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Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting pros CFB Show. I

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Speaker 1: am Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter at Bogman Sports.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as always by Thor Knights from at

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Speaker 1: Thor Ku on the Twitter machine. We are in week

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Speaker 1: nine already. It is moving and as shaken right now.

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Speaker 1: So we got a lot of stuff to talking about.

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Speaker 1: We've got Thursday and Friday games for you. We got

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Speaker 1: a bunch of games with ninety five percent cash on

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Speaker 1: one side or on one side of the total, and

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Speaker 1: then the top five games of the week, plus whatever

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Speaker 1: else Thoor wants to throw out out to us. So

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Speaker 1: we got a lot to hit today. So we're gonna

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Speaker 1: dive right in here. Thor, I'm gonna lay out these

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Speaker 1: Thursday and Friday games. You tell me how you feel

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Speaker 1: about any of them. On Thursday, we've got Southern miss

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Speaker 1: minus one versus Louisiana.

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Speaker 2: Forty three is a total on that one.

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Speaker 1: We also have number twenty four NC State as a

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Speaker 1: thirteen and a half point home favorite against vo Tech.

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Speaker 1: Thirty nine and a half is a total on that one.

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Speaker 2: Very low.

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Speaker 1: Number fourteen Utah is a seven point home favorite against

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Speaker 1: Washington State fifty five is a total in that one,

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Speaker 1: and then Friday, I've got FIU plus six and a

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Speaker 1: half at home versus Leasing in a Tech fifty seven

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Speaker 1: is a total there, and BYU minus three at home

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Speaker 1: versus East Carolina, sixty two is the total. Do you

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Speaker 1: have a good lean on any of these weekend games

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Speaker 1: here or these weekday games here?

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Speaker 2: Excuse me?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a couple of leans and then I

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Speaker 3: got one official play A couple of my stronger leans

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Speaker 3: both occur in the same game of Louisiana against Southern Miss.

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Speaker 3: The market is clearly behind Southern missing this game, and

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Speaker 3: I agree with it. I think Southern Miss matches up

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Speaker 3: really well in this game. They number one shutdown opposing

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Speaker 3: running games really well, and they create a whole bunch

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Speaker 3: of havoc on defense as well. I think that matches

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Speaker 3: up really well against the Louisiana offense, where if you

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Speaker 3: can make the rag and Cajun's one handed on offense

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Speaker 3: this year, you can just nullify their entire offense. The

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Speaker 3: question will become in Southern miscore enough points with theirs

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Speaker 3: to win to win the game, because obviously the spread

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Speaker 3: Briley will not come into play in this one, but

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna trust them enough.

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Speaker 4: To at least as far as the lean goes.

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Speaker 3: But I mean, you know, I'm talking about offensive questions

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Speaker 3: on both sides of the ball. Defense is matching up well,

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Speaker 3: goes in line with my my next lean as well.

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Speaker 3: I lean under in this game. My my systems total

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Speaker 3: in this game is thirty eight and a half live

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Speaker 3: it's forty three.

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Speaker 4: I definitely like the.

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Speaker 3: Under because both the offenses matchup so well against the

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Speaker 3: opposing offense. So I'm gonna take this to be a

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Speaker 3: low scoring game where Southern Miss eats it out. But

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Speaker 3: my official play for the the pre Saturday games it's

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Speaker 3: on East Carolina getting three and a half.

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Speaker 4: I guess at BYU.

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Speaker 3: The market does not seem to have caught up to

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Speaker 3: how solid ECU is. They certainly have not caught up

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Speaker 3: to how bad by us, especially b i U's defense.

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Speaker 4: Last week, one of my one of my best.

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Speaker 3: Plays was taking EASCU plus five at home against UCF

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Speaker 3: and ee you bolt raise them.

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Speaker 4: They match up really well in this game or in

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Speaker 4: that game. I don't know that they.

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Speaker 3: Match up quite as well against BYU, but they match

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Speaker 3: up well enough, certainly with the value that we're getting

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Speaker 3: to trust them that the line right now is BYU

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Speaker 3: minus three and a half. Mind justed line in this

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Speaker 3: game is ECU minus four point three. ECU can both

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Speaker 3: run the ball and pass the ball. On defense, they

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Speaker 3: can be multiple and by you can't defend either of them,

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Speaker 3: whereas on on defense Eachus their run defense is really

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Speaker 3: good where you can get them potentially through the pass.

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Speaker 3: Jaron Hall is gonna have to throw a billion times

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Speaker 3: in this game because BYU ain't running the ball on ECU.

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Speaker 3: But again, getting those three and a half points with

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Speaker 3: a team that I objectively think is undervalued against the

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Speaker 3: team I objectively think is overvalued, there's great value on ECU,

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Speaker 3: and I'm taking ECU.

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Speaker 1: I like that one. The only thing that scares me

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Speaker 1: away is BYU being at home. Any concern there a

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Speaker 1: little bit?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like, you know, going into altitude in

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Speaker 3: a place where there should be a home field, certainly

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Speaker 3: it's a factor.

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Speaker 4: BYU.

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Speaker 3: You wonder how much their home crowd is going to

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Speaker 3: be jazzed up for this game when BYU season has

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Speaker 3: already lost, Right, that's another factor. But for sure ECU

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Speaker 3: going into altitude is something that you have to consider.

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Speaker 3: But ECU has depth and again on especially you know

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Speaker 3: on offense, their ability to be multiple. I just don't

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Speaker 3: see how BYU is going to keep ECU off of schedule.

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Speaker 4: Last week, BYU gave up. It wasn't just the best

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Speaker 4: game that.

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Speaker 3: Liberty third string quarterback Jonathan Bennett had ever played. It's

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Speaker 3: that there's no game even comparable close to it where

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Speaker 3: you could even compare it to Jonathan Bennett. I don't

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Speaker 3: believe he had ever thrown for more than two hundred

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Speaker 3: yards against an FBS opponent, even though he had started

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Speaker 3: against him before he barely had an Inki Lee pass.

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Speaker 3: He was like twenty three for twenty seven or like

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Speaker 3: something like that. BYU's defense is really really bad and

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Speaker 3: the efficiency problems are going to become more pronounced here

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Speaker 3: against ECU.

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Speaker 4: Again, a team not only that can be.

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Speaker 3: Multiple, but they can consistently cut you with paper cuts

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Speaker 3: if that's what you let them do, and that's what

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Speaker 3: BUI use defense facilitate.

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Speaker 4: So I like ECU in this game.

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Speaker 3: I won't consider an upset if and when they win,

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Speaker 3: but I like the only thing you're concerned about is

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Speaker 3: the potential letdown spot of them coming off the UCF game,

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Speaker 3: and then you have this weird game where it's like

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Speaker 3: it's not a conference game like scheduled in the middle

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Speaker 3: of it in altitude. But the qualitatively, again, just comparing

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Speaker 3: these two teams on paper, I feel like I have

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Speaker 3: enough of leeway there against what the perception of this

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Speaker 3: line is where I'm just gonna roll with it with ECU.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand that, and I love the point of look,

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Speaker 1: b why you's already dead? So college kids, you know,

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Speaker 1: they'll find something else to do on a Friday night

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Speaker 1: for sure if the team is already kind of out

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Speaker 1: of it.

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Speaker 2: So I really like that.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you these teams with the games that

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Speaker 1: are ninety five percent cash or more leaning on one side,

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Speaker 1: and I want to go through all of them here

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Speaker 1: thor because we have five spreads and six totals, so

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna list them off and you pick one

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Speaker 1: or two that you like here. So we'll start start

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Speaker 1: out with the spread. Miami minus two at Virginia is

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Speaker 1: a ninety six percent cash UAB minus five and a

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Speaker 1: half versus FAU Arizona State minus thirteen and a half

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Speaker 1: at home against Colorado North Texas plus ten at Western

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Speaker 1: Kentucky and USC laying fifteen and a half points on

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Speaker 1: the road against Arizona. All of those teams have ninety

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Speaker 1: five percent more or the cash on their side, only

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Speaker 1: one team taking points here. What stands out to you

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Speaker 1: out of that group, Well, we.

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Speaker 3: Talked about the Miami Virginia game in our in the

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Speaker 3: last hour that we do where it's live on Discord,

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Speaker 3: and that game I cannot make heads or tails. If

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Speaker 3: Miami was at full strength, I would be apt to

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Speaker 3: at least trust them as far as the ticket goes.

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Speaker 3: But they're decidedly not. Like they had like eight starters

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Speaker 3: out for their last game where they had the most

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Speaker 3: turnovers in any game since like the late nineties when

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Speaker 3: they played Dude eight turnovers in that game. And it

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Speaker 3: looks like Jake Garcia is going to be starting for

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Speaker 3: them at least at this point, that Tyler.

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Speaker 4: Van Dyke will be out.

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Speaker 3: And it's not just that, like they had three up

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Speaker 3: starting offensive linemen that were out for the last game,

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Speaker 3: and like I said, numerous other guys at other positions,

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Speaker 3: how many of those guys A you're gonna get back?

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Speaker 3: Is Garcia gonna be playing? If Garcia is were those

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Speaker 3: just numerous turnovers against Duke. Were they attributable to Oh,

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Speaker 3: I didn't think I was gonna be playing and now

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Speaker 3: I am, and YadA YadA, or is it like you're

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Speaker 3: just not good?

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Speaker 4: We'll love to see about that? Hard to trust me

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Speaker 4: either way.

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Speaker 3: But after I trusted Virginia last weekend and one again

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Speaker 3: short a Tech, it's hard for me to go to

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Speaker 3: that well again because of how limited that team, especially

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Speaker 3: with how bad their offensive line is. And that was

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Speaker 3: the particular thing that that turned me away from potentially

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Speaker 3: trying to fade Miami because of their health issues. Is

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Speaker 3: Virginia's worst thing is their offensive line. Miami's best thing

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Speaker 3: is their defensive front. So that is a huge mismatch,

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Speaker 3: regardless of Miami's other injury concerns. But again, the questions

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Speaker 3: on both sides of that thing makes it to stay

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Speaker 3: away from me. The UA UA B game against FAU.

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Speaker 3: UAB matches up really well against FAU, and I one

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Speaker 3: thousand percent would have had UAB as a play in

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Speaker 3: my column this week if I thought Hopkins was.

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Speaker 4: Playing the quarterback for UAB.

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Speaker 3: I it's not just that I can't be assured that

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Speaker 3: he is or is not it's looking like he's not.

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Speaker 4: Certainly.

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Speaker 3: Certainly, that's what the market is telling us with this

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Speaker 3: line and the way that opened and then the progression

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Speaker 3: of it since then, if we get Jacob Zeno, Zeno

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Speaker 3: could move around a little bit.

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Speaker 4: They can't throw yet he's super row in the pocket.

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Speaker 3: His placement in accuracy is bad. It's the reason that

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Speaker 3: they it's the reason they didn't not only cover but

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Speaker 3: also beat Western Kentucky. Like I think Hopkins's two throw

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Speaker 3: is like before he got knocked out, he had like

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Speaker 3: sixty three yards. Of the first two throws Zeno cubs

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Speaker 3: in it goes like three for nine for like twenty

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Speaker 3: yards in an interception like Western Kentucky was not concerned

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Speaker 3: about Zeno throwing the ball whatsoever, and uab's offense ground

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Speaker 3: to a halt after that, even though Dwayne McBride ran

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Speaker 3: for nearly two hundred yards. I don't have it right

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Speaker 3: in front of you, but he was in the one

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Speaker 3: nineties one way or the other, so you would be

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Speaker 3: his running game was still working.

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Speaker 4: It's just they couldn't throw.

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Speaker 3: And the concern is if Hopkins isn't playing in this game,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna get a redo of that where UOB just

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Speaker 3: isn't gonna be able to pass. But if you get

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Speaker 3: good news about Hopkins, absolutely take UAB because again, they

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Speaker 3: do match up well on paper. It's just are they

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Speaker 3: gonna be dragged down numerous points because you're going from

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Speaker 3: the one to the other the one play. I do

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Speaker 3: have of these games you mentioned, and it's not a

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Speaker 3: surprise to me.

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Speaker 4: The Sharks like this side. I love Arizona State as well.

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Speaker 2: Eight two man.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just Colorado they got their you know, dead

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Speaker 1: cap bounce win, whatever you want to call it. You

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Speaker 1: know they got that, but they're still awful. You know,

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Speaker 1: ASU has been going through their struggles too, but Colorado

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Speaker 1: is like bottom of the barrel bad right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think people are gonna like tend to

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Speaker 3: or you know, maybe there could be a thought of

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Speaker 3: like association between the two because Arizona State has had

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Speaker 3: some double digit, outright upset wins since they fired Herm,

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Speaker 3: and Colorado had that big one against cal where they

225
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Speaker 3: were a double digit favorite. But there's to me, there's

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Speaker 3: a really big difference between the two, which is Arizona

227
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Speaker 3: State has played consistently well since firing Herm. It's some

228
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Speaker 3: of the results didn't go in their way, but they

229
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Speaker 3: played well. Like the Stanford game, they Arizona State suddenly

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Speaker 3: all played Stanford absolutely should have won that game, but

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Speaker 3: wonky offensive play calling led to them losing, especially late,

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Speaker 3: led to them losing fifty to fourteen by one point.

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Speaker 3: Sean Aguayo, the the interim head coach for Arizona State,

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Speaker 3: has decided to remove the former offensive play caller from

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Speaker 3: his post after that game, and he's going to take over.

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Speaker 3: And he was in high school. You know, he was

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Speaker 3: a long time just uber successful high school coach in Arizona.

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Speaker 3: He did the play calling mostly there in high school.

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Speaker 3: So at least, you know, I mean, like against the

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Speaker 3: other no name that they had who was clearly not

241
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Speaker 3: calling plays very well, you would at least at least

242
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Speaker 3: can't be considered a downgrade. And perhaps you know it's

243
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Speaker 3: gonna be an upgrade. But the effort from the Arizona

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Speaker 3: State side has been there since they fired herm Morez

245
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Speaker 3: with here's the difference.

246
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Speaker 4: Colorado.

247
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Speaker 3: They had the one game where they upset count that

248
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Speaker 3: was great, good for you Colorado. Outside of that, Colorado

249
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Speaker 3: has not posted a postgame win expectancy above zero percent

250
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Speaker 3: in any of their other games. Oh man, they've just

251
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Speaker 3: been getting slaughtered gonna week out outside of this one aberration,

252
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Speaker 3: which by the way, it was not their last game.

253
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Speaker 3: They returned to being Colorado last time out Arizona. These

254
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Speaker 3: two teams are on sort of opposite trajectories. It also

255
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Speaker 3: seems like Aguio is like really using this as a

256
00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,320
Speaker 3: I hope I'm pronouncing his name right, really using this

257
00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,160
Speaker 3: as an audition, Like, I mean, you can tell like

258
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Speaker 3: that guy wants to be up in front of the media,

259
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Speaker 3: not in an ostentatious way, but of of like a

260
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Speaker 3: I belong as a head coach kind.

261
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Speaker 2: Of hey, yeah, get recruits to be confident, absolutely yeah.

262
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Speaker 4: Whereas on the Colorado side, it's, uh yeah, but you

263
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Speaker 4: have you have twelve guys walking the Green Mile right now,

264
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Speaker 4: and who don't seem super excited about it.

265
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Speaker 3: Neither does a team the Colorado is like the rest

266
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Speaker 3: of the season, it's it's a throwaway. So I'm I'm

267
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Speaker 3: definitely gonna lay the points of Arizona State there.

268
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Speaker 1: Colorado, by the way, one of three teams one in

269
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,320
Speaker 1: six against the spread. Can you name the other two?

270
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 1: That's my question? Thor one in six, bad, bad, teams

271
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 1: against the spread. I'll give you. I'll give you one

272
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Speaker 1: a hint.

273
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Speaker 4: Well, Virginia moved out of that by.

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Speaker 2: Beating Yeah, yeah, Virginia. I'll give you one hint. They're

275
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Speaker 2: both in the ACC.

276
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Speaker 4: You got it, well, Jordan Tech, Miam Miami, Miami is one.

277
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Speaker 1: Who's the other one? This is good? I like trying

278
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Speaker 1: to stump thor here. Uh CCC bad team?

279
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Speaker 4: Is it?

280
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,600
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, Boston College?

281
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,440
Speaker 4: Oh b C b C.

282
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Speaker 3: But BC against Yukon this week? I would love for

283
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Speaker 3: Jim Morden with that game. And by the way, it

284
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Speaker 3: seems like the market feels like you might because that

285
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,400
Speaker 3: line has been curiously plummeting down.

286
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Speaker 1: But all right, let's go to the totals, right, you've

287
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Speaker 1: done with the spreads.

288
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Speaker 2: Anything more on those spreads?

289
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:47,240
Speaker 4: Yeah.

290
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Speaker 3: As far as the North Texas WKU game, that's gonna

291
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 3: be a yellow game of a bunch of points on

292
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 3: the side.

293
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Speaker 4: It's hard for me to go either way on that one.

294
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Speaker 3: Sure, USC Arizona is to me, that line seems pretty fair.

295
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,480
Speaker 3: It's interesting to me that Arizona is the public team

296
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 3: and USC is the sharp side. You would not have

297
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,080
Speaker 3: you would not have anticipated that but us these lines

298
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 3: have been a bit depressed this year, but Arizona can't

299
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:12,880
Speaker 3: play offense.

300
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,680
Speaker 4: The total of that game has been just it's like

301
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:16,079
Speaker 4: one of.

302
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 1: Those stocks stocks.

303
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:19,440
Speaker 4: It just keeps going up and up and up.

304
00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 2: The stonks. Yeah yeah, but like both.

305
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:22,920
Speaker 4: The offensive profile really well.

306
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 3: Again to see opposing defense, you're gonna see a whole

307
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 3: bunch of super long touchdowns in that game. So but

308
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,960
Speaker 3: because of how high the total has gotten, I can't

309
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 3: touch that one.

310
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Speaker 4: So that one's a stay away from me. Obrall uh.

311
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Speaker 1: And then we have six games with the total that

312
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 1: have ninety five percent of cash or more on them,

313
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Speaker 1: and five of these six are unders Nebraska Illinois under

314
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,960
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half, Texas A and m all miss

315
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 1: under fifty four and a half. Six number sixteen Syracuse

316
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,920
Speaker 1: versus Notre Dame under forty eight, Boys State versus Colorado

317
00:14:55,960 --> 00:15:00,200
Speaker 1: State under forty three, Why versus Wyoming under fifty and

318
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Speaker 1: a half. And the one over that we have is

319
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Speaker 1: Navy versus Temple over because it's so low at forty

320
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Speaker 1: and a half. So do any of those stand out

321
00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:10,520
Speaker 1: to you in that grouping?

322
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Speaker 3: Thor I investigated the under of the Nebraska Illinois game

323
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:20,160
Speaker 3: extremely hard this week because both defenses again matchup really

324
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,960
Speaker 3: well against the opposing offenses. It's just the line of

325
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 3: that one from where the Circa opened, it plummeted at

326
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,720
Speaker 3: the point where it's like, it's hard for me to

327
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:33,000
Speaker 3: ascertain line value with where it is, even though gamescript

328
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,320
Speaker 3: wise and on field matchup, I lean the under, but

329
00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,600
Speaker 3: like the margins became too close with how because it

330
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,160
Speaker 3: dropped like five and a half six points from where

331
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Speaker 3: where it initially at Circa, you know, which we again

332
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,640
Speaker 3: we talked about in the previous hours, like they're the

333
00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 3: one off that puts it out and then every other

334
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,640
Speaker 3: book uses the data they get from where the sharps.

335
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 4: Are batting around there to set theirs.

336
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 3: But like that thing, that thing came heavily down to

337
00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,520
Speaker 3: the point where, like I felt like it was in uh,

338
00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 3: you know, the realm of realism, where it becomes harder

339
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 3: to feel like you're getting pregame value on it. So

340
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,320
Speaker 3: I didn't end up making one of that one of

341
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 3: my plays, although I do have a ticket on it

342
00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 3: on the side, but like where it is right now,

343
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 3: I just can't touch it. The Syracuse and Ole miss

344
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 3: Or Syracusan No Miss, the the ole.

345
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 4: Miss and text A and M game. The under of

346
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:28,360
Speaker 4: that one spoiler alert, that's an official play for me.

347
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 3: I love the under of that game. Like that's when

348
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,720
Speaker 3: I've been all over it since since the thing opened.

349
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 3: I was on the under of Old Miss LSU last

350
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 3: week and also on LSU on the side. But I'm

351
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,600
Speaker 3: returning to the well to go under on ole Miss,

352
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 3: which by definition is contrarying because Lane Kiffin his offense

353
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 3: are always top five in tempo. This year it's literally

354
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,560
Speaker 3: number one to this point, and you typically associated with

355
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 3: like all these points scored and whatnot.

356
00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,520
Speaker 1: Well, Jackson Darta hasn't been good though they've been running

357
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 1: the ball with all those plays.

358
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 3: That's it, like they're they're they still have the number

359
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 3: one temple, but they're Jackson Dart has thrown now five

360
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 3: interceptions in the four SEC games. Even though they haven't

361
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 3: played like any of the super Duper powers, He's still

362
00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:16,640
Speaker 3: not playing well, averaging his completion percentage is just over

363
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 3: fifty percent against the three comp against the three non

364
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 3: Vanderbilt opponents on the SEC schedule to this point, and

365
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,040
Speaker 3: you have all the interceptions as well, and like he

366
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 3: hasn't even gotten to two hundred and twenty five yards

367
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,439
Speaker 3: per game in those three games.

368
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 4: That that, you know, the non Vanderbilt.

369
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 3: Ones lane Kivin clearly does not trust his passing attack

370
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 3: even I mean nearly as much as he used to

371
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 3: trust Matt Corral. So there they have leaned so heavily

372
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,640
Speaker 3: into the running game. I look this up this week

373
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 3: where ole Miss is if you omit the option teams,

374
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,120
Speaker 3: ole Miss I believe is number five in the nation

375
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 3: in run rate for non option teams. So they're leaning

376
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 3: here so heavily to that, and they're going to do

377
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,240
Speaker 3: it even more in this game. Because A and M's

378
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,960
Speaker 3: defensive strength it's their pass defense. So so Olemiss is

379
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 3: certainly going to lean into the running game.

380
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:10,639
Speaker 4: A and M.

381
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,639
Speaker 3: They don't really have another way to lean outside of

382
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 3: into their running game. Their their quarterback. You know, are

383
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 3: we going to get the limited veteran Haynes King in

384
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 3: this game? Are we going to get the super raw

385
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 3: shouldn't be on the field yet Connor Wiegman, true freshman

386
00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 3: in this game. We don't know yet either way. There

387
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 3: they don't have talent at receiver and their quarterbacks are

388
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 3: not cut. That's just the way it is, and they're

389
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 3: one offensive playmaker at this point after a nin Smith

390
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,920
Speaker 3: got knocked out for the season, Devin Ocha and and

391
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 3: his biggest question with his NFL EVL is how many

392
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 3: touches he can handle? Because he's he's a small, explosive

393
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 3: running back. AM gives him as many as he can handle.

394
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 3: And I hope he was eating his weedies this week

395
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 3: because they are going to be giving him the ball

396
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 3: early offense. And as you know, until the gun sounds whatever,

397
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 3: both in the running game and in the passing game.

398
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,640
Speaker 3: Outside of that, A and M could do very very

399
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:04,120
Speaker 3: little on offense. So you're gonna see both teams lean

400
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 3: into that that running game, you're gonna see an ever

401
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 3: running clock.

402
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 4: Well, missus, yes, they run the number one temple in

403
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 4: college football.

404
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 3: That is true, Texas A and M is bottom five

405
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 3: in the nation, and they're adjusted tempo, so that sort

406
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 3: of nullifies that from from a tempo versts back then.

407
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 3: And there's reasons to believe that A and M is

408
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 3: going to be very competitive in this game and that

409
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 3: they could sort of assert their will as opposed to

410
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 3: vice versa.

411
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 4: On this one. So I'm gonna take the under on

412
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 4: that one for.

413
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 1: That's gonna be one of mine too. And and you know,

414
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 1: we disagreed. We talked about the and we'll get to

415
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 1: it a little bit later in the show. We disagree

416
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 1: on Tennessee Kentucky. But I always like it when we

417
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 1: reaffirm something, and I absolutely love this under too.

418
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:45,440
Speaker 2: Yeah.

419
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: No, you know, a rush first, good offense versus non

420
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 1: existent offense. Usually we'll get you towards the under there.

421
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 1: What else from these totals do you like?

422
00:19:55,000 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 3: For the uh, it's interesting that the mark it is

423
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 3: on the under a Boise State Colorado State, just because

424
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 3: to me, both of those offenses have ticked up since

425
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 3: well one was was a quarterback changed by their own

426
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 3: hand with Boise State getting in that Taylon Green kid

427
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 3: and kicking out Hanging Bachmeyer. And they've been more interesting

428
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 3: on offense since then, right because instead of having a

429
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 3: pocket passer who couldn't hit the broadside at the barn

430
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 3: the first couple of games, now you have a dual threat.

431
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 4: Who I mean, at the peak.

432
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,159
Speaker 3: Of Bachmeer's power is Taylon Green does not have his

433
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 3: accuracy in place, man, He certainly not at the peak

434
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 3: of his powers.

435
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 4: Earlier this season.

436
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 3: But Taylon Green he can run either way. So it's like,

437
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 3: you know, it's like the adage in baseball of like

438
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 3: you know, pitching travels or whatever. It is the running

439
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 3: output that you get out of your quarterback, it translates

440
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 3: every game, regardless of how well they're throwing.

441
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:51,239
Speaker 4: And so they do have that.

442
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 2: Now that's the worry, isn't it.

443
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 1: It's like just Boise State because Colorado State has been

444
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: so rough that they just overpower and get the majority

445
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 1: of this total themselves for sure, for sure.

446
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 3: But also Colorado State is not going to be shut

447
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 3: out in this game. I'll go on record, and today

448
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 3: the Colorado State has gotten way more healthy these past

449
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 3: you know, two three weeks, both on their offensive line

450
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 3: but also getting Clay Millon back, and that was really

451
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 3: big for them this past week, getting their starting quarterback

452
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 3: Millon back, because the replacement quarterbacks that we.

453
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 4: Had seen before were just about as rough as.

454
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 3: Any replacement quarterback we've seen this year, and we have

455
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 3: seen a whole lot. There has been a whole lot

456
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: of quarterback injuries and Colorado State's.

457
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: Worst offensive line play around the country. It feels like,

458
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know, I don't want to go

459
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 1: in a soapbox or anything, but it looks like we

460
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: got some battle line play here.

461
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that one, I I'm not sure that I

462
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 3: would touch the Syracuse Notre Dame one. I agree with

463
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,239
Speaker 3: where the money is going on that one. Even though

464
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 3: it's not an official play for me Notre Dame's offense,

465
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 3: we know it's thinks I would be going under on

466
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 3: all the Notre Dame player props except for one, which

467
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 3: is Mayor, and Mayor has been sort of money in

468
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 3: the bank as far as like his over receiving props anyway.

469
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 3: But Syracuse, I went back and I looked through the

470
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 3: box scores. They have not been good against opposing tight ends.

471
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 3: Where Syracuse SYRICU is good in their secondary like their

472
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 3: outside boundary corners, the tight ends have found a way.

473
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: To go out Shyracuse work. Yeah, exactly. And I'm nobody

474
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 4: has a matchup for Michael Mayer.

475
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna be like, oh, Syracuse doesn't like

476
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 3: as a way to sort of nullify the rest of

477
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 3: their places, because literally nobody does. But Syracuse isn't even

478
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 3: equipped to address what Michael Mayer does, So you would

479
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 3: expect Notre Dame to kind of pound him with targets

480
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 3: or whatever.

481
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 4: But like on the other side, Notre Dame should be able.

482
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: To suppress like the smoking mirror Syracuse passing offense enough

483
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 3: where it's all gonna hinge on the running game, and

484
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 3: of course that's gonna be the primary concern of the

485
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: Notre Dame defense. But that's where the positive games from

486
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,880
Speaker 3: Syracuse should come from. And it's gonna keep the clock

487
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 3: running and running and running. So I would expect the

488
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 3: chest matter goes under in that one. The other ones

489
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 3: we have bad offensive going against each other that you know,

490
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 3: like Hawaii Wyoming is just too bad, bad bad ones.

491
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 3: The I've seen some people go over on on note

492
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 3: on Navy and Temple. The only thing that concerns me

493
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: about that one is Temple, of course, is an abomination

494
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 3: of a of a team in a program. The one

495
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 3: thing that this team can do, they only got one

496
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 3: thing and it's stopping the run. So you're gonna go

497
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 3: over on one of their games. You know they can't

498
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 3: play offense. Uh. That one is where it sort of

499
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 3: loses me where I don't have a play on it

500
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 3: either way.

501
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: But I don't want to play because I would have

502
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 1: to watch Navy Temple like that is the main reason

503
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: why I don't want to play that game, right, Yeah.

504
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, well for sure. Yeah, I'm not sure that I'm

505
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 4: gonna watch it either.

506
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: But I mean, gambling can make any game fun. But

507
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, there's other games to gamble on.

508
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 3: There is one game where I you know, I didn't

509
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 3: have This wasn't a play for me, like in my column,

510
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 3: but like I did bet it, like personally trying to

511
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 3: trust the Temple run defense against a good rushing offense

512
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 3: against the UCF and that did not turn out very well.

513
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 3: So if I mean, if you're just sort of trusting

514
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 3: that rotely and sort of discounting the rest of the handicap,

515
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: at least that was one anecdotal time.

516
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 4: Where it decidedly did not work out.

517
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 3: So it made it a little bit more difficult for

518
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 3: me to sort of trust Temple and they're good run

519
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 3: defense and they're crappy everything else against run only teams. Otherwise,

520
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 3: you know, who knows. I may have been back in

521
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 3: Temple in this game, but that makes it tough.

522
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely.

523
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 1: Let's go to the top five games of the week

524
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 1: and the biggest one.

525
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 2: Everybody knows that it's an early game.

526
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 1: Number two Ohio State eighteen and a half point road

527
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 1: favorites at number thirteen. Penn State sixty one is the

528
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: total in this game, Thoor, how do you see it going.

529
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,880
Speaker 3: I'm definitely not laying those points with Ohio State being

530
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: over fourteen, I just can't do it. My just a

531
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: line on this game Ohio State minus thirteen point nine.

532
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 3: There's also the thing of in recent history, even though

533
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: Penn State has not been upsetting Ohio State, they've been

534
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 3: keeping these games close. I think in the last three

535
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 3: Ohio State's won all three, but the average margin of

536
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: victory has been eleven points. I sort of see something

537
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 3: similar here, and for me, it's just it's a total lean.

538
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 3: I'm not touching this game with a ten foot pall.

539
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 3: But if I was forced to, and you're gonna give

540
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 3: me more than two touchdowns with Penn State at home

541
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 3: against this Ohio State team, I would take that. Jackson

542
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,919
Speaker 3: Smith and Jig but has basically been a race from

543
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: the Ohio State offense.

544
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 4: You know, mostly.

545
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 3: He's he definitely not definitely, definitely not one hundred percent

546
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 3: and and and to Ohio State's credit, they have overcome that,

547
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: right like they have the number one EPA per pass

548
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 3: offense to the nation anyway, I believe they're also number

549
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 3: two EPA in run So. Ohio State's offense is you know,

550
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 3: manage for to remain awesome, awesome, awesome, even know they

551
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 3: have unexpectedly mostly been without the services up their projected.

552
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 4: Round one top ten, top fifteen.

553
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 3: However, you want to say receiver in Jacksmith and Jigbat,

554
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: mostly because Marvin Harrison is going to be the top

555
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 3: receiver taking in the next draft.

556
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 4: Kids in absolute stuck.

557
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 3: But as far as getting that many points at home

558
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 3: of Penn State, recent history, everything else like that, I

559
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 3: would lean the contrarian play with Penn State at home

560
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 3: and taking the points.

561
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: All right.

562
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 1: The next game up is the other big one, number

563
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: three Tennessee twelve and a half point home favorites. I

564
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 1: guess summer nineteen Kentucky sixty two and a half is

565
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: the total here. I think we at least are both

566
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 1: on the over in this game. I just like Tennessee,

567
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 1: you like Kentucky, So let's hear it.

568
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is where a disagreement comes. I'm taking the

569
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 3: points with Kentucky. I think that they're a live dog

570
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: in this game. And this is coming from someone who

571
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 3: has profited and trusted Tennessee more than most.

572
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 4: I think.

573
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 3: Yes, I called for their upside of Alabama a couple

574
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,479
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, and then they turn around and they

575
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 3: even covered against an fcs upon it last week, where.

576
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 4: Like that was sort of the classic letdown spot, et cetera.

577
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 3: I don't think Kentucky is a good matchup for Tennessee

578
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: for a couple of different reasons. First of all, qualitatively,

579
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 3: you look around at like people as different their systems,

580
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 3: you know, the spread that their system spits out, or

581
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 3: just the sort of ancillary stats.

582
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: Keep in mind that Kentucky has.

583
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 3: Not been on false strength on offense for literally any

584
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 3: game this season until now. This is the first game

585
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 3: all season where you're going to get one hundred percent

586
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 3: healthy and active.

587
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,719
Speaker 4: Will leave Us and Chris Rodriguez playing together.

588
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 3: Chris Rodriguez has suspended in September the first four games

589
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 3: of the season, and then right after that will leave

590
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: Us suffers his turf tow injury. So these guys have

591
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 3: just not been at one hundred percent together yet. Kentucky's

592
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: offensive stats are not as good as they will be

593
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 3: going forward period, end of story. When you baking the

594
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 3: work that the quarterback two is not good at all,

595
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 3: but where he had when he was playing when they

596
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 3: lost to South Carolina, et cetera. You have those two

597
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 3: guys in now and then the Kentucky defense, Like if

598
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 3: you look like the defense against the offense, the offense

599
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 3: against the defense, the Kentucky defense is nearly as good

600
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 3: as Tennessee's offense, right, Like, not to the degree perhaps

601
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 3: of nullifying it, but certainly to the degree of forcing

602
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 3: more punts out of Tennessee than other opponents have.

603
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 4: Tennessee.

604
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 3: We were talking about this last hour. Tennessee is all

605
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 3: the average one point four punts per game. If they don't,

606
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 3: if Tennessee does not punk this ball at least two

607
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: times on Saturday, I will be beyond floored. And then

608
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 3: so I mean, look, that's what you have to do,

609
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: right because if Tennessee is just huming humming.

610
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 2: Hummings, got to slow him down.

611
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're you're the road runner who's run over.

612
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: But the other thing is Tennessee's only singular weakness as

613
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 3: a team, it's their pass defense. They're awesome on offense.

614
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 3: Their run defense are really good, but they consistently get

615
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 3: ripped up in the passing game. Last three or I'm sorry,

616
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: last four opponents have all thrown for more than three

617
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: hundred yards against them, including an FCS team.

618
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 4: Two of those.

619
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 3: Opponents have gone over four hundred yards against Anthony Richardson

620
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 3: and Bryce Young, and they just leave openings back there.

621
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: Their secondary is not as good as the rest of

622
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 3: the team will leave us. This is a prime NFL

623
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 3: draft showcase opportunity. I expect them to take advantage of it.

624
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 3: I think Kentucky puts a scare into Tennessee. I'm not

625
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: going to go as far as to say the al

626
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 3: right upset, but I think they match up really well.

627
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: I think they're better than people think, and I think

628
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 3: this is a spot to potentially ambush Tennessee.

629
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 1: My quick points just to you know, give the other

630
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 1: side so you have both devils on your shoulder or

631
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: whatever in this game.

632
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 2: Is that I think?

633
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: And really I think what this boils down to is

634
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: who controls pace and Tennessee bad in time of possession.

635
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: They're scoring, They're the only team averaging over fifty points,

636
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: and that I believe there are one hundred and twenty

637
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: at the time of possession twenty six minutes per game.

638
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: Because they score so fast, they don't have to hold

639
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: onto the ball, which is something that you know, Kentucky

640
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 1: it works in there. You would think it works in

641
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: their favor because they have I think their top ten

642
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: in time of possession. But it you know, Tennessee doesn't

643
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: have to hold the ball very long to score, at

644
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: least against other teams. Kentucky might be the toughest defense

645
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: that they faced here. But I think that this game,

646
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: it all goes on who controls the script. You know,

647
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: if Tennessee is out there scoring, you're going to force

648
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: Kentucky into passes, which is why and I know your

649
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: stats are all adjusted for garbage time, but I think

650
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: all teams facing Tennessee have to go in with the

651
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: mindset of we're gonna have to put points up on

652
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: the board because no matter how good we played defensively.

653
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: You know, we just saw them put up fifty two

654
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: on Alabama or they put up forty on LSU. Like

655
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: this team is going to score. The only team in

656
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: the nation scoring fifty points. So Kentucky has given up

657
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,239
Speaker 1: twenty six sacks already this year, and I know if

658
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: there's been hit or miss with you know, if Levis

659
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 1: is out there, if the backup is out there, whatever, Right,

660
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: But you can't get in a position.

661
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 2: You can't if you're Kentucky.

662
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: You can't get down early with that offensive line that's

663
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: not great against the pass rush. Tennessee doesn't have a

664
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: great defense, but they'll get after you if you if

665
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: you let any defense will get after you if you

666
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: let them pin their ears back and rush after the

667
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: quarterback every single play. So I just it really depends

668
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: on who is in control of, uh, the pace of

669
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: the game. I think it's going to be Tennessee because

670
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: it has been against everyone they put up. Every single

671
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: team they face has given up the most points to

672
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: Tennessee out of any opponent they face. I think that

673
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: trend is going to continue. So that's why I'm on

674
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: the opposite side. But we've got three of the games.

675
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 3: Here and Bogway just one other thing a properly and

676
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: if we don't, Unfortunately, unlike NFL, we don't get our

677
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 3: prop line super early because they the books, Yeah, the

678
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: books know that we will heavily take advantage of them

679
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 3: if they do that.

680
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 4: But a couple of angles, so I don't know the number.

681
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 4: I'm just touching this shirt.

682
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 3: Theoretically, I would go the over on any of Levis's

683
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: passing props, and I would go the under on any

684
00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 3: of Rodriguez's rushing props, because again, Rodriguez is going into

685
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 3: the teeth of the strength of the Tennessee defense, whereas

686
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 3: Leavis gets to pass it.

687
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 4: Regardless of that.

688
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: Also, if it goes yeah, if Tennessee gets an early lead,

689
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: Kentucky's gonna pass more, leaving the run game you know,

690
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: to toil there.

691
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 3: But however the game script goes, I expect Leavis to

692
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: have a big game. I mean, whether they're losing from

693
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 3: behind or whether they're just playing well in winning.

694
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: He's a good quarterback.

695
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's through him.

696
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: Whereas again Rodriguez, I do think the Tennessee I'm not

697
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 3: gonna say bottle him up, but they can certainly address

698
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 3: him to the to the point where the odds would

699
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 3: say he's going to go under whatever the rushing toll

700
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 3: they put out is.

701
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 4: Yeah.

702
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: And Jalen Hyatt, once again, I mentioned this in the article,

703
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: so please read it. But Jalen Hyatt, who leads the

704
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: nation in receiving touchdowns of twelve going up against the

705
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: slot corner for Kentucky is a freshman safety that they've

706
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: been using there and on most snaps they don't. He's

707
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: not the only guy. They mix guys in and out,

708
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: and so something will change here. But in general, freshman

709
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: safety against Jalen Hyatt don't like that matchup either. So

710
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: maybe Hyatt on the the over for his receiving yards

711
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: possibility if it's not insane. When we get to that

712
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 1: prop bet. The other three games here, it's kind of

713
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: hard to pick. We have one other rank on rank

714
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: number twenty two Kansas State minus a point and a

715
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: half versus number nine Okay State fifty six and a

716
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: half is total there. We've got number seven TCU is

717
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: seven and a half point road favorites against West Virginia

718
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 1: sixty nine is the total there. Number fifteen Old Miss

719
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: minus two and a half at Texas A and M

720
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half is the total on that game.

721
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: So we have already kind of talked about Ole Miss

722
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 1: and A and M. Tell me about TCU in the

723
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: Kansas State Okay State game.

724
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, the TCU I like, personally, I lean to that

725
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 3: side and they're certainly going to be able to badly

726
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 3: exploit what is a really really bad West Virginia's secondary,

727
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 3: but also like on the other side of it, just

728
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 3: sort of checking yourself, this is a really bad situational

729
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 3: spot for TCU. You you're going into a spot where

730
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: they have the great home field advantage. You've seen West Virginia,

731
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 3: I mean not just this year, but going back in

732
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 3: the past play way above when when they're playing at

733
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 3: home and TCHE to this point objectively has benefited from

734
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 3: a series of fortunate events to get here.

735
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 4: The injuries on the other.

736
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 3: Side, uh to the other teams like they've gotten Really

737
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 3: you don't want to say lucky to discount it what

738
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 3: what TCU has done, because they've been awesome and.

739
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 2: It's it's got good bounces, they've.

740
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 3: Got yeah, and and and in this game, West Virginia

741
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,439
Speaker 3: appears to be close to one hundred percent. So even

742
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 3: though like my system says, that line is a little

743
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 3: bit low, and I would certainly agree with it. In

744
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 3: a vacuum, tough situational spot and the opponent, if they're

745
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 3: at full strength, you think they'd be able to perhaps

746
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 3: keep this one closer. It is going to be a

747
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 3: jacked up atmosphere in West Virginia that for for that game.

748
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 4: So that one I'm just going to stay away from

749
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:00,320
Speaker 4: for those reasons.

750
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 3: The Kansas State Oklahoma State game, it's one where I

751
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 3: had a couple of different lions, pretty heavy liens, and

752
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: I just couldn't get there because of the hell status questions,

753
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 3: especially on the Kansas State side. Spencer Sanders, he was

754
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 3: the one we were talking about all all his health

755
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 3: stuff last week. He ends up playing against Texas Oklahoma

756
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 3: State is able to come back and win that game

757
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 3: from behind.

758
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, perhaps I was.

759
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 3: Just gonna say it for you, bug man, benefiting from

760
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: some referee preferential treatment of the Woods side. I think

761
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 3: it was fourteen to nothing in terms of the penalties.

762
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I want to get you going on

763
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 3: on that one, but.

764
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I look at it. I'm not gonna I'm not

765
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 1: a look. You know, I have weird allegiances, right. My

766
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: dad's'll side of the families from Pittsburgh. I from Texas.

767
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:46,959
Speaker 1: So I watched the Steelers in the NFL, I watched

768
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 1: Texas in in the pros, and watching the Steelers at

769
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: Super Bowl forty. I'll never complain about the referees again, right, Like,

770
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 1: you know, we got good calls in that game. It

771
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 1: worked out, So I thought, just for my karma, I

772
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 1: can never complain about referees in a game. Again, Did

773
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: I see some stuff that was maybe a little questionable, Sure,

774
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 1: but you can't put yourself in a position to let

775
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 1: the referees be That's just what it boils down to.

776
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, But like I mean, whether that was like

777
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,479
Speaker 3: you don't see a discrepancy like that in most games,

778
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,240
Speaker 3: So whether it was just like that was a fluke

779
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 3: where we.

780
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: Stopt for Texas in Alabama.

781
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:30,280
Speaker 1: I mean Texas had like two or three and Alabama

782
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: had sixteen.

783
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 2: Alabama's dead last.

784
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, in college I think maybe not after last week,

785
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: but they're still really bad.

786
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 4: It's hard to overcome that, right.

787
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 2: Yeah.

788
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 3: And now Oklahoma State they get that upset, a big

789
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 3: time upset, come from behind, et cetera. Now you got

790
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 3: to turn around. This is not a great situational spot

791
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 3: for them. Yes, my system certainly prefers Kansas State, and

792
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 3: I would definitely prefer Kansas State if I knew the

793
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 3: hell statuses of all their different guys.

794
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 2: Martinez, but in the last game.

795
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Martinez, got knocked out. Then the backup Will Howard,

796
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 3: he eventually gets knocked out as well. He was able

797
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 3: to come back in, but like he's not one hundred percent.

798
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 3: I mean they even put him on the injury report. Dude,

799
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,399
Speaker 3: Vana got knocked out at one point in that game.

800
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: Numerous defenders, multiple guys in the secondary, their top linebacker,

801
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 3: go on and on and on. Kansas State has all

802
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: these different injuries. If Kansasitate was one hundred percent in

803
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 3: this spot going against one hundred percent of Oklahoma State,

804
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 3: I'm taking Kansas State, and not only that, I'm taking.

805
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 4: The under as well.

806
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 3: But because of all these different questions, I don't know

807
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: who's starting a quarterback for yeah, and some of these defenders,

808
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 3: I don't know who's going to be back or not.

809
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 3: I know what the injury report is, I know what

810
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 3: the coaches want us to believe, but I don't trust

811
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 3: any of those guys. So for this one, I just

812
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 3: had to stay away. Even though my leans again were

813
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 3: Kansas State and the under on this game, I had

814
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 3: to stay away because of the uncertain injury stuff as

815
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 3: far as the old Miss Texas A and M game.

816
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 3: Just personally, like from my observations, I would lean ole Miss,

817
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 3: but circumstantially plus my system heavily leans towards Texas A

818
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 3: and M. This is a really bad spot for all

819
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 3: mess a really really bad spot. You're you're you know,

820
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 3: like the last game, you get deflated for the first time.

821
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 3: They played this bad schedule to get there, and then

822
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 3: they go to lg U. They were doing okay in

823
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: the first half and then just got absolutely walloped in

824
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 3: the second half where both their hands got tied around

825
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 3: their back.

826
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 4: At the end of the game, Lane.

827
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 3: Kiffett, who has become famous this season for tacking on

828
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 3: garbage points at the end of games to to to

829
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 3: try to cover these spreads and go over and stuff

830
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 3: like that, he was essentially just conceding at the end

831
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 3: of that game because they've.

832
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 4: Gotten so bad for his side.

833
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 3: Now they turn around after their sort of dream of

834
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 3: going undefeated, and you know, like, I'm not gonna say

835
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 3: they're totally out of the playoff consideration, but obviously took

836
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 3: an enormous hit last week. Now you got to turn

837
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 3: around and go to A and M. A and M

838
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 3: has not played a Kyle Field in like a month.

839
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 3: They had I think it was it was either two

840
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 3: or three true road games, and then you had the

841
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 3: neutral against Arkansas. There was a bye week in between there.

842
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 3: I didn't count up the exact days. They haven't played

843
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 3: at home for a really really long time. They finally

844
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 3: get back there. They played better at home Apple Liifron

845
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 3: State game. Outside of that, you know, to toss out

846
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 3: one to sign, but like you know, historically they played

847
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 3: way better at home.

848
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 4: So a good situational spot for them. These two teams

849
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 4: playing diametrically opposed ways. Obviously, all missplays at the crazy

850
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 4: offensive tempo. Texas A and M.

851
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,879
Speaker 3: They want to grind the game out, and they sort

852
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 3: of every play they meander back to the hut. All

853
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 3: they sort of meander up to the line that they're

854
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 3: gonna wait until the play clock gets down under five.

855
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 3: But like they're, you know, again, diametrically at post teams,

856
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 3: Texas A and M is not concerned whatsoever about the

857
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 3: passing game of Mississippi.

858
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 4: They could not be less concerned about it.

859
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 3: Jackson Dartis stunk this year when he plays legitimate opponents

860
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 3: five interceptions his last four games against SEC opponents, none

861
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 3: of them truly elite teams. The four games before that

862
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 3: in the non conference when he was looking, okay.

863
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 4: They're al Missus don Conference was terrible. It was it

864
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 4: was a soft this can be for an SEC team.

865
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 3: When Dart has played up in competition, he has played

866
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 3: down and A and M secondary and their pass defense

867
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: in general is the strength of that defense. Ole miss

868
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 3: all season has leaned heavily into the run game. They

869
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 3: run on about sixty six percent of their standard downs

870
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 3: in this game, I think it's going to be over seventy.

871
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 3: Not only do you then take the ball out of

872
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: darts hands, which is going to be the prerogative Alaye Kiffin,

873
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 3: after watching these four games, you're also going leaning away

874
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 3: from the strength of the A and M defense and

875
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: then going into the weakness of it. The relative weakness

876
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 3: would be the run defense, whatever, but that's going.

