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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 2: Today on the show, we're talking about the super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: which was a tremendously disappointing result if you don't like

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Speaker 2: seeing men crying or the Kansas City Chiefs America's team losing.

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Speaker 3: But we'll talk about how that went and our belt.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and then we're going to talk about Trump, what's

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Speaker 1: been going on in the last few weeks, and kind

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Speaker 1: of what the important things are to focus on. Right

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Speaker 1: where should we be diverting our attention, what should we

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Speaker 1: be not looking at at all, because obviously there's a

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Speaker 1: barrage of things that are being plung at a and

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Speaker 1: it's very important, as we've said over and over, to focus.

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Speaker 3: And then how to find the Holy Grail a nice

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Speaker 3: apartment in New York City.

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Speaker 1: Yes, good luck with that search tonight. And after that

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Speaker 1: we will actually have a special segment for our Pushkin

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Speaker 1: Plus subscribers, answering a timeless question from a listener, how

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Speaker 1: do you pick a good doctor? All right, Nate, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: As one of the few people rooting for the Kansas

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Speaker 2: City Chiefs and betting, not necessarily for a plus CV bit,

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Speaker 2: but following my heart my partners from Kansas City. I

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Speaker 2: thought that game was a fucking nightmare. I have to say,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. And to see I'm not anti Tom Brady,

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Speaker 2: but to see Tom Brady gloating that he's going to

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Speaker 2: keep his goat status for now.

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Speaker 3: Patrick, you know I've been in a situation nineteen times

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Speaker 3: and Packrick, it was just fucking bunking. It was.

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Speaker 2: I rarely am bothered by sports, right, you assume you

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Speaker 2: lose half the time, and this like this bug me me, Maria.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I like Philly, Philly is against City. Let's

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Speaker 3: let's say that. Like I'm usually pro Philly. That region, that.

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Speaker 2: Whole Philly, Baltimore, sure, Maryland regions kind of a weird region.

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Speaker 2: You know, they have interesting accents, interesting food, right, I

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Speaker 2: feel like it's it's I take that region over New England.

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Speaker 1: Oh interesting. Well, as a New Englander, I actually happen

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Speaker 1: to agree. I'm you know, I'm a Bostonian who's who's

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Speaker 1: not a huge Boston fan. So so there you have it.

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Speaker 1: But I actually have the same beef with with Philly.

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Speaker 1: That I have with Boston, which is that their sports

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Speaker 1: fans can be really nasty. I don't like nasty sports fans.

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Speaker 1: I like people who like our sports fans, you know,

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Speaker 1: and have good spirit, but don't get don't get like

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Speaker 1: really mean when they win. And I don't know, Philly's

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Speaker 1: not as bad as but Boston. I think we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this on the show before. Is awful. Right when

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox finally won the World Series and reverse

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Speaker 1: the curse, they were setting cars on fire in Harvard Square,

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Speaker 1: Like what the actual fund?

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Speaker 2: I mean, you're kind of deprived of like sunlight up there,

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Speaker 2: stuff much fucking sunlight in Boston in the winter.

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Speaker 1: That's very true. That's very true. But there's not much

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Speaker 1: sunlight in New York right now either, So so yes,

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Speaker 1: I don't like it when sports fans get really nasty.

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Speaker 1: But I do like Philly, and I think that this

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Speaker 1: is all good. I also don't like gloating, so I'm

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Speaker 1: with you that the Tom Brady thing is a little

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Speaker 1: bit off putting. Luckily, I did not listen to you.

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Speaker 1: I did not put any money on the Chiefs, So

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Speaker 1: I'm good, even though you advised me too.

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Speaker 3: You know, at least.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't a bat where you ever had hope, you know,

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Speaker 2: the hope was immediate, I guess of that one interception

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Speaker 2: in the first layer.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and by the way, dear listeners, I did watch

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Speaker 1: the whole thing because first of all, I needed to

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Speaker 1: watch from the beginning, because I needed to know that

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Speaker 1: I want and our prop bet about crying.

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Speaker 2: Which I'm not even sure have we review the video

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Speaker 2: on this, I'm not even.

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Speaker 3: Sure about this is this is so funny.

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Speaker 1: So all of the sports books have called it in

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Speaker 1: my favor. And Nate and I had a text exchange

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Speaker 1: at the time.

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Speaker 3: We had different terms. We had different terms.

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Speaker 2: He said a tear.

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Speaker 3: I saw tears, not crying, but I.

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Speaker 1: Saw tears and eyes and there was even someone wiping

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Speaker 1: away a tear, to which Nate wrote, So this is

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Speaker 1: our text exchange. I actually sorry, Nate, this is this

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Speaker 1: is about to become a public record. So someone one

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Speaker 1: of our you know, loyal listeners on Twitter the moment

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Speaker 1: this happened, tweeted at us, at both of us, saying

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Speaker 1: they just showed a player wiping away a tear during

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Speaker 1: the national anthem exclamation point, and I was like, hell, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I know they did, because I'm watching.

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Speaker 2: If a tear falls in the forest and no one

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Speaker 2: is there to see it, it is the man crying

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Speaker 2: and so and so.

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Speaker 1: I sent this to Night and Nate said, saw tears

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Speaker 1: being wiped but maybe not actual tears. And I said, dude, no,

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Speaker 1: And I still stand by mind, dude, no, resolute.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna have to go to a video. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is a small bit.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna you know, I mean, I'm the chiefs

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Speaker 2: thing already as we devastated, right, but like you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't know about that.

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Speaker 1: You have to you have to embrace it.

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Speaker 3: I went. We negotiated the term was carefully.

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Speaker 1: We did, but there was a tier and it was

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Speaker 1: being wiped away.

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Speaker 2: Okay, The terms were, is there a player or coach

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Speaker 2: who has a tear in their eye during the national anthem?

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Speaker 2: I think I think you'd have to actually see the tier,

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Speaker 2: not just the implication of the tier.

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Speaker 3: But that's that's those were the terms that we carefully negotiated.

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Speaker 1: There was you could see the tier, and whenever you

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Speaker 1: saw the player's eyes you could actually see them welling up,

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Speaker 1: which is one of the things I said, you know,

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Speaker 1: the welling up with tiers.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let me say this.

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Speaker 2: Let's say we bet that a McDonald's hamburger would be

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Speaker 2: shown on the broadcast, and what you see is the

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Speaker 2: residue of a big knac.

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Speaker 3: You see the rapper and some of the I don't know.

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Speaker 1: But no, we saw the big We saw the final

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Speaker 1: bite of the big mac being consumed, and that would

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Speaker 1: count because we saw the final bite and then someone

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Speaker 1: wiping away their mouth. So I think that I won

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Speaker 1: this bet. Nate clearly has some issues with it, but

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Speaker 1: I will side with all of the sports books, with

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Speaker 1: our loyal fans who all say they also saw tears. Nate,

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Speaker 1: I think I got this one, and I think what

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Speaker 1: did you? I think you lost ten bucks? Right, We're okay.

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Speaker 3: I'll buy you a beer for your tears, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, perfect. I don't drink beer, but you can buy

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Speaker 1: me half a glass of wine because I don't think

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Speaker 1: ten dollars is gonna do the fun. We'll do a

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Speaker 1: half poor. You owe me a half poor half wine.

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Speaker 3: Ironically, the less you pay for wine, the bigger the

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Speaker 3: better of the poor. It's a little secret.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Oh. I also wanted to correct the record from

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Speaker 1: last week when we were talking about the coin flip.

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Speaker 1: So I actually tracked down the study that looked at this,

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Speaker 1: and it's by Percy Diaconus, who does really fun work

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Speaker 1: and statistics, and it turns out that the coin is

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Speaker 1: slightly more likely to land on the side from which

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Speaker 1: it started. So that's when it's a human person tossing it.

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Speaker 1: So if it starts with heads up, it's more likely

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Speaker 1: to land heads like fifty points, it's not it's less

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Speaker 1: than a half a percent. Like it's tiny, tiny, tiny,

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Speaker 1: and you need thousands and thousands of tosses. But when

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Speaker 1: it's a human being and not like a computer, not

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Speaker 1: a simulation, it turns out that the coin is more

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Speaker 1: likely to land on the side which was facing up

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Speaker 1: at the start of the toss. So I just want

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Speaker 1: to throw that out there for people who are doing

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Speaker 1: these bets.

