WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 8 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 21) 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:11.240 Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.000 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:15.960 Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:18.400 Harris Ady. It is time to break down some of 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:21.240 our favorite and our least favorite bets for the weekend 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:23.400 at NFL Slate. With me to do it all is 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:27.160 Ian McMillan, a writer for oddshark dot Com. Ian runs 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:29.440 the gamut over there in terms of his coverage way 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:32.040 beyond just the NFL. You can find him on Twitter 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:34.800 at Ian mac os. And I'm going to spell that 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.159 for you because you will never get it right. I 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:41.600 A I N m ac Os. He can explain that 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:43.600 if you'd like. Ian, Thank you for joining me today. 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:44.120 How's it going. 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:46.680 It's going well, Dan, Yeah, happy to be here, Happy 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:48.479 to be back. I believe is week one there the 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:50.000 first time I was on, Hopefully it can do a 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:51.520 little bit better. I think I was one for two 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:54.600 with my side bets there that week. So but do 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.040 you go. I'm gonna go perfect sweet sweep this week. 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:58.560 I can almost guarantee it. 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:01.360 I love the confidence and we really need it because 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.800 last week was a complete disaster for us. I mean, 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:06.960 I mean I missed. I'm just gonna put it out 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:09.720 there because sometimes I sweep. Sometimes it's great. Last week 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.240 was terrible for me. I missed on all three of 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.840 my picks, with the Bears and Saints under thirty eight 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:17.319 and a half, the forty nine ers laying nine to 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:19.480 the Redskins of Lough to be fair that pushed, and 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:21.679 the Bills and the Dolphins under forty and a half. Now, 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.040 I did hit on the top prop, which was Leonard 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:26.759 Fournette over one hundred and twenty four yards rushing at 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.480 plus two fifty, so hopefully that made up for a 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:32.360 bit our guest. Meanwhile, Matt Perrault was not much better. 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:34.240 He missed on both the Eagles plus two and a 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.880 half against the Cowboys and the Jets getting nine and 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.120 a half from the Patriots. He did hit in the 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.920 Colt Slang one to the Texans, and that was after 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:45.319 again a near perfect week the week before. So let's 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:47.120 just jump back on the horse and get this nonsense 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:48.960 straight out. It sounds like you're ready to go, so 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.320 we're gonna get right into it. Okay. As always, We're 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.960 gonna get started with pick six, where both Ian and 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.080 I are going to give three of our favorite bets 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.360 for this weekend, either against the spread or on the 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:00.440 over under. And as always, I'm gonna know that we're 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:02.640 recording this on Thursday night, so we will not be 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:05.640 making any picks on the Vikings Redskins game. But if 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:07.880 you want to see how I picked that game, you 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:09.799 can go to betting pros dot com. That's gonna show 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.239 you how I and every single betting expert who makes 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.600 picks on the site made their picks for that In 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.840 every game, we are also going to be using the 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:20.359 bettingpros dot Com consensus odds and making our picks. Those 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:23.080 are the aggregate odds that you're gonna find available in 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:25.959 the market, so they're constantly shifting depending on where things 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.720 are at the various sportsbooks. All right, Ian, let's go 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.200 start us off with's your first pick here? 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:32.560 Okay, my first pick, my favorite pick for the week. 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.600 I'm gonna take the Eagles plus one point five over 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:39.080 the Bills. So I believe actually mentioned this the first 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:40.480 time I was on right before a week one of 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:42.880 the seasons that Buffalo Bills were actually my pick for 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:45.799 being the most like the most surprising team this season, 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:49.040 and they've actually proven that they are, but I do 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:51.639 think they are being a little bit overvalued in the spot. 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:53.120 I do think they're gonna make the playoffs. I think 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.000 they're gonna be a wildcare team, but they're going up 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:57.000 against an Eagles team that's on the other side of 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:00.480 things where they're undervalued, especially after that ugly performance against 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.560 the Cowboys there on Sunday Night. We need to judge 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.320 teams based on talent, and you need to not let 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:08.440 recent games affect you. The weird thing about betting on 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:10.160 the NFL that not a lot of people really talk 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.440 about have mentioned is that the sample size is so small. 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.560 In like the MLB season, I would never place a 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:19.160 bet until at least ten to fifteen games into the season, 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:23.080 and the NFL we get sixteen games total before the playoffs, 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:25.520 so it's a small sample size. So you can't let 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.799 recent games affect your bias. So that's what I'm doing here. 