877
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 4: To keep the clock rolling.

878
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 3: Similarly, on the other side, Texas A and M, their

879
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 3: passing game stinks. Their quarterbacks stink that they're way worse

880
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 3: than Dart. Either have the limited veteran Haines King or

881
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 3: you have the raw and shouldn't be playing right now.

882
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 3: Connor Wiegman, the true freshman, maybe he'll be good eventually,

883
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 3: we'll see. But then on the outside as far as receivers,

884
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 3: Cincinnaia Smith has gone down Texa. A and M has

885
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 3: zero playmakers at receiver, the entire thing outside boundary or

886
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 3: whether it's slot whatever. The only singular offensive talent that

887
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 3: they have left is Devin Aujane. Super explosive player, very fun,

888
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 3: very unique player. But he's what one hundred and eighty

889
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 3: pounds souking wet. He can't handle him.

890
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 2: That a guy that's going to carry the loan exactly.

891
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: He can't handle forty touches against all mess. He will

892
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 3: get punded with touches in this game, for sure. But

893
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 3: the whole point being A and M is going to

894
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 3: lean also into both the running game in the extremely

895
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 3: short passing game of the Dumb Bop to Auchane, which,

896
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 3: similarly to Ole missus lean and prerogative is going to

897
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 3: keep that clock running the entire game.

898
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 4: I lean the ender on this one for sure.

899
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 2: All Right, anything else?

900
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: Is there any other games that you have a good

901
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,760
Speaker 1: lean on, or anything that we haven't mentioned here today,

902
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: thor that you've got a pretty good feeling about that

903
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: we need to hear about.

904
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 3: I want to own to bang the drum for ioways

905
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 3: stay again, which is which is difficult for me as

906
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 3: an as an I would graduate, But I think they

907
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 3: match up really well against Oklahoma this week at home.

908
00:41:58,040 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 4: The line on this game is only Oklahoma.

909
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 3: My is one and a half, so they're you know,

910
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, basically a coin flip as far

911
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 3: as that goes. My line in this game is Iowa

912
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 3: State minus zero point seven points, which it's not an

913
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,280
Speaker 3: enormous discrepancy, but my system thinks the wrong team is favored.

914
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:14,919
Speaker 3: I certainly think the wrong team is favored after having

915
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 3: watched this Oklahoma team as many love.

916
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 4: As I have.

917
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Iowa State is going to be able to

918
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 3: shut down Eric Gray. Oklahoma's run game has been okay

919
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 3: this year, but that's the strength the Iowa State defense

920
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 3: in addition to taking away explosive plays. So Dylan Gabriel

921
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 3: is not going to be bailed out by you know,

922
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 3: broken coverage to sixty years downfield, if that's what it

923
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 3: gets to. Oklahoma is going to have to work the

924
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 3: ball down the field through the very short passing game.

925
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 3: They may be able to do that, but do they

926
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 3: have the discipline in terms of their play calling on

927
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 3: offense to be able to do that, and I know

928
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 3: that Iowa State is at least going to be able

929
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 3: to move the ball on Oklahoma's really crappy defense with

930
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 3: their own short passing game. So both these run defenses

931
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 3: I think matchup decently against the opposing running game. So

932
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: prop angles I would go under on both the running backs,

933
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 3: would go over on both the quarterbacks completion props whatever

934
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 3: they end up dropping at, because I think the short

935
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 3: intermediate passing games on both sides is going to be

936
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 3: accelerated and amplified in this game, and receptions for the

937
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 3: leading receivers, especially Xavi or Hutchinson, but the running back

938
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 3: of Rock for Iowa State as well, and the Oklahoma

939
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 3: kids are They're going to get the short receipts as well.

940
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 3: But you just go straight up proposition on this. I

941
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 3: got to take the home dog in Iowa State. Not

942
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 3: only do I think that they match up pretty well

943
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 3: in this game, A tough team going up against this

944
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: paper soft or this this cotton soft Oklahoma team. Yeah,

945
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 3: but you also have Matt Campbell historically, going back years

946
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 3: and years, has been money in the bank as an underdog,

947
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: even more money in the bank as a home underdog.

948
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: Awesome against the Big Twelve, and even more awesome when

949
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 3: he is an underdog against the Big twelve. Everything lines up.

950
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: Iowa state here the last time I said that, I

951
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 3: always state nearly upset Scott Bogmins Texas long Orange.

952
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 4: They're getting it done this time and beating Oklahoma.

953
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 2: I love it. I love it all right. That's going

954
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 2: to wrap it up for us.

955
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: Remember you can follow us on the Twitter at Bogman Sports,

956
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: for myself at thor ku for thor thor what is

957
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:05,479
Speaker 1: coming up for you this week?

958
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: What's on docket for the rest of the week.

959
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,760
Speaker 3: Please check out my Saturday Morning show with Mike Farrell,

960
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 3: which is like, we're gonna give you value. I absolutely

961
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: promise you that money back guarante, even though I don't

962
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 3: have to put any money out, but.

963
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 4: We absolutely will.

964
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 3: It starts at ten am Eastern nine am Central and

965
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 3: goes for an hour and a half up till thirty

966
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 3: minutes before the kickoff. We run through as many games

967
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,760
Speaker 3: as we possibly can with our handicapped sides totals player

968
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 3: props as well, and numerous times throughout the episode, we'll

969
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 3: take any question that we get from the audience. So

970
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 3: if you have any question, whatsoever about I bet you're

971
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 3: thinking about whether it's side total, whether it's a player prop.

972
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 3: It can be a random one so far off the

973
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 3: board that nobody would know how to respond to you.

974
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,479
Speaker 3: We will, I promise you come in and ask the question,

975
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 3: we will respond to it. Check that show out. It's

976
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 3: an hour and a half and I think we'll give

977
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 3: you value. Check that out, and then my Thursday column

978
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: coming out, my best bets, my ten best bets of

979
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 3: the Week.

980
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 4: It's actually a spoiler alert.

981
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 3: It's going to be eleven tomorrow because I could not

982
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,360
Speaker 3: cut it to ten, so I was like, let's just

983
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: put the baby we'll get we'll give out one free

984
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:03,240
Speaker 3: one or whatever.

985
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 4: Check that out on Betting Pros tomorrow.

986
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 2: That's excellent.

987
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: My article will be also coming out on Thursday. I

988
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: think actually it's been coming out Friday morning, so check

989
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: that out. I'm gonna be talking about Little Tennessee, maybe

990
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 1: some a s U on there as well.

991
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 4: Gonna be texting each other during that. Oh.

992
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: Absolutely, It's gonna be a fun game too, hopefully, you know,

993
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 1: hopefully the fans out for me, for you, hopefully fans

994
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 1: Tennessee bums.

995
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll even see if I show up next week.

996
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: If if they, yeah, whatever, you'll show up.

997
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: But that is gonna wrap it up for us. We

998
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: will see you guys next week. Good luck, take it easy.

999
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: Everybody see it