1 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: This is the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: on Home of the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio. 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: Welcome back. I am Dale Lolly here with Matt Williamson 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: and Matt our friend Cynthia Freeland has put together her 5 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 1: her wind total projections for the a f C and 6 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 1: the NFC um hers will be different than the Vegas 7 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: ones and all. She runs it through the computer model 8 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 1: and we'll let you know. Uh again, don't quote me 9 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: on this, but I think she runs like ten thousand 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: or a hundred thousand simulations of an entire season, which 11 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 1: of course takes four seconds on a computer or whatever. 12 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: But you know, it says of the time this is 13 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: where they're at, or even like sixty percent of time 14 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: it's a playoff team. Two percent of time they pick 15 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: up first overall, you know, like, so you come up 16 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: with a lot of not there's always be quirks in 17 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: in one regular season. This is kind of eliminated some 18 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,559 Speaker 1: of those injuries happen or whatever. So what happens with hers, 19 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: I think, and I haven't looked at the article, is 20 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: when you do that that often there won't be as 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 1: many two teams, you know what I mean? Because you've 22 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: run so many seasons that you know a guy has 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: a career year. Well, that's one of a hundred thousands, right, 24 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Uh? So she projects projects 25 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: the Bills to eleven point six wins. Their win totals 26 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 1: eleven point five. Okay, so it's right on the number, 27 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: on the number. Yeah. Um, they're the uh, the favorites 28 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: to win the a f C. They should. I mean, 29 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: they go to l A for the play the opening 30 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 1: day game against the Rams. But I don't think their 31 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: schedules all that awful. It's the first place schedule, but 32 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: the division isn't that hard. Uh. The Chiefs come in 33 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: at ten points six wins, their numbers ten point five. 34 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: I think we both lean under there. I do. Again, 35 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: I talked about that schedule for them consecutive games to 36 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: start the season against him said winning records. I know, 37 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: I know that doesn't mean anything, but it's never easy. Yeah. Um, 38 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: And again that was Warren Sharp's toughest scheduled team. Yeah, 39 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: I mean it's not gonna easy for the Chiefs. The 40 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: Chargers come in as with the third best record in 41 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: the FC ten point four wins. They're over under is ten. 42 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: I guess I can't fight that too much. I like 43 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,519 Speaker 1: where they're at. I don't know, Like, sure, it's great 44 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: to add Khalil Mack, but I don't know that he's 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: in the height of his powers and and he's had 46 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: some injuries and things. I mean, he's a nice addition, 47 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 1: but I think Herbert's just a star. The Cults come 48 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: in at uh ten wins. They're over they're over under 49 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: his nine and a half. They projected as the FC 50 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: South champions. They get four freebees. That's that's the thing. 51 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: I don't know that they're a great team. I don't either. 52 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: I think they're the best team in a bad division, 53 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: but I don't know that they're noticeably better than any 54 00:02:58,320 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: of the a f C North teams. Like if you 55 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: if you put the Steelers in the a f C South, 56 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: I would at least add one win to their total. 57 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: Probably too, probably too probably, you know, maybe more because again, 58 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: four games against Jacksonville, you're definitely a favorite in Houston. 59 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: They like, they don't play those teams this year, right, right, 60 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: and again Atlanta is the only easy game in my 61 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: opinion on the Steeler schedule. You know that I think 62 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: the Jets at home is certainly Carolina is a game 63 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: they should win. I mean, they're their favorite in all 64 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: three of those in my opinion. But I think the 65 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: Jets and Panthers have gotten better. Well I don't know 66 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: if they've closed the gap on right right, um, but yeah, 67 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: they projected as the fourth highest win total in the 68 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: a f C with ten wins, are over under nine 69 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: and a half, so that that thus far as the 70 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: biggest variants over the Vegas home it's a big one. 71 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: Do you agree that they're the best team in the South. 