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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay.

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Speaker 1: And then Roudoro with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: As we turn our attention to another major story, as

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Speaker 3: we learned late yesterday that the senator from Connecticut, the

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Speaker 3: former Senator Joe Lieberman, had died. We actually spoke with

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Speaker 3: Joe Lieberman right here on Bloomberg Cayley and I did

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Speaker 3: about six days ago on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 4: This is an eighty two year old man.

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Speaker 3: Of course, we've talked a lot about age in politics,

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Speaker 3: most recently, but this was a man who truly was

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Speaker 3: working up until his last breath as co chair of

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Speaker 3: the group No Labels, which has been desperately searching for

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Speaker 3: a candidate.

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Speaker 4: As he told us just last week here, heus.

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Speaker 5: We're still in pursuit of a couple of really good candidates,

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Speaker 5: and we got to make the decision next two or

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Speaker 5: three weeks. And when we do, hopefully we'll excite people

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Speaker 5: and they'll say, you know what, this is her choice.

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Speaker 6: I wanted.

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Speaker 3: The senator who went from a long time pillar of

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Speaker 3: the Democratic Party to an independent and of course ran

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Speaker 3: as the vice presidential nominee alongside al Gore in two

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Speaker 3: thousand has left us.

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Speaker 4: He was eighty two.

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Speaker 3: And we now bring in the Governor of Connecticut, Ned Lamont,

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Speaker 3: who knew him awfully well. Governor, I appreciate your spending

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Speaker 3: some time with us here. This is a politician who

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Speaker 3: left your party. How do you want people to remember him?

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Speaker 7: I think I liberated Senator Lieberman.

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Speaker 6: We had a pretty frisky primary going back about sixteen

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Speaker 6: years ago, and he ended up running as an independent,

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Speaker 6: winning and we shook hands. It was a debate about

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Speaker 6: the war in Iraq, but you have a debate about

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Speaker 6: the big issue of the day, then the people decide.

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Speaker 6: And we've been close ever since. And we're going to

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Speaker 6: have a memorial service for Senator Lebram tomorrow. There's going

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Speaker 6: to be a grid out pouring of support. Look, he

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Speaker 6: was old school, right. He had relationships on both sides

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Speaker 6: of the aisle, and you know, had strong convictions. You know,

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Speaker 6: some fit neatly within the Democratic Party, some less.

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Speaker 7: So he was his own man. That's how will be known.

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Speaker 7: He was his own man.

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Speaker 4: You beat him in that primary.

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Speaker 3: Of course, did he do the right thing by moving

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Speaker 3: on to run as an independent.

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Speaker 6: He had the right to run as an independent. He

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Speaker 6: said he might run as an independent even during that primary.

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Speaker 6: So look, that was then, now's now. We shook hands

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Speaker 6: at the end of that race. I saw him just

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Speaker 6: a couple of months ago at the Alfalfa dinner. We

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Speaker 6: talked about the war in Iraq where we disagreed. We

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Speaker 6: talked about giving the Ukrainians the aid they need to

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Speaker 6: support themselves, a place where we did agree.

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Speaker 3: It was the Iraq war aforementioned that seemed to either

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Speaker 3: pull him away from the Democratic Party or I think

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Speaker 3: he would characterize it as a party that was leaving him.

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Speaker 3: He will be remembered for his foreign policy acumen. What

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Speaker 3: did he bring to the Senate and of the country

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Speaker 3: in that regard.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'll tell you, first of all, the decision to

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Speaker 6: invade Iraq back in two thousand and three was quite bipartisan.

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Speaker 6: I was a little more of the outlier by saying

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Speaker 6: I think it's the wrong decision to make. But more importantly,

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Speaker 6: remember Majoe b. Leeb meant for the state of Connecticut.

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Speaker 6: He served us going back as a state senator in

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Speaker 6: nineteen seventy and for decades he was there fighting on

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Speaker 6: behalf of the people of the state. A whole variety

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Speaker 6: of issues that he cared deeply about. The environment. He

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Speaker 6: was such a leader there LGBTQ issues, back before they

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Speaker 6: were less mainstream. He had the courage to stand up

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Speaker 6: and make a difference there as well. Obviously was strong

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Speaker 6: the defender of our defense system. We have some contractors

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Speaker 6: here in the state, and he fought hard to make

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Speaker 6: sure our navy base and submarines has stayed here in Connecticut.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's a lot.

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Speaker 3: He also continued to stay active in politics following his

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Speaker 3: retirement as a lawmaker, and I've been awfully compelled by

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Speaker 3: his journey with this group no Labels. We just played

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Speaker 3: a snippet of our conversation with him from just last week.

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Speaker 3: A lot of people have been criticizing him, a lot

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Speaker 3: of Democrats for trying to spoil this race. When we

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Speaker 3: spoke with him, he seemed to genuinely think that he

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Speaker 3: was doing something in the name of democracy.

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Speaker 4: What do you think.

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Speaker 6: I think you can be independent minded and a man

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Speaker 6: of your own convictions within the Democratic Party or within

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Speaker 6: the Republican Party. I think it's a little confusing to

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Speaker 6: bring in a lot of outside parties. I think that's

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Speaker 6: probably not that helpful. I'm not sure I agreed on that.

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Speaker 6: He certainly was some he was able to maintain his

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Speaker 6: strong independence and stay true to himself within the Democratic

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Speaker 6: Party for so many years.

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Speaker 3: Well, he's obviously the end of an era for a

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Speaker 3: lot of folks in Connecticut, but also here in Washington. Governor,

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Speaker 3: I wonder if you can speak to the different era

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Speaker 3: that we are in now, because we're seeing an important

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Speaker 3: generational turnover that a lot of people are calling for.

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Speaker 4: On the presidential level.

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Speaker 3: May not have happened yet, but it's certainly been happening

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Speaker 3: on the legislative level. What is that era that Joe

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Speaker 3: Lieberman represented.

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Speaker 7: I think it was more collegial.

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Speaker 6: That's when people spend a lot more time together on

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Speaker 6: both sides of the aisle. They eight meals together, they

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Speaker 6: traveled together on a lot of these missions. That's where

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Speaker 6: Joe became quite close with Senator John McCain and Lindsey Graham,

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Speaker 6: the three amigos. Those relationships were powerful. I find today

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Speaker 6: the relationships are less there. It's more ideological that's an

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Speaker 6: eir I miss.