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.720 The Eagles are the more talented and skilled team over 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:34.280 the Bills in my opinion. Don't forget, they had a 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:36.240 road win against the Packers this season, so they do 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:39.880 know how to win on the road. So I like 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.200 the Eagles, especially as a slight underdog in the spot, 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:44.960 so give me them plus one point five in Buffalo. 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:47.720 Okay, So I'm gonna be honest, I consider taking this 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:49.760 game as well as always. You guys know, I have 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.800 our guest email me their picks shortly before we go on, 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.640 so don't steal anything from them. Accidentally, this one was 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:58.360 definitely under consideration for me. One of the things that 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:00.360 kind of stuck out to me is that the one 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:02.400 and a half points spread, you know, given the fact 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:04.280 that I mean, I guess the Bills didn't look that 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:07.400 great this weekend against Miami, but you know, they certainly 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:09.520 did what they need to do, and the Eagles looked 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:12.840 absolutely horrendous right against Dallas. The line did not move. 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:15.560 Usually after something like that, like with the Jaguars and 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.080 the Jets, where the Jets immediately lost a point and 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:20.600 a half on the spread and where the Patriots moved 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:22.719 up about three points on the spread, you know, given 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:24.640 what the public's going to react to it, the Eagles 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:26.279 and the Bills didn't move. They were at one and 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:27.800 a half before that game, they were at one and 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.320 a half after that game. So that is a sign 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:32.719 to me that in the end, you know, at least, 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:36.240 the odds makers are probably feeling relatively bullish on where 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.080 they mark the Eagles going in and when you look 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:40.240 at the Bills, I too in the preseason. As I 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.760 remind Jason Logan whenever he comes back on this podcast, 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:44.480 I like them over. I believe it was six and 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:46.640 a half wins. I felt pretty good about them especially, 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:48.600 but that was a lot of it because of their 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:51.000 schedule and when you look at who they've played. They've 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.760 played the Jets, they played the Giants, they've played the Bengals, 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.200 they've played the Dolphins. It's not exactly a murderer's role here. 0:04:57.240 --> 0:04:59.600 So I am inclined to go with you. I'm a 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:01.479 little glad that you took it so I didn't have 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.119 to because I feel just a little skittish. It doesn't 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:06.760 look like the Shan Jackson is coming back. The Eagles 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:08.800 just look like they are in disarray. But the big 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.000 thing about the Eagles, for me at least, was they 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:13.200 can really stop the run. Right, That's the one thing 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:15.560 that they have been able to do well consistently this 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.679 whole season. They really struggle in the secondary, but that's 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:22.159 not exactly where Josh Allen and his you know wildly inaccurate. 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:24.840 Arm is really going to make his mark, So I'm 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:26.039 certainly inclined to agree with you. 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.440 Yeah, exactly. Those are great points he made, and especially 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.440 with the strength of schedule. That was one thing I 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:32.560 didn't mention there is that the wins this season have 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:34.839 come against teams that are combined I believe six and 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:37.880 twenty seven if my math is right. So because of that, 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:39.680 I think they're being a little bit overvalued. And like 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:42.800 you said, Eagles run defense is definitely their strength. Yeah. 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:44.920 Now, I mean I do get a little nervous betting 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:46.960 against teams in Buffalo. I mean it's not the weather 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:48.200 is in the factory yet, but I did go to 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.840 school there and they are insane because that's pretty much 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:52.440 all they have there. But still I agree with you. 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:54.040 I'm on board. I'm glad I didn't have to take 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:55.880 it though, because I felt a little squishy about it. 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:57.599 But I'll back you there. With the Eagles getting one 0:05:57.640 --> 0:05:59.760 and a half for my first pick, I'm going to 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:03.000 take the Panthers getting six from the forty nine ers. 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:04.800 I talked about this a bit with Alex kalo J 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:07.120 when we were talking when we were taking a look 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.640 at the opening lines on Monday, and six struck us 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.160 as a little bit too high. Now it ad dropping 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:15.560 to about five right about when we were about to record, 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.760 and for that I got a little iffy on it. 