1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: The volume. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What 2 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: is up Straight Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire 3 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: for Wednesday, November twenty second. Thanksgiving week is here. This 4 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: is Thanksgiving Eve. I will take the rest of the 5 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: week off this podcast. You know, we'll do best bets 6 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: for the NFL. Listen. It's tough for the weekend getting 7 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: the bets in on Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, Okay, Thanksgiving, 8 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: I get Thanksgiving Day. Black Friday is a crap game. 9 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: We'll talk a little bit about Michigan, Ohio State. But 10 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: as usual, whatever picks you don't see or hear here, 11 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: whatever picks you don't hear here, they will be on 12 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: on my ig social media over the weekend. You know, 13 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: sometimes you need to kind of power down, get off 14 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: social media. Nothing really to be gained there when there's 15 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: nothing going on. It's it's also good to, you know, 16 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: just kind of unplug for a little bit. This isn't 17 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 1: a full unplug obviously. I will be on the Herd 18 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: today and then I'm just gonna take some time off, 19 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: hang with the fam, recharge those batteries and taking some sports. Listen. 20 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: Tuesday night was a tremendous sports night just across the board. 21 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: Yet NBA action, no doubt. As usual, NBA just continues 22 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: to deliver. I'm not gonna go in depth because you know, 23 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 1: it's just it's late November in the NBA. But this 24 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: end season tournament has some juice. Tyrese Haliburton and the 25 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: Pacers are a big story. The Lakers just destroy it. 26 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: I mean, just pound the Jazz into submission. They advance 27 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: in the nd season tournament, you know, quietly. The Orlando 28 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: Magic are nine to five. I'll just I just put 29 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: that out there. Nice win for them. Calves with the 30 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: nice win over the Sixers, you know, Suns win. While 31 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: we're on NBA again, this is the largely NFL podcast 32 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: today with some college hoops, but I just wanted to 33 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: touch on an NBA thing I saw and somebody tagged 34 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: me in this where I would not have seen it. 35 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: Gilbert Arenas has a podcast and he had on what's 36 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: his name, Rashad McCants. You guys know, Rashad mccant's obviously 37 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: former North Carolina star. He kind of flamed out in uh, 38 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: which I would call it Minnesota. I believe Minnesota. He 39 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: had some I think he dated a Kardashian. It wasn't pretty, 40 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,399 Speaker 1: but Rashad McCants could get buckets back in the day 41 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: at any rate. He went on the Gilbert Arenas podcast 42 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: and said, why doesn't Kevin Durant get the love that 43 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: Lebron and Steth Curry are getting? And it's a really 44 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: really weak take, It's like very obvious, and his theory is, well, 45 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: the media wants to gas up Lebron and Curry. And 46 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: then a woman who I'm not familiar with, maybe a 47 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 1: former player, chimes in, you know, well Steph and Lebron 48 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: are fathers and a lot of people in Middle America 49 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: can relate to them, which is a great point, just tremendous, 50 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 1: And that Gilbert Arenas comes in. He says, well, you know, 51 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: it's about the cities. Look at the reason Larry was 52 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: good was he was embossed with a loaded team and 53 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: Michael Jordan in Chicago and Magic in LA and you 54 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: need the big cities. And I'm just sitting here listening 55 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: to these guys. I'm like, you know, there is a 56 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: common thread you're missing, gil You know Magic one early often, 57 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: Larry Bird won early often three straight MVPs. Michael Jordan 58 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: one got to the finals, one Steph Curry one, then 59 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: got KD one more, then KD left, Curry won another one. 60 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: Lebron wins in in Miami, then he wins to Cleveland, 61 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: and he goes to Lakers winning. That's the reason they're 62 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: big deals. You know what happened with Kevin Durant, right 63 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: he won in Golden State and hasn't won since. He 64 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: made a critical mistake. And I don't know, listen, the 65 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: injury happened or whatever. But and I said this on 66 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: the Herd when Kevin Durant went to the Warriors. He 67 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: was heading into the finals against Lebron, and I said, 68 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: Kevin Durant's gonna win the MVP and he's gonna be 69 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: the best player in the league. That's what's gonna happen. 70 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: You guys can look it up the videos out there. 71 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: I have it, favored it on my Twitter, put it 72 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: on my ig but you got to scroll way down 73 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: all past the other crap at any rate. And Kevin 74 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: Durant won the finals, MVP destroyed Lebron head to head. 75 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: I know Lebron was out man. Then he did it 76 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 1: again the next year. Lebron had taken a back seat 77 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: to Kevin Durant, who was the best player in the 78 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 1: league when he was on the worst, he was the best, unstoppable, 79 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: and then he got hurt and he made the decision 80 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: to leave for Brooklyn. Now his decision could be traced 81 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: to Draymond Green, it could be traced to Steph Curry 82 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,840 Speaker 1: getting too much love, whatever it was, not feeling love, 83 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 1: the Golden State, whatever you want to point it to. 84 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 1: Kevin Durant left, and you know what, he hasn't won. 85 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 1: Since you're not gonna be on top of the league. 86 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: If you don't win, it's kind of important. You've got 87 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: to win. Like I don't know how Gilbert Arenas is 88 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 1: missing this. It's very basic. If you don't win titles, 89 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. The media is really rooting for Joel Embiid. 90 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: He got that MVP. Can can the guy get to 91 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 1: the conference finals before we gas him up anymore? The 92 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: NFL season is going strong, and DraftKings sportsbook is hooking 93 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: new customers up with an offer that's even stronger. Bet 94 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: five bucks on any game this week to score two 95 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets, and DraftKings isn't stopping there. 96 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: All customers can take advantage of a sweetener offer every 97 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: game day this October. Get in on the game day greatness. 98 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: Download the DraftKings sports Book app now and use code 99 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: straight fire. 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I know, I 116 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: just got sucked into three minutes on the NBA robbed. 117 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: He's gonna kill me at any rate. Besides the NBA, 118 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: on Tuesday night, you had really good college basketball. Marquette 119 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: thumped Kansas in a really good game. Marquette looks good. 120 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 1: You had the Tennessee Perdue game was kind of sloppy 121 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 1: because the refereeing. JMU won again five and zero undefeated, 122 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: to go go Dukes. And then in soccer you had 123 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 1: Argentinea Brazil in a World Cup qualify a great game. 124 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: Argentita gets to win. Listen, man, it's really nice Thanksgiving week. 125 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: We've got just incredible sports. It's fun. I'm taking a 126 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: little time off hoops before the playoffs start. Get let 127 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: recharge the battery body as well as the batteries. Yes, yes, 128 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: but anyways, it's time to get to the NFL, and 129 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: I guess we'll save college foot now. You know what, 130 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: let me just kick college football out of the way 131 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: right now. I went ahead and bet in Michigan minus 132 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: three with some juice against Ohio State. Now, what's weird 133 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: is this has gone down? I think on the look 134 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: ahead last week this was four and a half, and 135 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: then there's the Harbass stuff, and it seems like the 136 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: sharp money is coming in on Ohio State. Now, hey, 137 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: you could say whatever you want about sharp money and 138 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: sharp accuracy, but I'm not really buying it. I think 139 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: Michigan is a side here. I don't really think there's 140 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: much doubt. Of course, when I say it that confidently, 141 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: I run into Matt Lioner at the gym and I'm like, 142 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: you know, I just tell him my score prediction. I said, 143 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: I give me Michigan thirty Ohio State thirteen. He goes, 144 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: I don't know, man. I was like what, and he goes, 145 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: I think Ohio State's gonna win. And I was a 146 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: little stunned. And you know, listen, Liner's been around these 147 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: teams way way more than I have in recent years. 148 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: This is, for whatever reason, one of these series that 149 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: Ohio States had won a million of them in a row. Actually, 150 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: I'll count to me exact one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. 151 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: They had bludgeoned Harbaughs sixty two, thirty nine, fifty six, 152 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: twenty seven, and then in the last two years, Michigan 153 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: has handled them, and it's been They've been incredibly high 154 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: scoring games forty two, twenty seven, forty five, twenty three. 155 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: Last year was the game. Remember Ohio State had CJ. 156 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: Stroud last year, okay, and Michigan had this quarterback that 157 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: how many people knew about named JJ Kcarthy, who wasn't 158 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 1: even a starter at the beginning of the season. He was 159 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: started battling for the job. And Michigan has just looked 160 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:10,719 Speaker 1: more complete. Now, don't give me this bs about the 161 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: defensive assignments. Okay, the defensive signals or whatever the conyor 162 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: Stallion Johns was doing. Stallion, sorry, did not result in 163 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: Michigan getting forty five points to forty two points the 164 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 1: last two years. Bottom line is Michigan has gotten better. 165 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: It took some time under Harball. He's got the best team. 166 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: This is his best team ever. They get Ohio State 167 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: in ann Arbor. It looks like the weather's not going 168 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: to be great, but not going to be horrible. It's 169 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: not like they're calling for snow or anything. I just 170 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: look at this Michigan defense and I'm like, listen, Ryan 171 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: Day better have some stuff cooked up, because moving the 172 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: ball against Michigan has been extremely tough. Maryland was down 173 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 1: twenty four to three before they did anything, and they 174 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: were at home when their rally was sparked, and Michigan 175 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: was probably you know, midway through that game thinking about 176 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:03,319 Speaker 1: Ohio State and the game, as they call it, so Saturday, 177 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: this is appointment viewing. I'm super geeked because there's no 178 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: youth sports. In my youth sports I means my kids 179 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: don't have any tournaments or anything. Because it's Thanksgiving break, 180 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: so I won't you know, I'll be locked into the 181 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: entire game. I don't know if I'll be playing hoops 182 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: this weekend. Oh maybe I will get in hoops before 183 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: so ah, yeah, the game will start. It'll start at 184 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: nine am. Interesting. Maybe I'll get in a little hoops, 185 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: just a light run. Yeah, you need a good sweat 186 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: to start the weekend. Come on anyway, I'll go Michigan thirty, 187 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: Ohio State thirteen. I just don't trust the Ohio State quarterback. 188 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:41,439 Speaker 1: I know they got that win at Notre Dame, but 189 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: they did not look particularly great and you could argue 190 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: that Notre Dame should have won that game. So I 191 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: will go Michigan winning and advancing to the Big Ten 192 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: title game where they will just throttle whoever they face, 193 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: and Michigan will be in the playoff. That's the Marque 194 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: College football game. It's on fire, obviously should be a 195 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: fun one. Let me now get to the NFL. We'll start. 196 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 1: I'm not going to go through every single game. I 197 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: do not have a ton of bets on the board. 198 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: I'll go through the bets at the beginning, and then 199 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: we'll go through some of the games the way I 200 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,599 Speaker 1: viewed them. Contest with the Kansas City lost just to 201 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: Killer three and two. I really was close to four 202 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: and one and it would have been like one of 203 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: those Okay, let's get the push started. Thirty five games left. 204 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: You know, there's a chance i'd say, what do I 205 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 1: need to cash? If I go twenty five and ten 206 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: the rest of the way, I think that probably cashes. 207 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: But can I go twenty five and ten? Like there's 208 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 1: no room for error this week? You've got to hit, 209 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: you know, you gotta go. That's a lot of four 210 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: and ones. So I have I bet some totals for 211 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: this week. I took the over forty one on Dolphins Jets. 212 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: I don't understand why the Dolphins would not get at 213 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: least thirty points. Here Tim Boyle, who is a we 214 00:11:58,400 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: don't really know what it is, but he's not an 215 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: n quarterback. We do know that. Like I just I 216 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: don't trust him. Maybe they have some crazy stuff cooked up. 217 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 1: Maybe the Jets get a special team score. I don't know. 218 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: I don't really see the Jets getting to fourteen, but 219 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: I don't see them holding Miami under thirty. And don't say, well, Jason, 220 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: the Raiders did. Miami was coming off the bike and 221 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: they knew they had a division game coming up next. 222 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: They were not locked in on that game. And you 223 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: could tell by the way I think midway. They didn't 224 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: have a punt through the first three quarters, and as 225 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: I was reading the box score, didn't have a punt 226 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 1: for the first three quarters. And I was on Miami 227 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: last week at thirteen or twelve or ten, whatever it was. 228 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: They didn't cover. But they moved the football just to 229 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: weird turnovers and wacky stuff. And even if the Jets 230 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: are plucky and somehow make this interesting, great, it's gonna 231 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: sail over forty one. So that was one of the 232 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: first bets I also have in hindsight, don't love that 233 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: San Francisco minus six and a half now that was 234 00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: placed on Sunday after you know, Gino Smith had been hurt. 235 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: At the second this hit, I was like, you know what, 236 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: let me just get this in case Gino doesn't go. 237 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: Let me go ahead and grab it. I got Denver 238 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: minus one minus one twenty one against Cleveland. This is 239 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: simply a bet against a rookie quarterback dtr going on 240 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: the road to face a really good Denver defense. Denver 241 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: now firmly in the postseason mix. Yes, I do think 242 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: Denver will struggle offensively. You probably can look at the 243 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: under here too, because Cleveland doesn't allow much. But Cleveland's 244 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: coming off one of those body bag games against Pittsburgh. 245 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: You know, those rivalry games beat you up, and there's 246 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: a world where Russell Wilson makes just enough plays to 247 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: get them to I don't know, a seventeen thirteen win 248 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: something in that ballpark. But listen, Denver, it's a little 249 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: smoke and mirrors. It's a lot of handoffs, it's a 250 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: lot of running back dives, a lot of screen passes, 251 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: a lot of like junk plays, and there's nothing wrong 252 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: with that. You know, you need some of those some 253 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: of those games. But for instance, the last time, well 254 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 1: I'm trying to look at the last time. They started right. 255 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: So DTR started at home against Baltimore on like no notice, 256 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 1: was terrible. Then PJ Walker started at home against San 257 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: frank He was bad, but they won. PJ Walker started 258 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: at Indy. They were thoroughly outplayed. The defense was just 259 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: led up a billion yards in Indy and Cleveland was 260 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: able to steal a win. PJ Walker went to Seattle 261 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: lost the game. Like now we're talking about DTR going 262 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: to a dis denverd defense is not the same group 263 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: that gave up seventy and seven hundred yards to Miami. 264 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: They're just it's not They're totally different. They're improved. You know, 265 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 1: they've really cleaned up their act. I mean you could 266 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: that sometimes you got to hit rock bottom right before 267 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: you bounce back. So I do think, you know, I 268 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: don't feel amazing about Denver. But I took minus one, 269 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: so it's minus one twenty one, So it's like one 270 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty one bucks to win one hundred, for instance. 271 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: And you know the logic here is, I don't know 272 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: that I trust Denver to get margin you know this 273 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: could be instantly a twelve twelve ten game based on 274 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: field goals, Like Denver is not good at getting margins, 275 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: so you want to buy down. I don't hate the 276 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: buying down to one and paying a little more juice. 277 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: I have the Indianapolis Colts minus two. Of course, Cowherd, 278 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: the swell guy that he is. Right after the Eagles covered, 279 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: you know, he's like four and one. Baby. I love 280 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts this week, and I just laughed because 281 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: I was like, I did look at them, and I 282 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: had the Colts minus two against Tampa. I don't love it. 283 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 1: Did you see the Darius Leonard news? Like? Where did 284 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: that come from? Out of the blue? I guess you know, 285 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: something must internally must have gone down the secondary stings 286 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: like Baker's playing. Okay, I mean I think I talk myself. 287 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: And I did the mock draft for Fox Sports this week. 288 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: Everybody loved it, of course, because everybody only loves mock drafts. 289 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: I don't know Big moving the football well, like they 290 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: were right there against Mighty Houston. They almost covered against Sanford, 291 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: Like they moved the football while they throttle Tennessee. I 292 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: don't it's not that I don't trust Tampa. I just 293 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: I think this is a total bet on Shane Stikeen 294 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: because I just think he's such a baller. Oh my gosh, 295 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: this guy's I just I'm all in on Shane Stikeen. 296 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: If the Jets had gotten my'd be thrilled. I also 297 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: have the Rams minus one against Arizona. I know Cooper 298 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: Cup's probably not in. I just don't think Arizona's very good. 299 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: Historically McVeigh has dominated Arizona. I'm not gonna waste you 300 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: your time with the numbers because a lot of them 301 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 1: were built up against Cliff Kingsbury, who's not even there anymore. 302 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: But the Arizona defense, they lost their top linebacker. I 303 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: think they're leading tackler. Kazir White goes on the ir 304 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: like that's huge. Kyri Williams back for the Rams. So 305 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: I like the Rams. Here off that emotional win in 306 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 1: the division. I would not be surprised if they won 307 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: this it. Listen, they're not a playoff team, but McVeigh 308 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: is gonna keep fighting like hel So I like Rams one. 309 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: I also took the over forty two and a half 310 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: in Tampa, Indy. I think it'll be points on points 311 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 1: on points over forty eight and a half, Washington Dallas, 312 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: and then I have like a teaser of San Fran 313 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: down to pick, Houston Texans up to seven, Miami Dolphins 314 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: down to two. I think Miami wins. Maybe the Jets 315 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: are plucky and the Dolphins with buyfield goal, I think 316 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: Texans Jags will be close. I've just underrated the Texans, 317 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: I guess at this point, guys just hubris. I don't 318 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 1: know what it is, just stupidity, but the Texans are good. 319 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 1: And then I think San Fran wins. I would be 320 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: shocked if they lose to Seattle. So those are the 321 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: bets I've made. I want to quickly go through the 322 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving Day games because those are of interest to everyone. 323 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: There's some weird numbers floating around out there that I'm 324 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 1: just going to tell you like they don't matter, but 325 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: people say them and they sound good and it sounds like, oh, well, 326 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 1: you got to ride the trends. Don't freakin ride the trends. 327 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: You heard me last week and you read off a bye, 328 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: and you read off of by everybody parrots and Andy 329 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: Reid off of bye. Well, what happened? Andy read off 330 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: a bye they lost, they didn't cover. But still, because 331 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: he's now twenty one and four against the spread or 332 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: whatever the number is, Like, just because he'd been great 333 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: off of buy in the past, it doesn't mean he's 334 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 1: automatically gonna be great again, right, it's not. These trends 335 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: aren't predictive. So this is one you're gonna hear a lot. Okay, 336 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys in their last twelve on Thanksgiving are 337 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: one and eleven ats. What does that mean nothing? How 338 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 1: many of those games did McCarthy coach? How many of 339 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 1: those games did Dak quarterback? Now what's interesting, well mildly interesting, 340 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: is Dak on Thanksgiving is one in five against the spread. Again, 341 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: just a trend doesn't totally mean anything. A lot of 342 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: stuff matters. Who's the opponent, are there inies? Is in 343 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: adivisual matchup? Like that? Stuff matters, you know, And you 344 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,199 Speaker 1: can't just blindly bet these trends. But I'm telling you 345 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,880 Speaker 1: the Cowboys are a huge favorite against Washington. And you'll 346 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: see the numbers of you know what happens on Thanksgiving, 347 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 1: chalk happens. Favorites of a touchdown are a crazy on 348 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,439 Speaker 1: a run that's twenty one and two straight up, and 349 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 1: the touchdown favorites are seventeen and six against the spread. Well, 350 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: Dallas fits that. The Detroit Lions fit that Chalk City right, 351 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: and then you start thinking, well, oh okay, it's gonna 352 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: be Dallas. And then you think, well, Washington had just 353 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: lost to the New York Giants, and try to get 354 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: in the mind of the sports book. Why would this 355 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: line be so high. Well, nobody's gonna be betting Washington. 356 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:49,959 Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna say Dallas, they're a juggernaut, they beat up 357 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: on bad teams. When you hear this, people, everybody's saying 358 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,919 Speaker 1: the same damn thing. It's time to run and I 359 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: miss that with the Chiefs and I gotta do better. 360 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 1: Everybody was saying the same crap. And it's not like 361 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: I didn't know I just everybody. Everybody was in this. 362 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 1: Everybody's on the same thing. You got to back off. 363 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: And interestingly, in the contest last week, I loved and 364 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: I had bet Miami as a favorite, and then it 365 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 1: got to Saturday and I'm you know, looking around. You 366 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 1: do like a quick search on social media for for 367 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 1: Dolphins Raiders or whatever it is spread and it's like 368 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: every single person is done. Miami. I was like, nope, 369 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. I can't and I'll I'll still 370 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 1: argue like Kansas City. I don't feel like I was wrong, 371 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: but I don't want to be with the masses. And 372 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: I'm just telling you right now, everybody's gonna be on Dallas. 373 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,679 Speaker 1: They beat up on bad teams. So I started digging 374 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: around last night and I'm like, all right, let's look 375 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: into this game a little bit. So I would agree 376 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: Washington stinks. They just lost to the New York Giants 377 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 1: and Tommy DeVito. That being said, let's look at that 378 00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: game just a little bit closer. So the Washington Commanders 379 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 1: turned the ball over six times. At one point in 380 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, they had five turnovers, and yet Sam 381 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: Howell was driving for a score to take the lead. 382 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,479 Speaker 1: So consider this, they had five turnovers and the Giants 383 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: were so inept they could not get margin. And then 384 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: Howell throws a pick six and the kid runs it 385 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: back for the six turnover, and that was the ballgame. Okay, 386 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 1: So turnover March is six to nothing. I know Dallas 387 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: Force's turnovers, right, I get it. Bland with the four 388 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: pick sixes, let's just be They're not going to turn 389 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: the ball over six times again, guys. In an oddity, 390 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,360 Speaker 1: Washington was a huge favorite in that game. Washington when 391 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: favored this year has been a train wreck. You know what, 392 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 1: Washington's been good at being an underdog. Fun stat here, folks, 393 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 1: are you ready probably not hearing this anywhere? As a 394 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,959 Speaker 1: dog this year Washington five to one and one against spread, 395 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: they raised their life level of play when people don't 396 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: respect him, When everybody thinks they're gonna beat the Bears 397 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 1: and justin fields at home, they get their ass kicked. 398 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 1: But when they have to play Philadelphia twice and it's like, oh, 399 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: Philadelphia is a big favorite, Washington delivers both times push 400 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: and a cover. Washington fights like hell. They went to 401 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: Seattle and covered. I'm just telling you, when they face 402 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: good teams, they raise their level of plays. It sounds 403 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 1: silly and you can't quantify it, but what you can 404 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 1: say is Ron Rivers is an embattled coach. He's certainly 405 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: gone after this season. Eric b Enemy, Listen, man, you 406 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: can't play There's no point in playing it safe anymore. 407 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: You got to get in your bag of tricks. I 408 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: can see Washington hanging around, hanging around. I'm sure they'll 409 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: have a bunch of screw ups, but this much you 410 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: know how, will ain't gonna stop slinging it. And one 411 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: other quick note, football is back. No more preseason games. 412 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: The regular season is here. While we all love watching 413 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: our favorite teams on television, there is nothing better than 414 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 1: being in a game live person. And the best way 415 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: to get tickets to any of these games is on 416 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 1: game Time, the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, 417 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: for last minute, amazing deals on tickets to see your 418 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 1: favorite football teams this September. Download game Time. And it's 419 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 1: not just football. Game Time has tickets to baseball games, concerts, 420 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: and comedy shows across the country. Download the game Time 421 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: app and redeem code Jmack for twenty dollars off your 422 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Download the game Time app 423 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: and enter code jmack. That's Jmac for twenty dollars off. 424 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: No matter where you live, get out and have some 425 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: fun this week. Download game Time today, last minute tickets, 426 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed. So here are the ten quarterbacks Dallas 427 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 1: has faced this season. This is are you ready? Okay? 428 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,919 Speaker 1: So they faced brock Purty, who carved them up and 429 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: embarrassed them. Okay. They faced Jalen Hurts who did fairly 430 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: well against them, and they in Jalen Hurts beat and 431 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: then they faced Justin Herbert, who had like an okay 432 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: game but wasn't great. He was okay. So they faced 433 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 1: three good quarterbacks. Here are the rest of the guys. 434 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 1: They faced Daniel Jones in the opener, he's crap, Mac 435 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 1: Jones garbage, Zach Wilson, No need to kick the guy 436 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,919 Speaker 1: when he's down, Tommy DeVito, you know, I don't need 437 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: to say anything, Bryce Young, Josh Dobbs, Now listen, and 438 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: nobody's saying Josh Dobbs is good. He's competitive, he'll catch 439 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 1: you to hang around, but he's not coming out and 440 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 1: like beating you with his arm. Maybe with his legs 441 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 1: and his pluckiness and his moxye, but let's be real, 442 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 1: Josh Dobbs is not a good quarterback. Like he's not 443 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: like a top fifteen guy, great backup, outstanding backup, but 444 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 1: I'm putting him in the Dallas faced another bad quarterback, 445 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: and then Matt Stafford, who's good but got hurt in 446 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 1: the second quarter. So Dallas really hasn't faced anybody Instep 447 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: Sam Howell. And what is Sam Howell? Is he closer 448 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: to Bryce Young, Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, or is he 449 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: maybe like a cut above the those guys Given his 450 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: results in some of these games, I would say he's 451 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: better than those guys at least right now. And I'm 452 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: not saying Sam Howell two years of tape in might 453 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: be over. That's a wrap. But I would say right now, 454 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 1: Sam Howell's gonna be one of the better quarterbacks than 455 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: Washington's face. I think why I just made the case 456 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: probably way too long that Washington will be aside for 457 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: me now, I'm not doing it in the contest because 458 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: then you got to put in all five if you 459 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 1: do if you do one, so I'll be on Washington 460 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: getting ten and a half the first game Detroit Green Bay. 461 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: You guys remember my whole Like, what of the One 462 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,439 Speaker 1: of the data points I like to look at is 463 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: teams that did not cover the prior week first teams 464 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: that did so this took a major bath. What week 465 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 1: was It was a week ten a couple of weeks ago. Yeah, 466 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 1: it was week ten, did not cover verse did cover 467 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 1: when one, five and one? It was tough last week 468 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: there was only one game and it was Washington, New York. 469 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 1: I want to know this one falls into the green 470 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: Bay covered Detroit did not. And my first inclination is, 471 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,479 Speaker 1: I think you gotta take green Bay right the Detroit 472 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:20,160 Speaker 1: defensive spotty, Yeah, I think you gotta go. And then 473 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: I said, wait, wait a minute, Wait a minute, am 474 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: I getting sucked into something. Detroit is the better team. 475 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: Detroit thumped them earlier this year, Detroit swept them last year. 476 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: It's a divisional matchup, and you wonder how much familiarity 477 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 1: the Packers have with the Lions, and how much the 478 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: Lions know, like, hey, we win this, this is our division, 479 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 1: Like they're not coming to get us. Like people think 480 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,400 Speaker 1: green Bay can hang around and maybe make a run 481 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 1: on a walk card. It's not happening other way. If 482 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 1: you don't win this game, I think Detroit can deliver 483 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 1: the knockout blow here. And you look at the injury report. 484 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: Devondra Campbell, the great linebacker for the Packers, one of 485 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 1: their leading tacklers, has not practice, doesn't look like he's 486 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: a go. Aaron Jones, the running back who has killed 487 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 1: my fantasy team repeatedly. I don't want to discuss it. 488 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:14,120 Speaker 1: He's not a go Luke Musgrave. I think he has 489 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: a lacerated kidney. Something's wrong. He's out. So all of 490 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 1: a sudden, you got guys don Terrian Wicks, the young 491 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 1: receiver who's shown some pop. He's out. It's like, wait 492 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 1: a minute. They played a tough game against the Chargers 493 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: at home. They really went all out. They needed that win, 494 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 1: they got it, and now they have to face kind 495 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:40,880 Speaker 1: of like the number four team in the NFC, one 496 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: that's hunting the number one overall seed. I think I 497 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: gotta go Lions, guys. I think I'm gonna lay at 498 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 1: seven and a half. And then the night game. I 499 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: already told you I took San fran We'll see how 500 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: how Gino Smith does. You guys know, I've been extremely 501 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 1: burned badly by Seattle this season, and I don't know. 502 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 1: There's just a team I cannot trust right now. It's 503 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,439 Speaker 1: San Fran or passed for me, uh party in company. 504 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 1: They got all their key guys healthy. We'll see what's 505 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 1: going on with the secondary, which got beat up with 506 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 1: with Hufunga, But for me, it's it's San Francisco. And 507 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 1: then the Friday game, which I really don't care about 508 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 1: at all. It's not a priority for me. I'm not 509 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 1: like a Black Friday kind of guy going out to 510 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: the stores. I don't I don't know. I don't like that. 511 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 1: I don't like going out to the stores at all. 512 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 1: But I'm not touching the Jets. I don't even know 513 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: if I even want to watch them with Tim Boyle, Like, 514 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 1: screw that guy. Come on, They're just They're not going 515 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: to be competitive. It's not going to be fun. I'm 516 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: not looking forward to it. Of course, now that I 517 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: say all this, they'll probably show, but they're under no 518 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 1: circumstances of my betting the Jets. But at the same time, 519 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 1: like Dolphin's going on the road, I don't know, Like, 520 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: I don't think it's just for me neither side. I 521 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: don't see edge either way. I just see the Dolphins 522 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 1: smashing them. But I don't want to like bet money 523 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: on the game. Currently, Dolphins are favored by ten the 524 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: Sunday games that appeal to me. I think, you guys 525 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 1: know I've struggle with the Texas this year. I think 526 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna end up on Jacksonville in the contest. 527 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 1: I'm definitely, Oh, this is one I'm definitely I don't know. 528 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: I haven't bet this yet. New England Patriots favored by three. 529 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: It was for money. Has come in on the New 530 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 1: York Giants because they beat Washington. Oh, Tommy DeVito figured 531 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 1: some things out. I said, you can't only bet trends. 532 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna remind you guys like Bill Belichick throughout 533 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 1: his career has befuddled, totally perplexed rookie quarterbacks. Okay, it 534 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: doesn't matter what team. I mean. I remember when Justin 535 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 1: Herbert was a rookie and I was laying it with 536 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 1: the Chargers against the Patriots in the game I think 537 00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: ended up forty five to nothing. Do you guys remember 538 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: that one? So I'm just I'm not going against Belichick here. 539 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: They had some time off. I don't think they're a 540 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 1: good team. I think laying points with them is insane. 541 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 1: That being said, let me fade Tommy Devido, who unless 542 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 1: the Patriots turn over six times and that could happen 543 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: if Mac Jones starts, I gotta go Patriots here, I 544 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 1: think I'll be on the Steelers. I did look at this, 545 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 1: so you know, Joe Burrow thinks disappointing and one of 546 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 1: the producers on the Herd, who actually was my radio 547 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 1: show producer when I first got to La on the 548 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: Saturday Show. He's a big Bengals guy and he's just 549 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: he's torn up about it, and I was, I was 550 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: talking to him about it. I'm like, you know, Ryan, 551 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 1: you know, here's what's crazy about the NFL. So Joe 552 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 1: Burrow got a two hundred and seventy five million dollar contract. 553 00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 1: The Bengals are all in. He's the face of their franchise. 554 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: They're paying him all all the money as well they should. 555 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: In what business do you put all of your eggs 556 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: in one basket and if that guy gets hurt, you 557 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 1: turn to your backup who is undrafted Jake Browning, who 558 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: before last week when he went in mop up duty 559 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 1: when Burrow had the wrist injury against the Ravens, the 560 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 1: backup to your two hundred seventy five million dollars quarterback 561 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 1: had thrown one pass in his career and he went 562 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 1: undrafted in twenty nineteen, so he's been around the block. 563 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 1: That's your backup. Like, that's just horrible business, is it not? 564 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: How is that good business? Like? I wonder, given how 565 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: many injuries have happened with the quarterbacks this year. Are 566 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 1: team's gonna rethink we gotta spend money on a backup 567 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: quarterback just in case? Because the Bengals have a single 568 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 1: point of failure. They went into the season with super 569 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 1: Bowl dreams and aspirations, and because their star quarterback got 570 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 1: hurt and is out for the seasoneasons over, like, they 571 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 1: are not certainly not going to the super Bowl. They're 572 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 1: certainly not gonna be the number one seed, and like 573 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: the idea of them going to the playoffs is like 574 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 1: slim and none. Right, I mean they're five hundred and 575 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: now you gotta have Jake Browning carry you. So again, 576 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 1: is there an argument where teams should consider spending on 577 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 1: a backup quarterback to give yourself a chance? Like, for instance, 578 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 1: Dallas had Cooper Rush last year, and Cooper Rush came in. 579 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 1: It was pretty good, he was solid, Like he's a 580 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: good backup, and it's like, wait a minute, if Dak 581 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 1: goes down, Cooper Rush could keep us competent, keep us 582 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 1: in the mix. When Carson went Wentz went down, Nick Foles, 583 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,719 Speaker 1: veteran quarterback hadn't done much but had thrown more than 584 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 1: one pass, comes in gets on a hot streak in 585 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: the playoffs, Boom, they win the Super Bowl. Like that's 586 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,479 Speaker 1: not normal. But you need to get a backup who 587 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 1: can make you moderately confident should the starter go down. 588 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: Think about it, this is literally a billion dollar business, 589 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 1: this NFL team, and it's all really hinging on an 590 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 1: injury to one guy and the season's over. It's just 591 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 1: bad business. So I will be on the Steelers. I'm sure, 592 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: of course the Bengals will show up with the kitchen 593 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 1: sing game, but I think the Steelers bounce back here 594 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 1: after the loss to the Browns. My guess is a 595 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: deflated rate Bengals team shows up, Jamar Chase is frustrated 596 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 1: because they can't get him the ball. I think I'm 597 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: all probably gonna be on the Steelers. I'm looking Falcons 598 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 1: or pass in the contest because I saw a Lottimore 599 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 1: is not gonna play, likely not gonna play. Michael Thomas 600 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 1: on the IR and Derek Carr, we don't know if 601 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 1: he's a starter. Now here's the weird thing. I would 602 00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 1: be more fearful if Taysom Hill is the starter, because 603 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 1: I think he's dangerous. But I'm looking at the Falcons 604 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 1: here they're going back to Desmond and or. I don't 605 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 1: know that it totally matters. I mentioned the Rams earlier. 606 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,760 Speaker 1: We'll see about the Broncos two and a half. My gosh, 607 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 1: Broncos Eagles weirdly went from three and a half to three. 608 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,239 Speaker 1: I guess people are just saying, well, emotional win for 609 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,800 Speaker 1: the Eagles. They didn't look great. There's a little smoking mirror. 610 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 1: Sorry guys, that it's what they're saying on the internet, 611 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 1: smoking mirrors around the Eagles. DVOA doesn't have them as 612 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,279 Speaker 1: a top three or four team. They're not one of 613 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 1: the top teams in EPA. They're more like in the 614 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 1: four to seven range and a lot of advanced stats. 615 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: I don't know. I can't take Buffalo here, but but 616 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 1: I mean, if the Kansas City Chiefs don't have a 617 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,400 Speaker 1: bunch of drops and two red zone turnovers, you know 618 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:51,920 Speaker 1: what's this line? Is this two and a half? You know? So? Yeah, 619 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: and then Raiders plus nine will get strong consideration. For me, 620 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: just I can assume there'll be a letdown for the 621 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:02,759 Speaker 1: Chiefs after that loss. Short week gotta go well, not 622 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 1: across the country, because Kansas City's in Middle America. To 623 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,440 Speaker 1: the Raiders division is still sewn up. They'll be fighting 624 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: for the number one seed. But Mahomes is a big favorite, 625 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:17,440 Speaker 1: has not totally delivered. I know trends, it's it's just 626 00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:21,200 Speaker 1: part of the equation. I would look at the Raiders 627 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 1: there it still got work to do obviously, and then finally, 628 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 1: well I would look at Josh Obbs on Monday Night football. 629 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 1: But I you guys know, we had Adam Turnoff through 630 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: the pod earlier this season and his group Right Angle 631 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:39,600 Speaker 1: Sports gave out Chargers plus four for Sunday Night Football 632 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 1: against the Ravens. That number has come down now to 633 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 1: three and a half because they gave it out. I mean, 634 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 1: those guys can move markets. They're putting lots of money 635 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 1: in and they're very influential. So I took a nibble 636 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 1: on Chargers at three and a half. Obviously I didn't 637 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:57,840 Speaker 1: get their number of four. And you know four is 638 00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: a much more key number, twenty one, twenty twenty four 639 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:07,960 Speaker 1: fours probably after three and seven fours probably the next 640 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,000 Speaker 1: key number I would say. I would say two is 641 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,200 Speaker 1: becoming like a secondary number eight clearly with the two 642 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 1: point conversion six anything around the key numbers, So you know, 643 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,799 Speaker 1: you'd love to have four with Chargers. Maybe you pay 644 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 1: a little extra get the four. It's tough to make 645 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 1: an argument for the Chargers right now. They do not 646 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:31,240 Speaker 1: look good. We'll see what Brandon Staley can do against 647 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:36,399 Speaker 1: the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, but not feeling great about 648 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 1: that one either. It's a it's a good card. I 649 00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,320 Speaker 1: like it. I think I mentioned I think seven bets earlier, 650 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 1: six or seven, and there'll be more coming and I 651 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 1: hopefully can ride some more college basketball. Night's hit for Marquette, 652 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,720 Speaker 1: although Colorado did not quite get there at any rate. Everybody, 653 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 1: enjoy the Turkey, stay safe out there traveling, and we 654 00:36:54,920 --> 00:37:00,160 Speaker 1: will be back on Monday, ready to rock. Talk that