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Speaker 3: I've got to ask you governors to stay between us

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Speaker 3: if you want. Should John McCain have run with Joe Lieberman?

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Speaker 3: This has been debated up and down. We all know

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Speaker 3: how that race ended. He wanted his friend to run

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Speaker 3: with him, and at the time it seemed outrageous the idea,

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Speaker 3: just like it would now have a Republican tapping a

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Speaker 3: former Democrat.

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Speaker 4: What do you think about it?

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Speaker 6: I think in hindsight, John McCain would have been much

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Speaker 6: better off with Joe Lieberman as a running tape.

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Speaker 3: Would you have supported that ticket? You wouldn't be allowed

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Speaker 3: to do that as a Democrat, right, not a.

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Speaker 7: Question of allowed to do it. I wouldn't have supported it. Remember,

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Speaker 7: I came.

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Speaker 6: Into this game thinking that, you know, George Bush's an

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Speaker 6: invasion of Iraq was a terrible thing, not just for

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Speaker 6: that country but for peace and Middle East.

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Speaker 7: So I was not going to be supporting that ticket.

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Speaker 7: But I think it would have been a stronger ticket.

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Speaker 4: That's fascinating.

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Speaker 3: We can have this conversation now with Governor Ned Lamont

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Speaker 3: of Connecticut, and I really appreciate your candor on this.

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Speaker 4: Governor, when's the last time you talked to Joe Lieberman.

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Speaker 6: You know, we got together at the Alfalfa Dinner Dana Washington,

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Speaker 6: d C. A few months ago and had a chance

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Speaker 6: to catch up briefly, and we promised.

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Speaker 7: We were going to get together soon. Unfortunately it's a

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Speaker 7: his memorial service tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Well, we were all struck by his demeanor and the

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Speaker 3: passion that he was still showing to the cause when

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Speaker 3: we spoke with him just last week. This is, of course,

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Speaker 3: due to complications from a fall. He was still looking

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Speaker 3: pretty good and still had his wits about him, didn't he.

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Speaker 7: I love it.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I'm a guy who just turned seventy, so

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Speaker 6: I love to see these folks, you know, playing it

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Speaker 6: up at the top of their game.

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Speaker 7: Here he was at eighty two, still making a difference.

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Speaker 7: I say, go for it.

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Speaker 3: It's not every day we spend time with the Governor

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Speaker 3: of Connecticut, and I have to ask you a couple

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Speaker 3: of things while you're with us in our remaining a

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Speaker 3: couple of minutes here, Governor Lamont. This general election campaign

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Speaker 3: that we've referred to by way of no labels is

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Speaker 3: well underway now. Joe Biden's going to be in New

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Speaker 3: York tonight with Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. I presume

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Speaker 3: that you're supporting this ticket. What's your read on the

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Speaker 3: race from your perch in Connecticut?

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Speaker 6: My read is that America usually does the right thing

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Speaker 6: after exhausting all the other options, and I think the

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Speaker 6: right thing is going to be Joe Biden. I think

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Speaker 6: people know them, I think people trust them. I think,

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Speaker 6: especially in this very topsy turvy world, for our allies

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Speaker 6: need to know there's America that they can count upon

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Speaker 6: as the indispensable nation.

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Speaker 7: It'll be a president Joe Biden.

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Speaker 3: Does Bill Clinton help the party at this point? I've

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Speaker 3: been describing this as the Mount Rushmore of democratic politics.

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Speaker 3: But of course Barack Obama brings a lot to Joe Biden.

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Speaker 3: Their relationship was important, and there are a lot of

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Speaker 3: progressive Democrats who think Bill Clinton carries too much baggage

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Speaker 3: to be helpful. Maybe it's a fundraising story. Is that

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Speaker 3: something you've considered.

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Speaker 6: Look, I think the three of them standing arm in

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Speaker 6: arm together, I think they represent the best traditions of America.

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Speaker 6: The Republican Party's pretty fractured right now. You're not going

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Speaker 6: to see that story with former President Trump. I think

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Speaker 6: it's important. You know, I know what Joe Biden stands for.

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Speaker 6: He was vice president of Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton

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Speaker 6: is part of that trio. I think it's important. It

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Speaker 6: tells the story of the consistency of American values.

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Speaker 3: They say, all news is local, governor, and I'm a Putnam,

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Speaker 3: Connecticut boy, but I've got to ask you about this

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Speaker 3: new congestion tax in New York. That's a lot of

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Speaker 3: your taxpayers, a lot of people who live in Connecticut

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Speaker 3: who are potentially going to be paying a lot more

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Speaker 3: money to go south of sixtieth Street.

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Speaker 4: Is it fair?

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm sorry about your drive from Putnam, and it

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Speaker 6: will cost you a little bit of extra money. I'm

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Speaker 6: the one state that doesn't have tolls. Everybody else on

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Speaker 6: the Eastern Sea Board has tolls, including New York. Then

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Speaker 6: you go through Jersey, where they're raising Unfortunately, you've got

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Speaker 6: to pay for transportation, or you can avoid the tolls

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Speaker 6: and take public transportation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So you don't see a problem with it in terms

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Speaker 3: of folks being penalized for living in Connecticut or New Jersey.

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Speaker 6: Hey, Look, the politics of it stinks, no question about it.

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Speaker 6: But you've got to upgrade that transportation system and the

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Speaker 6: subway system in New York.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not going to find fault, well, Governor need Lamont.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate your spending some time with us today on Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: your reflections on Joe Lieberman and the stories of the day.

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Speaker 4: Good luck to your huskies tonight.

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Speaker 7: It's going to be a big game, ton I. Thanks Joe.

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Speaker 3: We'll be watching come back and see you soon. I'm

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Speaker 3: the fastest show in politics. We have a lot more

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Speaker 3: to follow here. Matt Bennett's going to chime in a

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Speaker 3: little bit later from Third Way on the no labels issue,

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Speaker 3: as well as what in the world is happening to

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Speaker 3: our FK Junior's campaign and whether he can get on

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Speaker 3: the ballot in all fifty states. Is he the real

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Speaker 3: spoiler here? Chris Christi, by the way, says no to

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Speaker 3: no labels. We'll have a lot more on it coming

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Speaker 3: up next here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

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Speaker 2: Enronoo with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Great to have you with us.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and the satellite as we

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Speaker 3: consider news now from the former governor of New Jersey.

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Speaker 3: Thanks but no thanks. How's this for a statement? I

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Speaker 3: appreciate the encouragement from Chris Christy. This is about a

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Speaker 3: potential run on no Labels, and I will tell you

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Speaker 3: we had it on pretty darn good sources that this

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Speaker 3: might actually happen as recently as last week when we

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Speaker 3: spoke with the now late Joe Lieberman. The statement goes on,

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Speaker 3: der I also believe that if there is not a

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Speaker 3: pathway to win, and if my candidacy is in any way,

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Speaker 3: shape or form helping Donald Trump become president again, then

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Speaker 3: it is not the way forward. I thought maybe Matt

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Speaker 3: Bennett had written that for him. Of course, one of

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Speaker 3: our frequent Democratic panelists here on the program, Matt Bennett

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Speaker 3: at Third Way, is with us right now because Third

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Speaker 3: Way has been working overtime to talk about this no

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Speaker 3: Labels effort, and I think I could dare say, Matt

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Speaker 3: snuff it out?

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Speaker 4: Is this the end?

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Speaker 8: We lost?

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Speaker 4: Joe Lieberman? And I want to be sensitive here.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to be delicate around this, but he was

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Speaker 3: a driving force behind this group and now the last

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Speaker 3: great hope, it seems, of a candidate, and Chris Christy

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Speaker 3: has said, no, are we done.

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Speaker 8: We don't know.

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Speaker 9: It's a free country that no labels wants to go forward,

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Speaker 9: and they can find somebody to leave their ticket.

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Speaker 8: They can, and at.

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Speaker 9: Least so far, they are not saying anything about folding

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Speaker 9: their tent. But to your point, they've suffered two serious glows.

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Speaker 9: One the tragic laws of Senator Lieberman, who we all

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Speaker 9: mourn as a great leader for this country, was also

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Speaker 9: their founding chairman and was a driving force behind the group,

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Speaker 9: but it didn't run at day to day. It's being

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Speaker 9: run by their founder and CEO, Nancy Jacobson, and really

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Speaker 9: this is going to.

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Speaker 8: Be up to her.

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Speaker 9: But the bigger problem, as you point out, is that

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Speaker 9: they cannot find an A list candidate. They can't even

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Speaker 9: find a B list candidate. They were floating a former

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Speaker 9: lieutenant governor as their potential presidential candidate a couple of

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Speaker 9: weeks ago.

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Speaker 8: So stuff there.

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Speaker 3: The great Jeff Duncan campaign that wasn't okay. This, by

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Speaker 3: the way, was initially reported by the Washington Post, the

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Speaker 3: Christie story.

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Speaker 4: If we can't get.

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Speaker 3: A candidate, that also means they probably can't count on

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Speaker 3: the ballot in most places.

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Speaker 8: Correct, that's right.

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Speaker 9: They had said that they would be have ballot access

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Speaker 9: by the end of last year in thirty four states.

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Speaker 9: They now have it in eighteen, so they're way behind predictions.

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Speaker 9: And there's a bunch of states where they can't even

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Speaker 9: begin to get on the ballot until they name a

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Speaker 9: candidate because of state rules, so they're.

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Speaker 8: Really up against it. In fact, in New York they face.

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Speaker 9: A looming deadline in a couple of weeks where they

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Speaker 9: must have a candidate and they must submit their signatures,

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Speaker 9: and it does not appear that they're ready to do that.

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Speaker 9: So is there's some real questions about the logistics here.

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Speaker 9: If they do pick a candidate, they are going to

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Speaker 9: be handing that person an enormously difficult set of problems,

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Speaker 9: not only to compete with a current president, a former president,

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Speaker 9: and a Kennedy, but also to gain valot access in

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Speaker 9: most places.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about it, Kennedy, because I want to ask

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Speaker 3: you about this running mate. I'm fascinated by this sole story.

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Speaker 3: The Nicole Shanahan element. And I've read some commentary in

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Speaker 3: the wild already that came from you, so I think

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Speaker 3: I know where you are on this. But in terms

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Speaker 3: of No Labels taking a look at RFK Junior, is

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Speaker 3: that a possibility?

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Speaker 8: I don't think so.

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Speaker 9: RFK Junior does not fit any of the metrics that

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Speaker 9: No Labels had set for itself around kind of a

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Speaker 9: unity ticket, and I'm not sure RFK Junior would be

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Speaker 9: interested in the No Labels endorsement at this point, so

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Speaker 9: I doubt it'll be them, the Kennedy Shanahan team. If

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Speaker 9: No Labels goes forward, it will be with probably with

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Speaker 9: somebody far less prominent to Kennedy.

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Speaker 3: What does our audience need to know about Nicole Shanahan?

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Speaker 3: This choice is interesting to me, and folks like yourself

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Speaker 3: have tried to make clear that this is about ballot access.

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Speaker 4: Tell us why.

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Speaker 9: Without a doubt. I mean, Nicole Shanahan has three qualities.

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Speaker 9: She is over the age of thirty five and born

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Speaker 9: in the United States, which means she is constitutionally able

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Speaker 9: to become vice president.

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Speaker 8: And she's rich. She's got a lot of money.

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Speaker 9: She is the former wife of one of the Google founders,

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Speaker 9: and that allows them great flexibility because if you are

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Speaker 9: the candidate or one of the candidates on a presidential ticket,

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Speaker 9: you can give your campaign unlimited contributions. That's not true

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Speaker 9: of anyone else in the presidential context. They're limited to

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Speaker 9: twenty nine hundred dollars a person. But Shanahan can write

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Speaker 9: enormous checks. And if they're going to be on the

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Speaker 9: ballot everywhere or even most places, they're going to need

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Speaker 9: those checks, and they're going to need them right away

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Speaker 9: because they're kind of behind the eight ball.

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Speaker 8: So this has no doubt. They pick this woman because

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Speaker 8: of her money.

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Speaker 4: Well, sounds kind of smart, then, right. She was married

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Speaker 4: to last year, to Sergey Brinn, who you reference, the

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Speaker 4: Google co founder who has a fortune estimated by Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: News at one hundred twenty nine billion dollars. What could

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Speaker 4: that means?

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Speaker 8: You've got very bad lawyers. She's got a lot of

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Speaker 8: that money. So yeah, so yeah, I.

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Speaker 9: Think it's it is Well, it's smart from a political

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Speaker 9: perspective because money helps in politics. But this is somebody

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Speaker 9: that would be a heartbeat away from the presidency and

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Speaker 9: she has absolutely no qualifications whatsoever to be president of

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Speaker 9: the United States. I mean, she's a lawyer, and she's

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Speaker 9: a financier of movies and stuff. I mean, she has

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Speaker 9: literally no qualifications. And if you think about it, even

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Speaker 9: the least qualified vice presidential candidates like Ann Quail and

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Speaker 9: Sarah Palin, at least they've been senators and governors and

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Speaker 9: she's done nothing.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 3: Fascinating to see Donald Trump try to frame RFK as

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Speaker 3: a super lib to the left of Joe Biden. He says,

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Speaker 3: it reminds me of Democrats buying ads to lift up

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Speaker 3: the MAGA candidate. Is he worried about RFK Junior taking

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Speaker 3: votes away?

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Speaker 9: I don't think Trump is spending a lot of time

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Speaker 9: worrying about this, and he's probably right not to know,

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Speaker 9: but this strategy is wise on his part. I mean,

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Speaker 9: what he really wants to do is ensure that RFK

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Speaker 9: hurts by and at the moment, it appears that that's

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Speaker 9: a likely scenario. I mean, Trump's core support is very solid.

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Speaker 9: It's low, his ceiling is pretty low, but his floor

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Speaker 9: is really hard, and so it's unlikely that RFK or

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Speaker 9: any other third party candidate's going to hurt him much.

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Speaker 8: But they definitely could hurt Biden.

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Speaker 3: Spending time with Matt Bennett from Third Way, where he's

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Speaker 3: executive vice president and a frequent as I mentioned, Democratic

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Speaker 3: analyst on our panels here, Matt, it's not lost on

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Speaker 3: me and our viewers looking at you on YouTube here

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Speaker 3: see that Hillary.

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Speaker 4: Banner in the background.

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Speaker 3: I was at that convention when they made those And

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Speaker 3: I'm just wondering ahead of Joe Biden's appearance tonight with

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Speaker 3: Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. I know this is about

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Speaker 3: the three presidents. Are you surprised that Hillary is not

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Speaker 3: a bigger part of this? Are you surprised that Bill

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Speaker 3: Clinton is?

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Speaker 8: No, I'm not surprised by other of those things.

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Speaker 9: I mean, Hillary Clinton is a huge and strong supporter

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Speaker 9: of Joe Biden and doubt that she will do everything

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Speaker 9: in her power to help him. But tonight was, you know,

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Speaker 9: the president's and she's not a president. She came pretty close,

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Speaker 9: you know, about forty thousand votes, but she's not a

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Speaker 9: former president. So I don't think it's a surprise. And

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Speaker 9: I'm also not at the least been surprised that Bill

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Speaker 9: Clinton is helping Joe Biden. They are close allies, they

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Speaker 9: always have been. Bill Clinton has been an advisor to

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Speaker 9: President Biden, throughout his time in office, and so I

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Speaker 9: think this is a very natural thing that's.

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Speaker 8: Happening to me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we've actually there's been reporting he talks to Bill

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Speaker 3: Clinton more often than Barack Obama. I'm just, you know,

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Speaker 3: thinking about the me too stuff. Young people look at

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Speaker 3: Bill Clinton Matt a lot differently than baby boomers do.

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Speaker 3: Does he bring baggage to the stage or you just

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Speaker 3: don't look at it like that, knowing his fundraising prowess, I.

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Speaker 8: Don't think so.

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Speaker 9: I mean, I think when you compare, well, when you

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Speaker 9: think about this in the context of this presidential election,

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Speaker 9: you have one of the major party candidates who has

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Speaker 9: been found by a court to be guilty of rape.

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Speaker 9: So look, I mean, I understand that there's some baggage

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Speaker 9: connected to Clinton, but not that. And also I think

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Speaker 9: he brings a lot of upside with him as well.

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Speaker 9: He's a brilliant political mind, and he remains pretty popular,

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Speaker 9: certainly among the Democratic base. So I think he's really going.

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Speaker 8: To help.

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Speaker 3: And a monster organizer, I know when it comes to

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Speaker 3: raising money, certainly, the influence through the Clinton Global Initiative

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Speaker 3: is something that we.

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Speaker 4: Have to acknowledge. Matt, I'm really glad you could join

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Speaker 4: us today. Great to have you back. Come see us

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Speaker 4: again in studios soon.

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Speaker 3: Matt Bennett at Third Way where they have been awfully

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Speaker 3: busy on this no labels issue.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern Onmocarplay and then

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Speaker 2: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcast. Watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: She is kaytie Linetime, Joe Matthew. We're in Washington. This

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Speaker 3: is Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio. It's

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Speaker 3: great to have you with us today. As we turned

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Speaker 3: back to the campagntrail, Kaylie, we've been talking about this

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Speaker 3: monster event tonight at Radio City. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton

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Speaker 3: both on stage with the President of the United States.

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Speaker 3: They're going to raise twenty five million dollars thanks in

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Speaker 3: part to a photo line. If you want to photograph

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Speaker 3: with all three. By the way, we're told by our

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Speaker 3: own Josh Wingrove that Annie leeb of It herself is

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Speaker 3: going to be taking the photographs one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 3: for one picture. That's how you get that kind of money.

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Speaker 3: And to your point, that's what twice what Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: pulled in a month.

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Speaker 10: Something like that twenty million he pulled in ink February

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Speaker 10: the entire month.

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Speaker 4: So one night versus million month, remarkable.

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Speaker 3: With our eyes on the trail, I'm glad to say

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Speaker 3: Cliff Young is with us from IPSOS. We refer to

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Speaker 3: his polling and his research so often, and we've got

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Speaker 3: a lot of questions for Cliff today.

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Speaker 4: It's great to see you, Welcome back to the table.

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Speaker 4: Nice to see you in Washington today.

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Speaker 11: It's great to be here.

