1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: Welcome pro prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. Today's main story. Researchers 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: in the UK are leading efforts to track how COVID 3 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: nineteen mutates. Following the evolution of the virus is critical 4 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: in controlling the pandemic. Scientists trying to keep tabs on 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: those mutations are in a race against time. But first, 6 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: here's what happened in Virus News today. One year after 7 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: Italy first shutdown to contain the spread of COVID nineteen, 8 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: the country is preparing to enter a new lockdown. Prime 9 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: Minister Mario Droggi, who came to power just last month, 10 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: has promised to triple the pace of vaccination, but the 11 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: specter of fresh restrictions is a particularly unwelcome form of 12 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: deja vu for many in the country. The World Health 13 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: Organization said immunizations with the astra Zenica vaccine should continue, 14 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: even after at least ten nations suspended its use. The 15 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: vaccination halts come amid concerns that the vaccine leads to 16 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: an increased risk of blood clots. An expert group is 17 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: assessing the reports of clots in some people who had 18 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: received doses of the inoculation. Finally, Michigan said it would 19 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: begin vaccinating all people sixteen years and older starting April five. 20 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: The accelerated timetable was released as Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced 21 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: that a mass vaccination site capable of administering six thousand 22 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: doses a day would open March at Ford Field in Detroit. 23 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: And now for today's main story. Fast moving variants of 24 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: the coronavirus seen in England, South Africa and Brazil have 25 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: sparked concern around the world. Researchers worry some may diminish 26 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: the potency of existing vaccines and complicate efforts to escape 27 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: the pandemic. As COVID nineteen cases started to climb in 28 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: early British scientists decided to track the evolution of the pathogen, and, 29 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: as health reporter James Peyton reports, this project gives the 30 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: country and others the chance to respond quickly if alarming 31 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 1: changes arise. The plan for the group, known as the 32 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen Genomics UK Consortium, came together about a year ago, 33 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 1: but Nick Loman, a professor at the University of Birmingham, 34 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: says not everyone was convinced, and as the virus traveled 35 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: around the world in the ensuing months, the genetic changes 36 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,239 Speaker 1: seemed insignificant, but then actually people thought it was a 37 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: bit of a waste time, partly because there was very 38 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: little genetic diversity, like all the genems are very very similar. 39 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: There was an element of you're doing a very expensive 40 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 1: stamp collecting here, you know, while there's a pandemic going on. 41 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: The scientists went on with the project just in case. 42 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: Mutations arise naturally all the time. While the vast majority 43 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: are innocuous, sometimes they make viruses more or less infectious. 44 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: They can even increase their power to kill. For example, 45 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: the flu virus that caused the pandemic, it's thought to 46 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: have undergone a mutation in the middle of the outbreak 47 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: that made it more leafal Today, the hope is that 48 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: rapidly analyzing the genetic material of the virus on a 49 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: large scale can help determine whether new versions of the 50 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: pathogen are becoming more dangerous. Researchers crucially wants to see 51 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: if these mutations might be able to evade or outrun 52 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: vaccines developed by companies such as five Maderna and Astra Zeneca. 53 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: Evidence that variants could pose a problem was already mounting 54 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: last year, but A turning point came in early December. 55 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 1: Scientists in the UK were studying a surge of cases 56 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: in southeast England and noticed something highly unusual. Changes in 57 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: the virus stuck out like a long branch from the 58 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: rest of the data in the family tree. Loman calls 59 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: it an evolutionary burst. The variant, later called B one, 60 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: was found to have more than twenty mutations. One of 61 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: the great things about having this UK data set is 62 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,119 Speaker 1: that we can be pretty sure and not missing things, 63 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: you know, and not missing large fractions of the population 64 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 1: with infections because we have such dense sampling. So the 65 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: question for the for that is what happened there? Why 66 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: do we get suddenly a burst of twenty mutations that 67 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: are kind of seemingly came out of nowhere. Further examination 68 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: showed version of the virus was likely to be much 69 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: more transmissible. It also appeared to be on the move, 70 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: fanning out across the country. Six days before Christmas, Prime 71 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: Minister Boris Johnson delivered a solemn address to the nation. 72 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: He warned of a new and fast spreading variant. Standing 73 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: behind the podium displaying symbols for hands, face and space. 74 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: The UK's campaign to fight COVID. Johnson outlined a plan 75 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: to impose tougher restrictions movements and travel in the speech 76 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 1: broadcast on networks like the BBC. He also pointed to 77 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:36,559 Speaker 1: the UK's genomics team. When the science changes, we must 78 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: change our response. When the virus changes its method of attack, 79 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: we must change our method of defense. And as your 80 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: Prime Minister, I sincerely believe there is no alternative open 81 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: to me. Without action, the evidence suggests that infections would saw, 82 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: hospitals would become overwhelmed, and many thousands more would lose 83 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: their lives. Since then, the work carried out by the 84 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: British organization has intensified. Today it's analyzing about thirty thousand 85 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: samples a week, triple the level of just a couple 86 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: of months ago. It's also more than twice the activities 87 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 1: seen in the US, even after Centers for Disease Control 88 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: and Prevention head Rochelle Wallinski stepped on the accelerator. The 89 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: Biden administration meanwhile announced nearly two hundred million dollars in 90 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: funding to track variants. Sharon Peacock is director of the 91 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: UK Consortium. She and her colleagues planned to expand training 92 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: around the world for technicians, policymakers and others, while also 93 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: strengthening partnerships with similar operations. She worries some countries will 94 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,599 Speaker 1: get left behind that would put them at a disadvantage 95 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: in detecting mutations that might undermine immunization campaigns, not just 96 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: in those regions but everywhere. So we're reaching a point 97 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 1: in the pandemic where it's possible that we have a 98 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: divided world where some parts of the world have ready 99 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: access to vaccines and also genome sequencing, and so that 100 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: they compare the information up for the two and get 101 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: the most effective vaccine roller that they can in other 102 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: parts of the world where there's limited vaccine availability but 103 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: also very limited almost no sequencing available, and so they're 104 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: they're working without knowledge of what variates are occurring in 105 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: that country. Nowhere is safe until we know exactly what's 106 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: happening across the world and everyone is protected, and that 107 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: means genome sequencing. The World Health Organization has been vigilant 108 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: over the past year. It's working with countries to bolster detection, 109 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: shipping samples to labs, and providing supplies, guidance and funds. Still, 110 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: Loman says the global approach is patchy and wealth isn't 111 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: necessarily a prerequisite. The Democratic Republic of Congo has a 112 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: good monitoring system, driven by its work in combating ebola. 113 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: Others do not. The system works best if everyone is 114 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: equipped to share genetic data, track emerging variants, and take action. 115 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: We want as many eyes on this as possible. Is 116 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: actually a relatively small number of people that do this work, 117 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: and so you know, we really want everyone that knows 118 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: me of ourgy and knows immunology, knows genomics to be 119 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: to be looking at this data all the time to 120 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: kind of spot the next the next emergence of something interesting. 121 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: The UK organization shares its information through a global database. 122 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: Almost half of that coronavirus data has come from Peacock's group. 123 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: But massive genome sequencing alone isn't enough. Jeremy far Our 124 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: is director of UK based research foundation Welcome. He met 125 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 1: with the British scientists a year ago in London to 126 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 1: discuss their plan. He says the analysis must be connected 127 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: to broader public health and disease tracking efforts, the whole 128 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: issue of genomic surveillance, so we can track these variants today, 129 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 1: tomorrow and for in fact, for years to come. It's 130 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: going to be absolutely critical. Um that needs to go 131 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 1: on at a global level. It needs and this is 132 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: really important. I think it needs to be locally owned. 133 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: This has to be convened, coordinated at a global level. 134 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: The data needs to be shared and it but it 135 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: also needs to be shared equitably. A year later, scientists 136 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: are wrestling with a different set of uncertainties. While developers 137 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: are optimistic they can keep pace with the virus and 138 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: tweak their shots quickly if necessary, the future is unclear. 139 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: The possibility the world will need coronavirus vaccines at regular intervals, 140 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: just like flu shots that require annual reformulation books increasingly 141 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: likely peacocks. As researchers. Understanding of the viruses increased considerably 142 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: since the crisis erupted, but there's still a lot to 143 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: learn in the next phase of the pandemic. She sees 144 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: a few different potential scenarios for how the virus evolves 145 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: from here. Are we going to see a plateau in 146 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: that so we know what we're dealing with. Oh, a 147 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: better situation where us really involves out of kind of 148 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: fitness and becomes less fit, so it becomes more like 149 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: the common cold. The worst case scenario is that the 150 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: virus actually has more in store for us, and that 151 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: it becomes it could cause more serious disease. And we 152 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: don't know the trajectory of the virus at the moment. 153 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: The coming minds are going to be critical. Health officials 154 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: in the UK have detected ten cases of a concerning 155 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: variants that originated in Brazil and more twists and turns 156 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,559 Speaker 1: are seen as inevitable. Peacock points to a couple of 157 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: mutations when in South Africa that have shown the ability 158 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: to diminish, though not overcome, the power of vaccines. The 159 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: risk of vaccines at the moment I believe to be low, 160 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: and the key is to get the vaccines that we 161 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 1: have at the moment rolled up as fast as possible 162 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: to as many people as possible. That gives us the 163 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: best chance of really controlling COVID nineteen cases in the world, 164 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 1: and that's the best way of reducing variance arising because 165 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: they don't have the opportunity to go through an infections 166 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: side flin therefore developed mutivations. The stakes are high for Britain. 167 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: The UK Project and the country's efforts to secure and 168 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: roll out vaccines have been bright spots for a country 169 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: that has faltered in other ways. Britain has the highest 170 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 1: death toll in Europe and has faced intense scrutiny for 171 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: what critics see is a string of missteps earlier in 172 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: the pandemic. Now Prime Minister Johnson has declared that an 173 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 1: end to the crisis is in sight. He plans to 174 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: ease lockdown rules, keeping a close eye of mutations will 175 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: remain an important part of the strategy. Countries like the 176 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: UK will need that surveillance, not just in this crisis, 177 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: but the next one as well. And and and that 178 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: was James Payton. And that's it for our show today. 179 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 180 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com Flash Coronavirus and if you like 181 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review at a rating 182 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 183 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:12,119 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis podcast 184 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: is produced by Tophur Foreheads, Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. 185 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: Special thanks to John Lawerman. Original music by Leo Sidrin. 186 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 187 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts, Thanks for listening.