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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 2: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz, joined by the Queen of

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Speaker 1: the Pot, Miss Kendri Middleton, and the return wait for it,

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Speaker 1: dramatic effect of Stucky. Now, if you missed our NFL

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Speaker 1: Draft breakdown, Gotta nail it breakdown, go and find that

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Speaker 1: in the podcast and video feed, a nice primer for

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Speaker 1: the upcoming NFL Draft at the end of this month.

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Speaker 2: But Stucky, welcome back to the fold. We missed you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be back. It's going to grind of

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Speaker 3: a month, grind of a season, but it's basically come

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Speaker 3: to an end. Be able to have some free time

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Speaker 3: for a little bit, h read, some sleep, some get

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Speaker 3: out and bike and then before I know it, I'll

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Speaker 3: do this a little bit, even starting next week. But

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Speaker 3: it's I won't get fully fully immersed in college football

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Speaker 3: prep for a bit, but we'll start to take a

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Speaker 3: little peek there. But yeah, it's nice. So there's a

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Speaker 3: light at the end of the tunnel because from deep

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Speaker 3: deep into college football prep, which is like July August

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Speaker 3: until Monday at the end of the national title there's

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Speaker 3: really just no breathing. So yeah, it's good to be back.

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Speaker 3: Looking forward to chopping up with you guys. This is

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Speaker 3: like the very and this is what this show is

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Speaker 3: supposed to be. It's a very nice break during the week,

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Speaker 3: and it'll be the only thing I have to do

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Speaker 3: for at least a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I love that, a little bit of levity, you know.

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Speaker 1: I honestly thought for a minute, Kendra that stuck. He

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Speaker 1: was just gonna hibernate until the preseason in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if.

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Speaker 5: I could go that long without cat updates. I like,

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Speaker 5: literally love Stucky's cat. I love what it makes a

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Speaker 5: guest appearance on the show. I want cats so bad.

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Speaker 3: My cats are now, Yeah, they're out there indoor, outdoor,

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Speaker 3: so we have like a huge backyard they are. They

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Speaker 3: just have a ball back there and now it's nic

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Speaker 3: it's nice. They get a little squirrely squirmy when it

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Speaker 3: gets too cold for a while and they have to

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Speaker 3: stay inside and then they'll like fight each other. But

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Speaker 3: they're outside enjoying the nice day. I mean, it's very

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Speaker 3: nice here.

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Speaker 4: Today, must be nice.

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Speaker 5: It The feel like is twenty eight degrees here today

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Speaker 5: and I am going insane.

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Speaker 3: It's going up to eighty today. But then I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's like Lexington's weather is I thought of that? Isn't

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Speaker 3: It's like that in a lot of the Midwest. But

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Speaker 3: like a couple of days it's going down to thirty.

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Speaker 5: So and we're sitting in this a fun way tomorrow, like,

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Speaker 5: what this is not Opening day weather?

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Speaker 3: Red Well, I'm curious. The Red docs are a mess.

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Speaker 4: Yeah they are, Yes they are, she says.

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Speaker 1: With pure joy in her heart. We have Mike Calibretz

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Speaker 1: joining us to talk about the final four. Only three

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Speaker 1: games left in college basketball, at least at the top level.

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Speaker 2: So we're gonna get to that in a bit. We

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Speaker 2: got stuck.

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Speaker 1: He's random question back in the fold today, But I

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Speaker 1: want to get to some NFL news with you guys.

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Speaker 1: There's some drama percolating out of Philadelphia.

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Speaker 2: Big shock.

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Speaker 1: I know, the Eagles fired their offensive coordinator Kevin Petula,

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Speaker 1: and then, according to.

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Speaker 2: Reports, he's not the only problem.

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Speaker 1: The report from ESPN suggests that Jalen Hurts has been

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Speaker 1: reluctant to adapt. Obviously, he regressed in a big way

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Speaker 1: last year first round exit in the playoffs. But listen

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Speaker 1: to this quote he is pushed back on changes that

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Speaker 1: would diversify the scheme, including when it comes to going

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Speaker 1: under center more. He's shown a reluctant to let it

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Speaker 1: rip at times, particularly against zone coverage. He diverts from

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Speaker 1: the game plan and changes play calls to what feels

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Speaker 1: like an excessive degree. Yikes, obviously they have issues. How

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Speaker 1: much of this are you going to factor into your analysis,

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Speaker 1: Stucky going into next year? If Jalen Hurts has become

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Speaker 1: rigid and the offensive line isn't good enough to protect

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Speaker 1: what he does, well.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's April second, so I mean I'm not

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Speaker 3: putting too much stock into it as of right now.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he has struggled versus zone coverage in the past,

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Speaker 3: and there's definitely some flaws in his game. I do

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Speaker 3: not think A. J. Brown is going to be there

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Speaker 3: next year. I know what Roseman came out and said,

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Speaker 3: but he has to say that at the meetings, and like,

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Speaker 3: if anything's gonna happen, it's gonna be like after June

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Speaker 3: fi first, there's gonna be something that happens with the

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Speaker 3: Eagles before next year. Personnel wise, how's it all gonna

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Speaker 3: work with a new coordinator, which I think they needed.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. It's still too early to tell, but

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Speaker 3: it's definitely one of the biggest storylines in the NFC

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Speaker 3: heading into next year, seeing how this is gonna work

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Speaker 3: and how Hurts fits into it. If aj Brown is

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Speaker 3: still there and if so, if not, where does he go?

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Speaker 3: If he is still there, how does it all work?

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Speaker 3: And then it's not just going to be a Oh

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Speaker 3: we watched Week one and we now have all the answers.

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Speaker 3: That's going to be a situation to monitor throughout the

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Speaker 3: season to get a better handle on it. So as

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Speaker 3: of right now, I mean, it's just too it's way

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Speaker 3: too early to make any leap jump to any real conclusions.

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Speaker 1: Kendra does he need an elite offensive line to be

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Speaker 1: si successful? Every quarterback could use one, but some can

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Speaker 1: get by without it. He doesn't seem like the kind

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Speaker 1: of guy that can.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's definitely one of the issues. But

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Speaker 4: what I'm.

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Speaker 5: Sitting here thinking is maybe he just needs a change

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Speaker 5: of scenery.

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Speaker 4: Like we see that happen all the time.

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Speaker 5: We love to talk about Sam Darnold, we love to

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Speaker 5: talk about Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 4: We love to talk about these guys who.

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Speaker 5: Needed some time needed to change of scenery to kind

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Speaker 5: of flourish and play their best game.

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Speaker 4: Jalen hurts.

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Speaker 5: I don't want to say his best years are probably

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Speaker 5: behind him, because I don't think that that's fair.

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Speaker 4: He's still relatively young.

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Speaker 5: I think he's what twenty eight twenty nine like in

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Speaker 5: the quarterback position, you can play for a long time.

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Speaker 5: I do think he needs an elite offensive line to

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Speaker 5: be successful, But I'm wondering if a change of scenery

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Speaker 5: would do both of them a service, because I think

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Speaker 5: that he's this is rude, and the Philly fans are

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Speaker 5: probably going to come for me, and a lot of

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Speaker 5: them love him. But do we think that this would

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Speaker 5: serve him well for the rest of his career, just

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Speaker 5: to get out and go somewhere else. I'm kind of

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Speaker 5: leaning towards yes. And he's relatively relatively Here's the part

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Speaker 5: I think people are gonna get upset about replaceable.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because he does a lot of rudimentary things really well.

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Speaker 1: And when you don't have a strong offensive line and

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Speaker 1: Saquon took a step back because of it too, then

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Speaker 1: those calculated shots down field aren't there. His ability to

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Speaker 1: hurt you in the run game isn't as pronounced when

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Speaker 1: you're not also worried about a running back gashing you

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Speaker 1: for eight yards on every other play. So all of

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Speaker 1: those things if and then on top of it, you

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Speaker 1: have the psychological pressure side of what you're talking about, Kendra,

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Speaker 1: the Philadelphia fan base, you can only be bad for

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Speaker 1: like two weeks and then they're done with you. This

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Speaker 1: guy won a Super Bowl and they're already like, well, maybe.

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Speaker 2: We could do better.

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Speaker 5: But is he one of the more mid quarterbacks to

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Speaker 5: win a Super Bowl? I'm like, I'm thinking about him,

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Speaker 5: Nick Foles, like I kind of throw them all into

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Speaker 5: that bucket. You know what would be crazy is if

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Speaker 5: Draft Day rolls around and it has been you know,

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Speaker 5: the hot rumor here about after that June first deadline,

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Speaker 5: AJ Brown winding up here obviously because of Rabel and

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Speaker 5: the need. But what if they just decided to trade

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Speaker 5: Jalen and leave AJ there and get another quarterback. That

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Speaker 5: would be that would be something.

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Speaker 1: All right here here, Let's let's do one one quick

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Speaker 1: exercise before we get to one other news item.

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Speaker 2: What team would it be?

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Speaker 4: Arizona?

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Speaker 2: Arizona. He goes from the.

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Speaker 1: Pressure bird to the levity bird out west in Arizona,

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Speaker 1: Stucky pick a team. If we were to trade Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts somewhat realistically, where.

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Speaker 2: Would he end up?

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Speaker 4: Or Pittsburgh?

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Speaker 2: That would be interesting. You just drive there, drive to

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Speaker 2: the new I.

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Speaker 3: Think Pittsburgh makes sense out of conference, although is he

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Speaker 3: is he too young for Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: Another ten years? Another ten years, that's going to be

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Speaker 1: a perfect answer. Would Aaron Glenn already sell his geno

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Speaker 1: smith Stock that he's all in on in order to

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Speaker 1: get a jailwart Apps?

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Speaker 4: I think he would slap his mother for Jalen Hurt?

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Speaker 4: Are you joking?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 1: One other story I want to get to and then

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Speaker 1: we'll get the stuckies question. Strange one coming out about

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Speaker 1: pookuin Akoula, and honestly because April Fool's Day has really

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Speaker 1: jumped the shark. I honestly, I didn't even react to

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Speaker 1: this yesterday because I was concerned that it wasn't real.

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Speaker 1: But pookin a coupa has checked into a private facility,

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Speaker 1: according to his attorney, to focus on.

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Speaker 2: His health personal It is a real story.

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Speaker 1: Yeah so you so you thought you were somewhat bamboozled

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Speaker 1: by it too.

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Speaker 3: I barely saw it but I don't. I hate April

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Speaker 3: Fool's Day on Twitter.

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Speaker 4: I try to say, say the worst. None of the

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Speaker 4: jokes are funny.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's like a half a percent or funny, and

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Speaker 3: then ninety nine point five percent are just the most obvious, Like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: this is obviously just an April hool so that's just

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Speaker 3: all your timeline is. So I like just avoid Twitter

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Speaker 3: like the plague. Don't even look at my timeline on

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Speaker 3: April Fools. But I did see that, and I just

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Speaker 3: thought it was a joke, like a bad April Fools

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Speaker 3: Day jail same.

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Speaker 1: I looked at it and I said, Okay, I saw

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Speaker 1: Adam Schefter tweet it. But let's just I'm gonna wake

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Speaker 1: up on April second, and if it's still there, then

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Speaker 1: I'll react to it.

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Speaker 2: And it is. It's a real story.

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Speaker 1: Naku has checked into a facility on his own before

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Speaker 1: a lawsuit was filed against him that accused him of

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Speaker 1: biting two women at a group dinner on New Year's Eve.

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Speaker 1: He's going to remain there until he completes the program

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Speaker 1: ahead of the OTAs. This sounds less voluntary the more

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Speaker 1: that you read it. By the way, on the business side,

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Speaker 1: of this. I mean, the RAMS probably said we are

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Speaker 1: not going to pay you unless you get yourself figured out.

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Speaker 1: This guy's still on his rookie deal base salary of

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Speaker 1: five million dollars right now. Just to put a reference

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Speaker 1: point on that, Marvin Mims makes more money than Pukinakua.

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Speaker 4: Right now, so earlier this year, by the way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he has misstepped more than once. But is

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Speaker 1: this such a pr thing angle for the money, Kendro,

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Speaker 1: how are we viewing this?

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Speaker 5: I think it is a pr thing, and it's crazy

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Speaker 5: because he's one of these people who loves to like

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Speaker 5: step out and make jokes about CTE, which, depending on

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Speaker 5: the type of person you are, you can think that

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Speaker 5: that's funny or not.

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Speaker 4: I I'm not.

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Speaker 5: Going to comment on that, But the thing that I

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Speaker 5: want to talk about is the irony that this is

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Speaker 5: happening the same you know, forty eight hours that the

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Speaker 5: NFL comes out and says that every single team needs

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Speaker 5: a mental health member with you know, all the certifications

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Speaker 5: on staff. And I think that this was kind of

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Speaker 5: just an ironic time for both of those news stories

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Speaker 5: to drop within the same forty eight hours.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a good move by the NFL.

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Speaker 5: A lot of people complained about the you know, independent

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Speaker 5: neurological people that they hired to kind of watch for

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Speaker 5: ct and all those types of things. But it's very serious,

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Speaker 5: and I think that Pukin who unfortunately is on a

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Speaker 5: fast track to the aj Brown scenario that we watched

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Speaker 5: unfold a couple of seasons ago, and it's unfortunate. I

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Speaker 5: don't want any of those things to happen. And it's

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Speaker 5: hard to draw the line between is he just you know,

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Speaker 5: a twenty two year old kid, or is this something

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Speaker 5: more serious with like the brain matter and all of

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Speaker 5: that kind of stuff. I just I don't want to

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Speaker 5: see this happen to anybody else. And I think that

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Speaker 5: as much as it is a pr thing, hopefully because

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Speaker 5: of this, we're going to take some steps in the

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Speaker 5: right direction in these young men being young men and

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Speaker 5: you know, being held to a higher standard with the

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Speaker 5: position that they're given.

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Speaker 1: Very well said Stucky, anything on this before we move on.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I I'm curious to see if this just

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Speaker 3: I don't know, it does seem like it was more

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Speaker 3: just forced, but who knows what anyone is going through.

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Speaker 3: If he is going through some stuff. Oh that he

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Speaker 3: gets through it. But I'm curious to see, just from

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Speaker 3: a football perspective, that this pushes the Rams just a

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Speaker 3: little bit more to potentially draft a wide receiver up early.

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Speaker 3: I think it was something that they're probably considering anyway,

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Speaker 3: Like that roster doesn't have many needs, Like the long

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Speaker 3: term question is that quarterback. But if you assume just

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Speaker 3: going into this year, that everything status quo. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you look back last year with that roster when healthy,

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Speaker 3: you feel you felt good about the offensive line, the backfield,

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Speaker 3: the quarterback position, The defensive front was solid. The questions

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Speaker 3: were in the secondary. I think that that's what they

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Speaker 3: real They were a little acting, but they went and

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Speaker 3: they got McDuffie. I still think they need to probably

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Speaker 3: supplement their defensive backfield, but if you look at another

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Speaker 3: position that they could just use a boost, right they

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Speaker 3: not that Adams doesn't getting any younger, and they really

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Speaker 3: could use just another dynamic wide receiver three. I know

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Speaker 3: that McVeigh, you know, the second half of the year

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Speaker 3: was using a lot more three tight ends. So like you,

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to see, like do they go get like

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Speaker 3: a tight end that's also a receiver, like a more

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Speaker 3: of a just a receiving threat that they could move

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Speaker 3: the uses more of a chess piece. But there's also

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Speaker 3: an argument to me that they could just upgrade the

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Speaker 3: wide receiver position as well and then just have another weapon.

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Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see how it impacts their their

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Speaker 3: draft decision, because I do think they are probably just

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Speaker 3: leaning toward at this point taking the best player available

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Speaker 3: on their board because they just don't they don't have

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Speaker 3: like glaring needs on that roster. So I'm curious to

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Speaker 3: see what the Rams do on on draft Day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well, so I've been drafting as well as any team,

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Speaker 3: yeah in the NFL in recent seasons. I mean, that

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Speaker 3: was they were in like that they basically sacrificed their

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Speaker 3: future for Super super Bowl less needed, and you know

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Speaker 3: that the meme of buck them draft picks with them picks,

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Speaker 3: and they were definitely going to take a big step back,

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Speaker 3: and I don't think be able to compete for another

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl unless they just nailed the draft consistently. And

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Speaker 3: then they did. They just nailed so many picks, Like

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Speaker 3: think about all the guys they drafted up front on

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Speaker 3: the defensive side of the ball that all hit and

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Speaker 3: that enabled them to remain competitive and as one of

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Speaker 3: the best teams in the NFL. So yeah, they've been

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Speaker 3: just amazing in the draft. So definitely be paying close

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Speaker 3: attention to what they do to supplement that roster that,

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Speaker 3: at least for this season, is one of the most

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Speaker 3: complete in the NFL with one of the fewest number

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Speaker 3: of holes.

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Speaker 4: You weren't here Tuesday, but I threw my chips in.

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Speaker 5: I think once Stafford retired, as we see Joe Burrow

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Speaker 5: move into that.

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Speaker 3: Slot, I could see that Hollywood Borrow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I stuck you for us. Random question, Well, the

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Speaker 2: other onson that was Cousins.

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Speaker 6: Do you.

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Speaker 3: That is a amazing an amazing signing for the twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty thirty six presidential election, the Cousins Mendoza ticket. I

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Speaker 3: mean those two guys. I used to always compare Mendoza

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Speaker 3: to Cousins, like with the way that his interviews were,

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Speaker 3: and I mean Mendoza has the funniest FoST game interviews.

