1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,719
Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of the Buck Sexton Show,

2
00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:06,120
Speaker 1: The Deep Dives, the long form. Preciate all the comments

3
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:08,880
Speaker 1: you have about this format and how you're enjoying it.

4
00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:11,800
Speaker 1: And it's great for me too, because now I get

5
00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:15,280
Speaker 1: to sit and really enjoy the brilliance and the insights

6
00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,360
Speaker 1: of so many guests without a commercial break, jumping in

7
00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 1: from radio and limited to eight to ten minutes at

8
00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,960
Speaker 1: a time. We got plenty of time with our folks,

9
00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 1: and we're gonna need it this week for sure. Today

10
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,960
Speaker 1: we've got our friend Bridge Colby with us. He has

11
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,080
Speaker 1: a principle at the Marathon Initiative. He served as the

12
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 1: lead official in the development of the twenty eighteen Natural

13
00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,000
Speaker 1: Defense Strategy, which shifted the Pentagon's focus to China, and

14
00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,680
Speaker 1: is the author of a fantastic book, Strategy of Denial

15
00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,800
Speaker 1: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. Walste

16
00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 1: Journal said one of the top ten books of twenty

17
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,480
Speaker 1: twenty one. Mister Bridge Colby, who I have also known.

18
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,559
Speaker 1: Fun fact, because we didn't get talk with us in radio.

19
00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:57,800
Speaker 1: Bridge and I used to do shots of Quervaux at

20
00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,760
Speaker 1: the same bars in DC back when I was a

21
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,920
Speaker 1: cub CIA analyst, and Bridge was, where were you in

22
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,119
Speaker 1: Yale law school at the time. You're doing something something

23
00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,560
Speaker 1: like that. I don't know, so something, uh, you know,

24
00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,520
Speaker 1: one job or another. But gosh, you've you've you've you've

25
00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,560
Speaker 1: sold us out here back so I know now people

26
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,560
Speaker 1: know Bridge and I go go way back. We're talking

27
00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,560
Speaker 1: like we're like twenty years and now we're kind of old.

28
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,920
Speaker 1: We're kind o looking good. I feel like we're looking

29
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,040
Speaker 1: at our end could be worse, right. Yeah, look, let's

30
00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,520
Speaker 1: be honest. We kind of look like racquetball buddies or something.

31
00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,440
Speaker 1: So you know, it makes sense that we go way

32
00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,720
Speaker 1: back here. You know we were we were doubles partners

33
00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,680
Speaker 1: on the grass sports. So um, Bridge, we're going to

34
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,679
Speaker 1: turn out. We'll go back to some fun stuff towards

35
00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:43,160
Speaker 1: the end here, but I gotta start with this. Um. Look,

36
00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 1: I never want to make uh, I don't. I'm not

37
00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,840
Speaker 1: trying to make analysts fight with other analysts about these issues.

38
00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,280
Speaker 1: Did you hear the I think Peter Zihon on the

39
00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,360
Speaker 1: Rogan By any chance, you know this guy who went

40
00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,840
Speaker 1: on Rogan, I can give you a summary of what

41
00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:02,040
Speaker 1: he says because he would sense. But yeah, yeah, Okay,

42
00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,480
Speaker 1: So it's basically China's gonna collapse idea, China's gonna collapse.

43
00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,799
Speaker 1: China is super weak. China imports all like not all,

44
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,839
Speaker 1: but you know, basically all of its food inputs. Politically

45
00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,679
Speaker 1: so sclerotic that she can't get anything done. The population

46
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,119
Speaker 1: bomb is going to be there, undoing, and it's all

47
00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,040
Speaker 1: gonna fall apart within the next ten years in China.

48
00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,920
Speaker 1: That's the basic thesis. I just want to give that

49
00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,040
Speaker 1: to you to give your sense of because this guy's

50
00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 1: gotten a lot of obviously Rogan podcasts is huge lot

51
00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 1: of attention for this. What do you think. I mean, Look,

52
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,800
Speaker 1: he could be right, but I think the job of

53
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,440
Speaker 1: our strategy, I mean, calling yourself a strategist a little ridiculous,

54
00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,320
Speaker 1: but I mean, if you'll bear with me for a second,

55
00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 1: the job the strategist is to figure out what's in

56
00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,119
Speaker 1: the best interests of the country. And Peter Zihon could

57
00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,160
Speaker 1: be right. Personally am skeptical, but again I could be wrong,

58
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:51,560
Speaker 1: but I think we need to cover and prepare for

59
00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:55,560
Speaker 1: the downside risk. And you know, if he's right and

60
00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,919
Speaker 1: we've prepared as if the Chinese are not going to

61
00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,000
Speaker 1: fall apart, well, then we'll have probably spent too much

62
00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,440
Speaker 1: money and maybe been a little more regressive than we

63
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,520
Speaker 1: might have needed to have been. But if he's wrong

64
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,760
Speaker 1: and we took his advice and we assumed that that

65
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,799
Speaker 1: was going to happen, then we're in a world of hurt.

66
00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 1: So I just I don't honestly that's that argument is

67
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,240
Speaker 1: not because okay, so, like it's like if there was

68
00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,480
Speaker 1: another China out there, Let's say there was a ussr

69
00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,160
Speaker 1: you know, nineteen fifty, so like, at least allegedly we

70
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,480
Speaker 1: thought at the time of peer economy, let's say there

71
00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,280
Speaker 1: were two of them, and so there was like a

72
00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,280
Speaker 1: real choice about whether or not you could focus on them.

73
00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,440
Speaker 1: But Russia's one tenth the economic size of China. So

74
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, well we'll just cover down on

75
00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 1: that risk. And if he's right, great, you know, if

76
00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:42,760
Speaker 1: the chemo works or whatever, great, you know, it's that's

77
00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,840
Speaker 1: not the best analogy, but that's you know, I mean,

78
00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,040
Speaker 1: so that's the basic way. Now if we're going to

79
00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,400
Speaker 1: be a little bit lean, a little bit farther forward,

80
00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:52,920
Speaker 1: and again I don't think we need to on this point.

81
00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:55,880
Speaker 1: I mean I'll tell you, I mean, look, a lot

82
00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:57,600
Speaker 1: of the numbers people who have to make money for

83
00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,760
Speaker 1: a living still putting money into China. Right. I'm not

84
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,160
Speaker 1: saying that's patriotic, but I'm saying, you know, they're probably

85
00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,280
Speaker 1: not stupid. And not just Americans. You know a lot

86
00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,080
Speaker 1: of people in Japan and Europe and so forward. So

87
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,040
Speaker 1: I think, by the way, where people put their money

88
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 1: is always such an important indicator. I think it's one

89
00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 1: of the one of the best arguments when people talk

90
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 1: about climate change. You know, I'm down here in Miami

91
00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,240
Speaker 1: and I keep saying, if I went up somebody said, look,

92
00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,360
Speaker 1: you know, you're on a thirty year mortgage right now.

93
00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,320
Speaker 1: You just bought this house on the beach, but I'm

94
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:27,760
Speaker 1: going to take it off your hands at half price

95
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:29,840
Speaker 1: because climate change. You know, listen to Al Gore the

96
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 1: Barack Obama's house in Martha's Viney. Yeah, Mount Martha's Vede.

97
00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,280
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gave me a big break on

98
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 1: that one either. They'll laugh in my face, so we

99
00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:37,680
Speaker 1: all know what the reality is with that one. I

100
00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 1: think the money going into China is still an important

101
00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,520
Speaker 1: indicator though to that end, but there does seem to

102
00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:46,719
Speaker 1: be this It's interesting to me. I remember back in

103
00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,960
Speaker 1: the nineties early nineties, really it was Japan is going

104
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,400
Speaker 1: to take over the world, and specifically Japan was going

105
00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:57,120
Speaker 1: to buy America as in, own our corporations, own our

106
00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,400
Speaker 1: real estate, our land, our food supply, and then realize,

107
00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,839
Speaker 1: oh wait a second, Japan actually has huge demographic issues

108
00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,120
Speaker 1: and is going to go into a long period of

109
00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:11,000
Speaker 1: economic stagnation and real and decline. Um. I wonder how

110
00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,000
Speaker 1: we look at this then, and how we contextualize where

111
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,400
Speaker 1: we are visa v. China, Because I just brought up

112
00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,440
Speaker 1: Peter Zihad, and look, I'm gonna give the guy credit

113
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:20,800
Speaker 1: for it is very interesting, covers a lot of ground.

114
00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,360
Speaker 1: You know, speaks eloquently, so I don't I'm not criticizing him.

