WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 30th, 2026 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.400 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.840 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.440 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Brian Gander of Stephol 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.320 writes the following, Warsh has a history of hawkish FEUs 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:43.159 which run contrary to Trump's goal. Brian joined us now 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.159 for more bran That begs the question how did we 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:45.600 get here? 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.120 You know, I think you have to tip your hat 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:52.199 to Kevin Walsh. I think the politics that went into this, 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:55.160 there was a campaign. Basically, I think he ran a 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:57.880 very good campaign to get the job. I mean, we've 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:01.680 had a series of stories and new use leaks criticizing 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.840 the other candidates, and I'm not you know, I have 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.160 no personal knowledge who was behind that, but who's the 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:10.640 last man standing Kevin mahsh So you would assume that 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:14.600 there were some fingerprints on the effort that went into 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:17.760 knocking down the other candidates. And let's not forget I 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:22.160 mean with Donald Trump, personal relations matter a lot. And 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.639 Walsh's father in law and Trump went to college together 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:30.559 and or have business relationships going back decades. So there's 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.440 always that angle that I think people overlook. You know, 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:37.560 personality matters for Trump. Remember a lot of the nominees 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.319 that have not worked out for him. Over time, he 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.440 will turn and afterwards I'll say, well that person interviewed great. 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:45.600 I think Kevin Walsh interviewed great. 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:48.120 You know, Brian, I'm glad you brought that up because 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.000 also there was a recent story about how Ron Lauder 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:53.360 had this deal with Ukraine. Of course, as the Trump 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:55.960 administration is trying to make sure that investors are there 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.800 if they get a peace deal to rebuild that country. 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:01.360 Are you saying potential Kevin Walsh is in this position 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:04.280 because his proximity to power, not exactly how he thinks 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:05.120 about the Federal Reserve. 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:07.640 I think it's a factor. 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.880 I mean, I can't rank what the factors are, but 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.359 you know, kind of reiterating my earlier point with Donald Trump, 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.960 personal relations matter. He wants to trust you, he wants 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.680 to know you, and he just wants to feel good 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:24.760 about you. And that personal connection that he has through laughter, 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:27.639 I think matters. I think mattered in the process. I 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:30.920 think it gave Wash and you know, an advantage that 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.400 some other candidate. It's like a Rick Reader who did 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.600 not have personal connections to the White House and to 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.000 the President, does not have a long history with the president. 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.400 I think that helped Wash hurt Reader. 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:42.960 I think it. 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:44.600 Hurt Christopher Waller a little bit. 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:46.200 Quite frankly, Again, I have. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.640 No personal knowledge of this, but there doesn't seem to 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.680 be a close personal connection with Waller and the President, 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.160 and I think that hurt. There was a personal connection 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:59.600 is a personal connection with Kevin Hassett. But you know, again, 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:01.680 some of the some of the stories that came out 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:04.360 were less than flattering about what how the FED may 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:08.080 operate under Hassett, how the markets react, and maybe Trump 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:09.520 took took a note of that. 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:10.959 He said, how the market reacts? 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.359 Brian, do you think that the move that we're seeing 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:16.120 this morning is enough to make President Trump start to 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:17.799 think did I make the right choice? 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:19.160 No? 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:24.720 I mean unless something changes during the confirmation process, but 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:27.080 the immediate market reaction is not. 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:29.520 As if the immediate. 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:33.280 Market reaction was enough, we'd have, you know, policy whip 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.000 song all over the place. Yes, the White House clearly 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.200 looks at the markets, but I don't think there's always 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.840 a knee jerk reaction to it. Let's see what happens 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:42.600 over the next couple of months. Let's see what happens 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.600 with the confirmation process, how that plays out. You know, 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.480 as it has been discussed, it could be lengthy. There's 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.200 going to be some political drama around it. It's not 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.680 just Tom Tellis. Rampaul is going to have a problem 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:55.120 on the Center floor if we get there. 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:57.840 This is going to be a very. 0:03:57.600 --> 0:04:03.400 Interesting confirmation process. And maybe something during that time pops 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:09.240 up that gives the President time to pause, reconsider again. 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.440 That's highly, highly speculative, but it's highly unlikely, but it's 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:13.200 not impossible. 