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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Proudoro with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: They're calling this happy hour now in the newsroom, this

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Speaker 2: hour just with those of us here on Bloomberg get

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Speaker 2: to talk before we unleash this program on our global

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Speaker 2: television audience at one pm. And this is where we

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Speaker 2: think the big thoughts. How would you like to be

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson today? You thought you were stressed out this morning.

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Speaker 2: Maybe you woke up in the middle of the night.

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Speaker 2: You didn't know what was going to happen at work

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Imagine being Mike Johnson. No path forward on Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: big questions about Israel, a motion to vacate hanging over

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Speaker 2: your head and all that after you handle Faiza, the

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Speaker 2: warrantless spying program that has been controversial since the day

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Speaker 2: it appeared. So this is the day the traffic jams

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Speaker 2: are back. They're back in town and they have two

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Speaker 2: weeks to get something done. Can anything happen. I wonder

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Speaker 2: what Terry Hayes thinks about it. I'm glad to say

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Speaker 2: Terry's with us on this important day. Back Pangee, a

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Speaker 2: policy founder on Bloomberg. Terry, it's good to see you.

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Speaker 2: You'll look happy and ready as they're hope in the air.

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Speaker 2: Something gets done. And I'm asking you that with a

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Speaker 2: pretty long laundry list, we have this great story on

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Speaker 2: the terminal right now, trains, planes and TikTok. Where do

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Speaker 2: you want to begin? How about file.

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Speaker 3: Goodness for the next two weeks? Well, yeah, I'll begin

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Speaker 3: with happiness. Why not, I'll begin with happiness? Okay, you

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Speaker 3: know the answer is the answer is probably no. You know,

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Speaker 3: it's to borrow a Churchill phrase, it's not the beginning

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Speaker 3: of the end, but it's probably the end of the beginning. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: One of the things I've learned and been a part

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Speaker 3: of in many years is that when Congress comes back

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Speaker 3: on Monday, nobody ever begins to grapple with anything until Wednesday.

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Speaker 3: That's just generally what happens, right, And you've got you know,

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Speaker 3: you've got party conferences and all the rest. You know,

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Speaker 3: this is probably a good reminder that the best politics

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Speaker 3: takes place in a personal space, and you know, so

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Speaker 3: they haven't begun to solve any of this stuff. Johnson's

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Speaker 3: got a problem, and there's really two problems in Washington,

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Speaker 3: and then I'll stop. One is that Johnson's got a

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Speaker 3: very fractious Republican conference he has to deal with, and

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Speaker 3: he's trying to figure out ways to provide Ukraine aid

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Speaker 3: and you know, and trying pretty much everything he can

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Speaker 3: think of from from poop pooing straight aid but talking

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Speaker 3: about loans and loan guarantees, and the Biden administration are

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Speaker 3: talking about bonds and the like with the rest of

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Speaker 3: the G seven and NATO, you know, all the way

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Speaker 3: down to a kind of a lend lease program the

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Speaker 3: people haven't heard of since Franklin Roosevelt. But the other

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Speaker 3: problem is, and I'm not being partisan by saying so,

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Speaker 3: but the other partisan the problem here is is that

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Speaker 3: I think President Biden is not doing enough, not doing

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Speaker 3: anything really to impose a view of what is in

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Speaker 3: the United States best interest and kind of a unifying

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Speaker 3: foreign policy vision in the way that past presidents of

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Speaker 3: both parties have done. And he very much needs to

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Speaker 3: come to the table on this and really push instead

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Speaker 3: of just saying that the Congress needs to do something.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, so here's my big question on that, Terry, because

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Speaker 2: we've got a couple of competing discharge petitions as another

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Speaker 2: way maybe to get to Ukraine funding competing versions. One

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Speaker 2: is more Democratic and the other is Republican, and they

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Speaker 2: actually have folks signing on here. So I guess my

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Speaker 2: question is what's more likely now? And I don't mean

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Speaker 2: to sneak up on you, but I'm curious how you'd

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Speaker 2: answer this. What's more likely a motion to vacate is

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Speaker 2: by Marjorie Taylor Green, or a discharge petition actually sees

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Speaker 2: the light of day and saves the speaker from having

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Speaker 2: to act.

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Speaker 3: I'll go non consensus. You know, most Washington people, I think,

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Speaker 3: would say that it's going to be the Green motion

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Speaker 3: to vacate. I think the discharge petition is much more likely.

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Speaker 3: You know what you've got in Washington, you know, you

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Speaker 3: and I have talked many times on this in the past,

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Speaker 3: is you don't have two political parties. You've got four fashions.

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Speaker 3: And right now you've got the vast majority of the Congress,

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Speaker 3: which are Republican centrists and Democratic centrists. Really pushing hard

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Speaker 3: to do something on Ukraine, aid, on Israel aid on

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Speaker 3: Indo Pacific aid, and you know that I think that

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Speaker 3: kind of starts to overwhelm things pretty soon. Folks have

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Speaker 3: been pretty patient about understanding the travails of Republican leadership,

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Speaker 3: but we're getting to the point now where something has

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Speaker 3: to happen, and that pressure, I think, frankly, is more

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Speaker 3: meaningful in the in the House, uh than what what

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Speaker 3: Miss Green is doing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, a discharge petition is one of these

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Speaker 2: things that journalists love to talk about and you know,

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Speaker 2: act like this happens all the time, and for it

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Speaker 2: never had kind of like a contested convention. Yeah, good

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Speaker 2: luck with that in four years. But in this case,

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Speaker 2: what would that say about this Congress? Arry, if it

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Speaker 2: actually did happen, if it was required to get something done.

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Speaker 3: Oh well, it would it would confirm that they're really

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Speaker 3: excuse me. It would confirm that there really aren't majorities

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Speaker 3: and there's really not control. Uh. You know, one of

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Speaker 3: the things I say to you and others a lot

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Speaker 3: is that don't don't assume majorities mean control. And that's

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Speaker 3: you know, very true, and I think coming very more,

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Speaker 3: very much obvious UH in the UH, in the in

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Speaker 3: the House currently, it would be the same Frankly, if

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Speaker 3: there was a five vote Democratic majority or a one

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Speaker 3: vote Democratic majority, there wouldn't really be control. But what

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Speaker 3: you've got is you've got kind of the mass of

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Speaker 3: rank and file pushing back against leaders Franklin both parties

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Speaker 3: to say, look, you know, this is much more This

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Speaker 3: issue is much more important than party discipline, which is

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Speaker 3: already very much attenuated anyway. So you know, we need

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Speaker 3: to be doing something about this sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 3: And so the threat of a discharge position, you know,

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Speaker 3: they don't generally don't happen, but the threat of them

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Speaker 3: is a very real one that compels leaders to act

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Speaker 3: and figure out different ways to do things. That I

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Speaker 3: think that's what's happening to Johnson right now.

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Speaker 2: It's really fascinated by comments from Dusty Johnson, the South

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Speaker 2: Dakota Republican is chair of the Main Street Republican Caucus,

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Speaker 2: and he was asked about this idea of a motion

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Speaker 2: to vacate talking to Politico, says there's a one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent chance this is a direct quote that after the

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Speaker 2: motion to vacate, which by the way, he does not support,

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Speaker 2: we will be left for the speaker that is less

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Speaker 2: conservative than Mike Johnson, and for people like me who

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Speaker 2: want to secure conservative ties, that would be a tragedy.

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Speaker 2: Does Mike Johnson, with this in mind, need to spend

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Speaker 2: more time with the Freedom Caucus right now or more

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Speaker 2: time with Democrats who could potentially protect him and help

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Speaker 2: him save his job.

