1 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 2 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: and fifty four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 3 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: Today's main story. Amid a lame duck presidency and with 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: the widespread availability of a COVID nineteen vaccine months away, 5 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: US governors have become the first line of defense against 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: the pandemics. Winter onslaught with the holidays around the corner, 7 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: many local authorities have little choice but to act as 8 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: the virus sets daily records across the country. But first, 9 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 1: here's what happened in virus news today. A COVID nineteen 10 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and Astra Zeneca 11 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 1: was shown to prevent a majority of people from getting 12 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: the disease. Although positive news, the vaccine fell short of 13 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: the bar set by those in development by five and moderna. 14 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: On average, the Oxford and astra Zenica vaccine prevented seventy 15 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: percent of cases in large trials in the UK and Brazil. 16 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: Astra Zenica announced that it would prepare to file its 17 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: data to global regulators, including an emergency use listing from 18 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,839 Speaker 1: the World Health Organization. Italy has become the second nation 19 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: in the European region after the UK to reach fifty 20 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: thousand deaths from the coronavirus. Italy reported six hundred and 21 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: thirty daily deaths on Monday as cases surge in the country, 22 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: prompting a region by region lockdown. Meanwhile, in Asia, the 23 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: highly anticipated travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore was shelved. 24 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: The bubble had once been heralded as the first in 25 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: the world, allowing people to travel to and from the 26 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: two areas without the knee to quarantine. Two sides had 27 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: previously agreed to suspending the bubble if local infections exceeded 28 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: five on a rolling seven day average. Hong Kong reported 29 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: sixty three new local cases on Monday. A new launch 30 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: date for the travel bubble has yet to be announced, 31 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: and now for today's main story. With more than twelve 32 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: million cases and over two hundred and fifty thousand deaths, 33 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: the US response to COVID nineteen has stood out on 34 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: the world stage as ineffectual and scatter shot. Amid surgeon 35 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: case counts and a tense presidential transition, governors have had 36 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: to face hard choices about how to stem the rising 37 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: tide of coronavirus in their states. I spoke to reporter 38 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: em A Court who discussed how with a lack of 39 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: federal leadership, it has fallen to local authorities to impose 40 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: mask mandates, curfews, and potentially even lockdowns before the winter 41 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 1: and the holidays hit. You know, since the pandemic began, 42 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: how would you describe the role of state authorities, let's say, 43 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: governors in determining their state's response to COVID nineteen. When 44 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: we're talking about restrictions, lockdowns, or even say mask requirements. 45 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: Throughout this pandemic, governors have really been the front lines 46 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: of the COVID response, and we've heard that very clearly 47 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: from the federal government saying states need to take a 48 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: leading role in this because only they can understand the 49 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: local conditions, what's appropriate in their states. That kind of 50 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: thing and the consequence of has been really a patchwork 51 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: of different regulations and conditions in different states. And someone 52 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: in New York City, for instance, might travel to another 53 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: state and be shocked by what they see going on there, 54 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: because you really do have such drastically different things. You know, 55 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: Indoor dining in one state might be off limits in 56 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 1: another state. There might not even be capacity restrictions on 57 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 1: indoor dining. So it's a pretty big change depending on 58 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 1: where you are. And I mean, how would you characterize 59 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: the relationship, say, between state and federal responsibility in terms 60 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: of these mandates or restrictions. And do you think we're 61 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: seeing more state action or more governors act due to 62 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: perhaps a lack of leadership from the federal level. Yeah, 63 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: it's a really good question. What you'd hear from the 64 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: federal government from the Trump administration is, look, this is 65 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: what we want to happen. We want states to take 66 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 1: the lead on this um. But I think what we've 67 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: heard from consistently from public health experts throughout this entire 68 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: pandemic has been you need the power of the federal 69 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 1: government marshaling a unified national response, not just because otherwise 70 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 1: you have fifty sets of states grappling with fifty sets 71 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: of policies about how people should behave be behaving, but 72 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 1: also because of the fact that resources that are involved 73 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: here too. Right, We're talking about protective equipment, we're talking 74 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: about testing, We're talking about all these different supplies that 75 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: every state needs, and so um this has been a 76 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: real point of tension throughout the pandemic. With the election, though, 77 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: we are seeing things change quite a bit because suddenly 78 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: you have a lame duck administration that won't acknowledge that 79 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: it has been defeated in an election, and it's unclear 80 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: that the federal government is going to do anything beyond 81 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: what it's done so far. In some states, we're seeing 82 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 1: governors who have been here too for reluctant to impose 83 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 1: things like mask mandates starting to take those steps. Places 84 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 1: like Iowa, Utah, North Dakota suddenly having mask mandates. We 85 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: were suddenly seeing a period where there is sort of 86 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: a power vacuum and states are kind of having to 87 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 1: step up because really, in some cases they have they 88 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: have no choice. Yeah, and I was hoping you might 89 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: actually dig deeper on that of you know, either within 90 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:31,159 Speaker 1: this more recent time frame in terms of this dramatic 91 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: rising cases we're seeing throughout the U S or or 92 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: just we're generally throughout these nine months of the pandemic, 93 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:45,679 Speaker 1: what types of restrictions and requirements have we seen governors impose. Yeah, 94 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: we're seeing honestly measures that look a lot like the 95 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: start of the pandemic that are you know, heavier handed 96 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: than we've seen for first periods of months. Right We're 97 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: seeing MASK mandates being implemented in states that didn't have 98 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: MASK mandates before. We are seeing new capacity restrictions being 99 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: placed on businesses, were even seeing curfews in some places. 