WEBVTT - Josh Marshall & Scott Lincicome 

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds. And you're going to be shocked to

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<v Speaker 1>hear this Home Depot says it's raising prices. You know

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<v Speaker 1>why because of the tariffs. We have a great show

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<v Speaker 1>for you today, talking Points memos, own Josh Marshall stops

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<v Speaker 1>by to talk about Trump's unpopular agenda. Then we'll talk

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<v Speaker 1>to the Cato Institute's Scott Linscombe about tariffs and how

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<v Speaker 1>they are completely undermining our entire economy. But first we

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<v Speaker 1>have the most important stories that aren't getting the attention

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<v Speaker 1>they deserve. Mai, we're giddy with how terrible everything is.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's go that's kind of accurate. Actually today this is

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<v Speaker 2>really something. So I think of how much trauma of

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<v Speaker 2>my childhood was, how much I was policed and home

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<v Speaker 2>monitored as a kid because I was a bad kid.

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<v Speaker 2>But now, this is how the Republicans in Texas are

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<v Speaker 2>behaving towards democh product representatives. Is they want them to

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<v Speaker 2>get basically like whole passes to move around, and they

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<v Speaker 2>want them to have police escorts so they can't leave

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<v Speaker 2>the state. Because they really want to do this, stupid

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<v Speaker 2>Jerrymander that's going to really fuck them over.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, Okay, So here's the thing. Republicans in Texas are

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<v Speaker 1>stealing five seats in Congress. And they're doing this because

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump asked them to and because Governor Abbot thinks

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<v Speaker 1>that he can run for president. I mean, that's really

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<v Speaker 1>what this is. Okay. Governor Abbot is a Republican. He

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<v Speaker 1>knows the only way to inherit Maga is with the

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<v Speaker 1>blessing of Donald Trump. He thinks that somehow he will

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<v Speaker 1>become the inheritor of Maga, and so he is giving

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump five seats in Congress. Now, let me explain

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<v Speaker 1>to you why this is insane. Okay, mid decade redistricting

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<v Speaker 1>is almost unprecedented. Right, we have a census. The census

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<v Speaker 1>tells you what the numbers are, gives you the number

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<v Speaker 1>of congressional seats. There's redistricting around this. What happened here

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<v Speaker 1>was literally Donald Trump was like, I cannot lose the

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<v Speaker 1>House because then there'll be some accountability. I cannot have

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<v Speaker 1>any accountability because I'm having too good a time right now, airgo,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to make sure I keep the House. Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>did the only thing that they could possibly do because

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<v Speaker 1>they do not control state legislature, and they left right

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<v Speaker 1>that Texas has a thing where you can deny a

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<v Speaker 1>quorum if you leave this date. Now the special session

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<v Speaker 1>is over, it's August nineteenth. They came back. They're going

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<v Speaker 1>to fight it in another way. Do I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>the right move. No. I think they should have just

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<v Speaker 1>stayed out of the state until November. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>would have prevented this, and it would have made time

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<v Speaker 1>for Republicans to realize that a lot of them are

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<v Speaker 1>going to get jerry mandered out of their seats if

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<v Speaker 1>this if we open the door to this, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's too late. So now Republicans are going to

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<v Speaker 1>go along with stealing these five seats. One Democrat, Representative

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<v Speaker 1>Collier of District ninety five and Fort Worth, has refused

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<v Speaker 1>to sign these permission slips, and so she is going

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<v Speaker 1>to sit in the chamber. I understand that all of

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<v Speaker 1>this seems stupid to Trumpers, to people who are cynical,

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<v Speaker 1>but the reality is the only way we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>say survive this period is if people do brave shit

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<v Speaker 1>like this. Okay, if they say no, I'm not going

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<v Speaker 1>to do that if they say no. And so as

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<v Speaker 1>much as you may not like Representative Collier, this is

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<v Speaker 1>extremely important to do things like this. You know, this

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<v Speaker 1>is like a terrible moment in American life where things

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<v Speaker 1>are really fucking scary and she just says, I'll just

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<v Speaker 1>sit here. I don't know. I guess I'll wait till Wednesday.

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<v Speaker 1>So good for her, and we should support people who

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<v Speaker 1>are being brave, because most people are being fucking cowards.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. When I think of though, there's this weird gray

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<v Speaker 2>area where you're like, what the fuck is going on

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<v Speaker 2>with something? So a few weeks ago, Dan Bongino, no

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<v Speaker 2>friend of ours, kind of let it rip that like

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<v Speaker 2>he was pretty disturbed by what he saw on the

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<v Speaker 2>Epstein files, and it seems he might be on the

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<v Speaker 2>way out at the FBI.

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<v Speaker 1>Wait you think Bongino is not going to last at

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<v Speaker 1>the FBI.

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<v Speaker 2>I have to tell you one of the things, like

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<v Speaker 2>when we're always deciphering between the bullshit artists and the

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<v Speaker 2>true believers, there is this like weird thing that he

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<v Speaker 2>has like a little bit of both in him, Like

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<v Speaker 2>you know, he'll grift you for protein shake, but he'll

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<v Speaker 2>also really seems seems like his anger towards things fuels him.

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<v Speaker 2>And I will tell you I bought that he was

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<v Speaker 2>a little shook by the Epstein files. It seems a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of the reporting has set up.

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<v Speaker 1>Or he just makes a lot more money doing the podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean that can be.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I would love to ascribe meaning to Dan

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<v Speaker 1>Bongino's temper tantrums, but I just what there is math.

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<v Speaker 1>There is a thing called math. He has more power

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<v Speaker 1>and makes more money doing the podcast than sitting in

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<v Speaker 1>an office. So but either way, who are we to

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<v Speaker 1>cast aspersions at Dan Bongino? He may very I'll be

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<v Speaker 1>on his way out. We are thrilled to welcome Andrew

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<v Speaker 1>Bailey as co Deputy Director of the FBI. Bondie told

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<v Speaker 1>state run media Fox News Digital he has served as

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<v Speaker 1>Distinguished date Attorney General and also another Trump Lackie. Congratulations

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<v Speaker 1>to all who celebrate, it's going.

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<v Speaker 3>To be great.

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<v Speaker 2>Speaking of unsympathetic characters, at least the phonic just the

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<v Speaker 2>goal to show her space in public. She's thinking about

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<v Speaker 2>trying her Hannah as running for governor, which is really

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<v Speaker 2>going to go great considering at this appearance, I've heard

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of booze before, sometimes even when I've been

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<v Speaker 2>on stage, but nothing like.

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<v Speaker 1>This Marry Christmas.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, I think I was once booed for, say

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<v Speaker 2>a joke about who she's going to run against for governor.

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<v Speaker 1>At least Dephonic. I think I was there for that,

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<v Speaker 1>Yes you were. It was drowned out by relentless booze

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<v Speaker 1>when she's spoken a Memorial Day event on Monday. Now

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<v Speaker 1>she's not in New York, she's not in Brooklyn, she's

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<v Speaker 1>in Plattsburgh. When she gets booed. All right, I want

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<v Speaker 1>to say two things about this. One least Devonic thinks

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<v Speaker 1>she's going to be governor next year of New York State.

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<v Speaker 1>But Lee Stevonic may also get Jerry Mander out of

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<v Speaker 1>her seat because since Texas stole five congressional seats, there's

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<v Speaker 1>a very likely scenario where New York I mean, Cuomo

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<v Speaker 1>did set it up so they couldn't have partisan redistricting

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<v Speaker 1>and put a GOP judge on that panel. But there

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<v Speaker 1>is a world where if Hochel is worth anything, which

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not convince she is, but if she is, she

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<v Speaker 1>will redistrict those five seats, and my man Aleis Stevonic

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<v Speaker 1>will neither be governor nor a member of Congress. I

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<v Speaker 1>for one, would love to see it the same.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is really exactly that. You know, often we're

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<v Speaker 2>saying we.

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<v Speaker 1>Particularly other shouted trader and go home, and some attendees

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<v Speaker 1>yelled a Nazi. You don't want to be called the

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<v Speaker 1>nazi anyway. Continue.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, So a lot of the time we're discussing things

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<v Speaker 2>for twenty twenty five that came true. But this is

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<v Speaker 2>the type of thing that wasn't quite in there to

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<v Speaker 2>my memory at least. But I was like, this is

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<v Speaker 2>definitely gonna happen. Citizenship reviews now ask immigrants to show

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<v Speaker 2>positive contributions to the.

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<v Speaker 1>US, positive contributions right. Like, By the way, I'm so

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<v Speaker 1>angry about this because I've just you know, I have

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<v Speaker 1>so many friends who live in DC who have been

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<v Speaker 1>telling me about these horror stories about what has happened

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<v Speaker 1>under federalized DC, which is basically, there are a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of fat guys wearing vests that say police, and they

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<v Speaker 1>are chasing around anyone who's brown and who looks like

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<v Speaker 1>they're Hispanic, and they are chasing them down the streets

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<v Speaker 1>and beating them up and sending them in unmarked cars

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<v Speaker 1>to go to detention facilities to maybe get deported to

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<v Speaker 1>their own country and maybe get deported to Sudan where

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<v Speaker 1>they will die. This is so the idea that a

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<v Speaker 1>good moral character, like good moral character starts at home. Man,

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<v Speaker 1>we are not showing good and moral character. We are

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<v Speaker 1>in a country now where there is a militarized group

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<v Speaker 1>that has billions of dollars, that has no accountability, that

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<v Speaker 1>does not show its badge, that will not tell you

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<v Speaker 1>their name, that are plucking people off the street because

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<v Speaker 1>of the way they look. Like a year ago, this

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<v Speaker 1>would have been unprecedented. So if you're listening to this

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<v Speaker 1>like this is not okay, like none of this is okay,

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<v Speaker 1>we are in unprecedented moment in American life. And by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, good moral character begins at home. Josh Marshall

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<v Speaker 1>is the editor of Talking Points Memo. Josh Marshall, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you for coming on too fast politics.

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<v Speaker 3>I always love it here.

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<v Speaker 1>I was really mean, but it's because it's my birthday,

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<v Speaker 1>and also because Ice has arrested my friend's brother and

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<v Speaker 1>he is now waiting. He just disappeared and now they're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out if he's going to be deported

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<v Speaker 1>to his native country or is he going to be

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<v Speaker 1>deported to Sudan?

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<v Speaker 3>Wow, that's heavy, so.

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<v Speaker 1>He can die there? That is people in DC, because

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<v Speaker 1>DC has become federalized. And that means now that all

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<v Speaker 1>of the really scary people who Donald Trump has made

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<v Speaker 1>his militia are targeting anyone who looks like they are

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<v Speaker 1>not white.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, the thing with the Sudan thing. I've watched

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<v Speaker 4>that closely. But my impression at least is that, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>they're deporting tons and tons of people, and my impression

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<v Speaker 4>at least is that it's a pretty small subset that

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<v Speaker 4>is being deported to Sudan. But I haven't had a

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<v Speaker 4>sense of, you know, what the basis of that subset is, right, Like,

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<v Speaker 4>is it who do they pick? I assume it's something

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<v Speaker 4>to do with obviously they're from countries where there may

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<v Speaker 4>be some legal impediment or something like that.

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<v Speaker 3>But I don't have a But that sounds horrific.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, it sounds horrific to be deported to any

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<v Speaker 4>country that you've never been to before.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, But I also think and I want to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about this for a minute because I think it's so important.

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<v Speaker 1>Like we've seen these photos of these ice skies chasing

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the uber drivers, you know, the food delivery guys,

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<v Speaker 1>the deporting, the lady who worked at the nail salon.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, people been here twenty thirty, forty years. People

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<v Speaker 1>have been here as long as we have. Right, what's

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<v Speaker 1>the goal here? Because Americans have had the opportunities to

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<v Speaker 1>do these jobs and they have not wanted to.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and it's not like when certainly when I was

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<v Speaker 4>much younger, and probably when you were two. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>there have been times where you know, and certainly during

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<v Speaker 4>you know, briefly during the Great Recession, where you have

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<v Speaker 4>unemployment approaches double digits. Right, we've basically been in a

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<v Speaker 4>full employment economy as economists define it for a number

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<v Speaker 4>of years, you know, under five percent. So kind of

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<v Speaker 4>by definition, there's nobody else who wants to do this

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<v Speaker 4>job because everybody's got a job. Now, we know, obviously

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<v Speaker 4>some people don't have a job, but when you talk

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<v Speaker 4>about this gets into the technical economics of it, there

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<v Speaker 4>are not other people who want this job who are

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<v Speaker 4>not doing it.

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<v Speaker 3>And when you talk about the goal, I think people.

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<v Speaker 4>For understandable reasons, don't like analogies or kind of blanched

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<v Speaker 4>analogies go back to the Third Reich and the imposition

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<v Speaker 4>of Hitler's dictatorship. One of the things that happened during it,

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<v Speaker 4>A political scientist have a name for this, I can't

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<v Speaker 4>remember it exactly, is that it was fairly disorganized in

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of ways, and Hitler had a system where

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<v Speaker 4>he kind of relied on people to you know, be

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<v Speaker 4>self starters and kind of do stuff on their own,

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<v Speaker 4>people in the state in governmental positions to sort of

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<v Speaker 4>compete with each other to achieve his aims. And there

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<v Speaker 4>is at least something like that going on with Trump

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<v Speaker 4>in the sense that when you say, you know, what

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<v Speaker 4>is the point here, well, well, clearly one of the

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<v Speaker 4>points here is that Stephen Miller like literally went over

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<v Speaker 4>to Ice, went over to DHS and said, I want

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<v Speaker 4>three thousand people a day taken into custody and put

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<v Speaker 4>into the system for deportation. Now, there's clearly a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of people in Ice who want to be nasty people,

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<v Speaker 4>and there's a lot of polalization of Ice, but that

0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.760
<v Speaker 4>clearly created a situation where you've got to go where

0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:22.080
<v Speaker 4>the numbers are, and the numbers are people who are

0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 4>living law abiding lives and just kind of where you

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.439
<v Speaker 4>think they are, because they're basically long standing residents in

0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.800
<v Speaker 4>the United States, and they show up for their immigration hearings,

0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:32.400
<v Speaker 4>and they show up for their job. And that's why

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:34.520
<v Speaker 4>you have this thing of just you know, kind of

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.559
<v Speaker 4>regular people kind of doing their jobs and I shows

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.920
<v Speaker 4>up and grabs them. And you know, the woman who

0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.400
<v Speaker 4>worked at your nail slan, she's not there with like

0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 4>an ak right now. She's going to fight them off

0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:49.400
<v Speaker 4>right when they come. These are by definition, fairly pliant people.

0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 4>So that's part of it. But you know, you have

0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.240
<v Speaker 4>this mix of people who want to deport a lot

0:12:55.240 --> 0:13:00.520
<v Speaker 4>of people for sort of ideological and racial reasons. Also

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.080
<v Speaker 4>have a lot of people who want to punish people.

0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:06.760
<v Speaker 4>They want to see those pictures of terrified families and everything.

0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.079
<v Speaker 4>So you have all these kind of things going together.

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.000
<v Speaker 4>But you know, one of the things about the Trump

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 4>system is that you usually have that kind of you know,

0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:21.079
<v Speaker 4>chaos and disorganization, and some of that is that these

0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 4>aren't terribly competent or often very smart people.

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.280
<v Speaker 1>Are you saying they're not sending their.

0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.040
<v Speaker 4>Best, They are not sending their well, they are sending

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 4>their best, they don't their best are not that good.

0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 3>I think, yes, it's the way to put it.

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.439
<v Speaker 4>But another dimension of sort of trump Ism is they

0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:39.440
<v Speaker 4>don't like bureaucracy. They don't like people like, oh, you've

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.360
<v Speaker 4>been here for thirty years, you know how to make

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.440
<v Speaker 4>this system run. Get the fuck out of here. But

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.200
<v Speaker 4>what that means is you have this system where it's

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.520
<v Speaker 4>all kind of at the whim of the top guy.

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 4>So all these things kind of flow together and create

0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 4>this system with a lot of sort of predatory behavior

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 4>and malicious behavior and not only hurting people because you

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 4>kind of can't not hurt people if you're trying to

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.680
<v Speaker 4>arrest three thousand people a day. But because hurting people,

0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 4>as our Fred Sewer says it, you know, is the point.

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:10.120
<v Speaker 4>Cruelty is the point.

0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about Donald Trump's triumphant meeting with all of

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 1>the heads of Europe. You know, you're in great shape

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 1>when all of the heads of Europe, every single one

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.040
<v Speaker 1>comes to Washington. They don't have anything else to do

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 1>to try to get Trump not to be putin's stoode.

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Well it's sort of like you know, you know,

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 3>you know the shape you're in by who shows up

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:36.160
<v Speaker 3>at your intervention.

0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.640
<v Speaker 4>Yes, yeah, right, you know you know, you caught your

0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:43.240
<v Speaker 4>first year college roommate is there and you're like, wow,

0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:46.760
<v Speaker 4>thread here real.

0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:51.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, no, I mean, you know, it's so funny because

0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 1>it's like, I'm old enough to remember when Georgia Maloney

0:14:55.400 --> 0:15:00.760
<v Speaker 1>was the biggest outlier. Right, She's part of this neo

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.720
<v Speaker 1>fascist Yeah, so one of the bad guys, right, one

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 1>of the bad guys coming to Washington to beg Donald

0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Trump not to get rolled by Vladimir Putin.

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you're too You're too far gone here, dude, it's

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:15.560
<v Speaker 4>too much. It's more than I can accept.

0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:16.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 1>I like the White House. There's a podcast I listen

0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 1>to that is very access see and the woman on

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>it was like, wow, the White House didn't have huge

0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 1>plans for the Alaska summit. Oh okay, they didn't. They

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 1>just oh okay, they just went to Alaska because they

0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 1>just want to hang out with Putin.

0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the whole thing is pretty you know. On the

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.120
<v Speaker 4>other hand, there was this weird thing of like, you know,

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.800
<v Speaker 4>they did it in Alaska where you can basically be

0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:43.280
<v Speaker 4>sure that if you're not on the plane on the

0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.239
<v Speaker 4>you know, the traveling White House press love Alaska.

0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:48.120
<v Speaker 3>But it's not a big media State, right.

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.840
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's certainly not on the Air Force base

0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 4>where we have our sort of strategic bombers or whatever.

0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 3>And they did it on what in the you know,

0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 3>on the east.

0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 4>Coast in the US is going to be you know,

0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:02.440
<v Speaker 4>kind of late Friday after the hottest August day of

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.840
<v Speaker 4>the year kind of thing. So there's all kinds of

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 4>kind of weird like it that is kind of how

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 4>you'd kill a story. So I don't know quite what

0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:12.880
<v Speaker 4>that was about. But you know, Donald Trump doesn't do things.

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 4>He doesn't do things like lo fi, Like you're not

0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 4>going to hear like thirty years from like oh yeah,

0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:19.360
<v Speaker 4>he used to go over to soup kitchen and like

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 4>serve stuff.

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:20.960
<v Speaker 3>But no, he didn't tell me.

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 1>You'd never get it.

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.880
<v Speaker 4>He did that every Thursday evening, but he never you know,

0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 4>step out.

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, you're never going to find out he was

0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.560
<v Speaker 1>serving homeless people in soup kitchen. But I want you

0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.120
<v Speaker 1>to talk about this for a second, because I'm very

0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 1>suspicious about this Alaska summit.

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:38.280
<v Speaker 3>I think as you should be.

0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, and I think that this was completely about

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.880
<v Speaker 1>trying to kill the Epstein story and not about anything else, right,

0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:48.160
<v Speaker 1>Like this whole idea is like, and I'm going to

0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 1>win a Nobel Peace Prize, and so I'm going to

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 1>have all of these countries, these leaders from countries that

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.360
<v Speaker 1>are warring, and they're going to come in. And the

0:16:56.480 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>timing of this is just when the Magabas is fighting

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.720
<v Speaker 1>about Ebstein. But that's probably just a coincidence. I mean,

0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:06.199
<v Speaker 1>if you think about Trump, right, he's sitting there and

0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 1>he's going like it's August, which is the deadest time.

0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:12.600
<v Speaker 1>So the House is out, the Senate is out, I

0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.320
<v Speaker 1>can't try to do anything insane legislative way. I can

0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.840
<v Speaker 1>send the National Guard into Washington, DC, which is painful

0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.960
<v Speaker 1>and horrible and fun, but then there's nothing else to distract.

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.399
<v Speaker 1>So you could see where this would just work.

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 3>It's definitely possible.

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.240
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I I have lost it's so easy to

0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:33.960
<v Speaker 4>lose track of the forward pace of time and when

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:35.719
<v Speaker 4>happened or when another thing happened.

0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 3>But it was certainly my impression. It wasn't like we

0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 3>knew in June.

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.280
<v Speaker 4>Oh yeah, there's the there's the August summit, right, they

0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 4>just announced that on a pretty short notice. The thing

0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:49.800
<v Speaker 4>is with him is, as we know, these publicity events,

0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 4>it's always hard to know, like why did he do this,

0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:54.399
<v Speaker 4>you know, kind of publicity event.

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.719
<v Speaker 3>It's sort of like, why is a crack addict smoking

0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:57.440
<v Speaker 3>crack this time?

0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:00.200
<v Speaker 1>Because they're yeah, yeah, yeah, that.

0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 4>Is really the primary reason. And he's addicted to publicity.

0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 4>He's addicted to chaotic and kinetic moments where he is

0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:10.159
<v Speaker 4>the center of attention and his actions have everybody is

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.760
<v Speaker 4>reacting to his actions. So some of it is just that.

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.560
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, I mean they're trying to and to a

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:20.000
<v Speaker 4>certain extent, it seems like they've maybe kind of achieved

0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:22.080
<v Speaker 4>it with at least moment, at least for now at

0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 4>the epscene stuff. It's not you know, there's not she

0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:28.640
<v Speaker 4>hasn't been moved from one prison to another recently, or.

0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean she's she already got to the better prison.

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.600
<v Speaker 4>But yes, yeah, well she I mean I assume there's

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:38.560
<v Speaker 4>you could be transferred to like Tahiti, you know, I mean,

0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 4>you can the sky's the limit.

0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:41.160
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, it's hard to tell.

0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:43.320
<v Speaker 4>But again, it's sort of like, why is this crack

0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 4>addict smoking crack because he's addicted to crack?

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's right. I just think like all

0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 1>of this timing is kind of suspicious. So Trump said

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.320
<v Speaker 1>that there's some security guarantees. I mean, this is all

0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:58.400
<v Speaker 1>ridiculous because we know what Putin's going to do. Putin's

0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.439
<v Speaker 1>going to run right through this. And I mean, has

0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:04.080
<v Speaker 1>he even stopped bombing Ukraine? He's still bombing Ukraine.

0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:07.360
<v Speaker 4>No, I don't, there's no there's no stop in. I mean,

0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:09.960
<v Speaker 4>everything has continued, and this is I think, what is

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 4>I mean the irony of I was I think I

0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:15.720
<v Speaker 4>posted maybe on Blue Sky about you know, the sort

0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:19.159
<v Speaker 4>of the latest addition of how much gold shlock he

0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 4>has in the in the in the you know, in

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.479
<v Speaker 4>the Oval office. But it was actually a picture of

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.720
<v Speaker 4>his meeting with Zelenski, and I was looking at it

0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 4>and thinking, like, I hate to say it, but like

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.520
<v Speaker 4>this went better than the last meeting with Zelenski at least,

0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:34.760
<v Speaker 4>I mean, you know, they're kind of buds now sort

0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:36.280
<v Speaker 4>of maybe, you know, or at least at least to the

0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 4>extent he's not humiliating him. And the reason that that

0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 4>happened is that Trump clearly did get irritated that when

0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:47.920
<v Speaker 4>Trump made clear that at least stopping the fighting, if

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:51.399
<v Speaker 4>not bringing a treaty or a truce or something was

0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:53.639
<v Speaker 4>his goal. He felt he needed that, he wanted it

0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:56.399
<v Speaker 4>that Pudin responded by upping the ante. It's not like

0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:58.959
<v Speaker 4>he'd been holding back but doing more. You know, the

0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:01.080
<v Speaker 4>real action is over there in the east where you're

0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:03.920
<v Speaker 4>trying to take territory. But they also do things with

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:05.960
<v Speaker 4>They just throw a lot of missiles at Kiev or

0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:07.920
<v Speaker 4>something like that, and so he's upping the anti kind

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.520
<v Speaker 4>of humiliating Trump, and that whole thing.

0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:11.639
<v Speaker 3>Just remains, you know.

0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:13.960
<v Speaker 4>I was thinking last night that I think Iowa was

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:16.639
<v Speaker 4>one of the first people back in twenty sixteen to

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.479
<v Speaker 4>write an article basically saying there's something weird going on

0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.800
<v Speaker 4>with this guy and Russia. I think it was in

0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:26.160
<v Speaker 4>July twenty sixteen, and I didn't really have a sense

0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 4>of I didn't say and because I didn't know what

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:31.640
<v Speaker 4>it was. Most of the big stuff we didn't know then.

0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:35.680
<v Speaker 4>But they're just all these connections. They're just weird, weird, weird, weird.

0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:37.640
<v Speaker 4>You don't have like, oh, how many you know, how

0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:41.159
<v Speaker 4>many connections did Eisenhower have da Khrushchev or you know,

0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:45.280
<v Speaker 4>it was. It was so strange, and we've learned a

0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 4>lot since then. It's still what the hold he has

0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:52.439
<v Speaker 4>over Trump is still laffling, not clear to me and

0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:55.879
<v Speaker 4>baffling at many levels. But I don't know if you

0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:58.200
<v Speaker 4>or maybe your listeners saw there was a hot mic

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.960
<v Speaker 4>moment where Trump said in in the meetings yesterday, I

0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:04.520
<v Speaker 4>think it was Emmanuel Macron, but it's one of the

0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:06.960
<v Speaker 4>European leaders. You're like, hey, I think he really wants

0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:09.439
<v Speaker 4>to make a deal with me. It like sounds crazy,

0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:11.640
<v Speaker 4>but I really feel it. And it was just like, dude,

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:13.399
<v Speaker 4>what is your problem? I mean, like, it's like the

0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:17.040
<v Speaker 4>guy who buys a lap dance and things like the

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:18.199
<v Speaker 4>stripper's in love with them.

0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 3>It's like, what's going on with it?

0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:22.480
<v Speaker 4>For all the things we know and all of the

0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:26.280
<v Speaker 4>corrupt things, I think one day we will find out

0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:32.399
<v Speaker 4>we're going on there is a supplicant, submissive thing he

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.080
<v Speaker 4>has with this guy that all the other stuff may

0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:35.560
<v Speaker 4>be true.

0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:38.119
<v Speaker 3>It still would completely explain that.

0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:40.919
<v Speaker 1>It does not make a ton of sense.

0:21:40.680 --> 0:21:42.280
<v Speaker 3>Right, It really doesn't.

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:44.120
<v Speaker 4>There are a lot of things that sort of give

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:47.320
<v Speaker 4>you an idea why it might be kind of like that,

0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:50.359
<v Speaker 4>but none of them quite get you to the just

0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:53.760
<v Speaker 4>you know, sometimes someone's got a hold on someone that

0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:56.120
<v Speaker 4>goes beyond any literal thing.

0:21:56.280 --> 0:21:58.000
<v Speaker 3>It's just the other person kind.

0:21:57.800 --> 0:22:00.600
<v Speaker 4>Of goes weak in the knees and you know, they

0:22:00.760 --> 0:22:02.720
<v Speaker 4>roll over on their back and need to be belly

0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 4>rubbed or something.

0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Yes, with a fascist dictator, that's totally normal.

0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:07.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:09.800
<v Speaker 1>The thing I was so struck by was like, as

0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:13.880
<v Speaker 1>the child of an alcoholic, that you sometimes do all

0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.840
<v Speaker 1>this stuff to try to keep your alcoholic from like

0:22:18.040 --> 0:22:21.879
<v Speaker 1>completely killing themselves and the rest of you. And this

0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:25.359
<v Speaker 1>feels very much like that. You know, obviously it's not

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:27.919
<v Speaker 1>an alcoholic because he doesn't drink, but like, we have

0:22:28.160 --> 0:22:32.320
<v Speaker 1>all of Europe coming to America, coming to Washington, DC

0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:36.320
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that Trump doesn't do something which puts

0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:40.920
<v Speaker 1>the entire continent in jeopardy. This is our president. Yeah,

0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:45.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, like these people can protect their constituents from him,

0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:47.320
<v Speaker 1>but who protects us?

0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:48.080
<v Speaker 3>No one?

0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:51.399
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, no, that is true. It's funny. I was

0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:53.440
<v Speaker 4>just writing a post about a kind of a related

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:57.080
<v Speaker 4>issue that moves us in a slightly different direction, but

0:22:57.240 --> 0:23:03.119
<v Speaker 4>the basically the importance of the state governments. Yeah, because Trump,

0:23:03.480 --> 0:23:06.680
<v Speaker 4>because he has the executive branch and Congress, and because

0:23:06.720 --> 0:23:10.320
<v Speaker 4>the courts, the Supreme Court has chosen to interpret the

0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:12.439
<v Speaker 4>law and the Constitution in such a way that Trump is,

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:15.560
<v Speaker 4>within the federal government basically an absolute monarch.