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:14.680 Stay with us. 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:27.960 More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Senator Tom Taillis 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:30.760 from North Carolina joins US small for more. Senator, welcome 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:32.799 to the program. So you have been vowing to block 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:36.279 any nomination to the Federal Reserve until the DJ wraps 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.360 up its investigation. We have some news this morning. As 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:42.120 you know, Kevin Walsh has been nominated by the President 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:45.000 of the United States to succeed chair and power. Does 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:46.080 it change anything for you. 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:50.120 Sir, No, it does. I am pleased with the nominee. 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.480 I think that by most accounts he is well regarded. 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:57.760 But we still have to clear the current matter. They're 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:03.320 pursuing a on the basis of criminal intent testimony and 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:08.039 a banking committee hearing that clearly had no criminal intent. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:12.880 So to me, you got some assistant US attorney with 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:18.040 a dream in the DC district that should really determine 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:22.160 whether or not this frivolous prosecution is worth holding up 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:23.559 a fed born seat. 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.279 Senator, we have some time between now and May four 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:29.320 that investigation to go away and for the confirmation process 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:31.559 to open up. Have you given thoughts to what would 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:34.320 happen if we don't have that time we get to 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.760 May this is still lingering and the chairman steps away. 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:39.680 What happens at it's help of the feder Reserve. 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.479 Well, I think that we all need to understand we 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:48.440 still have a working quorum of members, whether or not 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.680 they have an acting chair. As a decision that the 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:55.200 President and assume the Treasury Secretary and others can look at. 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:57.880 But that's not my problem. We're here because of them, 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:00.800 We're not here because of me, and so I think 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.440 they should work expeditiously if they really do. I'm not 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:05.600 an attorney. I watch a lot of crime shows, but 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:09.320 doesn't look like there was any criminal intent here. They 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:12.200 have to determine whether or not it's worth grinding this out. 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:15.279 Like I said, I didn't put us here. Some assisted 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:19.720 US attorney in d C District decided to put us here, 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:22.280 and they've got determined if they have a case it's 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:23.000 worth pursuing. 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.320 Senator Tillis, has anyone from the administration or the Department 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.320 of Justice reached out to you about the process of 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.160 how this could go down or giving you confidence that 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:35.120 this will be dropped in time for the confirmation hearing 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:35.760 to go forward? 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:40.200 Well, at LISA, I'd never talked about my conversations with 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.760 any members. People always ask me what goes on at lunch. 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.839 I just don't have those conversations, but my public statements 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:47.920 stand for themselves. 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:50.680 Is closing the investigation enough a Senator, or do you 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:53.800 need other assurances that you think this administration is going 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:55.320 to respect the FED independence. 0:06:56.360 --> 0:06:59.560 Well, right now, I think you do that by making 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.560 a judge. Look, we've got two cases here, right, We've 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:04.839 got the Cook case and we have the Power case. 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:10.160 Both of those to me are instances of independence, and 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:13.280 I'm staying focused on that one goal. I'm not really 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.760 persuaded or even willing to entertain any discussions to take 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:17.560 me off that goal. 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.400 Okay, but you just mentioned the Lisa Cook case. Do 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:23.000 you also need to see that wrapped up either by 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:24.800 the Supreme Court in order to move forward? 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:28.640 Yeah? I do. I mean because look, I mean we're 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:33.080 talking about what looks like a paperwork error or if 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:36.840 there was, if there was a mistake long before she 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:41.160 was confirmed for the board. It's like, my goodness, guys, 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:44.040 I mean, I don't know. Maybe Paulty or somebody thought 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:45.440 that that was cute. I didn't. 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:47.000 So just to be. 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.040 Clear, it is not just the DOJ investigation to the 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:52.440 FED that you need wrapped up. You also need the 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:55.720 Supreme Court case wrapped up. So it's two issues right 0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:59.200 now and blocks for you to move forward with Kevin 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:00.680 Warsh Yeah, well. 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:04.240 No, let me let me buy fartate these one is 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:08.480 moving forward with another that the case that will prevent 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:14.080 me considering any board nominee is the Powell case. Uh, 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:16.840 but I will not move forward. So for the for 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:21.000 the FED chair, which we know expiers in February. Uh. 