WEBVTT - Dangerous Time For U.S. As Trump Guts Defense: Admiral Stavridis 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day, 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.400 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.239 and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, there's been a lot 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:25.320 of movement and the senior leadership of the U. S military. Yesterday, 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:29.840 Defense Secretary Esper was terminated by President Trump, and today 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:34.440 political reporting that the Pentagon's acting policy chief resigned today 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:36.760 after falling out of favor with the White House. What 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:39.760 does its mean for our leadership of our military. There's 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:42.760 absolutely no one better to have this discussion with than 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:46.720 retired Navy Admiral James Tarvitis, former military commander of NATO 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.639 and a Bloomberg opinion columnists Adam Well, thanks so much 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:52.879 for joining us here. Let's start right there. Lots of turnover, 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:56.120 starting at the top with our Secretary Defense. What is 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.840 your take? There's no reason to do this kind of 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:04.400 decapitation of the Department of Defense while we're in an 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:08.680 inherently unsettled period of a transition. And let me tell 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.280 you three things that really worried me. One is that 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:16.200 the Secretary of Defense is very tactically involved. He or 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:20.640 she is someone who makes the crucial individual decisions about 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.960 what unit is going to deploy to Afghanistan, and we've 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:27.560 got troops in combat all over the world. Number Two, 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:31.400 at the operational level, kind of the theater level, he 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.479 or she is a person who makes decisions about should 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.360 the carrier battlegroup go to the Arabian gulfer to the 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:41.320 South China Sea. And number three, strategically, the job of 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:43.959 the Secretary of Defense is to work with our allies 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:47.960 to guard the nuclear code. So what's happened is we've 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:52.160 fired the current Secretary of Defense, who by the way, 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:56.240 is the fourth one in four years, and they brought 0:01:56.280 --> 0:02:01.040 in a retired Army colonel. He's not qualified for the 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:05.520 job remotely, and his name is Chris Miller, and he's 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:07.720 going to have to try and learn the job and 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.560 presumably do the job for the next seventy one days. 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:16.440 It's dangerous. Yes, this particular person who resigned wrote a 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:18.919 letter of resignation saying, now, as ever, our long term 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:22.200 success depends on adhering to the US Constitution, all public 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:26.480 servants swear to support and defend political reporting that Anderson 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:30.919 had clashed with White House personnel and that there is 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.680 expected to be several departures in the wake of Esper's firing. 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.919 I mean, how how got it out could the Pentagon 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:42.040 be by the time we know, you know exactly when 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:45.120 President Biden is going to take office, If indeed it 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.480 is a President Biden, I think we're going to see 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:52.919 this kind of bleeding of talent across the entire administration. 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:56.240 A lot of people have been hanging on waiting for 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.640 the election. I think the majority of these folks would 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:04.480 be will link to stay and have a reasonable sensible transition. 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:06.480 And by the way, I've been personally involved in a 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:11.360 number of these transitions at very high levels in the Pentagon. Normally, um, 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:14.280 despite the rank or of an election, the two sides 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:18.480 get together because everyone knows, especially in the Pentagon, it's 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:22.440 about our national security. It's bigger than Republicans and Democrats. 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.040 The way that doesn't seem to be how this is 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:29.480 trending at the moment, and it is very concerning, Admiral, 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:31.800 I'm sure you still have a plenty of contacts with 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.360 the in the Pentagon. What is the thought coming out 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.920 of the Pentagon of what perhaps they perceive President Trump's 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:42.280 strategy or endgame here? Does he have one? Um, I 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:44.920 don't think you can use the word Trump and strategy 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.040 in the same sentence, and he would probably be proud 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:52.600 of that. He's a transactional player. He's someone who is 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:57.320 famously instinctive, operates from his gut, and at the moment, 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:00.680 his gut is upset because he lost the allife. Let's 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:03.960 be frank about what's happened here. Um, I'll give you 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:06.400 the good news if I can, Paul and Bonnie. It's 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:12.960 that the uniformed military will uniformly, uh park this off 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:16.400 to the side. They look at this as the civilian 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.320 leadership is in turmoil. But I assure you, people like 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:23.400 General Mark Millie, the Chairman, and the Joint Chiefs, all 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:26.560 of the chiefs of Defense, and all the way down 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:30.040 to the most junior sailors and airmen and greens and 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:34.200 soldiers board deployed, they just parked this off to the side. 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.360 They keep their eye on the mission in front of us. 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:40.880 They'll keep us safe. But boy, we do them a disservice, 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:45.279 and we dishonor their volunteer spirit and their sense of 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:48.920 mission when we let things just dissolved like this, it's 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.880 it's a bad day for our national defense. Yeah. Morell 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:55.280 is not going to be buoyed by this. Political is 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:58.040 reporting that this potentially paves the way for Anthony Tata 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:00.880 to take over the policy shop, so that the policy 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:04.520 part of the Pentagon. Let's say, do you know this man? 