115
00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,760
Speaker 1: I just think it's interesting to hear. I want more

116
00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,520
Speaker 1: really smart people and people like you, people who focus

117
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: on these issues, to be sharing the different perspectives and

118
00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,080
Speaker 1: ideas on this, and sometimes that means disagreeing publicly so

119
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,880
Speaker 1: we can get closer to what the most likely reality is,

120
00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 1: the most likely truth that we face. UM. Gordon Chang

121
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,400
Speaker 1: another good friend of mine. I'm sure you know Gordon,

122
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,680
Speaker 1: and I've known Gordon for over a decade now. I

123
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,680
Speaker 1: mean he kind of smiles about it. But he wrote

124
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,360
Speaker 1: a book I think in the early two thousands, the

125
00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:57,400
Speaker 1: Coming Collapse, The Coming Collapse of China, and we've been

126
00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,240
Speaker 1: I mean, and Gordon is super knowledgeable on Chinese talking

127
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,080
Speaker 1: about it. I mean he just you know, you want

128
00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,000
Speaker 1: you want to talk about Den Chauping, and you want

129
00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 1: to talk about you know, uh Maoist Industrial Revolution and

130
00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:11,320
Speaker 1: all these things. And he's an encyclopedia. But China hasn't

131
00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,360
Speaker 1: collapsed and it's been like twenty years since he wrote

132
00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,720
Speaker 1: the book something like that. So what is it with?

133
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,200
Speaker 1: Why Why is there this China's about a collapse? China

134
00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,839
Speaker 1: is about to collapse when China, for thirty years now

135
00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:25,000
Speaker 1: overall has just gotten a whole lot wealthier and more influential,

136
00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,800
Speaker 1: you know what I mean? It seems like there's a dissonance. Yeah,

137
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,279
Speaker 1: I mean, I think let me answer the japan thing first.

138
00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,040
Speaker 1: If they if they conk out where Japan has has

139
00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,320
Speaker 1: sort of flattened, plateaued, and their debates about where the

140
00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,000
Speaker 1: Japanese actually are, I think they'd be like two or

141
00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,280
Speaker 1: three times the size of the American economy, So that

142
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:41,960
Speaker 1: that shouldn't give us too much comfort. I mean, bear

143
00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,359
Speaker 1: in mind that Japan was you know, I guess about

144
00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,719
Speaker 1: half today, maybe a third of our population. So I

145
00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:49,840
Speaker 1: mean it's just a different order man, too. China's one

146
00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,680
Speaker 1: point four billion people. Yeah, it's declining, but there's still

147
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:54,440
Speaker 1: a lot of people, right, I mean a lot more

148
00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,000
Speaker 1: than we have. So I think that's we shouldn't take

149
00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:01,680
Speaker 1: too much, too much a comfort from the Japan example

150
00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:03,480
Speaker 1: in that respect. I mean, why do people do it?

151
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,760
Speaker 1: I mean it's like the people who predicted the ten

152
00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 1: of the last whatever, three recessions or something like that, right.

153
00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,920
Speaker 1: I mean it doesn't mean they're wrong, right, But I

154
00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,000
Speaker 1: mean the market analogy is not a bad one actually here,

155
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,680
Speaker 1: because timing is really important. You know, for instance, if

156
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,200
Speaker 1: we go drill down onto the Taiwan issue, if we're

157
00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 1: ready for a Taiwan fight in twenty thirty five and

158
00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 1: the Chinese are ready in twenty thirty doesn't matter, you

159
00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:26,840
Speaker 1: know what I mean. So I think it's I mean,

160
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 1: I worry that it's a little bit of wish fulfillment,

161
00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:33,720
Speaker 1: that wish is too strong. I mean, I don't want

162
00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,360
Speaker 1: to say that about these guys, but I mean it's

163
00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:38,240
Speaker 1: a little bit, you know, and there's also I will say,

164
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,920
Speaker 1: how you look at it, look at if you're trying

165
00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 1: to make an important analytical point and maybe get you know,

166
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,240
Speaker 1: hit that bull's eye in terms of like, let's say

167
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,000
Speaker 1: a really you know, counter market bet. That's one thing.

168
00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,080
Speaker 1: But if you're if you're dealing with the American you know,

169
00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,720
Speaker 1: the fate of the American Republic, I think you should

170
00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,320
Speaker 1: prepare more for you know, kind of less risky is

171
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,600
Speaker 1: sort of bet. So the question that I'm gonna post

172
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,320
Speaker 1: to Bridge here in a second is what does a

173
00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: Chinese invasion of Taiwan look like and what happens? Which

174
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:08,840
Speaker 1: is really important. People are gonna want to hear about that.

175
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:10,560
Speaker 1: But I want to step back from it for a

176
00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,680
Speaker 1: second because I mentioned Bridge and I go way back

177
00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,840
Speaker 1: to the Georgetown drinking days of our early twenties. I

178
00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,280
Speaker 1: don't have any photos unfortunately, of it. But if I did,

179
00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,800
Speaker 1: you know what I would do with I would put

180
00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,280
Speaker 1: them on legacy box. I would send them in on

181
00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,840
Speaker 1: legacy box because then I could I could digitize them

182
00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:29,400
Speaker 1: and text in the Bridge and say, my god, look

183
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,640
Speaker 1: at your haircut, look at mine. It's been twenty years,

184
00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 1: but see that's the fun thing about Legacy Box. They

185
00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,720
Speaker 1: can take old photos, video, super eight film, VHS tapes

186
00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,839
Speaker 1: and they can transfer it into digital format, so then

187
00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 1: it's safe forever. Because by the way, photos old videotape,

188
00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:45,840
Speaker 1: so how do you even play that? And it degrades

189
00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,680
Speaker 1: over time. So now is the time to transfer all

190
00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,720
Speaker 1: your old media into new media digital media, so it's safe,

191
00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:55,960
Speaker 1: you can keep it and you can share it for

192
00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 1: many many years to come. So I've done this before

193
00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,800
Speaker 1: and it is such an e process. They send you

194
00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:02,600
Speaker 1: a box in the mail, you fill it with your stuff,

195
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:06,439
Speaker 1: your VHS tape, super eight film, whatever you got, and

196
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 1: then they hand transfer all of it into digital media,

197
00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,160
Speaker 1: so things like a link in the cloud or even

198
00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,280
Speaker 1: a thumb drive. They send it right back to you

199
00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,760
Speaker 1: with all of your original media too, so you keep

200
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,240
Speaker 1: all that as well. It's great. You gotta get started

201
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:19,719
Speaker 1: in this, it's a great project. At the beginning of

202
00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,440
Speaker 1: the year. Go to legacy box dot com slash buck

203
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,920
Speaker 1: to take advantage of this great discount offer because we're

204
00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:31,439
Speaker 1: getting you fantastic pricing right now. Legacybox dot com slash buck.

205
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:36,840
Speaker 1: That's legacy box dot com slash buck and you're gonna

206
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,160
Speaker 1: love your legacy box stuff now that you've got this

207
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:44,559
Speaker 1: all squared away bridge, What happens if I just at

208
00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,360
Speaker 1: the broadest level, top down and drill down on however

209
00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,400
Speaker 1: you want, We wake up, we get we get word

210
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,200
Speaker 1: that China has invaded Taiwan. What does that look like?

211
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,600
Speaker 1: And what happens? I think, just to be really straight,

212
00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,080
Speaker 1: I think it is a massive attack on Taiwan and

213
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,600
Speaker 1: probably at this point an attack on US and probably

214
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,520
Speaker 1: Japanese and maybe Australian forces at least in the region.

215
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,319
Speaker 1: And here's why. And I think you can see an

216
00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:13,920
Speaker 1: illustration of why that makes sense relatively speaking, based on

217
00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,600
Speaker 1: the Ukraine experience, which is the real lesson of Ukraine

218
00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:19,840
Speaker 1: for Hijinping is not don't try. But if you're going

219
00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 1: to try, don't mess around, you know, and you could

220
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,880
Speaker 1: use you could use a more barnyard epithet if you wanted.

221
00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,320
Speaker 1: I mean, that's really what what it is is, leave

222
00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,640
Speaker 1: nothing to chance. If you were thinking of sending two missiles,

223
00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,280
Speaker 1: send six. If you were thinking somebody was going to defect,

224
00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,120
Speaker 1: kill him. And that's especially the case when you're dealing

225
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,960
Speaker 1: with something like an amphibious invasion. If you're crossing a

226
00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,040
Speaker 1: land border in a flat territory, you can creep across,

227
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,439
Speaker 1: maybe come back, you know, go back, go back. That's

228
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,600
Speaker 1: that's not the case with an amphibious invasion. If you're

229
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,440
Speaker 1: going to do it, you gotta go in. You got

230
00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,440
Speaker 1: to go in big. And I think the Chinese are

231
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:51,880
Speaker 1: if they haven't already understood that, I think they're going

232
00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,440
Speaker 1: to understand. And this is why I'm less worried about

233
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,439
Speaker 1: things like a blockade or a seizure of the offshore islands.

234
00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:58,719
Speaker 1: I think what they're going to do, and they think

235
00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:00,400
Speaker 1: the Americans are going to come in at this point.

236
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,520
Speaker 1: So that means get your blow in early and effectively.

237
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,920
Speaker 1: And that's something like in effect a Japanese attack in

238
00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,520
Speaker 1: December and January forty one, forty two, But that could

239
00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,480
Speaker 1: be more effective and more lasting than the Japanese attack.

