1 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: Used. 2 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 2: Everybody, Welcome in to the Daily Juice podcast. If you 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 2: are new here, my name is Matt Pereltz. Thank you 4 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 2: for watching or listening. We appreciate it. Hit the like button, 5 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 2: subscribe to our YouTube channel Betting Pros, or leave a 6 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: review on Apple if you like the podcast, let us 7 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 2: know what I can do better, what you like, what 8 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: you don't like on Apple. I don't think Spotify lets 9 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: you do a review. You can do a five star, 10 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 2: you can give it a rating, but you can't like, 11 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 2: leave an actual review. 12 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: But Apple you can do me a favor. 13 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 2: I do read them, so it's nice to see positive 14 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: and negative either or I like to hear what you 15 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: guys think about the podcast. I do read the comments 16 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: on the YouTube channel. Some of them are nuts, some 17 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 2: of them are crazy, in particular with some of you 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 2: guys who think that the NFL and Patrick Mahomes are 19 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 2: incahoots with the books in Vegas. Did you know that 20 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: there's more money bet outset of Vegas than in Vegas? 21 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: Now when you add up all the states that are legal, 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 2: so like Vegas is New York, Vegas is New Jersey, 23 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: Vegas is Arizona, Vegas is what can't really say Vegas anymore? Right, 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: I get it, It's like Kleenex. But did you know 25 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: that FanDuel and DraftKings, the two biggest sports books, do 26 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 2: not operate in Las Vegas. They are not licensed to 27 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: operate in Las Vegas. So you know all those like payback, 28 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 2: you know those deposit bonuses, you know all those refunds 29 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 2: that you see on social media all the time. Guess 30 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 2: what doesn't happen here in Vegas. Those things don't happen 31 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 2: in Vegas. Why because those books don't operate here in 32 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 2: Las Vegas. Did you know that bet MGM in Caesars 33 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 2: have different licenses, thus different risks, froom risk rooms Here 34 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 2: in Las Vegas. The book you use for BETMGM and 35 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 2: the book that I use for BETMGM are different books, entirely, 36 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 2: different people making the lines entirely. So let's pump the 37 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 2: brakes on the conspiracy theory ten hat craziness going on 38 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 2: in the YouTube section. Some of you guys are off 39 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 2: the deep end when it comes to this stuff. This 40 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 2: podcast one Last Night Seattle Easy minus one and a 41 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 2: half up one unit on the week, and this podcast 42 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: is also being brought to you by Omaha Steaks Dot 43 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 2: com Ourtele sponsors the world's best beef, naturally aged for 44 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 2: the ultimate and tenderness, juiciness and flavor. Save big with 45 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: fifty percent off site wide savings going on right now. 46 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 2: With a semiannual sale, you get fifty percent off the 47 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: site plus an extra thirty percent dollars thirty dollars off. 48 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 2: Excuse me, not percent thirty dollars off. With the promo 49 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 2: code Juice. Five generations of family owned expertise means uncompromised 50 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 2: equality you can trust, all backed by their unconditional one 51 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 2: hundred percent money back guarantee. Promo Code Juice. During the 52 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: semi annual sale, fifty percent off and thirty dollars off 53 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 2: your order. Minimum purchase may be required. Promo Code Juice. 54 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: All right, so Seattle wasn't easy to play. All of 55 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 2: a sudden, I'm hot in the NFL. I've hit five 56 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 2: straight unit bets one unit bets, so okay, we'll take it. 57 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 2: It'll I told you flip eventually right now, thirteen and 58 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 2: fourteen down, I think only one unit now, like one 59 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 2: point two is something like that units, So like we're 60 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 2: close to almost being flat for the NFL, which is 61 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: awesome because we're up nearly ten units in college football, 62 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 2: so that's tremendous. So prop bets are a little bit 63 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 2: up and down, but they're always a little up and down. 64 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: That's why I bet a quarter a unit on NFL 65 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 2: prop bets. I'm not very good at betting prop bets, 66 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 2: and I know that, so I do limit because of 67 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 2: the variants and the injury likelihood and all of the 68 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: crap that goes into betting for props and whatnot. So 69 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 2: we'll see where we go. Thursday, we have nothing to 70 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 2: bet on but baseball. I want to say something here 71 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 2: at the top before we start in the Major League 72 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: Baseball playoffs, which begin today. I've got three bets for 73 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: you guys here coming up. I love baseball. 