72 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: Do you think they're better on the Titans? Yes? I 73 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: do too. Yeah, I think Matt Ryan will play well 74 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: for them. He won't make the mistakes. Ye right. The 75 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: Ravens then come in at nine point two wins, they're 76 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: over unders nine and a half. I think it's interesting 77 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: that they're the first team in the North. Yeah. There, 78 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: she projects them as the a f C North champions, 79 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: but they're under their win total but under the wind total. 80 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: So there. I mean, there's the North is wide open. 81 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna beat each other up so much, right that 82 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: really is like right now, if I told you the 83 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: Steelers would be three and three in the North, would 84 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: you take it, Yeah, I think so, you know. I 85 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 1: mean maybe if I were Baltimore since I would say 86 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: go Fish, but I might take four and two. I mean, 87 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,679 Speaker 1: it's just tough to win the division. Well, the Steelers 88 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: went four into in the division last year, um swept Cleveland, 89 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: swept Baltimore. In fact, they have won four consecutive games 90 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: against the Ravens, but in the division. So that is 91 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: that Andy Reid thing though, just going back to the Chiefs, 92 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: he owns the West. I don't know if that's going 93 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: to continue going forward the West, right, that's a big 94 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 1: step in the right direction. The Broncos come in, they're 95 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,919 Speaker 1: they're over under wind. Total was ten, they come in 96 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: nine point two. I don't know people heard, but Jerry 97 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: Judy got himself in trouble. I guess it's he was 98 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: released today and that sounded favorable for his cause. But 99 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 1: I think Denver is a little overrated. I think they 100 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: are too. Yeah, Like I think Russell Wilson's a very 101 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: good quarterback, but he's not an elite top guy. You know, 102 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 1: He's stutter than what they had by far. But I 103 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: don't know what their roster was. One quarterback away from 104 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: being a Super Bowl Champ. I mean it's fine, but 105 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: it's not that great. Uh. Then you have the Bengals 106 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: pretty low. For the Bengals, they're over under win totals 107 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: nine and a half. They come in at nine point 108 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: one and wild she's projected nine point one. I see that. 109 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: I mean, like, it's great to rebuilt your offensive line, 110 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: but that doesn't happen overnight. And again, there's just gonna 111 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: be different expectations for Since I mentioned this last night, 112 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 1: we did this show after their Week ten by the 113 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:58,119 Speaker 1: Bengals play the Steelers, then they traveled to Tennessee, host 114 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: Kansas City, play at Tampa, and then play Buffalo in 115 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: the division. Before that happens, you're gonna lose some games there. Absolutely. Wow. 116 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: I didn't realize that until you said it again. I'll 117 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: bet you disagree with this one. At nine point one 118 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: wins or win total was eight and a half. In Vegas, 119 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: are the Raiders at nine point one? I don't see it. 120 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 1: I don't see it either. What's their right? What's their 121 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: what's their division record? Going to be? Two wins at best? Best? Yeah, 122 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: I think I would take that right now if I 123 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 1: were Vegas. That means you have to make some serious Hey, 124 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: you know in your non division games. Yeah, I know 125 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 1: they have some tough road trips to Yeah. I mean 126 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: just sitting there looking at them, like, I think they're 127 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: an eight or nine win team. Maybe they could get 128 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: to ten, but when it's all said and done, that's 129 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: probably not true. You know, if you only win two 130 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,840 Speaker 1: in your division and you know your defense isn't great, 131 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 1: or they also play the NFC West is crossover. Um, yeah, 132 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: I think they're better, but I don't think that they're 133 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: a contender all of a sudden. She said that they're 134 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 1: schedule could come down to how they do in weeks 135 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: thirteen through seventeen. They play the Chargers at the Rams, 136 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: the Patriots at home at the Steelers, and then forty 137 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: Niners and that Steeler game. They're gonna be celebrating the 138 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: Immaculate Reception on Christmas Eve. Franco is gonna be there 139 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: and right right al right on the road across country. Right, 140 