WEBVTT - Fed Gets a Win Deflating Asset Bubbles

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>more Fed talk we want to get to. Yeah, well,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking to the FED, it's not really succeeding when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to its dual mandate. Yes, unemployment is low, but

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<v Speaker 1>inflation remains sky high. That's at It's monetary tightening campaign

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<v Speaker 1>is having a major impact in deflating asset bubbles that

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<v Speaker 1>just swelled during the pandemic. I mean, we're talking crypto

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<v Speaker 1>housing prices, tech stocks, and it's doing so without up

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<v Speaker 1>ending its financial system. Rich Miller writes all about it.

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<v Speaker 1>He's Bloomberg News Economics reporter he joins his via zoom

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<v Speaker 1>from Washington, d C. Rich. Good to have you with

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<v Speaker 1>us this ternon. So take us through the metrics that

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<v Speaker 1>you looked at when you talk about deflating asset bubbles here. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, obviously the one that topic topic the juror

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment is is crypto, right, and that's depending

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<v Speaker 1>on how you measured It's the market cap of crypto

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<v Speaker 1>is down about two thirds from like three trillion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>high not too long ago. Um. If you can look

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<v Speaker 1>at the Fang stocks, they're down about more than fifty um.

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<v Speaker 1>Nasac is down less than that, but Nasac as a whole.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you um look at the Fang stocks that

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<v Speaker 1>down by more than fifty cent, and the house prices

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<v Speaker 1>they're just starting to tick over. But you know, this

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<v Speaker 1>is the first time they've basically started the decline and

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<v Speaker 1>in ten in ten years, um, so all across the

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<v Speaker 1>board we're seeing sort of pretty weak asset prices. And

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<v Speaker 1>if you would you know, I told people, you know

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<v Speaker 1>that the FED was gonna raise rates so aggressively a

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<v Speaker 1>year ago, Uh, they would have said, oh my god,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're gonna see havoc in the financial markets.

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<v Speaker 1>You're gonna you're gonna see um firms going bust. You're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna see uh bank runs, You're gonna see etcetera, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>None of that has happened. You know, we we the

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<v Speaker 1>air is coming out of these bubbles. But so far,

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<v Speaker 1>so far, and that's a big, big provisor. So far,

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<v Speaker 1>it hasn't really you know, you know, shaking the financial

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<v Speaker 1>system like we saw in you know, the Great Financial Crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting, I mean even looking at something like commodities,

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<v Speaker 1>they're down about uh from their high back in June,

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<v Speaker 1>and some of that's geopolitical rich, but you do wonder,

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<v Speaker 1>right like it makes you think might the FED f

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<v Speaker 1>O M. C. J. Powell and Company be able to

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<v Speaker 1>engineer that soft landing? Yeah? I mean it it increases

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<v Speaker 1>the chances, right um um. Obviously, if if you really

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<v Speaker 1>saw havoc in the system, you know, the the we'll

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<v Speaker 1>be heading into a recession, very clear really and probably

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<v Speaker 1>a deep one, and and the FED would have to

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<v Speaker 1>be cutting rates a lot. But uh, so far they can.

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<v Speaker 1>They've been able to keep raising race without sort of

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<v Speaker 1>causing so much havoc in the financial market that that

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<v Speaker 1>that they'll have to you know, stop or retrace. And

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<v Speaker 1>I've got a quote in there from Jeremy Stein, he's

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<v Speaker 1>an ex fed governor, and you know he said, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you had told me a year ago that they

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<v Speaker 1>were going to be raising this, I'd say, oh my god,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you're gonna crack everything up. But so far

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't. Is One of the reasons why this is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of okay is because it goes to what's referred

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<v Speaker 1>to as the wealth effect. When people's assets decline, they

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<v Speaker 1>tend not to spend as much money on large purchases.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not huge though, right, Yeah, I mean I

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<v Speaker 1>think the economists say it's you know, for every dollar full,

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<v Speaker 1>it's only like a couple of cents off consumption basically, right,

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<v Speaker 1>it might be a little a little, a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>But does that have an effect to bring down inflation. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that'll that'll be one factor contributing to uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a slowdown and consumption. And that's what the fit defend wants,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, consumption to slow, demand to slow so that

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's one of the one of the one of

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<v Speaker 1>the vehicles. But I guess the main vehicles are what

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<v Speaker 1>you'd say, you know, your higher buying costs right, so

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<v Speaker 1>housing um buying less you know, fewer cars, buying, fewer

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<v Speaker 1>durable goods. That would be the main um mechanism by

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<v Speaker 1>which the higher interest rates would slow the economy down.

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<v Speaker 1>But a peripheral periphetly we would also by by knocking

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<v Speaker 1>asset prices down and makes people feel less rich. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna save a little more, I'm not going to spend

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<v Speaker 1>that money, right. You know one thing I want to

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<v Speaker 1>ask you, rich and I wonder if we can't roll

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<v Speaker 1>out some kind of financial blow up, which you you

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<v Speaker 1>point out your story because you know, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>things I think about this, I'm not saying this is

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<v Speaker 1>a blow but you have Blackstones Behemoth private credit fund,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, hitting redemption limits for the first time. It's

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<v Speaker 1>to your histories because you had investors pulling out some

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<v Speaker 1>fifty billion dollars from the corporate landing. But like I

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<v Speaker 1>saw that, and we continue to kind of figure out

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<v Speaker 1>corporate real estate, like might it not come back fully

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<v Speaker 1>post pandemic and so what happens? So I just wonder,

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<v Speaker 1>is there's something potentially that could still happen. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that actually that that fun the Blackstone Fund

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<v Speaker 1>has actually been doing pretty well. So um uh, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not like you know, people are pulling the money out

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<v Speaker 1>because they um because they weren't getting performance yet losing

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<v Speaker 1>money that they either they're pulling out to take profits

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<v Speaker 1>or or they're pulling it out because they think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe next year won't be so good as as for

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<v Speaker 1>a commercial real estate as the dividends that they've been

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<v Speaker 1>getting from that as as last year, and you know

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<v Speaker 1>that fun did have you know a rule saying how

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<v Speaker 1>much you could redeem? You know, So it's it's I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not sure it's a sign of like you know, financial

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<v Speaker 1>cracks are happening. Uh. I think it's more idiosynchronic. Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>there was a caveat in here that you made. When

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<v Speaker 1>when when does that caveat, if at all, come true?

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<v Speaker 1>What do we need to look for to make sure that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it doesn't up end the economy? What's the

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<v Speaker 1>first sign? Yeah? I mean what you know? I wish

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<v Speaker 1>I could tell you and right now I wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 1>talking to you guys right or I'll be talking to

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<v Speaker 1>you from a yacht right. We would welcome that with

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<v Speaker 1>the great Internet connection too, I bet um uh, well,

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<v Speaker 1>as we saw with the UK. I mean we're, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden pension funds at all places, right,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we thought, you know, these are supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>be rock solid, you know, all of a sudden that

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, these things can come out of the blue.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the regulators are doing their best to keep

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<v Speaker 1>an eye on everything, but um, it's hard beforehand. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's that Buffett saying, right when the when the tide

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<v Speaker 1>goes out, you see who's swimming naked? Right? Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when when when the interest rates go up, you see

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<v Speaker 1>who's sort of highly leveraged, and you know who who

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<v Speaker 1>who Who's caught with their pants verbal pants now so

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<v Speaker 1>to speak. So yeah, I mean mixing a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>metaphors here, but anyway, yeah, um, you know, still to

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<v Speaker 1>be said. But I mean, so far, so good. All right, Rich,

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<v Speaker 1>we gotta run. Thank you so much. Rich Miller, economics

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<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us via zoom from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d See Carol Master, Timsdanovich. This is Bloomberg Radio. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes.

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Since life expanded, expectancy in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States has declined two points seven years. It

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<v Speaker 1>is the largest since World War Two that declined. Black

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<v Speaker 1>Americans lost four years of life expectancy and Indigenous Americans

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<v Speaker 1>lost more than six In our next guests as we

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<v Speaker 1>can do a lot better, he writes about it in

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<v Speaker 1>a recent article for Bloomberg City Lab. We're very pleased

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<v Speaker 1>to have back with us. Dr Joshua Sharfstein. He's Igstein

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<v Speaker 1>for the Public Health Practice and Community Engagement and director

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<v Speaker 1>of the Bloomberg American Health Initiative. It's at the Johns

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<v Speaker 1>Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It is supported by

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<v Speaker 1>Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies,

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<v Speaker 1>also the co author of the Opioid Epidemic What Everyone

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<v Speaker 1>Needs to Know. Dr charf Stein this afternoon, joins us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Philadelphia. Dr Charfstein, It's always great

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<v Speaker 1>to get you on the program. Anyone who reads this

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<v Speaker 1>headline would say, Okay, that's just because of COVID, but

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<v Speaker 1>you actually arguing your peace that life expectancy would have

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<v Speaker 1>gone down even if we didn't have the excess deaths

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<v Speaker 1>that were caused by COVID. What's going on. Well, it

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<v Speaker 1>turns out life expectancy peaked in the United States and

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<v Speaker 1>and it's been stagnating and even declining a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>since then, even before the pandemic. UM. The pandemic obviously

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<v Speaker 1>is the major reason for that shocking decline, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the largest decline in life expecancy since World War One,

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<v Speaker 1>over a hundred years ago. UM. But it's not the

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<v Speaker 1>only cause. Another major cause are overdoses. More than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand Americans now dying as fatal overdoses. That's double

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<v Speaker 1>um what it was just a few years ago. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And then on top of that, we see a significant

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<v Speaker 1>increases in gun related suicides and homicide, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>motor vehicle crashes, which are up like since. So there

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<v Speaker 1>are multiple causes, but what they do have in common

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<v Speaker 1>is that they are preventable. UM. A lot of these

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<v Speaker 1>deaths can be prevented if we take some basic steps

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<v Speaker 1>which actually have a lot of support. And forgive me,

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<v Speaker 1>you're right, I've misread the largest since World War Two,

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<v Speaker 1>that two point seven years off our life expect expectancy

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<v Speaker 1>since nineteen very very significant. You know. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that I've done some work on And recently when

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<v Speaker 1>the u n UM in town and the fall, we

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<v Speaker 1>did a gathering to talk about noncommunicable diseases. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>so this is something you cover too, and we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about things like diabetes, strokes, heart disease. UM. This is

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<v Speaker 1>really the leading killer in so many different countries, and

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we all just kind of well, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a part of life, but it doesn't have to be,

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<v Speaker 1>does it. Well, Um, there are absolutely ways to reduce

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<v Speaker 1>premature deaths from cardiovasc disease, diabetes, and other noncommunicable diseases. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>In the report, we talk about the value of controlling

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<v Speaker 1>salt intake, and most of the salt we take in

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<v Speaker 1>is already in our food, it's not the salt we

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<v Speaker 1>put on with the salt shaker and getting the salt

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<v Speaker 1>down and that food could make a big difference. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's estimated saving fifty lines a year. UM. That's

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<v Speaker 1>my understanding. So it's UM, it's really UM important not

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<v Speaker 1>just to think of it as you know, eat healthy,

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<v Speaker 1>but how do we get healthy food to ourselves and

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<v Speaker 1>to other people so we can We've covered food. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to go to overdoses. You're the co author of

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<v Speaker 1>the opioid epidemic. What everyone needs to know. We know

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<v Speaker 1>that over the last few years, opioid overdoses here in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States of skyrocketed. UM what is the best

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<v Speaker 1>way to address this? So I think if to start

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<v Speaker 1>with what we know and what we know work and

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most effective treatments for opioid use disorder

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<v Speaker 1>our medications like methodone and bupanorpine. They reduced the chance

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<v Speaker 1>of death from any cause. Somewhere on the order of

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<v Speaker 1>these medications. Forgive me, but are these medications that people

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<v Speaker 1>take if they are unconscious like a what um you

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<v Speaker 1>know in through their nose or these medications of it

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<v Speaker 1>is not the lockdone is what is? What is resuscitates you.

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<v Speaker 1>But then the problem is if you still have addiction,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're still addicted, it is quite likely that you

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<v Speaker 1>will go back to um using opioids because that is

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<v Speaker 1>what your brain is really compelling you to do. So

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<v Speaker 1>what U A pupernorphine and methodone do is really addressed

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<v Speaker 1>that craving and people say, aha, I can be myself again.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember one person who we interviewed. He said, I

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<v Speaker 1>felt like I was married to heroin until I got

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<v Speaker 1>on treatment with methodone and then I could get a divorce.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought only suicide would be my own. That was

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:35.280
<v Speaker 1>the only way to get away. But it really addresses

0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:38.680
<v Speaker 1>the problem in the brain from addiction, really helps people

0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:43.320
<v Speaker 1>put their lives back together and dramatically reduces the risk

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:47.120
<v Speaker 1>of overdose deaths. And unfortunately, if you were then one

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.520
<v Speaker 1>in five people with opius used to sort of actually

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:53.160
<v Speaker 1>get these medicines, many places don't offer them. Many emergency

0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.360
<v Speaker 1>departments to fight evidence that starting treatment in the emergency

0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:01.360
<v Speaker 1>department will double the success staying in treetment it one month,

0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.800
<v Speaker 1>and that was a very well designed, randomized controlled child.

0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.959
<v Speaker 1>Despite that evidence, a lot of places don't offer it.

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 1>So we say, look, let's make that the standard of

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.880
<v Speaker 1>care not just an emergency department, but also in jails

0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>and prisons, where people can get started on treatment and

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.120
<v Speaker 1>not only dramatically reduced the chance they'll die when they

0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.760
<v Speaker 1>leave detention, but also dramatically reduced the chance they'll commit

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.199
<v Speaker 1>another crime associated very clearly with lower risit of it.

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 1>Can we talk about gun shootings and full transparency. We

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.840
<v Speaker 1>know Michael R. Bloomberg very dominant when it comes to

0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:37.600
<v Speaker 1>gun violence prevention, and he established every Town for Gun Safety,

0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:41.959
<v Speaker 1>the largest advocacy group back in and has donated money

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.640
<v Speaker 1>to it. Of course. Michael Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg

0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.840
<v Speaker 1>LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. But gun shootings, it's kind of

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 1>almost sad that I don't know that we're getting used

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.360
<v Speaker 1>to it, but it just feels like gun shootings are very,

0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:56.720
<v Speaker 1>very commonplace in the United States. That's another big reason

0:13:56.760 --> 0:14:02.080
<v Speaker 1>why life expectancy has gone down. That's right, forty seven

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:06.640
<v Speaker 1>thousand gun related suicides and homicides UM and UH, they

0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 1>are preventable, and there are particular policies that really do work,

0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.000
<v Speaker 1>and some of them have been adopted by states across

0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 1>the political spectrum. I remember after the Parkland shooting. UM,

0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>there was a lot of cynicism. People said, well, we've

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:23.800
<v Speaker 1>seen this movie before, nothing's going to change. But those

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.240
<v Speaker 1>young people got involved, and before you know it, a

0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>very red state, Florida pass the law called Extreme Risk

0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Protection Orders, basically making it possible for people to um

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:40.360
<v Speaker 1>temporarily lose access to their guns if they're behaving dangerously

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.040
<v Speaker 1>and are a risk of themselves or others. And that

0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.720
<v Speaker 1>was passed in Florida, and those laws indicates for every

0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:49.960
<v Speaker 1>evidence so far, for every ten to twenty of those

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:54.160
<v Speaker 1>orders issued in temporary removals of guns happening, a suicide

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 1>is prevented. And there are many examples of people who

0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 1>were um potentially going to kill someone else or even

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 1>mass shootings whom this was a tool that kept everybody safe. Um.

0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.600
<v Speaker 1>Those laws are in nineteen states, in the District of Columbia.

0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Now our report says, let's let's put them everywhere. And

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:17.160
<v Speaker 1>in fact, Congress in its incredible you know gun legislation.

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>I say incredible because people didn't think anything with hath

0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 1>actually provided money to help implement these laws, and good

0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 1>implementation of these laws where people know how to use them,

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 1>really matters in preventing those suicides and homicides. The other

0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.800
<v Speaker 1>policy that we write about has a lot of evidence

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:37.480
<v Speaker 1>behind that, and that's requiring a permit to get a firearm.

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Um it's called permits to purchase. And those laws are

0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:44.400
<v Speaker 1>associated with fewer suicides, fewer homicides, and fewer mass shodes.

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 1>What about when it comes to policies around driving, because

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 1>motor vehicle deaths are another reason why we see a

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.600
<v Speaker 1>decline in life expectancy. You argue that these are preventable.

0:15:56.080 --> 0:16:01.320
<v Speaker 1>How do cities and states prevent these? Yeah, they they

0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 1>they really are preventable, and there are different kinds of strategies.

0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.120
<v Speaker 1>One of them that we mentioned in the report is

0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:14.600
<v Speaker 1>additional technology to keep people who are um inebriated from driving.

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:18.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, reducing drunk driving UM is really important because

0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.040
<v Speaker 1>it's responsible for so many deaths on the road. And

0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:26.200
<v Speaker 1>right now there is um work to create new technology

0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.640
<v Speaker 1>and cars that keeps people from driving who are drunk.

0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:31.800
<v Speaker 1>And if if people can roll up their sleeves and

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.760
<v Speaker 1>get that technology to work, that could be very impactful.

0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.680
<v Speaker 1>The other kind of solution we talked about is redesigned

0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 1>looking for where those crashes are happening. You know, when

0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:46.000
<v Speaker 1>you see multiple little memorials on a particular corner, someone

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.840
<v Speaker 1>has to ask, you know, or a particular bend in

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 1>the road, like is something wrong with the road? You know?

0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 1>And when you redesign to make things safe for pedestrians,

0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 1>safer for bicyclists, then you actually do see if you

0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:03.480
<v Speaker 1>are motor vehicle related fatalities, and that can be a

0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.840
<v Speaker 1>real strategy for reducing seemed that and I should be

0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:11.080
<v Speaker 1>again full disclosure that Bloomberg Philanthropies has also been working

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.240
<v Speaker 1>to save lives and reduced industries injuries, I should say,

0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:17.119
<v Speaker 1>from traffic crashes. Um. And they've been doing this around

0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:19.639
<v Speaker 1>the world. Dr josh H. Charstein, thank you so much.

0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.320
<v Speaker 1>Fi Stein for public health and practice and community engagement

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:26.560
<v Speaker 1>at John's Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He is

0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:30.520
<v Speaker 1>also director of the Bloomberg American Health Initiative, also at

0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:34.560
<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins. Joining us on the phone in Philadelphia, you're

0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.400
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The new Wisha

0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:45.359
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week is out in this week's issue has

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:47.680
<v Speaker 1>at least a bit of good news for readers and listeners.

0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:51.119
<v Speaker 1>It's the ninth annual Good Business issue, featuring subjects from

0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.879
<v Speaker 1>tackling inequality to saving the planet with more sustainable practices.

0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:58.639
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week Solutions and Strategy Senior Editor Rebecca Penty

0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:02.679
<v Speaker 1>oversees the issue. She joined us on the phone from London. Rebecca,

0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 1>I want to get to some of the stories in

0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:06.080
<v Speaker 1>just a second, especially the cover story. It's close to

0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:09.800
<v Speaker 1>my heart because I'm a subscriber to Misfits Market. But

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.439
<v Speaker 1>let's talk a little bit about your thinking behind the

0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:16.320
<v Speaker 1>issue and how you approach it this year. Yeah, So,

0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.639
<v Speaker 1>I think every year we're we're looking for uplifting stories

0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.520
<v Speaker 1>to tell about how business can be a force for

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 1>good in the world, um, which which isn't always something

0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:28.119
<v Speaker 1>people think about. I mean often times people think that

0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.560
<v Speaker 1>CEO is just out to make a quick book or

0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:34.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, thinking about shareholder returns as being the b

0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:38.400
<v Speaker 1>l end All. And I think this year our issue

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:42.200
<v Speaker 1>is landing at a time that's just perfect because we've

0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:45.040
<v Speaker 1>got inflation throwing, We've got you know, job cuts that

0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:48.000
<v Speaker 1>are starting to trickle through, and we've got some skepticism

0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:52.760
<v Speaker 1>out there about E s G investing and most recently,

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, whether CEO philanthropists really are all they're cracked

0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.920
<v Speaker 1>up to be, you know, the case of STX crumbling

0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:05.960
<v Speaker 1>and sambankment freeds, effective altruism movement, um, you know, really

0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:10.160
<v Speaker 1>becoming changed. So I think the issue is really timed

0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:15.919
<v Speaker 1>well in providing readers with some uplifting stories about people

0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:20.160
<v Speaker 1>about leaders who actually are doing some really positive work

0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:22.880
<v Speaker 1>and deserves the attention. All right, Well, let's talk about

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:24.960
<v Speaker 1>one of those leaders, and that is the leader at

0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.600
<v Speaker 1>Misfits Market, and that is the cover story tell us

0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:30.080
<v Speaker 1>about this. I'm not familiar with him, but Tim says

0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.040
<v Speaker 1>he's a pretty active I tell you, I got to

0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:34.960
<v Speaker 1>tell you, Rebecca, I was exactly the person you described

0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.320
<v Speaker 1>in this story. We didn't subscribe until lockdown hit and

0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.480
<v Speaker 1>that's when we know thanks to the story, uh, Misfits

0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:44.960
<v Speaker 1>went into overdrive. And I remember getting an email from

0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.960
<v Speaker 1>them saying, Hey, you're not the only one. We are overwhelmed.

0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:49.560
<v Speaker 1>You're on a wait list, but we'll try to get

0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 1>you in. I think that's when a lot of people

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:55.200
<v Speaker 1>started subscribing to online groceries. It's the same for me,

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:58.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, was when I when I started as well

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 1>in London. And this is a really fun story about

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:05.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, a founder who is now thirty years old.

0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:08.959
<v Speaker 1>UM the son of immigrants from India, and you know,

0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.840
<v Speaker 1>his parents taught him the value of not wasting food

0:20:13.080 --> 0:20:16.240
<v Speaker 1>about you know, eating eating. One of the anecdotes is

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 1>his parents would let him throw an apple away until

0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 1>he'd eaten all the flesh around the core. And so

0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:27.760
<v Speaker 1>he started this Philadelphia based online grocer in and you

0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 1>know he was talking odd ball shaped fruit of fruits

0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:35.320
<v Speaker 1>and vegetables, you know, things that read are too big

0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:39.840
<v Speaker 1>or odd shaped that the grocery stores wouldn't sell. UM

0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:42.399
<v Speaker 1>in his living room with his apartment that he shared

0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:45.560
<v Speaker 1>with his future wife, and it really grew from there.

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.880
<v Speaker 1>And soft Bank as an investor, they've got and he's

0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:52.119
<v Speaker 1>got five million adventure capital funding and he's taken this

0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:55.000
<v Speaker 1>thing national and that means, you know, a lot of

0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 1>growing pains, a lot of trying to sort out how

0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:00.320
<v Speaker 1>does he stick to that mission of providing people with

0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:05.200
<v Speaker 1>organic you know, UM produce, trying to trying to keep

0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:09.320
<v Speaker 1>food out of the trash, UM with also trying to

0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:14.320
<v Speaker 1>meet that those nationally sourcing all of the supply and

0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 1>and providing customers with things that they want because people

0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:20.000
<v Speaker 1>are counting on being able to order what they want

0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:21.920
<v Speaker 1>when they want, and that doesn't always line up with

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:26.080
<v Speaker 1>UM dealing with food that would otherwise end up in waste. Rebecca,

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:27.399
<v Speaker 1>as we said, this is one of the stories that

0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:30.520
<v Speaker 1>makes up the cover, if you will, in the cover

0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:32.840
<v Speaker 1>theme of good business. But I do wonder, you know,

0:21:32.880 --> 0:21:35.440
<v Speaker 1>when you talk about misfits, you know there's lots of

0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:38.199
<v Speaker 1>transparency and it does look like. This is truly when

0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:40.440
<v Speaker 1>we think what maybe E. S G should be, this

0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:42.720
<v Speaker 1>is what it kind of you would think it would

0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:46.040
<v Speaker 1>look like. Having said that, is the business sustainable? Is

0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:49.600
<v Speaker 1>it viable? Because it sounds like they're growing like crazy.

0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 1>I think that's the big question that the story isn't

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:56.280
<v Speaker 1>quite able to answer because they're just in the middle

0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:58.480
<v Speaker 1>of scaling up. So, I mean, I think some of

0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:01.159
<v Speaker 1>the risks that we point out is that they're investing

0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:07.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot, I mean the capital investment in terms of facilities, technology, people,

0:22:07.880 --> 0:22:11.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, just investing in relationships with all their suppliers,

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:17.199
<v Speaker 1>um and and it's a it's a famously scrappy difficult

0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:20.280
<v Speaker 1>space to crack because if you're going you know, if

0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:22.920
<v Speaker 1>you're going into the very urban areas, then it makes

0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:26.240
<v Speaker 1>it's easy. But if you're going to rural places, I mean,

0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:30.080
<v Speaker 1>the CEO acknowledges that they're losing money in some of

0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>their roots in order to just gain those customers. So

0:22:33.080 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 1>it's certainly a risky bet. And we don't have all

0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.160
<v Speaker 1>the information because of course they're not going to share

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:40.560
<v Speaker 1>everything with us, But I think it's um you know,

0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:44.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think also it's disclosing that not every single

0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:46.280
<v Speaker 1>bit of produce is going to be odd ball when

0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:48.200
<v Speaker 1>you're when you're growing that big and when you're trying

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.359
<v Speaker 1>to meet that's that's what I said. I said, we

0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:53.600
<v Speaker 1>really get something that looks funny. I mean, oftentimes stuff

0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:55.560
<v Speaker 1>is small. But speaking of solutions, there's a lot of

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:58.040
<v Speaker 1>stuff in need of solutions here. It is the solutions issue.

0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:01.080
<v Speaker 1>Healthcare is one of those things that needs fixing. John

0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 1>Tozzi has a story in the current Issue all about

0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:05.560
<v Speaker 1>how JP Morgan is still trying to fix healthcare even

0:23:05.600 --> 0:23:08.879
<v Speaker 1>after Haven, which was that thing that I tried with

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway failed. Yeah. I think this is

0:23:13.680 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 1>fascinating because it's our example of a really massive company

0:23:18.040 --> 0:23:21.680
<v Speaker 1>that is looking at it an issue that's really important

0:23:21.720 --> 0:23:25.680
<v Speaker 1>for society. Healthcare costs are just ballooning in the US now.

0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:29.720
<v Speaker 1>No matter how much employers throw at it, the cost

0:23:29.880 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 1>keeps climbing, and a lot of its structural. I mean,

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:35.679
<v Speaker 1>these are issues that are different in different countries, but

0:23:35.720 --> 0:23:39.320
<v Speaker 1>in the US in particular, you know, I mean, doctors

0:23:39.320 --> 0:23:43.200
<v Speaker 1>are prescribing medications that cost more money. Ensures are having

0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:46.439
<v Speaker 1>to pay more for those medications. So what JP Morgan

0:23:46.600 --> 0:23:49.040
<v Speaker 1>is doing. Is is something that others have tried before,

0:23:49.440 --> 0:23:53.879
<v Speaker 1>including JP Morgan previously with but they're trying to really

0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:59.160
<v Speaker 1>um serve their own employees on the ground and prevent issues.

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:03.040
<v Speaker 1>So they've got you know, clinics near their office in

0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:07.359
<v Speaker 1>Ohio and Columbus, Ohio, and they are trying to to

0:24:07.440 --> 0:24:09.880
<v Speaker 1>make sure that their employees are building relationships of those

0:24:10.240 --> 0:24:13.240
<v Speaker 1>medical professionals that they will go get seen at the

0:24:13.320 --> 0:24:17.080
<v Speaker 1>first indication that something is wrong and actually prevents those

0:24:17.119 --> 0:24:19.879
<v Speaker 1>big issues from happening. Kind Of glad somebody's working on

0:24:19.920 --> 0:24:21.360
<v Speaker 1>because I do feel like this is the big nut

0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:23.720
<v Speaker 1>to crack still when we talk about disruption, it really

0:24:23.920 --> 0:24:26.520
<v Speaker 1>still has to come in the healthcare space really quickly.

0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:31.399
<v Speaker 1>Thirty seconds. Rebecca faked chocolate. That seems like a crime quickly.

0:24:31.560 --> 0:24:35.359
<v Speaker 1>I know. I know when when our reporter who's who's

0:24:35.359 --> 0:24:37.600
<v Speaker 1>actually based in Madrid pitched this to me a few

0:24:37.600 --> 0:24:40.600
<v Speaker 1>months ago, I thought, really, what's the problem with chocolate?

0:24:40.640 --> 0:24:42.840
<v Speaker 1>And I felt super ignorant when I learned about all

0:24:42.840 --> 0:24:44.879
<v Speaker 1>the terrible problems with chocolate that I feel like I

0:24:44.920 --> 0:24:48.959
<v Speaker 1>should have known. But it's you know, chocolate is um cocre.

0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:51.679
<v Speaker 1>Farming is a huge cause of deforestation and child labor.

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:54.800
<v Speaker 1>So these you know, there are a few upstarts and

0:24:54.960 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 1>the one that we feature is called Win Win Food

0:24:57.400 --> 0:24:59.640
<v Speaker 1>Labs are based in London and they used for men

0:24:59.680 --> 0:25:03.240
<v Speaker 1>to barley and carib to produce chocolate and they're using

0:25:03.240 --> 0:25:05.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the same technologies that the vegan food

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:09.840
<v Speaker 1>industry uses to take those flavors that chocolate. Um, chocolate

0:25:09.840 --> 0:25:12.600
<v Speaker 1>is standards port and pieces out using other ingredients. Love

0:25:12.680 --> 0:25:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the issue. I feel like we all need a little

0:25:14.520 --> 0:25:17.200
<v Speaker 1>good business right now, and you guys give us so much.

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:20.920
<v Speaker 1>Rebecca Pentty, Solutions and Strategy, Senior editor of Bloomberg Business Week.

0:25:21.000 --> 0:25:23.600
<v Speaker 1>The Good Business Issue. It is at a newsstands, online

0:25:23.960 --> 0:25:33.880
<v Speaker 1>and always on the Bloomberg terminal. I'm broad macro journal now.

0:25:33.960 --> 0:25:35.960
<v Speaker 1>But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:43.639
<v Speaker 1>home please, I'll do the dravels. I want to drive.

0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:50.520
<v Speaker 1>It's good question, good drive. This is the drive to

0:25:50.640 --> 0:25:56.119
<v Speaker 1>the clothes well down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:58.960
<v Speaker 1>about seventy minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:01.320
<v Speaker 1>to count down the Thursday trade equities. As you heard

0:26:01.320 --> 0:26:05.320
<v Speaker 1>from Charlie, certainly kicking around, uh if you will, um,

0:26:05.359 --> 0:26:07.879
<v Speaker 1>But we are definitely off our worst lovels of the session,

0:26:07.880 --> 0:26:09.520
<v Speaker 1>but we're off our highs. But it's really about the

0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:13.080
<v Speaker 1>tech trade today. Those big name fang stocks, many of

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:15.600
<v Speaker 1>them are really outperforming today. Let's get into it with

0:26:15.640 --> 0:26:18.639
<v Speaker 1>Samir Samana, senior Global market strategist at the Wells Fargo

0:26:18.680 --> 0:26:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Investment Institute. Semeir joining us this afternoon via zoom from Charlotte,

0:26:22.000 --> 0:26:23.959
<v Speaker 1>North Carolina. Semir, it's good to have you back with us.

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:27.280
<v Speaker 1>How are you, I'm good, Thanks for having me. Well,

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:29.960
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us. So how do you

0:26:30.000 --> 0:26:32.440
<v Speaker 1>take into account everything that we've seen over the last

0:26:32.440 --> 0:26:34.439
<v Speaker 1>week or so? After we heard from Fed chair J

0:26:34.560 --> 0:26:38.399
<v Speaker 1>Powell got sleuve economic data last week, Mike McKee described

0:26:38.440 --> 0:26:41.000
<v Speaker 1>this week's economic data is a bit boring, but you

0:26:41.000 --> 0:26:43.159
<v Speaker 1>know you can debate that. Uh, and you know what

0:26:43.200 --> 0:26:45.000
<v Speaker 1>we have next week coming from Fed Chair J Powell.

0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:48.400
<v Speaker 1>How's it all laying out for you? It just still

0:26:48.400 --> 0:26:50.439
<v Speaker 1>seems a little too Pavlovian. I mean, the market just

0:26:50.560 --> 0:26:52.880
<v Speaker 1>keeps nothing off the old playbook where it goes right

0:26:52.880 --> 0:26:55.280
<v Speaker 1>back to you know you guys mentioned saying you know,

0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:58.240
<v Speaker 1>non earning you know, small cap growth stocks, you know,

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:01.240
<v Speaker 1>cryptos having a pretty good day. Um, we just think

0:27:01.240 --> 0:27:03.239
<v Speaker 1>the regime has changed again. It doesn't have to be

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:05.800
<v Speaker 1>a major change, but you know, we do think going forward,

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:09.080
<v Speaker 1>cyclicals will do much better. Um. Honestly, we're a little

0:27:09.080 --> 0:27:11.600
<v Speaker 1>surprised to see oil falling, you know, even on the

0:27:11.680 --> 0:27:14.359
<v Speaker 1>day when it seems like there's some supply disruptions. Um.

0:27:14.400 --> 0:27:16.159
<v Speaker 1>And we continue like that sector quite a bit. So

0:27:16.200 --> 0:27:19.600
<v Speaker 1>there are pockets of value that investors can take advantage

0:27:19.640 --> 0:27:21.640
<v Speaker 1>up to play kind of the environment we see over

0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>next year, but we don't think it's going to be

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>led by by those growth stocks. Interesting having said that, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon,

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Meta or all some of your outperformers in today's session,

0:27:33.320 --> 0:27:35.480
<v Speaker 1>Met alone, and I know it's been beaten down, but

0:27:35.520 --> 0:27:40.040
<v Speaker 1>it's up from early November. You've got Amazon up about

0:27:40.040 --> 0:27:45.880
<v Speaker 1>fift since early November. Microsoft's since early November. And these

0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:48.439
<v Speaker 1>are obviously why you're seeing certainly the Nasdaq one hundred

0:27:48.480 --> 0:27:53.000
<v Speaker 1>outperformed today. Um, these are these names are areas that

0:27:53.040 --> 0:27:55.280
<v Speaker 1>you would bet on. It sounds like no when you

0:27:55.440 --> 0:27:58.920
<v Speaker 1>when you say that you're not really into growth. So

0:27:59.119 --> 0:28:02.040
<v Speaker 1>we like technology. So if you know, too often it

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:05.240
<v Speaker 1>seems like information technology, consumer discretionary and camp services kind

0:28:05.240 --> 0:28:07.080
<v Speaker 1>of get lumped together and what I will call the

0:28:07.160 --> 0:28:11.680
<v Speaker 1>growth trade. UM we like information technology, we like UM

0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 1>camp services, well, parts of camp services were neutral there

0:28:15.560 --> 0:28:18.840
<v Speaker 1>and the part that we would probably avoid is consumer discretionary. Right.

0:28:18.840 --> 0:28:21.600
<v Speaker 1>That's where you've got a large electronic vehicle maker and

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:23.960
<v Speaker 1>you've got a large e commerce company which you know

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:27.000
<v Speaker 1>aren't consumer centric is they used to be? Now they're

0:28:27.000 --> 0:28:28.879
<v Speaker 1>more part of this growth trade. And I think the

0:28:28.920 --> 0:28:32.680
<v Speaker 1>growth trade as a whole, it starts to bifurcate into

0:28:33.080 --> 0:28:36.320
<v Speaker 1>the more enterprise you know, specific names kind of on

0:28:36.359 --> 0:28:39.560
<v Speaker 1>the technology side, the true technology side, whereas the consumer

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:42.280
<v Speaker 1>probably struggled in the first part of next year as

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:45.440
<v Speaker 1>a moderate recession takes hold. Again, keep in mind, in

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:47.320
<v Speaker 1>order to get in place you under control, the FED

0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>probably has to has to make sure that the consumer

0:28:49.720 --> 0:28:51.200
<v Speaker 1>doesn't feel all that great in the first part of

0:28:51.280 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 1>next year. Let's talk a little more about that. What

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:55.120
<v Speaker 1>do you mean the consumer struggles just a little bit.

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:58.600
<v Speaker 1>What data is pointing to that for you? Sure? So

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:01.440
<v Speaker 1>we talked about continuing claims earlier on Bloomberg TV with

0:29:01.520 --> 0:29:03.440
<v Speaker 1>respect to how those are starting to kind of perk

0:29:03.560 --> 0:29:05.640
<v Speaker 1>up and get close to levels where they're higher than

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:07.719
<v Speaker 1>they were about a year ago. If you look at

0:29:07.720 --> 0:29:10.520
<v Speaker 1>the Challenger layoffs on your Bloombroock terminal, those are up,

0:29:10.520 --> 0:29:12.880
<v Speaker 1>I believe four hundred plus percent over the past year,

0:29:13.160 --> 0:29:15.720
<v Speaker 1>which tells me that those should eventually start to flow

0:29:15.760 --> 0:29:18.160
<v Speaker 1>into the claims data UM. If you look at l

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:20.480
<v Speaker 1>A I, that's down quite a bit, consistent with a

0:29:20.600 --> 0:29:23.360
<v Speaker 1>recession starting in the coming quarters. So all these different

0:29:23.360 --> 0:29:26.080
<v Speaker 1>things tell us that you know, again it's more time

0:29:26.200 --> 0:29:28.560
<v Speaker 1>you win, not if there's a recession. One thing I'm

0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 1>gonna ask you about the notes that you shared with

0:29:30.280 --> 0:29:33.080
<v Speaker 1>our producer Paul and and then obviously with US, is

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:36.840
<v Speaker 1>you're overlying thinking is it's not a time to broadly

0:29:36.880 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 1>buy equity, so not necessarily buy the equity markets. And

0:29:40.400 --> 0:29:43.440
<v Speaker 1>you point to the SPX resistance SMP five hundred at

0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:47.360
<v Speaker 1>the two hundred day moving average in UM and more

0:29:47.400 --> 0:29:50.840
<v Speaker 1>resistance at the trend line off the January record high

0:29:51.240 --> 0:29:55.760
<v Speaker 1>in forty area and not likely to sustainably break. Having

0:29:55.800 --> 0:29:58.280
<v Speaker 1>said that, we kicked off our broadcast at two pm

0:29:58.280 --> 0:30:00.680
<v Speaker 1>Moll Street Time with Abigail Doolittle, who as the markets

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:04.320
<v Speaker 1>for US, and she noted the dow out performance this

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:06.960
<v Speaker 1>year and it being above it's two d day and

0:30:06.960 --> 0:30:10.320
<v Speaker 1>above it's August high, and that it's hard not to

0:30:10.400 --> 0:30:12.560
<v Speaker 1>make the argument that the S and P is likely

0:30:12.640 --> 0:30:16.880
<v Speaker 1>to follow. Do you not buy into that? Well, I

0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 1>think the tricky part there is if you look at

0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:21.920
<v Speaker 1>what's driving the Dow, really it's energy, it's healthcare to

0:30:21.960 --> 0:30:23.680
<v Speaker 1>a certain extent, and then in some of those tech

0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:25.920
<v Speaker 1>names that we mentioned, and again that to us is

0:30:25.920 --> 0:30:28.400
<v Speaker 1>a pretty defensive playbook for the type of slowdown that

0:30:28.480 --> 0:30:31.000
<v Speaker 1>we see. So the reason we like those three sectors

0:30:31.160 --> 0:30:33.200
<v Speaker 1>is we think they'll be durable in the midst of

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:36.240
<v Speaker 1>a recession. So in some ways it's possible that the

0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 1>sp follows the Dow higher, but I would think the

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:40.760
<v Speaker 1>next move, probably for both of them, is probably to

0:30:40.800 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 1>the downside. Again, because I don't think markets, equity markets

0:30:43.880 --> 0:30:46.680
<v Speaker 1>more broadly reflective recession. You know, we were talking earlier

0:30:46.680 --> 0:30:49.120
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg TV about how the markets for the most part,

0:30:49.360 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, seem to be thinking of soft landing is

0:30:51.160 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>about the really only option. Um every time that that

0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:56.400
<v Speaker 1>kind of talks about, you know, interest rates in the

0:30:56.680 --> 0:30:59.280
<v Speaker 1>various outcomes. But you know, J. Powell and others have

0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 1>been very clear that it's still possible that you know,

0:31:01.640 --> 0:31:04.239
<v Speaker 1>a recession is possible next year, and we think it's

0:31:04.280 --> 0:31:06.920
<v Speaker 1>actually pretty likely. What do you need to see on

0:31:06.920 --> 0:31:09.560
<v Speaker 1>the SMP five hundred for you, it's for you to say, Okay,

0:31:09.600 --> 0:31:14.840
<v Speaker 1>now the SMP five hundred is broadly reflecting a recession. Sure,

0:31:14.920 --> 0:31:17.320
<v Speaker 1>So we've been saying price or time. So either you know,

0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:19.440
<v Speaker 1>get us to probably the first or second quarter of

0:31:19.520 --> 0:31:21.600
<v Speaker 1>next year, because again, you know, if the market is

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:23.600
<v Speaker 1>a leading indicator by about a quarter or two and

0:31:23.640 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 1>we think the recessions over by let's call it late

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:29.000
<v Speaker 1>summer of next year, then you know, again probably first

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:31.280
<v Speaker 1>or second quarter from a timing standpoint, makes a lot

0:31:31.320 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 1>of sense to us. Or the other option would be,

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:35.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you get back kind of to these

0:31:35.200 --> 0:31:37.800
<v Speaker 1>recent lows that we've been at, called thirty five thirty

0:31:37.880 --> 0:31:41.560
<v Speaker 1>six hundred, at those levels, we do think there's probably

0:31:41.600 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 1>some good risk reward. And what I mean by that

0:31:44.000 --> 0:31:45.840
<v Speaker 1>is so our YearIn target for next year on the

0:31:45.880 --> 0:31:48.719
<v Speaker 1>SMP is about forty four hundred, and so you know,

0:31:48.800 --> 0:31:51.480
<v Speaker 1>at those thirty seven hundred lows, you know and below,

0:31:51.760 --> 0:31:55.880
<v Speaker 1>you've got almost upside to the year end target range

0:31:55.880 --> 0:31:58.320
<v Speaker 1>that we have for next year, and it wouldn't surprise

0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:01.280
<v Speaker 1>me if there's only about five downside from those levels

0:32:01.280 --> 0:32:03.600
<v Speaker 1>in terms of it overshoot. So to have kind of

0:32:03.640 --> 0:32:06.520
<v Speaker 1>two to three to one odds as an investor, we

0:32:06.560 --> 0:32:09.600
<v Speaker 1>think is a pretty good outcome. All Right, we're gonna

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:11.440
<v Speaker 1>leave it there. Hey, Samir, thank you so much. Really

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:15.360
<v Speaker 1>appreciate your time today. Samir Samana, Senior global market strategist

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:18.840
<v Speaker 1>over at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. That's a subsidiary of

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Wells Fargo Bank, which really kind of serves the Wells

0:32:22.000 --> 0:32:25.720
<v Speaker 1>Fargo wealth and investment management clients. Joining us via zoom

0:32:25.760 --> 0:32:29.680
<v Speaker 1>in Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:32:29.760 --> 0:32:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com.

0:32:33.400 --> 0:32:35.560
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0:32:35.560 --> 0:32:38.960
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0:32:39.040 --> 0:32:41.360
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