74 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: I do. I love baseball. 75 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 2: Grew up playing it, grew up going to Fenway Park, 76 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: grew up appreciating the skill that is needed to play 77 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: the game, the incredible strategic nuances that are inside the 78 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: game that only real baseball people see, the little things, 79 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 2: the leads, the leans, the looks, the sounds. It's all incredible. 80 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 2: It's really hard not to be extremely romantic about baseball. 81 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 2: Baseball's hard to bet this year in the regular season, 82 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 2: I wound up profitable. I don't know how, but I 83 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 2: did one twenty three in one thirteen, I was ten 84 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: games over five hundred, and I won a grand total 85 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 2: of one point eighty one units. Now, as I mentioned 86 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 2: all summer, if I just broke even, and that opened 87 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: up basketball and college football and hockey, you know the 88 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: sports that I really do well with, Well, that's great 89 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 2: because that lets us really go. And that's why the 90 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 2: podcast is up over twenty five units since I've been back. 91 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: So we've had a good return. We've had a good run. 92 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 2: It's been fun. I love the game. I love it. 93 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 2: It's just really hard to bet, so I do crack 94 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 2: joke going. I got a bet baseball. It's because it's frustrating. 95 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 2: I have a love hate relationship with it. It's frustrating. 96 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: It's hard. 97 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 2: But you know, the playoffs begin and I'm going to 98 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: zero out my record. Let's see what I do in 99 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 2: the playoffs. No guarantee I make money in the playoffs. Okay, 100 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 2: we've got three bets going today. I may go zero 101 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 2: to three. I'm just going to tell you straight up, 102 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 2: it's hard Major League Baseball betting. Baseball is like algebra 103 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 2: two betting playoff Baseball is like calculus or pre calculus. 104 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 2: It's really hard. The books have a ton of information. 105 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 2: The books have everything they need. There is model after 106 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 2: model after model. The numbers are razor sharp. I mean, 107 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: we're talking about one run on either side of totals. 108 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 2: We're talking about you know, it's crazy come from behind 109 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 2: victories in game betting. Maybe your best friend when it 110 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 2: comes to this stuff, to watch the game a little 111 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 2: bit and see how it's going, taking a dog, taking 112 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 2: plus plus on both sides and whatnot. Okay, we got 113 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 2: four games today. I've got bets on three of them 114 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 2: that I want to give you guys here for the podcast. 115 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 2: Couple of quick things accounting wise, If you are in 116 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 2: our Daily Juice NFL Picks contest, there are two of 117 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 2: you who are tied at the top with four losses. Okay, 118 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: that's the top. We've got a long way to go. 119 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: There are a ton of I think there's some of 120 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 2: like twenty two people or something are in third place. 121 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 2: Is like two tied at the top, three tied per second, 122 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: then like a twenty spot of tied for third. Okay, 123 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 2: who seven weeks twenty eight picks potential like twenty two 124 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 2: and six. I think there's like twenty two people who 125 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 2: are twenty two and six, so you're all still in 126 00:06:58,080 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 2: its long way to go. 127 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: It's an eight teen week schedule. 128 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 2: We are only here through week four, so if you're 129 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,799 Speaker 2: not doing great, don't worry about it. There's seven picks. 130 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 2: There's plenty of time to come back. That's why I 131 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 2: wanted to have it be seven picks. So there's a 132 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 2: lot of volatility. If you go one and six one 133 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 2: one week, you can turn around and go six and 134 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: a six and one seven, and oh you can make 135 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: up you know what you did. So that's where we 136 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: are for that. The Milwaukee Brewer bet that I have done. 137 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: I don't understand why so many of you are having 138 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 2: such a difficult time understanding this bet. I'm gonna be honest. 