Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the
Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors
Speaker 1: all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we
Speaker 1: look to the US Jobs report as the Fed prepares
Speaker 1: to meet again in September. I'm Nathan Hager.
Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carol in London, where we're looking ahead to
Speaker 2: a reshuffle in the benchmark Foots one hundred equity index,
Speaker 2: with well known high street retailers set for a promotion.
Speaker 3: I'm deug Prisner looking at whether Japan's economy has made
Speaker 3: a major pivot.
Speaker 4: I'm Kabiglyones in Washington. There is a key hearing in
Speaker 4: former President Trump's twenty twenty election case.
Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break Weekend on
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Speaker 1: Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's
Speaker 1: program with a look at the job market in the
Speaker 1: US and what it could signal about more potential interest
Speaker 1: rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and joining me out
Speaker 1: to talk about this preview the August jobs report we've
Speaker 1: got coming up this Friday. Anna Wong is here with me,
Speaker 1: chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. Anna, great to speak
Speaker 1: with you, and I want to start things off with
Speaker 1: what we heard from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve,
Speaker 1: Jerome Powell, at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Of course,
Speaker 1: there was a lot of attention on the remarks about
Speaker 1: rates and how they could go even higher to bring
Speaker 1: down inflation to the two percent target, but Powell also
Speaker 1: did discuss the labor market and the impact that tighter
Speaker 1: policies having on job growth. Here's just a bit of
Speaker 1: what Chairman Powell had to say.
Speaker 6: We expect this labor market rebouncing to continue. Evidence that
Speaker 6: the tightness in the labor market is no longer easy
Speaker 6: could also call for a monetary policy response.
Speaker 1: All right, So that brings me to you, Anna, what
Speaker 1: kind of tightness could we see in this August jobs report?
Speaker 7: Right? So, our team is still forecasting, is forecasting that
Speaker 7: nonfarm payroll will increase by about one hundred eighty five
Speaker 7: thousand jobs in August, and it's still it's a slightly
Speaker 7: lower than the past month, but it is still very
Speaker 7: high relative to the kind of pace that would be
Speaker 7: consistent with the neutral temperature of the jobs market. So
Speaker 7: I think Powell in the past has cited one hundred
Speaker 7: thousand k per month as the neutral pace of job growth.
Speaker 7: So at one hundred over one hundred thousand, it is
Speaker 7: still greatly exceeding that number. But that said, I think
Speaker 7: what we heard in Powell's Jackson Hole speech is that
Speaker 7: it sounded like he does think the labor market is
Speaker 7: softening rather quickly. He mentioned that wage growth has eased,
Speaker 7: and he said it in a pretty unambiguous right way, right.
Speaker 7: And so next week's jobs report will come along with
Speaker 7: it the average hourly earnings. We're expecting it to show
Speaker 7: also pretty fast deceleration. I mean, despite all these news
Speaker 7: headline recently talking about the wage negotiations from labor strikes
Speaker 7: getting these ups, drivers could be earning one hundred seventy thousands,
Speaker 7: ten dollars in five years time. The fact of the
Speaker 7: matter is the labor market has softened in the sense
Speaker 7: that people are more hesitant to quit their jobs. And
Speaker 7: also job openings have come down, but it's a an
Speaker 7: oftentimes job opening stayed online even though it's no longer
Speaker 7: being recruited. So the true degree of decline and jobpenings
Speaker 7: could actually even be larger than what the jolt's number
Speaker 7: that we also will get next week will show. So
Speaker 7: I think, all in all a pretty positive case for
Speaker 7: why the Fed doesn't need to hike anymore, you know.
Speaker 1: And I'm glad you brought up the strikes because this
Speaker 1: has been the summer of strikes with a lot of
Speaker 1: you know, not just Hollywood, but some big name companies,
Speaker 1: really large companies like UPS getting these really big concessions
Speaker 1: when it comes to wages. Why do you think that's
Speaker 1: not having a read through into the broader wage pressure story,
Speaker 1: that we're not necessarily seeing wages as a major component
Speaker 1: for inflation going forward.
Speaker 7: Here in our forecast of one hundred and eighty five
Speaker 7: thousand jobs outed for next week's report, we already baked
Speaker 7: in that the layoffs from the bankruptcy of Yellow, which
Speaker 7: is the trucking company. The bankruptcy was the catalyst of
Speaker 7: that bankruptcy was the strike by teamster, and in fact,
Speaker 7: strikes happened in a kind of like almost it's like
Speaker 7: a virus when people you left and right, oh you succeed,
Speaker 7: then let's do it, you know. But in terms of
Speaker 7: how strikes and higher wages would translate to job, you know,
Speaker 7: hiring and layoff, it's actually a pretty subtle and unclear thing.
Speaker 7: So higher wages raises the input cost of companies, raises
Speaker 7: the operating costs, and decreases the profits, and so companies
Speaker 7: could feel more pressure to lay off workers as a
Speaker 7: result of higher wages. So and in fact, if you
Speaker 7: look at the transcripts of earning calls in this quarter,
Speaker 7: you're already seeing that many of the reasons cited by
Speaker 7: companies as laying off workers is to reduce overhead costs. Right,
Speaker 7: So I think the increase in the frequency of labor
Speaker 7: strikes it doesn't really tell you whether workers in general
Speaker 7: are gaining. In fact, if you produce is a group
Speaker 7: of winners, the ones who engage in the strikes, but
Speaker 7: it also produces a whole bunch of losers, the ones
Speaker 7: who would be ultimately laid off because firms have to
Speaker 7: cut overhead costs.
Speaker 1: Are you seeing a lot of those laid off workers
Speaker 1: finding difficulties getting into new jobs. Where is the labor
Speaker 1: force participation picture right now.
Speaker 7: In terms of what happens in August, which is what
Speaker 7: we'll see next month, the laidoff workers from Yellow will
Speaker 7: have trouble finding a new job because in that particular industry,
Speaker 7: the trucking industry, the freight industry, that industry has undergone
Speaker 7: a pretty serious recession in the past year. And that's
Speaker 7: one reason why the company Yellow went under, because it
Speaker 7: just has very people are just not buying as much goods.
Speaker 7: So at a time when FedEx ups all these companies,
Speaker 7: car box shipments are coming down. I mean you can
Speaker 7: see the car box shipment indicator, which is actually one
Speaker 7: of former fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's favorite barometer of the
Speaker 7: temperature of the economy. That indicator has been plunging since March.
Speaker 7: So there will be less need for workers to deliver boxes.
Speaker 7: And so I'm not optimistic about the rehiring prospect of
Speaker 7: the laid off Yellow workers. And then on top of
Speaker 7: that you have the ups books getting this wage bump.
Speaker 7: It means that these company ups, as I said that,
Speaker 7: at a time where their revenues are plunging. Their profits
Speaker 7: are coming down, the operating cost is surging because of
Speaker 7: these labor strikes. They will have to cut the cost somewhere,
Speaker 7: and there will be losers as a result of that.
Speaker 1: Well, I've got you here, Anna, I've got to touch
Speaker 1: on your analysis this week that got so much attention
Speaker 1: about the overall US economy and about Barbenheimer and blockbuster
Speaker 1: concert tours giving a pretty significant bump to US economic growth.
Speaker 1: Who knew that Taylor, Swift and Beyonce had this kind.
Speaker 7: Of power, Yeah, I did, neither. But what prompted that
Speaker 7: analysis was this Atlanta Fed GDP now cast reading, which
Speaker 7: a lot of people on Wall Street pay attention to
Speaker 7: this now cast reading, and it was showing a five
Speaker 7: point nine percent for third quarter GDP growth, which is
Speaker 7: out of the world high, right, And we noticed that
Speaker 7: out of that three percentage point was due to consumption
Speaker 7: due to the really high July retail's reading. And indeed
Speaker 7: it was true. The retail reading for July was like
Speaker 7: shockingly high at a time when you're seeing delinquencies on
Speaker 7: consumer loan surging, and you know, at a time when
Speaker 7: a lot of firms during the earning season this year
Speaker 7: talk about how volumes are down. So it was all
Speaker 7: very odd until you look at the individual economic impact
Speaker 7: of these four cultural phenomena. Right So AMC, the largest
Speaker 7: movie theater chain in the country, said that the Barbenheimer
Speaker 7: July was the best box office in their one hundred
Speaker 7: and five years of operation. It's a once in a
Speaker 7: blue moon thing. And also Taylor Swift by itself is
Speaker 7: already a seismic event. On top of that, you get
Speaker 7: Beyonce happening at the same time at each stadium. The
Speaker 7: average stadium capacity for a Taylor Swift concert is fifty
Speaker 7: four thousand people and each of them, on average spent
Speaker 7: fifteen hundred dollars in attending the concert, which included the tickets,
Speaker 7: the hotel, buy food. As Memorilia and Beyonce. Is even
Speaker 7: an i estimate that Beyonce would produce an even bigger
Speaker 7: impact because Taylor Swift's concert tours dialing down in North
Speaker 7: America in August and September, where is Beyonce is just
Speaker 7: starting up. She has over thirty concerts in the next
Speaker 7: two months. Each of the concert has an average capacity
Speaker 7: of seventy thousand, even larger than Taylor Swift, and people
Speaker 7: who attend Beyonce are slightly wealthier than Taylor Swift, probably
Speaker 7: because they're older. So altogether you produce this Olympic size
Speaker 7: kind of event. The economy is actually quite tremendous.
Speaker 1: Well, wouldn't it be something if Taylor Swift or the
Speaker 1: kind of data that the Fed depends on in data dependency.
Speaker 1: Thanks for this, Anna, great having you on with us.
Speaker 7: Happy to be here.
Speaker 1: Anna Wong is chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics and
Speaker 1: coming up here on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we take you
Speaker 1: to London where the foot Sea reshuffle is about to
Speaker 1: take place. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the
Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager.
Speaker 1: Up later in our program, we'll take a look at
Speaker 1: the allegations of election interference against former President Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: But first we go to London, where the cutoff arrives
Speaker 1: for inclusion in the Footsie one hundred. The benchmark UK
Speaker 1: index is due for a shakeup as the miners and
Speaker 1: oil majors that have dominated its ranks sink on fears
Speaker 1: of weakness in the Chinese economy. One bright spot, though
Speaker 1: from Britain's high Street, may be set to make a
Speaker 1: return this quarter. And for more we go to London
Speaker 1: and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe banker Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 2: At the close of trading on Tuesday, Britain's one hundred
Speaker 2: biggest public companies will be selected to make up the
Speaker 2: foot see one hundred. A bit like sports leagues, some
Speaker 2: face relegation, others promotion company it looks set to re
Speaker 2: enter the Benchmark index this week is a staple of
Speaker 2: the British high street. The grocery and clothing chain Marks
Speaker 2: and Spencer has seen their share price stage to comeback
Speaker 2: this year, but that's at the expense of others, including
Speaker 2: the home builder per Simon, which has been a victim
Speaker 2: of higher interest rates in the downturn in the housing market.
Speaker 2: I've been discussing this with Bloomberg's UK retail reporter Katie
Speaker 2: Linsel and equities reporter Lisa fam I started by asking Katie,
Speaker 2: what's driven the upturn in Marks and Spencer's fortunes.
Speaker 8: Really, what we're seeing is an improvement on both sides
Speaker 8: of the business, so both in food and in home
Speaker 8: and it's quite a long time coming for MINS, because
Speaker 8: really we've been looking at years, even decades of the
Speaker 8: turnaround trying to take hold here at this retailer. And
Speaker 8: if we look at food, firstly, m Ands has really
Speaker 8: made a lot of effort to show that you can
Speaker 8: actually shop a full basket of food m Ands, and
Speaker 8: they've been trying to keep prices down as much as
Speaker 8: possible to really encourage shoppers to buy their basics with
Speaker 8: them and not just their sort of premium items. And
Speaker 8: then if we look at clothing, they've been making a
Speaker 8: lot of effort to try and fight the image of
Speaker 8: sort of dowdy, ill fitting, unfashionable clothing and working on
Speaker 8: their own brands as well as attracting third party brands.
Speaker 2: Lisa, let's go to you next. What will rejoining the
Speaker 2: Footy one hundred mean for m and S and for
Speaker 2: its shares?
Speaker 9: Yeah, So, as Katie was saying, like m Ands has
Speaker 9: done really well this year, and it's been reflected in
Speaker 9: the share prices as well. The stocks has risen more
Speaker 9: than seventy percent this year and so it's taken as
Speaker 9: market cap to more than four billion pounds. So the
Speaker 9: advantage for stocks like Maxi and Spencer to be in
Speaker 9: the Footy one hundred index is the fact that there
Speaker 9: are a lot of tracker fans, which, as the name suggests,
Speaker 9: track the underlying index. So this means that these fans
Speaker 9: would have to buy the shares in order to replicate
Speaker 9: the performance of the index. There are also some actively
Speaker 9: managed fans and so with these funds, they may have
Speaker 9: a mandate to only invest in foot See one hundred
Speaker 9: companies in the universe of stocks that they look at
Speaker 9: alongside other benchmark indexes in other countries and other markets.
Speaker 9: So that would be another advantage to be part of
Speaker 9: this blue chip foot See one hundred index.
Speaker 2: What other changes might we see at the upcoming review.
Speaker 9: So we could potentially see Detra Pharmaceuticals, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and
Speaker 9: Diploma going in alongside the m ands. And in terms
Speaker 9: of who might go out, it might be Aberdeen, Johnson,
Speaker 9: Matthe Persimon and RS Group. But the final changes will
Speaker 9: be based on Tuesday's prices. So if we look at
Speaker 9: RS Group as an example, as of Thursday morning, its
Speaker 9: market cap is slightly higher than his Scoss, which is
Speaker 9: also in the foot See one hundred, So there's a
Speaker 9: chance that RS Group might actually stay in despite the
Speaker 9: indicative results saying that it might go out. So the
Speaker 9: market caps between RS Group and his Scots are very close.
Speaker 2: What then should we be watching for in the run
Speaker 2: up to that deadline on Tuesday?
Speaker 9: Yeah exactly. I do know some people who are constantly
Speaker 9: refreshing to see what the market caps of these two
Speaker 9: are going to be like. So it's quite an interesting
Speaker 9: one to watch. And just as a reminder, Akada had
Speaker 9: been set to exit the Footy one hundred index last quarter,
Speaker 9: but in the end it kept its spot and British
Speaker 9: Land was removed instead, so it's still very much up
Speaker 9: in the air.
Speaker 2: It's interesting on that point about Accado being of course
Speaker 2: a big online retailer. To go back to Katie Linsel
Speaker 2: for more on how the sector in general is facing
Speaker 2: as well. I mean, cost of living pressures has driven
Speaker 2: up revenues for many, but retailers, particularly supermarkets, coming under
Speaker 2: huge pressure about passing on price increases to consumers. How
Speaker 2: much have these businesses been able to benefit, as it were,
Speaker 2: from inflation.
Speaker 10: We did have the traditional Big four UK supermarkets pulled
Speaker 10: in front of MPs to answer questions on this topic. Recently,
Speaker 10: and if we look at profits last year for the
Speaker 10: traditional Big four, they actually fell, margins were tighter. It's
Speaker 10: clear that supermarkets are under pressure from higher energy bills
Speaker 10: and also higher labor costs, and so you know, they
Speaker 10: weren't making more money off the back of this. But still,
Speaker 10: you know, we're expecting quite big profits this year. I
Speaker 10: think the supermarkets are really at pains to try and
Speaker 10: tell the consumer, you know, we are cutting prices wherever possible.
Speaker 10: We're seeing almost sort of weekly press releases from the
Speaker 10: supermarkets showing that they are cutting the prices of basics,
Speaker 10: and the latest one is butter and M and S
Speaker 10: is no different there. You know, they are really been
Speaker 10: almost at the forefront and trying to tell consumers, you know,
Speaker 10: we are keeping prices affordable, especially on basic you know,
Speaker 10: jacket potatoes, bate beams, trying to paint the image for
Speaker 10: the consumer be you can buy those items with us,
Speaker 10: it's not just the sort of premium ready meals.
Speaker 2: It's interesting to think about this because the question around
Speaker 2: pricing power for companies that are making consumer goods has
Speaker 2: very much been in focused because of the rate of inflation.
Speaker 2: The power that supermarkets have to increase prices is quite
Speaker 2: limited because these are very thin margin businesses.
Speaker 10: That's a big debate, you know, looking at the sort
Speaker 10: of unilevers of this world that have much higher margins
Speaker 10: versus supermarkets, and it's quite a fiercely fault debate between
Speaker 10: the supermarkets and their suppliers. You know, who's to blame
Speaker 10: when it comes to higher prices to the consumers. Supermarkets
Speaker 10: do have their own brand items as well, and we've
Speaker 10: seen through the cost living crisis consumers buying more and
Speaker 10: more of these own brand goods because they are cheaper.
