Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from my Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show.
Speaker 1: Now here's your host. It's another addition of Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: I am Paul Charch and co host after an extended absence,
Speaker 1: Matt Harrison, Welcome back to the show. You won't remember
Speaker 1: what it was. Wasn't that long. It's been like three weeks,
Speaker 1: so it feels like it's been longer than June when
Speaker 1: I was off traveling around the world, allivanting, allivantin Rather,
Speaker 1: we're toiling and fantasy football advice to the masses by
Speaker 1: around the world. Northern Wisconsin. Yeah, I will. It's like
Speaker 1: dialing back time. It really is. I went to this
Speaker 1: bar in Wisconsin, an Eagle River. It's called Tommy's Bar.
Speaker 1: It's very rarely open, but when the open signs on,
Speaker 1: you go in. Because we had my wife and I
Speaker 1: had six eight drinks between the two of us, eight
Speaker 1: bucks six. It's like, what, all right, that's fantastic. I
Speaker 1: love that the focus of today's show is make or
Speaker 1: break second year players sophomores who have not yet proven
Speaker 1: themselves to be fantasy starters. So first, why we're choosing
Speaker 1: the second year players just because I think by the
Speaker 1: end of your two you you pretty much know some
Speaker 1: players break out in your three and even less rarely
Speaker 1: year four. But you know usually by two years in
Speaker 1: you kind of no, yeah, and we're going make as
Speaker 1: in there they've made it breaking, they're broken, they're breaking bad,
Speaker 1: breaking bad. Yeah, there we go, so were But we're
Speaker 1: looking at these guys from a sophomore perspective, especially in
Speaker 1: dynasty and keeper leagues, looking at them going is their
Speaker 1: value about to go up? Or is it about to
Speaker 1: bottom out? And I think the dynasty empire angle here
Speaker 1: on on on this whole conversation is really really valuable.
Speaker 1: Is this second year players that we're going to talk about.
Speaker 1: Are they guys who want to try to acquire now
Speaker 1: before they have their make season, our guys who want
Speaker 1: to divest from before they have their break season. Um
Speaker 1: makes a ton of sense. Now, the kinds of guys
Speaker 1: who are not going to talk about our sophomores like
Speaker 1: Mac Jones, Patriots quarterback, because we know we already know
Speaker 1: he we already know what he's all about. I think
Speaker 1: I think we now know that mac Jones is a
Speaker 1: run of the mill starting NFL quarterback who's never going
Speaker 1: to have great fantasy upside. I agree, I think we
Speaker 1: know too much about him. But the other guys were
Speaker 1: gonna talking about a lot of times who don't know?
Speaker 1: And by make or break we mean from a fantasy perspective,
Speaker 1: not like, are you going to go to the Pro Bowl?
Speaker 1: You know Teddy Bridgewater went to the Pro Bowl. You
Speaker 1: know that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about, God,
Speaker 1: are you going to be fantasy relevant? Mac Jones could
Speaker 1: end up in a Pro Bowl? Too? Like four guys
Speaker 1: are like, I don't bother showing that the Pro Bowl?
Speaker 1: Where was it last year? Even did they have one?
Speaker 1: I don't even know. It's not it's so not important,
Speaker 1: it's so not important. I think it was in it was. Okay,
Speaker 1: So we're going to do quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers.
Speaker 1: Normally we would do tight ends here, but the only two,
Speaker 1: the only two tight ends that anybody had any faith
Speaker 1: in last year. Pitts and Friar both are obvious makes.
Speaker 1: They've already hit their's and every nobody else thought anybody
Speaker 1: else was going to do anything out of that draft class.
Speaker 1: So I don't think there's a quarterback or a tight
Speaker 1: end to talk about here. Let's start at the quarterback position, Matt. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we'll start with Trevor Lawrence, good old sunshine, and I
Speaker 1: think it's the make year for for Trevor Lawrence. Uh.
Speaker 1: It couldn't have gone worse last year. Uh, thirty six
Speaker 1: hundred yards, only twelve touchdowns versus seventeen picks. And by
Speaker 1: the way, he had three touchdown passes in Week one
Speaker 1: against Houston. For the final sixteen, he had the same
Speaker 1: amount of games in which he threw touchdown as games
Speaker 1: where he did not throw a touchdown. Touchdown, not a touchdown. Sure,
Speaker 1: I'm trying to you know, I'm trying to get that
Speaker 1: to catch on, like the Ohio State University, which they
Speaker 1: trademark exactly, they were trademarked v So he had and
Speaker 1: you couldn't have got a worse read for what was
Speaker 1: coming in week one that what Trevor Lawrence gave you,
Speaker 1: because at that point you're like a game on Trevor Lawrence. Yeah,
Speaker 1: absolutely got nine touchdowns the rest of the way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he only supported one yard game for a wide receiver
Speaker 1: last year, and why it all went wrong was basically,
Speaker 1: we're gonna pin it all on Urban Meyer. He was
Speaker 1: a disaster. He was a distraction the entire year until
Speaker 1: they fired him the end of November. They lost Travis e.