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:11.159 I do. He's a retired one star general. He had 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:15.359 a respectable career in yarmed forces. Um. He is someone 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:20.200 who has been a Trump loyalist throughout the campaign of 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:26.160 sixteen and has been a Fox News commentator. He's extremely conservative. Um. 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:29.200 The administration has been trying to get him confirmed, but 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:31.719 that's been very difficult because of the whole series of 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:36.080 inflammatory statements he has made over the years. Um. He 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:41.000 is not the kind of balanced, uh, centrist that is 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:45.000 necessary in a job like that, especially during a transition period. 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:48.520 So unfortunately, I think this is not going to be 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:52.400 a healthful choice. He's a partisan. We don't need partisanship 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.840 right now. Admiral, from your experience, what do you believe 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:02.000 our adversaries, whether it be Russia, China, Iran, North Korea. 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:04.920 What is their view of what's happening right now? What 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:09.000 strictly within the Pentagon. Yeah, I'll give you two words. 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:16.400 High fives, UM in Moscow, Uh, Beijing, shun Yang, Kran, Caracas, Havana. 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:20.240 This is exactly what our opponents hoped for. Is this 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:25.800 kind of turbulence. They feel as though we're taking our 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.400 eye off the ball. It opens the door for all 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:34.960 kinds of mischievous behavior by Iran and the Arabian Gulf 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:37.320 or Kim jong Na and this would be an ideal 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:41.120 time for him to launch another long range intercontinental ballistic 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:47.600 missile UM. Overall, this is greeted very positively and frankly. 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:54.000 Election interference both in and is real, UM, But it 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:58.240 was less about doing anything for Donald Trump. It was 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:03.599 all about creating vision in our society. So let us hope, 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:07.880 and I know this sounds like an extremely negative interview 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.760 and it is, but let us hope that UM, as 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.840 we get through this transition, that the two sides can 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:18.640 come together and work through this because these are these 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.840 are big issues and it is a dangerous moment for 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:26.240 America in the world. But our adversaries know that too, Right, Admiral. 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:29.720 I mean, they know that President Trump is potentially on 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:31.320 the way out of this point, and so if there 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:33.200 were to be an attack launched, it might be a 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:36.080 very dangerous time for them to do that because there 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:41.640 might be you know, an an unequal retaliation. Um, You've 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:46.520 got it right that this kind of uh, destabilizing moment 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.920 can cut both ways. It makes the calculus harder for 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:52.640 our opponents. But what I would argue, Vanni is the 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:56.120 dangerous not so much of a massive strategic level attack. 0:07:56.640 --> 0:08:01.560 It's that in this period when for apps, opponents would 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:06.440 feel as though our military are intelligence services were distracted 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.240 and somewhat decapitated. And by the way, we are to 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:13.040 recognize their rumors that the CIA direct when the FBI 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:17.040 director maybe fired, we are to recognize that, um, there 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:23.040 is room for quiet, deleterious behavior. That's what concerns me. Admiral. 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:25.800 Thank you. It's always illuminating to speak with you. Admiral 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.880 James Stefrida's US Navy admiral former military commander of NATO. 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:37.760 Oral arguments going on right now at the Supreme Court Court, 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:40.880 shaped by President Trump, of course, hearing a challenge to 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:43.199 the Affordable Care Act and in the last few minutes 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:45.840 we're here in Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice spread 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:48.480 Common are both saying they're inclined to leave the rest 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:51.120 of the law intact even if Republic and Challenger is 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:55.079 succeeded in validating the so called individual mandate. Let's bring 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:59.480 in Bloomberg legal analyst and host of Bloomberg Law, June Grasso. June, 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:01.480 I know been keeping an eye on what's going on 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:03.720 right now at the Supreme Courtinate. Where are we beyond 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:09.280 what I've just outlined. Well, the argument started with a 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:12.599 standing question, and this is a legal question as to 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.280 whether or not the states that are challenging this and 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:19.199 the plaintiffs challenging this have what's called a stake in 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.640 the outcome, were they injured? And a lot of the 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:25.760 justices were questioning whether the states here really had standing 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.240 to even bring this lawsuit. So that was the first barrier, 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:31.920 so to speak. There was very little talk about the 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.960 merits of it, because a lot of the justices wanted 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.280 to jump from that right to whether it was severable. 