240
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:20,960
Speaker 1: Was How do we stack up versus Chinese Chinese military

241
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,560
Speaker 1: capabilities in that feed or in this circumstance, as in,

242
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,160
Speaker 1: you know, do what are our trump cards or what

243
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,480
Speaker 1: are our advantages and what are theirs? Where are the

244
00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 1: areas where we've never had to handle their capabilities in

245
00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:35,840
Speaker 1: a certain realm or certainly never come up against anything

246
00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:40,680
Speaker 1: quite like it, and therefore we could face the unexpected. Well,

247
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,160
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, in a sense, this is the

248
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,760
Speaker 1: trillion dollar question, and I think the bottom line would

249
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 1: be that it is very competitive, and it's trending in

250
00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,920
Speaker 1: a bad direction, at least in this decade. I mean,

251
00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,520
Speaker 1: that's part of the reasons why I'm so concerned about,

252
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,600
Speaker 1: say twenty twenty seven, or a little after, or maybe

253
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,240
Speaker 1: a little before, is because there's reason to think that

254
00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,880
Speaker 1: that might be their optimal time to move. So if

255
00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,720
Speaker 1: you look at back why wars have happened, They've often

256
00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,559
Speaker 1: happened because an aggressor said I may not be perfectly ready,

257
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,400
Speaker 1: but I'm never going to be ready or relative to

258
00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,839
Speaker 1: the enemy, then I will be right now. So, for instance,

259
00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:13,839
Speaker 1: in the nineteen thirty nine the German High command was

260
00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:15,800
Speaker 1: reluctant to go to war, but Hitler said, look, we're

261
00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,120
Speaker 1: readier than the Allies and they're rearming, so this is

262
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 1: our best chance. So what are the fundamental advantages. I mean,

263
00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,600
Speaker 1: there's a lot of technology going on. I'd say what

264
00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,680
Speaker 1: you'd say on that is it's become a lot more competitive.

265
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,319
Speaker 1: The Chinese appeared to have potentially moved ahead in some areas,

266
00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,400
Speaker 1: like maybe hypersonics. There's concern about some elements of artificial intelligence.

267
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,240
Speaker 1: I think when you really boil it down, our advantages.

268
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,080
Speaker 1: They have to attack across eighty to one hundred miles

269
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,240
Speaker 1: of water, which is difficult, very difficult again, and subordinate

270
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,880
Speaker 1: country effectively that doesn't want to be subordinate, and their

271
00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,680
Speaker 1: advantages they're one hundred miles and were five thousand miles.

272
00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,280
Speaker 1: You know, we got a lot of force in Japan,

273
00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:53,800
Speaker 1: but the Western Pacific is a maritime theater, so it

274
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:58,199
Speaker 1: cuts both ways. Our wheelhouse, traditionally as a military power

275
00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:02,400
Speaker 1: of the last hundred years has been air, space, naval technology.

276
00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,120
Speaker 1: I mean, if you look back Britain, I mean democracies,

277
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,240
Speaker 1: commercial republics like ours. We don't like to throw people

278
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,320
Speaker 1: into the meek grinder. What we're better at is high

279
00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:15,760
Speaker 1: capital intensive things like that. Chinese continental power willing to

280
00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,600
Speaker 1: throw a lot of people into the meek grinder necessary,

281
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,719
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty confident that Chijinping would as well, and

282
00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,560
Speaker 1: that's their advantage. But they're also catching up in a

283
00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,120
Speaker 1: lot of technology areas, and they have the advantage of position,

284
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,080
Speaker 1: and as the aggressor, they may have the advantage with surprise.

285
00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,760
Speaker 1: That's a big factor is whether we'll be able to detect. Now,

286
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 1: we'll probably be able to see a lot of things

287
00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 1: that Chinese are doing, but we won't necessarily be able

288
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,480
Speaker 1: to discern that that's clearly an indicator of an attack.

289
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,480
Speaker 1: How do we go up against them right now to

290
00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 1: the degree that we can discern this air to er

291
00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,079
Speaker 1: Because one thing that everybody that I know who's been

292
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,760
Speaker 1: in theater, or even whether it was a civilian analyst

293
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,720
Speaker 1: like me in a rock and Afghanistan, I could see this.

294
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 1: But talking to friends of mine who are who are frontline,

295
00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,560
Speaker 1: who are soldiers, door kick special operations and all arrest,

296
00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,640
Speaker 1: a total air superiority in theater is something that I

297
00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,880
Speaker 1: think we have come to take for granted. The Ukrainians

298
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,760
Speaker 1: have found out, unfortunately the hard way, that when you

299
00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 1: don't have that, you've got some very big problems. How

300
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 1: do we stack up against the Chinese in an air

301
00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,400
Speaker 1: to air fight, That's a great question. I certainly don't

302
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,320
Speaker 1: think we're gonna be able to have air dominance as

303
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:24,960
Speaker 1: we've become accustomed to, and that's one of the things

304
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,120
Speaker 1: actually in the strategy back when I was in the Pentagon.

305
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:28,760
Speaker 1: They really tried to shift away from as a kind

306
00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,160
Speaker 1: of cultural shift from you know, when you served in

307
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,240
Speaker 1: the Middle East, and I briefly as well for the

308
00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,200
Speaker 1: State Department that you know, there was total military dominance.

309
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,120
Speaker 1: There was no quiet the Tally Bond or the Iraqi insurgents. Right,

310
00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 1: they weren't going to shoot down our sea when thirty

311
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,160
Speaker 1: with an F eighteen or something. That wasn't happening. They

312
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,760
Speaker 1: didn't have artillery basically, you know, maybe here and there,

313
00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 1: but you know, I mean effectively, right, totally different situation.

314
00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,080
Speaker 1: The Chinese are going to be probably attacking in space.

315
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,400
Speaker 1: They have air to air interceptors, they're building stealth fighters,

316
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:59,080
Speaker 1: they're building nuclear powered submarines. The list goes on. They

317
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,920
Speaker 1: got missiles. I think it's going to be narrower. So

318
00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,560
Speaker 1: what the smartest kind of military analysts and senior officers

319
00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 1: talk about is creating sort of openings of opportunity. And

320
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:10,720
Speaker 1: this is where really focusing on what we need to

321
00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 1: do is so important. A lot of this is going

322
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,480
Speaker 1: to be about killing their invasion fleet and their air

323
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,600
Speaker 1: or model that's delivering and sustaining forces on island. We're

324
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:20,840
Speaker 1: never gonna it's never gonna be in nineteen forty five,

325
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 1: we're going to march into Berlin or Tokyo sail in

326
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:25,600
Speaker 1: Tokyo Bay. It's going to be a defeat of the

327
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 1: invasion short of total victory, but that's going to be enough.

328
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,200
Speaker 1: But I think the people that I talk to are

329
00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,160
Speaker 1: the people who talk to the people who are really

330
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,080
Speaker 1: out there at the tip of the spear. They don't

331
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,720
Speaker 1: take our superiority for granted, and that's really important. I

332
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,840
Speaker 1: think that's one thing I really makes me uncomfortable is

333
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 1: when some of our senior political or military figures, hey,

334
00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,280
Speaker 1: we never nobody can can compete with us, And it's like,

335
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,400
Speaker 1: wait a minute, that's not that doesn't that's not the

336
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,440
Speaker 1: kind of attitude we need. We need people who take

337
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 1: nothing for granted, because that's you know. And even if

338
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,240
Speaker 1: even if man for man, woman whatever, woman for woman,

339
00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 1: that we may be better, they got position numbers, they're

340
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 1: probably willing to lose more people. So we really can't

341
00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,120
Speaker 1: take anything for granted. How did the Taiwanese Defense forces

342
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 1: stack up in this situation? And is there a whole

343
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 1: lot more we could be or should be doing for

344
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 1: them to make Taiwan you know, the porcupine so to speak,

345
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,800
Speaker 1: that China is not going to want to handle. That

346
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:24,280
Speaker 1: is another critical question in fact, that Taiwanese forces resolve

347
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 1: and capability might be the biggest X factor we face

348
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 1: because look, it's a lot of this is going to

349
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:31,320
Speaker 1: be in the sea and air and space, but at

350
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 1: the end of the day, the Chinese is going to

351
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:34,120
Speaker 1: be trying to land a lot of forces on the

352
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 1: island and defeat the Taiwanese ground for the taime when

353
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 1: he's military, but particularly ground forces, and how tough they are,

354
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 1: how willing they are to fight that is, and how

355
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: skilled they are is a critical question. We've been pushing

356
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 1: them for a while to shift towards what you could

357
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 1: call asymmetric defense, basically designed to defeat an invasion, and

358
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,480
Speaker 1: their former Chief of Defense, Admiral Lei Shiman, has written

359
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 1: a very good book I think thus far only in Chinese,

360
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: arguing for this. There's a lot of resistance throughout the

361
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 1: Taiwanese system these moves. Actually, I think the political leadership

362
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,399
Speaker 1: is pretty supportive, but that's a big questions when I'm

363
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,760
Speaker 1: trying to get a better sense of But if they're

364
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 1: not willing to fight hard and skillfully. This whole thing

365
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 1: may just be untenable. Yeah, what about the US response,

366
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,360
Speaker 1: as in, will there definitely be one? Do you think

367
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,480
Speaker 1: that there's a real chance that, let's say this, Let's

368
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 1: say it's go time for the Chinese Communist Party and

369
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 1: the People's Liberation Army right in five years, and they

370
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 1: go for it. Whoever the administration is at that point,

371
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 1: Let's just assume it's an American president. We don't know

372
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 1: who it is. Is there a chance that they just

373
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 1: go You know what, Taiwan, we wish you the best.