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:25.320 The other case we have, you know, the Myron term 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:29.120 is about to expire because he was filling up, you know, 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:33.400 basically six weeks or I'm sorry, six months, we've got 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:37.000 the Cook seat. Those are ones that are really going 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:40.160 to be I'll take a look at the candidate, I'll 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.440 take a look at how it would affect the board. Look, 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:44.880 this is all in my opinion, this is all about 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:47.640 sending a signal to the markets and to the business 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:54.160 community that FED independence is critically important. And going after 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.920 the chair I think took a stool out of the 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.960 foundation of people's confidence, a lag out of the stool 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.600 in the case of Cook, I do believe that it's 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.640 another example of a trend, and the Senate has to 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:09.720 stand in the breach. We have to make sure that 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:13.280 the FED maintains its independence, and we cannot reward any 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:17.360 bad behavior that seems like it's surely motivated not by 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:20.480 the substance of the allegations, but by the interest in 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:22.280 trying to undermind the Fed independence. 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.319 The Senator, what's your understanding as to whether the Federal 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:28.079 Reserve is cooperating with that investigation? Some conflicting reports over 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:30.120 the past few days. What you'll read on the situation. 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:35.480 I you know, I'm not really sure, Jonathan. I'm going 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:37.600 to leave that. That's a better question to ask the 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:38.959 administration of the DOJ. 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:40.840 What if we get the opportunity to speak to them, 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:42.880 I'm sure we'll ask. I've got the opportunity to ask 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:45.439 you about the man and not just the process. You 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.800 said this morning, and you've said it again that Kevin 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.400 wassh is a qualified nominee with a deep understanding of 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.240 monetary policy. For those familiar with Kevin Walsh in his 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:56.040 time at the Federal Reserve back in the financial crisis, 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:58.840 they have considered him to be on the more hawkish 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:01.400 side of the spectrum of the on the FOMC. And 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:03.800 there is some debate this morning, Centator about what Kevin 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.360 Walsh actually stands for, given that we know the president 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:09.599 wants lower interest rates, what's your understanding of what he 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:10.160 stands for? 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:16.480 Well, you know, with Chair Powell, I haven't agreed with 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:20.959 all of his opinions. I'm not an economist or his positions, 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:24.120 and sometimes I may be more hawkish than Chair Powell. 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:31.719 So coming in, I think Walsh is a good independent. 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:36.000 He's got an extraordinary reputation in a community of economists 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:39.840 and people focused on the FED. I don't think that 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.920 he would want to destroy his reputation by being independent. 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.840 You know, you could have hawkish members like Waller and others, 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.840 and I'm fine with them on the board to stretch 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.199 the thinking. But I don't believe he comes in is 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.319 more or less going to do the bidding of the administration, 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:56.960 which is critically important and incidentally, I should say it's 0:10:57.000 --> 0:10:59.880 critically important for the health and hygiene of the administration. 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:02.720 Senator tell Us, does this give you any more confidence 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:05.480 that actually the independence of the Federal Reserve will not 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.960 be undermined, that this actually is going to be a 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:11.960 proper process once some of the roadblocks you're talking about 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:13.480 are going to be cleared. 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:17.240 Yeah, I think so, Lisa. And look, this is actually 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:22.240 democracy and institutional separation at its finest. We have a disagreement, 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:24.760 and we have a mechanism in place for resolving this 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:27.360 and moving on. I hope that no one in the 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:30.880 administration takes personal offense to this. I'm doing my job. 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.439 Senator, do you have any understanding of the timeline? 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:39.840 Well, you know, the investigations can go on forever. I mean, 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:42.679 you could see one scenario where Chair Powell has two 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:46.079 years left on his term even after he comes off 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:48.360 the board. So I mean you could see this going 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:50.840 on for two years or in my case, three hundred 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:52.199 and thirty nine days. 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.200 Because three hundred and thirty nine days that's when you're 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.720 going to be retiring. And I know, Lisa ash you 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:00.640 have had any conversation, and I want to ask you 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:04.120 about those conversations, But have you, guys seen any indications 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.240 from anyone that they do want to wrap up the 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.679 DOJ investigation as soon as possible? 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:13.719 Well, you know, I think and I think that the 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:20.080 fact that they're putting forward this nominee knowing that it 0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:23.400 would be impossible to get helm through with the current 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:26.640 position that I've taken, it suggests to me that maybe 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.160 they are trying to find a way to deal with this. 