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: I mean, it could be a five straight losses. That 141 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: could be a disaster, right, Yeah, And I know that 142 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: Josh McDaniel has been around the block, but he's a 143 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: new coach too, and he had great success in right 144 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: all right, Right, he's not a new new coach, but 145 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: he's a you know, they may start slow. The Dolphins 146 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: then come in at eight point nine wins. I don't 147 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: see it. Their winters eight and a half. I'm not 148 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: buying on them. I'm not either would they be. I 149 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: guess she has some second in the division. Who's your 150 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: second team in the East, Probably still New England. But 151 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: I don't I don't like any of those twings master 152 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: drop off, you know, like like the Bills go six 153 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: and on the division this year. Yeah, I'm pretty sure 154 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: the Bucks are the worst. Odds. You make the least 155 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: if you butt on the Bucks to win their division. 156 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: But I can't imagine the Bills not winning their division 157 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: if Josh Allen stays healthy. I mean, any disasters happening. 158 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: Here's two stretches for the Dolphins where I look at 159 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: this and go, who the hell are they beating in 160 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: these stretches? Okay, so weeks two through four at Baltimore, 161 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 1: Buffalo at home at Cincinnati. Then week's thirteen through sixteen, 162 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: three straight on the road. I said, they're one of 163 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: the teams of three on the road and it's awful 164 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 1: ones San Francisco. Yeah, so back to back West Coast trips. 165 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: Maybe you stay out there and then you come back 166 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: and you're on the road at Buffalo. Yeah, all right, 167 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: I saw that today. That looks like, oh, win six 168 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: to me. So if they lose the let's say they 169 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: win one of those games, lose five games in that stretch, 170 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: how are they getting to eight point nine wins happening? Right? 171 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: They are. I think there's four teams that have three 172 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: games stretch on the road, And I went and I 173 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: looked at all the parkably difficult. It's remarkably difficult, and 174 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: they're their games their teams are playing against are way 175 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 1: harder than the other teams. You know, it's hard enough 176 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: as it is. Let alone against those opponents, the Patriots 177 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: win totals eight point six. They're over under his eight 178 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: and a half. I think they lose in Miami Week one. Yeah, um, 179 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: I'm sure they'll be in it. I mean, like, what 180 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: do you think that. I'm sure there's an answer out there. 181 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: Pats at Steelers Week two? Do you think that's like 182 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: a pick them game? Probably because because people look at 183 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: thee right now. Yeah, I'd take the Steelers all day long. 184 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 1: Just say I'll go the more talented teams. I'll give 185 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: you two and a half or three. You know, if 186 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: I was making a line to be honest with you, Yeah, 187 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I I just don't see where the Patriots 188 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: look from last year. I know, I know, and I 189 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: don't think that they're I think they got worse. I 190 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: think they got worse. I agree. Uh. Then you have 191 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: the Titans at eight point six wins. Surprise there this low. 192 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: Their win totals nine and a half. I mean they 193 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: they still four games in against bad division teams. Week 194 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: split with the Cold, Week nine at the Chiefs, Broncos 195 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 1: at home, at the Packers on a short week. It's 196 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: a Thursday night game. And then they play the Bengals, 197 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: and then they play the Bengals at home. Then they 198 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: play there at Philadelphia. I mean that sounds awful, don't 199 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: get me wrong. Then they finish up their matchup they 200 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: play the Bills in Week two, the Chargers in Week fifteen, 201 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: and the Cowboys in Week seventeen. Okay, I still would 202 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: bet they have more wins than the Patriots or the Raiders. Yeah, 203 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: you know, teams that we've mentioned, they're tough to play against. Yeah, 204 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: I mean I think they're well coached, and I know 205 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: Tannehill played really poorly last we saw him, but it's 206 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: a quality quarterback, you know. Then her totals eight point 207 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: one for the Steelers. Again, there's they're over under a 208 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 1: seven and a half. That's one of the bigger variants. 