Speaker 1: T N before the season began. With Kwan Treadwell might
Speaker 1: have been his best wide receiver over the final month
Speaker 1: of the season. The old line was a mess. Outside
Speaker 1: of beating Buffalo randomly in the middle of the season,
Speaker 1: it was about a bad of a year as you
Speaker 1: could for the Jaguars. Now, why will it be a
Speaker 1: make year this year? Well, Doug Peterson, he's now the
Speaker 1: head coach. Jim Bob Cooter, who's my favorite name in
Speaker 1: the NFL, is now the offensive coordinating a minute, What
Speaker 1: better than Harry Colin? Yeah, Jim Bob Cooter? Yes, definitely,
Speaker 1: both lines. Can both guys have lines? Connection? There we go,
Speaker 1: I mean and and Jim Bob Cooter. You gotta say Cooter?
Speaker 1: Do you say Cootter? Do you say Bob Cooter? What? What?
Speaker 1: How do you what? Do you call? J B? Cooter?
Speaker 1: J B Cooter? As to his friends like me, j
Speaker 1: he ran a decent offense in Detroit for a while
Speaker 1: with Stafford there um, they had some key auditions Christian
Speaker 1: Kirk at wide receiver. He actually broke the wide receiver
Speaker 1: market thanks Christian Kirk's Jones has added there for some depth.
Speaker 1: Dan Arnold is back in Evan Engram make up the
Speaker 1: tight end corps now, so they have some fantasy upside.
Speaker 1: They added Brandon Schurff as a new right guard, which
Speaker 1: should improve that old line quite a bit just just
Speaker 1: with him there. And Lawrence passed over six hundred times
Speaker 1: last year he was in He was in the top
Speaker 1: ten for passing attempts, So I gotta think that it's
Speaker 1: just going to get better this year. He was the
Speaker 1: most clear cut number one quarterback to come out of
Speaker 1: the draft since Andrew Luck. And we shouldn't forget that
Speaker 1: the deck was just so stacked against him last year.
Speaker 1: The stability and the weapons that were added to the
Speaker 1: offense should be enough for him to be a very
Speaker 1: serviceable super flex quarterback this year. Yeah, this year, I
Speaker 1: think he's kind of a mid level QB two this year.
Speaker 1: You know, he's got better running ability than we saw
Speaker 1: last year as well, And my hope is that He'll
Speaker 1: get some designed runs um extended pockets that in which
Speaker 1: he touchdown. It's not too much trouble Trevor Lawrence. I'm
Speaker 1: with you on the on the make side of Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1: But we don't have to agree on all these. By
Speaker 1: the way, we may not agree with some of these.
Speaker 1: We might not. The next quarterback make or break sophomore
Speaker 1: quarterback is the Jets Zack Wilson, the number two pick
Speaker 1: in the draft, the number two pick in the draft,
Speaker 1: and I've got him as a make. It looked bad
Speaker 1: for Wilson for much of the year last year, typical
Speaker 1: rookie struggles at the beginning of the year. Then he
Speaker 1: had a knee injury that knocked him out for over
Speaker 1: a month. But everything changed right around Thanksgiving. Prior to that,
Speaker 1: he had posted just two games with double digit Fantasy points.
Speaker 1: After Thanksgiving, every game was double digit Fantasy points for
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson. The play clearly got better. It doesn't always
Speaker 1: showed in the box scores, though, so I'm no Warren.
Speaker 1: You if you just like go to the Zach Wilson
Speaker 1: box score and pull it up, you're not going to
Speaker 1: see like this epic change in box. You're not overwhelmed
Speaker 1: by yards and three touchdowns, and no you don't. There
Speaker 1: was very little that, but I test you look better.
Speaker 1: PFF grades got at least a little bit better, and
Speaker 1: he started connecting on deep balls. In his first five
Speaker 1: full games when he's really struggling, he had almost two
Speaker 1: picks per game. But during that second half of the
Speaker 1: season again and Thanksgiving forward, when he came back from
Speaker 1: the injury, he cut it down from two picks a
Speaker 1: game to zero point three picks per game and just
Speaker 1: two interceptions in the final seven games. Massive improvement in
Speaker 1: the interceptions. Wilson's deep ball was very promising, um as
Speaker 1: was the downfield connection with Elijah Moore, who just went
Speaker 1: on a rampage after Wilson came back. He averaged six catches,
Speaker 1: seventies seven yards and one touchdown until he bowed out
Speaker 1: with injury in December. So there was a really nice
Speaker 1: budding connection with Elijah more who many people are very
Speaker 1: high on now. Also, Zack Wilson gained first rounder Garrett
Speaker 1: Wilson in the draft. He gained second rounder Bruce Hall
Speaker 1: in the draft. And where does it sounds the Jets
Speaker 1: offensive personnel and totality is actually pretty good at this Yeah,
Speaker 1: it looks pretty great. I mean, you know, in addition
Speaker 1: to Elijah More we know is good. Garrett Wilson should
Speaker 1: be good, Breece Hallo should be good. You've also got
Speaker 1: Corey Davis, Braxon Barrios there and what should be an
Speaker 1: improved Al Davis is a serviceable number receiver and he
Speaker 1: might be the wide receiver one on that team. Still
Speaker 1: just in target share, but he's gonna be just fine.