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.240 But it's back up to six and I feel pretty 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:23.320 good about it. The Panthers, to me, are just a 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.400 very very good football team. They've won four straight and 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:28.400 they're coming off a bye here, and I think with 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.960 this offense we kind of forgot how good it can 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.120 be when Norv Turner came on board. Remember there were 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.320 six and two last year before Cam Newton got hurt, 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:37.440 and he was having a very solid year with an 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.640 excellent completion percentage before the injury. Then he just couldn't 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:42.719 throw to finish last year. He couldn't throw to start 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.400 this year. So obviously things look stagnant. But now you've 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:47.520 got Kyle Allen in there, and he's not a superstar 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:49.840 by any means, but he is a capable quarterback who 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:52.760 can move the ball complete shorter passes, and that's really 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.040 all they need with extra time to prepare coming off 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.840 the by the extra time also gets them healthier here. 0:06:57.880 --> 0:06:59.240 I mean, it sounds like Turner is going to be 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.640 back from his angle in on their offensive line, which 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:03.560 should be a boost. The secondary looks like they'll get 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:06.320 back Dwantae Jackson, and they've had a great pass defense 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:09.159 all year anyway. James Bradbrier has played extremely well. Ross 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:11.400 Cockrell has picked it up with late. So it used 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:13.240 to be like you couldn't you didn't want to pass 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:14.880 on them, you'd attack them on the ground. But they've 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:17.440 cleaned that up a little bit over recent weeks. They 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:19.160 were able to get pressure and I think in this 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:22.400 matchup particularly that's important because the forty nine ers are 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:24.240 pretty beat up on their offensive line. And when you 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:25.840 look at the forty nine ers, who are of course 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:28.800 undefeated for the most part, they have not been great offensively, 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.160 especially lately. I mean, they've been winning with their defense. 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:32.640 You want to throw out last week because it was 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:34.760 in the monsoon against the Redskins. I'm fine with that, 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:36.800 but they didn't put up a ton of points the 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.960 week before that against the Rams. It's mostly just the defense. 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.760 Now they've added Emmanuel Sanders. That's fine, but I mean 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:45.000 he's gonna play, but he's not gonna be able to, 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.120 you know, play the whole game. He doesn't know the playbook, 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:50.400 yet they're down Deebo Samuel probably Marky's Goodwin is dealing 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:52.320 with the concussion. And you know, again they've been winning, 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.280 but that injury to Kylie Uscheck. When you look at 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:57.040 their running game, how they've been it has really impacted it. 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:59.320 The fact that they're winning kind of masks all that. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:01.960 Even though the volume is still there with their running backs. 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:03.800 I mean, Tevin Coleman in particular, is getting a lot 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:06.080 of carries. It's not a great yard per carry average. 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:07.880 They're not moving the ball all that well. In the end, 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:10.400 this just strikes me as a really really close game 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.440 with the Panthers coming off of bye. Again, if it 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:14.160 was four four and a half, which is where it 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:16.200 looked like it had been moving at the time that 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:18.080 we recorded on Monday, I was a little iffy on it. 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:19.640 But at six, I'm gonna take that. 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:21.520 Yeah, I love that pick a lot. I mean, the 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:23.800 forty nine ers week in and week out of just 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.280 I'm not a huge believer in them. Like you kind 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.040 of mentioned, their offense is slowed down a little bit. 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:30.720 It seems to me like every time they play a team, 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:34.040 that team doesn't play well. Now, is that because the 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:35.880 other team's not playing well or is that because their 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:37.520 defense is that good that it makes it seem like 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.440 the other team's not playing well. But I'm still on 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.160 that point where I'm just gonna I'm gonna bet against 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.520 the forty nine ers because I just don't think they 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:48.000 are as good as the record shows. So I like 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:48.440 that pick. 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:49.960 I don't want to take too much away from them 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:51.640 because I do like them, I really do. I do 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:54.679 think the used check injury really really hampers their running game. 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:56.920 And again, you know they have a good but their schedule, 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.680 you know, the Bucks are certainly not impressive. The Bengals 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.680 are the Steelers. We're dealing with, you know, a rookie 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:05.960 quarterback with Mason Rudolff. The Browns are a disaster. The 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:08.120 Rams were missing Todd Gurley, I believe in that game, 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:10.600 and their offensive line is terrible. And then the Redskins, 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:12.800 so it's not this murderers row that they've gone through 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:14.280 a little bit like we're talking about with the Bills. 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:16.319 So for me, I'm willing to take the value here 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:19.320 because I've really much more been impressed with Carolina. All right, 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:21.280 let's move on to your second pick. What do you got. 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.240 Okay, So for my second pick, I'm gonna take a 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.760 total play. I'm gonna be taking the under forty one 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.760 in the Jets in Jaguars game. The first major point 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.559 that's the most obvious. The Jets are brutal on offense. 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.440 They are tied with the Dolphins for the lowest gording 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:39.480 team the league, only getting ten point five points per game. Now, 0:09:39.520 --> 0:09:41.600 I do recognize that Fulk was a quarterback there for 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.839 most of their games so far the season, but I mean, 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:45.840 we just saw what happened with Sam Darnold there on 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:48.800 Monday night. He's seeing ghosts, So I don't. 