Speaker 10: And so that's where the supermarkets are really taking control
Speaker 10: of the narrative and showing this is where we are
Speaker 10: cutting prices. We are seeing prices costs come through lower
Speaker 10: in certain commodities and so we are able to cut
Speaker 10: prices there. So yeah, I think I think it's going
Speaker 10: to be a sort of ongoing fist debate between the
Speaker 10: big suppliers and the supermarkets.
Speaker 2: Katie, what about the competition between SuperM or other among
Speaker 2: supermarkets over this issue as well? Our customers move moving
Speaker 2: to the cheaper end of the scale when it comes
Speaker 2: to where they're shopping.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, we've seen all through this period of really high inflation,
Speaker 10: that Alba and Little are really lucking out if you like,
Speaker 10: they are gaining market share, and Aldi in September last year,
Speaker 10: so almost a year ago, took the spot of the
Speaker 10: fourth largest grosser in the UK. They knocked Morrisons off
Speaker 10: that spot. Morrisons have been much slower to be able
Speaker 10: to pass on that message to consumers that the prices
Speaker 10: are coming down, partly because Morrisons produce a lot of
Speaker 10: their own food, so they feel that impact of inflation
Speaker 10: much faster. If we look at the sort of premium
Speaker 10: end at Waitros for example, and Marx expenses, I mean,
Speaker 10: Weightros have been much slower to flag to consumers that
Speaker 10: the prices are that they are cutting prices, whereas Marcus
Speaker 10: Spenser's a really sort of run away with the competition
Speaker 10: there at that premium end.
Speaker 2: Lisa fam thinking more broadly about the prospects for UK
Speaker 2: equities in the next year, what should we be considering
Speaker 2: when we can say where the new members of the
Speaker 2: FOOTSI one hundred will go.
Speaker 9: Inflation seems to be quite sticky. We're dealing with a
Speaker 9: lot of high interest rates and so it does seem
Speaker 9: like the outlook is still quite gloomy for UK stocks.
Speaker 9: At the same time, we did have black Rock Strategists
Speaker 9: last week they upgraded their view on UK stocks too neutral,
Speaker 9: so I guess it could be just a case of
Speaker 9: wait and see in terms of like what happens with
Speaker 9: UK stocks.
Speaker 2: Thanks to Bloomberg's UK retail reporter Katie Linsel and equities
Speaker 2: reporter Lisa fam we will bring you coverage of the
Speaker 2: FOTZI one hundred reshuffle here on Bloomberg Radio. And another
Speaker 2: piece of related data we'll be watching for in the
Speaker 2: coming days is the Shop Price Index in the British
Speaker 2: Retail Consortium. We'll be looking out to see what it
Speaker 2: might tell us about the trajectory for the UK's stubbornly
Speaker 2: high inflation rate. I'm Stephen Carroll in London. You can
Speaker 2: catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe,
Speaker 2: beginning at six am in London and one am on
Speaker 2: Wall Street.
Speaker 1: All right, thank you, Stephen. Then coming up on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: day Break weekend, a wave of developments related to the
Speaker 1: allegations of election interference against former President Donald Trump. I'm
Speaker 1: Nathan Hager, and this is.
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Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager with your global look ahead at the
Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. It could
Speaker 1: be a week chuck full of developments for former President
Speaker 1: Donald Trump in the case where he's accused of election
Speaker 1: interference in twenty twenty. For more, let's head to our
Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington and check in
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee Lyines.
Speaker 4: That's right, Nathan. This coming Monday here in Washington, Judge
Speaker 4: Tanya Chutkin will hold her first hearing in the twenty
Speaker 4: twenty election case against former President Donald Trump, a hearing
Speaker 4: in which she is expected to announce a trial date.
Speaker 4: And of course, this will come just days after Trump
Speaker 4: was booked in Fulton County, Georgia, in a separate state case,
Speaker 4: though still related to efforts to overturn the result of
Speaker 4: the last presidential election. It's a lot to go through
Speaker 4: from both a legal and political perspective. So I've assembled
Speaker 4: a power team Elizabeth Wasserman, DC based Bloomberg Legal editor
Speaker 4: and Ryan teeg Beck with Bloomberg National Politics reporter. So, Elizabeth,
Speaker 4: just to begin, As I said, we're coming off a
Speaker 4: week in which it was the Georgia twenty twenty election
Speaker 4: case that was in focus. This one this coming week
Speaker 4: is a federal case in question. Can you just remind
Speaker 4: us how they are different.
Speaker 11: Yes, the federal case was brought by Special Council Jack
Speaker 11: Smith and his team prosecutors on behalf of the Justice Department,
Speaker 11: and it's it's looking at it's one part of the
Speaker 11: Special Council two part investigation. You know, there's the one
Speaker 11: about the documents down in Florida. This one in Washington
Speaker 11: is about the twenty twenty election and efforts to overturn
Speaker 11: the results and by Trump and along with some co conspirators,
Speaker 11: you know, to keep him in office. So the case
Speaker 11: in Georgia is a state case and it's a racketeering case.
Speaker 11: It alleges that there's a conspiracy involving you know, nineteen defendants,
Speaker 11: including the former president, and that they conspired to you know,
Speaker 11: deprive you know, the citizens of their their their rightful votes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good point that there's actually eighteen other
Speaker 4: co defendants in the Georgia case, where in Jack Smith's case,
Speaker 4: while there are other co conspirators, it's just the former
Speaker 4: president that was charged. And of course in Georgia, we
Speaker 4: learned this past week that Fannie Willis is really trying
Speaker 4: She's of course the district attorney, really trying to make
Speaker 4: this thing speedy. She asked for an October twenty third,
Speaker 4: of twenty twenty three trial date. When it comes to
Speaker 4: the trial date in the Washington case though, which we
Speaker 4: expect to be decided this coming week, I believe Jack
Speaker 4: Smith's off as Elizabeth had asked for a start date
Speaker 4: of January second, so also going for speed here. I
Speaker 4: know the Trump team has pushed back on that. Do
Speaker 4: we have any idea which way Chuckkin's going to lean
Speaker 4: on this?
Speaker 11: Well, she is someone who controlled has a very good
Speaker 11: control over her core calendar, and I have a feeling
Speaker 11: since the both sides are far apart. You know, Jack
Speaker 11: Smith once January. Second, the Trump lawyers are suggesting, you know,
Speaker 11: after the twenty twenty four elections, they actually throughout a
Speaker 11: trial date of April twenty twenty. That's a big they
Speaker 11: have to Yeah, I think the the you know, the
Speaker 11: better is among us, the odds might be greater that
Speaker 11: she sides more with the prosecution's start date. You know,
Speaker 11: she has handled a number of January sixth, you know,
Speaker 11: uh cases involving the riot at the US capital, and
Speaker 11: she's moved those along very quickly. She made it clear
Speaker 11: that she intends to move this along very quickly as well.
Speaker 4: So if she does so, Ryan to bring you in here.
Speaker 4: Depending on what date she ultimately lands on, if it's
Speaker 4: January or even really if it's just any time between
Speaker 4: January and say July, it could fall in the thick
Speaker 4: of primary season. So what's the political implication there for
Speaker 4: the former president, who of course is currently running to
Speaker 4: be president again.
Speaker 12: Well, there's two effects. And the first is really you
Speaker 12: can already see, and that is just time. Presidential campaigns,
Speaker 12: all regardless of how much money they have, have only
Speaker 12: so much time and number of days that you can
Speaker 12: hold a rally on number of days that you can
Speaker 12: do fundraise, number of days you can go do TV
Speaker 12: interviews or whatever. Donald Trump is not campaigning at the
Speaker 12: level that he campaigned at twenty sixteen or twenty twenty.
Speaker 12: He's not holding as many rallies, he's not holding as
Speaker 12: many events, he's not doing as many interviews. And I
Speaker 12: think that he did not should do the debate. I
Speaker 12: think that all of those are related to his legal troubles.
Speaker 12: I personally think, and I don't you know, I can't
Speaker 12: say this so for sure, but I personally think that
Speaker 12: one reason he may have chosen not to debate was
Speaker 12: that he would be asked about these criminal cases. And
Speaker 12: if I was his lawyer, I would have said, no,
Speaker 12: I don't think you should go on national TV and
Speaker 12: answer appointed questions from experienced reporters about your multiple criminal
Speaker 12: indictments because all of what you said, I mean, you'd
Speaker 12: have to give a Miranda warning at the beginning of
Speaker 12: the debate. Anything you say can and will be used
Speaker 12: against you. Of course it'll be used against him. So
Speaker 12: I think that may have been one reason for that,
Speaker 12: and it's definitely affecting his campaign schedule. So that's the
Speaker 12: first effect. The second effect is I don't know that
Speaker 12: we know yet what the effect would be of him
Speaker 12: being convicted in one of these cases. It's very easy
Speaker 12: at this point for people to say, well, you know,
Speaker 12: I don't know, I still support him whatever. These cases
Speaker 12: are political. But if he's convicted by a jury, I
Speaker 12: think that that could potentially have more of an impact
Speaker 12: than we've seen from the indictments so far, because that
Speaker 12: sends a signal that, like, you know, twelve random people
Speaker 12: were pulled in and shown the evidence and came to
Speaker 12: a conclusion. I think that there's some voters that might
Speaker 12: sway who haven't been swayed so far. But I don't know.
Speaker 12: So I don't know either of those things. But they're
Speaker 12: both big questions that we'll be watching.
Speaker 4: And we're all just gonna basically have to wait and
Speaker 4: watch to find out. But if we're playing the hypothetical game,
Speaker 4: to write point Elizabeth, if convicted, if he's convicted, theoretically
Speaker 4: there's going to be a punishment of consequence of some time.
Speaker 4: What's your sense as to whether or not prison time
Speaker 4: would ultimately be a reality for a former president of
Speaker 4: the United States.
Speaker 11: Well, that is the sixty four thousand dollars. Question, isn't
Speaker 11: it that it's hard to tell. First, these cases have to,
Speaker 11: you know, get to the trial stage. They and his
Speaker 11: calendar is clogging up with trial dates. You know, he's
Speaker 11: got one in a civil case January fifteenth. He's got
Speaker 11: a trial in New York on the hush money charges,
Speaker 11: and then falsifying business records March twenty fifth. He has
Speaker 11: a May twentieth trial date in cedral Court in Florida
Speaker 11: on the classified documents case. And so.
Speaker 7: I I don't.
Speaker 11: I doubt that we are going to get through all
Speaker 11: of these cases before the next election, and you know,
Speaker 11: perhaps one or two. But you know, the the the
Speaker 11: it's a it's an untried issue whether he you know,
Speaker 11: I should say, there's nothing there's nothing stopping him from
Speaker 11: serving if he's convicted. There's nothing in the constitution that
Speaker 11: prevents that. I don't know if it'll get that far, though,
Speaker 11: I yeah, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're watching history be made in real time here.
Speaker 4: And while we don't know if that history is going
Speaker 4: to include time in prison for a former president, he
Speaker 4: did get a little time in jail in Fulton County
Speaker 4: this past week, Ryan, in which other history was made
Speaker 4: and that we all saw with a very own eyes
Speaker 4: a mug shot of a former president. Walk me through
Speaker 4: that significance.
Speaker 12: You know, if you toc tic criminal defense attorneys, they
Speaker 12: generally don't like the mug shot, and in a lot
Speaker 12: of jurisdictions they no longer do them. I mean the
Speaker 12: origins of the mugshot where that you needed some kind
Speaker 12: of record of what this person looked like in case
Speaker 12: they didn't show up. And there's arguments to be made
Speaker 12: that we didn't exactly need a mug shot of say
Speaker 12: Rudy Giuliani or Donald Trump, that people know what they
Speaker 12: look like, but you know, they were applying a policy
Speaker 12: that they had in place.
Speaker 4: What a world, What a world we live in. Thank
Speaker 4: you for helping us make sense of it. Elizabeth Wasserman,
Speaker 4: one of our DC Beast legal reporters and editors. I
Speaker 4: should say here at Bloomberg and Ryan Teede back with
Speaker 4: Bloomberg National Politics reporter, and Nathan will send it back
Speaker 4: to you.
Speaker 1: Thanks for that, Kaylee. That was Bloomberg's sound on co
Speaker 1: host Kaylee Lines, reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine one
Speaker 1: newsroom in Washington, and you can hear sound on every
Speaker 1: weekday from one to three pm Eastern right here on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak week and look
Speaker 1: at some of the twists and turns ahead for Japan's economy.
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hagar, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories
Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager. Japan's
Speaker 1: economy is experiencing plenty of twists and turns and it's
Speaker 1: leading to some volatility for investors in the country. For more,
Speaker 1: let's go to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia co host Doug Krisner.
Speaker 3: Nathan, the Japanese economy is bounced back from the pandemic
Speaker 3: with surprising force. As an example, second quarter GDP growth
Speaker 3: six percent, that was double what economist did forecast. Now
Speaker 3: in the week ahead, we're going to have even more insight.
Speaker 3: We'll get the official figures on retail sales, industrial production,
Speaker 3: and numbers on the labor market as well. Let's take
Speaker 3: a closer look the story on the world's third largest
Speaker 3: economy with our Paul Jackson. Paul as team leader from
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's coverage of the economies in Japan and South Korea.
Speaker 3: He joins us from our studios in Tokyo. Thanks for
Speaker 3: making time to chat with us, Paul. So what are
Speaker 3: we going to learn next week these numbers on factory output.
Speaker 3: I guess, as you refer to it in Japan, retail sales,
Speaker 3: the job market, how are they expected to come in?
Speaker 6: Well, you reference the GDP figure there, and that six
Speaker 6: percent sounds pretty good, doesn't it. That's the best result
Speaker 6: really since the rebound from the pandemic. But ultimately that
Speaker 6: figure is a bit on the flattering side because it
Speaker 6: was mainly driven by exports net exports, and if you
Speaker 6: look into the details, consumer spending was actually down for
Speaker 6: the first time in three quarters. Now that's not good
Speaker 6: if you're trying to achieve inflation add a sustainable recovery
Speaker 6: in the economy. So we're still not sure how much
Speaker 6: this is kind of lurching forward, a sputtering forward, or
Speaker 6: whether this is like a consistent recovery in the economy.
Speaker 6: So this data next week should help us get a
Speaker 6: bit more of a feel for that. And you know,
Speaker 6: on that consumer spending point, I think that retail sales
Speaker 6: figure will be important. We've been seeing growth of more
Speaker 6: than five percent in recent months on a year on
Speaker 6: year basis, and I think we definitely want to see
Speaker 6: that continuing. Don't forget that these retail sales figures are
Speaker 6: inflated by inflation itself, so they're not quite as good
Speaker 6: as as they look.
Speaker 3: So we seem to be describing a little bit of
Speaker 3: a bifurcation in the economy right where the exports may
Speaker 3: be holding up reasonably well thanks to and I'm thinking
Speaker 3: out loud here, a weaker currency, domestic consumption may be
Speaker 3: a little concerning, and not just that the households may
Speaker 3: be holding back, but corporations as well. Is that a
Speaker 3: fair statement, Yeah, I.
Speaker 6: Think it is. We will see some corporate spending plans
Speaker 6: coming out at the end of the week. Ministry of
Speaker 6: Finance will collate capital spending. Those figures will be used
Speaker 6: to actually revise the GDP figure in a couple of weeks,
Speaker 6: So yeah, that will be of high interest to see
Speaker 6: whether companies are maintaining positive outlook. And let's face it,
Speaker 6: there are some clouds on the horizon. Obviously, we're in
Speaker 6: the middle of a global slowdown. What's going on in
Speaker 6: China is of great concern. You mentioned the factory output
Speaker 6: figures from Japan next week, Well, we're expecting those to
Speaker 6: be down as the factory sector kind of like struggles
Speaker 6: to really boost outputs in this kind of fragile scenario.
Speaker 6: And I think one of the figures that will be
Speaker 6: of key interest actually won't be in Japan. It will
Speaker 6: be the PMI figures coming out of China. We've seen
Speaker 6: a contract in the factory sector there in recent months.
Speaker 6: I think we're probably going to see more of that,
Speaker 6: And ultimately, if you don't have the Chinese economy kind
Speaker 6: of firing on all cylinders, then the prospects both for
Speaker 6: global growth and continue to cover in Japan's economy are limited.
Speaker 3: Paul, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to
Speaker 3: help us understand what's happening where you are in Tokyo
Speaker 3: and Japan. More broadly, Paul Jackson, team leader for Bloomberg's
Speaker 3: coverage of the economies in Japan and South Korea, joining
Speaker 3: us here. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian Curtis
Speaker 3: and myself weekdays for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six
Speaker 3: am in Hong Kong, six pm on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: Nathan all right, thanks Doug, and that does it for
Speaker 1: this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday
Speaker 1: morning at five am Wall Street time for the latest
Speaker 1: on markets overseas and all the news you need to
Speaker 1: start your day. I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us now.
Speaker 1: Top stories and global business headlines are hang up right now.
Speaker 7: M