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Speaker 3: As we turn our attention to another major story, as
Speaker 3: we learned late yesterday that the senator from Connecticut, the
Speaker 3: former Senator Joe Lieberman, had died. We actually spoke with
Speaker 3: Joe Lieberman right here on Bloomberg Cayley and I did
Speaker 3: about six days ago on Balance of Power.
Speaker 4: This is an eighty two year old man.
Speaker 3: Of course, we've talked a lot about age in politics,
Speaker 3: most recently, but this was a man who truly was
Speaker 3: working up until his last breath as co chair of
Speaker 3: the group No Labels, which has been desperately searching for
Speaker 3: a candidate.
Speaker 4: As he told us just last week here, heus.
Speaker 5: We're still in pursuit of a couple of really good candidates,
Speaker 5: and we got to make the decision next two or
Speaker 5: three weeks. And when we do, hopefully we'll excite people
Speaker 5: and they'll say, you know what, this is her choice.
Speaker 6: I wanted.
Speaker 3: The senator who went from a long time pillar of
Speaker 3: the Democratic Party to an independent and of course ran
Speaker 3: as the vice presidential nominee alongside al Gore in two
Speaker 3: thousand has left us.
Speaker 4: He was eighty two.
Speaker 3: And we now bring in the Governor of Connecticut, Ned Lamont,
Speaker 3: who knew him awfully well. Governor, I appreciate your spending
Speaker 3: some time with us here. This is a politician who
Speaker 3: left your party. How do you want people to remember him?
Speaker 7: I think I liberated Senator Lieberman.
Speaker 6: We had a pretty frisky primary going back about sixteen
Speaker 6: years ago, and he ended up running as an independent,
Speaker 6: winning and we shook hands. It was a debate about
Speaker 6: the war in Iraq, but you have a debate about
Speaker 6: the big issue of the day, then the people decide.
Speaker 6: And we've been close ever since. And we're going to
Speaker 6: have a memorial service for Senator Lebram tomorrow. There's going
Speaker 6: to be a grid out pouring of support. Look, he
Speaker 6: was old school, right. He had relationships on both sides
Speaker 6: of the aisle, and you know, had strong convictions. You know,
Speaker 6: some fit neatly within the Democratic Party, some less.
Speaker 7: So he was his own man. That's how will be known.
Speaker 7: He was his own man.
Speaker 4: You beat him in that primary.
Speaker 3: Of course, did he do the right thing by moving
Speaker 3: on to run as an independent.
Speaker 6: He had the right to run as an independent. He
Speaker 6: said he might run as an independent even during that primary.
Speaker 6: So look, that was then, now's now. We shook hands
Speaker 6: at the end of that race. I saw him just
Speaker 6: a couple of months ago at the Alfalfa dinner. We
Speaker 6: talked about the war in Iraq where we disagreed. We
Speaker 6: talked about giving the Ukrainians the aid they need to
Speaker 6: support themselves, a place where we did agree.
Speaker 3: It was the Iraq war aforementioned that seemed to either
Speaker 3: pull him away from the Democratic Party or I think
Speaker 3: he would characterize it as a party that was leaving him.
Speaker 3: He will be remembered for his foreign policy acumen. What
Speaker 3: did he bring to the Senate and of the country
Speaker 3: in that regard.
Speaker 6: Well, I'll tell you, first of all, the decision to
Speaker 6: invade Iraq back in two thousand and three was quite bipartisan.
Speaker 6: I was a little more of the outlier by saying
Speaker 6: I think it's the wrong decision to make. But more importantly,
Speaker 6: remember Majoe b. Leeb meant for the state of Connecticut.
Speaker 6: He served us going back as a state senator in
Speaker 6: nineteen seventy and for decades he was there fighting on
Speaker 6: behalf of the people of the state. A whole variety
Speaker 6: of issues that he cared deeply about. The environment. He
Speaker 6: was such a leader there LGBTQ issues, back before they
Speaker 6: were less mainstream. He had the courage to stand up
Speaker 6: and make a difference there as well. Obviously was strong
Speaker 6: the defender of our defense system. We have some contractors
Speaker 6: here in the state, and he fought hard to make
Speaker 6: sure our navy base and submarines has stayed here in Connecticut.
Speaker 4: Well, that's a lot.
Speaker 3: He also continued to stay active in politics following his
Speaker 3: retirement as a lawmaker, and I've been awfully compelled by
Speaker 3: his journey with this group no Labels. We just played
Speaker 3: a snippet of our conversation with him from just last week.
Speaker 3: A lot of people have been criticizing him, a lot
Speaker 3: of Democrats for trying to spoil this race. When we
Speaker 3: spoke with him, he seemed to genuinely think that he
Speaker 3: was doing something in the name of democracy.
Speaker 4: What do you think.
Speaker 6: I think you can be independent minded and a man
Speaker 6: of your own convictions within the Democratic Party or within
Speaker 6: the Republican Party. I think it's a little confusing to
Speaker 6: bring in a lot of outside parties. I think that's
Speaker 6: probably not that helpful. I'm not sure I agreed on that.
Speaker 6: He certainly was some he was able to maintain his
Speaker 6: strong independence and stay true to himself within the Democratic
Speaker 6: Party for so many years.
Speaker 3: Well, he's obviously the end of an era for a
Speaker 3: lot of folks in Connecticut, but also here in Washington. Governor,
Speaker 3: I wonder if you can speak to the different era
Speaker 3: that we are in now, because we're seeing an important
Speaker 3: generational turnover that a lot of people are calling for.
Speaker 4: On the presidential level.
Speaker 3: May not have happened yet, but it's certainly been happening
Speaker 3: on the legislative level. What is that era that Joe
Speaker 3: Lieberman represented.
Speaker 7: I think it was more collegial.
Speaker 6: That's when people spend a lot more time together on
Speaker 6: both sides of the aisle. They eight meals together, they
Speaker 6: traveled together on a lot of these missions. That's where
Speaker 6: Joe became quite close with Senator John McCain and Lindsey Graham,
Speaker 6: the three amigos. Those relationships were powerful. I find today
Speaker 6: the relationships are less there. It's more ideological that's an
Speaker 6: eir I miss.
Speaker 3: I've got to ask you governors to stay between us
Speaker 3: if you want. Should John McCain have run with Joe Lieberman?
