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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.

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Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from my Heart Radio,

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Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,

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Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show.

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Speaker 1: Now here's your host. It's another addition of Fantasy Football Weekly.

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Speaker 1: I am Paul Charch and co host after an extended absence,

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Speaker 1: Matt Harrison, Welcome back to the show. You won't remember

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Speaker 1: what it was. Wasn't that long. It's been like three weeks,

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Speaker 1: so it feels like it's been longer than June when

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Speaker 1: I was off traveling around the world, allivanting, allivantin Rather,

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Speaker 1: we're toiling and fantasy football advice to the masses by

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Speaker 1: around the world. Northern Wisconsin. Yeah, I will. It's like

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Speaker 1: dialing back time. It really is. I went to this

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Speaker 1: bar in Wisconsin, an Eagle River. It's called Tommy's Bar.

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Speaker 1: It's very rarely open, but when the open signs on,

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Speaker 1: you go in. Because we had my wife and I

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Speaker 1: had six eight drinks between the two of us, eight

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Speaker 1: bucks six. It's like, what, all right, that's fantastic. I

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Speaker 1: love that the focus of today's show is make or

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Speaker 1: break second year players sophomores who have not yet proven

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Speaker 1: themselves to be fantasy starters. So first, why we're choosing

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Speaker 1: the second year players just because I think by the

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Speaker 1: end of your two you you pretty much know some

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Speaker 1: players break out in your three and even less rarely

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Speaker 1: year four. But you know usually by two years in

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Speaker 1: you kind of no, yeah, and we're going make as

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Speaker 1: in there they've made it breaking, they're broken, they're breaking bad,

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Speaker 1: breaking bad. Yeah, there we go, so were But we're

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Speaker 1: looking at these guys from a sophomore perspective, especially in

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Speaker 1: dynasty and keeper leagues, looking at them going is their

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Speaker 1: value about to go up? Or is it about to

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Speaker 1: bottom out? And I think the dynasty empire angle here

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Speaker 1: on on on this whole conversation is really really valuable.

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Speaker 1: Is this second year players that we're going to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Are they guys who want to try to acquire now

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Speaker 1: before they have their make season, our guys who want

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Speaker 1: to divest from before they have their break season. Um

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Speaker 1: makes a ton of sense. Now, the kinds of guys

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Speaker 1: who are not going to talk about our sophomores like

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones, Patriots quarterback, because we know we already know

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Speaker 1: he we already know what he's all about. I think

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Speaker 1: I think we now know that mac Jones is a

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Speaker 1: run of the mill starting NFL quarterback who's never going

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Speaker 1: to have great fantasy upside. I agree, I think we

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Speaker 1: know too much about him. But the other guys were

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Speaker 1: gonna talking about a lot of times who don't know?

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Speaker 1: And by make or break we mean from a fantasy perspective,

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Speaker 1: not like, are you going to go to the Pro Bowl?

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Speaker 1: You know Teddy Bridgewater went to the Pro Bowl. You

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Speaker 1: know that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about, God,

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Speaker 1: are you going to be fantasy relevant? Mac Jones could

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Speaker 1: end up in a Pro Bowl? Too? Like four guys

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Speaker 1: are like, I don't bother showing that the Pro Bowl?

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Speaker 1: Where was it last year? Even did they have one?

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Speaker 1: I don't even know. It's not it's so not important,

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Speaker 1: it's so not important. I think it was in it was. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we're going to do quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: Normally we would do tight ends here, but the only two,

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Speaker 1: the only two tight ends that anybody had any faith

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Speaker 1: in last year. Pitts and Friar both are obvious makes.

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Speaker 1: They've already hit their's and every nobody else thought anybody

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Speaker 1: else was going to do anything out of that draft class.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think there's a quarterback or a tight

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Speaker 1: end to talk about here. Let's start at the quarterback position, Matt. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we'll start with Trevor Lawrence, good old sunshine, and I

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Speaker 1: think it's the make year for for Trevor Lawrence. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It couldn't have gone worse last year. Uh, thirty six

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Speaker 1: hundred yards, only twelve touchdowns versus seventeen picks. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, he had three touchdown passes in Week one

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Speaker 1: against Houston. For the final sixteen, he had the same

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Speaker 1: amount of games in which he threw touchdown as games

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Speaker 1: where he did not throw a touchdown. Touchdown, not a touchdown. Sure,

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to you know, I'm trying to get that

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Speaker 1: to catch on, like the Ohio State University, which they

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Speaker 1: trademark exactly, they were trademarked v So he had and

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Speaker 1: you couldn't have got a worse read for what was

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Speaker 1: coming in week one that what Trevor Lawrence gave you,

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Speaker 1: because at that point you're like a game on Trevor Lawrence. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: absolutely got nine touchdowns the rest of the way. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he only supported one yard game for a wide receiver

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Speaker 1: last year, and why it all went wrong was basically,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna pin it all on Urban Meyer. He was

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Speaker 1: a disaster. He was a distraction the entire year until

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Speaker 1: they fired him the end of November. They lost Travis e.