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.440 By the way, I mean he has to do something 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.160 with Ghostbusters for Halloween, right, I mean that that is 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:56.040 a guarantee. Right, he should go as the state pub 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.360 marshmallow Man or something like that. Just just mix it 0:09:58.440 --> 0:09:58.920 up a little bit. 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:00.480 Yeah, And I feel like if you have she makes 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:02.760 like a self deprecating joke about it, then people will 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:05.559 stop kind of making fun of him for it. 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:07.240 I do want to pass. I do want to point 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:09.400 out just because I'm a Jets fan and you know, 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.680 I've got it. He actually gave a great press conference 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.040 today where he fully owned it. He totally took it, 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:16.440 so it makes me a little happy. Anyway, go ahead, 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:17.240 I'm sorry, keep going. 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:19.920 Yeah, I mean, not even to get two sidetracked on it. 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:21.200 But really, I don't think it's that big of a 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:22.960 deal that he said it. He's going up against one 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.480 of the the best defense in the league on primetime football. 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:26.960 I mean, that kind of stuff just happens for a 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:30.480 young quarterback. But yeah, completely agree. So under forty one 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:32.600 with the Jets and Jaguars, Jets are only scoring ten 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:35.920 point five points per game, and if you've watched Jaguars games, 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:37.920 I mean they're they're not too much better as far 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:39.439 as points per game. I think they're twentieth in the 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.920 league at twenty point six points per game. But they're 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:44.280 not really like this air raid offense. Gardner Minsho's like 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:46.800 he's a real game manager. They slow the game down. 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:49.240 They've been feeding Leonard Fournett quite a bit, which, of course, 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.040 you know, if they run the ball, that keeps the 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:54.800 clock moving. The quicker the clock moves, the less opportunity 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:58.439 there are for points scored, and that's when unders usually hit. 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:02.400 And Jaguars are eighth in time of possession as well, 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.840 so that kind of proves that fact, and between the 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.679 two teams for their average combined scores, that Jets are 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:10.960 averaging combined score in their games at thirty six point 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:14.800 five Jaguars at forty one point seventy one combined points 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.199 per game, So both teams would have to have an 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.120 above average mark compared to the rest of games this 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.520 season for that total to go over. So I like 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.280 the under forty one. There. I'm just kind of a 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:28.120 I like unders in general. I pretty rarely bet overs 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:31.120 in the NFL, just because I think books kind of 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:33.320 entice it to take overs because they're funder to bet, 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:34.839 so I just kind of like to go in the 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:36.680 opposite side of that. I like taking under. So this 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:38.800 is my favorite underspot for the week with the Jet, 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:39.640 Jets and Jags. 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.200 Yeah, that is a great point that. I mean, lines 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:45.079 are designed because they know that the public loves overs. 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.160 Who wants to bet an under that's so boring that 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.640 you're rooting again to go right exactly. So I agree 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:52.600 generally speaking, I like to bet the under when I can. 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:54.640 I agree with you here. Also, I mean I don't 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:57.280 feel overly strongly. I kind of like the Jets getting six, 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:58.960 but I'm not gonna that's not one of my picks 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:00.920 or anything like that. I do expect this to be 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:05.640 a relatively close scoring game. The Jets, look, I mean CJ. 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.880 Mosley may probably you know, reinjured his growing. I don't 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:10.640 know if he's gonna play here. But either way, even 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.360 without him, the Jets are pretty solid against the run. 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:15.360 That's the one thing that they've been able to do 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.400 well this year on defense. And with that, you know, 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.560 the Jaguars they want to rely on Fournette, Minshew magic. 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.200 I mean it's fading a little bit. I mean, you know, 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.679 a Djhark has been good. Dede Westbrooks ceiling was a 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:28.640 little bit of an injury. I think he's gonna play, 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:30.240 But you know, it's not as if they have this 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:32.880 explosive passing game, which is really in the end where 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:34.680 you're able to attack the Jets. As for the Jets, 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.640 they're not gonna look as inept offensively as they looked 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:40.280 against the Patriots. Hopefully, you know, the offensive line coach 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:42.959 is either fired or they understand that sometimes you have 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.360 to shift protection. I do expect a little bit of 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.200 a bounce back here, but again, you know they're in 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:50.280 Selmo they've got Robbie Anderson on the trade block already. 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.240 I don't expect this to be some sort of, you know, 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.360 magical offensive game. The Jaguars are solid on defense as well, 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:57.680 so overall, I agree with you here. I like the 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.600 under end. It's not one of my picks, but if 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:01.400 you're thinking thinking about it, I will say that I 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:03.760 personally do like the Jets a little bit getting six. 