1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. Great to be joining 3 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 2: you for a special two part episode. Your host today, 4 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 2: Brendan Lasheen. We'll get to our guest in just a moment. 5 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 2: Gambling on the News a two part episode here on 6 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:34,959 Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast. Part one. What are predictive markets? 7 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: The nuts and bolts on how to invest in the 8 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 2: world of news, and that requires a lot of breakdown, 9 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: so that's not waste any time. And just to kind 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: of give folks an understanding here, because maybe you're a 11 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 2: better that's focused on just sports, but most betters they've 12 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: got interest beyond just that world, right, So for those 13 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 2: interested in wagering on political outcomes and world events, you 14 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: might have an interest. Predictive markets are an avenue to 15 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 2: do so. Today's guest on the Action Network Podcast Alex 16 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: Keen Dog Keeney. He is the founder of Star Spangled 17 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 2: Gambler's host of their popular podcast, which has become the 18 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 2: leading source of information about political prediction markets. Prior to 19 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 2: founding SSG, Alex was a screenwriter in Hollywood, a policy 20 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: advisor in the US House of Representatives, and a marketing 21 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 2: executive for Jordan belforp better known as the real Wolf 22 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: of Wall Street. Alex, thanks so much for making the time. 23 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 2: It's a special two parters, so we've got a lot 24 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 2: to get to. I guess just before we really get 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 2: going here and start breaking apart the how when it 26 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 2: comes to investing in predictive markets, what would you pitch 27 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: to a better that might be in the sports space? 28 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 2: Coming over? Here's what's the uh? What's the attention grabber? 29 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 2: As they like to say to us when we wrote 30 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 2: those papers in high school. 31 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it is the idea of betting on politics, 32 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 3: not an attention grabber out of the box, Like I've 33 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 3: got your attention right now, don't I? 34 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: You sure do. 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 3: But I mean let's talk money. Money talks, right. You're 36 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: betting on the news, so the information's out there a 37 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 3: lot of times. You can find the answers in advance, 38 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 3: and you can get in and out. It's a market, right, 39 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 3: It's like a stock market. So you can come and 40 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: go on your schedule. You know, you don't have to 41 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 3: be right. You can just wait for the market to 42 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 3: move your way, take your money, leave, come back in 43 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 3: when you want. It's it's the managing risk is quite easy, 44 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 3: I would say so. 45 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 2: As far as the again using kind of sports as 46 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 2: a jumping off point, how are these markets different from 47 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 2: betting on a game at a sports book. 48 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: First of all, betting on a game and a sports 49 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 3: book is really hard. Second of all, betting on a 50 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 3: game in a sports book, once my bookie has my money, 51 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 3: that's it. I better hope that I win, right. Whereas 52 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 3: when I'm betting on politics, which should I do? You know? 53 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 3: Every day of my life I am again I'm betting 54 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 3: into a stock market. I see a news story that 55 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 3: I think maybe will cause the market to panic. I 56 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 3: may or may not even be right. But if I'm 57 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 3: right that other traders are going to panic and that 58 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 3: the stock market is going to push the price one 59 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 3: way or the other, I can take my money out 60 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 3: for a nice win whenever I want, and I don't 61 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 3: have to wait to find out if I want. I 62 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 3: don't have to carry that risk the entire time. I 63 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 3: can leave once I have a profit. 64 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 2: So, for example, so just to kind of start breaking 65 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: this apart, you use exchanges in this market, not sports books. 66 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 2: Can you talk to us about what exactly an exchange 67 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 2: is and how does that specifically function? 68 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 3: Okay, so why don't we talk about the biggest exchange. First, 69 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 3: are you familiar with Predicted? Have you ever heard of it? 70 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: No, I'm new to this just as much as anyone else. 71 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 2: That listening might be. 72 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 3: Okay, awesome. You are here for the audience. That is 73 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 3: the best kind of host there is. Predicted is the 74 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 3: largest political gambling exchange in the United States. They operate 75 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 3: with a waiver from the federal government that lets them 76 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 3: offer lines. It's boring, blah blah blah. The thing that 77 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 3: you just need to know is that it's legal and 78 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 3: it's safe. So from a vetter's perspective, you don't have 79 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 3: to worry about them taking their money off. You don't 80 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 3: have to worry about the government cracking down on them 81 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 3: at this stage in their existence. So that is the 82 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 3: biggest exchange. And right now, take for example, everyone likes 83 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 3: talking about Donald Trump. Right you put Donald Trump's name 84 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 3: in a headline, you're gonna get some eyeballs. So Donald 85 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 3: Trump has been in a really bad news cycle lately. 