374
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 1: There is a chance, and that worries me not begain

375
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 1: I think we've talked about this. I mean, stepping back,

376
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,199
Speaker 1: you know, I was against the Iraq War, against the

377
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,800
Speaker 1: intervention in Syria, I was against the long nation building

378
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,880
Speaker 1: mission in Afghanistan. I'm worried about escalation in the context

379
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,840
Speaker 1: of Ukraine, so I'm not I'm not looking for an

380
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 1: excuse to intervene. So I totally get that. In fact,

381
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 1: in a sense, that's kind of where my gut sympathy is.

382
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 1: But here's the reality. I mean, China is a superpower,

383
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 1: and if it's looking to dominate Asia and from there

384
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 1: become globally pre eminent and impose itself on our way

385
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 1: of life. And I think Americans really understand that Taiwan

386
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 1: matters a lot for that because if we especially if

387
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 1: we just back down, what are you know, it's human nature.

388
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 1: What are people going to say, Well, I'm not going

389
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 1: to stick my neck out because the Americans are gonna

390
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,159
Speaker 1: let me go. They're going to come up with another

391
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 1: excuse to say, why, you know, I'm the Philippines or

392
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,679
Speaker 1: I'm Vietnam. Why they got to cut me off? And

393
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 1: then after that, you know, they're going to isolate South

394
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,919
Speaker 1: Korea and Japan and you know, it sounds like the

395
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 1: Domino theory, and they got us into Vietnam. And I'm

396
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 1: always conscious of that. But the Domino theory has a

397
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,359
Speaker 1: kernel of truth, which is like, you need to know

398
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 1: whether you can trust somebody if you're going to stick

399
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 1: your neck out, And that's really critical. And what I

400
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 1: fear is that somebody would make that decision, and in

401
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,400
Speaker 1: the situation, we get so much worse because a lot

402
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 1: of our allies or partners would cut a deal with China,

403
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:56,879
Speaker 1: but we'd still be stuck because we can't let them

404
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 1: run the world, right, We can't let them run our

405
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 1: own you get run the Asia economy and then dominate us,

406
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 1: but then we'd be in a far worse position. So

407
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 1: my view is laser focus on this like and don't

408
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 1: leave anything to chance. I mean, one of the things

409
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 1: that I really don't like about what I think the

410
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 1: administration is doing is they're kind of cutting it close.

411
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 1: It's too cute. Yeah, we're focusing on Taiwan, but you

412
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: know we're also going to walk and choogum at the

413
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 1: same time and do Ukraine and not raised defense spending

414
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 1: and all that. And it's like, no, no, no no, don't

415
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 1: screw around. Don't get close to fifty percent, because then

416
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: the Chinese are more likely to do it, and we're

417
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 1: more likely to lose. Better to be at seventy five

418
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 1: percent because we can't get to one hundred percent certainty

419
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,719
Speaker 1: seventy five eight and then the Chinese won't do it,

420
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:35,719
Speaker 1: and then we won't have to make this decision. But

421
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 1: I think the real and just one last point. The

422
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 1: other thing is if we screw around and equivocate, hey,

423
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 1: you know, let's wait a week or two weeks, it'll

424
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 1: be disastrous. So we've got to be like all in

425
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,119
Speaker 1: from the beginning, and he makes a huge military difference.

426
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 1: So that's like, I just think we've got to be

427
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 1: clear in our own mind. And if we're clear and

428
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 1: if we're capable, I think the Chinese will decide not

429
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,360
Speaker 1: to do it because Maza don't want to take over

430
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: Taie one. But we never did it. He was like

431
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 1: the evilest guy who ever lived, one of them, and

432
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 1: he decided not to do it because he knew he

433
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: would fail. So is there a risk of immediate escalation

434
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 1: against not just the US force that would be responding

435
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Do you think they

436
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 1: could go after us elsewhere? I mean any things. Obviously,

437
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 1: we have bases in the Pacific Theater, Hawaii's out there.

438
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: It's a major concentration of US military force, but it's

439
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,199
Speaker 1: a small island chain in the middle of the the Pacific.

440
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 1: I mean, do you think that that escalation is something

441
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 1: to be concerned about or would China limit itself to Well,

442
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 1: if you come into the you know, if you come

443
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 1: into the Taiwan Straits, it's fair game. But other than that,

444
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna leave it there. Absolutely risk. I mean,

445
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 1: I think at this point. Given it, they expect that

446
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 1: Americans probably come in. Then they probably attack throughout the

447
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: Western Pacific, including against Japan, probably Guam other places. And

448
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: I think there's a real possibility, in fact probability, that

449
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 1: they would do some attacks on the homeland of some kind.

450
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 1: Now I think those are likely to be probably matching

451
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 1: to what we would do in attacks on the Chinese mainland,

452
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 1: which would be necessary to be successful in my assessment,

453
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 1: So attacks on military targets, I mean military forces from

454
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 1: the United States would be operating from probably Hawaii or

455
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 1: would be supported from critical parts. And of course the

456
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 1: Chinese have nuclear weapons. But the reality, unfortunately, is that

457
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 1: a homeland is not a sanctuary. And I don't think

458
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 1: the Chinese are crazy, so we have ways of deterring

459
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 1: them from doing things that would be really bloody minded.

460
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: But again, nobody knows how a warlike that would go,

461
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 1: so I'm not confident about it. You know, I'm not sanguine,

462
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 1: but I think there are ways of fighting. And that's

463
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 1: actually a big part of what I tried to argue

464
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 1: in the books. I think, as you know, is how

465
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 1: do we manage escalation as context so we don't get

466
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 1: in a place where were our strategy is insane. We

467
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: would be stupid to follow through on it because that's

468
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: not credible, and if we got to that point, we

469
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: shouldn't do it if it's crazy. How much could we

470
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: count on the literal states Japan, the Philippines, South Korea,

471
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: you know, go go down the list right to be

472
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 1: a meaningful of meaningful assistance and perhaps even direct combatants

473
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: in this Chinese invasion of Taiwan war gaming we're talking about.

474
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 1: I think it depends. I think Australia we could count

475
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 1: on a lot, probably although they're far away so limited impact.

476
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: But Japan increasingly, I think the Japanese have been very

477
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 1: vocal over the last couple of years that they regard

478
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 1: Taiwan as a directly connected to their own security and independence,

479
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 1: and I think they're right. I mean, it's if you know,

480
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 1: in a way, Taiwan is part of the Japanese archipelago.

481
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: I mean the Senkakus, which they're neuralgic about, are within

482
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,880
Speaker 1: I believe, within visual range of Taiwan. So if Taiwan falls,

483
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: the Japanese are in huge trouble. Now, the South Koreans,

484
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: I think, are moving in the right direction under the

485
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: Union government. They've got their handsful with North Korea. So

486
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,959
Speaker 1: I think militarily probably be more about access and political

487
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 1: support Philippines would be very important. I think the new

488
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 1: government under President Marcos is an improvement. A lot of

489
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 1: that's about the ability to use Philippine territory access itself again.

490
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: I mean, look, and I think the Ukraine War again

491
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: as an example here, people love a winner. If we're

492
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: doing well, people are probably going to be more likely

493
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 1: to kind of take some risk and if they can,

494
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: if they can be confidents, if we're getting our tails kicked,

495
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: people might cut a deal, you know. And you know,

496
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: Thailand has been an ally of the United States for decades,

497
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: but in World War Two Thailand signed over to the

498
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: Japanese really quickly and let them through to attack the

499
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 1: British permans Malaya. So I mean, people are gonna go

500
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: where the wind blows a little bit. So that's that's

501
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 1: why it's important that we'd be prepared. Now back to

502
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: the internal dynamics in China for a moment here and

503
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: the coming collapse of China that's been coming for a

504
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 1: very long time to depending on which endels you talk to,

505
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: is there uh so So here's what I wanted to

506
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: pose to you. Really there there was I think it's

507
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: fair to say a buy part is in consensus. What's

508
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 1: starting back, and maybe you could roughly put it at

509
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: the eighties, maybe some a little sooner sooner, a little

510
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: after that. If we do a lot of trade with China,

511
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,239
Speaker 1: we helped to get a whole lot wealthier. We get

512
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 1: China in the wto that the political system there will

513
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: liberalize and improve over time, and that they'll be, you know,

514
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 1: more like a Western European power and less like a

515
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 1: despotic totalitarian communist state that's very aggressive. I think that

516
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 1: has not been true. That's kind of obvious at this point, right,

517
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: I think we could all agree on that. So that

518
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: was a misperception that persisted for a very long time.

519
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: We've allowed our near we've basically paid our near pier

520
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 1: competitor to become what it is, right or I should say,

521
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 1: you know, the Indians make when we criticize them as hey,

522
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: you guys built up the Chinese, don't don't criticize us. Yeah,

523
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 1: and now we're looking to the Indians and saying, hey,

524
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: can you guys kind of help keep China? And it's

525
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: box and they're you know, they got their own problems, right.

