Speaker 1: Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins. Now, let me check
Speaker 1: your pulse if you're not for though, What is up? Dolphins?
Speaker 1: And welcome to the Draft Time podcast, part of the
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins podcast network, covering your team, your Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 1: How's it going? Everybody? I am your host, Travis Wingfield
Speaker 1: And on today's show, it is turned the Page Wednesday.
Speaker 1: It brings us to another preview podcast. Here we're looking
Speaker 1: ahead at Sunday to the Carolina Panthers by assessing the matchups,
Speaker 1: looking at the biggest storylines and the keys to victory
Speaker 1: from the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
Speaker 1: This is the Drift Time Podcast. Magie Daffy Shush, another
Speaker 1: sunny Sunday at hard Rock Stadium, and for those out
Speaker 1: of town fans, you might be excited to learn that
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be an absolute scorcher on Sunday. We've
Speaker 1: had a tame October in terms of temperatures recently, but
Speaker 1: that is out the window when the lot of Panthers
Speaker 1: migrate south for this interconference affair. A heat wave is
Speaker 1: currently pushing through South Florida that will have you ninety
Speaker 1: degree temperatures on Sunday with seventy five percent humidity, and
Speaker 1: that gives you a real feel of ninety six degrees yauzer.
Speaker 1: That's one of the many obstacles the windless Panthers will
Speaker 1: face when they arrive in South Florida for this matchup.
Speaker 1: Coach McDaniel spoke about the dangers of facing a winless
Speaker 1: team and how they kind of play with nothing to
Speaker 1: lose and the being pushed up against a losing streak
Speaker 1: like the Dolphins were last year on a five game
Speaker 1: losing streak, the same thing that Panthers face this year.
Speaker 1: That you can get a little bit more production, a
Speaker 1: little bit more gusto, a little bit more urgency when
Speaker 1: you're coming off of those situations. So something keep an
Speaker 1: eye on. Coach touched on that. He touched on Bryce
Speaker 1: Young the Panthers as a whole in his Wednesday press conference.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play the sound for you guys
Speaker 1: here because I think that it's you know, coach speaking
Speaker 1: about an opponent, and you can just find that on
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel on his media availability. That's going to
Speaker 1: be a brief history here of the Panthers before we
Speaker 1: get to the storylines. Ahead of this contest, and the
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight Panthers is where I wanted to
Speaker 1: start this because that was one of my favorite teams
Speaker 1: of all time. The backfield of Jonathan Stewart DeAngelo Williams.
Speaker 1: They had shades of Ricky and Ronnie, or of Camara
Speaker 1: and Ingram and now Lens. The days of the two
Speaker 1: headed run, heavy attack running back. That doesn't really exist anymore.
Speaker 1: You have committees nowadays, and some teams have their top dogs,
Speaker 1: but it's just different. Back then, it was like you
Speaker 1: have one good one great. If you have two really
Speaker 1: good ones, then you were kind of a unicorn across
Speaker 1: the National Football League. But then fittingly, I also fell
Speaker 1: in love with them from afar again. I used to
Speaker 1: always pick like one NFC team every year that I
Speaker 1: thought was going to exceed expectations and had players I liked,
Speaker 1: maybe went draft heavy on Travis's man crushes in the draft.
Speaker 1: I don't really do that anymore. I guess I just
Speaker 1: don't care. I don't have the time now that I
Speaker 1: have a family and kids to actually, you know, follow
Speaker 1: around opposed to just being a full time football fan.
Speaker 1: But those Panthers teams often put themselves in that category,
Speaker 1: and ironically again with one of the best runners of
Speaker 1: all time, but at the quarterback position with Cam Newton,
Speaker 1: and in those Newton years, they were playoff regulars, a
Speaker 1: threat to make a run through the NFC playoffs every
Speaker 1: single season since then, Man, it has been a slog
Speaker 1: I just stinkly remember Cam bawling out in that twenty
Speaker 1: seven team playoff game against the Saints in a very
Speaker 1: very fun back and forth game with Drew Brees and
Speaker 1: a very talented Saints roster. Wasn't that the Saints team
Speaker 1: that got bounced by the no That was the following
Speaker 1: year I digress and I bet one that Panthers, thinking
Speaker 1: back to that game, think of rather fondly given their
Speaker 1: recent run, because a seven to nine season followed that,
Speaker 1: and then the floor fell out in twenty nineteen, a
Speaker 1: five and eleven campaign, Remember they still only played sixteen
Speaker 1: games in the sport, and that brought the end of
Speaker 1: the Ron Rivera era, the riv era. I'll be here
Speaker 1: all week. Tip your watressus bartenders. Nine seasons, four playoff runs,
Speaker 1: and offensive Rookie of the Year followed by a Defensive
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year followed by a Defensive Player of
Speaker 1: the Year that was the same guy, Luke Keikley, Walter
Speaker 1: Payton Man of the Year, and Thomas Davis and then
Speaker 1: Cam Newton book ends his Rookie of the Year with
Speaker 1: an MVP in twenty fifteen, and of course Rivera had
Speaker 1: Coach of the Year in twenty fifteen as well. Enter
Speaker 1: Matt Rule five and eleven, five and twelve, one and four,
Speaker 1: and then a coaching change and Steve Wilkes steps in
Speaker 1: and guides them to a six and six finish, but
Speaker 1: they move on and I was against that, but I
Speaker 1: also love Frank Reich, so I understand that decision. Who
Speaker 1: was kind of the surprise dismissal of the league last
Speaker 1: year falling on the sword in Indianapolis sword sword. And
Speaker 1: the reason I lay all of this out is to say,
Speaker 1: the type of turnover they've experienced typically creates a snowball
Speaker 1: effect of conflicting ideals and puts you in a difficult
Speaker 1: position from a roster construction standpoint. I mean, I told
Speaker 1: you guys this, I told you guys this, and not
Speaker 1: to victory lap here too hard five games in. But
Speaker 1: it was always always glaringly obvious to me as it
Speaker 1: was pre draft. They took the wrong guy. They just
Speaker 1: took the wrong guy. They traded up eight spots and
Speaker 1: were staring one of the most polished quarterbacks to come
Speaker 1: out since twenty twenty when to and Burrow were coming
Speaker 1: out as polish quarterbacks. They were staring another freak of
Speaker 1: nature who quite frankly, might be the best ball of
Speaker 1: raw clay the position has ever seen, at least since
Speaker 1: Vick and Anthony Richardson. And they took the wrong guy.
Speaker 1: You know, I see Jets fans questioning why Zach Wilson
Speaker 1: can't harness all this great talent that he possesses, and
Speaker 1: that confusion is really just a symptom of not knowing
Speaker 1: what the hell you're watching. Like sorry, not sorry, but
Speaker 1: bailing on clean pockets and throwing cool pro day throws
Speaker 1: down the field against for future insurance salesman doesn't really
Speaker 1: move the needle at this level. Bubba. Bryce Young was
Speaker 1: a master creator in college. He rarely won from structure.
Speaker 1: And isn't it crazy how that through line like never changes.
Speaker 1: That's my soapbox, No, it's not, because to me, it's
Speaker 1: just so weird that CJ. Stroud is bawling and Bryce
Speaker 1: Young is so weird and the worst part and why
Speaker 1: I feel for Frank Reich. And it's pretty widely known
Speaker 1: that Reich and Josh McCown one of the sharpest quarterback
Speaker 1: minds in the business that we have. Josh McCown, they
Speaker 1: wanted CJ. Stroud. There's a clip going around of McCown
Speaker 1: saying to Straub, We'll find a court in Charlotte when
Speaker 1: you get here. Didn't happen that way, as Dave Tepper,
Speaker 1: the owner, steps in and essentially turns the card in
Speaker 1: on draft night, in the way that billy bunch of
Speaker 1: numbers on Panthers Twitter might do. Might as well have
Speaker 1: those TikTok analysts make your pick at that point. Arm
Speaker 1: strength good forty times. Hey, send it in. That's good
Speaker 1: quarterback play. All right, I'm done. Can you tell I'm
Speaker 1: salty on that topic? Rookie quarterback struggling in an offense
Speaker 1: that has seen a lot of turnover. They traded Dj
Speaker 1: Moore to go get Bryce Young, and they've missed him.
Speaker 1: In the wide receiver room as well. Adam Fielin is
Speaker 1: their current number one receiver and as far as proven players,
Speaker 1: that's about it at the wide receiver position. They have
Speaker 1: some promising young guys on the perimeter, but add the
Speaker 1: fact in that they haven't developed yet, and Felan has
Speaker 1: taking a step back in terms of his speed and
Speaker 1: explosiveness and doesn't really constitute a huge threat anymore. But
Speaker 1: you can just see on tape them mcnory or ironing
Speaker 1: out some of the challenges that come with growing and
Speaker 1: learning together as a young offense, and the early hits
Speaker 1: of their last three draft classes have had issues staying
Speaker 1: on the field. It's another reason why you wind up
Speaker 1: with this win loss record they have, And that's kind
Speaker 1: of the recipe of an zero to five team, right,
Speaker 1: like a building team who sees some bad luck wipe
Speaker 1: out some of their most promising stars. Their best draft
Speaker 1: pick of the last three years was j. C. Horn,
Speaker 1: but he's had a bunch of bad injury luck. Same
Speaker 1: with offensive tackle Brady Christensen. That same class produced Terrence Marshall,
Speaker 1: Tommy Tremble, Chuba Hubbard. Last year they get Iikei Kwanu,
Speaker 1: who had a rough first year. He's been better in
Speaker 1: year two, but still hasn't taken that massive jump. Matt
Speaker 1: Carrall was their next pick in that draft, and he's
Speaker 1: not even there anymore. Then. The production from the rest
Speaker 1: of the class has been, for lack of a better word,
Speaker 1: wanting this year young Mingo, DJ Johnson, Chandler Zavala, and
Speaker 1: Jammie Robinson. Defensively, they're working in a new system. It's
Speaker 1: driven by four really nice pieces and Brian Burns, who's
Speaker 1: up for a new contract next March, Von Bell, Frankie
Speaker 1: Luvu and Derek Brown. That gives them the makings of
Speaker 1: a really nice defensive corps. They're still in the process
Speaker 1: of getting up to speed. A new defensive coordinator, a
Speaker 1: zero Everro's system, a guy that was a candidate for
Speaker 1: the Dolphins down here in the DC role that eventually
Speaker 1: was taken by Vic Fangio. So that's the Panthers. They're
Speaker 1: currently zero to five. They've been one of the roughest
Speaker 1: teams to watch on tape. Maybe they bounce back here
Speaker 1: a little bit on Sunday, Maybe they don't. Here are
Speaker 1: the key storylines I'm tracking heading into that game on Sunday,
Speaker 1: and it's all for the home side, like these preview games.
Speaker 1: Like don't get me wrong, I love that we have
Speaker 1: them now that we're a really damn good football team,
Speaker 1: But you know, these are games you had to used
Speaker 1: to think about certain advantages, you know, West Coast team
Speaker 1: coming east, or the heat in South Florida, like that
Speaker 1: stuff just doesn't really matter to me anymore because I
Speaker 1: expected a certain standard here, and one of those is
Speaker 1: the first five and one start in twenty one years.
Speaker 1: You might recall back in twenty or two thousand and
Speaker 1: three that they had a chance to go five and one,
Speaker 1: didn't make it happen because of an overtime loss. But
Speaker 1: with a win, you maintain your position atop the division.
Speaker 1: You maintain the tie or potentially overtake the Chiefs. Who
Speaker 1: don't they are gonna lose tomorrow night on TNF. But
Speaker 1: you never know, do you guys going back to that
Speaker 1: three season, do you remember that sixth game? Boy? Do I?
Speaker 1: You know those weird memories you have that just stick
Speaker 1: forever for no apparent reason, Like it's not substantial, it's
Speaker 1: not significant. I'll never forget. My brother brought me over
Speaker 1: to his girlfriend's house one day after high school before
Speaker 1: I could drive. He was a senior, I was a freshman,
Speaker 1: and I remember watching part in the Interruption the day
Speaker 1: after we lost in overtime to the Patriots on that
Speaker 1: long Troy Brown touchdown, And for whatever reason, I remember
Speaker 1: sitting in that room watching that show when probably what
Speaker 1: was going on in the other room I didn't wasn't
Speaker 1: privy to the time, but now probably am a little
Speaker 1: more privvy too. But Cornheiser and Will Bond were doing
Speaker 1: an entire segment on why olindol Mario had missed two
Speaker 1: kicks off the dirt despite that being his home field.