0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:17.920
<v Speaker 3>You can do anything if anybody.

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:20.399
<v Speaker 4>You know, he's like Anthony in that, you know, sending

0:23:20.400 --> 0:23:23.600
<v Speaker 4>people to the cornfield right in the federal government. But

0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:26.640
<v Speaker 4>we have this quirk of the American political system, which

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 4>is the states which have their separate sovereignty that are

0:23:30.560 --> 0:23:33.280
<v Speaker 4>subordinate to the federal government but separate from it. And

0:23:33.359 --> 0:23:35.879
<v Speaker 4>for us who live in blue states, that is a

0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:40.000
<v Speaker 4>powerful bundle of sovereign power that I think we are

0:23:40.040 --> 0:23:44.400
<v Speaker 4>really we need the state leaders to understand that we're

0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:44.639
<v Speaker 4>going to.

0:23:44.640 --> 0:23:48.240
<v Speaker 1>Be fucked if the state leaders don't stand up for us.

0:23:48.320 --> 0:23:54.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean we are, We're already so fucked. But like Kathy, yeah, yes,

0:23:54.520 --> 0:23:57.440
<v Speaker 1>Kathy Hokle, if you're listening, like this is it man,

0:23:57.720 --> 0:24:01.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, Gavin Newsome, that's it, because he

0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:05.320
<v Speaker 1>is so ambitious that he will, you know, run over

0:24:05.400 --> 0:24:08.280
<v Speaker 1>his granny for a chance to run for president. And

0:24:08.440 --> 0:24:12.760
<v Speaker 1>thank god, lucky for the people of California, because what's

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:15.199
<v Speaker 1>happening in DC wouldn't be able to you know, they

0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:17.960
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be able to do it in quite the same way.

0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:20.520
<v Speaker 1>But I do think it is important to remember too,

0:24:20.560 --> 0:24:23.800
<v Speaker 1>what's happening in DC is happening in DC for a reason,

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:28.640
<v Speaker 1>right A, because cinema and mansion suck, and so they

0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:32.560
<v Speaker 1>refuse to make the mistake, and so the federal government

0:24:32.600 --> 0:24:34.240
<v Speaker 1>has a lot of power there. But the other reason

0:24:34.359 --> 0:24:36.399
<v Speaker 1>is because a lot of journalists and a lot of

0:24:36.480 --> 0:24:40.439
<v Speaker 1>legislators and a lot of people who could be brave

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 1>live in that city. Sorry, that's cool, Josh Marshall, thank you,

0:24:45.320 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 1>thank you, thanks for joining.

0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:50.240
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for having me as usual. I love coming on.

0:24:52.600 --> 0:24:57.200
<v Speaker 1>Scott Lindseicolm is the vice president of General Economics at

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:02.879
<v Speaker 1>the right leaning Tato Institute. Dude, welcome to Fast Politics, Scott, Oh,

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.200
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having Trade wars are good and easy to win.

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:09.200
<v Speaker 1>I was told by Donald J. Trump in the first

0:25:09.200 --> 0:25:13.000
<v Speaker 1>season of Trump Destroys America. Are we winning well?

0:25:13.119 --> 0:25:15.400
<v Speaker 3>Depends on how you measure victory.

0:25:15.440 --> 0:25:18.480
<v Speaker 5>I think if what you want is a giant tariff

0:25:18.480 --> 0:25:23.680
<v Speaker 5>wall around the country and a really amazing vehicle for

0:25:24.040 --> 0:25:30.560
<v Speaker 5>handing out political favors and boosting political power generally, then

0:25:30.960 --> 0:25:33.680
<v Speaker 5>Trump two point zero has been a massive victory and

0:25:34.359 --> 0:25:40.399
<v Speaker 5>surprisingly has resulted in much less foreign retaliation than last

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:44.640
<v Speaker 5>time around. So in terms of trade wars, there's less conflict.

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:48.720
<v Speaker 5>You know, China and to a lesser extent, Canada have retaliated,

0:25:48.760 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 5>but nobody else has smartly.

0:25:50.640 --> 0:25:55.479
<v Speaker 3>From the economics perspective, so if you like tariffs.

0:25:55.240 --> 0:25:59.680
<v Speaker 5>And you think that other countries not retaliating will somehow

0:25:59.680 --> 0:26:02.360
<v Speaker 5>boost your exports because you're a mercantilist.

0:26:02.000 --> 0:26:02.680
<v Speaker 3>Then you've won.

0:26:03.000 --> 0:26:07.960
<v Speaker 5>But from an economics perspective and the political perspective.

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:09.960
<v Speaker 3>We at CATO are anti corporatist.

0:26:10.040 --> 0:26:13.600
<v Speaker 5>We're not big into government croniism and corruption and all

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:14.360
<v Speaker 5>that jazz.

0:26:14.600 --> 0:26:16.240
<v Speaker 1>You're not big into corruption.

0:26:16.760 --> 0:26:22.320
<v Speaker 5>No, No, like a limited government, enumerated powers, and prefer

0:26:23.080 --> 0:26:27.040
<v Speaker 5>corporations to focus on their actual business and not lobbying

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:28.320
<v Speaker 5>the government for favors.

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:30.199
<v Speaker 3>If you believe in that stuff.

0:26:30.240 --> 0:26:32.840
<v Speaker 5>The tariffs are proving to be just as problematic as

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:35.360
<v Speaker 5>the dreaded economists predicted.

0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:37.880
<v Speaker 3>The fact is we now have an.

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:42.120
<v Speaker 5>Effective tariff rate of well above ten percent, up from

0:26:42.119 --> 0:26:45.560
<v Speaker 5>a rate of maybe two to three percent pre Trump.

0:26:45.560 --> 0:26:48.560
<v Speaker 5>Two point zero so back just back in January. It's

0:26:48.560 --> 0:26:52.359
<v Speaker 5>scheduled to go even higher, probably fifteen percent by the

0:26:52.440 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 5>end of the year. Because there's all sorts of loopholes

0:26:56.040 --> 0:27:00.760
<v Speaker 5>and exemptions and cases, investigations and others. And that gets

0:27:00.800 --> 0:27:03.920
<v Speaker 5>to the second point. We have massive amounts of uncertainty

0:27:03.960 --> 0:27:08.880
<v Speaker 5>and complexity that are being just injected into our trade

0:27:08.920 --> 0:27:12.280
<v Speaker 5>bloodstream as we speak. That adds cost. So you're not

0:27:12.320 --> 0:27:14.919
<v Speaker 5>only taxing people to the tune of hundreds of billions

0:27:14.920 --> 0:27:18.240
<v Speaker 5>of dollars a year, mainly American companies and consumers going

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:21.160
<v Speaker 5>to pay that, but you're also imposing these really weird

0:27:21.240 --> 0:27:28.159
<v Speaker 5>and visible taxes for the uncertainty and complexity and importers, customs, professionals, businesses,

0:27:28.240 --> 0:27:29.840
<v Speaker 5>institutional investors.

0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:30.920
<v Speaker 3>Are all like, I don't know what they have to do.

0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:33.840
<v Speaker 1>I want you to first talk about this because this,

0:27:33.920 --> 0:27:36.760
<v Speaker 1>I think is really interesting, which is there has to

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:39.520
<v Speaker 1>be a sort of layer of people who put these

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:43.399
<v Speaker 1>tariffs in, who collect them, who make sure that the

0:27:43.440 --> 0:27:46.400
<v Speaker 1>goods are paid. You know, it's no longer are these

0:27:46.520 --> 0:27:50.200
<v Speaker 1>goods drugs or something illegal. It's now like, are these

0:27:50.240 --> 0:27:53.520
<v Speaker 1>goods paying the rate of tariff that they're supposed to do?

0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:56.479
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, And I think the way to think about it

0:27:56.560 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 5>is pre Trump and now I think it's better to

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:03.399
<v Speaker 5>go back to twenty sixteen because that's probably the last

0:28:03.400 --> 0:28:06.719
<v Speaker 5>time twenty seventeen, last time we had a really relatively

0:28:06.880 --> 0:28:10.119
<v Speaker 5>clean US tariff system because then, of course Trump in

0:28:10.160 --> 0:28:12.840
<v Speaker 5>his first term had steel and aluminum tariffs in China

0:28:12.840 --> 0:28:14.000
<v Speaker 5>tariffs and some other stuff.

0:28:14.280 --> 0:28:17.359
<v Speaker 3>But pre Trump one point zero, you basically, if you

0:28:17.400 --> 0:28:20.399
<v Speaker 3>were a business, when you were importing a product, you

0:28:20.600 --> 0:28:23.959
<v Speaker 3>only had to worry about where it comes from and

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:27.800
<v Speaker 3>what the tariff rate is. And where the tariff rate

0:28:27.920 --> 0:28:32.240
<v Speaker 3>is was pretty easy for the vast majority of countries.

0:28:32.320 --> 0:28:35.000
<v Speaker 3>The only exceptions were some free trade agreement partners and

0:28:35.080 --> 0:28:38.400
<v Speaker 3>some special preference programs we called, so this was a

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:42.200
<v Speaker 3>very easy process. Tariffs were also generally low, like I said,

0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:44.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, around two percent, so a lot of times

0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:48.320
<v Speaker 3>you weren't even paying a tariff. You just were importing,

0:28:48.600 --> 0:28:51.600
<v Speaker 3>filing your paperwork, and then you've add on tax. It

0:28:51.640 --> 0:28:53.920
<v Speaker 3>was a little bit, right, It was super easy.

0:28:54.040 --> 0:28:56.920
<v Speaker 5>And we had this thing called the Deminimus exception, which

0:28:57.040 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 5>for Shian Timu and others meant you could order dire

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:04.400
<v Speaker 5>directly from a different country, not just China, anywhere in

0:29:04.400 --> 0:29:06.520
<v Speaker 5>the world and it could be shipped to you directly

0:29:06.560 --> 0:29:07.160
<v Speaker 5>and you could.

0:29:06.960 --> 0:29:08.840
<v Speaker 3>Avoid all of those formalities.

0:29:08.920 --> 0:29:09.160
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:12.760
<v Speaker 5>So Trump comes along and starts messing with this in

0:29:12.800 --> 0:29:18.840
<v Speaker 5>twenty seventeen twenty eighteen, suddenly Chinese goods got a tariff,

0:29:18.920 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 5>but maybe they were subject to an exclusion, and there

0:29:21.600 --> 0:29:25.040
<v Speaker 5>were all these processes and stuff for that. Steel and

0:29:25.160 --> 0:29:30.680
<v Speaker 5>aluminum got tariffs, but then there were agreements that carved

0:29:30.680 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 5>some of that out. You could lobby the government for

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:36.720
<v Speaker 5>your own exclusion. But then they extended the terrace to

0:29:36.880 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 5>downstream steel and a limb stuff made with steel in

0:29:39.560 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 5>a limb, what they call derivatives. Tons of litigation as well,

0:29:42.680 --> 0:29:47.640
<v Speaker 5>so that began the complexity stuff. Now everything's been turned

0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:51.760
<v Speaker 5>up to eleven. Now through the reciprocal tariff regime, you

0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 5>have different tariff rates for dozens of different countries that

0:29:57.440 --> 0:30:00.720
<v Speaker 5>are not replacing the old tear tariffs we had. They're

0:30:00.720 --> 0:30:02.760
<v Speaker 5>applying on top of those. So you need to figure

0:30:02.760 --> 0:30:04.959
<v Speaker 5>out what was the old tariff. Okay, what's the new tariff,

0:30:05.040 --> 0:30:07.920
<v Speaker 5>what's the country. But that's just the starting point. Then

0:30:08.000 --> 0:30:11.200
<v Speaker 5>you have to figure out is there any Chinese content

0:30:11.280 --> 0:30:14.120
<v Speaker 5>in it? Because there are different rules for Chinese content

0:30:14.120 --> 0:30:16.560
<v Speaker 5>what they call transhipment. Does it have any steel and

0:30:16.640 --> 0:30:20.120
<v Speaker 5>aluminum in it? Because now we're taxing the content of

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:24.280
<v Speaker 5>those products of course there are random exemptions and exclusions

0:30:24.320 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 5>as well, but this time around they're not transparent. You

0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:29.040
<v Speaker 5>could used to be able to go to a website

0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:32.120
<v Speaker 5>finding exclusion. Now it's again much harder. And that's just

0:30:32.320 --> 0:30:36.040
<v Speaker 5>one set of tariffs. There's all these other ones that

0:30:36.120 --> 0:30:39.400
<v Speaker 5>have started. Now we have automotive goods subject of tariffs,

0:30:39.400 --> 0:30:44.080
<v Speaker 5>copper subject of teriffs, investigations on semiconductors and consumer electronics,

0:30:44.120 --> 0:30:45.800
<v Speaker 5>and wood products on minerals.

0:30:45.840 --> 0:30:47.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you can go on and on and on.

0:30:47.520 --> 0:30:51.360
<v Speaker 5>So it has turned the US tariff regime from a

0:30:51.400 --> 0:30:55.360
<v Speaker 5>relatively simple and transparent one that basically anybody and his

0:30:55.440 --> 0:30:59.960
<v Speaker 5>uncle could operate to something that is its own tariff

0:31:00.320 --> 0:31:05.719
<v Speaker 5>right because the flexities attacks on smaller businesses and a

0:31:05.760 --> 0:31:08.960
<v Speaker 5>subsidy to big business. You know, GM and FOD they

0:31:09.000 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 5>have an Apple. They have like entire divisions of logistics

0:31:13.360 --> 0:31:16.360
<v Speaker 5>pros and supply chain pros. People who are just you know,

0:31:16.480 --> 0:31:19.479
<v Speaker 5>starting a small business importing a few products, or like

0:31:19.560 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 5>running in like an auto repair shop and they just

0:31:22.000 --> 0:31:24.240
<v Speaker 5>need a couple of parts. All of a sudden, they're

0:31:24.240 --> 0:31:28.480
<v Speaker 5>getting bills from DHL for one hundred, two hundred and

0:31:28.520 --> 0:31:31.960
<v Speaker 5>fifty bus dollars. They're getting tariff bills from customs in

0:31:32.040 --> 0:31:35.040
<v Speaker 5>the tens of thousands of dollars. And by the way,

0:31:35.400 --> 0:31:37.320
<v Speaker 5>if they get any of this role, let's say they

0:31:37.320 --> 0:31:40.800
<v Speaker 5>get the country of origin wrong or the steel content wrong,

0:31:41.280 --> 0:31:43.920
<v Speaker 5>all of a sudden, they could get fined by customs,

0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 5>investigated by DOJ because they just lacked the ability to

0:31:48.520 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 5>figure all this out.

0:31:49.960 --> 0:31:52.040
<v Speaker 1>I want to do like a lightning around with you

0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:54.719
<v Speaker 1>here because this is complicated, but I also think there

0:31:54.760 --> 0:31:57.320
<v Speaker 1>are some really important points here. So the first thing

0:31:57.360 --> 0:32:00.400
<v Speaker 1>I want you to just true or falls and explained

0:32:00.400 --> 0:32:04.400
<v Speaker 1>it to me. Is this our tariff's attax a corporate tax. Yeah,

0:32:04.440 --> 0:32:08.320
<v Speaker 1>so there are a tax on imports. The big question

0:32:08.600 --> 0:32:10.680
<v Speaker 1>is who pays the tax.

0:32:11.240 --> 0:32:16.320
<v Speaker 5>So legally most import taxes, most tariffs are paid by

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:19.440
<v Speaker 5>American importers. So US business is located in the United

0:32:19.440 --> 0:32:23.360
<v Speaker 5>States importing from somebody overseas, they legally have to pay

0:32:23.360 --> 0:32:23.840
<v Speaker 5>the tariff.

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:27.200
<v Speaker 3>There's one exception. Will avoid that. The bigger question is

0:32:27.240 --> 0:32:28.640
<v Speaker 3>the economic incidents.

0:32:28.760 --> 0:32:31.520
<v Speaker 5>It could be foreign exporters they could lower their prices

0:32:31.880 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 5>kind of eat the tariff. American companies and consumers. Trump

0:32:35.320 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 5>one point zero, almost one hundred percent of the tariffs

0:32:38.520 --> 0:32:41.520
<v Speaker 5>were being paid by American companies and consumers. They were

0:32:41.600 --> 0:32:45.360
<v Speaker 5>kind of splitting it. Company gets the product, maybe passes

0:32:45.400 --> 0:32:48.880
<v Speaker 5>on the cost via higher price, maybe maybe doesn't. This

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:51.720
<v Speaker 5>time around, foreign explorers are paying a little bit more,

0:32:51.760 --> 0:32:54.480
<v Speaker 5>but it's still like ten percent max. And then the

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 5>rest is being split among companies and consumers. So far

0:32:58.360 --> 0:32:59.960
<v Speaker 5>with companies paying more like a corp.

0:33:00.840 --> 0:33:03.920
<v Speaker 1>I want you to talk about the washing machines. So

0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:07.440
<v Speaker 1>in the first Trump administration, explain this.

0:33:07.880 --> 0:33:10.200
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so, washing machines are a great example of some

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:13.680
<v Speaker 5>of the weird and unintended consequences of tariffs. So we

0:33:14.040 --> 0:33:17.960
<v Speaker 5>imposed a safeguard measure, basically a global tariff on all

0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:22.840
<v Speaker 5>washing machines to help the American washing machine industry, mainly Whirlpool,

0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:25.120
<v Speaker 5>who was lobbying heavily for those.

0:33:25.200 --> 0:33:27.840
<v Speaker 1>By the way, how fucking corrupt is that? Oh yeah,

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 1>Worldpool could lobby heavily for this, and so we tariffed

0:33:32.720 --> 0:33:34.840
<v Speaker 1>another country's washing machines.

0:33:34.960 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 3>This is trade policy, one oh one.

0:33:37.000 --> 0:33:40.880
<v Speaker 5>The modern lobbying system in the United States has its

0:33:40.960 --> 0:33:44.800
<v Speaker 5>origins in like nineteenth century US tariff policy, which Congress

0:33:44.880 --> 0:33:48.920
<v Speaker 5>used to handle and it was just an absolute corruption buffet, right.

0:33:48.840 --> 0:33:52.120
<v Speaker 1>Which it still is. Right, because fucking Whirlpool does not

0:33:52.280 --> 0:33:53.680
<v Speaker 1>deserve to have in the.

0:33:53.600 --> 0:33:57.520
<v Speaker 5>Steel industry and the shipbuilding industry and the textile guys

0:33:57.520 --> 0:34:00.000
<v Speaker 5>and the sugar guys. So you get yourself a trade,

0:34:00.320 --> 0:34:04.520
<v Speaker 5>you lobby for protection. And because tariffs are mostly invisible,

0:34:04.560 --> 0:34:06.560
<v Speaker 5>like you don't see it on your sales receipt, right,

0:34:06.880 --> 0:34:09.720
<v Speaker 5>because they target foreigners, and we have these anti foreign

0:34:09.800 --> 0:34:14.600
<v Speaker 5>biases because they supposedly support jobs and patriotism and all that,

0:34:14.800 --> 0:34:17.760
<v Speaker 5>it's very politically seductive and pretty easy to get protection.

