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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the

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Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors

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Speaker 1: all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we

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Speaker 1: look to the US Jobs report as the Fed prepares

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Speaker 1: to meet again in September. I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carol in London, where we're looking ahead to

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Speaker 2: a reshuffle in the benchmark Foots one hundred equity index,

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Speaker 2: with well known high street retailers set for a promotion.

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Speaker 3: I'm deug Prisner looking at whether Japan's economy has made

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Speaker 3: a major pivot.

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Speaker 4: I'm Kabiglyones in Washington. There is a key hearing in

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Speaker 4: former President Trump's twenty twenty election case.

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Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break Weekend on

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg Eleve Them three oh New York, Bloomberg ninety nine

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Speaker 5: to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston,

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio London, Sirius

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Speaker 5: XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio

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Speaker 5: dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's

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Speaker 1: program with a look at the job market in the

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Speaker 1: US and what it could signal about more potential interest

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Speaker 1: rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and joining me out

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Speaker 1: to talk about this preview the August jobs report we've

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Speaker 1: got coming up this Friday. Anna Wong is here with me,

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Speaker 1: chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. Anna, great to speak

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Speaker 1: with you, and I want to start things off with

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Speaker 1: what we heard from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 1: Jerome Powell, at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Of course,

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Speaker 1: there was a lot of attention on the remarks about

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Speaker 1: rates and how they could go even higher to bring

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Speaker 1: down inflation to the two percent target, but Powell also

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Speaker 1: did discuss the labor market and the impact that tighter

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Speaker 1: policies having on job growth. Here's just a bit of

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Speaker 1: what Chairman Powell had to say.

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Speaker 6: We expect this labor market rebouncing to continue. Evidence that

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Speaker 6: the tightness in the labor market is no longer easy

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Speaker 6: could also call for a monetary policy response.

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Speaker 1: All right, So that brings me to you, Anna, what

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Speaker 1: kind of tightness could we see in this August jobs report?

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Speaker 7: Right? So, our team is still forecasting, is forecasting that

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Speaker 7: nonfarm payroll will increase by about one hundred eighty five

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Speaker 7: thousand jobs in August, and it's still it's a slightly

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Speaker 7: lower than the past month, but it is still very

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Speaker 7: high relative to the kind of pace that would be

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Speaker 7: consistent with the neutral temperature of the jobs market. So

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Speaker 7: I think Powell in the past has cited one hundred

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Speaker 7: thousand k per month as the neutral pace of job growth.

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Speaker 7: So at one hundred over one hundred thousand, it is

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Speaker 7: still greatly exceeding that number. But that said, I think

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Speaker 7: what we heard in Powell's Jackson Hole speech is that

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Speaker 7: it sounded like he does think the labor market is

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Speaker 7: softening rather quickly. He mentioned that wage growth has eased,

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Speaker 7: and he said it in a pretty unambiguous right way, right.

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Speaker 7: And so next week's jobs report will come along with

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Speaker 7: it the average hourly earnings. We're expecting it to show

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Speaker 7: also pretty fast deceleration. I mean, despite all these news

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Speaker 7: headline recently talking about the wage negotiations from labor strikes

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Speaker 7: getting these ups, drivers could be earning one hundred seventy thousands,

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Speaker 7: ten dollars in five years time. The fact of the

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Speaker 7: matter is the labor market has softened in the sense

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Speaker 7: that people are more hesitant to quit their jobs. And

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Speaker 7: also job openings have come down, but it's a an

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Speaker 7: oftentimes job opening stayed online even though it's no longer

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Speaker 7: being recruited. So the true degree of decline and jobpenings

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Speaker 7: could actually even be larger than what the jolt's number

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Speaker 7: that we also will get next week will show. So

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Speaker 7: I think, all in all a pretty positive case for

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Speaker 7: why the Fed doesn't need to hike anymore, you know.

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Speaker 1: And I'm glad you brought up the strikes because this

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Speaker 1: has been the summer of strikes with a lot of

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Speaker 1: you know, not just Hollywood, but some big name companies,

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Speaker 1: really large companies like UPS getting these really big concessions

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Speaker 1: when it comes to wages. Why do you think that's

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Speaker 1: not having a read through into the broader wage pressure story,

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Speaker 1: that we're not necessarily seeing wages as a major component

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Speaker 1: for inflation going forward.