Speaker 1: Accuracy was a huge problem for Wilson last year, the
Speaker 1: bottom of the league accuracy completion rates. But it's here's
Speaker 1: why it should get better for Wilson. The stuff he
Speaker 1: missed was the short stuff where he's where he had
Speaker 1: the big delta between himself and the other quarterbacks were
Speaker 1: behind the line of scrimmage and less than ten yard passes.
Speaker 1: Does that make you worried about Yips? No, not yet. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not there yet. I'm not calling him
Speaker 1: to be at this point, So roll that together. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of reasons for optim isn't on Wilson the
Speaker 1: way he finished last year. The talent around him should
Speaker 1: get better in year number two. I've got to make
Speaker 1: on Zach Wilson. How do you have a make or
Speaker 1: a break on Zach Wilson. I agree with you. I
Speaker 1: think that he's going to have a much improved year.
Speaker 1: Make let's go to San Francisco quarterback Tray Lance. Do
Speaker 1: you have a make or break on him? We might
Speaker 1: to diverge here. I'm usually a pessimist on running quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: and I'll keep that trend going and say that this
Speaker 1: is going to be the break year for Trey Lance.
Speaker 1: As of this recording of the podcast, Jimmy Garoppolo is
Speaker 1: still on the team. The Niners could cut him for
Speaker 1: almost no dead cap. They could solve a lot of issues,
Speaker 1: They could sign Debo long term. They could just cut
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo. But they haven't. Well, they'll trade him. They
Speaker 1: won't cut him. I don't think that they're going to
Speaker 1: trade him. There's really not that many partners left out there.
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield was just Delta Carolina, so they're off the board.
Speaker 1: But why they won't cut him, I think is because
Speaker 1: you just wait for some team that thinks it's have
Speaker 1: a going enough a good season and could have their
Speaker 1: quarterback get hurt, and now you've got a lot of
Speaker 1: value in Jimmy Garoppolo. Right now, there is only one
Speaker 1: trade partner of Seattle and they're in division and they're
Speaker 1: probably not going that. Maybe maybe the Saints, but probably not.
Speaker 1: So if they're in division, you're right, so that's probably
Speaker 1: not gonna happen. Although if they really don't believe in
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo, that could be just sabotaged. Well, what if
Speaker 1: they really don't believe in Tray Lance? That's the other thing. Um,
Speaker 1: Jimmy g is still on the roster. I have a
Speaker 1: sneaking suspicion that the forty Niners are not quite ready
Speaker 1: to hand the full reins full time to Tray Lance.
Speaker 1: With a shredded shoulder last year, they kept Jimmy is
Speaker 1: a little strong. He had it hanging from a tendon.
Speaker 1: It was just dangling there. They kept him in throughout
Speaker 1: the playoffs and he led them to a conference championship game.
Speaker 1: And head coaches are creatures of habit. They go at
Speaker 1: the guy that got them there. Shanahan and Garoppolo, the
Speaker 1: long history together. And on Lance, we saw the rushing
Speaker 1: ability on display and his three starts last season, but
Speaker 1: the passing was if he at best. All the reports
Speaker 1: out of the off season program is Lance is ready,
Speaker 1: Jerry Rice, and Steve Young, they're all believers. They think
Speaker 1: he's the next guy. But you never hear bad reports
Speaker 1: in June or July. And who cares what former players
Speaker 1: that aren't really in camp think about this. Uh. The
Speaker 1: Niners admittedly don't rely heavily on quarterback production to get
Speaker 1: things done in their offense. Over the last five years,
Speaker 1: mostly with Garoppolo, they finished in the bottom half the
Speaker 1: league in QB Fantasy points in four out of five years.
Speaker 1: The Niners deploy a high efficiency passing game, though, and
Speaker 1: Jimmy G's that's because of what Jimmy G brought to
Speaker 1: the table. They were catering that offense to his strengths. Well,
Speaker 1: he's a sixty percent passer over the last three years.
Speaker 1: That's very good. Uh. And they let their playmakers make plays.
Speaker 1: They let Devo move downfield. Now, Lance was only fifty
Speaker 1: seven percent on his passes last year. Fifty seven percent
Speaker 1: is not good. And if Shanahan sees it that way,
Speaker 1: and they're looking at a big downtick eleven percent downtick,
Speaker 1: that makes them one dimensional, That makes them a running team.
Speaker 1: That makes people key off on where's deebo in the backfield?
Speaker 1: Where's Trey Lance going? We can we can cover these
Speaker 1: guys because we don't believe in his arm. I've been
Speaker 1: completely wrong on running quarterbacks before. I hope I'm wrong again,
Speaker 1: but I'm not drafting Trey Lance at all this year.
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be wrong. I think running the
Speaker 1: running numbers are going to keep him fantasy relevant even
Speaker 1: when his arm is developing and learning earning to use
Speaker 1: the gigantic arm that he's got. Right, I think the
Speaker 1: upside is Hurts this year. Jalen Hurts was quarterback six
Speaker 1: in fantasy last year. You know that's we'll take that upside.
Speaker 1: So we had you didn't hear it to you're on
Speaker 1: vacation last week. Last week we took we detailed Trey
Speaker 1: Lances a we're doing uh all or nothing players, you
Speaker 1: know that sort of sentiment, and he is. He's Trey
Speaker 1: Lance is an all or nothing guy. If things go wrong,
Speaker 1: he's not the starting quarterback. If things go right, he's
Speaker 1: running for ninety yards a game, and he's you know,
Speaker 1: then he chips in two passing yards and one or
Speaker 1: two passing touchdowns and and you've got a top five quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: so things can go very right or wrong for him.
Speaker 1: I'm on break. I'm on the make side of Trey
Speaker 1: Land and I'm on the break side. Let's do one
Speaker 1: more quarterback make or break with Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
Speaker 1: I am firmly in the break. Let me make my
Speaker 1: case for you. Man. There's a center it out there
Speaker 1: that fields automatically get better under Matt Eberflus and offensive
Speaker 1: coordinator Luke Getsy because Nag he's gone. But is that deserved?
Speaker 1: Eberflus is a defensive coordinator issue, so I don't see
Speaker 1: a big effect here. And one of Getsy's NFL experience
Speaker 1: is with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. No problem, there
Speaker 1: is no comparison between these two Aaron Rodgers and Justin
Speaker 1: Fields and Fields passing last year was straight up dreadful.
Speaker 1: Second lowest completion percentage next next Gen stats marked him
Speaker 1: with the second worst expected completion percentage, and he was
Speaker 1: particularly bad when pressured, with a p F grade dropping
Speaker 1: in half from pressured plays to clean pocket place. It's
Speaker 1: totally unable to handle pressure. Under pressure, he through just
Speaker 1: two touchdowns all of last year For Justin Fields. Intangibly
Speaker 1: to me, Fields never looked comfortable in the pocket, and frustratingly,
Speaker 1: Naggie didn't give him enough looks outside the pocket. I'd
Speaker 1: had a lot of design to plays for Justin Fields,
Speaker 1: to get him out of the plot a pocket, let
Speaker 1: him run or pass on the run. He was asked
Speaker 1: to do that very very little last year. Maybe that
Speaker 1: comes together this year, and I wish I could give
Speaker 1: you reasons to believe in Fields and to believe he's
Speaker 1: gonna get better. But Matt, the offensive line doesn't look
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be any better. Almost no changes Byron Pringles,
Speaker 1: the best receiver of the team brought in and their
Speaker 1: third round wide receiver draft pick Vellis Jones is widely
Speaker 1: viewed as one of the worst reaches in the entire draft. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's a kick returner, he's a special teamer. So if
Speaker 1: you draft Fields, it's really with the hope that Eberflus
Speaker 1: and gets he run him and run him a lot
Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson level of consistency as a runner. It
Speaker 1: would have to be like twenty carries a game kind
Speaker 1: of a thing, because it feels like these Bears are
Speaker 1: gonna try to win games thirteen to seven with the
Speaker 1: defense that shed like everybody you know by the way
Speaker 1: it's it's it's kind of a bizarre team. It looked
Speaker 1: like the Bears could be bottoming out here. I think
Speaker 1: the Bears are bottoming out and I don't. I don't
Speaker 1: for a lot of reasons. So you're with me. It
Speaker 1: sounds like on Justin Fields is a break player I am.
Speaker 1: I want to add in one more quarterback as an
Speaker 1: able mension here. How about Davis Mills. Because of the
Speaker 1: quarterbacks we mentioned before this, Mills had the most touchdowns
Speaker 1: with sixteen played in thirteen games last year, had four
Speaker 1: games five multiple touchdown games. Only Jeff Driskell and Kyle
Speaker 1: Allen pushing him. That's nothing. He's a starter. So I'm
Speaker 1: very bullish on Mills because if he breaks, he's out
Speaker 1: of a job. The Texans are going to draft his
Speaker 1: replacement next year if he doesn't look awesome this year.
Speaker 1: So I kind of think that he's got a shot
Speaker 1: here I showed I guess I tipped my hand and
Speaker 1: how I feel about Davis Mills by not including him
Speaker 1: in this list, because I already think he's kind of
Speaker 1: proven himself to be better than all the other guys.
Speaker 1: So we talked about he's being drafted after all of
Speaker 1: these guys. I think it's a mistake. I think that
Speaker 1: everybody on this show, you, Me, Brian and Scott, all
Speaker 1: of us kind of like Davids Mills more than the
Speaker 1: average person does out. So I you know, I just
Speaker 1: I think Davis. I thought Davis Mills played admirably when
Speaker 1: given the opportunity to do so. And I think there's
Speaker 1: a than anti Houston bias amongst a lot of fantasy
Speaker 1: players that view the whole view it as a dysfunctional
Speaker 1: landing place for anybody. Well, they got to score points
Speaker 1: because their defense is gonna be very good and they're
Speaker 1: gonna be behind. They're gonna be chucking at Yolo style
Speaker 1: the whole season. They did last year too, And David S.
Speaker 1: Mills you still had. You can only start from time
Speaker 1: to time, but probably gets better year to remember, I
Speaker 1: think only thirteen starts in college and so and maybe
Speaker 1: the thirteen numbers in my head because you had because
Speaker 1: you played you mentioned he played in didn't start thirteen
Speaker 1: last year, by the way, had to come in as
Speaker 1: a replacement for Tyrod Taylor a few times. Let's take
Speaker 1: a break. When we come back, make or break running
Speaker 1: backs and wide receivers. When we returned to Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. This is a make or
Speaker 1: Breaks sophomore edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. All Charging and
Speaker 1: Matt Harrison with you. You can check out Matt Matt's
Speaker 1: work at Shock Fantasy dot com. You've got your Shock
Speaker 1: Fantasy hat. I'm loading up a whole bunch of cheat
Speaker 1: sheets this weekend to we're getting going, uh finally, Draft season.
Speaker 1: Here we go. Let's go to the running back position,
Speaker 1: and I want to start with Philadelphia running back Kenneth Gainwell.
Speaker 1: Do you believe this is a make or break season
Speaker 1: for him? I kind of forgot about Kenny Gainwell, like admittedly,
Speaker 1: like just off my radar um. But so this was
Speaker 1: kind of fun because I got to dig back into him.
Speaker 1: And for the sake of the argument, I'm gonna call
Speaker 1: it a make year for Kenny Gainwell, but not in
Speaker 1: the way that he suddenly becomes a always starting running
Speaker 1: back in fantasy. I think he's going to be a
Speaker 1: serviceable flex play here and there. Um, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of things working against him, but there were glimmers of hope.
Speaker 1: In his rookie year. First, he scored six more touchdowns
Speaker 1: than Miles Sanders at zero. Five of those six were
Speaker 1: on the ground. That's a good thing. Um. Boston Scott
Speaker 1: inexplicably was the inside the five runner for Philadelphia, a
Speaker 1: guy who's not built for that, had seven touchdowns on
Speaker 1: ten attempts. Miles Sanders had five rushing attempts inside the
Speaker 1: five last year, with zero touched out and negative one
Speaker 1: yard negative five yard average, never one, negative one. Um
Speaker 1: Gamewell was only given two attempts inside the five, but
Speaker 1: he did score on one, so that's a good thing.
Speaker 1: You know, Boston Scott is not built to be a
Speaker 1: goal lineback. No, No, I just I can't believe that
Speaker 1: they're gonna keep using Boston Scott there, although he was
Speaker 1: fairly effective in that role. He was, but you know,
Speaker 1: Boston Scott could be one of those cap casualties as
Speaker 1: they come closer to camp, like maybe they don't need
Speaker 1: a veteran guy like that. Who knows. But the second
Speaker 1: thing that I really liked about Gainwell, he was the
Speaker 1: most utilized running back in the passing game for Philadelphia
Speaker 1: last year, and that's kind of where you think Boston
Speaker 1: Scott would kind of flex into there. But it was
Speaker 1: Gainwell more targets and receptions than Sanders, who was on
Speaker 1: the field a lot more more targets and receptions than Scott,
Speaker 1: whose primary role should be the pass catching back. So
Speaker 1: give me the most efficient running back in the passing game,
Speaker 1: a guy who could feasibly steal the goal line role
Speaker 1: from Boston Scott. To me, that's a flexworthy runner. But
Speaker 1: the problem is is we need consistency and touches. He
Speaker 1: needs ten to fifteen touches a game to be interesting.
Speaker 1: In the last six games the last season, seventeen touches
Speaker 1: zero one zero, sixteen six. That's wild usage. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it's it's crazy. So I don't know if that's a
Speaker 1: coaching philosophy. There could have been injury injuries to to
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders here and there. But Kenneth Gainwell is an
Speaker 1: interesting guy. He looked good when he had the ability
Speaker 1: to get the touches. So I'll say make Yeah, I
Speaker 1: I like, do you challenge yourself to make a make
Speaker 1: out of that? But I don't. I don't know that
Speaker 1: I can go there. Um, I'm I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: Travis at the end as our next runner, Jacksonville running back,
Speaker 1: I've got to make on him. It feels obvious now,
Speaker 1: but let's just talk it through and I don't have
Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time, and it's gonna think
Speaker 1: everybody's everybody's interested in him. But I've got a real
Speaker 1: angle near the end of this that you'll want to
Speaker 1: listen to. That's very important. I think, UM, as you've
Speaker 1: detailed on previous shows, James Robinson's return is very much
Speaker 1: in doubt and way more than people are talking about.
Speaker 1: Cam Akers look terrible when he returned from his achilles injury.
Speaker 1: Robinson suffered this injury late December. UM no running back
Speaker 1: has ever returned from an achilles injury to have a
Speaker 1: meaningful running back career, So there's a lot of reasons
Speaker 1: to be very nervous about James Robinson, and especially early
Speaker 1: in the season. Et Tiens. Liz frank injury happened mid
Speaker 1: August last year, so by week one he's gonna be
Speaker 1: over one year removed from it, so that foot should
Speaker 1: really be okay. Liz Frank's um injuries have had a
Speaker 1: lot of variation and outcome of how that's affected players,
Speaker 1: but it's gotten better over the past few years. Um As,
Speaker 1: I think we've handled the break better medically than we
Speaker 1: used to. Doug Peterson can manufactures throws to his backs,
Speaker 1: and in some cases throughout Doug Peterson's career, he's done
Speaker 1: that in his backs combined for eighty five catches and
Speaker 1: eight hundred yards. But I'll note that a lot of
Speaker 1: the time, a lot of other seasons, Doug Peterson's backs
Speaker 1: haven't done that. But they also it's also really been
Speaker 1: buying large when Miles Sanders was healthy, and when he
Speaker 1: wasn't healthy, and when he was on roster and he
Speaker 1: wasn't um And Etienne was a phenomenal pass catcher in
Speaker 1: college at Clemson, So you know, the hope is that's
Speaker 1: going to happen here too. I think I think at
Speaker 1: worst at ten should be a big PPR force. But
Speaker 1: Etian in college was never work horse back. He I
Speaker 1: don't believe he's going to be a workhorse back in
Speaker 1: this offense either, but they will use him through the
Speaker 1: air a lot, I think. I see. Tell me if
Speaker 1: you think there's a common box score for Ettian ten
Speaker 1: rushes for let's say four and a half yards, forty
Speaker 1: five yards um, five receptions for another forty five yards,
Speaker 1: and a coin flips chance that a touchdown one way
Speaker 1: or another in most games. Sound about right, sounds fair.
Speaker 1: Etian was never a goal line guy, has never been
Speaker 1: a big goal line guy, and he's not a big
Speaker 1: bodied guy. I want to put Snoop Connor on your radar,
Speaker 1: so if you believe me that James Robinson's return is
Speaker 1: very much in doubt and his his abilities are very
Speaker 1: much in doubt, Snoop Robinson was a fifth rounder that
Speaker 1: they took, Snoop Connor. Snoop Connor, thank you who they took.
Speaker 1: And he he is a bona fide goal line guy.
Speaker 1: In college, he was used express sleep as a goal
Speaker 1: line guy. Wasn't a workhorse guy, but he got tons
Speaker 1: of He got tons of hard yards um. He was
Speaker 1: very good. He a shocking number of like ten twelve
Speaker 1: fifteen yard chunk plays. Doesn't have the long speed to
Speaker 1: give you like you know, rip off sixty yards, but
Speaker 1: chunk gains and workhorse chunk gains and goal line ability.
Speaker 1: Snoop Connor thunder and lightning. Here. If you want a deep,
Speaker 1: deep sleeper and a guy that could lead the Jaguars
Speaker 1: and rushing touchdowns. Snoop Connor anyway, I gotta make on
Speaker 1: Travis Sten Yeah, I'm with you. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: wide receiver position beginning with Giants sophomore Darius Tony. It
Speaker 1: seems easy ish, but I'm gonna call it a break
Speaker 1: for Cadarius Tony. He was really the wrong draft pick
Speaker 1: last year for Dave Gettleman, who has now gone. The
Speaker 1: new regime has absolutely no ties to Tony. They were
Speaker 1: a rumored to already be shopping him near the draft.