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Speaker 3: So this fundraiser tonight brings our attention back to a

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Speaker 3: general election campaign that everyone seems to have settled on.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to ask you some questions about RFK Junior,

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Speaker 3: But what we're hearing from No Labels is nobody wants

444
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 3: to run.

445
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 4: Are you settled on Trump v Biden?

446
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 11: I think it's going to be Trump Vive Biden. There

447
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 11: could be a third candidate. Those are the two primary

448
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 11: front runners on each side. We're ratcheting up now, and

449
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 11: you know we have a campaign. We have a dispute

450
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 11: in front of us.

451
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 8: Well.

452
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 10: As we talk about Trump and Biden, Joe mentioned at

453
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 10: the very top of the hour that we did get

454
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 10: consumer sentiment data today, it's the highest since twenty twenty one.

455
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 10: It's improving. We actually saw the biggest improvement within a

456
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 10: month going back to twenty twenty two. It does seem

457
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 10: like feelings around the economy are starting to improve. The

458
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 10: question is does Biden's prospects really improve with them? How

459
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 10: close is that connection really?

460
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 11: Yeah, this campaign, this electoral year was always going to

461
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 11: be a very close one. We never had any doubt

462
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,959
Speaker 11: in respect to that. Obviously, times not in Biden's favor

463
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 11: anytime it incumbents down because of the economy. The question

464
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 11: is can you gain that ground quickly enough? But what's

465
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 11: happening now is what we expect, and the economy is improving.

466
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 11: People perceive that, and we're beginning to see, at least

467
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 11: on the Biden side, glimmers of hope when it comes

468
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 11: to numbers.

469
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 4: Fascinating.

470
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 3: The RFK factor is a real one, or at least

471
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 3: it could be. You had did some research just about

472
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 3: a week ago on this. He has since named a

473
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 3: running mate, and we can talk more about the direction

474
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: of his campaign. But when I start hearing Donald Trump

475
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: try to frame the narrative around RFK Junior calling him

476
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 3: left of Joe Biden. I'm starting to think that he

477
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 3: is worried about this. Should he take it seriously.

478
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 11: He should listen first and foremost, RFK represents a disaffected middle,

479
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 11: whether it be ten percent, sixteen percent, somewhere in between

480
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 11: at Ipso sometimes we ask the question without the name

481
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 11: a nondescript third party individual, we get ten percent option cee.

482
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 11: It is option the other option right beside the two

483
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 11: any which anyone else but these two right. But ultimately

484
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 11: there is a disaffected middle right. But that disaffected middle

485
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 11: tends to be a little right of center at least

486
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 11: by our polling, tends to be a little bit more conservative,

487
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 11: tends to be a little bit more female, a little

488
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 11: bit more suburban. Maybe the dobs A decision had an effect.

489
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 11: So I think there should be worries on Trump's side.

490
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 11: Obviously it's Biden's job to mobilize these disaffected voters, because

491
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 11: they're really more likely to be his voters than Trump's.

492
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 11: But that said, it makes total sense the way in

493
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 11: which Trump is framing it today.

494
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 10: Well, you talk about mobilization of these voters, and I

495
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 10: wonder if the question we should be asking is not

496
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 10: how many people will will turn out to vote for

497
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 10: RF Junior or any third party candidate whatever option see,

498
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 10: or whether they're just going to decide not to vote

499
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 10: be because theoretically that's there. I just wonder if the

500
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 10: choice is more do I vote or do I vote

501
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 10: for this other person, rather than do I vote for

502
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 10: this other person over Trump or Biden? Because are these

503
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 10: individuals going to vote for Trump or Biden in any case?

504
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's both right that that third option in partment

505
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 11: represents aspirations and so some of those that aspired to

506
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 11: a third party individual third party candidate won't vote on

507
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 11: election day. Polling tends to overstate the third party candidate,

508
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 11: both in the United States and around the world.

509
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 8: We do that everywhere.

510
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 11: I think it will will will will minimize a bit,

511
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 11: narrow a bit, I'll come down to sort of I

512
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:41,479
Speaker 11: think single digit numbers by election day. But ultimately it

513
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 11: represents both both both those that would not vote and

514
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 11: those might they would want to vote for a third party.

515
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 3: Kingdon Nicole Shanahan is his pick for running mate. Of course,

516
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 3: is married just last year to Sergate brinn Worth one

517
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty nine billion dollars. She is going to

518
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 3: have the ability to donate an unlimited amount of cash

519
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 3: as an actual candidate on the ticket to this campaign.

520
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 3: Does that make it more legitimate? Are you expecting it

521
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 3: to be on the ballot in all fifty states?

522
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 11: It's very, very difficult to get on the bat in

523
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 11: all fifty states, especially now. It takes time and there

524
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 11: are a lot of limitations, a lot of barriers to

525
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 11: entry when it comes to third party candids getting on

526
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 11: the ballot. Obviously, money helps, and a lot of money

527
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 11: helps even more. But ultimately it's going to be about

528
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 11: resonance with public opinion. And once again we can't minimize

529
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 11: the importance of the anti vote, the anti Trump vote,

530
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 11: the anti Biden vote. At the end of the day,

531
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 11: you might be disaffected, but do you really want Trump

532
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 11: to win? Or do you really want Biden to win?

533
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 11: Are you really going to throw away your vote when

534
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 11: it comes to anti your anti candid feelings.

535
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 10: I often get told when I ask questions about voter

536
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 10: sentiment that not everyone's paying as much attention as we

537
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 10: are here in Washington. Obviously, we've been in mess in

538
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 10: this for what feels like forever, and we will continue

539
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 10: to be so. But a lot of people are probably

540
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 10: just now tuning in seeing that there is someone with

541
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 10: the Kennedy name who is running, And I just wonder

542
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 10: to what extent you think the support he may be

543
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 10: drawing now will actually be lasting once the public gets

544
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 10: to know him better. Whether it is just kind of

545
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 10: a name recognition thing we may be seeing right now.

546
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 11: I think it's partially that once again our experience, whether

547
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 11: it be in the United States or in other countries

548
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 11: with their party candidates, they tend to taper off as

549
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,719
Speaker 11: you get closer to election day, and it is the

550
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 11: case that people are not paying attention at this point. Therefore,

551
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 11: we should be very careful with the horse race bulls.

