WEBVTT - The Science of Beating Variants 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:08.200 Welcome pro prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. Today's main story. Researchers 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:11.440 in the UK are leading efforts to track how COVID 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:17.120 nineteen mutates. Following the evolution of the virus is critical 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:21.880 in controlling the pandemic. Scientists trying to keep tabs on 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:27.440 those mutations are in a race against time. But first, 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:36.440 here's what happened in Virus News today. One year after 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:40.080 Italy first shutdown to contain the spread of COVID nineteen, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:46.160 the country is preparing to enter a new lockdown. Prime 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.600 Minister Mario Droggi, who came to power just last month, 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:54.640 has promised to triple the pace of vaccination, but the 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:59.200 specter of fresh restrictions is a particularly unwelcome form of 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:04.319 deja vu for many in the country. The World Health 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:09.560 Organization said immunizations with the astra Zenica vaccine should continue, 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:15.920 even after at least ten nations suspended its use. The 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:20.240 vaccination halts come amid concerns that the vaccine leads to 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:24.920 an increased risk of blood clots. An expert group is 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:28.200 assessing the reports of clots in some people who had 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:34.440 received doses of the inoculation. Finally, Michigan said it would 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:40.000 begin vaccinating all people sixteen years and older starting April five. 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:45.440 The accelerated timetable was released as Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:50.000 that a mass vaccination site capable of administering six thousand 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:55.400 doses a day would open March at Ford Field in Detroit. 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:03.960 And now for today's main story. Fast moving variants of 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:08.320 the coronavirus seen in England, South Africa and Brazil have 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:14.240 sparked concern around the world. Researchers worry some may diminish 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:19.280 the potency of existing vaccines and complicate efforts to escape 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:23.840 the pandemic. As COVID nineteen cases started to climb in 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:30.720 early British scientists decided to track the evolution of the pathogen, and, 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:35.000 as health reporter James Peyton reports, this project gives the 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:40.000 country and others the chance to respond quickly if alarming 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:47.080 changes arise. The plan for the group, known as the 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:51.000 COVID nineteen Genomics UK Consortium, came together about a year ago, 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.079 but Nick Loman, a professor at the University of Birmingham, 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:57.560 says not everyone was convinced, and as the virus traveled 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.400 around the world in the ensuing months, the genetic changes 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:04.239 seemed insignificant, but then actually people thought it was a 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.280 bit of a waste time, partly because there was very 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.760 little genetic diversity, like all the genems are very very similar. 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:13.280 There was an element of you're doing a very expensive 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:17.959 stamp collecting here, you know, while there's a pandemic going on. 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:23.360 The scientists went on with the project just in case. 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:27.120 Mutations arise naturally all the time. While the vast majority 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:31.120 are innocuous, sometimes they make viruses more or less infectious. 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.800 They can even increase their power to kill. For example, 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:38.880 the flu virus that caused the pandemic, it's thought to 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:41.320 have undergone a mutation in the middle of the outbreak 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:44.440 that made it more leafal Today, the hope is that 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:47.440 rapidly analyzing the genetic material of the virus on a 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:50.400 large scale can help determine whether new versions of the 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:54.880 pathogen are becoming more dangerous. Researchers crucially wants to see 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.720 if these mutations might be able to evade or outrun 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:01.840 vaccines developed by companies such as five Maderna and Astra Zeneca. 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:10.200 Evidence that variants could pose a problem was already mounting 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:13.200 last year, but A turning point came in early December. 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.279 Scientists in the UK were studying a surge of cases 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:20.760 in southeast England and noticed something highly unusual. Changes in 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.200 the virus stuck out like a long branch from the 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:26.000 rest of the data in the family tree. Loman calls 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:30.040 it an evolutionary burst. The variant, later called B one, 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.200 was found to have more than twenty mutations. One of 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.520 the great things about having this UK data set is 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.119 that we can be pretty sure and not missing things, 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.560 you know, and not missing large fractions of the population 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:47.359 with infections because we have such dense sampling. So the 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.080 question for the for that is what happened there? Why 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:55.320 do we get suddenly a burst of twenty mutations that 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:59.560 are kind of seemingly came out of nowhere. Further examination 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.960 showed version of the virus was likely to be much 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:05.080 more transmissible. It also appeared to be on the move, 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:09.800 fanning out across the country. Six days before Christmas, Prime 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:12.880 Minister Boris Johnson delivered a solemn address to the nation. 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:16.880 He warned of a new and fast spreading variant. Standing 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:20.200 behind the podium displaying symbols for hands, face and space. 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.880 The UK's campaign to fight COVID. Johnson outlined a plan 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:27.880 to impose tougher restrictions movements and travel in the speech 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.720 broadcast on networks like the BBC. He also pointed to 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:36.559 the UK's genomics team. When the science changes, we must 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:42.760 change our response. When the virus changes its method of attack, 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:48.240 we must change our method of defense. And as your 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:51.840 Prime Minister, I sincerely believe there is no alternative open 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:57.680 to me. Without action, the evidence suggests that infections would saw, 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:03.279 hospitals would become overwhelmed, and many thousands more would lose 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:09.240 their lives. Since then, the work carried out by the 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:13.480 British organization has intensified. Today it's analyzing about thirty thousand 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:16.480 samples a week, triple the level of just a couple 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.080 of months ago. It's also more than twice the activities 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:22.280 seen in the US, even after Centers for Disease Control 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:26.080 and Prevention head Rochelle Wallinski stepped on the accelerator. The 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:29.599 Biden administration meanwhile announced nearly two hundred million dollars in 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:33.080 funding to track variants. Sharon Peacock is director of the 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:36.200 UK Consortium. She and her colleagues planned to expand training 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:40.320 around the world for technicians, policymakers and others, while also 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:44.680 strengthening partnerships with similar operations. She worries some countries will 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.599 get left behind that would put them at a disadvantage 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:51.880 in detecting mutations that might undermine immunization campaigns, not just 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.560 in those regions but everywhere. So we're reaching a point 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.719 in the pandemic where it's possible that we have a 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:02.839 divided world where some parts of the world have ready 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:06.120 access to vaccines and also genome sequencing, and so that 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:08.960 they compare the information up for the two and get 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.000 the most effective vaccine roller that they can in other 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.360 parts of the world where there's limited vaccine availability but 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:19.720 also very limited almost no sequencing available, and so they're 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.760 they're working without knowledge of what variates are occurring in 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:28.120 that country. Nowhere is safe until we know exactly what's 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:31.080 happening across the world and everyone is protected, and that 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:35.040 means genome sequencing. The World Health Organization has been vigilant 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:38.000 over the past year. It's working with countries to bolster detection, 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:42.720 shipping samples to labs, and providing supplies, guidance and funds. Still, 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:46.160 Loman says the global approach is patchy and wealth isn't 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:49.680 necessarily a prerequisite. The Democratic Republic of Congo has a 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.960 good monitoring system, driven by its work in combating ebola. 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:56.760 Others do not. The system works best if everyone is 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:00.560 equipped to share genetic data, track emerging variants, and take action. 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:03.320 We want as many eyes on this as possible. Is 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.800 actually a relatively small number of people that do this work, 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:10.160 and so you know, we really want everyone that knows 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:15.160 me of ourgy and knows immunology, knows genomics to be 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:18.880 to be looking at this data all the time to 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:22.160 kind of spot the next the next emergence of something interesting. 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:26.400 The UK organization shares its information through a global database. 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:29.800 Almost half of that coronavirus data has come from Peacock's group. 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.760 But massive genome sequencing alone isn't enough. Jeremy far Our 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.360 is director of UK based research foundation Welcome. He met 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:40.560 with the British scientists a year ago in London to 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:43.840 discuss their plan. He says the analysis must be connected 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:47.320 to broader public health and disease tracking efforts, the whole 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:52.280 issue of genomic surveillance, so we can track these variants today, 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.319 tomorrow and for in fact, for years to come. It's 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:58.080 going to be absolutely critical. Um that needs to go 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.200 on at a global level. It needs and this is 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:03.840 really important. I think it needs to be locally owned. 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:08.559 This has to be convened, coordinated at a global level. 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.400 The data needs to be shared and it but it 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:19.000 also needs to be shared equitably. A year later, scientists 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:22.080 are wrestling with a different set of uncertainties. While developers 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.200 are optimistic they can keep pace with the virus and 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:28.280 tweak their shots quickly if necessary, the future is unclear. 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:33.120 The possibility the world will need coronavirus vaccines at regular intervals, 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:36.880 just like flu shots that require annual reformulation books increasingly 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:42.079 likely peacocks. As researchers. Understanding of the viruses increased considerably 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:44.800 since the crisis erupted, but there's still a lot to 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.640 learn in the next phase of the pandemic. She sees 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:50.920 a few different potential scenarios for how the virus evolves 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.920 from here. Are we going to see a plateau in 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.840 that so we know what we're dealing with. Oh, a 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:02.000 better situation where us really involves out of kind of 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.440 fitness and becomes less fit, so it becomes more like 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:07.920 the common cold. The worst case scenario is that the 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:10.440 virus actually has more in store for us, and that 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:14.960 it becomes it could cause more serious disease. And we 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:18.040 don't know the trajectory of the virus at the moment. 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:21.760 The coming minds are going to be critical. Health officials 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.680 in the UK have detected ten cases of a concerning 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:28.080 variants that originated in Brazil and more twists and turns 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.559 are seen as inevitable. Peacock points to a couple of 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:34.760 mutations when in South Africa that have shown the ability 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.800 to diminish, though not overcome, the power of vaccines. The 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:41.480 risk of vaccines at the moment I believe to be low, 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:44.120 and the key is to get the vaccines that we 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:46.680 have at the moment rolled up as fast as possible 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.439 to as many people as possible. That gives us the 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:53.600 best chance of really controlling COVID nineteen cases in the world, 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:57.120 and that's the best way of reducing variance arising because 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:59.840 they don't have the opportunity to go through an infections 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:04.240 side flin therefore developed mutivations. The stakes are high for Britain. 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:07.040 The UK Project and the country's efforts to secure and 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.720 roll out vaccines have been bright spots for a country 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.160 that has faltered in other ways. Britain has the highest 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.320 death toll in Europe and has faced intense scrutiny for 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.160 what critics see is a string of missteps earlier in 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.880 the pandemic. Now Prime Minister Johnson has declared that an 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:25.680 end to the crisis is in sight. He plans to 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:29.320 ease lockdown rules, keeping a close eye of mutations will 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:32.760 remain an important part of the strategy. Countries like the 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:36.240 UK will need that surveillance, not just in this crisis, 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:49.960 but the next one as well. And and and that 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:52.600 was James Payton. And that's it for our show today. 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.480 For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 0:11:56.840 --> 0:12:01.520 visit Bloomberg dot com Flash Coronavirus and if you like 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:04.080 the show, please leave us a review at a rating 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:07.840 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:12.119 help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis podcast 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:17.000 is produced by Tophur Foreheads, Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:21.920 Special thanks to John Lawerman. Original music by Leo Sidrin. 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:26.360 Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.840 is Bloomberg's head of podcasts, Thanks for listening.