526
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: I mean, it's still doing at the Pakistan issue. So

527
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 1: what is what can be done to internally? Is there

528
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: anything can be done to internally make things better so

529
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: that instead of could we win a short term conflict

530
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: with China to defend Taiwan? Did we even get into

531
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: that conflict that area? Would you've already gone into It's

532
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: China doesn't want to do that anymore, you know? Is

533
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 1: that even something we could we could realistically hope and

534
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: or push for. I don't think so. Again, it's possible,

535
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: but I mean, there was a book by a Sky

536
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 1: New Yorker guy uh on China called The Age of Ambition,

537
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: and it got it's something I didn't actually read the

538
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 1: whole book, but yeah, I know, but the point was

539
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 1: that that it describes something more fundamental about human nature,

540
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 1: which is like, the Chinese are super powerful now and

541
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: they expect to be. You know, what you hear from

542
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: the Asian other Asian countries is they're like, you're a

543
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: small country, behave accordingly, you know, listen to number one.

544
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: We expect to be treated as a superpower essentially. So

545
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: I don't see that going away and it's not really.

546
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: I mean, people talk about the Marxist Leninism in and

547
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: that is important, but it's not. I don't think it's

548
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: actually the primary driver of why China is so dangerous.

549
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: I think it's more ambition, aiveness expansive, you know, as

550
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,719
Speaker 1: people get stronger, and if they don't face checkman, it's

551
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: the core of the American system. If they don't face

552
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: checks and balances, then they are more likely to transgress

553
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: others interests. What I would One thing I want to

554
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: point out is that there you're you're you're pointing to

555
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: something that was very real. People like to deny it now,

556
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 1: but it was obviously there, which was, you know, by

557
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: trading with them, we will make them democratic, right. But

558
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: there was a second part of that, which is which

559
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: was even if they don't change, we will still be

560
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: able to outcompete them. And I think this is really

561
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: important point from a kind of new right perspective. I

562
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: think both of you know, both of us have similar

563
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: kind of views on this, which is that was the

564
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: almost the more important part of the argument was like

565
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: even if we let them into the WTO and we

566
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 1: let them take advantage of us, it doesn't matter because

567
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 1: our you know, our perfect free market system is so good.

568
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: Out compete them in that and they'll just make our

569
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: stuff that's been disproved, right, They'll just make our stuff

570
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 1: for Walmart, and you know they can they can keep

571
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: just exactly and in our in our systems more competitive,

572
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: so it'll be more efficient. It's like, and I think

573
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: this is where the industrial policy stuff, whether one thinks

574
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 1: industrial policy or government involved in the economy is abstractly necessary.

575
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: We don't live in the abstract world. We will live

576
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: in a world where the largest economy in the world

577
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: in PPP terms is doing industrial policy on a massive scale.

578
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 1: So it's like, that's the world that we live in.

579
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: And in terms of I mean, you know, the actual

580
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 1: because I don't think it's so interesting if you go

581
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: in and dive a little bit into um North Korean ideology.

582
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: I think there's some interesting comparison people make with with

583
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 1: with North Korean ideology obviously very heavily borrows from Stalinist

584
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: Stalinist Soviet Union, but also borrows very heavily from UH

585
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: from Imperial Japan and some of the racial religious uh,

586
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: you know, ultra nationalism. I mean, you know, North Korea

587
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: it's not. It's not like Marx came up with this

588
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 1: and like, yeah, we're gonna try that, right, There's there's

589
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 1: some different China is even more different in his sense

590
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: because you have the trappings of a communist regime. You

591
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: have what like hundreds, maybe up to a thousand people

592
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 1: in China other than she who make any decisions of

593
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: any real importance within the party right regionally. I mean

594
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,400
Speaker 1: it's not. It's a pretty small group of people overall, who,

595
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 1: as I understand it, are making most of the major

596
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: calls for within the Communist party. And she, of course

597
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: sits atop the whole thing as as the you know,

598
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: the dictator. But is it like a mercantilist authoritarian society

599
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 1: and what because it's people are like, oh, communist China, yes, technically,

600
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 1: but obviously also not technically. There are billionaires walking around

601
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: Beijing and Shanghai who are like, yeah, call me a

602
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: COMMI exactly with entrepreneurial apps and so forth, and fight

603
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: sharing apps and stuff. I mean, look, the Marxist Leninism

604
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: element is real. I actually think Shi Jinping himself thinks

605
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: he's thinks of himself as a dedicated Marxist lenis is

606
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: in some way. But remember his central project is the

607
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It's not workers of

608
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: the World Unite. It's essentially a nationalistic project. And nationalism

609
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 1: is an incredibly powerful force. I mean, to be fair,

610
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: I usually think that we just call nationalism patriotism when

611
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: we don't like it. So it's like the Chinese are

612
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: super super patriotic. I mean not every Chinese obviously, but

613
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: it's you know, and that's another thing, is you know

614
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: in Asia you know today, I mean still so much

615
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: where a lot of our mental models are refracted through

616
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: Europe and there's this post whatever rules based international order

617
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. But like in Asia, nationalism is a

618
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: good thing because nationalism was what allowed them to eject

619
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: the Europeans who exploited them for several hundred years, and

620
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 1: it allows nations to be strong and pursue their interests.

621
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: The Indians are nationalists, Japanese were nationalists kind of, but

622
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: the Koreans are definitely both Koreans, the South Koreans too,

623
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: they're very nationalistic. Vietnamese they kicked us out, the French,

624
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: you know, etc. So it's like, I don't to me

625
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 1: that that's sort of it's not inherently a bad thing

626
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: Chinese nationalism or patriotism, but we can't let it run

627
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: rough shot. Something else. I want to ask you one

628
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: thing I know from one of the things I learned

629
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: in the CIA that was super effective, especially when you

630
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: have to be moving around to whatever the issue is, right,

631
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: this is the thing you become inherently kind of a generalist. People.

632
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: Look why I did a Rock and then Afghanistan. Yeah,

633
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: because skill set for one Obama administration comes in after Bush.

634
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: It was all a rock, they moved Afghanistan. And so

635
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: you can't know everything. So you got to know the

636
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 1: people who know. Right, if you can discern who actually knows,

637
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: like you land on the ground in cobble or whatever,

638
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: you figure out pretty quickly who knows what the heck

639
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: they're talking about, and you can piece it together. It's

640
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: kind of like the allegory of the cave, right, like

641
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: you just you don't have to see it, you just

642
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: have to know who can see it. On the wall

643
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: and on Russia, the people that I know who understand

644
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: that country as as subject matter experts have been kind

645
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: of banging this rum for years that we're always told that,

646
00:30:54,960 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: especially for the last whatever to six years. Putin's so evil, dictate, dictator.

647
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: Everyone hates him. He's hanging you know, well he's not

648
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 1: hanging on by a thread, but you know, if they could,

649
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: they get rid of him in a second. And it's like, well, actually,

650
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: whether it's fair to think this way or not, the

651
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 1: Russian people in the post Soviet collapse were completely humiliated

652
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: through the nineties and the creation of a Russian middle

653
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 1: class of sorts and certainly of a Russian elite that

654
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 1: pads a lot of pockets and pays a lot of bribes,

655
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: but even more so, just more general economic product has

656
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: all occurred under Vladimir Putin's watch, and in essence, there's

657
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: a very much a quid pro quo constituency of everyday

658
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: Russians who are like, no, we actually like Putin. Now

659
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: that might have changed a bit in the Ukraine era,

660
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: but that's a reality that people that I know who

661
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: know Russia say never gets talked about. You know, it's just, oh,

662
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: he's bad, he's a dictator. He stole the twenty sixteen

663
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: election for Trump. Like, there's a very is a caricature

664
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: of him. Yeah, he's a bad guy. Yeah, he's done

665
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: terrible things, of course, but if you want understand internally,

666
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 1: I bring it up because in the context of China,

667
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: I was in Beijing in twenty nineteen. I was in Beijing.

668
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: I was doing a you know, economic kind of economic

669
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: junket for for a financial firm, and I went to China.

670
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 1: I went to Beijing and Shanghai. And one thing that

671
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: came across very clearly from discussions with some to the

672
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: degree that they were willing to talk to us openly

673
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: and honestly, is they the Chinese economy has been a miracle.

674
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: Like we think of China as a totalitarian society that

675
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: doesn't allow free speech, which is all true, and the

676
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: weakers and the terrible things, but they've also brought hundreds

677
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: of millions of people out of agrarian subsistence poverty, you know,

678
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: gradian subsistence living and poverty, dire poverty, and so like.

679
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: There there's actually more support for the Communist Party as

680
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: it is than the West often realizes, just because of

681
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: the economic benefits. Like how do you how do you

682
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 1: view that? I know it's different than the Russian context,

683
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: but I see some similarity. But I think I did

684
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: an analogy, and I mean, I think this, this gets

685
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: to something. I mean just I've been kind of feeling

686
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: this recently. I mean, like so much of the discourse

687
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: on foreign policy is like it's all about a morality

688
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: tale and it's like I sometimes wonder, like am I

689
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: on crazy pills? Because like my view is I'm looking

690
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: at this and trying to figure out what's in the

691
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: best long term enlightened interests of the American people. Like

692
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: I don't mean to be moralistic or whatever about it.

693
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: I'm saying that's just like my frame. So if you're

694
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: going to advance the interest to the American people, like

695
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: if you're in let's say we were the trustee of

696
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: the the defund of the American people, you wouldn't trust

697
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: an investor who was like, oh my gosh, you know

698
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: we're going to get off like a natural gas in

699
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: like the next five years. Like you'd want somebody who

700
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: actually could ensure that you sustain the money so that

701
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: kids could go to college and whatever and Gramma could

702
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: retire and so forth. Right, So the way you're looking

703
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: at and the way I look at Russia and China

704
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: is like, well, what is there? And you know what

705
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: ideally how can you make it the best? But but ultimately,

706
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: like you have to accurately assess the environment and you

707
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: were intelligence officer like in order to make good policy

708
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: decisions and and so like Putin has become a sort

709
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: of um like like a stock character like Paradise loss

710
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 1: kind of thing. If we're going on the literary route,

711
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: you know, with Plato and stuff, I mean like a

712
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: morality play like almost and it's like, well, Putin's an

713
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 1: evil guy, has done evil things like no question. But

714
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: your point about the Russians is you know my understanding,

715
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: and I don't improve this. I hope Russia becomes a

716
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 1: democracy and all that, but like they regard the nineties

717
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 1: as an epic disaster and whether they like Putin or whatever,

718
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: Russian political culture and humiliating by the way, which to

719
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: the Russian mindset was it even you know they can

720
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 1: it's worse. I was told this by a Polish friend

721
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: of mine, and I think it was so astute. She

722
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: said to me when she says, buck and we're talking

723
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 1: about putinans Dugas, Buck, would you have to stand is

724
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: that nothing brings the Russians together like suffering. But they're

725
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 1: very but they're very proud. They're very proud. They've sacrificed

726
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 1: a lot. That's right, so that they will sacrifice I

727
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: make it worthwhile. That's right. They will sacrifice the right.

728
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 1: But if you humiliate, you know, but but humiliation to

729
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: the sense of honor, that is, that is the thing

730
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 1: that they cannot abide, right exactly, and that that's my impression.

731
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: I'm not a Russian, but I mean, the interesting thing

732
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: is the Poles, for instance, my general impression, who hate

733
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: the Russians and are against the invasion. They understanding me.

734
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: They're they're they're not. They don't have any delusions about

735
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: the Russians. It's not a surprise that the friend who

736
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: was telling you that as a Pole, because they don't

737
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: they don't have like this idea that the Russians are

738
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: suddenly going to turn over a new leaf and become

739
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 1: a bunch of flower children. Now on the Chinese, I

740
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: think the point also is just like think of the

741
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: mental map, like you know, people like us who grew

742
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: up I mean my you know, my parents with the

743
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: college whatever, like you know, it was some there was

744
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: the Vietnam and Watergate, but like come on, if you're

745
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 1: Chinese and you're in your forties. That means your parents

746
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: went through the uh, the Cultural Revolution, which was literally,

747
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 1: I mean really insane, I mean mass starvation and struggle

748
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 1: sessions in public. I think she's paying in their own

749
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: she's in paying himself. Praise mother, I mean family, yeah,

750
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: and so and your parents impossibly you excuse me, your

751
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: grandparents and possibly your parents were there for the Great

752
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: Lead Forward, which in which more people died I think

753
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: than any other event in human history. It's up there

754
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 1: the civil the Civil War, and Japanese occupation, which any

755
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 1: one of these is way beyond the conception of Americans

756
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 1: as to the amount of suffering. You go back into

757
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: the ninth century, go box, the rebellion, the typing, So

758
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: it's like this is the scale of disaster and suffering

759
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: is totally different. And they also are very proud, right,

760
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: I mean, they considered themselves its traditionally called the Middle Kingdom.

761
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 1: I mean this is a little bit of fortune cookie

762
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 1: analysis on my part, but I think it's fundamentally true,

763
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: which is that they expect to be respected and they

764
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 1: feel like they put up with a lot. So the

765
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 1: notion that I mean, there are people in China, I'm

766
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: sure who want to live in a democracy. But the

767
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: question is do they have the power? Do they have

768
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: the courage? You know what? I mean to say that

769
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 1: in a moralistic way, like I don't. I mean the people,

770
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,919
Speaker 1: for instance, who protested against the COVID stuff, who knows

771
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 1: what happened to them? And to throw your life away

772
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: in futility is I mean, that's a lot. But I

773
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: think you're right. I mean, this is the way we

774
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 1: need to look at them, and then we need to

775
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,439
Speaker 1: try to push them in the direction that's that's that's

776
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: most most practical. And in the fact that the fact

777
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: that the premier of China, Shijunping, was denounced by his

778
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 1: own mother as part of the culture revolution struggle sessions

779
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: we're talking about, and his half sister was essentially persecuted

780
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: to death by mobs saying that she was disloyal, and

781
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: she lived in a cave for a while to try

782
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: to flee, Yeah, try to flee the Maoist revolution. I

783
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 1: mean literally, this guy lived in a cave to avoid

784
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: further persecution and murder of his own family by the

785
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 1: communist system that he now leads. I mean, so you

786
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 1: try to get into the psychology a little bit of

787
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: the people that are making the decisions here, and that's

788
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: just on this I was looking into this, and I

789
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: mean this is deeply rooted in the Leninist party system,

790
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: and by the way, the Nationalists also had this. I

791
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 1: mean the amount of suffering and sacrifice and brutality that's

792
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 1: just built in. That's like in the warp and woof

793
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: of the political culture there. There's an expression. I used

794
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 1: to go to China and people would say, there's an

795
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 1: anaconda wrapped around every chandelier in these nice rooms, that

796
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 1: there's this like looming menace and potential for violence and

797
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 1: death that we just we just discount, thank God for

798
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: our for our own fortune. But that's the kind of

799
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: thing we're dealing with. I mean, the the Holidamor, which

800
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: I think now gets people just have done a lot

801
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 1: more Ukraine thinking and research for obvious reasons, so people

802
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: know more about the Holidomore, the forced starvation of millions

803
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,439
Speaker 1: of Ukrainians by the Soviets and and what happened there,

804
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: but it's still not known, not at that well known,

805
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: i think, relative to the level of atrocity in the

806
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 1: twentieth century. But the Chinese Communist Party and the mass

807
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: starvation and the Great Famine which occurred to your point,

808
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 1: within memory of grandparents of people right now, right, I

809
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: mean you could have been of a generation where your parents, um,

810
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 1: you know, rather our our grandparents, our grandparents, your parents

811
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: would have been alive children, right right. So yeah, so

812
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: that just shows how recent this was and how tens

813
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 1: of millions of people died. Tens of millions of people died.

814
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: I think the I mean the estimate about twenty I

815
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: think twenty to forty is usually what they say, right exactly, Yeah,

816
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 1: I mean, but yeah, and that's only one event. I

817
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 1: mean the Civil War, and I mean and the Civil War.

818
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,720
Speaker 1: I threw this example on the Twitter. But like the PLA,

819
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,839
Speaker 1: the Communist Party army, while they were towards the end

820
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: of the Civil War, there's a nationalist I mean, they

821
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:45,760
Speaker 1: really fought hard. But the Communist army besieged an important

822
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: city in Manchuria, and they said we will let nationalist

823
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 1: soldiers out surrender basically, but not civilians. Even if civilians

824
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 1: wanted to get out, they're not allowed out because it

825
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: put more pressure on the food situation inside the city. So,

826
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 1: you know, hundreds of tens of thousands of maybe over

827
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand civilians died. And that's just one particularly

828
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: famous incident. A tragedy to it too deep. Listen to

829
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: the whole propaganda campaign. It's made by the way people

830
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: go back and look at some of this stuff and

831
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 1: you realize that this is in the middle of the

832
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: twentieth century. This is not a long long time ago.

833
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 1: I think. Wasn't there the sparrows campaign where they convinced

834
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 1: people that the grain shortage there was an acute grain

835
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 1: shortage because the sparrows were eating too much grain. And

836
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: so they went out and started they started telling villagers

837
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,439
Speaker 1: to go kill the sparrows because you know, these little

838
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 1: birds that were all over the place. And then they

839
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: actually I believe that at least this is maybe this

840
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,439
Speaker 1: is something of a of a you know, urban legend

841
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: at this point. But then they they they killed a

842
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 1: lot of these birds, and then there was locusts or

843
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 1: some other invasive species that made it even worse than

844
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: a point being, They created all kinds of new ways

845
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 1: to make a miserable situation even more miserable, and there

846
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: was never any not only was there no political accountability

847
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: for this. They're still in charge. I mean effectively the same.

848
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,240
Speaker 1: The system is still in charge, and so we're dealing

849
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: with just a much wealthier version of the system that

850
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: presided over catastrophe, mass starvation, and repression on a scale

851
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: that reaches the worst depths of what we saw through

852
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: in the twentieth century. And now we have Chijianping and

853
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 1: they've got nukes and they want to go after Taiwan.

854
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 1: So it feels like a rough situation. What is your

855
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 1: what's the most positive view of how this is going

856
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: to play out between US and China, say over the

857
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 1: next five to ten years, Like, what's the we get

858
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: it right and handle them in a way that shows

859
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 1: some dexterity on the US and an allied part so

860
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 1: that it may not sound like it, But in a way,

861
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: I'm kind of optimistic relative to some people on the

862
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: China issue because I think a lot of this just

863
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: boils down to the military balance. Because there's a lot

864
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 1: of talk and there's sort of the sophisticated fancy view

865
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 1: like this is as much an economic and ideological and

866
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 1: societal competition in YadA, YadA, YadA. I actually don't think

867
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 1: that's really true. I think what we're seeing is the

868
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: United States itself, but many other countries diversifying away from China.

