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Speaker 1: Two, three brights in the middle of the feeling is fine.

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Speaker 1: He loves football.

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Speaker 2: Down in the one yard line.

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Speaker 3: How about that?

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Speaker 2: That is the ultimate k.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 2: We are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Action

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Speaker 2: Network NFL podcast. It is the week ten Friday Show.

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Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 2: Joining me to break down all the games coming up

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Speaker 2: this weekend is Chris Raybon, a senior editor and analyst

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Speaker 2: of the Action Network and a co host. I'll take

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Speaker 2: that bets on ESPN Plus. You can follow him in

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Speaker 2: the Action Network app at Chris Raybon. Chris, you're looking

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Speaker 2: pretty sharp there. Did you just get a haircut? I

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Speaker 2: actually did.

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Speaker 4: I got one yesterday.

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Speaker 2: I believe it with Yeah, it's it's looking very smooth. Okay,

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Speaker 2: thank you, Enough enough being nice to you. Let's start

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Speaker 2: off by looking back at week nine. You were four

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Speaker 2: and two. I was three and three, which is pretty

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Speaker 2: much the best I can hope for at this point

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Speaker 2: for the season. You are twenty six, twenty five and two.

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Speaker 2: I am twenty three, twenty six and four. Any takeaways

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Speaker 2: for you from week nine?

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Speaker 5: Week nine?

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Speaker 4: Not too much. I think things are kind of starting

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Speaker 4: to go pretty standard. I mean I don't. I don't

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Speaker 4: recall anything where I was just like, oh my god,

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Speaker 4: Like I was on the complete wrong side of things.

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, when we bet the Rams and

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Speaker 4: the safe line, I thought the value was still good

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Speaker 4: being that the Rams were underdogs. They ended up being

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Speaker 4: favored and ended up losing the game, but it was

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Speaker 4: like a pick them, I would have still gone New Orleans.

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Speaker 4: So I wasn't like too upset about that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, basically, the only thing I'm taking away from week

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Speaker 2: nine is that I tend to be on the wrong

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Speaker 2: side of everything except for Bucks overs. I'm hard on

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Speaker 2: the right side of that. Basically for the rest of

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Speaker 2: the season, I'm just blindly hammering Bucks overs.

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Speaker 4: That's me.

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Speaker 2: That's where we are.

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Speaker 4: You've been You've been pretty You've been going hard on

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Speaker 4: like the overs in general, whether it's been the totals

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Speaker 4: or the team to lately.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, it sometimes works out, it sometimes doesn't. Where

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Speaker 2: I am really doing well is on the props, the

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Speaker 2: Fantasy props player props things like that. So and it's

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Speaker 2: all because of the Fantasy Labs Props tool. The NFL

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Speaker 2: version of the tool is powered by our industry leading

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Speaker 2: projections created by Sean Corner aka the Odds Maker. This season,

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Speaker 2: the NFL props with a bet quality of ten are one,

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Speaker 2: seventy four, eighty six, and six, good for a hit

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Speaker 2: rate of sixty five percent. To access the tool, subscribe

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Speaker 2: to Fantasy Labs, where you can get a five day

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Speaker 2: trial for just fifteen ninety five. Chris, earlier this week,

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Speaker 2: you did the show, the Monday Show with Ian hartits

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Speaker 2: I did the Wednesday show with Peter Jennings and Odds

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Speaker 2: Maker Scott Barrett was the guest for that show. It

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Speaker 2: was a good one. Everyone should give it a listen.

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Speaker 2: We've got the Friday show. If you are enjoyed the

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Speaker 2: Action Network NFL podcast, please rate, interview the show, subscribe, unsubscribe,

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Speaker 2: and resubscribe. Game this system. Do us a favor, Okay, Chris,

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Speaker 2: Let's get into our opening first and five segment. We're

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Speaker 2: going to break down the five games that right now

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Speaker 2: are getting the most action in the Action Network AP,

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Speaker 2: the games that have the five highest Ticke accounts, and

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Speaker 2: let's start with the highest total game on the slate,

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Speaker 2: the seven to one Saints at the five and three Bengals.

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Speaker 2: Saints favored by sixty fifty four point over under. The

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Speaker 2: spread is up from four and a half, the total

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Speaker 2: is down from fifty five and a half. The Saints

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Speaker 2: have won seven games in a row. They just beat

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Speaker 2: the previously undefeated Rams. Of course, they also just signed

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Speaker 2: Dez Bryant to round out the receiving group, and the

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Speaker 2: Bengals are coming off of the bye Chris, what are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts.

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Speaker 4: In this game? I'm looking first at, obviously the absence

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Speaker 4: of AJ Green, that's going to play a huge factor

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Speaker 4: in this game and embedting this game. He was responsible

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Speaker 4: for forty percent of the Bengals air yards. They ranked

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Speaker 4: number four in the league in explosive pass rate, you know,

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Speaker 4: entering this week. But without Green, now you're losing a

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Speaker 4: player who ranked in the top five in receptions of

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Speaker 4: twenty or more yards with twelve, and so I think

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Speaker 4: that's going to really change the complexion of this offense.

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Speaker 4: And then you couple that with the fact that New

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Speaker 4: Orleans is a top three run defense by DDA. They

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Speaker 4: allow the fewest yards per carrying the league at three

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Speaker 4: point four. This spells trouble for Cincinnati, even though they're

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Speaker 4: at home and coming off a bye. I don't think

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Speaker 4: they'll be nearly as explosive on offense. Their defense has

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Speaker 4: not been good for most of the year. On the

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Speaker 4: other side of the ball you're looking at with their defense,

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Speaker 4: they rank third worst in tackling grade from Pro Football Focus.

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Speaker 4: That is not an ideal situation when you're going up

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Speaker 4: against Alvin Kamara. So for this game, though i'm the line,

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Speaker 4: I don't necessarily like to mess with these lines that

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Speaker 4: are between a field goal and a touchdown, And unless

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Speaker 4: I have a really strong lean, I do like the

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Speaker 4: Saints in this game. But because of Cincinnati's explosive or

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Speaker 4: lack thereof of explosive pass plays and the fact that

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Speaker 4: New Orleans can shut down the run as well, I

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Speaker 4: think Cincinnati either doesn't score nearly as much as they

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Speaker 4: usually do, or if they are scoring, they're going to

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Speaker 4: take much longer than usual to do it. They're going

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Speaker 4: to have to kind of dink and dunk it. New

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Speaker 4: Orleans is actually running the mo more than they're passing

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Speaker 4: the ball. Since mark Ingram came back with the under,

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Speaker 4: I think this total is a little inflated after New

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Speaker 4: Orleans put up some big numbers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah you know, actually, and now I'm looking at the

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Speaker 2: Action Network app, and I see that this game has dropped.

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Speaker 2: The spread has dropped to five and a half, which

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Speaker 2: is a little more intriguing to me than the six.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna stick with the pick. I'm going New Orleans

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Speaker 2: over thirty on the team total. But I do actually

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Speaker 2: feel comfortable at this point where I would take that

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Speaker 2: at five and a half versus six. You know, I

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Speaker 2: could see being a six point game, which would give

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Speaker 2: me the victory over the Push. But looking at things

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Speaker 2: from the New Orleans side of the ball, they're going

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Speaker 2: against a defense that is significantly injured at the linebacker position.

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Speaker 2: Vontez Perfect is out, Nick Vigil is out. Well, I'm

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Speaker 2: saying that they are out, but they both missed games,

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Speaker 2: and then coming out of the by they didn't practice

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, which is pretty significant for guys not to

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Speaker 2: be able to practice on Wednesday coming out of the bye.

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Speaker 2: So I'm assuming that it is likely they're going to miss.

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Speaker 2: And that is a defense that already is weak against

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Speaker 2: the run. I believe they are twenty seventh in run DVOA,

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Speaker 2: and then on top of that, they are weak in

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Speaker 2: pass defense against running backs twenty eight and pass defense

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Speaker 2: against running backs in Dboa, So it's a it's a

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Speaker 2: very good situation lining up for the running backs for

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Speaker 2: the Saints and with the Bengals missing Aj Green. I

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Speaker 2: do have questions about the ability of the Bengals to

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Speaker 2: sustain drives, which I think would give extra opportunities to

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Speaker 2: the Saints. So I know, if I had to sort

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Speaker 2: of like triangulate this in a perfect way, I would say, like,

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Speaker 2: I think the Saints will go over their total. I

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Speaker 2: could see the Bengals not hitting their total, and I

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Speaker 2: could see the Saints winning by more than five and

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Speaker 2: a half or by more than six. That's the way

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Speaker 2: I'm leaning on this, but I will stick with what

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Speaker 2: I originally put in the outline the team total Saints

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Speaker 2: over thirty. Let's go to the next game here. I

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Speaker 2: think this is going to be an intriguing game. The

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Speaker 2: four and four Falcons at the two six and one Browns.

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Speaker 2: Falcons favored by five a fifty one point zero under.

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Speaker 2: The spread is up from three and a half. The

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Speaker 2: Falcons handily beat the Redskins last week. Is Julio Jones

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Speaker 2: finally scored a touchdown?

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Speaker 6: Attention, your attention, please, Julio Jones has caught an NFL

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Speaker 6: touchdown pass.

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Speaker 2: And the Browns, of course were destroyed by the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: Where are you leaning in this game?

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Speaker 4: Well, looking at this game, you know from the Cleveland

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Speaker 4: Browns perspective, they have to keep Duke Johnson involved. We

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Speaker 4: know the Falcons continuously, that's just part of their scheme.