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.840 And as you said, two of the justices, the Chief 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:45.920 Justice and Justice Kavanaugh, came out really strongly saying that 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:49.360 in their opinion this was a severable thing. So that 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.400 that means that if they can take away that one 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:54.319 part of the law, they could leave the rest of 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.560 the law standing and that would give them that would 0:09:56.559 --> 0:10:01.439 give him five votes for severability. So June, I think 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.439 the summary here is are they going to throughout the 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:08.559 entire Obamacare or just certain aspects of it? If you 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.199 can summarize that for us, I'd be helpful, alright, So 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:14.840 that's sever ability. The question is whether so they're challenging 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:18.120 this one part of the law. They're saying because Congress 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.319 zeroed out the tax penalty and left the mandate in 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:24.839 with no practical consequences, then they have to strike down 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:27.320 the whole law. That's that's the opinion of the Trump 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:31.640 administration and the Republican States here. The comeback to that is, no, 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:33.800 you don't have to set sever out the whole law. 0:10:33.800 --> 0:10:35.040 You don't have to throw out the whole law. You 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.440 could just take out that one provision of the law 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:40.360 and leave the law standing. And you know, the Court 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:44.560 in its precedence has done this several times. And you heard, uh, 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:48.679 Chief Justice John Roberts really going at one of the 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.840 Texas Listitor General who is up, still up now, I think, 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.040 and the Texas Lisitor General and he basically said to him, 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:56.760 I took some notes. One second. Let me just get 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.840 he said the mandate was critical. Now everything is I'm 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.720 are He said, well, it's hard for me to argue 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:05.559 that Congress intended the law to fall and didn't even 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.560 try to repeal the Act. Why wouldn't Congress have repealed 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:10.440 the Act? So that's the whole thing. If they wanted 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.120 the law to fall, why wouldn't they just have taken 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.240 the Act away? Which they didn't. They just took away 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.560 the individual mandate. Yeah, I mean, Kabo, there was conflicting, 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.440 you know, messages even from the White House right about 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:24.560 allowing existing conditions and then taking away the individual Monday, 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:27.400 and there was so many different messages. But that's the 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.040 point here, right, if you take away the mandate, if 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.760 you excise the mandate and the words of Brett Kavanaugh, 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.640 then the whole law is in trouble anyway, because it 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:41.920 sort of depends on everybody paying into it. Right. No, Actually, 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.320 I mean they didn't really go into it that way. 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:46.679 What they look at is right now they're saying, look, 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:50.480 the individual mandate doesn't matter. Because the laws working without it, 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:54.400 people are buying insurance. As v really Donald Varili, who 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.480 was a former Solicitor general, as he argued, he said 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.240 that you know the mandate it worked without it was 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.079 a carat and a stick thing initially for Congress to say, 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.160 you have to pay this text to get this and 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.720 we have to get this law rolling. But now they 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.400 found out that they don't need the stick because it's 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.320 working without it. So what they're saying is you don't 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:16.280 need this mandate to let the law work. And what 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:20.040 Justice Kavanan Roberts are saying, yes, we can excise out this, 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.280 we can take that little part out of the law 0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:26.240 and the law still stands. And you know, uh, Justice 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.079 Brier really came on strong with the Texas Solicitor General 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.520 and he put all these examples forwards. Supposed, you know, 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.319 in the in the during the war, Congress said by 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.319 bonds in law, suppose Congress has planned a tree in 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.800 law or clean up the yar in law in law, 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:44.880 but there's no penalty for doing any of that. Well, 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.040 a you're gonna say that all of those laws are 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.640 unconstitutional because there's no penalty attached. And a lot of 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.920 the justices came out with that also, the Chief Justice 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.160 and Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Kavanaugh said, suppose you 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:01.520 had your required to have uh American flag flying, but 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.280 there's no penalty if you don't. Does that mean that, 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:06.720 you know, you have to take down the entire law. 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:09.680 So I think that most of the Justices are heading 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:13.480 toward the idea that even if there is standing, which 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.079 there's a question of whether or not they're standing, that 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.880 still they wouldn't throw the entire law out June. Give 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:22.160 us a sense of timing here. This is arguably one 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:24.760 of the more important cases in front of the Supreme Court. 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:28.760 When should we expect the ruling, Well, I would say 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:33.160 around June. You'd expect a ruling in normal times, unless 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.960 the Justices decide for some reason to speed this up. 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.079 But you know, I don't really see any need to 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.480 speed this up at this point. This case has been 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:45.160 challenged so many times. This is the third time that 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.840 it came up to the Supreme Court, So I don't 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:51.040 think there's any harm in holding off on the opinion 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:54.240 in this case. Maybe they prefer to hold off on it, actually, 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:57.240 so um, I think we'll see it in June. All 0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:00.640 the big decisions come down at the end of the term. 