869
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: I think we're going to continue trading with China, but

870
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 1: people now know, hey, I don't want to have all

871
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: my a set amnifin or ibuprofen or penicillan made in China. Right,

872
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,280
Speaker 1: So that's that's gonna take place, right, and the Chinese

873
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: are going to have difficulty using their economic leverage or

874
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: they don't have any soft power. Nobody wants to like

875
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 1: turn into this society, right, so like they don't, they're

876
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 1: gonna find it difficult to say, hey, Taiwan, give up

877
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: and fall under our shadow, or else we're gonna cut

878
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 1: off you know, your iPhones, like it doesn't work, and

879
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 1: they've tried it. They're trying in Australia. It's not working.

880
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: So that's actually that makes me more sanguine. That's partially

881
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: our own experience. I mean, you saw this when you're

882
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,799
Speaker 1: in the government. Our sanctions don't work that well. I

883
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,720
Speaker 1: mean they're not even working that well against the Russians

884
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 1: right now. The sanctions, I find, is a talking point

885
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: for diplomacy, so it doesn't look toothless. Basically, that's generally

886
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 1: what in class, it's what they understand it's it's easy

887
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: to use. Congress can pass it. What that means though,

888
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:06,240
Speaker 1: is the military piece. They war and aggression can work

889
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 1: though war can pay. I mean, the reason California and

890
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 1: Texas and the southwestern states are American is because of

891
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 1: a successful aggressive war. Right, so that can work. But

892
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: if we get that right, I actually think will be

893
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 1: okay because the Chinese then will have an incentive. As

894
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,359
Speaker 1: much as they would love to dominate the world, they're

895
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 1: not going to have a plausible route to do it,

896
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: and they'll be forced to deal. And I did like

897
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 1: to keep it simple stupid, you know. Yeah, there has

898
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 1: been a recognition. One of the things I always say

899
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 1: that Trump does not getting nearly enough credit for is

900
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: that with very few exceptions, I knew a few super

901
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 1: trade policy nerds who even early in the Trump administration,

902
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 1: you know, outside of the administration, but people just out

903
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: there we're saying, no, he's actually right about the China thing,

904
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: like we have to do something. We're just in a

905
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 1: one way ste hundred years that's going to be the thing,

906
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: you know, China, And you had to call it out

907
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: in an adversarial way because otherwise it was just fluff,

908
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 1: and it was a one way trade war already. You know,

909
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 1: you could either recognize what was going on or you

910
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: could just keep saying, no, we don't want to rock

911
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 1: the boat. It's like they're rocking the boat all over

912
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 1: the place. So Trump, for his all of his pugnacious inclinations,

913
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 1: was I think spot on on that. And you know

914
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: this because the Biden administration has basically continued and with

915
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: the Trump policies with regard to China, and he did

916
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: that over the Oh, trade wars lead to real wars.

917
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: A lot of people on the right were very, oh

918
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 1: my gosh, he's amaniac on this. Yey. He was totally

919
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: right on that. But I think it's also forced a

920
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 1: I mean, and I want to ask you, do you

921
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 1: think we've reached the point of enough of an understanding

922
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 1: that domestic industry, especially for things like silicon chips, things

923
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: that we need you know, um, that we have to

924
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 1: have it here? Actually that outsourcing production to a more

925
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 1: developing economy to the degree that if they shut off

926
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 1: their supply, we're screwed. That's not a good plan. Well,

927
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,359
Speaker 1: I hope. So, I mean again, then that gets back

928
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 1: to that, can we outcompete China if they're doing, as

929
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: you say, one way trade war. I think that's exactly right.

930
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 1: So no, I mean, I think we can maintain summer

931
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 1: lines there, but I think we should totally come bring

932
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: stuff back home. I think some of it is going

933
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 1: to these supply chains, from what I can tell, are

934
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 1: so complex. We're not going to bring the whole thing back,

935
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: but it's more a matter of degree. We're going to

936
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 1: bring more stuff back. And that's good for I think

937
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 1: the kind of objectives that many across the political spectrum.

938
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 1: I mean, people like us, I think on the right,

939
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:24,879
Speaker 1: but you know, the Rocannas of the world that Matt

940
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: Stoller's on the left also want people to have good

941
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: jobs and be able to support families and all that

942
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 1: war and cast all that kind of thing. So that's good.

943
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 1: The other thing that is really necessary in this front is,

944
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: if I'm right, that you really got to get the

945
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,839
Speaker 1: military balance right. And by the way, that's another area

946
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 1: where the Bide administration has been continuing the Trump administration,

947
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: and I have to admit in some ways they're doing

948
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 1: a better job. I mean, I kind of hate to

949
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: admit it, but in terms of actually implementing that they're

950
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 1: carrying it forward. They're not going as fast as I

951
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 1: would want and with the urgency and focus that I

952
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 1: would want. But I can't deny that they actually are

953
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:54,959
Speaker 1: moving forward. But what I would say is we need

954
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: a defense industrial base that can produce at scale and quickly.

955
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 1: We don't have it, and that it's got to be

956
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 1: at home or in really trusted places. Yeah, you know,

957
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 1: I mean Australia or Canada or whatever. By the way,

958
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 1: I just wanted to look it up because I was

959
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,479
Speaker 1: trying to remember the name because I thought that would

960
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 1: that would trigger more remembrance of us. Yes, it was.

961
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 1: It was Great Lead Forward, so not really Cultural Revolution era.

962
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,800
Speaker 1: Great Lead Forward though. There was the four Pests campaign

963
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 1: and there are these unbelievable posters that that existed in

964
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 1: Maoist China of the Menace of the sparrow. It was sparrows, mosquitos, rats,

965
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 1: and flies. And so they actually decided to and this

966
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 1: is because obviously the grain harvests were way down. They

967
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: didn't have enough food for everybody, so this is leading

968
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 1: into the Great Famine. Uh, they decided to go on

969
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: this mass extermination campaign of the Eurasian tree sparrow which is,

970
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: you know, like pigeons and sparrows in America, very very

971
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 1: common in China, and they killed so many of the

972
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 1: sparrows that the locust population boomed and they had locust plates.

973
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: This actually happened, So that gives you a sense of

974
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: it's kind of yeah, it's it's maoist Chinese version of

975
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: you know this book. I mean, I was gonna say

976
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: it's academic, but you know, that's that's your wheelhouse of seeing,

977
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: like a state by the guy at Yale, where he

978
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 1: just goes through it's very dry, but he goes through

979
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 1: these different occasions where you get historically, these world class

980
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 1: experts to just come up with a plan to like

981
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: completely revolutionize, not in the crazy way we saw in

982
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union and in China where it was absolute catastrophe,

983
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: because by the way, those weren't experts, you know, these

984
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 1: are these were the thuggish commissars who who couldn't add,

985
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 1: who are like, yeah, let's just like melt all the

986
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 1: plowshares um. But in the case of German, one of

987
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 1: the one of the case studies is German forestry, and

988
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: I think the way I know this is super This

989
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: is where we get to the sexy stuff on this

990
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 1: podcast wherever it's like, yeah, sign you up. German forestry

991
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: in I think it was the mid nineteenth century and

992
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 1: they they decided they had this whole campaign, you know,

993
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: across you know, the German States, but this idea caught

994
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 1: hold in Germany of you need to plant one kind

995
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:04,239
Speaker 1: of tree symmetrically in rows in a way that will

996
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 1: increase the yield. And you know, and this is basically

997
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 1: mathematize and systematize the planting of trees. And they had

998
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 1: this whole thing, and what they didn't realize is that

999
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: made them if you get one kind of pest for

1000
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: that tree, you are screwed. If you don't have underbrush,

1001
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: if you don't have you know, you don't have the

1002
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: other plan. Anyway, it was a total and utter disaster.

1003
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: And the smartest people in forest stry management in the

1004
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 1: world at that time thought this is gonna be a

1005
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 1: great idea. So that's what that book goes into, which

1006
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: I always thought was so interesting to be Oh, the

1007
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 1: maoist some of the Maoist propaganda posers about the sparrows military.

1008
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: I want to go back to the US military for

1009
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 1: a second. What are what do we need to do

1010
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,720
Speaker 1: differently than what is being done right now, or prepare

1011
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 1: for the next one. I mean, the biggest cliche we're

1012
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 1: talking about military strategy. You know, whether you're from from

1013
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: Klausowitz the Mike Tyson, everybody has a plan until they're

1014
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: punched in the face, right. I mean, the biggest cliche

1015
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:00,759
Speaker 1: I think of all is, you know, we always preparing

1016
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: to fight the last war, so we know we're not

1017
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 1: going to be doing low intensity counterinsurgency operations as the

1018
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 1: primary US national security focus for the next twenty years.

1019
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: We just because we're not going to do it right.

1020
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 1: That's just not how we might pay somebody else to

1021
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 1: do it. We might Yeah, I certainly hope that that's

1022
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: actually a better that's a better way of putting it.