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Speaker 1: T N before the season began. With Kwan Treadwell might

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Speaker 1: have been his best wide receiver over the final month

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Speaker 1: of the season. The old line was a mess. Outside

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Speaker 1: of beating Buffalo randomly in the middle of the season,

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Speaker 1: it was about a bad of a year as you

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Speaker 1: could for the Jaguars. Now, why will it be a

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Speaker 1: make year this year? Well, Doug Peterson, he's now the

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Speaker 1: head coach. Jim Bob Cooter, who's my favorite name in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, is now the offensive coordinating a minute, What

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Speaker 1: better than Harry Colin? Yeah, Jim Bob Cooter? Yes, definitely,

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Speaker 1: both lines. Can both guys have lines? Connection? There we go,

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Speaker 1: I mean and and Jim Bob Cooter. You gotta say Cooter?

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Speaker 1: Do you say Cootter? Do you say Bob Cooter? What? What?

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Speaker 1: How do you what? Do you call? J B? Cooter?

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Speaker 1: J B Cooter? As to his friends like me, j

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Speaker 1: he ran a decent offense in Detroit for a while

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Speaker 1: with Stafford there um, they had some key auditions Christian

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Speaker 1: Kirk at wide receiver. He actually broke the wide receiver

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Speaker 1: market thanks Christian Kirk's Jones has added there for some depth.

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Speaker 1: Dan Arnold is back in Evan Engram make up the

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Speaker 1: tight end corps now, so they have some fantasy upside.

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Speaker 1: They added Brandon Schurff as a new right guard, which

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Speaker 1: should improve that old line quite a bit just just

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Speaker 1: with him there. And Lawrence passed over six hundred times

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Speaker 1: last year he was in He was in the top

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Speaker 1: ten for passing attempts, So I gotta think that it's

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Speaker 1: just going to get better this year. He was the

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Speaker 1: most clear cut number one quarterback to come out of

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Speaker 1: the draft since Andrew Luck. And we shouldn't forget that

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Speaker 1: the deck was just so stacked against him last year.

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Speaker 1: The stability and the weapons that were added to the

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Speaker 1: offense should be enough for him to be a very

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Speaker 1: serviceable super flex quarterback this year. Yeah, this year, I

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Speaker 1: think he's kind of a mid level QB two this year.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's got better running ability than we saw

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Speaker 1: last year as well, And my hope is that He'll

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Speaker 1: get some designed runs um extended pockets that in which

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Speaker 1: he touchdown. It's not too much trouble Trevor Lawrence. I'm

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Speaker 1: with you on the on the make side of Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: But we don't have to agree on all these. By

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Speaker 1: the way, we may not agree with some of these.

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Speaker 1: We might not. The next quarterback make or break sophomore

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Speaker 1: quarterback is the Jets Zack Wilson, the number two pick

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Speaker 1: in the draft, the number two pick in the draft,

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Speaker 1: and I've got him as a make. It looked bad

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Speaker 1: for Wilson for much of the year last year, typical

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Speaker 1: rookie struggles at the beginning of the year. Then he

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Speaker 1: had a knee injury that knocked him out for over

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Speaker 1: a month. But everything changed right around Thanksgiving. Prior to that,

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Speaker 1: he had posted just two games with double digit Fantasy points.

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Speaker 1: After Thanksgiving, every game was double digit Fantasy points for

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Speaker 1: Zack Wilson. The play clearly got better. It doesn't always

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Speaker 1: showed in the box scores, though, so I'm no Warren.

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Speaker 1: You if you just like go to the Zach Wilson

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Speaker 1: box score and pull it up, you're not going to

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Speaker 1: see like this epic change in box. You're not overwhelmed

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Speaker 1: by yards and three touchdowns, and no you don't. There

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Speaker 1: was very little that, but I test you look better.