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:02.960 If the term last, when it usually does, we'll see 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.800 these big decisions in June. It will be fascinating because 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.280 you know, it is a court that is more shaped 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.880 by President Trump, and he has boasted of getting rid 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:13.839 of the individual mandate. But you do wonder if there 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.679 won't be slippage at some point down the line, that 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.920 if there isn't a penalty, then those who can't afford 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:23.520 really to to keep up there there there, there, their 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.000 insurance premiums and so on, if they won't sort of 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:27.520 end up out of the system, and if that won't 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:30.160 push it up for everybody else. Anyway, We'll have to 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:32.760 see how it goes. But oral arguments are always fascinating 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:35.200 at the Supreme Court, and June Grosso always has a 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.200 great handle on what's going on. She will be back, 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.360 of course, hosting Bloomberg Law, so do tune in for 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:43.280 that for more of a summary of what happened. It's 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:45.800 an eighty minute argument, by the way, so you know 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.720 it's quick. And we also know that oral arguments of 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.240 the Screme Court tend not to have a huge amount 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:54.680 of impact over the actual decision at least that's been 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.640 what's been the case in the past, but always interesting 0:14:57.720 --> 0:14:59.960 to listen to again. June Grosso, Bloomberg, Lean Land Unless 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:05.080 and host of Bloomberg Law. All right, let's got straight 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:09.080 to dr Amish Adulteria of Johns Hopkins University. A fantastic 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:12.440 conversation always with the doctor Adulgia. Let's begin with the 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:17.920 Eli Lily antibody drug dr Adlgia. After yesterday's five FISER announcement, 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.240 what do we make of the ramp up of positive announcements. 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.400 I think this is all a testament to the fact 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.960 that when we actually start to try and invest in 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.960 technological solutions to this infectious disease problems, they will bear fruit. 0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:33.880 And I think this is a lesson for other infectious 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.320 disease threats, and then we will get through this COVID 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.320 nineteen pandemic. It's going to still take some time with 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:41.400 the fiser, with the even with the fiser and used 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.360 with the literally drugs to get through this winter, which 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.560 is going to be rough in the northern hemisphere. And uh, 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:49.880 but but there is sort of a light at the 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.160 end of the tunnel coming and we are getting getting 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.240 to a point where we have much many more tools 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:56.640 to fight this virus than we did in the beginning. 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.600 Dr do give us you talk about this and then 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.120 President like Biden called it a you know, a long 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.960 dark winter coming up, and we're seeing the numbers just 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.480 kind of go through the roof set new records. Unfortunately, um, 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:12.960 you know, just from the New York perspective last March 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:14.640 in April, it seemed to take you know, a month 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:18.560 or so to start to really bend that curve. Do 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:22.880 you think there's a simple similar scenario here or is 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:26.880 something different about this second slash third wave. I think 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.240 there's something different about this third surge because there's a 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:34.440 lot of transmission that's going on with people's small gatherings. 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.600 And I think this definitely has a lot to do 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.480 with pandemic fatigue, which wasn't there during the first surge 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:42.400 because there that was people were scared it was a 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.960 new virus. The second thurde was really bars and restaurants 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.920 and and and that type of activity, which this one, 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.440 this third surge, is a little bit different epidemiologically, so 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.080 it's gonna be much harder to control. So I don't 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.360 know that we'll bend the curve of curve in all 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.760 of these places around the country that are that are 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.840 seeing surges. It's just it's very difficult now to get 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.880 people to to comply that haven't complied. So I really 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.080 fear for the worst in some places where their hospitals 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:11.480 are already under stressed. You know, the President elect, Joe Biden, 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:14.879 he's trying to do something, but he's limited in what 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.280 he can actually do. Can he have an impact? I mean, 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.280 he obviously can't do anything at a federal level. I 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.399 do think he can have an impact just by bringing 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.880 the moral authority of the of the presidency, which he's 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.640 going to assume in in a several weeks, as well 0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:33.600 as the team that he's assembled, which can constitute some 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:35.760 of the best minds in the field that can start 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:37.840 to issue guidance, can start to speak to the American 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:41.359 public and maybe with that kind of clear messaging, with 0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:44.480 a single voice, without any of the mixed messaging and 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.679 the evasions and the misinformation, you may see Americans actually 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.200 start to accept this information and be able to modify 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:52.359 their activities in a way that decreases the spread of 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.920 the virus. And it's also important for him to articulate 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:59.080 how he turns his plan into actionable items that state 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:01.840 and local health depart rents at hospitals are going to use, 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:04.000 so people know what what to expect and know what's 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:08.360 coming in