1023
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 1: What do we need to do to prepare for the

1024
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: actual situations we're seeing, for example, I mean Russia Ukraine.

1025
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: The possibility of that spiraling is I think low, but

1026
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:29,600
Speaker 1: it is it does exist. What do we need to

1027
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 1: do differently from military preparedness standpoint? So I actually think

1028
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:36,359
Speaker 1: we're not preparing for the last war. We're preparing for

1029
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 1: what we think the next war will be. I mean,

1030
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 1: and we in the Trump administration, we shifted the focus

1031
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 1: to China and more folks on Taiwan, and they've carried

1032
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: that forward and in a lot of ways intensified it

1033
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 1: under this administration. So there is a lot of bureaucracy

1034
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 1: in tail in ershia blah blah blah. That's all what

1035
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 1: I would say. The bottom line is is I think

1036
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 1: it's a matter of scale and urgency. So here's the

1037
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 1: analogy that I use. You know, you've gotten a diagnosis

1038
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 1: from your doctor that you're acute heart disease and you you

1039
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 1: need to lose a lot of weight and otherwise you're

1040
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 1: you know, you're you're potentially going to croak, and we

1041
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: are you know, you basically have said I'm going to

1042
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 1: do the diet. I'm doing a diet. I cut out,

1043
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 1: you know, my dessert after lunch, but I'm still having

1044
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:19,919
Speaker 1: some ice cream after dinner. And I'm meaning the French

1045
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 1: friends And it's like this sounds like my diet, by

1046
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 1: the way, But well, I mean that's the thing I

1047
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 1: actually been thinking about it because it's like I'm trying

1048
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: to think of the theory of change, because fundamentally, like

1049
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 1: getting back to that fifty percent or forty five percent.

1050
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 1: Like there was a war game that was done that

1051
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 1: got a lot of press recently by the Center First

1052
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 1: Frugic International Studies, and I had some problems with it.

1053
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,800
Speaker 1: I think it was too confident in our ability. Mostly

1054
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 1: classified wargaming by their own emission is more is more pessimistic.

1055
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 1: M but you know, even they in this optimistics that

1056
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:49,400
Speaker 1: it would be an absolute slug fest. We'd lose more

1057
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: people and things than we've lost since since World War Two.

1058
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 1: And so my feeling is like, well, why are we

1059
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 1: even getting close to that? Why are we even why

1060
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 1: are we even getting close to that point? And people say,

1061
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 1: you know, for our defense industrial base is too slow,

1062
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 1: or we can't you know, reduce forces in Europe while

1063
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 1: the Ukraine War we can't reduce force in the same

1064
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 1: common It's like, well, wait, isn't this our priority? You know,

1065
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 1: the the Chinese are the one who are the heart attack.

1066
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: These other things are like you know, stub toe or

1067
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 1: I mean worse than that. Maybe they're a broken bone.

1068
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 1: But that's the problem that we have to fix. And

1069
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: if there's something, if there's a problem with fixing it,

1070
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 1: if there's a fundamental issue, for instance, the defense industrial

1071
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 1: base we need to produce more ammunitions. It's obvious. So

1072
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 1: the administration is saying, Okay, we're going to authorize the

1073
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 1: defense primes to get multiyear contracts. Oh, that's probably part

1074
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:35,799
Speaker 1: of it, but obviously the whole model is insufficient. If

1075
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 1: this is where we are now, So why doesn't the

1076
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,400
Speaker 1: President get on national television and say here's what we need?

1077
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: And I'm another sign these are the executive words. He's

1078
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,760
Speaker 1: willing to do it over Ukraine. You know, our congressional leadership,

1079
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,320
Speaker 1: a lot of them are willing to do over Ukraine.

1080
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 1: Why don't we do it over over China? That's so

1081
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 1: much more important. So that is the kind of that

1082
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: I think is the It's not that we're doing the

1083
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 1: wrong things. You know the specifics, and I mean, you

1084
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 1: can argue, but nobody really knows how a war like

1085
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 1: that would. You know, we probably we need more anti

1086
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 1: ship missiles, that's an obvious. We need more targeting apparatus,

1087
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 1: space and air breeding, etc. Yes we know that, but

1088
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 1: but that's not solved in micro movements. We've made the

1089
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 1: kind of movements we can. We now need to have

1090
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 1: fundamental muscle movements and that requires political will. What worries you,

1091
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 1: And maybe this would be or you know, when we're

1092
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 1: wrapping up here with you in a couple of minutes,

1093
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 1: But what worries you such that if you had the

1094
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 1: attention of the Biden apparatus, right, so Joe Biden, but

1095
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 1: really also the people around him who are making more

1096
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 1: of the national security decisions. However that shakes out not China, Russia,

1097
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 1: Ukraine or military preparedness. We've talked about that, but if

1098
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 1: if they if there was something else that you're gonna say,

1099
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 1: you really need to pay attention to. And this is

1100
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 1: about what's best for the country. This isn't some you know,

1101
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: partisan shot in the ribs when old man Joe's not

1102
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: paying attention. Is there anything that comes to mind for you?

1103
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 1: Is there anything where you're like, I worry about what

1104
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 1: can happen or what will happen in this area, on

1105
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 1: this issue or in this realm. I mean, obviously the

1106
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 1: you know, the biggest ones we've already hit China, Russia, Ukraine,

1107
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 1: and I think just general military preparedness. But is there

1108
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,400
Speaker 1: anything you know or are you worried about something happening

1109
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,799
Speaker 1: with Iran going nuclear? You worried about the cartels and

1110
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,479
Speaker 1: what it could mean just for you know, destabilization along

1111
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 1: the border. I mean, you tell me, but is there

1112
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 1: anything what would you be like, guys, we need we

1113
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,800
Speaker 1: need to spend some time on this. I look at power,

1114
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 1: so there's nothing in the same order magnitude, and I mean,

1115
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want another pandemic obviously, things like that.

1116
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I think the immigration issue and the

1117
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:37,840
Speaker 1: potential for cartels, I don't think it's I don't know

1118
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 1: why we would just rule out the potential to use

1119
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: I don't know why we would just rule out the

1120
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 1: potential to use military force under any circumstances. I'm not

1121
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 1: saying we should, but I think it's worth considering. I mean,

1122
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 1: that's a huge harm to the American people, and that

1123
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 1: seems something and I don't think this administration has been

1124
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 1: good on it. Within the security realm, I think the

1125
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 1: one that's probably I mean, I think it's possible the

1126
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 1: Israelis will go after you in program in the near term.

1127
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 1: I think there's ways to handle that, particularly by supporting

1128
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 1: the Israelis and the and the you know, the Abraham

1129
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 1: Accords crowd. I think the North Korea situation is really Um,

1130
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 1: it's untenable to keep going like it is because they're

1131
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 1: going to develop the ability to get out beyond our

1132
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 1: missile defenses, which don't work well enough to keep up

1133
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 1: with them. And they're they're pretty crazy, and the South

1134
00:54:23,640 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 1: Koreans are making noises, and I think we need to

1135
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: have a kind of a rethink of what that is.

1136
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: I think I think there are I think there are

1137
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:34,040
Speaker 1: things that we could do. You know, Um, I mean

1138
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 1: I don't like, I'll put I'll put it to you bluntly.

1139
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:37,799
Speaker 1: I don't think at the end of the day, we

1140
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 1: don't want proliferation to our allies. But that is not

1141
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:43,239
Speaker 1: the worst thing. It's not as bad as a North

1142
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 1: Korean nuclear attack on the American homeland. It's not as

1143
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:48,799
Speaker 1: bad as breaking our alliance with South Korea. So you know,

1144
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 1: we need to put we need to have like a

1145
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 1: fundamental rethink of our situation North Korea. And at the

1146
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 1: end of the day, Look, he's your point about the

1147
00:54:55,080 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 1: North Koreans. The Juche model is basically in super independence nationalism.

1148
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 1: Well that applies to China. Actually I didn't know this

1149
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 1: until recently, but the North Korean's kicked out the Chinese

1150
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: in the late fifties from North Korea after the Chinese

1151
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 1: had intervened and saved North Korea from the US and

1152
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: the South Koreans and the UN forces. So I'm not

1153
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 1: I'm not optimistic about North Korea, but I don't think

1154
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 1: we can continue going along the same trajectory that we've

1155
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 1: been going on. And Bridge Colby, Sir, phenomenal as always,

1156
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 1: so so appreciative you joining me here on the Buck

1157
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 1: Sexton Show. Your book is great where thank you very much.

1158
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,880
Speaker 1: Tell people the book where can they go get it? Great?

1159
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 1: I really delight to be with you, Buck. The book

1160
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 1: is The Strategy of Denial, American Defense and Age of

1161
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:39,360
Speaker 1: Great Power Conflict that you can find it on Amazon,

1162
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 1: the Yale University website, and I'm on Twitter at Elbridge

1163
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 1: Colby UM. And uh, you know, look forward to hearing

1164
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 1: from any of the listeners who want to follow up. Yeah,

1165
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 1: please to tweet tweet questions and thoughts to Bridge and

1166
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: my friend. It's been twenty years. Here we are. It's

1167
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 1: good to talk to you about Thanks for being here,

1168
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 1: you too, Thanks man.