WEBVTT - Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters? 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:28.124 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.164 --> 0:00:31.524 better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:32.244 --> 0:00:34.564 Today on the show, we're talking about the super Bowl, 0:00:34.604 --> 0:00:40.884 which was a tremendously disappointing result if you don't like 0:00:40.924 --> 0:00:45.244 seeing men crying or the Kansas City Chiefs America's team losing. 0:00:45.524 --> 0:00:47.764 But we'll talk about how that went and our belt. 0:00:48.164 --> 0:00:52.284 Yes, and then we're going to talk about Trump, what's 0:00:52.324 --> 0:00:54.844 been going on in the last few weeks, and kind 0:00:54.844 --> 0:00:57.684 of what the important things are to focus on. Right 0:00:57.804 --> 0:01:02.404 where should we be diverting our attention, what should we 0:01:02.484 --> 0:01:06.484 be not looking at at all, because obviously there's a 0:01:06.484 --> 0:01:09.884 barrage of things that are being plung at a and 0:01:09.924 --> 0:01:12.644 it's very important, as we've said over and over, to focus. 0:01:13.084 --> 0:01:16.164 And then how to find the Holy Grail a nice 0:01:16.244 --> 0:01:17.924 apartment in New York City. 0:01:18.204 --> 0:01:22.484 Yes, good luck with that search tonight. And after that 0:01:22.604 --> 0:01:25.284 we will actually have a special segment for our Pushkin 0:01:25.324 --> 0:01:30.284 Plus subscribers, answering a timeless question from a listener, how 0:01:30.364 --> 0:01:39.524 do you pick a good doctor? All right, Nate, let's 0:01:39.564 --> 0:01:41.044 talk about the super Bowl. 0:01:41.364 --> 0:01:43.604 As one of the few people rooting for the Kansas 0:01:43.604 --> 0:01:49.004 City Chiefs and betting, not necessarily for a plus CV bit, 0:01:49.164 --> 0:01:52.484 but following my heart my partners from Kansas City. I 0:01:52.524 --> 0:01:54.884 thought that game was a fucking nightmare. I have to say, 0:01:55.284 --> 0:01:59.524 I don't know. And to see I'm not anti Tom Brady, 0:01:59.884 --> 0:02:02.564 but to see Tom Brady gloating that he's going to 0:02:02.604 --> 0:02:04.044 keep his goat status for now. 0:02:04.524 --> 0:02:07.484 Patrick, you know I've been in a situation nineteen times 0:02:07.484 --> 0:02:09.884 and Packrick, it was just fucking bunking. It was. 0:02:10.324 --> 0:02:13.444 I rarely am bothered by sports, right, you assume you 0:02:13.484 --> 0:02:15.964 lose half the time, and this like this bug me me, Maria. 0:02:16.644 --> 0:02:19.364 I mean, I like Philly, Philly is against City. Let's 0:02:19.444 --> 0:02:24.164 let's say that. Like I'm usually pro Philly. That region, that. 0:02:24.164 --> 0:02:29.724 Whole Philly, Baltimore, sure, Maryland regions kind of a weird region. 0:02:29.764 --> 0:02:32.724 You know, they have interesting accents, interesting food, right, I 0:02:32.724 --> 0:02:36.284 feel like it's it's I take that region over New England. 0:02:36.484 --> 0:02:40.444 Oh interesting. Well, as a New Englander, I actually happen 0:02:40.484 --> 0:02:46.924 to agree. I'm you know, I'm a Bostonian who's who's 0:02:46.964 --> 0:02:49.924 not a huge Boston fan. So so there you have it. 0:02:50.124 --> 0:02:52.724 But I actually have the same beef with with Philly. 0:02:52.764 --> 0:02:54.884 That I have with Boston, which is that their sports 0:02:54.884 --> 0:02:58.204 fans can be really nasty. I don't like nasty sports fans. 0:02:58.244 --> 0:03:01.444 I like people who like our sports fans, you know, 0:03:01.764 --> 0:03:04.684 and have good spirit, but don't get don't get like 0:03:05.164 --> 0:03:08.564 really mean when they win. And I don't know, Philly's 0:03:08.604 --> 0:03:11.364 not as bad as but Boston. I think we've talked 0:03:11.364 --> 0:03:13.604 about this on the show before. Is awful. Right when 0:03:13.604 --> 0:03:16.844 the Red Sox finally won the World Series and reverse 0:03:16.924 --> 0:03:19.604 the curse, they were setting cars on fire in Harvard Square, 0:03:19.644 --> 0:03:20.684 Like what the actual fund? 0:03:20.764 --> 0:03:23.644 I mean, you're kind of deprived of like sunlight up there, 0:03:23.724 --> 0:03:26.964 stuff much fucking sunlight in Boston in the winter. 0:03:27.164 --> 0:03:29.884 That's very true. That's very true. But there's not much 0:03:29.884 --> 0:03:33.604 sunlight in New York right now either, So so yes, 0:03:34.044 --> 0:03:36.924 I don't like it when sports fans get really nasty. 0:03:37.644 --> 0:03:40.644 But I do like Philly, and I think that this 0:03:40.764 --> 0:03:42.924 is all good. I also don't like gloating, so I'm 0:03:43.004 --> 0:03:44.924 with you that the Tom Brady thing is a little 0:03:44.964 --> 0:03:47.524 bit off putting. Luckily, I did not listen to you. 0:03:47.604 --> 0:03:49.924 I did not put any money on the Chiefs, So 0:03:50.124 --> 0:03:52.524 I'm good, even though you advised me too. 0:03:52.684 --> 0:03:53.244 You know, at least. 0:03:53.244 --> 0:03:56.484 It wasn't a bat where you ever had hope, you know, 0:03:56.524 --> 0:03:58.724 the hope was immediate, I guess of that one interception 0:03:58.764 --> 0:04:00.204 in the first layer. 0:04:01.244 --> 0:04:04.444 Yes, and by the way, dear listeners, I did watch 0:04:04.484 --> 0:04:06.844 the whole thing because first of all, I needed to 0:04:06.884 --> 0:04:08.924 watch from the beginning, because I needed to know that 0:04:09.004 --> 0:04:11.644 I want and our prop bet about crying. 0:04:11.364 --> 0:04:13.964 Which I'm not even sure have we review the video 0:04:14.084 --> 0:04:15.244 on this, I'm not even. 0:04:15.044 --> 0:04:17.204 Sure about this is this is so funny. 0:04:17.244 --> 0:04:19.604 So all of the sports books have called it in 0:04:19.604 --> 0:04:22.604 my favor. And Nate and I had a text exchange 0:04:22.964 --> 0:04:23.604 at the time. 0:04:23.844 --> 0:04:26.364 We had different terms. We had different terms. 0:04:26.684 --> 0:04:27.484 He said a tear. 0:04:27.684 --> 0:04:29.844 I saw tears, not crying, but I. 0:04:29.764 --> 0:04:33.004 Saw tears and eyes and there was even someone wiping 0:04:33.084 --> 0:04:35.684 away a tear, to which Nate wrote, So this is 0:04:35.684 --> 0:04:39.564 our text exchange. I actually sorry, Nate, this is this 0:04:39.644 --> 0:04:43.244 is about to become a public record. So someone one 0:04:43.284 --> 0:04:47.084 of our you know, loyal listeners on Twitter the moment 0:04:47.124 --> 0:04:49.364 this happened, tweeted at us, at both of us, saying 0:04:49.484 --> 0:04:51.764 they just showed a player wiping away a tear during 0:04:51.804 --> 0:04:55.364 the national anthem exclamation point, and I was like, hell, yeah, 0:04:55.964 --> 0:04:57.644 I know they did, because I'm watching. 0:04:57.444 --> 0:04:59.364 If a tear falls in the forest and no one 0:04:59.484 --> 0:05:01.764 is there to see it, it is the man crying 0:05:01.964 --> 0:05:02.844 and so and so. 0:05:03.124 --> 0:05:05.804 I sent this to Night and Nate said, saw tears 0:05:05.844 --> 0:05:10.564 being wiped but maybe not actual tears. And I said, dude, no, 0:05:10.964 --> 0:05:14.564 And I still stand by mind, dude, no, resolute. 0:05:14.604 --> 0:05:16.324 We're gonna have to go to a video. I mean, 0:05:16.324 --> 0:05:17.084 this is a small bit. 0:05:17.164 --> 0:05:19.444 I'm not gonna you know, I mean, I'm the chiefs 0:05:19.484 --> 0:05:21.844 thing already as we devastated, right, but like you know, 0:05:21.924 --> 0:05:23.284 I don't know about that. 0:05:23.564 --> 0:05:24.964 You have to you have to embrace it. 0:05:25.004 --> 0:05:27.604 I went. We negotiated the term was carefully. 0:05:27.724 --> 0:05:29.484 We did, but there was a tier and it was 0:05:29.524 --> 0:05:30.404 being wiped away. 0:05:30.564 --> 0:05:33.884 Okay, The terms were, is there a player or coach 0:05:34.324 --> 0:05:37.724 who has a tear in their eye during the national anthem? 0:05:37.764 --> 0:05:40.924 I think I think you'd have to actually see the tier, 0:05:41.124 --> 0:05:42.284 not just the implication of the tier. 0:05:42.364 --> 0:05:44.724 But that's that's those were the terms that we carefully negotiated. 0:05:45.204 --> 0:05:47.084 There was you could see the tier, and whenever you 0:05:47.124 --> 0:05:49.484 saw the player's eyes you could actually see them welling up, 0:05:49.684 --> 0:05:51.724 which is one of the things I said, you know, 0:05:51.764 --> 0:05:52.924 the welling up with tiers. 0:05:53.084 --> 0:05:54.084 Okay, let me say this. 0:05:54.244 --> 0:05:57.204 Let's say we bet that a McDonald's hamburger would be 0:05:57.284 --> 0:06:01.804 shown on the broadcast, and what you see is the 0:06:01.844 --> 0:06:03.924 residue of a big knac. 0:06:04.004 --> 0:06:06.004 You see the rapper and some of the I don't know. 0:06:06.044 --> 0:06:09.004 But no, we saw the big We saw the final 0:06:09.044 --> 0:06:11.524 bite of the big mac being consumed, and that would 0:06:11.604 --> 0:06:14.804 count because we saw the final bite and then someone 0:06:14.804 --> 0:06:18.644 wiping away their mouth. So I think that I won 0:06:18.684 --> 0:06:24.204 this bet. Nate clearly has some issues with it, but 0:06:24.484 --> 0:06:26.764 I will side with all of the sports books, with 0:06:26.924 --> 0:06:31.004 our loyal fans who all say they also saw tears. Nate, 0:06:31.044 --> 0:06:33.204 I think I got this one, and I think what 0:06:33.284 --> 0:06:36.084 did you? I think you lost ten bucks? Right, We're okay. 0:06:36.924 --> 0:06:40.044 I'll buy you a beer for your tears, all. 0:06:40.044 --> 0:06:41.964 Right, perfect. I don't drink beer, but you can buy 0:06:41.964 --> 0:06:44.284 me half a glass of wine because I don't think 0:06:44.324 --> 0:06:46.084 ten dollars is gonna do the fun. We'll do a 0:06:46.124 --> 0:06:49.124 half poor. You owe me a half poor half wine. 0:06:49.284 --> 0:06:51.284 Ironically, the less you pay for wine, the bigger the 0:06:51.324 --> 0:06:53.044 better of the poor. It's a little secret. 0:06:53.164 --> 0:06:58.164 Yeah. Oh. I also wanted to correct the record from 0:06:58.604 --> 0:07:01.084 last week when we were talking about the coin flip. 0:07:01.364 --> 0:07:04.204 So I actually tracked down the study that looked at this, 0:07:05.284 --> 0:07:09.124 and it's by Percy Diaconus, who does really fun work 0:07:09.164 --> 0:07:13.324 and statistics, and it turns out that the coin is 0:07:13.364 --> 0:07:16.404 slightly more likely to land on the side from which 0:07:16.444 --> 0:07:19.684 it started. So that's when it's a human person tossing it. 0:07:19.844 --> 0:07:22.604 So if it starts with heads up, it's more likely 0:07:22.644 --> 0:07:26.164 to land heads like fifty points, it's not it's less 0:07:26.164 --> 0:07:28.444 than a half a percent. Like it's tiny, tiny, tiny, 0:07:28.484 --> 0:07:30.964 and you need thousands and thousands of tosses. But when 0:07:30.964 --> 0:07:33.844 it's a human being and not like a computer, not 0:07:33.884 --> 0:07:36.524 a simulation, it turns out that the coin is more 0:07:36.644 --> 0:07:39.524 likely to land on the side which was facing up 0:07:39.924 --> 0:07:41.964 at the start of the toss. So I just want 0:07:41.964 --> 0:07:44.924 to throw that out there for people who are doing 0:07:45.004 --> 0:07:45.444 these bets. 0:07:45.484 --> 0:07:47.404 I think I did say tails right. Yeah, I got 0:07:47.404 --> 0:07:48.924 that right, and the chiefs got that right, and that 0:07:49.004 --> 0:07:49.844 was the only yeah. 0:07:49.844 --> 0:07:51.484 So that was also the only. 0:07:51.324 --> 0:07:53.564 Thing that went right over the course the entire yeah. 0:07:53.644 --> 0:07:56.444 So the weight also matters, so we're we're both. I 0:07:56.524 --> 0:07:58.884 just wanted to make sure to put that study out 0:07:58.884 --> 0:08:00.604 there because I think it's a lot of fun and 0:08:00.644 --> 0:08:02.964 I think it's kind of cool that there's human error, right, 0:08:03.004 --> 0:08:06.004 that's introduced in the way that we the way that 0:08:06.044 --> 0:08:06.964 we toss coins. 0:08:07.244 --> 0:08:09.804 I mean, you know, they could do rock papers so right, 0:08:09.844 --> 0:08:12.164 which adds like nielman is strategy and game theory. 0:08:12.284 --> 0:08:14.884 Yeah, that would be fun. But they should They should 0:08:14.924 --> 0:08:18.244 get the uh A Japanese team to do this because 0:08:18.244 --> 0:08:20.284 I think they're the best at rochambo. I think they 0:08:20.284 --> 0:08:23.644 always win the championships. So they need they need like 0:08:23.684 --> 0:08:27.244 a backup team their quarterback to do the rock paper sesssor. 0:08:27.244 --> 0:08:31.324 WSO RPS World twiir is of rochambo or rock paper anyway. 0:08:31.004 --> 0:08:35.924 Yeah, there you go. All right, So that's the Super Bowl, Nate. 0:08:36.684 --> 0:08:40.484 I'm sorry that your team lost. I'm happy that I 0:08:40.604 --> 0:08:45.164 won our prop bet. And you know, I think we 0:08:45.244 --> 0:08:48.204 both agree that people gloating is never a good luck no. 0:08:48.724 --> 0:08:51.844 So you know, for example, for example, you wouldn't have 0:08:51.884 --> 0:08:54.884 mentioned the prep bet five times there. 0:08:54.724 --> 0:08:55.484 I think. 0:08:58.084 --> 0:09:00.444 Just once in our summation of the segment, which we 0:09:00.524 --> 0:09:03.364 always do. We always sum up what we've talked about. 0:09:03.644 --> 0:09:07.204 You're awesome bragging about a bet with you minus four hundred. 0:09:08.604 --> 0:09:12.564 I've been the sumach up tomorrow minus a million. All right, 0:09:12.644 --> 0:09:15.404 all right, all right, let's we have other things to discuss. 0:09:15.964 --> 0:09:18.284 That is true, we have important things to discuss. So 0:09:18.764 --> 0:09:21.684 let's talk about what has been going on in the 0:09:21.764 --> 0:09:25.164 last few weeks of the Trump presidency. So he's been, 0:09:25.324 --> 0:09:29.684 you know, splashing around quite a bit, trying different things, 0:09:29.724 --> 0:09:32.524 all of these executive orders, seeing what's going to stick. 0:09:32.804 --> 0:09:34.924 And as we've said before on the show, a lot 0:09:34.964 --> 0:09:37.724 of this is distraction, right, that is his tactic. How 0:09:37.764 --> 0:09:40.844 do you distract people from figuring out what's actually important 0:09:40.884 --> 0:09:44.164 and keep them just constantly putting out small fires so 0:09:44.204 --> 0:09:46.284 that when the big one comes along, you kind of 0:09:46.364 --> 0:09:49.084 just let it go. So let's talk about what is 0:09:49.204 --> 0:09:52.124 actually important to focus on and what we can ignore 0:09:52.164 --> 0:09:55.604 for now. So maybe as a start, Nate, let's just 0:09:55.644 --> 0:10:00.244 talk about some general heuristics, some good rules for choosing 0:10:00.484 --> 0:10:04.044 what to pay attention to. So when you try to 0:10:04.124 --> 0:10:06.564 figure out, okay, what should I be focusing on? What 0:10:06.684 --> 0:10:10.844 comes to mind? How do you figure out orties, whether 0:10:10.844 --> 0:10:13.324 it's Trump or anything else, just in general, what am 0:10:13.364 --> 0:10:14.444 I going to pay attention to? 0:10:14.804 --> 0:10:15.004 Well? 0:10:15.084 --> 0:10:16.964 My process is weird because I'm thinking about, like what 0:10:17.084 --> 0:10:19.364 things can I write about? So and also I have 0:10:19.404 --> 0:10:23.684 this kind of like distaining for like the daily politics crap. 0:10:23.804 --> 0:10:25.364 Like I never watch cable. 0:10:25.164 --> 0:10:28.244 News, right, I read the newspapers, I guess, or read 0:10:28.284 --> 0:10:29.724 the digital version of the newspapers. 0:10:29.724 --> 0:10:31.204 But like, so you know, to. 0:10:31.164 --> 0:10:33.084 Me to just say, like the thing that gets partisans 0:10:33.124 --> 0:10:35.804 wiled up on like X, blue sky whatever else, like 0:10:36.124 --> 0:10:38.444 don't pay attention to that generally speaking, right, because they 0:10:38.444 --> 0:10:42.684 are trying to, like you know, it's like following your 0:10:42.724 --> 0:10:45.044 the Yankees or your favorite baseball team, where it's like, yeah, 0:10:45.044 --> 0:10:46.524 there's going to be a headline every day, and like 0:10:46.564 --> 0:10:49.204 it probably isn't that important in the grand scheme of things. 0:10:49.404 --> 0:10:53.604 Yeah, I think I think that that's actually an important thing. 0:10:53.764 --> 0:10:57.684 I to try to kind of stay away from daily 0:10:57.804 --> 0:11:03.244 news because it's really really easy to get completely kind 0:11:03.244 --> 0:11:07.684 of caught up in this attention hijacking, right, and like 0:11:07.564 --> 0:11:11.444 the culture of momentary outrage. Oh he said this, this happened. 0:11:11.804 --> 0:11:15.444 And if you're too online, I think that nothing hijacks 0:11:15.444 --> 0:11:18.604 your attention more than that, right, Like the overly like 0:11:18.684 --> 0:11:22.004 being too involved in all of this discourse and every 0:11:22.044 --> 0:11:25.204 single thing that comes up. I think that that distracts 0:11:25.204 --> 0:11:28.484 you from bigger picture things. So something I always ask myself, 0:11:28.564 --> 0:11:30.724 is okay, you know, how important is this in the 0:11:30.724 --> 0:11:33.524 long term? What are the implications? Is this something that 0:11:33.524 --> 0:11:35.364 we're going to care about in a week? Right? Is 0:11:35.404 --> 0:11:37.284 this something that we're going to care about in a month. 0:11:37.484 --> 0:11:39.684 If the answer is yes, okay, maybe pay attention to it. 0:11:40.244 --> 0:11:43.444 If the answer is no, then I can safely avoid 0:11:43.564 --> 0:11:46.924 this particular conversation and not be a part of it. 0:11:47.124 --> 0:11:49.444 Like if you go to like MSNBC dot com right now, 0:11:49.524 --> 0:11:52.444 right read the headlines. One's about Kanye West, one's about 0:11:52.444 --> 0:11:56.204 like Steve Bannon, and then Eric Adams. Right, one's about 0:11:56.244 --> 0:12:00.084 Rob Lagoyevitch, the former government Illinois who has got partnered 0:12:00.164 --> 0:12:02.484 or is going to get pardoned. You know, Trump's frustration 0:12:02.524 --> 0:12:05.964 with deportation numbers will likely lead to more chaos, right 0:12:06.084 --> 0:12:08.524 is the headline of one article. So it's all stuff 0:12:08.524 --> 0:12:12.884 that like is designed to get an emotional reaction out 0:12:12.924 --> 0:12:13.604 of partisans. 0:12:13.804 --> 0:12:16.204 Yes, I can, I can. I make a confession, and 0:12:16.244 --> 0:12:20.124 I hope that they well they will take it personally, 0:12:20.164 --> 0:12:22.404 but I hope this does not affect my future career. 0:12:22.644 --> 0:12:25.604 I don't think I've ever gone to MSNBC dot com 0:12:25.724 --> 0:12:28.724 to the front page like that is just not a 0:12:28.724 --> 0:12:31.444 website that I have ever visited unless someone has given 0:12:31.484 --> 0:12:34.804 me a link to a specific article that I should 0:12:34.804 --> 0:12:37.684 be reading for some specific reason. Right, there are places 0:12:37.724 --> 0:12:40.924 that are meant to hijack your attention, and that to me, 0:12:41.484 --> 0:12:44.244 just like Fox News like on the other side, to me, 0:12:44.724 --> 0:12:47.084 those are places that are meant to kind of filment, 0:12:47.204 --> 0:12:49.524 outrage and hijack your attention, and I just try to 0:12:49.524 --> 0:12:51.844 stay out of that, right, Like, that is not how 0:12:51.884 --> 0:12:55.684 I want to consume my news. And we'll be back 0:12:55.764 --> 0:13:05.284 right after this. So, Nate, what are some of the 0:13:05.324 --> 0:13:10.284 things that Trump has done that are actually important, meaningful, 0:13:10.524 --> 0:13:13.964 consequential that we should actually be paying attention to. 0:13:14.684 --> 0:13:18.004 The fact that the Trump administration seems a little bit 0:13:18.044 --> 0:13:23.564 indifferent toward separation of powers. You know, I had this 0:13:23.684 --> 0:13:26.004 article called one hundred and thirteen predictions about Trump and 0:13:26.084 --> 0:13:30.724 like le of various things go right or run, And 0:13:30.764 --> 0:13:32.724 you know, I had what's a chance that he'll disobey 0:13:33.644 --> 0:13:35.244 a Supreme Court order? 0:13:35.364 --> 0:13:37.444 Which I had ten percent. 0:13:37.164 --> 0:13:39.844 Which sounds low because usually it's conservaed Supreme Court, right, 0:13:39.884 --> 0:13:41.244 so it's like you would if he could. But like, 0:13:41.524 --> 0:13:43.604 but you know, we are getting more and more issues 0:13:43.644 --> 0:13:46.924 where they're like Okay, go ahead, and we're gonna do 0:13:46.964 --> 0:13:49.404 a bunch of shit that we know is illegal, and 0:13:50.284 --> 0:13:53.724 go ahead and stop us. We have first mover advantage, 0:13:53.804 --> 0:14:00.084 and then we will interpret very liberally every ambiguity and 0:14:00.164 --> 0:14:03.364 things like that. And you know, and so that whole 0:14:03.404 --> 0:14:07.084 thrust of things. I mean, you know, people start all 0:14:07.084 --> 0:14:09.484 of a sudden saying no, this is a coup and 0:14:09.484 --> 0:14:12.444 that auto golpe is a self coup where you get 0:14:12.484 --> 0:14:15.284 in power and then destroy And like, I think the 0:14:15.284 --> 0:14:19.164 problem is that like the audience for this message are 0:14:19.204 --> 0:14:21.284 people who are like already convinced and because this is 0:14:21.284 --> 0:14:25.324 this like abstract thing, and you know, the thing is 0:14:25.524 --> 0:14:31.364 like he's targeting us aid, you know, foreign assistance, even 0:14:31.404 --> 0:14:33.924 though if you kind of look from an ev standpoint, 0:14:34.004 --> 0:14:35.924 probably has a lot of utilitarian benefit. 0:14:36.364 --> 0:14:38.604 Four and eight is not a very popular program, right. 0:14:39.644 --> 0:14:42.044 A lot of the other executive worriers are doing are 0:14:42.204 --> 0:14:45.084 things and are popular enough, or they have a mandate 0:14:45.844 --> 0:14:48.604 to do based on the election, on the immigration stuff, 0:14:48.804 --> 0:14:52.084 for example, And so I don't know, I uh, what 0:14:52.164 --> 0:14:52.884 do you think, Maria? 0:14:53.324 --> 0:14:56.084 No, I mean, I totally agree with you that like 0:14:56.684 --> 0:14:59.004 number one issue, which underlies a lot of what's going 0:14:59.004 --> 0:15:01.684 on is a lack of regard for separation of power. 0:15:01.884 --> 0:15:04.364 And I don't think that this is just Trump. I 0:15:04.364 --> 0:15:07.284 think that this is also kind of Congress lacking a 0:15:07.324 --> 0:15:10.284 backbone and not being like, hey, you're taking away powers 0:15:10.284 --> 0:15:12.604 that should be ours, right, instead of doing that and 0:15:12.644 --> 0:15:15.204 being like, hey, guys, like this is ours. We're the 0:15:15.204 --> 0:15:18.604 ones who who control the purse strings, right, We're the 0:15:18.604 --> 0:15:22.044 ones who do these allocations the budget committee matters. Instead 0:15:22.084 --> 0:15:25.044 they're like being Okay, you know you gave us, you 0:15:25.084 --> 0:15:28.524 gave another executive order. Okay, that's cool, Like it's what 0:15:28.564 --> 0:15:30.844 we want, so it's fine. But I think that it's 0:15:31.284 --> 0:15:34.284 very short term thinking, and I think that's incredibly dangerous. Right, 0:15:34.324 --> 0:15:37.284 So that to me is very worrisome because we want 