down. But I

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Speaker 1: think what you saw with that fake punt early in

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Speaker 1: the game, I think Detroit came in with a mindset,

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Speaker 1: we're taking big swings here. Ok, We're not playing the

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Speaker 1: World Champs and going conservative. To beat Mahomes, got to

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Speaker 1: take a league, got to take big cuts, big swings.

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Speaker 1: Can't play not to lose. I mean, how many times

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Speaker 1: have we seen that with Mahomes. You got to play

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Speaker 1: aggressive football. And so they came in with an attitude

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Speaker 1: and I think that's what Dan Campbell has provided do

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Speaker 1: I think he's schematically brilliant. Well, he's built a very

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Speaker 1: good staff, so he knows people. That's clear. The front

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Speaker 1: office has done a really good job to build this

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Speaker 1: O line and the defense up over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years. You know, when I do these hits, everybody

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Speaker 1: always feels good about the winning team. If I'm Detroit,

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Speaker 1: we didn't play that great and we won in Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: I think Travis Kelsey was missed. I mean, man, a

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Speaker 1: lot of drops. Now. The other thing, I don't think

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Speaker 1: Mahomes played particularly well. I thought he was behind. The

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Speaker 1: timing was off. This is the downside to not playing

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the preseason much. I thought Mahomes was really

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Speaker 1: hit and miss. I mean he's short, hot and deep ball.

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Speaker 1: He never does that behind on two or three guys. Now,

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Speaker 1: the drops didn't help. But you know, again, when you

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Speaker 1: don't have your security blanket, your Edelman or your Gronk

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Speaker 1: for Brady, you're forcing stuff. The timing's not perfect. So

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Speaker 1: you have young guys. Sky Moore's a young guy. I

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Speaker 1: don't have Kelsey. I didn't play much in the preseason.

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Speaker 1: This is what it looks like. So it's a go

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Speaker 1: either way game. The Lions get that big drive, that

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Speaker 1: nine play drive late wasn't pretty, was not an artistic masterpiece.

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Speaker 1: I don't think either team played particularly well, but a

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Speaker 1: tip of the captain of the Lions. Good for them.

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Speaker 1: I had him winning the NFC North. I got my team.

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Speaker 1: I think in that division, amongst the Bears, the Packers,

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Speaker 1: and the Vikings, I think they have the best offensive line.

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Speaker 1: I think the edge Green Bay for the best offensive line.

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Speaker 1: I think Goff is better than Kirk Cousins, not as athletic,

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Speaker 1: but a better pocket guy than Justin Fields, better than

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Speaker 1: Jordan love So. I think the old line and the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I think the Lions have the best groups in their division,

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Speaker 1: and I think their defense is improved. They've branch Hutchison,

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Speaker 1: They've hitt in a couple guys, so it's an exciting time.

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Speaker 1: It's My wife is from Michigan. She doesn't follow sports

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Speaker 1: or care about it, but she knows. She knows about

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Speaker 1: the Lions, and she knows about Michigan football. So good

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Speaker 1: for Detroit. And they've had some lean decades, but it

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Speaker 1: felt big. It felt big for them, and I like

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Speaker 1: the way Detroit won. I liked that nine play drive

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Speaker 1: in the second half. That's just Dan Campbell. That's that's

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Speaker 1: fite kneecaps. That's big, tough, physical power running. Nice w

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Speaker 1: We're here, baby, football's here. We're going to bring in

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Speaker 1: Jamack of the Herd Jason McIntyre to play a new

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Speaker 1: game every week called the Vaulted Challenge. Okay, so we're

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Speaker 1: excited to be used the Vaulted app. It's spelled v

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Speaker 1: l ted. Vaulted is a place where you can store

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Speaker 1: your sports predictions and participate in cash prize pools without

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Speaker 1: any entry fee. How cool is that you can prove

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Speaker 1: you're smarter than all your friends using the Vaulted Challenge App.

