WEBVTT - Gareth Jenkins on Turkey: U.S Relations Will Be Strained(Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>This is taking stock with pin Box and Kathleen Hayes

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Turkish authority US have moved to widen

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<v Speaker 1>their purge of perceived opponents, removing thousands of police officers

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<v Speaker 1>from their posts. This is all part of a crackdown

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<v Speaker 1>that follows the failed military coup attempt that was aimed

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<v Speaker 1>at toppling the government of President Urign. Here to tell

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<v Speaker 1>us more, Gareth Jenkins. He is a writer, independent political

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<v Speaker 1>security analyst and a senior fellow with the Central Asia

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<v Speaker 1>Caucuss Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program joint Center.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us from Istanbul. Gareth, thank you very much

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<v Speaker 1>for being with us. Begin by telling us where you

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<v Speaker 1>were when the coup attempt took place. Well, on last

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<v Speaker 1>Friday night, I was actually returning. I live on the

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<v Speaker 1>Asian side of the city nights, returning from the European side,

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<v Speaker 1>across one of the bridges over the Bosphorus Um in

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<v Speaker 1>a little minibus when we noticed there was a unit

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<v Speaker 1>of Turkish soldiers, mostly conscripts, shutting off the bridge. Did

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<v Speaker 1>you believe was happening? Well, normally the responsibility to security

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<v Speaker 1>on the bridge belongs to the police. There occasionally, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>a bomb threats in Istanbul, we have a bad security situation.

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<v Speaker 1>Also occasionally people try to commit suicide by jumping off

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<v Speaker 1>the bridge, and when that happened, it's always the police

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<v Speaker 1>are responsible for diverting traffic. So as soon as I

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<v Speaker 1>saw the military uniforms and this was regular army. I

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<v Speaker 1>knew something was very strange was going on, but it

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't until then I got on my telephone and I

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<v Speaker 1>spoke to people in Anchor were being told that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>jets had been flying low over the parliament to understand

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<v Speaker 1>understood that this was actually a coup attempt. Now the

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<v Speaker 1>Interior Ministry says that it is fired nearly nine thousand

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<v Speaker 1>police officers, and this follows the arrest of more than

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<v Speaker 1>six thousand military personnel as well as generals and admirals.

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<v Speaker 1>They also suspended nearly three thousand judges over the weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>Who are these people? What did they want to accomplish?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the honest answers of that. These people in

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<v Speaker 1>the innocence of charges. I mean the latest figure that's

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<v Speaker 1>going around the Turkish media that a hundred generals and

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<v Speaker 1>admirals have been taken into custody. There's only three hundred

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<v Speaker 1>in the whole armed forces. I mean, to put it bluntly,

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<v Speaker 1>if this number, if one third of the generals and

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<v Speaker 1>adamals have been involved in the coup plot, it probably

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<v Speaker 1>would have succeeded um. In the early hours after that,

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<v Speaker 1>the the attempted coup. The number of people who have

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<v Speaker 1>been taken into custody was only around about two thousands,

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<v Speaker 1>and those are the people who've gone taken up the

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<v Speaker 1>streets that the military units should include a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>conscripts like the ones I saw on the bridge. These

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<v Speaker 1>are young boys who didn't know what they were doing

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<v Speaker 1>um and thought they were just as part of some

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<v Speaker 1>kind of military exercise. So the number of people actually

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<v Speaker 1>took to the streets is um of the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>coup plot is only a few hundred. And yet we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen with President Alan since this happened, and it was

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<v Speaker 1>a genuine a champ, there's no question about that, but

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<v Speaker 1>he's used as an excuse basically to try to destroy

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<v Speaker 1>um all of the people he suspects of not being

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<v Speaker 1>sufficiently loyal to him personally in the armed forces and

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<v Speaker 1>the judiciary. The an answment about two thousand, nine hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty judges and prosecutors came within hours of the

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<v Speaker 1>coup being sucressly rolled up. We still haven't seen any

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<v Speaker 1>evidence whatsoever for their involvement in the coup. Well Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of Stage Arm Kerry in Brussels today he urged Turkey

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<v Speaker 1>to show restraint as much as Turkey is a member

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<v Speaker 1>of NATO. Do you think that Turkey it takes any

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<v Speaker 1>of these comments seriously? The evidence at the moment suggests

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<v Speaker 1>so much not. Um. No, we were seeing these purges

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<v Speaker 1>increasing and widening. We've also had more than a dozen

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<v Speaker 1>news sites closed down in the last couple of days. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>So it doesn't These warnings don't seem to be making

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<v Speaker 1>any difference whatsoever. Do you have any insight into who

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<v Speaker 1>the coup plotters are and what did they really want

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<v Speaker 1>to accomplish in policy terms? Um? What's coming out of

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<v Speaker 1>the government of these are reported to be the followers

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<v Speaker 1>of the Islamic preacher of Fetula Gulen has been living

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<v Speaker 1>in exile and Pennsylvania's that they have yet to produce

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<v Speaker 1>any proof linking Glenn or any of his followers to

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<v Speaker 1>what actually happened. When you look at the profile of

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<v Speaker 1>the coup plot as they took over the tr tr T,

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<v Speaker 1>the States run television station and released the declaration, the

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<v Speaker 1>name that they gave themselves and the content of that

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<v Speaker 1>declaration much more consistent with a very small number of

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<v Speaker 1>hardline secular Turkish nationalists, members of the Officer Corps then

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<v Speaker 1>they are with the followers of the Tula Gulen. But

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment we don't really know that. I should

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<v Speaker 1>the size that the government, even though it's accusing Glenn,

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<v Speaker 1>and they have these some ministers who have said directly

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<v Speaker 1>because Glenn's in the States, actually America was behind the coup.