552
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 11: The horse race boles are fuzzy at best. Other indicators

553
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 11: like the main problem and approve of ratings are probably

554
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 11: better leading indicators of what will happen. But ultimately we

555
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 11: have to understand where we are. We're seven months out.

556
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 3: Kayley mentions consumer sentiment today. Our Bloomberg newspoll that came

557
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 3: out a couple of days ago actually showed improvement in

558
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 3: the seven swing states, or at least several key states

559
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 3: for Joe Biden, including Wisconsin. Is the trajectory in his

560
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: favor based on your research. You look a couple of

561
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 3: months down the road, where is it going to be.

562
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 11: I expect this trend. Listen, these elections in the United

563
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 11: States are very very close presidential elections. We have to

564
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 11: remember that historically speaking, there's no way that Trump was

565
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 11: going to win by as much as the polls are suggesting.

566
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 11: This was a lag effect, in my opinion, in inertial

567
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 11: effect of inflation. And the economy is improving, and that's

568
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 11: what we're seeing right now. We're seeing sort of glimmers

569
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 11: of hope. In some ways when it comes to the economy.

570
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 11: You're less likely to punish the executive in power at

571
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 11: the time, that is Biden at this point, and your

572
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 11: numbers and all the numbers are suggesting this more positive

573
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 11: trend for the Biden camp.

574
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 10: All right, Cliff Young of IPSO, it's always great to

575
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 10: have you here in our Washington studio. We appreciate your time,

576
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 10: and it's worth considering, Joe as we continue to get

577
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 10: this economic data, and including tomorrow when you and I

578
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 10: won't be working yas it is a holiday and the

579
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 10: markets will be closed, but we're still going to get

580
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 10: PCEE data and here from Chairman Power and we know

581
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 10: that interest rates and where they are come November when

582
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 10: voters are heading to the polls could make a massive difference.

583
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 4: That's absolutely right.

584
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 3: We'll have special coverage on Bloomberg Radio eight thirty when

585
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 3: that PCEE data are released, and we'll be of course

586
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: carrying that in the next week. This endless conversation about

587
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: the economy.

588
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: You're listening to.

589
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can just live weekdays

590
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with

591
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

592
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say

593
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 2: Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

594
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 10: I wouldn't call this a stealth rally because it's been

595
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 10: going on for some time, but we're back at the

596
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 10: highest level since October not something for WTI almost eighty

597
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 10: three dollars a barrel, and obviously that is going to

598
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 10: translate to the price paid at the pump, a pretty

599
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 10: visible sign of inflation to the American people.

600
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 3: You wonder when the oil stocks start to follow it.

601
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: I guess they've started to pop a little bit. But yeah,

602
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 3: so I paid three dollars twenty nine cents to Phillip yesterday.

603
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 4: Okay, in northern Virginia, so DC.

604
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 3: Area, Triple A has got a forecast of four dollars

605
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 3: this summer. We're back to a four handle, right when

606
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 3: people are starting to make up their minds or at

607
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 3: least pay attention to this presidential cycle.

608
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 10: Yeah, not great news for President Biden, who, of course,

609
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 10: throughout his administration has been fighting very hard against higher

610
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 10: oil prices, including the tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,

611
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 10: encouraging American oil companies companies as well as opek other

612
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 10: countries to pump more oil.

613
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 3: We talked to Bob McNally quite a bit around that

614
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: time when they were draining a good chunk of the

615
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 3: spr Rapidan Energy is his company where he's president, formerly

616
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 3: in the Bush White House, and he's with us now.

617
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 4: Bob, it's good to see you.

618
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 3: Do you buy into this four dollars a gallon forecast

619
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 3: for summer?

620
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 12: Hi, Joe and Kayley in many parts of the country. Yes,

621
00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 12: you know, rapid An's forecast on an annual Apple average

622
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 12: basis or I should say national average basis is more

623
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 12: like three to eighty, but three eighty nationally is still

624
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 12: you know, in some swing states like Arizona, Nevada, that's

625
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 12: a fore handle. As you heard in California, it's way above. So,

626
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 12: you know, I think a lot of folks are going

627
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 12: to be seeing four dollars a gallon, If not the

628
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 12: whole country, you get the Midwest, down Texas, the lower

629
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 12: East Coast, maybe it'd be a little less, but yeah,

630
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 12: a lot of folks are going to be seeing four dollars.

631
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 10: Well, it raises the question as to why exactly this

632
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 10: is happening when prices had been coming down, now they're

633
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 10: heading back up potentially to these levels. Is this an

634
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 10: issue of the economy is still doing much better than thought?

635
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 10: So demand is staying strong or is it an issue

636
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 10: of supply or is it both?

637
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 12: And Bob, I think it's mainly on the demand side,

638
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 12: with some geopolitical risk in there. As always, the most

639
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 12: important determinant of what we pay at the pump is

640
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 12: the price of global crude oil. Crude oil has been

641
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 12: finding its footing here after selling off Sharp Lake last year.

642
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 12: Why there's confidence in a soft landing. Macroeconomic factors have

643
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 12: had a big influence on oil prices. Crude oil folks

644
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 12: are feeling better about a soft landing here. We even

645
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 12: had some good Chinese data, and then we're starting to

646
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 12: see the oil market tighten up. Inventories are drawing. Demand

647
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 12: is good, even for gasoline in places like Europe, demand

648
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 12: is not bad. And so as those inventory draws show up.

649
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 12: OPEC plus has been extending its cuts, and now a

650
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 12: little bit of geopolitical risk, not a lot, just a

651
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 12: little bit, with the Ukrainian's hitting Russian refineries and the

652
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 12: Red Sea. We're starting to see a solid base and

653
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 12: a decent rally here. I don't expect it to go

654
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 12: too much higher unless things get much worse in the

655
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 12: Middle East. But we think oil has sort of found

656
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 12: its footing crude oil, and where crude oil goes, pump

657
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 12: prices follow.

658
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: There were a lot of questions Bob following the bridge

659
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: collapse this week in Baltimore about what impact that may

660
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: or may not have on energy prices, knowing how much

661
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: coal is coming out of that port. Do you have

662
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 3: an answer to that question, Is this a factor or not?

663
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 12: You know, it's a big deal for coal just because

664
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 12: that's one of the biggest coal export ports we have,

665
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 12: so that's the.

