WEBVTT - Governors Brace For Winter 0:00:02.000 --> 0:00:06.320 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:10.480 and fifty four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:15.840 Today's main story. Amid a lame duck presidency and with 0:00:15.960 --> 0:00:20.480 the widespread availability of a COVID nineteen vaccine months away, 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:24.720 US governors have become the first line of defense against 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:29.120 the pandemics. Winter onslaught with the holidays around the corner, 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.879 many local authorities have little choice but to act as 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:37.839 the virus sets daily records across the country. But first, 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:45.360 here's what happened in virus news today. A COVID nineteen 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.760 vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and Astra Zeneca 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.200 was shown to prevent a majority of people from getting 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:57.280 the disease. Although positive news, the vaccine fell short of 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:02.000 the bar set by those in development by five and moderna. 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:07.080 On average, the Oxford and astra Zenica vaccine prevented seventy 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:11.320 percent of cases in large trials in the UK and Brazil. 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:15.200 Astra Zenica announced that it would prepare to file its 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:20.240 data to global regulators, including an emergency use listing from 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:24.839 the World Health Organization. Italy has become the second nation 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.800 in the European region after the UK to reach fifty 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:33.800 thousand deaths from the coronavirus. Italy reported six hundred and 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:38.440 thirty daily deaths on Monday as cases surge in the country, 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:44.679 prompting a region by region lockdown. Meanwhile, in Asia, the 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:49.880 highly anticipated travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore was shelved. 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.240 The bubble had once been heralded as the first in 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:56.720 the world, allowing people to travel to and from the 0:01:56.800 --> 0:02:00.920 two areas without the knee to quarantine. Two sides had 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:05.520 previously agreed to suspending the bubble if local infections exceeded 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:10.400 five on a rolling seven day average. Hong Kong reported 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:15.080 sixty three new local cases on Monday. A new launch 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:17.840 date for the travel bubble has yet to be announced, 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:28.560 and now for today's main story. With more than twelve 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:32.280 million cases and over two hundred and fifty thousand deaths, 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:36.120 the US response to COVID nineteen has stood out on 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:41.760 the world stage as ineffectual and scatter shot. Amid surgeon 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:46.359 case counts and a tense presidential transition, governors have had 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:50.200 to face hard choices about how to stem the rising 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:54.400 tide of coronavirus in their states. I spoke to reporter 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:57.520 em A Court who discussed how with a lack of 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:02.000 federal leadership, it has fallen to local authorities to impose 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:07.919 mask mandates, curfews, and potentially even lockdowns before the winter 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:22.360 and the holidays hit. You know, since the pandemic began, 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:27.280 how would you describe the role of state authorities, let's say, 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:32.280 governors in determining their state's response to COVID nineteen. When 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:36.680 we're talking about restrictions, lockdowns, or even say mask requirements. 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:42.840 Throughout this pandemic, governors have really been the front lines 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:47.200 of the COVID response, and we've heard that very clearly 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.560 from the federal government saying states need to take a 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.880 leading role in this because only they can understand the 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:58.640 local conditions, what's appropriate in their states. That kind of 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:02.680 thing and the consequence of has been really a patchwork 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:07.680 of different regulations and conditions in different states. And someone 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:11.080 in New York City, for instance, might travel to another 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:13.560 state and be shocked by what they see going on there, 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.880 because you really do have such drastically different things. You know, 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.640 Indoor dining in one state might be off limits in 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:23.839 another state. There might not even be capacity restrictions on 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:28.479 indoor dining. So it's a pretty big change depending on 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.719 where you are. And I mean, how would you characterize 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:38.000 the relationship, say, between state and federal responsibility in terms 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:42.039 of these mandates or restrictions. And do you think we're 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:47.880 seeing more state action or more governors act due to 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.800 perhaps a lack of leadership from the federal level. Yeah, 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.880 it's a really good question. What you'd hear from the 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:58.000 federal government from the Trump administration is, look, this is 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:00.880 what we want to happen. We want states to take 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.599 the lead on this um. But I think what we've 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:07.520 heard from consistently from public health experts throughout this entire 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:11.000 pandemic has been you need the power of the federal 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:16.039 government marshaling a unified national response, not just because otherwise 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:19.479 you have fifty sets of states grappling with fifty sets 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.960 of policies about how people should behave be behaving, but 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:25.720 also because of the fact that resources that are involved 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.760 here too. Right, We're talking about protective equipment, we're talking 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:32.280 about testing, We're talking about all these different supplies that 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.719 every state needs, and so um this has been a 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:39.000 real point of tension throughout the pandemic. With the election, though, 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:42.520 we are seeing things change quite a bit because suddenly 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:46.680 you have a lame duck administration that won't acknowledge that 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:51.680 it has been defeated in an election, and it's unclear 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.320 that the federal government is going to do anything beyond 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.520 what it's done so far. In some states, we're seeing 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:02.159 governors who have been here too for reluctant to impose 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:06.279 things like mask mandates starting to take those steps. Places 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:11.600 like Iowa, Utah, North Dakota suddenly having mask mandates. We 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.159 were suddenly seeing a period where there is sort of 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.159 a power vacuum and states are kind of having to 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.360 step up because really, in some cases they have they 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:23.120 have no choice. Yeah, and I was hoping you might 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:27.200 actually dig deeper on that of you know, either within 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:31.159 this more recent time frame in terms of this dramatic 0:06:31.240 --> 0:06:33.360 rising cases we're seeing throughout the U S or or 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:37.120 just we're generally throughout these nine months of the pandemic, 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:45.679 what types of restrictions and requirements have we seen governors impose. Yeah, 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:49.560 we're seeing honestly measures that look a lot like the 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:52.360 start of the pandemic that are you know, heavier handed 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:56.080 than we've seen for first periods of months. Right We're 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:59.560 seeing MASK mandates being implemented in states that didn't have 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:04.120 MASK mandates before. We are seeing new capacity restrictions being 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:09.040 placed on businesses, were even seeing curfews in some places. 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.160 We're seeing, you know, the return of stay at home orders, 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:15.760 limited shutdown. So these are things that that really do 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:18.560 kind of feel like deja vu, right um, And I 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.760 think for a long time it was believed that we 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:25.800 would never return to these kinds of aggressive measures, really 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:29.560 replicating some of the periods of time when we didn't 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.080 know anything about this virus, because we know so much 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:34.640 more about the how the virus spreads now and we 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:38.840 can have more targeted measures that can you know, for instance, 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:42.400 shut down specific neighborhoods that are hot spots and closed 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.400 essential business closed businesses that aren't essential. They're things like that. 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:47.920 That's not what's happening now. We're seeing kind of the 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:50.680 return to the days of of lockdowns. We're seeing the 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:54.240 virus so out of control that leaders are are feeling 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:57.080 like they have to really close things down in a 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:02.360 way that's extremely extremely aggressive. For instance, this past weekend, 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:06.440 we even saw Los Angeles county say they're closing outdoor 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:10.160 dining and and the big overarching question is is it 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:12.720 too little, too late? You know, are things so out 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:16.280 of control in this country that these measures won't work 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:20.200 or won't work fast enough. And that raises another point 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:26.480 about how state populations are responding to these new, often 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:31.000 very much increased restrictions. Are people willing to adhere to 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:35.679 these new restrictions As to whether they'll work, We'll have 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:40.160 to see with time, um, but we have seen people 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:44.160 protesting these new restrictions in various states saying, you know, 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:46.680 you don't have control over me. This is, you know, 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:49.160 the government can't tell me what to do or whether 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:53.120 I can gather with people inside of my home for instance. 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.920 You know, it's unclear exactly how widespread that sentiment is. 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.240 I think people in the US are generally seeing these 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.720 measures for what they are, which is really a statement 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:07.440 of how bad things are. Another big question, though, is 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:10.160 you know, when you mandate things like this, you know, 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:13.920 are you really gonna put enforcement behind that? For instance, 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:17.920 I recently heard the Illinois Department of Public Health director 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:21.280 talking about how they had a mask mandate in the state, 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:24.200 but you know, compliance was really only about fifty or 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:26.719 sixty percent, and they didn't have the resources to go 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:30.000 around ticketing people for not wearing masks. So you know, 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.400 things like mask mandates, you know, are only so effective 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:37.439 as you know, if people actually follow them, it's gonna 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:40.120 be interesting to see what happens. There's this real public 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:44.040 private divide emerging between you know, you can shut down, 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:47.280 for instance, non essential businesses, you can limit their capacity, 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:50.720 you can limit their operating hours. But ultimately, you know, 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:54.280 even if you announced restrictions on indoor gatherings, as we've 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:56.280 seen some states do say, oh, you know, limit your 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:59.000 indoor gatherings even in your own home to only ten 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:02.040 or fifteen people. All that's something that's a little bit 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:06.400 harder to enforce. And you bring up a very relevant point, 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:09.240 particularly for this week in terms of gathering in in 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:14.360 private homes. With Thanksgiving coming up on Thursday. This has 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:19.520 been a concern for weeks over a potential further spread 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.679 of COVID nineteen with with families and friends gathering together 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:26.680 for the holiday. What if we heard from state or 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:32.960 local authorities about trying to prevent that exact scenario from happening. 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:36.560 Are we seeing more restrictions or more mandates to try 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:40.920 and tamp down any spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:45.800 This is a huge hot button issue right now in 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:50.240 the United States, and it's really unclear what's going to 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.720 happen after this holiday. I think we're seeing a lot 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:57.080 of early evidence that people are in fact traveling for Thanksgivings. 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.400 We heard the CDC last week say please don't travel 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.320 for Thanksgiving and please don't celebrate with someone who's outside 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.880 of your immediate household. But we have seen data from 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:12.000 you know, airports and airport screenings showing that people are traveling. Um, 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:15.199 we're seeing colleges sending students home for Thanksgiving as well. 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:17.720 A lot of colleges that have done in person semesters 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:21.040 are concluding them at Thanksgiving and sending students home. So 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.160 there's gonna be a degree of travel happening no matter what. 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:29.120 By and large, the guidance has been please don't celebrate 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.520 a big Thanksgiving. Please be as careful as possible. If 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.400 you're going to celebrate Thanksgiving, please do it outside and 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:39.640 limit how many people. But we are seeing some governors 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.240 saying I'm not I'm not going to tell you not 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.560 to celebrate Thanksgiving. UM. For instance, the governor of South 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:49.320 Dakota recently said, you know, I'm not going to tell 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:52.320 you not to spend time together this Thanksgiving. She she 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.680 actually said in South Dakota, we won't stop or discourage 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.840 you from thinking God and spending time together this Thanksgiving. 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:03.720 And so it does has become this very politically fraud topic, 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:08.120 and it's very emotional. You know. I think it's gonna 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:12.080 be really important for public health officials to acknowledge some 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:15.199 of the emotional burden of this, you know, as we 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.679 proceed forward, because it's it's holiday season, right, It's not 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.120 just Thanksgiving, It's not just Christmas. We have a whole 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:24.040 range of holidays ahead, and this is the time people 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:33.480 traditionally come together. Suddenly that's very dangerous. That was Emma Cord. 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.120 And that's it for our show today. For coverage of 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.000 the outbreak from one D and twenty bureaus around the world, 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:43.800 visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.440 the show, please leave us a review and a rating 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:50.040 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:54.360 help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:59.439 edition is produced by Topor Foreheads, Jordan gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:03.679 and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:08.120 Emma Court. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:12.560 Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.880 of podcasts. Thanks for listening.