0:15:37.604 --> 0:15:40.084 a government that does check each other, that you know, 0:15:40.124 --> 0:15:42.804 that is responsive, and we do want a judicial system 0:15:43.084 --> 0:15:45.564 that is listened to. Like it's actually going to be 0:15:45.844 --> 0:15:50.244 very scary if Trump just flat out defies a judicial order, right, Like, 0:15:50.404 --> 0:15:53.164 what's going to happen? Then is the rest of government 0:15:53.204 --> 0:15:55.964 going to grow a spine or not? So I agree 0:15:56.004 --> 0:15:58.404 with you that that is very important, and I also 0:15:58.564 --> 0:16:01.204 but there are other issues that I think are part 0:16:01.244 --> 0:16:04.164 of this that I think are also worth paying attention. 0:16:04.484 --> 0:16:09.644 I actually think that cutting the funding to USAID is 0:16:09.644 --> 0:16:14.084 is a major issue and not good because you can 0:16:14.164 --> 0:16:17.764 obviously frame it and oh, like we only care about America, right, 0:16:17.764 --> 0:16:20.404 America first. But if you think about what AID is 0:16:20.564 --> 0:16:24.844 actually being cut, right, people are not getting life saving medications, 0:16:24.884 --> 0:16:27.764 like you actually have a body count, right, you will 0:16:27.764 --> 0:16:30.524 have people who will die without access to these medications, 0:16:30.604 --> 0:16:34.004 without access to some of these programs, And so I 0:16:34.004 --> 0:16:36.644 think that's a huge deal. And people are just looking 0:16:36.644 --> 0:16:38.404 the other way and saying, well, I don't care, it's 0:16:38.444 --> 0:16:41.124 not me, it could be you, right like that that's 0:16:41.164 --> 0:16:42.884 actually incredibly important. 0:16:42.884 --> 0:16:46.404 Look, it could be an opportunity for private charitable organizations, 0:16:46.404 --> 0:16:49.164 which are sometimes more efficient than the government, to step up. 0:16:49.244 --> 0:16:52.484 But yeah, like you almost can kind of like the 0:16:52.524 --> 0:16:54.764 equilibrium research that you know, it probably is pretty good 0:16:54.764 --> 0:16:59.124 from utilitarian standpoint, because it's unpopular, right for America to 0:16:59.124 --> 0:17:01.124 do something that doesn't help us directly, and of course, 0:17:01.164 --> 0:17:03.604 you know, having more stability in the world can help 0:17:03.684 --> 0:17:06.524 us directly, can help us, but like it kind of 0:17:06.524 --> 0:17:09.404 has to be good in order for us to tolerate it. 0:17:09.684 --> 0:17:10.644 You know, exactly. 0:17:11.124 --> 0:17:13.324 The third thing that I would say, though, since I 0:17:13.444 --> 0:17:19.084 do come from academia and I am very well aware 0:17:19.204 --> 0:17:23.804 of the importance of research, I'm actually very worried about 0:17:23.844 --> 0:17:26.284 the NIH funding as well, which is part of you 0:17:26.284 --> 0:17:28.004 know what Trump has been trying to do over and 0:17:28.044 --> 0:17:31.044 over and over, Like, he has tried to do this repeatedly, 0:17:31.124 --> 0:17:34.204 and I think that it's really going to if it 0:17:34.284 --> 0:17:36.724 holds right, because people are actually trying to protest this, 0:17:37.324 --> 0:17:40.684 then capping the indirect cost at fifteen percent is going 0:17:40.764 --> 0:17:44.804 to be a huge blow to research in the United States, 0:17:44.804 --> 0:17:47.084 to innovation in the United States, to the number of 0:17:47.084 --> 0:17:50.044 people who can and will stay here. And I think 0:17:50.084 --> 0:17:53.084 it's actually something that will make us a whole lot 0:17:53.244 --> 0:17:58.924 less competitive on the global arena than we currently are. Like, 0:17:58.924 --> 0:18:01.444 it's a big fuck you to research. By the way, 0:18:01.484 --> 0:18:03.804 this is from someone who has written about and talked 0:18:03.804 --> 0:18:07.364 about the fact that there's tons of administrative bloat in academia, right, 0:18:07.404 --> 0:18:09.444 this ain't the way to get rid of it, and 0:18:09.564 --> 0:18:12.084 this is aiming at something very different despite what the 0:18:12.124 --> 0:18:13.044 rhetoric might say. 0:18:13.204 --> 0:18:14.844 Yeah, I mean, this is also one of the you know, 0:18:14.884 --> 0:18:18.684 I've had enough fights with enough like woke academics over 0:18:18.724 --> 0:18:21.764 the years and criticisms over the politicization and research and 0:18:22.324 --> 0:18:25.644 just not politicized but just kind of crappy research that's 0:18:25.724 --> 0:18:28.764 you know, p hacking and things like that. You know, look, 0:18:28.844 --> 0:18:30.524 the good news is all over, and I might make 0:18:30.524 --> 0:18:33.604 all this more popular again, but like we're only three 0:18:34.164 --> 0:18:37.964 weeks in, and I understand that people feel overwhelmed. 0:18:38.164 --> 0:18:40.884 Yeah, and as you say, like it is showing a 0:18:40.924 --> 0:18:44.244 disdain for a very real public good, right for things 0:18:44.284 --> 0:18:47.324 that help both the United States and people individually, for 0:18:47.484 --> 0:18:50.884 really crucial research. And you know, I was I was 0:18:50.924 --> 0:18:54.084 talking to my sister who is an mdphd who runs 0:18:54.124 --> 0:18:56.884 a lab who's fund to get is getting cut who 0:18:57.044 --> 0:18:58.884 you know, it doesn't know if the NAH grant that 0:18:58.924 --> 0:19:01.124 she was supposed to get is actually going to come through. 0:19:01.684 --> 0:19:04.724 And she's doing like life saving work with infants and 0:19:04.804 --> 0:19:08.004 infant health and all of these different things, and we 0:19:08.004 --> 0:19:09.524 were just talking about it, and I was trying to 0:19:09.524 --> 0:19:12.164 calm her down because obviously, like she's very upset. And 0:19:12.204 --> 0:19:14.204 I was like, look like, you know, if this makes 0:19:14.244 --> 0:19:16.444 him unpopular enough, if he tries to do too much, 0:19:16.484 --> 0:19:19.564 then in two years, you know, Democrats should be able 0:19:19.604 --> 0:19:22.684 to win the midterm elections and blah blah blah. She's like, yeah, 0:19:22.724 --> 0:19:25.084 but two years could actually be enough to kill a 0:19:25.124 --> 0:19:28.444 lot of crucial research programs and to get people to 0:19:28.564 --> 0:19:30.764 leave the United States right to get some research, to 0:19:30.884 --> 0:19:32.924 go to Europe, to go to Asia, to go to 0:19:33.004 --> 0:19:36.484 places that will actually be able to carry out the 0:19:36.484 --> 0:19:40.164 types of work that they need to be carrying out. 0:19:40.484 --> 0:19:43.724 And so I think that in general we've seen both 0:19:43.724 --> 0:19:47.404 for Milan and from Trump, this like anti anti public 0:19:47.404 --> 0:19:52.124 good but also anti science stance that is really playing 0:19:52.164 --> 0:19:55.004 out here and it affects not just science. 0:19:55.084 --> 0:19:55.244 Right. 0:19:55.324 --> 0:20:00.084 One of the reasons that I that the NIH was 0:20:00.124 --> 0:20:04.604 so important was because the federal funding actually helped a 0:20:04.644 --> 0:20:08.204 lot of other research go forward that wouldn't have otherwise 0:20:08.204 --> 0:20:12.284 been able to go forward because private corporations tend to 0:20:13.084 --> 0:20:15.404 give a lot less money and tend to have a 0:20:15.444 --> 0:20:20.444 lot lower limits on that overhead. And that's in the 0:20:20.564 --> 0:20:23.644 universities were able to kind of make up the shortfall 0:20:23.724 --> 0:20:27.084 because they had NAH funding. And this helped funding in 0:20:27.124 --> 0:20:30.804 the arts right, funding in areas in the humanities that 0:20:31.444 --> 0:20:36.124 won't otherwise get funding because there ain't much money for them. 0:20:36.164 --> 0:20:38.884 I mean, look, maybe forcing people to be more efficient 0:20:38.964 --> 0:20:39.764