0:34:18.000 --> 0:34:20.520
<v Speaker 5>The only way we short circuited that dynamic was through

0:34:20.560 --> 0:34:22.839
<v Speaker 5>trade agreements, which, of course Trump has now blown up.

0:34:22.960 --> 0:34:25.320
<v Speaker 5>So we're kind of back in they just wild West

0:34:25.520 --> 0:34:30.120
<v Speaker 5>where you hire a lobbyist. Trade lobbying has skyrocketed this year.

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:32.920
<v Speaker 5>You hire a lobbyist, you go to Washington, get you

0:34:32.960 --> 0:34:35.320
<v Speaker 5>try to get your own tariff, or you get yourself

0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:37.800
<v Speaker 5>a carve out if you're a big company like Apple,

0:34:38.120 --> 0:34:40.279
<v Speaker 5>where the rest of us are just eating it.

0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:44.360
<v Speaker 3>Right. Oh so, anyway, washing machine tariffs, So we imposed

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:48.040
<v Speaker 3>washing machine tariffs. Prices of washing machines went up in

0:34:48.080 --> 0:34:50.839
<v Speaker 3>the United States. But the kicker is that prices of

0:34:50.960 --> 0:34:53.799
<v Speaker 3>dryers went up too, because you buy your washer and

0:34:53.800 --> 0:34:54.680
<v Speaker 3>your dryer together.

0:34:55.160 --> 0:34:57.480
<v Speaker 1>If you're going to pay three thousand dollars for your

0:34:57.520 --> 0:35:00.160
<v Speaker 1>washing machine, you're not going to pay two thousand dollar

0:35:00.200 --> 0:35:02.399
<v Speaker 1>for your dryer. Why not make the dryers three thousand docks.

0:35:02.600 --> 0:35:04.239
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so companies figure this out.

0:35:04.280 --> 0:35:07.120
<v Speaker 5>Domestic companies like Worldpool figure this out too, and it

0:35:07.239 --> 0:35:10.799
<v Speaker 5>turns out that consumers ended up paying more than one

0:35:10.880 --> 0:35:13.840
<v Speaker 5>hundred percent of the tariff cost because the price of

0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:17.680
<v Speaker 5>the dryers went up too. So the kicker, however, is

0:35:17.719 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 5>that Wirlpool hasn't really even benefited. It turns out that

0:35:21.520 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 5>Samsung and LG had some factories in the United States

0:35:25.640 --> 0:35:29.080
<v Speaker 5>they were already building, so you have Samsung and LG factories,

0:35:29.080 --> 0:35:32.560
<v Speaker 5>whereas Worldpool's actually still struggling, which again is trade policy.

0:35:32.719 --> 0:35:35.000
<v Speaker 1>I have to say, though, that is a little bit

0:35:35.000 --> 0:35:38.279
<v Speaker 1>of a happy ending, because fuck Worldpool, I can say

0:35:38.360 --> 0:35:41.840
<v Speaker 1>because it's my podcast, But no, such a good example

0:35:41.920 --> 0:35:43.719
<v Speaker 1>of how none of this is going to have the

0:35:43.760 --> 0:35:45.560
<v Speaker 1>first roarer of effects we think.

0:35:45.600 --> 0:35:48.000
<v Speaker 5>Right, and it's going to have all sorts of weird

0:35:48.520 --> 0:35:50.840
<v Speaker 5>effects that we're only going to see in retrospect. And

0:35:50.880 --> 0:35:54.560
<v Speaker 5>that's another reason why tariffs are so politically seducted. It

0:35:54.640 --> 0:35:56.759
<v Speaker 5>takes a while for all of this stuff to kind

0:35:56.760 --> 0:36:00.880
<v Speaker 5>of work its way through the economy. You know, a

0:36:00.920 --> 0:36:05.080
<v Speaker 5>company like GM has like three tiers of suppliers, So

0:36:05.160 --> 0:36:08.200
<v Speaker 5>if the supplier at the bottom end is paying the

0:36:08.239 --> 0:36:11.360
<v Speaker 5>tariff and it passes on some and so it's gonna

0:36:11.440 --> 0:36:14.040
<v Speaker 5>it just takes forever for this stuff to wash out.

0:36:14.120 --> 0:36:18.120
<v Speaker 5>Now we're now a good six seven months into this,

0:36:18.560 --> 0:36:22.759
<v Speaker 5>and the economic data are finally starting to show the

0:36:22.840 --> 0:36:28.520
<v Speaker 5>tariff costs, the economic pain, higher prices, slower growth, the

0:36:28.560 --> 0:36:29.799
<v Speaker 5>lobbying stuff, and the rest.

0:36:29.880 --> 0:36:33.879
<v Speaker 1>Right, So, last week, before Donald Trump decided to have

0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:38.840
<v Speaker 1>an emergency summit with Vladimir Putin, totally because it needed

0:36:38.840 --> 0:36:42.439
<v Speaker 1>to happen on that Friday and not to distract from

0:36:42.480 --> 0:36:45.160
<v Speaker 1>anything else, right, those, of course would he there were

0:36:45.160 --> 0:36:49.440
<v Speaker 1>two bits of news that showed that the tariffs are

0:36:49.480 --> 0:36:52.040
<v Speaker 1>going to be a fucking disaster. Talk us through them.

0:36:52.440 --> 0:36:55.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So we had last week the Consumer Price Index

0:36:55.920 --> 0:36:59.160
<v Speaker 5>data that's basically the United States government looks at the

0:36:59.640 --> 0:37:01.480
<v Speaker 5>price you and I are paying for stuff.

0:37:01.719 --> 0:37:03.560
<v Speaker 3>And here you're starting.

0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:11.160
<v Speaker 5>To see the prices of goods that are mainly importing toys, clothes, appliances,

0:37:11.239 --> 0:37:14.080
<v Speaker 5>other things. Those are starting to go up. The bigger

0:37:14.160 --> 0:37:17.480
<v Speaker 5>surprise was in the producer price index, which is the

0:37:17.520 --> 0:37:20.359
<v Speaker 5>prices that producers in the United States, so these don't

0:37:20.360 --> 0:37:23.759
<v Speaker 5>include tariffs, are just selling to each other. That was

0:37:23.800 --> 0:37:28.480
<v Speaker 5>a really big upside surprise, and the big driver were

0:37:28.520 --> 0:37:31.360
<v Speaker 5>the companies that deal in the import space, so like

0:37:31.440 --> 0:37:38.040
<v Speaker 5>wholesalers and distributors, sellers of manufactured machinery and other things.

0:37:38.400 --> 0:37:41.680
<v Speaker 5>So that had everybody looking at those things and going Aha,

0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:45.560
<v Speaker 5>terrifs are starting to really leak into the general inflation

0:37:45.719 --> 0:37:48.560
<v Speaker 5>data and the general price The other data piece we

0:37:48.640 --> 0:37:52.160
<v Speaker 5>got less reported is that we get data on import prices,

0:37:52.520 --> 0:37:55.760
<v Speaker 5>and here import prices were up.

0:37:55.600 --> 0:37:57.400
<v Speaker 3>A little bit. Now why does that important.

0:37:57.440 --> 0:38:01.239
<v Speaker 5>Well, import prices in this data set don't include tariffs,

0:38:01.760 --> 0:38:04.760
<v Speaker 5>so if we were to see, as Donald Trump claims,

0:38:04.840 --> 0:38:08.400
<v Speaker 5>foreigners paying the tariffs, we would expect import prices to

0:38:08.440 --> 0:38:12.000
<v Speaker 5>actually be down a lot, but they're not really at all.

0:38:12.440 --> 0:38:16.440
<v Speaker 5>So this is more evidence that it is Americans mainly

0:38:16.760 --> 0:38:20.200
<v Speaker 5>that are paying these billions in teriffs, and along with

0:38:20.280 --> 0:38:24.239
<v Speaker 5>of course higher prices for American made goods, because the

0:38:24.320 --> 0:38:27.480
<v Speaker 5>steel guys and the copper guys and the whirlpools of

0:38:27.480 --> 0:38:29.280
<v Speaker 5>the world, they're not going to sit around and go, oh,

0:38:29.320 --> 0:38:31.840
<v Speaker 5>you know we're gonna we're gonna charge low prices because

0:38:31.960 --> 0:38:34.479
<v Speaker 5>you know, our competitors higher, they're go in charge higher

0:38:34.480 --> 0:38:37.480
<v Speaker 5>prices too. That's what being insulated from competition. That's the

0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:39.720
<v Speaker 5>whole point, right, And that's what we're getting.

0:38:39.840 --> 0:38:45.480
<v Speaker 1>That is so incredibly unshocking and unsurprising. And I want

0:38:45.520 --> 0:38:48.759
<v Speaker 1>to talk for a minute about like a week before that,

0:38:49.160 --> 0:38:51.919
<v Speaker 1>I read an article that said that all the money

0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:54.879
<v Speaker 1>the government was making from tariffs, because the government right

0:38:54.920 --> 0:38:58.200
<v Speaker 1>now is making a gazillion dollars from tariffs, right, what

0:38:58.280 --> 0:38:58.960
<v Speaker 1>are the numbers.

0:38:59.360 --> 0:39:02.680
<v Speaker 5>It's like fifty billion a month right now, so pretty solid.

0:39:02.719 --> 0:39:06.200
<v Speaker 5>Now it's compared to where we were pre Trump era.

0:39:06.360 --> 0:39:09.400
<v Speaker 5>We would maybe clear one hundred billion a year in

0:39:09.480 --> 0:39:12.600
<v Speaker 5>tarrisks because we did have some tariffs on stuff like

0:39:12.920 --> 0:39:15.320
<v Speaker 5>shoes and clothes, because of course, you know, let's tax

0:39:15.360 --> 0:39:17.799
<v Speaker 5>those things, right, But generally we weren't making a lot.

0:39:17.880 --> 0:39:20.440
<v Speaker 3>Now we have a lot of revenue coming in.

0:39:20.760 --> 0:39:25.320
<v Speaker 1>So fifty billion a month, right, and that's ridiculous numbers.

0:39:25.760 --> 0:39:28.640
<v Speaker 1>I was reading an article that said that no one's

0:39:28.680 --> 0:39:31.040
<v Speaker 1>going to be able to undo the tariffs because this

0:39:31.200 --> 0:39:33.640
<v Speaker 1>money is so delicious and it's going to pay down

0:39:33.719 --> 0:39:35.319
<v Speaker 1>the debt, and we're going to be able to use

0:39:35.360 --> 0:39:41.040
<v Speaker 1>it to fund a whole new gestoppo ice whatever and

0:39:41.160 --> 0:39:44.320
<v Speaker 1>make new Alligator Alcatraz is in all of the things

0:39:44.360 --> 0:39:48.040
<v Speaker 1>that Trump World dreams of. But here's my hottest take

0:39:48.120 --> 0:39:51.440
<v Speaker 1>for you. We are on the precipice of a complete

0:39:51.600 --> 0:39:55.560
<v Speaker 1>financial meltdown. The reason that people, we haven't had tariffs

0:39:55.640 --> 0:39:59.000
<v Speaker 1>like this since the nineteen twenties or thirties.

0:39:59.120 --> 0:40:01.720
<v Speaker 3>Right, Yeah, I got to go back basically to Smooth Holly.

0:40:01.800 --> 0:40:03.239
<v Speaker 1>How did Smooth Holly end?

0:40:03.560 --> 0:40:07.239
<v Speaker 3>It ended with well, the Great Depression in World War Two?

0:40:07.719 --> 0:40:11.239
<v Speaker 1>But but yes, but there was good stuff in between there.

0:40:11.320 --> 0:40:14.200
<v Speaker 5>I'm going to be the calm intellectual here for a

0:40:14.239 --> 0:40:19.040
<v Speaker 5>second and say, most folks think that that tariff's exacerbated

0:40:19.160 --> 0:40:22.120
<v Speaker 5>other economic problems in the United States. Yeah, I'm not

0:40:22.200 --> 0:40:23.160
<v Speaker 5>as dire.

0:40:23.080 --> 0:40:25.279
<v Speaker 3>As you are. I see this more.

0:40:25.320 --> 0:40:27.920
<v Speaker 5>The way I describe it is it doesn't have to

0:40:27.920 --> 0:40:31.840
<v Speaker 5>be economic catastrophe for economic catastrophe for it to be bad.

0:40:32.360 --> 0:40:33.240
<v Speaker 3>I could cut.

0:40:33.040 --> 0:40:36.239
<v Speaker 5>Off my foot and still hobble around and live. That

0:40:36.320 --> 0:40:38.480
<v Speaker 5>doesn't mean cutting off my foot is a good idea.

0:40:38.680 --> 0:40:41.920
<v Speaker 5>And I think that's more where tariff policy is today

0:40:42.120 --> 0:40:43.160
<v Speaker 5>than the Great Depression.

0:40:43.400 --> 0:40:46.080
<v Speaker 1>Oh that said, at this point, there's only one sector

0:40:46.080 --> 0:40:48.560
<v Speaker 1>of the market that's growing, which is AI.

0:40:49.120 --> 0:40:52.520
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, very likely be above all, right, But remember the

0:40:52.640 --> 0:40:56.280
<v Speaker 5>United States is a massive, I mean thirty trillion dollar economy.

0:40:56.400 --> 0:41:00.040
<v Speaker 5>Imports are only around ten percent of our GDP. The

0:41:00.320 --> 0:41:02.640
<v Speaker 5>United States is actually not as much of a globally

0:41:02.640 --> 0:41:07.920
<v Speaker 5>integrated economy as you think. We're huge, dynamic services economy.

0:41:08.360 --> 0:41:10.719
<v Speaker 5>So you can do a lot of damage in the

0:41:10.719 --> 0:41:15.640
<v Speaker 5>trade and goods sector that'll leak into the services like

0:41:15.920 --> 0:41:19.239
<v Speaker 5>auto repair and other things, but it's not going to

0:41:20.320 --> 0:41:25.120
<v Speaker 5>likely tip us into whatever because so much of the

0:41:25.160 --> 0:41:28.080
<v Speaker 5>rest of the economy can be just fine without you know,

0:41:28.120 --> 0:41:31.000
<v Speaker 5>pay a little more, but be okay. The worry, I

0:41:31.040 --> 0:41:36.000
<v Speaker 5>think is that there's contagion, right, so people start freaking

0:41:36.040 --> 0:41:39.000
<v Speaker 5>out and they don't see that in April as the

0:41:39.040 --> 0:41:42.400
<v Speaker 5>worst case scenarios kind of people started thinking worst case

0:41:43.000 --> 0:41:45.279
<v Speaker 5>and I think that that's when you get into the

0:41:45.280 --> 0:41:46.080
<v Speaker 5>scary area.

0:41:46.239 --> 0:41:47.560
<v Speaker 3>It's that contagion stuff.

0:41:47.600 --> 0:41:51.480
<v Speaker 5>I don't think the director even indirect effects are alone enough.

0:41:51.520 --> 0:41:53.920
<v Speaker 5>But the fact is that you know, the US economy

0:41:54.080 --> 0:41:57.440
<v Speaker 5>was weakening before Trump took off. This it wasn't bad,

0:41:57.760 --> 0:42:01.239
<v Speaker 5>but it wasn't firing on all cylinders. And so the

0:42:01.280 --> 0:42:04.279
<v Speaker 5>problem with all this tariff stuff is that it's just

0:42:04.360 --> 0:42:05.560
<v Speaker 5>making us even weaker.

0:42:05.800 --> 0:42:08.279
<v Speaker 1>Say tomorrow, Donald Trump, and I don't think we're going

0:42:08.320 --> 0:42:10.399
<v Speaker 1>into a depression, but I certainly don't think we're going

0:42:10.400 --> 0:42:13.279
<v Speaker 1>anywhere good. Donald Trump tomorrow says, you know what, I

0:42:13.400 --> 0:42:18.360
<v Speaker 1>made a mistake. Triffs are inflationary. I was elected to

0:42:18.400 --> 0:42:21.960
<v Speaker 1>make things cheaper and also to be mean to people

0:42:22.200 --> 0:42:25.600
<v Speaker 1>who were not born here. I have now made a

0:42:25.680 --> 0:42:28.800
<v Speaker 1>huge mistake. I want to get rid of these tariffs.

0:42:28.920 --> 0:42:31.520
<v Speaker 1>You can't do it, so talk us through how hard

0:42:31.560 --> 0:42:32.279
<v Speaker 1>it is to do it.

0:42:32.480 --> 0:42:35.399
<v Speaker 3>Well, legally, he can't. He could literally sign a piece

0:42:35.400 --> 0:42:37.640
<v Speaker 3>of paper and they'd all go away tomorrow. But will

0:42:37.719 --> 0:42:41.239
<v Speaker 3>prices go down, No, very unlikely.

0:42:41.320 --> 0:42:41.520
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:42:41.600 --> 0:42:44.399
<v Speaker 5>It's kind of like when the price at the gas

0:42:44.440 --> 0:42:46.479
<v Speaker 5>station goes up, it takes forever for him to come down.

0:42:46.880 --> 0:42:49.400
<v Speaker 5>When it comes to generally to the price level in

0:42:49.440 --> 0:42:52.400
<v Speaker 5>the United States. What you have to do, and this

0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:55.200
<v Speaker 5>is kind of similar to what happened during the Biden era,

0:42:55.800 --> 0:42:58.320
<v Speaker 5>is you have to just wait for wages to catch

0:42:58.400 --> 0:43:01.439
<v Speaker 5>up to where prices are. U won't keep heading up,

0:43:01.800 --> 0:43:04.279
<v Speaker 5>they'll just kind of flatten out, and that's what you.

0:43:04.280 --> 0:43:04.719
<v Speaker 3>Have to do.

0:43:05.080 --> 0:43:09.440
<v Speaker 5>I think the bigger issue, quite frankly, is the money.

0:43:09.800 --> 0:43:12.400
<v Speaker 5>Like you said, I think the tariffs can prove quite

0:43:12.520 --> 0:43:16.480
<v Speaker 5>durable because now you have tens, if not hundreds of

0:43:16.560 --> 0:43:20.000
<v Speaker 5>billions of dollars in new tax revenue, tax revenue that

0:43:20.160 --> 0:43:24.479
<v Speaker 5>for some insane reason, anti tax Republicans are cheering, and

0:43:24.960 --> 0:43:27.960
<v Speaker 5>we have fiscal problems. So I think it's just going

0:43:28.040 --> 0:43:31.439
<v Speaker 5>to be really hard for it to go away now

0:43:31.480 --> 0:43:33.759
<v Speaker 5>that it started. And this, by the way, again is

0:43:33.920 --> 0:43:39.000
<v Speaker 5>exactly why folks like me warn against tariffs, not just

0:43:39.040 --> 0:43:42.640
<v Speaker 5>the economic harms, not just how they hurt small businesses,

0:43:43.080 --> 0:43:46.040
<v Speaker 5>but because man, once they're in place, they are.

0:43:45.920 --> 0:43:48.480
<v Speaker 3>Incredibly difficult to remove.

0:43:48.800 --> 0:43:51.359
<v Speaker 5>And unfortunately that's what we got to deal with, and

0:43:51.520 --> 0:43:53.840
<v Speaker 5>we do dealing with, of course, because Congress won't do

0:43:53.880 --> 0:43:56.319
<v Speaker 5>its job and actually fix the laws that allow a

0:43:56.320 --> 0:43:58.240
<v Speaker 5>guy like Trump to do this stuff in the first place.

0:43:58.480 --> 0:44:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Scott, thank you, my pleasure. I hope you'll come back.

0:44:02.080 --> 0:44:02.480
<v Speaker 3>Of course.

0:44:04.760 --> 0:44:09.240
<v Speaker 1>No, Mom, Sickly, Jesse Cannon.

0:44:09.120 --> 0:44:13.239
<v Speaker 2>Molly, we got some serious, seriously fuckery going on right here.

0:44:13.480 --> 0:44:17.000
<v Speaker 1>This is special Molly's birthday. Fuck Ray so let's go.

0:44:17.400 --> 0:44:19.240
<v Speaker 1>Jesse Cannon, I'm scared.

0:44:19.480 --> 0:44:22.799
<v Speaker 2>You know, basically I am eight months older than you.

0:44:22.800 --> 0:44:24.799
<v Speaker 2>You give me tons of shit about this. You talk

0:44:24.840 --> 0:44:27.560
<v Speaker 2>about the guest sage. So today what I'm giving you

0:44:27.600 --> 0:44:30.520
<v Speaker 2>as a president is I'm going to tell you every

0:44:30.600 --> 0:44:34.960
<v Speaker 2>politician that is our age, so you can feel absolutely

0:44:35.080 --> 0:44:36.439
<v Speaker 2>terrible about how old we are.

0:44:37.040 --> 0:44:38.800
<v Speaker 1>This is the worst thing out.

0:44:38.840 --> 0:44:40.640
<v Speaker 2>So for listeners out of the note the past, I

0:44:40.719 --> 0:44:43.839
<v Speaker 2>used to buy Molli cabios from people like Rudy Giuliani,

0:44:44.040 --> 0:44:46.480
<v Speaker 2>Alan Dershowitz. I look at the list this year and

0:44:46.520 --> 0:44:49.320
<v Speaker 2>it's just too repulsive of who I would be giving money.

0:44:49.440 --> 0:44:51.680
<v Speaker 1>You don't want to give those people any money anymore.

0:44:52.320 --> 0:44:54.160
<v Speaker 1>It's just no good came up from that.

0:44:54.440 --> 0:44:56.880
<v Speaker 2>So I figured this is the less cruel thing to do,

0:44:57.040 --> 0:44:59.000
<v Speaker 2>even though this is about to be very cruel. Are

0:44:59.000 --> 0:45:01.000
<v Speaker 2>you ready for a list of people who are just

0:45:01.080 --> 0:45:02.200
<v Speaker 2>as old as you?

0:45:02.239 --> 0:45:02.319
<v Speaker 1>No.

0:45:03.040 --> 0:45:09.560
<v Speaker 6>Emmanuel McCrone, Really, he's accomplished so much more. Georgia Belodi,

0:45:10.239 --> 0:45:13.239
<v Speaker 6>she's also accomplished so much more. God damn it, they're

0:45:13.280 --> 0:45:15.120
<v Speaker 6>both forty seven. That's horrendous.

0:45:15.400 --> 0:45:17.799
<v Speaker 2>Technically within a year of us is what I'm doing here.

0:45:17.840 --> 0:45:20.480
<v Speaker 2>So it's like you can't do exactly but the Prime

0:45:20.520 --> 0:45:25.480
<v Speaker 2>Minister of Denmark Metta Fredericson, Oh wow, Congressman Seth multen

0:45:26.560 --> 0:45:31.040
<v Speaker 2>voldemir is Lenski what. Yeah, he was born on January

0:45:31.080 --> 0:45:33.839
<v Speaker 2>twenty fifth, nineteen seventy eight, which makes him seventeen days

0:45:33.920 --> 0:45:34.400
<v Speaker 2>younger than me.

0:45:34.760 --> 0:45:36.200
<v Speaker 1>Oh, Jesus fucking Christ.

0:45:36.239 --> 0:45:38.279
<v Speaker 2>All right, this one you're gonna be very proud of.

0:45:38.719 --> 0:45:39.640
<v Speaker 2>Mark Wayne Mullen.

0:45:39.880 --> 0:45:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Wait, that guy's our age, Jay, that guy.

0:45:42.880 --> 0:45:45.759
<v Speaker 2>Is our age. He's technically a hair older than me.

0:45:46.600 --> 0:45:48.640
<v Speaker 1>Mark, Wayne and Jesus Christ.

0:45:48.800 --> 0:45:51.920
<v Speaker 2>Okay, but this is the one that always really hurts

0:45:52.000 --> 0:45:55.200
<v Speaker 2>because she's just a few days older than me. Representative

0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:55.919
<v Speaker 2>Nancy Mace.

0:45:56.400 --> 0:45:59.360
<v Speaker 1>Wow, kind of makes you think.

0:45:59.440 --> 0:46:02.360
<v Speaker 2>Didn't we have a friend of the show, Robert Garcia,

0:46:02.400 --> 0:46:03.880
<v Speaker 2>who's just a few days older than me?

0:46:04.280 --> 0:46:06.399
<v Speaker 1>Ah, Robert Garcia.

0:46:07.160 --> 0:46:11.240
<v Speaker 2>Then, to get into our profession of punditry, Alex Wagner

0:46:11.600 --> 0:46:15.680
<v Speaker 2>is our age. Yeah, she's just two months older than me.

0:46:15.880 --> 0:46:18.000
<v Speaker 1>Also way more successful.

0:46:17.800 --> 0:46:21.560
<v Speaker 2>Just under the gun of being almost exactly a year

0:46:21.960 --> 0:46:24.840
<v Speaker 2>older than you, but still a little less is Steve Kornaki.

0:46:25.920 --> 0:46:31.040
<v Speaker 1>Steve Karnaki, congratulations Karnaki and being our age but you

0:46:31.080 --> 0:46:31.359
<v Speaker 1>know who.

0:46:31.360 --> 0:46:35.280
<v Speaker 2>You're about a month younger than who, Jesse Waters.

0:46:36.120 --> 0:46:40.719
<v Speaker 1>And I'm only married to my first husband, so damn it.

0:46:41.400 --> 0:46:43.360
<v Speaker 2>Okay, we still got a few more to go and

0:46:43.400 --> 0:46:44.239
<v Speaker 2>then this will be over.

0:46:44.400 --> 0:46:47.640
<v Speaker 1>Let's go. No, I never wanted to end. Keep going.

0:46:47.840 --> 0:46:51.160
<v Speaker 2>Okay, you're just a few months older than Representative Byron

0:46:51.239 --> 0:46:56.200
<v Speaker 2>Donald's all right, go on, Victoria Sparts just a few

0:46:56.239 --> 0:46:56.840
<v Speaker 2>months older.

0:46:56.920 --> 0:47:01.640
<v Speaker 1>Then I'm not going to say anything. I don't want

0:47:01.640 --> 0:47:02.360
<v Speaker 1>to get canceled.

0:47:03.560 --> 0:47:07.439
<v Speaker 2>Just a few months older, did Maryland Governor Wes Moore?

0:47:08.400 --> 0:47:10.040
<v Speaker 1>I knew because we went to school together.

0:47:10.520 --> 0:47:14.120
<v Speaker 2>I knew that. Actually, okay, but you got just almost

0:47:14.200 --> 0:47:16.960
<v Speaker 2>exactly a month on Governor Ron DeSantis.

0:47:17.320 --> 0:47:20.640
<v Speaker 1>Wait, I'm a month older than Ron DeSantis, younger, younger,

0:47:20.800 --> 0:47:23.240
<v Speaker 1>I look a lot younger, I think I would agree.

0:47:23.280 --> 0:47:24.920
<v Speaker 1>And I'm also a lot taller than Ron.

0:47:26.480 --> 0:47:28.840
<v Speaker 2>John Oliver is in the same year.

0:47:28.719 --> 0:47:33.800
<v Speaker 1>As us, whoa also more successful than we are. That's annoying.

0:47:34.280 --> 0:47:37.440
<v Speaker 2>Then we have a Congressman Mark Livin.

0:47:37.160 --> 0:47:38.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah he looks older than we do.

0:47:38.800 --> 0:47:42.080
<v Speaker 2>Then we have former Congressman Adam Kinsinger.

0:47:41.719 --> 0:47:43.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah he looks younger than we do.

0:47:43.719 --> 0:47:47.200
<v Speaker 2>And then, last, but not least, we have the one,

0:47:47.680 --> 0:47:52.040
<v Speaker 2>the only Senator Josh Holly, who's about a year younger

0:47:52.080 --> 0:47:52.440
<v Speaker 2>than us.

0:47:52.880 --> 0:47:57.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, yes, Josh Holly, how.

0:47:56.880 --> 0:47:58.600
<v Speaker 2>Do you feel now, BALI did it? Did I cheer

0:47:58.640 --> 0:47:59.280
<v Speaker 2>up your birthday?

0:47:59.360 --> 0:48:00.080
<v Speaker 1>I hate you?

0:48:01.800 --> 0:48:03.640
<v Speaker 2>Well, I had to do it.

0:48:04.360 --> 0:48:05.399
<v Speaker 1>I truly hate you.

0:48:05.719 --> 0:48:08.680
<v Speaker 2>It was this our funding fascist. So there you go.

0:48:09.239 --> 0:48:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, thank you. Let's have a clean out here.

0:48:12.719 --> 0:48:13.720
<v Speaker 2>I'm taking a ballot.

0:48:13.719 --> 0:48:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Thank you. I'm going to go have an urban breakdown.

0:48:16.200 --> 0:48:20.879
<v Speaker 1>Thank you. That's it for this episode of Fast Politics.

0:48:21.360 --> 0:48:27.080
<v Speaker 1>Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear

0:48:27.360 --> 0:48:31.719
<v Speaker 1>the best minds and politics make sense of all this chaos.

0:48:32.000 --> 0:48:34.840
<v Speaker 1>If you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a

0:48:34.920 --> 0:48:38.920
<v Speaker 1>friend and keep the conversation going. Thanks for listening.