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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn ten seconds

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Speaker 2: or maining. So just go show me up to the basket.

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Speaker 3: Under the basket, it's the truth for the win.

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Speaker 4: God make a miracle. I'd up the water hit that

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Speaker 4: one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, brought to

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Speaker 2: you by bet MGM. I'm Mike Caliberty's joined by our

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Speaker 2: college basketball expert Tanner McGrath. And before we break down

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Speaker 2: every matchup in the round of sixty four, we have

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Speaker 2: to start with the playing games here in Dayton. So

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Speaker 2: we're going to get to the four that are on

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Speaker 2: Tuesday and Wednesday with plays on sides in all four

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Speaker 2: of those matchups. Tanner, I'll kick it to you first

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Speaker 2: for Howard versus Wagner.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's talk through it. It's great to see you, Breeze.

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Speaker 4: Great to be back on the Big Bets on Campus Podcast.

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Speaker 4: And this is a great game to start off the

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Speaker 4: first four because this is a This is a wild

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Speaker 4: matchup for a variety of reasons. The big thing is

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Speaker 4: you're getting two defenses that run plenty of matchup zone

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Speaker 4: looks and press like crazy, and that feels like a

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Speaker 4: staple defensive strategy about the MIAK and the Northeast Conference.

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Speaker 4: So you're getting two offenses that are similar with the defenses,

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Speaker 4: but I don't know how they match up. Starting with Howard,

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Speaker 4: I thought at first, like looking at you know, on

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Speaker 4: the surface, I thought Howard would have a huge advantage

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Speaker 4: because the Bison's Princeton motion offense has produced an immeasurable

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Speaker 4: amount of open jumpers. I mean, they led the MIAK

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Speaker 4: in three point rate and open three rate both by

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Speaker 4: a mile, and they canned thirty eight percent of their

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Speaker 4: triples in conference play. So at first I was like,

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Speaker 4: you know what, Howard is just going to shoot right

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Speaker 4: over the top of Wagner. But somewhat surprisingly, Wagner is

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Speaker 4: top forty nationally and open three rate allowed. They close

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Speaker 4: out on every jumper, and they are a much better

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Speaker 4: ball handling team between the two, which is key against

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Speaker 4: two press heavy styles. And both teams are great at

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Speaker 4: rebounding on both ends. So while both teams crash the

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Speaker 4: offensive glass pretty hard, I'm not sure if either has

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Speaker 4: the advantage there. Wagner, however, foils a lot less. They

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Speaker 4: actually don't fail much at all considering their aggressive style,

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Speaker 4: which will be really key against Howard because the Bison

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Speaker 4: typically live at the line. Now the Seahawks, they can't

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Speaker 4: score to save their life, and their stats against press

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Speaker 4: and zone defenses are predictably poor, but they enjoy a

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Speaker 4: monstrous size advantage on the wing. Melvin Constle Junior will

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Speaker 4: have probably two inches on Marcus Dockery. Tarron Allen will

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Speaker 4: have maybe an inch on Bryce Harris, and those are

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Speaker 4: the Seahawks' primary offensive creators. And the Wagner gets out

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Speaker 4: and transition at a surprisingly high rate for a slower

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Speaker 4: paced team. They were fourth in the NEC and fast

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Speaker 4: break points per game with eleven above the seventieh percentile

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Speaker 4: and transition frequency, and that could be the difference against

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Speaker 4: the Howard team that ranks sub three hundred and fifteth

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Speaker 4: nationally and fast break points per game allowed sub three

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Speaker 4: hundred nationally. In transition points per possession allow just over

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Speaker 4: one point one. They allowed like the fifteenth most transition

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Speaker 4: possessions per game of any team, and they weren't great

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Speaker 4: at stopping anything. So I think that this could be

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Speaker 4: a rock fight. You know, Wagner can't score and they

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Speaker 4: actually match up defensively pretty well with Howard's perimeter based offense.

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Speaker 4: And you know, as many of these sixteen versus sixteen

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Speaker 4: playing games are, they usually are ugly, right, So I'm

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Speaker 4: happy to grab over a possession in a point set

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Speaker 4: a premium battle. I think Wagner is sitting about plus

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Speaker 4: three and a half in the market with a Seahawks

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Speaker 4: team that has some really interesting advantages, namely wing scoring,

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Speaker 4: transition scoring, and excellent three point defense. My biggest worry

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Speaker 4: is that the ageless wonder that is Seth Towns just

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Speaker 4: creates endlessly in the high posts while cutting and slashing

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Speaker 4: through Wagner's zone. But I'm willing to take my chances

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Speaker 4: because he actually didn't shoot that well from the tier

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Speaker 4: this year, wasn't super efficient. And one final point, if

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Speaker 4: either of these teams played perdue, I would love that

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Speaker 4: matchup because you can zone dy and then press the backcourt.

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Speaker 4: But either probably gets blown out by North Carolina supernova backcourt.

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Speaker 4: So I will take Wagner here and then probably fade

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Speaker 4: them in the next round.

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Speaker 2: So just for the audience, give a little background on

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Speaker 2: Seth Town's a primer on just how old he is?

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Speaker 3: Oh, where do you even start?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I believe he was recruited when Barack Obama

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Speaker 2: was in the White House.

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Speaker 1: Let's start there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he played at Harvard in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 4: and then I believe he got hurt or stepped away

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Speaker 4: from college basketball until twenty twenty one, where he transferred

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Speaker 4: to Ohio State, and then he stepped away again and

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Speaker 4: then came back to Howard. So he is now got

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Speaker 4: how old is he?

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Speaker 1: I think twenty five or twenty six.

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Speaker 4: He's twenty six. He's more in November nineteen ninety seven,

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Speaker 4: so he will be twenty seven this year. And he

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Speaker 4: is still playing college basketball after all this time. And

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Speaker 4: you know, he he led some pretty good Harvard teams,

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Speaker 4: and he was all right at Ohio State. And he's

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Speaker 4: he's the best like puer scorer on this team and

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Speaker 4: shot creator. I just I just don't love his like

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Speaker 4: efficiency metrics in that area. You know, especially when I

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Speaker 4: think you to attack Wagner, you really have to attack

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Speaker 4: them on the inside. You got to cut and slash

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Speaker 4: through their zone and get to the rim. And if

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Speaker 4: that's your one option, I'm not going to take it.

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Speaker 2: One final question, if either of these teams get through,

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Speaker 2: any chance they can hang around for one half against

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Speaker 2: the one seed.

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Speaker 4: I don't think so, just because I think that North

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Speaker 4: Carolina's backcourt it's just a supernova offensively, right, I mean

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Speaker 4: R J. Davis is shot and dribble creation is so dominant,

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Speaker 4: and he could just dribble right through the zone and

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Speaker 4: the press and Byko will have a size advantage, you know,

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Speaker 4: down low. I really don't like that matchup in the

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Speaker 4: next round. I'd have to see what the number is.

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Speaker 4: But if I had, you know, thinking forward, I'd probably

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Speaker 4: just lay the points, all right.

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Speaker 2: Go into the nightcap on Tuesday night, Colra sty laying

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Speaker 2: two and a half against Virginia. The opposite of America

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Speaker 2: is Darling. No one wanted Virginia in this tournament. But

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Speaker 2: Tony Bennett, former national champion, brings a team that plays slow,

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Speaker 2: leans on their defense their seventh in ken Pom defense

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Speaker 2: to grind out wins. But here's the thing right off

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Speaker 2: the top, the Rams aren't some run and gun team.

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Speaker 2: They're two hundred and seventieth in tempo and they're nearly

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Speaker 2: perfectly balanced forty second and oh thirty eighth and d

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Speaker 2: according to Kenpom. Their weakness on defense is their perimeter

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Speaker 2: defense defending the three point line, which is one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety first in the country.

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Speaker 1: Virginia. For all of their issues on the offensive end,

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Speaker 1: they can shoot the three.

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Speaker 2: Outside of that, though they have real difficulties consistently putting

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Speaker 2: the ball in the basket. Two hundred and forty six

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Speaker 2: in effect a field goal percentage, And if you're Colorado State,

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Speaker 2: close out hard on these guys, because if you do

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Speaker 2: foul for whatever reason, this is the worst foul shooting

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Speaker 2: team perhaps in the history of the ACC. I get

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Speaker 2: knocked him out of the ACC tournament. They shot sub

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Speaker 2: sixty four percent on the season from the line, So

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Speaker 2: if it's a close game, if it's a game in

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Speaker 2: which they put them to the line twenty or twenty

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Speaker 2: five times, they're not going to get burned. So I

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Speaker 2: wonder how much that comes into Medved's game plan to

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Speaker 2: just play a little bit more aggressively, at least on

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Speaker 2: the wings, to be able to try to shut down

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Speaker 2: some of the three point shooting. Then March, as I've

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Speaker 2: said many times, is all about guard play, and they

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Speaker 2: get the best guard in this game, Isaiah Stevens. Incredible

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Speaker 2: point guard. For those who haven't watched him. I think

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Speaker 2: he got absolutely robbed. That he's not a cooozy finalist

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Speaker 2: this year. I think that was pretty incredible given all

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Speaker 2: of hisa cistical accomplishments. He started one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: one games in college, so the stage, the moment's certainly

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Speaker 2: not going to be too big for him. He's a

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Speaker 2: knockdown shooter, shoots almost forty five percent from three to

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Speaker 2: eighty four percent from the line, the average seven assists

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Speaker 2: per game. He's very low in terms of his turnover rate,

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Speaker 2: and when he has been asked to carry the offense.

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Speaker 1: He has ten games where he scored twenty plus this year.

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Speaker 2: So I wouldn't necessarily lead with saying that he's a

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Speaker 2: combo guard, but if they need him to play hero ball,

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Speaker 2: he can do it. So of all the mid major

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Speaker 2: players in the field of sixty eight, he ranks number

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Speaker 2: one in terms of his offensive impact from the box

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Speaker 2: score or the Bayesian Performance Rating. So that's just something

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Speaker 2: to keep in mind in terms of how much he

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Speaker 2: impacts the game. And then finally, when you start to

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Speaker 2: break down this offense, I know I'm speaking to the

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Speaker 2: action networks, mister x's and o's, so you can spot

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Speaker 2: check me here. But Medved's system is so fun to

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Speaker 2: watch because there's this blend of Johnny or spread b lines,

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Speaker 2: two guard system, even a version of the Princeton offense,

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Speaker 2: and they will go five out. So even though Virginia

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Speaker 2: is an elite defensive team with one of the best

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Speaker 2: defensive coaches in the history of the sport, there's different

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Speaker 2: ways that they can attack them, and I think they

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Speaker 2: won't necessarily get bogged down if one way of playing

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Speaker 2: isn't working for them. Now, they face four top forty

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Speaker 2: defenses in the Mountain West Conference this year, including New

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Speaker 2: Mexico and San Diego State, who are both top twenty five.

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Speaker 2: They get wins over Boise and Nevada and nearly upset

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Speaker 2: New Mexico at the pit, So in terms of being

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Speaker 2: able to break quality defenses and playing well away from

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Speaker 2: Fort Collins, they got it done. So I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a shock for them to cover

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Speaker 2: this number against Virginia. I understand that the public sentiment

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Speaker 2: has moved off of the Wahoos, and maybe that has

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Speaker 2: inflated this line because should be closer to a coin flip.

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Speaker 2: But even though it's still underneath a single possession. I'll

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Speaker 2: go ahead and take the rams land the points.

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Speaker 3: I agree with you one hundred percent.

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Speaker 4: I took the rams almost immediately when that line dropped

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Speaker 4: and you mentioned it. They have a few different ways

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Speaker 4: to attack Virginia's pack line. Yeah, they really have two ways.

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Speaker 4: And the first is that you talk about the five out. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: Medved runs a lot of that secondary action around the perimeter,

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Speaker 4: so you can actually play you can circumvent the pack

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Speaker 4: line by beating them over the top with those secondary actions.

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Speaker 4: And the second thing is, you know, Virginia is a

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Speaker 4: really good the pack line is a really good cut

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Speaker 4: denial defense, but if you can dribble penetrate the pack line,

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Speaker 4: their per possession, like cutting defensive numbers are really poor.

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Speaker 4: And so all you need is that and Colorado State

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Speaker 4: one of the best rim running cutting offenses in the

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Speaker 4: nation because you just have Stevens, who's an elite passer,

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Speaker 4: hitting cut perfectly and stride every time. So if he

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Speaker 4: can unpack the pack line and then hit cutters, you're

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Speaker 4: talking about just inverting Virginia's defense altogether, and everything's going

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Speaker 4: to open up. And I mean, in the end, look, Virginia,

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Speaker 4: what they failed to score fifty points in four of

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Speaker 4: their final five regular season games. All the Rams need

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Speaker 4: to do is generate a few more clutch, good offensive possessions,

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Speaker 4: and I think they I think they definitely do that.

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Speaker 5: Hey, guys, stuck here. If you ever wanted to try

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Speaker 5: the best version of the Action Network at well, now

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Speaker 5: is the perfect opportunity to do so, because we have

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Speaker 5: a special offer to celebrate the month of March in

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Speaker 2: the play in in Dayton, going to the next ten

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Speaker 2: v ten. In terms of the I guess the last

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Speaker 2: teams to make the tournament, it's a little bit shocking

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Speaker 2: when you look at Boise State. You saw that reaction

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Speaker 2: during the racket reveal. You know, they popped off one

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Speaker 2: streamer and didn't move and it seemed like it was

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Speaker 2: a funeral. Whereas Colorado, I think, you know, when you

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Speaker 2: look at this team, so many squads in the last

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Speaker 2: five to six years have used the playing game as

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Speaker 2: a springboard to making a deep run in the field

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Speaker 2: of sixty four. Could the Buffaloes do it? I'll see

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Speaker 2: you up in that way, Freeze.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a lot to like about Colorado in

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Speaker 4: this tournament. I guess I'll start here. They slumped mid season, right,

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Speaker 4: but they dealt with injuries Cody Williams, Tristan da Silva.

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Speaker 4: They're fully healthy now. They have a ton of talent

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Speaker 4: and they won eight of their final nine games, you know,

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Speaker 4: including a sweet run to the PAC twelve title game,

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Speaker 4: and they probably would have won that game if it

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Speaker 4: weren't for Nefali Dante just going thermonuclear.

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Speaker 3: I think you shot twelve from twelve from the field. Again.

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Speaker 4: There is a lot to like about this team, and

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Speaker 4: the start is that they're really versatile both ends of

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Speaker 4: the court. Tad Boyle can run a lot of different

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Speaker 4: sets around kJ Simpson and Da Silva, from spread, pick

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Speaker 4: and roll to the more typical hybrid Princeton motion. They're

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Speaker 4: also lethal in transition, and Eddie Lampkin is a monster

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Speaker 4: rebounder who often starts that attack by grabbing and going

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Speaker 4: off the boards or finishing it off with the second

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Speaker 4: hand chance bucket. On the other end, they are really

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Speaker 4: good at creating open threes and preventing them, ranking top

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Speaker 4: thirty five nationally in open three rate and open three

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Speaker 4: rate allowed. But there's still more of like an interior

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Speaker 4: base rim running offense. So I like that they can

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Speaker 4: create consistent half court offense at the rim. And thanks

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Speaker 4: to their versatility, you know, they on a half decent

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Speaker 4: switch everything defense that's really good on the perimeter. They're

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Speaker 4: good at stopping secondary actions, plus, they never foul and

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Speaker 4: they rebound everything. Now on the Boise State side of things,

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Speaker 4: the Broncos also very versatile squad Leon Rice tends to

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Speaker 4: prioritize that, but they're in different ways. The Broncos leverage

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Speaker 4: their their elite positional size to basically just post you

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Speaker 4: up from anywhere on the floor, and then they crash

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Speaker 4: the offensive boards relentlessly, specifically the trio of Tyson degenhrt

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Speaker 4: Omar Stanley and Cam Martin that's the leader of that team.

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Speaker 4: They can definitely score on post upsets against Colorado, but

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Speaker 4: I'm undersure exactly how successfully they'll be able to do so,

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Speaker 4: because you know, Eddie Lampkin is an above average low

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Speaker 4: block defender. Javon Hadley is a big guard who can

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Speaker 4: defend post upsets pretty much one through five, same with

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Speaker 4: kJ Simpson. He's got size. Da Silva is the one

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Speaker 4: matchup he can really get exposed by, like elite post creator,

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Speaker 4: which is likely the main reason that Colorado's post up

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Speaker 4: defensive metrics are closer to average than elite. But they

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Speaker 4: also should be able to keep the Broncos off the boards,

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Speaker 4: which is huge against Poise, and I would be surprised

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Speaker 4: if we see Max Rice get hot from deep against

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Speaker 4: Colorado's excellent three point defense, and on the other end,

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Speaker 4: Boise same thing. They run a switch everything defense, but

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Speaker 4: the Broncos are much worse at defending secondary actions. Specifically,

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Speaker 4: their numbers against like cutting and handoff sets are brutal

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Speaker 4: on a per possession basis. They're also they're big across

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Speaker 4: the board, but they are more big in the backcourt

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Speaker 4: and a little bit smaller on the front court. They

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Speaker 4: run like six foot eight and six foot eight, so

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Speaker 4: they're their interior defense can get exploited.

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Speaker 3: It is vulnerable.

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Speaker 4: I mean they allow one point two points per.

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Speaker 3: Shot at the rim.

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Speaker 4: I run a sixty five percent field goal percentage at

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Speaker 4: the rim and forty five percent in the paint. All

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Speaker 4: of that ranks in the body bottom twenty percent of

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Speaker 4: Division one teams, and that's not good against the Buffs,

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Speaker 4: you know, who will run straight downhill on. Boise is

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Speaker 4: also brutal at defending in transition because they're so reliant

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Speaker 4: on the offensive boards, they don't usually get that back

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Speaker 4: that fast. They were the worst in the Mountain West

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Speaker 4: and fast break points per game allowed around eleven. They're

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Speaker 4: one point one to five transition points per possession allowed

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Speaker 4: was the fourteenth worst nationally. So the Buffs could, you know,

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Speaker 4: run like healthy this matchup. Colorado is healthy, They're dangerous,

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Speaker 4: they're red hot, and they have some decent matchups to

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Speaker 4: exploit in Dayton and if they get past Boise, I'm

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Speaker 4: going out on the limb and saying that Colorado can

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Speaker 4: make a real run here. Between Florida and Marquette's injuries,

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Speaker 4: Texas Tech and Kentucky's high variants offenses and non existent defenses,

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Speaker 4: I think Colorado could make it to the Elite eight.

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Speaker 4: And I'm on the edge of my seat in saying

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Speaker 4: that Texas A and M could pick off Houston in

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Speaker 4: the second round. So all of a sudden, I'm thinking

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Speaker 4: Colorado could make a Final four. Of course, you know

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Speaker 4: they haven't. They haven't won run much on the road

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Speaker 4: this year. They don't have a lot of good wins.