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Speaker 7: Here in our forecast of one hundred and eighty five

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Speaker 7: thousand jobs outed for next week's report, we already baked

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Speaker 7: in that the layoffs from the bankruptcy of Yellow, which

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Speaker 7: is the trucking company. The bankruptcy was the catalyst of

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Speaker 7: that bankruptcy was the strike by teamster, and in fact,

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Speaker 7: strikes happened in a kind of like almost it's like

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Speaker 7: a virus when people you left and right, oh you succeed,

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Speaker 7: then let's do it, you know. But in terms of

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Speaker 7: how strikes and higher wages would translate to job, you know,

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Speaker 7: hiring and layoff, it's actually a pretty subtle and unclear thing.

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Speaker 7: So higher wages raises the input cost of companies, raises

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Speaker 7: the operating costs, and decreases the profits, and so companies

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Speaker 7: could feel more pressure to lay off workers as a

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Speaker 7: result of higher wages. So and in fact, if you

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Speaker 7: look at the transcripts of earning calls in this quarter,

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Speaker 7: you're already seeing that many of the reasons cited by

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Speaker 7: companies as laying off workers is to reduce overhead costs. Right,

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Speaker 7: So I think the increase in the frequency of labor

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Speaker 7: strikes it doesn't really tell you whether workers in general

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Speaker 7: are gaining. In fact, if you produce is a group

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Speaker 7: of winners, the ones who engage in the strikes, but

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Speaker 7: it also produces a whole bunch of losers, the ones

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Speaker 7: who would be ultimately laid off because firms have to

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Speaker 7: cut overhead costs.

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Speaker 1: Are you seeing a lot of those laid off workers

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Speaker 1: finding difficulties getting into new jobs. Where is the labor

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Speaker 1: force participation picture right now.

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Speaker 7: In terms of what happens in August, which is what

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Speaker 7: we'll see next month, the laidoff workers from Yellow will

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Speaker 7: have trouble finding a new job because in that particular industry,

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Speaker 7: the trucking industry, the freight industry, that industry has undergone

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Speaker 7: a pretty serious recession in the past year. And that's

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Speaker 7: one reason why the company Yellow went under, because it

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Speaker 7: just has very people are just not buying as much goods.

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Speaker 7: So at a time when FedEx ups all these companies,

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Speaker 7: car box shipments are coming down. I mean you can

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Speaker 7: see the car box shipment indicator, which is actually one

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Speaker 7: of former fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's favorite barometer of the

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Speaker 7: temperature of the economy. That indicator has been plunging since March.

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Speaker 7: So there will be less need for workers to deliver boxes.

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Speaker 7: And so I'm not optimistic about the rehiring prospect of

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Speaker 7: the laid off Yellow workers. And then on top of

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Speaker 7: that you have the ups books getting this wage bump.

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Speaker 7: It means that these company ups, as I said that,

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Speaker 7: at a time where their revenues are plunging. Their profits

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Speaker 7: are coming down, the operating cost is surging because of

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Speaker 7: these labor strikes. They will have to cut the cost somewhere,

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Speaker 7: and there will be losers as a result of that.

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Speaker 1: Well, I've got you here, Anna, I've got to touch

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Speaker 1: on your analysis this week that got so much attention

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Speaker 1: about the overall US economy and about Barbenheimer and blockbuster

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Speaker 1: concert tours giving a pretty significant bump to US economic growth.

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Speaker 1: Who knew that Taylor, Swift and Beyonce had this kind.

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Speaker 7: Of power, Yeah, I did, neither. But what prompted that

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Speaker 7: analysis was this Atlanta Fed GDP now cast reading, which

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Speaker 7: a lot of people on Wall Street pay attention to

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Speaker 7: this now cast reading, and it was showing a five

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Speaker 7: point nine percent for third quarter GDP growth, which is

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Speaker 7: out of the world high, right, And we noticed that

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Speaker 7: out of that three percentage point was due to consumption

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Speaker 7: due to the really high July retail's reading. And indeed

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Speaker 7: it was true. The retail reading for July was like

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Speaker 7: shockingly high at a time when you're seeing delinquencies on

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Speaker 7: consumer loan surging, and you know, at a time when

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Speaker 7: a lot of firms during the earning season this year

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Speaker 7: talk about how volumes are down. So it was all

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Speaker 7: very odd until you look at the individual economic impact

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Speaker 7: of these four cultural phenomena. Right So AMC, the largest

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Speaker 7: movie theater chain in the country, said that the Barbenheimer

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Speaker 7: July was the best box office in their one hundred

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Speaker 7: and five years of operation. It's a once in a

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Speaker 7: blue moon thing. And also Taylor Swift by itself is

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Speaker 7: already a seismic event. On top of that, you get

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Speaker 7: Beyonce happening at the same time at each stadium. The

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Speaker 7: average stadium capacity for a Taylor Swift concert is fifty

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Speaker 7: four thousand people and each of them, on average spent

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Speaker 7: fifteen hundred dollars in attending the concert, which included the tickets,

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Speaker 7: the hotel, buy food. As Memorilia and Beyonce. Is even

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Speaker 7: an i estimate that Beyonce would produce an even bigger

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Speaker 7: impact because Taylor Swift's concert tours dialing down in North

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Speaker 7: America in August and September, where is Beyonce is just

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Speaker 7: starting up. She has over thirty concerts in the next

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Speaker 7: two months. Each of the concert has an average capacity

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Speaker 7: of seventy thousand, even larger than Taylor Swift, and people

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Speaker 7: who attend Beyonce are slightly wealthier than Taylor Swift, probably

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Speaker 7: because they're older. So altogether you produce this Olympic size

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Speaker 7: kind of event. The economy is actually quite tremendous.

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Speaker 1: Well, wouldn't it be something if Taylor Swift or the

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Speaker 1: kind of data that the Fed depends on in data dependency.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for this, Anna, great having you on with us.

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Speaker 7: Happy to be here.

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Speaker 1: Anna Wong is chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics and

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Speaker 1: coming up here on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we take you

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Speaker 1: to London where the foot Sea reshuffle is about to

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Speaker 1: take place. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the

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Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 1: Up later in our program, we'll take a look at

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Speaker 1: the allegations of election interference against former President Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: But first we go to London, where the cutoff arrives

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Speaker 1: for inclusion in the Footsie one hundred. The benchmark UK

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Speaker 1: index is due for a shakeup as the miners and

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Speaker 1: oil majors that have dominated its ranks sink on fears

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Speaker 1: of weakness in the Chinese economy. One bright spot, though

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Speaker 1: from Britain's high Street, may be set to make a

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Speaker 1: return this quarter. And for more we go to London

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Speaker 1: and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe banker Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 2: At the close of trading on Tuesday, Britain's one hundred

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Speaker 2: biggest public companies will be selected to make up the

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Speaker 2: foot see one hundred. A bit like sports leagues, some

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Speaker 2: face relegation, others promotion company it looks set to re

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Speaker 2: enter the Benchmark index this week is a staple of

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Speaker 2: the British high street. The grocery and clothing chain Marks

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Speaker 2: and Spencer has seen their share price stage to comeback

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Speaker 2: this year, but that's at the expense of others, including

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Speaker 2: the home builder per Simon, which has been a victim

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Speaker 2: of higher interest rates in the downturn in the housing market.

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Speaker 2: I've been discussing this with Bloomberg's UK retail reporter Katie

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Speaker 2: Linsel and equities reporter Lisa fam I started by asking Katie,

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Speaker 2: what's driven the upturn in Marks and Spencer's fortunes.

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Speaker 8: Really, what we're seeing is an improvement on both sides

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Speaker 8: of the business, so both in food and in home

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Speaker 8: and it's quite a long time coming for MINS, because

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Speaker 8: really we've been looking at years, even decades of the

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Speaker 8: turnaround trying to take hold here at this retailer. And

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Speaker 8: if we look at food, firstly, m Ands has really

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Speaker 8: made a lot of effort to show that you can

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Speaker 8: actually shop a full basket of food m Ands, and

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Speaker 8: they've been trying to keep prices down as much as

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Speaker 8: possible to really encourage shoppers to buy their basics with

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Speaker 8: them and not just their sort of premium items. And

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Speaker 8: then if we look at clothing, they've been making a

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Speaker 8: lot of effort to try and fight the image of

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Speaker 8: sort of dowdy, ill fitting, unfashionable clothing and working on

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Speaker 8: their own brands as well as attracting third party brands.

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Speaker 2: Lisa, let's go to you next. What will rejoining the

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Speaker 2: Footy one hundred mean for m and S and for

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Speaker 2: its shares?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, So, as Katie was saying, like m Ands has

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Speaker 9: done really well this year, and it's been reflected in

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Speaker 9: the share prices as well. The stocks has risen more

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Speaker 9: than seventy percent this year and so it's taken as

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Speaker 9: market cap to more than four billion pounds. So the

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Speaker 9: advantage for stocks like Maxi and Spencer to be in

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Speaker 9: the Footy one hundred index is the fact that there

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Speaker 9: are a lot of tracker fans, which, as the name suggests,

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Speaker 9: track the underlying index. So this means that these fans

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Speaker 9: would have to buy the shares in order to replicate

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Speaker 9: the performance of the index. There are also some actively

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Speaker 9: managed fans and so with these funds, they may have

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Speaker 9: a mandate to only invest in foot See one hundred

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Speaker 9: companies in the universe of stocks that they look at

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Speaker 9: alongside other benchmark indexes in other countries and other markets.

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Speaker 9: So that would be another advantage to be part of

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Speaker 9: this blue chip foot See one hundred index.

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Speaker 2: What other changes might we see at the upcoming review.

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Speaker 9: So we could potentially see Detra Pharmaceuticals, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and

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Speaker 9: Diploma going in alongside the m ands. And in terms

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Speaker 9: of who might go out, it might be Aberdeen, Johnson,

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Speaker 9: Matthe Persimon and RS Group. But the final changes will

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Speaker 9: be based on Tuesday's prices. So if we look at

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Speaker 9: RS Group as an example, as of Thursday morning, its

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Speaker 9: market cap is slightly higher than his Scoss, which is

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Speaker 9: also in the foot See one hundred, So there's a

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Speaker 9: chance that RS Group might actually stay in despite the

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Speaker 9: indicative results saying that it might go out. So the

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Speaker 9: market caps between RS Group and his Scots are very close.

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Speaker 2: What then should we be watching for in the run

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Speaker 2: up to that deadline on Tuesday?

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Speaker 9: Yeah exactly. I do know some people who are constantly

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Speaker 9: refreshing to see what the market caps of these two

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Speaker 9: are going to be like. So it's quite an interesting

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Speaker 9: one to watch. And just as a reminder, Akada had

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Speaker 9: been set to exit the Footy one hundred index last quarter,

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Speaker 9: but in the end it kept its spot and British

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Speaker 9: Land was removed instead, so it's still very much up

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Speaker 9: in the air.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting on that point about Accado being of course

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Speaker 2: a big online retailer. To go back to Katie Linsel

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Speaker 2: for more on how the sector in general is facing

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Speaker 2: as well. I mean, cost of living pressures has driven

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Speaker 2: up revenues for many, but retailers, particularly supermarkets, coming under

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Speaker 2: huge pressure about passing on price increases to consumers. How

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Speaker 2: much have these businesses been able to benefit, as it were,

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Speaker 2: from inflation.

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Speaker 10: We did have the traditional Big four UK supermarkets pulled

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Speaker 10: in front of MPs to answer questions on this topic. Recently,

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Speaker 10: and if we look at profits last year for the

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Speaker 10: traditional Big four, they actually fell, margins were tighter. It's

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Speaker 10: clear that supermarkets are under pressure from higher energy bills

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Speaker 10: and also higher labor costs, and so you know, they

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Speaker 10: weren't making more money off the back of this. But still,

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Speaker 10: you know, we're expecting quite big profits this year. I

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Speaker 10: think the supermarkets are really at pains to try and

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Speaker 10: tell the consumer, you know, we are cutting prices wherever possible.

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Speaker 10: We're seeing almost sort of weekly press releases from the

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Speaker 10: supermarkets showing that they are cutting the prices of basics,

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Speaker 10: and the latest one is butter and M and S

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Speaker 10: is no different there. You know, they are really been

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Speaker 10: almost at the forefront and trying to tell consumers, you know,

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Speaker 10: we are keeping prices affordable, especially on basic you know,

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Speaker 10: jacket potatoes, bate beams, trying to paint the image for

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Speaker 10: the consumer be you can buy those items with us,

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Speaker 10: it's not just the sort of premium ready meals.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting to think about this because the question around

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Speaker 2: pricing power for companies that are making consumer goods has

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Speaker 2: very much been in focused because of the rate of inflation.

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Speaker 2: The power that supermarkets have to increase prices is quite

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Speaker 2: limited because these are very thin margin businesses.

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Speaker 10: That's a big debate, you know, looking at the sort

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Speaker 10: of unilevers of this world that have much higher margins

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Speaker 10: versus supermarkets, and it's quite a fiercely fault debate between

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Speaker 10: the supermarkets and their suppliers. You know, who's to blame

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Speaker 10: when it comes to higher prices to the consumers. Supermarkets

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Speaker 10: do have their own brand items as well, and we've

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Speaker 10: seen through the cost living crisis consumers buying more and

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Speaker 10: more of these own brand goods because they are cheaper.

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Speaker 10: And so that's where the supermarkets are really taking control

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Speaker 10: of the narrative and showing this is where we are

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Speaker 10: cutting prices. We are seeing prices costs come through lower

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Speaker 10: in certain commodities and so we are able to cut

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Speaker 10: prices there. So yeah, I think I think it's going

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Speaker 10: to be a sort of ongoing fist debate between the

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Speaker 10: big suppliers and the supermarkets.

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Speaker 2: Katie, what about the competition between SuperM or other among

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Speaker 2: supermarkets over this issue as well? Our customers move moving

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Speaker 2: to the cheaper end of the scale when it comes

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Speaker 2: to where they're shopping.

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Speaker 10: Absolutely, we've seen all through this period of really high inflation,

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Speaker 10: that Alba and Little are really lucking out if you like,

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Speaker 10: they are gaining market share, and Aldi in September last year,

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Speaker 10: so almost a year ago, took the spot of the

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Speaker 10: fourth largest grosser in the UK. They knocked Morrisons off

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Speaker 10: that spot. Morrisons have been much slower to be able

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Speaker 10: to pass on that message to consumers that the prices

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Speaker 10: are coming down, partly because Morrisons produce a lot of

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Speaker 10: their own food, so they feel that impact of inflation

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Speaker 10: much faster. If we look at the sort of premium

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Speaker 10: end at Waitros for example, and Marx expenses, I mean,

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Speaker 10: Weightros have been much slower to flag to consumers that

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Speaker 10: the prices are that they are cutting prices, whereas Marcus

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Speaker 10: Spenser's a really sort of run away with the competition

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Speaker 10: there at that premium end.

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Speaker 2: Lisa fam thinking more broadly about the prospects for UK

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Speaker 2: equities in the next year, what should we be considering

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Speaker 2: when we can say where the new members of the

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Speaker 2: FOOTSI one hundred will go.

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Speaker 9: Inflation seems to be quite sticky. We're dealing with a

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Speaker 9: lot of high interest rates and so it does seem

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Speaker 9: like the outlook is still quite gloomy for UK stocks.

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Speaker 9: At the same time, we did have black Rock Strategists

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Speaker 9: last week they upgraded their view on UK stocks too neutral,

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Speaker 9: so I guess it could be just a case of

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Speaker 9: wait and see in terms of like what happens with

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Speaker 9: UK stocks.

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Speaker 2: Thanks to Bloomberg's UK retail reporter Katie Linsel and equities

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Speaker 2: reporter Lisa fam we will bring you coverage of the

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Speaker 2: FOTZI one hundred reshuffle here on Bloomberg Radio. And another

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Speaker 2: piece of related data we'll be watching for in the

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Speaker 2: coming days is the Shop Price Index in the British

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Speaker 2: Retail Consortium. We'll be looking out to see what it

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Speaker 2: might tell us about the trajectory for the UK's stubbornly

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Speaker 2: high inflation rate. I'm Stephen Carroll in London. You can

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Speaker 2: catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe,

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Speaker 2: beginning at six am in London and one am on

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Speaker 2: Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: All right, thank you, Stephen. Then coming up on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break weekend, a wave of developments related to the

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Speaker 1: allegations of election interference against former President Donald Trump. I'm

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Speaker 1: Nathan Hager, and this is.

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg It a active brokers

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Speaker 5: studio in New York, Bloomberg elemon three oh to Washington,

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Speaker 5: d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one

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Speaker 5: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to

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Speaker 5: the country, Syrius XM Channel one nineteen to London DAB

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Speaker 5: Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app

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Speaker 5: in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager with your global look ahead at the

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Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. It could

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Speaker 1: be a week chuck full of developments for former President

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump in the case where he's accused of election

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Speaker 1: interference in twenty twenty. For more, let's head to our

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington and check in

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee Lyines.

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Speaker 4: That's right, Nathan. This coming Monday here in Washington, Judge

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Speaker 4: Tanya Chutkin will hold her first hearing in the twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty election case against former President Donald Trump, a hearing

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Speaker 4: in which she is expected to announce a trial date.

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Speaker 4: And of course, this will come just days after Trump

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Speaker 4: was booked in Fulton County, Georgia, in a separate state case,

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Speaker 4: though still related to efforts to overturn the result of

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Speaker 4: the last presidential election. It's a lot to go through

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Speaker 4: from both a legal and political perspective. So I've assembled

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Speaker 4: a power team Elizabeth Wasserman, DC based Bloomberg Legal editor

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Speaker 4: and Ryan teeg Beck with Bloomberg National Politics reporter. So, Elizabeth,

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Speaker 4: just to begin, As I said, we're coming off a

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Speaker 4: week in which it was the Georgia twenty twenty election

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Speaker 4: case that was in focus. This one this coming week

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Speaker 4: is a federal case in question. Can you just remind

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Speaker 4: us how they are different.

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Speaker 11: Yes, the federal case was brought by Special Council Jack

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Speaker 11: Smith and his team prosecutors on behalf of the Justice Department,

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Speaker 11: and it's it's looking at it's one part of the

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Speaker 11: Special Council two part investigation. You know, there's the one

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Speaker 11: about the documents down in Florida. This one in Washington

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Speaker 11: is about the twenty twenty election and efforts to overturn

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Speaker 11: the results and by Trump and along with some co conspirators,

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Speaker 11: you know, to keep him in office. So the case

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Speaker 11: in Georgia is a state case and it's a racketeering case.

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Speaker 11: It alleges that there's a conspiracy involving you know, nineteen defendants,

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Speaker 11: including the former president, and that they conspired to you know,

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Speaker 11: deprive you know, the citizens of their their their rightful votes.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good point that there's actually eighteen other

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Speaker 4: co defendants in the Georgia case, where in Jack Smith's case,

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Speaker 4: while there are other co conspirators, it's just the former

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Speaker 4: president that was charged. And of course in Georgia, we

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Speaker 4: learned this past week that Fannie Willis is really trying

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Speaker 4: She's of course the district attorney, really trying to make

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Speaker 4: this thing speedy. She asked for an October twenty third,

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Speaker 4: of twenty twenty three trial date. When it comes to

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Speaker 4: the trial date in the Washington case though, which we

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Speaker 4: expect to be decided this coming week, I believe Jack

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Speaker 4: Smith's off as Elizabeth had asked for a start date

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Speaker 4: of January second, so also going for speed here. I

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Speaker 4: know the Trump team has pushed back on that. Do

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Speaker 4: we have any idea which way Chuckkin's going to lean

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Speaker 4: on this?

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Speaker 11: Well, she is someone who controlled has a very good

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Speaker 11: control over her core calendar, and I have a feeling

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Speaker 11: since the both sides are far apart. You know, Jack

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Speaker 11: Smith once January. Second, the Trump lawyers are suggesting, you know,

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Speaker 11: after the twenty twenty four elections, they actually throughout a

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Speaker 11: trial date of April twenty twenty. That's a big they

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Speaker 11: have to Yeah, I think the the you know, the

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Speaker 11: better is among us, the odds might be greater that

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Speaker 11: she sides more with the prosecution's start date. You know,

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Speaker 11: she has handled a number of January sixth, you know,

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Speaker 11: uh cases involving the riot at the US capital, and

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Speaker 11: she's moved those along very quickly. She made it clear

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Speaker 11: that she intends to move this along very quickly as well.

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Speaker 4: So if she does so, Ryan to bring you in here.

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Speaker 4: Depending on what date she ultimately lands on, if it's

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Speaker 4: January or even really if it's just any time between

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Speaker 4: January and say July, it could fall in the thick

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Speaker 4: of primary season. So what's the political implication there for

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Speaker 4: the former president, who of course is currently running to

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Speaker 4: be president again.

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Speaker 12: Well, there's two effects. And the first is really you

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Speaker 12: can already see, and that is just time. Presidential campaigns,

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Speaker 12: all regardless of how much money they have, have only

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Speaker 12: so much time and number of days that you can

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Speaker 12: hold a rally on number of days that you can

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Speaker 12: do fundraise, number of days you can go do TV

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Speaker 12: interviews or whatever. Donald Trump is not campaigning at the

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Speaker 12: level that he campaigned at twenty sixteen or twenty twenty.

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Speaker 12: He's not holding as many rallies, he's not holding as

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Speaker 12: many events, he's not doing as many interviews. And I

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Speaker 12: think that he did not should do the debate. I

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Speaker 12: think that all of those are related to his legal troubles.

436
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 12: I personally think, and I don't you know, I can't

437
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 12: say this so for sure, but I personally think that

438
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 12: one reason he may have chosen not to debate was

439
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 12: that he would be asked about these criminal cases. And

440
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 12: if I was his lawyer, I would have said, no,

441
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 12: I don't think you should go on national TV and

442
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 12: answer appointed questions from experienced reporters about your multiple criminal

443
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 12: indictments because all of what you said, I mean, you'd

444
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 12: have to give a Miranda warning at the beginning of

445
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 12: the debate. Anything you say can and will be used

446
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 12: against you. Of course it'll be used against him. So

447
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 12: I think that may have been one reason for that,

448
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 12: and it's definitely affecting his campaign schedule. So that's the

449
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 12: first effect. The second effect is I don't know that

450
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 12: we know yet what the effect would be of him

451
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 12: being convicted in one of these cases. It's very easy

452
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,199
Speaker 12: at this point for people to say, well, you know,

453
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 12: I don't know, I still support him whatever. These cases

454
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 12: are political. But if he's convicted by a jury, I

455
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,880
Speaker 12: think that that could potentially have more of an impact

456
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 12: than we've seen from the indictments so far, because that

457
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 12: sends a signal that, like, you know, twelve random people

458
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 12: were pulled in and shown the evidence and came to

459
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 12: a conclusion. I think that there's some voters that might

460
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 12: sway who haven't been swayed so far. But I don't know.

461
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 12: So I don't know either of those things. But they're

462
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 12: both big questions that we'll be watching.

463
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 4: And we're all just gonna basically have to wait and

464
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 4: watch to find out. But if we're playing the hypothetical game,

465
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 4: to write point Elizabeth, if convicted, if he's convicted, theoretically

466
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 4: there's going to be a punishment of consequence of some time.

467
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 4: What's your sense as to whether or not prison time

468
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 4: would ultimately be a reality for a former president of

469
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 4: the United States.

470
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 11: Well, that is the sixty four thousand dollars. Question, isn't

471
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 11: it that it's hard to tell. First, these cases have to,

472
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 11: you know, get to the trial stage. They and his

473
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 11: calendar is clogging up with trial dates. You know, he's

474
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 11: got one in a civil case January fifteenth. He's got

475
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 11: a trial in New York on the hush money charges,

476
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 11: and then falsifying business records March twenty fifth. He has

477
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 11: a May twentieth trial date in cedral Court in Florida

478
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 11: on the classified documents case. And so.

479
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 7: I I don't.

480
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 11: I doubt that we are going to get through all

481
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 11: of these cases before the next election, and you know,

482
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 11: perhaps one or two. But you know, the the the

483
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 11: it's a it's an untried issue whether he you know,

484
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 11: I should say, there's nothing there's nothing stopping him from

485
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 11: serving if he's convicted. There's nothing in the constitution that

486
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 11: prevents that. I don't know if it'll get that far, though,

487
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 11: I yeah, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

488
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're watching history be made in real time here.

489
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 4: And while we don't know if that history is going

490
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 4: to include time in prison for a former president, he

491
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 4: did get a little time in jail in Fulton County

492
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 4: this past week, Ryan, in which other history was made

493
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 4: and that we all saw with a very own eyes

494
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 4: a mug shot of a former president. Walk me through

495
00:28:59,240 --> 00:28:59,959
Speaker 4: that significance.

496
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 12: You know, if you toc tic criminal defense attorneys, they

497
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 12: generally don't like the mug shot, and in a lot

498
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 12: of jurisdictions they no longer do them. I mean the

499
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 12: origins of the mugshot where that you needed some kind

500
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 12: of record of what this person looked like in case

501
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 12: they didn't show up. And there's arguments to be made

502
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 12: that we didn't exactly need a mug shot of say

503
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 12: Rudy Giuliani or Donald Trump, that people know what they

504
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 12: look like, but you know, they were applying a policy

505
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 12: that they had in place.

506
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 4: What a world, What a world we live in. Thank

507
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 4: you for helping us make sense of it. Elizabeth Wasserman,

508
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 4: one of our DC Beast legal reporters and editors. I

509
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 4: should say here at Bloomberg and Ryan Teede back with

510
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 4: Bloomberg National Politics reporter, and Nathan will send it back

511
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 4: to you.

512
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: Thanks for that, Kaylee. That was Bloomberg's sound on co

513
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: host Kaylee Lines, reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine one

514
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: newsroom in Washington, and you can hear sound on every

515
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: weekday from one to three pm Eastern right here on

516
00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak week and look

517
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: at some of the twists and turns ahead for Japan's economy.

518
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hagar, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

519
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories

520
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager. Japan's

521
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: economy is experiencing plenty of twists and turns and it's

522
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: leading to some volatility for investors in the country. For more,

523
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: let's go to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia co host Doug Krisner.

524
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,959
Speaker 3: Nathan, the Japanese economy is bounced back from the pandemic

525
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 3: with surprising force. As an example, second quarter GDP growth

526
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 3: six percent, that was double what economist did forecast. Now

527
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: in the week ahead, we're going to have even more insight.

528
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 3: We'll get the official figures on retail sales, industrial production,

529
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 3: and numbers on the labor market as well. Let's take

530
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 3: a closer look the story on the world's third largest

531
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,479
Speaker 3: economy with our Paul Jackson. Paul as team leader from

532
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's coverage of the economies in Japan and South Korea.

533
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,479
Speaker 3: He joins us from our studios in Tokyo. Thanks for

534
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 3: making time to chat with us, Paul. So what are

535
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 3: we going to learn next week these numbers on factory output.

536
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 3: I guess, as you refer to it in Japan, retail sales,

537
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 3: the job market, how are they expected to come in?

538
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 6: Well, you reference the GDP figure there, and that six

539
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 6: percent sounds pretty good, doesn't it. That's the best result

540
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 6: really since the rebound from the pandemic. But ultimately that

541
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 6: figure is a bit on the flattering side because it

542
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 6: was mainly driven by exports net exports, and if you

543
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 6: look into the details, consumer spending was actually down for

544
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 6: the first time in three quarters. Now that's not good

545
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 6: if you're trying to achieve inflation add a sustainable recovery

546
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 6: in the economy. So we're still not sure how much

547
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 6: this is kind of lurching forward, a sputtering forward, or

548
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 6: whether this is like a consistent recovery in the economy.

549
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 6: So this data next week should help us get a

550
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 6: bit more of a feel for that. And you know,

551
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 6: on that consumer spending point, I think that retail sales

552
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 6: figure will be important. We've been seeing growth of more

553
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 6: than five percent in recent months on a year on

554
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 6: year basis, and I think we definitely want to see

555
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 6: that continuing. Don't forget that these retail sales figures are

556
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 6: inflated by inflation itself, so they're not quite as good

557
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 6: as as they look.

558
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 3: So we seem to be describing a little bit of

559
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 3: a bifurcation in the economy right where the exports may

560
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 3: be holding up reasonably well thanks to and I'm thinking

561
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 3: out loud here, a weaker currency, domestic consumption may be

562
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: a little concerning, and not just that the households may

563
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 3: be holding back, but corporations as well. Is that a

564
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 3: fair statement, Yeah, I.

565
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 6: Think it is. We will see some corporate spending plans

566
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 6: coming out at the end of the week. Ministry of

567
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 6: Finance will collate capital spending. Those figures will be used

568
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 6: to actually revise the GDP figure in a couple of weeks,

569
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 6: So yeah, that will be of high interest to see

570
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 6: whether companies are maintaining positive outlook. And let's face it,

571
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 6: there are some clouds on the horizon. Obviously, we're in

572
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 6: the middle of a global slowdown. What's going on in

573
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 6: China is of great concern. You mentioned the factory output

574
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 6: figures from Japan next week, Well, we're expecting those to

575
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 6: be down as the factory sector kind of like struggles

576
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 6: to really boost outputs in this kind of fragile scenario.

577
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 6: And I think one of the figures that will be

578
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 6: of key interest actually won't be in Japan. It will

579
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 6: be the PMI figures coming out of China. We've seen

580
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 6: a contract in the factory sector there in recent months.

581
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 6: I think we're probably going to see more of that,

582
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 6: And ultimately, if you don't have the Chinese economy kind

583
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 6: of firing on all cylinders, then the prospects both for

584
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 6: global growth and continue to cover in Japan's economy are limited.

585
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 3: Paul, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to

586
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 3: help us understand what's happening where you are in Tokyo

587
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 3: and Japan. More broadly, Paul Jackson, team leader for Bloomberg's

588
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: coverage of the economies in Japan and South Korea, joining

589
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 3: us here. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian Curtis

590
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 3: and myself weekdays for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six

591
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 3: am in Hong Kong, six pm on Wall Street.

592
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 1: Nathan all right, thanks Doug, and that does it for

593
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday

594
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 1: morning at five am Wall Street time for the latest

595
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: on markets overseas and all the news you need to

596
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: start your day. I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us now.

597
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 1: Top stories and global business headlines are hang up right now.

598
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 7: M