Speaker 3: This has been debated up and down. We all know
Speaker 3: how that race ended. He wanted his friend to run
Speaker 3: with him, and at the time it seemed outrageous the idea,
Speaker 3: just like it would now have a Republican tapping a
Speaker 3: former Democrat.
Speaker 4: What do you think about it?
Speaker 6: I think in hindsight, John McCain would have been much
Speaker 6: better off with Joe Lieberman as a running tape.
Speaker 3: Would you have supported that ticket? You wouldn't be allowed
Speaker 3: to do that as a Democrat, right, not a.
Speaker 7: Question of allowed to do it. I wouldn't have supported it. Remember,
Speaker 7: I came.
Speaker 6: Into this game thinking that, you know, George Bush's an
Speaker 6: invasion of Iraq was a terrible thing, not just for
Speaker 6: that country but for peace and Middle East.
Speaker 7: So I was not going to be supporting that ticket.
Speaker 7: But I think it would have been a stronger ticket.
Speaker 4: That's fascinating.
Speaker 3: We can have this conversation now with Governor Ned Lamont
Speaker 3: of Connecticut, and I really appreciate your candor on this.
Speaker 4: Governor, when's the last time you talked to Joe Lieberman.
Speaker 6: You know, we got together at the Alfalfa Dinner Dana Washington,
Speaker 6: d C. A few months ago and had a chance
Speaker 6: to catch up briefly, and we promised.
Speaker 7: We were going to get together soon. Unfortunately it's a
Speaker 7: his memorial service tomorrow.
Speaker 3: Well, we were all struck by his demeanor and the
Speaker 3: passion that he was still showing to the cause when
Speaker 3: we spoke with him just last week. This is, of course,
Speaker 3: due to complications from a fall. He was still looking
Speaker 3: pretty good and still had his wits about him, didn't he.
Speaker 7: I love it.
Speaker 6: I mean, I'm a guy who just turned seventy, so
Speaker 6: I love to see these folks, you know, playing it
Speaker 6: up at the top of their game.
Speaker 7: Here he was at eighty two, still making a difference.
Speaker 7: I say, go for it.
Speaker 3: It's not every day we spend time with the Governor
Speaker 3: of Connecticut, and I have to ask you a couple
Speaker 3: of things while you're with us in our remaining a
Speaker 3: couple of minutes here, Governor Lamont. This general election campaign
Speaker 3: that we've referred to by way of no labels is
Speaker 3: well underway now. Joe Biden's going to be in New
Speaker 3: York tonight with Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. I presume
Speaker 3: that you're supporting this ticket. What's your read on the
Speaker 3: race from your perch in Connecticut?
Speaker 6: My read is that America usually does the right thing
Speaker 6: after exhausting all the other options, and I think the
Speaker 6: right thing is going to be Joe Biden. I think
Speaker 6: people know them, I think people trust them. I think,
Speaker 6: especially in this very topsy turvy world, for our allies
Speaker 6: need to know there's America that they can count upon
Speaker 6: as the indispensable nation.
Speaker 7: It'll be a president Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: Does Bill Clinton help the party at this point? I've
Speaker 3: been describing this as the Mount Rushmore of democratic politics.
Speaker 3: But of course Barack Obama brings a lot to Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: Their relationship was important, and there are a lot of
Speaker 3: progressive Democrats who think Bill Clinton carries too much baggage
Speaker 3: to be helpful. Maybe it's a fundraising story. Is that
Speaker 3: something you've considered.
Speaker 6: Look, I think the three of them standing arm in
Speaker 6: arm together, I think they represent the best traditions of America.
Speaker 6: The Republican Party's pretty fractured right now. You're not going
Speaker 6: to see that story with former President Trump. I think
Speaker 6: it's important. You know, I know what Joe Biden stands for.
Speaker 6: He was vice president of Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton
Speaker 6: is part of that trio. I think it's important. It
Speaker 6: tells the story of the consistency of American values.
Speaker 3: They say, all news is local, governor, and I'm a Putnam,
Speaker 3: Connecticut boy, but I've got to ask you about this
Speaker 3: new congestion tax in New York. That's a lot of
Speaker 3: your taxpayers, a lot of people who live in Connecticut
Speaker 3: who are potentially going to be paying a lot more
Speaker 3: money to go south of sixtieth Street.
Speaker 4: Is it fair?
Speaker 6: Well, I'm sorry about your drive from Putnam, and it
Speaker 6: will cost you a little bit of extra money. I'm
Speaker 6: the one state that doesn't have tolls. Everybody else on
Speaker 6: the Eastern Sea Board has tolls, including New York. Then
Speaker 6: you go through Jersey, where they're raising Unfortunately, you've got
Speaker 6: to pay for transportation, or you can avoid the tolls
Speaker 6: and take public transportation.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So you don't see a problem with it in terms
Speaker 3: of folks being penalized for living in Connecticut or New Jersey.
Speaker 6: Hey, Look, the politics of it stinks, no question about it.
Speaker 6: But you've got to upgrade that transportation system and the
Speaker 6: subway system in New York.
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to find fault, well, Governor need Lamont.
Speaker 3: I appreciate your spending some time with us today on Bloomberg,
Speaker 3: your reflections on Joe Lieberman and the stories of the day.
Speaker 4: Good luck to your huskies tonight.
Speaker 7: It's going to be a big game, ton I. Thanks Joe.
Speaker 3: We'll be watching come back and see you soon. I'm
Speaker 3: the fastest show in politics. We have a lot more
Speaker 3: to follow here. Matt Bennett's going to chime in a
Speaker 3: little bit later from Third Way on the no labels issue,
Speaker 3: as well as what in the world is happening to
Speaker 3: our FK Junior's campaign and whether he can get on
Speaker 3: the ballot in all fifty states. Is he the real
Speaker 3: spoiler here? Chris Christi, by the way, says no to
Speaker 3: no labels. We'll have a lot more on it coming
Speaker 3: up next here on Bloomberg.
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Speaker 4: Great to have you with us.
Speaker 3: Welcome to Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and the satellite as we
Speaker 3: consider news now from the former governor of New Jersey.