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Speaker 3: I think he needs this. I'm going to take neither

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Speaker 3: in that. I think he needs to spend more time

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Speaker 3: with his Republican centrists in the kind of the basket

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Speaker 3: Dusty Johnson, Well, yeah, like Dusty Johnson, because what you've

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Speaker 3: got is you've got let's call him. I think of

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Speaker 3: Johnson as kind of a centrist, but let's just call

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Speaker 3: him a pragmatic conservative, because pragmatism is where I want

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Speaker 3: to go here. Is that, you know, is that there's

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Speaker 3: a there's a there are bigger issues involved here than

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Speaker 3: just the back and forth about whether somebody's gonna you know,

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Speaker 3: land in the chair after after the game of you know,

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Speaker 3: mixing up and jumping on the jumping on the last

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Speaker 3: chair available, and you know, it's to say it's going

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Speaker 3: to be a bad look for Republicans. Should a discharge

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Speaker 3: petition succeed doesn't doesn't really describe the half of it.

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Speaker 3: These people are fighting for a majority. They're going to

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Speaker 3: prove for a continued majority in the fall elections. They're

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Speaker 3: going to prove they don't deserve one. And not only that,

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Speaker 3: they're going to squander advantages that they have somewhat incredibly

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Speaker 3: on economic issues and a bunch of other things. It's

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Speaker 3: going to occur to it'll be a spice in the

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Speaker 3: fall elections in individual member Congress and Senate races that

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Speaker 3: these folks aren't up to it and shouldn't be put

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Speaker 3: back in charge, you know. And that's the kind of

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Speaker 3: fire and miss Green is really playing with. But then again,

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Speaker 3: she'd probably prefer to be in the minority anyway where

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Speaker 3: she could raise money from purists.

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Speaker 2: Isn't that interesting, Terry. It's good to see you. Great

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Speaker 2: to catch up. Congress back in town. Had to have

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Speaker 2: Terry Haynes from Pangaea Policy a regular voice of reliability

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Speaker 2: and rational thought here on Bloomberg. I'm Joe, Matthew and

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Speaker 2: Washington with this in mind, the idea of Ukraine funding specifically,

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Speaker 2: but also to an extent, Israel funding, and they will

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Speaker 2: get a vote at some point, likely combined on the

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Speaker 2: House floor. Or we hear so much about the DIB

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Speaker 2: the defense industrial base, that this bill would help to

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Speaker 2: fund the majority of the money staying here in the US.

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Speaker 2: The vast majority of the sixty billion for Ukraine would

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Speaker 2: go to defense contractors here in the States, American jobs.

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Speaker 2: That's the idea Terry's talking about. Why haven't we heard

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Speaker 2: from the President on this at least to the extent

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Speaker 2: that we thought we would when it comes to the

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Speaker 2: domestic investment, and we're not alone here in the US.

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Speaker 2: I will point you to a fascinating story today on

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Speaker 2: the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. Our colleague Enda Current,

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Speaker 2: who we talked to a lot here, and a great

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Speaker 2: group of reporters at Bloomberg put this together about the

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Speaker 2: global need. In fact, the Western world has a need

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Speaker 2: to invest in its domestic defense industrial base. US and

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Speaker 2: allies face a ten trillion dollar reckoning in the race

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Speaker 2: to rearm is the headline, and I'm happy to say

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Speaker 2: that Enda is with us right now, Bloomberg Global Economy reporter.

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Speaker 2: Nice to see you, sir. Great work here. It really

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Speaker 2: gives you a sense where the money is going to

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Speaker 2: be going in the next couple of years, to the

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Speaker 2: extent that it might put some Western nations into some

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Speaker 2: very difficult positions when they have to decide on how

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Speaker 2: to allocate funding. You're talking about a new era of

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Speaker 2: global rearmament. This is the Western world as I put

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Speaker 2: it right, this is NATO and beyond.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the old guns and butter argument has come

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Speaker 4: back to life. So to be clear, the national security

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Speaker 4: people will tell you have to spend on defense, but

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Speaker 4: that means you're going to spend a lot of money.

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Speaker 4: You're gonna have to find that money from somewhere. And

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Speaker 4: our economists, to Bloomberg economics, how to look at let's

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Speaker 4: just say the G seven, including the US, if they

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Speaker 4: were to include or increase their spending up to four

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Speaker 4: percent of GDP, which is where Poland is at the

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Speaker 4: moment on defense spending, you're then that's where you get

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Speaker 4: into this tentrallion dollar figure. It's a lot of money.

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Speaker 4: And remember hitting that two percent figure is very pertinent

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Speaker 4: in Western Europe. Now those NATO allies that are racing

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Speaker 4: to hit that, and of course the US presidency changed

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Speaker 4: later this year, it would be even sharper focused. So

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Speaker 4: defense costs money.

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Speaker 2: It's really interesting that that's become like a household thing.

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Speaker 2: People know about two percent now in many ways because

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Speaker 2: of Donald Trump having beat the drum on this for

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Speaker 2: so long now it's become part of the sort of

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Speaker 2: daily conversation in Washington. Let's keep it to the G

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Speaker 2: seven for a minute. To your point, which nations will

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Speaker 2: suffer the most in terms of domestic obligations that they're

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Speaker 2: already making.

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Speaker 4: So it depends ultimately how to do do they fund

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Speaker 4: this defense procurement through increasing taxes, do they fund it

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Speaker 4: through faster economic growth, growing their revenue pole or of

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Speaker 4: course you have to go and borrow on the markets. Right,

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Speaker 4: So it does depend how to do it. But you'd

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Speaker 4: have to say a lot of analysts point towards the

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Speaker 4: old reliables of Italy and Spain, for example, among the

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Speaker 4: sovereigns in Western Europe, who already have some challenges there

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Speaker 4: that they would come under further pressure under a kind

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Speaker 4: of debt profile if they were to go down the

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Speaker 4: road of funding this through borrowing. So delects of Germany

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Speaker 4: and UK could maybe absorb it a bit better. But

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Speaker 4: let's not forget even the US. Some analysts here make

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Speaker 4: the point that the US spending is nowhere near where

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Speaker 4: it needs to be for the challenges that the world is,

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Speaker 4: both in Europe and Asia. So it's going to cost

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Speaker 4: a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: It's going to cost a lot of money. Great line

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Speaker 2: from Jenny Welch, or colleague at Bloomberg Economics geoeconomics analysts,

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Speaker 2: the post Cold War peace dividend is coming to an end?

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Speaker 2: Is this a new arms race?

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Speaker 4: It is because it's not just Western Europe, by the way,

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Speaker 4: or even the US. Yeah, China increasing spending this year

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Speaker 4: by seven percent, most in five years. Others an Asian

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Speaker 4: like the Philippines and Malaysia racing head Australia investing in

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Speaker 4: this navy, likewise Japan. So a lot of countries around

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Speaker 4: the world are turning their focus to where to put

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Speaker 4: their money into defense. The question this is where the hull,

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Speaker 4: guns and butter question comes into it. Will they be

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Speaker 4: making painful decisions elsewhere? You know there are those who

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Speaker 4: say you can't balance the budget on defence, So will

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Speaker 4: they find cuts elsewhere or will they have both guns

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Speaker 4: and the butter and that make the hard choices. That's

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Speaker 4: where the economic angle comes into all of this.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned China.

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Speaker 2: This is because of China, right and Russia a to

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Speaker 2: mention the chaos in the Middle East quite.

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Speaker 4: Right, the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's aggression in the

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Speaker 4: South China Sea, and of course in the Middle East.

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Speaker 4: All of this is stoking as you know, well, this

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Speaker 4: kind of renewed focus, this new renewed thinking and protecting borders.

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Speaker 4: What do we need to do? How much kit do

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Speaker 4: we need to buy? And how do we buy it?

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Speaker 2: I mentioned in the US here we have our own reckoning.

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Speaker 2: At some point we can't even seem to get Ukraine

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Speaker 2: funding through the door, and a lot of that would

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Speaker 2: help us domestically. Is it time to take a new

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Speaker 2: look at defense spending levels here or is it about

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world's catching up to us.

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Speaker 4: There's certainly an element of catchup, and that's very true

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Speaker 4: Western Europe in terms of NATO obligations. That's something that

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Speaker 4: came through in these reporting reporting lines. So there is that.

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Speaker 4: For sure. The US has been carrying its load. But

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Speaker 4: when it comes to US budget writ large, there are

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Speaker 4: plenty of warnings that it's on an unsustainable trajectory. That's

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Speaker 4: your starting point. Now, where you want to start making

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Speaker 4: your cutback to finding savings is a whole other story.

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Speaker 4: The people who say you shouldn't be finding those savings

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Speaker 4: in defense, he shouldn't be finding an education whatever. But yes,

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Speaker 4: there are plenty of people saying the US needs to

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Speaker 4: keep an eye on the public person at the moment.

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Speaker 4: You know your Larry Swimmers, is your CBOs whatever. So

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Speaker 4: it comes down to the debate of where you want

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Speaker 4: to make those probly.

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Speaker 2: Something because I keep waking up the stories every day

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Speaker 2: telling me about cheap drones, that this is less expensive

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Speaker 2: than ever, that they're telling us that we don't need

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Speaker 2: all this expensive stuff.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well so have to. I can't claim to be

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Speaker 4: in military hardware. I came just for the public, the

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Speaker 4: public spending view. But again it's a come up in conversations.

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Speaker 4: You can spend a ton of money on heavy equipment

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Speaker 4: these days, and I want to take some cheap drones

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Speaker 4: to cause havoc and mayhem as we see in the

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Speaker 4: red seat.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes you wonder if we're going back to the nineteen

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Speaker 2: eighties here a little bit. You're not old enough to

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Speaker 2: remember that. I know, I know you are. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see you back. I have to try to make

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Speaker 2: him feel better and occurrent it's old like I am,

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Speaker 2: and great to have him with us as always on

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Speaker 2: the set here in Washington, Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter. Find

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Speaker 2: that story. It's a fascinating read and a lot more

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Speaker 2: than we even had a chance to scratch here on

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Speaker 2: our conversation.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Bella Some Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 2: Thirty, Kaylee, Drama, I guess is what we.

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Speaker 5: Haven't come Yes, there's always drama here in Washington. You

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Speaker 5: know what reminds me of more drama that we haven't

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Speaker 5: even mentioned yet. Tomorrow is when the House is going

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Speaker 5: to send the articles of impeachment against the Department of

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Speaker 5: Homeland Security Secretary Alan Hondra Maiorkis to the Senate, where

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Speaker 5: it likely will go nowhere, it might quickly die. And

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Speaker 5: yet that just speaks to the powers that be in

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Speaker 5: Washington and how much they disagree with each other.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, most things, he's going to be up there to

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Speaker 2: borrow testifying right while the art but that is you're right,

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Speaker 2: the stagecraft as they walk the mahogany box with the

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Speaker 2: articles across the rotunda. We'll actually see that tomorrow and

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Speaker 2: then they will, I guess fall into a hole somewhere

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Speaker 2: because we're not expecting a trial in the Senate.

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Speaker 5: No, it seems like Schumer is going to try to

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Speaker 5: put this thing to bed very quickly. We'll see whether

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Speaker 5: or not he ultimately has success in doing so. But

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Speaker 5: that's what we'll learn more immediately this week and maybe

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Speaker 5: sometime weeks even before we understand what exactly Ukraine Aid

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Speaker 5: might be in the House, what form it will take,

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Speaker 5: when it could be put to the floor, and of

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Speaker 5: course what could happen as a consequence. And here to

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Speaker 5: keep track of all of that is Eric Wasson. He

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Speaker 5: is a congressional reporter for US here at Bloomberg, joining

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Speaker 5: us live from Capitol Hill today. So, Eric, the lawmakers

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Speaker 5: are back where you are at least starting to trickle

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Speaker 5: into town. What's going to be the first order of business.

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Speaker 6: Well in the House that really focus on this Faiza

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Speaker 6: warrantless surveillance bill. This is very divisive bill both among

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Speaker 6: Republicans and Democrats, this balance of privacy and security, and

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Speaker 6: the Speaker has decided to focus on this and put

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Speaker 6: off Ukraine at least for another week. We're told that

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Speaker 6: there won't be a Ukraine proposal put forward this week

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Speaker 6: as he works to generate at least to more than

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Speaker 6: half of his conference behind a Ukraine proposal, and we

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Speaker 6: may say it next week, but then the House goes

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Speaker 6: on recess again, continuing.

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Speaker 2: To push this off.

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Speaker 6: But it is the issue that could trigger his ouster.

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Speaker 6: We're on full alert for Marjorie Taylor Green to introduce

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Speaker 6: the resolution, and that's the main drama in the House

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Speaker 6: right now. And as you mentioned, in the Senate, it

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Speaker 6: will be Alejandro Majorcis, you know, being triggered as far

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Speaker 6: as an impeachment trial tomorrow late in the day, and

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Speaker 6: we're expecting the Democrats to bring a motion to dismiss

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Speaker 6: that as soon as Thursday. So that's really the focus

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Speaker 6: in the Senate. There had been some thought before Tax

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Speaker 6: Day of bringing this big seventy eight billion dollar business

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Speaker 6: tax and trial tax break bill, but all my sources

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Speaker 6: are saying that is on hold, it's on ice until

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Speaker 6: they can find some way to overcome a Senate Republican

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Speaker 6: blockade of that.

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Speaker 2: Boy, is anyone eric questioning the calendar here? The extent

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Speaker 2: to which this looks ridiculous that after just coming back

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Speaker 2: from it a two week easter recess, this massive to

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Speaker 2: do list, that lawmakers could potentially go back on recess

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Speaker 2: before anything is done.

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Speaker 6: I mean, certainly, but this is an election year, so

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Speaker 6: that we've come to expect that to a certain degree

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Speaker 6: in Congress, as members want to be back campaigning. But

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Speaker 6: I think also, you know, the Speaker is treading on

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Speaker 6: a landmine, you know, minefield of problems here, so perhaps

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Speaker 6: these breaks just gather him, give him a little bit

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Speaker 6: more time in there to adjust this learning curve which

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Speaker 6: has been very steep for Speaker Johnson.

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Speaker 5: Well, and speaking of Speaker Johnson, as you mentioned, Derek,

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Speaker 5: and we have talked about, Marjorie Taylor Green clearly unhappy

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Speaker 5: with the Speaker in some of the choices that he

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Speaker 5: has made. She outlined everything she feels Johnson has done

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Speaker 5: wrong in a letter to her colleagues yesterday, and in

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Speaker 5: part she said in the letter that Johnson has presided

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Speaker 5: over what she calls a complete and total surrender to

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Speaker 5: Democrats and President Biden and needs to change course or

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Speaker 5: be unseeded. But isn't the fact of the matter, Eric

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Speaker 5: that the Democrats will still hold the Senate, Democrats will

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Speaker 5: still hold the White House. So any future Republican Speaker,

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Speaker 5: whether or not it's Mike Johnson or someone else, is

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Speaker 5: going to have the exact same problem.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that's right. I think Margor Taller Green

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Speaker 6: and others are very unhappy with the outcome of these

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Speaker 6: two mini buses. This was to fund the federal government

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Speaker 6: a void to shut down. You know, Speaker touted some

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Speaker 6: conservative wins, but they clearly wanted much more. Margine Taylor

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Speaker 6: Green in particularly wanted all the Trump investigations by Jacksonmith's

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Speaker 6: to be defunded. That's something that would never pass the Senate,

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Speaker 6: would possibly cause even cause a shutdown, and the Speaker

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Speaker 6: and other Republican leaders made the calculation of a shutdown

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Speaker 6: election year by Republicans is not good politics, would not

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Speaker 6: help them keep the House. So that those requests fell

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Speaker 6: on deaf ears that prompted her to bring this attempt

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Speaker 6: to oust him. So, I mean, she's unhappy but you

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Speaker 6: know we have Democrats, you know Tom Swazi, the newly

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Speaker 6: returned to New York Representative Jared Moskowitz of Florida, saying

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Speaker 6: that they would vote to stop her from ousting to

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Speaker 6: the Speaker, there are probably others in there, especially if

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Speaker 6: a Ukraine bill comes forward that something Democrats can support.

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Speaker 6: So it's not really clear she'll have the ability to

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Speaker 6: even carry out this threat.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating. We don't have any idea when a Ukraine bill

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Speaker 2: might emerge, do we, eric never mind, actually get a

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Speaker 2: vote on the floor.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, not that I'm told, not this week, So don't

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Speaker 6: don't be, you know, on full alert for it this week.

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Speaker 6: We know that the contents the repel Wagers's idea of

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Speaker 6: seizing Russian assets, Democrats and Republicans like that that could

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Speaker 6: be added in. So I have an idea of loans

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Speaker 6: that President former Resident Trump is talking about, loans that

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Speaker 6: may never be repaid. Incidentally from Ukraine is something that's

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Speaker 6: going to be part of it. And this is pushed

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Speaker 6: for LNG exports. And my Callie Alredy Natter had a

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Speaker 6: nice piece. It's not just lifting a pause on current

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Speaker 6: energy export projects, but specifically approving certain projects, including by

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Speaker 6: certain companies in Louisiana. So you know that's that's in

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Speaker 6: the mix as well.

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Speaker 2: He's back on the hill. Eric Watson Bloomberg Congressional Reporter.

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Speaker 2: It's like the first day of school up there, Kailey,

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Speaker 2: do I keep going out of order for you? You were

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Speaker 2: about to speak? Forgive me if I am.

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Speaker 5: It's okay, you know, we finish each other's sentences. It's

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Speaker 5: kind of it is a jazz band. We're all just riffing.

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Speaker 5: But it's an excellent point, as we discussed with Eric,

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Speaker 5: the idea that there is going to be a lot

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Speaker 5: of question around four and AID. It's not just the

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Speaker 5: questions around AID for Ukraine, but Israel as well, especially

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Speaker 5: in light of growing criticism of the Israeli governments here

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Speaker 5: at home domestically. President Biden certainly is included in the

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Speaker 5: group that is growing more critical. But other international pressures

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Speaker 5: are abounding for Israel, including the latest today Turkey, after

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Speaker 5: Israel opposed its proposal to drop aid over the Gaza Strip,

436
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 5: decided to restrict exports to Israel of fifty four different

437
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 5: items until there is a ceasefire.

438
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 2: Well, you know it's something as well to consider this

439
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 2: idea of a date on a RAFA invasion, which we

440
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: don't have Benjamin Etniel, who says one exists, while we

441
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: also talk about a potential ceasefire. Is this all the

442
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 2: same conversation? Is this all public negotiating for a lack

443
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: of negotiating at the table. You kind of wonder what

444
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: to believe at this point.

445
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 5: Well, especially when we're hearing different levels of optimism from

446
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 5: the Israelis over the prospect of a ceasefire deal being

447
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 5: reached versus Hamas, which suggested yesterday that we're not getting

448
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 5: as close as the Israelis might suggest. So this is

449
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 5: where we want to begin with Mark Ginsberg. He is

450
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 5: the former US Ambassador to Morocco and the founder and

451
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 5: president of Coalition for a Safer Web. Ambassador Ginsburg, it's

452
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 5: always great to have you here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

453
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 5: Let's focus on this idea of a ceasefire deal. Clearly

454
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 5: there is growing international pressure for this to happen. It

455
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 5: seems the Israelis are becoming more optimistic. But how optimistic

456
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 5: would you be that this can happen soon?

457
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 7: Well, I'm not optimistic. I'm not optimistic because it's not done.

458
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 7: Until it's done. And Hamas leadership thinks that they have

459
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 7: more balls in their court than the Israelis do because

460
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 7: they see the pressure growing by the Biden administration and

461
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 7: Democratic progress is to restrictate to military assistance to Israel,

462
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 7: and Hamas is saying, hey, this is terrific. We can

463
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 7: get the Biden administration completely tied up against Israel and

464
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 7: that means that we'll be able to lift the fight

465
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 7: another day. Because of the israelities, we'll have a harder

466
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 7: time to fighting Gaza.

467
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: So is that who Benjamin Ettie, who was talking to yesterday,

468
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 2: was Hamas the audience to say publicly that there was

469
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 2: a date established for the invasion of Rafa without actually

470
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 2: saying what it was, knowing how much pressure the US

471
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 2: is putting on him right now to keep that from happening.

472
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 7: Well, it's not only pressure from Netaniell on Hamas. It's

473
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 7: also pressure by the Netaell far right extremist government on

474
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 7: the Biden administration to say, look, we haven't completed the

475
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 7: task of what Netael defines euphemistically as complete victory, even

476
00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 7: though I don't believe there's such a thing as complete victory.

477
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 7: And so you've got a lot of chess plays that

478
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 7: are going on here between the administration, the talks in Cairo,

479
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 7: Hamas and Iran and the Israelis, and each one at

480
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 7: this point in time is pointing fingers at the other

481
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 7: over why there's no agreement on a ceasefire.

482
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 5: Well, and there's other mediators involved in these negotiations as well,

483
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 5: Ambassador Egypt and cutter How should we be thinking about

484
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 5: them as factors here when officials from the Israeli government

485
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 5: have suggested to Bloomberg within the last week that they

486
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 5: don't view the Cutteries as reliable or trustworthy.

487
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 7: The Cutteries are not reliable. The Cutteries are doing what's

488
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 7: best for the Cutteries. The Egyptians have another have one

489
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 7: major dog in this fight. If the Israelis invade Rafa

490
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 7: and they're almost what close to a million refuge Palestine

491
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 7: refugees in a sub section part of that area, and

492
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 7: if the Israeli attack, what are the Israelis going to do?

493
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 7: They claim they're going to set up a ten camp

494
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 7: for those refugees in northern Gaza, So that means that

495
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 7: they're going to have to move them, and that means

496
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 7: in the end also that the Rafa crossing for humanitarian

497
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 7: aid is going to be subjected to all sorts of

498
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 7: military restrictions that we've seen have hampered AID already. So

499
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 7: the Egyptians at this point in time don't want to

500
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 7: see a refugee flow into the Sinai and so they

501
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 7: want to see a ceasfire. So they have a much

502
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 7: bigger dog in this fight than cut our hats M.

503
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 2: What's the next visit ambassador to Tel Aviv? We've seen

504
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 2: this continued shuttle diplomacy from Anthony Blincoln. We saw Joe

505
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: Biden make a visit as well. If the administration starts

506
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: to see what it's asking for from Benjamin NETANYAHUO could

507
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: we see another.

508
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 7: Well, I'm not very convinced that the Biden administration is

509
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 7: going to be satisfied by the Netta administration. The fact

510
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 7: is is it took the President reading a riot Act

511
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 7: and I'm exaggerating the word riot Act in Netanyal to

512
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 7: get him to agree, after the merciless killing of the

513
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 7: World Food Kitchen aid workers to open up eight And

514
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 7: you know, I asked the same question I've asked for months.

515
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 7: There's a major port less than twenty five miles from

516
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 7: Gaza known as Ashdot. It is Israel's major port. Why

517
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 7: are the Israelis refusing to permit humanitarian aid to be

518
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 7: offloaded in Ashdot? Instead of the administration happened to build

519
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 7: a port. The Biden administration happened to build a port

520
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 7: in Gaza. I think that, and I'm singling now the

521
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 7: Netanyell government and not the Israelis or the Israeli defense forces.

522
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 7: The Netaal government cannot be trusted, cannot be trusted to

523
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 7: play essentially with what is necessary for Israel to accomplish

524
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 7: in order to gain a sees fire and order to

525
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 7: get international support in order to avoid restrictions on military aid.