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Speaker 1: PFF grades got at least a little bit better, and

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Speaker 1: he started connecting on deep balls. In his first five

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Speaker 1: full games when he's really struggling, he had almost two

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Speaker 1: picks per game. But during that second half of the

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Speaker 1: season again and Thanksgiving forward, when he came back from

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Speaker 1: the injury, he cut it down from two picks a

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Speaker 1: game to zero point three picks per game and just

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Speaker 1: two interceptions in the final seven games. Massive improvement in

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Speaker 1: the interceptions. Wilson's deep ball was very promising, um as

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Speaker 1: was the downfield connection with Elijah Moore, who just went

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Speaker 1: on a rampage after Wilson came back. He averaged six catches,

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Speaker 1: seventies seven yards and one touchdown until he bowed out

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Speaker 1: with injury in December. So there was a really nice

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Speaker 1: budding connection with Elijah more who many people are very

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Speaker 1: high on now. Also, Zack Wilson gained first rounder Garrett

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Speaker 1: Wilson in the draft. He gained second rounder Bruce Hall

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Speaker 1: in the draft. And where does it sounds the Jets

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Speaker 1: offensive personnel and totality is actually pretty good at this Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it looks pretty great. I mean, you know, in addition

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Speaker 1: to Elijah More we know is good. Garrett Wilson should

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Speaker 1: be good, Breece Hallo should be good. You've also got

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Speaker 1: Corey Davis, Braxon Barrios there and what should be an

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Speaker 1: improved Al Davis is a serviceable number receiver and he

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Speaker 1: might be the wide receiver one on that team. Still

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Speaker 1: just in target share, but he's gonna be just fine.

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Speaker 1: Accuracy was a huge problem for Wilson last year, the

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Speaker 1: bottom of the league accuracy completion rates. But it's here's

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Speaker 1: why it should get better for Wilson. The stuff he

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Speaker 1: missed was the short stuff where he's where he had

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Speaker 1: the big delta between himself and the other quarterbacks were

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Speaker 1: behind the line of scrimmage and less than ten yard passes.

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Speaker 1: Does that make you worried about Yips? No, not yet. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not there yet. I'm not calling him

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Speaker 1: to be at this point, So roll that together. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of reasons for optim isn't on Wilson the

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Speaker 1: way he finished last year. The talent around him should

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Speaker 1: get better in year number two. I've got to make

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Speaker 1: on Zach Wilson. How do you have a make or

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Speaker 1: a break on Zach Wilson. I agree with you. I

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Speaker 1: think that he's going to have a much improved year.

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Speaker 1: Make let's go to San Francisco quarterback Tray Lance. Do

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Speaker 1: you have a make or break on him? We might

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Speaker 1: to diverge here. I'm usually a pessimist on running quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: and I'll keep that trend going and say that this

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Speaker 1: is going to be the break year for Trey Lance.

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Speaker 1: As of this recording of the podcast, Jimmy Garoppolo is

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Speaker 1: still on the team. The Niners could cut him for

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Speaker 1: almost no dead cap. They could solve a lot of issues,

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Speaker 1: They could sign Debo long term. They could just cut

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo. But they haven't. Well, they'll trade him. They

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Speaker 1: won't cut him. I don't think that they're going to

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Speaker 1: trade him. There's really not that many partners left out there.

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield was just Delta Carolina, so they're off the board.

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Speaker 1: But why they won't cut him, I think is because

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Speaker 1: you just wait for some team that thinks it's have

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Speaker 1: a going enough a good season and could have their

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Speaker 1: quarterback get hurt, and now you've got a lot of

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Speaker 1: value in Jimmy Garoppolo. Right now, there is only one

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Speaker 1: trade partner of Seattle and they're in division and they're

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Speaker 1: probably not going that. Maybe maybe the Saints, but probably not.

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Speaker 1: So if they're in division, you're right, so that's probably

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Speaker 1: not gonna happen. Although if they really don't believe in

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo, that could be just sabotaged. Well, what if

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Speaker 1: they really don't believe in Tray Lance? That's the other thing. Um,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy g is still on the roster. I have a

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Speaker 1: sneaking suspicion that the forty Niners are not quite ready

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Speaker 1: to hand the full reins full time to Tray Lance.

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Speaker 1: With a shredded shoulder last year, they kept Jimmy is

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Speaker 1: a little strong. He had it hanging from a tendon.

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Speaker 1: It was just dangling there. They kept him in throughout

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Speaker 1: the playoffs and he led them to a conference championship game.

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Speaker 1: And head coaches are creatures of habit. They go at

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Speaker 1: the guy that got them there. Shanahan and Garoppolo, the

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Speaker 1: long history together. And on Lance, we saw the rushing

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Speaker 1: ability on display and his three starts last season, but

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Speaker 1: the passing was if he at best. All the reports

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Speaker 1: out of the off season program is Lance is ready,

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Speaker 1: Jerry Rice, and Steve Young, they're all believers. They think

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Speaker 1: he's the next guy. But you never hear bad reports

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Speaker 1: in June or July. And who cares what former players

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Speaker 1: that aren't really in camp think about this. Uh. The

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Speaker 1: Niners admittedly don't rely heavily on quarterback production to get

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Speaker 1: things done in their offense. Over the last five years,

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Speaker 1: mostly with Garoppolo, they finished in the bottom half the

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Speaker 1: league in QB Fantasy points in four out of five years.

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Speaker 1: The Niners deploy a high efficiency passing game, though, and

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Speaker 1: Jimmy G's that's because of what Jimmy G brought to

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Speaker 1: the table. They were catering that offense to his strengths. Well,

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Speaker 1: he's a sixty percent passer over the last three years.

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Speaker 1: That's very good. Uh. And they let their playmakers make plays.

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Speaker 1: They let Devo move downfield. Now, Lance was only fifty

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Speaker 1: seven percent on his passes last year. Fifty seven percent

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Speaker 1: is not good. And if Shanahan sees it that way,

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Speaker 1: and they're looking at a big downtick eleven percent downtick,

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Speaker 1: that makes them one dimensional, That makes them a running team.

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Speaker 1: That makes people key off on where's deebo in the backfield?

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Speaker 1: Where's Trey Lance going? We can we can cover these

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Speaker 1: guys because we don't believe in his arm. I've been

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Speaker 1: completely wrong on running quarterbacks before. I hope I'm wrong again,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not drafting Trey Lance at all this year.

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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be wrong. I think running the

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Speaker 1: running numbers are going to keep him fantasy relevant even

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Speaker 1: when his arm is developing and learning earning to use

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Speaker 1: the gigantic arm that he's got. Right, I think the

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Speaker 1: upside is Hurts this year. Jalen Hurts was quarterback six

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Speaker 1: in fantasy last year. You know that's we'll take that upside.

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Speaker 1: So we had you didn't hear it to you're on

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Speaker 1: vacation last week. Last week we took we detailed Trey

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Speaker 1: Lances a we're doing uh all or nothing players, you

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Speaker 1: know that sort of sentiment, and he is. He's Trey

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Speaker 1: Lance is an all or nothing guy. If things go wrong,

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Speaker 1: he's not the starting quarterback. If things go right, he's

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Speaker 1: running for ninety yards a game, and he's you know,

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Speaker 1: then he chips in two passing yards and one or

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Speaker 1: two passing touchdowns and and you've got a top five quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: so things can go very right or wrong for him.

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Speaker 1: I'm on break. I'm on the make side of Trey

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Speaker 1: Land and I'm on the break side. Let's do one

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Speaker 1: more quarterback make or break with Bears quarterback Justin Fields.

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Speaker 1: I am firmly in the break. Let me make my

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Speaker 1: case for you. Man. There's a center it out there

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Speaker 1: that fields automatically get better under Matt Eberflus and offensive

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Speaker 1: coordinator Luke Getsy because Nag he's gone. But is that deserved?

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Speaker 1: Eberflus is a defensive coordinator issue, so I don't see

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Speaker 1: a big effect here. And one of Getsy's NFL experience

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Speaker 1: is with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. No problem, there

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Speaker 1: is no comparison between these two Aaron Rodgers and Justin

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Speaker 1: Fields and Fields passing last year was straight up dreadful.

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Speaker 1: Second lowest completion percentage next next Gen stats marked him

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Speaker 1: with the second worst expected completion percentage, and he was

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Speaker 1: particularly bad when pressured, with a p F grade dropping

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Speaker 1: in half from pressured plays to clean pocket place. It's

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Speaker 1: totally unable to handle pressure. Under pressure, he through just

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns all of last year For Justin Fields. Intangibly

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Speaker 1: to me, Fields never looked comfortable in the pocket, and frustratingly,

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Speaker 1: Naggie didn't give him enough looks outside the pocket. I'd

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Speaker 1: had a lot of design to plays for Justin Fields,

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Speaker 1: to get him out of the plot a pocket, let

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Speaker 1: him run or pass on the run. He was asked

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Speaker 1: to do that very very little last year. Maybe that

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Speaker 1: comes together this year, and I wish I could give

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Speaker 1: you reasons to believe in Fields and to believe he's

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Speaker 1: gonna get better. But Matt, the offensive line doesn't look

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Speaker 1: like it's gonna be any better. Almost no changes Byron Pringles,

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Speaker 1: the best receiver of the team brought in and their

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Speaker 1: third round wide receiver draft pick Vellis Jones is widely

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Speaker 1: viewed as one of the worst reaches in the entire draft. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's a kick returner, he's a special teamer. So if

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Speaker 1: you draft Fields, it's really with the hope that Eberflus

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Speaker 1: and gets he run him and run him a lot

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Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson level of consistency as a runner. It

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Speaker 1: would have to be like twenty carries a game kind

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Speaker 1: of a thing, because it feels like these Bears are

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Speaker 1: gonna try to win games thirteen to seven with the

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Speaker 1: defense that shed like everybody you know by the way

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's kind of a bizarre team. It looked

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Speaker 1: like the Bears could be bottoming out here. I think

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Speaker 1: the Bears are bottoming out and I don't. I don't

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Speaker 1: for a lot of reasons. So you're with me. It

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Speaker 1: sounds like on Justin Fields is a break player I am.

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Speaker 1: I want to add in one more quarterback as an

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Speaker 1: able mension here. How about Davis Mills. Because of the

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks we mentioned before this, Mills had the most touchdowns

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Speaker 1: with sixteen played in thirteen games last year, had four

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Speaker 1: games five multiple touchdown games. Only Jeff Driskell and Kyle

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Speaker 1: Allen pushing him. That's nothing. He's a starter. So I'm

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Speaker 1: very bullish on Mills because if he breaks, he's out

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Speaker 1: of a job. The Texans are going to draft his

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Speaker 1: replacement next year if he doesn't look awesome this year.

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Speaker 1: So I kind of think that he's got a shot

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Speaker 1: here I showed I guess I tipped my hand and

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Speaker 1: how I feel about Davis Mills by not including him

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Speaker 1: in this list, because I already think he's kind of

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Speaker 1: proven himself to be better than all the other guys.

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Speaker 1: So we talked about he's being drafted after all of

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Speaker 1: these guys. I think it's a mistake. I think that

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Speaker 1: everybody on this show, you, Me, Brian and Scott, all

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Speaker 1: of us kind of like Davids Mills more than the

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Speaker 1: average person does out. So I you know, I just

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Speaker 1: I think Davis. I thought Davis Mills played admirably when

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Speaker 1: given the opportunity to do so. And I think there's

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Speaker 1: a than anti Houston bias amongst a lot of fantasy

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Speaker 1: players that view the whole view it as a dysfunctional

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Speaker 1: landing place for anybody. Well, they got to score points

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Speaker 1: because their defense is gonna be very good and they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be behind. They're gonna be chucking at Yolo style

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Speaker 1: the whole season. They did last year too, And David S.

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Speaker 1: Mills you still had. You can only start from time

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Speaker 1: to time, but probably gets better year to remember, I

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Speaker 1: think only thirteen starts in college and so and maybe

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Speaker 1: the thirteen numbers in my head because you had because

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Speaker 1: you played you mentioned he played in didn't start thirteen

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Speaker 1: last year, by the way, had to come in as

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Speaker 1: a replacement for Tyrod Taylor a few times. Let's take

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Speaker 1: a break. When we come back, make or break running

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Speaker 1: backs and wide receivers. When we returned to Fantasy Football Weekly.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. This is a make or

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Speaker 1: Breaks sophomore edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. All Charging and

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Speaker 1: Matt Harrison with you. You can check out Matt Matt's

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Speaker 1: work at Shock Fantasy dot com. You've got your Shock

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Speaker 1: Fantasy hat. I'm loading up a whole bunch of cheat

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Speaker 1: sheets this weekend to we're getting going, uh finally, Draft season.

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Speaker 1: Here we go. Let's go to the running back position,

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Speaker 1: and I want to start with Philadelphia running back Kenneth Gainwell.

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Speaker 1: Do you believe this is a make or break season

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Speaker 1: for him? I kind of forgot about Kenny Gainwell, like admittedly,

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Speaker 1: like just off my radar um. But so this was

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Speaker 1: kind of fun because I got to dig back into him.

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Speaker 1: And for the sake of the argument, I'm gonna call

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Speaker 1: it a make year for Kenny Gainwell, but not in

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Speaker 1: the way that he suddenly becomes a always starting running

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Speaker 1: back in fantasy. I think he's going to be a

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Speaker 1: serviceable flex play here and there. Um, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of things working against him, but there were glimmers of hope.

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Speaker 1: In his rookie year. First, he scored six more touchdowns

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Speaker 1: than Miles Sanders at zero. Five of those six were

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Speaker 1: on the ground. That's a good thing. Um. Boston Scott

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Speaker 1: inexplicably was the inside the five runner for Philadelphia, a

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Speaker 1: guy who's not built for that, had seven touchdowns on

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Speaker 1: ten attempts. Miles Sanders had five rushing attempts inside the

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Speaker 1: five last year, with zero touched out and negative one

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Speaker 1: yard negative five yard average, never one, negative one. Um

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Speaker 1: Gamewell was only given two attempts inside the five, but

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Speaker 1: he did score on one, so that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: You know, Boston Scott is not built to be a

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Speaker 1: goal lineback. No, No, I just I can't believe that

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Speaker 1: they're gonna keep using Boston Scott there, although he was

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Speaker 1: fairly effective in that role. He was, but you know,

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Speaker 1: Boston Scott could be one of those cap casualties as

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Speaker 1: they come closer to camp, like maybe they don't need

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Speaker 1: a veteran guy like that. Who knows. But the second

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Speaker 1: thing that I really liked about Gainwell, he was the

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Speaker 1: most utilized running back in the passing game for Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: last year, and that's kind of where you think Boston

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Speaker 1: Scott would kind of flex into there. But it was

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Speaker 1: Gainwell more targets and receptions than Sanders, who was on

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Speaker 1: the field a lot more more targets and receptions than Scott,

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Speaker 1: whose primary role should be the pass catching back. So

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Speaker 1: give me the most efficient running back in the passing game,

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Speaker 1: a guy who could feasibly steal the goal line role

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Speaker 1: from Boston Scott. To me, that's a flexworthy runner. But

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Speaker 1: the problem is is we need consistency and touches. He

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Speaker 1: needs ten to fifteen touches a game to be interesting.

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Speaker 1: In the last six games the last season, seventeen touches

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Speaker 1: zero one zero, sixteen six. That's wild usage. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: it's it's crazy. So I don't know if that's a

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Speaker 1: coaching philosophy. There could have been injury injuries to to

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Speaker 1: Miles Sanders here and there. But Kenneth Gainwell is an

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Speaker 1: interesting guy. He looked good when he had the ability

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Speaker 1: to get the touches. So I'll say make Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: I like, do you challenge yourself to make a make

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Speaker 1: out of that? But I don't. I don't know that

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Speaker 1: I can go there. Um, I'm I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 1: Travis at the end as our next runner, Jacksonville running back,

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Speaker 1: I've got to make on him. It feels obvious now,

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Speaker 1: but let's just talk it through and I don't have

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Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time, and it's gonna think

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Speaker 1: everybody's everybody's interested in him. But I've got a real

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Speaker 1: angle near the end of this that you'll want to

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Speaker 1: listen to. That's very important. I think, UM, as you've

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Speaker 1: detailed on previous shows, James Robinson's return is very much

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Speaker 1: in doubt and way more than people are talking about.

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Speaker 1: Cam Akers look terrible when he returned from his achilles injury.

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Speaker 1: Robinson suffered this injury late December. UM no running back

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Speaker 1: has ever returned from an achilles injury to have a

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Speaker 1: meaningful running back career, So there's a lot of reasons

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Speaker 1: to be very nervous about James Robinson, and especially early

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Speaker 1: in the season. Et Tiens. Liz frank injury happened mid

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Speaker 1: August last year, so by week one he's gonna be

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Speaker 1: over one year removed from it, so that foot should

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Speaker 1: really be okay. Liz Frank's um injuries have had a

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Speaker 1: lot of variation and outcome of how that's affected players,

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Speaker 1: but it's gotten better over the past few years. Um As,

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Speaker 1: I think we've handled the break better medically than we

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Speaker 1: used to. Doug Peterson can manufactures throws to his backs,

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Speaker 1: and in some cases throughout Doug Peterson's career, he's done

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Speaker 1: that in his backs combined for eighty five catches and

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Speaker 1: eight hundred yards. But I'll note that a lot of

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Speaker 1: the time, a lot of other seasons, Doug Peterson's backs

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Speaker 1: haven't done that. But they also it's also really been

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Speaker 1: buying large when Miles Sanders was healthy, and when he

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Speaker 1: wasn't healthy, and when he was on roster and he

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Speaker 1: wasn't um And Etienne was a phenomenal pass catcher in

426
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: college at Clemson, So you know, the hope is that's

427
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 1: going to happen here too. I think I think at

428
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 1: worst at ten should be a big PPR force. But

429
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: Etian in college was never work horse back. He I

430
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: don't believe he's going to be a workhorse back in

431
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: this offense either, but they will use him through the

432
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 1: air a lot, I think. I see. Tell me if

433
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 1: you think there's a common box score for Ettian ten

434
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: rushes for let's say four and a half yards, forty

435
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: five yards um, five receptions for another forty five yards,

436
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: and a coin flips chance that a touchdown one way

437
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: or another in most games. Sound about right, sounds fair.

438
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: Etian was never a goal line guy, has never been

439
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: a big goal line guy, and he's not a big

440
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: bodied guy. I want to put Snoop Connor on your radar,

441
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: so if you believe me that James Robinson's return is

442
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 1: very much in doubt and his his abilities are very

443
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: much in doubt, Snoop Robinson was a fifth rounder that

444
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: they took, Snoop Connor. Snoop Connor, thank you who they took.

445
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 1: And he he is a bona fide goal line guy.

446
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: In college, he was used express sleep as a goal

447
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: line guy. Wasn't a workhorse guy, but he got tons

448
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: of He got tons of hard yards um. He was

449
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: very good. He a shocking number of like ten twelve

450
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 1: fifteen yard chunk plays. Doesn't have the long speed to

451
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: give you like you know, rip off sixty yards, but

452
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 1: chunk gains and workhorse chunk gains and goal line ability.

453
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: Snoop Connor thunder and lightning. Here. If you want a deep,

454
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 1: deep sleeper and a guy that could lead the Jaguars

455
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 1: and rushing touchdowns. Snoop Connor anyway, I gotta make on

456
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: Travis Sten Yeah, I'm with you. Let's go to the

457
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: wide receiver position beginning with Giants sophomore Darius Tony. It

458
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 1: seems easy ish, but I'm gonna call it a break

459
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 1: for Cadarius Tony. He was really the wrong draft pick

460
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: last year for Dave Gettleman, who has now gone. The

461
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: new regime has absolutely no ties to Tony. They were

462
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 1: a rumored to already be shopping him near the draft.

463
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: Why they still have Kenny Golladay under a massive contract,

464
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 1: Sterling Shepherd still there. They drafted another slot guy, wan

465
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: Dale Robinson in the second round, basically to replace Cadarius Tony.

466
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 1: If you google Caldarius Tony, the first thing that pops

467
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 1: up is where is Caldarius Tony? Now? Where is he

468
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: right now? Where is he? Where in the world is Tony? Uh?

469
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: He had minor offseason knee surgery. There's a lot of

470
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: questions about his character. Is a big dedication to the game. Uh.

471
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones in his final year in New Jersey. It

472
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 1: seems like this offense is just starting a two to

473
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: three year rebuild under new head coach Brian Dable. Uh.

474
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna build a completely different offense than

475
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: we've seen under the previous regime. And the Giants wide

476
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: receivers as a group with Daniel Jones, guess how many

477
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: touchdowns they had as an entire group had one or zero?

478
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: Shepherd had like two. Tony might have scored one time.

479
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go five. You got the number right, but

480
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: Tony didn't score. Okay, five touchdowns for the Giants wide

481
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 1: receivers as a whole last yearly bad. I think Cadarius

482
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: Tony might be looking at being the fourth or fifth

483
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: wide receiver in this and then Daniel Jones. Yeah, it's

484
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,439
Speaker 1: offense gross. I don't like it at all. I'm with

485
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: you on break on Tony. I wish you were different

486
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: because he does flash unbelievable. Stop. Yeah, he had that

487
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: one game last year he had ten catches and everybody like, wow,

488
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: he looked amazing, and then he's like, I don't really

489
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: want to play football. Unbelievable. Um. I do think the

490
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: Giant's offense gets better, but I don't think the pivot

491
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 1: guy on that is gonna be Cadarius Tony. No, it'll

492
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 1: be next year when they when they draft a new

493
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: quarterback and they start over there. I hope, I hope

494
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 1: for jan Daniel jones sake. You're wrong, and I think

495
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: they're gonna run Daniel Jones a lot more than people realize. Well,

496
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 1: I hope he doesn't fall down about downfield. If he

497
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 1: gets thirty yards down field, it's not bad. Um. All right,

498
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 1: Let's go to our second wide receiver sophomore, and that's

499
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 1: Baltimore receiver Rashad Bateman, who I have a make one.

500
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: Despite a disappointing rookie season, Ravens doubled down on Rashad Bateman.

501
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: Team didn't put a single draft pick into the position,

502
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: they didn't add any free agents, and they lost Marcus

503
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 1: Brown mark Uh. Bateman's biggest threat for targets is Devin DuVernay.

504
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: He barely counts those. Biggest threat for targets is probably

505
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: wide receiver. It's j K Dobbins and that receiver. Yes,

506
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: Bateman scored just once last year, and even his snap

507
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: count really spiked up in the final month of the season.

508
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 1: The production yards the catches didn't move with it. Unfortunately,

509
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: the best reason for optimism here in the four games

510
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: that Bateman played with eight or more targets which he

511
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: could get on a regular basis. This year eight Moore targets,

512
00:27:55,760 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: he averaged a rock solid seventy three yards. And it

513
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 1: comes together for a lot of receivers in year two.

514
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: Opportunity Trump's talent. We talked about all the time in

515
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: fantasy football. Opportunity is more important than talent, getting the

516
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: ball at the goal line, getting eight getting eight targets

517
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: a game. That's more important than being the next Barry Sanders.

518
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: With the opportunity factor, though, are you just slightly nervous

519
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: that John Harbaugh's offense and Lamar Jackson's offense just doesn't

520
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: favor wide receivers and and and it's been I mean,

521
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: Marquis Brown had some splashes here and there, but wildly

522
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 1: and consistent and tough to start him on a weekly

523
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: basis over the last few years. And all right, so

524
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: let's all yours a good point. Let me define what

525
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 1: I think where I think Bateman ends up this year

526
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: around eighty catches, a thousand yards and seven touchdowns. Okay,

527
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: that's all right, you know, I think that's you know,

528
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: I think that's the best. I think that's a receiver yeah.

529
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: If that's if he plays all year, assuming he plays

530
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: the full season as the number one receiver on his team,

531
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 1: wide receiver on his team, I think that's where he

532
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: could end up. Well, they only scored ten touchdowns as

533
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: a wide receiver group last year, so that might be

534
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: a little a little aggressive. I think he's probably I

535
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: would guess he finishes kind of around Brandon Aiyuk Tyler

536
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: Boyd did last year sixty seventy catches, eight hundred yards,

537
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: five touchdowns. So you're on break or make? Is that

538
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: a break right for you? I mean, I think it's

539
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 1: still a make, but I think it's just a yeah. Okay,

540
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: let's move on to Ron Dell Moore, Arizona wide receiver

541
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: Ron del Moore? Is he a make or break? He's

542
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: breaking for me? He's breaking out of Arizona hopefully. Um.

543
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: I think you had the stat in the show we

544
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: did you know last time I was on, which must

545
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: have been like three years ago, because yeah, because you've

546
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: been on vacation for three years. Um, Rondale Moore's average

547
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: depth of target one one yard your heart and the

548
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: next closest was four yards. Yeah, and plus that, I

549
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: mean in my mind and probably your mind. He's fifth

550
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: on the wide receiver depth chart in Arizona, behind DeAndre

551
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: Hopkins when he gets back from his suspension, Marquis Brown,

552
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: A J. Green, and Antoine Wesley. I think so because

553
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: you and I are well, you know I feel about Antoine, yes,

554
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: but also ed In zach Ertz and Max Williams. I

555
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: think he's eighth in the pecking order. You want to

556
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: be eighth in a pecking order. No, I don't want

557
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: that guy on my team. He's just a gadget guy

558
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: in Cliff Kingsbury's offense, hence the depth of target. He's

559
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: too small to be a red zone threat. You're reliant

560
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: on more breaking a huge touchdown. He did one last year.

561
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: One touchdown he was in completely blown coverage against the Vikings.

562
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: That was it. He should not be on rosters in

563
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: fantasy this year. He's a hardcore break for me, hardcore

564
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: break all right, Um, I'm with you on the break

565
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: on Rondel Moore. Nico Collins is next sophomore wide receiver

566
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 1: for Houston. Finished second on the team and receptions and

567
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: receiving ards last year, but it didn't amount to much

568
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: of anything. Texans used his big body on slants and

569
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: the middle of the field routes other than Cooper Cup.

570
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: That is a very tricky part to get fantasy relevance

571
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: from in the middle of the field because usually you

572
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: get tackled quickly in the middle of the field, so

573
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: you don't get the big plays, you don't get the touchdowns.

574
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: So you know that part didn't help Nico Collins last year.

575
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: He was the starter for the team in six of

576
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,719
Speaker 1: the final seven games, but it didn't turn into an

577
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: uptick and production for Nico Collins. What does starter even

578
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: mean anymore? It just means on the field of first

579
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: play that's important is more important. UM low catch rate

580
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: UH fifty four percent catch rate, but that was largely

581
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: the function of him being a rookie catching passes from

582
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: a rookie. I think that gets better this year. UM.

583
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: They drafted John um Mecchi, who's coming up at January

584
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: a c l. He won't be a factor for UH

585
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: until Halloween or later, and Nico Collins is gonna start.

586
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: And I think if you believe like we do, as

587
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: we talked earlier about Davids S Mills, like David Mills,

588
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: I think you need to probably like his number two

589
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: receiver to get a little better Nico Collins. Big bodied

590
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: guys should be more of an enzo and target than

591
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: he was last year. And so I've got to I've

592
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: got a cautious make on Nico Collins. I still don't

593
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: think he's going to get anywhere near the numbers that

594
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: Brishade Bateman just had as the number one for the Ravens.

595
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: But I can see Nico Collins finishing with seven hundred

596
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: yards five touchdowns, and he's he's somebody we're going to

597
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 1: have I think as a as a fairly regular take

598
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: a chance on me wide receiver. Yeah, and Collins had

599
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: two thirds of the snaps basically over the last half

600
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: of the season. Okay, so he was basically a starter. Yeah, yeah,

601
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: we'll take that. Uh. Thank you, Matt, great job, Thanks

602
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 1: for listening. Everybody appreciate as always getting to the end

603
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: of the podcast, and those who take time to subscribe,

604
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 1: rate review the show. Always grateful. You can get my

605
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: cheat sheet for free UH at Guillotine leagues dot com

606
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 1: and check out the Guillotine League of your choice. Four

607
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: ways to play Private League's High Stakes League, Regular Guillotine League,

608
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: and now Zombie Mode. Talk to you in a week. Everybody.

609
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I heart Radio.

610
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i

611
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,280
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612
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