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Speaker 3: He like he like does sermons. But Mendoza and Cousins together.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be besties.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that is.

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Speaker 4: They're the meum Vegas. Are we joking?

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Speaker 3: Is that a Republican or pretty sure? Is that a

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Speaker 3: Republican or Democratic ticket?

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Speaker 2: You already know the answer to that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, actually no, I don't know, because I am and those.

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Speaker 3: Are guys more I think a Democrat.

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Speaker 5: I agree, and I think our cousins would give Republican energy. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: so it's a moderate ticket.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd vote for.

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Speaker 3: Which I think, which I think would maybe play well.

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Speaker 4: Because mendozas Cuban, So that's good.

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Speaker 2: We need more. We need more middle of the road

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Speaker 2: politics anyway.

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Speaker 3: So but I think it was a smart signing, right

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Speaker 3: if you're if you're bringing in a young, uh you know,

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Speaker 3: a young quarterback who you think is going to be

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Speaker 3: your franchise quarterback, and you know you want it cannot

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Speaker 3: hurt to have a very veteran presence in the room

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Speaker 3: and a guy, if need be, if you need him

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Speaker 3: to start the season or step in, can still win games.

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Speaker 3: And the NFL is he showed last year. So I

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Speaker 3: thought it was a really smart signing and just amazing

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Speaker 3: because I've been comparing Mendoza to Cousins just for the

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Speaker 3: the postgame stuff for a while. So I chuckled when

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Speaker 3: I saw that.

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Speaker 5: I was going to say, I think that this adds

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Speaker 5: fuel to the Brady Fire of wanting Mendoza to sit

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Speaker 5: for a year two So I think that that's probably

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Speaker 5: what we're going to see happen now that they signed

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Speaker 5: Kirk Cousins. But we also have some breaking news. Josh

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Speaker 5: Allen and Hailey Steinfeld have welcomed their first child. So

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Speaker 5: congrats to them. I clown on Josh Allen a lot,

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Speaker 5: but good for them.

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Speaker 4: That's going to be a layer.

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Speaker 3: Does that mean they didn't say?

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Speaker 4: They didn't say, but be very talented, to be salented and.

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Speaker 2: Very very talented, very attractive baby, no doubt.

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Speaker 4: All right, that's our breaking.

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Speaker 2: News, the Prince of Buffalo.

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Speaker 6: So what does this mean?

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Speaker 2: It is?

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Speaker 4: This is the baby girl. Yes, it's the baby girl.

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Speaker 2: Trend, girl dad energy.

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Speaker 5: It's the girl dad try. I got to put a

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Speaker 5: future on Josh Allen. As soon as the show ends,

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Speaker 5: that's happening. I yeah, all right, I'm gonna beut on

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Speaker 5: them to win the division.

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Speaker 1: Now, so we are going to welcome in our guests

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Speaker 1: for today. Mike Calabrese joins us and we will get

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Speaker 1: to college basketball with you.

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Speaker 2: Mike. How's your tournament going?

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Speaker 6: By the way, it's good, But real quick, I got

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Speaker 6: to put on my Steve Karanaki hat or at least

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Speaker 6: throw on my Steve Karanaki. Khaki's real quick. You're saying

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Speaker 6: that Cousins and Mendoza is a moderate ticket. Cubans vote Republican.

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Speaker 6: They're like sixty eight percent Republican in the last cycle

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Speaker 6: in the state of Florida, so that that's a pretty

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Speaker 6: die in the wool red ticket if you put those

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Speaker 6: two together. Just throwing that out there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Calabrese is our resident political analysts, so I'm going

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Speaker 1: to defer to him on that.

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Speaker 2: Have you been mopping up?

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Speaker 3: And he was, He's like, is He's from Miami.

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Speaker 6: So because they're they're afraid of They're afraid of communism, socialism,

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Speaker 6: every ism. They don't want it, so they vote whatever

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Speaker 6: party says that they hate theisms the most.

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Speaker 4: Okay, fair here we are Politics Podcast. That's us.

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Speaker 6: You never know what you eat your heart save America.

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Speaker 6: To answer your question, it has been a roller coaster

390
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Speaker 6: for me in the tournament. The Elite eight Sweet sixteen

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Speaker 6: went a lot better than the first two rounds, just

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Speaker 6: the lack of upsets there. But as we talked about

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Speaker 6: on BBOC throughout the entire season, we're all the beneficiaries

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Speaker 6: of there not being a crazy amount of upsets. It's

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Speaker 6: sad to see the Cinderellas get clubbed in the opening weekend.

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Speaker 6: But then when you make it this deep, you get

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Speaker 6: these incredible matchups like Arizona Michigan, which is the highest

398
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 6: rated Ken Palm matchup of all time in the database

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Speaker 6: going back to ninety seven. I would say, from a

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Speaker 6: Final four perspective, if it can live up to the hype,

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00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 6: this is right there with like ninety one Duke UNLV

402
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 6: when UNLV was undefeated with Larry Johnson trying to run

403
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Speaker 6: it back against Christian Latoner Like, those are the levels

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Speaker 6: and the stakes in the neighborhood that we are finally

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Speaker 6: in here. And it's nice that we got these two

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Speaker 6: teams to be able to meet up in Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: Well see if we can tackle this from a betting

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00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 1: perspective and make you all a little.

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Speaker 2: Coin on our way out of the tournament in a moment.

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Speaker 1: But first, a word about DraftKings from none other than me.

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00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,160
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Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: Resident hooped college sports guru, Mike Calabrese from BBOC, among

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Speaker 1: many other wonderful action channels, is here with us to

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Speaker 1: talk Final Four. Mike, I'm curious, as a sports better,

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Speaker 1: how does your betting shift once you get into the postseason.

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Speaker 1: Does it ramp up? Does it slow down? Is it

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Speaker 1: more futures focused? How do you go about changing once

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Speaker 1: you get we get this wave of casual money. Does

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Speaker 1: that create value? Do you sense that that dries up?

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Speaker 1: What's the mentality as you go into the tournament and

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Speaker 1: has it changed it all?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 6: Well, you go from at least in my experience, you

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Speaker 6: go from Tuesday nights betting some at league basketball, where

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Speaker 6: you know there's probably tens of people who are betting

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Speaker 6: on Saint Thomas against South Dakota State to As you mentioned,

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Speaker 6: these games that have incredible volume, the markets get fine

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Speaker 6: tuned in that regard. But the other element that comes

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Speaker 6: into play is that all these sportsbooks are competing against

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Speaker 6: each other for eyeballs for the bets, so they start

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00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 6: to open up all these exotic markets and you get

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Speaker 6: opportunities to hit numbers that just aren't offered the rest

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Speaker 6: of the year and most of the mainstream books, and

442
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 6: generally speaking in terms of my diet as a gambler,

443
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 6: I start to lean into a few more player props,

444
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 6: a few more of those exotics. I have some here

445
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 6: on the Final four as well, I'll get into because

446
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 6: they're just not as you know, basically fine tuned, as

447
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 6: they said, and even some of them, you can see

448
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 6: books hang numbers that don't make sense. We've seen this

449
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 6: through this season where all of a sudden they'll leave

450
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 6: certain markets up where it's like which conference is going

451
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 6: to win the national championship and you can get a

452
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 6: higher odd on a Big East team as opposed to Yukon,

453
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 6: which is Yukon. So it's like in some cases all

454
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 6: you have to do is just go through. There's a

455
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 6: little easter eggs that you can find. You know, the

456
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 6: price differentials can be pretty significant between books. You can

457
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 6: middle you can hedge. There's all kinds of different ways

458
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 6: to do it, because for the most part, they're limiting

459
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 6: you in terms of how much you can bet in

460
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,719
Speaker 6: those situations. But at least those markets are being offered

461
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 6: really for the first time for college hoops, whereas you

462
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 6: know the NBA, these are kind of the prop markets

463
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 6: that are standard fair every single night.

464
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: Of the season.

465
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about the games that we have in

466
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 1: front of US Illinois and Yukon, Michigan Arizona heavyweight bout.

467
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: Do you think are you of the opinion that the

468
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 1: championship game is essentially Michigan Arizona. Do you give Illinois

469
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 1: or Yukon a legitimate fighting chance with how good they've been,

470
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 1: one of them obviously going to move on. Do you

471
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: view mission in Arizona is the de facto national championship

472
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: podds market would suggest that I don't.

473
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 6: I think if it ends up being let's say Arizona Illinois,

474
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 6: they'll probably close as a five point favorite. That's not

475
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 6: an insanely prohibitive favorite, you know, to have to go

476
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 6: up against. And I think for the most part, you know,

477
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 6: in this particular season. Yes, you can look at how

478
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 6: high Arizona and Michigan have climbed in terms of Ken

479
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 6: Palm ratings, but Illinois, if they have a night where

480
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 6: the three point shooting finally clicks, because for the majority

481
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 6: of you know, the season, at least the back half

482
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 6: of the season, they've been able to operate so well

483
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 6: in the half court, and they can kill you in

484
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 6: so many different ways, but they've been shooting about thirty

485
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 6: one percent from three. If all of a sudden, they

486
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,959
Speaker 6: have a night where they shoot thirty eight, thirty nine

487
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 6: to forty percent, they can beat anybody. So this idea

488
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 6: that Arizona or Michigan, whoever wins that semi final, can

489
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 6: just go ahead and pencil and cutting down the nets,

490
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 6: I think that's a bridge too far. I think there's

491
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 6: an opportunity, certainly to grab the fighting line. I pust

492
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 6: the points if it is Yukon, though, I think they'll

493
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 6: get fed into the woods sheepper whether they play Michigan

494
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 6: or Arizona. I just don't think they're equipped to be

495
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 6: able to handle a high scoring game where you probably

496
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 6: score in the nineties to beat those two teams, So

497
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 6: it really depends on the left side of the bracket

498
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 6: who comes out of it between Illinois and you come.

499
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 4: I have been getting murdered in this tournament.

500
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 5: I don't even want to bet on anything else the

501
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 5: rest of the season and at all, this has been

502
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 5: the worst gambling stretch I have ever had.

503
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 4: The only joy I.

504
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 5: Have found has been in the Dan Hurley memes. But

505
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 5: how much does coaching matter at this point in the season.

506
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 5: Is that something that you're kind of factoring into all

507
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 5: of this, And if so, who do you.

508
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 4: Have your eye on for this final four coming up?

509
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,199
Speaker 6: Yeah, coaching absolutely has to matter. It clearly matters in

510
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 6: terms of crunch time, in terms of late game execution,

511
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 6: in terms of having an alternate plan if you know

512
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 6: the opposition takes away your strength. And Hurley proved, you know,

513
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 6: down the stretch against Duke, where Duke was trying to

514
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 6: manufacture offense, where just Boozer just backs in and pounds

515
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 6: the ball six or seven times and tries to muscle

516
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 6: his way into the hoop. That was their go to Yukon.

517
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 6: When you watch them, they're calling actual plays. They got

518
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 6: all kinds of screen and cutter action and they're you know,

519
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 6: the ball is moving quickly, and Caravan is someone who's

520
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 6: facilitating and knocking down shots, and Mullins, you know, obviously

521
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 6: makes that shot to send them to the championship or

522
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 6: to the final four. But the difference is that Hurley

523
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 6: is someone I have ultimate confidence and it's proven in

524
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 6: itself time and time again. This guy is absolutely nails

525
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 6: after he gets out of the first weekend of the

526
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 6: NCAA tournament. So you have to put him number one

527
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 6: with a bullet He's the top guy in this situation,

528
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 6: and then the rest. You know, obviously I would go

529
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 6: with Dusty May. You know, you get Fau within a

530
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 6: shot of playing for the national championship and then you're

531
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 6: back here again. It's not a coincidence. But the other

532
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 6: two guys, I mean, you can kind of flip a

533
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 6: coin between Underwood and Lloyd. You know, Lloyd in terms

534
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 6: of his scheme, it's kind of a copy and paste

535
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 6: from Mark Few all the success they had in Spokane. Like,

536
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 6: this is a situation where I think he's obviously an

537
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 6: offensive coach. First, I wonder what it's going to take

538
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 6: defensively to be able to slow down Michigan. This is

539
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 6: a proven situation for me to elevate them to an

540
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 6: elite level, and Underwood has done it at so many

541
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 6: different stops. But sometimes I do feel as though he's

542
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 6: been out coached at times in the tournament, and unfortunately

543
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 6: he's you know, staring that man in the mirror right now,

544
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 6: which is what did I do last time that I

545
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 6: faced you know, Hurley in the tournament? They went to

546
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 6: the elite eight in twenty twenty three and got crushed

547
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 6: by twenty five points. So can he rise to this moment?

548
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 6: And you know, you're not gonna out coach Hurly, but

549
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 6: certainly not have it be such a disparity between the

550
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 6: two coaching staffs. If that's the case, that this is

551
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 6: a great legacy Final four for so many of these coaches.

552
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 6: Hurley's already cemented, but these other guys can take a

553
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 6: huge step four in terms of their national perspective and

554
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 6: how people view them.

555
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, we just saw, We just saw the I mean

556
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 3: the head coaches rightfully so get most of the pub

557
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: But like Yukon with Hurley has been incredible. Their staff

558
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 3: is really good, their assistance. But I think the Illinois

559
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 3: staff outside of Underwood is pretty underrated this season, so

560
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: it's not always just a head coach. But I think

561
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 3: that that's one of the most interesting get betting storylines

562
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: for me is in that Illinois Yukon game. I mean,

563
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 3: Illinois has clearly been the superior team this year. I mean,

564
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 3: this is a team that since December first, they haven't

565
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 3: lost a game that didn't go to overtime or that

566
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: wasn't decided that the Buzzer. Outside of Michigan, that's it.

567
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 3: They had four overtime losses they lost in Nebraska at

568
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 3: the Buzzer, all against tournament teams. And Yukon on the

569
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 3: other hand, and Illinois, like Arizona, Michigan has won every

570
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 3: tournament game by double digits. On the other hand, Yukon

571
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: has struggled to get to this point.

572
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 5: Right.

573
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 3: They almost blew a twenty point lead against Michigan State,

574
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 3: they needed a miraculous twenty point comeback against Duke. They

575
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: played a shorthanded UCLA team that they're argued to their

576
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 3: best player, and then they were kind of strong going with

577
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 3: Furman in the first round, and then coming into the tournament,

578
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 3: they lost four of eleven, a couple to non tournament teams,

579
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 3: including creating at home at Marquette. So this team has

580
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 3: had its ups and downs, and they've they're I think

581
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 3: clearly if you just look at body of work overall roster,

582
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 3: I think they're the worst team that's left. But you

583
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: have the Hurley factor and he's fourteen and zero against

584
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: the spread in the second round or later, which is

585
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 3: just incredible. So how much is that worth? What is

586
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: the Hurley tax worth? And that because I think most

587
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: pure number sides i'm just under four. I project this

588
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 3: just under four. But I know that Hurley in the

589
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: in the tournament setting deserves a little bit of a bump.

590
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: How much is that bump? I know that there's going

591
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 3: to be a lot of casual money that will be

592
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: like Yukon is a dog here, especially after they just

593
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 3: be duke. That will probably blood in later in the week.

594
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: Doesn't mean it's wrong. There's a lot of casual money

595
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 3: on Yukon last week as a dog. But there's also

596
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: going to be disagreement, I think among sharper money of

597
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 3: how much is that worth to the spread because is

598
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 3: it is it a point or more? And what should

599
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: that true fair number be? So I'm curious to watch

600
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 3: where that line goes, I mean, it's it's not gonna

601
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 3: move a ton, but does it settle it one and

602
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: a half or two and a half. So that's that's

603
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 3: definitely interesting storyline because fourteen and oh against the spread

604
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 3: in the second round or later is just almost impossible

605
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: to believe.

606
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: First half unders in final four games has been a

607
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: pretty phenomenal trend. Maybe we can get Evan to enlighten

608
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: us on exactly what that looks like. Teams are tight,

609
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 1: early nervous players, big stage, we're in football, stadium, site,

610
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: lines are weird, elevated court, all of those things play

611
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: a factor here, Evan.

612
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 2: If is that true?

613
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 3: Final four first?

614
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: So much is that? Evan?

615
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have that handy or if

616
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: you need us to give you another minute, But this

617
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: is a betting angle that I have heard in more

618
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: than one place. I don't have the numbers in front

619
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: of me, but do you have that handy?

620
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: I think that's actually not true.

621
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 1: So I would think that unders and just unders in general,

622
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: because of the different atmosphere, the enhanced pressure, and the

623
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 1: stadium setting, the cavernous nature to it. Calibres is that

624
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: something that you look towards as we get to the

625
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: final four with these different site lines, I'm going.

626
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 6: To take this in a slightly different direction. I think

627
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 6: there's so many international players who have played in so

628
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 6: many different venues and are kind of used to this pressure,

629
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 6: like the narrative about the transfer portal, but also the

630
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 6: international flavor of it. I don't think it's coincidental that

631
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 6: a lot of the teams that have made as Indianapolis

632
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,959
Speaker 6: have this international DNA because some of these teams, they

633
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 6: just seem to be totally unflappable in the situation and

634
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 6: just going through the rosters. You know, for the casuals

635
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 6: who are listening, some of these locations are just absolutely

636
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 6: like insane in terms of this roster building. You know,

637
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 6: you have Illinois, you got the ev Sitches, they're both

638
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 6: from Croatia. You got Murkovich is from Montenegro. Petrovic is

639
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 6: from Serbia. By the way, for Mrkovich, he's from Nixik, Montenegro,

640
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 6: which is known as the city of Beer, steal and

641
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 6: rock and roll in American City's got to steal that

642
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 6: tagline because that's amazing. Nick sick Gold, by the way,

643
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 6: great Pilsner style beer. And then on the other side,

644
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 6: This one's for you. Kendra. Little Birdie told me that

645
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 6: you're really into cats.

646
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 3: Is that true?

647
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 4: Yes?

648
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 6: Okay, So if we look at Krevas, he is from shol, Lithuania,

649
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 6: which is known for its world famous cat museum.

650
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 3: So there you go.

651
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 5: I thought you were going to say Turkey because Istambel's

652
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 5: the city of cats.

653
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 6: Do you think that this is yeah?

654
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 5: Do you think that this is going to be a

655
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 5: trend moving forward, because obviously two of the teams left

656
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 5: have like massive foreign exchange student situations going on. Are

657
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 5: we going to see this be really popular in the

658
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 5: coming years of these tournaments.

659
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 6: I think it's difficult to pull it off at this scale.

660
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: Now.

661
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 6: Tommy Lloyd, as I mentioned, he came from you know,

662
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 6: the Zags, working under Mark Few as an assistant. He

663
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 6: was always in charge of international recruiting. It's one of

664
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 6: the reasons why they had so many quality international bigs

665
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 6: that he went out. You have to it's more than

666
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 6: just like hop on a plane with a bag of money,

667
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 6: get the exchange rate and then hand it out and

668
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 6: all of a sudden you have these top players. You

669
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 6: have to know the academies, you have to know the

670
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 6: semi pro teams. You also have to know the you know,

671
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 6: international law and NCAA bylaws for who's eligible and what

672
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 6: you can do. So kind of like laying that pipework.

673
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 6: You know, pipeline takes time. It's not necessarily something that

674
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 6: you can just flip a switch on with money in

675
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 6: the way that you can, you know, with the transfer

676
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 6: portal for at least domestic players.

677
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: I'll say, Oh, by the way, Kendra, my favorite cat

678
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 3: place in the US is, uh, the Hemingway House in

679
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 3: key West. Have you ever been there?

680
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 4: I've been. I've been to Key West, but I haven't

681
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 4: been in the Hemingway House. So I'll have to go.

682
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 4: I'll sirt tech it up.

683
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 3: You've never you went to You went to QS and

684
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 3: easn go to the Hemingway House.

685
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 4: No, I wasn't with the gates. We were just hammered.

686
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I was happening the whole time too. That's

687
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 3: like the one the only productive thing I did. But

688
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 3: I also love m Ayway. But I just looked it up,

689
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 3: so you would think your your logic is sound, but

690
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: also keep in mind scoring is up across the sport.

691
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 3: Like a lot of people blindly got these first half

692
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 3: unders in the first round with that same kind of logic.

693
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 3: But this year they got crushed doing that, which means.

694
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 4: Next year is going to be the year to do it.

695
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 1: I was one of them, by the way, and I

696
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: picked my spots. I didn't just like board bit it

697
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: and I was slightly profitable, but yeah, it was not

698
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: It wasn't this big money maker.

699
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: Like I'm sure the.

700
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 3: Reason I said that can't be right is because I

701
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 3: know that historically Elite eight unders in the first half

702
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 3: have always been very profitable and they're very slow, and

703
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 3: then final fours actually start fast. My hypothesis has always

704
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: been teams play a little really tight when they want

705
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 3: to because they know a trip to the final four,

706
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 3: that's like the ultimate prize is on the line. And

707
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 3: then once you get to the final four, teams kind

708
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 3: of up a little bit.

709
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: That's what it's like free money kind of playing with.

710
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then like game in the final four, games

711
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 3: actually get tighter late, but they're actually if you just

712
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 3: look at like tempo numbers compared to expectation, they're actually

713
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 3: faster early and the numbers back that up.

714
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: So Evan has shared the numbers with US fifteen and twelve.

715
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 3: To the over. Yeah, that's over in the first twelve

716
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: and one to the over, So unders would be twelve

717
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 3: fifteen and one is that?

718
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: So you're right, But the angle, the angle is the

719
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: second half, second half.

720
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: Under twenty eight and fourteen in the elite eight.

721
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: Or later, the second half under sixty six and thirty

722
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 1: six sixty five percent since twenty eleven, So that might

723
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: be backs up what.

724
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 3: I just said. So like start fast and then teams

725
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 3: get really tight, especially like in a close game, and

726
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 3: then the possessions you know, with so much more, meaning

727
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 3: teams are playing like extra cautious and not running as much.

728
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, but first half first half under have been

729
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 3: have not been profitable. Doesn't mean that they can't hit

730
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 3: this weekend, But I wouldn't blindly just bet that.

731
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: All right, it'll be changing my DK pick for a

732
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 2: moment after this.

733
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 1: The calibrees if we're looking at the betting splits here,

734
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the bets, sixty eight percent of

735
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 1: the money on Illinois so bets tickets, and money on

736
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 1: the fighting alone.

737
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: I's side the line.

738
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,720
Speaker 1: By the way, both of these lines pretty much parked

739
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: that one's at minus two minus two and a half

740
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:36,959
Speaker 1: all week. There are some one and a half's out

741
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: there if you want to be on the Illinois side.

742
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 1: And then for Michigan Arizona forty two percent of the

743
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: bets fifty four percent of the money. So we've got

744
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: a diff there. On the Michigan Wolverines. That line has

745
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 1: been parked at one one and a half in favor

746
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 1: of Michigan all week. Is there anything to take from this?

747
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: Are you surprised at all where the.

748
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 2: Action is coming in on both of these games?