209 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: That's point six. Think half of games a big deal, 210 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: but it's a big deal point six that they were 211 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: probably a number of those scenarios where they won again, 212 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: nine games, there's a lot of tens in the right 213 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: so and not many fives. Yeah, you're not getting you're 214 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: not getting those right. Uh. Then finally we get the 215 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: Cleveland and eight wins. I don't know how you'd even 216 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: project them. I mean maybe you do half the games 217 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: with Watson, or you do the first six games without 218 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: Watson or something along those lines. Well let's see half 219 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: the factory. Yeah, I'm curious what right the steel right 220 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 1: up to the eight win projection is based on what 221 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: we currently know about the Shawn Watson's availability for two seasons. 222 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: So that says that he's playing right. They're not factoring 223 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: any suspension here. Should anything major change with his status, obviously, 224 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: the Browns win total will be greatly impacted. The Browns. 225 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: The Browns have one of the tougher slates after their 226 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,319 Speaker 1: Week nine by which makes sense because they're earliest early game. 227 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: Six of their final nine games are on the road. 228 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: In a way, they did the Browns a little bit 229 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: of a favor, like when I might have my quarterback, 230 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: but it's six six of nine on the road. Ouch. 231 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: I don't think they travel far, but still old road 232 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: games at Miami Buffalo, at home Cincinnati and Week fourteen, 233 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: those are all the road games Miami Buffalo, Cincinnati. Um. 234 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: I don't know what she said about the Steelers. The 235 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: Steelers defense accounts for pent of their win total. Wow. 236 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: I bet that's a very high percent, the highest for 237 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: any teams with at least seven wins forecasts. And I 238 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 1: assume she doesn't like most analytic experts and puts more 239 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: weight on offense. So like, even if you're fifty of 240 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: your wind total based on your defense, that's more than 241 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:31,559 Speaker 1: the average. I'm not sure if I'm explained. There's a 242 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: lot more uncertainty on the offense, particularly at the quarterback position, 243 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: but also along the old line, which can't get over shattered. 244 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: I don't I don't see the offensive line being the 245 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: problem that a lot of people see seem to think 246 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: it is going to be this year. I don't know 247 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 1: that it's gonna have a huge problem jelling either. I mean, 248 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,959 Speaker 1: it's a lot of the same guys they played together. Um, 249 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: you know it's it's there are some new offensive coaches there. 250 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: You know that that's gonna be a factor. And say 251 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: what you want about Ben, I'm sure he helped the 252 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: continuity the line of hey, this guy's coming, you know 253 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. Maybe you don't get that help 254 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: from the quarterback, you know. Uh. The Jets then come 255 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: in at six point nine wins, they're over under total 256 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: is five and a half. I think I'm fine with that. 257 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: I would have them over Jacksonville. And that's a big 258 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: variants one point four variants, that's a big one. I've 259 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: heard some and it's not a reputable source, but I've 260 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: heard a couple of people say there's very split opinions 261 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: on Zack Wilson in that building staff, first front office 262 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: type thing. Here's their schedule to start the season. Ravens 263 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: at home at the Browns, Bengals at home at the Steelers, 264 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: Dolphins at home at the Packers, at the Broncos, Patriots 265 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: at home, and then the Bills. That's first nine games. 266 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: How many of those are they winning? And we talked 267 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 1: about this last segment. Chiefs have the hardest schedule in 268 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 1: league of almost certain their second I think they're thirty 269 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 1: first in terms. They're not gonna be favor in any 270 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: of those games, any of them. I bet they win 271 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 1: one if they're mean, they're dogs and all of them. Yeah, 272 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: I mean, they'll probably win. But maybe you beat the 273 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 1: Dolphins at home, or you know, the Browns don't have 274 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: to Shawn Watson a week two, Maybe you get them, 275 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: but they may be lucky to be two and six. Yeah, 276 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: and then then all of a sudden, now you're in 277 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,439 Speaker 1: New York and people are talking about firing Robert Salon. 278 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Zack Wilson's a bum. And you gotta take 279 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: you know, the Bama kid first overall next year, and 280 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 1: you know, we know how that goes. Right. Jacksonville comes 281 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: in at six point two. That's actually under their win totally. 282 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: I'm surprised. Six and a half. That seems high to 283 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: me too. That's one of the if I were to 284 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: bet on wind totals, Jacksonville is under to me is 285 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets. And then you have Houston 286 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: at four point three. That's pretty much right on their 287 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: number of four point five. I think they're a competitive team, though, Yeah, 288 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: I don't think they're junk interesting. So if I mean, 289 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: if that's the case for the Steelers, they're going to 290 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: be in it. Let's take a real quick will spin 291 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: through the NFC win totals real quickly. You got um 292 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay eleven point seven. Again, they're massive favorites to 293 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: when they're to vision. The Rams at eleven and a half. 294 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: They don't have an easy stretch, but they only have 295 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: seven road games. Nice. The Packers at eleven point one, Okay, 296 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: that's right on their number. The Eagles at nine point eight. Actually, 297 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: I'm surprised their number one in their division. That's over 298 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: their number of nine. I'm leaning towards picking them to 299 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: win division. Dallas is right behind. The Cowboys are nine 300 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: point six their ten and a half, so that's far 301 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: under their number. Dallas is they happened to mention their 302 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: schedule their first three games are awful. I'll look it 303 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: up or something, but it just it might not start 304 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: well for Dallas. But just side, they host the Bucks 305 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: and Bengals the first two games. Yeah, good luck with that. Um, 306 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: although I think they can beat the Bank that's about 307 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: very possible. Uh. San Francisco at nine and a half, 308 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: that's under their ten win to that's another tough one. 309 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: I mean, Lance, I don't know, it's not at the 310 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: same Watson level. But quarterback uncertainty, you know, like the 311 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: Steelers have quarterback uncertainty. But I'm pretty sure neither one 312 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: is gonna be Pat Mahomes, you know what I mean. 313 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: You know what I mean, Like Watson verse not Watson 314 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: is a big deal. Lance is just a huge question. 315 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: The Vikings come in at eight point nine. Is a 316 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: wild card team. I bet there, and that's when they 317 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: are too, but that's a new staff. The Cardinals come 318 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: in at eight point seven wins, that's under their win total. 319 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: The Saints are at eight point four. That's well above 320 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: their win total. I think I would bet the over 321 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: on them too. I think they're a playoff team. Uh, 322 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: you've got the Commanders then at seven point eight wins. 323 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: M hm. That wouldn't feel real confident about that. The 324 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: Lions at seven point four, which is one point four 325 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: wins over their total. That has to be the biggest descripancy. 326 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: It's a big one. That's a huge one, right, half 327 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: a wins a big one lelon one and a half. 328 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: H Then the Giants at six point five wins. That's 329 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: under their total of seven. I'd I'd bet that all 330 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: day long. Yeah, I think they got a tough, tough 331 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 1: road to ho there. The Bears at six point one, 332 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: that's under their total. Yeah, they're a bad team. The 333 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: Seahawks at five point six, so they're like the bottom. 334 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: That's under their Their win total was six, that's under 335 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 1: They still might start. Drew Locke and the Falcons at 336 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: five point five wins. Their win totals are push. I 337 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 1: don't even know what that means. I don't either, So 338 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: maybe the win totals five point five. That's why she 339 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: happens to be the same. Yeah, she doesn't mentioned Carolina 340 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:24,400 Speaker 1: though yet their last their last five point one. Boy, 341 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: I even think with Darnald they're better than Atlanta. They 342 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback right now, though there's a Seattle 343 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 1: I trust that coaching staff better. They win games, yeah, 344 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: I mean they do. They'll find a way that The 345 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: Crossters horrible though. I think they're McCaffrey stay healthy for 346 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 1: a four year. He hasn't the last got a better line. 347 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 1: He hasn't stayed healthy though it's been and it's been 348 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: hamstrings and things of that nature. You know, they wouldn't 349 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: be my worst team in the NFC though, even currently constructed. Yeah, 350 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: it's tough. You know, Baker's gonna land somewhere. But how 351 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 1: far does that move the needle for you? That much? 352 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: Not much. The only thing that makes that would make 353 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 1: that interesting is if he's in Carolina for the opener, 354 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: because Carolina opened. He pointed it out like I doubt 355 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: that was an accident too. Yeah, that's pretty cool. Yeah, 356 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: that would be That would be tremendous. That would be 357 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: tremendous because I could see Baker being the the kind 358 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: of guy that he is wanting to stick it up. Yeah, 359 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 1: something I think Steeler fans would love that too. Like 360 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 1: if you could get the Browns an unexpected loss right 361 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: out of the bat, you know, and at Baker's hands, 362 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: that's bad for Browns morality, that's you know, that's the thing. 363 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: And I've always said this about teams like the Browns 364 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 1: or the Bengals, who uh, when they're when you're trying 365 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: to build a winner and trying to build something and 366 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: you think that you're good and then you lose a 367 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 1: couple of games early and you start questioning things. Yeah, 368 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: that's like what Pursuita said last night was like I 369 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: really like that the Bengals of the first team, you know, 370 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 1: because like every team, the Steelers now are prepared starting 371 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 1: today or preparing for the Bengals. You heard last year 372 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: with coming out of the Browns because they lost the 373 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 1: Chiefs in the playoffs, and you heard guys in their 374 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 1: in their camp talking to how they opened the season 375 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: with it with the Chiefs and that was gonna be 376 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: the first of two meetings with the Chiefs last year. 377 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: They put the cart way ahead of the horse. You 378 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: don't say those You got to get into the playoffs first. 379 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: You know. The Steelers got skewered a couple of years 380 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,879 Speaker 1: ago and when they talked about a rematch with the 381 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,360 Speaker 1: Patriots in the playoffs. You can't do things like that. 382 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: You gotta take care of business first. That's um a 383 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: big Patriot thing to like during their run. I've actually 384 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: been watching that man in the Arena Brady thing the 385 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: last couple of nights and they just say it over 386 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 1: and over. He's like, every week is the exact same. 387 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: I mean, they this organization does not let us get 388 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: ahead of ourselves. They really are a one game at 389 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 1: a time, cliche type of team that's hard to do. 390 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: It largely is for the Steelers as well, and that's 391 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: why that statement, you know, I think it was Mike 392 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: Mitchell said it, and like Mike Tomlin was talking with 393 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: Tony Dungee in an interview and I think he let 394 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: his guard down a little bit and talked about that 395 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 1: as well. Um it really they try to keep that 396 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 1: same mentality there that because they they're they're feeling is hey, 397 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 1: we're the Steelers. We're gonna get everybody's best game every 398 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:11,199 Speaker 1: week because that's what happens. And we're gonna be on 399 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: primetime a lot, and nobody likes it when our fans 400 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: come in and take over their stadium to get piste 401 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: off about it and you know, kick you when you're 402 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: down to Yeah, so that's all part of it. But 403 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 1: that's the schedule. That's Uh. Those were Cynthia Freeland's win projections. Um, 404 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 1: she's good with that stuff. No, she is, has a 405 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: really good work. That's interesting stuff too. Yeah, So but 406 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for today's show and for the week. Matt. Now, 407 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: I will be back next Monday. Will be back Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 408 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: and then we'll take you into the O t A 409 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 1: schedule after that the week after that. So lots of 410 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: fun stuff happening. We'll talk about the rookie minicamps some 411 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 1: more on Monday when we get back. But for Matt Williamson, 412 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 1: I'm Dale Lali. We thank you for listening to this 413 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: edition of the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio.