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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing spect I'm sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash toto.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to winning.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine if you want

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Speaker 1: to fall. And we are under way.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always by Brandon

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Speaker 2: Anderson for today's best Bets episode. But before we get

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Speaker 2: to those, We've got a few trends and talking points,

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Speaker 2: a little roundtable across the league which will give you

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Speaker 2: a few bets on as well. But I will start

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Speaker 2: with a little Thanksgiving action and a few uh let's

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Speaker 2: call it some sides and some accessories. A bit of

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Speaker 2: a starter here, So public sides, which we use from

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Speaker 2: Action Network betting data, which is fifty one percent of

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Speaker 2: tickets or more are five hundred ats or better every

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Speaker 2: year since twenty fourteen on Thanksgiving, and eleven of the

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Speaker 2: past twelve years since two thousand and five, we'd actually

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Speaker 2: had nine teams closed with seventy four percent of tickets

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Speaker 2: or more on Thanksgiving nine and oh straight up nine

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Speaker 2: and oh against the spread. Now we also talk about

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Speaker 2: favorites for a second, since two thousand and four favorites

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Speaker 2: on Thanksgiving forty eight and nine straight up, thirty eight

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Speaker 2: nineteen against the spread. So Brandon, just to start it off,

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Speaker 2: and I know you're going to get into so many

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Speaker 2: bets and so many things here, but historically you just

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Speaker 2: kind of follow the crowds here. But any thought on.

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Speaker 1: That, Yeah, I'm I'm really a trend better. On Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: probably as much as any point in the season. You'll

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Speaker 1: want the favorite, unless it's Dallas. You want the public side,

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Speaker 1: you want the big favorite. Especially I'm sure you'll have

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Speaker 1: a s out on that when we get there. This

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Speaker 1: is the spot, you know, like everybody and their uncle

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Speaker 1: wants to have a bet on the Thanksgiving game. It's Lions,

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Speaker 1: it's Cowboys. Every year. You know what's coming, and for once,

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Speaker 1: it's like the one holiday that they treat us right,

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Speaker 1: and we just kind of follow what everybody thinks is

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. Seems like it kind of happens on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: So we got a feast of bets today. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: go game by game through Thanksgiving and the Black Friday

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Speaker 1: game kind of separate section here with all these bets

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Speaker 1: at the top, and don't get a Sunday later on too.

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Speaker 1: But I'm excited for Thanksgiving football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all thirty two teams, we're gonna hit them all.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna start with Thanksgiving. But let's go through some

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Speaker 2: of these little bit odd bets that they have on

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Speaker 2: just the Thanksgiving slide. So they've got like highest or

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Speaker 2: lowest scoring team, highest scoring game, biggest blowout, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: So I'll let you start and then I can kind

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Speaker 2: of ended with any thoughts I have, but of these

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Speaker 2: kind of what's the word I'm looking for? Like a

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Speaker 2: why can I think of the word here? Like anything different,

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Speaker 2: like a bit of a prop bet, let's call it.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there is a word. I can't think of the

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Speaker 1: word right now. Either.

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Speaker 2: It's it's exotics. Exotic needs. There we go, exotics.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exotic bets, exotics. Sorry, So I got two of

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Speaker 1: these for you. So if you look around like these

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Speaker 1: are popping more and more so most books are gonna

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Speaker 1: have something like, like you said, highest or lowest scoring team,

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Speaker 1: biggest blowout. We got like most passing yards on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: for a player, most rushing yards, most receiving yards. There's

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of stuff, so you're just kind of like,

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Speaker 1: you know, have a little fun get it.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: These are pizza money bats a couple dollars. I got

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Speaker 1: two of them for you, number one, and I'll kind

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Speaker 1: of make the case for these more later in the

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Speaker 1: episode and we get to these games. Lowest scoring team

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I like these bets because we only have

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Speaker 1: six options here, so it is kind of a limited sample.

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Speaker 1: Give me the Dolphins the Sunday evening game or the

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Speaker 1: Thursday evening game. Sorry in Green Bay plus six twenty

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Speaker 1: five full circle for me. I took the Dolphins before

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Speaker 1: the season as the highest scoring team in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Has not gone well. It's got better lately. Miami looks

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Speaker 1: pretty good. But this is really if you like this bet,

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Speaker 1: if you like them to be the lowest scoring team. Look, Giants,

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Speaker 1: Cowboys is a low total, so that's buying value on

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Speaker 1: the other four teams. If it's not one of them.

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Speaker 1: It looks wintery in Green Bay to a take Avella

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Speaker 1: all one four straight up when it's below forty degrees

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Speaker 1: one and three against the spread. In two of those games,

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Speaker 1: Miami scored seven to three points. So if it's just

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Speaker 1: a cold, blustery, awful Miami game, close your eyes. You've

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Speaker 1: pictured it, you can see the game. We've watched the game.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that one hits, So that one is one of

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Speaker 1: my favorites plus six twenty five and then I mentioned

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Speaker 1: the yardage ones. Favorite yardage prop is Jared Goff to

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Speaker 1: be the passing leader, Jameson Williams to be the receiving

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Speaker 1: yardage leader. We'll get back to him, and then Josh

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Speaker 1: Jacob's rushing. That one's at seventy to one to hit

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Speaker 1: all three of those, so we're probably not gonna hit these.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason their price so long. But you can

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Speaker 1: have a little fun thing. What do you like on

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Speaker 1: the slate here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so funny. You just said Lois scoring Miami

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Speaker 2: was on my list as well, so we are on

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Speaker 2: the same page there. The only other thing I was

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Speaker 2: even thinking about was Green Bay being the highest scoring team,

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Speaker 2: but I don't necessarily think I want to take both

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Speaker 2: sides of that. But at six twenty five and like

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Speaker 2: three fifty or four to one, maybe you hit one

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Speaker 2: of those bets depending on the outcome. I thought a

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Speaker 2: really fun one, and obviously you could take the money

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Speaker 2: line here. But Chicago at twelve to one to be

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Speaker 2: the highest scoring team I thought was a little interesting.

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Speaker 2: Some weird things can happen. The other thing, I like,

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Speaker 2: they have a prop Zadarias Smith and Micah Parsons to

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Speaker 2: each get a half a sack. It was four to one.

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Speaker 2: Earlier today we talked about Micah getting to the Vedo

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Speaker 2: if he starts, and Zadarias Smith would be a nice story.

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Speaker 2: So I thought that was a fun prop as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Cala Williams leads the NFL in sacks. Also, I

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Speaker 1: actually have literally that exact prop in my notes under

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Speaker 1: those games when we get there. So I like that

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Speaker 1: one as well. I think it's plus three fifty. We're

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Speaker 1: on the same page on that one, too.

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Speaker 2: Amazing great synergy. Let's keep rolling here. So anybody who

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Speaker 2: plays on Black Friday or Thanksgiving, the question is, right now,

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Speaker 2: how would you want to invest in those teams? Either

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Speaker 2: season awards, futures markets, Like, what's the right bet to

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Speaker 2: hit right now? With those teams playing first before the weekend.

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Speaker 2: I have an angle here, but I'm curious what you think.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a couple of nibble angles here, and I

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Speaker 1: didn't have anything that really stuck out. I still like

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelce to leave the league in receptions. Not many

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Speaker 1: books have that market up, so I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you can find that one. If you like the Giants

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Speaker 1: against the Cowboys playing fewest wins or worst record, that

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Speaker 1: might be a good way to play that one. If

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Speaker 1: the Giants get the win, that kind of opens that

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Speaker 1: market up a little bit. And then another one. I'm

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Speaker 1: really stretching the rules here because there wasn't a name

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Speaker 1: that stuck out on the awards. I want an award

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Speaker 1: for you. Thanksgiving is about thankfulness, so how about we

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Speaker 1: be thankful for Damar Hamlin healthy and playing football. He's

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Speaker 1: not playing on the games. I'm cheating. He doesn't fit

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Speaker 1: the rules here. Dobbins looks like he may actually miss

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Speaker 1: a little time with that injury that we saw Monday night.

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Speaker 1: It's down to the quarterbacks. But couldn't it beat DeMar Hamlin. Still,

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Speaker 1: He's fifty to one for Comeback Player of the Year.

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Speaker 1: The Bills are possible one seed. They're in the mix

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Speaker 1: all the way. He's gonna have some moments. How about

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Speaker 1: just like like Sunday Night is when they play against

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Speaker 1: the Niners. We talked about that game on Sunday Night

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Speaker 1: last week. One big play, one big interception, one big

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Speaker 1: fumble recovery in prime time. Couldn't one play get people

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Speaker 1: talking about Demor Hamlin and all that would take is

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Speaker 1: just a little bit of momentum back into the spotlight again.

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Speaker 1: I think fifty to one for an award they changed

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Speaker 1: the rules because we didn't give it to him last year.

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Speaker 1: I just think it's too long, So let's be thankful

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Speaker 1: for DeMar Hamlin. All right, Yeah, I cheated, but that's

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Speaker 1: that's my pick. Would you like here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I don't necessarily have like anything really tied to

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Speaker 2: these games specifically, But the one thing I was looking

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Speaker 2: at was the passing yards leader, because we do have

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Speaker 2: buys coming up with Lamar and strat On buys with

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Speaker 2: them kind of in the mix. So I was gonna

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Speaker 2: pull back on them and say, Okay, Burrow and Gino

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Speaker 2: makes sense to leave the category. But I thought Stafford

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Speaker 2: at fourteen to one and Baker at twenty three to one,

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Speaker 2: and Baker has a great pass against schedule. The rest

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Speaker 2: of the year. I thought, we're interesting flyers in that

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Speaker 2: category and the last one, and this is a complete

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Speaker 2: flyer because they've already had their buy so they're going

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Speaker 2: to play through. You assume Jamar Chase is going is

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Speaker 2: He's I think three ahead or so in the receptions

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Speaker 2: TV category. I was going to take a flyer on

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Speaker 2: Kittle at seventeen to one. He's four back right now.

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Speaker 2: Obviously San Francisco's in all sorts of flucks, but they're

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Speaker 2: gonna need to pass the ball. They're up against teams

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Speaker 2: that they're gonna need to score points against, and everyone

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Speaker 2: else seems to be a little banged up, so I

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Speaker 2: thought Kittle was an interesting play there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think on those the season leader markets. What

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Speaker 1: I like about both of those. With the passing yardage,

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Speaker 1: you can make up two three hundred yards in one

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Speaker 1: game if you get a really big game where the

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Speaker 1: other quarterback throws for like one eighty and a wintery

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Speaker 1: game or something, that market can swing a lot. With

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Speaker 1: the receiving one. I like that. Jamar Chase is on

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Speaker 1: a team that might still get shut down at some point,

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Speaker 1: right if they keep losing a couple more games. He

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Speaker 1: suddenly rolls an ankles, like, all right, you're done for

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Speaker 1: the year. Let's see you next year, will get you healthy, Like,

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Speaker 1: you need a path to overcome the gap here. Chase's

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Speaker 1: gap is pretty big, but touchdowns. There's not a lot

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Speaker 1: of guys in contention there if it's not him, So

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Speaker 1: I like, you have to find the path for the

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Speaker 1: guy you like, but you're betting against the other guy

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Speaker 1: that's leading to so I feel like there are paths

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Speaker 1: against the winners there, and then you get the path

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Speaker 1: right for the guy you're betting, then double win there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the same year. I also think going against the

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Speaker 2: buy is interesting, assuming like some of these teams have

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Speaker 2: one more game to play, all right, Thanksgiving time, Chicago

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Speaker 2: at Detroit. Now Detroit is listed as a ten point

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Speaker 2: favor right now, they would be the biggest favorite for

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Speaker 2: the Lions on Thanksgiving since nineteen six And you had

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Speaker 2: mentioned it before. It's not there at the moment, but

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Speaker 2: teams favored by over ten points are eleven to zero

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Speaker 2: against his spread in the wildcard era when it's ten

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Speaker 2: or more, they're fifteen and fort ets since nineteen eighty,

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Speaker 2: so still not shabby at all. Chicago Detroit what do

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Speaker 2: you like here? You're this is your best death.

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Speaker 1: I love the Lions Lions minus ten. I would like

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Speaker 1: the Lions really anywhere up to about thirteen where I

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Speaker 1: think this should be. It did get up to eleven

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week. It's been bet back down a

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Speaker 1: little bit. This is when I mentioned on a look ahead,

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Speaker 1: I still think we're gonna get towards thirteen because that's

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Speaker 1: some teaser protection. I don't think books want this sitting

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Speaker 1: out there where you can tease it down below the touchdown.

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Speaker 1: To start off your weekend. The Bears offense on the

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Speaker 1: road is dead last by DBOA. They're coming off an

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Speaker 1: overtime game. Trends are always bad against those teams, the

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Speaker 1: Lions of the number one pass defense. So you have

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Speaker 1: the defense the worst offense on the road, this great defense,

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Speaker 1: even without Ayan Hutchins. That's a tough sell for Caleb Williams,

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Speaker 1: as good as he was last week. The tough spot

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Speaker 1: for that Bears run defense down to thirtieth on the

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Speaker 1: season by DVA. That is not the matchup you want,

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Speaker 1: not against the Lions who are just going to kind

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Speaker 1: of run the ball and control the game like they do.

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Speaker 1: And you mentioned some of the trends. I'm a trends

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Speaker 1: better and Thanksgiving. This is a Thanksgiving trends smash spot.

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Speaker 1: So some trends I've got here last twelve Thanksgivings. The

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Speaker 1: lines I've covered eight out of twelve on Thanksgiving, including

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Speaker 1: four to one ats as favorites, all my favorite trends

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I exclude Dallas because Dallas breaks all the metrics.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to them in a second. Non Dallas Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: favorites thirty to ten against the spreads since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and seven, seventy five percent, covering by almost a touchdown

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Speaker 1: a game. I think this is the game that you've

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Speaker 1: waited all year for, right this is the one that's

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Speaker 1: on the calendar you want to win on Thanksgiving. So

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Speaker 1: I mean those fairs are taking care of business. Favorites

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Speaker 1: of seven or more nineteen and seven ats seventy three

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Speaker 1: percent again but almost a touchdown. You mentioned if this

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Speaker 1: gets to ten and higher, even better, and then public

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Speaker 1: favorites you said that one already as well. Lion's over

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Speaker 1: seventy percent of the bets right now. Public non Dallas

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Speaker 1: favorites twenty three and five against the spread since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and seven, eighty two percent hit rate. Concluding from

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Speaker 1: your article seven to zero when it is seventy four

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Speaker 1: percent spread bet or higher, and the Lions are getting

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Speaker 1: very close to that, I think they could get there

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Speaker 1: by kickoff bad spot for Chicago coming off the overtime game,

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Speaker 1: coming off a division game where it's within three points.

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Speaker 1: Teams like that forty three percent against the spread the

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Speaker 1: following game. And in the same stat you're hearing everywhere

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Speaker 1: from every place because it keeps hitting Jared Goff indoors

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Speaker 1: with the Lions thirty two to ten ATS now in

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Speaker 1: the regular season, seventy six percent hit rate. Since last Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: the Lions and Jared Goff have covered thirteen out of

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Speaker 1: fifteen times. Indoors lines are nine to two in the

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Speaker 1: first half ats. The Bears are one of the worst

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Speaker 1: teams ATS in the first half. I think that sets

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Speaker 1: up for Thanksgiving feasts. The Lions get out early, they

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Speaker 1: run the ball, they control the game. Lines miss ten.

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Speaker 1: I think this is an easy one.

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Speaker 2: Also, what we've heard, Dan Campbell is a straight shooter,

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Speaker 2: and he said multiple times this week I believe the

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Speaker 2: lines of well seven straight on Thanksgiving. He's never one

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Speaker 2: on Thanksgiving. Jared Goff has never won on Thanksgiving. They

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Speaker 2: want to give the guys a break after this, and

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Speaker 2: they want it to be a fun break, So I

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Speaker 2: believe him. I think they're completely motivated. All right now

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Speaker 2: to the best game on Thanksgiving. And that's a joke.

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Speaker 2: Giants at the I got props in these I got props,

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Speaker 2: go go.

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Speaker 1: I got two props in this game, so receive it

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Speaker 1: from each side. Don't worry. No props in the Giants

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Speaker 1: Cowboys game. So one prop on the Lions. I like

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Speaker 1: Jamison Williams here. I mentioned him at the top in

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Speaker 1: the section where I liked him for receiving leader. So

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Speaker 1: Bears bottom five by d against wide receiver twos. They

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Speaker 1: play a lot of single high safety Top five of

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Speaker 1: the NFL last two weeks. Jordan Addison eight catches one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two yards, Christian Watson four for one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty. That's the sort of style receiver Jameson

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Speaker 1: Williams is catching those long passes. Both those guys kind

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Speaker 1: a pass of sixty year longer. Bears have Jalen Johnson.

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Speaker 1: He can keep aman Aara in check only under one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards. Last year. In both games combined, Jameson had

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Speaker 1: a touchdown a thirty two yard catch against the Bears.

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Speaker 1: That now he's stepped up as a better wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: Two there. So you look at his numbers, it's very

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Speaker 1: all over the place. Jamison Williams has two games over

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Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty yards, gets two games under ten yards.

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Speaker 1: So what do you do with that? Well, if you'll

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Speaker 1: get the home road splits, it's a little more interesting.

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Speaker 1: Five road games, four targets a game, two and a

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Speaker 1: half catches thirty four yards. Four home games, seven targets

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Speaker 1: a game, four catches one hundred and four yards a

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Speaker 1: game at home where he is here, he's had a

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Speaker 1: fifty yard catch in all four home games this season,

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Speaker 1: seven of those eight longest catches at home. So I

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Speaker 1: don't want media outcomes here. I don't want just the

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Speaker 1: traditional over receiving yards or the over longest reception. I

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Speaker 1: want some alts. So these lines are still kind of

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Speaker 1: populating as early in the week, but let me give

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Speaker 1: you some examples here. Seventy plus yards plus two thirty five.

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Speaker 1: He's gone over that mark all four home games this year,

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Speaker 1: seventy nine at least in every game. One hundred yards

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Speaker 1: is plus seven to fifty and again one of those

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Speaker 1: special Thanksgiving bets Jamison to be the Thanksgiving receiving yards leader.

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Speaker 1: So of those six teams, eleven to one, if he

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Speaker 1: gets one hundred yards, he's gonna a pretty good shot

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Speaker 1: of doing that. So I like that one, and then

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Speaker 1: it won't be at many books. But longest reception, that

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Speaker 1: one's there. I want the all longest reception. I want

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Speaker 1: the fifty yard catch. I see a plus nine to

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Speaker 1: fifty on that. So I'm sprinkling like quarter units and

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Speaker 1: all these just hoping for maybe one or two big

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Speaker 1: Jameson Williams plays before I get to the other one

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Speaker 1: of your thoughts on Jamison here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the only thing I have to say is he's

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Speaker 2: not Dan Campbell, isn't afraid to spread it around, and

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Speaker 2: he's also not gonna take his foot off the pedal.

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Speaker 2: So however you get to those numbers, they're not going

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Speaker 2: to just go to the run to end the game.

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Speaker 2: He's it's like he's trying to get higher in the

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Speaker 2: College Football playoff rankings. He's really obscure. It feels like

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Speaker 2: every week. But what's what's your other bet?

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Speaker 1: The other one is similar. You're gonna hear it from

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Speaker 1: last week. It's the Dj Moore receptions escalator a little

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Speaker 1: bit not quite as aggressive this time. But let's start

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Speaker 1: with just the main bet over four and a half receptions,

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Speaker 1: the exact same place it was last week. I don't

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Speaker 1: think books have adjusted yet. Last week we got seven

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Speaker 1: plus receptions plus three fifty You got seven catches again

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Speaker 1: on seven targets again. Two weeks with Thomas Brown, exact

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Speaker 1: same output. First ten weeks of the season, eight point

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Speaker 1: three a dot for Dj Moore under twenty yards after

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Speaker 1: the catch per game. His first game with Thomas Brown

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Speaker 1: under one a dot and fifty six yak. Last week

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Speaker 1: three point six a dots, so a little bit higher.

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Speaker 1: Got a couple plays late eighty one yards after the catch.

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Speaker 1: So under Shane Waldron, he's got sixty one percent of

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Speaker 1: as passes with Thomas Brown ran the offense, he's got everything.

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Speaker 1: Fourteen targets, fourteen catches. It's not even that he's getting

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Speaker 1: way more looks, is getting way better looks, so he's

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Speaker 1: getting these receptions. I don't need the yards, necessarily need receptions.

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Speaker 1: The Lions, even though their pass defense is really good

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Speaker 1: have all the most receptions two wide receivers in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: They also play the most man coverage, so that's good

356
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Speaker 1: for YAK receivers like DJ Moore. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: this line's gone far enough yet. Hasn't moved really, so

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Speaker 1: I like the over four and a half minus one fourteen.

359
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Speaker 1: I'll play that a little less aggressive on the escalator.

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Speaker 1: I think the Lions defense is a little better against

361
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Speaker 1: like downfield wide receiver. One would be more of the

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Speaker 1: type that you want to hit here. So not quite

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Speaker 1: as much as I liked against the Vikings. But seven

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Speaker 1: catches is plus three twenty. Again, we've hit that on

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Speaker 1: the nose both Thomas Brown games, so of course I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna play that. Plus I gotta touch it. It's eleven

367
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Speaker 1: to one. Djmore made us a lot of money last week,

368
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Speaker 1: so we can afford it. But I think mostly on

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Speaker 1: just the over four and a half and a little

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Speaker 1: bit at the seven plus at three twenty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, this is a little more script dependent

372
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Speaker 2: than Jamison. If the Chicago goes up, they're gonna run

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Speaker 2: the ball more. This is a their their trailing and

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Speaker 2: they need to move the ball downfield, and that's exactly

375
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Speaker 2: what I ended up happening last week, and it worked

376
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Speaker 2: all right. Finally moving on to the next game. Here,

377
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Speaker 2: Giants at Dallas. So Giants won, I mean Dallas won.

378
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Speaker 2: End covered on Thanksgiving last year. They haven't won and

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Speaker 2: covered consecutive games on Thanksgiving since two thousand and eight,

380
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Speaker 2: two thousand and nine behind Tony Romo. Give me more here, Brandon.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm giving you not the Cowboys is a Thanksgiving

382
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Speaker 1: tradition to bet against the Cowboys. I lost on it

383
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Speaker 1: last year. I ain't doing it two years in a row.

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Speaker 1: Like you said, give me the Giants plus four plus

385
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Speaker 1: three and a half if it's all you can get,

386
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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna take the money line to like this

387
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,479
Speaker 1: game stinks, but it's Thanksgiving afternoon, it's the Cowboys. Of

388
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Speaker 1: course we're watching it, so of course we're betting it.

389
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Speaker 1: Total is thirty seven and a half in falling. We're

390
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Speaker 1: getting some combination we don't know who of Cooper Rush,

391
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 1: Trey a Lance, Tommy Devido, dr Lock. We don't know

392
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Speaker 1: who's playing. It's all bad. If it's all bad, why

393
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Speaker 1: can't it be the lass other bad team that's plus

394
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Speaker 1: four instead of the other other bad team. They're both

395
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Speaker 1: bottom ten DVA offense and defense. Maybe the only thing

396
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,679
Speaker 1: good on either team is Brandon Aubrey, right, the kicker

397
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Speaker 1: and the special teams For Dallas. Actually one thing that

398
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 1: is actually pretty good here. The Giants have run the

399
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Speaker 1: football really well over the last six weeks. Tyrone Tracy

400
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 1: has been really good. I looked at some of his props.

401
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 1: He's can be good in the passing game here too.

402
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 1: Dallas is dead last against running back receiving their bottom

403
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:45,120
Speaker 1: five against running backs and rushing the football. Reverse home

404
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 1: road splits here too. The Cowboys have been awful at

405
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Speaker 1: home this season. Giants defense has been much better on

406
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Speaker 1: the road. I just think the Giants have just as

407
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Speaker 1: good of a shot here. Had the Micah Parsons sack

408
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: note in here as well. I don't really mind that. Actually,

409
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Speaker 1: if it's not Tommy DeVito, I think I like the

410
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 1: Giants better if it's Drew Locke. Sorry to Tommy, but

411
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Speaker 1: I actually feel like I might upgrade a little bit

412
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Speaker 1: if we get that he's been on the injury report

413
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Speaker 1: this week, and then just the trend Cowboys on Thanksgiving

414
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 1: have covered two of the last thirteen Thanksgivings. They're failing

415
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Speaker 1: to cover by nine points a game in that stretch.

416
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Speaker 1: So if the line's three and a half for four,

417
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 1: I got to take the money line too. Dallas defense

418
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,119
Speaker 1: has allowed at least twenty five points in five straight

419
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. Teams like that are eighteen and thirty

420
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: three ATS thirty five percent the next game. The Giants

421
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 1: have failed to cover six in a row. Teams with

422
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 1: at least a five game ATS losing streak fifty nine

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Speaker 1: percent ATS. Giants aren't this bad. This is just kind

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Speaker 1: of a Bilo spot and they sell any Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Ever,

425
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Speaker 1: so Giants to cover, and then I see a plus

426
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Speaker 1: one eighty on the money line, I'll split my bet

427
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: go half and half that way too.

428
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Speaker 2: This is a bit of an embarrassment factor, probably, like

429
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Speaker 2: the Giants absolutely crushed last week, had no points at

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Speaker 2: the half, it was looking terrible, and then on the

431
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 2: other side, Dallas had one of the best victories of

432
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 2: the season, a really high moment. So this is very

433
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 2: NFL for the Giants to come out and beat Dallas

434
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: the following week on a short week on Thanksgiving. So

435
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: let's see it happen, all right, No props, So let's

436
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 2: move on to the next game, Miami at Green Bay.

437
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 2: The story here is going to be the weather right now.

438
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 2: Average temperature at Lambeau Thursday night expected to be about

439
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: twenty six degrees d wind has actually gone up now

440
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 2: like ten to twelve miles an hour. So what's the

441
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 2: angle here with Dolphins?

442
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: Pack Yeah, I like the Packers a lot here. Packers

443
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,159
Speaker 1: minus three, I'll take if you need to get the

444
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:44,719
Speaker 1: three and a half, I don't mind it. I think

445
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 1: the Packers win this one relatively comfortably. We're kind of

446
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: pricing these teams as equals right now, as he's like, hey,

447
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 1: you know who could be sneaky in the playoffs, the

448
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,719
Speaker 1: Packers if they got in, and the Dolphins if they

449
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: got in. I'm not sure I see them quite that

450
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 1: way yet. Dolphins on the seat in with Tua healthy

451
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 1: even in just those games, still around league average offensively,

452
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: still outside top ten by DVA passing. I know you're

453
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 1: seeing lots of those EPA and success metrics over the

454
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 1: last few weeks. All right, Well, who they're playing. They

455
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 1: dropped thirty four in the Raiders and on the Patriots.

456
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:21,479
Speaker 1: Terrible defenses. DVOA I like a little better sometimes than

457
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 1: EPA success rate, especially in small samples, because DVA takes

458
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: opponent into account, those other stats don't do that necessarily.

459
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 1: So IV think Miami against a better opponent here against

460
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 1: the Packers, tougher task here. Packers offense is elite, not

461
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 1: Miami this year. It's green Bay. They're top five DVA,

462
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 1: top five offense, top five passing, top five running. They're

463
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: the team here. And you mentioned the wintery stuff. We

464
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: talked about the top. If it's cold and blustery, what

465
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 1: do you want to do? Run the football. Miami has

466
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: not run well all season long. That's just not a

467
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 1: thing this team does well. Green Bay has run great.

468
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 1: Bay has won multiple games this year just running the

469
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 1: football with Malik Willis hand the ball. If it doesn't matter,

470
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: just run the football. Dolphins are bottom ten run defense.

471
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: They're bottom five on first down, which I think is

472
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 1: especially bad because the Packers can just run early where

473
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: they're especially good second and five, third and two. We're

474
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: just moving the chains, grind it up. You can picture

475
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 1: the game happening already again. Non Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving

476
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: thirty and ten ats seventy five percent. Thanksgiving Night favorites

477
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 1: thirteen and four all times seventy seven percent. This could

478
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: maybe end up a public side too. It's the Packers

479
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: at home after all. Mike McDaniel thirty six percent against

480
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 1: the spread against teams above five hundred, So I like

481
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: the Packers here. I do not think these are equal

482
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: teams on an upswing. I think the Packers are the

483
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 1: better side, so I'm happy to get them at the

484
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: key number three. Then grab it, all right, and.

485
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: You have one prop left for us with this game,

486
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 2: and the hint here with this prop. I don't know

487
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: if anyone saw Tyreek Hills Twitter today, but he was

488
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 2: actually talking about this guy in general. So what's your prop?

489
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't love the tweet honestly. Because of that,

490
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: I'm still played John news Smith's over forty and a

491
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 1: half receiving yards. John news Smith, the new wide receiver

492
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: one in Miami right as supposed to be Tyreek Hill,

493
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 1: and then maybe Jayalen L. Wadolin for a while, we're

494
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 1: playing the A Chanin train. We're getting his receiver props now. Suddenly,

495
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 1: John new Smith the last two weeks fifteen catches, one

496
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty eight yards and three scores, nineteen targets

497
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: lots of short stuff getting those ten of eight chan

498
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: looks that he was getting Packers against tight ends. We

499
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 1: talked about this last week with the George Kittle thing.

500
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: Bottom five by dv Away for Packers defensively bottom five

501
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: against short passes. They have allowed forty two yards or

502
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: more to six of eleven tight ends. And these are

503
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 1: not great guys. These are again Brenton Strange, Josh Wiley,

504
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: Colby Parkinson, George Kittle got there six eighty two in

505
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 1: a touchdown, even with Brandon Allen. So the tight ends

506
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 1: are are cooking here. John who's been great lately, last

507
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: seven games, He's had forty five yards all but one

508
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 1: of those games, its averaging five catches sixty five yards

509
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: in that stretch. So over the forty and a half

510
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: here little nibble on eighty plus yards, he's done that

511
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: three of the last six games. That's at plus six

512
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 1: to fifty. So if you want a Dolphins side, I

513
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: like John news Smith's over receiving yards.

514
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 2: He's just a really athletic target taking the Micas Sicki

515
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 2: role in Miami. That seems to be going very well.

516
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 2: All right, Black Friday time Raiders at the Chiefs. This

517
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 2: line was thirteen. Now it's about twelve, twelve and a half.

518
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 2: The craziest stat of them all when you talk about

519
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 2: this number is the fact that the Chiefs as a

520
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 2: favorite of six points or more are six and oh

521
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 2: straight up this year and five and one against the

522
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 2: spread in those games as a favorite of above a

523
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 2: full touchdown four and oh straight up Oho to four

524
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: against the spread? What are you doing with these Chiefs

525
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 2: that seem to win every week by a point two

526
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: or three.

527
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know what to do with this game here,

528
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: so I'm not going to take a side. The number

529
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: is kind of right in that range where it's it's

530
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: definitely feels too many. But I don't want to bet

531
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. We don't who's playing quarterback. The Chiefs

532
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: have lost five straight games against the spread. Right now,

533
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: it's a pass for me, But I gotta give you

534
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: something for Black Friday. Let's go with Travis Kelcey. Gave

535
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: me some Travis kelce receiving overs. Can't give you a

536
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 1: line yet because they're not up, But here's the case.

537
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: You'll have to make your bet. Watch the app. I'll

538
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: put mine in. Raiders also bottom five against tight ends

539
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 1: they've allowed the third most fantasy tight end points just

540
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: in the last month. John Smith, our guy, we just

541
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: talked about six catches, one hundred and one yards and

542
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: two scores. That was last week against these Raiders to

543
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 1: Mike Kaseki one hundred yards and two scores. Travis Kelcey, Hey,

544
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: look it's our guy. Ten catches, ninety yards and a touchdown.

545
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: So that's a touchdown for each of those guys. Five

546
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: between them, they're a getting ninety one hundred hundred and

547
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 1: one yards. Travis kelce We've talked about this with the

548
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: receptions thing. Since Rashid Rice went out, he's been a machine.

549
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: Eight games since then, He's averaging seven and a half

550
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: catches sixty two and a half yards. So he said

551
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: at least six catches at least sixty two yards in

552
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: six of those eight games. Last week his lines were

553
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: at five and a half receptions fifty eight and a

554
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: half receiving yards. I'd take an over on both of

555
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: those if we got them. So something like six catches

556
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: sixty yards if you want to add in a touchdown,

557
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: maybe kind of get creative, But I think this sets

558
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: up well for a nice Travis Kelsey game. And you know, otherwise,

559
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 1: I'm probably following our guys at BBOC and watch some

560
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: college football on Friday as well.

561
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 2: Maybe you get some combination Kelsey and Bowers, like two

562
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 2: hundred plus things like that. That's what I'm gonna be

563
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 2: looking for.

564
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: The pastors one tight end to the next generation.

565
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 2: Well, because at the end, you can close your eyes

566
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 2: and say to yourself, you're gonna see the graphic with

567
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: both of them on both sides and them having great

568
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 2: games and that being like a discussion. So that's where

569
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 2: my head's going. Also, I'll say this before we move on,

570
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 2: please check out actionover dot com. Brandon and I both

571
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 2: have Thanksgiving articles tons of information, so make sure you

572
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 2: check all of those out before the games on Thursday

573
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: and Friday. And speaking of before we move on, here

574
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 2: a quick announcement, Action Network is running back our annual

575
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: Black Friday sale, offering our best price of the year

576
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 2: on a year long Action Pro subscription. So if you

577
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: still aren't a Pro subscriber, visit actionnetwork dot com slash

578
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 2: Black Friday to get forty dollars off a year of

579
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: pro and receive instant access to all the picks, all

580
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: the projections from Brandon Anderson to Chris Rayba to Stuckey,

581
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 2: our whole Action Network team. That's Actionnetwork dot Com Slash

582
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 2: Black Friday for the best price of the year on

583
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: Action Pro. All right, we're gonna move on here, moving

584
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 2: past Thursday, moving past Friday. We're gonna do a little

585
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: bit of a roundtable before our games for the weekend.

586
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: Just a few discussion points here. So number one, five

587
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: teams right now are clearly ahead of the field in

588
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 2: terms of the Super Bowl lots. So we're looking to

589
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: pick a long shot now. Detroit, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Baltimore,

590
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: and Buffalo are really the five teams at the top.

591
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 2: So I'll let you go first. What's an angle here

592
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 2: on a team kind of below that?

593
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had to get creative here. I'm not looking

594
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: for like team number six to number seven. Hi, you've

595
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: met me before. I'm looking for long long shot if

596
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: we want a long shot here. So you're gonna remember

597
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: this better than me. Evan before the season, and we

598
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: always have the stat going into the year that the

599
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: last like ten Super Bowl winners in a row have

600
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: started the year at like plus twelve hundred or shorter. Right, Nail,

601
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: there were five of those teams this year, I believe

602
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: you just named four of them. I'll take the fifth one.

603
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: Give me the forty nine Ers at eighty to one

604
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: to win the super Bowl. Now, look, I don't think

605
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: the Niners are gonna make the playoffs. They're like eighty

606
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: ninety percent to miss the playoffs. Right now, there's a

607
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 1: really good chance that the bet loses. Duah, it's eighty

608
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: to one. I already know that that's possible. What I

609
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: like is if I'm wrong, if the Niners start winning games.

610
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: I like them in Buffalo this week. Don't love the

611
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: blizzard that's apparently coming all the lakes effects now. But

612
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: if they get that win, get a couple easier games

613
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: after that, I believe it's the Rams and the Bears

614
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: at home, they get some momentum. We know how good

615
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: the Niners can be. If the Niners actually get into

616
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: the playoffs, it's because they started to figure it out again.

617
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: It's because this offense started to look itself again. And

618
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: at that point, you're gonna want a taste of the

619
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, who, by the way, if they get in,

620
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: probably won the division. That's the most likely pass. So

621
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 1: they're probably getting at least a home game in the

622
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: first round. Suddenly, now you got Niners probably playing like

623
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: the Lions in the second round. We saw that game

624
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: last year. We know what they can do and put

625
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: up some points in a hurry there. Niners Eagles. Potentially

626
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: if the Niners actually get to the playoffs, you want

627
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: this ticket. You will want an eighty to one shot

628
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: at this much offensive firepower, hopefully getting healthy by then.

629
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 1: I think that's the play. If you want a long shot,

630
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: go real long down the board and take a team

631
00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: that we knew is good before the season, maybe possibly

632
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: getting back there again. Who do you like here?

633
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: All right? I took two NFC and two AFC just

634
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 2: for fun. The two NFC I liked, and I kind

635
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: of wanted a longer road team, a team who's gonna

636
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: start on the road a bit longer. Odds. Washington to

637
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 2: me at fifty five to one is interesting after the

638
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: bad loss. They are top fifteen in all advanced defensive

639
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: metrics since Week seven, so they are getting better even

640
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 2: after that Dallas game and a pretty easy remaining schedule

641
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: and a buye which I do like late in this season.

642
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 2: The other NFC team with San Francisco so we were

643
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: on the exact same page there. I don't think they're

644
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: gonna make the playoffs. We've been talking about this for

645
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: literally six weeks that we like the Seattle angle the best,

646
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 2: maybe Arizona. Now, Arizona's defense looks absolutely incredible lately, which

647
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: has been a bit of a change there. But San

648
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: Francisco's price is the right one to take right now. Now.

649
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 2: The AFC one's much more fun. I think a shot

650
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 2: at Denver right now at around sixty to one is

651
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: pretty interesting if they do make the playoffs, and I

652
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: know no rookie's ever done the Super Bowl thing. We've

653
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 2: talked about that, but same defensive stuff as Washington, good coaching, schedule,

654
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: not as easy, but they do also have to buy

655
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: After the Monday night football game, I think we all

656
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 2: agree they should win against Cleveland, which is another win

657
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 2: in their category. Now the last one I'll mention this

658
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: is the fun one, and I implore everyone to put

659
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: five dollars on this whenever you see it. But I

660
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: like the Colts at three hundred to one. They have

661
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: the easiest schedule in the NFL remaining right now at

662
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 2: under thirty percent win percentage for their remaining opponents, they

663
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 2: are outside the picture. But if you don't like Houston,

664
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: which we've talked about for weeks now as we've seen

665
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: faults there, and the Colts, which we all like this

666
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: weekend in New England, you know, three hundred to one

667
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 2: or the money line in New England, you're basically kind

668
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 2: of rolling on the same path right here right now.

669
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: But that price to me is just way too long.

670
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 2: So those are the bets.

671
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: Any thoughts, Yeah, I mean what you like here too

672
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: is I can't say I can really find a path

673
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: where the Colts or the Broncos are holding the Lombardi

674
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: at the end of the year. But you don't need

675
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: that to happen for this to be a good bet.

676
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: Can we get to the AFC Championship Game? Can we

677
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 1: get to a Final four with the three hundred to

678
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: one ticket? With a long shot ticket, because now we

679
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: can add some hedges. Now we have a valuable ticket

680
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 1: that we can do something with. Not if you get

681
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: like twelve to one now or something like that, you're

682
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 1: too limited. Then you get one of these crazy long

683
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: shots here, get into the playoffs, win a home game.

684
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: Now you're cooking. Now you have real possibilities So that's

685
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: what I like there. I don't know if I see

686
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson and Bownicks dueling in the AFT Championship, but

687
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 1: if one of them gets there, then you have a

688
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 1: path and you have a valuable ticket.

689
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just looking for wonkas ticket right now. All right,

690
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 2: Philly and Baltimore. It's the game of the weekend, So

691
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: let's talk a few categories inside this game. I feel

692
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 2: like you have to start with Saquon. So right now,

693
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: he is plus one point fifty to get to two

694
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: thousand rushing yards. He is four to one to get

695
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 2: twenty one oh six, which would break the record. And

696
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 2: even if if you're looking at the MVP market, Josh

697
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: Allen plus one fifteen, Lamar two fifteen, Goff at seven

698
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: to one, with Saquon Mahomes at eight to one, that's

699
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: basically the entire market at the moment. Do you have

700
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 2: any thoughts there?

701
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, we talked about this a little

702
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: bit on Sunday night. You're buying high right now. If

703
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: you want a piece of the Saquon buzz, you are

704
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 1: buying after he just had one of the best primetime

705
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: running games ever that everybody watched everywhere, three hundred scrimmage yards.

706
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: It's just even if I like it, it's against every

707
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 1: principle in me to invest right now when the price

708
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 1: is all plumbed. It was sixty five one hundred to

709
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 1: one MVP down to ninety percent discount on the odds

710
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 1: for MVP. I just I can't do that personally. As

711
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 1: far as like the two thousand yards, the rushing record

712
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 1: two thousand yards basically working at like one hundred yards

713
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: per game. The rest of the way, well, I guess

714
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 1: start with this matchup. I don't love the matchup against Baltimore.

715
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 1: Baltimore is a pretty good run defense. I think actually

716
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: it's a good opportunity to maybe invest in some Derrick

717
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 1: Henry stock. We talked about that with opoy we saw

718
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 1: last year, much to my chagrin, on Christmas Lamar versus Purty?

719
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 1: Can I get the head to head team win went

720
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,479
Speaker 1: Baltimore's way? So too did the MVP factor. Could maybe

721
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 1: we get an opo y thing here if the Ravens

722
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 1: beat the Eagles? Could that sway Derrick Henry with the

723
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: team win with the head to head against Saquon I

724
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: don't know, could possibly play in I think this bet

725
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: is going to be a thing the two thousand yards,

726
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't mind maybe playing the under if you

727
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 1: want an angle on it, and then maybe next week

728
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: come back on the over, because guess who they play

729
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: next week, the Panthers. He might break the record next

730
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 1: week alone. He might just do all that against the Panthers.

731
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: So that's my thoughts on the game. Otherwise, I'm not

732
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 1: playing aside. This is like a super Bowl. I don

733
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: want to watch and enjoy my one side. I want

734
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: here my one bet. I want to make no lines.

735
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: Yet give me Aj Brown overs. The Ravens are dead

736
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: last against wide receiver one bit dv Away. We saw

737
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: Lad McConkie against them. I think Aj Brown is going

738
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: to give nightmares against that secondary. So that's what I

739
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: want in the game. I just hope it's a great game.

740
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 1: What do you play in there looking at here with

741
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 1: Saquan or anything else.

742
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, this game's tough for me. I would probably lean

743
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: just wanting to take the Eagles at the three three

744
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: and a half. I feel like, you know, both teams

745
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 2: are on a ridiculous stretch right now. There's no ups,

746
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 2: there's no downs. This is just a really, really great

747
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 2: game between two great teams. The one stat that scares

748
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 2: the poop out of me is Lamar has never faced Siriani.

749
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: I believe the number is thirty seven and seven straight

750
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: up for Lamar when he hasn't faced a head coach before.

751
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 2: So preparing for something you haven't seen is very, very difficult.

752
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 2: But I'll be the sucker and look at the three

753
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 2: final category before we talk, before we talk about your

754
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 2: Sunday bets. Jayden versus bone Nicks, the rookie of the

755
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 2: year has just become fascinating at right now, market has

756
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: Jane Daniels at minus two hundred, bone Nicks plus one sixty,

757
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: and then the two down the line are Rock Bowers

758
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: at forty two to one and then Caleb Bit fifty

759
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 2: to one. Any quick thoughts there.

760
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 1: You know, I try to tie myself into Bowers. Maybe

761
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 1: making a run at this thing with both quarterbacks sort

762
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: of falling off, but I don't know. We've never seen

763
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 1: a tight end win it before. It's a quarterbacks world.

764
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 1: It's really hard to see even if the top two

765
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 1: guys fall off. Maybe Cale Williams got hot at the end,

766
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: or maybe Drake may looks really good like is who's

767
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: giving it to a tight end from the Raiders that

768
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: nobody's really watching anyway, I don't know if I can

769
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 1: get there. I think this might be a spot to

770
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: still buy a little bit on Jade Daniels. I think

771
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 1: actually this week against Tennessee maybe maybe could be a

772
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: bit of a get right game for Washington. All the

773
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: conversation right now is about the cliff Cliff, and I think, actually,

774
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 1: I think that maybe is a little bit lazy and narrative.

775
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 1: I've said it too, so I'm giving myself the same thing.

776
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: I think, actually Washington's defense metrics have been slipping all

777
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 1: of the last few weeks. By looking at schedule and

778
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 1: strength of opponent, their offense is just run into some

779
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 1: tough defenses. It's a rookie quarterback facing some tough defenses,

780
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 1: which the Titans are as well. But I think it

781
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: could be a spot for Washington to kind of get

782
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 1: things right again Tennessee coming off of a big upset

783
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: division win. I think Washington still kind of moves in

784
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: the right direction. And Jane Daniels, I think just any

785
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: football analyst watching games knows who the better player is

786
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 1: here long term. And I think at the end of

787
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 1: the Day for Rookie of the Year. A lot of

788
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 1: times voters want to vote for the guy that's gonna

789
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: be the guy that like is the better player at

790
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: the end of the career. Right, you don't need Bonix

791
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: to get your Rookie of the Year award. You want

792
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 1: Jane like bo Nicks. Great, We're happy for you doing good.

793
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 1: Maybe the Broncos make the playoffs. Jane Daniels a star.

794
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 1: You want a star to be crown Rookie of the Year,

795
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: and Iron honestly think that matters to voters, So I

796
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 1: think it's a good spot to invest in him.

797
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, if you were going to take Bauers, you

798
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 2: might as well just bet him a ton of props

799
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 2: against Kansas City in a high profile game that everyone's

800
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 2: going to be watching. And that's the way you invest there.

801
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into the Sunday best bet lightning

802
00:38:55,360 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 2: round here, the lightning round. Your first game is Rams

803
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: at Saints. The stat I'm gonna give you, which is

804
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: going to roll right into probably what you're looking at here.

805
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 2: Derek Carr has actually faced Sean McVeigh three times in

806
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 2: his ENBO career. He has zero and three against the

807
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 2: spread fill in the cover of the spread by eight

808
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: points per game. Are you going with that?

809
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: I am going with it. I like the Rams here

810
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 1: a lot minus two and a half at the Saints

811
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: hopefully can get up below the key number there, three,

812
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: but I'll take the three if you need it. By

813
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 1: season one numbers, this should be pretty even teams, right,

814
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 1: Rams by DBA twentieth Saints, eighteenth Rams offense, fourteenth Saints

815
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: sixteenth defense, twenty three and twenty two. I think those

816
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: numbers are wrong. I think those numbers are right for

817
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,240
Speaker 1: the season long. But these teams are two ships passing

818
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: the night the Saints had that great early offense. The

819
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: line is a mess. Now. Your receivers are Cedric Wilson,

820
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: MVS and a guy named Mason Tipton whose name had

821
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: to look up for this segment. They were number one

822
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: defensively against wide receiver one. That's Marshawn Lattimore. He's gone now.

823
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: The defense lost Dennis Allen, not a great head coach,

824
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 1: but pretty good defensively. I know they're kind of on

825
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: this honeymoon thing with Darren Rizzy. That was Atlanta and Cleveland.

826
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are a much better team here.

827
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 1: Saints run defense has been dead last by TVA the

828
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,800
Speaker 1: last six weeks. Sean McVay teams get credit for passing.

829
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: The run game is what determines how McVay teams do,

830
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: and I think being able to run here really sets

831
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: them up well. The Rams are going the other direction.

832
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,399
Speaker 1: Offensive line finally healthy after a rough start to the year,

833
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup and Pooka and Akola healthy looking good again.

834
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,959
Speaker 1: Top five passing offense. We talked about Jared versus Brandon Fisk,

835
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: the young defensive front. This defense didn't look good against Philly.

836
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 1: It's fine. A lot of defenses haven't looked again against Philly.

837
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 1: It's a tough team to play. They've been near top

838
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 1: ten running pass defense this last six weeks or so.

839
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: So and like you said, Derek Carr, that's part of

840
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 1: why I like this matchup for the Rams. Verse in

841
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 1: the Fisk, in that pass rush. They're going to get

842
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 1: after Derek Carr, and we know that he is not

843
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,720
Speaker 1: good under pressure. So this is a really good Bilo

844
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 1: Cell high spot. The Saints are coming off with two

845
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 1: wins under Rizzy. The Rams lost to the Eagles. I'm

846
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 1: not that worried about it. Teams are just won by

847
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 1: seventeen points or more as underdogs of seven or less.

848
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: That's the Saints here, sixty four one, sixteen and three

849
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 1: against the spread, thirty six percent cover rate. Teams that

850
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 1: just won by seventeen against teams that lost by seventeen,

851
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,760
Speaker 1: that's the Rams. They are thirty nine percent against the spread.

852
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: And then Sean mcvayhoffle lost fifty nine percent as well.

853
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 1: So Saints are the better first half team if it

854
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 1: does get to three or past, I don't mind pivoting

855
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 1: to just a second half Rams play, but we're still

856
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 1: getting the minus two and a half here. Give me

857
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: Rams minus two and a half below the key number.

858
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, I don't necessarily think the

859
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 2: buye even helps the Saints, so I wouldn't even look

860
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 2: at that as a positive. If anything, starting slow could

861
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 2: be a negative. All right, next game, Bucks, Panthers. My

862
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: stat here is simple. Baker Mayfield is face all thirty

863
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: two teams in his NFL career, he is three, and

864
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: oh straight up are better against one. That is the

865
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers. He's had decent success here. What are you

866
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: going with?

867
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: Yeah? Back to old faithful here, we're gonna fade the

868
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 1: Panthers first half. I looked at just the first half over.

869
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 1: Panthers first half overs are ten to one in the season,

870
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,479
Speaker 1: best in the NFL. Bucks eight and the three. Both

871
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: these defenses are way worse than the first half. But

872
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 1: that line's twenty three twenty three and a half. Why

873
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: not just take the Bucks team total over thirteen and

874
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: a half. I do think Bryce Young is getting better.

875
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: I think the Panthers probably will score. Who cares, I

876
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:33,959
Speaker 1: know the Bucks are gonna score. Let me just play

877
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 1: that angle. I think the Bucks offense gonna do some

878
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: nasty things. This Panthers defense, Liam Cohen offense, my man

879
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 1: has been just skiing it up all season long. You

880
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: lose Chris Godwin, you lose some offensive line, doesn't matter.

881
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 1: They just keep scoring points. The Panthers are second to

882
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 1: last defense by dvaa bottom three running pass Tampa on

883
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: the season is a number seven offense. I sure did

884
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 1: not see that coming, in fact, but I really agency coming.

885
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: Is Bucky Irving in the run game has been one

886
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: of the best in the NFL the last month or so,

887
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 1: and the Panthers run defense is about as bad as anybody,

888
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 1: So I think Bucky Irving could have a big game

889
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: as well. And then the same stat we've been telling

890
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 1: you as we played this but a bunch of times.

891
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 1: The Panthers are now three and seven on the season.

892
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 1: When they win, the stats no good. When they lose.

893
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: They've allowed twenty points or more in every first half

894
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: of those seven losses, average scored halftime twenty three and

895
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 1: a half to seven. They've allowed at least three touchdowns

896
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 1: every one of those losses, except last week to the

897
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: Chiefs somehow, who settled for two reds, one field goals

898
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 1: and got twenty points. Anyway, So I like the over

899
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: first half. We've played this one a few times thirteen

900
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: and a half. All we need is two touchdowns, we're

901
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,839
Speaker 1: probably gonna get three. So just gave me Tampa's first

902
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: half team total over.

903
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: Even to Though it's a divisional game, I still feel

904
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 2: like Caroline is coming off their super Bowl, so I

905
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:56,800
Speaker 2: feel like there's gonna be some sort of Oh okay,

906
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 2: let's play Tampa Bay after trying to face the Chiefs

907
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 2: last week. All right, Houston Jacksonville. I thought this was fascinating. Obviously,

908
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: Houston ten and one first half ats entering last week

909
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 2: kind of you know, crap the bed against the Titans.

910
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 2: But as coach of the Texans, Demiko Ryans twenty two

911
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 2: to nine first half ats Stroud twenty two and seven,

912
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 2: So is that going to be your wrangle here?

913
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: It is, I'm going first half Texans. It just dipped

914
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: below the key numbers, so minus two and a half

915
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. I still don't believe in the Texans. I

916
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,879
Speaker 1: just believe him less than Jacksonville's. Jacksonville's offense just coming

917
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 1: off the bye week, like you said, another one where

918
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if it helped. Before the bye week,

919
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: they scored six points one game in seven points one game. Now,

920
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: granted that was against two of the top three defenses

921
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: by DVA, Minnesota and Detroit. Well, guess what. Guess who's

922
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 1: the third one of the top three. It's Houston. Sucks

923
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: to suck for Jacksonville playing this set of defenses, yere,

924
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,719
Speaker 1: But Jacksonville's defense itself is dead last in the league.

925
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: I think even Houston can scoring them at least early

926
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 1: where Bobby Slok gets the you know, the first fifteen

927
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: plays scripted, that's on the well, somehow Doug Peterson funeral

928
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 1: escalater hit but didn't hit for Doug Peterson. He's still coaching.

929
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: He's two and five ats after the bye week, so

930
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: it's not a good spot for him out of the

931
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: bye either. In fact, this one applied to the Rams

932
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: as well. Road favorites of under six against a team

933
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 1: coming out of bye week, so they're arrested. You're still

934
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 1: a hafty road favorite twenty eight to fifteen and two

935
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 1: against the spread, sixty five percent cover rate. I don't

936
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,760
Speaker 1: mind the full game here. Teens to have dominated this rivalry.

937
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 1: They've won six straight in Jacksonville. They've won eleven of

938
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: thirteen against Jacksonville. I prefer the first half because of

939
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: the stat that you mentioned. Texans ten and two in

940
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: the first half ats. Jaguars four and seven. Texans second

941
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 1: half spread two and ten. I don't really want Texans

942
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: second half. I don't need the back door. I don't

943
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 1: need any of that Jazz Moras happening. Give me the

944
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 1: Texans blowout or whatever they do. I think if it

945
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 1: goes well for Houston, it probably is gonna go well

946
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 1: early for them. So Texans first half minus two and

947
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 1: a half.

948
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 2: Hopefully I get right game for their defense, which got

949
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: kind of torched by Will Levis last week. Well, I

950
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 2: don't know if we know who's starting for Jacksonville at

951
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 2: them with a TVD on the screen, So hopefully some

952
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 2: sort of get right spot. All right, last game, Cardinals, Vikings.

953
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 2: What do you got here?

954
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: I said, I swore these bets off. I said I'd

955
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,320
Speaker 1: never do a first quarter bet again. But the Cardinals

956
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 1: and the Vikings both owe us first quarter money. Give

957
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: me the first quarter total over seven and a half points. Look,

958
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 1: our bets were good last week. The Raiders scored a

959
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: touchdown a minute into the second quarter. We got screwed

960
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: on that one. The Vikings scored a touchdown the first

961
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:39,919
Speaker 1: play of the second quarter. They fumble on the two

962
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 1: on the opening drive. The stats still line up here,

963
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 1: Vikings pass defense falling back a little bit outside the bottom,

964
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: outside the top ten in the last six weeks, Kyler,

965
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: I think, and maybe handle the pressure from Bran Floores

966
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 1: a little bit, create some offense. Cardinals defense, they're improved.

967
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 1: They're much better on the road. We talked about that

968
00:46:57,840 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 1: last week, or sorry, much worse on the road as

969
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 1: are here. So I think, actually these offenses can find

970
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 1: some answers and look I didn't want a first quarter bet,

971
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: but these are the top two offenses in the NFL

972
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: by a first quarter DVL way, I have to do

973
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 1: it again. That's what I played last week. Cardinals at

974
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 1: least one touchdown in seven of eleven first quarters. They're

975
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 1: averaging five point seven first quarter points a game. The

976
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: Vikings ten touchdowns and eleven first quarters. They're averaging seven

977
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 1: and a half points a game. They've scored points and

978
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: all but two first quarters, one of them last week. Unfortunately,

979
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 1: for the reasons we talked about, I think we get

980
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 1: some points here. Interesting too. Shop around. Some books have

981
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: this at nine and a half, some at seven and

982
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 1: a half for the exact same juice. Now, I think

983
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 1: they're basically like, look, if you get over seven, you

984
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 1: probably got to ten. That's how it works, right, Seven

985
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 1: plus a field goal not necessarily? How about safety? How

986
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: about three field goals? How about a miss extra point?

987
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,240
Speaker 1: We'll take the free points. You're giving me two points,

988
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: I'm taking them over seven and a half points in

989
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,760
Speaker 1: the first quarter. Cardinals, Vikings, yoe us some money.

990
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:02,319
Speaker 2: There's absolutely no sweat like a first quarter sweat when

991
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 2: no one else cares what is going on in the game,

992
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 2: and you just see that clock taking down, and of

993
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,919
Speaker 2: course the teams don't care what's going on either, because

994
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 2: they're like, let's just take it to the second quarter

995
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 2: and you're screaming your bloody head off. But all right,

996
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 2: that is the Sunday Slate. Now you've got a look

997
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 2: ahead to week fourteen. I can't even believe I'm saying

998
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 2: week fourteen at this point, but yes, week fourteen, what's

999
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: the game you're looking at?

1000
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 1: Let's walk ahead, just give it a shot.

1001
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 2: How about next week?

1002
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 1: I got Mama saut sat. Yeah. Well, one last bet

1003
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 1: for the podcast, A feast of best today, Week fourteen,

1004
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: going back to a game we just bet on two

1005
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 1: weeks ago. Not even Brown Steelers. Give me the under

1006
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 1: forty and a half. We literally just have this game.

1007
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 1: It closed Thursday night at thirty six and a half.

1008
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 1: We're four points Hira, Why are we four points higher?

1009
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 1: We watched the game. Now, look, I know there's twenty

1010
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,560
Speaker 1: seven points in the last twelve minutes, that it was

1011
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 1: ten to six with twelve minutes left. It was the

1012
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: best underread you could have until the snow came in.

1013
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 1: And there's a whole thing called snow overs when the

1014
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: snow happens, you think it's gonna go low. You get

1015
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: high scoring, hopefully no snow in this game. And I

1016
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: think we're set up pretty well. We just saw this

1017
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,920
Speaker 1: game play out. Pittsburgh's defense is really good. High Smith

1018
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: is back. TJ. A. Watt looks great. Miles Garrett, I

1019
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 1: think is maybe one of TJ. Watt's top is top competitions.

1020
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 1: Brown's defense played really well against the Steelers last game

1021
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: until the last few minutes. And then you mentioned week fourteen.

1022
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 1: Starting week fourteen forward, I've got a bunch of trends

1023
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 1: that popped for division games, and you like a lot

1024
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 1: of unders here in week fourteen to four division games

1025
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 1: home favorite of under seven points fifty eight percent to

1026
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 1: the under, total of forty to forty seven fifty six

1027
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 1: percent to the under outdoor game with a little bit

1028
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 1: of win fifty six percent of the under. Not huge trends,

1029
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: but just all nudging you in that direction. And then

1030
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,359
Speaker 1: just look at the numbers. Brown's games are averaging about

1031
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 1: forty two points. It's a game thirty seven up blow

1032
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: over half of the time for them. Steelers games are

1033
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: averaging under forty eight game thirty seven up blow about

1034
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 1: half the time for them as well. So forty and

1035
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: a half, I think that's too lie. This This only

1036
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:14,879
Speaker 1: goes one direction. Quite frankly, I think I might smell

1037
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 1: a mind shaft here. So let's get into the forty

1038
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 1: and a half. Let's get some CLB and we might

1039
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 1: come back and add a little bit later to this

1040
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: one too.

1041
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be shocked if this one didn't close under

1042
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,280
Speaker 2: that number. And I agree feel like it's a number

1043
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 2: that no one is looking at with a week ahead,

1044
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: So I think it's a good investment. All right. That's it.

1045
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 2: I feel like we've given you at least twenty to

1046
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 2: twenty five different bets in under an hour. Here a

1047
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 2: great Thanksgiving Black Friday Week thirteen slate that has been

1048
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 2: the best bets podcast here from the Action Network. I

1049
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,360
Speaker 2: am Evan Abrams. That is Brandon Anderson. We will be

1050
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 2: back next week with the Week fourteen Action. Enjoy your holiday,

1051
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 2: Enjoy your sides, enjoy your maidens. Have a good one

1052
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 2: and a good bet out there.

1053
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 3: I'll tell you bet this stuff is looking good and

1054
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 3: smell good and tasted good.

1055
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 1: We got to dig in and start eating now.

1056
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 3: It is good.

1057
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 1: But you've got a hurry because it didn't close the

1058
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 1: game time when we just like to say Happy Thanksgiving

1059
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 1: to you guys, it's back.

1060
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 3: In the studio.

1061
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1062
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1063
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1064
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:37,240
Speaker 1: hundred gambler