Speaker 3: Thanks but no thanks. How's this for a statement? I
Speaker 3: appreciate the encouragement from Chris Christy. This is about a
Speaker 3: potential run on no Labels, and I will tell you
Speaker 3: we had it on pretty darn good sources that this
Speaker 3: might actually happen as recently as last week when we
Speaker 3: spoke with the now late Joe Lieberman. The statement goes on,
Speaker 3: der I also believe that if there is not a
Speaker 3: pathway to win, and if my candidacy is in any way,
Speaker 3: shape or form helping Donald Trump become president again, then
Speaker 3: it is not the way forward. I thought maybe Matt
Speaker 3: Bennett had written that for him. Of course, one of
Speaker 3: our frequent Democratic panelists here on the program, Matt Bennett
Speaker 3: at Third Way, is with us right now because Third
Speaker 3: Way has been working overtime to talk about this no
Speaker 3: Labels effort, and I think I could dare say, Matt
Speaker 3: snuff it out?
Speaker 4: Is this the end?
Speaker 8: We lost?
Speaker 4: Joe Lieberman? And I want to be sensitive here.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to be delicate around this, but he was
Speaker 3: a driving force behind this group and now the last
Speaker 3: great hope, it seems, of a candidate, and Chris Christy
Speaker 3: has said, no, are we done.
Speaker 8: We don't know.
Speaker 9: It's a free country that no labels wants to go forward,
Speaker 9: and they can find somebody to leave their ticket.
Speaker 8: They can, and at.
Speaker 9: Least so far, they are not saying anything about folding
Speaker 9: their tent. But to your point, they've suffered two serious glows.
Speaker 9: One the tragic laws of Senator Lieberman, who we all
Speaker 9: mourn as a great leader for this country, was also
Speaker 9: their founding chairman and was a driving force behind the group,
Speaker 9: but it didn't run at day to day. It's being
Speaker 9: run by their founder and CEO, Nancy Jacobson, and really
Speaker 9: this is going to.
Speaker 8: Be up to her.
Speaker 9: But the bigger problem, as you point out, is that
Speaker 9: they cannot find an A list candidate. They can't even
Speaker 9: find a B list candidate. They were floating a former
Speaker 9: lieutenant governor as their potential presidential candidate a couple of
Speaker 9: weeks ago.
Speaker 8: So stuff there.
Speaker 3: The great Jeff Duncan campaign that wasn't okay. This, by
Speaker 3: the way, was initially reported by the Washington Post, the
Speaker 3: Christie story.
Speaker 4: If we can't get.
Speaker 3: A candidate, that also means they probably can't count on
Speaker 3: the ballot in most places.
Speaker 8: Correct, that's right.
Speaker 9: They had said that they would be have ballot access
Speaker 9: by the end of last year in thirty four states.
Speaker 9: They now have it in eighteen, so they're way behind predictions.
Speaker 9: And there's a bunch of states where they can't even
Speaker 9: begin to get on the ballot until they name a
Speaker 9: candidate because of state rules, so they're.
Speaker 8: Really up against it. In fact, in New York they face.
Speaker 9: A looming deadline in a couple of weeks where they
Speaker 9: must have a candidate and they must submit their signatures,
Speaker 9: and it does not appear that they're ready to do that.
Speaker 9: So is there's some real questions about the logistics here.
Speaker 9: If they do pick a candidate, they are going to
Speaker 9: be handing that person an enormously difficult set of problems,
Speaker 9: not only to compete with a current president, a former president,
Speaker 9: and a Kennedy, but also to gain valot access in
Speaker 9: most places.
Speaker 3: Let's talk about it, Kennedy, because I want to ask
Speaker 3: you about this running mate. I'm fascinated by this sole story.
Speaker 3: The Nicole Shanahan element. And I've read some commentary in
Speaker 3: the wild already that came from you, so I think
Speaker 3: I know where you are on this. But in terms
Speaker 3: of No Labels taking a look at RFK Junior, is
Speaker 3: that a possibility?
Speaker 8: I don't think so.
Speaker 9: RFK Junior does not fit any of the metrics that
Speaker 9: No Labels had set for itself around kind of a
Speaker 9: unity ticket, and I'm not sure RFK Junior would be
Speaker 9: interested in the No Labels endorsement at this point, so
Speaker 9: I doubt it'll be them, the Kennedy Shanahan team. If
Speaker 9: No Labels goes forward, it will be with probably with
Speaker 9: somebody far less prominent to Kennedy.
Speaker 3: What does our audience need to know about Nicole Shanahan?
Speaker 3: This choice is interesting to me, and folks like yourself
Speaker 3: have tried to make clear that this is about ballot access.
Speaker 4: Tell us why.
Speaker 9: Without a doubt. I mean, Nicole Shanahan has three qualities.
Speaker 9: She is over the age of thirty five and born
Speaker 9: in the United States, which means she is constitutionally able
Speaker 9: to become vice president.
Speaker 8: And she's rich. She's got a lot of money.
Speaker 9: She is the former wife of one of the Google founders,
Speaker 9: and that allows them great flexibility because if you are
Speaker 9: the candidate or one of the candidates on a presidential ticket,
Speaker 9: you can give your campaign unlimited contributions. That's not true
Speaker 9: of anyone else in the presidential context. They're limited to
Speaker 9: twenty nine hundred dollars a person. But Shanahan can write
Speaker 9: enormous checks. And if they're going to be on the
Speaker 9: ballot everywhere or even most places, they're going to need
Speaker 9: those checks, and they're going to need them right away
Speaker 9: because they're kind of behind the eight ball.
Speaker 8: So this has no doubt. They pick this woman because
Speaker 8: of her money.
Speaker 4: Well, sounds kind of smart, then, right. She was married
Speaker 4: to last year, to Sergey Brinn, who you reference, the
Speaker 4: Google co founder who has a fortune estimated by Bloomberg
Speaker 4: News at one hundred twenty nine billion dollars. What could
Speaker 4: that means?
Speaker 8: You've got very bad lawyers. She's got a lot of
Speaker 8: that money. So yeah, so yeah, I.
Speaker 9: Think it's it is Well, it's smart from a political
Speaker 9: perspective because money helps in politics. But this is somebody
Speaker 9: that would be a heartbeat away from the presidency and
Speaker 9: she has absolutely no qualifications whatsoever to be president of
Speaker 9: the United States. I mean, she's a lawyer, and she's
Speaker 9: a financier of movies and stuff. I mean, she has
Speaker 9: literally no qualifications. And if you think about it, even
Speaker 9: the least qualified vice presidential candidates like Ann Quail and
Speaker 9: Sarah Palin, at least they've been senators and governors and
Speaker 9: she's done nothing.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 3: Fascinating to see Donald Trump try to frame RFK as
Speaker 3: a super lib to the left of Joe Biden. He says,
Speaker 3: it reminds me of Democrats buying ads to lift up
Speaker 3: the MAGA candidate. Is he worried about RFK Junior taking
Speaker 3: votes away?
Speaker 9: I don't think Trump is spending a lot of time
Speaker 9: worrying about this, and he's probably right not to know,
Speaker 9: but this strategy is wise on his part. I mean,
Speaker 9: what he really wants to do is ensure that RFK
Speaker 9: hurts by and at the moment, it appears that that's
Speaker 9: a likely scenario. I mean, Trump's core support is very solid.
Speaker 9: It's low, his ceiling is pretty low, but his floor
Speaker 9: is really hard, and so it's unlikely that RFK or
Speaker 9: any other third party candidate's going to hurt him much.
Speaker 8: But they definitely could hurt Biden.
Speaker 3: Spending time with Matt Bennett from Third Way, where he's
Speaker 3: executive vice president and a frequent as I mentioned, Democratic
Speaker 3: analyst on our panels here, Matt, it's not lost on
Speaker 3: me and our viewers looking at you on YouTube here
Speaker 3: see that Hillary.
Speaker 4: Banner in the background.
Speaker 3: I was at that convention when they made those And
Speaker 3: I'm just wondering ahead of Joe Biden's appearance tonight with
Speaker 3: Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. I know this is about
Speaker 3: the three presidents. Are you surprised that Hillary is not
Speaker 3: a bigger part of this? Are you surprised that Bill
Speaker 3: Clinton is?
Speaker 8: No, I'm not surprised by other of those things.
Speaker 9: I mean, Hillary Clinton is a huge and strong supporter
Speaker 9: of Joe Biden and doubt that she will do everything
Speaker 9: in her power to help him. But tonight was, you know,
Speaker 9: the president's and she's not a president. She came pretty close,
Speaker 9: you know, about forty thousand votes, but she's not a
Speaker 9: former president. So I don't think it's a surprise. And
Speaker 9: I'm also not at the least been surprised that Bill
Speaker 9: Clinton is helping Joe Biden. They are close allies, they
Speaker 9: always have been. Bill Clinton has been an advisor to
Speaker 9: President Biden, throughout his time in office, and so I
Speaker 9: think this is a very natural thing that's.
Speaker 8: Happening to me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've actually there's been reporting he talks to Bill
Speaker 3: Clinton more often than Barack Obama. I'm just, you know,
Speaker 3: thinking about the me too stuff. Young people look at
Speaker 3: Bill Clinton Matt a lot differently than baby boomers do.
Speaker 3: Does he bring baggage to the stage or you just
Speaker 3: don't look at it like that, knowing his fundraising prowess, I.
Speaker 8: Don't think so.
Speaker 9: I mean, I think when you compare, well, when you
Speaker 9: think about this in the context of this presidential election,
Speaker 9: you have one of the major party candidates who has
Speaker 9: been found by a court to be guilty of rape.
Speaker 9: So look, I mean, I understand that there's some baggage
Speaker 9: connected to Clinton, but not that. And also I think
Speaker 9: he brings a lot of upside with him as well.
Speaker 9: He's a brilliant political mind, and he remains pretty popular,
Speaker 9: certainly among the Democratic base. So I think he's really going.
Speaker 8: To help.
Speaker 3: And a monster organizer, I know when it comes to
Speaker 3: raising money, certainly, the influence through the Clinton Global Initiative
Speaker 3: is something that we.
Speaker 4: Have to acknowledge. Matt, I'm really glad you could join
Speaker 4: us today. Great to have you back. Come see us
Speaker 4: again in studios soon.
Speaker 3: Matt Bennett at Third Way where they have been awfully
Speaker 3: busy on this no labels issue.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
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Speaker 3: She is kaytie Linetime, Joe Matthew. We're in Washington. This
Speaker 3: is Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio. It's
Speaker 3: great to have you with us today. As we turned
Speaker 3: back to the campagntrail, Kaylie, we've been talking about this
Speaker 3: monster event tonight at Radio City. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton
Speaker 3: both on stage with the President of the United States.
Speaker 3: They're going to raise twenty five million dollars thanks in
Speaker 3: part to a photo line. If you want to photograph
Speaker 3: with all three. By the way, we're told by our
Speaker 3: own Josh Wingrove that Annie leeb of It herself is
Speaker 3: going to be taking the photographs one hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 3: for one picture. That's how you get that kind of money.
Speaker 3: And to your point, that's what twice what Donald Trump
Speaker 3: pulled in a month.
Speaker 10: Something like that twenty million he pulled in ink February
Speaker 10: the entire month.
Speaker 4: So one night versus million month, remarkable.
Speaker 3: With our eyes on the trail, I'm glad to say
Speaker 3: Cliff Young is with us from IPSOS. We refer to
Speaker 3: his polling and his research so often, and we've got
Speaker 3: a lot of questions for Cliff today.
Speaker 4: It's great to see you, Welcome back to the table.
Speaker 4: Nice to see you in Washington today.
Speaker 11: It's great to be here.
Speaker 3: So this fundraiser tonight brings our attention back to a
Speaker 3: general election campaign that everyone seems to have settled on.
Speaker 3: I'm going to ask you some questions about RFK Junior,
Speaker 3: But what we're hearing from No Labels is nobody wants
Speaker 3: to run.
Speaker 4: Are you settled on Trump v Biden?
Speaker 11: I think it's going to be Trump Vive Biden. There
Speaker 11: could be a third candidate. Those are the two primary
Speaker 11: front runners on each side. We're ratcheting up now, and
Speaker 11: you know we have a campaign. We have a dispute
Speaker 11: in front of us.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 10: As we talk about Trump and Biden, Joe mentioned at
Speaker 10: the very top of the hour that we did get
Speaker 10: consumer sentiment data today, it's the highest since twenty twenty one.