86 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 3: You know these January sixth hearings at the same time 87 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 3: of Ron De Santis, the governor of Florida. You know, 88 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 3: big mouth, big tall, brownie guy, gets a lot of 89 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 3: attention to has been in a great news cycle. You know, 90 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 3: people have been eating up him, sort of picking a 91 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 3: fight with Mickey Mouse and Disneyland down in Florida. So 92 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 3: if you go and look at the exchange predicted and 93 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 3: the batting line, who will be the Republican nominee in 94 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four? Okay, well what do you see? You 95 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 3: see Donald Trump's share price has gone from about forty 96 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 3: cents to about thirty cents. And in this exchange, it's 97 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: sort of like the every share can be worth a dollar, 98 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 3: it can be with zero cents or anything in between. 99 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 3: So Donald Trump's shares have fallen from about forty cents 100 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 3: to thirty cents. That's a big loss in a short 101 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 3: period of time. Whereas Ron DeSantis, who has been in 102 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 3: this kind of rate news cycle while Trump has been floundering, 103 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 3: has gone from about thirty to about forty five. So 104 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 3: that's just paying attention to the news, putting a couple 105 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 3: bucks into the market, and now if you're up, you 106 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 3: can take it out and go spend it somewhere else. 107 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 3: So that's that is the exchange. Ye nature of political gambling. 108 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: Okay, what are some examples of markets you can trade in. 109 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 3: Oh boy, well, one of my favorites right now is 110 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 3: just betting on whether or not daylight savings time will be. 111 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 3: That's not made up. That's not made up. 112 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: It's one of those things I'm like, oh, I didn't 113 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 2: think you could do that. I didn't know that was possible, 114 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 2: But here we are. 115 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 3: I mean, these companies need to make a profit. So 116 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 3: you know, when they hear something crazy come out of 117 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 3: a politician's mouth, or you know, some segment that you 118 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 3: see on Good Morning America that you think is just 119 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 3: total fluff, there's probably a betting line for it. So, 120 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 3: you know, COVID cases that seems kind of dark, but 121 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 3: something you can bet on. Who's going to win elections, 122 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 3: be the next president, the congressional stock trading ban. I 123 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 3: don't know. If you hear that story every now and 124 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 3: then on Twitter, you know, I'm betting on Congress not 125 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 3: enacting a stock trading band and really just election I say, elections, laws, 126 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 3: court cases, you can probably bet on it. 127 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 2: So again, using the sports gambler as the example of 128 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 2: who we might be attracting in terms of an audience. 129 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 2: As far as other nuts and bolts, like, for example, 130 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 2: there are no pushes. When it comes to betting in politics, 131 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 2: you have a winner, you have a loser. If you 132 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 2: take a total of nine runs in a baseball game 133 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 2: and the final score is six to three, I mean 134 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 2: you push. But yeah, what are some of those other 135 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 2: technical things that are key differences. 136 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 3: It's really important, even more so than in sports. You 137 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 3: are betting against fellow betters in the marketplace. It's a 138 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 3: zero sum game. Okay, you take the action at twenty cents, 139 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 3: you know you bet. You take the thirty cent bet 140 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 3: that Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. 141 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 3: Someone is on the other side taking a seventy cent 142 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,799 Speaker 3: bet that he will not be. So you can play 143 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 3: the game and say, well, I'm going to be right, 144 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,799 Speaker 3: you know, I'm you know, an election is a game, 145 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 3: and I'm going to pick the win of the game 146 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 3: based on the conditions on the field and this that 147 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 3: or the other thing. Or you can play fellow traders. 148 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 3: You can sort of understand how people will react to 149 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 3: the news, how the Karen down the street with all 150 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: the cats is going to feel, you know, when the 151 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 3: Supreme Court does this thing, or how you're crazy uncle 152 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 3: who buys like the camouflage cans of Natty light. You 153 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 3: know how he will interpret news, and you can bet 154 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 3: against them in the marketplace. Now there's you know, step 155 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 3: step step step to that. So you know, you can 156 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 3: bet on the event or you can bat against crazy people, 157 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 3: and both are very lucrative strategies. 158 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 2: Give us an example of a market. Say you get 159 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 2: a hundred bucks, your unit size is one hundred bucks, 160 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 2: and you're you're looking to make a make a bet. Here, 161 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 2: give us a market as an example. 162 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 3: All right, so what did betters do last week? Betters 163 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 3: went and they bought down the price of the Republicans 164 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,119 Speaker 3: holding the Senate. They thought, well, Karen down the street 165 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 3: is really going to come out for democrats. The Republicans 166 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 3: are going to have a harder time retaking the Senate. 167 00:07:58,120 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 3: So they went and they took their one hundred buck 168 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 3: buck and they bought thirty five cent shares that the 169 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 3: Democrats would control the Senate. Okay, So because of that, 170 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 3: the price of Republicans went down a little and the 171 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: price of Democrats went up a little. So now that 172 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 3: the odds of a Democrat holding the Senate is up 173 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 3: about three cents. So if you had one hundred dollars 174 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 3: and just two days ago you went and bet on 175 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 3: the Democrats where you taking the Senate, you'd have one 176 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 3: hundred three dollars right now. The point is is that 177 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 3: my one hundred dollars or my hundred shares, if I 178 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 3: put them on the Democrats and waited for them to 179 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 3: win the Senate November. If that happened, would regime at 180 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:35,959 Speaker 3: full value. Every single one of those shares would be 181 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 3: worth one dollar. If they lost, those shares would go 182 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 3: down to zero. And in the time being, based on 183 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 3: news stories, they might go up a dime, down a nickel. 184 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 3: Any one of one hundred things can happen. Is that 185 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 3: chart sort of swings back and forth on the news. 186 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 2: How does the market adjust or not adjust to the 187 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 2: level of news, Like what makes them think, okay, this 188 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 2: bit of news is a bigger deal than others because 189 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 2: as we know, that can be very subjective. 190 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, having a good feel for what matters 191 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 3: and what doesn't is really what makes you a profitable better. 192 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 3: You know, the market will almost always overreact to the 193 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 3: news sometimes. You know, in Arizona, for example, the markets 194 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 3: have been pricing it in a Donald Trump endorsement of Blake 195 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 3: Masters for weeks so when a sense the market overreacted 196 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 3: to news that hadn't even happened. So your skill is 197 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 3: a better really has a lot to do with your 198 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 3: ability to anticipate the next story that's going to drop. 199 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 3: And if you're right about the next story that's going 200 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 3: to drop, maybe your one hundred shares go up ten 201 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 3: cents in value and you've got an extra ten bucks 202 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 3: in your pocket. Maybe your five thousand shares go up 203 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 3: ten cents and now you've got, you know, an extra 204 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 3: fifty one hundred, five hundred. You see how this kind 205 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 3: of goes quickly if you trade with a lot of volume. 206 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: Good stuff. Again, it just tuning in. You are tuned 207 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 2: into the gambling on the news. Part one. It's a 208 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 2: two part podcast. Alex Keeney is our guest, the founder 209 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 2: of Star Spangled Gambler's host of their popular podcast Great 210 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 2: to Have Again. We're gonna have a second part of 211 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: the pot as well. We'll have a pragmatic breakdown of 212 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 2: strategies around how to profit in the world of political 213 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 2: investing in trading, plus and tips and picks for markets 214 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 2: currently being offered. So more of the actual actionable stuff 215 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 2: will be coming up in Part two. So Alex. In 216 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 2: sports betting, the market consists of a lot of participants. 217 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 2: You have sharp squares. Most individual bets come from just 218 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: recreational folks. Then you've got a smaller number of larger 219 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 2: bets coming in from the sharper professional betters. Sports books 220 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 2: can calculate liability based on money coming in on either 221 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: side of a bet. They can also use the size. 222 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 2: You've got the money and you've got the percentage of 223 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: the bets, so the size of the individual bets to 224 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 2: judge which sides and prices are attracting the sharper action. 