1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,080
Speaker 1: We are very pleased to be joined now by Lawrence Boon,

2
00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: the French Secretary of Safe for European Affairs, former chief

3
00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,600
Speaker 1: economists at the OECD, of course, and Lawrence will come

4
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 1: to your expertise around the economy shortly.

5
00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:12,200
Speaker 2: But just on these wider questions.

6
00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:16,400
Speaker 1: We see from the US announcement that allies including the UK,

7
00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:20,520
Speaker 1: Canada and France have agreed to create this naval task force.

8
00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,560
Speaker 1: I wonder if you can tell me from a broad perspective,

9
00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,160
Speaker 1: how France's role in this, in this maritime task force

10
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,200
Speaker 1: is going to play out.

11
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:30,160
Speaker 2: What would you expect that to involve.

12
00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,280
Speaker 3: So Marnig and that who As you know, the French

13
00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,879
Speaker 3: navy had actually diverted some of drones that were directed

14
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,879
Speaker 3: at the Norwege and in the Reti a couple of

15
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,040
Speaker 3: days ago. And as you were saying, there are some

16
00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,920
Speaker 3: US Western Allies navy there and also Arambian and the

17
00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 3: idea is really to coordinate the action to make sure

18
00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,400
Speaker 3: that the Armors passage is safe.

19
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sure, and I'm sure that diplomatic action is continuing.

20
00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,760
Speaker 4: We are seeing, of course, trade impacted by this. As

21
00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,360
Speaker 4: our reporter was just outlining for us how concerned should

22
00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,360
Speaker 4: we be about the inflationary impact do you think, Lawrence,

23
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,920
Speaker 4: As we see shipping containers diverted, as we see oil

24
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 4: and gas prices rising on the back of this disruption, we.

25
00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:18,959
Speaker 3: Were in a quired positive situation in the sense that

26
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,880
Speaker 3: inflation has been slowing down for quite some time now,

27
00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:27,640
Speaker 3: and obviously if the situation is shortly dealt with, then

28
00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 3: there shouldn't be much impact on this and the difficulty

29
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,160
Speaker 3: would be arising if we have dysruption for a longer

30
00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,480
Speaker 3: time and if it starts disrupting production. But that's not

31
00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,120
Speaker 3: the case now, and we're still in an environment where

32
00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:46,160
Speaker 3: inflation has been desiderating and hopefully we'll be stabilizing at

33
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 3: lower level than what we have seen last year.

34
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,880
Speaker 1: Lawrence, Can I sticking with the economic scenes, then, can

35
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,920
Speaker 1: I ask you your expectations for the bottoming out of

36
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 1: the French economy or the Eurozone economy?

37
00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:02,480
Speaker 2: How weak do things get? Actually? Okay? And not that way?

38
00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,240
Speaker 3: As you know, the French government has been projecting growth

39
00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 3: of one point four percent of GDP for next year.

40
00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,880
Speaker 3: Things are obviously slowing a little down, but it's still

41
00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,919
Speaker 3: very healthy growth rate. We have the lowest and employment

42
00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,640
Speaker 3: rate in four decades, and I would say that the

43
00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:23,000
Speaker 3: situation is rather good. So obviously war is never a

44
00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 3: positive risk for any economy, but we're starting from a

45
00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:32,560
Speaker 3: very strong base, and I would be cautious in taking

46
00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,919
Speaker 3: in factoring in what's happening in the Middle East.

47
00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 4: How would you interpret then, the ECB's rhetoric around determination

48
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 4: to hold rates at four percent for longer the data

49
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,680
Speaker 4: You say there's relative resilience, but the PMI data out

50
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,400
Speaker 4: of both France and Germany in contractionary territory for certainly

51
00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,600
Speaker 4: for services and manufacturing inflation of course for the EU

52
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,600
Speaker 4: Zone around two point four percent has easy be overdone

53
00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:58,840
Speaker 4: it in terms of rates when we expect them and

54
00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:00,880
Speaker 4: when should they start considering casts?

55
00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:02,320
Speaker 2: Do you think so?

56
00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,400
Speaker 3: I'm sure you will agree with me that central banks

57
00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:09,520
Speaker 3: are traditionally quiet, cautious. But having said that, there's also

58
00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 3: something in the euro Zone which has to do with

59
00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:14,239
Speaker 3: them agreeing on.

60
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:15,160
Speaker 2: The fiscal wolves.

61
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:19,079
Speaker 3: I guess this would give some comfort to the ECB

62
00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,480
Speaker 3: that the policy mixes is okay and in line with

63
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,240
Speaker 3: them growth outs look and the inflation outlook, and hopefully

64
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:31,680
Speaker 3: we'll have positive message on the fiscal wolves either today

65
00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,520
Speaker 3: or tomorrow when there is a there is a legal fine.

66
00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,240
Speaker 3: There's been much progress. I think we've managed to strike

67
00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:43,200
Speaker 3: a deal where you have both the sustainability of public finances,

68
00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:49,520
Speaker 3: room for green tech and different investment, as well as

69
00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:54,280
Speaker 3: public finances trajectory that asks you know, tailor made for

70
00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:55,119
Speaker 3: each country.

71
00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,200
Speaker 1: And so you are confident that we will get an

72
00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,920
Speaker 1: agreement lawrence on that front, are you, because some are saying,

73
00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 1: you know, we might not get an agreement, we might

74
00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,760
Speaker 1: need to see an extension of the suspension.

75
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 2: Of the rules.

76
00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:06,720
Speaker 4: Now.

77
00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:11,280
Speaker 3: I think there's been a lot of discussion at various levels,

78
00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,880
Speaker 3: whether it's at the Economy and Finance ministers a level.

79
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,240
Speaker 3: There was also some discussion on the margin of the

80
00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 3: European Council last week, and progress have been quite impressive

81
00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:26,080
Speaker 3: to tail the truth and there will remain some tiny details,

82
00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,600
Speaker 3: but I'm quite confident that we can lend somewhere and

83
00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,919
Speaker 3: hopefully tomorrow afternoon.

84
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 2: We'll have new rules, which.

85
00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,920
Speaker 3: I like to remember everyone are designed to be better,

86
00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,760
Speaker 3: simpler and more, you know, designed in such a way

87
00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,680
Speaker 3: that each country can earn these rules, and that I

88
00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,320
Speaker 3: think is essential when you have to adjust public finances

89
00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 3: over the medium.

90
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,640
Speaker 4: Term okay, Lawrence, really appreciate your time this morning, getting

91
00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:56,839
Speaker 4: number of topics for us, giving us the French perspective

92
00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,760
Speaker 4: of COAURSE on those fiscal conversations, that debate that continues

93
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,960
Speaker 4: across Europe, and of course the reaction to what is

94
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 4: unfolding around the Red Sea. Lawrence Brune, French Secretary of

95
00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:09,800
Speaker 4: State for European Affairs and former OECD Chief Economist