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.880 It could be adjudicated expeditiously, or it could be just 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.560 determining that they also agree that there was no criminal 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.599 intent and the chairs testimony and the Banking committee that 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:39.520 I participated in. 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.200 As soon as you just quickly, have you spoken to 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:42.800 the White House as they reached out? 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.840 You know, like I said, I have ongoing discussions. So 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:51.200 the President I probably communicate once or twice a week 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:53.959 at least through texts. So I have ongoing discussions. I'm 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.200 not going to talk about the content of them. Jonathan, 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:58.840 kind of groundhog Day. I'm going to answer the same 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:00.439 question every day. 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:02.920 Good movie I heard, Senator. 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:04.080 We appreciate it's time. 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.079 Thanks for jumping on the code. Stay with us. 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:20.320 Multil Index Savannans coming up after this. Apple Shafes, Parent 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.520 Gang sound study. Tech Giant posted best It's best ever 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.880 a quarter of sales and a forecast one of our 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.600 estimates thanks to record I find sales. Joining us now 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.880 to discuss is down Ice of wet Bush. Thank good morning. 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.160 Get to say it numbers a phenomenal Let's just start 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.040 with the numbers of themselves. Where else did that growth 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:35.840 in China come from? 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.480 I mean, look, that's you know, it's pin up demand 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:41.199 and then they're having success. I mean I found seventeen 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.640 it's kind of you know, it's been sleepy, but actually 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:46.760 a pretty huge upgrade. Second, I think you see in 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:47.840 the numbers. 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:49.520 You know obviously the stock reaction. 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:54.160 Look, I'd say it's it's a yawner because investors are 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:57.240 just so laser focused on AI. 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:57.559 Right. 0:13:57.600 --> 0:13:59.720 And then there was like how they're gonna monetize what's 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.600 that strategy? Cook talked about it a little, but in 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.320 terms of the actual numbers and services and iPhone, Look, 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.320 it was sort of a best case scenario. And I 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:11.079 think now it's really about showing how they're going to 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.120 monetize on AI. That's going to be their story for 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:15.240 twenty twenty six. 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:15.600 Cost. 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:17.559 We need to talk about cost this well, something the 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.160 typically doesn't come up, but it was anticipated this time around. 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:21.680 One thing's getting more expensive. 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:23.680 Yeah, just memory, right, I mean if you look at 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.920 everything as you sand disk and what's happening on chips, 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.520 it's supplied dram pricing everything that's happened across the board. 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.000 But our view is like, ultimately when it comes to 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.240 iPhone eighteen, they're going to have to raise prices probably 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:38.040 by one hundred, one hundred and fifty dollars. So it's 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:41.160 something that we worry about less from a margin perspective, 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:45.040 but look, the reality is is that this stock being 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:48.000 three twenty five, three fifty or where it is today. 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:51.320 It's not going to be because of margins, because of iPhone, 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.160 because it's served. It's about showing, truly that they have 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.040 an AI strategy they're going to actually roll out that 0:14:58.040 --> 0:14:58.960 they can montize. 0:14:58.960 --> 0:14:59.080 Well. 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.440 Part one of the pig skepticism behind Apple and the 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:05.160 reason why it's underperformed since December since it hit a record, 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.200 has been this question around is it just an iPhone company? 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:10.200 Has it been able to diversify in a meaningful way. 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.240 Yes, you did see that thirty billion dollars coming from services, 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.720 but wearables the macline not seeing that same kind of growth. 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.480 And I just wonder whether it's enough to just say 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:21.360 that iPhone eighteen is going to come out with some 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.880 incredible AI innovation and that's going to change the trajectory 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.920 and some of the concerns that they can't move away 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:29.000 from this one product. 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.840 Yeah, I mean, look to your point, like, the reality is, 0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:35.400 like the core, the ingredients, the hearts and lungs of 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.400 Apple are always going to be iPhone relative to as 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.800 a percent of revenue. But I think their culture has 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.840 definitely hurt them the last few years, especially because Ai'm 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.720 not doing acquisitions and maybe they've done you know, like 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.240 recently that they've done one a smart one. But the 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.320 problem is that investors they're not going to give them credit, 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:56.680 which speaks to our point like this is the year 0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.960 from Google to Siri to WWDC to Role. 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:01.800 It's not gonna be on the hardware side. 