139 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 2: I do this a lot, but I do this a 140 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 2: lot with my other show, The Bostonian Versus the Book, 141 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 2: where I will bet strategically and make plays by putting 142 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 2: down a position to then work off the said position. 143 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 2: I know a lot of you are new to betting. 144 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 2: I know a lot of you haven't come up to 145 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 2: this level. This is sort of master's class. I have 146 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 2: been working with Dave Sheripan, who is my co host 147 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 2: from the Boston Name Versus of the book. I've been 148 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 2: working and being very close to him for about five 149 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 2: years now. Dave spent twenty years behind the counter. I 150 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 2: am extremely thankful for him his teaching, literally his friendship, 151 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 2: but also his willingness to talk out bets with me 152 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 2: and him and I go at it on air and 153 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: off air about different plays and picks we've done. I mean, 154 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 2: if you guys say, if you're having trouble with the 155 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 2: Milwaukee Brewers bet, I'm not even going to come near 156 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 2: the exact of bets that I'm going to do and 157 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 2: I've done. Okay, I'm not even going to come near 158 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 2: that To explain why you would make multiple bets on 159 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 2: different positions sixty to one, one hundred to one, two 160 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 2: hundred and one, Why you would do that. I can't 161 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 2: even start to do that because you can't handle one 162 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 2: bet one position I'm taking. You all want to come 163 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 2: up and act like you know how to make a line. 164 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 2: Stop acting like you know how to make lines. I'm serious, 165 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 2: it's really something that you have to understand what you 166 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 2: don't know. So often I am impressed by people who 167 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 2: acknowledge what they don't know. 168 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: And for gamblers, you don't know what a line, how 169 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: to make a line. You don't know. Okay, I've watched it. 170 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 2: I've talked to you enough book makers in my life 171 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 2: here that you simply don't know. You think you know, 172 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 2: but you don't know. Because here's the thing. The bookmakers 173 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: don't know what the line's going to be in the 174 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 2: next round or the next round of the playoffs, because 175 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: so many things can happen. Woodruff got scratched from the 176 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 2: wild Card series yesterday. Some books adjusted, some books didn't. 177 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 2: Some books thought it was a big deal. Some books didn't. 178 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: You know what the Brewers will still in any way, 179 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,079 Speaker 2: don't worry about it. Some books adjusted. We don't know 180 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 2: because sports, every time we turn on the TV set 181 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 2: or we go to a game, we don't know what's 182 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 2: going to happen, and the book makers don't either, So. 183 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: We don't know what the numbers are going to be. 184 00:09:58,600 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: We don't know. 185 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 2: If the Brewers rip the Diamondbacks and beat him quick 186 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 2: six nothing, six nothing, they go into the Dodgers series, 187 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 2: what's the number? 188 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: I don't know. 189 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: The Dodgers in the summer were heavy favorites to beat 190 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 2: everybody in the summer, the Dodgers had a pitching staff, 191 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 2: which they don't right now. 192 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 1: Dodgers have a hell of an offense if. 193 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 2: The Brewers can pitch, and maybe they're holding Woodroff out 194 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 2: to have him get healthy to pitch against the Dodgers. 195 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: So you know what we got the first round. We're good. 196 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 2: We can beat these guys without having to worry about Woodroff. 197 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 2: Get him ready for the next series. What's the number then, 198 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 2: So don't tell me what I can and cannot do. 199 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: Don't tell me my math doesn't work out. Don't tell 200 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 2: me that what we're doing is dumb. Don't bet it. 201 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 2: Just keep it to yourself. I don't need to hear 202 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 2: it from anybody in the discord channel. I'm serious. I 203 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 2: don't need to hear it in the comment section. How 204 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 2: much you had to think you know as to what 205 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 2: I'm doing and why it's wrong. I've talked this out 206 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 2: four or five, six, seven times. Check to see what 207 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 2: the plays could be. I don't know what the players are. 208 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:05,319 Speaker 1: Going to be yet. Okay. 209 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 2: The only thing is we took the other side on 210 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 2: the d Backs at plus one p fifty four Okay, 211 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 2: we have one unit committed, one unit committed on either side. 212 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 2: If the Brewers win, we lose one unit. Now the 213 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 2: next time we're going into the Dodgers series. I don't 214 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 2: know how many units I might bet. I may bet 215 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 2: ten on the Dodgers. 