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Speaker 4: They give up catches and catches on catches on catches

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Speaker 4: on catches to running backs. We leading again in that

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Speaker 4: category receptions to running backs this year would be the

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Speaker 4: fourth year in a row. So I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: the fact that Duke kind of re emerged is good

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Speaker 4: news for them. I also think that Cleveland's not as

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Speaker 4: good as their number two ranking in pass defense DVOA

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Speaker 4: might suggest, so I don't think that's a big deal.

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Speaker 4: I think the Falcons will keep on rolling in that

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Speaker 4: aspect as well, and I'm actually thinking that both teams

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Speaker 4: are able to score. The Falcons still bottom three in

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Speaker 4: DVOA on defense, they're twenty eighth against the pass, thirty

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Speaker 4: one against the run. I think with the new coaching

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Speaker 4: staff in place and you and Todd Haley out of there,

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Speaker 4: they're playing a little bit smarter ball on offense. So

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Speaker 4: I do have confidence that they can exploit this in

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Speaker 4: Atlanta defense, Baker Mayfild, They're going to put aim in

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Speaker 4: more spread concepts, more shorter stuff, perhaps limit some of

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Speaker 4: the sacks. He was taking a ton of sacks under

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Speaker 4: the U Haley regime, but cut him down a little

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Speaker 4: bit over these last couple of games. So for those reasons,

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Speaker 4: I like this over under where it's at at fifty one.

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Speaker 4: I think it can go over, whether it's because the

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Speaker 4: Falcons put up a big number or because both teams do.

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Speaker 4: If you look at all of the Cleveland games under

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Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield, you had eighty seven points, then twenty one

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Speaker 4: points in a twelve to nine game with the Ravens,

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Speaker 4: which you know that that happens, then fifty two, forty nine,

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Speaker 4: fifty one, fifty eight, So that's an average of fifty three,

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Speaker 4: even when you include that game against the Ravens. I

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Speaker 4: think there's a pretty good chance that this game it's

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Speaker 4: the over as well.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you on a lot of what you said,

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Speaker 2: all of the reasons to be optimistic about what's happening

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Speaker 2: for the Falcons offense. They're going against a defense that

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Speaker 2: I think you're right is overrated. And then now especially

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Speaker 2: he's injured.

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Speaker 1: E J.

200
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Speaker 2: Gaines Corner. I mean, he's not that good to begin with,

201
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Speaker 2: but he was starting for them and now he's on

202
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Speaker 2: injured reserve. Christian Kirksey linebackers on injured reserve. Jamie Collins

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Speaker 2: didn't practice on Wednesday. He set out with an ankle injury.

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Speaker 2: Denzel Ward is the big one. He set out Wednesday's

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Speaker 2: practice with a hip injury. It's really uncertain as to

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Speaker 2: what is going to happen with him. Joe Schobert should

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Speaker 2: be returning probably, but he still is uncertain. So there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty there going on with the defense

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Speaker 2: for the Browns. On the opposite side of that, you

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Speaker 2: also have Atlanta, which potentially will be getting better on defense.

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Speaker 2: Deon Jones is he set to return or like.

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Speaker 4: Nay, I think he's So what's going on with him

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Speaker 4: is he's practicing, but he's not on the active roster,

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Speaker 4: so he won't appear on the injury report, but he

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Speaker 4: can't return until the week app next week is mind,

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Speaker 4: You're right.

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Speaker 2: You're right, Okay, So never mind. On the the optimism

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Speaker 2: I have for the Falcons, Yeah, but I'm there with

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Speaker 2: the Falcons going over their team total. I think I

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Speaker 2: would be probably, of course, like twenty seven and a

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Speaker 2: half is where it is right now, Like I'd be

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Speaker 2: willing to probably take that to thirty. I just don't

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Speaker 2: have much respect for the Browns. Let's go to this

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Speaker 2: next game here, the four and four Cardinals at the

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Speaker 2: two six and one Chiefs. Oh Man, The Chiefs favored

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Speaker 2: by sixteen and a half a forty nine point five

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Speaker 2: over under. The spread is down from seventeen and a half.

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Speaker 2: The total is down for fifty. The Chiefs, you know,

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Speaker 2: they're great. They have the highest scoring offensive league and

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals have one of the worst. Where are you

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Speaker 2: going here?

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Speaker 4: So this one was interesting, just more from what I

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Speaker 4: think a betting market perspective in terms of, we have

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Speaker 4: this game with a huge spread, the total considering the

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Speaker 4: spread is actually not outrageous, especially for a Chiefs game.

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Speaker 4: So I went and kind of looked it up of like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: given all the different potential outcomes, what's kind of the

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Speaker 4: sharpest way to lean in this game? So first I

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Speaker 4: looked at all of the games where a team wins

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Speaker 4: by seventeen or more points, and I looked at it

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Speaker 4: starting in twenty fifteen, So there was two hundred and

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Speaker 4: eleven times where a team won by at least seventeen points,

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Speaker 4: they scored thirty four points or more and fifty six

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Speaker 4: percent of those games. Now, I also looked at, okay,

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Speaker 4: how many times does you know when a team wins

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Speaker 4: by seventeen or more does both teams total combined for

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Speaker 4: over fifty points some more, which would it would need

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Speaker 4: to do to hit the total? And it turns out

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Speaker 4: that it only happens thirty six percent at the time.

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Speaker 4: So it's a lot more likely that Kansas City is

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Speaker 4: going If if you're on the side of Kansas City

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Speaker 4: and you think that they're going to win and cover

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Speaker 4: the spread, the bet here would be to take their

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Speaker 4: team total much better, oh much better. But see, I

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Speaker 4: actually backed my I did extensive research before I cop out.

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Speaker 2: We'll see, take these teams first, all of that is factored.

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Speaker 2: But I'm doing this, you know, I'm sort of like

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Speaker 2: doing like the mental calculus of like, well, I trust

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Speaker 2: that this team will go over, but I don't trust

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Speaker 2: what's happening defensively for them or what's happening on the

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Speaker 2: other side of the ball.

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Speaker 4: Actually, yeah, actually, but yeah, no, but seriously, yeah, so

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Speaker 4: much better bet if you're on the casey side, just

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Speaker 4: take them with the team total here and then on

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Speaker 4: the other side of the of it, just looking at

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Speaker 4: it from the perspective of, Okay, what happens when teams

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Speaker 4: are favored by this many points? So home favorites of

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Speaker 4: sixteen or more, looked it up in bet labs, they're

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Speaker 4: only thirteen, seventeen and two since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 4: so they have not been profitable to wager on at

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Speaker 4: that spot if you extend it to just teams that

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Speaker 4: are favored by more than a touchdown, so fourteen and

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Speaker 4: a half or more twenty four, twenty eight and two

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Speaker 4: since two thousand and three, So that's kind of something

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Speaker 4: to think about on the other side. And then just

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Speaker 4: in general, when a team is favored this big, when

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Speaker 4: a home team is favored by by sixteen or more,

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Speaker 4: the over is seventeen and fourteen, So I think definitely

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Speaker 4: more trends kind of lean towards either taking the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: team total or just taking the over in this game

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Speaker 4: than it does to taking the Chiefs at this big

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Speaker 4: of a number. So I am gonna stick with my

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Speaker 4: stick with your I should say over thirty three and

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Speaker 4: a half. I don't love it, but you know, that's

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Speaker 4: kind of where the trends are. And I can't really

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Speaker 4: see any reason for Kansas City, you know, I know,

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Speaker 4: Sammy Watkins is a little iffy, so I mean that's something.

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Speaker 4: Chris Connwey just is invisible most of the time when

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Speaker 4: he's out there. But I mean we still have Tyreek Kill,

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Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey, and Kareim Hunt. I don't think losing Watkins

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Speaker 4: hurts nearly as much as it would for maybe another team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean sixteen and a half, seventeen seventeen and

293
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Speaker 2: a half wherever this line ends up settling, like that

294
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Speaker 2: is just a really big number, and I would prefer

295
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Speaker 2: to stay away from it. At the same time, I

296
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Speaker 2: don't really want to mess with the game total, because

297
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Speaker 2: I mean, Kansas City, like that is a significant home

298
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Speaker 2: field advantage. They really limit opponents at Kansas City, and

299
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Speaker 2: like they've done it for years, They've done it in

300
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Speaker 2: the Read era, and it's something that's like extended like

301
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Speaker 2: past the Read era. It's a real thing. Like Kansas

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Speaker 2: City unders like that's normally where you want to go.

303
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Speaker 2: That said, like, I don't want to bet the under

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Speaker 2: in any game where Patrick Mahomes you're back and reads

305
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Speaker 2: calling a plays for him. So that pretty clearly leads

306
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Speaker 2: me to taking a big surprise the over on on

307
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Speaker 2: Kansas City. With the team total there right now thirty

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Speaker 2: three and a half the next game, I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: hard to be too excited about any game that has

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Speaker 2: the five and four Dolphins. They are playing at the

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Speaker 2: three four and one Packers, Packers favored by ten a

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Speaker 2: forty seven and a half point over under. The spread

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Speaker 2: is up from nine and a half. The Dolphins have

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Speaker 2: Brock Osweiler quarterback and the Packers don't. What are your

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Speaker 2: thoughts here?