666
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 4: Biggest lead over into oil prices.

667
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 8: No, not really no.

668
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 12: Baltimore. It gets its gasoline and diesel mainly from the

669
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 12: Colonial pipeline. It does import some asphalt into Baltimore, but

670
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 12: they'll root that in through some other ports like Norfolk.

671
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 12: So I think it's a local issue. Unfortunately, with that tragedy,

672
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 12: it's not even a regional, much less a national issue

673
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 12: we should worry about for oil prices.

674
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 10: Well, and if anything, the fact that there are so

675
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 10: many containers trying to import an export out of Baltimore

676
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 10: and all of the ports for that matter on the

677
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 10: Eastern Seaboard may just underscore how intense global treat is

678
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,239
Speaker 10: and how much demand there still is for goods all

679
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 10: around the world, which maybere you just reinforce the higher

680
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 10: prices as well, kind of being a signal of the

681
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 10: more resilient economy that we are talking about. And of

682
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 10: course all of this does come back here here and

683
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 10: washing two politics. We know that Biden has been plagued

684
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 10: by high energy prices and prices at the pump. We

685
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 10: talked about some of the things he tried to do

686
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 10: to address that. What you hear on the other side

687
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 10: of the aisle, including from his opponent in November, or

688
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 10: presumed opponent, Donald Trump is that American energy needs to

689
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 10: be unleashed, and Bob, I believe we already were, at

690
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 10: least in twenty twenty three. Well, stee, if it's the

691
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 10: case again this year pumping a record amount of oil

692
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 10: here in the US. So when we are talking about

693
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 10: American energy being unleashed, what exactly, what exactly would that mean?

694
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 12: I think the President Trump is talking about removing unnecessary

695
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 12: or burdensome restrictions on developing new oil resources, new refining capacity,

696
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 12: pipelines and that type of thing more with a long

697
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,919
Speaker 12: term view. To your point, Kayleie, you're exactly right. Look,

698
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 12: being a big producer doesn't mean you get to control

699
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 12: the price at the pump. President Trump found that out.

700
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 12: President Biden's finding that out. President Bush found that out.

701
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:02,760
Speaker 12: Big doesn't mean prices or comfortable prices, because the United

702
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 12: States is basically a price taker in the global oil market,

703
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 12: no matter how much oil we produce. The real you know,

704
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 12: to paraphrase, I'm sorry, but maose tung power in the

705
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 12: global oil market flows through the barrel of spare production capacity,

706
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 12: and that's mainly in Saudi Arabia that's wielded by opek plus,

707
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 12: they have more pricing power than the president. No matter

708
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 12: how much we produce here, it's a tough truth for

709
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 12: politicians to accept. You would think, if we're a big producer,

710
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 12: we ought to be able to keep gasoline at three

711
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 12: dollars and twenty cents forever. Doesn't work that way, Bob.

712
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 4: Did we miss our opportunity to refill the spr.

713
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 12: Yeah, you know, I think we made a mistake in selling,

714
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 12: especially that one hundred and eighty million barrels we sold

715
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 12: way too much. To its credit, Joe, the administration has

716
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 12: been putting oil back in. I think they realized this

717
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 12: thing is too low with all the mayhem we have

718
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 12: in the world, and so they're putting in three four

719
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 12: or so a million a month. However, they said, look,

720
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 12: if prices keep rising, we're gonna stop filling the SPR

721
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 12: And I'm afraid that's a real chance here, So we

722
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 12: should have avoided the sale. It's good that Doe is refilling.

723
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 12: Be great if we refilled faster, but if prices start

724
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 12: rising here, they'll probably stop. And that's understandable too. What

725
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 12: would be a big mistake is to again use it

726
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,280
Speaker 12: as an election ploy and spill it again, to release

727
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 12: another sixty or ninety million barrels just because gasoline prices

728
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 12: approach your four dollars handle. That would be just really unfortunate.

729
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,839
Speaker 10: What about over the longer term, as you talk about

730
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 10: the opportunity to fill up the SPR, what if we

731
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 10: actually need it not for price control, but for some

732
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,439
Speaker 10: kind of emergency. What kind of situation are we going

733
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 10: to be in it If it's drained to a large extent,

734
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 10: we're in trouble.

735
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,439
Speaker 12: We have drained our SPR to forty year lows, and

736
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 12: it will be costly to refill it anywhere close to

737
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 12: the six hundred plus million barrels, much less the seven

738
00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 12: hundred million barrels where we got it to w in

739
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 12: the bush administrate. And as you mentioned, it's all about

740
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 12: responding to a disruption. So if we get a few

741
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 12: years down the road, demand doesn't peak, things are getting frothy,

742
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 12: OPEC spare capacity goes down, and we have a conflict

743
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 12: in the Arabian Gulf or somewhere else, we won't have

744
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 12: that emergency buffer. That's why I think again, I'll give

745
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 12: them credit to their credit. Doe is saying this thing

746
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 12: is too low for a dangerous volatile oil world. We

747
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,760
Speaker 12: need to refill it, but I'm afraid there's not political

748
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 12: will on either side of the aisle really to refill

749
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 12: it fast enough to give us that buffer later this decade.

750
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,399
Speaker 12: We'll miss it, all right.

751
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 10: We have to leave it on that note. But Bob

752
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 10: McNally of Rapidan Energy, thank you so much as always

753
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 10: for joining us on Bloomberg Television and Radio as we

754
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 10: talk about energy, which certainly is a factor in this

755
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 10: electoral cycle. Joe, It's something we hear a lot about

756
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 10: from both sides, and we know once again prices at

757
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 10: the pump do you have an influence on voter sentiment,

758
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 10: how they're feeling about the economy as they prepare to

759
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 10: decide who they want to vote for president? But energy

760
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 10: in the economy is on what is a long list

761
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 10: of issues that may change the minds of vote.

762
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 4: Well, that's for sure.

763
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 3: And then we see consumer sentiments today at the highest

764
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 3: levels July, which you were smart to invoke earlier. Rick Davis,

765
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 3: one of our political analysts who was on with us

766
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,280
Speaker 3: earlier this hour, always tells it's a more.

767
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 4: Reliable poll than the polls.

768
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 3: So even as oil prices increase, we're seeing sentiment on

769
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 3: the rise as well, and I'm sure it's confounding some

770
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 3: of the well I say, political the economic minds inside

771
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 3: the White House.