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Speaker 3: I think I did say tails right. Yeah, I got

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Speaker 3: that right, and the chiefs got that right, and that

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Speaker 3: was the only yeah.

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Speaker 1: So that was also the only.

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Speaker 3: Thing that went right over the course the entire yeah.

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Speaker 1: So the weight also matters, so we're we're both. I

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Speaker 1: just wanted to make sure to put that study out

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Speaker 1: there because I think it's a lot of fun and

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Speaker 1: I think it's kind of cool that there's human error, right,

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Speaker 1: that's introduced in the way that we the way that

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Speaker 1: we toss coins.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, they could do rock papers so right,

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Speaker 2: which adds like nielman is strategy and game theory.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be fun. But they should They should

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Speaker 1: get the uh A Japanese team to do this because

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Speaker 1: I think they're the best at rochambo. I think they

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Speaker 1: always win the championships. So they need they need like

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Speaker 1: a backup team their quarterback to do the rock paper sesssor.

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Speaker 2: WSO RPS World twiir is of rochambo or rock paper anyway.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. All right, So that's the Super Bowl, Nate.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry that your team lost. I'm happy that I

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Speaker 1: won our prop bet. And you know, I think we

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Speaker 1: both agree that people gloating is never a good luck no.

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Speaker 2: So you know, for example, for example, you wouldn't have

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Speaker 2: mentioned the prep bet five times there.

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Speaker 3: I think.

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Speaker 1: Just once in our summation of the segment, which we

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Speaker 1: always do. We always sum up what we've talked about.

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Speaker 2: You're awesome bragging about a bet with you minus four hundred.

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Speaker 2: I've been the sumach up tomorrow minus a million. All right,

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Speaker 2: all right, all right, let's we have other things to discuss.

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Speaker 1: That is true, we have important things to discuss. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about what has been going on in the

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Speaker 1: last few weeks of the Trump presidency. So he's been,

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Speaker 1: you know, splashing around quite a bit, trying different things,

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Speaker 1: all of these executive orders, seeing what's going to stick.

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Speaker 1: And as we've said before on the show, a lot

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Speaker 1: of this is distraction, right, that is his tactic. How

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Speaker 1: do you distract people from figuring out what's actually important

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Speaker 1: and keep them just constantly putting out small fires so

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Speaker 1: that when the big one comes along, you kind of

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Speaker 1: just let it go. So let's talk about what is

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Speaker 1: actually important to focus on and what we can ignore

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Speaker 1: for now. So maybe as a start, Nate, let's just

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Speaker 1: talk about some general heuristics, some good rules for choosing

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Speaker 1: what to pay attention to. So when you try to

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Speaker 1: figure out, okay, what should I be focusing on? What

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Speaker 1: comes to mind? How do you figure out orties, whether

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Speaker 1: it's Trump or anything else, just in general, what am

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Speaker 1: I going to pay attention to?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 2: My process is weird because I'm thinking about, like what

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Speaker 2: things can I write about? So and also I have

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Speaker 2: this kind of like distaining for like the daily politics crap.

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Speaker 3: Like I never watch cable.

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Speaker 2: News, right, I read the newspapers, I guess, or read

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Speaker 2: the digital version of the newspapers.

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Speaker 3: But like, so you know, to.

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Speaker 2: Me to just say, like the thing that gets partisans

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Speaker 2: wiled up on like X, blue sky whatever else, like

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Speaker 2: don't pay attention to that generally speaking, right, because they

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Speaker 2: are trying to, like you know, it's like following your

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Speaker 2: the Yankees or your favorite baseball team, where it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's going to be a headline every day, and like

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Speaker 2: it probably isn't that important in the grand scheme of things.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think that that's actually an important thing.

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Speaker 1: I to try to kind of stay away from daily

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Speaker 1: news because it's really really easy to get completely kind

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Speaker 1: of caught up in this attention hijacking, right, and like

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Speaker 1: the culture of momentary outrage. Oh he said this, this happened.

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Speaker 1: And if you're too online, I think that nothing hijacks

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Speaker 1: your attention more than that, right, Like the overly like

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Speaker 1: being too involved in all of this discourse and every

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Speaker 1: single thing that comes up. I think that that distracts

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Speaker 1: you from bigger picture things. So something I always ask myself,

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Speaker 1: is okay, you know, how important is this in the

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Speaker 1: long term? What are the implications? Is this something that

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Speaker 1: we're going to care about in a week? Right? Is

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Speaker 1: this something that we're going to care about in a month.

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Speaker 1: If the answer is yes, okay, maybe pay attention to it.

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Speaker 1: If the answer is no, then I can safely avoid

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Speaker 1: this particular conversation and not be a part of it.

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Speaker 2: Like if you go to like MSNBC dot com right now,

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Speaker 2: right read the headlines. One's about Kanye West, one's about

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Speaker 2: like Steve Bannon, and then Eric Adams. Right, one's about

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Speaker 2: Rob Lagoyevitch, the former government Illinois who has got partnered

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Speaker 2: or is going to get pardoned. You know, Trump's frustration

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Speaker 2: with deportation numbers will likely lead to more chaos, right

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Speaker 2: is the headline of one article. So it's all stuff

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Speaker 2: that like is designed to get an emotional reaction out

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Speaker 2: of partisans.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I can, I can. I make a confession, and

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Speaker 1: I hope that they well they will take it personally,

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Speaker 1: but I hope this does not affect my future career.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever gone to MSNBC dot com

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Speaker 1: to the front page like that is just not a

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Speaker 1: website that I have ever visited unless someone has given

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Speaker 1: me a link to a specific article that I should

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Speaker 1: be reading for some specific reason. Right, there are places

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Speaker 1: that are meant to hijack your attention, and that to me,

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Speaker 1: just like Fox News like on the other side, to me,

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Speaker 1: those are places that are meant to kind of filment,

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Speaker 1: outrage and hijack your attention, and I just try to

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Speaker 1: stay out of that, right, Like, that is not how

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Speaker 1: I want to consume my news. And we'll be back

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Speaker 1: right after this. So, Nate, what are some of the

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Speaker 1: things that Trump has done that are actually important, meaningful,

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Speaker 1: consequential that we should actually be paying attention to.

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Speaker 2: The fact that the Trump administration seems a little bit

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Speaker 2: indifferent toward separation of powers. You know, I had this

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Speaker 2: article called one hundred and thirteen predictions about Trump and

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Speaker 2: like le of various things go right or run, And

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Speaker 2: you know, I had what's a chance that he'll disobey

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Speaker 2: a Supreme Court order?

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Speaker 3: Which I had ten percent.

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Speaker 2: Which sounds low because usually it's conservaed Supreme Court, right,

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Speaker 2: so it's like you would if he could. But like,

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Speaker 2: but you know, we are getting more and more issues

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Speaker 2: where they're like Okay, go ahead, and we're gonna do

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Speaker 2: a bunch of shit that we know is illegal, and

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Speaker 2: go ahead and stop us. We have first mover advantage,

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Speaker 2: and then we will interpret very liberally every ambiguity and

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Speaker 2: things like that. And you know, and so that whole

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Speaker 2: thrust of things. I mean, you know, people start all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden saying no, this is a coup and

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Speaker 2: that auto golpe is a self coup where you get

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Speaker 2: in power and then destroy And like, I think the

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Speaker 2: problem is that like the audience for this message are

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Speaker 2: people who are like already convinced and because this is

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Speaker 2: this like abstract thing, and you know, the thing is

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Speaker 2: like he's targeting us aid, you know, foreign assistance, even

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Speaker 2: though if you kind of look from an ev standpoint,

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Speaker 2: probably has a lot of utilitarian benefit.

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Speaker 3: Four and eight is not a very popular program, right.

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Speaker 2: A lot of the other executive worriers are doing are

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Speaker 2: things and are popular enough, or they have a mandate

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Speaker 2: to do based on the election, on the immigration stuff,

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Speaker 2: for example, And so I don't know, I uh, what

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Speaker 2: do you think, Maria?

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Speaker 1: No, I mean, I totally agree with you that like

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Speaker 1: number one issue, which underlies a lot of what's going

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Speaker 1: on is a lack of regard for separation of power.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that this is just Trump. I

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Speaker 1: think that this is also kind of Congress lacking a

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Speaker 1: backbone and not being like, hey, you're taking away powers

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Speaker 1: that should be ours, right, instead of doing that and

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Speaker 1: being like, hey, guys, like this is ours. We're the

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Speaker 1: ones who who control the purse strings, right, We're the

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Speaker 1: ones who do these allocations the budget committee matters. Instead

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Speaker 1: they're like being Okay, you know you gave us, you

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Speaker 1: gave another executive order. Okay, that's cool, Like it's what

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Speaker 1: we want, so it's fine. But I think that it's

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Speaker 1: very short term thinking, and I think that's incredibly dangerous. Right,

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Speaker 1: So that to me is very worrisome because we want

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Speaker 1: a government that does check each other, that you know,

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Speaker 1: that is responsive, and we do want a judicial system

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Speaker 1: that is listened to. Like it's actually going to be

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Speaker 1: very scary if Trump just flat out defies a judicial order, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen? Then is the rest of government

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Speaker 1: going to grow a spine or not? So I agree

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Speaker 1: with you that that is very important, and I also

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Speaker 1: but there are other issues that I think are part

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Speaker 1: of this that I think are also worth paying attention.

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Speaker 1: I actually think that cutting the funding to USAID is

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Speaker 1: is a major issue and not good because you can

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Speaker 1: obviously frame it and oh, like we only care about America, right,

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Speaker 1: America first. But if you think about what AID is

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Speaker 1: actually being cut, right, people are not getting life saving medications,

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Speaker 1: like you actually have a body count, right, you will

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Speaker 1: have people who will die without access to these medications,

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Speaker 1: without access to some of these programs, And so I

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Speaker 1: think that's a huge deal. And people are just looking

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Speaker 1: the other way and saying, well, I don't care, it's

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Speaker 1: not me, it could be you, right like that that's

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Speaker 1: actually incredibly important.

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Speaker 2: Look, it could be an opportunity for private charitable organizations,

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Speaker 2: which are sometimes more efficient than the government, to step up.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, like you almost can kind of like the

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Speaker 2: equilibrium research that you know, it probably is pretty good

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Speaker 2: from utilitarian standpoint, because it's unpopular, right for America to

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Speaker 2: do something that doesn't help us directly, and of course,

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Speaker 2: you know, having more stability in the world can help

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Speaker 2: us directly, can help us, but like it kind of

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Speaker 2: has to be good in order for us to tolerate it.

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Speaker 3: You know, exactly.

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Speaker 1: The third thing that I would say, though, since I

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Speaker 1: do come from academia and I am very well aware

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Speaker 1: of the importance of research, I'm actually very worried about

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Speaker 1: the NIH funding as well, which is part of you

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Speaker 1: know what Trump has been trying to do over and

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Speaker 1: over and over, Like, he has tried to do this repeatedly,

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Speaker 1: and I think that it's really going to if it

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Speaker 1: holds right, because people are actually trying to protest this,

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Speaker 1: then capping the indirect cost at fifteen percent is going

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Speaker 1: to be a huge blow to research in the United States,

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Speaker 1: to innovation in the United States, to the number of

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Speaker 1: people who can and will stay here. And I think

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Speaker 1: it's actually something that will make us a whole lot

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Speaker 1: less competitive on the global arena than we currently are. Like,

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Speaker 1: it's a big fuck you to research. By the way,

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Speaker 1: this is from someone who has written about and talked

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Speaker 1: about the fact that there's tons of administrative bloat in academia, right,

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Speaker 1: this ain't the way to get rid of it, and

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Speaker 1: this is aiming at something very different despite what the

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Speaker 1: rhetoric might say.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is also one of the you know,

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Speaker 2: I've had enough fights with enough like woke academics over

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Speaker 2: the years and criticisms over the politicization and research and

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Speaker 2: just not politicized but just kind of crappy research that's

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Speaker 2: you know, p hacking and things like that. You know, look,

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Speaker 2: the good news is all over, and I might make

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Speaker 2: all this more popular again, but like we're only three

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Speaker 2: weeks in, and I understand that people feel overwhelmed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and as you say, like it is showing a

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Speaker 1: disdain for a very real public good, right for things

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Speaker 1: that help both the United States and people individually, for

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Speaker 1: really crucial research. And you know, I was I was

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Speaker 1: talking to my sister who is an mdphd who runs

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Speaker 1: a lab who's fund to get is getting cut who

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Speaker 1: you know, it doesn't know if the NAH grant that

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Speaker 1: she was supposed to get is actually going to come through.

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Speaker 1: And she's doing like life saving work with infants and

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Speaker 1: infant health and all of these different things, and we

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Speaker 1: were just talking about it, and I was trying to

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Speaker 1: calm her down because obviously, like she's very upset. And

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Speaker 1: I was like, look like, you know, if this makes

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Speaker 1: him unpopular enough, if he tries to do too much,

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Speaker 1: then in two years, you know, Democrats should be able

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Speaker 1: to win the midterm elections and blah blah blah. She's like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: but two years could actually be enough to kill a

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Speaker 1: lot of crucial research programs and to get people to

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Speaker 1: leave the United States right to get some research, to

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Speaker 1: go to Europe, to go to Asia, to go to

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Speaker 1: places that will actually be able to carry out the

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Speaker 1: types of work that they need to be carrying out.

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Speaker 1: And so I think that in general we've seen both

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Speaker 1: for Milan and from Trump, this like anti anti public

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Speaker 1: good but also anti science stance that is really playing

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Speaker 1: out here and it affects not just science.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: One of the reasons that I that the NIH was

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Speaker 1: so important was because the federal funding actually helped a

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Speaker 1: lot of other research go forward that wouldn't have otherwise

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Speaker 1: been able to go forward because private corporations tend to

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Speaker 1: give a lot less money and tend to have a

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Speaker 1: lot lower limits on that overhead. And that's in the

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Speaker 1: universities were able to kind of make up the shortfall

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Speaker 1: because they had NAH funding. And this helped funding in

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Speaker 1: the arts right, funding in areas in the humanities that

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Speaker 1: won't otherwise get funding because there ain't much money for them.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, maybe forcing people to be more efficient

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Speaker 2: isn't such a bad thing.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: It's like, this is an efficiency. It's already incredibly efficient,

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Speaker 1: is what I was telling you. Even though even though,

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Speaker 1: like I said, no academia has bloated, like we started

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Speaker 1: this conversation, I am very anti academic bloat. But this

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Speaker 1: isn't the way. This is like taking a hammer and

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Speaker 1: being like, let me just crush academia. And I think

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Speaker 1: you agree with that, as opposed to saying like, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's figure out where inefficiencies are. It's the opposite of

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Speaker 1: what we talked about last week with the FAA and

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Speaker 1: like how you were saying, well, just throwing more money

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Speaker 1: at it, and I was like, no, don't throw more money

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Speaker 1: at it. Try to figure out how the money's allocated.

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Speaker 1: How do we do this more efficiently. Here, it's the

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Speaker 1: exact opposite. It's just saying, well, let's just take money away.

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Speaker 1: There are entire universities that actually cannot have a research

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Speaker 1: program without this. You know, sure, like a Harvard, a

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Speaker 1: Yale will will probably be fine, even though the research

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Speaker 1: is going to get worse, because they can figure out

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Speaker 1: how to deal with the shortfall. But schools that aren't

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Speaker 1: like that are not going to be able to.

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Speaker 3: When the church and students was it eighty thousand? You know,

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Speaker 3: I mean use that money.

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Speaker 1: Hey, they do, That's the thing they use. They do.

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Speaker 3: They have way more money than indowments than they needs.

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Speaker 3: Start actually using those endowmonds. You don't need. You don't

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Speaker 3: need to be a little hedgephone.

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Speaker 1: So I'm saying Harvard and Yale will be fine, but

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Speaker 1: what about everywhere else? Those aren't the only two schools

431
00:21:59,324 --> 00:22:00,444
Speaker 1: where research happens.

432
00:22:00,644 --> 00:22:02,564
Speaker 2: All I'm saying is like, is like you have to

433
00:22:02,684 --> 00:22:05,404
Speaker 2: because there's so much you're trying to cut costs. There's

434
00:22:05,404 --> 00:22:09,804
Speaker 2: so much like special leading, right, you can always make

435
00:22:09,804 --> 00:22:11,484
Speaker 2: an exception for this program or that program. And so

436
00:22:11,524 --> 00:22:14,124
Speaker 2: I think strategically like the notion of like ripping the

437
00:22:14,164 --> 00:22:16,124
Speaker 2: band aid off, and you know, if you're trying to.

438
00:22:16,084 --> 00:22:18,884
Speaker 1: Like this isn't This isn't ripping the band aid off.

439
00:22:18,924 --> 00:22:21,284
Speaker 1: This is cutting off the arm. And I think we

440
00:22:21,324 --> 00:22:24,964
Speaker 1: will see that if this actually holds, I am willing

441
00:22:25,004 --> 00:22:30,164
Speaker 1: to bet that research in the US, advancements in the US,

442
00:22:30,204 --> 00:22:33,124
Speaker 1: the US as an innovator in any field of science

443
00:22:33,244 --> 00:22:34,484
Speaker 1: is going to just go away.

444
00:22:34,604 --> 00:22:38,524
Speaker 3: Well, we're innovators because of the private sector. Mostly No,

445
00:22:38,884 --> 00:22:39,244
Speaker 3: we're in.

446
00:22:39,404 --> 00:22:41,764
Speaker 1: But you forget how much of the private sector is

447
00:22:41,764 --> 00:22:45,364
Speaker 1: done by academics who went into academia who have that knowledge.

448
00:22:45,404 --> 00:22:47,164
Speaker 1: People are going to stop. But if you know you

449
00:22:47,244 --> 00:22:49,324
Speaker 1: can't get funding and you can't do your research, why

450
00:22:49,364 --> 00:22:51,284
Speaker 1: in the world would you go into a PhD program?

451
00:22:51,444 --> 00:22:54,204
Speaker 1: Why would you run a lab? Right? People go from

452
00:22:54,244 --> 00:22:59,084
Speaker 1: academia to industry. Where does industry get its superstars from academia?

453
00:22:59,644 --> 00:23:02,004
Speaker 1: Where is that pipeline going to go? If we don't

454
00:23:02,044 --> 00:23:04,444
Speaker 1: have fund they are going to go abroad. They are

455
00:23:04,444 --> 00:23:06,564
Speaker 1: going to places where they can do their work and

456
00:23:06,604 --> 00:23:09,004
Speaker 1: they can do their research. So I think that you

457
00:23:09,084 --> 00:23:12,124
Speaker 1: need to think more strategically, more long term about this.

458
00:23:12,444 --> 00:23:14,284
Speaker 1: And I think you actually agree with me because you

459
00:23:14,364 --> 00:23:16,244
Speaker 1: agreed with me at the beginning and right now you're

460
00:23:16,284 --> 00:23:18,084
Speaker 1: just disagreeing with for the hell of it, which is

461
00:23:18,124 --> 00:23:19,444
Speaker 1: never a good reason to disagree with.

462
00:23:19,484 --> 00:23:21,484
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I think there's like I mean, a big

463
00:23:21,564 --> 00:23:25,044
Speaker 2: guy who people believe we're in mean reversion, right, And

464
00:23:25,124 --> 00:23:27,684
Speaker 2: like I don't think you can like take these three weeks,

465
00:23:27,724 --> 00:23:29,644
Speaker 2: which have been dramatic and have been in some ways

466
00:23:29,724 --> 00:23:33,524
Speaker 2: very effective for Trump, far more well planned from an

467
00:23:33,564 --> 00:23:35,404
Speaker 2: effectiveness standpoint than his first turn.

468
00:23:36,844 --> 00:23:40,244
Speaker 3: I know you feel like extractl like that forward, right.

469
00:23:40,244 --> 00:23:43,364
Speaker 1: Well I hope not. I hope not. But so, like

470
00:23:43,404 --> 00:23:46,404
Speaker 1: I said, like, it would be great if this were temporary,

471
00:23:46,604 --> 00:23:48,844
Speaker 1: you know, if we can't extrapolate it forward. But I'm

472
00:23:48,844 --> 00:23:50,924
Speaker 1: just saying, our question is what should people focus on

473
00:23:50,964 --> 00:23:53,404
Speaker 1: what's actually important and not distraction. I think that this

474
00:23:53,484 --> 00:23:56,044
Speaker 1: is important and not distraction. Right. People actually need to

475
00:23:56,044 --> 00:23:58,044
Speaker 1: focus on this so that it will reverse, right, so

476
00:23:58,084 --> 00:24:00,684
Speaker 1: that it will revert so that people realize that this

477
00:24:00,964 --> 00:24:03,604
Speaker 1: is an important issue, unlike a lot of other things.

478
00:24:03,604 --> 00:24:05,164
Speaker 1: So what we're talking about right now is how to

479
00:24:05,204 --> 00:24:08,484
Speaker 1: set priorities, how to focus on the things that actually matter.

480
00:24:08,724 --> 00:24:10,364
Speaker 1: And I think we both agree that this is something

481
00:24:10,404 --> 00:24:13,044
Speaker 1: that actually matters. Once again, the easier thing to do,

482
00:24:13,084 --> 00:24:14,884
Speaker 1: the lazier thing to do, is just look at the

483
00:24:14,884 --> 00:24:17,964
Speaker 1: talking points and be like, yeah, I agree with that, yeah,

484
00:24:18,044 --> 00:24:21,164
Speaker 1: cut bloat, yeah, like yeah, this is all good.

485
00:24:21,404 --> 00:24:21,564
Speaker 2: Right.

486
00:24:21,604 --> 00:24:25,364
Speaker 1: That's that's just a very lazy, intellectually way to look

487
00:24:25,364 --> 00:24:27,724
Speaker 1: at it, To look at the talking points that are

488
00:24:27,724 --> 00:24:29,644
Speaker 1: being thrust at us and just be like okay, yeah

489
00:24:29,644 --> 00:24:32,004
Speaker 1: that makes sense, of course, right, that's the that's the

490
00:24:32,044 --> 00:24:35,924
Speaker 1: point of talking points. So I think that as we prioritize,

491
00:24:35,924 --> 00:24:38,564
Speaker 1: as we think about what should we pay attention to

492
00:24:38,604 --> 00:24:44,364
Speaker 1: of the last three weeks, separation of powers, USAID, NIH

493
00:24:44,444 --> 00:24:46,564
Speaker 1: and other science funding. I think these are three things

494
00:24:46,564 --> 00:24:48,764
Speaker 1: that actually matter, and there are a bunch of things

495
00:24:48,804 --> 00:24:51,444
Speaker 1: that don't matter or that won't matter, or that will

496
00:24:51,484 --> 00:24:53,524
Speaker 1: be reversed. Like I don't actually think that the birthright

497
00:24:53,564 --> 00:24:57,524
Speaker 1: citizenship is that important because that's going to get blocked, right,

498
00:24:57,604 --> 00:24:59,524
Speaker 1: like that is. And if it doesn't get blocked, like

499
00:24:59,564 --> 00:25:03,284
Speaker 1: holy shit, then we have much bigger problems, right because

500
00:25:03,324 --> 00:25:04,564
Speaker 1: that's unconstitutional.

501
00:25:05,164 --> 00:25:05,324
Speaker 3: Yeah.

502
00:25:05,404 --> 00:25:07,764
Speaker 2: Look, I mean there's a you know, so I would

503
00:25:07,844 --> 00:25:11,884
Speaker 2: say that, you know, Trump has some degree of mandate

504
00:25:11,964 --> 00:25:15,844
Speaker 2: on immigration stuff and DEI stuff, and so that stuff's

505
00:25:15,844 --> 00:25:19,204
Speaker 2: not that's a president. It doesn't even be generating that

506
00:25:19,364 --> 00:25:23,084
Speaker 2: much outrage. Even some of the you know, tran stuff

507
00:25:23,124 --> 00:25:27,164
Speaker 2: seems to have a relatively muted reaction. I mean, I

508
00:25:27,204 --> 00:25:30,324
Speaker 2: don't know who's wrecking to anything really, right. It's heart

509
00:25:30,364 --> 00:25:33,404
Speaker 2: because there are these issues that are like cultural touchstones

510
00:25:33,404 --> 00:25:37,484
Speaker 2: that like you can read some mandate and have the

511
00:25:37,484 --> 00:25:39,324
Speaker 2: electorate voted, then you have these things that are like

512
00:25:39,324 --> 00:25:43,404
Speaker 2: these abstract, very bad things that people like you and

513
00:25:43,444 --> 00:25:46,604
Speaker 2: I might say, are the highest ev concerns marrier, right,

514
00:25:46,644 --> 00:25:49,884
Speaker 2: And then there's like a third bucket of like distractions

515
00:25:49,924 --> 00:25:51,204
Speaker 2: like the Elon Musk like.

516
00:25:52,644 --> 00:25:55,764
Speaker 3: Nazi or Italian where we're calling it.

517
00:25:56,124 --> 00:25:59,124
Speaker 2: Solute and just like the stupid shit Trump says from

518
00:25:59,164 --> 00:26:01,204
Speaker 2: day to day and the owning the lib stuff and

519
00:26:01,324 --> 00:26:04,364
Speaker 2: like you know, and it's like the problem is like

520
00:26:04,404 --> 00:26:06,124
Speaker 2: the most you know, the terroriffs are like.

521
00:26:07,644 --> 00:26:10,284
Speaker 3: Important economically, but.

522
00:26:10,324 --> 00:26:11,924
Speaker 2: Like the terrorists are like okay, if you want to

523
00:26:11,924 --> 00:26:13,644
Speaker 2: be ma Familian about it, then like let Trump do.

524
00:26:13,724 --> 00:26:17,924
Speaker 2: Let these terrorists and like fucking cause inflation, and fine,

525
00:26:17,924 --> 00:26:20,484
Speaker 2: you're gonna lose popularity, right, So it's like not like,

526
00:26:20,644 --> 00:26:22,084
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know if you want people like

527
00:26:22,124 --> 00:26:25,324
Speaker 2: marching in the streets against tariffs exactly.

528
00:26:25,964 --> 00:26:26,444
Speaker 3: It's hard to know.

529
00:26:26,524 --> 00:26:28,364
Speaker 2: I think they're playing I think they're playing a pretty

530
00:26:28,404 --> 00:26:34,564
Speaker 2: effective tactical game of like not giving Democrats things that

531
00:26:34,604 --> 00:26:34,964
Speaker 2: are like.

532
00:26:34,964 --> 00:26:37,084
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, they're crushing it big.

533
00:26:37,124 --> 00:26:39,004
Speaker 2: I mean, there are things that they're on the wrong

534
00:26:39,044 --> 00:26:40,964
Speaker 2: side of public opinion, but there are things that are

535
00:26:41,324 --> 00:26:43,644
Speaker 2: abstract and hard to actualize, right, and then things that

536
00:26:43,684 --> 00:26:45,804
Speaker 2: are right that are reached democrats. But it's just kind

537
00:26:45,844 --> 00:26:47,844
Speaker 2: of I don't know, it's been, it's been. You know,

538
00:26:47,884 --> 00:26:50,204
Speaker 2: what I would say for Demcrats is like it will

539
00:26:50,204 --> 00:26:53,084
Speaker 2: get worse for Trunk, It may get worse for people

540
00:26:53,084 --> 00:26:56,244
Speaker 2: who don't like the things Trump's doing. But like, you know,

541
00:26:56,884 --> 00:27:01,604
Speaker 2: he starts out less popular than any president except for

542
00:27:01,644 --> 00:27:03,724
Speaker 2: his first turn. Now it's a little bit of an

543
00:27:03,724 --> 00:27:06,324
Speaker 2: exception because like he was president before. It's kind of

544
00:27:06,324 --> 00:27:08,364
Speaker 2: being a continuation. So he is more popul I mean,

545
00:27:08,364 --> 00:27:10,844
Speaker 2: he is net popular now, right, but like that probably

546
00:27:10,884 --> 00:27:14,844
Speaker 2: won't be true in six months, nine months and having

547
00:27:14,884 --> 00:27:16,364
Speaker 2: little patience, you know, I mean, you know, I don't

548
00:27:16,364 --> 00:27:20,444
Speaker 2: think publishing like blame Trump for like planes literally falling

549
00:27:20,444 --> 00:27:23,484
Speaker 2: out of the sky two weeks into his term, but

550
00:27:23,604 --> 00:27:27,404
Speaker 2: they might two years into his turn. And like that's

551
00:27:27,444 --> 00:27:30,764
Speaker 2: a reasonable heuristic. It's actually pretty smart that, like, yeah,

552
00:27:30,804 --> 00:27:33,404
Speaker 2: the day you take over, it's probably not your.

553
00:27:33,324 --> 00:27:35,444
Speaker 3: Fault, but you know, after that it might be.

554
00:27:35,564 --> 00:27:40,124
Speaker 2: And so I don't know, he is spending his political

555
00:27:40,124 --> 00:27:43,404
Speaker 2: I mean, went less of Democrats is like spending have

556
00:27:43,444 --> 00:27:46,204
Speaker 2: a fucking game plan for the first one hundred days.

557
00:27:46,244 --> 00:27:48,884
Speaker 2: But although even then, right, a lot of things Biden

558
00:27:48,924 --> 00:27:52,124
Speaker 2: did in the first hundred days was like through both

559
00:27:52,164 --> 00:27:55,084
Speaker 2: policy and rhetoric, kind of open up the border a

560
00:27:55,124 --> 00:27:57,724
Speaker 2: lot more, and you know, pass a lot of executive

561
00:27:57,804 --> 00:28:02,324
Speaker 2: orders that included environmental regulations and racial equity regulations and

562
00:28:02,364 --> 00:28:04,524
Speaker 2: things like that later made the stimulus package is harder

563
00:28:04,564 --> 00:28:07,204
Speaker 2: to implement and slower. So like a lot of things

564
00:28:07,204 --> 00:28:09,124
Speaker 2: that were kind of hidden from the public eye wound

565
00:28:09,164 --> 00:28:13,604
Speaker 2: up costing Biden and Harris down the road. And so

566
00:28:13,644 --> 00:28:15,244
Speaker 2: maybe Democrats can take like a little bit of a

567
00:28:16,284 --> 00:28:19,004
Speaker 2: lesson from that, right that Trump is pushing a lot

568
00:28:19,004 --> 00:28:21,084
Speaker 2: of buttons, not knowing we're all about leads and the

569
00:28:21,124 --> 00:28:24,484
Speaker 2: consequences might not be clear until a year or two year,

570
00:28:24,524 --> 00:28:25,204
Speaker 2: four years from now.

571
00:28:25,244 --> 00:28:27,404
Speaker 3: But like he's running a lot of liability.

572
00:28:27,884 --> 00:28:31,164
Speaker 1: Okay, So it seems like we're both agreed that, you know,

573
00:28:31,204 --> 00:28:34,364
Speaker 1: the single most important thing is that the separation of

574
00:28:34,404 --> 00:28:38,324
Speaker 1: powers is eroding, is not being honored, and that this

575
00:28:38,484 --> 00:28:41,964
Speaker 1: is the thing that could actually wind up if it

576
00:28:42,004 --> 00:28:46,044
Speaker 1: goes too far, being very difficult, I'm not going to

577
00:28:46,084 --> 00:28:49,284
Speaker 1: say impossible, but very difficult to kind of roll back unravel.

578
00:28:49,564 --> 00:28:51,004
Speaker 1: This is the thing that if you are going to

579
00:28:51,004 --> 00:28:54,244
Speaker 1: pay attention to one thing, it's this right that we

580
00:28:54,724 --> 00:28:58,244
Speaker 1: need the separation of powers to be honored, USAI, d

581
00:28:58,444 --> 00:29:02,244
Speaker 1: NAH funding. All these things also important, but separation of powers.

582
00:29:02,244 --> 00:29:05,324
Speaker 1: If we're if we're gonna say one thing to focus on,

583
00:29:05,484 --> 00:29:06,204
Speaker 1: it's going to be that.

584
00:29:06,644 --> 00:29:08,284
Speaker 2: I agree, And then you know, in terms of like

585
00:29:08,924 --> 00:29:10,804
Speaker 2: what not to focus on. I mean, Trump has always

586
00:29:10,844 --> 00:29:14,324
Speaker 2: been very good at having distractions. I think some battles

587
00:29:14,324 --> 00:29:17,564
Speaker 2: were lost in public opinion with restection, like immigration and

588
00:29:17,604 --> 00:29:19,404
Speaker 2: things like that, and the goal there is probably to

589
00:29:19,444 --> 00:29:22,804
Speaker 2: try to rebuild public opinion from the ground.

590
00:29:23,444 --> 00:29:25,604
Speaker 3: Uh. But like, if there's any issue on which Trump

591
00:29:25,764 --> 00:29:29,844
Speaker 3: like had amendate, it's immigration and inflation, which is actually

592
00:29:29,884 --> 00:29:32,404
Speaker 3: kind of fucking up by implementing teriffs.

593
00:29:34,484 --> 00:29:37,884
Speaker 1: That is absolutely true. Also, egg prices are not doing

594
00:29:37,924 --> 00:29:44,964
Speaker 1: anyone any favors. Let's take a break and talk about housing.

595
00:29:59,524 --> 00:29:59,764
Speaker 2: Nate.

596
00:29:59,844 --> 00:30:04,084
Speaker 1: Last time we spoke, you were looking for an apartment

597
00:30:04,324 --> 00:30:06,804
Speaker 1: in New York City. First of all, wow, like I

598
00:30:06,844 --> 00:30:10,724
Speaker 1: never thought you would leave your apartment, So, so talk us

599
00:30:10,804 --> 00:30:13,044
Speaker 1: through that decision, how it's going.

600
00:30:13,124 --> 00:30:16,644
Speaker 2: Both of My landlord isn't listening to this. My partner

601
00:30:16,684 --> 00:30:23,604
Speaker 2: and I have always had these kind of unusual, funky spaces,

602
00:30:23,644 --> 00:30:25,444
Speaker 2: like about the Midwest. You're like kind of like having

603
00:30:25,524 --> 00:30:28,924
Speaker 2: our space, right, But like it's often in buildings that

604
00:30:29,124 --> 00:30:32,644
Speaker 2: like where the space is oddly laid out or where

605
00:30:32,644 --> 00:30:34,564
Speaker 2: the amenities aren't aren't great.

606
00:30:34,844 --> 00:30:36,644
Speaker 3: I know, we just had like I mean, the elevator

607
00:30:36,684 --> 00:30:37,524
Speaker 3: in our building.

608
00:30:37,244 --> 00:30:39,564
Speaker 2: Is broken half the time, and I don't want to

609
00:30:39,564 --> 00:30:41,444
Speaker 2: say where I live, but I'm not sure it's totally

610
00:30:41,484 --> 00:30:42,124
Speaker 2: up to code.

611
00:30:42,164 --> 00:30:43,604
Speaker 3: Right, we have the water out for.

612
00:30:45,204 --> 00:30:47,804
Speaker 2: Three days in the middle of February where the pipe

613
00:30:47,844 --> 00:30:49,964
Speaker 2: is froze and things like that, and like it just

614
00:30:50,644 --> 00:30:54,844
Speaker 2: someone of my big gto theories is like you are

615
00:30:55,004 --> 00:30:59,244
Speaker 2: paying for everything involved in your apartment bundle, whether you

616
00:30:59,404 --> 00:31:01,844
Speaker 2: like use it or not. Right, So like if you

617
00:31:01,844 --> 00:31:05,044
Speaker 2: were paying a big premium to have like a large

618
00:31:05,044 --> 00:31:08,804
Speaker 2: space and you don't need all that space, then then

619
00:31:09,244 --> 00:31:12,604
Speaker 2: you probably wanted to downsize. Either you're saving money or

620
00:31:13,644 --> 00:31:15,124
Speaker 2: you know, in our case, I don't think the goals

621
00:31:15,164 --> 00:31:17,564
Speaker 2: save money, but just to have like to stop creating

622
00:31:17,604 --> 00:31:20,564
Speaker 2: all these amenities for for a space because.

623
00:31:20,404 --> 00:31:21,724
Speaker 3: Ourmenities are not very good.

624
00:31:21,764 --> 00:31:24,444
Speaker 2: And also just like there's shit like the fact that

625
00:31:24,524 --> 00:31:28,244
Speaker 2: like because the building is pre war and old, like

626
00:31:28,324 --> 00:31:31,364
Speaker 2: our heating bill is really freaking expensive because it's like

627
00:31:31,484 --> 00:31:34,564
Speaker 2: very inefficient to like heat and cool the building and

628
00:31:34,644 --> 00:31:37,524
Speaker 2: things and things like that. Right, if you have days

629
00:31:37,524 --> 00:31:38,964
Speaker 2: where the water isn't working for to stay in hotel,

630
00:31:39,004 --> 00:31:40,404
Speaker 2: I mean, you can deduct that from your rent, right,

631
00:31:40,404 --> 00:31:42,284
Speaker 2: But like that's that's a big so. And also like

632
00:31:42,324 --> 00:31:46,684
Speaker 2: we feel like having a new neighborhood is exciting. There's

633
00:31:46,764 --> 00:31:49,004
Speaker 2: like some degree of diminishing returns. We've been in like

634
00:31:49,044 --> 00:31:53,964
Speaker 2: the same place for gosh twelve years now, and like

635
00:31:54,004 --> 00:31:57,644
Speaker 2: New York's a big city, right, neither of us work

636
00:31:58,524 --> 00:32:02,644
Speaker 2: at a permanent location, and so therefore, like you know,

637
00:32:02,684 --> 00:32:06,724
Speaker 2: that should make you relatively indifferent toward where you live

638
00:32:06,764 --> 00:32:09,084
Speaker 2: within reason. I mean literally, like I kind of like

639
00:32:09,204 --> 00:32:11,084
Speaker 2: I just like made like a little math of like

640
00:32:11,244 --> 00:32:16,164
Speaker 2: you know, fifteen points that we visit often, right, from

641
00:32:16,164 --> 00:32:20,044
Speaker 2: like friends places in Brooklyn, to like our favorite restaurants

642
00:32:20,084 --> 00:32:22,884
Speaker 2: like the Dentists, to like, you know, sports arenas. The

643
00:32:22,964 --> 00:32:25,564
Speaker 2: airport's really important. I travel a lot, and so like, sure,

644
00:32:25,684 --> 00:32:27,404
Speaker 2: are you more convenient to at least one or two

645
00:32:27,444 --> 00:32:30,404
Speaker 2: of the three major metro area airports in New York.

646
00:32:30,444 --> 00:32:32,084
Speaker 2: That kind of thing is important, and we kind of

647
00:32:32,084 --> 00:32:37,844
Speaker 2: discover that like actually, like basically anywhere within the lower

648
00:32:37,844 --> 00:32:40,604
Speaker 2: half of Manhattan is kind of equally convenient to the

649
00:32:40,644 --> 00:32:42,644
Speaker 2: places we need to go, and so therefore go ahead

650
00:32:42,684 --> 00:32:46,324
Speaker 2: and like tack the neighborhood that you might find interesting.

651
00:32:46,364 --> 00:32:48,204
Speaker 2: We've been gravitating a little bit toward the east side.

652
00:32:48,244 --> 00:32:51,684
Speaker 2: I don't want to jinx anything by saying properties that

653
00:32:51,724 --> 00:32:52,884
Speaker 2: we may or may not be in the midst of

654
00:32:52,924 --> 00:32:53,724
Speaker 2: applying to now.

655
00:32:53,724 --> 00:32:55,484
Speaker 3: And this is just for a rental, by the way,

656
00:32:55,484 --> 00:32:56,204
Speaker 3: we're not buying.

657
00:32:57,204 --> 00:32:59,204
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's trying to figure out what things do

658
00:32:59,284 --> 00:33:03,164
Speaker 2: we actually value and then and then what things do

659
00:33:03,204 --> 00:33:06,684
Speaker 2: other people value that we don't value as much? Right,

660
00:33:06,764 --> 00:33:10,724
Speaker 2: Like we looked like one place in cell See it's

661
00:33:10,764 --> 00:33:14,604
Speaker 2: like this ground floor apartment kind of this brown stone

662
00:33:14,644 --> 00:33:20,844
Speaker 2: that has like very attractive dining living room area with

663
00:33:20,884 --> 00:33:24,204
Speaker 2: like an outdoor courtyard, right, and then you go down

664
00:33:24,284 --> 00:33:27,484
Speaker 2: to the base where the bedroom's are office hour and

665
00:33:27,524 --> 00:33:29,364
Speaker 2: it's kind of dreary, right, But you can imagine like

666
00:33:29,804 --> 00:33:31,564
Speaker 2: for a certain type of person that like likes to

667
00:33:31,604 --> 00:33:34,284
Speaker 2: have a lot of like house parties, right, And like

668
00:33:34,324 --> 00:33:38,164
Speaker 2: we've arrived in a certain kind of perfect Chelsea flat

669
00:33:38,204 --> 00:33:41,444
Speaker 2: for this like exact purpose, but it's not as nice

670
00:33:41,484 --> 00:33:43,964
Speaker 2: in terms of like the living areas and things like that.