749
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 6: No, honest, you know Illinois. You look at every advanced

750
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 6: metrics site, you know, Mia, torvik Ken Palm, they all

751
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 6: have them as a slightly larger favorite than that. And

752
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 6: I think that's the Hurley tax. I think that's the

753
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 6: you know, public coming in and backing someone who has

754
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 6: been an ATM for them at least this deep in

755
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 6: the tournament for years. But when I look at that,

756
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 6: that doesn't surprise me. On the other side, Arizona Michigan,

757
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 6: it's a coin flip game. You can talk yourself into

758
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 6: either one. And you know, from a narrative standpoint, from

759
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 6: a brand of basketball from you know, some of their

760
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 6: comps where they have a few common opponents There's lots

761
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 6: of different ways you can go back and forth, and

762
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 6: that's one of the reasons why I would put this

763
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 6: out there right from the get go. If you think

764
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 6: this is going to be a historically good matchup between

765
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 6: Arizona and Michigan and you just want to enjoy the game,

766
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 6: there's a great way to do it, which is you

767
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 6: can have the margin of victory in either direction at

768
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 6: one to five points at plus one forty out in

769
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 6: the market. So all you're really looking for is a

770
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 6: close game. I think that's an incredible bet. I also

771
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 6: liked the overtime market. When it opens at plus fourteen hundred,

772
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 6: that is cratered down to plus seven fifty, So I

773
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 6: think that's a pass for me now. But if you're

774
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 6: just looking for these games and you're kind of, you know,

775
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 6: talking against yourself and making you know, both sides of

776
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 6: the argument, why not just lean into that a little

777
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 6: bit and then play for a close matchup.

778
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 3: Also, keep in mind, like ninety percent of the tickets

779
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,479
Speaker 3: frore on Michigan against Tennessee last week, like the ghost

780
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 3: can win, and more importantly, it's it's Thursday. Most of

781
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: the casual action is going to be placed on Saturday.

782
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 2: Yep, no doubt.

783
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 1: Let's throw together our Draft Kings parlay for our final

784
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: four picks. Everything is available, a full menu of options

785
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,959
Speaker 1: over at our favorite sports book.

786
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 2: Draft Kings with a Crown is yours. Kendro.

787
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 1: We start with you because you've been so hot in

788
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: college basketball.

789
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 4: Oh my god, you guys, I'm gonna cry.

790
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 5: I was really set on the Illinois money line, but

791
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 5: after the Dan Hurley speech, I am now really really

792
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 5: sweaty in my own apartment with my heat off. I'm

793
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 5: still gonna stick with my Illinois choice just because I

794
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 5: think their roster is better, and that matters more than

795
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 5: a great coach with a less with a lesser roster

796
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 5: at this point, so I'm gonna stick with my guns,

797
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 5: even though my guns have been.

798
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 4: Unloaded and shitty.

799
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 5: I feel like I'm showing up to a gunfight with

800
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 5: a knife, But whatever.

801
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: Fuck it, here we go, said with full confidence Calabrese,

802
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: what about you.

803
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 6: I'm gonna go with a player prop Brandon Burry's for Arizona.

804
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 6: He's been someone who's helped space the floor. He can

805
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 6: knock down threes. The three point market has blown up

806
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 6: like it was a money maker, particularly from a ladder strategy,

807
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 6: He's made over three points or three triples per game

808
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 6: during the tournament, So let's put that aside and just

809
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 6: focus in on his point total. Because when they play

810
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 6: up tempo teams, Burry's is the beneficiary of more scoring.

811
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 6: So let's go over sixteen and a half. You can

812
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 6: ladder it up, you know, to get to twenty plus

813
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 6: one seventy over twenty four and a half, almost five

814
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 6: to one. Keep in mind, when they played super fast

815
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 6: teams like Bama K State BYU, he scored at least

816
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 6: twenty eight points. And they just played against Arkansas. He

817
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 6: had twenty four points early, you know, in the second half,

818
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 6: and they kind of just coasted late. They didn't need

819
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 6: him to score anymore. So I think there's an opportunity

820
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 6: for him to have a big breakout game, and if

821
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 6: they do win and get to the national Championship, it's

822
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 6: going to be on his back.

823
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the under in Arizona Michigan.

824
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 1: We're expecting frasier Ali in this one, and usually those

825
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,479
Speaker 1: kind of games, I like to tilt towards the under.

826
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 1: If we're gonna have some bigs battling down low and rebounds,

827
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 1: and every possession is going to matter so much in

828
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 1: these games. I was gonna go first half, you guys

829
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: talked me off that, So we'll just go full game

830
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: under one fifty seven and a half from Michigan Arizona

831
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: the heavyweight bout late into the evening, Stucky, what about you.

832
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 3: Let's go Arizona plus one and a half. I make

833
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: them a very very tiny favorite. I think that there's

834
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 3: some matchup advantages that they could take advantage off. I

835
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 3: ramble about this game on and on. I wrote about

836
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: it on the Action app. Listen to Big Bets on

837
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 3: campus if you want to hear in depth breakdown, I won't.

838
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 3: I'll spare you from a fifteen minute ramble. But let's

839
00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: go Arizona plus one and a half.

840
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 1: So if we put all of those together, we've got

841
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: Bury's who is at over sixteen and a half points

842
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: scored the under Michigan Arizona one fifty seven and a half,

843
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 1: Arizona plus one and a half against Michigan and the

844
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: Illinois money line. We get home at plus ten point

845
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: fifty over on draft kings where the crown is yours.

846
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 1: Then I'll do it for today's episode, Thanks to Mike

847
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 1: Calabres for hopping in with us Stucky, so good to

848
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 1: have you back on the pod. Shout out to our

849
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, Statsound Evan Abrams. We've

850
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 1: got more great content coming up next week. The Favorites

851
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: will be back on Tuesday, and as always, you can

852
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page

853
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 1: or wherever you download your favorite podcast. So see you

854
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 1: next time here on the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings,

855
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:57,840
Speaker 1: The Crown is yours.

856
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 6: Action Network reminds minds you please gamble responsibly.

857
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

858
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

859
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:09,280
Speaker 4: hundred gambler