Speaker 1: Why they still have Kenny Golladay under a massive contract,
Speaker 1: Sterling Shepherd still there. They drafted another slot guy, wan
Speaker 1: Dale Robinson in the second round, basically to replace Cadarius Tony.
Speaker 1: If you google Caldarius Tony, the first thing that pops
Speaker 1: up is where is Caldarius Tony? Now? Where is he
Speaker 1: right now? Where is he? Where in the world is Tony? Uh?
Speaker 1: He had minor offseason knee surgery. There's a lot of
Speaker 1: questions about his character. Is a big dedication to the game. Uh.
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones in his final year in New Jersey. It
Speaker 1: seems like this offense is just starting a two to
Speaker 1: three year rebuild under new head coach Brian Dable. Uh.
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna build a completely different offense than
Speaker 1: we've seen under the previous regime. And the Giants wide
Speaker 1: receivers as a group with Daniel Jones, guess how many
Speaker 1: touchdowns they had as an entire group had one or zero?
Speaker 1: Shepherd had like two. Tony might have scored one time.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go five. You got the number right, but
Speaker 1: Tony didn't score. Okay, five touchdowns for the Giants wide
Speaker 1: receivers as a whole last yearly bad. I think Cadarius
Speaker 1: Tony might be looking at being the fourth or fifth
Speaker 1: wide receiver in this and then Daniel Jones. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: offense gross. I don't like it at all. I'm with
Speaker 1: you on break on Tony. I wish you were different
Speaker 1: because he does flash unbelievable. Stop. Yeah, he had that
Speaker 1: one game last year he had ten catches and everybody like, wow,
Speaker 1: he looked amazing, and then he's like, I don't really
Speaker 1: want to play football. Unbelievable. Um. I do think the
Speaker 1: Giant's offense gets better, but I don't think the pivot
Speaker 1: guy on that is gonna be Cadarius Tony. No, it'll
Speaker 1: be next year when they when they draft a new
Speaker 1: quarterback and they start over there. I hope, I hope
Speaker 1: for jan Daniel jones sake. You're wrong, and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna run Daniel Jones a lot more than people realize. Well,
Speaker 1: I hope he doesn't fall down about downfield. If he
Speaker 1: gets thirty yards down field, it's not bad. Um. All right,
Speaker 1: Let's go to our second wide receiver sophomore, and that's
Speaker 1: Baltimore receiver Rashad Bateman, who I have a make one.
Speaker 1: Despite a disappointing rookie season, Ravens doubled down on Rashad Bateman.
Speaker 1: Team didn't put a single draft pick into the position,
Speaker 1: they didn't add any free agents, and they lost Marcus
Speaker 1: Brown mark Uh. Bateman's biggest threat for targets is Devin DuVernay.
Speaker 1: He barely counts those. Biggest threat for targets is probably
Speaker 1: wide receiver. It's j K Dobbins and that receiver. Yes,
Speaker 1: Bateman scored just once last year, and even his snap
Speaker 1: count really spiked up in the final month of the season.
Speaker 1: The production yards the catches didn't move with it. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: the best reason for optimism here in the four games
Speaker 1: that Bateman played with eight or more targets which he
Speaker 1: could get on a regular basis. This year eight Moore targets,
Speaker 1: he averaged a rock solid seventy three yards. And it
Speaker 1: comes together for a lot of receivers in year two.
Speaker 1: Opportunity Trump's talent. We talked about all the time in
Speaker 1: fantasy football. Opportunity is more important than talent, getting the
Speaker 1: ball at the goal line, getting eight getting eight targets
Speaker 1: a game. That's more important than being the next Barry Sanders.
Speaker 1: With the opportunity factor, though, are you just slightly nervous
Speaker 1: that John Harbaugh's offense and Lamar Jackson's offense just doesn't
Speaker 1: favor wide receivers and and and it's been I mean,
Speaker 1: Marquis Brown had some splashes here and there, but wildly
Speaker 1: and consistent and tough to start him on a weekly
Speaker 1: basis over the last few years. And all right, so
Speaker 1: let's all yours a good point. Let me define what
Speaker 1: I think where I think Bateman ends up this year
Speaker 1: around eighty catches, a thousand yards and seven touchdowns. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's all right, you know, I think that's you know,
Speaker 1: I think that's the best. I think that's a receiver yeah.