216 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: I don't know. 217 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 2: We'll figure it out when we get there as to 218 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 2: what the play is going to be, what the math 219 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 2: says to do, because the math is changing. But there's 220 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: a chance to make money here. There's a chance to 221 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 2: be profitable here. There's a chance to guarantee profit when 222 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,079 Speaker 2: the Brewers lose. Because I don't think they're going to 223 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: win the World Series. I don't think they'll win the NFCS. 224 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna get to the National League 225 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 2: Championship Series. They're probably going to lose to the Dodgers. 226 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 2: But if we have one unit committed there and then 227 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 2: two units combined, we lose one right because the Brewers 228 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 2: don't win, we lose another one cause of the Diamondbacks. 229 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 2: Now we're two units down. We bet five units on 230 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: the Dodgers. We come out up three units. We've made money. Okay, 231 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 2: Oh wait, Matt, what if the Dodgers win then what 232 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 2: or the Brewers win then what? Okay, Now we're down 233 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 2: seven units, Okay, but we still have this ticket going 234 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 2: into National League Championship Series against the Braves, where we 235 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 2: can bet I don't know, ten units. If you don't 236 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 2: have the bankroll to do this, I understand, don't do this. 237 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: Okay. 238 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 2: I told you going in. This is not for everybody. 239 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 2: What I'm doing is not for everybody. It can all 240 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 2: be a point if the d Backs win this three 241 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 2: game series, and the d Backs win and it's all dead, 242 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 2: it's all boot Okay, So sorry, So let me get 243 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 2: I wanted to get that off my chest because it 244 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 2: was really if you were in the Discord channel, it 245 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 2: got to be just ridiculous tonight last night about what 246 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 2: was going on here between people saying the math doesn't 247 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 2: work and trying to act like there's some semi sharp 248 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 2: person and blah blah blah. All right, please do me 249 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 2: a favor, just stop it. Okay, you don't know, because 250 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 2: I don't know, because the books don't know. We're gonna 251 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 2: go step by step, because remember I don't have to 252 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 2: bet the Dodgers series before it begins. 253 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: I can wait. 254 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 2: Maybe the Brewers take Game one the Brewers take Game one, 255 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 2: Guess what happens. There's money, there could be plus money 256 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 2: on the dot on the Dodgers. You can bet the 257 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 2: series price during the series. Don't forget that the market. 258 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: The prices changed during the series. So having that twenty 259 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 2: one to one ticket, we're working off of it. 260 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: But when do we work off of it? I'll tell 261 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: you what I'm doing. Fade or follow it, but. 262 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 2: I'll explain it as we go. Relax is the keyword. 263 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 2: If you bet it, you bet one unit right now. 264 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 2: If you bet last night, you bet two units, you're 265 00:13:54,960 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 2: two units committed. Breathe, Calm down, Relax will be fine. 266 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 2: Tonight we go. We'll start with Tampa Bay and the Rangers. 267 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: Rangers eighty four, sixty eight and five to the over, 268 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: one of the best teams in Major League Baseball did 269 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 2: the over, but to the under. Tampa Bay actually wasn't 270 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 2: to the over on the road. Rather, they're actually an 271 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 2: under team on the road. Texas was forty one, thirty 272 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 2: seven and three on the road. Interesting stat Tampa Bay 273 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 2: was the number one team in baseball to the over 274 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: at home this season fifty one, twenty eight and two 275 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 2: to hell them A mark overall, they were eighty nine 276 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 2: sixty eight and five to the over Why top to 277 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 2: bottom offense, they can score top to bottom, they can 278 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 2: hurt you top to bottom. Montgomery going to the hill 279 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 2: for the Rangers. Two point seven three ERA posing batting 280 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 2: average two twenty seven. It's pretty good. Two earned runs 281 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 2: in his last four starts. Comes into this series really good, 282 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 2: really really good. Three twenty two ERA in September also 283 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 2: very good. Has not faced Tampa Bay yet this season, however, 284 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 2: Tampa Bay last now home ERA of three point one 285 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 2: eight one sixty three opposing betting average at home. He's 286 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 2: a tough guy to hit four earned runs in his 287 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 2: last start at home, However, little shaky finish this year 288 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 2: against Texas one to zero with a one point five 289 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 2: to zero e RA. Here is the problem for the Rangers. 290 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 2: Their bullpen sucks, and I mean it is really bad. 291 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 2: The bullpen is really, really good. The Rays are going 292 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 2: to win this series, and they might do it in 293 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 2: two games. But I think this is a higher scoring 294 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 2: game than seven and a half. I think the Rangers 295 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 2: score four to three to four, five five runs. 296 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: I wouldn't mind a team. 297 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 2: Total over for the Rangers, but I think the Tampa 298 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 2: Bay Rays gets to the bullpen, and because of that reason, 299 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: the Rangers are going to need to score, and they 300 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 2: know they're going to need to score. I want to 301 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: watch these teams play out a little bit, but I 302 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 2: think the the Rays have a real clear advantage for 303 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 2: the first game. I'm gonna bet over Texas's bullpen's era 304 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 2: is four point two eight, one of the worst in baseball. 305 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 2: They're giving up one hundred and ninety eight home runs 306 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 2: out of that bullpen against a lineup that hits home 307 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: runs in a ballpark that gives up home runs over 308 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 2: seven and a half one point one units Rangers and 309 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 2: the Rays over seven and a half For the first 310 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 2: game of the day, second game, Twins against Toronto Blue Jays. 311 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 2: Did you know that Minnesota has lost seventeen straight playoff games. 312 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: I've read that last night. 313 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 2: I was like, what, They've lost seventeenth straight playoff games. Yeah, 314 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 2: twins have been no bueno in the postseason. Gossmin going 315 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 2: for Tampa for Toronto three point twenty seven e array 316 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 2: on the road seven and five record, two thirty nine 317 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 2: oposing batting average, zero earned runs in his last two starts. 318 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 2: They were both against the Yankee. I'll give you that, 319 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: but he goes into the playoffs pitching really well. I 320 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 2: know the Rays, sorry, I know the Blue Jays didn't 321 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: look great at the end of the year, but I 322 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: think it's go time for these guys. He won seven 323 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 2: to six against the Twins back in July, so he 324 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 2: has seen the Twins. But this is a different Twins team. 325 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 2: But it's more of a fade on Lopez. A four 326 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 2: to twenty one ERA at home five and three with 327 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 2: a two to forty one opposing batting average eleven earned 328 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 2: runs in his last three starts heading into the postseason. 329 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 2: That's not great for a Twins team that can't score 330 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 2: all that much. Six thirty five ERA against Toronto. He 331 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: did beat the Twins back in July, a nine to 332 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 2: seven win back in July. I just think the Jay's 333 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:43,360 Speaker 2: lineup is better, and I think Gosman going gives Toronto 334 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 2: a real opportunity here to win Game one, to take 335 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 2: game one. The Jays are even money in the series price, 336 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 2: and they're even money in game number one. I think 337 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 2: the only reason one of the Twins are favors because 338 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 2: they're at home. 339 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 1: I don't know. 340 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 2: I haven't liked any of the teams in the Central 341 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 2: this year. This is just a play of you know, 342 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 2: the Jays have seen better quality. The James Jays have 343 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 2: a better lineup. Gosman pitching bullpen for Toronto is good 344 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 2: enough to hold up when it's when needs be. Money 345 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 2: line even money Jays to win Jay's money line for 346 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 2: one unit down, no juice even money bet. And then 347 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 2: number three the nightcap. I don't know what to do 348 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 2: with the Diamondbacks. Okay, game one, we already have that 349 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 2: bet in place. I'm just gonna watch Game one. I 350 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 2: want to see what we can do potentially take a position. 