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Speaker 4: So this is another interesting one just because, first of all,

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Speaker 4: I guess we should we should mention that, you know,

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Speaker 4: the books had a really bad week last week. Favorites

319
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Speaker 4: kind of dominated, and so I think that might be

320
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Speaker 4: part of the reason you're seeing all these larger lines

321
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Speaker 4: in favor of the you know, larger spreads this week,

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Speaker 4: and a lot of them increasing. So that's something to

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Speaker 4: keep in mind. That is usually a situation where you

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Speaker 4: want to try to find some value on the underdogs

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Speaker 4: in these spots. Now I'm trying to find some value

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Speaker 4: on these Dolphins. I mean, you know, ten point underdogs

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Speaker 4: on the road of ten or more points have actually

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Speaker 4: been profitable slightly to wage roun since two thousand and three.

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Speaker 4: They are two fifteen, one, ninety five and eleven. But

330
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Speaker 4: you know, it's not a super strong trend. You know,

331
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Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers at the same time as a ten point

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Speaker 4: home favorite eleven and nine in his careers, that's a

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Speaker 4: fifty five percent hit rate. If you extend the sample

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Speaker 4: a little bit more to look at games when Rogers

335
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Speaker 4: is favored by more than a touchdown at home, so

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Speaker 4: seven point five or more, he's twenty one, fourteen and two,

337
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Speaker 4: So that's a sixty six percent cover rate. I lean

338
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Speaker 4: towards the Packers kind of dominating in this spot, and

339
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Speaker 4: a big reason for me is just I think that

340
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Speaker 4: they'll have an advantage in terms of being able to

341
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Speaker 4: get some pressure on as Wiler. If you look at

342
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Speaker 4: Pro Football focuses O line D line matchups, and the

343
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Speaker 4: pressure rate advantage for green Bay forty three percent their

344
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Speaker 4: D line versus Miami's OH line. That is the largest

345
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Speaker 4: advantage for any team playing this week. So I think

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Speaker 4: it's a smash spot for green Bay, even though green

347
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Speaker 4: Bay really hasn't blown anyone out this year except Buffalo.

348
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. There a couple of things to note.

349
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Speaker 2: There are some trends with Rogers that have extended across

350
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Speaker 2: his career. He's obviously, I mean, and like most quarterbacks here,

351
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Speaker 2: he's better at home, he's better as a favorite, and

352
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Speaker 2: he's better outside of division you know, playing against an

353
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Speaker 2: opponent that doesn't get to get used to him playing

354
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Speaker 2: against him two times a year, and he is on

355
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Speaker 2: the right side of all of those splits in this

356
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Speaker 2: matchup and with Rogers in that situation non divisional home favorites.

357
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Speaker 2: The Packers are twenty five and seventeen in terms of

358
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Speaker 2: hitting the over. I don't really feel all that confident

359
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,160
Speaker 2: about the spread here. Like, if I had to choose

360
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 2: the side, I would go with the Packers. But I mean,

361
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Speaker 2: ten is a lot. I could easily see how there's

362
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Speaker 2: you know, like a defensive touchdown, or like Jaqem Grant

363
00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 2: gets a special teams touchdown, or you know what I mean,

364
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Speaker 2: like something happens that is sort of like outside of

365
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Speaker 2: the normal you know, realm of play that we normally

366
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 2: see to give the back door cover here, So like

367
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Speaker 2: I don't really feel good about the spread, and honestly,

368
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 2: and I don't really even feel all that great about

369
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,159
Speaker 2: the total either. But if I had to choose something,

370
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Speaker 2: I would take over forty seven and a half or

371
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 2: forty eight kind of wherever this line settles, that's the

372
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Speaker 2: way that I would go. But I don't really have

373
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Speaker 2: This is like one of the games where I really

374
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Speaker 2: don't have a strong lean on it either way. I

375
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Speaker 2: don't know about you.

376
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Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I kind of agree with you. I was

377
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Speaker 4: going back and forth on this one, kind of the

378
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,040
Speaker 4: same feelings you have about the spread I have about

379
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,399
Speaker 4: the total. I mean I was looking at, you know,

380
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,880
Speaker 4: a kind of a similar game to this Patriots Dolphins,

381
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Speaker 4: and it had actually ended up thirty eight sevens and

382
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,120
Speaker 4: so that's only forty five points. I could see the Dolphins,

383
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 4: you know, they just came off a game where they

384
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Speaker 4: gave Frank Gore twenty carries, which I believe was a

385
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Speaker 4: season high. You know, I could see them trying to

386
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 4: run the ball just to.

387
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,320
Speaker 2: That might be a decade high for Frank Gore.

388
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,679
Speaker 4: I mean, he's hanging in there, man. But yeah, so,

389
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,879
Speaker 4: you know, I could see the Dolphins kind of trying

390
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 4: to a similar tactic just to ensure that Rogers isn't

391
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 4: on the fields all day against them. It's just one

392
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Speaker 4: of these games where I could see the package winning

393
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Speaker 4: also within thirty four nothing or something like that, and

394
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 4: that to me just I just feel like it's a

395
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 4: little more likely than I mean, it's just kind of

396
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Speaker 4: just a weird total too, like forty seven and a half.

397
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 4: Like I could go either way, but I feel like

398
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 4: I don't have a strong win on this game either.

399
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 4: So let's let's see, let's just go to the next one.

400
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 2: Well, while I am on the over, there forty seven

401
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets, seventy nine percent of the money

402
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 2: is on the under. According to the Action Network app

403
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 2: there okay. The last game to cover in our first

404
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 2: and five segments the three and five Lions at the

405
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 2: five and three Bears, Bears favored by six and a

406
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 2: half a forty four point five over under. The total

407
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,879
Speaker 2: is down from forty six and a half. It's the

408
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 2: first of two games that these teams will play against

409
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,919
Speaker 2: each other over the next fourteen days. The Lions have

410
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:51,679
Speaker 2: lost two games in a row and the Bears have

411
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,200
Speaker 2: won two in a row. What are you thinking, so

412
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 2: forty four and a half.

413
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,399
Speaker 4: I love this number. I'm going under here. You know,

414
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 4: if it gets to forty four, that's a little more

415
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 4: like you know, could either way, but that extra little

416
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 4: half point, especially in a game that it is projected

417
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 4: to be. I believe above ten mile per hour wins.

418
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 4: I think last week I was on the under in

419
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 4: the Lions game as well. I just feel like at

420
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 4: this point this team is it seems like it's an overteam.

421
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 4: You know, they their defense doesn't look good on paper.

422
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 4: They have Matthew Stafford, they have you know, Jones and

423
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 4: Galladay and carry on and all those guys, but Matthew

424
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Speaker 4: Stafford really hasn't had a high ceiling as statistically this

425
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Speaker 4: year as a quarterback. You know, Golden Tate being out

426
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 4: was twenty seven percent of his targets. He's gone. We

427
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Speaker 4: saw him take the ten sacks last week against Minnesota.

428
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 4: Going on the road here against the Bears defense that

429
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 4: looks like they're gonna get back Kheil Mack and it's

430
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Speaker 4: just a game that I don't think there's gonna be

431
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 4: a ton of points. The Bears ended up going over

432
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Speaker 4: there total last week, I believe was it last week. Yeah,

433
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 4: forty one to nine. Was that last week or two,

434
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Speaker 4: I forget when it was, but that was kind of

435
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 4: more so them exploding. I don't think that they'll explode

436
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 4: in this game. Detroit's defense is getting better, they have onsa,

437
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 4: they have snacks Harrison. Now, I just see another one

438
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,640
Speaker 4: of these kind of twenty four to seven ish type

439
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 4: of situations transpiring. I see it playing out really similarly

440
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 4: to what happened the week before against Minnesota without probably

441
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,400
Speaker 4: without the ten stack, because I'm sure they'll do things

442
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 4: differently to just get the ball out of Stafford's hands

443
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,880
Speaker 4: more quickly. But I don't think that necessarily means more

444
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 4: points because you're still going against the defense that's top

445
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 4: five in DVOA in the Chicago Bears.

446
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate this game just from like an analytical perspectives,

447
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 2: this is one that's kind of hard for me to

448
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 2: look at. I'm going with Detroit plus six and a half,

449
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 2: but I don't really feel strong about it. But it

450
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 2: is correlated with everything that you talked about in why

451
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 2: you would take this game for the under. If this

452
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: game goes to the under, then just fewer points and

453
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 2: easier for the underdog to cover. That's basically why I'm

454
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 2: doing it. Here, two teams that are in division that

455
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,360
Speaker 2: know each other, well, I'm going to take the one

456
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: that's getting the more points. There. Like I think, like,

457
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 2: if you had to make the line on this, where

458
00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 2: do you think it should be the spread?

459
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 4: I would probably put it more in like the Chicago

460
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 4: five and a half to six range. I think that's

461
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,199
Speaker 4: I think that's a little more reasonable. I think just

462
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 4: because of you know, we always talk about the recency bias,

463
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 4: and when you have one team that's coming off a

464
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 4: big or two blowouts in a row, and then you

465
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 4: have another team that's coming off two disappointing wasses in

466
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,640
Speaker 4: a row where they got blown out by double digits

467
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 4: each time, I think you're going to kind of get

468
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 4: an extra point point and a half. So I think

469
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 4: the sharp side from kind of the market based, you know, contrarian,

470
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 4: you know, bet against the public kind of profit when

471
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 4: the lines are inflated play here would be the Detroit Lion.

472
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,959
Speaker 4: So if I'm leaning on a side, I'm going Detroit.