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Speaker 1: I'm issuing three challenges to Jmack around this weekend's game.

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Speaker 1: He can either accept or reject my Vaulted Challenge. So

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Speaker 1: here we go. My prediction Kenny Pickett throws for more

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Speaker 1: yards than Brock Purty of San Francisco. I'm risking three units.

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Speaker 1: Agree or disagree.

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Speaker 2: I disagree, Colin. I like Brock Purty in this spot.

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Speaker 2: I know it's a road game. We don't know the

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Speaker 2: status of George Kittle, but this is a this is

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Speaker 2: a game where he's gonna have to put the ball

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Speaker 2: up in the air.

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Speaker 1: I think thirty thirty.

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Speaker 2: Five pass attempts because I think they're gonna be playing

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Speaker 2: from behind, and I don't think they're gonna be able

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Speaker 2: to run on this nasty Pittsburgh defensive front. I think

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Speaker 2: this is probably a two hundred and fifty yard passing

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Speaker 2: game for Perdy, and I don't know that Pickle will

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Speaker 2: get there, mostly because the defense will do the job.

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Speaker 2: I like Pittsburgh in the game, and I like Purdy

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Speaker 2: through the air.

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Speaker 1: Next up, Texans Ravens. I predict Lamar Jackson has more

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Speaker 1: total touchdowns than the entire Texans offense. I'm risking seven

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Speaker 1: units on this one. Agree or disagree.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna agree with you there. I'm surprised it

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Speaker 2: wasn't ten units. Goodness gracious, I mean Lamar, this could

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Speaker 2: be a bloodbath. I don't see the Texans stopping Lamar.

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Speaker 2: He's never had this many weapons. Odell Beckham's a flower

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Speaker 2: like they really are in line here to put up

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Speaker 2: forty and make a statement. We've got a new offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 2: We're moving on to a new era. And Texans and

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Speaker 2: Damiico Ryans. I'm sorry, it's an Uphill Challenge. You don't

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Speaker 2: have the forty nine ers defense you had last year.

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Speaker 1: Final Challenge Packers Bears. I'm gonna predict Justin Fields, Chicago

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Speaker 1: quarterback has more rushing yards than Aaron Jones, the top

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Speaker 1: running back for Green Bay. I'm risking two units. Agree

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Speaker 1: or disagree.

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Speaker 2: Smells like a trap. I'm gonna go ahead and disagree

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Speaker 2: with you, Colin. I think this is an Aaron Jones game.

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Speaker 2: If you've seen the injury reports, Romeo Dobbs and Christian

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Speaker 2: Watson are like, we don't know that they're not practicing

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Speaker 2: earlier in the week. It's like how healthy are they?

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Speaker 2: Then you look at the weapons outside and Jordan Love

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Speaker 2: is not gonna have many. I think this is a

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Speaker 2: heavy Aaron Jones game, probably with a dose of mister

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Speaker 2: Dylan behind him. I think Justin Fields, we know what

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Speaker 2: he can do getting loose, but all signs indicate Fields

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Speaker 2: is gonna want to win from the pocket this year.

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Speaker 2: He can't take the beating he took last year. So

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Speaker 2: I think Field's rushing yards probably diminished a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Aaron Jones I got them on all my fantasy teams.

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Speaker 2: This is probably a one twenty five one to fifty

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Speaker 2: game from Aaron Jones. All right, Colin, my first challenge

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Speaker 2: to you is that Baker Mayfield, your favorite quarterback, will

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Speaker 2: have more passing yards than Kirk Cousins. I'm risking four

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Speaker 2: units on this one. Agree or disagree?

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Speaker 1: I agree. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown no ability

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Speaker 1: in the last two years to run the football. Baker's

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Speaker 1: going to be forced to throw. I like their weapons.

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Speaker 1: This is one of those games that I don't like

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Speaker 1: Tampa to win. I think they'll trail. I think they'll

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Speaker 1: have to throw. I think they'll have no run game.