225 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 2: So when it comes to the political betting exchanges, what 226 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: does the market consist of? 227 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 3: I might get canceled by political betters if I tell 228 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 3: you the truth. Your average political gambler, he's like a 229 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 3: very competitive beta mail. You know, he wasn't that good 230 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 3: at dodgeball in middle school. He maybe sat on the 231 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 3: bench in high school if he even made the team 232 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 3: at all. But he's a really smart guy. He's got 233 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: something to prove, and more than likely he doesn't even 234 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 3: work in politics. He just reads the news in the 235 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 3: morning and is clever about how to use that to 236 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 3: his advantage to make some money. There's a few crowds 237 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 3: you need to know about. First of all, you need 238 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 3: to know about the Maga money. Maga money is a 239 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 3: very important industry term you need to know about. People 240 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 3: will do anything to bet on Donald Trump. They will, 241 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 3: in fact, bet that he is still the president of 242 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 3: the United States. In twenty twenty two, they are still 243 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 3: making that bet. You can still take the other side 244 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 3: of that bet that Donald Trump is not in fact 245 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 3: the president of the United States, shocking as it may sound. 246 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 3: So that's your first group of squares. Your second group 247 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 3: of squares are literally called the Biden squares. Okay, they're 248 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 3: the people who bet during the last election that Biden 249 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 3: would win. They got very favorable odds to do it 250 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 3: because who the Maga money kept betting on Trump and 251 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 3: pushing those odds down. So there's the Biden squares out 252 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 3: there who just keep pissing away their winnings kind of 253 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 3: one bet at a time because they don't really understand politics. 254 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 3: But they got, you know, that dose of hopium of 255 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: winning big in twenty twenty. And then there's the Bernie Bros. 256 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 3: The Bernie Bros are like the Maga money. They will 257 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 3: bet on Bernie Sanders or Bernie Sanders endorsed candidate to 258 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 3: win any election no matter how long the odds are, 259 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 3: and you can almost always make money just by betting 260 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 3: against the Bernie bros. So those are sort of your 261 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 3: your three groups of squares. And you know the Sharps 262 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 3: are who they are. They mostly write podcast blog on 263 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 3: StarSpangled gamblers. You have access to their insights through us 264 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 3: if I don't mind saying so myself, but those are 265 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 3: your tribes. 266 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 2: Based on what you just said, you get the feeling 267 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 2: that there are just, unlike sports, far fewer restrictions for 268 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 2: insiders to participate. And then a lot of this comes 269 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 2: down to head verus heart right right. 270 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 3: I'm sure the home team bias comes through and in 271 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 3: a sports book too, but you know, people have a 272 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 3: hard time resisting it. You know, everyone thinks they know 273 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 3: everything about politics. You've been at a bad Thanksgiving dinner. 274 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 3: Everyone thinks they know everything. Use that against them. 275 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 2: Let's assume most of the audience they are not political 276 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: in sight. Who are government employees? Can they avoid becoming 277 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 2: chum in the waters? 278 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 3: Honestly, where did the worst political predictions come from? Like? 279 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 3: Was it not the Secretary of the Treasury and the 280 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve who said like inflation was fake news and 281 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 3: made up, you know, was it not the CIA that 282 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 3: said there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? You know, 283 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 3: being as someone who can win political office or be 284 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 3: like a lackey for a politician carrying their bags round, 285 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 3: that is not the same skill as just reading the news. 286 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 3: That's all you really need to do, Just reading the news, 287 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 3: seeing the holes and the bullshit and figuring out where 288 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,839 Speaker 3: to park your money to you know, be the beneficiary 289 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 3: of you know, our leadership classes idiocy. That's a cynical 290 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 3: way of saying it, but anyone can do it. It's 291 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 3: all public information. 292 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 2: So I guess what you're driving at, alex is it 293 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 2: pays to not be party affiliated. 294 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, and if you are, like you just got to 295 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 3: understand that about yourself. The people who have their eyes open, 296 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 3: the people who are willing to digest the information that 297 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 3: might kind of like ab them and the gut of 298 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 3: their you know, bias or party affiliation or whatever you 299 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 3: want to call it, Like, those are the people who 300 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 3: are going to win. The people who are just there 301 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,719 Speaker 3: to like hit the partisan crack pipe, they're going to 302 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 3: be gone. You're going to take their money, they'll be 303 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 3: off the sites within a couple of weeks. Their money 304 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 3: will be yours in a very short period of time 305 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 3: if they're not willing to see it both ways and 306 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 3: just push the bullshit out of their minds. 307 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 2: So outside of like because as we've highlighted, you know, 308 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 2: headlines are a big part of things, as you kind 309 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 2: of mapped out earlier in this episode, and a lot 310 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 2: of in a lot of cases, like you know, we're 311 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 2: in the we're in the month of we're in the 312 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 2: month of June, so in hockey season just ended, so 313 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 2: a lot of folks are betting baseball, and baseball is 314 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: one of those sports now in the in the sports 315 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 2: world where you've got to be, you've kind to be, 316 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 2: you've got to be on top of it. Like every 317 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 2: day what would be the attraction of an exchange to 318 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 2: a regular every day better, you. 319 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 3: Know, there's themes and politics, and therefore there's themes and 320 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 3: betting on politics, so you can kind of get in 321 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 3: sync and get in the flow of certain types of markets. 322 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 3: There are guys who bet on Joe Biden's polling numbers, 323 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 3: and they been betting on presidents polling numbers for years 324 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 3: and years and years. You can get in the flow 325 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 3: and you can keep making sort of the same bet 326 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 3: but slightly different over time. So you don't have to 327 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 3: master all of American politics. You just got to figure 328 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 3: out like one politician or one type of event, maybe 329 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 3: elections in your home state. Maybe there's a class of 330 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 3: markets called mentioned markets. When Joe Biden gives a State 331 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 3: of the Union or something, you can bet on what 332 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 3: he will say and what he won't say. You know, 333 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 3: watch an hour of YouTube videos, guess what. You're gonna 334 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 3: have a pretty good idea of what Joe Biden wants 335 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 3: to talk about. There are sort of recurring themes that 336 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 3: you can master one at a time instead of having 337 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 3: to be like a fish and a bunch of ponds 338 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 3: that are disconnected all at once. 339 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 2: Wow, that's like the equivalent of like a trend you know, 340 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 2: if you're big into trends when you bet on sports, 341 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 2: a trendy move might be going on YouTube and finding 342 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 2: some old speeches. That's that's that's next level. 343 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, or there are a lot of a great bet 344 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 3: to make over and over right now is betting that 345 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 3: democrats run cities where people are like really tired of 346 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 3: homelessness and crime and stuff like that, will throw out 347 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 3: their leadership like that will piss people off. That I 348 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 3: just said that out loud. But this is the land 349 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 3: of pissing people off to make money. And that is 350 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 3: a bet that is paid over and over again in 351 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 3: San Francisco. In Virginia, I'm betting on the mayor of 352 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 3: San Jose for the same reason, you know, to have 353 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 3: a surprise upset there. What there are trends, Bet the trends, 354 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 3: you know, know the trends and bet them. 355 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 2: We'll have a second part to this podcast, Betting the News, 356 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: more in depth discussion on strategy for success. Part one 357 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 2: rolls on. We kind of touched on this when we 358 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 2: were talking about, you know, sharps, first squares and how 359 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 2: the money comes in. Is there a concern about bigger 360 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: money compromising the integrity of these markets? Are there are 361 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 2: there limits? Is there a concern level ever? 362 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 3: Well, I mean the government's concerned and there are limits 363 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 3: because of that. So the two big on shore books, okay, 364 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 3: they might object to being called books, two big on 365 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 3: chore books. 366 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 2: Predicted what they want to be called. 367 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 3: Well, the second one that I'm going to talk about 368 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 3: claims to own like a unique asset class, you know, 369 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 3: like derivatives or futures or something like that. So we 370 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 3: could quibble about what that means. But predicted is capped 371 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 3: at eight hundred and fifty dollars a bet. Now the 372 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 3: markets are structured so that you can make multiple bets 373 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 3: within the market. We can talk about that some other time. 374 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 3: The second legal onshore book is called Calshi. Calshi has 375 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 3: a more permissive regulatory structure and clears up to twenty 376 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 3: five thousand dollars of action per line. Calshi it's like 377 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 3: it's spelled like the whole food Cereal. They've got like 378 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 3: thirty or one hundred million dollars or some astronomical amount 379 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 3: of Silicon Valley Fundy money in their pocket. Bloomberg's always 380 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 3: writing about them. You know they're real, even if their 381 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 3: name makes you say what. And then there are various 382 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 3: offshore books blockchain books that, as you might suspect, have 383 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 3: basically no rules at all. 384 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 2: So a lot of what we've discussed on part one 385 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 2: of betting on the News is reactionary, meaning, okay, here's 386 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 2: a headline, how am I using you? As an example, 387 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 2: Alex Keeney going to react to it from an not 388 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 2: using your heart, but using your head. But bigger picture. 