Speaker 10: It's improving. We actually saw the biggest improvement within a
Speaker 10: month going back to twenty twenty two. It does seem
Speaker 10: like feelings around the economy are starting to improve. The
Speaker 10: question is does Biden's prospects really improve with them? How
Speaker 10: close is that connection really?
Speaker 11: Yeah, this campaign, this electoral year was always going to
Speaker 11: be a very close one. We never had any doubt
Speaker 11: in respect to that. Obviously, times not in Biden's favor
Speaker 11: anytime it incumbents down because of the economy. The question
Speaker 11: is can you gain that ground quickly enough? But what's
Speaker 11: happening now is what we expect, and the economy is improving.
Speaker 11: People perceive that, and we're beginning to see, at least
Speaker 11: on the Biden side, glimmers of hope when it comes
Speaker 11: to numbers.
Speaker 4: Fascinating.
Speaker 3: The RFK factor is a real one, or at least
Speaker 3: it could be. You had did some research just about
Speaker 3: a week ago on this. He has since named a
Speaker 3: running mate, and we can talk more about the direction
Speaker 3: of his campaign. But when I start hearing Donald Trump
Speaker 3: try to frame the narrative around RFK Junior calling him
Speaker 3: left of Joe Biden. I'm starting to think that he
Speaker 3: is worried about this. Should he take it seriously.
Speaker 11: He should listen first and foremost, RFK represents a disaffected middle,
Speaker 11: whether it be ten percent, sixteen percent, somewhere in between
Speaker 11: at Ipso sometimes we ask the question without the name
Speaker 11: a nondescript third party individual, we get ten percent option cee.
Speaker 11: It is option the other option right beside the two
Speaker 11: any which anyone else but these two right. But ultimately
Speaker 11: there is a disaffected middle right. But that disaffected middle
Speaker 11: tends to be a little right of center at least
Speaker 11: by our polling, tends to be a little bit more conservative,
Speaker 11: tends to be a little bit more female, a little
Speaker 11: bit more suburban. Maybe the dobs A decision had an effect.
Speaker 11: So I think there should be worries on Trump's side.
Speaker 11: Obviously it's Biden's job to mobilize these disaffected voters, because
Speaker 11: they're really more likely to be his voters than Trump's.
Speaker 11: But that said, it makes total sense the way in
Speaker 11: which Trump is framing it today.
Speaker 10: Well, you talk about mobilization of these voters, and I
Speaker 10: wonder if the question we should be asking is not
Speaker 10: how many people will will turn out to vote for
Speaker 10: RF Junior or any third party candidate whatever option see,
Speaker 10: or whether they're just going to decide not to vote
Speaker 10: be because theoretically that's there. I just wonder if the
Speaker 10: choice is more do I vote or do I vote
Speaker 10: for this other person, rather than do I vote for
Speaker 10: this other person over Trump or Biden? Because are these
Speaker 10: individuals going to vote for Trump or Biden in any case?
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's both right that that third option in partment
Speaker 11: represents aspirations and so some of those that aspired to
Speaker 11: a third party individual third party candidate won't vote on
Speaker 11: election day. Polling tends to overstate the third party candidate,
Speaker 11: both in the United States and around the world.
Speaker 8: We do that everywhere.
Speaker 11: I think it will will will will minimize a bit,
Speaker 11: narrow a bit, I'll come down to sort of I
Speaker 11: think single digit numbers by election day. But ultimately it
Speaker 11: represents both both both those that would not vote and
Speaker 11: those might they would want to vote for a third party.
Speaker 3: Kingdon Nicole Shanahan is his pick for running mate. Of course,
Speaker 3: is married just last year to Sergate brinn Worth one
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty nine billion dollars. She is going to
Speaker 3: have the ability to donate an unlimited amount of cash
Speaker 3: as an actual candidate on the ticket to this campaign.
Speaker 3: Does that make it more legitimate? Are you expecting it
Speaker 3: to be on the ballot in all fifty states?
Speaker 11: It's very, very difficult to get on the bat in
Speaker 11: all fifty states, especially now. It takes time and there
Speaker 11: are a lot of limitations, a lot of barriers to
Speaker 11: entry when it comes to third party candids getting on
Speaker 11: the ballot. Obviously, money helps, and a lot of money
Speaker 11: helps even more. But ultimately it's going to be about
Speaker 11: resonance with public opinion. And once again we can't minimize
Speaker 11: the importance of the anti vote, the anti Trump vote,
Speaker 11: the anti Biden vote. At the end of the day,
Speaker 11: you might be disaffected, but do you really want Trump
Speaker 11: to win? Or do you really want Biden to win?
Speaker 11: Are you really going to throw away your vote when
Speaker 11: it comes to anti your anti candid feelings.
Speaker 10: I often get told when I ask questions about voter
Speaker 10: sentiment that not everyone's paying as much attention as we
Speaker 10: are here in Washington. Obviously, we've been in mess in
Speaker 10: this for what feels like forever, and we will continue
Speaker 10: to be so. But a lot of people are probably
Speaker 10: just now tuning in seeing that there is someone with
Speaker 10: the Kennedy name who is running, And I just wonder
Speaker 10: to what extent you think the support he may be
Speaker 10: drawing now will actually be lasting once the public gets
Speaker 10: to know him better. Whether it is just kind of
Speaker 10: a name recognition thing we may be seeing right now.
Speaker 11: I think it's partially that once again our experience, whether
Speaker 11: it be in the United States or in other countries
Speaker 11: with their party candidates, they tend to taper off as
Speaker 11: you get closer to election day, and it is the
Speaker 11: case that people are not paying attention at this point. Therefore,
Speaker 11: we should be very careful with the horse race bulls.
Speaker 11: The horse race boles are fuzzy at best. Other indicators
Speaker 11: like the main problem and approve of ratings are probably
Speaker 11: better leading indicators of what will happen. But ultimately we
Speaker 11: have to understand where we are. We're seven months out.
Speaker 3: Kayley mentions consumer sentiment today. Our Bloomberg newspoll that came
Speaker 3: out a couple of days ago actually showed improvement in
Speaker 3: the seven swing states, or at least several key states
Speaker 3: for Joe Biden, including Wisconsin. Is the trajectory in his
Speaker 3: favor based on your research. You look a couple of
Speaker 3: months down the road, where is it going to be.
Speaker 11: I expect this trend. Listen, these elections in the United
Speaker 11: States are very very close presidential elections. We have to
Speaker 11: remember that historically speaking, there's no way that Trump was
Speaker 11: going to win by as much as the polls are suggesting.
Speaker 11: This was a lag effect, in my opinion, in inertial
Speaker 11: effect of inflation. And the economy is improving, and that's
Speaker 11: what we're seeing right now. We're seeing sort of glimmers
Speaker 11: of hope. In some ways when it comes to the economy.
Speaker 11: You're less likely to punish the executive in power at
Speaker 11: the time, that is Biden at this point, and your
Speaker 11: numbers and all the numbers are suggesting this more positive
Speaker 11: trend for the Biden camp.
Speaker 10: All right, Cliff Young of IPSO, it's always great to
Speaker 10: have you here in our Washington studio. We appreciate your time,
Speaker 10: and it's worth considering, Joe as we continue to get
Speaker 10: this economic data, and including tomorrow when you and I
Speaker 10: won't be working yas it is a holiday and the
Speaker 10: markets will be closed, but we're still going to get
Speaker 10: PCEE data and here from Chairman Power and we know
Speaker 10: that interest rates and where they are come November when
Speaker 10: voters are heading to the polls could make a massive difference.
Speaker 4: That's absolutely right.
Speaker 3: We'll have special coverage on Bloomberg Radio eight thirty when
Speaker 3: that PCEE data are released, and we'll be of course
Speaker 3: carrying that in the next week. This endless conversation about
Speaker 3: the economy.
Speaker 1: You're listening to.
Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can just live weekdays
Speaker 2: at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with
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Speaker 10: I wouldn't call this a stealth rally because it's been
Speaker 10: going on for some time, but we're back at the
Speaker 10: highest level since October not something for WTI almost eighty
Speaker 10: three dollars a barrel, and obviously that is going to
Speaker 10: translate to the price paid at the pump, a pretty
Speaker 10: visible sign of inflation to the American people.
Speaker 3: You wonder when the oil stocks start to follow it.
Speaker 3: I guess they've started to pop a little bit. But yeah,
Speaker 3: so I paid three dollars twenty nine cents to Phillip yesterday.
Speaker 4: Okay, in northern Virginia, so DC.
Speaker 3: Area, Triple A has got a forecast of four dollars
Speaker 3: this summer. We're back to a four handle, right when
Speaker 3: people are starting to make up their minds or at
Speaker 3: least pay attention to this presidential cycle.
Speaker 10: Yeah, not great news for President Biden, who, of course,
Speaker 10: throughout his administration has been fighting very hard against higher
Speaker 10: oil prices, including the tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,
Speaker 10: encouraging American oil companies companies as well as opek other
Speaker 10: countries to pump more oil.
Speaker 3: We talked to Bob McNally quite a bit around that
Speaker 3: time when they were draining a good chunk of the
Speaker 3: spr Rapidan Energy is his company where he's president, formerly
Speaker 3: in the Bush White House, and he's with us now.
Speaker 4: Bob, it's good to see you.
Speaker 3: Do you buy into this four dollars a gallon forecast
Speaker 3: for summer?
Speaker 12: Hi, Joe and Kayley in many parts of the country. Yes,
Speaker 12: you know, rapid An's forecast on an annual Apple average
Speaker 12: basis or I should say national average basis is more
Speaker 12: like three to eighty, but three eighty nationally is still
Speaker 12: you know, in some swing states like Arizona, Nevada, that's
Speaker 12: a fore handle. As you heard in California, it's way above. So,
Speaker 12: you know, I think a lot of folks are going
Speaker 12: to be seeing four dollars a gallon, If not the
Speaker 12: whole country, you get the Midwest, down Texas, the lower
Speaker 12: East Coast, maybe it'd be a little less, but yeah,
Speaker 12: a lot of folks are going to be seeing four dollars.
Speaker 10: Well, it raises the question as to why exactly this
Speaker 10: is happening when prices had been coming down, now they're
Speaker 10: heading back up potentially to these levels. Is this an
Speaker 10: issue of the economy is still doing much better than thought?
Speaker 10: So demand is staying strong or is it an issue
Speaker 10: of supply or is it both?
Speaker 12: And Bob, I think it's mainly on the demand side,
Speaker 12: with some geopolitical risk in there. As always, the most
Speaker 12: important determinant of what we pay at the pump is
Speaker 12: the price of global crude oil. Crude oil has been
Speaker 12: finding its footing here after selling off Sharp Lake last year.
Speaker 12: Why there's confidence in a soft landing. Macroeconomic factors have
Speaker 12: had a big influence on oil prices. Crude oil folks
Speaker 12: are feeling better about a soft landing here. We even
Speaker 12: had some good Chinese data, and then we're starting to
Speaker 12: see the oil market tighten up. Inventories are drawing. Demand
Speaker 12: is good, even for gasoline in places like Europe, demand
Speaker 12: is not bad. And so as those inventory draws show up.
Speaker 12: OPEC plus has been extending its cuts, and now a
Speaker 12: little bit of geopolitical risk, not a lot, just a
Speaker 12: little bit, with the Ukrainian's hitting Russian refineries and the
Speaker 12: Red Sea. We're starting to see a solid base and
Speaker 12: a decent rally here. I don't expect it to go
Speaker 12: too much higher unless things get much worse in the
Speaker 12: Middle East. But we think oil has sort of found
Speaker 12: its footing crude oil, and where crude oil goes, pump
Speaker 12: prices follow.
Speaker 3: There were a lot of questions Bob following the bridge
Speaker 3: collapse this week in Baltimore about what impact that may
Speaker 3: or may not have on energy prices, knowing how much
Speaker 3: coal is coming out of that port. Do you have
Speaker 3: an answer to that question, Is this a factor or not?
Speaker 12: You know, it's a big deal for coal just because
Speaker 12: that's one of the biggest coal export ports we have,
Speaker 12: so that's the.
Speaker 4: Biggest lead over into oil prices.
Speaker 8: No, not really no.
Speaker 12: Baltimore. It gets its gasoline and diesel mainly from the
Speaker 12: Colonial pipeline. It does import some asphalt into Baltimore, but
Speaker 12: they'll root that in through some other ports like Norfolk.
Speaker 12: So I think it's a local issue. Unfortunately, with that tragedy,
Speaker 12: it's not even a regional, much less a national issue
Speaker 12: we should worry about for oil prices.
Speaker 10: Well, and if anything, the fact that there are so
Speaker 10: many containers trying to import an export out of Baltimore
Speaker 10: and all of the ports for that matter on the
Speaker 10: Eastern Seaboard may just underscore how intense global treat is
Speaker 10: and how much demand there still is for goods all
Speaker 10: around the world, which maybere you just reinforce the higher
Speaker 10: prices as well, kind of being a signal of the
Speaker 10: more resilient economy that we are talking about. And of
Speaker 10: course all of this does come back here here and
Speaker 10: washing two politics. We know that Biden has been plagued
Speaker 10: by high energy prices and prices at the pump. We
Speaker 10: talked about some of the things he tried to do
Speaker 10: to address that. What you hear on the other side
Speaker 10: of the aisle, including from his opponent in November, or
Speaker 10: presumed opponent, Donald Trump is that American energy needs to
Speaker 10: be unleashed, and Bob, I believe we already were, at
Speaker 10: least in twenty twenty three. Well, stee, if it's the
Speaker 10: case again this year pumping a record amount of oil
Speaker 10: here in the US. So when we are talking about
Speaker 10: American energy being unleashed, what exactly, what exactly would that mean?
Speaker 12: I think the President Trump is talking about removing unnecessary
Speaker 12: or burdensome restrictions on developing new oil resources, new refining capacity,
Speaker 12: pipelines and that type of thing more with a long
Speaker 12: term view. To your point, Kayleie, you're exactly right. Look,
Speaker 12: being a big producer doesn't mean you get to control
Speaker 12: the price at the pump. President Trump found that out.
Speaker 12: President Biden's finding that out. President Bush found that out.
Speaker 12: Big doesn't mean prices or comfortable prices, because the United
Speaker 12: States is basically a price taker in the global oil market,
Speaker 12: no matter how much oil we produce. The real you know,
Speaker 12: to paraphrase, I'm sorry, but maose tung power in the
Speaker 12: global oil market flows through the barrel of spare production capacity,
Speaker 12: and that's mainly in Saudi Arabia that's wielded by opek plus,
Speaker 12: they have more pricing power than the president. No matter
Speaker 12: how much we produce here, it's a tough truth for
Speaker 12: politicians to accept. You would think, if we're a big producer,
Speaker 12: we ought to be able to keep gasoline at three
Speaker 12: dollars and twenty cents forever. Doesn't work that way, Bob.
Speaker 4: Did we miss our opportunity to refill the spr.
Speaker 12: Yeah, you know, I think we made a mistake in selling,
Speaker 12: especially that one hundred and eighty million barrels we sold
Speaker 12: way too much. To its credit, Joe, the administration has
Speaker 12: been putting oil back in. I think they realized this
Speaker 12: thing is too low with all the mayhem we have
Speaker 12: in the world, and so they're putting in three four
Speaker 12: or so a million a month. However, they said, look,
Speaker 12: if prices keep rising, we're gonna stop filling the SPR
Speaker 12: And I'm afraid that's a real chance here, So we
Speaker 12: should have avoided the sale. It's good that Doe is refilling.
Speaker 12: Be great if we refilled faster, but if prices start
Speaker 12: rising here, they'll probably stop. And that's understandable too. What
Speaker 12: would be a big mistake is to again use it
Speaker 12: as an election ploy and spill it again, to release
Speaker 12: another sixty or ninety million barrels just because gasoline prices
Speaker 12: approach your four dollars handle. That would be just really unfortunate.
Speaker 10: What about over the longer term, as you talk about
Speaker 10: the opportunity to fill up the SPR, what if we
Speaker 10: actually need it not for price control, but for some
Speaker 10: kind of emergency. What kind of situation are we going
Speaker 10: to be in it If it's drained to a large extent,
Speaker 10: we're in trouble.
Speaker 12: We have drained our SPR to forty year lows, and
Speaker 12: it will be costly to refill it anywhere close to
Speaker 12: the six hundred plus million barrels, much less the seven
Speaker 12: hundred million barrels where we got it to w in
Speaker 12: the bush administrate. And as you mentioned, it's all about
Speaker 12: responding to a disruption. So if we get a few
Speaker 12: years down the road, demand doesn't peak, things are getting frothy,
Speaker 12: OPEC spare capacity goes down, and we have a conflict
Speaker 12: in the Arabian Gulf or somewhere else, we won't have
Speaker 12: that emergency buffer. That's why I think again, I'll give
Speaker 12: them credit to their credit. Doe is saying this thing
Speaker 12: is too low for a dangerous volatile oil world. We
Speaker 12: need to refill it, but I'm afraid there's not political
Speaker 12: will on either side of the aisle really to refill
Speaker 12: it fast enough to give us that buffer later this decade.
Speaker 12: We'll miss it, all right.
Speaker 10: We have to leave it on that note. But Bob
Speaker 10: McNally of Rapidan Energy, thank you so much as always
Speaker 10: for joining us on Bloomberg Television and Radio as we
Speaker 10: talk about energy, which certainly is a factor in this
Speaker 10: electoral cycle. Joe, It's something we hear a lot about
Speaker 10: from both sides, and we know once again prices at
Speaker 10: the pump do you have an influence on voter sentiment,
Speaker 10: how they're feeling about the economy as they prepare to
Speaker 10: decide who they want to vote for president? But energy
Speaker 10: in the economy is on what is a long list
Speaker 10: of issues that may change the minds of vote.
Speaker 4: Well, that's for sure.
Speaker 3: And then we see consumer sentiments today at the highest
Speaker 3: levels July, which you were smart to invoke earlier. Rick Davis,
Speaker 3: one of our political analysts who was on with us
Speaker 3: earlier this hour, always tells it's a more.
Speaker 4: Reliable poll than the polls.
Speaker 3: So even as oil prices increase, we're seeing sentiment on
Speaker 3: the rise as well, and I'm sure it's confounding some
Speaker 3: of the well I say, political the economic minds inside
Speaker 3: the White House.
