1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily Bloomberg I heard podcast 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: and I'm Stacy Marie Ishmel, managing editor of Crypto for 3 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. It's Wednesday, September one. This crypto winter is 4 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: still blowing cold and it's not clear when, or even if, 5 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: a so called spring will arrive and stick around. It's 6 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: also evident that crypto has been hit very hard. Another 7 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: bad week for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has continued to slump, 8 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: and it could be a precursor of more pain to come, 9 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: according to some strategists watching the sell off. And it's 10 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: a really interesting gauge because when you put it alongside 11 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,319 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Gaxy Crypto Index, you can see that kind 12 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: of symmetry in the way they've moved. Where do we 13 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: go from here? These losses have affected the entire CRYPTO ECOSYSTEM, 14 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 1: from hedge funds to lenders to countless individual crypto investors. 15 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: By most calculations, two trillion dollars worth of value, that's 16 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: trillion with it he has been wiped off of this market. 17 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 1: It's estimated that before the winter, the total market value 18 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 1: of crypto assets worldwide stood around three trillion dollars. That's 19 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: a sizeable chunk. But how is this figure market value 20 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 1: calculated and how representative, if at all, is it, of 21 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: Crypto's actual economic value? On today's show I'll talk to 22 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg reporter of Aldana Harrick. If you were going by 23 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: the market cap figure, it was three chillion back in 24 00:01:44,920 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: the fall of about this increasingly disputed metric. Lanna, you've 25 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: been writing, along with all the other markets that you cover, 26 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: a little bit about crypto and specifically around the ways 27 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 1: in which people try to assess CRYPTO's value. Yeah, this 28 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 1: this is an interesting rabbit hole that we went very 29 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: deep into thanks to one of my editors at Bloomberg 30 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: Business Week who had been thinking. He loves to think 31 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: about these big, Grand Meta ideas, and he had been 32 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: wondering about cryptocurrency market cap because it's something that we 33 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: quote so very frequently. So if you remember back last year, 34 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: when crypto prices were at, hovering around their all time highs, 35 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: what a lot of people were saying at the time 36 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: is that the crypto market value was around three chillion dollars. However, 37 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 1: we wanted to know if that actually was a very 38 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 1: good representation for, you know, what the crypto market is 39 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: actually worth. And if you think about what market cap is, 40 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: market cap is just the number of coins that are 41 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 1: out there, multiple by the last price. And but there's 42 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: a lot of coins and there's a lot of very 43 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: fraudulent projects out there and lots of coins that maybe 44 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: have gone so called dormant, where they haven't moved or 45 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: haven't been used in five or more years sometimes. And 46 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: so do you want to be including that in your 47 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: calculation or not? There's just there were a lot of 48 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: little factors at play and so we really wanted to see, okay, 49 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 1: if is it three chillion, and if it's not three chillion, 50 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: what might it be? So what is it? Well, the 51 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: first thing I did was I wanted to get a 52 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: sense of how many people actually use cryptocurrencies. I looked 53 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: at the US, because it's very, very difficult to get 54 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: global data for something like this, but they were actually 55 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: two very useful surveys out. One was from the Fed 56 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: that said something like twelve of US adults use or 57 00:03:55,840 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: interact or trade cryptocurrencies and another bipus at six percent, 58 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: and so that's something like fifty three million people, which 59 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: really isn't insignificant. And so that was the very first 60 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: step I took, just in trying to figure out, okay, 61 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: how many people actually were interacting or knowing about Crypto, 62 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: especially in the US, especially at the highest last year, 63 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: and from there, where did the rabbit hole take you? 64 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: Then I talked to a crypto skeptic and I knew 65 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: he was a crypto skeptic. It was David Gerard he 66 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: he tweets a lot about Crypto, he has his own 67 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: blog and he writes a lot about crypto and I 68 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: just wanted to pose to him the question is market 69 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: cap actually a good way of measuring crypto market value? 70 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: And immediately he said No. He used a curse word 71 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: which we won't repeat, but he said it's basically just 72 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: all made up numbers and he cited some of the 73 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 1: things we were just talking about, including that there's just 74 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: a lot of projects out there are coins that are 75 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: floating around out there that you might not want to 76 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: be including in your calculation. What did he suggested? Stud 77 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: he actually suggested that I look at flows into and 78 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: out of exchanges, which is very difficult to do because 79 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: the exchanges have to share information with the changes love 80 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: to share information with journalists. Yeah, they love it no. So. 81 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: So basically, he after he told me that, I call 82 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: a bunch of other researchers, some actually at the Cleveland Fed, 83 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 1: and one of them was like no, this will be impossible. 84 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: So it was not. It was not a good start 85 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: at first, just finding out that okay, crypto market CAPP 86 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: maybe is not a good way to be measuring the market, 87 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: and then also to just sort of hit this dead end. 88 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: But I continue talking to people. So, before we go 89 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: into the ways in which you avoided the Dead End, 90 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: are there folks out there you know? Because like, skeptics 91 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: going to skeptic and booster is going to boost. So 92 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 1: who are the folks in the middle who are like, well, 93 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 1: here are other ways, you know, not just the data 94 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: from exchanges. What were some of the other ways that 95 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: folks might have suggested made sense in this assessment that 96 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: you were trying to do? So this is why I 97 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: wanted to talk specifically with crypto researchers or even there's 98 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: crypto economists. So I wanted to talk to companies that 99 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: I knew sift through data. Our track data really well. 100 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: I talked to somebody at Genesis and she had told 101 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 1: me to look at something called free float, which is 102 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: the number of coins in circulation, but you actually subtract 103 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: out like foundations and nonprofit groups, and that sort of 104 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: gives you you know, she said market cap actually isn't 105 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: such a bad way of looking at things because it 106 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: helps you account for speculation and speculative froth. But that reading, 107 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: this free float reading, gave us a reading of seven 108 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: and eighties seven billion, so very different from three trillion. 109 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: And I mean, of course, at the time that you 110 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: started doing this. So when you know the story published 111 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: the markets itself by that market cap value declined a 112 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: lot because the prices were falling. It's all so evident 113 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 1: that crypto has been hit very hard since its peak 114 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 1: in November. It has lost forty of its value, wiping 115 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: out more than five hundred seventy billion dollars. Overall. The 116 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: crypto market has lost nearly two trillion dollars in market 117 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: value since last November. So were you comparing the sort 118 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: of closer to one trillion value to that, you know, 119 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: just under eight hundred billion, like what were the what 120 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: were the apples and apples comparisons? The market did decline 121 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: quite a bit from those highs that we reached back 122 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: in November. So if you were going by the market 123 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: cap figure, it was three trillion back in the fall 124 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: of much closer to one trillion now. So we were 125 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: really trying to compare to numbers that you would have 126 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: seen at the peak. That number, that free float number, 127 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: was actually compared to that three trillion. So it was 128 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: like this was the free float at the time when 129 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: Bitcoin was hitting. Yeah, and for the most part, because 130 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: I ended up talking to a bunch of other people 131 00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: who have been Gav me other readings to look at, 132 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: they also were giving me numbers of their specific readings 133 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 1: for the peak back in and maybe what those numbers 134 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: look like now. And actually some of these readings, the 135 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: free float and some some of these other ones that 136 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll go into next, they all were hovering 137 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: around eight hundred billion or so, and so the readings themselves, 138 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: the free float or realized value, is another one that 139 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: I looked at. They don't fall as dramatically as prices 140 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: or the market cap figure because they're already discounting the 141 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: froth or the speculation. Interesting. So just to recap what 142 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: you're saying, there's this kind of big headline number that 143 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: a lot of folks including US here. A bluemerket paid 144 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: attention to, which is, you know, the bitcoin's peak, at 145 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: Crypto's peak. You're looking at a three trillion dollar market. 146 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: What you're saying is that various other metrics are somewhere 147 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: closer to an eight hundred billion ish number in that 148 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: same period when everything was, you know, maximum froth, as 149 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: it were. What explains the difference between those metrics and 150 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,719 Speaker 1: that three trillion? Is it mostly that speculative activity, or 151 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: are there other factors involved? I think for the most 152 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: part we were just trying to account for the speculative 153 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: activity or the froth or the number of loans or 154 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: the leverage that was out in the system. So they 155 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: realized value figure. That's another one we looked at. That 156 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: one actually came up the most out of all the 157 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: people I spoke with. It just kept coming back again 158 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: and again. Vildana, what is the realized value? Okay, so 159 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 1: realized value it's the prices the coins actually fetch in 160 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: their most recent transaction versus market value, which is the 161 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: sum of the value of stuff that's out there, and 162 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: so I suppose it's just a better way to be 163 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: thinking about. Okay, what price a coin might fetch, so 164 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: to say. So it's the last bid exactly effectively, exactly 165 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 1: for realized value. I spoke with somebody at glass node 166 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: and glass node is pretty well known in the Crypto 167 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: community because they track so much data on this ratio 168 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: that they have, is called M v R V. It's 169 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: market value versus realized value. That ratio in November of 170 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 1: at the peak of crypto prices, hit three point two, 171 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: which means that the market value was three times the 172 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: realized value exactly. So you take the three trillion, you're 173 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: divided by three point two and you get a reading 174 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: around eight hundred seventy five. Obviously it's gonna these numbers 175 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 1: are going to to vary, but you get a reading 176 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: around eight hundred seventy eight hundred eighty billion, and that 177 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: number also just doesn't change as much as the market 178 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: cap figure would, where you're including all the price that 179 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: clients for their different coins. I want to make a 180 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: Qui note when we when we talk about market cap, 181 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: because I have had some o g markets editors and also, 182 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: you know, people on the Internet, points out that capitalization 183 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: is a concept that historically really works best when you're 184 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: talking about companies with, you know, shares and like floats 185 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: and is a little bit less robust when analogized to 186 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 1: something like token prices. Do you think it's like a 187 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 1: big deal? I mean when folks get you know, we're 188 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: in an industry in which there's a lot of jargon, 189 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: there's a lot of nomenclature, there's a lot of obsession 190 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: about this is the one true metric. Is there really 191 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: a one true metric or one true way of describing 192 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 1: everything that's happening on do folks need to just get 193 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: comfortable with nuance? I think we were trying to break 194 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: the idea that there is this one true metric, because 195 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: the market cap figure really is something that you just 196 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 1: kept seeing over and over. I remember making news when 197 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,839 Speaker 1: the overall crypto market cap reached to trilling. Well, first 198 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 1: one trillion and to trill and then neared three trillion 199 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: at the end of last year, and so I think 200 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,959 Speaker 1: we really wanted to just dispel the notion that you 201 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: should just be using this one measure when really there's 202 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: a couple of as we point out in the story, 203 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: different ways to try to show the true the so 204 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: called true value of Crypto. We'll be right back with 205 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 1: more from Villa Donna about the methodology for calculating crypto 206 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:41,439 Speaker 1: market value, even if crypto does have a ton of potential. 207 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: You know, what are those folks, the most optimistic among them, like, 208 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: what are they expecting it to get to? That, I think, 209 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: depends largely on how the market is moving. So last 210 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: year one, and also in two, one, prices for skyrocketing. 211 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: You had a lot of price targets for big one 212 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: in particular, that we're genormous. I think that's the best 213 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 1: or or higher. I think there were some that were 214 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: two hundred fifty thou so. So when when prices are 215 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: rising and you have people just really excited and they're 216 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: in this mindset of okay, things are just going to continue, 217 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: like look at what we've done over the last two 218 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 1: years alone, it's going to continue going this way, I 219 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: think that's when you have people obviously most bullish and 220 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: they're expecting the market to just grow and grow and grow. 221 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: It's very different this year. Prices aren't doing as well, 222 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 1: so people have been sort of more restrained. More restrained, 223 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 1: you don't really hear so many price targets, but or 224 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: you don't hear about as you don't have as many 225 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: people coming out with notes or research saying okay, this 226 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: is a good price target for a bitcoin to reach, 227 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: but it's it's it's hard. I think a lot of 228 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: people make the comparison to the gold market, where gold 229 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 1: has been around for I don't even know how long, 230 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: forever maybe, and that market, its Cryptos, is sometimes thought 231 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: of as digital, digital gold. Yes, exactly. So you're having 232 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: these comparisons between the two where you have people saying, okay, 233 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: it might overtake that market at some point, but really 234 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: it's I think it just depends on how the market 235 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 1: ebbs in Waynes, which is to your earlier point, kind 236 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: of the challenge with a metric like market value, right, 237 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: and that it so much sentiment is wrapped up in 238 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: what that number is and what it means to people. Uh, 239 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: you know, there's a phrase that various folks, including sometimes 240 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: reports is, like to use about like well, what's an 241 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: objective measure, as if there is some source of emagic 242 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: number that is removed from any kind of prejudice or 243 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: bias Um that exists. But it does sound to me 244 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: like what you're saying is there is fairly broad spread consensus, 245 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 1: at least among certain types of academics, researches, etcetera, that 246 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: this idea of realized value is a helpful if if 247 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: folks wanted to get really attached to an Tkato, that's 248 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: the one they would recommend. Yeah, it really did keep 249 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: coming up again and again. I talked to a researcher 250 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: at UBS, I talked to glass node, I talked to 251 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: chain analysis, which is sort of like forensic crypto company, 252 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: and all of these companies they're tracking data, they're looking 253 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: at all these different charts. So the people I spoke with, 254 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: they all kept bringing up realized value. You do hear 255 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: it a lot in the crypto space. You do hear 256 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: about this measure. It's just it's not something that's as 257 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: mainstream as mark, as crypto market cap, but I do 258 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: think that it's a solid way to be looking at things. 259 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: I mean there's a literal website called coin market cap 260 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: dot COM, yeah, which is quote it quite a bit 261 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: from it and that's, you know, that's often the place 262 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: that people anchor around. So you know, if I, if 263 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: I fire up a web browser right now and I 264 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: go to there, it's it's like very it's it's the name. 265 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: It also says, Hey, here's like today's market Cap, twenty 266 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: four volume, today's cryptocurrency prices by market cap. What would 267 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: take for realized value? Dot Com, should we started? Well, 268 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: I think the if you're into crypto and your crypto 269 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: investor and you do have this belief that prices will 270 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: recover from from what's been going on this year and 271 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: you know for alternative they'll keep going higher and they'll 272 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: replace the dollar or whatever, or the goal, the gold 273 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: market or whatever else, then I think the idea of 274 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 1: being able to say three trillion is just much more 275 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: allerting than saying the realized value is billion. It's just 276 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: it's obviously a much bigger figure. It grabs people's attention. 277 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: So maybe realized value won't become a commonplace, mainstream thing, 278 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: only because I think people want to use the bigger number, 279 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: the one that includes all the froth, the one with 280 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: the TA, the one with the T. Yeah, even if 281 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: it's not yet quadrillion. Yeah, it may never be. We'll see, 282 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: but I can easily spend it. On that note, thank 283 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: you for Don always a pleasure to have you. Thanks 284 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: for having me. You can find more of Bill Donna's 285 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: reporting on the Bloomberg terminal on Bloomberg Dot Com or 286 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: follow her on twitter. She's at Vil Donna Harrick. That 287 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: is v I L D A N E H A 288 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: J R. I C on the next episode of Bloomberg Crypto, 289 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: the merge. It's finally over, it's done, it happened, so 290 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: now we're gonna ask what's next, and you'll hear words 291 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: like splurge, purge, purge, all things that rhyme with emerge 292 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: and that will soon follow. This is Bloomberg Crypto, a 293 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: daily podcast from Bloomberg and I heart radio. For more 294 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: shows from I heart radio, visit the I heart radio APP, 295 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Send US 296 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 1: your comments, questions or suggestions for the show to Crypto 297 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Dot net or find us on twitter. We're 298 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: at CRYPTO. The supervising producer of Bloomberg Crypto is Vicky Verklina. 299 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Janet Babin. Our producers are Mohammed 300 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: Farup and Sharon Barriro. Our associate producers are ty Butler 301 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: and Moses on them. Desta wonder at is our engineer. 302 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:21,880 Speaker 1: Original Music by Leo Sidran. I'm Stacy Marie Schmall we'll 303 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: be back tomorrow.