389 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 2: Another question we have for you is do you see 390 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 2: the markets having an impact on the future of news, 391 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: like how the news ends up being delivered positively or negatively? 392 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 3: Well, I think it already is, and you certainly saw 393 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 3: this in sports, Like you know, ten years ago, it 394 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 3: was like really weird to hear someone talking about betting 395 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 3: lines on ESPN, And now it's sort of part of 396 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 3: the package. You know, polls failed so magnificently in twenty 397 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 3: sixteen and twenty that this is now something you see 398 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 3: commentators refer to, at least online and sometimes on TV too. 399 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 3: So betting markets already exists, is a different way of 400 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 3: analyzing politics, and I think that that will only increase 401 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 3: as time goes on. And it's certainly the success we're 402 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 3: finding it at Starsmangled Gamblers. 403 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 2: Just a sports example I just thought of off the 404 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 2: top of my head. We just saw the NBA draft 405 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 2: happen and the unbelievable swings on who was going to 406 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 2: go number one on the draft to Jabari Smith or 407 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 2: Palo Bancaro of Duke it was ban Cao, but Adrian 408 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 2: Wojnarowski of ESPN is the go to NBA guy reporting 409 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 2: and for much of the day, just the way the 410 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 2: market fluctuated because of that reporting, it makes you wonder, though, 411 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 2: where his information is coming from. So I just if 412 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 2: you could just dive a little deeper into how that 413 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 2: path of how is the path of the news making 414 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 2: its way to the surface. 415 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 3: So I mean, are you basically asking me, like, who 416 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 3: are the people who make markets like when this person 417 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 3: tweets or that newsletter hits. 418 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, because I think I think a lot 419 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 2: of people that do bet on sports are active on 420 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 2: social media to get news. That's a big part of it. 421 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 2: For the casual sports better that might be interested in 422 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 2: this and predictive markets, well maybe they're like, hey, how 423 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 2: can I do what I'm normally doing in my normal 424 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 2: routine to bet sports, to keep that same routine and 425 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 2: maybe apply it to this. 426 00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 3: First of all Star Spangled gamblers is the cheat code. 427 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,360 Speaker 3: We sort of synthesize all this information for everyone else. 428 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 3: But secondly, everyone who bets on politics wakes up in 429 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 3: the morning and they read punch Bowl News, which is 430 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 3: curated by some old Politico beat reporters. Jake Sherman's kind 431 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 3: of like the Queen Bee over there. Follow him on 432 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 3: Twitter as well. Anytime Jake Sherman tweets Markets move Politico 433 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 3: Playbook isn't what it used to be, but that's another 434 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 3: newsletter that basically everyone who trades reads Axios breaks a 435 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 3: lot of stories. Chad program over at Fox, I could 436 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 3: keep listening names. The point is is that, like once 437 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 3: you get into the tent, it's very easy to get 438 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 3: to level one. You know, Level one is knowing is 439 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 3: exactly the questions you're asking, and of course it's arsmangled gamblers. 440 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 3: We help our listeners get there. That's what we do. 441 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 2: Excellent, great stuff. We are not done with Alex Keeney 442 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 2: folks on the Action Network podcast Part two of Betting 443 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 2: on the News we get into Strategy for Success, will 444 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 2: break down strategy around how to profit in the world 445 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 2: of political investing in trading, Plus Alex will provide some 446 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 2: tips and picks for markets that are currently being offered. 447 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 2: So yeah, the stuff that you can get some action 448 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 2: on now, good stuff here in Part one for Alex 449 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 2: Keeny Brendan glass Sheen. Thanks for tuning in. Be sure 450 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 2: to hop on over and check out Part two when 451 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 2: this one's over, and again thanks for tuning in as 452 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 2: always to the Action Network podcast