351 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 2: If you know, if the Diamondbacks win Game one, maybe 352 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: a way of coming back and taking money on Milwaukee 353 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 2: Burns is going. 354 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 1: I don't know. 355 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 2: I mean, Dbacks could easily win game one. I don't 356 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 2: won't shock me in the least if if Arizona wins 357 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 2: the first game, just I want to watch that game 358 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 2: and watch that series. If we already have two units 359 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 2: committed there, so let's watch that. Let's leave that series 360 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 2: alone for a day and just watch what's happening for 361 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 2: game one Marlin's Phillies. Phillies had a losing record again, 362 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,400 Speaker 2: to Marlins. This year, Florida went seven and six against Philadelphia. 363 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 2: Four of those games were one run wins. Thirty plus 364 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 2: wins this year, I think it was thirty two and 365 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 2: fourteen the record. 366 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 1: For the Marlins something like that. 367 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 2: Thir maybe thirty three and fourteen for the Marlins in 368 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 2: one run games, the most wins or sorry, the second 369 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 2: most wins in Major League Baseball in one run games, 370 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 2: but the best winning percentage in run in one run 371 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 2: games in all of baseball the Marlins. It's unbelievable. Lozardo 372 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 2: goes to the hill for the Marlins. He has a 373 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 2: two to zero record against the Phillies this year in 374 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 2: a three point six five ERA. He won a game 375 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 2: at the Bank this year, already won three of his 376 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 2: last four starts heading into the postseason. Now, the Phillies 377 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 2: have a hell of a lineup and the Phillies are 378 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 2: the defending champs of the National League. 379 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: I get that. 380 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 2: But Wheelers five and two, with a four point one 381 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 2: to three ERA at home two thirty five posing batting average, 382 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 2: did not face the Marlins this season, but he had 383 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 2: a kind of an up and down September decent. The 384 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 2: three point seventy one I think these teams are pretty 385 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 2: evenly matched, and the Marlins have a winning excuse me, 386 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 2: have a winning record. 387 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: For Game one. 388 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 2: The Marlins have been playing playoff baseball for a month now, 389 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 2: I mean literally fighting clong they've had. These young Marlins 390 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 2: have had so much pressure on them. I think in 391 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 2: Game one, I think they can steal Game one. I 392 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: really do. I just think that they've been in the playoffs, 393 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 2: They've been in the crucible. The Phillies might take a 394 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,160 Speaker 2: little time to get up to speed and to match 395 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 2: the intensity. I know it's not football and basketball, so 396 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 2: it's different. Baseball is different, but I still think it 397 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 2: comes to, you know, being on, being sharp, being. 398 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: Ready to go out of the gate. 399 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 2: Marlin's money line plus one thirty nine Marlins steel Game 400 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 2: one on the road against Philadelphia. I like the Marlins 401 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,479 Speaker 2: tonight here. I understand the pop of the Phillies lineup. 402 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 2: I just think Lozardo has been really good against the Phillies. 403 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 2: I think they're really confident they've seen this team. I 404 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 2: think there's no fear for the Marlins to go into 405 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 2: Philadelphia and win this series. Not gonna shock me at all. 406 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 2: If the Marlins win this series, Game one. I'm taking 407 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 2: Florida plus one thirty nine money line for one unit. 408 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: All right, three bets three point one units in play 409 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 2: here today on baseball over seven and a half, Rangers 410 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 2: and the Rays, Blue Jays money line, even money on 411 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 2: the road, Ray Marlins, even money. Sorry, Marlin's money line 412 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 2: plus one thirty nine up against the Phillies. Baseball's here. 413 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 2: I'm psyched to watch it. It's gonna be a lot 414 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 2: of fun. Sorry to Rant and Rave go crazy. I 415 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 2: had a couple things that I had to get off 416 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 2: my chest today here, but we are here every day, 417 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 2: one or two days a week. I got to get 418 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 2: the things off my chest. Mine is Matt Paroltic, guys 419 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 2: who follow me on socials at Sports Talk Matt each 420 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 2: and every morning the Dilijuce podcast. I was being brought 421 00:21:51,960 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 2: to you by Omaha stakes dot Com.