WEBVTT - Surveillance Special: Telecom in 2019 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.520 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. We're 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.120 gonna jump right into it. Richard Greenfield one of the 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:33.760 most courageous securities analysts out there because pilloried years ago 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:37.120 on a thing called advantage guy named Walter Pisk who 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.559 told me to buy Apple years ago. I didn't. I'm 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:42.080 not allowed to buy anything. But anyways, the two of 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:46.040 them together are very powerful. Paul, let's dump jump into 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.680 the conversation. We gotta go really with the topic of 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.240 the moment, which is his five G thing in Whahwei. Yeah, 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:53.320 there's just a tremendous amount going on here as we 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:56.920 think about on the telecom space globally, Walter, let's start 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:58.720 with that. You know, we think about the Huahwei news. 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:00.480 It's in them, it's right in the top topic right 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:02.880 here in the news this week. But it really ties 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:05.080 into the biggest deal in your space, or one of 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.120 the biggest deals in your space, Sprint t Mobile. What's 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:09.080 the latest there, and how's it all tight in it? 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:11.680 Really does? I mean, there's there's a tremendous focus on 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.320 this race to five G and and beating China and 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:18.640 being the first to have our country our companies excel there, 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:21.039 and you know, pushing back on Huawei is part of that. 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:22.800 It's also part of the trade war. But I think 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.119 it's you know, I think was as has been mentioned 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.720 over the past twenty four hours, but you know, Sprint 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.440 TEA Mobile, is it transaction that is getting pitched in 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.360 part on you know, even if it raises prices, does 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:37.640 T Mobile get enough spectrum to accelerate five G? And Again, 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:42.640 if this is a political agenda um for the administration, 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.080 that could be something that that supersedes how the d 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:49.600 o J typically looks at transactions, which should be really 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:52.600 on whether it raises prices for customers or not. So, 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:55.320 I mean, when we think about the five this race 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:58.160 to five G on a global basis, in your perspective, 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.680 is it really the US versus China? I mean, I 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.480 think it's that's the primary focus. Right. You've got a 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:06.880 number of vendors there, their ability to move fast on 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.800 deploying UM technologies in their country. UM, So that that's 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:14.240 definitely been the focus on the administration. UM. You know, 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:18.160 being first is clearly important UM and starts to develop, 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.000 you know, who can have leading market shairs. But look, 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:22.359 at the end of the day, we're effectively shutting down Huawei. 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.880 That's going to provide an opportunity for other companies to 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:27.040 to excel on the at least on the infrastructure side. 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.000 I mean, rich, I was the last one to get 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:30.840 an iPhone. I was the last one to get the 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:34.799 iPod thing before it as well. Is your content world 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.280 going to catch up with Walter's five G world? I 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.840 mean is it? Are we going to consume in five 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:45.519 years with five G like we consume now? Well, look, 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:48.800 I think the one of the big questions we have 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:52.600 right is you know what you're seeing is TV is 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:55.079 shifting to the Internet. You know, it used to be. 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:57.480 I think we were often looked at as a heretic 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.600 talking about our good Luck bundle hashtag four five years ago. 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.399 No one's calling us a heretic anymore. I mean now 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.600 it's just a question of how fast is the traditional 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:12.080 linear TV world melting down? Cord cuttings at record levels. 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:16.520 You're seeing essentially every major media company kind of if 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:19.079 you look at the legacy media companies, they just went 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:21.840 through their big TV advertising upfront where they show up 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.520 all their new shows for the coming year, and they 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:28.240 actually spent more time only the beginning of every single presentation, 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:32.519 Tom was talking about their streaming plans, Warner Media starting one, 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:36.000 NBC starting one, Disney's talking about owning a percent of Hulu. 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:38.680 Now at the beginning of their presentation, I mean, it 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:40.800 was all about the Internet, and so once you shift 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:44.720 TV to the Internet, five G flows perfectly. And in fact, 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:46.440 I think one of the most interesting things that no 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.960 one's talking about right now is what Verizon is planning 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:52.080 on doing. What So Verizon signed a deal when they 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:53.880 reported earnings, they came out with the press release that 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:58.640 they are expanding their partnership with YouTube TV. So you 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:02.560 take a best in class over the top cable service 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:05.160 and you combine it with Verizon. Now they're not just 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.360 packaging with five G. They're planning on selling it. Instead 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:10.640 of selling FiOS TV, they want to sell YouTube TV 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.400 and they haven't started the marketing for that. But you know, 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:15.520 you asked the question of how they're going to take 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.440 advantage of what five G can do. And I think 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:22.360 that's a great example of you know, the actual quality 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.680 of the experience of combining what YouTube and Google have 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:29.960 done with YouTube TV with these better networks is really 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:31.960 interesting to us. So one of the things as I 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:34.760 think about having YouTube guys in the studio together, I 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.680 think about the A. T and T Time Warner deal. 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:39.520 But you know, Tom, these are the big A T. T. 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.960 One of the biggest names in Walter Space and Time Warner. 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:44.279 You know, the Legacy Media, a company that Richard and 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:47.520 I've covered for a long time. Putting those two companies together, Walter, 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.680 from your perspective, was that a good deal for A 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:52.560 T and T. Part of it for A T and 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:56.000 T is that could becoming this massive conglomerate and its diversification, 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.360 and they're figuring out ways to to continue to fund 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:02.159 dividend grow, which is what their investors care about the most. 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.800 So if they can create a five G studio like 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:08.640 I guess for eisen has and and figure out ways 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.000 to mix the technology with the content, I guess they're synergy. 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:14.800 Come on, T and T has done eight point one 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.840 percent per year for the last ten years. Rich Greenfield, 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.560 that's a failure right, I mean, is a T and 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:24.080 D ready for a moonshot? I don't think so. Look, 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:26.760 I call it the many ways. I look at the 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.960 whole space and call this the March of the Penguins. 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.719 You probably remember the beginning of the movie Tom where 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:34.560 all of the penguins are huddling the Emperor Penguins. It's 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:38.160 freezing cold, winter's coming and they huddled together for survival. 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:41.080 None of the media companies are doing anything interesting. I 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:45.360 mean A T and T buying Time, Warner, Discovery merging 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:49.080 with Scripts, Disney buying Fox Via commerging with CBS. These 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.479 are the most unexciting transformative transactions. We got a minute 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:53.919 here and then we're gonna come back. And as I 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:56.680 get things to talk about Walter Pi, if the creative 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:01.120 people walk out the door, these companies change, don't they do. 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:03.839 There's this existing amount of library, and there's these Look, 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:07.160 the direct TV customers are fleeing every quarter, but there 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.919 is some residual free cash flow that helps them to 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.200 fund the dividend. But yeah, I mean, look, it's important. 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:14.200 Rich would know far more about that than I do. 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:17.480 Um Game of Thrones is over. You know what happens 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:20.960 with HBO what happens with HBO. Look, but look, you know, Tom, 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:22.479 I would say that you know, at the end of 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:27.320 the day, UM content is about spending money, right, I mean, 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:29.279 you've got to spend a lot of money. You've got 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:31.680 to really invest in it. I think it's way too 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:33.600 early to tell how much A T and T is 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.760 going to invest in businesses like HBO. We haven't even 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.559 seen their new kind of Warner Media whether they're gondn't 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:41.599 call it HBO Max. But we haven't even seen this yet, 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.040 so it's still pretty early than Yes, there's been a 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:47.680 lot of change. People are definitely nervous, both internally and externally, 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:49.800 but we'll see what they actually put up on the screen. 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:52.440 This is a joy. Rich Greenfield Walter with us will 0:06:52.480 --> 0:07:10.760 continue this discussion Falsephenian time can thrilled on media jab 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:13.040 where us Walter pri secon Yes, we'll get to Apple 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:15.440 had a couple of emails. We will get to Apple 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:18.280 with Mr Pick as we can. He dragged along our 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.240 green Field where this is Rich give us a story 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:26.000 quickly of the vantage I p o. I want to 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.040 go back, Tom, that's too far ago. I can't even 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:31.040 you know, I'm too old. My memory doesn't go back 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:35.440 really important about the courage of securities analysts and that 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.280 you have an opinion and the company gets angry, what 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:40.800 do you do? Look, I mean, you know, take a 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:43.000 great example of Disney. I mean, they didn't like our 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:46.480 celerating for three years. Um, you know, the stock ons 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:48.200 are performed. I mean the only real movement in the 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:50.240 stock has been in the last sort of eight weeks 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.160 where it had a big bump, but it was basically 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.600 flat for three years straight, flat to down. Where are 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:57.440 you buy old Cell and Disney right now? Now Now we're 0:07:57.440 --> 0:07:59.160 at neutral and we're just waiting. I think, you know, 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:01.040 the good news for dis Me is they've set really 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:05.800 ambitious goals. The bad news is, uh, the cable ecosystem 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:10.400 is coming unhinged, chord creditings accelerating. But look, the the 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.480 issue answer your question, very bluntly, is they don't let 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:15.760 us into analyst meetings, they don't let us call them, 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:19.080 they don't respond to emails. It's disappointing behavior from a 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:22.200 big public company. But the reality is we don't need 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:25.240 them to do our job, and we're gonna unfortunately, Tom, 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:27.200 I mean, it's it happens more than you would think. 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:28.760 But what you and I should have done aboutour or 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:30.520 five years ago. Tom has just listened to this guy 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.880 Rich and just gone basically, I'm gonna paraphrase here, long 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.319 Netflix and just short the rest of media. And that's 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:37.880 kind of where Rich has been, and it's kind of 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:41.560 where the stocks have traded. But so Rich specifically on 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.040 Disney here, you know the way I kind of look 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:47.280 at it. If anybody can compete against the Netflix or 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:49.920 the Amazons or maybe even the Apples and the facebooks, 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:52.480 it's gotta be Disney. I'm not sure if they can 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.720 do it, But do you think they have what it 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:58.120 takes to make this pivot to where the world is going? Look, 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:00.840 they absolutely have the content to do it and the 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:04.520 creative resources to do it. The question is is do 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.400 they really want to quote unquote win and And by 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:10.239 meaning by that, I mean they have to spend aggressively. 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.640 You know, you can't just go in and and dabble 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:16.240 in streaming. You have to literally put all of your 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:19.680 focus on making this work. And the challenges is you know, 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:23.400 Avengers is amazing, right, I Mean, Walt loved Endgame. He 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:26.200 sat through the whole three hours with his family. He's 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:28.679 a super Marvel fan. I mean, there's no doubt about it. 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.839 So did you know they sold two billion dollars worth 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.520 of tickets worldwide? So figure let's just say ten dollars 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:39.199 a ticket. Two hundred million people bought tickets, and Disney 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.800 knows the names of literally none of them. They don't 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.760 know that Walt and his family love Marvel and Avengers. 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.040 So part of the problem is Disney still sticking with 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:53.000 movie theaters, home video DVD iTunes. They're not shifting to 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:55.080 a model where if you want to watch Avengers, the 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.880 only place to watch it is on Disney. Plus, that's 0:09:57.920 --> 0:09:59.920 just too disruptive for them, And so I think the 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:04.400 question is how aggressive is Disney in shifting their business 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:07.840 model to make the streaming service a winner? Because they 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:11.200 can win. It's a matter of how disruptive, you know, 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.240 disrupting yourself. You go back to Apple and Steve Jobs, 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:17.960 and disrupting yourself is really hard culturally to do, and 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:21.600 media companies generally management teams are not incentivized to blow 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.440 up their legacy business models to build for the future. 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:27.880 And I think that that is a real inhibitor of 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:31.959 winning in streaming. So so Walter, let's let's pivot to 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.320 Apple here, because, as Richards is saying, it's hard to 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:36.520 change your core business model. For Apple, it's been that, 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:40.160 let's the unit sales of iPhones has kind of been 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.360 the story for to the last decade or so. You 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:43.880 can throw on iPads if you want, you can throw 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.000 in some other things, some wearables, but it's really been 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:50.240 the phone. Uh can that company? Can Apple make the 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.959 pivot to what is the next thing? And I'm not 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:55.280 even sure I know what the next thing is? Yeah, 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.160 I mean the next thing for them is the focused 0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:00.000 on services and it's and services is not something that's 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.720 necessarily disrupting what they're doing. I mean, look, they've had 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.480 a speed bump in the past year, given the volatility 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.200 that exists in China and sales in China and the 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.200 fact that people are just holding onto their phones for 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:11.959 a long period of time. There's a lot of people 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:13.960 out there, Tom, I don't know what what do you got? 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.360 An iPhone six success? And there's a lot of people 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.840 that have very old iPhones that they haven't upgraded for 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:24.920 all he's checking right now, He's not even sure, yes, exactly. 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:30.040 So the upgrade cycle is at some point can stop lengthening, 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:33.160 and so your your iPhone business is still generating tens 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:35.320 of billions of dollars of free cash flow, and they're 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.439 sitting on a ton of cash. And this is stuff 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:41.760 that they can use to build a content business, not 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.400 necessarily go out and buy a library and legacy product. 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.920 I mean, Riches talked at length about what Netflix has 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.000 done over the past ten years and the amount of 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:54.040 money they can spend. Apple's got nine million active users 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:57.200 of its iPhones. If it can start bringing them content 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.640 and sign them up to a subscription based service, that's 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.000 where they're going, and that's not something that's disrupting their 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:06.240 existing business. What level of cheap is Apple right now? 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.920 It's how to pull back the Apple gloom cruise out 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.760 in full force China. We're all gonna die on the 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.120 Walter pisk range. How cheap is cheap now? For it's 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.360 kind of cheap. It's not super cheap like it was 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.200 five months ago when it was discount to the market. 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.319 I think we're like to turn discount to the market 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.640 has come back largely on these trade warfares, so you're 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:29.800 not getting a massive bargain on it right now. And 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.800 there's frankly risk what they are a huge target in 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:37.720 this trade war, what we've done as a country to Huawei, 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:39.600 and now what you're seeing in China as far as 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:42.720 the negative sentiment towards the US have an impact on 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.000 other numbers. Just because the time, Richard, What's what's your 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:47.640 one idea right now? Give us a stock idea today 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.680 where Sweeney can go large this summer. The single best 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:52.640 idea for your listeners right now that I would go 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:54.959 all in on it is Snapchat. You know, we think 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:58.600 Snapchat is making the turn. It is a hated company 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:01.560 by Wall Street, very much like Twitter was two years ago. 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:04.600 Nobody wants to talk about it in investor meetings. It's 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.280 been left for dead. The stocks bounced off the bottom. 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.360 It's still well below it's sixteen dollar I p O 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.760 two plus years ago, but it is getting better. They 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.400 are shifting into more of a platform versus a walled garden. 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:20.319 People are not focused on that transition and the fact 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.439 that the product is getting better, and so I look 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.000 at a stock that can move meaningfully over the course 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.440 of the next six to nine months. Snapchat is the 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.120 single best idea I have on alongside. Before we let 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:35.199 you go, guys, just real quick, Viacom, CBS soon soon soon. 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:38.079 But on the other hand, it's a broken record. We've 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.720 been saying soon for three years, but a lot of 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:43.760 people had to get fired first. And Tom, that's the 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.480 next drome. If you're looking for what's going to replace 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.440 Game of Thrones, it's gonna be what happens with Sherry 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:51.760 Redstone And yes, some there we're still alive. And the 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:54.280 two companies of CBS and Viacom, And then the time 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:56.319 to both of you and both the answer within your 0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:00.640 capabilities what happens to sports on media? I mean, does 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:04.520 Amazon start bidding against the networks were all familiar with. 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.280 I mean Amazon's already starting, right, I mean Thursday Night 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:11.480 football you can simulcast on Amazon. They've done things like 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.280 US Open Tennis overseas. But in five years, are they're 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:16.559 going to be dominant? Or you know? It's funny. Jimmy Pittaro, 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.280 who runs ESPN, was interviewed the other day by your 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:21.760 competitor over at the Wall Street Journal, and he was 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:23.840 asked a similar question of like, could you imagine in 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.680 five years you wake up and Amazon, Google and Facebook 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.200 all owned major sports rights, And he basically said, I 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.480 can't envision that, Like, I just don't think it's gonna happen. 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.040 And look, it may not be all three, but I 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:37.160 would be shocked, Tom, literally shocked if one of the 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:41.080 major tech platforms didn't buy some major sports rights over 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.560 the next couple of years and Sunday tickets up right now. 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.400 Amazon could buy Sunday ticket right this year. This has 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:49.560 been wonderful. Thank you so much, both of you coming in. 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:53.440 Walter Price second, Rich Greenfield's great, and particularly great because 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:56.240 their entourage is so large that we got him into 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.200 the Claim Daytrium here at our world headquarters. They are 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.960 with bt I G. Again, don't ask us for their literature. 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.360 We protect the copyright of all of our guests literature. 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.760 You can get it and bt I G. Rich Greenfield, 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:23.800 Walter Pissek Paul to get things started with Craig Moffatt, 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:27.280 who's won the Institutional Investor Awards so many times. I 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.320 think they named it after Yeah, exactly, the cable telecom 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.760 to Craig with us, and I love Craig your single 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:39.600 phrase on a T and T searching for a unifying theory, 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.440 whether we own a T and T or not we 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.640 care about Ma Belle, is this does this mob bell 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:50.280 have a future? Well, how are you, Tom? You know, 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.720 I I don't know if it has a unifying theory. 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:56.440 That's the problem. Um. The some of the businesses are 0:15:56.440 --> 0:16:00.040 healthier than others. Um, the wireless business is getting a 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:04.760 bit healthier. The media businesses that they've bought UM based 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:08.720 I think an uphill challenge to compete with Disney Plus 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:13.600 and some of the online streaming solutions. Um. But it 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:15.960 direct TV, as we all know, it has a world 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:19.120 of problems. But but the bigger problem with a T 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:22.240 and T as a whole is is what is the whole? 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:25.280 What is the unifying theory that makes this more than 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:30.400 just a collection of disparate businesses, most of which are struggling. So, Craig, 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:32.400 if I think back all the way to when that 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.440 deal was announced, it was, you know, just kind of 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.240 sum it up. It was, Hey, we've got this big 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.720 wireless network, and let's put some content out to those 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.920 on this wireless network, to our customers. How concerned are 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:45.200 you and you know investors that it seems like a 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.600 lot of the talent from Time Warner walked out the door, 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.240 whether it's HBO or Turner And do I really want 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.960 some telephone guys running my media business. Look that that's 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:56.200 a big enough problem in and of itself, right, I mean, 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.760 I think it was. There was a good logic for saying, 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:04.359 at the silos that used to be Time Warner, that is, 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:08.600 the studio running separately from the Turner networks running separately 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.760 from HBO, that those were two siloed and that there 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.639 was a strategic comparative to unify them somewhat so that 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:19.119 you could make decisions across the the entire business of 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:23.960 Warner Media. Um, that that would would make some sense strategically. 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:27.000 I get that. And in fact, you could also say 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:28.919 that there's some cost savings in doing that too, and 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.439 that's fine as well. I get all that. That's fine. 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:36.520 The problem is the hippocratic oath of business, right is, first, 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:39.760 do no harm to the patient. Um. If the talent 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:43.400 of an organization like HBO or Turner leaves or Warners 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:47.639 Warner Brothers studio leaves, you're in real trouble. And and 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.280 so that the challenge facing a T and T is 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:55.320 how do you make some necessary strategic adjustments without jeopardizing 0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:59.480 the cultural integrity of the business. And the jury's out, 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.600 but you have to be at least a little nervous, 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.119 or more than a little nervous. That's some top talent 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.479 has already left, and that a lot of resumes are 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:10.480 out there, Craig, just because it's time, I want to 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:13.560 go to the vision for all our listeners of how 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:17.159 many players there will be. It's a four apoly now 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:20.960 in wireless. I guess we're ever in a national debate 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:25.440 about a triopoli in wireless? Do we care? Or is 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.439 it just Tea Mobile and everybody else? What is it 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:32.399 right now? Well, look, you're right, it's it's at the 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:36.680 network layer of wireless. It's for if the Sprint Tea 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:40.359 Mobile deal gets approved with or without the spinoff of 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:43.600 the Boost Wireless brand, which is what the companies have 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:47.199 proposed to the federal to the FCC, and the FCC 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:49.560 has agreed that that's sufficient. The d o J hasn't 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:53.080 decided yet. Um, it would still be going from four 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.679 to three networks. And that's the real question that the 0:18:56.720 --> 0:19:00.359 Department of Justice is struggling with. Is three underlying net works, 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.560 irrespective of the number of players retailing on top of it, 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.919 is three underlying networks sufficient? I don't know the answer 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.840 to that. I'm not sure you can make the argument 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:13.800 that it's good for five G investment and and five 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:18.640 G technology to to let the third player be stronger. UM. 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:21.920 But the counter argument that ultimately you're likely to see 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:26.679 higher prices for consumers not an implausible one. And again 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:29.280 that's what the d o J is struggling with. So Craig, 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.239 you talk about perhaps you know an uncertain underlying you know, 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:34.480 strategy for a T and T. Now that's ball time, Warner, 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.800 let's switch gears to Comcast. Um. You know obviously the 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.680 you know, the fantastic cable company over the years, uh, 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:44.600 you know, they bought NBCUniversal, really getting into the content business. 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:47.840 They made a big run at Century Fox lost to Disney. 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:50.680 I guess the you know, the they did the Consolation 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.520 Prize with Sky. Are they a collection of assets or 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:55.640 do you see an kind of an overriding theme there? 0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:59.720 I see them as two collections of assets. It's it's 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:01.840 not quite as much of a hodgepodge as a T 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.960 and T is. But the it's not entirely clear to me, 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:09.200 nor has it ever been, by the way, how NBC 0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:12.359 fits with the cable business. And it's not entirely clear 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.560 to me how Sky, their newest asset, fits with the 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.800 cable business. It sort of fits with NBC. But so 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.639 you know, the challenge for Comcast is now somewhat similar 0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:24.639 to a T and T and that you've got a 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:28.840 cable business which a lot of people have for years 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:32.639 said looked like a dinosaur UM that is just moving 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:38.400 from strength to strength, and the infrastructure underlying UM there's 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:42.960 the physical distribution of ones and zeros, whether it's it's 0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:46.320 Netflix or Hulu or somebody else's O T T video. 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:50.160 That side of the business does really well in this 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:53.720 kind of new media future. But it's really unclear what 0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.959 happens to NBC and what happens to Sky in that 0:20:57.000 --> 0:21:01.360 new media future. And that's what investors grappling with with Comcast, 0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:04.359 which is Comcast is you think of it as a 0:21:04.359 --> 0:21:08.119 cable company, but of its revenues are now non cable 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:10.919