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<v Speaker 1>They haven't yet produced one shred of evidence to support

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<v Speaker 1>these clamps. And they've also tried to initiate extradition proceedings.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't that correct. They said they're going to. They haven't

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<v Speaker 1>officially started it yet, but they said they're going to.

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<v Speaker 1>And John Kerry, you know, I said, if they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to do this, they need to produce some proof that

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<v Speaker 1>Glen has been behind it. Now, the scale of the purges,

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<v Speaker 1>especially among these security forces. How is the public reacted

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<v Speaker 1>to this news? I think with a lot of shock.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it was it was very shocking experience to

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<v Speaker 1>go through anyway, until five o'clock in the morning, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>I had F sixteen flying very low over my apartment

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<v Speaker 1>and with the sonic booms shaking the building. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think a lot of the Turkish population, like me, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't really slept very much. We're still stunned that

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<v Speaker 1>this happened at all, and then to see the scale

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<v Speaker 1>of the retaliation of these purges being implemented by aired Land.

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<v Speaker 1>Whereas I said, I think anybody knows that if a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and three generals and admirals have been involved, this

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<v Speaker 1>coup would have succeeded. This is not possible. But around

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<v Speaker 1>about a thousand, one thousand, five hundred people on the streets,

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<v Speaker 1>including conscripts who didn't know what they were doing. And

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<v Speaker 1>then to say this was part of a massive coup

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<v Speaker 1>plot involving one third of the high command of the

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<v Speaker 1>armed forces. So I think it's clear to everybody that

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<v Speaker 1>something very strange is going on, and what the government

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<v Speaker 1>says it's doing is not actually what's taking place. What

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<v Speaker 1>is the backdrop for those interested in the health or

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<v Speaker 1>the struggle of the Turkish economy currently, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>main as I'm talking to you, as some of the

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<v Speaker 1>airline supporters are going down to the street behind, we've

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<v Speaker 1>also had a lot of these taking to the streets

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<v Speaker 1>in in the last couple of days, and um, this

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<v Speaker 1>is going to have a direct impact, I think, first

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<v Speaker 1>of all, on on tourism. Tourism has already been hard

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<v Speaker 1>hit by the bombings. We've had a very strong security concerns.

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<v Speaker 1>Um the next one I think is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>the Turkey looks at the moment like, uh, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>very unstable country, perhaps even on the verge of becoming

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<v Speaker 1>a failed state. That's the perception. I'm not saying that's

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<v Speaker 1>how it is, so of course we're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>investors becoming very cautious. The stock market in Istanbul took

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<v Speaker 1>a big hit today, I think it was down nearly

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent, and Turkey is very heavily dependent on foreign financing,

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<v Speaker 1>so I think as your companies, they'll find it very

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<v Speaker 1>difficult to get new loans at the moment from abroad,

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<v Speaker 1>and as they roll over existing loans, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>the risk premium is probably going to be quite high.

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<v Speaker 1>We're speaking with Gareth Jenkins. He is a writer, independent

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<v Speaker 1>political security analyst and also a senior Fellow with the

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<v Speaker 1>Central Asia Asia Caucuses Institute in Silk Road Studies Program

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<v Speaker 1>joint ENTERM. Gareth, the ongoing efforts to fight ISIS by

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<v Speaker 1>using American air bases in Turkey. Is that effort going

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<v Speaker 1>to be compromised because of the reaction to the coup

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<v Speaker 1>attempted coup. Rather, I think that generally Turkish security is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be compromised by all of these purges, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean as well as ISIS. Of course, Turkey is engaged

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<v Speaker 1>in a war with the Kurdistan Workers Party the p

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<v Speaker 1>k K. We've got a huge amount of confusion at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment in the security apparatus, which includes intelligence, which

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<v Speaker 1>is essential to of course to try to intercept ISIS.

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<v Speaker 1>We saw on immediately out of the coup that the

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<v Speaker 1>main base in the southeast Turkey, Angelic, which the US

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<v Speaker 1>is using for the campaign against ISIS lexicity there was cut,

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<v Speaker 1>so the US had to suspend its air campaign for time.

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<v Speaker 1>And it looks like we're going to have some very

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<v Speaker 1>serious tensions but focle tensions between Washington and Anchor over

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<v Speaker 1>aired once assistance on the extradition of Gulen, which is

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<v Speaker 1>going to make it very difficult to have the cooperation,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly at a time when the US use of a

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<v Speaker 1>Turkish air space is of those Turkish air base is

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<v Speaker 1>so critical to its campaign against sciences. And just quickly Garetha.

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<v Speaker 1>When the President again arrived in in Istanbul, it was Istanbul,

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<v Speaker 1>not the capital Anchora. What does that tell us there

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<v Speaker 1>were concerns that there were some rebel F sixteen in

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<v Speaker 1>the air, and there was also a lot of concerns

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<v Speaker 1>in about the situation in Anchor because the the high

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<v Speaker 1>command of the of the military had been taken hostage

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<v Speaker 1>by the coup plotters, and as far as I know,

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<v Speaker 1>I haven't seen ed and then stayed in Example for

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<v Speaker 1>several days rather than trying to go to the Anchor.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much for spending time with us. Gareth

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<v Speaker 1>Jenkins is a writer, independent political security analyst and also

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<v Speaker 1>a Senior Fellow with the Central Asia Caucuses Institute and

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<v Speaker 1>Silk Roads Study Program. You're listening to taking Stock. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Pim Fox and this is Bloomberg. H