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Speaker 1: I agree. Hmm interesting.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to my next one, Texans Ravens CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud's debut. I predict he will have less than two

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Speaker 2: touchdown passes. I'm risking only one unit here because this,

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Speaker 2: like I said earlier, could be a blood bath and

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Speaker 2: he's airing it out. Would you agree or disagree?

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna disagree because I think they'll trail and have

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Speaker 1: to throw the ball. Ravens in a prevent defense late

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Speaker 1: and CJ will actually get those you know, classic last

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Speaker 1: two to three drive yards and touchdowns to elevate his

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Speaker 1: overall numbers. I think they trail. I think it could

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Speaker 1: be ugly. He'll get a lot of those padded stats

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Speaker 1: that don't mean much. But I disagree. Garbage time.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll wrap up with my final prediction. Most

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Speaker 2: confident here. Russell Wilson has more than two hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty five and a half passing yards against the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: I'm winning nine units on this one. Colin a lot

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Speaker 2: of confidence.

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Speaker 1: Agree or disagree? I agree, and I think Denver wins,

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Speaker 1: and probably comfortably. Denver at home. Sean Payton was Coach

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Speaker 1: of the Year with the Saints his first year. He

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Speaker 1: figures stuff out quickly. I work with him in TV.

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Speaker 1: He figures stuff out quickly. Raiders are a bit of

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Speaker 1: a mess. The Chandler Jones drama, I don't love, don't

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Speaker 1: love ownership, new front Office. I agree. I think Russell

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Speaker 1: new slimmer, Russell running more play action Russell. I think

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Speaker 1: he has a pretty good day. If you want to

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply well. For the last several years, it has

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Speaker 1: been hopefully a part of your gaming habits where I

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Speaker 1: play appropriately the square. Though last year I hit fifty

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Speaker 1: five to fifty six percent of my games and had

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Speaker 1: a winning opening week, which I'm not prone to do

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Speaker 1: because I tend to be like a boxer. I feel

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Speaker 1: out the opposition, and so my Week one history is

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Speaker 1: pretty lame and the sharp is as olways Chad Milman,

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Speaker 1: the Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: our new partner. So let's just I'm gonna just ease

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Speaker 1: my way into it. You know, there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: things I'll tell you. One of my I talked about

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Speaker 1: this all off season, and I don't know if I'm

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Speaker 1: going to make it a bet. But I said, Shane

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Speaker 1: Steikin's great. I've seen him work magic with two young quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: and I have no idea, nor does Jacksonville know what

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Speaker 1: the hell they're getting from Anthony Richardson. I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to make that one of my picks. But a rivalry game,

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Speaker 1: you know we're going to be stunned by something week one,

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Speaker 1: So I just want a feeler on that because I

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Speaker 1: think Jacksonville is coming in with pressure and has no

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Speaker 1: idea what they're getting. I think for three hours you

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Speaker 1: can upset people when they it's just the element of surprise.

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Speaker 3: What would you say, I'd say you don't need a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks to feel things out right now, Colin,

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Speaker 3: you are as sharp as a knife. The only reason

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Speaker 3: I haven't done is yet is because Jacksonville is such

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Speaker 3: a public team that I know money is going to

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Speaker 3: come in on them during the weekend, and by Sunday

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Speaker 3: I might get a better number. I might get Indianapolis

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Speaker 3: plus five and a half plus six. So I'm just

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Speaker 3: waiting for that. But look, in previous years, we've seen this.

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis in Week one and everybody knows you're

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Speaker 3: gonna bet on Indianapolis, but you bet on Jacksonville because

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Speaker 3: they're the worst team and they're getting huge number. It's

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Speaker 3: the only game they win all year, and then Indianapolis

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Speaker 3: turns around and is fine. Now the situation is reversed.

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville is everybody's darling. They love Trevor Lawrence. This is

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Speaker 3: a terrible offensive line, maybe one of the worst offensive

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Speaker 3: lines in the end, and they're without Cam Robinson for

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Speaker 3: the first four weeks of the year. This is going

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Speaker 3: to be Indianapolis's one of their best chances to win.

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Speaker 3: So I love, love, love Indie as an underdog. Here

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Speaker 3: all right, well.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet that game. I just decided. Okay, here's

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Speaker 1: another one. So I'm gonna say something, and you are

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Speaker 1: going to tell your friends off air. He doesn't know

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Speaker 1: what he's talking about. But here's my theory, because you

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Speaker 1: would not be rude. But I've always had this thing

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Speaker 1: about the number four embedding. So when I see three

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Speaker 1: and a half, I'm gonna take the hook in most instances,

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Speaker 1: but four is different. Vegas and the wise guys are

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Speaker 1: telling you we don't need the hook. The favorites, the

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Speaker 1: better team. So Sean Payton won Coach of the Year

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Speaker 1: first year in New Orleans. His shit works fast, and

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Speaker 1: we don't doubt the talent here, it's just the culture.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I saw. Russell Wilson loses weight by the

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Speaker 1: second preseason game. They do one series and Sean's like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: seen enough, I'm not showing you anything else. I think, Sean,

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Speaker 1: remember the first preseason game. They've played four series in

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Speaker 1: one week. All of a sudden, that next series, You're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: that looks good. Sean closed the books. We're done. I

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Speaker 1: think Denver comes out. They're great. Opening weeks in the altitude.

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Speaker 1: They beat the desert team Denver minus four Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I think your instincts are all right. I love Denver.

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Speaker 3: I one of my biggest bets is Denver to win

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Speaker 3: the AFC West. I also, listen, you have to think

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Speaker 3: about what you just said, right, Think about Sean Payton.

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Speaker 3: Think about a defense. Think about a defense that gave

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Speaker 3: up more than twenty points once in the first eleven

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Speaker 3: weeks of the year. They could have won so many

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Speaker 3: games if their offense could have scored two and a

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Speaker 3: half touchdowns in the first eleven games of the year.

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Speaker 3: They lost multiple games in overtime. It wasn't until the

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Speaker 3: end of the year, where they had completely lost themselves

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Speaker 3: that their defense started to fade a little bit. They've

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Speaker 3: got really good skill position players. You've got to believe

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Speaker 3: that Sean Payton is worth several wins on top of

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Speaker 3: what they did last year. Certainly like them at over

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Speaker 3: eight and a half wins. And why not, it's not

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Speaker 3: going to be the Kansas City Show every single year

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Speaker 3: in the AFC West, and there's always a team eighteen

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Speaker 3: of the past twenty years, Colin, a team goes from

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Speaker 3: worse to first in the division? Why not Denver. So

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Speaker 3: all that said, this game is kind of a pass

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Speaker 3: for me because I don't like the number. I think

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Speaker 3: four is actually too much, and you're talking about a

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Speaker 3: divisional game, first game of the year. There's a couple

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Speaker 3: spots here where I like the favorite a lot, but

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Speaker 3: I don't like the number in these scenarios, and this

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Speaker 3: is one of those games.

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Speaker 1: All Right, I'm gonna go to the one o'clock window.

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Speaker 1: This has been much discussed in the HERD. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you've heard, but it's a very popular show.

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Speaker 3: Nationally.

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Speaker 1: The kids adore it, tell me about it. The old

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Speaker 1: people tolerate it. So yeah, I'm gonna take Pittsburgh plus

385
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Speaker 1: the points. I don't love DraftKings has it at plus two.

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00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 1: I like two point five. I like two and a half. Okay,

387
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: but when TJ wats healthy, they win. Mike Tomlin is

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Speaker 1: as good a coach as the league has. When he's

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Speaker 1: backed into a corner, he's playing a more talented team.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's disrespecting Kenny Pickett's I don't like Tomlin as a favorite,

391
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Speaker 1: but as a home dog. I remember a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago when he went to Buffalo and they walked

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Speaker 1: in there with an old big bend. I'm like, what

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Speaker 1: did I just watch? I'm gonna take the points with Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: Canny Pickett once at the end of the year he

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Speaker 1: moved the chains. What do you think, Sharper Square.

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Speaker 3: You're so freaking sharp on this colin on the Favorites podcast,

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Speaker 3: which you know, well, this was my executive decision, meaning

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Speaker 3: it's a must bet game. I love Pittsburgh here truth

400
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:19,479
Speaker 3: be told. I loved Pittsburgh when the lines opened in

401
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Speaker 3: I don't know May or June, and they were three

402
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: point underdogs at home. I think Kenny Bickett is a baller.

403
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 3: I love him as a quarterback for this team San Francisco. Look,

404
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: they're going to be a team that everyone loves to

405
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 3: potentially make the Super Bowl as a road favorite. Kyle

406
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 3: Shanahan is not great, just ten and eleven against the spread.

407
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Speaker 3: But what you said about Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin is

408
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 3: the best underdog coach in the past twenty years, literally

409
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 3: the most profitable underdog coach in the past twenty years.

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Speaker 3: They are fifty three thirty and four as an underdog

411
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Speaker 3: under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is so I love this team.

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Speaker 3: I kind of love them outright, like Tomlin does really well.

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Speaker 3: He's twenty nineteen and covering it like as a outright

414
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Speaker 3: as an underdog. So this is a great game to bet. Also,

415
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Speaker 3: let me say one thing. TJ. Watt huge game changer.

416
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Speaker 3: Don't forget he was injured for a lot of the

417
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 3: season last year. Right eight and two straight up and

418
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Speaker 3: against the spread. Pittsburgh is when TJ. Watt is on

419
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 3: the field last year, so this is a much different

420
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Speaker 3: team with TJ. Watt. You got it back, You got

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Speaker 3: it back Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: Here as a young child, the kids in the neighborhood

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Speaker 1: would call me contrarian Colin. I'm gonna take New York

424
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Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Here's why. Daniel Jones may

425
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Speaker 1: have a ceiling, but he doesn't lose you games. He

426
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: had five picks. He's a bigger, stronger, more athletic version

427
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: of Alex Smith. There's a ceiling, but in year two

428
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: with Brian Dable, they've added an element of Darren Waller.

429
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 1: They're now very good at tackle both sides. Their second

430
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 1: round pick could be the best young center in the game.

431
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 1: Barkley's in house. I like their defensive front kevon Thiebaudo

432
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: a second year. I don't like Dallas's head coach. I'm

433
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: not in love with the offensive line coach. Their best

434
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 1: coach is their defensive coordinator, and Dak has become a

435
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 1: pocket passer. That's what he is now. Second year Brian

436
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: Dable at home, the world loves Dallas. I don't think

437
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: New York is a great team, but I don't see

438
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 1: them going off a cliff with Brian Dable. I'm gonna

439
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 1: take three and a half and New York Sharper Square.

440
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 3: Totally sharp, You're making the exact right move. I know

441
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 3: that New York is a better team, but close spread

442
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 3: division rivals. What's really interesting about New York, and there's

443
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 3: a similarity with Minnesota. The narrative for both teams is

444
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 3: that they won a lot of close games. The narrative

445
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 3: for Minnesota is that there's going to be huge regression

446
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 3: that they will not be able to do the same thing.

447
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 3: The narrative for New York is that Brian Dabel is

448
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 3: such a good coach. A lot of a lot of

449
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 3: the success they had is repeatable, and we're all sort

450
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 3: of falling into that trap a little bit that he

451
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,119
Speaker 3: is so good he will win his team games in

452
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 3: ways that other coaches can't. I firmly believe that New

453
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 3: York is the right side in this game because of

454
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: Brian Dable, because of some of the things you just

455
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 3: said about the talent they've added. It'll be very interesting

456
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 3: to see if this narrative hold and if he is

457
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: good enough to keep this team in close games the

458
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 3: way he did last year.

459
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: It's a big game, so let's play it.

460
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 3: So.

461
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: I don't love that von Miller is out for Buffalo,

462
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: and I don't love that Leslie Frasier just decided to

463
00:26:55,160 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 1: leave the franchise. But Buffalo is well coached. Josh Allen

464
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 1: is in his prime. You don't have to love either

465
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 1: offensive line, but old quarterbacks bad at tackle is a

466
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 1: real concern. We can say we don't like this Defaon

467
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: Diggs drama. We know it's gonna be fine week one. Okay,

468
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 1: we're not worried about a blow up now. It was

469
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: the end of last year. I get a quarterback in

470
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: his prime. They got the best tight end in the draft.

471
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 1: They're healthy outside of Von Miller. I don't like when

472
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: Tom Brady went to Tampa. What did he say? Tristan

473
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 1: Wurf's stafford fell apart when the O line did. Young

474
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:43,479
Speaker 1: quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Herbert set rookie records

475
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: with a terrible old line. I think Aaron's gonna get

476
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: prickly really fast. This is a bad old line. I'm

477
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: gonna take Buffalo minus two and a half sharper square square.

478
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: This is a bad spot. This is a bad spot

479
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 3: for Buffalo, and it's a good spot for New York.

480
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 3: And I'll preface all of what I'm going to say

481
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 3: by saying I have Buffalo going to the super Bowl,

482
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 3: and I am fading New York every chance I get.

483
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: If it's the right spot. This is not the right spot.

484
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 3: I think it's one of the I think in a

485
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: week we're gonna love Buffalo and we're gonna hate New York.

486
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: But one thing New York has going for it. A.

487
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: It's at home, prime time. Aaron Rodgers, if he's ever

488
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: going to shine, this is the spot. B. They've got

489
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 3: a tremendous defensive line. Buffalo's offensive line is just not

490
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: that good. And so while Josh Allen is incredibly athletic

491
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 3: and in his prime and we'll be able to make

492
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: people miss and cover up people's mistakes, he can't do

493
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 3: it the whole game against a really good New York defense.

494
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: So this game probably should be closer to pick. And

495
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 3: you're getting two and a half points of value. We got,

496
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 3: you know, the podcast and the favorites. We get calls

497
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 3: from professional betters all the time. This was the game

498
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 3: they could not wait to hammer. Okay, as Is, you

499
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 3: did great, though, Colin, you did really good well, Contrarian,

500
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: I don't want you to feel bad about yourself.

501
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: Got that Moniker as a child, Okay.

502
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 3: Contrarian on the tough you grew up with a lot

503
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: of wise guys that year.

504
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: The tough streets of grayln Washington. Okay, you always convinced

505
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: me of a game to take a lot of people

506
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: like Washington this week, I don't know. Give me the

507
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: game you think I missed? Overlooked?

508
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 3: How gross do you want to be?

509
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: Oh, this is the game you play. I listen. I

510
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: can be.

511
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 3: Gross because I could go try to get you to

512
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: take Houston at plus ten. The only no, I.

513
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: Don't want to go by a kid. I can't do it.

514
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: You know. I hate big numbers. I hate big favors.

515
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 3: I know, but that's that is That is definitely a

516
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 3: game I'm going to be betting. But how about this?

517
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 3: And I'm surprised you didn't mention this one? Why not

518
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 3: Cleveland hosting Cincinnati? Cleveland is another one, similar to Denver.

519
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 3: I bet Cleveland to win the AFC North. This has

520
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 3: this team has a top five offensive line, They've got

521
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 3: a top five defensive line and incredibly talented roster, a

522
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 3: really good coach. You're betting on Deshaun Watson getting back

523
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 3: to mid level form. But Joe Burrow he's been injurered

524
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 3: week one can be challenging. We don't know what we're

525
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 3: getting out of that team yet they're on the road.

526
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 3: This is the spot where you find out what kind

527
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: of talent and competition Cleveland can live up to. I

528
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 3: smash Cleveland, love this spot.

529
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: For Let me throw this one at you, just interested

530
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 1: in your perspective. We both love Chicago. I'm going to

531
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: stay away from this game. And a lot of people

532
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 1: like green Bay here. What say you?

533
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: Yeah? The wise guys like green Bay here a lot

534
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 3: more than they like Chicago. And I think it's they

535
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: liked it and started pounding it when the line was

536
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 3: at about two and a half. Look, there's been so

537
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 3: much hype for Chicago. I obviously love Chicago. I'm from there.

538
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 3: I talk about them often. I'm not convinced that this

539
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: is going to be a team you want to bet

540
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 3: on early. They've still got a lot of offensive line issues.

541
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 3: We don't know how accurate Justin fields can be with

542
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 3: Dj Moore. The defense is atrocious. It's still a team

543
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 3: to finish three and fourteen, lost ten games in a row,

544
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 3: like it is not a good spot for them. I

545
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 3: think there's a lot more to love for a Green

546
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 3: Bay's roster from top to bottom, and the fact that

547
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 3: they have seen enough of Jordan Love to feel good

548
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 3: that he can be someone who can potentially win this

549
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 3: game outright. So as a short underdog, the professionals are

550
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 3: back in Green Bay.

551
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 1: I want to stay away from Miami this year because

552
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: at TUA, I'm staying away mostly.

553
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 3: I think that's right. I like Los Angeles here. It's

554
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 3: a tricky game, though it's a really there's a lot

555
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 3: of tricky games. And the other game. By the way,

556
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 3: I know we're ending our time here, but we did

557
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: not talk about New England and Philadelphia, which is another game.

558
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 3: The wise guys love New England.

559
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: So I like New England, but I worry about the

560
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 1: right side of their old line.

561
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 3: Listen from everyone who knows more than me, call Cosel.

562
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 3: Does Cosell care about the right tackle? Does he have

563
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 3: the right tackle who's filling in? Graded that much below

564
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 3: the right tackle who's injured? The line moved half a

565
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 3: point off of that news, So New England is now

566
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 3: a four point underdog. I would take New England in

567
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: this spot.

568
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not going to have a cocktail. It's Thursday

569
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 1: game night, so I'll have clarity to sleep on that.

570
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: You may have convinced me on that one. That right tackle,

571
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: that right tackles everything.

572
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 3: I do what I can. This is why, this is

573
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 3: why professional betters watch preseason games. People think, oh, why

574
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: would you bet on preseason game? Why would you watch

575
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 3: preseason Professional betters watch preseason games. I've been in the

576
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 3: room with them when they're talking about this, because they

577
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 3: are grading the backup tackle and the backup guard late

578
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: in the second quarter, in the third quarter, all the

579
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 3: way through to the fourth quarter. Because that does make

580
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 3: a difference for a lot of teams when it comes

581
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 3: to betting on them later in the season when you

582
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: start to get banged up. So this is an important

583
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 3: right tackle. You joke, but it's it's important. But I

584
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: don't think it's going to matter in.

585
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: A professional betters. You know what's different about you. You're

586
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: the only one with a beautiful redhead. He has folks,

587
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: He has a beautiful Yeah, well that would go for

588
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: you too. My wife look like sisters. You very pro

589
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: sports canbeller have beautiful wives. That's just a random generalization.

590
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 3: By the way, I think they would say, oh, Colin.

591
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: You're being contrarian. Sharper square, all odds provided by draft Kings.

592
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: My friend awesome, See you later. The volume