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Speaker 4: I think they have like two Ken Pop Top fifty wins,

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Speaker 4: both against Wazoo. But I guess I'm ready to get

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Speaker 4: burnt with these Buffs.

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Speaker 3: I really love them.

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Speaker 2: All Right, We'll go from a team that potentially has

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Speaker 2: Final four, you know, sleeper potential, to two sixteen seeds

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Speaker 2: that are just happy to be here. Grambling State Montana State.

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Speaker 2: The Bobs are a three and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 2: This game begins and ends with one stat it's turnovers.

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Speaker 2: Grambling turns it over more than any team in the

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Speaker 2: entire country eighteen percent of their possessions, and with a turnover,

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Speaker 2: and Montana State can turn you over, they force it

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Speaker 2: at the sixty first highest clip in the entire country,

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Speaker 2: and the Bobs usually need those extra possessions because they

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Speaker 2: get killed on the glass.

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Speaker 1: They almost never get offensive boards themselves.

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Speaker 2: They're three hundred and fifty seventh nationally in that regard,

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Speaker 2: and they give up a decent amount of second scoring opportunities.

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Speaker 1: But Grambling is weak on the glass themselves.

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Speaker 2: I don't see this being a situation where they can

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Speaker 2: burn the Bobs in terms of any of their deficiency.

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Speaker 2: And when Montana has the ball, they can attack a

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Speaker 2: pretty decent grand defense by bombing away from three. You know,

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Speaker 2: the Bobcats shot thirty six point four percent from long

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Speaker 2: range and the Tigers are a middling perimeter defense.

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Speaker 1: So one final.

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Speaker 2: Note in terms of a head to head comparison, Montana

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Speaker 2: State sixty first nationally in shooting efficiency. It was enough

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Speaker 2: to get them to the top of the heap in

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Speaker 2: the Big Sky Tournament Grambling two hundred and fifty ninth.

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Speaker 2: So it's been the case many times between sixteen seeds

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Speaker 2: in the play in that it becomes a rock fight.

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Speaker 1: Nobody can put the ball in the basket.

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Speaker 2: I would rather have the team that is a significantly

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Speaker 2: better shooting team with multiple options. I put this spread

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Speaker 2: right on the cusp of two possessions, so I'm snapping

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Speaker 2: up the three and a half here, and I also

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Speaker 2: think it's reasonable to use the minus one to sixty

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Speaker 2: five money line as a sweetener. Whether it's with that

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Speaker 2: Colorado play that you just mentioned, we're stretching it across

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Speaker 2: back to the Tuesday games as well. I think Montana

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Speaker 2: State is a strong play here. They're playing their best

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Speaker 2: basketball and Grambling. Like I said, it's just difficult to

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Speaker 2: sustain anything offensively or put runs together when you're that

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Speaker 2: sloppy with the basketball. So in terms of this Whack

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Speaker 2: versus Big Sky matchup, I think this is one program

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Speaker 2: in Montana State that's just going to outclass them.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 4: Certainly lean your way. I'm a little worried. Montana State's

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Speaker 4: in tier defense always worries me. But the core has

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Speaker 4: been here and done that before. What this is their

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Speaker 4: third straight ncaaight appearance. I know it's a new head coach,

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Speaker 4: but I think some of the main players, but yeah, Grambling,

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Speaker 4: you're right. They're sloppy with the ball, they're just gonna

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Speaker 4: throw it away. And Montana State they're gonna just be

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Speaker 4: more steady, especially with that core, as long as they

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Speaker 4: can you know, defend the interior.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I think they'll get through here.

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Speaker 2: For Tande McGrath, I'm Mike Calibery's This has been the

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Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus podcast, brought to you by bet

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Speaker 2: mgm our. Playing recap is now in the books, which

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Speaker 2: down on. We also have live shows coming up on Thursday, Friday,

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Speaker 2: To make sure that you're prepared with the latest news,

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Speaker 2: injury updates, line movements, all that good stuff to make

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Speaker 2: sure we keep you in the black this March. All right,

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