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.400 I think that recency bias is something, especially with how 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:07.920 terrible they looked it was at four and a half 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.200 before the game. I think people, you know, the line 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:13.280 moves immediately after a game like that. But in the end, 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:14.719 I think there is value with the Jets of six. 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:17.079 But I'm with you so far together. Unfortunately, Look, I 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:19.000 don't want to, you know, make you feel bad, but 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:20.920 I was with Matt on all three of his picks 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.319 last week and he basically he whiffed, So it might 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.280 be the kiss of death for you here. All right, 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.600 So on to my next pick number two. I'm interested 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.199 to see what you think about this one, because I 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.839 could see you not being fond of this. But I'm 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:34.400 gonna stick with the spreads here and I'm going to 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.160 take the Chiefs getting three and a half at home 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:40.079 against the Packers. This is another line that I liked 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.360 on Monday. It was at four, but as long as 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:44.600 it's above the key number of three, I'm still on 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.800 board with it. Now, the look aheadline before the Mahomes 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.560 injury was Chiefs by four. So this has swung more 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.840 than a full touchdown and it's crossed two key numbers here, right, 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.840 I mean it crossed from the Chiefs laying three to 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.199 the Chiefs getting three. The public is probably going to 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.120 go on the Packers here, which should immediately throw up 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.840 some warning signs. We all know about Andy Reid's success 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:05.920 off of buye. Now he doesn't actually have a buye here, 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.120 but he has the mini bye with the Thursday night game. 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.280 And look, forget about Patrick Mahomes practicing so far. He's 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:13.280 not gonna play this week. He's definitely gonna be out 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.480 at least this week, probably next week two. But Matt Moore, 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.440 I mean, he's not in the same conversation as Mahomes, 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.080 don't get me wrong, But in terms of backup quarterbacks 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:23.800 in the league, and of course this comes from a 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.160 guy who was watching Luke Falk be the backup quarterback 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:28.240 for his team all season. Matt Moore is one of 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.680 the better backup quarterbacks in the league, and he's got 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.480 ten days of full practice with the first team of offense. 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.440 Mahomes is taking second team reps. They're still Tyreek Hill, 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:39.880 there's still Travis Kelcey. It sounds like Sammy Watkins is 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:41.880 going to come back. The Chiefs are at home, They're 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:44.640 starting to get a little bit healthier. And really, when 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.280 you look at it, the Chiefs gave a pretty dominant 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:50.640 defensive performance against the Broncos on Thursday night, So you 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:52.760 might want to, you know, write that off and say, well, 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.120 the Broncos stink, But really, no other defense had shut 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.760 them down like that, particularly not in Denver, and particularly 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:01.560 not on a short week. And you look at why 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:03.840 the Broncos drove right down the field right on that 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:07.400 first drive they scored. They were shut down the entire 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:09.440 rest of the game. And why is that? It looked, 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.080 I mean, I was watching that closely, it looked like 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.800 the Chiefs just got a little more aggressive. They started 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:17.480 calling more blitzes, probably because they don't usually play as 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.880 aggressively when they have Mahomes in there, because so long 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.680 as they can just kind of hang around in there. 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:23.960 They've got enough offense to win the game. But you 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.120 know the blitzing. When they got more aggressive here because 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:27.640 they needed to, because they figured it was going to 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:29.720 be closer, it really worked for them, and I think 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.760 they'll at least continue with a more aggressive approach, especially 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.560 with Chris Johnes practicing and looking likely to return. On 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:37.680 the other side, the Packers are great, okay, but they're 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:39.880 still going to be down Devonte Adams. I'm sure I 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.040 know right now he's you know, fifty to fifty or 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.280 whatever they're calling him. I highly doubt he's going to play. 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:46.360 And this game against the Raiders, you know, a team 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.240 with no defense whatsoever, was really the first time that 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.680 they looked dominant offensively. And then you know, the receivers 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.040 were barely involved last week, Like NBS caught two long 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.960 passes and that's it. It was mostly these passes to 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:02.000 the running backs. Defense they're slipping a little bit. You 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:03.800 can beat them on the ground, you've always been able 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:05.800 to this year, but they're starting to be a little 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.680 vulnerable a bit in the passing game. You saw that 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:10.600 with Oakland, who could have put up a ton of 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:12.960 points had car not funneled through the end zone and 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.200 had they not turned the ball over another time deep 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.720 in the red zone. So for me, with Andy Reid 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.800