473
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 4: But like, I don't have a lot of confidence even

474
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 4: given those factors that, right, this is necessarily going to

475
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 4: be that game where you know, Detroit, like it's not

476
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 4: the perfect time for it, like not the Bears defense

477
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 4: is not necessarily like the defense that you can kind

478
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 4: of get right against. And so I just feel a

479
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 4: little more confident that with Detroit getting a little better,

480
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,199
Speaker 4: I think there's just a little more value to me

481
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 4: anyway on the on the total, just because I think

482
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 4: people are still thinking of Detroit is like this horrible,

483
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 4: horrible defense. But I mean they held Minnesota relatively and

484
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 4: check and just ended up playing a low scoring game.

485
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 4: And they're not a very fast paced team either. So

486
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 4: I just think a few more things kind of got

487
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 4: me trend intoward the underwinn.

488
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hear you there, like think, and so I

489
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: think you're right about where you would set the line.

490
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 2: I don't think Chicago should be favored by like just three.

491
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 2: I think they should be favored by more than that.

492
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: But more than six feels like maybe a little bit

493
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 2: too much. And I can see how this game could

494
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 2: go under. Uh, you know, two divisional opponents that know

495
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 2: each other well, you know, but I could also see

496
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 2: how this game goes over, you know, with Matthew Stafford

497
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: as like the Gunslinger and you know Naggy there's the

498
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 2: head coach, and maybe there's like a wild Mitch Trubisky game.

499
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 2: It's like one of those games where he has three

500
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: hundred yards and four touchdowns. Like I could see both

501
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 2: of those things happening. So I just that's why I'm

502
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 2: tending to go a little more to Detroit's.

503
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 4: I mean, Vinsky has If Mitch tru Brisky has three

504
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 4: hundred and ten yards and four touchdowns and just takes Chicago,

505
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 4: I mean, I definitely happened. I feel like Detroit doesn't

506
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 4: stand a chance, like I guess. I mean, mister Brisky's

507
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 4: been the far better fantasy quarterback than Matthew Stafford this year.

508
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 4: It's just for whatever reason, this Lion's offense hasn't quite

509
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 4: performed I think up to what you know, what it's

510
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 4: capable of or what we thought it could and getting

511
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 4: over of Golden Tate just does not help that. It's

512
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 4: like Stafford has had two touchdowns in every game. The

513
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 4: yard just hasn't really been there. At least two touchdowns

514
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 4: and six in all but two of his games, but

515
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 4: the yard hasn't, you know, been there consistently. You know,

516
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 4: he's had a three hundred yard a couple of three

517
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 4: hundred yard games and then it's been you know, like

518
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 4: one eight three, one ninety nine. So I mean it's

519
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 4: hard to I shouldn't say he's like underperforming terribly, but

520
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 4: he's sitting there kind of as like that fringe top

521
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,439
Speaker 4: twenty fantasy quarterback. But he's twentieth. So that's you know,

522
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 4: that's way under expectation considering it's been such an explosive

523
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 4: passing year that you know, even though his numbers you know,

524
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 4: don't sound bad on paper. I mean, you know, Joe

525
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 4: Flacco and case Keenum are also even Russell Will and

526
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 4: Wake Bortles, you know, all outscoring Matthew Stafford. It's an

527
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 4: interesting situation there, but yeah, I'm kind of I'm still

528
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 4: expecting not many points.

529
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 2: We spent probably the most time talking about a game

530
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 2: that neither one of us likes. Okay, we have the

531
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 2: two minute drill next right after we check it with

532
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 2: John Ewen for some trend based sports betting insights.

533
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 6: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

534
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 6: trend of the week.

535
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 7: The Buffalo Bills offense averaging ten point four points per

536
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 7: game is comically bad. The team hasn't scored more than

537
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 7: thirteen points in a game since Week three and has

538
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 7: managed to score only eight touchdowns this season. Per Football Outsiders,

539
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 7: Buffalo has the worst offensive DVOA ever measured through nine games.

540
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 7: The Bill's historic offensive ineptitude is why the New York

541
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 7: Jets opened as eight point favorites on Sunday. But here's

542
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,959
Speaker 7: the thing. Bad offenses are often undervalued, especially after a

543
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,239
Speaker 7: blowout loss. The Bills fell to the forty one to

544
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,719
Speaker 7: nine last Sunday. Since two thousand and three, teams following

545
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 7: a loss of four more touchdowns that score fewer than

546
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 7: twenty points per game like Buffalo have gone ninety eight

547
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 7: seventy two to five. That's a fifty eight percent win

548
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 7: rate against the spread in their next game. If the

549
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 7: team's an underdog, like the Bills, the ATS win rate

550
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,199
Speaker 7: improves to sixty percent and majority of bets are on

551
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 7: the Jets. But the line has moved from Buffalo plus

552
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 7: eight to plus six and a half. When the line

553
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 7: moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, this

554
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 7: is called reverse line movement and is an indication of

555
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 7: sharp money. Those wanting to wager on the Bills better

556
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 7: at quick as this line continues to decrease.

557
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: That was John. Be sure to check out his sports

558
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 2: betting articles each week at the Action Network. Chris the

559
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: quote unquote two minute drill. We're going to run through

560
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: the remaining non primetime games and two minutes or as

561
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 2: close as we can get to two minutes. The four

562
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 2: and four Seahawks at the eight to one Rams, Rams

563
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 2: favored by ten a fifty point five over under, the

564
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 2: first time in his career that Russell Wilson has been

565
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 2: a digit dog.

566
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 4: If he's going to cover, he's going to need help

567
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 4: from his receivers. Since week three. David Moore had had

568
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 4: the bad drop last week, but weeds Seattle in air

569
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 4: yards market share with a twenty nine percent share, and

570
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 4: he's tied for the team lead in target share as

571
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 4: well since we three at seventeen percent. He's played seventy

572
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 4: five percent of the snaps over the last two weeks,

573
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 4: and the Rams have allowed the most touchdowns and the

574
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 4: fifth most yards two wide receivers over the past five weeks.

575
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 2: The six and two Chargers at the one in seven Raiders.

576
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 2: The Chargers favored by ten a forty nine point five

577
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: points over under. Is a rematch of the twenty six

578
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: to ten home victory eight Week five for the Chargers.

579
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 4: Melvin Gordon played a season high eighty eight percent of

580
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 4: the snaps last week, has one hundred yards and or

581
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 4: a touchdown in every game open, allowing one hundred and

582
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 4: sixty eight total yards to running backs along with one

583
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 4: in a quarter touchdowns per game. And I'll give you

584
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 4: a bonus. John Gruden against Vance Joseph and Hugh Jackson,

585
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 4: the least profitable coach against the spread and the former

586
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 4: we ffitable coach against the spread before he got fired.

587
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,719
Speaker 4: He's two and zero against the spread, one in one

588
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 4: straight up, and his team has a plus two point

589
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 4: differential in his other six games own six, own six

590
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 4: against the spread minus one thirteen.

591
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm going to say this. Eighteen percent

592
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 2: of the tickets fifty three percent of the money is

593
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 2: on the Raiders in that game. The five and three

594
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: Redskins at the three and five Buccaneers. Buccaneers favored by

595
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 2: three eight fifty one point five over under. This game

596
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 2: opened at a pick them. These are two of the

597
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 2: most injured teams in the league facing off.

598
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,719
Speaker 4: Mike Evans got milk cartons last week by Carolina James Bradberry,

599
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 4: but Carolina is actually number two in DVA versus number

600
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 4: one wide receivers. Washington, on the other hand, ranks eighteenth,

601
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 4: and their ninety six point nine schedule adjusted yards allowed

602
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 4: per game to number one wideouts are most in the

603
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 4: league per Football Outsiders. So I recommended obj Julio against

604
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 4: these Redskins in our Fantasy labs dot Com Premium main

605
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 4: slate the FS Breakdown, and it looks like I will

606
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 4: be recommended Evans this week against the Redskins as well.

607
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 2: Fifty two percent of the tickets eighty four percent in

608
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 2: the money is on the Bucks in that game, the

609
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 2: three and five Jags at the three and five Colts.

610
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: The Colts favored by forty six point five over under.

611
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: The Jags have lost four games in a row. The

612
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: Colts have won two straight and could legit win their

613
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 2: next four.

614
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, the only real story in this game

615
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 4: is it's a revenge game for Dante Moncrief. I mean, obviously,

616
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 4: of course, but seriously, Moncrief actually leads Jacksonville and target

617
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 4: share at eighteen percent, airyard shared by Amayo at thirty

618
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 4: two percent, and at inside the ten targets share at

619
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 4: twenty five percent. He's been the only receiver that's kind

620
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 4: of maintained a consistent role now that Kewan Cole has

621
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 4: kind of been I don't know if he's been demoted,

622
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 4: but he didn't play more than that. He didn't hit

623
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 4: thirty percent of the snaps last week.

624
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,719
Speaker 2: The two and seven Bills at the three and six Jets.

625
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: Jets favored by six and a half a thirty six

626
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 2: point five over under. The Bills have lost four straight games,

627
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 2: but they might get Josh Allen back. Not sure about

628
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 2: that yet. The Jets have lost three straight and are

629
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: expected to be without Sam Darnold.

630
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 4: So my favorite thing about this game is going to

631
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 4: be to watch Trell Pryor. Pryor played eighty two percent

632
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 4: of the snaps in his first game as a Bill

633
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 4: got five targets in a carry. Among wide receivers with

634
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 4: twenty or more targets this season, Prior ranks fourteenth in

635
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 4: the league in yards per route run. That's ahead of

636
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 4: guys like Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon, will Fuller, Davonte Adams,

637
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 4: and Juju Smith Schuster.

638
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: Finally, the seven and two Patriots at the four and

639
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: four Titans. Patriots favored by six and a half a

640
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 2: forty six point five over under. The Pats have won

641
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: six straight after their one and two starts. They are

642
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 2: the number one team in the Action Network Power rankings.

643
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 2: The Titans are yet to score more than twenty eight

644
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 2: points this year.

645
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 4: Another AFC South revenge game, this time Dion Lewis, after

646
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 4: offensive coordinator Matt Lafleur mentioned Lewis would be more involved

647
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 4: then Derreck Henry going forward. Prior to the game against

648
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 4: the Cowboys, Lewis out snapped Henry by a rate of

649
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 4: eighty four percent to twenty percent in a game that

650
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 4: Tennis Lee actually had positive game script and led throughout

651
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 4: most of the game, which was by far the biggest

652
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 4: discrepancy between the two in terms of snap rate on

653
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,239
Speaker 4: the season. At forty six hundred on DraftKings, Lewis has

654
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 4: a top projected plus minus among all running backs, and

655
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 4: he also has a top five projected plus minus even

656
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 4: on FanDuel despite at the zero point five PPR.

657
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: All right, and you also have the Malcolm Butler and

658
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 2: head coach Mike Vrabel revenge game as well, So yeah,

659
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 2: a lot to look forward to there coming up. As

660
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 2: our third and long segment, on lineup building in Slate Strategy.

661
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 2: Right after Josh Applebaum tells us which game the wise

662
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: guys are betting this week, the.

663
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 6: Money talks and action apple bomb is all ears. This

664
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 6: is the Sharp Report.

665
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 4: NFL Week ten.

666
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 5: We are traveling to Nashville, down to the Music City

667
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 5: for a showdown between the seven and two Patriots and

668
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 5: the four and four Tennessee Titans. Titans came off an

669
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 5: impressive win and cover last week in Dallas, but yet

670
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 5: they are still getting no public love for recreational betters.

671
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 5: The Mighty Patriots once again are a huge public favorite.

672
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 5: This game opened on the key number of seven, the

673
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 5: Patriots listed as a seven point road favorite. Currently eighty

674
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 5: one percent of spread beats are laying the points on

675
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 5: the road with Brady and Belichick. However, we've seen some

676
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 5: big wise guy action on the Tennessee Titans. This game

677
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 5: open at seven, and Sharp's immediately got down hard on

678
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 5: Tennessee Titans on the key number of seven. The interesting

679
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 5: thing here is that this overload of Sharp action caused

680
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 5: this line to fall down to six and a half.

681
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 5: And also we've seen that the juice on the six

682
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 5: and a half is actually juiced up on the Titan side,

683
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 5: so at Pinnacle and Bookmaker, the juice is currently Titans

684
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 5: plus six and a half minus one fifteen. This lets

685
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 5: you know that the liability is still on the Titan

686
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 5: side even though the line has fallen half point in

687
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 5: their favor. Looks like the next move may even be

688
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 5: down to six now that it's off the key number

689
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 5: of seven. We haven't seen any moves on Titans six

690
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 5: and a half, so really got to get the key

691
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 5: number of seven in this one. Another interesting point here,

692
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 5: Titans are only getting nineteen percent of spread bets. As

693
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 5: a result, they would be a class conririon player. They

694
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 5: would fit the Sports Insights eighty twenty rule. Since two

695
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 5: thousand and five, teams getting twenty percent or less spread

696
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 5: bets are fifty five percent ATS. So far this season,

697
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 5: teams getting less than thirty percent of spread bets are

698
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 5: sixty one percent ATS. So, as always, the public will

699
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 5: be pounding the Patriots expecting an easy cover with Brady

700
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 5: and Belichick, but the wise guys are buying low on

701
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 5: the Titans getting seven points at home.

702
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: Okay, that was Josh. Be sure to check out his

703
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: article The Sharp Report each week on the Action Network Chris,

704
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 2: let's talk some strategy. Let's look at the highest owned

705
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 2: players in the Fantasy Labs models. Let's think about who

706
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 2: we would roster, who we might pivot away from, and

707
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 2: some of the guys we might want to pivot to.

708
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 2: And let's start at the quarterback position. The guy that

709
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: right now has the highest ownership projection in our models

710
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 2: is Jared Goff at home, a big favorite going against

711
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 2: the divisional rival Seattle Seahawks. What are you doing with Gough?

712
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 4: You know, back at home? I love GoF, He's always

713
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 4: in a smash spot. But on DraftKings, Patrick Mahomes is

714
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 4: just price so affordably that I don't think you really

715
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 4: want to go away from him when you don't have to.

716
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 4: On FANDUL he's up at ninety eight hundred, so I

717
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 4: think that it's fair to kind of think about other

718
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 4: options there are, though, I think you know FANDU they

719
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 4: always allow you to kind of get in an extra

720
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: stud compared to the draftings, so you can certainly do

721
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 4: it on either site, but especially on DraftKings, I'm leaning

722
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 4: toward going with Mahomes. GoF is in a better spot

723
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 4: on fandel and you know, the Seahawks It's interesting, you know,

724
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 4: I think if you're stacking, if you're using Todd Gurley,

725
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 4: it's also another reason to use golf and cash games,

726
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:35,959
Speaker 4: because then you're just kind of stacking up that whole

727
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 4: entire Rams offense. Now, obviously you can also do that

728
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,959
Speaker 4: with Kareem Hunt and Patrick Mahomes, but that's a tactic

729
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 4: that I use quite a bit in cash games when

730
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 4: there's kind of an offense in a smash spot, I

731
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 4: would I would lean Chiefs in terms of a smash spot,

732
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 4: just because the Seahawks have been pretty good on defense

733
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 4: this year, to kind of I think most people's surprise.

734
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 4: They are still top five in DVOA and they're number

735
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 4: five overall against the past. So if I had a

736
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 4: kind of pick between you know, the Chiefs or the

737
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 4: Rams this week, I would still go with with the Chiefs.

738
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,280
Speaker 4: But Jared gov has very very positive home splits.

739
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: All right, what about Aaron Rodgers going to get some

740
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins.

741
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 4: You know, that's an interesting one for me. I think,

742
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 4: you know, his price is kind of undraftings at sixty

743
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 4: four hundred, that's a really good price for him, but

744
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 4: in cash games at eight hundred lesson Mahomes. I still

745
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 4: kind of wan Mahomes or you know, kind of go

746
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 4: to GoF the problem with this game to me is

747
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 4: that I just don't really have a great handle on

748
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 4: how I think it's going to play out. With the

749
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 4: big spread, I could see it's kind of being one

750
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 4: of those games like the Buffalo game where the Packers

751
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 4: win handily twenty two nothing. They ran the ball and

752
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 4: that was that. And so because Aaron Rodgers isn't opposing

753
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 4: a quarterback like a Jared Goff that he has or

754
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 4: Tom Brady last week, I don't think his outlook as

755
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 4: far as having you know, one of those Aaron Rodgers

756
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 4: four hundred yard three touchdown games, is quite as high

757
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 4: as it would be in a game with a team

758
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 4: that's expected to be more competitive. I actually think that

759
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 4: if you do think either the Dolphins can stay clos

760
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: or that this is going to be one of those games,

761
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 4: I think what you do is you take advantage of

762
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 4: those opposing quarterbacks correlations and you pivot to brock Osqui

763
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 4: where who's going to be really low owned and is

764
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 4: super cheap.

765
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: Okay, let's talk about the Beard Fitzpatrick. I think he's

766
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: in a really interesting spot. He's probably I mean, he's

767
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 2: popping in some of our Fantasy Labs models. Personally, I

768
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: just love like I like watching him play, Like I

769
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 2: like that offense. It's dynamic. He's old and he like

770
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 2: he knows he's on his last opportunity, so he's just

771
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: like airing the ball all over the place. That in

772
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 2: no way is any reason to roster him in DFS,

773
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: but like it's fun to roster him and he's in

774
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: a good spot. What are your thoughts about him this week?

775
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, to me, Ryan, like Ryan Fitzpatrick is

776
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 4: the number two quarterback in fantasy to me, like like

777
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 4: it's Patrick Mahomes and it's Ryan, Like there's no quarterback

778
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 4: I feel more confident on a week to week basis,

779
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 4: will put up numbers outside of Patrick Mahomes, cluding Jared Goff,

780
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 4: including Breez and cluding Bray Rogers, all those guys Cam

781
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 4: Newton included, then this guy, Ryfitzpatrick.

782
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: The question is is he going to get benched? Right?

783
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 4: Right?

784
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 6: Right?

785
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 4: That's the only thing. Yeah, And so that's really the

786
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 4: only reason that I wouldn't And we talked about this

787
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 4: last week. You know, it's the only reason that I

788
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,479
Speaker 4: wouldn't say, hey, go ahead and lock him in cash games.

789
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 4: It's because there's always that chance that he gets matched.

790
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 4: If you just look at the Tampa Bay quarterbacks and

791
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,320
Speaker 4: the numbers that they put up together, I mean every game,

792
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 4: it's just hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of yards and touchdowns, right,

793
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 4: and then they don't run for touchdowns ever, right, and

794
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 4: if they do, it's the quarterback. So I mean, he's

795
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 4: the number one tournament play because he's cheaper than Patrick Mahomes.

796
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 4: So that's the way I'm approaching him. Number one tournament play.

797
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,919
Speaker 4: Let's not use him in cash just I mean, it's

798
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 4: crazy because even if he gets benched, I mean he

799
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 4: could be he could throw for like two hundred and

800
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 4: three scores. It's just like but like, yeah, i'd say,

801
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 4: you know, lay off in cash. But he's the number

802
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 4: one tournament play and as long as he's starting.

803
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I think it's Golfer Mahomes and

804
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 2: cash Fitzpatrick and GPP. One more quarterback to mention, Philip

805
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 2: Rivers in a really good spot going against just that,

806
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,919
Speaker 2: the hapless defense of the Raiders. What are you doing

807
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 2: with him? Yeah?

808
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 4: So when I was doing rankings. I you know, I

809
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 4: kind of saw like Rivers wasn't popping up as high

810
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: as I thought he would have gone against the Raiders,

811
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 4: And then I started looking into it, and I realized

812
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: I had n't projected for a pretty well amount of

813
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 4: pass attempts. And that's because he hasn't cleared thirty attempts

814
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 4: in his last four games. He's only had more than

815
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 4: thirty twice ald season. One of those was against the Chiefs.

816
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 4: Through fifty one times, He's just not throwing a high

817
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 4: volume of pass attempts. And so because the league has

818
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 4: kind of trended towards a scoring explosion, you're seeing more

819
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 4: games where you know, lesser quarterbacks are attempting more passes

820
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 4: and therefore putting up bigger numbers just because the other

821
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 4: team is doing the same thing. And so I think Rivers,

822
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 4: I don't think he's safe enough for cash, especially because

823
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 4: he doesn't run at all, but I think he is

824
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 4: a great tournament play because that Raiders defense is obviously

825
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:56,959
Speaker 4: checked out.

826
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: Okay, let's transition to running backs. Seattle most expensive player

827
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 2: on the slate, highest ownership by the way. Subscribers can

828
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 2: find our rankings each week at Actionnetwork dot Com Slash Fantasy.

829
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 2: He of course is the highest ranked player in those rankings.

830
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 2: What are you doing with Gurley?

831
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 4: So I think this week, depending on how you're building

832
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 4: your lineup, I think it's another one of those weeks

833
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 4: where there's enough on the slate that you could go

834
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 4: away from him if you don't want to pay all

835
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 4: the way up. I think Melvin Gordon in particular, is

836
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 4: in just a great spot. I mean, the player that

837
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 4: benefits the most from the Chargers playing this really balanced

838
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 4: offensive game plan is Gordon. I mentioned the eighty eight

839
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 4: percent snap rate last week. He's got one hundred yards

840
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 4: and or a touchdown in every game, over one hundred

841
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 4: and twenty yards per game from scrimmage. Raiders mentioned getting

842
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 4: blasted by running backs, So I think Gordon's an option. Obviously,

843
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 4: Kareem Hunt is an option, and then Kamara as well.

844
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 4: I mean I talked about the Bengals and their struggles tackling.

845
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 4: You mentioned that they're going to be without linebackers, so

846
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 4: there's definitely a lot of options to kind of go

847
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 4: away from girl in this spot against Seattle, who tends

848
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 4: to play who tends to play him tough for the

849
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 4: most part. I don't ever really feel like not playing girly,

850
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 4: but I don't think he's like a oh my god,

851
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 4: I have to jam him in with some of the

852
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 4: other studbacks in good positions on the sleep.

853
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 2: Okay, let's look at the other side of the rams

854
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: Seahawks game. Mike Davis is someone who potentially could be

855
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 2: popular just depending on what happens with Chris Carson. Right now,

856
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 2: we're expecting him to be out, which would give the

857
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 2: Lion's share, if not like the entire share of the

858
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 2: workload to Mike Davis there and I believe it was

859
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: in Week four when he filled in for Chris Carson

860
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 2: and had a pretty big game, going over one hundred yards,

861
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 2: had two touchdowns. What are your thoughts on Davis, And

862
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 2: let's assume it's in this context of Chris Carson not playing.

863
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 4: I love Davis, actually, I thought, I think, you know,

864
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 4: just from watching him, I think he's a really good player.

865
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 4: He always tends to pop on film. I thought the

866
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 4: same thing last year, even though he was behind that

867
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 4: miserable offensive line, so he didn't really get the numbers,

868
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 4: but he had kind of a run with He was

869
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 4: Seattle's best option of all those sales guys last year,

870
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 4: and then this year he's kind of kind of forced

871
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 4: his way into a role. Really, I mean, I think

872
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 4: they start even though they weren't as hot, maybe Pete

873
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 4: Carroll anyway wasn't as high, and Rashad Penny as the

874
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 4: front office, I think they fully intended to kind of

875
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 4: go forward with this, like one A one B split

876
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 4: of Carson and Rashad Penny and Mike Davis kind of

877
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: threw a wrench into those plans, and I think that's

878
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 4: for good reason. I think he's probably going to continue

879
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 4: to be a factor even when Carson comes back. But

880
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 4: if Carson's out, I think you definitely want to want

881
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 4: to fire Davis up in all formats. I mean, the

882
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 4: Rams we know Wade Phillips likes to kind of conceide

883
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 4: the run at times instead of giving up the pass,

884
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 4: and that's kind of born out in their numbers this

885
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 4: year again, they're twelfth in pass defense DVA but twenty

886
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 4: fourth in run defense dvway, so I really will and

887
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:52,879
Speaker 4: let's not forget Seattle is the most run heavy team

888
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 4: in the league, and so I do think you'll see

889
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 4: Penny like I don't think Penny will be confined to

890
00:40:57,560 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 4: the bench. But I do also think that you could have,

891
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 4: just like Carson has had, I think a thirty carry

892
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 4: game or two. I think you could see Davis put

893
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 4: the ball in his stomach thirty plus times in this

894
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:07,879
Speaker 4: game if Carson is out.

895
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, one guy we mentioned earlier, Dion Lewis and the

896
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 2: revenge game against the New England Patriots. We are projecting

897
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 2: him to be pretty highly owned, which makes sense. If

898
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: he has negative game script, he will be a guy

899
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 2: who has the opportunity to get a lot of targets.

900
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 2: If there's positive game script, that's fine for him because

901
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 2: he's out snapping and out touching Derrick Henry anyway. So

902
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 2: a good kind of all around spot for him. What

903
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: are you doing with him?

904
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 4: You know, he's kind of in this weird spot where

905
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 4: I think you know in cash games, it's on draftings.

906
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 4: I think you definitely, I think you consider him on

907
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 4: both spots. It just because of that snap rate at

908
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 4: this point. I mean, I remember doing the podcast last

909
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 4: year and just talking to my d TJ. Hernandez about

910
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 4: the fact that like Dean Wis looked like the best

911
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 4: player on the field for the New England Patriots, down

912
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 4: the stretch last year and when he was given a

913
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 4: heavy workload, and now it kind of looks like the

914
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,760
Speaker 4: Titans have kind of figured out that same thing about

915
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,280
Speaker 4: Deon Lewis that like, hey, you know, we got Derrick Henry.

916
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,959
Speaker 4: He's this highly drafted guy. We know he can bang.

917
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 4: He's even got some explosiveness to him. He can but

918
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 4: like at the end of the day, like the offense

919
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 4: looks stuck in the mud with Derek Henry's out there,

920
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:16,720
Speaker 4: Dion Lewis is just kind of he's a difference maker.

921
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,720
Speaker 4: So I think it continues. Don't love the ownership for tournaments.

922
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 4: I think that's where you kind of pivot away because

923
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 4: I mean there's just a wide range of outcomes with

924
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 4: Lewis even considering all that, I mean, it's not like

925
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 4: he's guaranteed for a touchdown or really anything for sure.

926
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 4: We also know that Bill Belichick, you know, has his

927
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 4: ways and who knows what could end up happening. Strange

928
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 4: things happen in Patriots game. So I think the tournaments

929
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 4: there's a lot of leverage to just just going in

930
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 4: a different direction. I feel a lot more confident about

931
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 4: Davis in tournaments. If Carson is out just because I

932
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 4: think the Workloade will just be so umongous. I think

933
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 4: Seattle's committed to the run. I think that, you know,

934
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 4: even if they start passing the ball, I think Davis

935
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 4: will get work in the passing game as well. It's

936
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 4: a higher projected over under. So I like Davis over

937
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 4: Lewis this week.

938
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 2: All right, well we're got to talk about here at

939
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 2: the running back position. David Johnson coming off of the

940
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 2: buy in that Byron Leftwich coordinated offense. What are your

941
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 2: thoughts on him?

942
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 4: I love David Johnson this week. I mean, you're going

943
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 4: against the Kansas City Chiefs. They rank number thirty two,

944
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:17,439
Speaker 4: dead last in run defense DVOA. You have a guy

945
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 4: in David Johnson who, you know, a new offensive coordinator

946
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 4: essentially knew that one of the reasons he even has

947
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 4: a job is because the last offensive coordinator underused David Johnson.

948
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 4: Now they're coming off of a bye. I mean, I

949
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 4: just think that you have to keep kind of using

950
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 4: your common sense in these situations and just saying, you know,

951
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 4: at some point, David Johnson is he's gonna get fed

952
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 4: and he's gonna have his like thirty touch explosion David

953
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 4: Johnson game even when he even though he hasn't been

954
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 4: doing that, he's the floor has been has been decent

955
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 4: for the most part. So I like David Johnson as

956
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:48,240
Speaker 4: a cash play.

957
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. I remember a couple of weeks ago there was

958
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 2: one prop at an online sports book, actually a couple

959
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,280
Speaker 2: of props on David Johnson, but like, would he actually

960
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 2: have one hundred yard rushing game this season? Is something

961
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 2: like that. That was one of the props there. So

962
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 2: who knows, Maybe it will work out for you the

963
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: one week that he hits it, he will be in

964
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 2: your lineup. Let's talk about the wide receivers Davante Adams

965
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 2: and Marquez Valdez Scantling at home going against Miami MVS

966
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: in particular is intriguing giving that Geronimo Allison is now

967
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 2: on IR so MBS is locked in as a starter

968
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: and not just a starter like he really at that

969
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 2: point might be the number two receiver within that offense.

970
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 2: Perhaps he's overtaken Randall Cobb. What are your thoughts on

971
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 2: those two guys.

972
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 4: Valda Scantling is like a guy who he he just

973
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 4: flashes every week, So I think he's It depends on

974
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 4: how roster construction shakes out because if he's going, if

975
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 4: he ends up being the chalkiest, cheap receiver, wide receivers

976
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 4: are always kind of hard to predict. You mentioned Randal Cobb,

977
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 4: who you know, even though Valdez Scantling has been a

978
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 4: little bit more productive Cop and in and out of

979
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,919
Speaker 4: the lineup, Cop still has a twenty percent target share

980
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,399
Speaker 4: in that offense that is still number two on the team.

981
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,280
Speaker 4: I also think that when you're going up against the Dolphins,

982
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 4: I'm always looking at these you know, like backs in

983
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 4: ti ends because the Dolphins tend to struggle to cover

984
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,879
Speaker 4: those positions just giving some of the personnel. So I

985
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 4: actually think in this game in particular, it's also a

986
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 4: good spot for Jimmy Graham. So kind of a lot

987
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 4: of movie pieces where it's like, I'm not sold on

988
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 4: Nowdaz Scantling like being that like obvious smash, Oh my god,

989
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 4: Like he's a number two guy in the Packers, and

990
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 4: that means he's going to, you know, be he's like

991
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 4: a lock. But if it makes sense from a roster

992
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 4: construction standpoint, I don't think it's like the worst thing

993
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 4: because just because he has a ton of upside and

994
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 4: all receivers are unpredictable anyway, so it's not like you're

995
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 4: giving up a huge floor by playing Valde scanting anyway.

996
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the Cincinnati New Orleans game.

997
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 2: Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd. Two guys, we are projecting for

998
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 2: pretty high ownership. How are you approaching them? So?

999
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 4: I think this is, I mean because of Thomas, because Thomas,

1000
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 4: you know, priced himself up with that monster end of

1001
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 4: the game last week. Not a week where I want

1002
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 4: to use him necessarily. Uh, you know in this game

1003
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,400
Speaker 4: mentioned that, you know, I'm kind of feeling like this

1004
00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 4: game may go under. I really like Kamara's matchups, so

1005
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,359
Speaker 4: I think that's the player that's top of the list

1006
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 4: for me to target, especially in cash gas and tournaments. Obviously,

1007
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 4: you know, Michael Thomas liable to go off any given week.

1008
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 4: Although I don't think this is it doesn't me look

1009
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 4: like the smash spot of smash spots Tyler Boyd. He

1010
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 4: scares me a little bit because from just like a

1011
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 4: numbers target, you know, projection perspective, all that he should

1012
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 4: just smash. I mean, there's no forty percent of the

1013
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 4: air yards are missing, quarters of the targets are missing

1014
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 4: with AJ Green being out, and the Saints are good

1015
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 4: run defending team. But the one the one thing I

1016
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 4: worry about is that it's kind of like maybe a

1017
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 4: similar situation to what would happen in a place like

1018
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 4: Detroit when Golden tates out. But it's like now the

1019
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 4: defense they're treating Boyd as the number one, like they

1020
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 4: have all week to kind of prepare and double triple

1021
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 4: whatever they want to do with Boyd, And so we

1022
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 4: haven't really seen him in this spot ever yet, Like

1023
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,360
Speaker 4: this is he's never really been the number one guy before.

1024
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 4: So that's the only thing that kind of scares me

1025
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 4: a little bit into thinking, like, probably not the safest

1026
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 4: talk so in tournaments, I definitely think you want to

1027
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 4: find ways, and of course it's receiver, so there's many

1028
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 4: ways to go around him. But yeah, I don't think

1029
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:10,879
Speaker 4: he's like a cash game lock either, because I think

1030
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,919
Speaker 4: there's a possibility that New Orleans could just sell out

1031
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 4: to shut him down and make Cincinnati beat them with

1032
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 4: other options who are few and far between him at

1033
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 4: this point.

1034
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 2: All Right, Keenan Allen at the Oakland Raiders.

1035
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 4: I like it. I would like it a little bit more.

1036
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 4: If Philip Rivers was attempting more than thirty passes a game,

1037
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,840
Speaker 4: I think that also makes him a little bit a

1038
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 4: little bit shaky in cash games. I think this is

1039
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 4: like as as most weeks are. I think you want

1040
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 4: to try to lock in that production at running back,

1041
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 4: just to higher floor, and then at receiver. There are

1042
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 4: guy like, for example, Jarvis Landry sitting here at sixty

1043
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 4: two hundred on d K, sixty four hundred on FanDuel.

1044
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 4: He's averaging eleven point one hardest per game. He has

1045
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 4: five or more catches and or a touchdown in eight

1046
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 4: of his nine games. He's going to be in a

1047
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 4: high total game. Like, there are receivers that you can

1048
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 4: kind of get at these mid tier price ranges is

1049
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 4: that have similar kind of Floyd stealing combinations to two

1050
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 4: guys that are a little higher priced, that are just

1051
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,839
Speaker 4: a little more a little more trendy. So I think

1052
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 4: that's the roster construction I'll end up favoring this week,

1053
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 4: just because I don't feel great about the possibility of

1054
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 4: boy being like the focal point of the defense all right.

1055
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 2: I don't think we can move on from wide receivers

1056
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,959
Speaker 2: until we given like the obligatory mentioned to the three

1057
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:25,760
Speaker 2: Rams receivers. There you have Robert Woods, Brandon Cooks, Cooper Cup.

1058
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 2: Thoughts on those three guys, These.

1059
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 4: Guys are kind of smash spots every week. I think

1060
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 4: every week you want to play, if you play tournaments,

1061
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 4: if you play multiple lineups, you want to stack Jared

1062
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 4: Goff with one, if not two of these guys, if

1063
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,839
Speaker 4: not with Gurley as well, And so you know, there's

1064
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,480
Speaker 4: there's really nothing more to say. I mean, I think

1065
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 4: Cup is the guy that you want to play in

1066
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 4: cash games because he's always been that consistent guy in

1067
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 4: terms of not only catching the passes but getting the

1068
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 4: red zone targets. That's really important for him. And then

1069
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,240
Speaker 4: Cooks and Woods because Cup is back, make for better

1070
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 4: tournament plays. Would looks like you have the lowest projected ownership.

1071
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 4: That's obviously would be the best tournament play. If that

1072
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 4: if that's actually true, But I think Cupp is the

1073
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 4: guy you want to play in cash games.

1074
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about tight ends quickly, because it's

1075
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 2: a disgusting position outside of Travis Kelcey versus Arizona. But

1076
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 2: I mean there are other guys. There's Burton, there's read

1077
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:23,280
Speaker 2: there's n joku. How are you addressing this position?

1078
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't really know what to do. Jeff

1079
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 4: Hireman is gone by this week. It is tough. I think.

1080
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 2: It's funny when it's like, I don't know what to

1081
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 2: do because Jeff Hireman. If I had told you when

1082
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 2: the season started that week ten what you're going to

1083
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 2: do with the tight end position was going to inge

1084
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 2: on whether or not Hireman was on by or not

1085
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 2: on By, you would not have believed me.

1086
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:50,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's tough, but you know, I do think

1087
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 4: you know the reason we're saying it's tough is because

1088
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,959
Speaker 4: tight end, being the volatile position that it is, there's

1089
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 4: been some busts over these past few weeks, and what

1090
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 4: that has done is has lowered the prices, and so

1091
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 4: I think you just take advantage of that. I mean,

1092
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 4: on DraftKings, Trey Burton sitting here at thirty nine hundred

1093
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:13,720
Speaker 4: Detroit is number thirty in DVA versus tight ends. Maybe

1094
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,879
Speaker 4: people won't be quite as enthusiastic about Burton if Alan

1095
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:20,239
Speaker 4: Robinson comes back, especially with Anthony Miller also getting a

1096
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 4: lot of love. But I think Burton's still in a

1097
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 4: really good spot to produce. I think he's a high

1098
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 4: upside play pretty much every week that he plays. I mean,

1099
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 4: let's not forget he's pretty much a strictly receiver, even

1100
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 4: though he goes as a tight end by name. And

1101
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 4: then on FANDUL you have a couple of guys also

1102
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 4: priced down. Jordan Reid at fifty two hundred, if he

1103
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 4: suits up, would be in a good spot. Tampa Bay

1104
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 4: ranked number twenty nine in D Day versus tight ends,

1105
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 4: and then David n Djokhu. You know in Baker Mayfield

1106
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 4: six starts five times over fifty hours, six times GOOSEG.

1107
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 4: I mean, it sucks when you hit the gooseg, but

1108
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 4: those are still really good odds. And I think in

1109
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 4: this game against Atlanta, Dean Jones still going to be

1110
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 4: out for one more week over under above fifty. I

1111
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 4: think it's another good spot for in djoku as well.

1112
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 4: So I think you just kind of take advantage of

1113
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 4: those of those guys in cash games, and then in

1114
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 4: tournaments you just either go with Kelsey or you just

1115
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 4: try to find somebody lower owned because a lot of

1116
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:17,439
Speaker 4: the Titans have pretty similar out So I mentioned Jimmy Graham.

1117
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 4: I kind of like Jimmy Graham is a tournament play.

1118
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 4: I'm going against my.

1119
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 2: M You're in djoku. Description was basically like Russian rolette.

1120
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 4: It was like, I like my odds of not dying until.

1121
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:34,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Okay. We're going to close out the show

1122
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 2: with our fourth and Goal segment previewing Sunday Night Football.

1123
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:39,879
Speaker 2: But first let's kick into Ian Harditz, who runs through

1124
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 2: the key week ten coverage situations.

1125
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 6: The press, the jam, and the five yard bum. Ian

1126
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 6: Harden springs you Dance of the Divas.

1127
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 3: Week ten has seven key wide receiver, cornerback shadow matchups

1128
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 3: versus Hulio Jones was as cornerback Denzel Award the twenty

1129
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 3: eighteen draft number four overall pick his PFS number twelve

1130
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 3: overall corner but Julio has a four inch height advantage

1131
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 3: and forty pound waight advantage and is capable of winning

1132
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 3: any matchup anyway. Alan Robinson is expecting to play this

1133
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,240
Speaker 3: week after having this growing injury against Lions cornerback Darius Slay,

1134
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 3: last year's first team All Pro cornerback, is more than

1135
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 3: capable of winning his matchup. A ROBS averaging and career

1136
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 3: low eleven point four yards per reception this season Corey

1137
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 3: Davis has another tough matchup against Patriots cornerback Stefan Gilmour,

1138
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:30,399
Speaker 3: who has allowed feer than seventy five total receiving years

1139
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 3: and six of his seven shadow matchups this year. Mike

1140
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 3: Evans will face off against Redskins cornerback Josh Norman, who

1141
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 3: has allowed over one hundred yards to each of Julio

1142
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 3: Jones and Odell Beckham Junior in his last two shadow matchups.

1143
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 3: Robbie Anderson, if he plays through his ankle injury, will

1144
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 3: face off against Bill's cornerback Terdavius White. Anderson will benefit

1145
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 3: from Josh McCown under center. It's a tough matchup by

1146
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:52,399
Speaker 3: Anderson did roast White for a thirty yard touchdown during

1147
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 3: their meetings last season. Key Y Hilton is expected to

1148
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 3: be shadowed by Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Last season, Hilton

1149
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 3: caught five passes for seventy eight yards a touchdown on

1150
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,280
Speaker 3: fourteen targets in two games under Ramsey's shadow. DeVante Adams

1151
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: should see plenty of Dolphins quarterbacks Avi and Howard, who

1152
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,720
Speaker 3: has four interceptions this season but is about three touchdowns

1153
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 3: in coverage, and DeAndre Hopkins showed that he's not a

1154
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 3: matchup wish of fear anyway. Aaron Rodgers number one wide

1155
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 3: receiver is always one hundred percent matchup proof. My number

1156
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 3: one favorite matchup oy the week is Keenan Allen versus

1157
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:21,799
Speaker 3: the Raiders. He's only had one touchdown this year, but

1158
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 3: Rivers is the only quarterback with multiple touchdowns in every game,

1159
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 3: so expecting some positive regression in the second half, much

1160
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,359
Speaker 3: like we saw in twenty seventeen. Keenan's facing the Raiders

1161
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 3: bottom two defense in overall and pass DVLA. They're susceptible

1162
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:35,799
Speaker 3: in the slot and on the outside, and Keenan has

1163
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 3: caught at least five passes and five consecutive matchups against

1164
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 3: the Raiders.

1165
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 2: All Right, that was Ian. Be sure to check out

1166
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,359
Speaker 2: his wide receiver cornerback matchup call um each week at

1167
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 2: the Action Network. Chris oh Man. This game the three

1168
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 2: and five Cowboys at the four and four Eagles. I

1169
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 2: can't believe this is a Sunday night football game. They

1170
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 2: need to deflex us something better. Eagles favored by seven

1171
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 2: a forty three point over under. The spread is up

1172
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 2: from six, the total is down from three and a half.

1173
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,720
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are coming off a disheartening Monday Night football

1174
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 2: loss to the Titans, and they will likely be without

1175
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 2: linebacker Sean Lee. The Eagles are coming off the buy.

1176
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 2: They have just added Cowboys killer Golden Tate, who now

1177
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,759
Speaker 2: will play the Cowboys three times this year, and they

1178
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,800
Speaker 2: are also expecting to get back right tackle Lane Johnson.

1179
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:18,919
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here?

1180
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:21,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Cowboy killer Gogan Tate, I think it sets

1181
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 4: up well for him. Dallas is number twenty eight in

1182
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 4: DVA on passes over the middle Zach Ertz. That obviously,

1183
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 4: alto benefits Dallas's twenty fifth versus the tight end in

1184
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 4: their thirtieth indiviway versus short passes as well, So I

1185
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 4: think Ertz Tate, even Agalar. I mean this sets up

1186
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 4: well for the Philadelphia receivers to have a good game.

1187
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 4: By the way, Carson Wentz sitting around here with a

1188
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,879
Speaker 4: thirteen to two touchdown interception ratio a one o nine

1189
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 4: point six passer rating. I don't think anyone's really talking

1190
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 4: about this because he kind of missed a couple of

1191
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 4: games to start the year, but he's picking up right

1192
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,840
Speaker 4: back where he left off. Now he gets another we

1193
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 4: been in Golden Tate. I think that this is going

1194
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 4: to be a signature game for Phillia. They haven't really

1195
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,400
Speaker 4: had a game where they've kind of smashed yet. They

1196
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 4: had that one against the Giants, but I mean that's like,

1197
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 4: come on, I think they'll get it done here. I

1198
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 4: don't like that the spread is moving up. I think

1199
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 4: there was a lot more value with this number at

1200
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:19,799
Speaker 4: six six and a half than at seven, but I'm

1201
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,640
Speaker 4: still taking it at seven. And the reason is Jason

1202
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 4: Garrett has just not done a good job of preparing

1203
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:30,279
Speaker 4: this team in general. Really, I mean, they're always kind

1204
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 4: of lacking when it comes to the details or certain

1205
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 4: strategic things that they should probably be employing, but especially

1206
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 4: when he's on a short week. So in his career,

1207
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:42,839
Speaker 4: the Cowboys under Jason Garrett are two fourteen and one

1208
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 4: against the spread on a short week. It's essentially the

1209
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 4: dvance Joseph. He's advanced Joseph of short weeks.

1210
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 2: This is uh, this is horrible. I mean some of

1211
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:58,919
Speaker 2: that obviously is impacted by the Thanksgiving game, but yeah,

1212
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 2: this it's I mean, it doesn't speak well, it doesn't

1213
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:06,080
Speaker 2: speak well for him. For me, this is easily going

1214
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 2: with Philly yeah, I agree with you everything you said.

1215
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 2: It seems like this will be one of those vintage

1216
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 2: games where the Cowboys really get it handed to them.

1217
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 2: My question, I think almost like the bigger question is,

1218
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:19,359
Speaker 2: and my dog is barking, she agrees with me that

1219
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:21,800
Speaker 2: this is a bad game for the Cowboys. Does Jason

1220
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 2: Garrett get fired after this game? Let's imagine a world

1221
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 2: in which the Eagles win by let's say twenty points.

1222
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: Does Garrett finally lose his job after this game?

1223
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 4: I don't think so. But I think I think Jerry

1224
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 4: Jones has kind of been he's kind of been out

1225
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:37,799
Speaker 4: of it that he's not going to do that in

1226
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 4: the middle of the season. I think there's just going

1227
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 4: to be I think the chatter will just get louder.

1228
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 4: But the bottom line is this is this is a

1229
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:47,480
Speaker 4: good Eagles team that maybe hasn't quite hit it stride yet.

1230
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 4: I don't think you know, if you get blown out

1231
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 4: by the Eagles in the spot. As bad as it

1232
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 4: sounds coming off of that that loss against Tennessee, which

1233
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:55,399
Speaker 4: is really the game you had to have, I don't

1234
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 4: think it reflects is poorly on Garrett, just because I

1235
00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 4: think this is ay a quality foot team. So I

1236
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 4: don't think he gets fired after this game. I think

1237
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 4: you're just gonna kind of keep on seeing more of

1238
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 4: the same. I think they'll probably continue to force feed

1239
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 4: to Mark Cooper ball you at twenty five percent of

1240
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 4: the targets, thirty one percent of the air yards in

1241
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:14,840
Speaker 4: his first game in Philly. Even though they're up to

1242
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:17,360
Speaker 4: number seven in DVOA versus number one wide outs, they

1243
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 4: have been a lot better, they're still giving up the

1244
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 4: most scheduled, second most schedule adjusted yards to number ones

1245
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 4: in the league at ninety three point nine. So I

1246
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 4: think they're just gonna do that, and you know, Garrett's

1247
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 4: gona clap a little bit. They'll probably get blown out

1248
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 4: and you know, same shit different.

1249
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:36,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's Sunday Night football. So much for that, Chris,

1250
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: you're doing the Monday night came with I on our

1251
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 2: next show. Do you have any final thoughts? Let's get

1252
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 2: this money that is going to do it? For the

1253
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 2: Friday episode of the Action Network NFL podcast. Be sure

1254
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:48,480
Speaker 2: to rate, review, and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes.

1255
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 2: For Chris Raymond, I'm Matthew Friedman, Matt at the Oracle

1256
00:57:51,440 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 2: See Again. Next episode A fund