Speaker 1: If that's if he plays all year, assuming he plays
Speaker 1: the full season as the number one receiver on his team,
Speaker 1: wide receiver on his team, I think that's where he
Speaker 1: could end up. Well, they only scored ten touchdowns as
Speaker 1: a wide receiver group last year, so that might be
Speaker 1: a little a little aggressive. I think he's probably I
Speaker 1: would guess he finishes kind of around Brandon Aiyuk Tyler
Speaker 1: Boyd did last year sixty seventy catches, eight hundred yards,
Speaker 1: five touchdowns. So you're on break or make? Is that
Speaker 1: a break right for you? I mean, I think it's
Speaker 1: still a make, but I think it's just a yeah. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's move on to Ron Dell Moore, Arizona wide receiver
Speaker 1: Ron del Moore? Is he a make or break? He's
Speaker 1: breaking for me? He's breaking out of Arizona hopefully. Um.
Speaker 1: I think you had the stat in the show we
Speaker 1: did you know last time I was on, which must
Speaker 1: have been like three years ago, because yeah, because you've
Speaker 1: been on vacation for three years. Um, Rondale Moore's average
Speaker 1: depth of target one one yard your heart and the
Speaker 1: next closest was four yards. Yeah, and plus that, I
Speaker 1: mean in my mind and probably your mind. He's fifth
Speaker 1: on the wide receiver depth chart in Arizona, behind DeAndre
Speaker 1: Hopkins when he gets back from his suspension, Marquis Brown,
Speaker 1: A J. Green, and Antoine Wesley. I think so because
Speaker 1: you and I are well, you know I feel about Antoine, yes,
Speaker 1: but also ed In zach Ertz and Max Williams. I
Speaker 1: think he's eighth in the pecking order. You want to
Speaker 1: be eighth in a pecking order. No, I don't want
Speaker 1: that guy on my team. He's just a gadget guy
Speaker 1: in Cliff Kingsbury's offense, hence the depth of target. He's
Speaker 1: too small to be a red zone threat. You're reliant
Speaker 1: on more breaking a huge touchdown. He did one last year.
Speaker 1: One touchdown he was in completely blown coverage against the Vikings.
Speaker 1: That was it. He should not be on rosters in
Speaker 1: fantasy this year. He's a hardcore break for me, hardcore
Speaker 1: break all right, Um, I'm with you on the break
Speaker 1: on Rondel Moore. Nico Collins is next sophomore wide receiver
Speaker 1: for Houston. Finished second on the team and receptions and
Speaker 1: receiving ards last year, but it didn't amount to much
Speaker 1: of anything. Texans used his big body on slants and
Speaker 1: the middle of the field routes other than Cooper Cup.
Speaker 1: That is a very tricky part to get fantasy relevance
Speaker 1: from in the middle of the field because usually you
Speaker 1: get tackled quickly in the middle of the field, so
Speaker 1: you don't get the big plays, you don't get the touchdowns.
Speaker 1: So you know that part didn't help Nico Collins last year.
Speaker 1: He was the starter for the team in six of
Speaker 1: the final seven games, but it didn't turn into an
Speaker 1: uptick and production for Nico Collins. What does starter even
Speaker 1: mean anymore? It just means on the field of first
Speaker 1: play that's important is more important. UM low catch rate
Speaker 1: UH fifty four percent catch rate, but that was largely
Speaker 1: the function of him being a rookie catching passes from
Speaker 1: a rookie. I think that gets better this year. UM.
Speaker 1: They drafted John um Mecchi, who's coming up at January
Speaker 1: a c l. He won't be a factor for UH
Speaker 1: until Halloween or later, and Nico Collins is gonna start.
Speaker 1: And I think if you believe like we do, as
Speaker 1: we talked earlier about Davids S Mills, like David Mills,
Speaker 1: I think you need to probably like his number two
Speaker 1: receiver to get a little better Nico Collins. Big bodied
Speaker 1: guys should be more of an enzo and target than
Speaker 1: he was last year. And so I've got to I've
Speaker 1: got a cautious make on Nico Collins. I still don't
Speaker 1: think he's going to get anywhere near the numbers that
Speaker 1: Brishade Bateman just had as the number one for the Ravens.
Speaker 1: But I can see Nico Collins finishing with seven hundred
Speaker 1: yards five touchdowns, and he's he's somebody we're going to
Speaker 1: have I think as a as a fairly regular take
Speaker 1: a chance on me wide receiver. Yeah, and Collins had
Speaker 1: two thirds of the snaps basically over the last half
Speaker 1: of the season. Okay, so he was basically a starter. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: we'll take that. Uh. Thank you, Matt, great job, Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening. Everybody appreciate as always getting to the end
Speaker 1: of the podcast, and those who take time to subscribe,
Speaker 1: rate review the show. Always grateful. You can get my
Speaker 1: cheat sheet for free UH at Guillotine leagues dot com
Speaker 1: and check out the Guillotine League of your choice. Four
Speaker 1: ways to play Private League's High Stakes League, Regular Guillotine League,
Speaker 1: and now Zombie Mode. Talk to you in a week. Everybody.
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I heart Radio.
Speaker 1: For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i
Speaker 1: heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you listen to
Speaker 1: your favorite shows. H