Speaker 1: I'll never forget that, and I hate that game. That
Speaker 1: was the last time the Dolphins had a chance to
Speaker 1: go or yeah, they think that was the last time
Speaker 1: I had a chance to go five to one. Didn't
Speaker 1: do it. They did do it twenty one years ago, though,
Speaker 1: back in two thousand and two. Next storyline, Bama v Bama.
Speaker 1: There are four Bama quarterbacks in the National Football League
Speaker 1: right now. Two was one of them, and he's gonna
Speaker 1: face all three of the others in the next three
Speaker 1: consecutive games. He's already one to zero, beating Mac Jones
Speaker 1: back in week two. Now he gets the latest highsman
Speaker 1: winner there at Alabama, and of course he'll see Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts next week, and then Mac Jones again in week
Speaker 1: number eight. Two trends that play into our defensive splits
Speaker 1: here is in my next storyline, we struggled in two
Speaker 1: games defensively. Those games were quarterbacked by top ten players
Speaker 1: at their position in Herbert and in Josh Allen, and
Speaker 1: those games were on the road. We allow seventeen points
Speaker 1: seven points per game in the other three games, two
Speaker 1: of those at home won against a broken Patriots offense,
Speaker 1: and I think that's super impressive considering that those two
Speaker 1: games were multiple score leads in the third quarter. The Panthers,
Speaker 1: our next storyline here, are in search of win number one.
Speaker 1: Just to be privy of some tom foolery, playoffs are
Speaker 1: probably out the window. Teams like this tend to have
Speaker 1: nothing to lose. They tend to empty the playbook a
Speaker 1: little bit. I think back to that twenty twenty one
Speaker 1: game versus the Jets when they were down here, and
Speaker 1: I want to say they went up to seventeen to
Speaker 1: ten at one point in that game, despite being an
Speaker 1: awful football team that year, and they were throwing double passes,
Speaker 1: they were going for on fourth and medium, and Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson was doing Zach Wilson stuff, but they were still
Speaker 1: like pushing the ball somehow just be weary of a
Speaker 1: team with nothing to lose, and then finally here my
Speaker 1: last storyline staying on pace offensively. This gets into the
Speaker 1: privilege as a Dolphins fan right now, and Seth always
Speaker 1: makes fun of me for this on the in the
Speaker 1: press box, when we're watching games at the radio station,
Speaker 1: we're doing radio, whatever we're doing. He always gets on
Speaker 1: me about this because I have a particular, you know,
Speaker 1: certain statistical interests that I think can kind of back
Speaker 1: some of the things that I have claimed are going
Speaker 1: to happen. And some of those things are like, hey,
Speaker 1: to go throw another touchdown pass here and boost your
Speaker 1: passer rating, Like I wouldn't mind seeing that over a
Speaker 1: two yard rushing touchdown sometimes. And when it comes to
Speaker 1: the Dolphins all time pacing offense, I think it's worth
Speaker 1: tracking to a pacing for over five thousand passing yards.
Speaker 1: I want to see that Tyreek pacing for close to
Speaker 1: two thousand receiving yards. I want to see that. Can
Speaker 1: we sustain a three hundred and fifty yards passing per
Speaker 1: game mark one hundred plus for Tyreek five hundred on
Speaker 1: total offense? Can we say he is the number one
Speaker 1: rushing offense in the NFL and passing offense. I want
Speaker 1: all those things to happen. So I want a five
Speaker 1: hundred yard day, and these are the kind of teams
Speaker 1: you can get those again, So those are a few
Speaker 1: things I'm keying on. Let's go ahead and take our
Speaker 1: first break right there and come back on the other side,
Speaker 1: and we will break down this matchup in terms of
Speaker 1: offense and defense and how the Panthers line up on
Speaker 1: both sides of the football. There. That's all next Draft
Speaker 1: Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by
Speaker 1: Auto Nation. Can you guys sense a different sound today.
Speaker 1: I'm using a new microphone and I hope it works out.
Speaker 1: I'm very excited about the quality of the sound. Just
Speaker 1: let me know a few noticed the difference. Let's go
Speaker 1: ahead and get into the Dolphins offense versus the Panthers
Speaker 1: defense here, and you guys know the matchups by now.
Speaker 1: The quarterback to a tongue by Lowa. The safeties he
Speaker 1: will face Von Bell plays one hundred percent of their
Speaker 1: snaps and Jeremy Chinn plays just fifty five percent. That
Speaker 1: was interesting to me. He kind of is a essentially
Speaker 1: nickel defender at this point in a defense that I
Speaker 1: think should feature him some more. He's a freak athlete.
Speaker 1: He can do multiple things going front and backwards inside
Speaker 1: the side. Just think you should see more of Jeremy
Speaker 1: Chin and then Sam Franklin, a third safety, also plays
Speaker 1: fifty percent plus of the snaps, So they run a
Speaker 1: lot of that big nickel package with three safeties and
Speaker 1: just two corners. Perhaps one of the reasons you do
Speaker 1: that is because they don't They're down their top corner
Speaker 1: right now. JC Horn's not playing, so CJ. Henderson is
Speaker 1: their top perimeter guy. He plays seventy two percent of
Speaker 1: the snaps. Actually, Dante Jackson plays more, sorry, seventy five
Speaker 1: percent for Dante Jackson, seventy two for CJ. Henderson, and
Speaker 1: then Troy Hills their primary inside corner at forty eight
Speaker 1: percent of the workload. But most of Jeremy Chin's snaps
Speaker 1: come in the slot as well, so interesting matchups there.
Speaker 1: In terms of athletic ability, all these guys can go
Speaker 1: a little bit. We'll talk more about that here in
Speaker 1: just one second, and then as far as their front goes,
Speaker 1: that's where I think they're probably best in this defense.
Speaker 1: Derek Brown is an absolute load and he plays eighty
Speaker 1: seven percent of the snaps on the interior. That's impressive.
Speaker 1: Shy Tuttle plays sixty two percent. He's a very good
Speaker 1: player as well. Keep an eye on those two guys.