Speaker 10: Yeah, although maybe both of that is a sign of
Speaker 10: a more resilient economy than thought. People might be feeling
Speaker 10: better about the economy because they still have their jobs,
Speaker 10: the economy is still growing, they can maybe afford the
Speaker 10: higher gas is their wages are rising, but definitely something
Speaker 10: of a puzzle. And we know that the economy is
Speaker 10: often top of mind, or at least up there on
Speaker 10: the list for voters. But we've found out throughout this
Speaker 10: primary cycle and now that we're effectively in the general election,
Speaker 10: that immigration in the border, yes, sometimes is equal to
Speaker 10: or even above that issue in many of these states.
Speaker 4: That's for sure. That's what our polling has brought to us.
Speaker 3: And as we learned on the ground in Iowa and
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, that was the case in both of those primaries.
Speaker 3: So it will certainly be near the top, if not
Speaker 3: the most important issue in the general election campaign. So
Speaker 3: not lost on us here, and that's why our bureau
Speaker 3: chief in Washington, Peggy Collins, made tracks to the border.
Speaker 3: Just returned recently from our southwest border in Texas's with
Speaker 3: the table now, Peggy, it's great to see you.
Speaker 4: This is going to be featured in our Big.
Speaker 3: Take podcast, Big Take DC podcast to be specific, that
Speaker 3: drops later today.
Speaker 4: I have no idea what's in store for us. What
Speaker 4: did you learn on your trip?
Speaker 5: Well, it was.
Speaker 13: A really impactful trip. As you were saying, Joe, we
Speaker 13: really wanted to go down to the border and talk
Speaker 13: to the people on multiple sides of the issue there
Speaker 13: because it has become other than the economy, one of
Speaker 13: the top two issues that voters are sighting in terms
Speaker 13: of what matters most of them in this election in November.
Speaker 13: And one of the things that really stood out when
Speaker 13: we were there was how porous the border is really.
Speaker 13: When you're there, you really see how close we are
Speaker 13: to Mexico and that the river is really the border.
Speaker 13: It almost felt some at some points like you could
Speaker 13: toss a baseball across and hit Mexico. One of the
Speaker 13: other things that really stood out is how much of
Speaker 13: a multi pronged effort it is to try and deal
Speaker 13: with the crisis of so many people coming across the
Speaker 13: border from places in Latin America. I mean, I went
Speaker 13: up in a helicopter with some people to try and
Speaker 13: see where they're seeing migrants crossing and how they're trying
Speaker 13: to deal with them. On Ranchers Land, for example, there's
Speaker 13: boats that are traversing back and forth. There's a people
Speaker 13: who are waiting for the migrants to potentially touch ground
Speaker 13: on US oil and then process them. There's nonprofits that
Speaker 13: are working with people who are coming across the border.
Speaker 13: There's city officials, there's religious people. It really is like
Speaker 13: a multi pronged effort, and time and time again we
Speaker 13: heard from people two key things. One that it is
Speaker 13: a humanitarian crisis, and two that's small towns like egle Pass,
Speaker 13: Texas where we were really need help because they're small
Speaker 13: border towns and they're dealing with an incredible volume of
Speaker 13: people that are coming across well.
Speaker 10: And it's worth pointing out that for that reason, the
Speaker 10: Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, has been really at the
Speaker 10: forefront of this issue, having the State of Texas do
Speaker 10: things that are legally in question now in regard to
Speaker 10: being able to detain people suspected of being having migrated
Speaker 10: over illegally. What sense did you get of the way
Speaker 10: that Texas is handling it and how much cooperation there
Speaker 10: really is at the federal level with what the state
Speaker 10: is doing.
Speaker 13: So when we were there, actually we went out with
Speaker 13: the Texas Department of Safety and we traveled along, drove
Speaker 13: along the border, and when you're actually with them, we
Speaker 13: don't really sense a lot of tension between the Feds
Speaker 13: and the state. Right but Texas has taken over this
Speaker 13: area right underneath a bridge that is a legitimate border
Speaker 13: crossing an Eagle Pass Texas. It's Shelby Park and basically
Speaker 13: there's a golf course there and there's a bridge and
Speaker 13: people traverse it every day from Mexico to the US,
Speaker 13: but also Texas the state has taken it over because
Speaker 13: as they say, they need more help than they need
Speaker 13: to get control over this. And it is difficult to see.
Speaker 13: I mean, there's a lot of constantina wire and razor wire,
Speaker 13: barbed wire up and down for miles in this Shelby
Speaker 13: Park area, but also up in some private lands. And
Speaker 13: you see we want to see some of the places
Speaker 13: where the migrants have been able to cross because there's
Speaker 13: an opening in the barbed wire and there's just piles
Speaker 13: and piles and piles of clothes. When they cross the river,
Speaker 13: they take off their wet clothes and then they keep
Speaker 13: heading on. But there's diapers, there's toothbrushes, there's clothes, there's
Speaker 13: kids backpacks, there's babies booties. I mean, it's really human
Speaker 13: when you see it, it's.
Speaker 3: Really something as you bring this to life for us.
Speaker 3: You were an eagle pass, you said, the center of
Speaker 3: the standoff, as our Texas Bureau chief Julie Fine refers
Speaker 3: to it. I think you guys were together on this trip.
Speaker 3: You already answered part of my question. I was going
Speaker 3: to ask you if you could see the razor wire,
Speaker 3: if you could see the buoys and some of these
Speaker 3: other obstacles that have been put in place that have
Speaker 3: been considered very controversial from a place where an average
Speaker 3: citizen or a journalist could go.
Speaker 4: Was that all in your view?
Speaker 12: We did see it.
Speaker 13: Yes, it is a striking to see it. You look
Speaker 13: over at Mexico at points and there's cows and horses
Speaker 13: and men fishing, and then you stand on the US
Speaker 13: side and you're looking right in the face of you know,
Speaker 13: barbed wire. But so many different people around those that
Speaker 13: we talked to, both law enforcement and people who were
Speaker 13: working with the migrants, and the migrants themselves did say
Speaker 13: that they're really trying to find a solution here because
Speaker 13: they understand how human it is.
Speaker 3: It drops today the Bloomberg Big Take DC podcast, with
Speaker 3: the great help of Peggy Collins.
Speaker 4: Thanks Peggy for being.
Speaker 10: With us, This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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