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Speaker 1: Welcome to Daily Variety, your daily dose of news and

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Speaker 1: analysis for entertainment industry insiders. It's Thursday, January twenty second,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. I'm your host, Cynthia Lyttleton. I am

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Speaker 1: co editor in chief of Variety alongside Ramin Setuda. I'm

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Speaker 1: in LA. He's in New York, and Brighty has reporters

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Speaker 1: around the world covering the business of entertainment. Happy Oscar

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Speaker 1: nominations day to all who celebrate. My great colleagues, led

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Speaker 1: by Brent Lang and Clayton Davis, have been at it

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Speaker 1: for hours analyzing this year's contenders and what it all means.

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Speaker 1: Go to Variety dot com for all the news and

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Speaker 1: analysis and reactions you need to know to understand the

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Speaker 1: race as Film Award season heads into the home stretch,

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Speaker 1: and check out Daily Variety's sibling podcast, Award Circuit for

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Speaker 1: more analysis and roundtable discussion. On Friday, in today's episode

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Speaker 1: of Daydaily Variety, we'll get an update from vriety's Todd

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Speaker 1: Spangler on where the Netflix deal to buy Warner Brothers

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Speaker 1: Discovery stands and what Netflix's Q four twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: earnings report tells us about the business momentum at the

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Speaker 1: big end. But before we get to that, here is

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Speaker 1: the only non oscar headlines that you need to know

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Speaker 1: this morning. As Todd Spangler predicts in the conversation to

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Speaker 1: come in a few minutes, Paramount's guidance did in fact

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Speaker 1: extend its tender offer to buy Warner Brothers Discovery shares

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Speaker 1: in its quest to pry the deal away from Netflix.

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Speaker 1: The offer now runs through February twenty. Warner Brothers Discovery

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Speaker 1: says more than ninety percent of its holders have already

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Speaker 1: rejected this overture. Paramount is also planning a proxy fight

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Speaker 1: to offer shareholders an alternate slate of directors to vote

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Speaker 1: for in its effort to sway the company away from Netflix.

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Speaker 1: That process would happen around Warner Brothers Discovery's annual meeting,

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Speaker 1: which is usually held in June. Warner Brothers Discovery has

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Speaker 1: guided that it expects to hold a shareholder vote on

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Speaker 1: the Netflix deal by April. That would make Paramounts proxy

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Speaker 1: effort moot, but who knows what other maneuvers will be coming.

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Speaker 1: You can follow it all by keeping watch on Briday

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Speaker 1: dot com and our social platforms. And now it's time

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Speaker 1: for conversations with Ridy journalists about news and trends and

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Speaker 1: show business. Todd Spangler, Bridy's business editor gives us a

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Speaker 1: look at where Netflix stands now as a business and

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Speaker 1: its hopes for the WBD transaction. Todd Spangler, thanks for

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Speaker 1: joining me. Hello, Hello, it has been a week of

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Speaker 1: hard labor on the business beat. There has been no

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Speaker 1: shortage of news. Netflix kicked off Q four twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five earning season with its report on Tuesday. Let's start

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Speaker 1: their Todd, how do you assess the state of the business,

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Speaker 1: the overall momentum based on the numbers that they released.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the results were essentially in line with what analysts

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Speaker 2: were expecting, you know, a slight beat on revenue and earning.

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Speaker 2: But I think investors were kind of thrown for a loop.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this was expected too, but they came back

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Speaker 2: that morning on Tuesday morning and said, all right, we're

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Speaker 2: going to shape change our deal for the Warner Brothers

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Speaker 2: studios and streaming from cash and stock to all cash.

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Speaker 2: So that means they're going to take on even more

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Speaker 2: dead and investors I think didn't really like that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they did not like that. I think that now

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Speaker 1: that it's been a couple of months. We can see

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Speaker 1: it's not just a one or two day kind of variation.

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Speaker 1: But this stock has lost almost thirty percent since they

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Speaker 1: announced that they were going to get married to Warner

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Speaker 1: Brothers Discovery.

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Speaker 2: Did you get.

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Speaker 1: Any sense that of any kind of second thoughts now?

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Speaker 2: Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters walked through different questions about

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Speaker 2: how they reached the deal with Warner Brothers, and you

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Speaker 2: know what changed on their thinking on the theatrical front.

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Speaker 2: Ted Sarranda's basically said, Yeah, when I was dismissing theater

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Speaker 2: going as an opp sole, outmoded idea, that's we were

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Speaker 2: not in the business. Now that we're buying Warner Brothers

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Speaker 2: were really bullish shown box office and we want to

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Speaker 2: win the box office, and we're going to keep movies

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Speaker 2: in the theaters for forty five days. So a little

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Speaker 2: bit of pivot there, really.

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Speaker 1: I will completely admit that before December fifth, when they

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Speaker 1: announced this, I was skeptical that Netflix's heart was really

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Speaker 1: in the bidding. But boy was I wrong. But since

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Speaker 1: they announced that, the background guidance that we've been getting

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Speaker 1: is we wouldn't buy this studio to dismantle one of

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Speaker 1: its greatest strengths, and Warner's Brothers one of its greatest strengths.

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Speaker 1: It's a big Hollywood studio. It can get a movie

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Speaker 1: into four thousand locations in the United States, and it

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Speaker 1: can get a movie in theaters around the world, and

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Speaker 1: that is truly an asset and a scarce resource. In

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Speaker 1: a world war, studios are being consolidated, So just from

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Speaker 1: a pure business standpoint, it does stand to reason that

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Speaker 1: conversation also made me really that you know, Sorrandos is like, oh,

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Speaker 1: he's got sharp elbows. And Netflix, for most of its

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Speaker 1: life has been the disruptor and the startup, so of

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Speaker 1: course he would have to throw out some sharp thoughts

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Speaker 1: about the industry, some things that raised eyebrows about movie

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Speaker 1: theaters as a means of bringing attention to how his

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Speaker 1: company was doing things differently. So very interesting to see

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Speaker 1: that the maturation of Netflix. It's hard to believe that, yes,

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Speaker 1: next year, twenty twenty seven, Netflix will in fact turn thirty.

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Speaker 1: It'll be thirty years since they started putting DVDs in

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Speaker 1: red envelopes, so not quite ready to run for president,

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Speaker 1: but certainly maturing. And that it's a good reminder for

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Speaker 1: us that the disruptor, the startup in success with longevity

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Speaker 1: will then become the institutions.

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Speaker 2: Very interesting.

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Speaker 1: Of course, Ted has been out there talking. What was

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Speaker 1: your read on Greg Peter, the co CEO, is a

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Speaker 1: little bit more behind the scenes, but obviously an enormously

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Speaker 1: influential figure there. Did you read anything from his comments

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Speaker 1: about how he's feeling about this deal?

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Speaker 2: You know, nothing terribly new. But they both said, look,

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Speaker 2: when we went into the talks with Warner Brothers Discovery,

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Speaker 2: we were not buyers. Netflix has been doing just fine

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Speaker 2: without a legacy studio. So what they both said was

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Speaker 2: they went and they looked under the hood. They got

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Speaker 2: excited about this opportunity. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity.

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Speaker 2: Maybe once or twice you get a chance to get

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Speaker 2: a huge entertainment property, this big. It came onto the market.

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Speaker 2: They looked at it. They thought it was a great fit.

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Speaker 2: It's complimentary and it's going to, you know, help them

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Speaker 2: continue to grow. And that's the other thing that investors

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Speaker 2: are worried about that Netflix may be plateauing maybe a

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Speaker 2: little bit on their subscriber growth.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting. They announced that they'd hit three hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty five million global subscribers. Let's pause and say, that's

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Speaker 1: an eye popping number. And you and I both remember

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Speaker 1: that cold day in April of twenty twenty two when

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Speaker 1: they announced that for the first time there subscriber growth

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Speaker 1: had retarded a little bit, and that was around two

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Speaker 1: thirty and we thought, okay, that's the ceiling, right, that's

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Speaker 1: the ceiling for global streamers. That day was a really

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Speaker 1: pivotal point for other streamers, a rush to spend at

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Speaker 1: all costs to get market share. He really started to

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Speaker 1: ebb them than when when the marketplace figured well, if

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Speaker 1: Netflix is plateauing that they have gotten there, what were

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Speaker 1: the markets that drove that growth.

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Speaker 2: They did have growth in the US and Canada across

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Speaker 2: all markets really, but the aggregate number, call it twenty

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Speaker 2: five million gain for last year, that was well below

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Speaker 2: for the forty one million they added in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: So that was another kind of worrisome indicator that, hey,

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Speaker 2: you know, where is Netflix's growth going to come from.

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Speaker 2: They also announced it that they were going to increase

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Speaker 2: content spending by about ten percent to twenty billion this year.

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Speaker 2: And you look at all things together here, you need

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Speaker 2: more content to drive more paid memberships and advertising their

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Speaker 2: new business, which they see this as a ritual cycle

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Speaker 2: that will just help them keep on growing and have

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Speaker 2: all parts of the business work in tandem.

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Speaker 1: I know this is hard to answer, but I wonder

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Speaker 1: if Ted Saranders and Greg Peters and others anticipated the

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Speaker 1: level of fight that they would have to around this deal,

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Speaker 1: not only the jousting with paramount Skydance and its contention

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Speaker 1: is that it's put more money on the table than

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Speaker 1: the Netflix deal, and also just in the industry than

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Speaker 1: a lot of the very grave concern that this deal

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Speaker 1: could have just massive ripple effects on the larger film ecosystem.

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Speaker 1: Do you think they anticipated the level of fight across

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Speaker 1: different constituencies that they have faced in the last going

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Speaker 1: on sixty days.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they surely anticipated a backlash, and specifically in the

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Speaker 2: theatrical front. I think they were ready for that. They're

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Speaker 2: use to getting attacked as devaluing entertainment and the entertainment industry.

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Speaker 2: Even before the Warner Brothers deal, they were being accused

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Speaker 2: of hurting the theatrical movie industry.

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Speaker 1: Even as they put huge budgets into movies like last

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Speaker 1: year's Frankenstein's from major filmmakers like Jamo Del Toro. I

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Speaker 1: think still in the creative community, there's a sense that

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Speaker 1: there's a Netflix movie and then there's a theatrical movies.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Ted Serenas has worked very hard to say, look,

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Speaker 2: we were not in the theatrical film distribution business before

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Speaker 2: we are now. And to his credit he said, look,

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Speaker 2: Netflix has changed its mind and its strategy. In the past.

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Speaker 2: They once said we're never going to do advertising. Well,

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Speaker 2: lo and behold, they've done that. They once waved people

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Speaker 2: off the idea that they were going to acquire sports

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Speaker 2: rights in any meaningful way, and they are now in

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Speaker 2: business with Major League Baseball, the NFL, VWE and more so.

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Speaker 2: His point was essentially like they are the mainstream incumbent

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Speaker 2: powerhouse in Hollywood, the to.

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Speaker 1: Say head on, hey, we've evolved. We've said things at

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Speaker 1: certain times, and then events and the marketplace carry us.

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Speaker 1: In another way, I'm thinking of the corollary in terms

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Speaker 1: of the former Jeff Buchus, CEO of Time Warner, which

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Speaker 1: for decades was the parent company of HBO, He famously

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Speaker 1: dismissed Netflix. The thought of Netflix rising to be as

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Speaker 1: strong competitor as akin to the Albanian army taking over

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Speaker 1: the world. He came to probably rue those words, and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure Sirandos is somewhat regretting some of the proclamations

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Speaker 1: about sports and advertising. But Ted Sarandos is truly an affable.

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Speaker 1: He's an enthusiastic guy and a true fan, a true

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Speaker 1: student of pop culture, right he is. Let me close

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Speaker 1: by asking you the paramounts guidance of it all. Did

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Speaker 1: they still technically have a tender offer out there for shares?

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Speaker 1: Do you have any read as to what's next from them?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, so their previous offers are on the twenty

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Speaker 2: first on Wednesday. If they're going to stay in it,

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Speaker 2: they're going to have to say we're going to extend

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Speaker 2: the deadline for offer, which I think they'll do. The

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Speaker 2: thing that would really change the equation is if they

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Speaker 2: came back and offered more money. I don't see that

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Speaker 2: happening right now because if that were something they were

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Speaker 2: prepared to do, they would have done it already. So

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Speaker 2: I think they either to save face or because they

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Speaker 2: really think they have a shot at persuading shareholders and

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Speaker 2: they are the better suitor. I think they're going to

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Speaker 2: continue this and play out the string as long as

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Speaker 2: they can.

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Speaker 1: And I guess there's a hail mary shot that a

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Speaker 1: judge in Delaware would say, yes, we have to put

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Speaker 1: this Netflix Warner Brothers transaction on pause. But that surely

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Speaker 1: does seem like a long shot.

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Speaker 2: It's definitely a long shot.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm so curious read Hastings, who was the founder

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Speaker 1: and stepped down as chairman a few years ago. I'm

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Speaker 1: so curious as to whether he's calling Ted and Greg

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Speaker 1: every day and offering his counsel, or if he is

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Speaker 1: just somewhere watching it all happen.

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Speaker 2: He is at his ski resort, I think, but he's

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Speaker 2: still involved in the company. Apparently he was not. Ted

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Speaker 2: Serrando said he wasn't super gung ho on them going

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Speaker 2: after Werner Brothers, but he trusted them to go forward

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Speaker 2: and make the best deal they could.

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Speaker 1: And my sense of him is he's a gracious enough

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Speaker 1: person not to be going I told you so, I

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Speaker 1: told you so. But oh boy, there will be much

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Speaker 1: more much written about all of this process, no doubt. Todd,

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Speaker 1: as always, thank you for rising early and working hard

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Speaker 1: to cover all this.

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Speaker 2: My pleasure. Good to talk to you.

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Speaker 1: As we close out today's episode. Here's a few things

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Speaker 1: we're watching for I'm recording this at LAX before I

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Speaker 1: head off to Park City, Utah for the Sundance Film Festival.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a momentous one. Scripted TV is

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Speaker 1: kicking back up again after a quiet period in December.

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Speaker 1: Three big shows will be rolling out next week. Disney

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Speaker 1: Plus launches its latest from Marvel TV, wonder Man on

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Speaker 1: January twenty seventh. Three of Shrinking drops January twenty eighth

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Speaker 1: on Apple TV and Ridgerton fans will rejoice on January

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Speaker 1: twine when part one of season four arrives on Netflix.

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Speaker 1: Before we Go, Congrats to Michael Hayerman and Sean Laughlin

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Speaker 1: of EndemolShine North America. Hayerman has been promoted to Executive

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Speaker 1: Vice President of Unscripted Series, while Laughlin has been promoted

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Speaker 1: to Executive VP of Unscripted Development. EndemolShine North America is

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Speaker 1: part of European Powerhouse Banajet. Thanks for listening. This episode

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Speaker 1: was written and reported by me Cynthia Littleton, with contributions

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Speaker 1: from Todd Spangler Stakes nixt Hickpicks. Please leave us a

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Speaker 1: review at the podcast platform of your choice, and please

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Speaker 1: Tune in Monday for another episode of Daily Variety, and

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Speaker 1: don't forget to tell us what you think at podcasts

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Speaker 1: at variety dot com. Thanks