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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal

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Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you.

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Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work.

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Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC.

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Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions

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Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of

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Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the

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Speaker 1: listen to the entire show ad free and uncut, an

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Speaker 1: hour early before everyone else. You get to hear our

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Speaker 1: reactions to each other's monologues. You get to participate and

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Speaker 1: weekly ask me any things, and you don't need to

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Speaker 1: hear our annoying voices pitching you like I am right now?

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Speaker 1: com become a Premium member today, which is available in

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Speaker 1: the show notes. Enjoy the show, guys, Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have Bristal Indeed, we do lots of

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Speaker 1: big stories breaking this morning that we want to get

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Speaker 1: to developments in Ukraine, potential maybe negotiations over a peace deals,

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Speaker 1: some possibly hopeful signs, but I would very much moderate

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Speaker 1: your expectations. There also Biden trying to clean things up

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Speaker 1: and probably just making things worse. We also got a

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Speaker 1: new budget from him, heavy on military spending, very different

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Speaker 1: trajectory than the beginning of the ministration. We'll talk about

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Speaker 1: all of that. Latest signs that we may be headed

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Speaker 1: into a recession, A key indicator that always precedes recessions

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Speaker 1: in the last fifty years has now indicated that we

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Speaker 1: may be headed in that direction. So we'll break all

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Speaker 1: of that down Hunter Biden. New details revealed about potential

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Speaker 1: criminal problems for him, that of course is being completely

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Speaker 1: ignored by most of the media. We will break all

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Speaker 1: of that down for you, and we can't resist but

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Speaker 1: to bring you the absolutely best slash worst takes of

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Speaker 1: the whole Will Smith situation. We've done a little round

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Speaker 1: up for everybody. There are some amazing, really world class

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Speaker 1: galaxy brain unfolding round Twitter you people wouldn't believe. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So we brought him all together for you to enjoy

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Speaker 1: this morning. Also, Kyle Kndick is going to be back

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Speaker 1: with us to preview the midterms, but we wanted to

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Speaker 1: start with Biden and his cleanup job. That's right, So

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Speaker 1: we brought you those three instances yesterday where the president's

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Speaker 1: comments had to be cleaned up. Number one, whenever he

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Speaker 1: told troops or intimated to them that they might be

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Speaker 1: heading towards Ukraine. Number two, obviously, whenever he declared regime

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Speaker 1: change or policy of regime change of the United States

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Speaker 1: for Vladimir Putin. And then a third instance where he

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Speaker 1: also had a gaff that had to be cleaned up

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Speaker 1: by the White House. Yet the President yesterday is defiant.

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Speaker 1: He says, I didn't make a single mistake. You people

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Speaker 1: are the one who are misinterpreting it. He's got a

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Speaker 1: little bit in common with Trump and that guard. Let's

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Speaker 1: take a lesson. Do you believe what you said that

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Speaker 1: Putin can't remain in power or do you now regret

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Speaker 1: saying that because your government has been trying to walk

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Speaker 1: that back. Did your words complicate matters? Well, you ask

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Speaker 1: three different questions. I'll answer them all. Number one, I'm

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Speaker 1: not walking anything back. The fact of the matter is

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Speaker 1: I was expressing the more outrage I felt towards the

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Speaker 1: way Putin is dealing in the actions of this man,

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Speaker 1: just brutality of half the children in Ukraine. I just

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Speaker 1: come from being with those families and so. But I

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Speaker 1: want to make it clear I wasn't then, nor am

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Speaker 1: I now articulating a policy change. I was expressing the

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Speaker 1: more outrage that I feel, and I make no apologies

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Speaker 1: for it my personal feelings. Second one, how does not

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Speaker 1: beg It means that I would hope you. I just

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Speaker 1: it was expressing my outrage. She shouldn't remain in power,

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Speaker 1: just like you know, people shouldn't continue to do bad things.

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Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean we have a fundamental policy to

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Speaker 1: do anything to take Putin down in any way? Are

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Speaker 1: you worried that other leaders in the world are going

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Speaker 1: to start to doubt that America is back if some

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Speaker 1: of these big things that you say on the world

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Speaker 1: stage keep getting walked back much Getty walked back. Made

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Speaker 1: it sound like, just in the last couple of days,

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Speaker 1: it sounded like you told US troops they were going

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Speaker 1: to Ukraine. It sounded like you said it was possible

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Speaker 1: the US would use a chemical weapon, and it sounded

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Speaker 1: like you were calling for regime change in Russia. And

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Speaker 1: we know, none of the three occurred, none of the three.

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Speaker 1: None of the three. So yeah, there you could see.

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Speaker 1: None of the three were a walk back. There was

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Speaker 1: no problem, even though his administration had to clean up

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Speaker 1: every single one with a clarifying statement after the fact. Crystal,

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Speaker 1: I think that mashup that we just had there is

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Speaker 1: extraordinary because it shows you that this man has no

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Speaker 1: contrition for what he said. That all so that the

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Speaker 1: White House staff are jumping the gun a little bit

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Speaker 1: whenever they try to put out these statements clarifying things

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Speaker 1: for him, and it creates a narrative he clearly doesn't like.

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Speaker 1: He's like, no, I didn't make a mistake. I didn't

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Speaker 1: misspeak whatsoever. I said exactly what I mean. And this

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Speaker 1: is part of the issue. During that conference, he said

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Speaker 1: I was not changing the policy of the United States.

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Speaker 1: What you say is the policy of the United States.

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Speaker 1: When you declare a regime change, that means that's the

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Speaker 1: policy of the United States government. We used to have

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Speaker 1: the same problem under Trump. His advisors would say, well,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the underlying policy, it's like no,

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Speaker 1: no, no no, that's not how it works. He's the democratically

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Speaker 1: elected one. Whenever he speaks, he is declaring something part

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Speaker 1: of why what he said yesterday was so catastrophic in

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Speaker 1: terms of its implications for the Russian government itself. But

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Speaker 1: it just shows you that this man I mean, is

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Speaker 1: completely He just has no apologies. He has no ability

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Speaker 1: for him to even clarify his words, even if you

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Speaker 1: can recognize the extraordinary danger that he's putting us in

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Speaker 1: by speaking off the cuff like this. Joe Biden has

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Speaker 1: always been completely undisciplined when it comes to his language

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Speaker 1: and his words. This is a surprise to absolutely no one.

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Speaker 1: And sometimes that treait is actually charming because sometimes it

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Speaker 1: makes him relatable, you know, I mean, it's part of, frankly,

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Speaker 1: what people liked about Trump too. Sometimes they liked that

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Speaker 1: he would say the thing that he's not really supposed

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Speaker 1: to say, and it's just like what happens to fumble

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Speaker 1: into his brain at that moment and then fall right

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Speaker 1: out of his mouth. It can be an appealing characteristic

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Speaker 1: when you are talking about a potential World War three

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Speaker 1: confrontation with a nuclear superpower, it is the most disastrous

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Speaker 1: character trait you could possibly have. And that's why we've

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Speaker 1: had over the past just very short period of time

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Speaker 1: he off the cuff calls Putin a war criminal. What

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Speaker 1: was that plan in advance or not, we don't know

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Speaker 1: after the fact. Then they come out with a sort

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Speaker 1: of like rollout of Okay, now the US government is

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Speaker 1: going to officially call Putin war criminal, which look he is.

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Speaker 1: But when you have the President of the United States

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Speaker 1: and the official policy of the US administration to label

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Speaker 1: him a war criminal, that makes it very difficult to

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Speaker 1: be a positive, constructive part of forging a piece. So

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Speaker 1: first you have that, you have him call him a butcher,

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Speaker 1: something else that Allies distanced themselves from and the White

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Speaker 1: House had to clean up. Then you have him seeming

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Speaker 1: to insinuate to our armed forces that they're going to

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Speaker 1: be actually going to Ukraine. Okay, disastrous for anyone to

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Speaker 1: get the idea that he's like letting slip there what's

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Speaker 1: actually going on. And then you of course have him

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Speaker 1: ad libbing this line from his speech that Putin cannot

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Speaker 1: remain in power, validating the worst fears of Putin, effectively

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Speaker 1: pushing him even further into a corner and making the

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Speaker 1: risk of escalation that much greater. And then and I

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Speaker 1: didn't catch this till after the fact, after this presser yesterday,

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Speaker 1: when he was responding to a question about what he

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Speaker 1: said to the eighty second Airborne and seeming to imply

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Speaker 1: that they were going to be actually going to Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: he made another mess for himself. He denied that that

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Speaker 1: was what was going on, that they were actually going

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Speaker 1: to Ukraine, adding, we're talking about helping train the Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: troops that are in Poland. Got it, well, that hasn't

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Speaker 1: been acknowledged and that represents if true, and by the way,

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Speaker 1: he reiterated it when pressed, he said, I was referring

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Speaker 1: to being with and talking with the Ukrainian troops that

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Speaker 1: are in Poland. We have not acknowledged that our troops

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Speaker 1: are training Ukrainian troops in Poland. And if that is

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Speaker 1: in fact true, number one, that is classified and number two,

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Speaker 1: that is a significant escalation that again nobody has been

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Speaker 1: made aware of. So even in his cleanup, he's making

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Speaker 1: another catastrophic mess for him. And I would love to

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Speaker 1: know the answer of whether or not that is actually

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Speaker 1: happening right now. That's a great question as well. I

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Speaker 1: have no doubt that it is happening, but as you said,

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Speaker 1: you know, these things are easier or classified, or they

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Speaker 1: should be briefed to Congress, and we should all maybe

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Speaker 1: have a little bit of a say or understanding about

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Speaker 1: what's happening. And this just comes within the general context

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Speaker 1: of all of the arms that are flowing into Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: the very lack of current oversight, and the lack of

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Speaker 1: inquiry currently by the press. This is really what astounds

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Speaker 1: me about Biden, which is that any rational person, anyone,

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Speaker 1: could look at what he said and say, this is

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Speaker 1: a real problem. I mean, some people are trying to

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Speaker 1: excuse it away. We covered all the bloodthirsty neocons and

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Speaker 1: media yesterday saying oh, actually, regime change is good. I mean,

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Speaker 1: outside of these psychopaths, most people could say this, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think Putin should go. I absolutely think that. Do

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Speaker 1: I think that we should bring force to bear in

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Speaker 1: order to accomplish that goal? No, I don't think that.

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Speaker 1: This was exactly the same position that was the elites

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Speaker 1: used in order to gaslight us into war in Iraq.

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Speaker 1: They made it a referendum on Saddam Hussein, not on

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Speaker 1: Saddam Hussein, and then removal of Saddam Hussein and all

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Speaker 1: of the fortieth order consequences that could come with that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at the dissolution of Russian regimes in

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Speaker 1: the past doesn't always go so well for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world, and I think that that is exactly

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Speaker 1: why what he said is so consequential. Even on CNN,

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Speaker 1: I saw an analyst yesterday named Kim Dozier, national security reporter.

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Speaker 1: She's like, look, this is the greatest gift to Kremlin

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Speaker 1: propaganda that could have ever happened. Everyone can understand that

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Speaker 1: in terms of what the Russian people are hearing domestically

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Speaker 1: being hammered home, that his sanctions are going to come.

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Speaker 1: No matter what. They want to overthrow our government, they

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Speaker 1: want to return to the chaos of the nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 1: They refused in order to back down, and thus the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian peacekeeping operation or whatever they call it, is what

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Speaker 1: is needed at this time. Again and again we see

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Speaker 1: this from Biden. He validates the concerns, but worse, on

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Speaker 1: a strategic perspective, he's all over the map. He's like, no,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to send any troops, but we are

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Speaker 1: sending these advisors. Also the policies regime change, except it's

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Speaker 1: not regime change, as expecting my moral outrage. And also

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Speaker 1: the troops are going over there, but they're not going

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Speaker 1: over there. What the hell is happening. Uncertainty in these

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Speaker 1: environments is exactly what causes miscalculation and escalation, lack of

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Speaker 1: ability to understand what your opponent is thinking. In the Kremlin,

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Speaker 1: they have already the lens of the most maximalist interpretation

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Speaker 1: of what the Biden administration is saying, which could lead

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Speaker 1: them to take the most maximized action, which could then

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Speaker 1: cause a miscalculation on our part. And next thing you know,

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Speaker 1: we're in a minor nuclear exchange, and there's nothing minor

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Speaker 1: about what that looks like in this day and age. Well,

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Speaker 1: and it's not just that this is like verbal diarrhea.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that he is probably revealing here the

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Speaker 1: truth thinking inside the administration worse, which is even worse.

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Speaker 1: This isn't just he slipped up and said the wrong thing. No,

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Speaker 1: it's a gaff in the true sense, in that he

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Speaker 1: revealed the discussions that are actually going on behind the

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Speaker 1: scenes that we had gotten little glimpses of before. I

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Speaker 1: keep mentioning, but it's really important that Nile Ferguson piece

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Speaker 1: where he reports that privately a senior administration official was

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Speaker 1: saying the only endgame here is Putin out of power.

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Speaker 1: At Michael O'Hanlon, who's a senior fellow the Brookings Institution,

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Speaker 1: he said of Biden's comment, what it tells me and

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Speaker 1: worries me, is that the top team is not thinking

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Speaker 1: about plausible war termination. Now I'm not talking about, you know,

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Speaker 1: the type of hot war we had in Iraq where

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Speaker 1: we brought in the tanks and we you know, using

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Speaker 1: military force to pose Saddam Hussein. But if they are

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Speaker 1: deluding themselves into thinking that their actions are going to

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Speaker 1: in the near term push Putin out of power and

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Speaker 1: that is the only endgame that they are ultimately pushing for,

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Speaker 1: well that means that they aren't going to be a

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Speaker 1: constructive part of trying to create an off ramp, trying

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Speaker 1: to create the conditions for peace, pushing for negotiations which

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Speaker 1: are going to be difficult and painful on both sides.

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Speaker 1: What Biden seems to be indicating here is that they

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Speaker 1: are thinking instead that the pressure they're bringing to bear,

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Speaker 1: the extreme pressure through indiscriminate sanctions and through bolstering the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian military and by making a Russia a global pariah,

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Speaker 1: that that is actually going to have the end effect

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Speaker 1: of pushing Putin out of power. The reality is their

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Speaker 1: comments here and their actions thus far are likely only

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Speaker 1: strengthening Putin's hand domestically, providing him with propaganda wins, as

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Speaker 1: you said, validating the narrative that he has been selling

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Speaker 1: to his people that the West is owned to get Russia.

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Speaker 1: They want to destroy Russia, they hate Russia, and we

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Speaker 1: are simply providing fuel for that fire. So it's not

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Speaker 1: just that this is a verbal screw up, it's that

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Speaker 1: the direction and the thinking of the administration that it

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Speaker 1: reveals is a catastrophic direction. Yeah, but not everybody in

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Speaker 1: the press corps was willing to acknowledge it that way.

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Speaker 1: Just look at the way this PBS reporter talks to Biden,

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Speaker 1: and you can't even make it up. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 1: You have more foreign policy experience than any president who's

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Speaker 1: ever held this office. Whether those are your personal feelings

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Speaker 1: or your feelings as president, you understand why people would

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Speaker 1: believe you as someone commanding one of the largest nuclear

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Speaker 1: arsenals in the world, saying someone cannot remain in power

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Speaker 1: statement of US policy. And also, are you concerned about

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Speaker 1: propaganda use of those remarks by the Russians. No and no,

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Speaker 1: tell me what you have so much experience. You are

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Speaker 1: the leader of this country. This it's ridiculous. Nobody believes

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Speaker 1: we're gonna take down I was going I was talking

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Speaker 1: about taking down Putin. Nobody would believe that. Number one.

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Speaker 1: Number two, What have I been talking about all since

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Speaker 1: this all began. The only war that's worse and one intended,

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Speaker 1: is one that's unintended. The last thing I want to

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Speaker 1: do is engage in a land war or a nuclear

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Speaker 1: war with Russia. That's not part of it. So even

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Speaker 1: after buttering him up, you have so much more money,

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Speaker 1: you did not have. The does not have the most

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Speaker 1: foreign policy experience of any president. John Quincy Adams would

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Speaker 1: like a word whenever it comes to that at George H. W.

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Speaker 1: Bush and many of these others for that god in

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Speaker 1: foreign policy. Not necessarily. I'm just listening off people who

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Speaker 1: have much more foreign policy experience than he did before

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Speaker 1: he took the office. And yet this is the issue,

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Speaker 1: which is that even within that he is such a

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Speaker 1: crotchety old guy that he had not retreat. Nobody believes.

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Speaker 1: Actually a lot of people believe it. And you should

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Speaker 1: know that if you actually did have you know, proper

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Speaker 1: foreign policy experience. But this ornery nature of Biden, this

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Speaker 1: is not an old man thing. This is intrinsic to

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Speaker 1: his character, has been for the last fifty years. When

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Speaker 1: he believes he's right, he refuses to back down. We

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Speaker 1: saw this during the campaign, we see it here now.

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Speaker 1: And look, this is in a very unfortunate part of

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Speaker 1: his character that makes him the leader of the democratic,

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Speaker 1: free world. A real issue for all of us because

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Speaker 1: of the global security concerns he's igniting, and he refuses

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Speaker 1: to even acknowledge a single part of that. It's making

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Speaker 1: us all less safe. Our friend David Rothcobb, who was

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Speaker 1: yes yesterday, as you know, being one of the most

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Speaker 1: aggressive sort of people out there, mainstream foreign policy types,

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Speaker 1: who is running cover for Biden on these comments, who's

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Speaker 1: very upset about the number of questions that were about,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether regime change was the policy of the

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Speaker 1: United States, because I think seven out of nine of

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Speaker 1: the questions had to do with this. Yes, I would

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Speaker 1: say this is one instance where yeah, the media fixates

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Speaker 1: on it as like, oh, it's a gaff and it's

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Speaker 1: a mistake. One instance where that lines up with what

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Speaker 1: is actually the central, most critical issue of the day,

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Speaker 1: which is what is the administration actually thinking now. Of course,

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Speaker 1: they never really press the case. I think the only

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Speaker 1: question we've really seen that pushes okay, what are you

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Speaker 1: doing to create a piece? Came from Ryan Grimm one instance.

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Speaker 1: They never really pressed the case of like, how are

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Speaker 1: you creating an off ramp? How are you making it

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Speaker 1: so that negotiations will come to a peaceful resolution. But

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Speaker 1: in this one case, their instinct for like gotcha questions

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Speaker 1: actually lands on what is the most central and critical

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Speaker 1: issue of the day. And it's not that he misspoke,

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Speaker 1: it's the fear that this reveals what is really going

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Speaker 1: on inside high levels of the administration. Yeah, unfortunately that

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Speaker 1: may be the case. Let's move on to the piece

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Speaker 1: this is okay. Yeah, so there's negotiations going on today

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Speaker 1: in Turkey. These are the first negotiations between Ukrainians and

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Speaker 1: Russians in about two weeks. And you know, we've gotten

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Speaker 1: we've sort of been to this movie before where you

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Speaker 1: get some potential indications that maybe there's some movement and

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Speaker 1: maybe there's some openness and maybe they're coming to some

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Speaker 1: sort of an accord. Some sort of a deal. So

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Speaker 1: we're going to give you the latest signs of that,

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Speaker 1: with a lot of caveats that you know, the Russians

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Speaker 1: may not be operating in good faith here. The Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: very much feel like they are winning this war, so

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Speaker 1: unlikely to want to give up much in terms of

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Speaker 1: concessions on their side. But let's put this first piece

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Speaker 1: up on the screen. This is from Financial Times Moscow.

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Speaker 1: You are a chief, Maxidan, He says, new details on

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Speaker 1: ukraine ceasefire talks with Russia. Ukraine has to give up

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Speaker 1: on NATO, but will be free to join the EU.

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Speaker 1: That's new. Russia is no longer demanding de nazification whatever

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Speaker 1: that meant. Demilitarization and Russian language are not part of

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Speaker 1: the possible deal either. So reading into the article that

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Speaker 1: is linked to here, they say, as part of the

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Speaker 1: agreement under consideration, Ukraine would refrain from developing nuclear weapons

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Speaker 1: or hosting foreign military bases in addition to abandoning its

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Speaker 1: pursuit of NATO membership. In exchange, Ukraine would get what

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Speaker 1: one of the negotiators called wording close to NATO's Article five,

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Speaker 1: whereby the alliance's members must come to each other's aid

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Speaker 1: if one is attacked for security guarantees from countries including Russia,

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Speaker 1: the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland,

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Speaker 1: Israel and Turkey. However, the draft Communicat under consideration leaves

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Speaker 1: the biggest sticking point, Ukraine's attempts to reclaim territory seized

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Speaker 1: by Russia since twenty fourteen, to be settled in a

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Speaker 1: tentative future discussion by Putin and Zelenski. So there's a

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Speaker 1: couple things to note there. Number one, you know, you

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Speaker 1: should always question whether Russia is really engaging in good faith,

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Speaker 1: if they're just trying to provide sort of propaganda cover

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Speaker 1: that oh, of course we want peace, when really they're

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Speaker 1: continuing there the war, their military operations. So that always

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Speaker 1: hangs over all of this. But the other important piece

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Speaker 1: there is that even though you see some potential outlines

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Speaker 1: on some difficult pieces NATO membership, security guarantees, foreign military bases,

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Speaker 1: those sorts of things, the biggest questions of all, right, well,

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Speaker 1: what happens to those separatist territories and what happens in

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Speaker 1: Crimea that they're not even really talking about. Yeah, we're

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Speaker 1: not talking about that. So that's not necessarily a good

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Speaker 1: or bad thing, but it also could follow on in

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Speaker 1: the follow talks. Now, let's put this next one up there,

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Speaker 1: because this is also important. While the Biden administration continues

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Speaker 1: to basically push regime change, at least in rhetoric against Russia,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is President Zelenski, while yes constantly asking for more planes,

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Speaker 1: is sounding a different note. In his interview with Russian journalists,

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Speaker 1: I talked a bit about this yesterday, but he said, quote,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as

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Speaker 1: part of the piece deal with Russia. Such a pact

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Speaker 1: would have been guaranteed by third parties and put to

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Speaker 1: a referendum, So that is per what Zelensky said. Now,

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Speaker 1: what's even more important about that is that they would

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Speaker 1: codify it in their constitution, have it guaranteed by a

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Speaker 1: third party. Further discussion here. Crystal actually indicates that the

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Speaker 1: Russians we were talking about earlier might be okay with

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Speaker 1: you EU membership, but it's NATO specifically that needs to

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Speaker 1: be ruled out entirely. So there's a lot of room

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Speaker 1: for discussion here. Once again, in terms of the deployment

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Speaker 1: of defensive slash offensive weapons. What they're really guaranteeing here

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Speaker 1: is that no Western military deployment to Ukraine. That appears

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Speaker 1: to be the total red line in terms of what

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Speaker 1: the Russians can at least demand from a realistic point

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Speaker 1: of view, given their lack of current military success on

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Speaker 1: the ground and the kind of the reversion to a

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Speaker 1: stalemate that we see currently. All of this has setting

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Speaker 1: the ground for two outcomes. Number One, we could see

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Speaker 1: a spdpiece, that would be a great thing. We have

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Speaker 1: thousands of civilians who are dead, millions of people who

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Speaker 1: have fled the country, A large part of it is decimated.

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Speaker 1: The Russians have egg on their face, you know, even

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Speaker 1: though they still have superior military capable and they could

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Speaker 1: throw in the talent and say, okay, we're good, you know,

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Speaker 1: given what happens to our face saving here exactly right.

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Speaker 1: Take the face Saving Ukraine guarantees all of that within

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Speaker 1: three months. None of us have to talk about it

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Speaker 1: or think about it anymore. However, the other thing is

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Speaker 1: that this peace talk could break down and then we

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Speaker 1: see very unfortunate consequence of a humanitarian disaster, hundreds of

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Speaker 1: thousands of civilians who are dead and really, you know,

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Speaker 1: even more of a gambling for resurrection that you've talked about,

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Speaker 1: and the further stalemate into those things. We should all

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Speaker 1: pray and hope for the former. That doesn't mean, though,

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Speaker 1: that it's likely there are still demands that the Russians

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Speaker 1: would have to give up in order to see a

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Speaker 1: real negotiation on the part of President Zelensky, namely the

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Speaker 1: fact that a he can't guarantee demilitarization because you know,

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Speaker 1: he just got has his country invaded, and he has

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Speaker 1: to guarantee his own sovereignty, his ability for his regime

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Speaker 1: in order to stay in power. There's no way that

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Speaker 1: he's going to willingly give that up. So can the

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Speaker 1: Russians really accept that type of outcome? I just don't know.

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Speaker 1: They asked that question. There was another interesting part that

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Speaker 1: Zelenski said, and this was in his speech that he

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Speaker 1: gave on Sunday. So with regards to the neutrality, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is similar to language that he's used before, but

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Speaker 1: he says security guarantees and neutrality non nuclear status of

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Speaker 1: our state. We are ready to go for it. This

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Speaker 1: is the most important point. But he also and this

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Speaker 1: is a quote from the piece he ruled out trying

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Speaker 1: to recapture all Russian held territory by force, saying it

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Speaker 1: would lead to a third World War, and said he

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Speaker 1: wanted to reach a compromise over the eastern dun Bus

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Speaker 1: region held by Russian back forces since twenty fourteen. So

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Speaker 1: perhaps in that language you could see this sort of challenging, tricky,

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Speaker 1: narrow diplomatic path where Ukraine does not recognize those parts

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Speaker 1: of the country as under Russian control, nor do they

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Speaker 1: use their military to try to regain control. So you

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Speaker 1: have this sort of like tenuous balancing act that we've

431
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: certainly seen, you know in other parts of the world,

432
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: where you know you have an official recognition by one side,

433
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 1: you don't on the other side. You sort of maintain

434
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: a status quo that at least gets us out of

435
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 1: the conflict. I don't know if that could be the

436
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 1: direction that they go. And one other thing that just

437
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: came out this morning, this is also from mass of

438
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: Financial Times, Russia's deputy defense minister is saying Moscow has

439
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: decided to quote fundamentally cut back military activity in the

440
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: direction of Kiev and chernigive. I don't know how to

441
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: say that in order to quote increase mutual trust for

442
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 1: future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine. Again,

443
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: you can't take them at face value, but this is

444
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: what they're projecting. This is what they're saying. They're clearly

445
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: trying to signal a seriousness in their approach to these

446
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 1: latest negotiations, which again they haven't the two sides haven't

447
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 1: met in two weeks, so it is significant that they

448
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 1: are meeting once again. But they're also i think trying

449
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: to cover for the fact that they're suffering some military losses,

450
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: especially around Kiev. So this is a way to say

451
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: we're not defeated, we're holding back because we really are

452
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: serious about peace. That's my immediate reaction is that's a

453
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 1: hell of a way to spin the fact that you've

454
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: had a military set back, to put it nicely, in

455
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: terms of your ability to try and seize the city.

456
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: I had seen that Russia did take control of the

457
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: city of Mariopol, at least according to the people who

458
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 1: are on the ground, after a pretty brutal military campaign there.

459
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: So look, hopefully this is the way that things are

460
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 1: moving in this direction. They have egg on their face,

461
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: they can accept it, they can pull back, and they

462
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: can have a hope for a return to the Community

463
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: of Nations, although that is pretty unlikely at this point,

464
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 1: and yet there still might go for it in terms

465
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: of trying to at least have some sort of acceptance

466
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: and reintegration into the global economy. All of that put

467
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: together in that key of announcement, I would say is

468
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 1: pretty good. That being said, Look, we have seen fake

469
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,479
Speaker 1: outs before many times in the history of military conflict,

470
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 1: Promises of ceasefires which are actually the harbingers of offensives

471
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: of you know, trying to get the millet the offensives

472
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,679
Speaker 1: of the defensive side to back down a little bit

473
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: and then use that as a pretext in order to

474
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: start even more conflict. So we'll believe it whenever it's

475
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 1: signed on the dotted line, and even then, you know,

476
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: we won't. We'll distrust, but will verify. So yeah, that

477
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: is it's still a long long way to go rhetorically

478
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: that it is not a bad thing to see from

479
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: our perspective. There was one other piece of tantalizing news

480
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: that we wanted to talk about, Yes, being going deep

481
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: on this. Yeah, well I don't know how deep I went,

482
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,479
Speaker 1: but I so I'm skeptical of these reports that came

483
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: out from the Wall Street Journal, and we can go

484
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up on the screen that Roman Abramovich,

485
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 1: who is a close putent ally and has been involved

486
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: in the peace negotiations and three Ukrainian peace negotiators purportedly

487
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: suffered from a suspected poisoning. This was based on an

488
00:25:55,880 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: investigation from an investigator with the belling Cat open source collective,

489
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 1: which receives funding from the US government. And you know,

490
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: sometimes they're correct and sometimes they're not. And it's been

491
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: the question has been raised whether they, you know, have

492
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: oftentimes a political agenda in terms of the information that

493
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: they are putting out. But even by their own admission,

494
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 1: they were unable to obtain a quote, timely sample from

495
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: this group. It couldn't be arranged in Leviv because they

496
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: were in a hurry to travel on to Istanbul. The

497
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: symptoms of this alleged poisoning included like their they said

498
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 1: their skin was peeling and they had issues with their eyesight.

499
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 1: So strange symptoms. And you certainly don't put it past

500
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: you know, hardliners in Moscow known to poison people before.

501
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: So I'm not putting it off the table. I'm just

502
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: saying that this should be treated with a dose of

503
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: skepticism because of where the report comes from, and also

504
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: because they were unable to specifically obtain a sample that

505
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 1: would prove that this was in fact poisoning. And by

506
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: the way, even the New York Times, in their report

507
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 1: about it, were kind of skeptical that this was really

508
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: what was going on, and they quoted someone who said

509
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 1: that the symptoms could be consistent with something much more mundane,

510
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: like food poisoning. They all lea serve the same thing

511
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: at the peace negotiation, they end up with food poisoning.

512
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: I'll say it'd be weird for food poisoning because you

513
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: have weird problems with your vision. But anyway, I just

514
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: wanted to cover it to say I'm a little skeptical

515
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: of these reports, so take this one with a grain AsSalt.

516
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: I'll believe it when I see it. Wouldn't put it

517
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 1: past them, though, certain, Yeah, sure, of course, yeah, all right.

518
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 1: The other big news from yesterday is President Biden unveiled

519
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: his budget big picture. This is a very different budget

520
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: than the sort of presentation of what this administration would be.

521
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 1: When they were hanging the FDR portraits in the office

522
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: and they had big plans for how they were really

523
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: going to deal with inequality, deal with climate change, transform

524
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: sort of the landscape of what life is like for workers.

525
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 1: This budget seems to be very much response to Republican

526
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: attacks on Biden and the Democrats, And I will just say, listen, guys,

527
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: they're going to say the same things about you no

528
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: matter what. So it'd be much better for you to

529
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 1: have an affirmative governing vision that you care about and

530
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: actually get behind and push for. But let's get into

531
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: some of the details here, because there are a couple

532
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: of things that are good. First of all, he's pushing

533
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,239
Speaker 1: for a billionaire tax, something that you know, we can

534
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: get into the details of it and the mechanics of it.

535
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 1: But certainly, lord knows, those at the very top end

536
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: are paying very little in taxes. It is wildly unjust,

537
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 1: is contributing to massive fundamental imbalances within our economy, and

538
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: so taxing the richest among us more should be an

539
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: end in and of itself. But as I was just saying,

540
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: rather than affirmatively making the case for taxing the rich more,

541
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: he's fitting it into this. Oh, now we're serious about

542
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: deficit reduction. Narrative, basically adopting the Republican talking points. So

543
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: let's take a listen to some of the that, and

544
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: then I'll talk on the other side about the dangers

545
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: of that. Compared to twenty twenty, we're reducing the size

546
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: of the deficit relative of our economy by almost two thirds,

547
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: reduced inflationary pressures, and making real headway cleaning up the

548
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: fiscal mess I inherited after my president's, my predecessor's fiscal mismanagement.

549
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: We were reducing the Trump deficits and returning our fiscal

550
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: house to order. Right now, billionaires pay an average rate

551
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: of eight percent on their total income. Eight percent. That's

552
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: the average they pay. Now. I'm a capitalist, but just

553
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: if you can make a billion bucks, great, just pay

554
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: your fair share, pay a little bit. A firefighter and

555
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: a teacher pay more than double double the tax rate

556
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: that a billionaire pays. That's not right, that's not fair.

557
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: And my budget contains a billionaire minimum tax because of that.

558
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: I hate that whisper thing. It's so irritating to me.

559
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,479
Speaker 1: I don't like it anyway. On the substance, First of all,

560
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: let me say listen, guys, we've been to this movie before,

561
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: when you talk about deficit reduction, it does not end

562
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: up with you raising taxes on billionaires. It ends up

563
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 1: with you following the Rick Scott plan of raising taxes

564
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: on the working poor and cutting the social safety net.

565
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: That's where this deficit talk ultimately ends up in terms

566
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: of the details on the billionaire tax, something that is

567
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: very popular with the American public and yes does have

568
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: the impact of, you know, cutting the deficit, but more

569
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: importantly to be helps to correct what is a fundamental

570
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: inbalance in our economy. Let's go ahead and put the

571
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,479
Speaker 1: CNBC tear sheet up on the screen. He's proposing a

572
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: new twenty percent minimum bill billionaire tax. It's called the

573
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: billionaire Minimum Income Tax. Would assess twenty percent minimum tax

574
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: rate on all US households worth more than one hundred

575
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: million dollars. Over half of the revenue would come from

576
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: those worth more than one billion dollars. Jeff Stein ran

577
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: some of the numbers about how this would change the

578
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: game in terms of some of our most famous billionaires.

579
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 1: Elon Musk would pay an additional fifty billion. Amazon founder

580
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos would pay an additional thirty five billion. Actually,

581
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: those numbers come from Gabriel Zuckman, who's a well known

582
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: economist at the University of California, Berkeley, does a lot

583
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: of work with Thomas Pahetti on inequality. So effectively, what

584
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: they're trying to do here is make it so that

585
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: billionaires can't play all the games with their wealth that

586
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: they normally do. Typical billionaire isn't getting a lot of

587
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: money from wage income. They have assets, and they're able

588
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: to borrow against their holdings in order to fund their

589
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: living expenses. That means they can go their entire life

590
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: without paying taxes on the true you know, their true

591
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: net wealth because they never, according to the tax code,

592
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: realize those gains. Then there's a provision in the tax

593
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: code that lets them pass all of that forward to

594
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: whoever you know, their kids or whoever, and there's a

595
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: what's called a step up basis, and then the kids

596
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: don't pay taxes on it either. So this massive amount

597
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: of wealth goes completely untaxed. I mean, it never is

598
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 1: ultimately taxed. And so this is an attempt to try

599
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: to really recognize the sources of wealth of billionaires and

600
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 1: make the code a little bit more fair. Yeah, I'll

601
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 1: say two things on this. First of all the budget

602
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: is fake. It doesn't matter. We have the president's budget

603
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: has not mattered for many years. How it works is basically,

604
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: during the Obama administration, during sequestration, the president would send

605
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: us budget. It used to be that there would be

606
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: a debate and it would pass within some form. If

607
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: the opposite party they basically said no, we're going to

608
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: continue funding the government through continuing resolution. So what the

609
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:40,719
Speaker 1: Congress decides is what actually matters. This is purely a

610
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: messaging tool. I will say this though, I think that

611
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: taxing unrealized gains is incredibly stupid, and the reason why

612
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: is because it doesn't actually correct the problem. The problem,

613
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: as you said, is that people are taking massive amounts

614
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: of loans musk Bezos, etc. Based upon the actual unrealized asset.

615
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 1: So you should tax the law that's what the actual

616
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: cash income is. Same, we should fix the step up

617
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: basis because again that is the point where the wealth

618
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: is then transferred over to the actual heirs who are

619
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: again using the loopholes within the financial system to borrow

620
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: against these assets. Same thing whenever it comes to very

621
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 1: high end real estate. So this would be a way

622
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: in order to correct this imbalance while also addressing the

623
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: problem and fix the incentive, because the current incentive it

624
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: should not be a disincentivized to hold equity in a company,

625
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: especially if you're going to start a company and it

626
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: does one hundred x to a billion. The issue is

627
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: that you should not be incentive to never realize that

628
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: gain and thus never have a taxable event. So the

629
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 1: taxable event can say, hey, you can hold all the

630
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: stock that you want, but you can either sell some

631
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: to live or you can have a tax on the loan.

632
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: That's up to you. And this is the issue that

633
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: I see with all This is the same thing in

634
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 1: the equity markets too, And actually a way that you

635
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: can get around some of the possible unconstitutionality of a

636
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: wealth tax is that people buy all this art and

637
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 1: then they take loans based upon the people buy all

638
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: this stuff and then they take loans, and the rich

639
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: people always like, well, how are we going to tax it?

640
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 1: It's not possible. We don't have to tax it. That's fine.

641
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: The way that we do it is if you're going

642
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: to float your lifestyle based upon this piece of art

643
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: sitting in a Swiss freeport, Okay, we're going to have

644
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 1: to have a little bit of a discussion here, it's

645
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: just an unsophisticated Well, well, here's what I would say.

646
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: I don't feel that we're in a position to be

647
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 1: too picky about how any of how we ultimately tax

648
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: billionaire wealth because the reality is, as you said, is

649
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 1: this going to actually happen? Well, probably is not going

650
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 1: to happen. So if we were actually at the point

651
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: where I thought this was going to be reality, I

652
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 1: would be more interested in engaging in the specifics. I

653
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: think you make a great point about how it might

654
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: be a more elegant solution. We also know what happened

655
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 1: when Biden was proposing getting rid of the step up basis.

656
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: People like Claire McCalla. What's that lady's name, heid Heidi

657
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 1: hi Camp. She's the one, remember making up these completely

658
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: disingenuous arguments for all this is going to hurt like

659
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: family farmers. It was like a she invented the scenario

660
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 1: of a truck driver who inherits a log cabin. That's

661
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: millions of dollars. I mean, it's just like the links

662
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: that they will go to to keep the step up

663
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: basis from being changed are completely insane, and so that

664
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: got dropped from build back batter pretty quickly because of

665
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: entrenched moneyed well funded interests, both on the Democratic and

666
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,479
Speaker 1: the Republican side, making sure that it would never ever

667
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: come to pass. So in the spirit of thinking of

668
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: this as like a messaging tool, which I think probably

669
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 1: is the best way to think about it, I believe

670
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: that they are probably thinking more in terms of this

671
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 1: is the easiest approach to sell to the country, because

672
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: when you start talking about step up basis, I mean

673
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 1: we've explained it here a number of times. This this

674
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 1: strategy of by borrowde and how you can pass your

675
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: assets forward, and then they're never right. But it's complicated,

676
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 1: and it leaves the door open for people like Heidi

677
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 1: Haan Camp to muddy the waters and make it impossible.

678
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 1: Whereas saying, listen, billionaires are going to pay twenty percent

679
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: minimum tax, that's what's going to happen. I think it

680
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: is probably just on the messaging front, probably more effective. Yeah,

681
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: it's definitely. I mean, look, maybe at this point. The

682
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 1: other problem with Biden is literally so unpopular that everything

683
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 1: the guy touches completely dies well and they don't see

684
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 1: they changed messages every week. I mean literally, like think

685
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 1: about all of the messaging iterations that we've gone through

686
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: on inflation. You know, there was like first they didn't

687
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: say anything about it. It It was just like it's transitory,

688
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 1: it's not a problem, let's not talk about it the

689
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: other things. Then it was like the infrastructure deal is

690
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: gonna fix inflation, which was always a little bit silly,

691
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 1: although I mean if you had a real massive investment

692
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 1: in infrastructure and dealing with supply chain issues, that would

693
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: be a real answer. Then there was a tiny flirtation

694
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 1: with talking about monopolies and antitrust and corporate greed. Then

695
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: they got uncomfortable with that, and now they're just like,

696
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 1: it's put yeah, So when you can't hold a single Meanwhile,

697
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 1: the whole time, the Republicans are saying, it's Biden's fault,

698
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: it's Biden's fault, it's Biden's fault. So which message do

699
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: you think ultimately is going to carry the day when

700
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 1: you all are working shopping them and have a different

701
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: one every single week. So that's the other problem here.

702
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: This was the problem with Build back Better is you

703
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 1: have this whole suite of policy ideas, many of which

704
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 1: were really good, many of which were really popular, but

705
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 1: you're not selling and leaning into any particular vision or

706
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: desired policy outcome. So this week they want to focus

707
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: on the billionaire tax against something that would be wonderful

708
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: in which I support, and I don't know why you

709
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: have to cloak it in this deficit reduction nonsense. But whatever.

710
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 1: But next week, who knows, Next week they might be

711
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: back to talking about climate change. They may just be

712
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: not talking about domestic policy at all, which is something

713
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: we've also seen from this administration time and again. That's right.

714
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: The other part of this budget, now, this part is

715
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 1: not the wishless. This is the part that will actually happen.

716
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 1: Is Biden is calling for a massive increase in defense spending.

717
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson security also means national and international security.

718
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 1: This budget provides the resources we need to keep American safe,

719
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: ensuring that our military remains the best prepared, best trained,

720
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: best equipped military in the world. This budget also provides

721
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 1: additional funding to force over respond to Putent aggression against

722
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: Ukraine and it's economic, humanitarian, and security consequences. The world

723
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: has changed. In addition to dealing with terrorist organizations for

724
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: the second court of the twenty first century, once again

725
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 1: facing increased competition from other nation States, China, and Russia

726
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: which are going to require investments to make things like

727
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:49,280
Speaker 1: space and cyber and other advanced capabilities, includement including hypersonics,

728
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 1: and this will be among the largest investments in our

729
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: national security and history. Some people don't like the increase,

730
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 1: but we're in a different world today. Well, I'm sure

731
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: all of that contractors music to their ears. That's right,

732
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 1: and this is the piece that will actually happen. That

733
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: increase will one hundred percent go through. In fact, the

734
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:12,280
Speaker 1: Republican's only complaint is that the increase is not large enough,

735
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 1: because that's the direction that that's the angle they're always

736
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: coming from. And you know, I'm sure the defense contractor stocks,

737
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're doing quite well. I'm sure all the

738
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: members of Congress, Congress from Rocana and others who are

739
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: significantly invested in these stocks, I'm sure they're quite pleased

740
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: with these announcements because it fattens their bottom line. And ultimately, Sager,

741
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: you have to love the logic of this because it

742
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 1: literally doesn't matter what's going on in our geopolitics or

743
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 1: with regards to our foreign affairs decision, every single situation

744
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: justifies a defense spending increase. So if we're like if

745
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 1: wars you know, possible threatened on the horizon, that just

746
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: justifies an increase. You know, we just got out of

747
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: Afghanistan somehow, that justifies an increase. When we're actually inside

748
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: a war, of course, that justifies an increase. So it

749
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 1: literally doesn't matter what hap deppens. They always find a

750
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: reason why we should have significantly more military spending and

751
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 1: you know, never do anything that really helps the working class. Yeah,

752
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: and more money doesn't actually solve the problem. This isn't

753
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 1: you know the thing that I talk about with a

754
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: lot of people who are even in the defense industry

755
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: and who want to disrupt it. A guy Christian Brose,

756
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 1: who I recently spoke to this what we talked about

757
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: was that more money you can't buy your way out

758
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 1: of the issue. If your fundamental problem is that there's

759
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: a mismatch. Ipersonics is a good example, then not that

760
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: expensive in order to create. It's that we had a

761
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: pairroblem in terms of what we were creating and the

762
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 1: defense production pipeline, and certain congressmen weren't involved in the decision,

763
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 1: and thus it leads to an imbalanced I mean same

764
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 1: during the Iraq war, the actual stuff that would save

765
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 1: our troops from IEDs was not being prioritized, while fifth

766
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: generation fighters, you know, which were the dream of some

767
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 1: Air Force general, were being prioritized. So, you know, the

768
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 1: money wasn't the issue. We were spending hundreds of billions

769
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: of dollars. It's what we were spending the money on

770
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: which was the issue. You could take the whole current budget,

771
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: completely take it and re target it towards where our

772
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 1: actual military defense capabilities are not meeting what we actually

773
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 1: might have to face in a current war, and you

774
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 1: could completely solve the issue. The problem is that would

775
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 1: then disrupt all of these lucrative pre existing contracts and

776
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 1: doctrines which are inside of the military, and there's all

777
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 1: these wars that happen within the services around this stuff,

778
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 1: which leads to all of this chicanery about why we

779
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,720
Speaker 1: need you know, X amount of tanks an x amount

780
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,280
Speaker 1: of this, even though you know, sure we need tanks,

781
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: but like, are really going to a tank war like

782
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: anytime soon? I don't think so. In terms of development too.

783
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 1: On the F thirty five, that's the F thirty five

784
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: became a complete boondoggle. I've spoken previously about how the

785
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: Navy pushed this thing called like the I think it's

786
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: called the Zumwalt class of these ships and the guns

787
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 1: cost a million dollars around to fire. That's crazy. I mean,

788
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: that's not useful because everything was built, you know, in

789
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: the wrong way and because of a problem with production.

790
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: But that just shows you how we're all getting builked.

791
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 1: I could guarantee you this, we could build a gun

792
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: that costs less than a million million dollars. Okay, all round,

793
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 1: We can do it around. Can you imagine that? Well?

794
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: And also this is very myopic view of what security

795
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:20,840
Speaker 1: ultimately entailed, because part of security is also being strong

796
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: at home, not just having all the fanciest weapons that

797
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: the defense industrial complex can ultimately spin out. So you know,

798
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: there's a very very limited view of what being strong

799
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,240
Speaker 1: and what making sure that the people are protected ultimately means,

800
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: and very little investment in actually making a strong making

801
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 1: a self sufficient here at home, let's say, by not

802
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: outsourcing our jobs in our industrial capacity is one particular example.

803
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: So there was one person who did not like this direction,

804
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: and he happens to be chair of the Senate Budget Committee.

805
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: That would be Bernie Sanders. Let's go ahead and put

806
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: that tear sheet up on the screen. He says very clearly, no,

807
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 1: we do not need a massive increase in the defense budget,

808
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 1: and goes on to point out that we are already

809
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: spending more on the military than the next eleven countries combined.

810
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: So look, at this point, Bernie is in a position

811
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 1: of power. As I just mentioned, he is the chair

812
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: of the Senate Budget Committee, so any sort of spending

813
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 1: priorities have to go through him. We'll see if he

814
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 1: actually is just sort of rhetorically signaling his discontent, but

815
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 1: ultimately we will go along with what the administration wants.

816
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: Or if he will do something more than that. Let's

817
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: see if he's going to talk or he'd actually do

818
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: something good. Yeah, it remains to be seen to be determined.

819
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 1: All right. This is another significant one that I wanted

820
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 1: to bring attention to. A key indicator that has predicted

821
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 1: recessions consistently since the nineteen seventies is now once again

822
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: signaling we might be headed towards a recession. However, there

823
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 1: are some caveats. I don't want people to panic yet,

824
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: go ahead and put this up on the screen. Five

825
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: year and thirty year treasury yields invert for the first

826
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: time since two thousand and six, fueling recession fears. I

827
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 1: don't know if you guys have heard this term before,

828
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 1: but oftentimes people talk about inverted bond yields. Basically, to

829
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 1: make this as simple as possible, typically the further you

830
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: go out on the time horizon, the higher return you're

831
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 1: going to get. This is basic time value of money.

832
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:22,760
Speaker 1: If you're willing to hold an instrument for a long time,

833
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: you're rewarded with the higher industry that's sort of the

834
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 1: typical that's the typical bond yield, and we're talking about

835
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: US Treasury bonds here specifically. So when things are out

836
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 1: of whack and investors are very worried about the longer

837
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 1: term prospects for an economy, then sometimes you get funky

838
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: situations in the bond yield curve where it doesn't just

839
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 1: consistently go up over time. They call that an inverted

840
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 1: bond yield. Now, usually when you're thinking about recessions, the

841
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 1: ones that investors usually look at are the two and

842
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: the ten year bond yields. Those have not inverted yet,

843
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,280
Speaker 1: although there has been significant flattening across the entire curve

844
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 1: right now, it is the five year and thirty year

845
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 1: bond yields that have inverted. So if you understand nothing else,

846
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: just know that this metric signals that the economy is

847
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,760
Speaker 1: out of whack and people are concerned about the future.

848
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: That's basically what this means. The history is also quite clear,

849
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 1: so the two and ten year treasury yield curves, that's

850
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: the one that I just said people typically look at

851
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: that hasn't inverted yet but has a lot of flattening.

852
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:36,760
Speaker 1: Those inverted before the last seven recessions since nineteen seventy. However,

853
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: the data also suggests a recession is unlikely to be

854
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: imminent when you do have a bond yield curve inversion.

855
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 1: It took seventeen months after the bond market inversion for

856
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: a downturn to start. On average. On the flip side,

857
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 1: there has been at least one, some would say two

858
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: false alarms where the bond yield curve inverted and you

859
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 1: did not end up in a recession, and the one

860
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:05,359
Speaker 1: that they're very consistent and clear about is nineteen ninety eight.

861
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 1: The other caveat that I'll put on this that people

862
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 1: who are way smarter and understand this way more than

863
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 1: I do. We're saying is that it's not clear how

864
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: much information these bond yields contain anymore because the Fed

865
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: has so has gone into the market, is so influential

866
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 1: at the market. In the market at this point, it's

867
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: effectively it's not really a free market anymore. It's effectively

868
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: sort of rigged. So how much information does this really

869
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: contain about how investors feel about the future of the

870
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:38,840
Speaker 1: economy and the shape of where we're headed in terms

871
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,760
Speaker 1: of recession. Hard to say at this point, But again,

872
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:45,800
Speaker 1: this is a key metric. It has consistently had predictive

873
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: power in terms of whether you're going to head into

874
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 1: a recession over the next year and a half or so,

875
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: and right now it has inverted for the first time

876
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 1: since two thousand and six. Right and I believe the

877
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve chairman he was pressed on this in Congress.

878
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. Is the leadership at the FED

879
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: under you and the FED prepared to do what it

880
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:13,760
Speaker 1: takes to get inflation under control and protect price stability. Well,

881
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 1: let me say I knew Paul Volker. I'm pretty sure

882
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: I saw him testify in this room many years ago.

883
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: I think he was one of the great public servants

884
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,839
Speaker 1: of the era, the greatest economic public servant in the era,

885
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 1: and I hope history will record that the answer to

886
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 1: your question is yes, So you're prepared to do what

887
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: it takes without any reservation to protect price stability. Yes,

888
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 1: that would be a departure of what you've done, Thank

889
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,320
Speaker 1: you very much. So this was Fed Chair Jerome Powell

890
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:47,399
Speaker 1: getting pressed on how serious he's going to be at

891
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 1: getting inflation under control. And why this is relevant is

892
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 1: because obviously the Fed they just announced their first rate increase,

893
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 1: and there's worry that they could move too quickly, lift

894
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: the rates too fast in an effort to get under

895
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 1: control and spark a recession. What he's saying there, he's like,

896
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: oh my god, I love Paul Vulger. He's amazing. He's

897
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: a hero, he's a role model. Vulgar is the sort

898
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 1: of storied Fed Reserve chair who aggressively raised rates during

899
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: the seventies to curb inflation at that point. And so

900
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 1: Paal is saying, this is my model. I'm going to

901
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 1: do what it takes to get price you know, to

902
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: focus on prices and get inflation under control. And the

903
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:30,239
Speaker 1: subtext is even if it causes a really brutal recession,

904
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: because while you know, at this point I said, oh,

905
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 1: Vulkler did the right thing, it's easy to forget how

906
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 1: painful it was. A time horrible Yeah, because when you

907
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 1: lift interest rates that what you're doing is you're intentionally

908
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 1: slowing down the economy. So he says, yes, I'm fully

909
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 1: committed effectively to getting inflation under control, even if it

910
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: causes the recession. As kind of the subtext of what

911
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 1: he is saying there, now, the actions have not necessarily

912
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 1: been totally consistent with that. He was under pressure, There

913
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: were under some pressure to lift rates more, to do

914
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 1: so more quickly, to act before they even did, and

915
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 1: so there's been an attempt to be sort of like

916
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 1: moderated in their actions here. So we haven't seen that

917
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 1: sparkle recession right now, but you have more and more

918
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 1: analysts who feared that we could be head in that drug. Yeah.

919
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 1: My authority on this is Joe Wisenthal over at Boomberg.

920
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 1: I really look for to him on a lot of this,

921
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 1: and it seems to be that there's been a split

922
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 1: the difference approach at the FED. The FED has a

923
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 1: dual mandate, full employment and inflation. Now, inflation is what obviously,

924
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 1: you know, people in the upper tier care the most about.

925
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: I'm not erasing exactly how it impacts the working class,

926
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 1: but I'm saying that it's generally more of an elite

927
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: concern amongst like conservatives and Republicans, just because of the

928
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 1: way it can affect markets up at the top and

929
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: interest rates as well, which affects capital, which is what

930
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: these people care the most about. And in terms of

931
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: what's happening there is that there's an immense amount of

932
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 1: pressure in order to do something about inflation, and that

933
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: becomes then a question of what is the cause of inflation?

934
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 1: Is it monetary policy or he did a supply chain

935
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 1: problem and a problem in the downstream economy. Now your

936
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 1: view of those two things, I personally think it's much

937
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 1: more of the supply chain will then lead you to

938
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: whether you have the monetary instrument that you can reach for.

939
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: The only thing that they can reach for there in

940
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: order to slow the economy down is increasing the interest rate.

941
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 1: So their acceptance and saying they're going to increase the

942
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 1: interest rate at least in part right now and over

943
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 1: the course of the next couple of years or so

944
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 1: is very much about in that direction, but they're not

945
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 1: fully bowing to what the I guess the most monetary

946
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 1: hawks would like them to do. People like Richard Shelby there.

947
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: People like Richard Shelby is a perfect example. He's chair

948
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: of the Senate Banking Committee, so that I think the

949
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 1: ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee next to be

950
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: the chair. So obviously it matters a lot. He was

951
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 1: instrumental in COVID relief in not necessarily great ways. The

952
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 1: reason why it matters for you is because if the

953
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:52,760
Speaker 1: inst rate goes up and there is a recession cause

954
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 1: which then causes the amount of cheap capital in order

955
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: to stop flowing around the system, the rich people will

956
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 1: suffer in terms of the stock portfolios. But you're the

957
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 1: one who's going to do your job, and you're the

958
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 1: one who's going to see downward pressure, especially under wages.

959
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 1: But even worse, you're going to see it in terms

960
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 1: of the supply problems already exists with the economy whenever

961
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:13,879
Speaker 1: it comes to price. So I would just say that

962
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 1: this is a real catastrophe anytime I see and I

963
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 1: don't mean the FED changing rates necessarily I'm just saying

964
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 1: the current situation, the arrow is pointing in the wrong direction.

965
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 1: I'm doing my monologue today on China, and it's COVID

966
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 1: zero policy causing even more inflation. The amount of uncertainty

967
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 1: right now in the global economy just makes me incredibly,

968
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:38,320
Speaker 1: incredibly nervous. It's very like two thousand and seven vibes

969
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 1: about what could be happening here. I think that's all

970
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: well said, And what you're pointing to is that, you know,

971
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: in an ideal functioning political system, you would have a

972
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 1: range of tools available to deal with the type of

973
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: inflation work experiencing right now, which does have a lot

974
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 1: to do with supply chain issues, with the fact that

975
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 1: we had, you know, relief checks hit people's pockets and

976
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,760
Speaker 1: they weren't able to partake in like the service economy,

977
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 1: so there's more purchasing of goods. There are some signs

978
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:09,439
Speaker 1: that some of those factors are beginning to ease, even

979
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 1: as you have other catastrophic situations unfolding that are only

980
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 1: exacerbating things. So in an ideal and perfect system, you

981
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:20,439
Speaker 1: would have a political system that could actually like pass

982
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 1: legislation and spend money to deal with the supply chain issue.

983
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: I don't mean by just like you know, giving people

984
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 1: more money, I mean by investing in the infrastructure and

985
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 1: expanding port capabilities to try to resolve these supply chain issues.

986
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 1: That would be the ideal system. Well, since the political

987
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:39,720
Speaker 1: system is so broken, the only tool that's effectively left

988
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 1: is this sort of like blunt force instrument of the FED,

989
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 1: which I mean we basically know in no uncertain terms

990
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: if they move too fast it will cause a recession.

991
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 1: So that's the terrible landscape that we are faced with

992
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:58,240
Speaker 1: right now. And I feel like every week there's another

993
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 1: sign that potentially we are headed in that direction, with

994
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 1: the bond yield curve inversion here just being the latest one. Yeah,

995
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: so everybody keep an eye on it. We're going to

996
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 1: keep you guys updated, watch it like a hawk because

997
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 1: it affects you so much. Let's move on here to

998
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 1: Hunter Biden. The gift that keeps on giving. This guy

999
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: really is a character. So let's put this latest news

1000
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Prosecutors have been advancing a

1001
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 1: tax probe of Hunter Biden. Grand jury is hearing witnesses

1002
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 1: in February about past drug use and spending habits of

1003
00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:31,279
Speaker 1: the former president's son. Now, some of these things are

1004
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 1: truly incredible and are almost out of a movie as

1005
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: to how you would exactly expect a corrupt son of

1006
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: a politician to behave who has deals with foreign oligarchs.

1007
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 1: It has nothing to do with Ukraine and it has

1008
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 1: to do with Kazakhstan in this instance, let's put this

1009
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 1: next one up there on the screen. One of the

1010
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 1: things that they are pointing to, is it Hunter in

1011
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen bought a Fisker sports car, which he then

1012
00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:00,359
Speaker 1: later traded for a Porsche, using a high one hundred

1013
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 1: and forty two thousand dollars transferred to a business account

1014
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:09,240
Speaker 1: by a Kazakh oligarch, ken gez Rajakev, who had sought

1015
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 1: business with Hunter. Now, can you think, crystal of anything

1016
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 1: more cartoonish in the behavior of somebody who is using

1017
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: sketchy dealings. We have a Eastern European oligarch direct cash,

1018
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: transfers fancy sports cars through a business account, all in

1019
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 1: the middle of a tax inquiry. But what this points

1020
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 1: to is that Hunter has been all over Washington for

1021
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 1: what three decades using the president's name or at that

1022
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 1: time his father's name, and then the Vice president of

1023
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: the United States in order to do business. I've seen

1024
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 1: some of the emails of what he's been doing. My

1025
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,960
Speaker 1: personal favorite is he was trying to secure like a

1026
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 1: professorship at Georgetown where he had been and said that

1027
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 1: he would use his dad's position as the drugs are

1028
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 1: and relationship with South America to get the president of

1029
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: Columbia in order to to come and speak at the university. Thus,

1030
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: why Georgetown should pay him some forty five minutes. Now,

1031
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:08,800
Speaker 1: that is a microcosm of the corruption. Oh, it's ridiculous.

1032
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 1: It says it out there completely in the open, and

1033
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 1: with the rest of the emails, what you just see

1034
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 1: over and over again is the use of the president's

1035
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:22,399
Speaker 1: name in order to get inordinate amount of cash out

1036
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 1: of these sketchy countries Ukraine and Barisma is well trodden.

1037
00:55:25,520 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 1: Fifty thousand dollars a month actually could have been up

1038
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 1: to eighty thousand dollars a month. This kazakh olargark one

1039
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 1: hundred and forty two grand. Him and James Biden had

1040
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 1: a Chinese slush fund which the Chinese government would just

1041
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 1: transfer straight up cash, and him and James Biden, who

1042
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:40,840
Speaker 1: is Biden's brother would go out and just buy MacBooks

1043
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,719
Speaker 1: and laptops and airfare and all this stuff straight out

1044
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 1: of this stuff. And also from a tax perspective, he

1045
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 1: clearly has not been paying his taxes. I mean allegedly

1046
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,319
Speaker 1: okay for Hunter's lawyers, but you know, if you're just

1047
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,280
Speaker 1: taking straight up money cash out of your business account

1048
00:55:56,480 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 1: and buying cars, fancy sports cars now that we're small

1049
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 1: business owners, I can just can't even imagine what the

1050
00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:04,880
Speaker 1: accountants would do when you were here to do some

1051
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,800
Speaker 1: sort of madness, like they're like, what are you doing?

1052
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 1: They're not legal these things. It's very careful. Yeah, we

1053
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 1: dot all our eyes and cross the keys here simply

1054
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 1: because you know, we you know, talk a little bit

1055
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: of smack about the I R s. But you would

1056
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,799
Speaker 1: think that if you're the president's son that you would

1057
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 1: take even more care. But it seems to have been

1058
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:29,399
Speaker 1: the opposite. He thought he could get away with, yes, right,

1059
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 1: I just want to go through the details on the

1060
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal more about the sports car, because it

1061
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,879
Speaker 1: really is a perfect window into the way that he

1062
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 1: traded his on his name and his theoretical access in

1063
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:46,279
Speaker 1: order to fund what was clearly uh lavish lifestyle. And

1064
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 1: you know, the allegation here that is being probe by

1065
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 1: grand jury is whether, as part of funding that lavish lifestyle,

1066
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:55,799
Speaker 1: he also failed to pay his taxes and engaged in

1067
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,319
Speaker 1: illegal shenanigans to avoid doing so. We also know that

1068
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 1: he had to buy a million dollars in order to

1069
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 1: help get himself current on his existing tax life bill.

1070
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 1: You got money front, by the way, I'd love to

1071
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 1: know that, great question. So here's how the car thing

1072
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 1: went down. This is for the Wall Street Journal. In

1073
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 1: April twenty fourteen, a business associated mister Biden from Kazakhstan

1074
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: wired one hundred and forty two three hundred dollars. So

1075
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 1: he's not buying like Ahnda Civic. Here guys to Rosemont Seneca.

1076
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: This is a Delaware corporation with ties to Hunter Biden.

1077
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:32,440
Speaker 1: They were earmarked in the bank record as quote for

1078
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: a car. So I guess I'm like the memo line

1079
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 1: that you put when you do a wire transfer or whatever.

1080
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 1: They just wrote for a car. A day after the

1081
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 1: money was received by Rosemont Seneca, the entity's banking statements

1082
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 1: showed that they wired that same amount to a New

1083
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 1: Jersey car dealer. The money purchased a Fisker sports car

1084
00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:54,200
Speaker 1: for use by Hunter Biden, but was owned in the

1085
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 1: name of that corporation, Rosemont, Seneca. According to a former

1086
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 1: associate and another person, Hunter Biden later traded the Fisker

1087
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 1: for a silver Porsche. That associate added, and you know,

1088
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 1: there's some speculation in this piece about whether they may

1089
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 1: actually fall a file charges against hunter Biden in this

1090
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 1: federal tax investigation. One of the things that they point

1091
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 1: to here is that reportedly prosecutors were extensively questioning people

1092
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 1: on Hunters drug and alcohol use, his spending habits, and

1093
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 1: his state of mind in twenty eighteen. And their analysis

1094
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: is that this could suggest prosecutors are exploring whether such

1095
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: activity would present a defense against a potential criminal tax case. Again,

1096
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 1: this could be an indication that they are seriously considering

1097
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 1: charges and that you know, they're trying to probe like

1098
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 1: what the potential defenses would be so that they can

1099
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 1: make sure that they're sort of protected against him saying, look,

1100
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 1: I was in you know, I was in recovery of

1101
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 1: struggling at mental health issues, and so I should be

1102
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 1: seen with some lenience in my dealing story this time.

1103
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:04,880
Speaker 1: I have sympathy for anybody who is struggling with addiction.

1104
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 1: But as you have pointed it out, it is the

1105
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 1: height of privilege. You know. I just got back from

1106
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 1: Los Angeles. I saw human suffering on a scale that

1107
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 1: I did not think existed in the United States of America.

1108
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 1: When I went to skid Row, I genuinely thought I

1109
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 1: was back in Cambodia or the slums of Mumbai. That's

1110
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 1: what it actually felt like. I couldn't believe my eyes

1111
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:26,160
Speaker 1: in terms of what I was seeing. Do you think

1112
00:59:26,200 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 1: those people are allowed to covort with European prostitutes around

1113
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 1: the globe and wire hundreds of thousands of dollars from

1114
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:37,920
Speaker 1: Kazakh oligarch given a pass this entire time. No, these

1115
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 1: people can barely jaywalk without being arrested and thrown into

1116
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 1: so when they are treated in the same way, maybe

1117
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:48,320
Speaker 1: for a tiny joint in their pocket, if they Whenever

1118
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 1: I see people on skid Row who are being raped

1119
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,640
Speaker 1: and taken advantage of out on the street, treated with

1120
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:59,280
Speaker 1: the same level of compassion by the justice system that

1121
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 1: we then see mister Biden traded by, we can have

1122
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 1: a discussion. Well, until then, screw you and tad insult

1123
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:08,240
Speaker 1: to injury his own father is the one who architected

1124
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:11,480
Speaker 1: those tough on crime rules and continues to be a

1125
01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: front of the line drug warrior even as president, and

1126
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 1: you know, wildly out of seat with the American Republicans.

1127
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 1: So until then, then you're not pleading how I was,

1128
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:24,280
Speaker 1: you know, dealing with Okay, you know a lot of

1129
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 1: people are and you know what, they don't even a

1130
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 1: penny to their name and get bankrupted, and when they

1131
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 1: steal like a TV or whatever, thrown in jail, you

1132
01:00:32,080 --> 01:00:34,680
Speaker 1: think they're gonna plead, oh, I was high under eating

1133
01:00:34,720 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 1: the judge cares. We don't shouldn't care either. This is

1134
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:40,240
Speaker 1: not only money that is owed to the United States Treasury,

1135
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 1: but this is somebody who used the influence of his

1136
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 1: father clearly in order to live some crazy, high flying lifestyle.

1137
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 1: And it is the height of degeneracy for a regime

1138
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 1: in order to excuse this type of behavior, especially whenever

1139
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 1: we are prosecuting people at the very lowest level of

1140
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 1: the wrong and you're not hearing any of this on

1141
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 1: the media. Put this next one up there on the screen,

1142
01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:07,640
Speaker 1: which is that even though these current emails show that

1143
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 1: Biden obviously lied about the extent of his knowledge. ABC News,

1144
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 1: CBS News, NBC News have not mentioned Hunter Biden's name

1145
01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 1: in two hundred and fifty nine days. This is from

1146
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 1: an analysis by NewsBusters in terms of the transcript reviews

1147
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 1: of those three channels, those are the way that millions

1148
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 1: of people get their news in this country. They have

1149
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 1: no idea that any of this is a thing. Are

1150
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 1: we saying that this is the most important thing. There's

1151
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 1: a reason it's all this way late into the show. Okay,

1152
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 1: Biden and Ukraine obviously more important, the budget, billionaire's tax

1153
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 1: more important, Fed also more important. But the president's son

1154
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 1: having sketchy dealings with foreign oligarchs is a problem. And

1155
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 1: we said the same thing when Jared Kushner was begging

1156
01:01:51,720 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 1: for Saudi cash after leaving the White House, when Steve

1157
01:01:54,440 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 1: Mnushan was begging for cash, when Ivanka Trump was having

1158
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:00,640
Speaker 1: dealings with Norsom and the Chinese government, when Jared's brother

1159
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 1: was asking for visas for high a vip Chinese and

1160
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,400
Speaker 1: promising them access to the White House, all of that

1161
01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:09,960
Speaker 1: is equally corrupt and spent a decent amount of time

1162
01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:12,439
Speaker 1: on it, or whenever foreign diplomats stayed at the Trump

1163
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 1: hotel here in Washington, d C. And even Zelenski, by

1164
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 1: the way, do you remember the perfect phone call? The

1165
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:21,080
Speaker 1: most objectionable thing to about the perfect phone call to

1166
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 1: me is when Zelensky was like, by the way, mister President,

1167
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 1: we stayed at Trump Hotel. I was like, oh, this

1168
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 1: is sorry, this is disgusting. I mean, we're not talking

1169
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:32,840
Speaker 1: about the part of the Lenscape, not that Zlensk. But yeah,

1170
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 1: some of us remember, you know, funny that perfect phone call.

1171
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 1: I was thinking about that in the A block when

1172
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:40,840
Speaker 1: we were talking about Biden saying like, there's nothing wrong

1173
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: on these things. It was perfect, right. Uh. Oh, It's

1174
01:02:44,080 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 1: sad how similar these men can be in certain respects.

1175
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's also Look, the corruption itself is worth

1176
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 1: covering and we're talking about and it's a window into

1177
01:02:54,000 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 1: sort of standard issue practices and corruption that have been

1178
01:02:57,000 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 1: accepted in this town for far too long. But it

1179
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 1: is also a media story because they really did go

1180
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 1: to the mat in you know, collusion with the security

1181
01:03:07,640 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 1: state and the tech companies to try to protect Hunter

1182
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:16,520
Speaker 1: and by extension, his father from any scrutiny on these issues.

1183
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 1: I think the American people should have information. I think

1184
01:03:18,800 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 1: they should be able to make their own judgments, and frankly,

1185
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:23,000
Speaker 1: I think they probably would have still elected Joe Biden.

1186
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 1: And by the way, you know, by trying to cover

1187
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,160
Speaker 1: all of this up, they created a lot more interest

1188
01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:30,760
Speaker 1: in the story than there was if they had just

1189
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 1: let it sort of run its course through reporting and investigation.

1190
01:03:35,760 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 1: But the fact that they're so so uneven in their

1191
01:03:39,920 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 1: coverage of the corruption, which was very real and very

1192
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: worthy of coverage of the Trump family and the Biden family,

1193
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: it also plays into, you know, real concern about how

1194
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 1: even handed and how fair the media actually is in

1195
01:03:57,240 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 1: covering these things. There are a few reporters out there,

1196
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 1: Ken Vogel, who we put up on this sta who

1197
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:04,760
Speaker 1: really does you know, both sides of the aisle. He's

1198
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:07,680
Speaker 1: looking for he's following the money, you know, David Serota

1199
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 1: and his team over at the lever same deal. But

1200
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 1: those types are few and far between, sadly. Yeah, that's right, Okay,

1201
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and move on. Speaking of the media,

1202
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 1: the most important story. Yeah, oh, this is the fun block. Okay.

1203
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: We went ahead and decided to curate some of the

1204
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 1: worst Will Smith takes that are out there, and without fail,

1205
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:31,000
Speaker 1: what is the one thing that you can always expect

1206
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:34,120
Speaker 1: to be brought up by resistance russiagators. Whenever it comes

1207
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:38,240
Speaker 1: to any cultural moment, it's Donald Trump and somehow these

1208
01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:42,480
Speaker 1: idiots made the Will Smith Chris Rock incident into a

1209
01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 1: Trump thing. Asha Raganapov, let's put I honestly, you have

1210
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 1: to respect the former FBI agent a disgrace to us

1211
01:04:50,120 --> 01:04:52,880
Speaker 1: South Indians out here in media, says quote, So did

1212
01:04:52,920 --> 01:04:56,440
Speaker 1: anyone like walk out after that happened? Or are we

1213
01:04:56,560 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 1: getting an independent psychological case study on how Trump got normalized?

1214
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:05,959
Speaker 1: What what does Trump have to do with one guy

1215
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:09,520
Speaker 1: slapping another guy about a joke around his wife. Let's

1216
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 1: go to the next one up here, Howard Stern, This

1217
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 1: shows me that the brain worm goes deep. Same thing,

1218
01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:20,200
Speaker 1: Howard Stern says, Will Smith slapping Chris Rock because quote

1219
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:24,280
Speaker 1: Will Smith and Trump are the same guy, it gets worse. People,

1220
01:05:24,560 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: It's still going. Let's go to the next one, please,

1221
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:31,760
Speaker 1: Steve Schmidt over at MSNBC Lincoln Project. The oscars have

1222
01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 1: demonstrated the power of group psychology. The room is a

1223
01:05:35,160 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 1: hermetically sealed bubble where all moors can be eradicated. In

1224
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:42,360
Speaker 1: the second, do you want to understand how Trump happened.

1225
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:46,440
Speaker 1: Watch the oscars and the crowd reaction. The poll to

1226
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 1: belong is very powerful. There's actually a thread that continues.

1227
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:52,080
Speaker 1: He says. The poll to conform of what is happening

1228
01:05:52,120 --> 01:05:54,160
Speaker 1: around you is a powerful tide. Applause for assault in

1229
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:56,720
Speaker 1: a tuxedo is the same as applause for assault of

1230
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,760
Speaker 1: white wearing a red hat in Alabama. That was a crime.

1231
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:03,520
Speaker 1: There is no virtue, none whatsoever. Oh my god, guys,

1232
01:06:03,560 --> 01:06:05,880
Speaker 1: why can't we just look at it for what it was.

1233
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 1: Here's my person. You want to talk about the power

1234
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:11,880
Speaker 1: of group psychology. Site that series of takes that we

1235
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 1: just Now that's some group psychology for you. Oh that's

1236
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:17,880
Speaker 1: a good take, right, Okay, Now this is my personal

1237
01:06:17,880 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: favorite one. Let's go and put this out there on

1238
01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:22,640
Speaker 1: the screen. This is actually a viral twitters he says,

1239
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 1: quote to clarify on the earlier tweet, I had to delete.

1240
01:06:26,000 --> 01:06:28,840
Speaker 1: I'm obviously not saying it was the same as nine

1241
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 1: to eleven, But Will Smith slapping Chris Rock had a

1242
01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 1: similar live TV shock value that will echo throughout our culture.

1243
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:41,960
Speaker 1: Nine to eleven was worse. But Mohammed Atah did not

1244
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:46,360
Speaker 1: win an Oscar right afterwards. Dude, that is yeah, that's

1245
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 1: the only substantive difference that he didn't get an oscar

1246
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,480
Speaker 1: right now, Galaxy brain that you have to have in

1247
01:06:52,600 --> 01:06:54,760
Speaker 1: order to think that that is a good take. We

1248
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:57,919
Speaker 1: didn't know what the original tweets that I couldn't find it,

1249
01:06:58,040 --> 01:07:01,160
Speaker 1: but I mean it must have been even worse than

1250
01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 1: the exploration. It wasn't nine to eleven, but you know

1251
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:08,280
Speaker 1: it was basically like the same impact on our society

1252
01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:10,520
Speaker 1: and on our culture. We can continue going because it

1253
01:07:10,560 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 1: gets even worse. Let's put this one up there on

1254
01:07:12,720 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 1: the screen. This is a commentary form Matthew Donica. He

1255
01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 1: says the will Smith doctrine has no place in Ukraine,

1256
01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 1: and in that he says acts of aggression should not

1257
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 1: be rewarded. President Biden was only speaking the unpalatable truth

1258
01:07:29,320 --> 01:07:33,040
Speaker 1: when he said that Putin had to go. Please. You

1259
01:07:33,080 --> 01:07:37,880
Speaker 1: can just imagine like this person workshopping this, figuring out

1260
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:40,680
Speaker 1: how to get people to click on what is a

1261
01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:44,520
Speaker 1: like completely standard issue foreign policy take, and you're like,

1262
01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:47,280
Speaker 1: I know, I'm gonna tie this in somehow to the

1263
01:07:47,320 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 1: Will Smith slapping incident. It was just incredible to see

1264
01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 1: the way people routinely took like whatever their pet cause

1265
01:07:55,240 --> 01:08:00,280
Speaker 1: or issue was. Yes, and like filter force the will

1266
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:04,400
Speaker 1: Smith thing through that lens, no matter how tortured or strained.

1267
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, there were there were takes that somehow that

1268
01:08:08,600 --> 01:08:11,440
Speaker 1: linked this to Ukraine, like that one. There were many

1269
01:08:11,640 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 1: resistance takes. Oh, I liked this one. This one was

1270
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:17,200
Speaker 1: just like over the top. Jud A Vatalis with this

1271
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 1: one up on the screen he said will Smith could

1272
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:23,559
Speaker 1: have killed him, could have killed him from a slap

1273
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:26,080
Speaker 1: in the face. He could have killed it. That's pure

1274
01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,519
Speaker 1: of control rage and violence. Yeah, come on, guys, this

1275
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:33,360
Speaker 1: is just this is silly. And of course, you know

1276
01:08:33,720 --> 01:08:36,599
Speaker 1: you could also make the point that don't look up.

1277
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:39,600
Speaker 1: Of course did not win for Best Picture, and it

1278
01:08:39,720 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 1: was sort of smeared by some as being too over

1279
01:08:42,560 --> 01:08:45,519
Speaker 1: the top in our media's distraction and obsession with like

1280
01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:49,599
Speaker 1: frivolity and celebrity culture. And yet here we are. It's

1281
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:52,160
Speaker 1: kind of a statement that they were only way too

1282
01:08:52,200 --> 01:08:55,880
Speaker 1: accurate in their assessment of what people ultimately assess, obsess

1283
01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:59,880
Speaker 1: about and get their all their outraged juices flowing over right. Yeah,

1284
01:08:59,880 --> 01:09:02,360
Speaker 1: I think that this entire thing is just completely and

1285
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:05,600
Speaker 1: totally ridiculous. Uh, it can just evaluate it for what

1286
01:09:05,640 --> 01:09:07,280
Speaker 1: it was to be like, wow, that was kind of crazy,

1287
01:09:07,520 --> 01:09:09,799
Speaker 1: and then let's all just move on with our lives.

1288
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:12,800
Speaker 1: This is a dispute between Mills, will Smith and Chris Rock.

1289
01:09:12,800 --> 01:09:16,479
Speaker 1: Apparently they've worked it out amongst apologize. Okay, yeah, some

1290
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 1: fake tested apology, but whatever Chris Rock, Chris Rock well charges, yeah,

1291
01:09:21,320 --> 01:09:24,160
Speaker 1: he was like he mediated the dispute. That's right, Thank you,

1292
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 1: p Diddy or Diddy whatever is going by these days.

1293
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 1: I'm a boomer. I apologize. There was one other take

1294
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:32,120
Speaker 1: we didn't include, but I just have to mention, which

1295
01:09:32,160 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 1: is because it's a consistent theme. Joy Bayhart managed to

1296
01:09:34,840 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 1: make it about herself. Oh really Oh maybe she tried

1297
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:41,840
Speaker 1: to tie it to her Italian vacation. The only real,

1298
01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:44,320
Speaker 1: you know, significant damage of the Ukraine War is of course,

1299
01:09:44,320 --> 01:09:47,559
Speaker 1: who are solidarity with Joy? Who was on her Tuscany

1300
01:09:47,640 --> 01:09:54,360
Speaker 1: is beautiful Italian vacation perhaps for another year. All right, saga,

1301
01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:56,000
Speaker 1: what are you looking at it? Well, the story of

1302
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:58,720
Speaker 1: how the sanctions on Russia have realigned the global order

1303
01:09:58,760 --> 01:10:00,840
Speaker 1: and will increase prices for all of us. It's very

1304
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:03,120
Speaker 1: well trodden ground at this point. But in the midst

1305
01:10:03,160 --> 01:10:05,840
Speaker 1: of what some other major actions that will influence our

1306
01:10:05,880 --> 01:10:09,240
Speaker 1: economic future have continued, they fly under the radar. I've

1307
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:11,240
Speaker 1: been doing my best here to draw attention to how

1308
01:10:11,320 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 1: China's COVID zero insanity could have major ramifications for us

1309
01:10:15,880 --> 01:10:19,120
Speaker 1: here at home, and unfortunately they continue down their path

1310
01:10:19,439 --> 01:10:23,320
Speaker 1: of this madness, despite literally on Saturday promising the world

1311
01:10:23,400 --> 01:10:26,639
Speaker 1: it would not do so. Shanghai authorities announced they would

1312
01:10:26,680 --> 01:10:29,439
Speaker 1: be doing a full scale, two phase lockdown of the

1313
01:10:29,640 --> 01:10:33,400
Speaker 1: entire city of twenty six million over just thirty five

1314
01:10:33,520 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 1: hundred COVID infections. The lockdown can find some people to

1315
01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:40,439
Speaker 1: their homes, others even to their offices, where they are

1316
01:10:40,479 --> 01:10:43,280
Speaker 1: required to stay in place so that they can implement

1317
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:47,400
Speaker 1: a mass testing protocol. Per Chinese authorities who announced the policy,

1318
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 1: their goal is to achieve quote stillness, to stop the

1319
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 1: variant now. While some of us here in the West

1320
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:56,760
Speaker 1: long ago except that the transmissibility of omicron made any

1321
01:10:56,800 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 1: attempts at lockdown or pandemic mitigation impossible, that we simply

1322
01:11:00,400 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 1: had to move on with our lives, and that people

1323
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:04,600
Speaker 1: could get vacs that they wanted to. They apparently have

1324
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:07,479
Speaker 1: not yet reached that conclusion in China, while the Chinese

1325
01:11:07,520 --> 01:11:09,880
Speaker 1: people are almost certainly feeling as annoyed as the rest

1326
01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:13,559
Speaker 1: of us. Unfortunately, for them, they live in an authoritarian country,

1327
01:11:13,680 --> 01:11:16,200
Speaker 1: and what the authoritarians believe is the only thing that

1328
01:11:16,320 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 1: is important. However, if you look further, it's a problem.

1329
01:11:19,800 --> 01:11:22,679
Speaker 1: As I noted last time, China, for reasons that remain

1330
01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:25,040
Speaker 1: a mystery to me, has done a not very good

1331
01:11:25,160 --> 01:11:29,320
Speaker 1: job of vaccinating its elderly population. Only fifty one percent

1332
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:32,040
Speaker 1: of its population over eighty years old have received two

1333
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:34,840
Speaker 1: COVID shots, while only twenty percent of those have been

1334
01:11:34,880 --> 01:11:38,280
Speaker 1: boosted and over sixty is just as bad. Of the

1335
01:11:38,320 --> 01:11:41,879
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty four million Chinese people aged sixty

1336
01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:45,720
Speaker 1: and over, only fifty two million are fully vaccinated. The

1337
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:47,960
Speaker 1: reason that we in the West don't face the same

1338
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:51,800
Speaker 1: situation is obviously because we have a very very high

1339
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:55,400
Speaker 1: vaccination rate amongst our elderly population, who of course are

1340
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 1: the most at risk of this disease. Ironically, enough, reporting

1341
01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:04,360
Speaker 1: from inside indicates that many elderly Chinese did not get

1342
01:12:04,400 --> 01:12:07,920
Speaker 1: the vaccine because they were confident enough in the COVID

1343
01:12:08,000 --> 01:12:11,800
Speaker 1: zero policy, as in, they refuse to get the vaccine

1344
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:14,960
Speaker 1: because they simply thought they'd never be exposed and trusted

1345
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:18,839
Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party, So now when the Omicron variant

1346
01:12:18,880 --> 01:12:22,839
Speaker 1: rolls around, that defies any realistic attempt to contain COVID.

1347
01:12:23,160 --> 01:12:26,960
Speaker 1: This is really bad. It means shen Zen and Shanghai

1348
01:12:27,000 --> 01:12:29,880
Speaker 1: are the beginning of this coming disaster. There is no

1349
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,320
Speaker 1: way they're going to be able to vaccinate one hundred

1350
01:12:32,360 --> 01:12:36,000
Speaker 1: and fifty million or so Chinese elderly fully before Omicron

1351
01:12:36,080 --> 01:12:38,519
Speaker 1: is going to wreck this whole country. That means they

1352
01:12:38,520 --> 01:12:40,840
Speaker 1: are about to get to get swarmed by mass death.

1353
01:12:41,080 --> 01:12:44,160
Speaker 1: And as Bloomberg notes, it's not exactly like China has

1354
01:12:44,200 --> 01:12:47,360
Speaker 1: a great rural hospital network. I genuinely feel for the

1355
01:12:47,439 --> 01:12:50,680
Speaker 1: Chinese people. Their government failed to contain this pandemic in

1356
01:12:50,760 --> 01:12:53,320
Speaker 1: the first place, put them all through misery of the

1357
01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:56,479
Speaker 1: last two years, and then did such a poor job.

1358
01:12:56,720 --> 01:13:00,559
Speaker 1: It is now about to kill millions of their old people,

1359
01:13:01,000 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 1: and they still have to lock down worst of all

1360
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:07,519
Speaker 1: worlds two years into this thing. But beyond them, this

1361
01:13:07,560 --> 01:13:09,840
Speaker 1: is going to affect us too, As I covered, when

1362
01:13:09,840 --> 01:13:12,559
Speaker 1: Shenjen lockdown, these policies are going to have a massive

1363
01:13:12,600 --> 01:13:15,439
Speaker 1: direct effect on the US economy. When Shenjin shut down,

1364
01:13:15,439 --> 01:13:17,759
Speaker 1: it meant Apple iPhones had to stop at fox Con.

1365
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:19,640
Speaker 1: It appears here that could have been the tip of

1366
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 1: the iceberg freezing up nearly three hundred billion a year alone.

1367
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:26,400
Speaker 1: In export goods, Shanghai is very similar just last year.

1368
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:31,160
Speaker 1: Last year, Shanghai exported two hundred billion worth of goods alone,

1369
01:13:31,520 --> 01:13:34,679
Speaker 1: making it the fifth largest in the entire country. Worse

1370
01:13:34,760 --> 01:13:38,080
Speaker 1: for US, what are the top goods at Shanghai exports?

1371
01:13:38,400 --> 01:13:44,280
Speaker 1: Automatic data processing machines, phones for cellular networks, electronic integrated circuits,

1372
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:47,640
Speaker 1: computer processing equipment. Now tell me is that important to

1373
01:13:47,680 --> 01:13:50,320
Speaker 1: the global economy? Oh? Yeah, By the way, they're the

1374
01:13:50,320 --> 01:13:52,799
Speaker 1: only ones that make it at that scale. Now, consider

1375
01:13:52,880 --> 01:13:56,120
Speaker 1: the entire Chinese economy locking down over the next two months,

1376
01:13:56,160 --> 01:13:58,960
Speaker 1: precisely when we're going to feel the actual effect of

1377
01:13:59,000 --> 01:14:02,719
Speaker 1: the new disruptives against Russia. What do we have? Disaster?

1378
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:05,280
Speaker 1: I'm not the only person noticing this. The only piece

1379
01:14:05,280 --> 01:14:08,000
Speaker 1: of good news out of this lockdown is that oil

1380
01:14:08,040 --> 01:14:10,960
Speaker 1: price is actually dropped by seven percent on the news

1381
01:14:10,960 --> 01:14:13,559
Speaker 1: of it, because it means that China, which is the

1382
01:14:13,680 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 1: number one importer of oil, is very likely to go

1383
01:14:17,040 --> 01:14:19,519
Speaker 1: into lockdown, and thus is they're going to have a

1384
01:14:19,520 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 1: lot less demand and perhaps cheaper gas for us here

1385
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:25,519
Speaker 1: at home. That's macab but potentially positive benefit for us

1386
01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:28,040
Speaker 1: on this end, but it would still be catastrophic and

1387
01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:30,439
Speaker 1: make up for it because we still have to wait

1388
01:14:30,479 --> 01:14:33,200
Speaker 1: for spare parts, consumer electronics, and many of the other

1389
01:14:33,280 --> 01:14:38,080
Speaker 1: necessities of daily life. Globalization is collapsing all around us.

1390
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,080
Speaker 1: If you think we can simply buy things from new places,

1391
01:14:41,320 --> 01:14:44,040
Speaker 1: you're wrong. The problem is that we need a way

1392
01:14:44,200 --> 01:14:46,639
Speaker 1: to get it here, and we remain in a massive

1393
01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:50,479
Speaker 1: shipping container crunch. The vast majority of the containers are aware.

1394
01:14:50,920 --> 01:14:53,479
Speaker 1: Oh that's right, stuck in China where because of a

1395
01:14:53,560 --> 01:14:56,160
Speaker 1: variety of reasons, we've been sending too many back because

1396
01:14:56,160 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 1: of a traded balance. Can't get them out unless they

1397
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:00,880
Speaker 1: ship stuff to us, and if they locked down, good luck.

1398
01:15:01,160 --> 01:15:04,400
Speaker 1: The global shortage and shipping, the high oil prices, inability

1399
01:15:04,439 --> 01:15:07,080
Speaker 1: to reproduce these goods, it is going to wreak havoc

1400
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:09,599
Speaker 1: on the US and the global economy. The American way

1401
01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:12,640
Speaker 1: of life in ways that we barely even understand, is

1402
01:15:12,680 --> 01:15:16,000
Speaker 1: eroding slowly but surely. We are being taxed for the

1403
01:15:16,040 --> 01:15:19,120
Speaker 1: sins of our leaders in the past, who shipped jobs

1404
01:15:19,160 --> 01:15:22,920
Speaker 1: and capacity overseas with the promise of cheap prices. Today

1405
01:15:23,120 --> 01:15:25,599
Speaker 1: things are actually the worst of all worlds. We have

1406
01:15:25,880 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 1: high prices and we make nothing. Nothing is made here.

1407
01:15:29,479 --> 01:15:32,080
Speaker 1: We have no proper skills or ability to scale up

1408
01:15:32,080 --> 01:15:36,160
Speaker 1: in a time of problem, so we're incredibly vulnerable economically.

1409
01:15:36,439 --> 01:15:38,960
Speaker 1: A dark thought I've had lately is that we would

1410
01:15:39,000 --> 01:15:41,800
Speaker 1: we really survive another war? At least in the lead

1411
01:15:41,880 --> 01:15:44,200
Speaker 1: up to World War Two we had a concerted effort

1412
01:15:44,439 --> 01:15:46,960
Speaker 1: of industry here at home and even build up even

1413
01:15:47,000 --> 01:15:49,200
Speaker 1: though we had the Great Depression, we still had a

1414
01:15:49,200 --> 01:15:52,080
Speaker 1: big industrial capacity. Do we really have that right now?

1415
01:15:52,320 --> 01:15:54,599
Speaker 1: Wouldn't we need parts from other countries just to make

1416
01:15:54,640 --> 01:15:57,559
Speaker 1: sure our weapons work? Or what about the things outside

1417
01:15:57,600 --> 01:16:00,360
Speaker 1: of weapons? Can the home front really stand? And in

1418
01:16:00,400 --> 01:16:03,639
Speaker 1: the era of globalization, one of the promises of making

1419
01:16:03,760 --> 01:16:06,960
Speaker 1: us domestically weaker by the elites was that they said

1420
01:16:07,000 --> 01:16:09,960
Speaker 1: the likelihood of war would then decrease because we're all

1421
01:16:10,000 --> 01:16:12,439
Speaker 1: trading with one another and everyone will be democracies and

1422
01:16:12,479 --> 01:16:16,160
Speaker 1: friends and our commedies are all connected. Instead, war today

1423
01:16:16,560 --> 01:16:20,600
Speaker 1: is more likely than ever before. Our adversaries are authoritarians,

1424
01:16:20,760 --> 01:16:22,800
Speaker 1: and they are ones who are willing to not only

1425
01:16:22,840 --> 01:16:26,120
Speaker 1: start wars, but also possibly cut us off in that process,

1426
01:16:26,360 --> 01:16:28,879
Speaker 1: and perhaps it's what we deserve for being such fools

1427
01:16:28,880 --> 01:16:30,880
Speaker 1: in the past in the first place. All we can

1428
01:16:30,920 --> 01:16:33,519
Speaker 1: do now is fix it, and too bad. Joe Biden

1429
01:16:33,520 --> 01:16:35,680
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to want to do any of that, and

1430
01:16:35,720 --> 01:16:37,840
Speaker 1: Trump was two enough to live it up to any

1431
01:16:37,880 --> 01:16:40,559
Speaker 1: of these promises. It seems fitting to have them both

1432
01:16:40,600 --> 01:16:43,519
Speaker 1: as the only two options in these times. I honestly,

1433
01:16:43,680 --> 01:16:45,320
Speaker 1: I hope that we can make it through, but I'm

1434
01:16:45,320 --> 01:16:48,040
Speaker 1: not so sure. I don't know, Crystal, it's really depressing.

1435
01:16:48,400 --> 01:16:50,559
Speaker 1: First of all, I actually feel terrible for the Chinese people.

1436
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:52,439
Speaker 1: I mean, they're about to get it. And if you

1437
01:16:52,479 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue, become a

1438
01:16:55,360 --> 01:17:01,479
Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. Chrystl what are

1439
01:17:01,479 --> 01:17:03,320
Speaker 1: you take a look at? Well, Guys, you might recall

1440
01:17:03,360 --> 01:17:05,880
Speaker 1: when we interviewed John Stewart in the early days of

1441
01:17:05,920 --> 01:17:08,360
Speaker 1: Russia's war in Ukraine, he told us he was really

1442
01:17:08,400 --> 01:17:11,599
Speaker 1: impressed with the media's coverage of the war. He actually

1443
01:17:11,600 --> 01:17:13,680
Speaker 1: held it up as an example of the best of

1444
01:17:13,720 --> 01:17:15,800
Speaker 1: cable news and what it should strive for all the time.

1445
01:17:15,840 --> 01:17:18,120
Speaker 1: As a way of arguing that cable news could be

1446
01:17:18,240 --> 01:17:21,160
Speaker 1: done well if only the individuals involved decided to make

1447
01:17:21,200 --> 01:17:24,640
Speaker 1: better choices. But now with a month plus of war

1448
01:17:24,760 --> 01:17:28,040
Speaker 1: coverage under our belt, John is apparently no longer feeling

1449
01:17:28,120 --> 01:17:30,759
Speaker 1: so great about how the media's war coverage is going.

1450
01:17:31,400 --> 01:17:34,880
Speaker 1: So what happens, I think, especially with the twenty four

1451
01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:41,599
Speaker 1: hour cable networks, is they find their narratives and then

1452
01:17:41,800 --> 01:17:45,720
Speaker 1: so when the invasion first occurred, it was an all

1453
01:17:45,800 --> 01:17:51,360
Speaker 1: hands on deck twenty four eyewitness. The bravery was incredible.

1454
01:17:51,439 --> 01:17:56,560
Speaker 1: They lost the entire right left polarity of coverage. Punditree

1455
01:17:56,640 --> 01:18:00,679
Speaker 1: went out the window. It was just about brave people

1456
01:18:00,920 --> 01:18:06,240
Speaker 1: on the ground and those who were expert in conflict

1457
01:18:06,360 --> 01:18:12,759
Speaker 1: in the studio, and they would have conversations about what

1458
01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:17,160
Speaker 1: was actually happening. But it doesn't take long for mission

1459
01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:22,200
Speaker 1: creep to set in with journalists who then become the

1460
01:18:22,360 --> 01:18:26,400
Speaker 1: what's like, This is a siege, and a siege is

1461
01:18:26,479 --> 01:18:32,160
Speaker 1: by its very nature static and the carnage is unspeakable,

1462
01:18:33,400 --> 01:18:37,840
Speaker 1: but it is the same, and journalists want movement, they

1463
01:18:37,880 --> 01:18:40,639
Speaker 1: want action. And as you're watching, you know, I looked

1464
01:18:40,640 --> 01:18:44,519
Speaker 1: at that. I think the intercept send something out. It

1465
01:18:44,680 --> 01:18:47,759
Speaker 1: was the White house correspondence that are all like, would

1466
01:18:47,800 --> 01:18:51,559
Speaker 1: you bomb them if they touched Poland? How about this?

1467
01:18:51,960 --> 01:18:54,679
Speaker 1: Would you bomb them if they had a drone? Okay, okay,

1468
01:18:55,439 --> 01:18:57,479
Speaker 1: let's look at it this way. What would it take

1469
01:18:57,880 --> 01:19:01,120
Speaker 1: for you to bomb them? How about bombing them? You know,

1470
01:19:01,280 --> 01:19:04,360
Speaker 1: we have a question for you bombs? What about those?

1471
01:19:04,800 --> 01:19:07,960
Speaker 1: That's the part where you realize they're trapped in a

1472
01:19:08,000 --> 01:19:14,320
Speaker 1: business model that creates news as narratives. It's one thing

1473
01:19:14,439 --> 01:19:19,360
Speaker 1: to tell stories, it's another thing to direct them and

1474
01:19:19,439 --> 01:19:22,519
Speaker 1: to start to try and shape them. And that's what

1475
01:19:22,600 --> 01:19:24,880
Speaker 1: I'm starting to see. But here's the thing that's fucked

1476
01:19:24,920 --> 01:19:27,480
Speaker 1: up in my mind. There ain't a lot of questions

1477
01:19:27,680 --> 01:19:31,280
Speaker 1: about peace, right. There ain't a lot of questions about

1478
01:19:31,520 --> 01:19:34,599
Speaker 1: what would it take to de escalate this situation exact

1479
01:19:34,640 --> 01:19:37,920
Speaker 1: and how could we possibly do that? And are there

1480
01:19:38,040 --> 01:19:42,000
Speaker 1: other conflicts in the world that we've ignored that create this.

1481
01:19:42,479 --> 01:19:46,479
Speaker 1: It's all about the action. And I disagree slightly with

1482
01:19:46,520 --> 01:19:50,000
Speaker 1: the idea that they're dispassionate because I'll tell you, underneath

1483
01:19:50,040 --> 01:19:52,320
Speaker 1: it all, they know this is where careers are made.

1484
01:19:53,400 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 1: They know this is where careers are made. And that

1485
01:19:55,880 --> 01:19:58,000
Speaker 1: is so true. There is a lot to unpack here.

1486
01:19:58,040 --> 01:19:59,800
Speaker 1: First of all, I think it makes a good point

1487
01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:02,280
Speaker 1: about the early days of coverage versus as a story

1488
01:20:02,360 --> 01:20:05,719
Speaker 1: unfolds and partisan lines harden. It actually reminds me somewhat

1489
01:20:05,720 --> 01:20:07,599
Speaker 1: of the early days of COVID, before we had all

1490
01:20:07,600 --> 01:20:10,679
Speaker 1: these weird ideological views of mass and vaccines and certain

1491
01:20:10,760 --> 01:20:14,000
Speaker 1: treatments and lockdowns and the very seriousness of the disease itself.

1492
01:20:14,400 --> 01:20:17,479
Speaker 1: The COVID coverage before that time, in the very earlier days,

1493
01:20:17,560 --> 01:20:21,479
Speaker 1: it actually was better, one might even say useful. Sure,

1494
01:20:21,560 --> 01:20:23,519
Speaker 1: there were still all the same problems of cable news,

1495
01:20:23,560 --> 01:20:27,080
Speaker 1: the limitations of the format, the drive towards sensationalism and outrage.

1496
01:20:27,200 --> 01:20:29,479
Speaker 1: But this was a moment when the sheer level of

1497
01:20:29,560 --> 01:20:33,599
Speaker 1: resources and access probably made the product net beneficial at

1498
01:20:33,600 --> 01:20:35,000
Speaker 1: a time when we were all just trying to figure

1499
01:20:35,000 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 1: out what the hell was going on that phase, though,

1500
01:20:37,320 --> 01:20:39,639
Speaker 1: of course it did not last long. Now. I don't

1501
01:20:39,640 --> 01:20:42,120
Speaker 1: give cable news quite the same benefit of the doubt

1502
01:20:42,200 --> 01:20:44,599
Speaker 1: when it comes to war coverage, but in general all

1503
01:20:44,600 --> 01:20:48,320
Speaker 1: the point that any initial factual reporting quickly kurdles into

1504
01:20:48,400 --> 01:20:51,479
Speaker 1: partisan point scoring is very good one. John then makes

1505
01:20:51,520 --> 01:20:53,800
Speaker 1: an even more important point, which is that media not

1506
01:20:53,840 --> 01:20:56,320
Speaker 1: only wants to support the narratives that are convenient for

1507
01:20:56,360 --> 01:20:59,519
Speaker 1: their team. They also want to create outcomes that are

1508
01:20:59,560 --> 01:21:03,360
Speaker 1: good for their ratings, and that is very dangerous. John

1509
01:21:03,400 --> 01:21:05,799
Speaker 1: believes that this can be changed, that cable news denizens

1510
01:21:05,840 --> 01:21:09,280
Speaker 1: could simply make different choices and create better outcomes. This, sadly,

1511
01:21:09,439 --> 01:21:12,160
Speaker 1: in my opinion, is complete folly. There's a reason the

1512
01:21:12,160 --> 01:21:14,240
Speaker 1: product is what it is. They've got twenty four hours

1513
01:21:14,280 --> 01:21:17,120
Speaker 1: to fill. They've got corporate advertisers to attract, they've got

1514
01:21:17,120 --> 01:21:20,479
Speaker 1: politicians to flatter, they've got shareholders to enrich. It's not

1515
01:21:20,600 --> 01:21:23,080
Speaker 1: that most cable news hosts and producers simply don't care

1516
01:21:23,160 --> 01:21:25,720
Speaker 1: at all about the public good. It's just that it's

1517
01:21:25,760 --> 01:21:28,520
Speaker 1: maybe like nineteenth or twentieth on the list of priorities

1518
01:21:28,560 --> 01:21:31,599
Speaker 1: to consider when running their networks. This state of affairs

1519
01:21:31,640 --> 01:21:33,879
Speaker 1: does not have to be depressing, though. In his interviews,

1520
01:21:33,920 --> 01:21:36,479
Speaker 1: John continually asks his guests what can be done to

1521
01:21:36,520 --> 01:21:39,000
Speaker 1: improve the dismal state of media to make the product

1522
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:41,759
Speaker 1: worthy of trust. Whether it was Bob Iger of Disney

1523
01:21:41,840 --> 01:21:45,240
Speaker 1: or Margaret Sullivan of The Washington Post, they reluctantly acknowledged

1524
01:21:45,520 --> 01:21:49,040
Speaker 1: some of the problems, but they had absolutely no solutions.

1525
01:21:49,400 --> 01:21:52,120
Speaker 1: And that's because the answers are never going to come

1526
01:21:52,120 --> 01:21:55,360
Speaker 1: from the mainstream, profit driven corporate back to media. It's

1527
01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:58,600
Speaker 1: just not possible for them to admit their own failures.

1528
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:01,120
Speaker 1: But there's a much easier project that we could all

1529
01:22:01,160 --> 01:22:03,840
Speaker 1: sink our teeth into, and that is to make cable

1530
01:22:03,880 --> 01:22:08,960
Speaker 1: news completely irrelevant. These outlets are truly legacy products, relics

1531
01:22:08,960 --> 01:22:12,800
Speaker 1: from a bygone era, tempting with increasing desperation to hold

1532
01:22:12,840 --> 01:22:16,080
Speaker 1: onto their power and purchase with an increasingly distrusting populace.

1533
01:22:16,439 --> 01:22:19,200
Speaker 1: If they were to be stripped of their potency and

1534
01:22:19,360 --> 01:22:22,760
Speaker 1: relegated to the status of the trashy infotainment that they

1535
01:22:22,840 --> 01:22:26,479
Speaker 1: actually are, that would be an insanely positive step forward.

1536
01:22:27,040 --> 01:22:29,800
Speaker 1: Every single time you see stats that say public trust

1537
01:22:29,840 --> 01:22:32,160
Speaker 1: in cable news is at new historic lows that ought

1538
01:22:32,160 --> 01:22:34,800
Speaker 1: to lift your spirits, your heart's saying every time you

1539
01:22:34,840 --> 01:22:37,600
Speaker 1: see that ratings at Fox or MSNBC or CNN have

1540
01:22:37,680 --> 01:22:40,800
Speaker 1: fallen off a cliff. In fact, one of the absolute

1541
01:22:40,880 --> 01:22:43,280
Speaker 1: worst things that Trump did to this country was to

1542
01:22:43,400 --> 01:22:47,280
Speaker 1: rescue cable news from the dustbin of history, conferring tremendous

1543
01:22:47,360 --> 01:22:49,920
Speaker 1: ratings and rivers of cash to an industry that should

1544
01:22:49,920 --> 01:22:52,360
Speaker 1: have been allowed to continue its long, slow march to

1545
01:22:52,400 --> 01:22:56,519
Speaker 1: the grave uninterrupted. Because the truth is, the alternatives with

1546
01:22:56,840 --> 01:23:00,000
Speaker 1: actually useful and intelligent information that we would wish for

1547
01:23:00,160 --> 01:23:03,559
Speaker 1: our nation, they really already exist. We act like it's

1548
01:23:03,560 --> 01:23:06,439
Speaker 1: so impossible to create a media system with quality information.

1549
01:23:06,880 --> 01:23:09,880
Speaker 1: But as the Ukraine War has unfolded, I've been able

1550
01:23:09,880 --> 01:23:13,639
Speaker 1: to listen to historians and economists, military analysts, and long

1551
01:23:13,720 --> 01:23:17,080
Speaker 1: form laying out the relevant stakes, the relevant history, considering

1552
01:23:17,160 --> 01:23:19,720
Speaker 1: challenging issues with nuance, going and depth on matters of

1553
01:23:19,720 --> 01:23:24,200
Speaker 1: profound significance. These far more substantive, one might say, nutritious

1554
01:23:24,240 --> 01:23:28,280
Speaker 1: products often find significant audiences and truly do a service

1555
01:23:28,280 --> 01:23:30,919
Speaker 1: in helping us understand the world and gather more clarity

1556
01:23:31,080 --> 01:23:34,560
Speaker 1: about events as they are happening that should be celebrated,

1557
01:23:34,920 --> 01:23:37,599
Speaker 1: not erased or dismissed. You can, of course, do your

1558
01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:40,040
Speaker 1: part by supporting the independent creators who are doing this

1559
01:23:40,120 --> 01:23:42,320
Speaker 1: kind of work and those journalists who are actually chasing

1560
01:23:42,360 --> 01:23:44,960
Speaker 1: stories that hold power to account. But that is not

1561
01:23:45,160 --> 01:23:48,360
Speaker 1: enough cable news. It's got to be destroyed because as

1562
01:23:48,400 --> 01:23:50,639
Speaker 1: long as it's playing in the halls of Congress, as

1563
01:23:50,680 --> 01:23:53,679
Speaker 1: long as Ted Kruz, for example, is prepping as Scotus

1564
01:23:53,760 --> 01:23:56,040
Speaker 1: confirmation questions based on what is going to get him

1565
01:23:56,080 --> 01:23:59,320
Speaker 1: on Tucker that night. The tired and destructive cable news

1566
01:23:59,320 --> 01:24:04,040
Speaker 1: networks will set the elite agenda. Listen. Alternative media is imperfect.

1567
01:24:04,439 --> 01:24:06,800
Speaker 1: Lord knows there are plenty of Charlatans and grifters who

1568
01:24:06,840 --> 01:24:10,760
Speaker 1: are nakedly pursuing political agenda, committed to dehumanizing their opponents,

1569
01:24:11,040 --> 01:24:13,800
Speaker 1: actively selling on to corporate America. But I will take

1570
01:24:13,840 --> 01:24:16,880
Speaker 1: the breadth and scope and variety of the alternative media

1571
01:24:16,920 --> 01:24:21,200
Speaker 1: ecosystem every single day. Cable news has a stranglehold on

1572
01:24:21,280 --> 01:24:24,519
Speaker 1: elite political discourse, but it requires all of us to

1573
01:24:24,680 --> 01:24:27,760
Speaker 1: maintain its relevance. Let's starve it of oxygen and be

1574
01:24:27,840 --> 01:24:31,240
Speaker 1: part of elevating the truly beneficial media that is being

1575
01:24:31,320 --> 01:24:35,280
Speaker 1: created right now and which also already exists. I think

1576
01:24:35,320 --> 01:24:38,599
Speaker 1: this is appropriate given that CNN Plus is launching today

1577
01:24:38,960 --> 01:24:41,360
Speaker 1: today and if you want to hear my reaction to

1578
01:24:41,479 --> 01:24:48,360
Speaker 1: Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com.

1579
01:24:48,520 --> 01:24:50,799
Speaker 1: Joining us now. Great friend of the show. Kyle Conduct,

1580
01:24:50,840 --> 01:24:54,120
Speaker 1: managing editor over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, also author

1581
01:24:54,160 --> 01:24:56,200
Speaker 1: of a great book, Let's Put this up there on

1582
01:24:56,240 --> 01:24:59,599
Speaker 1: the screen, the long red thread how democratic dominance gave

1583
01:24:59,600 --> 01:25:02,840
Speaker 1: way to publican advantage in US House elections. We'll have

1584
01:25:02,840 --> 01:25:05,000
Speaker 1: a link to that in the description. Kyle, it's great

1585
01:25:05,040 --> 01:25:07,559
Speaker 1: to see you, my friend. Thanks for joining us, Thanks

1586
01:25:07,600 --> 01:25:10,080
Speaker 1: for having me absolutely so. Kyle. First of all, as

1587
01:25:10,080 --> 01:25:12,000
Speaker 1: we always do with you, let's just do a general

1588
01:25:12,080 --> 01:25:14,600
Speaker 1: check in mood of the country. The last thing that

1589
01:25:14,600 --> 01:25:17,200
Speaker 1: we heard from you was, well, the national environment is

1590
01:25:17,320 --> 01:25:20,360
Speaker 1: very bad for Democrats. It seems that that seems to

1591
01:25:20,640 --> 01:25:24,000
Speaker 1: relatively be the case. Any updates in your analysis of

1592
01:25:24,000 --> 01:25:27,120
Speaker 1: how things are very likely to go come November. I

1593
01:25:27,640 --> 01:25:29,519
Speaker 1: remember specifically when we last talked. I think maybe it

1594
01:25:29,520 --> 01:25:31,280
Speaker 1: was about a month and a half ago, But the

1595
01:25:31,360 --> 01:25:33,680
Speaker 1: numbers are basically the same as they were back then.

1596
01:25:34,400 --> 01:25:36,640
Speaker 1: That you know, Joe Biden's approval rating is in the

1597
01:25:36,680 --> 01:25:40,720
Speaker 1: low forties, disapproval a little over fifty. The you know,

1598
01:25:40,800 --> 01:25:43,400
Speaker 1: the House generic ballot, which asks folks whether they want

1599
01:25:43,400 --> 01:25:45,479
Speaker 1: to vote for a Democrat or Republican and their local

1600
01:25:45,479 --> 01:25:47,920
Speaker 1: House race. You know, it's relatively close. Republicans have a

1601
01:25:47,960 --> 01:25:51,120
Speaker 1: small advantage. But one little historical core of the generic

1602
01:25:51,160 --> 01:25:54,120
Speaker 1: ballot is that it often understates Republicans, which of course

1603
01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:56,639
Speaker 1: is sort of a kind of a problem in public

1604
01:25:56,680 --> 01:25:59,280
Speaker 1: opinion in more recent times, but over the longer stretch

1605
01:25:59,280 --> 01:26:03,120
Speaker 1: of history that ballot as routinely under estimated Republicans, and

1606
01:26:03,160 --> 01:26:05,519
Speaker 1: usually if Republicans take a big lead and the House

1607
01:26:05,560 --> 01:26:08,160
Speaker 1: generic ballot pulling, it doesn't show up until later in

1608
01:26:08,200 --> 01:26:10,320
Speaker 1: the cycle. So, you know, I feel pretty confident that

1609
01:26:10,360 --> 01:26:12,559
Speaker 1: the Republicans are leading right now in the generic ballot,

1610
01:26:12,560 --> 01:26:14,840
Speaker 1: and that you know, the electoral environment continues to be

1611
01:26:14,880 --> 01:26:18,200
Speaker 1: pretty challenging for Democrats. It's been pretty static for the

1612
01:26:18,320 --> 01:26:23,559
Speaker 1: last many months. So, Kyle, there is one state where

1613
01:26:23,600 --> 01:26:28,040
Speaker 1: Republicans are contemplating giving Democrats a gigantic gift, and that

1614
01:26:28,160 --> 01:26:31,519
Speaker 1: is the state of Missouri. We've been following this race

1615
01:26:31,680 --> 01:26:34,439
Speaker 1: fairly closely. This is an open seat and there is

1616
01:26:34,479 --> 01:26:40,280
Speaker 1: a robust primary on the Republican side. Previously, the top candidate,

1617
01:26:40,280 --> 01:26:43,000
Speaker 1: at least based on the polling, was former Governor Eric Brightens,

1618
01:26:43,200 --> 01:26:47,400
Speaker 1: who had resigned his governorship in disgrace after actually a

1619
01:26:47,479 --> 01:26:51,880
Speaker 1: series of corruption scandals and facing potential impeachment, but also

1620
01:26:52,120 --> 01:26:55,120
Speaker 1: for the revelation and allegations that he was having an

1621
01:26:55,120 --> 01:26:58,120
Speaker 1: affair with the hairs dresser, and even more significantly that

1622
01:26:58,240 --> 01:27:00,599
Speaker 1: he had blindfolded her and taken it picture of her

1623
01:27:00,720 --> 01:27:04,320
Speaker 1: to use as blackmail against her will. Now we have

1624
01:27:04,439 --> 01:27:07,640
Speaker 1: new allegations which have come out in a sworn affidavit

1625
01:27:07,680 --> 01:27:11,320
Speaker 1: from his ex wife that he was violent towards her

1626
01:27:11,760 --> 01:27:15,120
Speaker 1: and towards their son. There's a lot more there in

1627
01:27:15,200 --> 01:27:18,200
Speaker 1: terms of sort of psychological and mental abuse as well.

1628
01:27:18,479 --> 01:27:20,479
Speaker 1: And we in fact have a new poll out that

1629
01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:23,120
Speaker 1: shows Griton slipping from the lead. Here's the very latest.

1630
01:27:23,640 --> 01:27:26,200
Speaker 1: Now you have Eric Schmidt leaving the pack at twenty

1631
01:27:26,200 --> 01:27:28,960
Speaker 1: four percent, Britons in second at twenty one percent, and

1632
01:27:29,040 --> 01:27:32,000
Speaker 1: Vicky Hartzler, who's the choice of Josh Holly and some

1633
01:27:32,080 --> 01:27:35,960
Speaker 1: other elected Republicans at nineteen percent, So pretty close three

1634
01:27:36,000 --> 01:27:38,600
Speaker 1: way race there at the top. I mean, how do

1635
01:27:38,640 --> 01:27:40,320
Speaker 1: you evaluate this pole because on the one hand, you

1636
01:27:40,320 --> 01:27:42,000
Speaker 1: look at it and go, okay, well, Griton's you know,

1637
01:27:42,040 --> 01:27:44,920
Speaker 1: after those allegations, he's fallen out of the lead, but

1638
01:27:45,000 --> 01:27:46,960
Speaker 1: he's still pretty close in there. I mean, this may

1639
01:27:47,000 --> 01:27:49,960
Speaker 1: even still be within the poll's margin of error. Is

1640
01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:52,800
Speaker 1: it your expectation? How has it gone in previous races

1641
01:27:52,800 --> 01:27:55,640
Speaker 1: when you have a significant scandal like this, will the

1642
01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:59,040
Speaker 1: standing continue to erode over time or does this represent

1643
01:27:59,080 --> 01:28:03,439
Speaker 1: a kind of bottoming out potentially for Eric Brighton's You know,

1644
01:28:03,680 --> 01:28:05,920
Speaker 1: I think that if a scandal like this had happened

1645
01:28:05,960 --> 01:28:08,400
Speaker 1: ten twenty years ago, you'd say, well, Grightons is most

1646
01:28:08,479 --> 01:28:11,160
Speaker 1: certainly finished, right, And yet I think that that the

1647
01:28:11,680 --> 01:28:14,320
Speaker 1: I just don't feel comfortable saying that yet at this point,

1648
01:28:15,040 --> 01:28:18,559
Speaker 1: you know, even though there's this accumulation of really really

1649
01:28:18,560 --> 01:28:22,919
Speaker 1: horrible allegations against Britons, and you know, the former President

1650
01:28:22,960 --> 01:28:27,920
Speaker 1: Trump has sort of toyed with the idea of endorsing Britons. Now,

1651
01:28:27,960 --> 01:28:30,479
Speaker 1: Trump's endorsement is not you know, the silver bullet for

1652
01:28:30,520 --> 01:28:32,240
Speaker 1: these candidates. I think we've seen that there have been

1653
01:28:32,240 --> 01:28:35,600
Speaker 1: some Trump endorsed candidates recently who have been who have

1654
01:28:35,680 --> 01:28:38,160
Speaker 1: been struggling. But you know, he does seem to still

1655
01:28:38,200 --> 01:28:40,800
Speaker 1: be considering the possibility of doing that. Look, you have

1656
01:28:40,840 --> 01:28:44,120
Speaker 1: these large multi candidate fields. Brightons, of course, despite being disgraced,

1657
01:28:44,240 --> 01:28:46,519
Speaker 1: is a former governor, and so he does sort of

1658
01:28:46,560 --> 01:28:51,040
Speaker 1: have a kind of a built in name identification advantage,

1659
01:28:51,200 --> 01:28:53,439
Speaker 1: and you know, there's no run off, and so in

1660
01:28:53,479 --> 01:28:55,439
Speaker 1: a big multi candidate field, you know, you get twenty

1661
01:28:55,439 --> 01:28:57,040
Speaker 1: five thirty percent of the vote, that could be enough

1662
01:28:57,040 --> 01:28:59,120
Speaker 1: to win the nomination. I personally still think that if

1663
01:28:59,120 --> 01:29:02,240
Speaker 1: Briton's got nominated, he'd still win the general election, but

1664
01:29:03,040 --> 01:29:05,680
Speaker 1: it would be you know, a huge headache for National Republicans,

1665
01:29:05,680 --> 01:29:07,759
Speaker 1: who probably would have to spend on his behalf because

1666
01:29:07,760 --> 01:29:10,360
Speaker 1: he's such a would be such a weak, weaker candidate

1667
01:29:10,400 --> 01:29:12,800
Speaker 1: in the general election compared to other Republicans. And then

1668
01:29:12,800 --> 01:29:14,920
Speaker 1: of course if he wins, they'd have to deal with

1669
01:29:14,960 --> 01:29:17,240
Speaker 1: Britons in their caucus, which would be another headache for

1670
01:29:17,280 --> 01:29:20,800
Speaker 1: Republican Senate leadership. How would you handicap his odds? Though,

1671
01:29:20,840 --> 01:29:23,920
Speaker 1: because there was some pulling even before these latest scandals,

1672
01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:26,920
Speaker 1: it seemed kind of hopeful for some of the Democrats

1673
01:29:26,920 --> 01:29:29,200
Speaker 1: in the race. We've interviewed Lucas Kunzier, who has a

1674
01:29:29,200 --> 01:29:32,240
Speaker 1: good profile. He's a you know, military veteran. He's got

1675
01:29:32,280 --> 01:29:35,640
Speaker 1: a very populist sort of tone and plans for the

1676
01:29:35,680 --> 01:29:37,920
Speaker 1: state and for what he would do in the Senate.

1677
01:29:38,280 --> 01:29:40,680
Speaker 1: So do you think that if Briton's was the nominee,

1678
01:29:41,360 --> 01:29:43,640
Speaker 1: Missouri's very red state at this point? But do you

1679
01:29:43,640 --> 01:29:46,200
Speaker 1: think Democrats might have a shot at it? I think

1680
01:29:46,200 --> 01:29:48,000
Speaker 1: you'd at least have to keep the door cracked open

1681
01:29:48,000 --> 01:29:50,479
Speaker 1: and the possibility of a Democratic upset if Brighton's were

1682
01:29:50,520 --> 01:29:52,400
Speaker 1: the nominee, I wouldn't say that if there are any

1683
01:29:52,439 --> 01:29:55,840
Speaker 1: of these other candidates were, And so that's the fear

1684
01:29:55,840 --> 01:29:57,479
Speaker 1: for Republicans. They just don't want to have to deal

1685
01:29:57,520 --> 01:30:00,479
Speaker 1: with that when they otherwise have, you know, a lot

1686
01:30:00,479 --> 01:30:04,000
Speaker 1: of credible targets to try to win the Senate back

1687
01:30:04,120 --> 01:30:06,320
Speaker 1: in November. Kyle, one of the things we've been trying

1688
01:30:06,360 --> 01:30:08,920
Speaker 1: to look at is the Trump effect within all of this.

1689
01:30:09,000 --> 01:30:11,879
Speaker 1: You know, we've just had that rally down in Georgia

1690
01:30:12,000 --> 01:30:14,680
Speaker 1: where we see that Trump is one hundred percent fixated

1691
01:30:14,720 --> 01:30:17,360
Speaker 1: on stop the steel. Georgia voters don't appear to feel

1692
01:30:17,400 --> 01:30:20,280
Speaker 1: that way whenever it comes to Governor Kemp. Now he's

1693
01:30:20,280 --> 01:30:23,040
Speaker 1: had to unindorse Moe Brooks for departing from him on

1694
01:30:23,120 --> 01:30:25,559
Speaker 1: stop the steal. I mean, what do you think that

1695
01:30:25,640 --> 01:30:29,120
Speaker 1: the Trump effect of this stopped the steel obsession could

1696
01:30:29,160 --> 01:30:32,280
Speaker 1: have in terms of downward pressure on Republican chances in

1697
01:30:32,320 --> 01:30:36,800
Speaker 1: an already such favorable environment. Look, I mean I think

1698
01:30:36,800 --> 01:30:40,200
Speaker 1: that that, you know, the former president's fixation on this

1699
01:30:40,400 --> 01:30:44,639
Speaker 1: is probably not helpful in a broader sense, although frankly,

1700
01:30:45,240 --> 01:30:47,479
Speaker 1: I do wonder if there can be some sort of

1701
01:30:47,640 --> 01:30:51,120
Speaker 1: kind of perverse advantage about talking about this, because if

1702
01:30:51,280 --> 01:30:55,120
Speaker 1: Republicans writ large sort of feel aggrieved about twenty twenty,

1703
01:30:55,720 --> 01:30:57,920
Speaker 1: maybe that ends up being kind of a motivational tool

1704
01:30:57,960 --> 01:31:01,880
Speaker 1: for turnout in November. Now, it's wasn't in the Georgia

1705
01:31:01,960 --> 01:31:05,720
Speaker 1: Senate runoffs, you know, on January fifth, twenty twenty one.

1706
01:31:06,320 --> 01:31:09,040
Speaker 1: But then you get later in the in the election year,

1707
01:31:09,120 --> 01:31:11,200
Speaker 1: you know, twenty twenty one, and you see really awesome

1708
01:31:11,240 --> 01:31:14,519
Speaker 1: Republican turnout at place like Virginia, New Jersey. You know,

1709
01:31:14,600 --> 01:31:19,240
Speaker 1: midterms are often defined by, you know, which side has

1710
01:31:18,240 --> 01:31:22,120
Speaker 1: the sort of an enthusiasm advantage. Republicans clearly have that.

1711
01:31:22,160 --> 01:31:24,080
Speaker 1: And again I wonder if sort of the grievance of

1712
01:31:24,120 --> 01:31:27,600
Speaker 1: twenty twenty is part of that, even though Trump and

1713
01:31:27,720 --> 01:31:31,240
Speaker 1: his allies have produced really nothing in terms of credible

1714
01:31:31,280 --> 01:31:35,080
Speaker 1: evidence that they really were robbed in twenty twenty. But again,

1715
01:31:35,160 --> 01:31:39,719
Speaker 1: sometimes waving that waving the bloody shirt there can actually

1716
01:31:39,760 --> 01:31:42,680
Speaker 1: have some sort of motivational advantage. Now, it also seems like,

1717
01:31:42,760 --> 01:31:47,720
Speaker 1: though that Trump's endorsement himself is not necessarily enough to

1718
01:31:47,800 --> 01:31:50,200
Speaker 1: catapult some of these candidates. I mean, he was speaking

1719
01:31:50,760 --> 01:31:53,320
Speaker 1: the other day on behalf of David Perdue, the former

1720
01:31:53,520 --> 01:31:56,880
Speaker 1: Senator of Georgia, who's challenging Governor Brian Kemp, who Trump

1721
01:31:56,960 --> 01:31:59,320
Speaker 1: doesn't like in the Republican primary and Georgia. But Kemp

1722
01:31:59,320 --> 01:32:01,760
Speaker 1: seems like he's, you know, he's doing okay so far

1723
01:32:02,160 --> 01:32:05,000
Speaker 1: in that race. And Kemp has otherwise been a pretty

1724
01:32:05,040 --> 01:32:09,040
Speaker 1: loyal conservative Republican other than not indulging Trump on this.

1725
01:32:09,120 --> 01:32:11,800
Speaker 1: So it seems like there are, you know, some Trump

1726
01:32:11,840 --> 01:32:15,519
Speaker 1: critics in the party who may lose primaries. But Trump

1727
01:32:15,600 --> 01:32:17,519
Speaker 1: just sort of pointing to someone and saying, hey, you

1728
01:32:17,560 --> 01:32:20,720
Speaker 1: got to get vote this person out without necessarily other

1729
01:32:21,000 --> 01:32:23,600
Speaker 1: good reasons to vote that person out. Maybe that's not

1730
01:32:23,640 --> 01:32:26,680
Speaker 1: necessarily enough in the primary set. And is that a

1731
01:32:26,720 --> 01:32:30,439
Speaker 1: shift from previously, because yeah, we've talked about on this show,

1732
01:32:30,479 --> 01:32:35,120
Speaker 1: we talked about the Kemp Purdue dynamic in Georgia. Mobrooks

1733
01:32:35,360 --> 01:32:38,680
Speaker 1: was Trump's candidate in Alabama and then he's losing, so

1734
01:32:38,720 --> 01:32:41,760
Speaker 1: Trump decides to unindorse him. Oh, it's because he wasn't

1735
01:32:41,760 --> 01:32:44,880
Speaker 1: sufficiently pro sedoup the steal. I believe it's candidate in

1736
01:32:44,920 --> 01:32:49,120
Speaker 1: North Carolina is also not faring particularly well at this point.

1737
01:32:49,439 --> 01:32:52,759
Speaker 1: So is that a different dynamic than did Trump's endorsement

1738
01:32:52,800 --> 01:32:55,800
Speaker 1: seem to hold more sway at other times than these primaries.

1739
01:32:57,600 --> 01:33:01,479
Speaker 1: You know, look, Trump's Trump's endorsement record was never perfect,

1740
01:33:01,520 --> 01:33:03,280
Speaker 1: you know, part of the I mean we talk about,

1741
01:33:03,280 --> 01:33:06,120
Speaker 1: you know, potentially bad Republican Senate nominee's. A great example

1742
01:33:06,160 --> 01:33:08,559
Speaker 1: of that is Roy Moore, who kicked away a Senate

1743
01:33:08,560 --> 01:33:11,120
Speaker 1: seat in Alabama for you know, for a couple of

1744
01:33:11,160 --> 01:33:14,320
Speaker 1: years a few years ago. And and you know, more

1745
01:33:14,439 --> 01:33:18,600
Speaker 1: one over a Trump endorsed candidate in that in that

1746
01:33:18,760 --> 01:33:21,879
Speaker 1: in that primary, Luther Strange, who was the appointed senator.

1747
01:33:22,360 --> 01:33:24,479
Speaker 1: That's sort of a high profile example of a Trump

1748
01:33:24,560 --> 01:33:26,400
Speaker 1: endoor seat not working out. And I think a lot

1749
01:33:26,400 --> 01:33:29,479
Speaker 1: of other Trump and doors He's have worked out. But

1750
01:33:29,600 --> 01:33:31,160
Speaker 1: you know, I think we sometimes look at his record

1751
01:33:31,200 --> 01:33:33,720
Speaker 1: again as being perfect, and it certainly isn't. And you know,

1752
01:33:33,760 --> 01:33:36,479
Speaker 1: he is probably going to take some more losses here

1753
01:33:37,120 --> 01:33:39,760
Speaker 1: in the primary season. I mean, again, he rescinded his

1754
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:42,439
Speaker 1: endorsement of mo Brooks, but you know, he did, he

1755
01:33:42,479 --> 01:33:44,200
Speaker 1: did support him, and that didn't you know, that didn't

1756
01:33:44,760 --> 01:33:47,799
Speaker 1: allow Brooks to you know, to take command of that field,

1757
01:33:47,880 --> 01:33:50,760
Speaker 1: and you know, Trump is also handing out endorsements left

1758
01:33:50,760 --> 01:33:53,080
Speaker 1: and right, or at least he had been, And when

1759
01:33:53,080 --> 01:33:54,920
Speaker 1: you do that, you know, you open yourself up to

1760
01:33:54,920 --> 01:33:57,240
Speaker 1: the possibility of of some of those folks not getting

1761
01:33:57,280 --> 01:33:59,280
Speaker 1: over the finish line. It seems likely to be the

1762
01:33:59,320 --> 01:34:02,920
Speaker 1: case in the sporting Yeah. Well, it's been really great

1763
01:34:02,920 --> 01:34:05,840
Speaker 1: talking to Kyle on this, looking at your analysis, I mean,

1764
01:34:06,000 --> 01:34:09,639
Speaker 1: any closing thoughts in terms of how things might change

1765
01:34:09,880 --> 01:34:12,200
Speaker 1: in the future. What would people want to look for

1766
01:34:12,479 --> 01:34:14,280
Speaker 1: if there was going to be some change up in

1767
01:34:14,320 --> 01:34:17,439
Speaker 1: your prognosis of the elections. You know, again it's Bidens

1768
01:34:17,439 --> 01:34:19,280
Speaker 1: approval rating. You know, do we see some sort of

1769
01:34:19,360 --> 01:34:21,719
Speaker 1: level of improvement? Again, I'd say that by and large

1770
01:34:21,720 --> 01:34:23,400
Speaker 1: we really haven't. He didn't really get much of a

1771
01:34:23,439 --> 01:34:26,240
Speaker 1: bounce from the State of Union or from you know,

1772
01:34:26,360 --> 01:34:30,920
Speaker 1: the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You know,

1773
01:34:30,960 --> 01:34:33,400
Speaker 1: I also think that the one way that you know,

1774
01:34:33,439 --> 01:34:36,200
Speaker 1: Republicans could potentially screw up this political environment, at least

1775
01:34:36,200 --> 01:34:39,719
Speaker 1: in the Senate is the nomination of weak candidates. And again,

1776
01:34:39,760 --> 01:34:42,000
Speaker 1: Brightens is a good one to watch in Missouri, but

1777
01:34:42,000 --> 01:34:45,000
Speaker 1: there are several others. Yeah. Well, it also brings to

1778
01:34:45,000 --> 01:34:47,800
Speaker 1: mind another Missouri candidate from back in the day, Todd Ache,

1779
01:34:47,840 --> 01:34:50,519
Speaker 1: and that Democrats actually kind of put their thumb on

1780
01:34:50,520 --> 01:34:52,519
Speaker 1: the scale, ran some ads to try to get him

1781
01:34:52,520 --> 01:34:55,120
Speaker 1: as the nominee. Hands up the nominee and Claire mccaskal

1782
01:34:55,200 --> 01:34:57,400
Speaker 1: is able to hold on, even though it looked very

1783
01:34:57,439 --> 01:34:59,920
Speaker 1: much like her political doom was sealed at that point.

1784
01:35:00,040 --> 01:35:02,600
Speaker 1: So you just never know. Kyle is always great to

1785
01:35:02,600 --> 01:35:04,320
Speaker 1: have your analysis. Thank you, my friend. Great to see you.

1786
01:35:04,320 --> 01:35:08,040
Speaker 1: Good to see you. Man, our pleasure. Thank you guys

1787
01:35:08,040 --> 01:35:10,320
Speaker 1: so much for watching. We really appreciate it. As always,

1788
01:35:10,600 --> 01:35:12,360
Speaker 1: it's a fun time in order to try and do

1789
01:35:12,439 --> 01:35:14,880
Speaker 1: the news. We mentioned yesterday about how you have to

1790
01:35:15,000 --> 01:35:18,120
Speaker 1: dance around these Trump comments to make sure your channel

1791
01:35:18,320 --> 01:35:20,240
Speaker 1: doesn't get taken down. Look, you guys are the only

1792
01:35:20,240 --> 01:35:22,280
Speaker 1: ones that we can rely on at this time. Things

1793
01:35:22,320 --> 01:35:25,240
Speaker 1: are really heating up in terms of the censorious environment.

1794
01:35:25,520 --> 01:35:27,800
Speaker 1: We're going to be talking over the weekend about Chris

1795
01:35:27,800 --> 01:35:30,760
Speaker 1: Hedges and what happened to him. This is insane. I mean,

1796
01:35:30,760 --> 01:35:34,160
Speaker 1: the man's entire catalog is removed within a span of

1797
01:35:34,240 --> 01:35:37,559
Speaker 1: minutes and he's been canceled, you know from contemporary discourse.

1798
01:35:37,600 --> 01:35:40,320
Speaker 1: Ask yourself if that can happen to a Pulitzer Prize

1799
01:35:40,320 --> 01:35:42,680
Speaker 1: winning journalist, that can happen to any of us. So

1800
01:35:42,800 --> 01:35:44,840
Speaker 1: thank you all for your support. It's what keeps us

1801
01:35:44,840 --> 01:35:46,760
Speaker 1: going and it gives us the lack of fear in

1802
01:35:46,880 --> 01:35:49,360
Speaker 1: order to produce the news exactly the way that we

1803
01:35:49,400 --> 01:35:51,080
Speaker 1: think it should be. And we thank you all so

1804
01:35:51,160 --> 01:35:53,400
Speaker 1: much for your support and for watching us. Love you guys,

1805
01:35:53,439 --> 01:35:55,400
Speaker 1: have a wonderful day. We'll have some great content for

1806
01:35:55,439 --> 01:35:57,160
Speaker 1: you tomorrow and we'll be back with a full show

1807
01:35:57,200 --> 01:36:11,960
Speaker 1: on Thursday. See you then,