526
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 7: Netanial would love to go to war against the best

527
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 7: friend that Israel has right now in order to supplement

528
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 7: his political campaign to stay in power.

529
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 5: Well, as you speak about the Netanyahu government, obviously, Ambassador,

530
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 5: you know, well this is the farthest right government we

531
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 5: have seen farthest right coalition in Israel. And on that pressure,

532
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 5: the National Security Minister, who's a member of a far

533
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 5: right party, said that the Prime minister decides to end

534
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 5: the war without an extensive attack on Rafa in order

535
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 5: to defeat Hamas he will not have a mandate to

536
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 5: continue serving as Prime Minister. Is this really all it's

537
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 5: about for Natanya Hum?

538
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 7: Yeah, that he is the Marjorie Taylor Green of the

539
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 7: Israeli government. If you understand what I'm saying. He wants

540
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 7: to play the game of pulling the plug on Netaniell's

541
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 7: coalition went in the end, He's off to Siberia if

542
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 7: there's an end to this coalition. So this is all

543
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 7: pressure on Antoniell, who has every incentive to keep his

544
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 7: far right coalition intact. Look, in so far as military

545
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 7: the military situation in Rafa, there's no doubt that the

546
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 7: vestiges of the of the Hamas leadership are buried underneath

547
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 7: tunnels below Rafa. The Israelis want to go in, they

548
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 7: can't really do it without jeopardizing the lives of more Palestinians.

549
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 7: There's the there's a questionable whether or not an alternative

550
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 7: strategy is necessary, because look, the problem is Netall is

551
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 7: prolonging this war, in my judgment, by demanding what he

552
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 7: calls complete victory, which is the utter defeat of Hamas

553
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 7: militarily and politically. I do not consider that attainable. Despite

554
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 7: my fact that I'm the first one who would want

555
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 7: to see that the Israeli military cannot achieve that objective

556
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 7: without first and foremost in Hamas never politically is able

557
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 7: to restore itself to power in the rest of Gaza,

558
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 7: and that requires a peacekeeping force and support of the

559
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 7: Arab States.

560
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: Mark Ginsberg. He's the founder and president of the Coalition

561
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: for a Safer Web. He's also the former US Ambassador

562
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 2: to Morocco. Mister ambassador, thank you for being with us.

563
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: It certainly is a conversation worth remembering when we have

564
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 2: the debate in Washington about Israeli funding, once seen as

565
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 2: a layup and now potentially a vote that could prohibit

566
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 2: Ukraine funding from moving forward as progressives throw red flags

567
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 2: on what they're seeing in Gaza.

568
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

569
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: Just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then

570
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

571
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

572
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 5: Lawmakers are back on Capitol Hill after a two week

573
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 5: recess district work period, and now they are walking the

574
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 5: halls once again with a long to do list in

575
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 5: front of them. So joining us now is one of

576
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 5: those members of Congress. The Republican from Oklahoma, Congressman Frank

577
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 5: Lucas is with us now live from the Hill. Congressman,

578
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 5: thank you so much for joining us, and welcome back

579
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 5: to Washington. There is a lot that could be done.

580
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 5: The question is will a lot actually be done? What

581
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 5: is your understanding of the first order of business? What

582
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 5: do you think you'll be voting on first?

583
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 8: I think the Faisei issue has to be addressed. I

584
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 8: think we have to have a supplemental appropriation to address

585
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 8: our allies around the world. That's going to include issues

586
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 8: like the bridge collapse in Baltimore. One of my colleagues

587
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 8: implies that she might want to give the leadership in

588
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 8: the House Republican side to stir. So there's all manner

589
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 8: of things going on, and that doesn't even include committee

590
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 8: work like financial services efforts, dealing with the Security Exchange

591
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 8: Commission's climate rules, lots of stuff.

592
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: Guys, Lea, you must be so excited to be back. Congressman.

593
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: We're excited to have you with us here in a

594
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: little honest talk about what might or might not happen.

595
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: That's an interesting thing. You just said, if in fact,

596
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 2: we do see action on funding for our allies in

597
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 2: hot wars Ukraine, Israel, and then you've also got Taiwan,

598
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 2: there will that also be the vehicle for emergency funding

599
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: to replace that bridge in Baltimore.

600
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 8: I have to believe that we'll pass one big package.

601
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 8: Now I'm not an appropriator, I'm not in leadership, but

602
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 8: I have to believe, based on my experience, we'll have

603
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 8: one big package. But who would have ever guessed that

604
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 8: the Israeli component of it would cause such ranker amongst

605
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 8: the Democrat members.

606
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: Of the House.

607
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 8: Who would have guessed we would have such a discussion

608
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 8: on the Republican side about trying to still slow down

609
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 8: putin the dictator in Russia from taking over his neighbors

610
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 8: when we'd have a debate about a major infrastructure piece

611
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 8: like the bridge in Baltimore going down. This is just

612
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 8: a complicated set of times. We're in, guys, but we

613
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 8: have to get our work done. And I'm an eternal optimist.

614
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 8: I wouldn't be here.

615
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 5: Right. And you do have a vote even if you

616
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 5: aren't an appropriator or in leadership Congressman. So it raises

617
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 5: the question of what it is exactly you would be

618
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 5: willing to use that vote for. Mike Johnson has suggested

619
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 5: Ukraine Aid could come to the floor in potentially a

620
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 5: different form than what we saw in the Senate, for

621
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 5: perhaps alone instead of just outright aid, or perhaps using

622
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 5: frozen Russian assets. What is it that you would support?

623
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 5: What would Ukraine aid need to look like for you

624
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 5: for it to get your vote?

625
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 8: Well, I won't make the final decision, but whether it's

626
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 8: a loan or outright money, as long as it addresses

627
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 8: all our allies around the world, as long as we

628
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 8: make sure our friends in Taiwan can purchase purchase the

629
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 8: resources they need, as long as we make sure the

630
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 8: infrastructure in this country's function. You can't have a port

631
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 8: of the magnitude of importance as Baltimore stay down for

632
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 8: an extended period. That just creates chaos throughout the system.

633
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 8: Whatever we come up with, but it has to factor

634
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 8: all those pieces in much legislative session left in the

635
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 8: twenty twenty four legislative calendar. This is reelection season, this

636
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 8: is presidential campaign here. So I would think that management

637
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 8: on both sides of the building and both sides of

638
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 8: the room will put all this together in whatever the

639
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 8: ultimate form is, and you'll come to the floor. And

640
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 8: remember we may organize by Republican caucus and Democrat caucus.

641
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 8: But as you noted a moment ago, every member has

642
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 8: her own vote to cast on behalf of their constituents.

643
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and you referred to one of your colleagues.

644
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 2: I think you might have been referring to the gentlewoman

645
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: from Georgia earlier. If the Speaker of the House pursues

646
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: the path that you just outlined, including funding for Ukraine,

647
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: will it get him fired?

648
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 8: I think that's an issue that we'll have to decide

649
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 8: when we get there. Will the trigger be pulled? Will

650
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 8: the trigger be pulled? And assuming we can pass the bill,

651
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 8: what will the Democrats on the other side do. They

652
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,719
Speaker 8: had a lot of fun by supporting a handful of

653
00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 8: my colleagues in pitching out a speaker McCarthy, but we're

654
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 8: now at a point in time where having fun political

655
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 8: gain is not in the best interest of our sales

656
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 8: or allies. They're going to have to be responsible too.

657
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 8: The whole body elects the speaker, the whole body has

658
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 8: to make a decision about removing a speaker.

659
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 5: But as you point out Congressman. Eight of your Republican

660
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 5: Conference colleagues did vote to aust McCarthy back in the fall.

661
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 5: Do you think there would be eight or even any

662
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 5: more than just one single vote? Marjorie Taylor Green? Who

663
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 5: would be willing to cast a vote like that? Again,

664
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 5: have you heard of anyone who is on her side

665
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 5: when it comes to this question around emotion to vacate?

666
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 8: I have not heard of anyone out there rattling the

667
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 8: saber to bring his speakership to an end besides one member.

668
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 2: Okay, that's interesting because we're hearing from a few Democratic

669
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: members who have said that they might move to help

670
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,399
Speaker 2: protect the Speaker and not have to go through this

671
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 2: whole ordeal Again, is that the way this ends, he

672
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: brings Ukraine funding to the floor, supported by Republicans like

673
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 2: yourself and Democrats in an effort to keep his job.

674
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 2: If Democrats are standing.

675
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 8: By, speaker has a responsibility to bring the best possible

676
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 8: packages to the floor in the interest of the country,

677
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 8: in the interest of our allies, we have a responsibility

678
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 8: to step up and vote on that. Farm bills always

679
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 8: are bipartisan. Indaa's are always bipartisan. The appropriation bills in

680
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 8: normal times are always bipartisan. We just have to let

681
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 8: the body work its will. I have faith in the body.

682
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 5: Well, and of course, Congressmen, the body doesn't always necessarily

683
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 5: agree with itself, or at least the different parties within

684
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 5: the body on certain issues. In FISA is an example.

685
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 5: You mentioned at the top that that is on your

686
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 5: to do list. There are really bipartisan members who have

687
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 5: concerns on either end, one being the more intelligence oriented

688
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,720
Speaker 5: you want to make sure that warrant less surveilists can continue.

689
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 5: On the other side, you have those looking for more

690
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 5: privacy protections for Americans. You may be caught up in

691
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 5: this kind of surveillance. Where do you fall on this issue, sir?

692
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 5: Will you vote either way or is there one that

693
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 5: you would prefer to see the speaker put forward.

694
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 8: The first key element in PHISIA is it is a

695
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 8: temporary authorization. It's not permanent law. So it reflects the

696
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 8: times we live in. Maybe we're not being attacked every

697
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 8: day on the shores of the United States, but our allies,

698
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 8: our friends around the world are under assault, both economically

699
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 8: and militarily. We have an obligation to use the resources

700
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 8: that are necessary to protect ourselves and to protect our

701
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 8: allies when we have a common mutual interest voting for

702
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 8: language that continues that security. Because if anyone thinks that

703
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 8: the Chinese Communist Party, if anyone thinks that mister Putin's

704
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 8: dictatorship is trying is not trying to use every available

705
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 8: resource to disrupt democracies in the West, you're pretty damn naive.

706
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 2: Interesting scenario to see a bill that, of course Joe

707
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 2: Biden is pushing, and I know Republicans like yourself are

708
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 2: pushing as well. Mike Pompeo has been briefing members in

709
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: the House to underscore the urgency and the need for

710
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 2: funding in Ukraine. Whose argument is resonating with your caucus?

711
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 8: I don't know that I can answer that question at

712
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 8: this moment. I believe that when my colleagues sit down

713
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 8: and look at the intelligence, when they look at the

714
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 8: information coming from the appropriate committees, when they look at

715
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 8: the world situation, they realize you cannot let mister Putin

716
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 8: prevail in the Ukraine. Why else would his neighbors in

717
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 8: Finland and Sweden, after being neutral for decades or centuries,

718
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 8: so frantically joined a NATO. They fear that this is

719
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 8: the beginning of another nineteen thirties, and they don't want

720
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 8: to be occupied as their grandparents' generation was in the

721
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 8: nineteen thirties and forties.

722
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 5: It's a very fair point, Congressman, and that is one

723
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 5: that we've heard a lot of national security minded folks make,

724
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 5: but of course to Joe's point that it's not everyone

725
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 5: singing the same tune. Obviously, in maybe weeks before you

726
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 5: actually have a chance to vote on this issue, but

727
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 5: more immediately tomorrow, as you alluded to at the beginning

728
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 5: of this interview, you will be sitting in a Financial

729
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 5: Services Committee hearing looking specifically at the SEC's new climate

730
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 5: disclosure rules. And it's worth noting, Congressmen that just last

731
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 5: week the SEC announced that it was pausing implementation to

732
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 5: allow the legal fights surrounding these disclosures play out. What

733
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 5: role do you see Congress playing that the courts wouldn't

734
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 5: be playing here? Should you not just be waiting for

735
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 5: the courts to decide either way?

736
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 8: We provide oversight, we provide focus, We make sure people

737
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 8: understand what Chairman gensl Are and the SEC's up to.

738
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 8: They started this rulemaking process two years ago. This was

739
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 8: all about putting the federal government in a control position

740
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 8: over environmental issues that they could not get Congress when

741
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 8: they controlled the House. In the Senate Joe Biden was

742
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 8: the president, couldn't get it passed into laws. So they

743
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 8: won't intend to use the rule making process. Now we

744
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 8: put enough spotlight over the course of the last two

745
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 8: years on what the sec was up to that they

746
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 8: had to back off. Supposed that they stepped away from

747
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 8: some scope. Three, they've delayed implementation of this and that

748
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 8: and the other. I would suggest to you, if they're

749
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 8: rule in its present form, even with the delays that

750
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 8: they've implied they'll make or is in place, it'll still

751
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 8: cause corporate boards, corporations and entities who do business with

752
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 8: them to have to report all this stuff. Anyway, that's

753
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 8: not something that should be done by FIAT from a

754
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 8: rule making bureaucracy in the federal government. If we're going

755
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 8: to do this, it needs to be a peace of legislation.

756
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 8: But clearly Congress, Republican or Democrat, doesn't want to go

757
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:50,240
Speaker 8: the way that Chairman Gisler wants to go. Thank goodness,

758
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 8: we're here standing in front of.

759
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 2: Him, so there will be a legislative answer.

760
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 8: I would say there will be the necessary oversight and

761
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 8: focus so that everyone understands what's going on. I don't

762
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 8: know that you'll have a quote legislative fix. But if

763
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 8: we hadn't raised the attention, if we had not made

764
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 8: clear to people what the chairman was up to at

765
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 8: the Security Exchange Commission, we would have not had the

766
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:17,959
Speaker 8: dropping a part of his scope free rule. We would

767
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 8: have not had the delays and implementation of other things.

768
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 8: If we had been quiet, they would have done it

769
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 8: to us by rule making FIAT, and it would not

770
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 8: have been good for the American economy or of the

771
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 8: American business.

772
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 5: Well, of course, it's not just the Financial Services Committee

773
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 5: you sit on. You sit on the Agriculture Committee as well.

774
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 5: And another issue that the SEC is heavily involved in

775
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 5: that really straddles both of those committees on which you

776
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 5: sit is crypto. Given that it's very unclear what is

777
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 5: the security and what is a commodity, perhaps like in

778
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,839
Speaker 5: the case of bitcoin, or at least bitcoin not being

779
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 5: a security, it does get a bit complicated, Congressman, and

780
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 5: it does so because there has been no clear delineation

781
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 5: at this point between what the SEC should have control

782
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 5: over in what the CFTC should have control over and

783
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 5: your two committees did attempt to address that in a

784
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 5: market structure bill that passed last year in the summer.

785
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 5: Do you have an understanding of whether or not that's

786
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 5: going to be able to move forward in this Congress?

787
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 5: What are each of your committees up to on that.

788
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 8: We're not seeing a lot of action now at this stage.

789
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,280
Speaker 8: And remember, in financial Services, we've had an incredible number

790
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 8: of crypto related hearings at full Committee, at subcommittee down

791
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 8: through the years, and crypto matters because there's already something

792
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 8: like eighty billion dollars in securities being pledged as the

793
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:36,760
Speaker 8: backup for various crypto coins out there in the market.

794
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,719
Speaker 8: The Chairman has been very focused of Patrick McHenry on

795
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:44,479
Speaker 8: this subject matter, but creating the necessary consensus to move

796
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 8: forward hasn't hasn't happened yet, And you've got a wide

797
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 8: variation of opinion between Republicans and Democrats and within our

798
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 8: caucuses over whether this is the future of transactions where

799
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 8: it's a con game, and people like Sam Bankman Freed

800
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 8: don't reassure sure by their actions members of Congress.

801
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 2: Jane Harmon, a former congresswoman, was on with US yesterday.

802
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 2: Congressman and she talked about a special moment, a couple

803
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 2: of moments that took place yesterday where Americans from all

804
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 2: walks of life came together unity around the eclipse. As

805
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 2: someone who serves not only serves on the Science and

806
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 2: Space Committee, but shairs it, I wonder your thoughts on

807
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 2: the eclipse yesterday and how we might see more moments

808
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 2: like that. How did you watch it?

809
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 8: I was in southeastern Oklahoma in the path of totality

810
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 8: on a state representatives farm, and I will confess I've

811
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 8: never had that experience before. It was incredible. So in

812
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 8: the coming years, my fellow citizens who didn't have a

813
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 8: chance at this one or the previous one, when there

814
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 8: are opportunities, we all need to experience this. It is

815
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 8: just the most amazing thing when the night lights come

816
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 8: on and the wildlife gets quiet, when everything hushes down

817
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 8: for that few moments, that few minutes when it's totally dark,

818
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 8: it really gives you an appreciation for the awe and

819
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 8: magnificence of the universe and the amazing nature of science.

820
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 2: So what did you learn about yourself in that moment?

821
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 8: I learned that the money we spend on scientific research.

822
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 8: The money we spend on NASA, the money we spend

823
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 8: to expand knowledge, is money well spent. And over the

824
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 8: course of centuries, major scientific discoveries have been made watching

825
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 8: the totality of the eclipses of the Sun, principles of astrophysics,

826
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 8: and all those amazing things. We'll see what comes out

827
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 8: of our experiences in North America just yesterday. But it's

828
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,720
Speaker 8: something everyone should do at least one time. If it's possible,

829
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:58,879
Speaker 8: be there for a totality.

830
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 2: That we could talk to you about this. Congressman, come

831
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 2: back next conversation. I want to ask you about going

832
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 2: to the moon with Japan. That's another story that's emerging today.

833
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 2: That's real stuff. Great to have. Frank Lucas, the Republican

834
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: from Oklahoma's the third District.

835
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

836
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

837
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: ron Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also

838
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

839
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

840
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 5: Thirty Here in Washington, where we are just now dealing

841
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 5: with some breaking news. Not from here in the district,

842
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,240
Speaker 5: but actually from the state of Arizona, a critical swing

843
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 5: state in this election cycle. In the state Supreme Court

844
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 5: has just ruled that a sweeping abortion ban can take effect.

845
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 5: This is a rule or a law from eighteen sixty four,

846
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 5: about one hundred and sixty years old, near total ban

847
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,760
Speaker 5: on abortion. It criminalizes abortion by making it a felony

848
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 5: punishable by two to five years in prison for anyone

849
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 5: who performs or helps a woman obtain one. So Joe

850
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 5: taking what is we know a hot button issue, one

851
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 5: that has shown the ability to galvanize turnout in recent

852
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 5: election cycles, including in the midterms in twenty twenty two

853
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 5: and now here it is potentially igniting in a crucial

854
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:17,479
Speaker 5: swing state.

855
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. Interesting, there is an exception here that's the life

856
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 2: of a woman in this case codified in nineteen oh

857
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:30,240
Speaker 2: one and again in nineteen thirteen after Arizona became a state. Look,

858
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 2: this is just another reminder from voters that this is

859
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: going to be an issue that they will have to

860
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 2: factor into their decisions in November. And it's where we

861
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 2: start our conversation with our panel today. Rick Davis is

862
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:44,320
Speaker 2: with us Bloomberg Politics contributor. Of course, longtime Republican strategist,

863
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,919
Speaker 2: joined by Brad Howard, Democratic strategist. Now the Corcoran Street

864
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 2: Group is great to have both of you with us. Rick, you,

865
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 2: of course are a veteran of Arizona politics. How much

866
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: of a concern should this be for Republicans running in

867
00:45:58,200 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 2: that state.

868
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 9: This is a major concern for all the players in

869
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 9: the state. You know, it's not necessarily been a battleground

870
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 9: for abortion in the past. This law that you were describing,

871
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 9: a Civil War era law hasn't been on the books

872
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 9: really since Roe v. Wade. But once it was overturned

873
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 9: by the Dobbs decision, the state had to reconcile its laws,

874
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 9: and as the Supreme Court indicated today in Arizona, this

875
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 9: law still is on the books and now takes precedent.

876
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 9: Arizona had a fifteen week ban on abortion prior to that.

877
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 9: And the other thing that's happening that actually, this just

878
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 9: adds incredible amount of fuel to the fire. This decision

879
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 9: by the Supreme Court in Arizona is that there's a

880
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 9: referendum that looks like it's going to wind up on

881
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,919
Speaker 9: the ballot. They're collecting signatures. They have over one hundred

882
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 9: and twenty thousand more signatures than they need today and

883
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 9: they keep going until July. But the group of abortion

884
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 9: reproductive right advocates are going to put on a twenty

885
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 9: four week ban on the ballot. Now, this is going

886
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 9: to be a huge fight in Arizona, and the fact

887
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 9: that the law has now retreated to a civil war

888
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 9: air law is going to make it even more dynamic

889
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 9: in this regard. And this is a state that Joe

890
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 9: Biden only won by three tenths of a percent last

891
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 9: time around. So, Yeah, anybody who tells you abortion isn't

892
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 9: going to be a hot button issue in Arizona this

893
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 9: year and may even determine the outcome of the presidential

894
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:35,280
Speaker 9: election in that state, doesn't understand how tied to margins

895
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 9: Arizona has.

896
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's an excellent point, Brick. And of course it's

897
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,240
Speaker 5: not just presidential candidates that will be on the ballot.

898
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 5: There's a critical Senate race as well in Arizona. Brad

899
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 5: it's Kerry Lake the Republican, versus Rubin Gego the Democrat,

900
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 5: and Guyago right on. Que puts out a statement reacting

901
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 5: to the Supreme Court ruling, saying here in Arizona. We

902
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 5: support a woman's right to an abortion, which is why

903
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 5: I'm going to defeat Carry Lake and fight like hell

904
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 5: to protect abortion rights once and for all. Does this

905
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 5: decision from the court make it more likely that he

906
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 5: will do so? He will defeat carry Lake, or at

907
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 5: least it's a lot harder for Carry Lake now.

908
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 10: Absolutely, and in full transparency, I'm a friend of Ruben

909
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 10: Geago with the congressman and you know him well, And

910
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,879
Speaker 10: absolutely he's going to take full advantage of this. He's

911
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 10: going to bludgeon his opponent time and again with this position.

912
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 10: Is smart for him, It's going to consolidate his base.

913
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 10: He's been consistent on this issue and he's been a

914
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 10: fighter in the House for reproductive freedoms. He will be

915
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 10: in the Senate. There is no equivocation with Ruben Diego.

916
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 10: But also take a step back to the presidential as well.

917
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,959
Speaker 10: Keep in mind what just happened yesterday. Trump came out

918
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 10: and endorsed leaving this up to the states. Thereby, Trump

919
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,280
Speaker 10: is okay with this policy, he thinks Arizona should decide. Therefore,

920
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,799
Speaker 10: Arizona now has this as the law of the land,

921
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 10: which Trump supports. So it's a reminder that Trump is

922
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 10: the reason we are having these draconian laws back to

923
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 10: the pre before the Civil War put in in place

924
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 10: because of Trump's efforts to overturn successfulge to overturn roby wave,

925
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 10: and now his position that each state should decide. So

926
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 10: Trump owns this, and absolutely you're going to see President

927
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:10,280
Speaker 10: Biden take advantage of this as well, and the remind

928
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 10: voters time and again that Republicans' position on this is

929
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 10: way out of touch with modern era and most swing voters.

930
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 2: Brad makes a great point, Rick, I know that you

931
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 2: questioned Donald Trump's strategy in making that announcement yesterday, a

932
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 2: lot of people pointing to Florida. He didn't even weigh

933
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 2: in on his own state. But you could also look

934
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 2: at this as a tacit endorsement of every state's abortion policy,

935
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 2: couldn't you sure?

936
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 9: I mean, this is the kind of thing that just

937
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 9: gives a campaign manager fits and starts. You know, they

938
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 9: do what they think is right by releasing that, and

939
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 9: then literally the next day one of the key swing

940
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,720
Speaker 9: states has a supreme court state Supreme court that throws

941
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 9: this kind of thing over the transom. I mean, it's

942
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 9: a disaster everybody who can get a microphone in front

943
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 9: of Trump's going to ask him, so, does this mean

944
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:58,360
Speaker 9: you endorse the state of Arizona's civil war ban and

945
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 9: criminalization of abortion? I mean, what does he say? Right,

946
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 9: He's like, well, I thought I'd left it up to

947
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 9: the states. It's a mess in Florida too, another very

948
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 9: key state that Democrats are put pumping a lot of

949
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 9: money into right now because they have an abortion referendum

950
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 9: that has come up on their state election cycle this year.

951
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 3: So you know it's going.

952
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 9: To be, at least in those two states a very

953
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 9: very big issue. Whether it Trump's things like immigration of

954
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 9: the economy, I don't know, but it gives Democrats something

955
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 9: to talk about and helps them push their turnout mechanisms

956
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 9: on this issue. So I'd say this week advantage Democrats

957
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 9: when it comes to Donald Trump's you know, sort of

958
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 9: non position states rights thing on abortion. I mean, it

959
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 9: looks like.

960
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 10: If I can jump into Florida ballot initiative, it is

961
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 10: interesting because Trump can no longer just say states rights.

962
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 10: Trump is going to have to vote as a private

963
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 10: citizen in the ballot box on Florida's abortion question. So

964
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 10: at some point he's going to have to express that opinion.

965
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a very good point. This was the conversation

966
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 5: we were having yesterday was has he basically avoided having

967
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 5: to address a national a federal abortion ban policy by

968
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,479
Speaker 5: releasing the video he did yesterday or could this also

969
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 5: be something that changes as time goes on, which is

970
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:20,799
Speaker 5: definitely a question that the former president will have to

971
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 5: grapple with at the same time, of course, that he's

972
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,360
Speaker 5: running a reelection to campaign. So it's great to have

973
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:27,720
Speaker 5: both of you reacting to this breaking news out of Arizona.

974
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 5: That's not actually what we intended to talk with you

975
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 5: about today, Brad and Rick, because today is the day

976
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 5: Congress comes back and there's much to discuss there as well. Rick,

977
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 5: how optimistic are you that this will be a productive

978
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 5: week or even next week before they go back into

979
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 5: recess again? For the House? What actually can be accomplished

980
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:48,399
Speaker 5: in a short period of time when they've proven time

981
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:50,280
Speaker 5: and again that they have a lot of difficulty getting

982
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 5: anything over the finish line.

983
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 9: Well, the one thing I'm learning is not to read

984
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 9: tea leaves and the House are representatives anymore. And I'd

985
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 9: say that this is sort of in the cake week right,

986
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 9: they're going to have to figure out what they're going

987
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 9: to do, how they're going to tee up some of

988
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 9: these initiatives. We've talked about the fies A law needing

989
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:11,359
Speaker 9: to be reauthorized, we talked about the Ukraine supplemental. These

990
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 9: are really hot button issues, but there are half a

991
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 9: dozen other really important issues that need to get dealt with,

992
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 9: including new initiatives like online privacy acts that actually have

993
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 9: a lot of political saliency out there. So they got

994
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 9: to go to work. I mean, this has been the

995
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 9: biggest do nothing Congress in history. They don't have a

996
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 9: history of being able to enact laws, and I think

997
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 9: that's going to be The real trick is what can

998
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 9: they get done in these two weeks to at least

999
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 9: take something off the table before they take another break.

1000
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 2: Well, there's an important committee meeting Rules Committee later on today, Brad,

1001
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 2: where they're going to start marking up apparently a FISA

1002
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 2: renewal bill. Can this actually get done in the next

1003
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:53,280
Speaker 2: two weeks? Could Mike Johnson say, see, I've got something

1004
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 2: to show for the fact that we came back to Washington.

1005
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 10: Look, the one good thing about the House is the

1006
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 10: majority treading rule. The Speaker commits to something and his

1007
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 10: caucuses behind him. Absolutely, you can fly through things in minutes.

1008
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 10: So there's still time to get this done. And I

1009
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 10: think Rules is going to probably put together the structure

1010
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 10: of what this debate would be and they'll insert the text,

1011
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 10: you know, when they reach that agreement, which is a

1012
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 10: typical way of moving the process forward even if you

1013
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 10: don't have text, which is to the rank and file

1014
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 10: very frustrating because you want to read these bills and

1015
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 10: have put in time to consider them beforehand. But keep

1016
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 10: in mind that you've also got the motion to vacate

1017
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:28,760
Speaker 10: the chair that in any minute could disrupt the chamber.

1018
00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 10: There are ways that Speaker Johnson could punt this to

1019
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 10: when they come back, but he's going to have to

1020
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:36,399
Speaker 10: address it at some point if Marjorie Taylor Green does

1021
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 10: move forward with the motion to vacate. So that's going

1022
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 10: to impact things. But you know, usually on issues of

1023
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 10: national security, it's fairly easy. On these issues. He's got

1024
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 10: the history of the fact that usually speakers cobble together

1025
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 10: coalition from both parties. You don't need all your caucus

1026
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 10: to support you. Look at the NDAA, that's the moderates

1027
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 10: of both parties and the extremes on both sides vote

1028
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 10: no similar thing here with fiasas he's got some you

1029
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 10: know his precedent here to not have to have full

1030
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 10: Republican support here. He can move forward as long as

1031
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 10: he's got to eighteen among the Democrats, I mean among

1032
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:12,439
Speaker 10: the moderates on both parties. So I think this could

1033
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:13,279
Speaker 10: get done.

1034
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 5: Rad just quickly. We only have thirty seconds left. But

1035
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 5: should Democrats ask for anything in exchange from Johnson if

1036
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 5: they were to save him. Should this motion to vacate

1037
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 5: actually happen other than ukraineate or is that in and

1038
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:27,359
Speaker 5: of itself enough for the party here?

1039
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 10: This is my concern with deals like that is were

1040
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 10: you were giving up a one time thing or an

1041
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 10: ongoing speakership.

1042
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 9: Right.

1043
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 10: So if I'm going to I want to trade apples

1044
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 10: and apples, right, I want it to be even trade,

1045
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 10: not a one time give for eight more months of governing.

1046
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 10: If they're going to do that, they need to have

1047
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 10: structural reforms to the House, so a power sharing agreement.

1048
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:50,640
Speaker 10: Maybe they get control of the agenda for some key committees.

1049
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:53,359
Speaker 10: Maybe they expand the number of Democrats on rules or

1050
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 10: E and C or ways and means that would be

1051
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 10: a fair trade in my opinion, If you give us

1052
00:54:57,480 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 10: the chance to participate in governing, maybe will save you.

1053
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 10: But if you're not going to give us any say

1054
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 10: whatsoever and the agenda or the priorities of the House,

1055
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:08,399
Speaker 10: why would we save you. So I think there's gonna happen.

1056
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:11,799
Speaker 10: That's a fair conversation to happen, all right.

1057
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 5: Brad Howard, Democratic strategist and Rick Davis are Republican strategist today.

1058
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 5: Thank you both so much.

1059
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 10: For joining us.

1060
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1061
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1062
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1063
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1064
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.