772
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 10: Yeah, although maybe both of that is a sign of

773
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 10: a more resilient economy than thought. People might be feeling

774
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 10: better about the economy because they still have their jobs,

775
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 10: the economy is still growing, they can maybe afford the

776
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 10: higher gas is their wages are rising, but definitely something

777
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 10: of a puzzle. And we know that the economy is

778
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 10: often top of mind, or at least up there on

779
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 10: the list for voters. But we've found out throughout this

780
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 10: primary cycle and now that we're effectively in the general election,

781
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 10: that immigration in the border, yes, sometimes is equal to

782
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 10: or even above that issue in many of these states.

783
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 4: That's for sure. That's what our polling has brought to us.

784
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 3: And as we learned on the ground in Iowa and

785
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, that was the case in both of those primaries.

786
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: So it will certainly be near the top, if not

787
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 3: the most important issue in the general election campaign. So

788
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: not lost on us here, and that's why our bureau

789
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 3: chief in Washington, Peggy Collins, made tracks to the border.

790
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 3: Just returned recently from our southwest border in Texas's with

791
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 3: the table now, Peggy, it's great to see you.

792
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 4: This is going to be featured in our Big.

793
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 3: Take podcast, Big Take DC podcast to be specific, that

794
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 3: drops later today.

795
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 4: I have no idea what's in store for us. What

796
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 4: did you learn on your trip?

797
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 5: Well, it was.

798
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 13: A really impactful trip. As you were saying, Joe, we

799
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 13: really wanted to go down to the border and talk

800
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 13: to the people on multiple sides of the issue there

801
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 13: because it has become other than the economy, one of

802
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 13: the top two issues that voters are sighting in terms

803
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 13: of what matters most of them in this election in November.

804
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 13: And one of the things that really stood out when

805
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,720
Speaker 13: we were there was how porous the border is really.

806
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 13: When you're there, you really see how close we are

807
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 13: to Mexico and that the river is really the border.

808
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,839
Speaker 13: It almost felt some at some points like you could

809
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 13: toss a baseball across and hit Mexico. One of the

810
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 13: other things that really stood out is how much of

811
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 13: a multi pronged effort it is to try and deal

812
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 13: with the crisis of so many people coming across the

813
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 13: border from places in Latin America. I mean, I went

814
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 13: up in a helicopter with some people to try and

815
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 13: see where they're seeing migrants crossing and how they're trying

816
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 13: to deal with them. On Ranchers Land, for example, there's

817
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 13: boats that are traversing back and forth. There's a people

818
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 13: who are waiting for the migrants to potentially touch ground

819
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 13: on US oil and then process them. There's nonprofits that

820
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 13: are working with people who are coming across the border.

821
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 13: There's city officials, there's religious people. It really is like

822
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 13: a multi pronged effort, and time and time again we

823
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 13: heard from people two key things. One that it is

824
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 13: a humanitarian crisis, and two that's small towns like egle Pass,

825
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 13: Texas where we were really need help because they're small

826
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 13: border towns and they're dealing with an incredible volume of

827
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 13: people that are coming across well.

828
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 10: And it's worth pointing out that for that reason, the

829
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 10: Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, has been really at the

830
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 10: forefront of this issue, having the State of Texas do

831
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 10: things that are legally in question now in regard to

832
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 10: being able to detain people suspected of being having migrated

833
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 10: over illegally. What sense did you get of the way

834
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 10: that Texas is handling it and how much cooperation there

835
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 10: really is at the federal level with what the state

836
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 10: is doing.

837
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 13: So when we were there, actually we went out with

838
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 13: the Texas Department of Safety and we traveled along, drove

839
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 13: along the border, and when you're actually with them, we

840
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 13: don't really sense a lot of tension between the Feds

841
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 13: and the state. Right but Texas has taken over this

842
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 13: area right underneath a bridge that is a legitimate border

843
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 13: crossing an Eagle Pass Texas. It's Shelby Park and basically

844
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 13: there's a golf course there and there's a bridge and

845
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,959
Speaker 13: people traverse it every day from Mexico to the US,

846
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 13: but also Texas the state has taken it over because

847
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 13: as they say, they need more help than they need

848
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,919
Speaker 13: to get control over this. And it is difficult to see.

849
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 13: I mean, there's a lot of constantina wire and razor wire,

850
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 13: barbed wire up and down for miles in this Shelby

851
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 13: Park area, but also up in some private lands. And

852
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 13: you see we want to see some of the places

853
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 13: where the migrants have been able to cross because there's

854
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 13: an opening in the barbed wire and there's just piles

855
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 13: and piles and piles of clothes. When they cross the river,

856
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,439
Speaker 13: they take off their wet clothes and then they keep

857
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 13: heading on. But there's diapers, there's toothbrushes, there's clothes, there's

858
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 13: kids backpacks, there's babies booties. I mean, it's really human

859
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 13: when you see it, it's.

860
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 3: Really something as you bring this to life for us.

861
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 3: You were an eagle pass, you said, the center of

862
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: the standoff, as our Texas Bureau chief Julie Fine refers

863
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 3: to it. I think you guys were together on this trip.

864
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 3: You already answered part of my question. I was going

865
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 3: to ask you if you could see the razor wire,

866
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 3: if you could see the buoys and some of these

867
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: other obstacles that have been put in place that have

868
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:00,280
Speaker 3: been considered very controversial from a place where an average

869
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 3: citizen or a journalist could go.

870
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 4: Was that all in your view?

871
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 12: We did see it.

872
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 13: Yes, it is a striking to see it. You look

873
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 13: over at Mexico at points and there's cows and horses

874
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 13: and men fishing, and then you stand on the US

875
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 13: side and you're looking right in the face of you know,

876
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 13: barbed wire. But so many different people around those that

877
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 13: we talked to, both law enforcement and people who were

878
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 13: working with the migrants, and the migrants themselves did say

879
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,839
Speaker 13: that they're really trying to find a solution here because

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Speaker 13: they understand how human it is.

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Speaker 3: It drops today the Bloomberg Big Take DC podcast, with

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Speaker 3: the great help of Peggy Collins.

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Speaker 4: Thanks Peggy for being.

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Speaker 10: With us, This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

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Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

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Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

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Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.