WEBVTT - Is Crypto's Market Value Real?

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily Bloomberg I heard podcast

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm Stacy Marie Ishmel, managing editor of Crypto for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. It's Wednesday, September one. This crypto winter is

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<v Speaker 1>still blowing cold and it's not clear when, or even if,

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<v Speaker 1>a so called spring will arrive and stick around. It's

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<v Speaker 1>also evident that crypto has been hit very hard. Another

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<v Speaker 1>bad week for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has continued to slump,

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<v Speaker 1>and it could be a precursor of more pain to come,

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<v Speaker 1>according to some strategists watching the sell off. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>a really interesting gauge because when you put it alongside

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Gaxy Crypto Index, you can see that kind

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<v Speaker 1>of symmetry in the way they've moved. Where do we

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<v Speaker 1>go from here? These losses have affected the entire CRYPTO ECOSYSTEM,

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<v Speaker 1>from hedge funds to lenders to countless individual crypto investors.

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<v Speaker 1>By most calculations, two trillion dollars worth of value, that's

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<v Speaker 1>trillion with it he has been wiped off of this market.

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<v Speaker 1>It's estimated that before the winter, the total market value

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<v Speaker 1>of crypto assets worldwide stood around three trillion dollars. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a sizeable chunk. But how is this figure market value

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<v Speaker 1>calculated and how representative, if at all, is it, of

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<v Speaker 1>Crypto's actual economic value? On today's show I'll talk to

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg reporter of Aldana Harrick. If you were going by

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<v Speaker 1>the market cap figure, it was three chillion back in

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<v Speaker 1>the fall of about this increasingly disputed metric. Lanna, you've

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<v Speaker 1>been writing, along with all the other markets that you cover,

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit about crypto and specifically around the ways

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<v Speaker 1>in which people try to assess CRYPTO's value. Yeah, this

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<v Speaker 1>this is an interesting rabbit hole that we went very

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<v Speaker 1>deep into thanks to one of my editors at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week who had been thinking. He loves to think

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<v Speaker 1>about these big, Grand Meta ideas, and he had been

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<v Speaker 1>wondering about cryptocurrency market cap because it's something that we

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<v Speaker 1>quote so very frequently. So if you remember back last year,

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<v Speaker 1>when crypto prices were at, hovering around their all time highs,

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<v Speaker 1>what a lot of people were saying at the time

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<v Speaker 1>is that the crypto market value was around three chillion dollars. However,

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted to know if that actually was a very

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<v Speaker 1>good representation for, you know, what the crypto market is

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<v Speaker 1>actually worth. And if you think about what market cap is,

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<v Speaker 1>market cap is just the number of coins that are

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<v Speaker 1>out there, multiple by the last price. And but there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of coins and there's a lot of very

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<v Speaker 1>fraudulent projects out there and lots of coins that maybe

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<v Speaker 1>have gone so called dormant, where they haven't moved or

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<v Speaker 1>haven't been used in five or more years sometimes. And

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<v Speaker 1>so do you want to be including that in your

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<v Speaker 1>calculation or not? There's just there were a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>little factors at play and so we really wanted to see, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>if is it three chillion, and if it's not three chillion,

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<v Speaker 1>what might it be? So what is it? Well, the

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<v Speaker 1>first thing I did was I wanted to get a

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<v Speaker 1>sense of how many people actually use cryptocurrencies. I looked

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<v Speaker 1>at the US, because it's very, very difficult to get

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<v Speaker 1>global data for something like this, but they were actually

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<v Speaker 1>two very useful surveys out. One was from the Fed

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<v Speaker 1>that said something like twelve of US adults use or

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<v Speaker 1>interact or trade cryptocurrencies and another bipus at six percent,

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<v Speaker 1>and so that's something like fifty three million people, which

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<v Speaker 1>really isn't insignificant. And so that was the very first

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<v Speaker 1>step I took, just in trying to figure out, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>how many people actually were interacting or knowing about Crypto,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in the US, especially at the highest last year,

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<v Speaker 1>and from there, where did the rabbit hole take you?

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<v Speaker 1>Then I talked to a crypto skeptic and I knew

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<v Speaker 1>he was a crypto skeptic. It was David Gerard he

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<v Speaker 1>he tweets a lot about Crypto, he has his own

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<v Speaker 1>blog and he writes a lot about crypto and I

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<v Speaker 1>just wanted to pose to him the question is market

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<v Speaker 1>cap actually a good way of measuring crypto market value?

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<v Speaker 1>And immediately he said No. He used a curse word

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<v Speaker 1>which we won't repeat, but he said it's basically just

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<v Speaker 1>all made up numbers and he cited some of the

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<v Speaker 1>things we were just talking about, including that there's just

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of projects out there are coins that are

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<v Speaker 1>floating around out there that you might not want to

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<v Speaker 1>be including in your calculation. What did he suggested? Stud

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<v Speaker 1>he actually suggested that I look at flows into and

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<v Speaker 1>out of exchanges, which is very difficult to do because

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<v Speaker 1>the exchanges have to share information with the changes love

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<v Speaker 1>to share information with journalists. Yeah, they love it no. So.

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<v Speaker 1>So basically, he after he told me that, I call

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of other researchers, some actually at the Cleveland Fed,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of them was like no, this will be impossible.

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<v Speaker 1>So it was not. It was not a good start

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<v Speaker 1>at first, just finding out that okay, crypto market CAPP

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<v Speaker 1>maybe is not a good way to be measuring the market,

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<v Speaker 1>and then also to just sort of hit this dead end.

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<v Speaker 1>But I continue talking to people. So, before we go

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<v Speaker 1>into the ways in which you avoided the Dead End,

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<v Speaker 1>are there folks out there you know? Because like, skeptics

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<v Speaker 1>going to skeptic and booster is going to boost. So

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<v Speaker 1>who are the folks in the middle who are like, well,

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<v Speaker 1>here are other ways, you know, not just the data

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<v Speaker 1>from exchanges. What were some of the other ways that

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<v Speaker 1>folks might have suggested made sense in this assessment that

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<v Speaker 1>you were trying to do? So this is why I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to talk specifically with crypto researchers or even there's

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<v Speaker 1>crypto economists. So I wanted to talk to companies that

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<v Speaker 1>I knew sift through data. Our track data really well.

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<v Speaker 1>I talked to somebody at Genesis and she had told

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<v Speaker 1>me to look at something called free float, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the number of coins in circulation, but you actually subtract

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<v Speaker 1>out like foundations and nonprofit groups, and that sort of

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<v Speaker 1>gives you you know, she said market cap actually isn't

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<v Speaker 1>such a bad way of looking at things because it

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<v Speaker 1>helps you account for speculation and speculative froth. But that reading,

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<v Speaker 1>this free float reading, gave us a reading of seven

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<v Speaker 1>and eighties seven billion, so very different from three trillion.

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<v Speaker 1>And I mean, of course, at the time that you

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<v Speaker 1>started doing this. So when you know the story published

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<v Speaker 1>the markets itself by that market cap value declined a

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<v Speaker 1>lot because the prices were falling. It's all so evident

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<v Speaker 1>that crypto has been hit very hard since its peak

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<v Speaker 1>in November. It has lost forty of its value, wiping

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<v Speaker 1>out more than five hundred seventy billion dollars. Overall. The

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<v Speaker 1>crypto market has lost nearly two trillion dollars in market

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<v Speaker 1>value since last November. So were you comparing the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of closer to one trillion value to that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>just under eight hundred billion, like what were the what

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<v Speaker 1>were the apples and apples comparisons? The market did decline

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<v Speaker 1>quite a bit from those highs that we reached back

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<v Speaker 1>in November. So if you were going by the market

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<v Speaker 1>cap figure, it was three trillion back in the fall

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<v Speaker 1>of much closer to one trillion now. So we were

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<v Speaker 1>really trying to compare to numbers that you would have

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<v Speaker 1>seen at the peak. That number, that free float number,

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<v Speaker 1>was actually compared to that three trillion. So it was

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<v Speaker 1>like this was the free float at the time when

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin was hitting. Yeah, and for the most part, because

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<v Speaker 1>I ended up talking to a bunch of other people

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<v Speaker 1>who have been Gav me other readings to look at,

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<v Speaker 1>they also were giving me numbers of their specific readings

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<v Speaker 1>for the peak back in and maybe what those numbers

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<v Speaker 1>look like now. And actually some of these readings, the

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<v Speaker 1>free float and some some of these other ones that

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure we'll go into next, they all were hovering

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<v Speaker 1>around eight hundred billion or so, and so the readings themselves,

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<v Speaker 1>the free float or realized value, is another one that

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<v Speaker 1>I looked at. They don't fall as dramatically as prices

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<v Speaker 1>or the market cap figure because they're already discounting the

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<v Speaker 1>froth or the speculation. Interesting. So just to recap what

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<v Speaker 1>you're saying, there's this kind of big headline number that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of folks including US here. A bluemerket paid

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<v Speaker 1>attention to, which is, you know, the bitcoin's peak, at

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<v Speaker 1>Crypto's peak. You're looking at a three trillion dollar market.

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<v Speaker 1>What you're saying is that various other metrics are somewhere

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<v Speaker 1>closer to an eight hundred billion ish number in that

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<v Speaker 1>same period when everything was, you know, maximum froth, as

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<v Speaker 1>it were. What explains the difference between those metrics and

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<v Speaker 1>that three trillion? Is it mostly that speculative activity, or

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<v Speaker 1>are there other factors involved? I think for the most

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<v Speaker 1>part we were just trying to account for the speculative

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<v Speaker 1>activity or the froth or the number of loans or

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<v Speaker 1>the leverage that was out in the system. So they

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<v Speaker 1>realized value figure. That's another one we looked at. That

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<v Speaker 1>one actually came up the most out of all the

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<v Speaker 1>people I spoke with. It just kept coming back again

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<v Speaker 1>and again. Vildana, what is the realized value? Okay, so

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<v Speaker 1>realized value it's the prices the coins actually fetch in

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<v Speaker 1>their most recent transaction versus market value, which is the

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<v Speaker 1>sum of the value of stuff that's out there, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I suppose it's just a better way to be

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about. Okay, what price a coin might fetch, so

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<v Speaker 1>to say. So it's the last bid exactly effectively, exactly

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<v Speaker 1>for realized value. I spoke with somebody at glass node

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<v Speaker 1>and glass node is pretty well known in the Crypto

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<v Speaker 1>community because they track so much data on this ratio

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<v Speaker 1>that they have, is called M v R V. It's

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<v Speaker 1>market value versus realized value. That ratio in November of

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<v Speaker 1>at the peak of crypto prices, hit three point two,

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<v Speaker 1>which means that the market value was three times the

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<v Speaker 1>realized value exactly. So you take the three trillion, you're

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<v Speaker 1>divided by three point two and you get a reading

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<v Speaker 1>around eight hundred seventy five. Obviously it's gonna these numbers

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<v Speaker 1>are going to to vary, but you get a reading

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<v Speaker 1>around eight hundred seventy eight hundred eighty billion, and that

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<v Speaker 1>number also just doesn't change as much as the market

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<v Speaker 1>cap figure would, where you're including all the price that

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<v Speaker 1>clients for their different coins. I want to make a

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<v Speaker 1>Qui note when we when we talk about market cap,

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<v Speaker 1>because I have had some o g markets editors and also,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, people on the Internet, points out that capitalization

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<v Speaker 1>is a concept that historically really works best when you're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about companies with, you know, shares and like floats

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<v Speaker 1>and is a little bit less robust when analogized to

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<v Speaker 1>something like token prices. Do you think it's like a

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<v Speaker 1>big deal? I mean when folks get you know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>in an industry in which there's a lot of jargon,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of nomenclature, there's a lot of obsession

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<v Speaker 1>about this is the one true metric. Is there really

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<v Speaker 1>a one true metric or one true way of describing

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<v Speaker 1>everything that's happening on do folks need to just get

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<v Speaker 1>comfortable with nuance? I think we were trying to break

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<v Speaker 1>the idea that there is this one true metric, because

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<v Speaker 1>the market cap figure really is something that you just

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<v Speaker 1>kept seeing over and over. I remember making news when

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<v Speaker 1>the overall crypto market cap reached to trilling. Well, first

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<v Speaker 1>one trillion and to trill and then neared three trillion

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of last year, and so I think

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<v Speaker 1>we really wanted to just dispel the notion that you

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<v Speaker 1>should just be using this one measure when really there's

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of as we point out in the story,

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<v Speaker 1>different ways to try to show the true the so

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<v Speaker 1>called true value of Crypto. We'll be right back with

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<v Speaker 1>more from Villa Donna about the methodology for calculating crypto

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<v Speaker 1>market value, even if crypto does have a ton of potential.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, what are those folks, the most optimistic among them, like,

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<v Speaker 1>what are they expecting it to get to? That, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>depends largely on how the market is moving. So last

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<v Speaker 1>year one, and also in two, one, prices for skyrocketing.

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<v Speaker 1>You had a lot of price targets for big one

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<v Speaker 1>in particular, that we're genormous. I think that's the best

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<v Speaker 1>or or higher. I think there were some that were

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred fifty thou so. So when when prices are

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<v Speaker 1>rising and you have people just really excited and they're

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<v Speaker 1>in this mindset of okay, things are just going to continue,

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<v Speaker 1>like look at what we've done over the last two

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<v Speaker 1>years alone, it's going to continue going this way, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's when you have people obviously most bullish and

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<v Speaker 1>they're expecting the market to just grow and grow and grow.

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<v Speaker 1>It's very different this year. Prices aren't doing as well,

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<v Speaker 1>so people have been sort of more restrained. More restrained,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't really hear so many price targets, but or

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<v Speaker 1>you don't hear about as you don't have as many

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<v Speaker 1>people coming out with notes or research saying okay, this

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<v Speaker 1>is a good price target for a bitcoin to reach,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's it's it's hard. I think a lot of

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:57.480
<v Speaker 1>people make the comparison to the gold market, where gold

0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.840
<v Speaker 1>has been around for I don't even know how long,

0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 1>forever maybe, and that market, its Cryptos, is sometimes thought

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 1>of as digital, digital gold. Yes, exactly. So you're having

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.600
<v Speaker 1>these comparisons between the two where you have people saying, okay,

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:16.160
<v Speaker 1>it might overtake that market at some point, but really

0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 1>it's I think it just depends on how the market

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 1>ebbs in Waynes, which is to your earlier point, kind

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.520
<v Speaker 1>of the challenge with a metric like market value, right,

0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.520
<v Speaker 1>and that it so much sentiment is wrapped up in

0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 1>what that number is and what it means to people. Uh,

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a phrase that various folks, including sometimes

0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.240
<v Speaker 1>reports is, like to use about like well, what's an

0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:39.640
<v Speaker 1>objective measure, as if there is some source of emagic

0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 1>number that is removed from any kind of prejudice or

0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 1>bias Um that exists. But it does sound to me

0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:50.200
<v Speaker 1>like what you're saying is there is fairly broad spread consensus,

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 1>at least among certain types of academics, researches, etcetera, that

0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:58.400
<v Speaker 1>this idea of realized value is a helpful if if

0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 1>folks wanted to get really attached to an Tkato, that's

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.480
<v Speaker 1>the one they would recommend. Yeah, it really did keep

0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.840
<v Speaker 1>coming up again and again. I talked to a researcher

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>at UBS, I talked to glass node, I talked to

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 1>chain analysis, which is sort of like forensic crypto company,

0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 1>and all of these companies they're tracking data, they're looking

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 1>at all these different charts. So the people I spoke with,

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 1>they all kept bringing up realized value. You do hear

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 1>it a lot in the crypto space. You do hear

0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 1>about this measure. It's just it's not something that's as

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 1>mainstream as mark, as crypto market cap, but I do

0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.240
<v Speaker 1>think that it's a solid way to be looking at things.

0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:40.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean there's a literal website called coin market cap

0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.120
<v Speaker 1>dot COM, yeah, which is quote it quite a bit

0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:47.040
<v Speaker 1>from it and that's, you know, that's often the place

0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 1>that people anchor around. So you know, if I, if

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:50.840
<v Speaker 1>I fire up a web browser right now and I

0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>go to there, it's it's like very it's it's the name.

0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 1>It also says, Hey, here's like today's market Cap, twenty

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.920
<v Speaker 1>four volume, today's cryptocurrency prices by market cap. What would

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 1>take for realized value? Dot Com, should we started? Well,

0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:12.320
<v Speaker 1>I think the if you're into crypto and your crypto

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>investor and you do have this belief that prices will

0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:18.000
<v Speaker 1>recover from from what's been going on this year and

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 1>you know for alternative they'll keep going higher and they'll

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.520
<v Speaker 1>replace the dollar or whatever, or the goal, the gold

0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 1>market or whatever else, then I think the idea of

0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.680
<v Speaker 1>being able to say three trillion is just much more

0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:35.200
<v Speaker 1>allerting than saying the realized value is billion. It's just

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 1>it's obviously a much bigger figure. It grabs people's attention.

0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.840
<v Speaker 1>So maybe realized value won't become a commonplace, mainstream thing,

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.040
<v Speaker 1>only because I think people want to use the bigger number,

0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.120
<v Speaker 1>the one that includes all the froth, the one with

0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 1>the TA, the one with the T. Yeah, even if

0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:55.720
<v Speaker 1>it's not yet quadrillion. Yeah, it may never be. We'll see,

0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 1>but I can easily spend it. On that note, thank

0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:01.600
<v Speaker 1>you for Don always a pleasure to have you. Thanks

0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:06.919
<v Speaker 1>for having me. You can find more of Bill Donna's

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 1>reporting on the Bloomberg terminal on Bloomberg Dot Com or

0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 1>follow her on twitter. She's at Vil Donna Harrick. That

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.560
<v Speaker 1>is v I L D A N E H A

0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:23.359
<v Speaker 1>J R. I C on the next episode of Bloomberg Crypto,

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:27.800
<v Speaker 1>the merge. It's finally over, it's done, it happened, so

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:31.080
<v Speaker 1>now we're gonna ask what's next, and you'll hear words

0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:36.280
<v Speaker 1>like splurge, purge, purge, all things that rhyme with emerge

0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:43.080
<v Speaker 1>and that will soon follow. This is Bloomberg Crypto, a

0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:46.560
<v Speaker 1>daily podcast from Bloomberg and I heart radio. For more

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0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.480
<v Speaker 1>your comments, questions or suggestions for the show to Crypto

0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.680
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg Dot net or find us on twitter. We're

0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:05.359
<v Speaker 1>at CRYPTO. The supervising producer of Bloomberg Crypto is Vicky Verklina.

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:09.280
<v Speaker 1>Our senior producer is Janet Babin. Our producers are Mohammed

0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.879
<v Speaker 1>Farup and Sharon Barriro. Our associate producers are ty Butler

0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:16.080
<v Speaker 1>and Moses on them. Desta wonder at is our engineer.

0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:21.880
<v Speaker 1>Original Music by Leo Sidran. I'm Stacy Marie Schmall we'll

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:22.560
<v Speaker 1>be back tomorrow.