100 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: We're seeing, you know, the return of stay at home orders, 101 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: limited shutdown. So these are things that that really do 102 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: kind of feel like deja vu, right um, And I 103 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: think for a long time it was believed that we 104 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: would never return to these kinds of aggressive measures, really 105 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: replicating some of the periods of time when we didn't 106 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: know anything about this virus, because we know so much 107 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: more about the how the virus spreads now and we 108 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: can have more targeted measures that can you know, for instance, 109 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: shut down specific neighborhoods that are hot spots and closed 110 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: essential business closed businesses that aren't essential. They're things like that. 111 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: That's not what's happening now. We're seeing kind of the 112 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: return to the days of of lockdowns. We're seeing the 113 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: virus so out of control that leaders are are feeling 114 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: like they have to really close things down in a 115 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: way that's extremely extremely aggressive. For instance, this past weekend, 116 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: we even saw Los Angeles county say they're closing outdoor 117 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: dining and and the big overarching question is is it 118 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: too little, too late? You know, are things so out 119 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: of control in this country that these measures won't work 120 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: or won't work fast enough. And that raises another point 121 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: about how state populations are responding to these new, often 122 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: very much increased restrictions. Are people willing to adhere to 123 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 1: these new restrictions As to whether they'll work, We'll have 124 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: to see with time, um, but we have seen people 125 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: protesting these new restrictions in various states saying, you know, 126 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 1: you don't have control over me. This is, you know, 127 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: the government can't tell me what to do or whether 128 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: I can gather with people inside of my home for instance. 129 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: You know, it's unclear exactly how widespread that sentiment is. 130 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: I think people in the US are generally seeing these 131 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 1: measures for what they are, which is really a statement 132 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: of how bad things are. Another big question, though, is 133 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 1: you know, when you mandate things like this, you know, 134 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: are you really gonna put enforcement behind that? For instance, 135 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: I recently heard the Illinois Department of Public Health director 136 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: talking about how they had a mask mandate in the state, 137 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: but you know, compliance was really only about fifty or 138 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,719 Speaker 1: sixty percent, and they didn't have the resources to go 139 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: around ticketing people for not wearing masks. So you know, 140 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: things like mask mandates, you know, are only so effective 141 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 1: as you know, if people actually follow them, it's gonna 142 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: be interesting to see what happens. There's this real public 143 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: private divide emerging between you know, you can shut down, 144 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: for instance, non essential businesses, you can limit their capacity, 145 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: you can limit their operating hours. But ultimately, you know, 146 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: even if you announced restrictions on indoor gatherings, as we've 147 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: seen some states do say, oh, you know, limit your 148 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: indoor gatherings even in your own home to only ten 149 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: or fifteen people. All that's something that's a little bit 150 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: harder to enforce. And you bring up a very relevant point, 151 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: particularly for this week in terms of gathering in in 152 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: private homes. With Thanksgiving coming up on Thursday. This has 153 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: been a concern for weeks over a potential further spread 154 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen with with families and friends gathering together 155 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 1: for the holiday. What if we heard from state or 156 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: local authorities about trying to prevent that exact scenario from happening. 157 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 1: Are we seeing more restrictions or more mandates to try 158 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: and tamp down any spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. 159 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: This is a huge hot button issue right now in 160 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: the United States, and it's really unclear what's going to 161 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: happen after this holiday. I think we're seeing a lot 162 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: of early evidence that people are in fact traveling for Thanksgivings. 163 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: We heard the CDC last week say please don't travel 164 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 1: for Thanksgiving and please don't celebrate with someone who's outside 165 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: of your immediate household. But we have seen data from 166 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: you know, airports and airport screenings showing that people are traveling. Um, 167 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,199 Speaker 1: we're seeing colleges sending students home for Thanksgiving as well. 168 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: A lot of colleges that have done in person semesters 169 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: are concluding them at Thanksgiving and sending students home. So 170 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a degree of travel happening no matter what. 171 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: By and large, the guidance has been please don't celebrate 172 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: a big Thanksgiving. Please be as careful as possible. If 173 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: you're going to celebrate Thanksgiving, please do it outside and 174 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: limit how many people. But we are seeing some governors 175 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: saying I'm not I'm not going to tell you not 176 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: to celebrate Thanksgiving. UM. For instance, the governor of South 177 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: Dakota recently said, you know, I'm not going to tell 178 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: you not to spend time together this Thanksgiving. She she 179 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: actually said in South Dakota, we won't stop or discourage 180 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: you from thinking God and spending time together this Thanksgiving. 181 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: And so it does has become this very politically fraud topic, 182 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: and it's very emotional. You know. I think it's gonna 183 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 1: be really important for public health officials to acknowledge some 184 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: of the emotional burden of this, you know, as we 185 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 1: proceed forward, because it's it's holiday season, right, It's not 186 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: just Thanksgiving, It's not just Christmas. We have a whole 187 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: range of holidays ahead, and this is the time people 188 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: traditionally come together. Suddenly that's very dangerous. That was Emma Cord. 189 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: And that's it for our show today. For coverage of 190 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: the outbreak from one D and twenty bureaus around the world, 191 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like 192 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating 193 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 194 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 195 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 1: edition is produced by Topor Foreheads, Jordan gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, 196 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 197 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 1: Emma Court. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 198 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 1: Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 199 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening.