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Speaker 1: Has there ever been a worse time to buy a

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Speaker 1: house in America? Inventory is at record lows, competition has

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Speaker 1: been intense. Home purchases are the most expensive they've been

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Speaker 1: relative to renting in a couple of generations. In the

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Speaker 1: face of this mess, what's a potential home buyer to

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Speaker 1: do is a very very fine house. As it turns out,

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Speaker 1: there are some ways you can make the process of

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Speaker 1: buying a home better or at least less bad. I'm

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Speaker 1: Barry Ridhelts and on today's edition of At the Money,

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Speaker 1: we're going to discuss how to buy a home in

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Speaker 1: today's market. Let's bring in Jonathan Miller of real estate

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Speaker 1: appraisal and data firm Miller Samuel. For the past thirty

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Speaker 1: seven years, Jonathan Miller's monthly and quarterly housing sales, data

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Speaker 1: and rental reports are must read in the industry and

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Speaker 1: have made him the most quoted man in real estate.

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Miller, Welcome to At the Money. Let's just jump

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Speaker 1: in to the first question. How challenging is it to

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Speaker 1: buy a house today?

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Speaker 2: It's incredibly difficult home buyers. Not only prices haven't really

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Speaker 2: come down given the spike and mortgage rates, because inventory

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Speaker 2: is absent from the equation, buyers don't have a lot

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Speaker 2: of choices. So as a result, what we're seeing bidding

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Speaker 2: wars have been rising.

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Speaker 1: Even as rates have gone up.

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Speaker 2: Yes, because the number one thing to look at really

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Speaker 2: as a metric is supply inventory and inventory. The rates

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Speaker 2: began rising with the FED pivot at one of the

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Speaker 2: steepest climbs in four decades. That it's really challenging the consumer.

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Speaker 1: So before we get into even more specific days in details,

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Speaker 1: let's just talk a little bit about psychology. If you're

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Speaker 1: a buyer, how should you approach the idea of purchasing

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Speaker 1: a house from a psychological perspective? Where should your head

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Speaker 1: be at? Well?

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Speaker 2: I think the most important thing is to look at

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Speaker 2: this as a long term transaction. I always look at

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Speaker 2: housing as a long term asset. There have been various

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Speaker 2: cycles where people were thinking of it as a stock

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Speaker 2: and it's just not that liquid. So you know, you

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Speaker 2: buy it, you hold it. The average person, you know,

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Speaker 2: the numbers are kind of ranging. The average person stays

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Speaker 2: in a home seven to ten years on average, so

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Speaker 2: you're really looking at it from a much longer window.

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Speaker 2: And within that window, you know, markets trend up and down.

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Speaker 2: It's you know, there's various cycles, various reasons. I think

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Speaker 2: that's one of the most important things to look at

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Speaker 2: to treat the asset as it actually is.

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Speaker 1: So you and I have discussed what a buyer should

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Speaker 1: pay for a home, and you say something that's kind

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Speaker 1: of counterintuitive, and I'm guessing it's based on that, Hey,

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Speaker 1: we're going to be here for ten years or longer.

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Speaker 1: If you pay a couple of percent over what you

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Speaker 1: think is a reasonable price in the long run, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter, does it.

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Speaker 2: It really doesn't, because you have to remember what the

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Speaker 2: asset is. It is something that you're going to use

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Speaker 2: and live in and occupy every day as an owner

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Speaker 2: occupied house. In my circumstance a little over a year ago,

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Speaker 2: I actually bought a house for thirty six percent above

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Speaker 2: the list price, but when I do the details, I

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Speaker 2: probably only paid ten to fifteen percent above, and who cares.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to be there for a long time.

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Speaker 2: It's exactly what we wanted. I don't look at it

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Speaker 2: as that kind of investment that you would track closely.

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Speaker 2: And we beat thirty people in a bidding war.

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Speaker 1: That's unbelievable. So let's talk a little bit about bidding

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Speaker 1: war What sort of advice do you have if someone

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Speaker 1: finds a house they really love, you don't want to

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Speaker 1: pay double what it's worth. You'll never get your money

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Speaker 1: out of it, at least not in a reasonable time.

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Speaker 1: But what are the guidelines for when it's you against

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Speaker 1: a couple of dozen people and everybody wants this house

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Speaker 1: on this block in this neighborhood.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think human beings need reinforcement. So you probably

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Speaker 2: you're going to have to lose two or three bidding

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Speaker 2: warriors before you realize the condition of the market, and

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Speaker 2: the condition of the market is that there is a

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Speaker 2: chronic inventory shortage in nearly every housing market in America.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about that for a second. And again you

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Speaker 1: and I have talked about we've underbuilt single family homes

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Speaker 1: in the United States for fifteen years following the financial crisis.

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Speaker 1: Then you had this massive surge of second and third

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Speaker 1: home buyers during the lockdown of the pandemic, and now

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Speaker 1: we have this the number I'm familiar with. Sixty percent

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Speaker 1: of homeowners have a mortgage of four percent or less.

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Speaker 1: Eighty percent of homeowners with a mortgage have a mortgage

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Speaker 1: of five percent or less. That creates massive lock in.

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Speaker 1: No one wants to go right. How long can this

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Speaker 1: inventory short fall last?

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Speaker 2: Well, I look at there's two solutions for inventory, and

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Speaker 2: they're not very one's not realistic, and one isn't good.

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Speaker 2: The first idea is that rates fall back down. And

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Speaker 2: when you're talking to many homeowners in our appraisal business,

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Speaker 2: there is a broad expectation that rates, after going from

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Speaker 2: just below three to almost eight percent, that they're going

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Speaker 2: to settle back down. And I don't disagree with that,

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Speaker 2: except they're not going to settle back down to three

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Speaker 2: or four percent. Five. The economy lucky, If we're lucky,

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Speaker 2: it's probably high fives, low six is given that unemployment

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Speaker 2: is still very low. The economy is still vibrant. So

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Speaker 2: I didn't expect a massive rate cut. It would be

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Speaker 2: my just using logic. No, I have no inside understanding.

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Speaker 2: So when you have rates drop, each time the rates

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Speaker 2: sort of incrementally drop, homeowners become sellers and that adds

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Speaker 2: a little bit of inventory, but not enough, but it

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Speaker 2: every little bit helps. The other thing to look at

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Speaker 2: would be some adverse negative event that would cause the

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Speaker 2: FED to cut rates more sharply, and that would be

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Speaker 2: a recession. Of course, we've been talking about a recession

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Speaker 2: coming in six months for the last two years, so

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Speaker 2: you know that seems uncertain. The problem is then you

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Speaker 2: get job loss, right, and we have job loss, that's

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Speaker 2: less people that will buy homes.

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Speaker 1: Right, it makes a lot of sense. So we've been

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Speaker 1: talking about mortgages and mortgage rates. I've always been shocked

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Speaker 1: whenever I looked at your reports at the rise of

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Speaker 1: the cash purchase. This used to be a mostly high

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Speaker 1: end sort of thing, and now it seems to be

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Speaker 1: working its way down. The economic strata of homes tell

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Speaker 1: us about what's going on with all cash purchases.

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Speaker 2: So cash has been the method of purchase that's gotten

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Speaker 2: a lot more popular in the last couple of years.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to give the impression that hey, everybody's

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Speaker 2: just paying cash. No would need some mortgage. But what

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Speaker 2: the way to think of cash is the higher you

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Speaker 2: go in price, the higher the probability the purchase is

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Speaker 2: a cash transaction.

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Speaker 1: So ten million and up, those are all cash purchase.

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Speaker 2: Eighty to ninety percent cash.

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Speaker 1: What about five million and up?

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Speaker 2: Five million and up is about the same. It's when

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Speaker 2: you leave, Yeah, when the people that are at the

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Speaker 2: high end that are more susceptible to higher rates are

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Speaker 2: generally the two to five million range because those people

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Speaker 2: aren't paying cash, they're getting financing, and that market has

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Speaker 2: been much more challenged. The lower you go in price,

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Speaker 2: the more dependent you are on a mortgage. One quick

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Speaker 2: example is in Manhattan, we had a situation this year

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Speaker 2: where year every year sales fell about thirty percent, but

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Speaker 2: sales for cash buyers fell twenty percent and for finance

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Speaker 2: buyers fell forty or higher percent. So it has more

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Speaker 2: of an impact, but cash doesn't bypass the challenge of

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Speaker 2: high rates.

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Speaker 1: So I used to think of four or five million

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Speaker 1: dollars as like a big, spectacular house on the water

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Speaker 1: cash purchased by a very wealthy individual. You're implying that

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Speaker 1: two to five is now no longer the very rich.

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Speaker 1: That's the upper class, upper middle class. What is that

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Speaker 1: range of homes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, upper middle class or lower upper

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Speaker 2: class is really two to five, and they tend to

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Speaker 2: be dependent on financing. We have a market in the

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Speaker 2: New York region known as the Hamptons, and we call

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Speaker 2: it the Hampton's Middle Two to five million, five are

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Speaker 2: higher versus one million or two million or lower. The

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Speaker 2: Hampton's middle is much the most challenged part of the

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Speaker 2: market because those buyers are much more impacted by the

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Speaker 2: spike in rates over the last year and a half

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Speaker 2: than the five and over, which are more cash.

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Speaker 1: What about working with the real estate if you're a buyer,

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Speaker 1: how useful are real estate agents?

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Speaker 2: So I think one of the things they don't get

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Speaker 2: credit for, and I know this from personal experience quite often,

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Speaker 2: is they provide a buffer between the parties. Because many people,

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Speaker 2: when confronted with the opposition, there's no buffer, they're intimidated.

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Speaker 2: They may end up not doing well in the negotiation.

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Speaker 2: That's not everybody, but at least in my experience, that's

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Speaker 2: that's the service that is provided to have a third

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Speaker 2: party to insulate you from direct negotiation.

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Speaker 1: What about those negotiated offers? What we need to know

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Speaker 1: about the way to make an offer that's most likely

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Speaker 1: to resonate with the seller.

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Speaker 2: So, you know, I think a lot of people when

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Speaker 2: ask this question, they think it's all about the price. Hey,

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Speaker 2: you know, the higher the price you are, you know

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Speaker 2: you offer, But it really is the terms. So it's

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Speaker 2: how much finding it? What does your financial situation look like,

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Speaker 2: how likely are you to be able to close at

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Speaker 2: this price? You know, is there going to be a problem.

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Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that that. You know, price isn't important,

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Speaker 2: but it's probably parallel to the terms of the deal itself.

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Speaker 2: You know, if someone comes in and makes an astronomical offer,

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Speaker 2: you know, the sellers, you know, if that doesn't close,

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Speaker 2: the momentum of the house on the market and it's

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Speaker 2: all lost because the transaction starts over. So really your

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Speaker 2: focus is presenting yourself as someone that can afford it,

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Speaker 2: and that brings in whether you're proved for financing.

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Speaker 1: So do that in advance and come with a clean

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Speaker 1: offer with a lot of not a lot of contingencies.

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Speaker 2: Right in this market, you know, it's pretty common now

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Speaker 2: to have financing contingencies. A year and a half ago

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Speaker 2: that was non existent. It was you know, there was

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Speaker 2: no hair on the deal, so to speak. But you know,

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Speaker 2: less is more always when you're negotiating. I think in

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Speaker 2: this market, buyers think that they have more leverage over

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Speaker 2: the seller than they actually have. So for example, in

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Speaker 2: the market the suburbs that surround Manhattan, the share of

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Speaker 2: closings just in the third quarter that were bidding wars

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Speaker 2: was forty to fifty percent. Wow, so half the sales,

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Speaker 2: nearly half the sales are selling above the asking price.

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Speaker 2: So as a buyer, you don't have a lot of

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Speaker 2: strength over the seller at this current time because we're

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Speaker 2: in this incredible inventory situation where inventory is devoid of

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Speaker 2: being president on the market.

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Speaker 1: So we've been talking about existing homes. What about new construction,

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Speaker 1: either buying a plot of land and building your own

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Speaker 1: house or working with a spec builder who's in the

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Speaker 1: midst of constructing a house. How do we navigate those

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Speaker 1: circumstances as buyers.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting because existing inventory is so low that

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Speaker 2: many markets have a disproportionately high share of new construction,

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Speaker 2: even though it's still a small amount, but more typically

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Speaker 2: you expect ten to fifteen percent of most markets are

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Speaker 2: new construction. And one of the things that large national

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Speaker 2: builders have been doing is buying down interest rates, which

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Speaker 2: has been very well received.

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Speaker 1: To find that what do you mean buying down interest rates?

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Speaker 2: So let's just say that prevailing thirty year fixed is

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Speaker 2: seven and a half percent, they'll buy down the rate.

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Speaker 2: So what that means is that the buyer, when they

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Speaker 2: buy the house. The mortgage rate is five and a

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Speaker 2: half percent. That's not amazing, and that has been very successful.

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Speaker 2: But not all builders can afford to do that. They

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Speaker 2: need scale the financial wherewithal. But when you do that,

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Speaker 2: you're reducing the resistance to the purchase.

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Speaker 1: Huh, really really fascinating stuff. So to sum up, it's

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Speaker 1: still a seller's market. However, as a buyer, you have

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Speaker 1: a lot of things you can do to improve your

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Speaker 1: chance of successfully purchasing a house. Come in with all

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Speaker 1: your ducks lined up, make sure your cash and financing

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Speaker 1: is in place, Try not to hang too many contingencies

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Speaker 1: on your offer, work with a good agent who knows

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Speaker 1: the area, and don't be surprised if you're going to

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Speaker 1: pay a little over the asking price for the house

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Speaker 1: of your dreams. You can listen to At the Money

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Speaker 1: every week finding in our master's and business feed at

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts. Each week we'll be here to discuss the

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Speaker 1: issues that matter most to you as an infestor. I'm

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Speaker 1: Barry Ritolts. You've been listening to At the Money on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio