1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 4 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all furnishing the power of Business 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 1: analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 7 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 8 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two 9 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: YouTube and now also on Bloomberg Quick Take. We got 11 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: more Fed talk we want to get to. Yeah, well, 12 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: speaking to the FED, it's not really succeeding when it 13 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: comes to its dual mandate. Yes, unemployment is low, but 14 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: inflation remains sky high. That's at It's monetary tightening campaign 15 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: is having a major impact in deflating asset bubbles that 16 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: just swelled during the pandemic. I mean, we're talking crypto 17 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: housing prices, tech stocks, and it's doing so without up 18 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: ending its financial system. Rich Miller writes all about it. 19 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: He's Bloomberg News Economics reporter he joins his via zoom 20 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: from Washington, d C. Rich. Good to have you with 21 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: us this ternon. So take us through the metrics that 22 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: you looked at when you talk about deflating asset bubbles here. Well, 23 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the one that topic topic the juror 24 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: at the moment is is crypto, right, and that's depending 25 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 1: on how you measured It's the market cap of crypto 26 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: is down about two thirds from like three trillion dollar 27 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: high not too long ago. Um. If you can look 28 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: at the Fang stocks, they're down about more than fifty um. 29 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 1: Nasac is down less than that, but Nasac as a whole. 30 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: But if you um look at the Fang stocks that 31 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: down by more than fifty cent, and the house prices 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: they're just starting to tick over. But you know, this 33 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: is the first time they've basically started the decline and 34 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: in ten in ten years, um, so all across the 35 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: board we're seeing sort of pretty weak asset prices. And 36 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: if you would you know, I told people, you know 37 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: that the FED was gonna raise rates so aggressively a 38 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: year ago, Uh, they would have said, oh my god, 39 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna see havoc in the financial markets. 40 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: You're gonna you're gonna see um firms going bust. You're 41 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: gonna see uh bank runs, You're gonna see etcetera, etcetera. 42 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: None of that has happened. You know, we we the 43 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: air is coming out of these bubbles. But so far, 44 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 1: so far, and that's a big, big provisor. So far, 45 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: it hasn't really you know, you know, shaking the financial 46 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: system like we saw in you know, the Great Financial Crisis. 47 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: It's interesting, I mean even looking at something like commodities, 48 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 1: they're down about uh from their high back in June, 49 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: and some of that's geopolitical rich, but you do wonder, 50 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: right like it makes you think might the FED f 51 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: O M. C. J. Powell and Company be able to 52 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: engineer that soft landing? Yeah? I mean it it increases 53 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: the chances, right um um. Obviously, if if you really 54 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: saw havoc in the system, you know, the the we'll 55 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: be heading into a recession, very clear really and probably 56 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: a deep one, and and the FED would have to 57 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: be cutting rates a lot. But uh, so far they can. 58 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: They've been able to keep raising race without sort of 59 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: causing so much havoc in the financial market that that 60 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: that they'll have to you know, stop or retrace. And 61 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: I've got a quote in there from Jeremy Stein, he's 62 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: an ex fed governor, and you know he said, you know, 63 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: if you had told me a year ago that they 64 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,079 Speaker 1: were going to be raising this, I'd say, oh my god, 65 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: you know, you're gonna crack everything up. But so far 66 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 1: we haven't. Is One of the reasons why this is 67 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: kind of okay is because it goes to what's referred 68 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: to as the wealth effect. When people's assets decline, they 69 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: tend not to spend as much money on large purchases. 70 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: But it's not huge though, right, Yeah, I mean I 71 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: think the economists say it's you know, for every dollar full, 72 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: it's only like a couple of cents off consumption basically, right, 73 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: it might be a little a little, a little bit. 74 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: But does that have an effect to bring down inflation. Well, 75 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: that'll that'll be one factor contributing to uh, you know, 76 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: a slowdown and consumption. And that's what the fit defend wants, 77 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: you know, consumption to slow, demand to slow so that 78 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: that's that's one of the one of the one of 79 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: the vehicles. But I guess the main vehicles are what 80 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: you'd say, you know, your higher buying costs right, so 81 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 1: housing um buying less you know, fewer cars, buying, fewer 82 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 1: durable goods. That would be the main um mechanism by 83 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: which the higher interest rates would slow the economy down. 84 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: But a peripheral periphetly we would also by by knocking 85 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 1: asset prices down and makes people feel less rich. I'm 86 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 1: gonna save a little more, I'm not going to spend 87 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: that money, right. You know one thing I want to 88 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: ask you, rich and I wonder if we can't roll 89 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: out some kind of financial blow up, which you you 90 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: point out your story because you know, one of the 91 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 1: things I think about this, I'm not saying this is 92 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: a blow but you have Blackstones Behemoth private credit fund, 93 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: you know, hitting redemption limits for the first time. It's 94 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: to your histories because you had investors pulling out some 95 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: fifty billion dollars from the corporate landing. But like I 96 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 1: saw that, and we continue to kind of figure out 97 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: corporate real estate, like might it not come back fully 98 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: post pandemic and so what happens? So I just wonder, 99 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: is there's something potentially that could still happen. Yeah, yeah, 100 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: I mean that actually that that fun the Blackstone Fund 101 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: has actually been doing pretty well. So um uh, it's 102 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 1: not like you know, people are pulling the money out 103 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: because they um because they weren't getting performance yet losing 104 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: money that they either they're pulling out to take profits 105 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 1: or or they're pulling it out because they think, you know, 106 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: maybe next year won't be so good as as for 107 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: a commercial real estate as the dividends that they've been 108 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 1: getting from that as as last year, and you know 109 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: that fun did have you know a rule saying how 110 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: much you could redeem? You know, So it's it's I'm 111 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 1: not sure it's a sign of like you know, financial 112 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 1: cracks are happening. Uh. I think it's more idiosynchronic. Actually, 113 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: there was a caveat in here that you made. When 114 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: when when does that caveat, if at all, come true? 115 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: What do we need to look for to make sure that, 116 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: you know, it doesn't up end the economy? What's the 117 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: first sign? Yeah? I mean what you know? I wish 118 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: I could tell you and right now I wouldn't be 119 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: talking to you guys right or I'll be talking to 120 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 1: you from a yacht right. We would welcome that with 121 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: the great Internet connection too, I bet um uh, well, 122 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: as we saw with the UK. I mean we're, you know, 123 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: all of a sudden pension funds at all places, right, 124 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: you know, we thought, you know, these are supposed to 125 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,679 Speaker 1: be rock solid, you know, all of a sudden that 126 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: that you know, these things can come out of the blue. 127 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the regulators are doing their best to keep 128 00:06:55,160 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 1: an eye on everything, but um, it's hard beforehand. You know, 129 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: there's that Buffett saying, right when the when the tide 130 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: goes out, you see who's swimming naked? Right? Um, you know, 131 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: when when when the interest rates go up, you see 132 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: who's sort of highly leveraged, and you know who who 133 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: who Who's caught with their pants verbal pants now so 134 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: to speak. So yeah, I mean mixing a lot of 135 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: metaphors here, but anyway, yeah, um, you know, still to 136 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: be said. But I mean, so far, so good. All right, Rich, 137 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: we gotta run. Thank you so much. Rich Miller, economics 138 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us via zoom from Washington, 139 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: d See Carol Master, Timsdanovich. This is Bloomberg Radio. This 140 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. 141 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Since life expanded, expectancy in 142 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: the United States has declined two points seven years. It 143 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: is the largest since World War Two that declined. Black 144 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: Americans lost four years of life expectancy and Indigenous Americans 145 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: lost more than six In our next guests as we 146 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: can do a lot better, he writes about it in 147 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: a recent article for Bloomberg City Lab. We're very pleased 148 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: to have back with us. Dr Joshua Sharfstein. He's Igstein 149 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: for the Public Health Practice and Community Engagement and director 150 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: of the Bloomberg American Health Initiative. It's at the Johns 151 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It is supported by 152 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies, 153 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: also the co author of the Opioid Epidemic What Everyone 154 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: Needs to Know. Dr charf Stein this afternoon, joins us 155 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: on the phone from Philadelphia. Dr Charfstein, It's always great 156 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: to get you on the program. Anyone who reads this 157 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: headline would say, Okay, that's just because of COVID, but 158 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: you actually arguing your peace that life expectancy would have 159 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: gone down even if we didn't have the excess deaths 160 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: that were caused by COVID. What's going on. Well, it 161 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: turns out life expectancy peaked in the United States and 162 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 1: and it's been stagnating and even declining a little bit 163 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: since then, even before the pandemic. UM. The pandemic obviously 164 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 1: is the major reason for that shocking decline, which is 165 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: the largest decline in life expecancy since World War One, 166 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: over a hundred years ago. UM. But it's not the 167 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: only cause. Another major cause are overdoses. More than a 168 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: hundred thousand Americans now dying as fatal overdoses. That's double 169 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 1: um what it was just a few years ago. UM. 170 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: And then on top of that, we see a significant 171 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: increases in gun related suicides and homicide, as well as 172 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: motor vehicle crashes, which are up like since. So there 173 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: are multiple causes, but what they do have in common 174 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: is that they are preventable. UM. A lot of these 175 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: deaths can be prevented if we take some basic steps 176 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: which actually have a lot of support. And forgive me, 177 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 1: you're right, I've misread the largest since World War Two, 178 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: that two point seven years off our life expect expectancy 179 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: since nineteen very very significant. You know. One of the 180 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,839 Speaker 1: things that I've done some work on And recently when 181 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: the u n UM in town and the fall, we 182 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: did a gathering to talk about noncommunicable diseases. You know, 183 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: so this is something you cover too, and we're talking 184 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: about things like diabetes, strokes, heart disease. UM. This is 185 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 1: really the leading killer in so many different countries, and 186 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: I feel like we all just kind of well, yeah, 187 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: that's a part of life, but it doesn't have to be, 188 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: does it. Well, Um, there are absolutely ways to reduce 189 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: premature deaths from cardiovasc disease, diabetes, and other noncommunicable diseases. UM. 190 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: In the report, we talk about the value of controlling 191 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: salt intake, and most of the salt we take in 192 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: is already in our food, it's not the salt we 193 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: put on with the salt shaker and getting the salt 194 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: down and that food could make a big difference. I 195 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: think it's estimated saving fifty lines a year. UM. That's 196 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 1: my understanding. So it's UM, it's really UM important not 197 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 1: just to think of it as you know, eat healthy, 198 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 1: but how do we get healthy food to ourselves and 199 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: to other people so we can We've covered food. I 200 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: want to go to overdoses. You're the co author of 201 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: the opioid epidemic. What everyone needs to know. We know 202 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: that over the last few years, opioid overdoses here in 203 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: the United States of skyrocketed. UM what is the best 204 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: way to address this? So I think if to start 205 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 1: with what we know and what we know work and 206 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: one of the most effective treatments for opioid use disorder 207 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: our medications like methodone and bupanorpine. They reduced the chance 208 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: of death from any cause. Somewhere on the order of 209 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: these medications. Forgive me, but are these medications that people 210 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 1: take if they are unconscious like a what um you 211 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 1: know in through their nose or these medications of it 212 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: is not the lockdone is what is? What is resuscitates you. 213 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: But then the problem is if you still have addiction, 214 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: if you're still addicted, it is quite likely that you 215 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: will go back to um using opioids because that is 216 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,719 Speaker 1: what your brain is really compelling you to do. So 217 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: what U A pupernorphine and methodone do is really addressed 218 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: that craving and people say, aha, I can be myself again. 219 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 1: I remember one person who we interviewed. He said, I 220 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: felt like I was married to heroin until I got 221 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: on treatment with methodone and then I could get a divorce. 222 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: I thought only suicide would be my own. That was 223 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: the only way to get away. But it really addresses 224 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: the problem in the brain from addiction, really helps people 225 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: put their lives back together and dramatically reduces the risk 226 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: of overdose deaths. And unfortunately, if you were then one 227 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: in five people with opius used to sort of actually 228 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: get these medicines, many places don't offer them. Many emergency 229 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: departments to fight evidence that starting treatment in the emergency 230 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: department will double the success staying in treetment it one month, 231 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: and that was a very well designed, randomized controlled child. 232 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 1: Despite that evidence, a lot of places don't offer it. 233 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: So we say, look, let's make that the standard of 234 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: care not just an emergency department, but also in jails 235 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: and prisons, where people can get started on treatment and 236 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: not only dramatically reduced the chance they'll die when they 237 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 1: leave detention, but also dramatically reduced the chance they'll commit 238 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,199 Speaker 1: another crime associated very clearly with lower risit of it. 239 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 1: Can we talk about gun shootings and full transparency. We 240 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: know Michael R. Bloomberg very dominant when it comes to 241 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: gun violence prevention, and he established every Town for Gun Safety, 242 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 1: the largest advocacy group back in and has donated money 243 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: to it. Of course. Michael Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg 244 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. But gun shootings, it's kind of 245 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: almost sad that I don't know that we're getting used 246 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: to it, but it just feels like gun shootings are very, 247 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: very commonplace in the United States. That's another big reason 248 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: why life expectancy has gone down. That's right, forty seven 249 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: thousand gun related suicides and homicides UM and UH, they 250 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: are preventable, and there are particular policies that really do work, 251 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: and some of them have been adopted by states across 252 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: the political spectrum. I remember after the Parkland shooting. UM, 253 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: there was a lot of cynicism. People said, well, we've 254 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: seen this movie before, nothing's going to change. But those 255 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: young people got involved, and before you know it, a 256 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: very red state, Florida pass the law called Extreme Risk 257 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 1: Protection Orders, basically making it possible for people to um 258 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: temporarily lose access to their guns if they're behaving dangerously 259 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: and are a risk of themselves or others. And that 260 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: was passed in Florida, and those laws indicates for every 261 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: evidence so far, for every ten to twenty of those 262 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: orders issued in temporary removals of guns happening, a suicide 263 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: is prevented. And there are many examples of people who 264 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: were um potentially going to kill someone else or even 265 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: mass shootings whom this was a tool that kept everybody safe. Um. 266 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: Those laws are in nineteen states, in the District of Columbia. 267 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 1: Now our report says, let's let's put them everywhere. And 268 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 1: in fact, Congress in its incredible you know gun legislation. 269 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: I say incredible because people didn't think anything with hath 270 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: actually provided money to help implement these laws, and good 271 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: implementation of these laws where people know how to use them, 272 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: really matters in preventing those suicides and homicides. The other 273 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: policy that we write about has a lot of evidence 274 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: behind that, and that's requiring a permit to get a firearm. 275 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: Um it's called permits to purchase. And those laws are 276 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: associated with fewer suicides, fewer homicides, and fewer mass shodes. 277 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: What about when it comes to policies around driving, because 278 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: motor vehicle deaths are another reason why we see a 279 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: decline in life expectancy. You argue that these are preventable. 280 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: How do cities and states prevent these? Yeah, they they 281 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: they really are preventable, and there are different kinds of strategies. 282 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: One of them that we mentioned in the report is 283 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: additional technology to keep people who are um inebriated from driving. 284 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: You know, reducing drunk driving UM is really important because 285 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: it's responsible for so many deaths on the road. And 286 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: right now there is um work to create new technology 287 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: and cars that keeps people from driving who are drunk. 288 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: And if if people can roll up their sleeves and 289 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: get that technology to work, that could be very impactful. 290 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 1: The other kind of solution we talked about is redesigned 291 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: looking for where those crashes are happening. You know, when 292 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: you see multiple little memorials on a particular corner, someone 293 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: has to ask, you know, or a particular bend in 294 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: the road, like is something wrong with the road? You know? 295 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 1: And when you redesign to make things safe for pedestrians, 296 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: safer for bicyclists, then you actually do see if you 297 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 1: are motor vehicle related fatalities, and that can be a 298 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: real strategy for reducing seemed that and I should be 299 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: again full disclosure that Bloomberg Philanthropies has also been working 300 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: to save lives and reduced industries injuries, I should say, 301 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: from traffic crashes. Um. And they've been doing this around 302 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,639 Speaker 1: the world. Dr josh H. Charstein, thank you so much. 303 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: Fi Stein for public health and practice and community engagement 304 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: at John's Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He is 305 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: also director of the Bloomberg American Health Initiative, also at 306 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins. Joining us on the phone in Philadelphia, you're 307 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 308 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The new Wisha 309 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week is out in this week's issue has 310 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 1: at least a bit of good news for readers and listeners. 311 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,119 Speaker 1: It's the ninth annual Good Business issue, featuring subjects from 312 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: tackling inequality to saving the planet with more sustainable practices. 313 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week Solutions and Strategy Senior Editor Rebecca Penty 314 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,679 Speaker 1: oversees the issue. She joined us on the phone from London. Rebecca, 315 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: I want to get to some of the stories in 316 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: just a second, especially the cover story. It's close to 317 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: my heart because I'm a subscriber to Misfits Market. But 318 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,439 Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about your thinking behind the 319 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: issue and how you approach it this year. Yeah, So, 320 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: I think every year we're we're looking for uplifting stories 321 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: to tell about how business can be a force for 322 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 1: good in the world, um, which which isn't always something 323 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: people think about. I mean often times people think that 324 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: CEO is just out to make a quick book or 325 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 1: you know, thinking about shareholder returns as being the b 326 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 1: l end All. And I think this year our issue 327 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 1: is landing at a time that's just perfect because we've 328 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: got inflation throwing, We've got you know, job cuts that 329 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: are starting to trickle through, and we've got some skepticism 330 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 1: out there about E s G investing and most recently, 331 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 1: you know, whether CEO philanthropists really are all they're cracked 332 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 1: up to be, you know, the case of STX crumbling 333 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: and sambankment freeds, effective altruism movement, um, you know, really 334 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 1: becoming changed. So I think the issue is really timed 335 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 1: well in providing readers with some uplifting stories about people 336 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 1: about leaders who actually are doing some really positive work 337 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 1: and deserves the attention. All right, Well, let's talk about 338 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: one of those leaders, and that is the leader at 339 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: Misfits Market, and that is the cover story tell us 340 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: about this. I'm not familiar with him, but Tim says 341 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: he's a pretty active I tell you, I got to 342 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: tell you, Rebecca, I was exactly the person you described 343 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: in this story. We didn't subscribe until lockdown hit and 344 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: that's when we know thanks to the story, uh, Misfits 345 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: went into overdrive. And I remember getting an email from 346 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: them saying, Hey, you're not the only one. We are overwhelmed. 347 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: You're on a wait list, but we'll try to get 348 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: you in. I think that's when a lot of people 349 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 1: started subscribing to online groceries. It's the same for me, 350 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 1: you know, was when I when I started as well 351 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: in London. And this is a really fun story about 352 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: you know, a founder who is now thirty years old. 353 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,959 Speaker 1: UM the son of immigrants from India, and you know, 354 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: his parents taught him the value of not wasting food 355 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: about you know, eating eating. One of the anecdotes is 356 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: his parents would let him throw an apple away until 357 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: he'd eaten all the flesh around the core. And so 358 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 1: he started this Philadelphia based online grocer in and you 359 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: know he was talking odd ball shaped fruit of fruits 360 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: and vegetables, you know, things that read are too big 361 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: or odd shaped that the grocery stores wouldn't sell. UM 362 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 1: in his living room with his apartment that he shared 363 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: with his future wife, and it really grew from there. 364 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: And soft Bank as an investor, they've got and he's 365 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: got five million adventure capital funding and he's taken this 366 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: thing national and that means, you know, a lot of 367 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: growing pains, a lot of trying to sort out how 368 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: does he stick to that mission of providing people with 369 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: organic you know, UM produce, trying to trying to keep 370 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: food out of the trash, UM with also trying to 371 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: meet that those nationally sourcing all of the supply and 372 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: and providing customers with things that they want because people 373 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: are counting on being able to order what they want 374 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 1: when they want, and that doesn't always line up with 375 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: UM dealing with food that would otherwise end up in waste. Rebecca, 376 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 1: as we said, this is one of the stories that 377 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: makes up the cover, if you will, in the cover 378 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: theme of good business. But I do wonder, you know, 379 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 1: when you talk about misfits, you know there's lots of 380 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,199 Speaker 1: transparency and it does look like. This is truly when 381 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 1: we think what maybe E. S G should be, this 382 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: is what it kind of you would think it would 383 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: look like. Having said that, is the business sustainable? Is 384 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: it viable? Because it sounds like they're growing like crazy. 385 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: I think that's the big question that the story isn't 386 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: quite able to answer because they're just in the middle 387 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: of scaling up. So, I mean, I think some of 388 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,159 Speaker 1: the risks that we point out is that they're investing 389 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: a lot, I mean the capital investment in terms of facilities, technology, people, 390 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: I mean, just investing in relationships with all their suppliers, 391 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:17,199 Speaker 1: um and and it's a it's a famously scrappy difficult 392 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: space to crack because if you're going you know, if 393 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 1: you're going into the very urban areas, then it makes 394 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: it's easy. But if you're going to rural places, I mean, 395 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: the CEO acknowledges that they're losing money in some of 396 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: their roots in order to just gain those customers. So 397 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: it's certainly a risky bet. And we don't have all 398 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: the information because of course they're not going to share 399 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: everything with us, But I think it's um you know, 400 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: and I think also it's disclosing that not every single 401 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: bit of produce is going to be odd ball when 402 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 1: you're when you're growing that big and when you're trying 403 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 1: to meet that's that's what I said. I said, we 404 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 1: really get something that looks funny. I mean, oftentimes stuff 405 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: is small. But speaking of solutions, there's a lot of 406 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: stuff in need of solutions here. It is the solutions issue. 407 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: Healthcare is one of those things that needs fixing. John 408 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 1: Tozzi has a story in the current Issue all about 409 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 1: how JP Morgan is still trying to fix healthcare even 410 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 1: after Haven, which was that thing that I tried with 411 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway failed. Yeah. I think this is 412 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: fascinating because it's our example of a really massive company 413 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 1: that is looking at it an issue that's really important 414 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: for society. Healthcare costs are just ballooning in the US now. 415 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: No matter how much employers throw at it, the cost 416 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: keeps climbing, and a lot of its structural. I mean, 417 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,679 Speaker 1: these are issues that are different in different countries, but 418 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: in the US in particular, you know, I mean, doctors 419 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: are prescribing medications that cost more money. Ensures are having 420 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 1: to pay more for those medications. So what JP Morgan 421 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: is doing. Is is something that others have tried before, 422 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 1: including JP Morgan previously with but they're trying to really 423 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: um serve their own employees on the ground and prevent issues. 424 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 1: So they've got you know, clinics near their office in 425 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: Ohio and Columbus, Ohio, and they are trying to to 426 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,880 Speaker 1: make sure that their employees are building relationships of those 427 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: medical professionals that they will go get seen at the 428 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: first indication that something is wrong and actually prevents those 429 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 1: big issues from happening. Kind Of glad somebody's working on 430 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 1: because I do feel like this is the big nut 431 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: to crack still when we talk about disruption, it really 432 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: still has to come in the healthcare space really quickly. 433 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 1: Thirty seconds. Rebecca faked chocolate. That seems like a crime quickly. 434 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 1: I know. I know when when our reporter who's who's 435 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: actually based in Madrid pitched this to me a few 436 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: months ago, I thought, really, what's the problem with chocolate? 437 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: And I felt super ignorant when I learned about all 438 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,879 Speaker 1: the terrible problems with chocolate that I feel like I 439 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,959 Speaker 1: should have known. But it's you know, chocolate is um cocre. 440 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 1: Farming is a huge cause of deforestation and child labor. 441 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: So these you know, there are a few upstarts and 442 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 1: the one that we feature is called Win Win Food 443 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,640 Speaker 1: Labs are based in London and they used for men 444 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: to barley and carib to produce chocolate and they're using 445 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: a lot of the same technologies that the vegan food 446 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 1: industry uses to take those flavors that chocolate. Um, chocolate 447 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: is standards port and pieces out using other ingredients. Love 448 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: the issue. I feel like we all need a little 449 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 1: good business right now, and you guys give us so much. 450 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 1: Rebecca Pentty, Solutions and Strategy, Senior editor of Bloomberg Business Week. 451 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: The Good Business Issue. It is at a newsstands, online 452 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal. I'm broad macro journal now. 453 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 1: But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no 454 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: home please, I'll do the dravels. I want to drive. 455 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: It's good question, good drive. This is the drive to 456 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 1: the clothes well down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, just 457 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 1: about seventy minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready 458 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: to count down the Thursday trade equities. As you heard 459 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: from Charlie, certainly kicking around, uh if you will, um, 460 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 1: But we are definitely off our worst lovels of the session, 461 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: but we're off our highs. But it's really about the 462 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: tech trade today. Those big name fang stocks, many of 463 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 1: them are really outperforming today. Let's get into it with 464 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 1: Samir Samana, senior Global market strategist at the Wells Fargo 465 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 1: Investment Institute. Semeir joining us this afternoon via zoom from Charlotte, 466 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,959 Speaker 1: North Carolina. Semir, it's good to have you back with us. 467 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: How are you, I'm good, Thanks for having me. Well, 468 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. So how do you 469 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 1: take into account everything that we've seen over the last 470 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 1: week or so? After we heard from Fed chair J 471 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: Powell got sleuve economic data last week, Mike McKee described 472 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: this week's economic data is a bit boring, but you 473 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,159 Speaker 1: know you can debate that. Uh, and you know what 474 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: we have next week coming from Fed Chair J Powell. 475 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: How's it all laying out for you? It just still 476 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,439 Speaker 1: seems a little too Pavlovian. I mean, the market just 477 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 1: keeps nothing off the old playbook where it goes right 478 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: back to you know you guys mentioned saying you know, 479 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: non earning you know, small cap growth stocks, you know, 480 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 1: cryptos having a pretty good day. Um, we just think 481 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,239 Speaker 1: the regime has changed again. It doesn't have to be 482 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 1: a major change, but you know, we do think going forward, 483 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: cyclicals will do much better. Um. Honestly, we're a little 484 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 1: surprised to see oil falling, you know, even on the 485 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: day when it seems like there's some supply disruptions. Um. 486 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,159 Speaker 1: And we continue like that sector quite a bit. So 487 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: there are pockets of value that investors can take advantage 488 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,640 Speaker 1: up to play kind of the environment we see over 489 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: next year, but we don't think it's going to be 490 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: led by by those growth stocks. Interesting having said that, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, 491 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: Meta or all some of your outperformers in today's session, 492 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: Met alone, and I know it's been beaten down, but 493 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: it's up from early November. You've got Amazon up about 494 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:45,880 Speaker 1: fift since early November. Microsoft's since early November. And these 495 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 1: are obviously why you're seeing certainly the Nasdaq one hundred 496 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 1: outperformed today. Um, these are these names are areas that 497 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: you would bet on. It sounds like no when you 498 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 1: when you say that you're not really into growth. So 499 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 1: we like technology. So if you know, too often it 500 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 1: seems like information technology, consumer discretionary and camp services kind 501 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 1: of get lumped together and what I will call the 502 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:11,680 Speaker 1: growth trade. UM we like information technology, we like UM 503 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: camp services, well, parts of camp services were neutral there 504 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: and the part that we would probably avoid is consumer discretionary. Right. 505 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 1: That's where you've got a large electronic vehicle maker and 506 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: you've got a large e commerce company which you know 507 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: aren't consumer centric is they used to be? Now they're 508 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 1: more part of this growth trade. And I think the 509 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,680 Speaker 1: growth trade as a whole, it starts to bifurcate into 510 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: the more enterprise you know, specific names kind of on 511 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 1: the technology side, the true technology side, whereas the consumer 512 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 1: probably struggled in the first part of next year as 513 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 1: a moderate recession takes hold. Again, keep in mind, in 514 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: order to get in place you under control, the FED 515 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: probably has to has to make sure that the consumer 516 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 1: doesn't feel all that great in the first part of 517 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 1: next year. Let's talk a little more about that. What 518 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: do you mean the consumer struggles just a little bit. 519 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: What data is pointing to that for you? Sure? So 520 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 1: we talked about continuing claims earlier on Bloomberg TV with 521 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: respect to how those are starting to kind of perk 522 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: up and get close to levels where they're higher than 523 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,719 Speaker 1: they were about a year ago. If you look at 524 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 1: the Challenger layoffs on your Bloombroock terminal, those are up, 525 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 1: I believe four hundred plus percent over the past year, 526 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,720 Speaker 1: which tells me that those should eventually start to flow 527 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: into the claims data UM. If you look at l 528 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: A I, that's down quite a bit, consistent with a 529 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: recession starting in the coming quarters. So all these different 530 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: things tell us that you know, again it's more time 531 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 1: you win, not if there's a recession. One thing I'm 532 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 1: gonna ask you about the notes that you shared with 533 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: our producer Paul and and then obviously with US, is 534 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: you're overlying thinking is it's not a time to broadly 535 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: buy equity, so not necessarily buy the equity markets. And 536 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: you point to the SPX resistance SMP five hundred at 537 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 1: the two hundred day moving average in UM and more 538 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: resistance at the trend line off the January record high 539 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: in forty area and not likely to sustainably break. Having 540 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 1: said that, we kicked off our broadcast at two pm 541 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: Moll Street Time with Abigail Doolittle, who as the markets 542 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 1: for US, and she noted the dow out performance this 543 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 1: year and it being above it's two d day and 544 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: above it's August high, and that it's hard not to 545 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: make the argument that the S and P is likely 546 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 1: to follow. Do you not buy into that? Well, I 547 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 1: think the tricky part there is if you look at 548 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: what's driving the Dow, really it's energy, it's healthcare to 549 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: a certain extent, and then in some of those tech 550 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 1: names that we mentioned, and again that to us is 551 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: a pretty defensive playbook for the type of slowdown that 552 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: we see. So the reason we like those three sectors 553 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 1: is we think they'll be durable in the midst of 554 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: a recession. So in some ways it's possible that the 555 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 1: sp follows the Dow higher, but I would think the 556 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 1: next move, probably for both of them, is probably to 557 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: the downside. Again, because I don't think markets, equity markets 558 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: more broadly reflective recession. You know, we were talking earlier 559 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg TV about how the markets for the most part, 560 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: you know, seem to be thinking of soft landing is 561 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: about the really only option. Um every time that that 562 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 1: kind of talks about, you know, interest rates in the 563 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: various outcomes. But you know, J. Powell and others have 564 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: been very clear that it's still possible that you know, 565 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,239 Speaker 1: a recession is possible next year, and we think it's 566 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: actually pretty likely. What do you need to see on 567 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred for you, it's for you to say, Okay, 568 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: now the SMP five hundred is broadly reflecting a recession. Sure, 569 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,320 Speaker 1: So we've been saying price or time. So either you know, 570 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: get us to probably the first or second quarter of 571 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: next year, because again, you know, if the market is 572 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 1: a leading indicator by about a quarter or two and 573 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 1: we think the recessions over by let's call it late 574 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 1: summer of next year, then you know, again probably first 575 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: or second quarter from a timing standpoint, makes a lot 576 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 1: of sense to us. Or the other option would be, 577 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 1: you know, if you get back kind of to these 578 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: recent lows that we've been at, called thirty five thirty 579 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: six hundred, at those levels, we do think there's probably 580 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 1: some good risk reward. And what I mean by that 581 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 1: is so our YearIn target for next year on the 582 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,719 Speaker 1: SMP is about forty four hundred, and so you know, 583 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 1: at those thirty seven hundred lows, you know and below, 584 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: you've got almost upside to the year end target range 585 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: that we have for next year, and it wouldn't surprise 586 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 1: me if there's only about five downside from those levels 587 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: in terms of it overshoot. So to have kind of 588 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 1: two to three to one odds as an investor, we 589 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: think is a pretty good outcome. All Right, we're gonna 590 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: leave it there. Hey, Samir, thank you so much. Really 591 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 1: appreciate your time today. Samir Samana, Senior global market strategist 592 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 1: over at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. That's a subsidiary of 593 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 1: Wells Fargo Bank, which really kind of serves the Wells 594 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 1: Fargo wealth and investment management clients. Joining us via zoom 595 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: in Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. 596 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 597 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two 598 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 1: pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us live on 599 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 1: YouTube now, also on Bloomberg Quick Take