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.960 It's going to be how they monetize subscription in AI 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:07.400 for the two point five billion iOS devices. 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:09.240 So we've already seen this. With respect to the earnings 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:11.640 from Microsoft and from Meta, Meta was rewarded because they 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.400 showed how they were deploying this in terms of their advertising. 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.160 Microsoft was penalized because guess what, they have to spend 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:18.880 that much more and they're not seeing the benefits as 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.640 quickly as people were expecting. What do you think investors 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:23.120 are getting wrong? So I know you're really bullish and 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.520 you think that people are underappreciating how quickly this can 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.320 be rolled out? What are people getting wrong about what 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.800 they're seeing in those numbers from say Microsoft or some 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.280 of the skepticism around Apple about how quickly this can 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:33.760 be deployed. 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:34.800 It's a great question. 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.160 Look, I mean Microsoft is almost meadow last quarter you know, 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.400 in terms of the cap aacs and then now they're 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:44.640 doing a you know, a ticket take perode for Zuckerberg 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:47.080 and Meta, right. So I think it just comes down 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.000 that for these companies, the challenge is like you have 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.480 a fourth indust revolution. There's no anyone says AI bubble 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.880 is not I don't think plugged into what's happening in 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.160 terms of overall spending on what we're seeing, even on 0:16:59.280 --> 0:16:59.880 physical AI. 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:01.520 Roboducts, autonomous and everything. 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.399 But the reality is that for these companies it's a 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.240 balancing act and if you just manage it by a 0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:10.520 quarter or two quarters, they'll lose out. And I think 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:13.600 for Nadella and Microsoft that they got to spend on cabacs. 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.879 Now do I think that conference call is probably a 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:21.879 C plus relative to communication. I think that was disappointing 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:22.639 and I think. 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:23.440 That that really calls. 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.679 I can't just ask it about conference calle Now it's 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.320 worth three hundred and seventy five billion dollars to a company. 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:31.560 I mean seriously, doesn't that how you use something about 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:32.560 the price of something? 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.720 Yeah, And I think what it does it shows the 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:39.440 sensitivity from investors and you see the software self look 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:43.359 at service now and software right now? Is that investors 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.200 are so hygh percent you obviously talk about in the 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.199 show all the time. Is that is capbacks? When am 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:51.320 I going to see the modernization? When are we going 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.760 to see the growth Azure? Is it forty percent? 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.560 Growth? Is it thirty nine percent? Okay, what's the whisper number? 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:01.480 So and I think on the conference call, investors want 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:05.959 to see that cap bax toward Azure, toward toward cloud now. 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.479 I think, on the other hand, like when you listenay, 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:11.600 like when we see like alphabet next week, I think 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:13.800 that's one Like they're now in a more of a 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.880 pole position. But a year ago right in New York City, 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.159 cab driver one touch, it was Barish on it. So 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.080 I think that's that's the reality of what we've seen 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:22.680 in big tech. 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:22.919 Dan. 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:24.879 When it comes to Tesla, do you think they merged 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:28.960 with SpaceX or do you think it's XAI and SpaceX. 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:32.159 So, I think it's SpaceX and x AI, But I 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:35.119 believe Tesla is going to own a piece of that. 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:36.520 I think that's sort of our view. 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:39.480 And you made a great point because the reality is 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.760 like the future from USK, it's not it's not delivery 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.520 it's not call the future and we talk about all times. 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:51.240 It's autonomous, it's robotics. And this is really slowly, piece 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:55.240 by piece, brick by brick, him building what's essentially like 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:59.159 the AI sort of ecosystem. And it just that's essential, 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:00.880 I think, the step by step process. 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.879 But if he's eyeing an IPO in June, how quickly 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:04.199 does this. 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:04.920 Need to get done? 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:05.399 Oh? 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:07.640 I think in the next few months. In other words, 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:10.040 like this is something like before March madness. 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:12.440 This is going to have to hit to give some 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:16.119 time like before March, because especially with an IPO, you 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:16.960 know in the summer. 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:18.120 How much is it being. 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.600 Driven by the fact that he is the underdog based 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:22.960 on China's development of electric vehicles? How much is this 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:25.359 not a failed bet but an idea that he cannot 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:27.800 get dominance in the way that he once envisioned in 0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:28.879