Speaker 1: And then Deshaun Williams plays fifty two percent on the interior.
Speaker 1: Off the edge another place where they feature a like
Speaker 1: all pro type of talent in Brian Burns. Man. He
Speaker 1: is good, he is bendy, he is twitchy, he's explosive.
Speaker 1: He had a forced fumble in the game down here
Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty one when he went up against
Speaker 1: Jesse Davis. Luckily that won't happen again. But keep an
Speaker 1: eye on Brian Burns and Derek Brown and then Von
Speaker 1: Bell and Frankie Luvu kind of my key guys. Keep
Speaker 1: an eye on. But back to the edge, Yettier Gross
Speaker 1: Mottos is a length like Brian Flores front edge. You
Speaker 1: might compare to like Emmanuel Ogba, but he has nowhere
Speaker 1: near the juice of Ogba. He plays fifty percent of
Speaker 1: the snaps, and then Justin Houston played forty five percent
Speaker 1: of the snaps off the edge. It's it's to me,
Speaker 1: it's block. Brian burns and you'll be good. And the
Speaker 1: Dolphins have done such a good job of printing edge
Speaker 1: rushers from wrecking games so far this season, and then
Speaker 1: running backs versus linebackers were down to know Moster and Aukmed.
Speaker 1: We'll see if Jeff Wilson gets activated, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: if you didn't hear the news already, devon Acham on
Speaker 1: the injurieserve officially, and Jeff Wilson has had his twenty
Speaker 1: one day window activated or he's been opened that window,
Speaker 1: and they can activate him at some point in the
Speaker 1: next twenty one days. But Frankie Luvu eighty eight percent
Speaker 1: of the snaps go Koogs. He is a fantastic linebacker
Speaker 1: formerly of the New York Jets, and then a familiar
Speaker 1: face Kammu Guruje Hill plays forty seven percent of the
Speaker 1: snaps in that defense. Again operate primarily out of big
Speaker 1: nickel packages. In fact, nickel is their sixty four percent
Speaker 1: preferred defensive package, but they do run a lot of bass.
Speaker 1: There's not a lot of sub package beyond that twenty
Speaker 1: four percent base in their three to four, which gets
Speaker 1: them Derek Brown on an edge gets Shy Tunnel over
Speaker 1: the nose tackle and then they operate with Brian Burns
Speaker 1: primarily as their top rusher off the edge and Frankie
Speaker 1: Luvu holding down that biddle linebacker spot. They do operate
Speaker 1: from dime defense five percent of the time. They play
Speaker 1: some zero coverage ten percent. I can't imagine they'll do
Speaker 1: that in this game. You'd be crazy to do that
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins offense. But they're in two high fifty
Speaker 1: eight percent of the time and single high thirty seven
Speaker 1: percent of the time, which is actually fifth most of
Speaker 1: the National Football League. I think we'll see a lot
Speaker 1: less of that this week as they again good try it,
Speaker 1: Try and play single high against Miami and see what happens.
Speaker 1: That's what happens when the Giants kind of went single
Speaker 1: high or they busted, but they turned into what turned
Speaker 1: out to be a single high look on that sixty
Speaker 1: nine yard touchdown pass against Tyreek. We also had the
Speaker 1: thirty five yard touchdown pass to Tyreek and single high
Speaker 1: against the Chargers. And we also had the I don't
Speaker 1: remember how the yards it was forty seven yard completion
Speaker 1: to set up a game winner there against the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Again against single high with a man free coverage with
Speaker 1: press coverage underneath. Don't do that. You can, I hope
Speaker 1: you do, but I wouldn't do it. So they're almost
Speaker 1: almost exclusively based on first down, almost exclusively nickel on
Speaker 1: second down, So you can kind of manipulate how you
Speaker 1: want to attack them with. You know, I love that
Speaker 1: fast twenty one personnel. Or they get sometimes three backs
Speaker 1: out there and go to work on teams stuck in
Speaker 1: their base package with all the speed we have it
Speaker 1: running back might be different now without a chan, But
Speaker 1: then they influx a heavy use of dime on third down,
Speaker 1: regardless of the down and distance, So they play as
Speaker 1: many light boxes as anybody else does. You know, we're
Speaker 1: kind of in that category as well. But go back
Speaker 1: to the Vikings tape and they ran six man or
Speaker 1: fewer boxes eighty percent of their snaps. And that's with Jefferson,
Speaker 1: Addison and Osborne as the top three receivers. I like
Speaker 1: Miami's a lot more, although Jefferson and Tyreek is probably
Speaker 1: a take your pick option, but Addison Waddle that's where
Speaker 1: the big standout is. And then obviously you know the
Speaker 1: things that Barrios and Cedric and Craikkraft and those guys
Speaker 1: can all do. Although crak Craft's now here right now.
Speaker 1: You get what I'm saying, but you never know. I'm
Speaker 1: guessing they fear our deep passing game a little bit more.
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe not. If again, if not try it, try me.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it either way. Here are there season
Speaker 1: numbers in those departments. So five man boxes is like
Speaker 1: unheard of, and that's a lot of third down. So
Speaker 1: that's thirteen percent, But six man boxes is their preferred
Speaker 1: option thirty seven percent. Rahiem, you're up, big dog like,
Speaker 1: if they're gonna play that, you have to run the football.
Speaker 1: Seven man box is not light, but it's not heavy
Speaker 1: thirty one percent, and then eight man boxes just twelve
Speaker 1: percent of the time. So another game of deep balls
Speaker 1: and running game. That was kind of my forecast last
Speaker 1: week and that worked out pretty good. Will it work
Speaker 1: out again here? I tend to think so, because I
Speaker 1: don't think anybody can stop this offense. And they've also
Speaker 1: struggled tackling, I think partially because they are banged up
Speaker 1: on the back end. Their best cover corner is down
Speaker 1: Hutch JC Horn, and so is their best linebacker, Shaq Thompson.
Speaker 1: That's a tough loss for those guys for posterity. They're
Speaker 1: also without one of their better run defenders and Henry Anderson,
Speaker 1: and they're also down three offensive linemen, two starters and
Speaker 1: Brady Christiansen and Austin Corbett, and then one of the
Speaker 1: replacements for the starter at left guard and Chandler Zavalla.
Speaker 1: So down to left guard number three on this offense.
Speaker 1: That's in the next segment though, But back to the
Speaker 1: miss tackles forty three are the third most behind the
Speaker 1: Giants and Texans. And then last thing here structurally zero
Speaker 1: everro He's been in that Fangio tree and subscribe to
Speaker 1: lots of the same principle. So light boxes, some fronts
Speaker 1: that leave those interior gaps open, like No zero or
Speaker 1: one technique, so they can combat some of our speed
Speaker 1: off the edges, but it does leave them lighter in
Speaker 1: the inside, and without Shaq Thompson, they've struggled to fit
Speaker 1: those inside runs, so they're averaging Teams are averaging four
Speaker 1: point nine yards per rush against them, that's fifth most
Speaker 1: in football, and the seven hundred and four yards allowed
Speaker 1: total is the seventh most in football. Some of the
Speaker 1: specific matchup I'm looking for here, Dante Jackson is feisty
Speaker 1: as hell. Number twenty six. Just keep an eye though,
Speaker 1: if he goes out to Tyreek Hill, because he never
Speaker 1: saw a gamble. He didn't want to take those double
Speaker 1: moves that Tyreek can hit, or just those quick releases
Speaker 1: at the last scrimmage. Like if he gets feisty and
Speaker 1: wants to come up and press and try a jam
Speaker 1: and you strike out, usually that means it's a home
Speaker 1: run on the back end to use a couple of
Speaker 1: baseball terms there. But he's Tyreek is just so adept
Speaker 1: at finding those little things in guys games and exploiting them.
Speaker 1: So I expect whether it happens early or he comes
Speaker 1: back middle of the game and says, hey too, I
Speaker 1: got this move on twenty six. When he's out there,
Speaker 1: check it out and keep an eye for a game
Speaker 1: changing play when ten is across from twenty six. Jackson
Speaker 1: didn't play last week. He was a game time decision,
Speaker 1: so I assume he is back in the fold there,
Speaker 1: but Deshaun Jamison replaced him. I mean, yeah, if it's
Speaker 1: not good with the starter, I can't imagine it's much
Speaker 1: better with the backup going against a guy like Tyreek Hill,
Speaker 1: and we have to have an answer for two guys
Speaker 1: in this defense. I mentioned it already, Brian Burns and
Speaker 1: Derek Brown. I'd add Von Belt to that as well.
Speaker 1: Those are the playmakers as well as Frankie Luvu. But
Speaker 1: Burns is one of the best pass rushers in the
Speaker 1: busines has just insane bend and burst and strength, one
Speaker 1: of the best finishers in terms of finishing off his sacks.
Speaker 1: Brown is power, power, power, and I thought we did
Speaker 1: a pretty good job on Dexter Lawrence last weekend. He
Speaker 1: did have that bowl rush that forced an interception, So
Speaker 1: not a clean job across the board. And Brown is
Speaker 1: akin to him in the way that he can kind
Speaker 1: of push the pocket and get your quarterback off that
Speaker 1: spot in that interior pressure. It's the worst place to
Speaker 1: have pressure in the National Football League. So just keeping
Speaker 1: one on that matchup. Connor Williams is one of the
Speaker 1: best centers in the National Football League, and I think
Speaker 1: we've all grown to appreciate that now. Finally, despite what
Speaker 1: you know last year's PFF grades when I said, or
Speaker 1: whatever the case may be, or a couple of bad
Speaker 1: snaps in training camp, he's one of the best snarors
Speaker 1: in football. But if there's one thing that can get him,
Speaker 1: it's power, and Derek Brown has that power. The way
Speaker 1: Miami runs the ball off the perimeter really quells pass rushes.
Speaker 1: So I just wondered if you see more of that
Speaker 1: and continue to, you know, keep these top edge rushers
Speaker 1: and contained based upon the system. And then I mentioned
Speaker 1: Frankie Luvu again, go Kugs, He's a playmaker man. He
Speaker 1: and Von Bell are two guys that I just think
Speaker 1: Tu needs to have eyes on every single snap. They
Speaker 1: like to change the picture post nap, kind of like
Speaker 1: we do done here. Let's be a fun chess match
Speaker 1: to watch as he goes up against those guys, and
Speaker 1: then obviously Frankieluvu in the Running Game versus Raheem Moster
Speaker 1: Raheem has had so many instances of one on one
Speaker 1: at the point of attack and those players are always
Speaker 1: super fun to watch. I think we're gonna see a
Speaker 1: script like this in this game. A ton of run
Speaker 1: game success, a lot of quick hitters against soft coverage,
Speaker 1: and then some intermediate timing throws that we typically hit.
Speaker 1: And then I think that turns it into night night
Speaker 1: time where they get a little bit frustrated. They kind
Speaker 1: of creep up a little bit more tired cornerbacks in
Speaker 1: this hot, hot heat, who are you know, aren't particularly
Speaker 1: fast on the perimeter. I always love looking at the
Speaker 1: speed athletic metrics of the opposing defense and CJ. Henderson
Speaker 1: for four flat guy, but he builds to that speed
Speaker 1: seventyeth percent tile ten split, so you can kind of
Speaker 1: get him in the long game. And then Dante Jackson
Speaker 1: is similar. Four to three to two guy. That's great,
Speaker 1: but seventy fifth percent tile in the ten split. I
Speaker 1: think you take that short stuffy, then you start pressing
Speaker 1: their toes to kind of get them to squat, and
Speaker 1: then you break it off the top of the route,
Speaker 1: whether it's comebacks or a takeoff move, sudden movement at
Speaker 1: the top of the route, a secondary move. We'll get
Speaker 1: these guys taking the cheese and that's where you can
Speaker 1: hit your big explosive passing plays. They're allowing twenty eight
Speaker 1: point eight points per game. They've allowed seventeen touchdowns. Those
Speaker 1: are both the fourth most. A bad formula for a
Speaker 1: Dolphins offense that is cruising right now. They play a
Speaker 1: lot of soft and off, keep the roof on the
Speaker 1: house and hold opposing offenses to the seventh least YAK
Speaker 1: with the combination of just seven point four average yards
Speaker 1: depth of target. So they do a good job of
Speaker 1: limiting big plays and tackling well, not in the tackling numbers,
Speaker 1: but as far as YAT goes, they prevent it from
Speaker 1: being too bad. You might have to take the longer
Speaker 1: route here, you know, more plays to get your points
Speaker 1: rather than the quick explosive drives, especially without eight chan
Speaker 1: back there. But who knows we do such a good
Speaker 1: job of taking teams out of their comfort zone. I
Speaker 1: would never say I expect the opposing defense to dictate
Speaker 1: any terms here. For the Miami Dolphins, they blitz twenty
Speaker 1: one percent of the time, again similar to our rates,
Speaker 1: because again the defensive structure here is similar. We are
Speaker 1: at twenty two point seven percent. They do get pressure
Speaker 1: on twenty percent, and again that's a lot of Brian
Speaker 1: Burns doing what he does best. I always like our
Speaker 1: interior three that we have going right now because of
Speaker 1: how well connected they are playing inside and Connor Williams
Speaker 1: just has this penchip man for going over and helping
Speaker 1: either guy at the guard position to find work in
Speaker 1: the pass protection game. So then it comes down to
Speaker 1: finding a way to contain Burns. Would make a lot
Speaker 1: of sense to help him there, but again, we so
Speaker 1: frequently see the scheme create so much indecision for the
Speaker 1: edges and wind up utilizing aggressiveness against them to get
Speaker 1: the overplay. And then you have an answer for that. Gosh,
Speaker 1: it's fun covering a team that is very smart offensively,
Speaker 1: So who the hell knows what coach has cooked up,
Speaker 1: But I trust him to do whatever it is he's
Speaker 1: gonna do. I mean, why would you not. So that's
Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense versus the Panthers defense. Let's go ahead
Speaker 1: and take a break here and come back on the
Speaker 1: other side and do Panthers offense first, Miami defense. That's
Speaker 1: next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to
Speaker 1: you by Auto Nation. Sunday Sunday Sunday Dolphins hosts the
Speaker 1: Panther and Bryce Young comes to town for his first
Speaker 1: visit to hard Rock Stadium, and we take a look
Speaker 1: at the matchups here, Young against a trio of safeties
Speaker 1: and Holland Elliott and Jones. I've loved the way Elliott
Speaker 1: has kind of molded into the lineup here after that
Speaker 1: first game thought we missed him pretty badly against the
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills in Week four. And the receivers that they'll
Speaker 1: throw against Xavier Howard and Cater Kohu and Eli Apple
Speaker 1: and Justin Bethel and maybe Camp Smith, who the hell knows.
Speaker 1: They are. DJ Chark at sixty nine percent of the workload,
Speaker 1: but that's because he's missed some time. So when he's healthy,
Speaker 1: he's their go to guy. Jonathan Mingo is a rookie
Speaker 1: who's played sixty percent of the snaps, and then Terris
Speaker 1: Marshall has played fifty one off the perimeter, but you
Speaker 1: go inside the slot. Adam Thielen has played ninety one
Speaker 1: percent of the total snaps, but he is a seventy
Speaker 1: seven percent slot guy. Hayden Hurst, a tight end who
Speaker 1: I love a whole bunch, plays fifty six percent of
Speaker 1: the snaps, and then Tommy Tremble plays twenty five percent
Speaker 1: of the reps. That's their skill group. We'll talk about
Speaker 1: them here more in just a moment. And then on
Speaker 1: the interior, like I said, they're down to left guard three.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be Cad Mays at that spot. Otherwise,
Speaker 1: the right guards a former college tackle in throck Morton
Speaker 1: is his last name, and then Bradley Boseman's the center.
Speaker 1: He's a good player, but the guard position has been
Speaker 1: shaky for them, as has the tackles in Aiki Kwanu
Speaker 1: and Taylor Moten, who go up against potentially Jalan Phillips,
Speaker 1: Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van gingkld Manuel Ogba, and then the
Speaker 1: running backs. Miles Sanders gets fifty four percent of the
Speaker 1: workload versus Cuba Hubbard's forty one percent of the workload.
Speaker 1: And if you're looking for variety, and we'll talk this
Speaker 1: is a theme here in this part of the podcast,
Speaker 1: there's just not much there. They run eleven personnel eighty
Speaker 1: seven percent of the time, they run twelve personnel nine
Speaker 1: percent of the time, and that gives you what five
Speaker 1: percent left. The next highest grouping is oh one personal
Speaker 1: let's say four wide receivers, one tight end set, basically
Speaker 1: your spread offense. That's two and a half percent. They've
Speaker 1: been trying to find the right mix of options for Bryce,
Speaker 1: and you know, Frank Reich recently said that he regretted
Speaker 1: not having Terris Marshall a bigger part of their game plans.
Speaker 1: So I think the natural assumption there is that we
Speaker 1: get to see more of him now. Their wide receiver
Speaker 1: corps is the opposite of ours. It's big bodies who
Speaker 1: try to win contested jump balls. At their best, Theelen
Speaker 1: has been the go to guy, and you know it's
Speaker 1: pretty obvious they pump the ball to him. He operates
Speaker 1: primarily out of the slot. But the root of their
Speaker 1: issues to me has been threefold from what I can
Speaker 1: see on tape. Number one, Rookie quarterbacks typically don't see
Speaker 1: things as quick as a veteran, and that looks to
Speaker 1: me to be the case on offense. I think you
Speaker 1: can see it in their pre snap alignment issues. They
Speaker 1: are the most penalized team in the National Football League
Speaker 1: forty one total flags. They have the most pre snap
Speaker 1: infractions with twenty three. When I watch them on tape
Speaker 1: every week, you see some frustrating body language out there
Speaker 1: and typically form number nineteen. First, they run a ton
Speaker 1: of screens. Ask yourself, why why would Denver do that?
Speaker 1: Travis it's Carolina, but Brian Windhorse Meam lives on why
Speaker 1: would they do that? Remember when Adam Gase gave up
Speaker 1: on Ryan Tannehill back in twenty eighteen, in that game
Speaker 1: against the Colts and refuse to let him put the
Speaker 1: ball in the air with a lead on like third
Speaker 1: and six plus. You kind of get some of that here.
Speaker 1: I watched three games and on multiple occasions Bryce Young
Speaker 1: forgets the play There was a screen pass against Minnesota
Speaker 1: where he takes a five step drop and then remembered
Speaker 1: mid snap it was a screen. Then he like threw
Speaker 1: it and put his head down like he was frustrated
Speaker 1: at himself and just accepted that he's gonna get an
Speaker 1: ineligible man downfield flag because you can't do that in
Speaker 1: the screen game. It just doesn't have the full compliment
Speaker 1: of the offense yet, Like they are not into the
Speaker 1: back pages the way that we are. There's no real checks,
Speaker 1: so what you see is kind of what you get.
Speaker 1: I don't believe there's a vast knowledge of the playbook
Speaker 1: in terms of, you know, wrinkles and adjustments and things.
Speaker 1: You can kind of understand why the structure of the
Speaker 1: offense is the way that it is. You can just
Speaker 1: see it by the number of times they go directly
Speaker 1: into a bad look like we're out number counted here
Speaker 1: to the strength, but we still run the ball into it.
Speaker 1: Doesn't make much sense. I'm not sure if he doesn't
Speaker 1: have the autonomy or he's just not there yet. I
Speaker 1: tend to lean towards the ladder, but either way, the
Speaker 1: result is a very very staggedant offense. You are interested,
Speaker 1: go watch the Vikings game and how Brian Flores cooked
Speaker 1: up a plan against these guys. Simulated pressures can create
Speaker 1: splash plays for your defense, and I think we get
Speaker 1: some that this weekend, which means lots of blitzes, lots
Speaker 1: of guys in lads scrimmage. Flores, you know, zero blitzes
Speaker 1: really confused him. They brought seven against six to get
Speaker 1: a scoop and score in that game where they just
Speaker 1: did not account for the extra rusher. And when you're
Speaker 1: hot like that and you have a free runner because
Speaker 1: there's more guys than you can block that are coming,
Speaker 1: you have to throw the ball. And he doesn't always
Speaker 1: do that. So, like, you know, I just don't think
Speaker 1: he has a feel for what he's looking at in
Speaker 1: terms of potential, you know, confusion from what the defensive
Speaker 1: coordinator wants to do to confuse him. His pocket management
Speaker 1: at best has been chaotic, I would say, bluntly, probably
Speaker 1: just terrible, So I think that Fangio is going to
Speaker 1: have a chance to show him something simple rotate to complex,
Speaker 1: and that's where I get to some predictions here. I
Speaker 1: think we're going to get multiple interceptions here, make life
Speaker 1: miserable on Bryce Young. I expect us to double our
Speaker 1: pit count in this game, go from two to four,
Speaker 1: if not more. That rhymes. That's kind of my bold
Speaker 1: prediction here. I think we'll change the picture post snap.
Speaker 1: Young will predeterminedly make throws that we have guys waiting on.
Speaker 1: And if I'll get hyper specific here, one of two
Speaker 1: things is gonna happen in this game. Cater will get
Speaker 1: his first pick of the year in coverage against Adam
Speaker 1: thieland Fland and Javon Holland or Javon Holland will jump one,
Speaker 1: maybe both, but at least one of those is gonna happen.
Speaker 1: They are just really struggling right now in past pro
Speaker 1: as well, especially on the interior, and doesn't help that
Speaker 1: the quarterback bells on good pockets and tries to create
Speaker 1: like he did in college. You just can't do that.
Speaker 1: And I understand why he's not trusting of the pocket
Speaker 1: because it hasn't been there hasn't been a lot of
Speaker 1: pocket integrity for him to work with. Injuries play a
Speaker 1: huge role in that. Again, down two starters and the
Speaker 1: interior swing guys also down. They were just struggling bad
Speaker 1: at the left guard position. And I actually noticed that
Speaker 1: the guy that was out there, Zavala, was struggling with
Speaker 1: the same things that made Zach Steeler so effective, like
Speaker 1: push pull, grip strength, power moves, and arm over swim moves.
Speaker 1: But we'll see it can't be any better, right, So
Speaker 1: the pressure numbers allowed for these guys at Kwan who
Speaker 1: has twelve, Zavala, the left guard was at tw but
Speaker 1: he's going to be out for Caid Mays who has
Speaker 1: four and sixty five pass blocking snaps, Boseman ten, throck
Speaker 1: Morton six, and then Taylor Moten eighteen off the right side.
Speaker 1: That's a high pressure number yielded there. There just hasn't
Speaker 1: been a lot of connectivity on that offensive line. In general.
Speaker 1: The pass pro doesn't look to me like it's currently
Speaker 1: operating as a singular unit. You know, Moten has really
Speaker 1: struggled with speed, and I'm curious to see, you know,
Speaker 1: either potential matchup there, whether it's Jalen Phillips back into
Speaker 1: the fold or if it's a heavy dose of Andrew
Speaker 1: van Ginkel off that side once again, because the tapes
Speaker 1: that I watch, the things that give him the most
Speaker 1: issues are speed, but also speed to power, and that's
Speaker 1: like Phillips's best move. So it's something to keep an
Speaker 1: eye on there if we go, you know, matchup wise,
Speaker 1: if JP goes fifteen versus their right tackle, could be
Speaker 1: a fun potential takeaway option there for Miami with a
Speaker 1: good strip sack of something. And then third, I mentioned
Speaker 1: it earlier, they just struggle to identify a hierarchy among
Speaker 1: the weapons because the separations. It's like twenty twenty one Dolphins. Man,
Speaker 1: it's been bad. Twenty twenty Dolphins. Let's not put Waddle
Speaker 1: in there. All five of their targets are under three
Speaker 1: yards average separation. In order of top separation, it goes Marshall,
Speaker 1: then Hurts Hurst, sorry, then thelan then Chark and then
Speaker 1: Mingo like charged. That low surprises me. So perhaps we
Speaker 1: can generate some tight window throws and get some hands
Speaker 1: on footballs. Just want two picks this year. Would love
Speaker 1: to see that change. And again, Thielan's the engine of
Speaker 1: the offense that it runs through. So I'm looking for
Speaker 1: a big game for Cater Kohub because I like his
Speaker 1: matchup in that spot. In the slot, the most frequent
Speaker 1: thing they do successfully is get in breaking routes over
Speaker 1: the ball from outside leverage corners. I like how much
Speaker 1: we saw Holland play the hook zone last week, that
Speaker 1: kind of five to eight yards over the football. Maybe
Speaker 1: he can intersect on some of those throws again, jump
Speaker 1: out and take it back for six. Maybe. I'm very
Speaker 1: curious to see how they match up. But like I said,
Speaker 1: thelan's the go to guy. I want to see Cater
Speaker 1: inside and then on the outside. Like all these guys
Speaker 1: are big, physical players, which are the players that X
Speaker 1: matches up the best with, Like Darren Waller. Right, X
Speaker 1: was very good against Daron Waller in that Giants game.
Speaker 1: I expect X to have a big game here as well.
Speaker 1: So there you go. That's the defensive breakdown. What's at
Speaker 1: stake in this game. It's a copy and paste from
Speaker 1: last week. NFC opponents have these smallest impact in terms
Speaker 1: of tie breaking scenarios for playoff implications, but still each
Speaker 1: win and loss counts the exact same. Right by the
Speaker 1: column standards not by the tie breakers, but wins and
Speaker 1: losses all the same. You're at home against a struggling
Speaker 1: football team with a big primetime game next week. I
Speaker 1: think it's a good test for truly adhering to the
Speaker 1: task at hand, the day at hand. Don't look ahead.
Speaker 1: A win gives you five and six starts. That's impressive.
Speaker 1: It keeps you on top of the division, it keeps
Speaker 1: you at pace at worst with Kansas City at top
Speaker 1: of the conference, and it gives you a chance if
Speaker 1: you get If you get it, you go on the
Speaker 1: road next week because like you can. You know, like
Speaker 1: in college football, for instance, they always build up a
Speaker 1: big matchup, like a big SEC matchup, right and then
Speaker 1: someone loses the previous week to a power a group
Speaker 1: of five school. It's like, oh so much for that matchup.
Speaker 1: You're in a position right here to go get your cupcake,
Speaker 1: Go get your win, and then you can really prove
Speaker 1: yourself and change the narrative that has falsely developed around
Speaker 1: you in terms of you're a fraud against big teams.
Speaker 1: They had one good team this year. Well, I digress.
Speaker 1: The Chargers are a good team. I'm not doing that
Speaker 1: argument here. We got blown out by the best team
Speaker 1: we face so far. I get the idea there, but
Speaker 1: to call them frauds and say they can't beat good teams,
Speaker 1: give them a chance to play more good teams, Here's
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to say. And you get a chance
Speaker 1: to set yourself up for that situation with a win
Speaker 1: here in this one. I also enjoy the playoff probability
Speaker 1: leverage charts. Essentially, what are your playoff odds if you
Speaker 1: win or if you lose? A good example of the
Speaker 1: NFC games having the smallest impact is that our playoff
Speaker 1: odds increase by just two percent based on these models
Speaker 1: with that win last week over the Giants, so it'll
Speaker 1: be the same this week. We stand to gain three
Speaker 1: percent from our current eighty two percent playoff odds, but
Speaker 1: a loss in the wrong direction it goes fourteen percent backwards.
Speaker 1: So that's what's at stake. You have more to lose
Speaker 1: than you have to gain here, and that's kind of
Speaker 1: how these games go, right. My three keys to victory
Speaker 1: identify Brian Burns, Derek Brown, and Von Bell in every
Speaker 1: single snaps their game wreckers. Contain them, don't give them
Speaker 1: takeaway or sack opportunities. Make sure you have doubles when
Speaker 1: you need them, when you have deep drops. Make sure
Speaker 1: that von Bell's not, you know, falling off into zones
Speaker 1: that he shouldn't be in. Just key those three guys
Speaker 1: every single snap. Key number two. Keep the Panthers offense guessing.
Speaker 1: Change the picture post snap, and you're gonna have lots
Speaker 1: of success because they don't have answers and wrinkles and
Speaker 1: adaptations to what their original plan is. So keep the
Speaker 1: offense guessing. And then three is take what the defense
Speaker 1: gives you. I think you're gonna get soft and off
Speaker 1: and very conservative defense here. And their structure is kind
Speaker 1: of like ours. Limit big plays, rally and tackle. They
Speaker 1: haven't done that a good job of that, but that's
Speaker 1: the structure of the defense. Try to win in the
Speaker 1: red zone. So take what's there, run the football, stay
Speaker 1: on schedule. And then the areas of concern versus areas
Speaker 1: to exploit. I don't think these are necessary when your
Speaker 1: two touchdown favorites. So we'll return this segment next week
Speaker 1: against the Philadelphia Eagles. My prediction here thirty seven to six.
Speaker 1: I don't think they'll get anything done on offense. I
Speaker 1: think they stand to make us sustain a little bit
Speaker 1: longer drives comparatively, which reduces the potential of forty burger
Speaker 1: by a little bit, But no reason to think we
Speaker 1: cannot execute. I think we'll see some short fields, maybe
Speaker 1: even score a touch on defense, but I have three takeaways,
Speaker 1: a bunch of sacks, an efficient passing attack, and a
Speaker 1: good running game and cruise into the winner circle as
Speaker 1: the game begins to look lopsided and then gets out
Speaker 1: of hand by the early third quarter. I thought my
Speaker 1: forty four to ten last week would have been freaking
Speaker 1: perfect if not for the pick six. That's my time.
Speaker 1: We'll have a Panthers beat writer on the podcast tomorrow.
Speaker 1: I have not yet identified who that is because I
Speaker 1: am sending emails much to no avail. So let me
Speaker 1: know if you know someone who wants to do my
Speaker 1: podcast for the callant of Panthers. Will also have Kyle
Speaker 1: Crabs on Friday, and then Daniel Oyafusi of the Miami
Speaker 1: Here will talk Dolphins defense on the Friday podcast. That's
Speaker 1: gonna be my time. You all please be sure to subscribe, rate,
Speaker 1: review all that fun stuff. Follow on Twitter at Winkfold
Speaker 1: NFL for all the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out
Speaker 1: the Fish Tank podcast with Seth and Juice. Check out
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel for media availabilities and Dolphins Today is
Speaker 1: so much more, and last, but not least, Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: dot Com Until next time. Fins Up got on on Cameron,
Speaker 1: Daddy's come and hol