January. So dr we had that good news 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.239 from Fiser yesterday about their vaccine. Of course, there are 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:15.720 other groups out there Moderna as well. How do you 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:17.800 think this is gonna all play out as we get 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.560 into maybe the mid part of the year. Are there 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:26.399 gonna be a number of vaccine choices for consumers? Will 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:30.399 doctors prescribe different vaccines for different people? How do you 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.960 think that will play out? Ideally? I hope that's the case, 0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:35.960 that we have so many vaccines that we have a 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:39.040 choice and and and what might happen is that you 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.840 have more than one vaccine get emergency use approval, and 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.800 you're pulling all those resources together to vaccinate the country, 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:46.520 and you just have to keep track of who gets 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.760 what vaccine, which can be logistically challenging. But I think 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:50.880 we would be happy to be in a position where 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:53.480 we have to have that as our problem. The other 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.159 thing is is that some of these vaccines may do 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.280 better in different subgroups, so we may have targeted vaccines 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.040 for different groups, just like we do for influence to 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:01.960 where we give certain types of flu vaccines to the 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.399 elderly population and other types to other populations. So that 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:07.479 would be something I would expect to see. So it's 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.240 important that we continue the research and development and the 0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:12.960 clinical trials on all of the other candidates, because I 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.240 don't think this is going to be a one vaccine solution. 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.480 We're likely going to have many different vaccines, and the 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:19.720 vaccine we get in a couple of years for coronavirus 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.240 maybe something completely different than what we're seeing now in 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:25.679 the clinical trials. If you don't mind talk to us 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.080 a little bit about Europe right now, because we're seeing 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:31.040 France coming very very close to i CU capacity. That 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:36.080 is the whole entirety of France, it's already above capacity. 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:39.000 We all have a major problem as well. In Denmark 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:41.960 with Mink explained this to us. For those who haven't 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:45.359 been following this story, well, you have to remember that 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:48.159 many of these European countries, what they relied on was 0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:52.560 an economic shutdown, a lockdown type of approach without actually 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:55.920 investing in the public health infrastructure needed to think about 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:57.920 to be able to deal with the cases that would 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:01.200 inevitably occur once you started to get people socially interacting. 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.520 I think that there is this kind of magical thinking 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.520 that this virus can just go away with with having 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:09.359 people social distance for a period of time, and that's 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.560 not the case. The virus has established itself in the 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:14.400 human population and has a wide spectrumribilenus of many mile 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.520 cases that never get big diagnosed. So when you when 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:19.520 you lift the shutdown, when you lift a lockdown, if 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:21.880 you don't have the ability to test, trace and isolate, 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:24.440 if you have an expanded hospital capacity, you're going to 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:26.720 go right back to where you were. We're nowhere near 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.480 her immunity for this. And it's if this is a 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.040 lesson that if you don't invest in the public health infrastructure, 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:35.480 you will continue to make the same mistake over and 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.640 over again and not have any kind of sustainable approach 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.520 to controlling this virus. Doctor, you're part of one of 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:46.359 the biggest and most well respected medical facilities in the world. 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:48.639 Give us a sense of how the rank and file 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:52.600 people that doctors, the nurses, the orderlies. What's the morale 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:54.879 of those people right now as they face what again 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:59.560 might be a very long winter. Well, it varies, and 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:02.280 I do think think that talking to my colleagues all 0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:04.800 around the country, that this is something that everybody is 0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:07.840 dreading because we know inevitably that the cases are going 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:10.920 to increase. We're already seeing it happened in many parts 0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:13.879 of the country that that hospitals now have more COVID 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:16.640 patients than they ever had before outside of the New 0:21:16.720 --> 0:21:19.720 York area, and we're we're worried about it because now 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:22.639 there's a lot of complacency in the public and people 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:26.000 in the community don't seem to care what's happening in 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:28.240 their own hospital. So I do think that that is 0:21:28.320 --> 0:21:32.720 demoralizing to realize that people, uh, they may clap for us, 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:34.879 and they may call us heroes, but if they're not 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.560 actually taking the actions that are not going to put 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:39.400 us in harm's way, that are not going to put 0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:42.240 our hospitals into crisis so other medical care can't be rendered. 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:46.159 I mean, it really is all empty applause. Yeah, I mean, 0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:49.399 it's it's it's it's a desperate situation. And also in 0:21:49.480 --> 0:21:52.480 places like nursing homes where you know, the staffing levels 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:54.840 have gone down after all of these people worked so 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:59.200 hard to shepherd their patients through this or to you know, 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.640