671
00:33:44,004 --> 00:33:45,644
Speaker 3: Which is kind of where we spend most of our time.

672
00:33:45,684 --> 00:33:48,604
Speaker 2: So it's like, if that's someone else's dream, you know,

673
00:33:48,644 --> 00:33:51,844
Speaker 2: you don't want to pay for someone else's dream because

674
00:33:51,844 --> 00:33:53,284
Speaker 2: it's factored into like the market.

675
00:33:53,484 --> 00:33:53,844
Speaker 3: Pridace.

676
00:33:54,044 --> 00:33:55,804
Speaker 1: Now that makes sense, I think. I think it's a

677
00:33:55,844 --> 00:33:58,444
Speaker 1: really important point to say, like what are my most

678
00:33:58,484 --> 00:34:00,804
Speaker 1: important things? What do I want to pay for? What

679
00:34:00,884 --> 00:34:04,004
Speaker 1: do I not care about paying for? Otherwise you might

680
00:34:04,124 --> 00:34:08,004
Speaker 1: end up in uh, you know, nightmare situations or paying

681
00:34:08,244 --> 00:34:10,244
Speaker 1: for an apartment that you don't really that you're not

682
00:34:10,244 --> 00:34:10,644
Speaker 1: happy in.

683
00:34:10,764 --> 00:34:10,924
Speaker 3: You know.

684
00:34:10,964 --> 00:34:13,244
Speaker 2: Another example is, you know, we thought briefly about like

685
00:34:13,324 --> 00:34:15,564
Speaker 2: looking at a place in Miami. This is kind of

686
00:34:15,604 --> 00:34:17,684
Speaker 2: during the COVID era where Miami kind of came back

687
00:34:17,724 --> 00:34:21,924
Speaker 2: online before and now I'm mostly positive with somewhat able

688
00:34:22,044 --> 00:34:24,204
Speaker 2: feelings toward Miami, but we were into you know, Miami

689
00:34:24,324 --> 00:34:28,084
Speaker 2: things like a lot of middle aged gains, I guess,

690
00:34:28,964 --> 00:34:29,124
Speaker 2: you know.

691
00:34:29,164 --> 00:34:30,004
Speaker 3: And at first we.

692
00:34:30,044 --> 00:34:32,724
Speaker 2: Had a friend who lives in Coconut Grow, which is

693
00:34:32,764 --> 00:34:35,244
Speaker 2: a very nice community, right, but like it's very desirable

694
00:34:35,284 --> 00:34:38,684
Speaker 2: because like it has by far the better school options

695
00:34:38,684 --> 00:34:40,684
Speaker 2: in terms of think both public and private schools and

696
00:34:40,804 --> 00:34:42,324
Speaker 2: other parts of Miami.

697
00:34:42,444 --> 00:34:44,084
Speaker 3: So if you don't have kids in school, then like

698
00:34:44,204 --> 00:34:46,444
Speaker 3: it's huge. You really really really would have.

699
00:34:46,324 --> 00:34:49,324
Speaker 2: To love Coconut Grove in order to like to pay

700
00:34:49,324 --> 00:34:52,924
Speaker 2: this premium for a service that you don't need, Right.

701
00:34:53,124 --> 00:34:58,044
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I think that that's really important and something

702
00:34:58,084 --> 00:35:01,644
Speaker 1: that people, by the way, underestimate how much of a

703
00:35:01,684 --> 00:35:04,564
Speaker 1: toll it takes emotionally psychologically. There's a lot of research

704
00:35:04,564 --> 00:35:08,404
Speaker 1: on this. To commute long distances, right, it's actually very

705
00:35:08,484 --> 00:35:11,764
Speaker 1: not good for So that is something that I would

706
00:35:11,804 --> 00:35:14,564
Speaker 1: absolutely say, like, especially somewhere like New York, do you

707
00:35:14,844 --> 00:35:18,364
Speaker 1: take that into account? Schools are huge. So the apartment,

708
00:35:18,764 --> 00:35:21,524
Speaker 1: we looked at apartments I won't say the exact neighborhood

709
00:35:21,564 --> 00:35:23,804
Speaker 1: where I live, but we looked at apartments that are

710
00:35:23,804 --> 00:35:26,804
Speaker 1: literally a block apart, but they're in two different school zones.

711
00:35:27,324 --> 00:35:31,804
Speaker 1: And the price difference was insane, right, Like it was

712
00:35:32,484 --> 00:35:35,564
Speaker 1: an order of magnitude, and we don't have kids, Like

713
00:35:35,604 --> 00:35:38,444
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. I was like screw this, right,

714
00:35:38,564 --> 00:35:42,244
Speaker 1: like I do that, but it's one block apart, literally,

715
00:35:43,084 --> 00:35:45,764
Speaker 1: same size, same everything. And so I think that things

716
00:35:45,764 --> 00:35:49,564
Speaker 1: like that are actually quite important and can be game

717
00:35:49,684 --> 00:35:52,804
Speaker 1: changers if you're looking at an apartment in a smart

718
00:35:52,804 --> 00:35:55,244
Speaker 1: way I have had. I don't know if you've had

719
00:35:55,284 --> 00:35:59,044
Speaker 1: any nightmare apartments, but I've had one nightmare apartment where

720
00:35:59,564 --> 00:36:02,004
Speaker 1: should have known, right, if something is priced in a

721
00:36:02,004 --> 00:36:04,844
Speaker 1: way that makes no sense, there's probably something that you

722
00:36:04,924 --> 00:36:10,284
Speaker 1: don't realize. So I was able to rent two floor

723
00:36:10,764 --> 00:36:14,684
Speaker 1: garden duplex parlor garden duplex in the West Village on

724
00:36:14,764 --> 00:36:18,044
Speaker 1: West eleventh Street within my budget. Like I was like,

725
00:36:18,084 --> 00:36:21,844
Speaker 1: holy shit, right, Like, you can never you can never

726
00:36:21,884 --> 00:36:24,324
Speaker 1: afford something like this. It turns out that the building

727
00:36:24,364 --> 00:36:28,404
Speaker 1: was basically condemned. That we there were mice in the

728
00:36:28,444 --> 00:36:33,964
Speaker 1: walls and just like running everywhere. There was no insulation.

729
00:36:34,244 --> 00:36:37,724
Speaker 1: So in the winter, like the wind just like literally

730
00:36:38,644 --> 00:36:43,444
Speaker 1: went through the apartment. There was mold everywhere. So we

731
00:36:43,484 --> 00:36:47,284
Speaker 1: did an air quality check and like realize that, holy shit,

732
00:36:47,444 --> 00:36:49,404
Speaker 1: like the stuff we're breathing in is really not good.

733
00:36:49,844 --> 00:36:53,444
Speaker 1: And then the building ended up being gutted after you know,

734
00:36:53,524 --> 00:36:56,844
Speaker 1: we and our neighbors left. This was before I wrote

735
00:36:56,844 --> 00:36:59,364
Speaker 1: the Confidence Game. But if something is too good to

736
00:36:59,404 --> 00:37:02,004
Speaker 1: be true, it probably is, so.

737
00:37:01,964 --> 00:37:02,844
Speaker 3: Do your due diligence.

738
00:37:02,924 --> 00:37:04,484
Speaker 2: Yeah, and in the reverse, but I mean, sometimes people

739
00:37:04,484 --> 00:37:06,604
Speaker 2: print something on the market and just overreesumate the demand

740
00:37:06,684 --> 00:37:08,324
Speaker 2: for it, so you can have things that are priced

741
00:37:08,964 --> 00:37:12,964
Speaker 2: the rationally high, but like there's not really bargains relative

742
00:37:13,004 --> 00:37:15,924
Speaker 2: to the overall demand function of the city.

743
00:37:16,404 --> 00:37:20,084
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and I think that it's also the case where

744
00:37:20,884 --> 00:37:23,444
Speaker 1: you're probably not going to be able to time the

745
00:37:23,484 --> 00:37:26,684
Speaker 1: market right. You will either get lucky or unlucky, because,

746
00:37:26,964 --> 00:37:30,844
Speaker 1: especially in New York, places don't sit around. Sometimes they

747
00:37:30,844 --> 00:37:32,764
Speaker 1: do right. It could be in a really horrible market,

748
00:37:32,964 --> 00:37:37,404
Speaker 1: but oftentimes the best case is to just go for it.

749
00:37:37,444 --> 00:37:40,524
Speaker 1: My two best rental apartments that were both tiny, but

750
00:37:40,604 --> 00:37:43,324
Speaker 1: like they were just ridiculous deals that enabled me to

751
00:37:43,364 --> 00:37:45,044
Speaker 1: live in parts of New York that I never would

752
00:37:45,084 --> 00:37:47,724
Speaker 1: have been able to afford as a twenty one year

753
00:37:47,724 --> 00:37:51,404
Speaker 1: old moving to the city. I saw them before they

754
00:37:51,444 --> 00:37:53,404
Speaker 1: hit the market. Literally, I was the first person to

755
00:37:53,404 --> 00:37:56,204
Speaker 1: see both of them. One the guy reached out to

756
00:37:56,204 --> 00:37:58,724
Speaker 1: me because I had posted on Craigslist. This was back

757
00:37:58,764 --> 00:38:01,684
Speaker 1: in the day when Craigslist was a big thing. I

758
00:38:01,764 --> 00:38:04,604
Speaker 1: was a senior in college. Made a posting saying, hey, like,

759
00:38:04,644 --> 00:38:09,284
Speaker 1: I'm does anyone know of a you know, studio apartment

760
00:38:09,724 --> 00:38:12,524
Speaker 1: in the West Village. This is my budget, and this

761
00:38:12,564 --> 00:38:14,204
Speaker 1: guy just reached out. He's like it's not on the

762
00:38:14,244 --> 00:38:16,764
Speaker 1: market yet. But and I ended up getting a bus,

763
00:38:16,764 --> 00:38:21,804
Speaker 1: like the Chinatown bus from Boston to New York to

764
00:38:21,844 --> 00:38:25,044
Speaker 1: see this apartment and just gave him money right away

765
00:38:25,324 --> 00:38:27,164
Speaker 1: and ended up signing a lease that was, you know,

766
00:38:27,404 --> 00:38:30,204
Speaker 1: started two weeks before I needed it to start. But

767
00:38:30,404 --> 00:38:33,804
Speaker 1: like I never the apartment was one thousand dollars a

768
00:38:33,804 --> 00:38:40,124
Speaker 1: month in the West Village fifty in the West Village,

769
00:38:40,844 --> 00:38:44,244
Speaker 1: in the West Village. Yes, it was on Perry Street.

770
00:38:44,484 --> 00:38:47,484
Speaker 1: The guy who actually it was, yeah, Perry, and like

771
00:38:47,524 --> 00:38:50,964
Speaker 1: it was premium. It was between Bleeker and Hudson, Like

772
00:38:51,164 --> 00:38:54,244
Speaker 1: just absolutely premium location. It was the parlor floor, so

773
00:38:54,324 --> 00:38:56,564
Speaker 1: huge windows. It was tiny, It was less than one

774
00:38:56,604 --> 00:39:00,684
Speaker 1: hundred square feet. It was ninety square feet payoff. Yes,

775
00:39:00,804 --> 00:39:03,684
Speaker 1: it was ninety square feet, so that was the trade off.

776
00:39:03,764 --> 00:39:06,604
Speaker 1: I lived in a glorified walk in closet, but man,

777
00:39:06,644 --> 00:39:09,284
Speaker 1: I was happy to wake up in that walk in

778
00:39:09,444 --> 00:39:12,204
Speaker 1: closet every single day. Yeah, my bed was lofted right

779
00:39:12,284 --> 00:39:15,244
Speaker 1: under the ceiling. And I had like this rickety ladder

780
00:39:15,244 --> 00:39:17,884
Speaker 1: that I had to climb up to make it up, like.

781
00:39:17,844 --> 00:39:19,564
Speaker 3: A capsule hotel as I called them.

782
00:39:19,404 --> 00:39:22,644
Speaker 1: In Asia, exactly exactly. But I had a full bathroom.

783
00:39:22,764 --> 00:39:24,924
Speaker 1: It had a little kitchen like it wasn't. It was

784
00:39:24,964 --> 00:39:27,604
Speaker 1: all in the one room right like it's it was

785
00:39:27,604 --> 00:39:30,484
Speaker 1: a mini fridge, you know, it wasn't. But it had

786
00:39:30,524 --> 00:39:32,964
Speaker 1: a stove that had like, it had everything I needed.

787
00:39:33,604 --> 00:39:35,364
Speaker 1: And I was you know, I was twenty one years

788
00:39:35,404 --> 00:39:36,964
Speaker 1: old and I was in the West Village and I

789
00:39:37,004 --> 00:39:39,364
Speaker 1: was so thrilled to be able to have that apartment.

790
00:39:39,484 --> 00:39:41,204
Speaker 3: You're baking in the bread catches on fire.

791
00:39:41,364 --> 00:39:44,004
Speaker 2: I mean, but look if if you don't need space

792
00:39:44,044 --> 00:39:45,124
Speaker 2: and don't pay for space and.

793
00:39:45,084 --> 00:39:46,884
Speaker 1: Like, And at that point, I was still working in

794
00:39:46,884 --> 00:39:48,484
Speaker 1: an office. I wasn't working from home.

795
00:39:48,724 --> 00:39:48,884
Speaker 2: Right.

796
00:39:48,924 --> 00:39:51,684
Speaker 1: This is when I was working in advertising as a copywriter,

797
00:39:52,524 --> 00:39:55,604
Speaker 1: and I was very not happy at my job. But hey,

798
00:39:55,724 --> 00:39:58,444
Speaker 1: I had a great launch pad. Good luck night. I

799
00:39:58,484 --> 00:40:00,324
Speaker 1: hope that you are able to get one of the

800
00:40:00,324 --> 00:40:03,804
Speaker 1: apartments that you want to and I look forward. I

801
00:40:03,844 --> 00:40:07,524
Speaker 1: would look forward to a housewarming in a wonderful neighborhood

802
00:40:07,524 --> 00:40:09,324
Speaker 1: that you are excited about and that you get to

803
00:40:09,444 --> 00:40:17,004
Speaker 1: to explore. Absolutely, Maria, let us know what you think

804
00:40:17,004 --> 00:40:19,884
Speaker 1: of the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business

805
00:40:19,964 --> 00:40:23,204
Speaker 1: at pushkin dot fm. And by the way, if you're

806
00:40:23,204 --> 00:40:26,284
Speaker 1: a Pushkin Plus subscriber, we have some bonus content for you.

807
00:40:26,764 --> 00:40:29,884
Speaker 1: We'll be answering a listener question each week that's coming

808
00:40:29,964 --> 00:40:31,164
Speaker 1: up right after the credits.

809
00:40:31,404 --> 00:40:34,644
Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for

810
00:40:34,844 --> 00:40:36,164
Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month.

811
00:40:36,204 --> 00:40:37,004
Speaker 3: What a nice price.

812
00:40:37,364 --> 00:40:40,124
Speaker 2: You get access to all that premium content and ad

813
00:40:40,164 --> 00:40:42,924
Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows.

814
00:40:43,164 --> 00:40:46,604
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.

815
00:40:45,884 --> 00:40:48,244
Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co

816
00:40:48,324 --> 00:40:52,364
Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced

817
00:40:52,364 --> 00:40:55,884
Speaker 2: by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang.

818
00:40:56,444 --> 00:40:59,484
Speaker 2: Sally Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is

819
00:40:59,524 --> 00:41:01,964
Speaker 2: Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.

820
00:41:02,524 --> 00:41:04,924
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us

821
00:41:04,924 --> 00:41:07,284
Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much

822
00:41:07,324 --> 00:41:07,804
Speaker 1: for tuning in.

823
00:41:10,844 --> 00:41:14,924
Speaker 2: Spat, Fumble and FA